Ash generation and distribution from the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Possible Effects of Volcanic Eruptions on the Modern Atmosphere of Venus

This work reviews possible signatures and potential detectability of present-day volcanically emitted material in the atmosphere of Venus. We first discuss the expected composition of volcanic gases at present time, addressing how this is related to mantle composition and atmospheric pressure. Sulfur dioxide, often used as a marker of volcanic activity in Earth's atmosphere, has been observed since late 1970s to exhibit variability at the Venus' cloud tops at time scales from hours to decades; however, this variability may be associated with solely atmospheric processes. Water vapor is identified as a particularly valuable tracer for volcanic plumes because it can be mapped from orbit at three different tropospheric altitude ranges, and because of its apparent low background variability. We note that volcanic gas plumes could be either enhanced or depleted in water vapor compared to the background atmosphere, depending on magmatic volatile composition. Non-gaseous components of volcanic plumes, such as ash grains and/or cloud aerosol particles, are another investigation target of orbital and in situ measurements. We discuss expectations of in situ and remote measurements of volcanic plumes in the atmosphere with particular focus on the upcoming DAVINCI, EnVision and VERITAS missions, as well as possible future missions.

Insights into volcanic hazards and plume chemistry from multi-parameter observations: the eruptions of Fimmvörðuháls and Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Holuhraun (2014-2015)

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 (including its initial effusive phase at Fimmvörðuháls and its later explosive phase from the central volcano) and Bárðarbunga volcano in 2014-2015 (at Holuhraun) were widely reported. Here, we report on complementary, interdisciplinary observations made of the eruptive gases and lavas that shed light on the processes and atmospheric impacts of the eruptions, and afford an intercomparison of contrasting eruptive styles and hazards. We find that (i) consistent with other authors, there are substantial differences in the gas composition between the eruptions; namely that the deeper stored Eyjafjallajökull magmas led to greater enrichment in Cl relative to S; (ii) lava field SO2 degassing was measured to be 5-20% of the total emissions during Holuhraun, and the lava emissions were enriched in Cl at both fissure eruptions-particularly Fimmvörðuháls; and (iii) BrO is produced in Icelandic plumes in spite of the low UV levels.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-023-06114-7.

Assessing natural global catastrophic risks

The risk of global catastrophe from natural sources may be significantly larger than previous analyses have found. In the study of global catastrophic risk (GCR), one line of thinking posits that deep human history renders natural GCRs insignificant. Essentially, the fact that natural hazards did not cause human extinction at any previous time makes it unlikely that they would do so now. This paper finds flaws in this argument, refines the theory of natural GCR, analyzes the space of natural GCRs, and presents implications for decision-making and research. The paper analyzes natural climate change, natural pandemics, near-Earth objects (asteroids, comets, and meteors), space weather (coronal mass ejections, solar flares, and solar particle events), stellar explosions (gamma-ray bursts and supernovae), and volcanic eruptions. Almost all natural GCR scenarios involve important interactions between the natural hazard and human civilization. Several natural GCR scenarios may have high ongoing probability. Deep human history provides little information about the resilience of modern global civilization to natural global catastrophes. The natural GCRs should not be dismissed on grounds of deep human history. Work on natural GCRs should account for their important human dimensions. A case can even be made for abandoning the distinction between natural and anthropogenic GCR.

Factors driving sediment compositional change in the distal area of the Ria de Vigo (NW Spain): oceanographic processes vs. paleopollution

We analyze potential Late Holocene metal contamination along a sediment core collected in the distal zone of Ria de Vigo (North Spain). Statistical treatment of the dataset based on a multiproxy approach enabled us to identify and disentangle factors influencing the depositional processes and the preservation of the records of this activity in the area over the last ≈3000 years BP. Some layers of the analyzed core have significant enrichment in Cu and a moderate enrichment in Ag, Mo, As, Sb, S, Zn, Ni, Sn, Cd, Cr, Co, Pb, and Li. The enrichment of these elements in some layers of this core may be related to mining activities that have taken place since classical times in the region. Successive phases of pollution were identified along the core KSGX24 related to the Late Bronze Age (≈3000-2450 years BP), Iron Age (≈2450-1850 years BP), Roman times (≈1850-1550 years BP), Middle Ages (≈1250-500 years BP), and industrial and modern (≈250-0 years BP) anthropic activities. The protection of the Cies Islands, the erosive and transport capacity of the rivers in the region, oscillations of the oceanographic and climatic regime, atmospheric contamination, and diagenetic sedimentary processes might have contributed to the accumulation and preservation of this record in the distal region of the Ria de Vigo. The studied core shows that the industrial and preindustrial anthropic impacts caused an environmental liability and contributed to the presence of moderate to heavy pollution of various metals in surface and subsurface sediment layers in the distal sector of the Ria de Vigo, which could be a hazard to biota.

Medication use in populations exposed to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the trends in medication use indicative of physical and psychological morbidity following the 2010 volcanic eruption in Eyjafjallajökull immediately after and during a 3-year period following the eruption.

DESIGN

Population-based register study.

SETTING

Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, 2007-2013.

PARTICIPANTS

All residents in Iceland who received at least one medication dispensing were identified. Residents of exposed areas were classified into exposure groups (individual-level data) and residents in other parts of Iceland were included as a non-exposed group (aggregated data).

INTERVENTION/EXPOSURE

Eyjafjallajökull erupted on 14 April 2010 and continued for 39 days, producing heavy ash fall in South Iceland.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Using interrupted time series analysis, we examined annual and quarterly changes in medicine use, measured as number of dispensed defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 individuals. We calculated the level shift (immediate change) and change in slope from pre-eruption to post-eruption (long-term change) in medication dispensing.

RESULTS

Among exposed residents, there was a 6% decrease (95% CI -7% to -4%) in the annual number of dispensed DDDs 1-year post-eruption in the overall medication class, including analgesics (-5%, 95% CI -6% to -3%), hypnotics and sedatives (-9%, 95% CI -11% to -7%) and respiratory medications (-7%, 95% CI -9% to -5%; -8%, 95% CI -11% to -4%). Simultaneously, there was a 9% decrease (95% CI -14% to -4%) in the overall medication class among non-exposed residents. Moreover, among exposed residents, we observed change in slope of -4% (95% CI -7% to -1%) in the overall medication class, including for analgesics (-6%, 95% CI -8% to -3%) and other respiratory drugs (-10%, 95% CI -16% to -4%).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that the eruption did not lead to increases in medication dispensing among residents of exposed areas, rather decreases for some medicine classes. The results should be interpreted with caution since the content of each eruption differs.

