Predicting the probability of death using proteomics

Blood protein assessment of leading incident diseases and mortality in the UK Biobank

The circulating proteome offers insights into the biological pathways that underlie disease. Here, we test relationships between 1,468 Olink protein levels and the incidence of 23 age-related diseases and mortality in the UK Biobank (n = 47,600). We report 3,209 associations between 963 protein levels and 21 incident outcomes. Next, protein-based scores (ProteinScores) are developed using penalized Cox regression. When applied to test sets, six ProteinScores improve the area under the curve estimates for the 10-year onset of incident outcomes beyond age, sex and a comprehensive set of 24 lifestyle factors, clinically relevant biomarkers and physical measures. Furthermore, the ProteinScore for type 2 diabetes outperforms a polygenic risk score and HbA1c-a clinical marker used to monitor and diagnose type 2 diabetes. The performance of scores using metabolomic and proteomic features is also compared. These data characterize early proteomic contributions to major age-related diseases, demonstrating the value of the plasma proteome for risk stratification.

Deep learning-based prediction of one-year mortality in Finland is an accurate but unfair aging marker

Short-term mortality risk, which is indicative of individual frailty, serves as a marker for aging. Previous age clocks focused on predicting either chronological age or longer-term mortality. Aging clocks predicting short-term mortality are lacking and their algorithmic fairness remains unexamined. We developed a deep learning model to predict 1-year mortality using nationwide longitudinal data from the Finnish population (FinRegistry; n = 5.4 million), incorporating more than 8,000 features spanning up to 50 years. We achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.944, outperforming a baseline model that included only age and sex (AUC = 0.897). The model generalized well to different causes of death (AUC > 0.800 for 45 of 50 causes), including coronavirus disease 2019, which was absent in the training data. Performance varied among demographics, with young females exhibiting the best and older males the worst results. Extensive prediction fairness analyses highlighted disparities among disadvantaged groups, posing challenges to equitable integration into public health interventions. Our model accurately identified short-term mortality risk, potentially serving as a population-wide aging marker.

Proteomic aging clock (PAC) predicts age-related outcomes in middle-aged and older adults

Beyond mere prognostication, optimal biomarkers of aging provide insights into qualitative and quantitative features of biological aging and might, therefore, offer useful information for the testing and, ultimately, clinical use of gerotherapeutics. We aimed to develop a proteomic aging clock (PAC) for all-cause mortality risk as a proxy of biological age. Data were from the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project, including 53,021 participants aged between 39 and 70 years and 2923 plasma proteins assessed using the Olink Explore 3072 assay®. 10.9% of the participants died during a mean follow-up of 13.3 years, with the mean age at death of 70.1 years. The Spearman correlation between PAC proteomic age and chronological age was 0.77. PAC showed robust age-adjusted associations and predictions for all-cause mortality and the onset of various diseases in general and disease-free participants. The proteins associated with PAC proteomic age deviation were enriched in several processes related to the hallmarks of biological aging. Our results expand previous findings by showing that biological age acceleration, based on PAC, strongly predicts all-cause mortality and several incident disease outcomes. Particularly, it facilitates the evaluation of risk for multiple conditions in a disease-free population, thereby, contributing to the prevention of initial diseases, which vary among individuals and may subsequently lead to additional comorbidities.

Validation of biomarkers of aging

The search for biomarkers that quantify biological aging (particularly 'omic'-based biomarkers) has intensified in recent years. Such biomarkers could predict aging-related outcomes and could serve as surrogate endpoints for the evaluation of interventions promoting healthy aging and longevity. However, no consensus exists on how biomarkers of aging should be validated before their translation to the clinic. Here, we review current efforts to evaluate the predictive validity of omic biomarkers of aging in population studies, discuss challenges in comparability and generalizability and provide recommendations to facilitate future validation of biomarkers of aging. Finally, we discuss how systematic validation can accelerate clinical translation of biomarkers of aging and their use in gerotherapeutic clinical trials.

