Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs

Prion forensics: a multidisciplinary approach to investigate CWD at an illegal deer carcass disposal site

Infectious prions are resistant to degradation and remain infectious in the environment for several years. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected in cervids inhabiting North America, the Nordic countries, and South Korea. CWD-prion spread is partially attributed to carcass transport and disposal. We employed a forensic approach to investigate an illegal carcass dump site connected with a CWD-positive herd. We integrated anatomic, genetic, and prion amplification methods to discover CWD-positive remains from six white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, using microsatellite markers, confirmed a portion originated from the CWD-infected herd. This approach provides a foundation for future studies of carcass prion transmission risk.

Beyond water and soil: Air emerges as a major reservoir of human pathogens

Assessing the risk of human pathogens in the environment is crucial for controlling the spread of diseases and safeguarding human health. However, conducting a thorough assessment of low-abundance pathogens in highly complex environmental microbial communities remains challenging. This study compiled a comprehensive catalog of 247 human-pathogenic bacterial taxa from global biosafety agencies and identified more than 78 million genome-specific markers (GSMs) from their 17,470 sequenced genomes. Subsequently, we analyzed these pathogens' types, abundance, and diversity within 474 shotgun metagenomic sequences obtained from diverse environmental sources. The results revealed that among the four habitats studied (air, water, soil, and sediment), the detection rate, diversity, and abundance of detectable pathogens in the air all exceeded those in the other three habitats. Air, sediment, and water environments exhibited identical dominant taxa, indicating that these human pathogens may have unique environmental vectors for their transmission or survival. Furthermore, we observed the impact of human activities on the environmental risk posed by these pathogens, where greater amounts of human activities significantly increased the abundance of human pathogenic bacteria, especially in water and air. These findings have remarkable implications for the environmental risk assessment of human pathogens, providing valuable insights into their presence and distribution across different habitats.

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Season of death, pathogen persistence and wildlife behaviour alter number of anthrax secondary infections from environmental reservoirs

An important part of infectious disease management is predicting factors that influence disease outbreaks, such as R, the number of secondary infections arising from an infected individual. Estimating R is particularly challenging for environmentally transmitted pathogens given time lags between cases and subsequent infections. Here, we calculated R for Bacillus anthracis infections arising from anthrax carcass sites in Etosha National Park, Namibia. Combining host behavioural data, pathogen concentrations and simulation models, we show that R is spatially and temporally variable, driven by spore concentrations at death, host visitation rates and early preference for foraging at infectious sites. While spores were detected up to a decade after death, most secondary infections occurred within 2 years. Transmission simulations under scenarios combining site infectiousness and host exposure risk under different environmental conditions led to dramatically different outbreak dynamics, from pathogen extinction (R < 1) to explosive outbreaks (R > 10). These transmission heterogeneities may explain variation in anthrax outbreak dynamics observed globally, and more generally, the critical importance of environmental variation underlying host-pathogen interactions. Notably, our approach allowed us to estimate the lethal dose of a highly virulent pathogen non-invasively from observational studies and epidemiological data, useful when experiments on wildlife are undesirable or impractical.

How does parasite environmental transmission stage concentration change before, during, and after disease outbreaks?

Outbreaks of environmentally transmitted parasites require that susceptible hosts encounter transmission stages in the environment and become infected, but we also know that transmission stages can be in the environment without triggering disease outbreaks. One challenge in understanding the relationship between environmental transmission stages and disease outbreaks is that the distribution and abundance of transmission stages outside of their hosts have been difficult to quantify. Thus, we have limited data about how changes in transmission stage abundance influence disease dynamics; moreover, we do not know whether the relationship between transmission stages and outbreaks differs among parasite species. We used digital PCR to quantify the environmental transmission stages of five parasites in six lakes in southeastern Michigan every 2 weeks from June to November 2021. At the same time, we quantified infection prevalence in hosts and host density. Our study focused on eight zooplankton host species (Daphnia spp. and Ceriodaphnia dubia) and five of their parasites from diverse taxonomic groups (bacteria, yeast, microsporidia, and oomycete) with different infection mechanisms. We found that parasite transmission stage concentration increased prior to disease outbreaks for all parasites. However, parasites differed significantly in the relative timing of peaks in transmission stage concentration and infection outbreaks. The "continuous shedder" parasites had transmission stage peaks at the same time as or slightly after the outbreak peaks. In contrast, parasites relying on host death for transmission ("obligate killers") had transmission stage peaks before outbreak peaks. For most parasites, lakes with outbreaks had higher spore concentrations than those without outbreaks, especially once an outbreak began; the exception was for a parasite, Pasteuria ramosa, with very strong genotypic specificity of infection. Overall, our results show that disease outbreaks are tightly linked to transmission stage concentration; outbreaks were preceded by increases in transmission stage concentration in the environment and then were fueled by the production of more transmission stages during the outbreak itself, with concentrations decreasing to pre-outbreak levels as outbreaks waned. Thus, tracking transmission stages in the environment improves our understanding of the drivers of disease outbreaks and reveals how parasite traits may affect these dynamics.

