Effect of long-term body weight change on the incidence of hypertension in Japanese men and women

Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data

Hypertension is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We developed a simple scoring method for predicting future hypertension using health checkup data. A total of 41,902 participants aged 30-69 years without baseline hypertension who underwent annual health checkups (mean age, 52.3 ± 10.2 years; male, 47.7%) were included. They were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 27,935) and validation cohorts (n = 13,967) at a ratio of 2:1. In the derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and assigned scores to each factor significantly associated with 5-year hypertension. We evaluated the predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC) analysis and then applied them to the validation cohort to assess their validity. The score including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 14 and included seven indicators (age, body mass index, blood pressure, current smoking, family history of hypertension, diabetes, and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 12 and included five indicators (the above indicators, except diabetes and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling was better; blood sampling did not improve diagnostic ability. The AUC of the score not including items requiring blood sampling was 0.76, with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.82 and 0.60, respectively, for scores ≥6 points. The incidence of hypertension gradually and constantly increased (from 0.9 to 49.6%) as the score increased from 0 to ≥10. Analysis in the validation cohort yielded similar results. We developed a simple and useful clinical prediction model to predict the 5-year incidence of hypertension among a general Japanese population. The model had reasonably high predictive ability and reproducibility.

Demographic, socioeconomic, and biological correlates of hypertension in an adult population: evidence from the Bangladesh demographic and health survey 2017-18

Background

Bangladesh is well advanced in the epidemiologic transition from communicable to noncommunicable diseases, which now account for two out of three deaths annually. This paper examines the latest nationally representative hypertension prevalence estimates, awareness, treatment, and control—to identify their association with potential correlates.

Methods

The analyses are based on the recent Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 data. Univariate analyses and bivariate analyses between the outcome variables and individual covariates were carried out. Then chi-square tests were done to see the proportional differences between them. To examine the demographic, socioeconomic and biological factors affecting hypertension, awareness, treatment and control, we used multivariate logistic regression models.

Results

We found that prevalence of hypertension for females and males together aged 35 or more has risen by half between 2011 (25.7%) to 2017 (39.4%). With the broader age range used in 2017, the prevalence is now 27.5% in the population aged 18 years or more. The factors associated with hypertension included older age, being female, urban residence, higher wealth status, minimal education, higher body mass index and high blood glucose level. Following multivariate analyses, many of these characteristics were no longer significant, leaving only age, being female, nutritional status and elevated blood glucose level as important determinants. Over half (58%) of females and males who were found to be hypertensive were not aware they had the condition. Only one in eight (13%) had the condition under control.

Conclusion

In the coming years, a rising trend in hypertension in Bangladeshi adults is expected due to demographic transition towards older age groups and increase in overweight and obesity among the population of Bangladesh. With more women being hypertensive than men, a targeted approach catering to high risk groups should be thoroughly implemented following the Multisectoral NCD Action Plan 2018–2025. Acting in close collaboration with other ministries/relevant sectors to bring an enabling environment for the citizens to adopt healthy lifestyle choices is a prerequisite for adequate prevention. While screening the adult population is essential, the public sector cannot possibly manage the ever-expanding numbers of hypertensives. The private sector and NGOs need to be drawn into the program to assist.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11234-5.

Body mass index trajectories during mid to late life and risks of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes: Results from four prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND

Our understanding of the weight-outcome association mainly comes from single-time body mass index (BMI) measurement. However, data on long-term trajectories of within-person changes in BMI on diverse study outcomes are sparse. Therefore, this study is to determine the associations of individual BMI trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes.

METHODS

The present analysis was based on data from 4 large prospective cohorts and restricted to participants aged ≥45 years with at least two BMI measurements. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals(95%CI) for each outcome according to different BMI trajectories were calculated in Cox regression models.