Seven knowledge gaps in modern biogerontology

About a year ago, members of the editorial board of Biogerontology were requested to respond to a query by the editor-in-chief of the journal as to what one question within their field of ageing research still needs to be asked and answered. This editorial is inspired by the wide range and variety of questions, ideas, comments and suggestions received in response to that query. The seven knowledge gaps identified in this article are arranged into three main categories: evolutionary aspects of longevity, biological survival and death aspects, and heterogeneity in the progression and phenotype of ageing. This is not an exhaustive and exclusive list, and may be modified and expanded. Implications of these knowledge gaps, especially in the context of ongoing attempts to develop effective interventions in ageing and longevity are also discussed.

Circulating Proteins and Mortality in CKD: A Proteomics Study of the AASK and ARIC Cohorts

Rationale & Objective

Proteomics could provide pathophysiologic insight into the increased risk of mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to investigate associations between the circulating proteome and all-cause mortality among patients with CKD.

Study Design

Observational cohort study.

Setting & Participants

Primary analysis in 703 participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) and validation in 1,628 participants with CKD in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who attended visit 5.

Exposure

Circulating proteins.

Outcome

All-cause mortality.

Analytical Approach

Among AASK participants, we evaluated the associations of 6,790 circulating proteins with all-cause mortality using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Proteins with significant associations were further studied in ARIC Visit 5 participants with CKD.

Results

In the AASK cohort, the mean age was 54.5 years, 271 (38.5%) were women, and the mean measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was 46 mL/min/1.73 m2. The median follow-up was 9.6 years, and 7 distinct proteins were associated with all-cause mortality at the Bonferroni-level threshold (P < 0.05 of the 6,790) after adjustment for demographics and clinical factors, including baseline measured estimated GFR and proteinuria. In the ARIC visit 5 cohort, the mean age was 77.2 years, 903 (55.5%) were women, the mean estimated GFR was 54 mL/min/1.73 m2 and median follow-up was 6.9 years. Of the 7 proteins found in AASK, 3 (β2-microglobulin, spondin-1, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) were available in the ARIC data, with all 3 significantly associated with death in ARIC.

Limitations

Possibility of unmeasured confounding. Cause of death was not known.

Conclusions

Using large-scale proteomic analysis, proteins were reproducibly associated with mortality in 2 cohorts of participants with CKD.

Plain-Language Summary

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have a high risk of premature death, with various pathophysiological processes contributing to this increased risk of mortality. This observational cohort study aimed to investigate the associations between circulating proteins and all-cause mortality in patients with CKD using large-scale proteomic analysis. The study analyzed data from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) study and validated the findings in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. A total of 6,790 circulating proteins were evaluated in AASK, and 7 proteins were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Three of these proteins (β2-microglobulin, spondin-1, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (BNP)) were also measured in ARIC and were significantly associated with death. Additional studies assessing biomarkers associated with mortality among patients with CKD are needed to evaluate their use in clinical practice.

Combining Polygenic and Proteomic Risk Scores With Clinical Risk Factors to Improve Performance for Diagnosing Absence of Coronary Artery Disease in Patients With de novo Chest Pain

BACKGROUND

Patients with de novo chest pain, referred for evaluation of possible coronary artery disease (CAD), frequently have an absence of CAD resulting in millions of tests not having any clinical impact. The objective of this study was to investigate whether polygenic risk scores and targeted proteomics improve the prediction of absence of CAD in patients with suspected CAD, when added to the PROMISE (Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain) minimal risk score (PMRS).

METHODS

Genotyping and targeted plasma proteomics (N=368 proteins) were performed in 1440 patients with symptoms suspected to be caused by CAD undergoing coronary computed tomography angiography. Based on individual genotypes, a polygenic risk score for CAD (PRSCAD) was calculated. The prediction was performed using combinations of PRSCAD, proteins, and PMRS as features in models using stability selection and machine learning.