Host infection and disease-induced mortality modify species contributions to the environmental reservoir

Environmental pathogen reservoirs exist for many globally important diseases and can fuel epidemics, influence pathogen evolution, and increase the threat of host extinction. Species composition can be an important factor that shapes reservoir dynamics and ultimately determines the outcome of a disease outbreak. However, disease-induced mortality can change species communities, indicating that species responsible for environmental reservoir maintenance may change over time. Here we examine the reservoir dynamics of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats. We quantified changes in pathogen shedding, infection prevalence and intensity, host abundance, and the subsequent propagule pressure imposed by each species over time. We find that highly shedding species are important during pathogen invasion, but contribute less over time to environmental contamination as they also suffer the greatest declines. Less infected species remain more abundant, resulting in equivalent or higher propagule pressure. More broadly, we demonstrate that high infection intensity and subsequent mortality during disease progression can reduce the contributions of high-shedding species to long-term pathogen maintenance.

One Health Assessment of Bacillus anthracis Incidence and Detection in Anthrax-Endemic Areas of Pakistan

Anthrax, a severe zoonotic disease, is infrequently reported in anthrax-endemic regions of Pakistan. Despite clinical reports indicating its presence, particularly cutaneous anthrax, there is insufficient laboratory evidence regarding disease occurrence and environmental persistence. The present study aimed to confirm Bacillus anthracis presence, accountable for animal mortality and human infection, while exploring environmental transmission factors. Between March 2019 and July 2021, a total of 19 outbreaks were documented. Of these, 11 affected sheep/goats in Zhob district and 8 affected cattle/sheep in Bajour Agency. Clinical signs suggestive of Bacillus anthracis outbreak were observed in 11 animals. Blood and swab samples were collected for confirmation. The study followed a One Health approach, analyzing animal, environmental (soil/plant), and human samples. Of the 19 outbreaks, 11 were confirmed positive for anthrax based on growth characteristics, colony morphology, and PCR. Soil and plant root samples from the outbreak areas were collected and analyzed microscopically and molecularly. Cutaneous anthrax was observed in six humans, and swab samples were taken from the lesions. Human serum samples (n = 156) were tested for IgG antibodies against PA toxin and quantitative analysis of anthrax toxin receptor 1 (ANTXR1). Bacillus anthracis was detected in 65 out of 570 (11.40%) soil samples and 19 out of 190 (10%) plant root samples from the outbreak areas. Four out of six human samples from cutaneous anthrax lesions tested positive for Bacillus anthracis. Human anthrax seroprevalence was found to be 11% and 9% in two districts, with the highest rates among butchers and meat consumers. The highest ANTXR1 levels were observed in butchers, followed by meat consumers, farm employees, meat vendors, veterinarians, and farm owners. These findings highlight the persistence of anthrax in the region and emphasize the potential public health risks.

Variation in herbivore space use: comparing two savanna ecosystems with different anthrax outbreak patterns in southern Africa

BACKGROUND

The distribution of resources can affect animal range sizes, which in turn may alter infectious disease dynamics in heterogenous environments. The risk of pathogen exposure or the spatial extent of outbreaks may vary with host range size. This study examined the range sizes of herbivorous anthrax host species in two ecosystems and relationships between spatial movement behavior and patterns of disease outbreaks for a multi-host environmentally transmitted pathogen.

METHODS

We examined range sizes for seven host species and the spatial extent of anthrax outbreaks in Etosha National Park, Namibia and Kruger National Park, South Africa, where the main host species and outbreak sizes differ. We evaluated host range sizes using the local convex hull method at different temporal scales, within-individual temporal range overlap, and relationships between ranging behavior and species contributions to anthrax cases in each park. We estimated the spatial extent of annual anthrax mortalities and evaluated whether the extent was correlated with case numbers of a given host species.

