Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk

Recent approaches in computational modelling for controlling pathogen threats

In this review, we assess the status of computational modelling of pathogens. We focus on three disparate but interlinked research areas that produce models with very different spatial and temporal scope. First, we examine antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Many mechanisms of AMR are not well understood. As a result, it is hard to measure the current incidence of AMR, predict the future incidence, and design strategies to preserve existing antibiotic effectiveness. Next, we look at how to choose the finite number of bacterial strains that can be included in a vaccine. To do this, we need to understand what happens to vaccine and non-vaccine strains after vaccination programmes. Finally, we look at within-host modelling of antibody dynamics. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic produced huge amounts of antibody data, prompting improvements in this area of modelling. We finish by discussing the challenges that persist in understanding these complex biological systems.

An effective pan-serotype dengue vaccine and enhanced control strategies could help in reducing the severe dengue burden in Bangladesh-A perspective

Dengue is an important vector-borne disease occurring globally. Dengue virus (DENV) infection can result in a potentially life-threatening disease. To date, no DENV-specific antiviral treatment is available. Moreover, an equally effective pan-serotype dengue virus vaccine is not available. Recently, two DENV vaccines, Dengvaxia and Qdenga, were licensed for limited use. However, none of them have been approved in Bangladesh. DENV is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, and global warming caused by climate change favoring Aedes breeding plays an important role in increasing DENV infections in Bangladesh. Dengue is a serious public health concern in Bangladesh. In the year 2023, Bangladesh witnessed its largest dengue outbreak, with the highest number of dengue cases (n = 321,179) and dengue-related deaths (n = 1,705) in a single epidemic year. There is an increased risk of severe dengue in individuals with preexisting DENV-specific immunoglobulin G if the individuals become infected with different DENV serotypes. To date, vector control has remained the mainstay for controlling dengue; therefore, an immediate, strengthened, and effective vector control program is critical and should be regularly performed for controlling dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh. In addition, the use of DENV vaccine in curbing dengue epidemics in Bangladesh requires more consideration and judgment by the respective authority of Bangladesh. This review provides perspectives on the control and prevention of dengue outbreaks. We also discuss the challenges of DENV vaccine use to reduce dengue epidemics infection in Bangladesh.

Mechanisms of antibody-dependent enhancement of infectious disease

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infectious disease is a phenomenon whereby host antibodies increase the severity of an infection. It is well established in viral infections but ADE also has an underappreciated role during bacterial, fungal and parasitic infections. ADE can occur during both primary infections and re-infections with the same or a related pathogen; therefore, understanding the underlying mechanisms of ADE is critical for understanding the pathogenesis and progression of many infectious diseases. Here, we review the four distinct mechanisms by which antibodies increase disease severity during an infection. We discuss the most established mechanistic explanation for ADE, where cross-reactive, disease-enhancing antibodies bound to pathogens interact with Fc receptors, thereby enhancing pathogen entry or replication, ultimately increasing the total pathogen load. Additionally, we explore how some pathogenic antibodies can shield bacteria from complement-dependent killing, thereby enhancing bacterial survival. We interrogate the molecular mechanisms by which antibodies can amplify inflammation to drive severe disease, even in the absence of increased pathogen replication. We also examine emerging roles for autoantibodies in enhancing the pathogenesis of infectious diseases. Finally, we discuss how we can leverage these insights to improve vaccine design and future treatments for infectious diseases.

Inference of epidemic dynamics in the COVID-19 era and beyond

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the unprecedented volume and breadth of data generated during the pandemic, we review modern opportunities for analysis to address questions that emerge during a major modern epidemic. Following the broad chronology of insights required - from understanding initial dynamics to retrospective evaluation of interventions, we describe the theoretical foundations of each approach and the underlying intuition. Through a series of case studies, we illustrate real life applications, and discuss implications for future work.

The spectrum of health conditions in community-based cross-sectional surveys in Southeast Asia 2010-21: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Southeast Asia is undergoing an epidemiological transition with non-communicable illnesses becoming increasingly important, yet infectious diseases (tuberculosis, HIV, hepatitis B, malaria) remain widely prevalent in some populations, while emerging and zoonotic diseases threaten. There are also limited population-level estimates of many important heath conditions. This restricts evidence-based decision-making for disease control and prevention priorities. Cross-sectional surveys can be efficient epidemiological tools to measure the prevalence of a wide range of diseases, but no systematic assessment of their coverage of different health conditions has been produced for the region.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science Core Collection, and Global Index Medicus, and additionally Google Scholar. Our inclusion criteria were cross-sectional surveys conducted with community-based recruitment, in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand, published between January 1, 2010 and January 27, 2021, and reporting the prevalence of any health condition.

RESULTS

542 publications from 337 surveys were included. Non-communicable conditions (n = 205) were reported by more surveys than infectious conditions (n = 124). Disability (n = 49), self-report history of any disease or symptoms (n = 35), and self-perceived health status (n = 34), which reflect a holistic picture of health, were studied by many fewer surveys. In addition, 45 surveys studied symptomatic conditions which overlap between non-communicable and infectious conditions. The most surveyed conditions were undernutrition, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, intestinal parasites, malaria, anemia, diarrhea, fever, and acute respiratory infections. These conditions overlap with the most important causes of death and disability in the Global Burden of Disease study. However, other high-burden conditions (e.g. hearing loss, headache disorder, low back pain, chronic liver and kidney diseases, and cancers) were rarely studied.

CONCLUSION

There were relatively few recent surveys from which to estimate representative prevalences and trends of health conditions beyond those known to be high burden. Expanding the spectrum of health conditions in cross-sectional surveys could improve understanding of evolving disease patterns in the region.

Serotype-Specific Epidemiological Patterns of Inapparent versus Symptomatic Primary Dengue Virus Infections: A 17-year cohort study in Nicaragua

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem worldwide. Most primary infections with the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are inapparent; nonetheless, whether the distribution of symptomatic versus inapparent infections by serotype varies remains unknown. Here, we present (1) the evaluation of a multiplex DENV1-4 envelope domain III multiplex microsphere-based assay (EDIII-MMBA) to serotype inapparent primary infections and (2) its application leveraging 17 years of prospective sample collection from the Nicaraguan Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study (PDCS). First, we evaluated the performance of the EDIII-MMBA with samples characterized by RT-PCR or focus reduction neutralization test. Next, we analyzed 46% (N=574) of total inapparent primary DENV infections in the PDCS with the EDIII-MMBA to evaluate the epidemiology of inapparent infections. Remaining infections were inferred using stochastic imputation, taking year and neighborhood into account. Infection incidence and percentage of inapparent, symptomatic, and severe infections were analyzed by serotype. The EDIII-MMBA demonstrated excellent overall accuracy (100%, 95.8-100%) for serotyping symptomatic and inapparent primary DENV infections when evaluated against gold-standard serotyping methods. We found that a significant majority of primary infections were inapparent, with DENV3 exhibiting the highest likelihood of symptomatic and severe primary infections (Pooled OR compared to DENV1 = 2.13, 95% CI 1.28-3.56, and 6.75, 2.01-22.62, respectively), whereas DENV2 was similar to DENV1 in both analyses. Significant within- and between-year variation in serotype distribution between symptomatic and inapparent infections and circulation of serotypes undetected in symptomatic cases were observed in multiple years. Our study indicates that case surveillance skews the perceived epidemiological footprint of DENV. We reveal a more complex and intricate pattern of serotype distribution in inapparent infections. The significant differences in infection outcomes by serotype emphasizes the need for vaccines with balanced immunogenicity and efficacy across serotypes.