FINDINGS

The final sample comprised 29,311 individuals (mean age 58.31 years, and 77.31% were white), with a median 4 BMI measurements used in this study. During a median follow-up of 21.16 years, there were a total of 10,192 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and 11,589 deaths. A U-shaped relation was seen with all study outcomes. Compared with maintaining stable weight, the multivariate adjusted HR for MACE were 1.53 (95%CI 1.40-1.66), 1.26 (95%CI 1.16-1.37) and 1.08 (95%CI 1.02-1.15) respectively for rapid, moderate and slow weight loss; 1.01 (95%CI 0.95-1.07), 1.13 (95%CI 1.05-1.21) and 1.29 (95%CI 1.20-1.40) respectively for slow, moderate and rapid weight gain. Identical patterns of association were observed for all other outcomes. The development of BMI differed markedly between the outcome-free individuals and those who went on to experience adverse events, generally beginning to diverge 10 years before the occurrence of the events.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings may signal an underlying high-risk population and inspire future studies on weight management.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangdong Natural Science Foundation.

Anthropometric measures change and incidence of high blood pressure levels among adults: a population-based prospective study in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the effects of BMI and waist circumference change on the cumulative incidence of high blood pressure levels (HBP) among adults.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal study in Southern Brazil, with a sample evaluated in 2009 (n = 1720) and 2012 (n = 1213). The incidence of HBP was estimated using measured values of systolic and diastolic arterial pressure (≥140/90 mmHg).

RESULTS

The prevalence of overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m) was 47.3% in 2009 and 55.0% in 2012. The incidence of HBP was 32.0%. Being overweight or having an elevated waist circumference (top quartile) in the two waves increased the incidence of HBP [odds ratio 3.41 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.10; 5.53) and 5.42 (95% CI 2.65; 11.08), respectively] compared with those always eutrophic. Being overweight in either wave also increased the risk of HBP, whereas reducing waist circumference was a protective factor. When the annual BMI and waist circumference change were evaluated (conditional to the baseline measurements, age, and sex) the adjusted predicted incidence of HBP was 46.5% (95% CI 36.9; 56.1) among individuals with an annual BMI change more than +1.0 kg/m, and 45.1% (95% CI 36.7; 53.4) among those with an annual waist circumference change more than +3.0 cm. Among those who reduced their BMI and waist circumference, the incidence of HBP were 25.9 and 23.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Being overweight (in any wave), maintaining an elevated waist circumference, or having an annual rise of these measurements above the expected values, all increased the incidence of HBP. Reducing the waist circumference showed greater benefits for the prevention of HBP than BMI changes.

Joint effects of age and body mass index on the incidence of hypertension subtypes in the China Health and Nutrition Survey: A cohort study over 22years

OBJECTIVES

We seek to investigate the joint effects of age and body mass index (BMI) on the incident hypertension subtypes among Chinese adults during 1989-2011.

METHODS

We investigated the Incidence rates (IRs, per 100person-years) of hypertension subtypes, adjusted relative risks (RRs) and population attributable risk percent (PAR%) of BMI for hypertension, and clarified the age-specific effect of BMI on incident hypertension utilizing a dynamic cohort study from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) 1989-2011.

RESULTS

Normotensive participants (n=53,028) at baseline were included, with mean age was 41.7 (95% CI, 41.6-41.7)years old. During a total of 118,694person years (average was 6.38years) of follow-up, a total of 5208 incident cases of hypertension were documented. The IRs of hypertension were 4.4 (95% CI, 4.3-4.5), which increased gradually by age and BMI (Ptrend<0.001). Compared with those with BMI<22kg/m(2), the RR of hypertension was 3.13 (95% CI, 2.84-3.45) in the group with BMI≥28kg/m(2). The PAR% (BMI>22 vs. BMI<22) for hypertension in Chinese population was 32% (95% CI, 29-34%). Similar trends were observed in all age and BMI groups for both isolated systolic hypertension and systolic-diastolic hypertension, which were mainly affected by age. In contrast, the peak IR of isolated diastolic hypertension was observed in participants aged 30-49years with higher BMIs.

CONCLUSIONS

The PAR% (IR of BP≥140/90 or treatment for BMI>22 vs. IR for BMI<22) of elevated body weight for hypertension was 32% in Chinese population.