A Near-Real-Time Method for Estimating Volcanic Ash Emissions Using Satellite Retrievals

We present a Bayesian inversion method for estimating volcanic ash emissions using satellite retrievals of ash column load and an atmospheric dispersion model. An a priori description of the emissions is used based on observations of the rise height of the volcanic plume and a stochastic model of the possible emissions. Satellite data are processed to give column loads where ash is detected and to give information on where we have high confidence that there is negligible ash. An atmospheric dispersion model is used to relate emissions and column loads. Gaussian distributions are assumed for the a priori emissions and for the errors in the satellite retrievals. The optimal emissions estimate is obtained by finding the peak of the a posteriori probability density under the constraint that the emissions are non-negative. We apply this inversion method within a framework designed for use during an eruption with the emission estimates (for any given emission time) being revised over time as more information becomes available. We demonstrate the approach for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. We apply the approach in two ways, using only the ash retrievals and using both the ash and clear sky retrievals. For Eyjafjallajökull we have compared with an independent dataset not used in the inversion and have found that the inversion-derived emissions lead to improved predictions.

Assessing the Use of Optical Satellite Images to Detect Volcanic Impacts on Glacier Surface Morphology

Globally, about 250 Holocene volcanoes are either glacier-clad or have glaciers in close proximity. Interactions between volcanoes and glaciers are therefore common, and some of the most deadly (e.g., Nevado del Ruiz, 1985) and most costly (e.g., Eyjafjallajökull, 2010) eruptions of recent years were associated with glaciovolcanism. An improved understanding of volcano-glacier interactions is therefore of both global scientific and societal importance. This study investigates the potential of using optical satellite images to detect volcanic impacts on glaciers, with a view to utilise detected changes in glacier surface morphology to improve glacier-clad volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting. Roughly 1400 optical satellite images are investigated from key, well-documented eruptions around the globe during the satellite remote sensing era (i.e., 1972 to present). The most common observable volcanic impact on glacier morphology (for both thick and thin ice-masses) is the formation of ice cauldrons and openings, often associated with concentric crevassing. Other observable volcanic impacts include ice bulging and fracturing due to subglacial dome growth; localized crevassing adjacent to supraglacial lava flows; widespread glacier crevassing, presumably, due to meltwater-triggered glacier acceleration and advance. The main limitation of using optical satellite images to investigate changes in glacier morphology is the availability of cloud- and eruption-plume-free scenes of sufficient spatial- and temporal resolution. Therefore, for optimal monitoring and eruption prediction at glacier-clad volcanoes, optical satellite images are best used in combination with other sources, including SAR satellite data, aerial images, ground-based observations and satellite-derived products (e.g., DEMs).

The New Volcanic Ash Satellite Retrieval VACOS Using MSG/SEVIRI and Artificial Neural Networks: 2. Validation

Volcanic ash clouds can damage aircrafts during flight and, thus, have the potential to disrupt air traffic on a large scale, making their detection and monitoring necessary. The new retrieval algorithm VACOS (Volcanic Ash Cloud properties Obtained from SEVIRI) using the geostationary instrument MSG/SEVIRI and artificial neural networks is introduced in a companion paper. It performs pixelwise classifications and retrieves (indirectly) the mass column concentration, the cloud top height and the effective particle radius. VACOS is comprehensively validated using simulated test data, CALIOP retrievals, lidar and in situ data from aircraft campaigns of the DLR and the FAAM, as well as volcanic ash transport and dispersion multi model multi source term ensemble predictions. Specifically, emissions of the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (2011) are considered. For ash loads larger than 0.2 g m−2 and a mass column concentration-based detection procedure, the different evaluations give probabilities of detection between 70% and more than 90% at false alarm rates of the order of 0.3–3%. For the simulated test data, the retrieval of the mass load has a mean absolute percentage error of ~40% or less for ash layers with an optical thickness at 10.8 μm of 0.1 (i.e., a mass load of about 0.3–0.7 g m−2, depending on the ash type) or more, the ash cloud top height has an error of up to 10% for ash layers above 5 km, and the effective radius has an error of up to 35% for radii of 0.6–6 μm. The retrieval error increases with decreasing ash cloud thickness and top height. VACOS is applicable even for overlaying meteorological clouds, for example, the mean absolute percentage error of the optical depth at 10.8 μm increases by only up to ~30%. Viewing zenith angles >60° increase the mean percentage error by up to ~20%. Desert surfaces are another source of error. Varying geometrical ash layer thicknesses and the occurrence of multiple layers can introduce an additional error of about 30% for the mass load and 5% for the cloud top height. For the CALIOP data, comparisons with its predecessor VADUGS (operationally used by the DWD) show that VACOS is more robust, with retrieval errors of mass load and ash cloud top height reduced by >10% and >50%, respectively. Using the model data indicates an increase in detection rate in the order of 30% and more. The reliability under a wide spectrum of atmospheric conditions and volcanic ash types make VACOS a suitable tool for scientific studies and air traffic applications related to volcanic ash clouds.

Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions

Globalisation supports the clustering of critical infrastructure systems, sometimes in proximity to lower-magnitude (VEI 3–6) volcanic centres. In this emerging risk landscape, moderate volcanic eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects. Risk assessments ought to be considered in this light.

Reactive uptake of NO2 on volcanic particles: A possible source of HONO in the atmosphere

The heterogeneous degradation of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on five samples of natural Icelandic volcanic particles has been investigated. Laboratory experiments were carried out under simulated atmospheric conditions using a coated wall flow tube (CWFT). The CWFT reactor was coupled to a blue light nitrogen oxides analyzer (NO_x analyzer), and a long path absorption photometer (LOPAP) to monitor in real time the concentrations of NO₂, NO and HONO, respectively. Under dark and ambient relative humidity conditions, the steady state uptake coefficients of NO₂ varied significantly between the volcanic samples probably due to differences in magma composition and morphological variation related with the density of surface OH groups. The irradiation of the surface with simulated sunlight enhanced the uptake coefficients by a factor of three indicating that photo-induced processes on the surface of the dust occur. Furthermore, the product yields of NO and HONO were determined under both dark and simulated sunlight conditions. The relative humidity was found to influence the distribution of gaseous products, promoting the formation of gaseous HONO. A detailed reaction mechanism is proposed that supports our experimental observations. Regarding the atmospheric implications, our results suggest that the NO₂ degradation on volcanic particles and the corresponding formation of HONO is expected to be significant during volcanic dust storms or after a volcanic eruption.

Is Investors’ Psychology Affected Due to a Potential Unexpected Environmental Disaster?

The purpose of this paper is to approach the way investors perceive the risk associated with unexpected environmental disasters. For that reason, we examine certain types of natural and technological disasters, also known as “na-tech”. Based on the existing relevant literature and historical sources, the most common types of such disasters are geophysical and industrial environmental disasters. After providing evidence of the historical evolution of the na-tech events and a brief description of the events included in the sample, we estimate the systematic risk of assets connected to these events. The goal is to capture possible abnormalities as well as to observe investors’ psychology of risk after the occurrence of an unexpected event. Finally, we examine whether macroeconomic factors may affect those abnormalities. The empirical findings indicate that the cases we examined did not cause significant cumulative abnormal returns. Moreover, some events caused an increase in systematic risk while surprisingly some others reduced risk, showing that investors tend to support a country and/or corporation due to their reputation.

Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation of Volcanic Ash Clouds from Satellite Observations: Application to the 24 December 2018 Mt. Etna Explosive Eruption

Accurate tracking and forecasting of ash dispersal in the atmosphere and quantification of its uncertainty are of fundamental importance for volcanic risk mitigation. Numerical models and satellite sensors offer two complementary ways to monitor ash clouds in real time, but limits and uncertainties affect both techniques. Numerical forecasts of volcanic clouds can be improved by assimilating satellite observations of atmospheric ash mass load. In this paper, we present a data assimilation procedure aimed at improving the monitoring and forecasting of volcanic ash clouds produced by explosive eruptions. In particular, we applied the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to the results of the Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion model HYSPLIT. To properly simulate the release and atmospheric transport of volcanic ash particles, HYSPLIT has been initialized with the results of the eruptive column model PLUME-MoM. The assimilation procedure has been tested against SEVIRI measurements of the volcanic cloud produced during the explosive eruption occurred at Mt. Etna on 24 December 2018. The results show how the assimilation procedure significantly improves the representation of the current ash dispersal and its forecast. In addition, the numerical tests show that the use of the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter does not require a precise initialization of the numerical model, being able to improve the forecasts as the assimilation cycles are performed.

Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC: A Review of Developments since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Volcano Ash Cloud

It has been 10 years since the ash cloud from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull caused unprecedented disruption to air traffic across Europe. During this event, the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) provided advice and guidance on the expected location of volcanic ash in the atmosphere using observations and the atmospheric dispersion model NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-Dispersion Modelling Environment). Rapid changes in regulatory response and procedures during the eruption introduced the requirement to also provide forecasts of ash concentrations, representing a step-change in the level of interrogation of the dispersion model output. Although disruptive, the longevity of the event afforded the scientific community the opportunity to observe and extensively study the transport and dispersion of a volcanic ash cloud. We present the development of the NAME atmospheric dispersion model and modifications to its application in the London VAAC forecasting system since 2010, based on the lessons learned. Our ability to represent both the vertical and horizontal transport of ash in the atmosphere and its removal have been improved through the introduction of new schemes to represent the sedimentation and wet deposition of volcanic ash, and updated schemes to represent deep moist atmospheric convection and parametrizations for plume spread due to unresolved mesoscale motions. A good simulation of the transport and dispersion of a volcanic ash cloud requires an accurate representation of the source and we have introduced more sophisticated approaches to representing the eruption source parameters, and their uncertainties, used to initialize NAME. Finally, upper air wind field data used by the dispersion model is now more accurate than it was in 2010. These developments have resulted in a more robust modelling system at the London VAAC, ready to provide forecasts and guidance during the next volcanic ash event.

Complex refractive index of volcanic ash aerosol in the infrared, visible, and ultraviolet

Very fine silicate-rich volcanic ash, generated by explosive volcanic eruptions, can efficiently be traced downwind with infrared satellite sounders. Their measurements can also be used to derive physical parameters, such as optical depths and effective radii. However, one of the key requirements for accurate retrievals is a good knowledge of the complex refractive index (CRI) of the ash under investigation. In the past, the vast majority of the studies used the CRIs from Pollack et al. [Icarus19, 372 (1973)ICRSA50019-103510.1016/0019-1035(73)90115-2], which are based on measurements of thin slices of volcanic rock, and therefore are not representative for airborne volcanic ash particles. Here, we report measurements of the CRI of volcanic ash in suspension, generated from samples collected from recent high-impact eruptions in Chile (Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Calbuco, and Chaitén), Iceland (Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn), and Italy (Etna). The samples cover a wide range of ${{\rm SiO}_2}$SiO₂ content (46% to 76%) as confirmed by an X-ray fluorescence analysis. In the experimental setup, volcanic ash was suspended in nitrogen through mechanical agitation. Extinction spectra were recorded in the infrared, visible, and ultraviolet spectral regions. The particle size distribution within the airflow was also recorded. An iterative algorithm allowed us to obtain fully consistent CRIs for the six samples, compatible with the observed extinction spectra and the Kramers-Krönig relations. While a good agreement is found with other recently reported CRIs in the UV/Vis, larger differences are found in the longwave infrared spectral region.

Review of Explosive Hydrovolcanism

Hydrovolcanism is a type of volcanism where magma and water interact either explosively or non-explosively. The less frequently used term, hydromagmatism, includes all the processes responsible for magma and water interaction in a magmatic system. Hydrovolcanism is commonly used as a synonym for phreatomagmatism. However, in recent years phreatomagmatism appears more in association with volcanic eruptions that occur in shallow subaqueous or terrestrial settings and commonly involves molten fuel-coolant interaction (MFCI) driven processes. Here a revised and reviewed classification scheme is suggested on the basis of the geo-environment in which the magma-water interaction takes place and the explosivity plus mode of energy transfer required to generate kinetic energy to produce pyroclasts. Over the past decade researchers have focused on the role hydrovolcanism/phreatomagmatism plays in the formation of maar craters, the evolution of diatremes and the signatures of magma—water interaction in the geological record. In the past five years, lithofacies-characterization is the most common approach to studying hydrovolcanism. By far mafic monogenetic volcanic fields generated the greatest number of research results. Significant knowledge gaps are identified, especially in developing tools to identify the textural signatures hydrovolcanism leave behind on eruptive products and exploring the role of hydrovolcanism in the growth of intermediate and silicic small volume volcanoes.

Assessment of the potential for in-plume sulphur dioxide gas-ash interactions to influence the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash

BACKGROUND

Volcanic plumes are complex environments composed of gases and ash particles, where chemical and physical processes occur at different temperature and compositional regimes. Commonly, soluble sulphate- and chloride-bearing salts are formed on ash as gases interact with ash surfaces. Exposure to respirable volcanic ash following an eruption is potentially a significant health concern. The impact of such gas-ash interactions on ash toxicity is wholly un-investigated. Here, we study, for the first time, whether the interaction of volcanic particles with sulphur dioxide (SO₂) gas, and the resulting presence of sulphate salt deposits on particle surfaces, influences toxicity to the respiratory system, using an advanced in vitro approach.

METHODS

To emplace surface sulphate salts on particles, via replication of the physicochemical reactions that occur between pristine ash surfaces and volcanic gas, analogue substrates (powdered synthetic volcanic glass and natural pumice) were exposed to SO₂ at 500 °C, in a novel Advanced Gas-Ash Reactor, resulting in salt-laden particles. The solubility of surface salt deposits was then assessed by leaching in water and geochemical modelling. A human multicellular lung model was exposed to aerosolised salt-laden and pristine (salt-free) particles, and incubated for 24 h. Cell cultures were subsequently assessed for biological endpoints, including cytotoxicity (lactate dehydrogenase release), oxidative stress (oxidative stress-related gene expression; heme oxygenase 1 and NAD(P)H dehydrogenase [quinone] 1) and its (pro-)inflammatory response (tumour necrosis factor α, interleukin 8 and interleukin 1β at gene and protein levels).