Evaluation of the effects of the Zika Virus-Immunoglobulin G+ complex on murine microglial cells

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil, ZIKV infections were linked to damage to the central nervous system (CNS) and congenital anomalies. Due to the virus's ability to cross the placenta and reach brain tissue, its effects become severe, leading to Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) and resulting in neuroinflammation, microglial activation, and secretion of neurotoxic factors. The presence of ZIKV triggers an inadequate fetal immune response, as the fetus only has the protection of maternal antibodies of the Immunoglobulin G (IgG) class, which are the only antibodies capable of crossing the placenta. Because of limited understanding regarding the long term consequences of ZIKV infection and the involvement of maternal antibodies, this study sought to assess the impact of the ZIKV + IgG⁺complex on murine microglial cells. The cells were exposed to ZIKV, IgG antibodies, and the ZIKV + IgG⁺complex for 24 and 72 h. Treatment-induced cytotoxic effects were evaluated using the cell viability assay, oxidative stress, and mitochondrial membrane potential. The findings indicated that IgG antibodies exhibit cytotoxic effects on microglia, whether alone or in the presence of ZIKV, leading to compromised cell viability, disrupted mitochondrial membrane potential, and heightened oxidative damage. Our conclusion is that IgG antibodies exert detrimental effects on microglia, triggering their activation and potentially disrupting the creation of a neurotoxic environment. Moreover, the presence of antibodies may correlate with an elevated risk of ZIKV-induced neuroinflammation, contributing to long-term CNS damage.

In vitro enhancement of Zika virus infection by preexisting West Nile virus antibodies in human plasma-derived immunoglobulins revealed after P2 binding site-specific enrichment

Human immunoglobulin preparations contain a diverse range of polyclonal antibodies that reflect past immune responses against pathogens encountered by the blood donor population. In this study, we examined a panel of intravenous immunoglobulins (IGIVs) manufactured over the past two decades (1998-2020) for their capacity to neutralize or enhance Zika virus (ZIKV) infection in vitro. These IGIVs were selected specifically based on their production dates in relation to the occurrences of two flavivirus outbreaks in the U.S.: the West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in 1999 and the ZIKV outbreak in 2015. As demonstrated by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) experiments, IGIVs made before the ZIKV outbreak already harbored antibodies that bind to various peptides across the envelope protein of ZIKV because of the WNV outbreak. Using phage display, the most dominant binding site was mapped precisely to the P2 peptide between residues 211 and 230 within domain II, where BF1176-56, an anti-ZIKV monoclonal antibody, also binds. When tested in permissive Vero E6 cells for ZIKV neutralization, the IGIVs, even after undergoing rigorous enrichment for P2 binding specificity, failed, as did BF1176-56. Meanwhile, BF1176-56 enhanced ZIKV infection in both FcγRII-expressing K562 cells and human peripheral blood mononuclear cells. However, for enhancement by the IGIVs to be detected in these cells, a substantial increase in their P2 binding specificity was required, thus linking the P2 site with ZIKV enhancement in vitro. Our findings warrant further study of the significance of elevated levels of anti-WNV antibodies in IGIVs, considering that various mechanisms operating in vivo may modulate ZIKV infection outcomes.IMPORTANCEWe investigated the capacity of intravenous immunoglobulins manufactured previously over two decades (1998-2020) to neutralize or enhance Zika virus infection in vitro. West Nile virus antibodies in IGIVs could not neutralize Zika virus initially; however, once the IGIVs were concentrated further, they enhanced its infection. These findings lay the groundwork for exploring how preexisting WNV antibodies in IGIVs could impact Zika infection, both in vitro and in vivo. Our observations are historically significant, since we tested a panel of IGIV lots that were carefully selected based on their production dates which covered two major flavivirus outbreaks in the U.S.: the WNV outbreak in 1999 and the ZIKV outbreak in 2015. These findings will facilitate our understanding of the interplay among closely related viral pathogens, particularly from a historical perspective regarding large blood donor populations. They should remain relevant for future outbreaks of emerging flaviviruses that may potentially affect vulnerable populations.

Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System - Puerto Rico, 2012-2022

Problem/Condition

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquitoborne viral illness worldwide and is endemic in Puerto Rico. Dengue's clinical spectrum can range from mild, undifferentiated febrile illness to hemorrhagic manifestations, shock, multiorgan failure, and death in severe cases. The disease presentation is nonspecific; therefore, various other illnesses (e.g., arboviral and respiratory pathogens) can cause similar clinical symptoms. Enhanced surveillance is necessary to determine disease prevalence, to characterize the epidemiology of severe disease, and to evaluate diagnostic and treatment practices to improve patient outcomes. The Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) was established to monitor trends of dengue and dengue-like acute febrile illnesses (AFIs), characterize the clinical course of disease, and serve as an early warning system for viral infections with epidemic potential.

Reporting Period

May 2012-December 2022.

Description of System

SEDSS conducts enhanced surveillance for dengue and other relevant AFIs in Puerto Rico. This report includes aggregated data collected from May 2012 through December 2022. SEDSS was launched in May 2012 with patients with AFIs from five health care facilities enrolled. The facilities included two emergency departments in tertiary acute care hospitals in the San Juan-Caguas-Guaynabo metropolitan area and Ponce, two secondary acute care hospitals in Carolina and Guayama, and one outpatient acute care clinic in Ponce. Patients arriving at any SEDSS site were eligible for enrollment if they reported having fever within the past 7 days. During the Zika epidemic (June 2016-June 2018), patients were eligible for enrollment if they had either rash and conjunctivitis, rash and arthralgia, or fever. Eligibility was expanded in April 2020 to include reported cough or shortness of breath within the past 14 days. Blood, urine, nasopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal specimens were collected at enrollment from all participants who consented. Diagnostic testing for dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1-4, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, influenza A and B viruses, SARS-CoV-2, and five other respiratory viruses was performed by the CDC laboratory in San Juan.

Results

During May 2012-December 2022, a total of 43,608 participants with diagnosed AFI were enrolled in SEDSS; a majority of participants (45.0%) were from Ponce. During the surveillance period, there were 1,432 confirmed or probable cases of dengue, 2,293 confirmed or probable cases of chikungunya, and 1,918 confirmed or probable cases of Zika. The epidemic curves of the three arboviruses indicate dengue is endemic; outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika were sporadic, with case counts peaking in late 2014 and 2016, respectively. The majority of commonly identified respiratory pathogens were influenza A virus (3,756), SARS-CoV-2 (1,586), human adenovirus (1,550), respiratory syncytial virus (1,489), influenza B virus (1,430), and human parainfluenza virus type 1 or 3 (1,401). A total of 5,502 participants had confirmed or probable arbovirus infection, 11,922 had confirmed respiratory virus infection, and 26,503 had AFI without any of the arboviruses or respiratory viruses examined.