Relations of body weight status in early adulthood and weight changes until middle age with hypertension in the Chinese population

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult participants from the China Multicenter Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Epidemiology to explore the relationship between early adulthood weight status, body weight change from age 25 to middle age and hypertension in the Chinese population. Self-reported weight was used to calculate the body mass index (BMI) at age 25. The association between BMI at age 25, subsequent weight change and hypertension was examined using a logistic regression model. Of the 14 635 study participants sampled in 1998, 3525 were diagnosed with hypertension. After adjusting for age, sex and other potential confounding factors, both the BMI at age 25 and weight gain were positively associated with the risk of hypertension (P for trend <0.001). Weight loss could more effectively reduce the risk of hypertension for participants with a higher BMI (BMI⩾24 kg m^-2) at age 25 than for those who experienced a weight change of -2.5-2.5 kg. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for a weight change of -7.5 to -2.6 kg were 0.63 (0.46-0.86); for a weight change of <-7.5 kg, these statistics were 0.45 (0.32-0.63). For participants who had a lower BMI (18.5-20.9 kg m^-2) at age 25, the OR and 95% CI were 0.86 (0.58-1.26) for a weight change of -7.5 to -2.6 kg and 0.95 (0.44-2.05) for a weight change of <-7.5 kg. Being overweight and obesity in early adulthood and adult weight gain were both independently associated with marked increase in the risk of hypertension in middle-aged men and women. Weight loss may be a protective factor against hypertension for people who were overweight or obese in early adulthood.

Incident hypertension and its prediction model in a prospective northern urban Han Chinese cohort study

Trends in incidence and prevalence of hypertension are grave in China and identifying high-risk, non-hypertension individuals for intervention may delay hypertension onset. We aimed to investigate the incidence of hypertension in northern urban Han Chinese population and construct multivariable hypertension prediction models through the prospective cohort, which included 7537 men and 4960 women free of hypertension at baseline between 2005 and 2010. During 38 958 person-years of follow-up, 2785 participants (men, 72.57%; women, 27.43%) developed hypertension. The incidence density of hypertension was 71.48 per 1000 person-year. In multivariable backward cox analyses, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting blood glucose and current drinking were retained for both men and women, while gamma-glutamyl transferase only for men, total cholesterol, neutrophil granulocyte and current smoking only for women. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.761 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.752-0.771) for men and 0.753 (95% CI, 0.741-0.765) for women, even after 10-fold cross-validation, the AUC was 0.760 (95% CI, 0.751-0.770) for men and 0.749 (95% CI, 0.737-0.761) for women. Through risk stratification, the absolute risk of incident hypertension in 5 years at moderate, high and very high risk level was 2.13, 3.84 and 6.14 times that of those who were at low risk in men, and 1.30, 2.56 and 6.01 times that of those who were at low risk in women. Our findings identified predictors of incident hypertension and indicated that the sex-specific multivariable prediction models would be simply used to estimate the risk of incident hypertension.

Change in Body Mass Index and Its Impact on Incidence of Hypertension in 18-65-Year-Old Chinese Adults

Aims: This study assessed change in body mass index (BMI) and its impact on the incidence of hypertension in 18- to 65-year-old Chinese adults. Methods: Two waves of data were collected in 2006 and 2011 by the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) with samples drawn from nine provinces in China. The logistic regression model was used to examine the association between change in BMI and the incidence of hypertension, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confident interval (95% CI) were calculated. Results: The risk of incident hypertension increased as the quartile of the BMI difference value (D-value) increased in men (OR and 95% CI for the highest quartile vs. the lowest quartile: 2.303, 1.560–3.401, respectively, p for trend < 0.001) and women (OR and 95% CI for the highest quartile vs. the lowest quartile: 1.745, 1.199–2.540, respectively, p for trend = 0.004). Compared with non-overweight subjects in 2011, the ORs of incident hypertension were all significantly higher for overweight subjects, regardless of their overweight status at baseline (p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, the results from this study provide unequivocal evidence that prevention of weight gain is likely to have a great impact on the incidence of hypertension in Chinese adults.