RESULTS

Range size differences among species were not linearly related to anthrax case numbers. In Kruger the main host species had small range sizes and high range overlap, which may heighten exposure when outbreaks occur within their ranges. However, different patterns were observed in Etosha, where the main host species had large range sizes and relatively little overlap. The spatial extent of anthrax mortalities was similar between parks but less variable in Etosha than Kruger. In Kruger outbreaks varied from small local clusters to large areas and the spatial extent correlated with case numbers and species affected. Secondary host species contributed relatively few cases to outbreaks; however, for these species with large range sizes, case numbers positively correlated with outbreak extent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide new information on the spatiotemporal structuring of ranging movements of anthrax host species in two ecosystems. The results linking anthrax dynamics to host space use are correlative, yet suggest that, though partial and proximate, host range size and overlap may be contributing factors in outbreak characteristics for environmentally transmitted pathogens.

The persistence of time: the lifespan of Bacillus anthracis spores in environmental reservoirs

Anthrax is a lethal bacterial zoonosis primarily affecting herbivorous wildlife and livestock. Upon host death Bacillus anthracis vegetative cells form spores capable of surviving for years in soil. Anthrax transmission requires host exposure to large spore doses. Thus, conditions that facilitate higher spore concentrations or promote spore survival will increase the probability that a pathogen reservoir infects future hosts. We investigated abiotic and pathogen genomic variation in relation to spore concentrations in surface soils (0-1 cm depth) at 40 plains zebra (Equus quagga) anthrax carcass sites in Namibia. Specifically, how initial spore concentrations and spore survival were affected by seasonality associated with the timing of host mortality, local soil characteristics, and pathogen genomic variation. Zebras dying of anthrax in wet seasons-the peak season for anthrax in Etosha National Park-had soil spore concentrations 1.36 orders of magnitude higher than those that died in dry seasons. No other variables considered affected spore concentrations, and spore survival rates did not differ among sites. Surface soils at these pathogen reservoirs remained culture positive for a range of 3.8-10.4 years after host death. Future research could evaluate if seasonal patterns in spore concentrations are driven by differences in sporulation success or levels of terminal bacteremia.

Does environmental replication contribute to Bacillus anthracis spore persistence and infectivity in soil?

Bacillus anthracis is the zoonotic causal agent of anthrax. Its infectious form is the spore, which can persist in soil. Herbivores usually acquire the disease from grazing in spore-contaminated sites. There are two schools of thought regarding B. anthracis activities in soil. One contends the bacteria are obligate animal parasites and soil-based spores remain inert until taken up by another animal host. Others contend that spores can germinate in soil and the bacteria replicate and re-sporulate to maintain and/or increase spore numbers. This review discusses whether soil replication of B. anthracis is an important part of its life cycle.

Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Bacillus anthracis is a gram-positive, rod-shaped and endospore-forming bacterium that causes anthrax, a deadly disease to livestock and, occasionally, to humans. The spores are extremely hardy and may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai Lake basin that are environmentally suitable for B. anthracis distribution. Anthrax occurrence data from 2005-2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of B. anthracis. Principal Component Analysis and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis are a relatively high annual mean temperature of -2 to 0°C, (53%), soil type classified as; cambisols and kastanozems (35%), and a high human population density of 40 individuals per km2 (12%). The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for B. anthracis. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provide the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise both surveillance strategy and control strategy (administration of vaccine to livestock) in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.

A framework for integrating inferred movement behavior into disease risk models

Movement behavior is an important contributor to habitat selection and its incorporation in disease risk models has been somewhat neglected. The habitat preferences of host individuals affect their probability of exposure to pathogens. If preference behavior can be incorporated in ecological niche models (ENMs) when data on pathogen distributions are available, then variation in such behavior may dramatically impact exposure risk. Here we use data from the anthrax endemic system of Etosha National Park, Namibia, to demonstrate how integrating inferred movement behavior alters the construction of disease risk maps. We used a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model that associated soil, bioclimatic, and vegetation variables with the best available pathogen presence data collected at anthrax carcass sites to map areas of most likely Bacillus anthracis (the causative bacterium of anthrax) persistence. We then used a hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish foraging and non-foraging behavioral states along the movement tracks of nine zebra (Equus quagga) during the 2009 and 2010 anthrax seasons. The resulting tracks, decomposed on the basis of the inferred behavioral state, formed the basis of step-selection functions (SSFs) that used the MaxEnt output as a potential predictor variable. Our analyses revealed different risks of exposure during different zebra behavioral states, which were obscured when the full movement tracks were analyzed without consideration of the underlying behavioral states of individuals. Pathogen (or vector) distribution models may be misleading with regard to the actual risk faced by host animal populations when specific behavioral states are not explicitly accounted for in selection analyses. To more accurately evaluate exposure risk, especially in the case of environmentally transmitted pathogens, selection functions could be built for each identified behavioral state and then used to assess the comparative exposure risk across relevant states. The scale of data collection and analysis, however, introduces complexities and limitations for consideration when interpreting results.