RESULTS

Prediction of absence of CAD yielded an area under the curve of PRSCAD-model, 0.64±0.03; proteomic-model, 0.58±0.03; and PMRS model, 0.76±0.02. No significant correlation was found between the genetic and proteomic risk scores (Pearson correlation coefficient, -0.04; P=0.13). Optimal predictive ability was achieved by the full model (PRSCAD+protein+PMRS) yielding an area under the curve of 0.80±0.02 for absence of CAD, significantly better than the PMRS model alone (P<0.001). For reclassification purpose, the full model enabled down-classification of 49% (324 of 661) of the 5% to 15% pretest probability patients and 18% (113 of 611) of >15% pretest probability patients.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with chest pain and low-intermediate CAD risk, incorporating targeted proteomics and polygenic risk scores into the risk assessment substantially improved the ability to predict the absence of CAD. Genetics and proteomics seem to add complementary information to the clinical risk factors and improve risk stratification in this large patient group.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifier: NCT02264717.

Evaluation of Large-Scale Proteomics for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events

Importance

Whether protein risk scores derived from a single plasma sample could be useful for risk assessment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), in conjunction with clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores, is uncertain.

Objective

To develop protein risk scores for ASCVD risk prediction and compare them to clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in primary and secondary event populations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The primary analysis was a retrospective study of primary events among 13 540 individuals in Iceland (aged 40-75 years) with proteomics data and no history of major ASCVD events at recruitment (study duration, August 23, 2000 until October 26, 2006; follow-up through 2018). We also analyzed a secondary event population from a randomized, double-blind lipid-lowering clinical trial (2013-2016), consisting of individuals with stable ASCVD receiving statin therapy and for whom proteomic data were available for 6791 individuals.

Exposures

Protein risk scores (based on 4963 plasma protein levels and developed in a training set in the primary event population); polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke; and clinical risk factors that included age, sex, statin use, hypertension treatment, type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and smoking status at the time of plasma sampling.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were composites of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary heart disease death or cardiovascular death. Performance was evaluated using Cox survival models and measures of discrimination and reclassification that accounted for the competing risk of non-ASCVD death.

Results

In the primary event population test set (4018 individuals [59.0% women]; 465 events; median follow-up, 15.8 years), the protein risk score had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.93 per SD (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.13). Addition of protein risk score and polygenic risk scores significantly increased the C index when added to a clinical risk factor model (C index change, 0.022 [95% CI, 0.007 to 0.038]). Addition of the protein risk score alone to a clinical risk factor model also led to a significantly increased C index (difference, 0.014 [95% CI, 0.002 to 0.028]). Among White individuals in the secondary event population (6307 participants; 432 events; median follow-up, 2.2 years), the protein risk score had an HR of 1.62 per SD (95% CI, 1.48 to 1.79) and significantly increased C index when added to a clinical risk factor model (C index change, 0.026 [95% CI, 0.011 to 0.042]). The protein risk score was significantly associated with major adverse cardiovascular events among individuals of African and Asian ancestries in the secondary event population.

Conclusions and Relevance

A protein risk score was significantly associated with ASCVD events in primary and secondary event populations. When added to clinical risk factors, the protein risk score and polygenic risk score both provided statistically significant but modest improvement in discrimination.