Changes in Body Weight From Young Adulthood to Middle Age and Its Association With Blood Pressure and Hypertension: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hong Kong Chinese Women

BACKGROUND

Few studies have examined the associations of weight changes from young adulthood to middle age with blood pressure (BP) and hypertension among Hong Kong Chinese women.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Weight at age 18 (W18), current weight (Wcurrent), height, BP, demographics, and lifestyle factors were obtained from 1253 female nurses (35-65 years) by a self-administered questionnaire through mail survey in Hong Kong. The conditional relative weight (CRW; a residual of Wcurrent regressed on W18) was used to express the relative weight change from age 18 to current age. The study results show that from young adulthood to middle age, 76.9%, 15.1%, and 8.0% of women had weight gain, weight loss, and stable weight, respectively. Women in the weight loss group had heavier W18 than those in the weight gain group (P<0.05). Higher weight gain was associated with higher BP (P for trend <0.01). Women who belonged to the heaviest 10% both at age 18 and at present had highest BP than women in other weight categories. By giving W18, a 1-kg increase in weight change predicted 0.63 and 0.42 mm Hg increases in systolic and diastolic BP, respectively (both P<0.001) and 12% greater odds of being hypertension (95% confidence interval, 1.08, 1.17). The CRW was positively associated with BP and hypertension; no interaction was found between CRW and Wcurrent on BP/hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

A majority of Chinese women tended to become heavier throughout adult life. More weight gain led to the higher BP. Weight change is an independent predictor for later-life BP and hypertension.

Diagnostic and predictive accuracy of blood pressure screening methods with consideration of rescreening intervals: a systematic review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force

BACKGROUND

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is the largest contributing risk factor to all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

PURPOSE

To update a systematic review on the benefits and harms of screening for high BP in adults and to summarize evidence on rescreening intervals and diagnostic and predictive accuracy of different BP methods for cardiovascular events.

DATA SOURCES

Selected databases searched through 24 February 2014.

STUDY SELECTION

Fair- and good-quality trials and diagnostic accuracy and cohort studies conducted in adults and published in English.

DATA EXTRACTION

One investigator abstracted data, and a second checked for accuracy. Study quality was dual-reviewed.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) predicted long-term cardiovascular outcomes independently of office BP (hazard ratio range, 1.28 to 1.40, in 11 studies). Across 27 studies, 35% to 95% of persons with an elevated BP at screening remained hypertensive after nonoffice confirmatory testing. Cardiovascular outcomes in persons who were normotensive after confirmatory testing (isolated clinic hypertension) were similar to outcomes in those who were normotensive at screening. In 40 studies, hypertension incidence after rescreening varied considerably at each yearly interval up to 6 years. Intrastudy comparisons showed at least 2-fold higher incidence in older adults, those with high-normal BP, overweight and obese persons, and African Americans.

LIMITATION

Few diagnostic accuracy studies of office BP methods and protocols in untreated adults.

CONCLUSION

Evidence supports ABPM as the reference standard for confirming elevated office BP screening results to avoid misdiagnosis and overtreatment of persons with isolated clinic hypertension. Persons with BP in the high-normal range, older persons, those with an above-normal body mass index, and African Americans are at higher risk for hypertension on rescreening within 6 years than are persons without these risk factors.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Obesity and hypertension in the Argentinian population compared to the white Hispanic population of the United States

Hypertension and obesity are two closely related pathologies in clinical practice. Currently, about one billion adults worldwide are overweight, and it is estimated that, if no serious action is taken to effect profound change, that figure will continue to rise throughout this century. Hypertension is also a serious public health problem worldwide, one that, along with type 2 diabetes, is growing due to increases in both life expectancy and obesity. However, the rate of increase varies by population group. For example, in the United States, the prevalence of obesity differs quite markedly among the white population of European origin, African American individuals, and the Latin American population. This disparity exists among other populations as well, such as that of Argentina, where obesity is less prevalent than in the United States. This significant difference between the Argentinean population and that of American whites may be explained by the former population's migratory origin and distinct eating habits.