Characterizing outbreak vulnerability in a stochastic SIS model with an external disease reservoir

In this article, we take a mathematical approach to the study of population-level disease spread, performing a quantitative and qualitative investigation of an SISκ model which is a susceptible-infectious-susceptible ( SIS ) model with exposure to an external disease reservoir. The external reservoir is non-dynamic, and exposure from the external reservoir is assumed to be proportional to the size of the susceptible population. The full stochastic system is modelled using a master equation formalism. A constant population size assumption allows us to solve for the stationary probability distribution, which is then used to investigate the predicted disease prevalence under a variety of conditions. By using this approach, we quantify outbreak vulnerability by performing the sensitivity analysis of disease prevalence to changing population characteristics. In addition, the shape of the probability density function is used to understand where, in parameter space, there is a transition from disease free, to disease present, and to a disease endemic system state. Finally, we use Kullback–Leibler divergence to compare our semi-analytical results for the SISκ model with more complex susceptible-infectious-recovered ( SIR ) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered ( SEIR ) models.

Immunological Evidence of Variation in Exposure and Immune Response to Bacillus anthracis in Herbivores of Kruger and Etosha National Parks

Exposure and immunity to generalist pathogens differ among host species and vary across spatial scales. Anthrax, caused by a multi-host bacterial pathogen, Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa and Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. These parks share many of the same potential host species, yet the main anthrax host in one (greater kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) in KNP and plains zebra (Equus quagga) in ENP) is only a minor host in the other. We investigated species and spatial patterns in anthrax mortalities, B. anthracis exposure, and the ability to neutralize the anthrax lethal toxin to determine if observed host mortality differences between locations could be attributed to population-level variation in pathogen exposure and/or immune response. Using serum collected from zebra and kudu in high and low incidence areas of each park (18- 20 samples/species/area), we estimated pathogen exposure from anti-protective antigen (PA) antibody response using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and lethal toxin neutralization with a toxin neutralization assay (TNA). Serological evidence of pathogen exposure followed mortality patterns within each system (kudus: 95% positive in KNP versus 40% in ENP; zebras: 83% positive in ENP versus 63% in KNP). Animals in the high-incidence area of KNP had higher anti-PA responses than those in the low-incidence area, but there were no significant differences in exposure by area within ENP. Toxin neutralizing ability was higher for host populations with lower exposure prevalence, i.e., higher in ENP kudus and KNP zebras than their conspecifics in the other park. These results indicate that host species differ in their exposure to and adaptive immunity against B. anthracis in the two parks. These patterns may be due to environmental differences such as vegetation, rainfall patterns, landscape or forage availability between these systems and their interplay with host behavior (foraging or other risky behaviors), resulting in differences in exposure frequency and dose, and hence immune response.

Population genomics of Bacillus anthracis from an anthrax hyperendemic area reveals transmission processes across spatial scales and unexpected within-host diversity

Genomic sequencing has revolutionized our understanding of bacterial disease epidemiology, but remains underutilized for zoonotic pathogens in remote endemic settings. Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, remains a threat to human and animal health and rural livelihoods in low- and middle-income countries. While the global genomic diversity of B. anthracis has been well-characterized, there is limited information on how its populations are genetically structured at the scale at which transmission occurs, critical for understanding the pathogen's evolution and transmission dynamics. Using a uniquely rich dataset, we quantified genome-wide SNPs among 73 B. anthracis isolates derived from 33 livestock carcasses sampled over 1 year throughout the Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania, a region hyperendemic for anthrax. Genome-wide SNPs distinguished 22 unique B. anthracis genotypes (i.e. SNP profiles) within the study area. However, phylogeographical structure was lacking, as identical SNP profiles were found throughout the study area, likely the result of the long and variable periods of spore dormancy and long-distance livestock movements. Significantly, divergent genotypes were obtained from spatio-temporally linked cases and even individual carcasses. The high number of SNPs distinguishing isolates from the same host is unlikely to have arisen during infection, as supported by our simulation models. This points to an unexpectedly wide transmission bottleneck for B. anthracis, with an inoculum comprising multiple variants being the norm. Our work highlights that inferring transmission patterns of B. anthracis from genomic data will require analytical approaches that account for extended and variable environmental persistence, as well as co-infection.