RESULTS

In the lung cell model no significant effects were observed between the pristine and SO₂-exposed particles, indicating that the surface salt deposits, and the underlying alterations to the substrate, do not cause acute adverse effects in vitro. Based on the leachate data, the majority of the sulphate salts from the ash surfaces are likely to dissolve in the lungs prior to cellular uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study indicate that interaction of volcanic ash with SO₂ during ash generation and transport does not significantly affect the respiratory toxicity of volcanic ash in vitro. Therefore, sulphate salts are unlikely a dominant factor controlling variability in in vitro toxicity assessments observed during previous eruption response efforts.

Bubbles and Dust: Experimental Results of Dissolution Rates of Metal Salts and Glasses From Volcanic Ash Deposits in Terms of Surface Area, Chemistry, and Human Health Impacts

Explosive volcanic eruptions lead to ash deposition and subsequent leaching of contaminants into soils or surface water, impacting flora and fauna, including human health. This study determined the control of ash surface area and chemical composition on ash dissolution rates. Fresh, unhydrated ash samples from four contrasting volcanoes were analyzed in the laboratory. Column leachate tests were used to compare leaching rates over a range of basaltic to andesitic ashes as a function of time and surface area, to analyze the effects of ash deposition. It was found that surface area, measured both geometrically and by multipoint Brunauer-Emmett-Teller analysis, generally increases for a short time, gradually decreases, then increases over the rest of the leaching experiment, due to area to mass ratio fluctuations. After the column leachate tests, postleaching water analyses for elemental compositions were conducted by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry and ion chromatography. Steady state dissolution rates initially decayed rapidly due to the smallest size fraction of ash (dust), which provides a large area of fresh leachable surfaces as well as the rapid dissolution of highly soluble metal salts. Some of the dissolved concentrations of elements relevant to human and ecosystem health such as F, Cd, Se, As, and Cr rose above World Health Organization (WHO) drinking water standards within an hour of experimental leaching. In nature, however, safe consumption standards are further dependent upon bioaccumulation and chronic exposure. As such, individual and recurring ash deposition events have applications to emergency response and preparedness in volcanic regions.

Fluid dynamic induced break-up during volcanic eruptions

Determining whether magma fragments during eruption remains a seminal challenge in volcanology. There is a robust paradigm for fragmentation of high viscosity, silicic magmas, however little is known about the fragmentation behaviour of lower viscosity systems—the most abundant form of volcanism on Earth and on other planetary bodies and satellites. Here we provide a quantitative model, based on experiments, for the non-brittle, fluid dynamic induced fragmentation of low viscosity melts. We define the conditions under which extensional thinning or liquid break-up can be expected. We show that break-up, both in our experiments and natural eruptions, occurs by both viscous and capillary instabilities operating on contrasting timescales. These timescales are used to produce a universal break-up criterion valid for low viscosity melts such as basalt, kimberlite and carbonatite. Lastly, we relate these break-up instabilities to changes in eruptive behaviour, the associated natural hazard and ultimately the deposits formed.

Determining if a volcanic eruption will behave effusively or explosively is crucial for predicting the potential hazard type and for planning effective mitigation. Here, the authors present a universal, fluid dynamic induced, break-up criterion for low viscosity melts.

First marine cryptotephra in Antarctica found in sediments of the western Ross Sea correlates with englacial tephras and climate records

We report the discovery of an important new cryptotephra within marine sediments close to Cape Hallett (northern Victoria Land), in the western Ross Sea, Antarctica. The cryptotephra is fully characterized for its texture, mineralogy and major- and trace-element data obtained on single glass shards. On the basis of geochemical composition, the cryptotephra is unequivocally correlated with the proximal deposits of an explosive eruption of the poorly known Mount Rittmann volcano, situated in northern Victoria Land. The cryptotephra is also correlated with a widespread tephra layer, which was erupted in 1254 C.E. and is present in numerous ice-cores and blue ice fields across East and West Antarctica. The characteristics of the tephra indicate that it was produced by a prolonged, moderate energy, mostly hydromagmatic eruption. This is the first time that a cryptotephra has been identified in marine sediments of the Ross Sea and in ice cores. It provides an important new and widespread stratigraphical datum with which the continental cryosphere and marine sedimentological records in Antarctica can be correlated. Moreover, from a purely volcanological point of view, the discovery further confirms the occurrence of a long-lasting, significant explosive eruption from Mount Rittmann in historical times that produced abundant widely dispersed fine ash. The study also highlights the inadequacy of current hazard assessments for poorly known volcanoes such as Mount Rittmann, located at high southern latitudes.

Sensitivity of Glacier Runoff to Winter Snow Thickness Investigated for Vatnajökull Ice Cap, Iceland, Using Numerical Models and Observations

Several simulations of the surface climate and energy balance of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, are used to estimate the glacier runoff for the period 1980–2015 and the sensitivity of runoff to the spring conditions (e.g., snow thickness). The simulations are calculated using the snow pack scheme from the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced with incoming mass and energy fluxes from the numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE-AROME. The modeled runoff is compared to available observations from two outlet glaciers to assess the quality of the simulations. To test the sensitivity of the runoff to spring conditions, simulations are repeated for the spring conditions of each of the years 1980–2015, followed by the weather of all summers in the same period. We find that for the whole ice cap, the variability in runoff as a function of varying spring conditions was on average 31% of the variability due to changing summer weather. However, some outlet glaciers are very sensitive to the amount of snow in the spring, as e.g., the variation in runoff from Brúarjökull due to changing spring conditions was on average 50% of the variability due to varying summer weather.

Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface

Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited. The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm² and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm² for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO₂). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses. Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of volcanic ash and gasoline vehicle exhaust has a limited short-term biological impact to an advanced lung cell in vitro model.

Meteorological Controls on Local and Regional Volcanic Ash Dispersal

Volcanic ash has the capacity to impact human health, livestock, crops and infrastructure, including international air traffic. For recent major eruptions, information on the volcanic ash plume has been combined with relatively coarse-resolution meteorological model output to provide simulations of regional ash dispersal, with reasonable success on the scale of hundreds of kilometres. However, to predict and mitigate these impacts locally, significant improvements in modelling capability are required. Here, we present results from a dynamic meteorological-ash-dispersion model configured with sufficient resolution to represent local topographic and convectively-forced flows. We focus on an archetypal volcanic setting, Soufrière, St Vincent, and use the exceptional historical records of the 1902 and 1979 eruptions to challenge our simulations. We find that the evolution and characteristics of ash deposition on St Vincent and nearby islands can be accurately simulated when the wind shear associated with the trade wind inversion and topographically-forced flows are represented. The wind shear plays a primary role and topographic flows a secondary role on ash distribution on local to regional scales. We propose a new explanation for the downwind ash deposition maxima, commonly observed in volcanic eruptions, as resulting from the detailed forcing of mesoscale meteorology on the ash plume.