Food groups and weight gain in Japanese men

Identifying subjects at high risk of weight gain according to consumption of food groups is important for individualizing nutritional education, but prospective studies of this issue have been few. We determined whether intake of specific food groups could predict future weight gain. We evaluated data from health checkups on 1236 Japanese men aged 28 to 87 years in 2005 and 2006. Dietary intake was assessed by a 24-h dietary recall at baseline. Weight change was measured after 1 year. Weight increased in 44.7% (n = 553) of participants. Multivariate regression analysis involving many food groups showed a significant association between sugar intake and weight gain after adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), total energy intake, alcohol, smoking and regular physical exercise (β = 0.22, P = 0.04). The effect of intake of 'fats and oils' was significant when adjusted for age and BMI, however, it became insignificant after adjustment for age, BMI and total energy intake. Intake of sugar, which was evaluated as a food group, was predictive of subsequent weight gain among Japanese men, even after adjustment for many confounders. This corroborates the evidence so far concerning the links between sugar intake and weight gain. Further long-term research is required to give robust recommendation to the public.

Cardiovascular risk factors for incident hypertension in the prehypertensive population

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors on progression from prehypertension (PreHTN) to hypertension (HTN) using an 8-yr prospective Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) by the National Health Insurance Corporation (NHIC) in Korea.

METHODS

A total of 16,229 subjects, aged 30 to 54, with new onset preHTN at baseline (1994-1996) in a biennial national medical exam were selected and followed up till 2004 at 2-yr intervals. All subjects underwent a biennial health examination including biochemical measurements and behavior. The log-rank test was performed to assess the relationship between changes in CVD risk factors and progression to HTN. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify factors influencing progression to HTN.

RESULTS

With regards the progression rate in men, ex-smokers (42.9%), abstainers (37.5%), and regular exercisers (37.6%) showed a slower progression rate than continuous smokers (49.5%) and continuous drinkers (50.9%). In women, those who participated in regular exercise (22.6%) had a lower rate of progression than continuous non-exercisers (36.1%). According to the results of the Cox proportional hazard model, improvements in smoking (hazard ratio [HR], 0.756), drinking (HR, 0.669), regular exercise (HR, 0.653), body mass index (HR, 0.715), and total cholesterol (HR, 0.788) played a protective role in progression to HTN in men, while in women, participating in regular exercise (HR, 0.534) was beneficial.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in CVD-related behaviors diminished the progression rate of HTN. This study suggests that individuals with PreHTN should be targeted for specific health behavioral intervention to prevent the progression of HTN.

Isolated office hypertension: A 3‐year follow‐up study

The study aimed to evaluate, over a 3-year period, the progression towards sustained hypertension and left ventricular (LV) changes in patients with isolated office (IO) hypertension (office BP>140 and/or 90 mmHg, daytime BP<130/80 mmHg). After 3 years from the basal evaluation, 38 subjects with basal normal BP and 42 subjects with basal IO hypertension underwent a second 24-h BP monitoring and echocardiography; 19 patients of the basal IO hypertension group were not revaluated because they had already developed ambulatory hypertension and were on antihypertensive treatment. At the second evaluation, the 38 normotensive subjects had unchanged BP and LV parameters; 25 IO hypertensives have developed sustained hypertension. Considering them together with the 19 patients already treated, 72% of 61 IO hypertensives developed ambulatory hypertension over a 3-year period. The patients who subsequently developed hypertension differed from the group who did not only for lower basal values of LV diastolic parameters; all the patients with basal LV hypertrophy and/or preclinical diastolic impairment subsequently developed sustained hypertension. In conclusion, IO hypertensive patients show a high rate of progression towards sustained hypertension. Basal LV hypertrophy and/or preclinical diastolic dysfunction were the only markers of a greater risk of becoming hypertensives.

The effect of retirement on weight

OBJECTIVES

People who are close to retirement age show the highest rates of weight gain and obesity. We investigate the effect of retirement on the change in body mass index (BMI) in diverse groups varying by wealth status and occupation type.

METHODS

Six panels of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2002) on individuals aged 50-71 were used (N = 37,807). We used fixed-effects regression models with instrumental variables method to estimate the causal effect of retirement on change in the BMI.