Competition between obligate and facultative scavengers and infection: vulture-jackal-anthrax dynamics in Etosha National Park

Different species of scavengers may compete for the same food in an ecosystem. This case study considers the competition between jackals and vultures in Etosha National Park in Namibia. While jackals are facultative scavengers, able to hunt for food if necessary, vultures are obligate scavengers wholly dependent on carcasses of animals like zebras for persistence. This competition may be further affected by outbreaks of infections such as anthrax, which temporarily increase the number of carcasses but lower the zebra population, acting in some ways as a third competitor. We use a dynamical system to model the interplay between competition dynamics and infection dynamics, and how it is affected by the nature of the competition: indirect (exploitative) or direct (interference). A bifurcation analysis using reproduction numbers shows how vultures' survival may depend on their direct competitive edge in reaching carcasses faster than jackals, and how the infection and the scavengers complicate each other's persistence. Vultures' interference causes a backward bifurcation which enables them to persist. One possible outcome is a "strange bedfellows" bistability in which anthrax and vultures persist only together, not apart, despite being competitors.

Disease or drought: environmental fluctuations release zebra from a potential pathogen-triggered ecological trap

When a transmission hotspot for an environmentally persistent pathogen establishes in otherwise high-quality habitat, the disease may exert a strong impact on a host population. However, fluctuating environmental conditions lead to heterogeneity in habitat quality and animal habitat preference, which may interrupt the overlap between selected and risky habitats. We evaluated spatio-temporal patterns in anthrax mortalities in a plains zebra (Equus quagga) population in Etosha National Park, Namibia, incorporating remote-sensing and host telemetry data. A higher proportion of anthrax mortalities of herbivores was detected in open habitats than in other habitat types. Resource selection functions showed that the zebra population shifted habitat selection in response to changes in rainfall and vegetation productivity. Average to high rainfall years supported larger anthrax outbreaks, with animals congregating in preferred open habitats, while a severe drought forced animals into otherwise less preferred habitats, leading to few anthrax mortalities. Thus, the timing of anthrax outbreaks was congruent with preference for open plains habitats and a corresponding increase in pathogen exposure. Given shifts in habitat preference, the overlap in high-quality habitat and high-risk habitat is intermittent, reducing the adverse consequences for the population.

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Molecular genotyping of 15 B. anthracis strains isolated in Eastern Siberia and Far East

Bacillus anthracis is a pathogenic bacterium, which causes anthrax disease. The ability of this bacterium to form spores, which can be preserved in soil for decades and cause outbreaks later on, makes this pathogen a serious problem for veterinary and health services of many countries. Siberia is one of the most anthrax-influenced regions of Russia. In this research we report on the results of genotyping based on whole genome SNP analysis of 15 strains, isolated on the territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in 1956-2018. In this research, we sequenced 15 genomes of B. anthracis strains isolated from infected humans and animals, and from soil samples from the territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in the period from 1956 to 2018. We used genomic sequences obtained in this study and 219 B. anthracis genomes available in the international GenBank database to perform a comparative analysis. As a result we detected 6400 chromosomal SNPs which allowed to differentiate the studied strains. We built phylogenetic reconstruction of the global B. anthracis population based on the detected SNPs using the Maximum Likelihood Method and described genetic diversity of the strains isolated on the territory of Eastern Siberia and the Far East. Strains, isolated on this territory from 1956 to 2018 belong to 5 different genetic groups: "Ames", "STI", "Tsiankovskii", "Siberia" and "Asia". The greatest diversity of the strains is registered for two regions of the southern part of Eastern Siberia - Tyva and Buryatia. This research expands current understanding of genetic diversity of B. anthracis strains circulating on the territory of Russia.