Interpretation

Dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico; however, incidence rates varied widely during the reporting period, with the last notable outbreak occurring during 2012-2013. DENV-1 was the predominant virus during the surveillance period; sporadic cases of DENV-4 also were reported. Puerto Rico experienced large outbreaks of chikungunya that peaked in 2014 and of Zika that peaked in 2016; few cases of both viruses have been reported since. Influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus seasonality patterns are distinct, with respiratory syncytial virus incidence typically reaching its annual peak a few weeks before influenza A. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 led to a reduction in the circulation of other acute respiratory viruses.

Public Health Action

SEDSS is the only site-based enhanced surveillance system designed to gather information on AFI cases in Puerto Rico. This report illustrates that SEDSS can be adapted to detect dengue, Zika, chikungunya, COVID-19, and influenza outbreaks, along with other seasonal acute respiratory viruses, underscoring the importance of recognizing signs and symptoms of relevant diseases and understanding transmission dynamics among these viruses. This report also describes fluctuations in disease incidence, highlighting the value of active surveillance, testing for a panel of acute respiratory viruses, and the importance of flexible and responsive surveillance systems in addressing evolving public health challenges. Various vector control strategies and vaccines are being considered or implemented in Puerto Rico, and data from ongoing trials and SEDSS might be integrated to better understand epidemiologic factors underlying transmission and risk mitigation approaches. Data from SEDSS might guide sampling strategies and implementation of future trials to prevent arbovirus transmission, particularly during the expansion of SEDSS throughout the island to improve geographic representation.

Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Envelope-dimer epitope-like broadly protective antibodies against dengue in children following natural infection and vaccination

Cross-reactive antibodies (Abs) to epitopes that span envelope proteins on the virion surface are hypothesized to protect against dengue. Here, we measured Abs targeting the quaternary envelope dimer epitope (EDE) as well as neutralizing and binding Abs and evaluate their association with dengue virus (DENV) infection, vaccine response, and disease outcome in dengue vaccinated and unvaccinated children (n=252) within a longitudinal cohort in Cebu, Philippines (n=2,996). Abs targeting EDE were prevalent and strongly associated with broad neutralization of DENV1-4 in those with baseline multitypic immunity. Subsequent natural infection and vaccination boosted EDE-like, neutralizing, and binding Abs. EDE-like Abs were associated with reduced dengue risk and mediated the protective effect of binding and neutralizing Abs on symptomatic and severe dengue. Thus, Abs targeting quaternary epitopes help explain broad cross protection in those with multiple prior DENV exposures, making them useful for evaluation and development of future vaccines and therapeutics.

Functional genomics screens reveal a role for TBC1D24 and SV2B in antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue virus infection

Dengue virus (DENV) can hijack non-neutralizing IgG antibodies to facilitate its uptake into target cells expressing Fc gamma receptors (FcgR) - a process known as antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection. Beyond a requirement for FcgR, host dependency factors for this non-canonical infection route remain unknown. To identify cellular factors exclusively required for ADE, here, we performed CRISPR knockout screens in an in vitro system permissive to infection only in the presence of IgG antibodies. Validating our approach, a top hit was FcgRIIa, which facilitates binding and internalization of IgG-bound DENV but is not required for canonical infection. Additionally, we identified host factors with no previously described role in DENV infection, including TBC1D24 and SV2B, both of which have known functions in regulated secretion. Using genetic knockout and trans-complemented cells, we validated a functional requirement for these host factors in ADE assays performed with monoclonal antibodies and polyclonal sera in multiple cell lines and using all four DENV serotypes. We show that knockout of TBC1D24 or SV2B impaired binding of IgG-DENV complexes to cells without affecting FcgRIIa expression levels. Thus, we identify cellular factors beyond FcgR that are required for ADE of DENV infection. Our findings represent a first step towards advancing fundamental knowledge behind the biology of ADE that can ultimately be exploited to inform vaccination and therapeutic approaches.

Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection even in previously exposed individuals. In addition, for some pathogens, such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains unclear whether the antigenic distances between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalizations across years. Here, we develop a framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterization of viruses with details on hospitalized cases from 21 years of dengue surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand, to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We found that the risk of hospitalization depended on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximized at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest that immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk and provide a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

Epitope(s) involving amino acids of the fusion loop of Japanese encephalitis virus envelope protein is(are) important to elicit protective immunity

Dengue vaccine candidates have been shown to improve vaccine safety and efficacy by altering the residues or accessibility of the fusion loop on the virus envelope protein domain II (DIIFL) in an ex vivo animal study. The current study aimed to comprehensively investigate the impact of DIIFL mutations on the antigenicity, immunogenicity, and protective efficacy of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) virus-like particles (VLPs) in mice. We found the DIIFL G106K/L107D (KD) and W101G/G106K/L107D (GKD) mutations altered the binding activity of JEV VLP to cross-reactive monoclonal antibodies but had no effect on their ability to elicit total IgG antibodies in mice. However, JEV VLPs with KD or GKD mutations induced significantly less neutralizing antibodies against JEV. Only 46% and 31% of the KD and GKD VLPs-immunized mice survived compared to 100% of the wild-type (WT) VLP-immunized mice after a lethal JEV challenge. In passive protection experiments, naïve mice that received sera from WT VLP-immunized mice exhibited a significantly higher survival rate of 46.7% compared to those receiving sera from KD VLP- and GKD VLP-immunized mice (6.7% and 0%, respectively). This study demonstrated that JEV DIIFL is crucial for eliciting potently neutralizing antibodies and protective immunity against JEV.

IMPORTANCE

Introduction of mutations into the fusion loop is one potential strategy for generating safe dengue and Zika vaccines by reducing the risk of severe dengue following subsequent infections, and for constructing live-attenuated vaccine candidates against newly emerging Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) or Japanese encephalitis (JE) serocomplex virus. The monoclonal antibody studies indicated the fusion loop of JE serocomplex viruses primarily comprised non-neutralizing epitopes. However, the present study demonstrates that the JEV fusion loop plays a critical role in eliciting protective immunity in mice. Modifications to the fusion loop of JE serocomplex viruses might negatively affect vaccine efficacy compared to dengue and zika serocomplex viruses. Further studies are required to assess the impact of mutant fusion loop encoded by commonly used JEV vaccine strains on vaccine efficacy or safety after subsequent dengue virus infection.

Reconstructed influenza A/H3N2 infection histories reveal variation in incidence and antibody dynamics over the life course

Humans experience many influenza infections over their lives, resulting in complex and varied immunological histories. Although experimental and quantitative analyses have improved our understanding of the immunological processes defining an individual's antibody repertoire, how these within-host processes are linked to population-level influenza epidemiology remains unclear. Here, we used a multi-level mathematical model to jointly infer antibody dynamics and individual-level lifetime influenza A/H3N2 infection histories for 1,130 individuals in Guangzhou, China, using 67,683 haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay measurements against 20 A/H3N2 strains from repeat serum samples collected between 2009 and 2015. These estimated infection histories allowed us to reconstruct historical seasonal influenza patterns and to investigate how influenza incidence varies over time, space and age in this population. We estimated median annual influenza infection rates to be approximately 18% from 1968 to 2015, but with substantial variation between years. 88% of individuals were estimated to have been infected at least once during the study period (2009-2015), and 20% were estimated to have three or more infections in that time. We inferred decreasing infection rates with increasing age, and found that annual attack rates were highly correlated across all locations, regardless of their distance, suggesting that age has a stronger impact than fine-scale spatial effects in determining an individual's antibody profile. Finally, we reconstructed each individual's expected antibody profile over their lifetime and inferred an age-stratified relationship between probability of infection and HI titre. Our analyses show how multi-strain serological panels provide rich information on long term, epidemiological trends, within-host processes and immunity when analyzed using appropriate inference methods, and adds to our understanding of the life course epidemiology of influenza A/H3N2.