RESULTS

Retirement leads to modest weight gain, 0.24 BMI on average. Weight gain with retirement was found among people who were already overweight and those with lower wealth retiring from physically demanding occupations. The cumulative effect of aging among people in their 50s, however, outweighs the effect of retirement; the average BMI gain between ages 50 and 60 is 1.30, 5 times the effect of retirement.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the increasing number of people approaching retirement age, the population level impact of the weight gain ascribed to retirement on health outcomes and health care system might be significant. Future research should evaluate programs targeted to older adults who are most likely to gain weight with retirement.

Five-year incidence of obesity and its determinants: the ATTICA Study

Objectives

To evaluate the 5-year incidence of obesity in a sample of CVD-free adults and investigate the potential effect of several sociodemographic and lifestyle habits on weight change and obesity incidence in these individuals.

Methods

Men (n 1514) and women (n 1528) (>18 years) without any clinical evidence of CVD, living in the Attica area of Greece, were enrolled in the ATTICA study from May 2001 to December 2002. The sampling was random, multistage and included information about various sociodemographic, lifestyle (diet, exercise and smoking), biochemical and clinical characteristics. In 2006, the 5-year follow-up was performed through telephone calls or personal visits. Data from the 1364 participants are analysed in the present work.

Results

The 5-year incidence of obesity was 21·8 % in men and 11·9 % in women. The ratio of men to women revealed that more men than women developed obesity, while more women than men became overweight during the follow-up period. It was found that men were 1·6 times more likely to develop obesity compared with women; abnormal waist circumference, smoking habits and the presence of hypercholesterolaemia increased the risk for developing obesity, irrespective of age and baseline lifestyle characteristics of the participants. In the multivariate analysis, no association was detected between adherence to a Mediterranean diet and incidence of obesity in initially normal-weight individuals.

Conclusions

Obesity remains a serious health problem for the Greek population; the alarming rates of excess body weight continue to increase. Preventive measures should be urgently addressed, targeting particularly those with metabolic risk factors.

Increases in weight and body size increase the odds for hypertension during 7 years of follow-up

Changes in BMI and body size were compared to incident hypertension in 24,550 men and 10,111 women followed prospectively as part of the National Runners' Health Study to test whether long-term weight change affects hypertension risk. Incident hypertensions were reported by 2,143 men and 430 women during (mean +/- s.d.) 7.8 +/- 1.8 and 7.5 +/- 2.0 years of follow-up, respectively. Despite being active, men's and women's BMI increased 1.15 +/- 1.70 and 0.95 +/- 1.89 kg/m(2), respectively, and their waist circumferences increased 2.97 +/- 5.02 and 3.29 +/- 6.67 cm, respectively. Compared to those whose BMI declined, those who gained >or=2.4 kg/m(2) had an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.68 (1.45, 1.94) for becoming hypertensive if male and 1.42 (1.05, 1.92) if female. Men whose waist circumference increased >or=6 cm had an odds ratio of 1.22 (1.01, 1.47) for becoming hypertensive compared to those whose waists decreased. In both sexes, the odds for hypertension were significantly related to BMI at follow-up when adjusted for baseline BMI, but generally not to baseline BMI when adjusted for follow-up BMI. In the subset whose weights remained relatively unchanged during follow-up (+/-0.4 kg/m(2)), each kg/m(2) increment in BMI was associated with an odds ratio for becoming hypertensive of 1.19 (1.14, 1.24) in men and 1.11 (1.02, 1.20) in women. Thus, even among lean, physically active individuals: (i) weight gain increases hypertension risk; (ii) higher body weight increases the hypertension risk in a dose-dependent manner in the absence of any weight change; and (iii) there is no advantage carried forward to having been previously lean.