Can scavengers save zebras from anthrax? A modeling study

Namibia's Etosha National Park (ENP) is home to many different animals such as lions, jackals, hyenas, zebras, elephants, etc. Each year, grazing animals are infected and die from anthrax caused by the bacteria Bacillus anthracis. This increases the number of carcasses in the park, which serve as food for scavengers such as jackals. This study investigates the interplay between anthrax transmission in zebras and the scavenging of zebra carcasses in ENP, using a deterministic mathematical model to describe the population dynamics. We strive to answer the following research questions: Under what conditions can the presence of scavengers control anthrax outbreaks in zebra populations? Does carcass production by anthrax help or hurt scavengers in the long term? Standard qualitative analysis techniques distinguished outcomes (stable equilibria) using reproduction numbers as threshold quantities. We found that, when scavengers feed on anthrax-laden carcasses, the scavengers help the zebras, by eliminating potential infection zones for the zebras. In this way they reduce anthrax's spread by orders of magnitude. We also identify conditions under which the presence of anthrax benefits the scavengers, in terms of death-to-birth ratios for zebras, scavengers and anthrax.

Review: The risk of contracting anthrax from spore-contaminated soil - A military medical perspective

Anthrax is an infectious disease of relevance for military forces. Although spores of Bacillus anthracis obiquitously occur in soil, reports on soil-borne transmission to humans are scarce. In this narrative review, the potential of soil-borne transmission of anthrax to humans is discussed based on pathogen-specific characteristics and reports on anthrax in the course of several centuries of warfare. In theory, anthrax foci can pose a potential risk of infection to animals and humans if sufficient amounts of virulent spores are present in the soil even after an extended period of time. In praxis, however, transmissions are usually due to contacts with animal products and reported events of soil-based transmissions are scarce. In the history of warfare, even in the trenches of World War I, reported anthrax cases due to soil-contaminated wounds are virtually absent. Both the perspectives and the experience of the Western hemisphere and of former Soviet Republics are presented. Based on the accessible data as provided in the review, the transmission risk of anthrax by infections of wounds due to spore-contaminated soil is considered as very low under the most circumstance. Active historic anthrax foci may, however, still pose a risk to the health of deployed soldiers.

A Review of Arguments for the Existence of Latent Infections of Bacillus anthracis, and Research Needed to Understand their Role in the Outbreaks of Anthrax

Hugh-Jones and Blackburn and Turnbull’s collective World Health Organization (WHO) report did literature reviews of the theories and the bases for causes of anthrax outbreaks. Both comment on an often-mentioned suspicion that, even though unproven, latent infections are likely involved. Hugh-Jones suggested Gainer do an updated review of our present-day knowledge of latent infections, which was the basis for Gainer’s talk at the Biology of Anthrax Conference in Bari, Italy 2019. At the Conference Gainer met Vergnaud who presented anthrax genome studies that implied that the disease might have spread throughout Asia and from Europe to North America in a short time span of three or four centuries. Vergnaud wondered if latent infections might have played a role in the process. Several other presenters at the Conference also mentioned results that might suggest the existence of latent infections. Vergnaud subsequently looked into some of the old French literature about related observations, results, and discussions of early Pasteur vaccine usage (late 1800′s) and found mentions of suspected latent infections. The first part of the paper is a focused summary and interpretation of Hugh-Jones and Blackburn’s and Turnbull’s reviews specifically looking for suggestions of latent infections, a few additional studies with slightly different approaches, and several mentions made of presentations and posters at the Conference in Italy. In general, many different investigators in different areas and aspects of the anthrax study at the Conference found reasons to suspect the existence of latent infections. The authors conclude that the affected species most studied, including Homo sapiens, provide circumstantial evidence of latent infections and modified host resistance. The last part of the review explores the research needed to prove or disprove the existence of latent infections.

Environmental reservoir dynamics predict global infection patterns and population impacts for the fungal disease white-nose syndrome

Infectious diseases can have devastating effects on populations, and the ability of a pathogen to persist in the environment can amplify these impacts. Understanding how environmental pathogen reservoirs influence the number of individuals that become infected and suffer mortality is essential for disease control and prevention. We integrated disease data with population surveys to examine the influence of the environmental reservoir on disease impacts for a devastating fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome. We find that the extent of pathogen present in the environment predicts how many hosts become infected and suffer mortality during disease outbreaks. These results provide a target for managing contamination levels in the environment to reduce population impacts.