High-Precision In Situ 87Sr/86Sr Analyses through Microsampling on Solid Samples: Applications to Earth and Life Sciences

An analytical protocol for high-precision, in situ microscale isotopic investigations is presented here, which combines the use of a high-performing mechanical microsampling device and high-precision TIMS measurements on micro-Sr samples, allowing for excellent results both in accuracy and precision. The present paper is a detailed methodological description of the whole analytical procedure from sampling to elemental purification and Sr-isotope measurements. The method offers the potential to attain isotope data at the microscale on a wide range of solid materials with the use of minimally invasive sampling. In addition, we present three significant case studies for geological and life sciences, as examples of the various applications of microscale ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratios, concerning (i) the pre-eruptive mechanisms triggering recent eruptions at Nisyros volcano (Greece), (ii) the dynamics involved with the initial magma ascent during Eyjafjallajökull volcano's (Iceland) 2010 eruption, which are usually related to the precursory signals of the eruption, and (iii) the environmental context of a MIS 3 cave bear, Ursus spelaeus. The studied cases show the robustness of the methods, which can be also be applied in other areas, such as cultural heritage, archaeology, petrology, and forensic sciences.

Comparing Two Independent Satellite-Based Algorithms for Detecting and Tracking Ash Clouds by Using SEVIRI Sensor

The Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) volcanic eruption of April–May 2010 caused unprecedented air-traffic disruption in Northern Europe, revealing some important weaknesses of current operational ash-monitoring and forecasting systems and encouraging the improvement of methods and procedures for supporting the activities of Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) better. In this work, we compare two established satellite-based algorithms for ash detection, namely RST_ASH and the operational London VAAC method, both exploiting sensor data of the spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI). We analyze similarities and differences in the identification of ash clouds during the different phases of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The work reveals, in some cases, a certain complementary behavior of the two techniques, whose combination might improve the identification of ash-affected areas in specific conditions. This is indicated by the quantitative comparison of the merged SEVIRI ash product, achieved integrating outputs of the RST_ASH and London VAAC methods, with independent atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) DDA (dust-detection algorithm) observations.

Iron Biogeochemistry in the High Latitude North Atlantic Ocean

Iron (Fe) is an essential micronutrient for marine microbial organisms, and low supply controls productivity in large parts of the world’s ocean. The high latitude North Atlantic is seasonally Fe limited, but Fe distributions and source strengths are poorly constrained. Surface ocean dissolved Fe (DFe) concentrations were low in the study region (<0.1 nM) in summer 2010, with significant perturbations during spring 2010 in the Iceland Basin as a result of an eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano (up to 2.5 nM DFe near Iceland) with biogeochemical consequences. Deep water concentrations in the vicinity of the Reykjanes Ridge system were influenced by pronounced sediment resuspension, with indications for additional inputs by hydrothermal vents, with subsequent lateral transport of Fe and manganese plumes of up to 250–300 km. Particulate Fe formed the dominant pool, as evidenced by 4–17 fold higher total dissolvable Fe compared with DFe concentrations, and a dynamic exchange between the fractions appeared to buffer deep water DFe. Here we show that Fe supply associated with deep winter mixing (up to 103 nmol m⁻² d⁻¹) was at least ca. 4–10 times higher than atmospheric deposition, diffusive fluxes at the base of the summer mixed layer, and horizontal surface ocean fluxes.

Potential ash impact from Antarctic volcanoes: Insights from Deception Island's most recent eruption

Ash emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions may disperse over vast areas of the globe posing a threat to human health and infrastructures and causing significant disruption to air traffic. In Antarctica, at least five volcanoes have reported historic activity. However, no attention has been paid to the potential socio-economic and environmental consequences of an ash-forming eruption occurring at high southern latitudes. This work shows how ash from Antarctic volcanoes may pose a higher threat than previously believed. As a case study, we evaluate the potential impacts of ash for a given eruption scenario from Deception Island, one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica. Numerical simulations using the novel MMB-MONARCH-ASH model demonstrate that volcanic ash emitted from Antarctic volcanoes could potentially encircle the globe, leading to significant consequences for global aviation safety. Results obtained recall the need for performing proper hazard assessment on Antarctic volcanoes, and are crucial for understanding the patterns of ash distribution at high southern latitudes with strong implications for tephrostratigraphy, which is pivotal to synchronize palaeoclimatic records.

Enhanced ice sheet melting driven by volcanic eruptions during the last deglaciation

Volcanic eruptions can impact the mass balance of ice sheets through changes in climate and the radiative properties of the ice. Yet, empirical evidence highlighting the sensitivity of ancient ice sheets to volcanism is scarce. Here we present an exceptionally well-dated annual glacial varve chronology recording the melting history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet at the end of the last deglaciation (∼13,200-12,000 years ago). Our data indicate that abrupt ice melting events coincide with volcanogenic aerosol emissions recorded in Greenland ice cores. We suggest that enhanced ice sheet runoff is primarily associated with albedo effects due to deposition of ash sourced from high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Climate and snowpack mass-balance simulations show evidence for enhanced ice sheet runoff under volcanically forced conditions despite atmospheric cooling. The sensitivity of past ice sheets to volcanic ashfall highlights the need for an accurate coupling between atmosphere and ice sheet components in climate models.

The first physical evidence of subglacial volcanism under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is highly vulnerable to collapsing because of increased ocean and surface temperatures. New evidence from ice core tephra shows that subglacial volcanism can breach the surface of the ice sheet and may pose a great threat to WAIS stability. Micro-CT analyses on englacial ice core tephra along with detailed shard morphology characterization and geochemical analysis suggest that two tephra layers were derived from subglacial to emergent volcanism that erupted through the WAIS. These tephra were erupted though the center of the ice sheet, deposited near WAIS Divide and preserved in the WDC06A ice core. The sources of these tephra layers were likely to be nearby subglacial volcanoes, Mt. Resnik, Mt. Thiel, and/or Mt. Casertz. A widespread increase in ice loss from WAIS could trigger positive feedback by decreasing ice mass and increasing decompression melting under the WAIS, increasing volcanism. Both tephra were erupted during the last glacial period and a widespread increase in subglacial volcanism in the future could have a considerable effect on the stability of the WAIS and resulting sea level rise.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

BACKGROUND

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations.

METHODS

A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network.

RESULTS

Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m² g^-1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO^•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m^-2, with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

High resolution 3D confocal microscope imaging of volcanic ash particles

We present initial results from a novel high resolution confocal microscopy study of the 3D surface structure of volcanic ash particles from two recent explosive basaltic eruptions, Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grimsvötn (2011), in Iceland. The majority of particles imaged are less than 100μm in size and include PM₁₀s, known to be harmful to humans if inhaled. Previous studies have mainly used 2D microscopy to examine volcanic particles. The aim of this study was to test the potential of 3D laser scanning confocal microscopy as a reliable analysis tool for these materials and if so to what degree high resolution surface and volume data could be obtained that would further aid in their classification. First results obtained using an Olympus LEXT scanning confocal microscope with a ×50 and ×100 objective lens are highly encouraging. They reveal a range of discrete particle types characterised by sharp or concave edges consistent with explosive formation and sudden rupture of magma. Initial surface area/volume ratios are given that may prove useful in subsequent modelling of damage to aircraft engines and human tissue where inhalation has occurred.