Abdominal obesity and inflammation predicts hypertension among prehypertensive men and women: the ATTICA Study

The aim of this work was to assess the 5-year incidence of hypertension and its predictors among prehypertensive adults. Under the context of the ATTICA Study, data from 1188 individuals, free of cardiovascular disease, but with defined high blood pressure levels (prehypertension) at baseline examination (during 2001-2002) were retrieved. In 2006, the 5-year follow-up of the study was performed, and 798 of the prehypertensive participants were allocated. In this work, incidence and determinants of developing hypertension were evaluated. The 5-year ageadjusted incidence of hypertension was 18.7% in men and 24.6% in women (P = 0.05); while almost one half of prehypertensive individuals at the age of 55-65 years developed hypertension, and approximately 6 out of 10 people over 65 years of age developed the disease. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that increased age (odds ratio [OR] per 1 year = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.12), male sex (OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.21-0.68), high education status (OR per 1 year of school = 0.94, 95% CI 0.88-0.98), waist circumference (OR per 1 cm = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06) and C-reactive protein (OR per 1 mg/l = 1.12, 95% CI 1.05-1.20), were positively associated with the development of hypertension. Moreover, greater adherence to Mediterranean diet seems to protect only prehypertensive, with abdominal obesity patients prone to develop hypertension (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.98). Annual incidence of hypertension was roughly 4% in men and women. Older people, with low education, abdominal obesity, lower adherence to the Mediterranean diet, and increased inflammation, constitute a model of prehypertensive individuals that are prone to develop hypertension.

Body mass index throughout the life-course and blood pressure in mid-adult life: a birth cohort study

BACKGROUND

The contribution of body mass index (BMI) at different life stages to adult blood pressure (BP) is not well known. We investigated whether changes in BMI across childhood and adulthood, and birthweight, influence BP in mid-adulthood.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 9297 participants in the 1958 British birth cohort, we analysed BMI measures at several ages (7, 11, 16, 33 and 45 years) and BP at 45 years. Positive BMI/BP associations strengthened with age; at 45 years a standard deviation (SD) increase in concurrent BMI was associated with an increase in systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 3.9 mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-4.2] and an elevated risk of hypertension (odds ratio 1.68; 95% CI 1.60-1.76). The effect of concurrent BMI on BP strengthened with decreasing childhood BMI; among the thinnest 10% at 11 years, SBP increased by 5.5 mmHg per SD increase in concurrent BMI; among the heaviest 10% the increase was 3.3 mmHg. Excessive BMI gain, especially recently, was associated with raised BP; allowing for BMI at 33 years, a SD increase in BMI between 33 and 45 years was associated with an SBP increase of 4.1 mmHg (95% CI 3.6-4.6). Birthweight was inversely associated with BP; SBP reduced by 1.3 mmHg (95% CI 0.9-1.7) per SD increase in birthweight, independently of BMI.

CONCLUSION

High BMI and excessive BMI gain at any life stage, particularly recently, is associated with increased adult BP. Relatively thin children were vulnerable to BMI gain and increased BP in adulthood. Elevated BP associated with low birthweight was not caused by 'catch-up' growth.

Incidence and predictors of hypertension over 8 years among Chinese men and women

OBJECTIVE

To determine the 8-year incidence of hypertension and its risk factors among Chinese adults.

METHODS

A population-based sample of 10,525 Chinese adults aged > or = 40 years and free from hypertension at baseline was followed up from 1991 to 1999-2000. Incident hypertension was defined as systolic pressure > or = 140 mmHg, diastolic pressure > or = 90 mmHg, or current use of antihypertensive medication.

RESULTS

Over a mean of 8.2 years of follow-up, 28.9% of men and 26.9% of women developed hypertension. Among men, independent predictors of incident hypertension were baseline age [relative risk (RR) per 5 years: 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.13], living in urban regions versus rural regions (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.85), alcohol drinking versus non-drinking (RR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.24), prehypertension versus normotension (RR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.53, 1.88), heart rate (RR of third versus first tertile: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.44), body mass index (RR of third versus first tertile: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.46) and low versus high physical activity (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.47). Results were similar for women, with current smoking in place of alcohol drinking and opposite results for region. The population-attributable risk of modifiable risk factors was between 25 and 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that the incidence of hypertension is high among these Chinese adults, and suggest that 25-50% of new hypertension cases could be prevented with risk factor modification. Given the excess cardiovascular mortality associated with hypertension, these data call for urgent improvements in hypertension prevention and control programs in China.