Disease outbreaks and pathogen introductions can have significant effects on host populations, and the ability of pathogens to persist in the environment can exacerbate disease impacts by fueling sustained transmission, seasonal epidemics, and repeated spillover events. While theory suggests that the presence of an environmental reservoir increases the risk of host declines and threat of extinction, the influence of reservoir dynamics on transmission and population impacts remains poorly described. Here we show that the extent of the environmental reservoir explains broad patterns of host infection and the severity of disease impacts of a virulent pathogen. We examined reservoir and host infection dynamics and the resulting impacts of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome, in 39 species of bats at 101 sites across the globe. Lower levels of pathogen in the environment consistently corresponded to delayed infection of hosts, fewer and less severe infections, and reduced population impacts. In contrast, an extensive and persistent environmental reservoir led to early and widespread infections and severe population declines. These results suggest that continental differences in the persistence or decay of P. destructans in the environment altered infection patterns in bats and influenced whether host populations were stable or experienced severe declines from this disease. Quantifying the impact of the environmental reservoir on disease dynamics can provide specific targets for reducing pathogen levels in the environment to prevent or control future epidemics.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

BACKGROUND

Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d'Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Georeferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche-and consequently in geographic distribution-between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Coalescence modeling of intrainfection Bacillus anthracis populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (Equus quagga). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

Linking Geospatial and Laboratory Sciences to Define Mechanisms behind Landscape Level Drivers of Anthrax Outbreaks

Background: A seasonal predictor of anthrax outbreaks is rainfall, which may be approximated by NDVI using remote sensing. How rainfall or vegetative green-up influences bacterial physiology or microecology to drive anthrax outbreaks is not known. Methods: Rainfall and NDVI dependency of anthrax epizootics was demonstrated with global and local phenological analysis. Growth analysis of B. anthracis in response to pH and calcium gradients was carried out. The influence of pH and calcium levels on expression of toxin and sporulation related proteins in broth culture models was characterized using engineered B. anthracis luminescent reporter strains. Results: Short-term bacterial growth and longer-term bacterial survival were altered by pH and calcium. These conditions also played a major role in pagA and sspB promoter-driven luminescent expression in B. anthracis. Conclusions: Rainfall induced cycling of pH and calcium in soils plays a plausible role in amplifying spore load and persistence in endemic anthrax zones. Observed evidence of B. anthracis favoring soil alkalinity and high soil calcium levels in the environment were linked to physiological conditions that promote bacterial growth, survival, toxin secretion and spore formation; illustrating the utility of bringing laboratory-based (controlled) microbiology experiments into the fold of zoonotic disease ecology.

An unusual case of bovine anthrax in the canton of Jura, Switzerland in 2017

Background

Anthrax caused by Bacillus anthracis is a zoonotic disease mainly affecting herbivores. The last Swiss outbreak was over 20 years ago. We describe a recent anthrax outbreak involving two cows from the same herd. One cow was designated as a peracute clinical case with sudden death and typical lung lesions, while the other cow presented with protracted fever and abortion.

Case presentation

On April 29th 2017, a 3.5-year-old Montbéliard dairy cow was found dead while out at pasture with haemorrhage from the nose. The veterinarian suspected pneumonia and performed a necropsy on site. Subsequently, a lung and liver sample were sent to the laboratory. Unexpectedly, Bacillus anthracis was isolated, a pathogen not found in Switzerland for decades. Several days later, a second cow from the same farm showed signs of abortion after protracted fever. Since these symptoms are not typical for anthrax, and the bacteria could not be demonstrated in blood samples from this animal, a necropsy was performed under appropriate biosafety measures. Subsequently, Bacillus anthracis could be isolated from the placenta and the sublumbal lymph nodes but not from the blood, liver, spleen and kidney. The outbreak strain (17OD930) was shown to belong to the lineage B.Br.CNEVA, the same as Swiss strains from previous outbreaks in the region. We speculate that the disease came from a temporarily opened cave system that is connected to an old carcass burial site and was flushed by heavy rainfall preceding the outbreak.

Conclusion

Even in countries like Switzerland, where anthrax is very rare, new cases can occur after unusual weather conditions or ground disturbance. It is important for public officials to be aware of this risk to avoid possible spread.