Wetting and Spreading of Molten Volcanic Ash in Jet Engines

A major hazard to jet engines posed by volcanic ash is linked to the wetting and spreading of molten ash droplets on engine component surfaces. Here, using the sessile drop method, we study the evolution of the wettability and spreading of volcanic ash. We employ rapid temperature changes up to 1040-1450 °C, to replicate the heating conditions experienced by volcanic ash entering an operating jet engine. In this scenario, samples densify as particles coalesce under surface tension until they form a large system-sized droplet (containing remnant gas bubbles and crystals), which subsequently spreads on the surface. The data exhibit a transition from a heterogeneous to a homogeneous wetting regime above 1315 °C as crystals in the drops are dissolved in the melt. We infer that both viscosity and microstructural evolution are key controls on the attainment of equilibrium in the wetting of molten volcanic ash droplets.

Long-term health effects of the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption: a prospective cohort study in 2010 and 2013

OBJECTIVES

To examine the long-term development of physical and mental health following exposure to a volcanic eruption.

DESIGN

Population-based prospective cohort study.

SETTING

In spring 2010, the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull erupted. Data were collected at 2 time points: in 2010 and 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult residents in areas close to the Eyjafjallajökull volcano (N=1096), divided according to exposure levels, and a non-exposed sample (n=475), with 80% participation rate in 2013.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Physical symptoms in the previous year (chronic) and previous month (recent), and psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire-12-item version, GHQ-12), perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale, PSS-4) and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms (Primary Care PTSD, PC-PTSD).

RESULTS

In the exposed group, certain symptoms were higher in 2013 than in 2010, for example, morning phlegm during winter (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.49 to 3.06), skin rash/eczema (OR 2.86; 95% CI 1.76 to 4.65), back pain (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.05) and insomnia (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.01 to 2.30), in addition to a higher prevalence of regular use of certain medications (eg, for asthma (OR 2.80; 95% CI 1.01 to 7.77)). PTSD symptoms decreased between 2010 and 2013 (OR 0.33; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.61), while the prevalence of psychological distress and perceived stress remained similar. In 2013, the exposed group showed a higher prevalence of various respiratory symptoms than did the non-exposed group, such as wheezing without a cold (high exposure OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.27 to 4.47) and phlegm (high exposure OR 2.81; 95% CI 1.48 to 5.55), some symptoms reflecting the degree of exposure (eg, nocturnal chest tightness (medium exposed OR 3.09; 95% CI 1.21 to 10.46; high exposed OR 3.42; 95% CI 1.30 to 11.79)).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that people exposed to a volcanic eruption, especially those most exposed, exhibit increased risk of certain symptoms 3-4 years after the eruption.

Volcanic ash leaching as a means of tracing the environmental impact of the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, Iceland

The Grímsvötn volcanic eruption, from 21 to 28 May, 2011, was the largest eruption of the Grímsvötn Volcanic System since 1873, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of magnitude 4. The main geochemical features of the potential environmental impact of the volcanic ash-water interaction were determined using two different leaching methods as proxies (batch and vertical flow-through column experiments). Ash consists of glass with minor amounts of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, diopside, olivine and iron sulphide; this latter mineral phase is very rare in juvenile ash. Ash grain morphology and size reflect the intense interaction of magma and water during eruption. Batch and column leaching tests in deionised water indicate that Na, K, Ca, Mg, Si, Cl, S and F had the highest potential geochemical fluxes to the environment. Release of various elements from volcanic ash took place immediately through dissolution of soluble salts from the ash surface. Element solubilities of Grímsvötn ash regarding bulk ash composition were <1 %. Combining the element solubilities and the total estimated mass of tephra (7.29 × 10(14) g), the total inputs of environmentally important elements were estimated to be 8.91 × 10(9) g Ca, 7.02 × 10(9) g S, 1.10 × 10(9) g Cl, 9.91 × 10(8) g Mg, 9.91 × 10(8) g Fe and 1.45 × 10(8) g P The potential environmental problems were mainly associated with the release of F (5.19 × 10(9) g).

Aerosol composition and properties variation at the ground and over the column under different air masses advection in South Italy

Aerosol composition and properties variation under the advection of different air masses were investigated, as case studies, by contemporary measurements over the atmospheric column and at the ground in a semi-rural site in South Italy. The absence of local strong sources in this area allowed to characterize background aerosol and to compare particle mixing effects under various atmospheric circulation conditions. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ǻngström parameters from radiometric measurements allowed the detection and identification of polluted, dust, and volcanic atmospheric conditions. AODs were the input for a suitable model to evaluate the columnar aerosol composition, according to six main atmospheric components (water-soluble, soot, sea salt accumulation, sea salt coarse, mineral dus,t and biological). Scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis of particulate sampled with a 13-stage impactor at the ground showed not only fingerprints typical of the different air masses but also the effects of transport and aging on atmospheric particles, suggesting processes that changed their chemical and optical properties. Background columnar aerosol was characterized by 72% of water-soluble and soot, in agreement with ground-based findings that highlighted 60% of contribution from anthropogenic carbonate particles and soot. In general, a good agreement between ground-based and columnar results was observed. Under the advection of trans-boundary air masses, water-soluble and soot were always present in columnar aerosol, whereas, in variable percentages, sea salt and mineral particles characterized both dust and volcanic conditions. At the ground, sulfates characterized the amorphous matrix produced in finer stages by the evaporation of solutions of organic and inorganic aerosols. Sulfates were also one of the key players involved in heterogeneous chemical reactions, producing complex secondary aerosol, as such clay-sulfate internally mixed particle externally mixed with soot chains.

Uncertainty analysis of a model of wind-blown volcanic plumes

Mathematical models of natural processes can be used as inversion tools to predict unobserved properties from measured quantities. Uncertainty in observations and model formulation impact on the efficacy of inverse modelling. We present a general methodology, history matching, that can be used to investigate the effect of observational and model uncertainty on inverse modelling studies. We demonstrate history matching on an integral model of volcanic plumes that is used to estimate source conditions from observations of the rise height of plumes during the eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, in 2010 and Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011. Sources of uncertainty are identified and quantified, and propagated through the integral plume model. A preliminary sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the uncertain model parameters that strongly influence model predictions. Model predictions are assessed against observations through an implausibility measure that rules out model inputs that are considered implausible given the quantified uncertainty. We demonstrate that the source mass flux at the volcano can be estimated from plume height observations, but the magmatic temperature, exit velocity and exsolved gas mass fraction cannot be accurately determined. Uncertainty in plume height observations and entrainment coefficients results in a large range of plausible values of the source mass flux. Our analysis shows that better constraints on entrainment coefficients for volcanic plumes and more precise observations of plume height are required to obtain tightly constrained estimates of the source mass flux.