Obesity is associated with increased pediatric dengue virus infection and disease: A 9-year cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua

Background

Obesity is on the rise globally in adults and children, including in tropical areas where diseases such as dengue have a substantial burden, particularly in children. Obesity impacts the risk of severe dengue disease; however, the impact on dengue virus (DENV) infection and dengue cases remains an open question.

Methods

We used 9 years of data from 5,940 children in the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to examine whether pediatric obesity is associated with increased susceptibility to DENV infection and symptomatic presentation. Analysis was performed using Generalized Estimating Equations adjusted for age, sex, and pre-infection DENV antibody titers.

Results

From 2011 to 2019, children contributed 26,273 person-years of observation, and we observed an increase in the prevalence of overweight (from 12% to 17%) and obesity (from 7% to 13%). There were 1,682 DENV infections and 476 dengue cases in the study population. Compared to participants with normal weight, participants with obesity had higher odds of DENV infection (Adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.42) and higher odds of dengue disease given infection (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.15-2.19). Children with obesity infected with DENV showed increased odds of presenting fever (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.05-2.02), headache (aOR 1.51, 95% CI 1.07-2.14), and rash (aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.49-3.44) when compared with children with normal weight.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that obesity is associated with increased susceptibility to DENV infection and dengue cases in children, independently of age, sex, and pre-infection DENV antibody titers.

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Frequency of Dengue Virus-Specific T Cells is related to Infection Outcome in Endemic Settings

Dengue is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions globally and leads to a considerable burden of disease. Annually, dengue virus (DENV) causes up to 400 million infections, of which ~25% present with clinical symptoms ranging from mild to fatal. Despite its significance as a growing public health concern, the development of effective DENV vaccines has been highly challenging. One of the reasons is the lack of comprehensive understanding of the influence exerted by prior DENV infections and immune responses with cross-reactive properties. To investigate this, we collected samples from a pediatric cohort study in dengue-endemic Managua, Nicaragua. We characterized T cell responses in a group of 71 healthy children who had previously experienced one or more natural DENV infections and who, within one year after sample collection, had a subsequent DENV infection that was either symptomatic (n=25) or inapparent (n=46, absence of clinical disease). Thus, our study was designed to investigate the impact of pre-existing DENV specific T cell responses on the clinical outcomes of subsequent DENV infection. We assessed the DENV specific T cell responses using an activation-induced marker assay (AIM). Children who had experienced only one prior DENV infection displayed heterogeneous DENV specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell frequencies. In contrast, children who had experienced two or more DENV infections showed significantly higher frequencies of DENV specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that were associated with inapparent as opposed to symptomatic outcomes in the subsequent DENV infection. Taken together, these findings demonstrate the protective role of DENV specific T cells against symptomatic DENV infection and constitute an advancement toward identifying protective immune correlates against dengue fever and clinical disease.

Human coronavirus OC43-elicited CD4+ T cells protect against SARS-CoV-2 in HLA transgenic mice

SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells are detected in some healthy unexposed individuals. Human studies indicate these T cells could be elicited by the common cold coronavirus OC43. To directly test this assumption and define the role of OC43-elicited T cells that are cross-reactive with SARS-CoV-2, we develop a model of sequential infections with OC43 followed by SARS-CoV-2 in HLA-B*0702 and HLA-DRB1*0101 Ifnar1-/- transgenic mice. We find that OC43 infection can elicit polyfunctional CD8+ and CD4+ effector T cells that cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 peptides. Furthermore, pre-exposure to OC43 reduces subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease in the lung for a short-term in HLA-DRB1*0101 Ifnar1-/- transgenic mice, and a longer-term in HLA-B*0702 Ifnar1-/- transgenic mice. Depletion of CD4+ T cells in HLA-DRB1*0101 Ifnar1-/- transgenic mice with prior OC43 exposure results in increased viral burden in the lung but no change in virus-induced lung damage following infection with SARS-CoV-2 (versus CD4+ T cell-sufficient mice), demonstrating that the OC43-elicited SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive T cell-mediated cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2 is partially dependent on CD4+ T cells. These findings contribute to our understanding of the origin of pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells and their effects on SARS-CoV-2 clinical outcomes, and also carry implications for development of broadly protective betacoronavirus vaccines.

Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018-2019

We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018-2019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%-20% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities.

Protection against symptomatic dengue infection by neutralizing antibodies varies by infection history and infecting serotype

Dengue viruses (DENV1-4) are the most prevalent arboviruses in humans and a major public health concern. Understanding immune mechanisms that modulate DENV infection outcome is critical for vaccine development. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are an essential component of the protective immune response, yet their measurement often relies on a single cellular substrate and partially mature virions, which does not capture the full breadth of neutralizing activity and may lead to biased estimations of nAb potency. Here, we analyze 125 samples collected after one or more DENV infections but prior to subsequent symptomatic or inapparent DENV1, DENV2, or DENV3 infections from a long-standing pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. By assessing nAb responses using Vero cells with or without DC-SIGN and with mature or partially mature virions, we find that nAb potency and the protective NT50 cutoff are greatly influenced by cell substrate and virion maturation state. Additionally, the correlation between nAb titer and protection from disease depends on prior infection history and infecting serotype. Finally, we uncover variations in nAb composition that contribute to protection from symptomatic infection differently after primary and secondary prior infection. These findings have important implications for identifying antibody correlates of protection for vaccines and natural infections.

Household immunity and individual risk of infection with dengue virus in a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

Although it is known that household infections drive the transmission of dengue virus (DENV), it is unclear how household composition and the immune status of inhabitants affect the individual risk of infection. Most population-based studies to date have focused on paediatric cohorts because more severe forms of dengue mainly occur in children, and the role of adults in dengue transmission is understudied. Here we analysed data from a multigenerational cohort study of 470 households, comprising 2,860 individuals, in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand, to evaluate risk factors for DENV infection. Using a gradient-boosted regression model trained on annual haemagglutination inhibition antibody titre inputs, we identified 1,049 infections, 90% of which were subclinical. By analysing imputed infections, we found that individual antibody titres, household composition and antibody titres of other members in the same household affect an individual's risk of DENV infection. Those individuals living in households with high average antibody titres, or households with more adults, had a reduced risk of infection. We propose that herd immunity to dengue acts at the household level and may provide insight into the drivers of the recent change in the shifting age distribution of dengue cases in Thailand.