Perspectives in medical education. 3. Reforming medical education to change healthcare practice in Japan

The enviable health status of Japanese citizens is one of the reasons for obdurate opposition to reform of Japanese healthcare practice. Change is widely believed to be unnecessary for a system that is both successful and profitably exploited to universal benefit. However, societal trends are conspiring to make current healthcare practice patterns and expenditures unsustainable in the future. In particular, Japan has undergone an unprecedented demographic shift from a society of young (and healthy) workers to one of older retirees with a higher prevalence of obesity. As a result, an equally dramatic future increase can be anticipated in the prevalence of age- and obesity-related disorders. The traditional paradigm of Japanese healthcare is not conducive to the restraint necessary for preserving its future viability, given these trends. Japanese healthcare does not reward clinical problem-solving skills, values specialists over generalists, places a heavy reliance on expensive technology, does not require interventions to be evidence-based, and provides no incentives to improve quality or efficiency. If this paradigm endures, Japanese healthcare faces the real prospect of bankruptcy. The failure of Japanese medical education to inculcate clinical skills and stress evidence-based medical practice lies at the heart of the impending crisis in healthcare. To solve the crisis, medical education in Japan must change its focus to training and developing a cadre of physicians with the broad-based expertise and clinical skills to make evidence-based decisions in a medically and fiscally responsible manner. The future health of the system and of the Japanese people depends on it.

Short-term incidence rate of hypertension in Korea middle-aged adults

OBJECTIVES

Despite recent increasing trends in cardiovascular morbidities and mortality in Asia, studies on short-term changes in cardiovascular risks remain limited. This study estimated 2-year incidence rates of hypertension in middle-aged Korean adults aged 40-69 years, and investigated the impact of baseline levels of blood pressure, body mass index, and other conventional risk factors on the progression to hypertension.

METHODS

Blood pressures of participants were evaluated twice with a 2-year interval, measured by mercury sphygmomanometer according to the standardized protocol. Hypertension was defined when either the systolic and diastolic blood pressures were greater than 140 and 90 mmHg, respectively, or when a participant was treated with antihypertensive medications.

RESULTS

The crude 2-year incidence (calculated per 100) of hypertension was 12.2; 13.0 for men and 11.6 for women. For those who had higher blood pressure at baseline examination, incidence rates were two-fold or five-fold higher compared with those with optimal blood pressure. Older age and overweight were also major predictors for hypertension, even in Koreans with a low serum cholesterol level.

CONCLUSION

This is the first investigation of short-term incidence rates of hypertension in Asia. The results are consistent with the recently reported increasing trends in cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in Asia.

Epidemiology of obesity and hypertension and related risk factors in Uzbekistan

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the prevalence of obesity and hypertension and associated behavioral risk factors in adult men and women in Uzbekistan. The study also examined the association between obesity and hypertension.

METHOD

The analysis used data from the 2002 Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, which included a nationally representative sample of 2333 men aged 15-59 years and 5463 women aged 15-49 years. The survey measured height, weight and blood pressure and included questions on physical activity, dietary habits, tobacco smoking, alcohol use and other characteristics. The analysis was conducted using binary and multinomial logistic regression methods, separately for men and women.

RESULTS

Eating animal source protein and tobacco smoking in the past were positively associated with obesity, but there were no consistent associations with other dietary indicators, physical activity level or alcohol use. Obese men and women were about three times as likely to suffer from hypertension as those with a normal BMI (odds ratio (OR)=3.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.67-5.44; P<0.001 for men and OR=2.82; 95% CI: 2.05-3.86; P<0.001 for women), independent of physical activity level, dietary habits, tobacco smoking and other factors. For men, the risk of hypertension was strongly positively associated with BMI only at BMI levels above 25 kg/m(2), but for women a positive relationship was observed at all BMI levels.

CONCLUSION

The study found a strong positive association between obesity and hypertension in adult men and women in Uzbekistan. The shape of the relationship between BMI and hypertension is different for women than for men, requiring further research to explore this relationship.