The NASA Volcano Sensor Web, advanced autonomy and the remote sensing of volcanic eruptions: a review

The Volcano Sensor Web (VSW) is a globe-spanning net of sensors and applications for detecting volcanic activity. Alerts from the VSW are used to trigger observations from space using the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) spacecraft. Onboard EO-1 is the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) advanced autonomy software. Using ASE has streamlined spacecraft operations and has enabled the rapid delivery of high-level products to end-users. The entire process, from initial alert to product delivery, is autonomous. This facility is of great value as a rapid response is vital during a volcanic crisis. ASE consists of three parts: (1) Science Data Classifiers, which process EO-1 Hyperion data to identify anomalous thermal signals; (2) a Spacecraft Command Language; and (3) the Continuous Activity Scheduling Planning Execution and Replanning (CASPER) software that plans and replans activities, including downlinks, based on available resources and operational constraints. For each eruption detected, thermal emission maps and estimates of eruption parameters are posted to a website at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, in Pasadena, CA. Selected products are emailed to end-users. The VSW uses software agents to detect volcanic activity alerts generated from a wide variety of sources on the ground and in space, and can also be easily triggered manually.

Lagrangian coherent structures along atmospheric rivers

We show that filamentous Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) over the Northern Atlantic Ocean are closely linked to attracting Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) in the large scale wind field. The detected LCSs represent lines of attraction in the evolving flow with a significant impact on all passive tracers. Using Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents, we extract LCSs from a two-dimensional flow derived from water vapor flux of atmospheric reanalysis data and compare them to the three-dimensional LCS obtained from the wind flow. We correlate the typical filamentous water vapor patterns of ARs with LCSs and find that LCSs bound the filaments on the back side. Passive advective transport of water vapor in the AR from tropical latitudes is potentially possible.

Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises

Eruptions at the Icelandic volcanoes of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grimsvötn (2011) produced plumes of ash posing hazards to air traffic over northern Europe. In imposing restrictions on air traffic, regulators needed to balance the dangers of accidents or aircraft damage against the cost and inconvenience to travelers and industry. Two surveys examined how members of the public viewed the necessity of the imposed restrictions and their trust in different agencies as estimators of the level of risk. Study 1 was conducted with 213 British citizens (112 males, 101 females), who completed questionnaires while waiting for flights at London City Airport during May 2012. Study 2 involved an online survey of 301 Icelandic citizens (172 males, 127 females, 2 undeclared gender) during April 2012. In both samples, there was general support for the air traffic restrictions, especially among those who gave higher estimates of the likelihood of an air accident or mishap having otherwise happened. However, in both countries, the (minority of) respondents who had personally experienced travel disruption were less convinced that these restrictions were all necessary. Scientists, the International Civil Aviation Organization, and (in Iceland) the Icelandic Department of Civil Protection were all highly trusted, and seen as erring on the side of caution in their risk estimates. Airlines were seen as more likely to underestimate any risk. We conclude that perceptions of the balance between risk and caution in judgments under uncertainty are influenced by one's own motives and those attributed to others.

Cryptotephras: the revolution in correlation and precision dating

From its Icelandic origins in the study of visible tephra horizons, tephrochronology took a remarkable step in the late 1980 s with the discovery of a ca. 4300-year-old microscopic ash layer in a Scottish peat bog. Since then, the search for these cryptotephra deposits in distal areas has gone from strength to strength. Indeed, a recent discovery demonstrates how a few fine-grained glass shards from an Alaskan eruption have been dispersed more than 7000 km to northern Europe. Instantaneous deposition of geochemically distinct volcanic ash over such large geographical areas gives rise to a powerful correlation tool with considerable potential for addressing a range of scientific questions. A prerequisite of this work is the establishment of regional tephrochronological frameworks that include well-constrained age estimates and robust geochemical signatures for each deposit. With distal sites revealing a complex record of previously unknown volcanic events, frameworks are regularly revised, and it has become apparent that some closely timed eruptions have similar geochemical signatures. The search for unique and robust geochemical fingerprints thus hinges on rigorous analysis by electron microprobe and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Historical developments and significant breakthroughs are presented to chart the revolution in correlation and precision dating over the last 50 years using tephrochronology and cryptotephrochronology.

Importance of nanoparticles and colloids from volcanic ash for riverine transport of trace elements to the ocean: evidence from glacial-fed rivers after the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull Volcano, Iceland

Volcanic ashes are often referenced as examples for natural nanoparticles, yet the particle size distribution <1000 nm is only rarely documented. We here report results of a geochemical study of glacial-fed rivers, glacial surface runoff, glacial base flow, and pure glacial meltwater from southern Iceland, that had been sampled 25 days after the explosive eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. In addition to the dissolved concentrations of rare earth elements (REE), Zr, Hf, Nb, and Th in the 450 nm-filtered waters, we also studied the respective filter residues (river particulates >450 nm) and volcanic ash. In spite of the low solubilities and high particle-reactivities of the elements studied, most water samples show high dissolved concentrations, such as up to 971 ng/kg of Ce and 501 ng/kg of Zr. Except for the pure glacial meltwater and glacial base flow, all waters display the same shale-normalized REE patterns with pronounced light and heavy REE depletion and positive Eu anomalies. While such patterns are unusual for river waters, they are similar to those of the respective river particulates and the volcanic ash, though at different concentration levels. The distribution of dissolved Zr, Hf, Nb, and Th in the waters also matches that of filter residues and ash. This strongly suggests that in all 450 nm-filtered river waters, the elements studied are associated with solid ash particles smaller than 450 nm. This reveals that volcanic ash-derived nanoparticles and colloids are present in these glacial-fed rivers and that such ultrafine particles control the trace element distribution in the surface runoff. Subsequent to explosive volcanic eruptions, these waters provide terrigenous input from landmasses to estuaries, that is characterized by a unique trace element signature and that subsequent to modification by estuarine processes delivers a pulse of nutrients to coastal seawater in regions not affected by plume fall-out.

Charge structure in volcanic plumes: a comparison of plume properties predicted by an integral plume model to observations of volcanic lightning during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Observations of volcanic lightning made using a lightning mapping array during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull allow the trajectory and growth of the volcanic plume to be determined. The lightning observations are compared with predictions of an integral model of volcanic plumes that includes descriptions of the interaction with wind and the effects of moisture. We show that the trajectory predicted by the integral model closely matches the observational data and the model well describes the growth of the plume downwind of the vent. Analysis of the lightning signals reveals information on the dominant charge structure within the volcanic plume. During the Eyjafjallajökull eruption both monopole and dipole charge structures were observed in the plume. By using the integral plume model, we propose the varying charge structure is connected to the availability of condensed water and low temperatures at high altitudes in the plume, suggesting ice formation may have contributed to the generation of a dipole charge structure via thunderstorm-style ice-based charging mechanisms, though overall this charging mechanism is believed to have had only a weak influence on the production of lightning.