Integrated control strategies for dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya virus infections

Arboviruses are a major threat to public health in tropical regions, encompassing over 534 distinct species, with 134 capable of causing diseases in humans. These viruses are transmitted through arthropod vectors that cause symptoms such as fever, headache, joint pains, and rash, in addition to more serious cases that can lead to death. Among the arboviruses, dengue virus stands out as the most prevalent, annually affecting approximately 16.2 million individuals solely in the Americas. Furthermore, the re-emergence of the Zika virus and the recurrent outbreaks of chikungunya in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, with one million cases reported annually, underscore the urgency of addressing this public health challenge. In this manuscript we discuss the epidemiology, viral structure, pathogenicity and integrated control strategies to combat arboviruses, and the most used tools, such as vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, treatment, etc., in addition to presenting future perspectives for the control of arboviruses. Currently, specific medications for treating arbovirus infections are lacking, and symptom management remains the primary approach. However, promising advancements have been made in certain treatments, such as Chloroquine, Niclosamide, and Isatin derivatives, which have demonstrated notable antiviral properties against these arboviruses in vitro and in vivo experiments. Additionally, various strategies within vector control approaches have shown significant promise in reducing arbovirus transmission rates. These encompass public education initiatives, targeted insecticide applications, and innovative approaches like manipulating mosquito bacterial symbionts, such as Wolbachia. In conclusion, combatting the global threat of arbovirus diseases needs a comprehensive approach integrating antiviral research, vaccination, and vector control. The continued efforts of research communities, alongside collaborative partnerships with public health authorities, are imperative to effectively address and mitigate the impact of these arboviral infections on public health worldwide.

Antibody-mediated SARS-CoV-2 entry in cultured cells

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters host cells by first engaging its cellular receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to induce conformational changes in the virus-encoded spike protein and fusion between the viral and target cell membranes. Here, we report that certain monoclonal neutralizing antibodies against distinct epitopic regions of the receptor-binding domain of the spike can replace ACE2 to serve as a receptor and efficiently support membrane fusion and viral infectivity in vitro. These receptor-like antibodies can function in the form of a complex of their soluble immunoglobulin G with Fc-gamma receptor I, a chimera of their antigen-binding fragment with the transmembrane domain of ACE2 or a membrane-bound B cell receptor, indicating that ACE2 and its specific interaction with the spike protein are dispensable for SARS-CoV-2 entry. These results suggest that antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 may help expand the viral tropism to otherwise nonpermissive cell types with potential implications for viral transmission and pathogenesis.

Primary exposure to Zika virus increases risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4 but not serotype 1

Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre-existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.

Flying under the radar - impact and factors influencing asymptomatic DENV infections

The clinical outcome of DENV and other Flaviviruses infections represents a spectrum of severity that ranges from mild manifestations to severe disease, which can ultimately lead to death. Nonetheless, most of these infections result in an asymptomatic outcome that may play an important role in the persistent circulation of these viruses. Also, although little is known about the mechanisms that lead to these asymptomatic infections, they are likely the result of a complex interplay between viral and host factors. Specific characteristics of the infecting viral strain, such as its replicating efficiency, coupled with host factors, like gene expression of key molecules involved in the immune response or in the protection against disease, are among crucial factors to study. This review revisits recent data on factors that may contribute to the asymptomatic outcome of the world's widespread DENV, highlighting the importance of silent infections in the transmission of this pathogen and the immune status of the host.

Effects of boosting and waning in highly exposed populations on dengue epidemic dynamics

Sequential infection with multiple dengue virus (DENV) serotypes is thought to induce enduring protection against dengue disease. However, long-term antibody waning has been observed after repeated DENV infection. Here, we provide evidence that highly immune Nicaraguan children and adults (n = 4478) experience boosting and waning of antibodies during and after major Zika and dengue epidemics. We develop a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS-type) model that tracks immunity by titer rather than number of infections to show that boosts in highly immune individuals can contribute to herd immunity, delaying their susceptibility to transmissible infection. In contrast, our model of lifelong immunity in highly immune individuals, as previously assumed, results in complete disease eradication after introduction. Periodic epidemics under this scenario can only be sustained with a constant influx of infected individuals into the population or a high basic reproductive number. We also find that Zika virus infection can boost DENV immunity and produce delays and then surges in dengue epidemics, as observed with real epidemiological data. This work provides insight into factors shaping periodicity in dengue incidence and may inform vaccine efforts to maintain population immunity.

Homotypic antibodies target novel E glycoprotein domains after natural DENV 3 infection/vaccination

The envelope (E) glycoprotein is the primary target of type-specific (TS) neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) after infection with any of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4). nAbs can be elicited to distinct structural E domains (EDs) I, II, or III. However, the relative contribution of these domain-specific antibodies is unclear. To identify the primary DENV3 nAb targets in sera after natural infection or vaccination, chimeric DENV1 recombinant encoding DENV3 EDI, EDII, or EDIII were generated. DENV3 EDII is the principal target of TS polyclonal nAb responses and encodes two or more neutralizing epitopes. In contrast, some were individuals vaccinated with a DENV3 monovalent vaccine-elicited serum TS nAbs targeting each ED in a subject-dependent fashion, with an emphasis on EDI and EDIII. Vaccine responses were also sensitive to DENV3 genotypic variation. This DENV1/3 panel allows the measurement of serum ED TS nAbs, revealing differences in TS nAb immunity after natural infection or vaccination.

Inferring the proportion of undetected cholera infections from serological and clinical surveillance in an immunologically naive population

Most infections with pandemic Vibrio cholerae are thought to result in subclinical disease and are not captured by surveillance. Previous estimates of the ratio of infections to clinical cases have varied widely (2 to 100). Understanding cholera epidemiology and immunity relies on the ability to translate between numbers of clinical cases and the underlying number of infections in the population. We estimated the infection incidence during the first months of an outbreak in a cholera-naive population using a Bayesian vibriocidal antibody titer decay model combining measurements from a representative serosurvey and clinical surveillance data. 3,880 suspected cases were reported in Grande Saline, Haiti, between 20 October 2010 and 6 April 2011 (clinical attack rate 18.4%). We found that more than 52.6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49.4-55.7) of the population ≥2 years showed serologic evidence of infection, with a lower infection rate among children aged 2-4 years (35.5%; 95%CrI 24.2-51.6) compared with people ≥5 years (53.1%; 95%CrI 49.4-56.4). This estimated infection rate, nearly three times the clinical attack rate, with underdetection mainly seen in those ≥5 years, has likely impacted subsequent outbreak dynamics. Our findings show how seroincidence estimates improve understanding of links between cholera burden, transmission dynamics and immunity.

Dengue Vaccination: Towards a New Dawn of Curbing Dengue Infection

Dengue is an infectious disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) and is a serious global burden. Antibody-dependent enhancement and the ability of DENV to infect immune cells, along with other factors, lead to fatal Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever and Dengue Shock Syndrome. This necessitates the development of a robust and efficient vaccine but vaccine development faces a number of hurdles. In this review, we look at the epidemiology, genome structure and cellular targets of DENV and elaborate upon the immune responses generated by human immune system against DENV infection. The review further sheds light on various challenges in development of a potent vaccine against DENV which is followed by presenting a current account of different vaccines which are being developed or have been licensed.