Proteomic basis of mortality resilience mediated by FOXO3 longevity genotype

FOXO3 is a ubiquitous transcription factor expressed in response to cellular stress caused by nutrient deprivation, inflammatory cytokines, reactive oxygen species, radiation, hypoxia, and other factors. We showed previously that the association of inherited FOXO3 variants with longevity was the result of partial protection against mortality risk posed by aging-related life-long stressors, particularly cardiometabolic disease. We then referred to the longevity-associated genotypes as conferring "mortality resilience." Serum proteins whose levels change with aging and are associated with mortality risk may be considered as "stress proteins." They may serve as indirect measures of life-long stress. Our aims were to (1) identify stress proteins that increase with aging and are associated with an increased risk of mortality, and (2) to determine if FOXO3 longevity/resilience genotype dampens the expected increase in mortality risk they pose. A total of 4500 serum protein aptamers were quantified using the Somalogic SomaScan proteomics platform in the current study of 975 men aged 71-83 years. Stress proteins associated with mortality were identified. We then used age-adjusted multivariable Cox models to investigate the interaction of stress protein with FOXO3 longevity-associated rs12212067 genotypes. For all the analyses, the p values were corrected for multiple comparisons by false discovery rate. This led to the identification of 44 stress proteins influencing the association of FOXO3 genotype with reduced mortality. Biological pathways were identified for these proteins. Our results suggest that the FOXO3 resilience genotype functions by reducing mortality in pathways related to innate immunity, bone morphogenetic protein signaling, leukocyte migration, and growth factor response.

Forensic Impact of the Omics Science Involved in the Wound: A Systematic Review

Background: In forensic autopsies, examining the wounds is one of the most critical aspects to clarify the causal relationship between the cause of death and the wounds observed on the corpse. However, on many occasions, it is difficult to differentiate antemortem injuries from post-mortem injuries, mainly when they occur very close to the moment of death. At present, various studies try to find biomarkers and clarify the molecular mechanisms involved in a wound due to the high variability of conditions in which they occur, thus being one of the most challenging problems in forensic pathology. This review aimed to study the omics data to determine the main lines of investigation emerging in the diagnosis of vital injuries, time of appearance, estimation of the age and vitality of the wound, and its possible contributions to the forensic field.

Methods: A systematic review of the human wound concerning forensic science was carried out by following PRISMA guidelines.

Results: This study sheds light on the role of omics research during the process of wounding, identifying different cytokines and other inflammatory mediators, as well as cells involved in the specific stage of the wound healing process, show great use in estimating the age of a wound. On the other hand, the expression levels of skin enzymes, proteins, metal ions, and other biomarkers play an essential role in differentiating vital and post-mortem wounds. More recent studies have begun to analyze and quantify mRNA from different genes that encode proteins that participate in the inflammation phase of a wound and miRNAs related to various cellular processes.

Conclusions: This study sheds light on the role of research in the molecular characterization of vital wounds, heralding a promising future for molecular characterization of wounds in the field of forensic pathology, opening up an important new area of research.

Systematic Review Registration: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/#myprospero, Identifier: CRD42021286623.

DunedinPACE, a DNA methylation biomarker of the pace of aging

Background

Measures to quantify changes in the pace of biological aging in response to intervention are needed to evaluate geroprotective interventions for humans. Previously, we showed that quantification of the pace of biological aging from a DNA-methylation blood test was possible (Belsky et al., 2020). Here, we report a next-generation DNA-methylation biomarker of Pace of Aging, DunedinPACE (for Pace of Aging Calculated from the Epigenome).

Methods

We used data from the Dunedin Study 1972-1973 birth cohort tracking within-individual decline in 19 indicators of organ-system integrity across four time points spanning two decades to model Pace of Aging. We distilled this two-decade Pace of Aging into a single-time-point DNA-methylation blood-test using elastic-net regression and a DNA-methylation dataset restricted to exclude probes with low test-retest reliability. We evaluated the resulting measure, named DunedinPACE, in five additional datasets.

Results

DunedinPACE showed high test-retest reliability, was associated with morbidity, disability, and mortality, and indicated faster aging in young adults with childhood adversity. DunedinPACE effect-sizes were similar to GrimAge Clock effect-sizes. In analysis of incident morbidity, disability, and mortality, DunedinPACE and added incremental prediction beyond GrimAge.

Conclusions

DunedinPACE is a novel blood biomarker of the pace of aging for gerontology and geroscience.

Funding

This research was supported by US-National Institute on Aging grants AG032282, AG061378, AG066887, and UK Medical Research Council grant MR/P005918/1.