Physicochemical and toxicological profiling of ash from the 2010 and 2011 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn volcanoes, Iceland using a rapid respiratory hazard assessment protocol

The six week eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 produced heavy ash fall in a sparsely populated area of southern and south eastern Iceland and disrupted European commercial flights for at least 6 days. We adopted a protocol for the rapid analysis of volcanic ash particles, for the purpose of informing respiratory health risk assessments. Ash collected from deposits underwent a multi-laboratory physicochemical and toxicological investigation of their mineralogical parameters associated with bio-reactivity, and selected in vitro toxicology assays related to pulmonary inflammatory responses. Ash from the eruption of Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011 was also studied. The results were benchmarked against ash from Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, which has been extensively studied since the onset of eruptive activity in 1995. For Eyjafjallajökull, the grain size distributions were variable: 2-13 vol% of the bulk samples were <4 µm, with the most explosive phases of the eruption generating abundant respirable particulate matter. In contrast, the Grímsvötn ash was almost uniformly coarse (<3.5 vol%<4 µm material). Surface area ranged from 0.3 to 7.7 m2 g(-1) for Eyjafjallajökull but was very low for Grímsvötn (<0.6 m2 g(-1)). There were few fibre-like particles (which were unrelated to asbestos) and the crystalline silica content was negligible in both eruptions, whereas Soufrière Hills ash was cristobalite-rich with a known potential to cause silicosis. All samples displayed a low ability to deplete lung antioxidant defences, showed little haemolysis and low acute cytotoxicity in human alveolar type-1 like epithelial cells (TT1). However, cell-free tests showed substantial hydroxyl radical generation in the presence of hydrogen peroxide for Grímsvötn samples, as expected for basaltic, Fe-rich ash. Cellular mediators MCP-1, IL-6, and IL-8 showed chronic pro-inflammatory responses in Eyjafjallajökull, Grímsvötn and Soufrière Hills samples, despite substantial differences in the sample mineralogy and eruptive styles. The value of the pro-inflammatory profiles in differentiating the potential respiratory health hazard of volcanic ashes remains uncertain in a protocol designed to inform public health risk assessment, and further research on their role in volcanic crises is warranted.

Effects of Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash on innate immune system responses and bacterial growth in vitro

BACKGROUND

On 20 March 2010, the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull erupted for the first time in 190 years. Despite many epidemiological reports showing effects of volcanic ash on the respiratory system, there are limited data evaluating cellular mechanisms involved in the response to ash. Epidemiological studies have observed an increase in respiratory infections in subjects and populations exposed to volcanic eruptions.

METHODS

We physicochemically characterized volcanic ash, finding various sizes of particles, as well as the presence of several transition metals, including iron. We examined the effect of Eyjafjallajökull ash on primary rat alveolar epithelial cells and human airway epithelial cells (20-100 µg/cm(2)), primary rat and human alveolar macrophages (5-20 µg/cm(2)), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PAO1) growth (3 µg/104 bacteria).

RESULTS

Volcanic ash had minimal effect on alveolar and airway epithelial cell integrity. In alveolar macrophages, volcanic ash disrupted pathogen-killing and inflammatory responses. In in vitro bacterial growth models, volcanic ash increased bacterial replication and decreased bacterial killing by antimicrobial peptides.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide potential biological plausibility for epidemiological data that show an association between air pollution exposure and the development of respiratory infections. These data suggest that volcanic ash exposure, while not seriously compromising lung cell function, may be able to impair innate immunity responses in exposed individuals.

Practical depolarization-ratio-based inversion procedure: lidar measurements of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the Netherlands

In this paper we present a technique for estimating optical backscatter and extinction profiles using lidar, which exploits the difference between the observed linear volume depolarization ratio at 355 nm and the corresponding expected aerosol-only depolarization ratio. The technique is specific to situations where a single strongly depolarizing species is present and the associated linear particulate depolarization ratio may be presumed to be known to within a reasonable degree of accuracy (on the order of 10%). The basic principle of the technique is extended to deal with situations where a depolarizing fraction is mixed with nondepolarizing aerosol. In general, since the relative depolarization interchannel calibration is much more stable than the absolute system calibration, the depolarization-based technique is easier to implement than conventional techniques that require a profile-by-profile calibration or, equivalently, an identification of aerosol-free altitude intervals. This in particular allows for unattended data analysis and makes the technique well-suited to be part of a broader (volcanic ash) surveillance system. The technique is demonstrated by applying it to the analysis of aerosol layers resulting from the 2010 eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The measurements were made at the Cabauw remote-sensing site in the central Netherlands. By comparing the results of the depolarization-based inversion with a more conventional manual inversion procedure as well as Raman lidar results, it is demonstrated that the technique can be successfully applied to the particular case of 355 nm depolarization lidar volcanic ash soundings, including cases in which the ash is mixed with nondepolarizing aerosol.

Anticipating land surface change

The interplay of human actions and natural processes over varied spatial and temporal scales can result in abrupt transitions between contrasting land surface states. Understanding these transitions is a key goal of sustainability science because they can represent abrupt losses of natural capital. This paper recognizes flickering between alternate land surface states in advance of threshold change and critical slowing down in advance of both threshold changes and noncritical transformation. The early warning signals we observe are rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within millimeter-resolution thickness measurements of tephra layers deposited in A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011. These signals reflect changing patterns of surface vegetation, which are known to provide early warning signals of critical transformations. They were observed toward migrating soil erosion fronts, cryoturbation limits, and expanding deflation zones, thus providing potential early warning signals of land surface change. The record of the spatial patterning of vegetation contained in contemporary tephra layers shows how proximity to land surface change could be assessed in the widespread regions affected by shallow layers of volcanic fallout (those that can be subsumed within the existing vegetation cover). This insight shows how we could use tephra layers in the stratigraphic record to identify "near misses," close encounters with thresholds that did not lead to tipping points, and thus provide additional tools for archaeology, sustainability science, and contemporary land management.

An extreme wind erosion event of the fresh Eyjafjallajökull 2010 volcanic ash

Volcanic eruptions can generate widespread deposits of ash that are subsequently subjected to erosive forces which causes detrimental effects on ecosystems. We measured wind erosion of the freshly deposited Eyjafjallajökull ash at a field site the first summer after the 2010 eruption. Over 30 wind erosion events occurred (June-October) at wind speeds > 10 m s(-1) in each storm with gusts up to 38.7 m s(-1). Surface transport over one m wide transect (surface to 150 cm height) reached > 11,800 kg m(-1) during the most intense storm event with a rate of 1,440 kg m(-1) hr(-1) for about 6½ hrs. This storm is among the most extreme wind erosion events recorded on Earth. The Eyjafjallajökull wind erosion storms caused dust emissions extending several hundred km from the volcano affecting both air quality and ecosystems showing how wind erosion of freshly deposited ash prolongs impacts of volcanic eruptions.