The association of neutralizing antibodies with protection against symptomatic dengue virus infection varies by serotype, prior infection history, and assay condition

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) are the most prevalent arboviruses in humans and a major public health concern worldwide. Understanding immune mechanisms that modulate DENV infection outcome is critical for epidemic preparedness and development of a safe and effective vaccine. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are an essential component of the protective response, yet their measurement often relies on a single cellular substrate and partially mature virions, which do not capture the full breadth of neutralizing activity and may lead to biased estimations of nAb potency. Here, we investigated the characteristics of nAbs associated with protection against dengue cases using samples collected after one or more DENV infections but prior to subsequent symptomatic or inapparent DENV1, DENV2, or DENV3 infections from a long- standing pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. By assessing nAb responses using Vero cells with or without the attachment factor DC-SIGN and with mature or partially mature virions, we found that nAb potency and the protective NT 50 cutoff were greatly influenced by cell substrate and virion maturation state. Additionally, the correlation between nAb titer and protection from disease depended on an individual's prior infection history and the subsequent infecting DENV serotype. Finally, we uncovered variations in nAbs composition that contributed to protection from symptomatic DENV infection differently after primary and secondary prior infection. These findings have important implications for identifying antibody correlates of protection in the context of vaccines and natural infections.

Maternally derived antibody titer dynamics and risk of hospitalized infant dengue disease

Infants less than 1 y of age experience high rates of dengue disease in dengue virus (DENV) endemic countries. This burden is commonly attributed to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), whereby concentrations of maternally derived DENV antibodies become subneutralizing, and infection-enhancing. Understanding antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk represents a significant challenge due to the dynamic nature of antibodies and their imperfect measurement processes. Further, key uncertainties exist regarding the impact of long-term shifts in birth rates, population-level infection risks, and maternal ages on the DENV immune landscape of newborns and their subsequent risks of severe dengue disease in infancy. Here, we analyze DENV antibody data from two infant cohorts (N = 142 infants with 605 blood draws) and 40 y of infant dengue hospitalization data from Thailand. We use mathematical models to reconstruct maternally derived antibody dynamics, accounting for discretized measurement processes and limits of assay detection. We then explore possible antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk and their ability to reconstruct the observed age distribution of hospitalized infant dengue cases. We find that ADE mechanisms are best able to reconstruct the observed data. Finally, we describe how the shifting epidemiology of dengue in Thailand, combined with declining birth rates, have decreased the absolute risk of infant dengue disease by 88% over a 40-y period while having minimal impact on the mean age of infant hospitalized dengue disease.

Single B cell transcriptomics identifies multiple isotypes of broadly neutralizing antibodies against flaviviruses

Sequential dengue virus (DENV) infections often generate neutralizing antibodies against all four DENV serotypes and sometimes, Zika virus. Characterizing cross-flavivirus broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) responses can inform countermeasures that avoid enhancement of infection associated with non-neutralizing antibodies. Here, we used single cell transcriptomics to mine the bnAb repertoire following repeated DENV infections. We identified several new bnAbs with comparable or superior breadth and potency to known bnAbs, and with distinct recognition determinants. Unlike all known flavivirus bnAbs, which are IgG1, one newly identified cross-flavivirus bnAb (F25.S02) was derived from IgA1. Both IgG1 and IgA1 versions of F25.S02 and known bnAbs displayed neutralizing activity, but only IgG1 enhanced infection in monocytes expressing IgG and IgA Fc receptors. Moreover, IgG-mediated enhancement of infection was inhibited by IgA1 versions of bnAbs. We demonstrate a role for IgA in flavivirus infection and immunity with implications for vaccine and therapeutic strategies.

Dengue virus serotype 2 genotype III evolution during the 2019 outbreak in Mato Grosso, Midwestern Brazil

DENV-2 was the main responsible for a 70% increase in dengue incidence in Brazil during 2019. That year, our metagenomic study by Illumina NextSeq on serum samples from acute febrile patients (n = 92) with suspected arbovirus infection, sampled in 22 cities of the state of Mato Grosso (MT), in the middle west of Brazil, revealed eight complete genomes and two near-complete sequences of DENV-2 genotype III, one Human parvovirus B19 genotype I (5,391 nt) and one Coxsackievirus A6 lineage D (4,514 nt). These DENV-2 sequences share the aminoacidic identities of BR4 lineage on E protein domains I, II and III, and were included in a clade with sequences of the same lineage circulating in the southeast of Brazil in the same year. Nevertheless, 11/34 non-synonymous mutations are unique to three strains inthis study, distributed in the E (n = 6), NS3 (n = 2) and NS5 (n = 3) proteins. Other 14 aa changes on C (n = 1), E (n = 3), NS1 (n = 2), NS2A (n = 1) and NS5 (n = 7) were first reported in a genotype III lineage, having been already reported only in other DENV-2 genotypes. All 10 sequences have mutations in the NS5 protein (14 different aa changes). Nine E protein aa changes found in two sequences, six of which are unique, are in the ectodomain; where the E:M272T change is on the hinge of the E protein at domain II, in a region critical for the anchoring to the host cell receptor. The NS5:G81R mutation, in the methyltransferase domain, was found in one strain of this study. Altogether, these data points to an important evolution of DENV-2 genotype III lineage BR4 during this outbreak in 2019 in MT. Genomic surveillance is essential to detect virus etiology and evolution, possibly related to immune evasion and viral fitness changes leading to future novel outbreaks.

Blockade-of-Binding Activities toward Envelope-Associated, Type-Specific Epitopes as a Correlative Marker for Dengue Virus-Neutralizing Antibody

Humans infected with dengue virus (DENV) acquire long-term protection against the infecting serotype, whereas cross-protection against other serotypes is short-lived. Long-term protection induced by low levels of type-specific neutralizing antibodies can be assessed using the virus-neutralizing antibody test. However, this test is laborious and time-consuming. In this study, a blockade-of-binding enzyme-linked immunoassay was developed to assess antibody activity by using a set of neutralizing anti-E monoclonal antibodies and blood samples from dengue virus-infected or -immunized macaques. Diluted blood samples were incubated with plate-bound dengue virus particles before the addition of an enzyme-conjugated antibody specific to the epitope of interest. Based on blocking reference curves constructed using autologous purified antibodies, sample blocking activity was determined as the relative concentration of unconjugated antibody that resulted in the same percent signal reduction. In separate DENV-1-, -2-, -3-, and -4-related sets of samples, moderate to strong correlations of the blocking activity with neutralizing antibody titers were found with the four type-specific antibodies 1F4, 3H5, 8A1, and 5H2, respectively. Significant correlations were observed for single samples taken 1 month after infection as well as samples drawn before and at various time points after infection/immunization. Similar testing using a cross-reactive EDE-1 antibody revealed a moderate correlation between the blocking activity and the neutralizing antibody titer only for the DENV-2-related set. The potential usefulness of the blockade-of-binding activity as a correlative marker of neutralizing antibodies against dengue viruses needs to be validated in humans. IMPORTANCE This study describes a blockade-of-binding assay for the determination of antibodies that recognize a selected set of serotype-specific or group-reactive epitopes in the envelope of dengue virus. By employing blood samples collected from dengue virus-infected or -immunized macaques, moderate to strong correlations of the epitope-blocking activities with the virus-neutralizing antibody titers were observed with serotype-specific blocking activities for each of the four dengue serotypes. This simple, rapid, and less laborious method should be useful for the evaluation of antibody responses to dengue virus infection and may serve as, or be a component of, an in vitro correlate of protection against dengue in the future.

Dynamics of Anti-influenza Mucosal IgA Over a Season in a Cohort of Individuals Living or Working in a Long-term Care Facility

BACKGROUND

Serological surveys are used to ascertain influenza infection and immunity, but evidence for the utility of mucosal immunoglobulin A (IgA) as a correlate of infection or protection is limited.

METHODS

We performed influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance on 220 individuals living or working in a retirement community in Gainesville, Florida from January to May 2018, and took pre- and postseason nasal samples of 11 individuals with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed influenza infection and 60 randomly selected controls. Mucosal IgA against 10 strains of influenza was measured from nasal samples.

RESULTS

Overall, 28.2% and 11.3% of individuals experienced a 2-fold and 4-fold rise, respectively, in mucosal IgA to at least 1 influenza strain. Individuals with PCR-confirmed influenza A had significantly lower levels of preseason IgA to influenza A. Influenza-associated respiratory illness was associated with a higher rise in mucosal IgA to influenza strains of the same subtype, and H3N2-associated respiratory illness was associated with a higher rise in mucosal IgA to other influenza A strains.

CONCLUSIONS

By comparing individuals with and without influenza illness, we demonstrated that mucosal IgA is a correlate of influenza infection. There was evidence for cross-reactivity in mucosal IgA across influenza A subtypes.

Antigenic diversity and dengue disease risk

Many pathogens continuously change their protein structure in response to immune-driven selection, resulting in weakened protection. In addition, for some pathogens such as dengue virus, poorly targeted immunity is associated with increased risk of severe disease, through a mechanism known as antibody-dependent enhancement. However, it remains a mystery whether the antigenic distance between an individual's first infection and subsequent exposures dictate disease risk, explaining the observed large-scale differences in dengue hospitalisations across years. Here we develop an inferential framework that combines detailed antigenic and genetic characterisation of viruses, and hospitalised cases from 21 years of surveillance in Bangkok, Thailand to identify the role of the antigenic profile of circulating viruses in determining disease risk. We find that the risk of hospitalisation depends on both the specific order of infecting serotypes and the antigenic distance between an individual's primary and secondary infections, with risk maximised at intermediate antigenic distances. These findings suggest immune imprinting helps determine dengue disease risk, and provides a pathway to monitor the changing risk profile of populations and to quantifying risk profiles of candidate vaccines.

serosim: An R package for simulating serological data arising from vaccination, epidemiological and antibody kinetics processes

serosim is an open-source R package designed to aid inference from serological studies, by simulating data arising from user-specified vaccine and antibody kinetics processes using a random effects model. Serological data are used to assess population immunity by directly measuring individuals' antibody titers. They uncover locations and/or populations which are susceptible and provide evidence of past infection or vaccination to help inform public health measures and surveillance. Both serological data and new analytical techniques used to interpret them are increasingly widespread. This creates a need for tools to simulate serological studies and the processes underlying observed titer values, as this will enable researchers to identify best practices for serological study design, and provide a standardized framework to evaluate the performance of different inference methods. serosim allows users to specify and adjust model inputs representing underlying processes responsible for generating the observed titer values like time-varying patterns of infection and vaccination, population demography, immunity and antibody kinetics, and serological sampling design in order to best represent the population and disease system(s) of interest. This package will be useful for planning sampling design of future serological studies, understanding determinants of observed serological data, and validating the accuracy and power of new statistical methods.

DENV-specific IgA contributes protective and non-pathologic function during antibody-dependent enhancement of DENV infection

Dengue represents a growing public health burden worldwide, accounting for approximately 100 million symptomatic cases and tens of thousands of fatalities yearly. Prior infection with one serotype of dengue virus (DENV) is the greatest known risk factor for severe disease upon secondary infection with a heterologous serotype, a risk which increases as serotypes co-circulate in endemic regions. This disease risk is thought to be mediated by IgG-isotype antibodies raised during a primary infection, which poorly neutralize heterologous DENV serotypes and instead opsonize virions for uptake by FcγR-bearing cells. This antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection leads to a larger proportion of susceptible cells infected, higher viremia and greater immunopathology. We have previously characterized the induction of a serum IgA response, along with the typical IgM and IgG responses, during dengue infection, and have shown that DENV-reactive IgA can neutralize DENV and competitively antagonize IgG-mediated ADE. Here, we evaluate the potential for IgA itself to cause ADE. We show that IgG, but not IgA, mediated ADE of infection in cells expressing both FcαR and FcγRs. IgG-mediated ADE stimulated significantly higher pro-inflammatory cytokine production by primary human macrophages, while IgA did not affect, or slightly suppressed, this production. Mechanistically, we show that DENV/IgG immune complexes bind susceptible cells significantly more efficiently than DENV/IgA complexes or virus alone. Finally, we show that over the course of primary dengue infection, the expression of FcγRI (CD64) increases during the period of acute viremia, while FcγRIIa (CD32) and FcαR (CD89) expression decreases, thereby further limiting the ability of IgA to facilitate ADE in the presence of DENV. Overall, these data illustrate the distinct protective role of IgA during ADE of dengue infection and highlight the potential therapeutic and prognostic value of DENV-specific IgA.

A stochastic B cell affinity maturation model to characterize mechanisms of protection for tetravalent dengue vaccine constructs

Dengue annually infects millions of people from a regionally and seasonally varying dengue virus population circulating as four distinct serotypes. Effective protection against dengue infection and disease requires tetravalent vaccine formulations to stimulate a balanced protective immune response to all four serotypes. However, this has been a challenge to achieve, and several clinical trials with different leading vaccine candidates have demonstrated unbalanced replication and interference of interindividual serotype components, leading to low efficacy and enhanced disease severity for dengue-naïve populations. Production of serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies is largely viewed as a correlate of protection against severe dengue disease. However, the underlying mechanisms that lead to these protective immune responses are not clearly elucidated. In this work, using a stochastic model of B cell affinity maturation, we tested different live-attenuated vaccine constructs with varied viral replication rates and contrasted the initiation and progress of adaptive immune responses during tetravalent vaccination and after dengue virus challenge. Comparison of our model simulations across different disease-severity levels suggested that individual production of high levels of serotype-specific antibodies together with a lower cross-reactive antibody are better correlates for protection. Furthermore, evolution of these serotype-specific antibodies was dependent on the percent of viral attenuation in the vaccine, and production of initial B cell and T cell populations pre- and post-secondary dengue infection was crucial in providing protective immunity for dengue-naïve populations. Furthermore, contrasting disease severity with respect to different dengue serotypes, our model simulations showed that tetravalent vaccines fare better against DENV-4 serotype when compared to other serotypes.

Insights into dengue immunity from vaccine trials

The quest for an effective dengue vaccine has culminated in two approved vaccines and another that has completed phase 3 clinical trials. However, shortcomings exist in each, suggesting that the knowledge on dengue immunity used to develop these vaccines was incomplete. Vaccine trial findings could refine our understanding of dengue immunity, because these are experimentally derived, placebo-controlled data. Results from these trials suggest that neutralizing antibody titers alone are insufficient to inform protection against symptomatic infection, implicating a role for cellular immunity in protection. These findings have relevance for both future dengue vaccine development and application of current vaccines for maximal public health benefit.

Applying a multi-strain dengue model to epidemics data

Dengue disease transmission is a complex vector-borne disease, mainly due to the co-circulation of four serotypes of the virus. Mathematical models have proved to be a useful tool to understand the complexity of this disease. In this work, we extend the model studied by Esteva et al., 2003, originally proposed for two serotypes, to four circulating serotypes. Using epidemic data of dengue fever in Iquitos (Peru) and San Juan (Puerto Rico), we estimate numerically the co-circulation parameter values for selected outbreaks using a bootstrap method, and we also obtained the Basic Reproduction Number, R₀, for each serotype, using both analytical calculations and numerical simulations. Our results indicate that the impact of co-circulation of serotypes in population dynamics of dengue infection is such that there is a reduced effect from DENV-3 to DENV-4 in comparison to no-cross effect for epidemics in Iquitos. Concerning San Juan epidemics, also comparing to no-cross effect, we also observed a reduced effect from the predominant serotype DENV-3 to both DENV-2 and DENV-1 epidemics neglecting the very small number of cases of DENV-4.

Resurgence of Omicron BA.2 in SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive Hong Kong

Hong Kong experienced a surge of Omicron BA.2 infections in early 2022, resulting in one of the highest per-capita death rates of COVID-19. The outbreak occurred in a dense population with low immunity towards natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, high vaccine hesitancy in vulnerable populations, comprehensive disease surveillance and the capacity for stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs). By analyzing genome sequences and epidemiological data, we reconstructed the epidemic trajectory of BA.2 wave and found that the initial BA.2 community transmission emerged from cross-infection within hotel quarantine. The rapid implementation of PHSMs suppressed early epidemic growth but the effective reproduction number (Re) increased again during the Spring festival in early February and remained around 1 until early April. Independent estimates of point prevalence and incidence using phylodynamics also showed extensive superspreading at this time, which likely contributed to the rapid expansion of the epidemic. Discordant inferences based on genomic and epidemiological data underscore the need for research to improve near real-time epidemic growth estimates by combining multiple disparate data sources to better inform outbreak response policy.

Is new dengue vaccine efficacy data a relief or cause for concern?

Dengue is a major global public health problem requiring a safe and efficacious vaccine as the foundation of a comprehensive countermeasure strategy. Despite decades of attempts, the world has a single dengue vaccine licensed in numerous countries, but restrictions and conditions of its use have deterred uptake. Recently, clinical efficacy data has been revealed for two additional dengue vaccine candidates and the data appears encouraging. In this perspective I discuss dengue, the complexities of dengue vaccine development, early development setbacks, and how the latest data from the field may be cause for measured optimism. Finally, I provide some perspectives on evaluating dengue vaccine performance and how the pursuit of the perfect dengue vaccine may prevent advancement of vaccines which are good enough.

Single B cell transcriptomics identifies multiple isotypes of broadly neutralizing antibodies against flaviviruses

Sequential dengue virus (DENV) infections often generate neutralizing antibodies against all four DENV serotypes and sometimes, Zika virus. Characterizing cross-flavivirus broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) responses can inform countermeasure strategies that avoid infection enhancement associated with non-neutralizing antibodies. Here, we used single cell transcriptomics to mine the bnAb repertoire following secondary DENV infection. We identified several new bnAbs with comparable or superior breadth and potency to known bnAbs, and with distinct recognition determinants. Unlike all known flavivirus bnAbs, which are IgG1, one newly identified cross-flavivirus bnAb (F25.S02) was derived from IgA1. Both IgG1 and IgA1 versions of F25.S02 and known bnAbs displayed neutralizing activity, but only IgG1 enhanced infection in monocytes expressing IgG and IgA Fc receptors. Moreover, IgG-mediated enhancement of infection was inhibited by IgA1 versions of bnAbs. We demonstrate a role for IgA in flavivirus infection and immunity with implications for vaccine and therapeutic strategies.

A live dengue virus vaccine carrying a chimeric envelope glycoprotein elicits dual DENV2-DENV4 serotype-specific immunity

The four dengue virus serotypes co-circulate globally and cause significant human disease. Dengue vaccine development is challenging because some virus-specific antibodies are protective, while others are implicated in enhanced viral replication and more severe disease. Current dengue tetravalent vaccines contain four live attenuated serotypes formulated to theoretically induce balanced protective immunity. Among the number of vaccine candidates in clinical trials, only Dengvaxia is licensed for use in DENV seropositive individuals. To simplify live-virus vaccine design, we identify co-evolutionary constraints inherent in flavivirus virion assembly and design chimeric viruses to replace domain II (EDII) of the DENV2 envelope (E) glycoprotein with EDII from DENV4. The chimeric DENV2/4EDII virus replicates efficiently in vitro and in vivo. In male macaques, a single inoculation of DENV2/4EDII induces type-specific neutralizing antibodies to both DENV2 and DENV4, thereby providing a strategy to simplify DENV vaccine design by utilizing a single bivalent E glycoprotein immunogen for two DENV serotypes.

Serum biomarkers and anti-flavivirus antibodies at presentation as indicators of severe dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most common vector-borne viral disease worldwide. Most cases are mild, but some evolve into severe dengue (SD), with high lethality. Therefore, it is important to identify biomarkers of severe disease to improve outcomes and judiciously utilize resources.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

One hundred forty-five confirmed dengue cases (median age, 42; range <1-91 years), enrolled from February 2018 to March 2020, were selected from an ongoing study of suspected arboviral infections in metropolitan Asunción, Paraguay. Cases included dengue virus types 1, 2, and 4, and severity was categorized according to the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines. Testing for anti-dengue virus IgM and IgG and serum biomarkers (lipopolysaccharide binding protein and chymase) was performed on acute-phase sera in plate-based ELISAs; in addition, a multiplex ELISA platform was used to measure anti-dengue virus and anti-Zika virus IgM and IgG. Complete blood counts and chemistries were performed at the discretion of the care team. Age, gender, and pre-existing comorbidities were associated with SD vs. dengue with/without warning signs in logistic regression with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.07 (per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.03, 1.11), 0.20 (female; 0.05,0.77), and 2.09 (presence; 1.26, 3.48) respectively. In binary logistic regression, for every unit increase in anti-DENV IgG in the multiplex platform, odds of SD increased by 2.54 (1.19-5.42). Platelet count, lymphocyte percent, and elevated chymase were associated with SD in a combined logistic regression model with ORs of 0.99 (1,000/μL; 0.98,0.999), 0.92 (%; 0.86,0.98), and 1.17 (mg/mL; 1.03,1.33) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple, readily available factors were associated with SD in this population. These findings will aid in the early detection of potentially severe dengue cases and inform the development of new prognostics for use in acute-phase and serial samples from dengue cases.