Insights from Bacillus anthracis strains isolated from permafrost in the tundra zone of Russia

This article describes Bacillus anthracis strains isolated during an outbreak of anthrax on the Yamal Peninsula in the summer of 2016 and independently in Yakutia in 2015. A common feature of these strains is their conservation in permafrost, from which they were extracted either due to the thawing of permafrost (Yamal strains) or as the result of paleontological excavations (Yakut strains). All strains isolated on the Yamal share an identical genotype belonging to lineage B.Br.001/002, pointing to a common source of infection in a territory over 250 km in length. In contrast, during the excavations in Yakutia, three genetically different strains were recovered from a single pit. One strain belongs to B.Br.001/002, and whole genome sequence analysis showed that it is most closely related to the Yamal strains in spite of the remoteness of Yamal from Yakutia. The two other strains contribute to two different branches of A.Br.008/011, one of the remarkable polytomies described so far in the B. anthracis species. The geographic distribution of the strains belonging to A.Br.008/011 is suggesting that the polytomy emerged in the thirteenth century, in combination with the constitution of a unified Mongol empire extending from China to Eastern Europe. We propose an evolutionary model for B. anthracis recent evolution in which the B lineage spread throughout Eurasia and was subsequently replaced by the A lineage except in some geographically isolated areas.

Insights from Bacillus anthracis strains isolated from permafrost in the tundra zone of Russia

This article describes Bacillus anthracis strains isolated during an outbreak of anthrax on the Yamal Peninsula in the summer of 2016 and independently in Yakutia in 2015. A common feature of these strains is their conservation in permafrost, from which they were extracted either due to the thawing of permafrost (Yamal strains) or as the result of paleontological excavations (Yakut strains). All strains isolated on the Yamal share an identical genotype belonging to lineage B.Br.001/002, pointing to a common source of infection in a territory over 250 km in length. In contrast, during the excavations in Yakutia, three genetically different strains were recovered from a single pit. One strain belongs to B.Br.001/002, and whole genome sequence analysis showed that it is most closely related to the Yamal strains in spite of the remoteness of Yamal from Yakutia. The two other strains contribute to two different branches of A.Br.008/011, one of the remarkable polytomies described so far in the B. anthracis species. The geographic distribution of the strains belonging to A.Br.008/011 is suggesting that the polytomy emerged in the thirteenth century, in combination with the constitution of a unified Mongol empire extending from China to Eastern Europe. We propose an evolutionary model for B. anthracis recent evolution in which the B lineage spread throughout Eurasia and was subsequently replaced by the A lineage except in some geographically isolated areas.

The Bacillus cereus Group: Bacillus Species with Pathogenic Potential

The Bacillus cereus group includes several Bacillus species with closely related phylogeny. The most well-studied members of the group, B. anthracis, B. cereus, and B. thuringiensis, are known for their pathogenic potential. Here, we present the historical rationale for speciation and discuss shared and unique features of these bacteria. Aspects of cell morphology and physiology, and genome sequence similarity and gene synteny support close evolutionary relationships for these three species. For many strains, distinct differences in virulence factor synthesis provide facile means for species assignment. B. anthracis is the causative agent of anthrax. Some B. cereus strains are commonly recognized as food poisoning agents, but strains can also cause localized wound and eye infections as well as systemic disease. Certain B. thuringiensis strains are entomopathogens and have been commercialized for use as biopesticides, while some strains have been reported to cause infection in immunocompromised individuals. In this article we compare and contrast B. anthracis, B. cereus, and B. thuringiensis, including ecology, cell structure and development, virulence attributes, gene regulation and genetic exchange systems, and experimental models of disease.

Decoupling environmental effects and host population dynamics for anthrax, a classic reservoir-driven disease

Quantitative models describing environmentally-mediated disease transmission rarely focus on the independent contribution of recruitment and the environment on the force of infection driving outbreaks. In this study we attempt to investigate the interaction between external factors and host’s population dynamics in determining the outbreaks of some indirectly transmitted diseases. We first built deterministic and stochastic compartmental models based on anthrax which were parameterized using information from literature and complemented with field observations. Our force of infection function was derived modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process that depends on the pathogen’s dispersion effort. After accounting for individual heterogeneity in pathogen’s dispersion effort, we allowed the force of infection to vary seasonally according to external factors recreating a scenario in which disease transmission increases in response to an environmental variable. Using simulations we demonstrate that anthrax disease dynamics in mid-latitude grasslands is decoupled from hosts population dynamics. When seasonal forcing was ignored, outbreaks matched hosts reproductive events, a scenario that is not realistic in nature. Instead, when allowing the force of infection to vary seasonally, outbreaks were only present in years were environmental variables were appropriate for the outbreaks to develop. We used the stochastic formulation of the force of infection to derive R₀ under scenarios with different assumptions. The derivation of R₀ allowed us to conclude that during epizootic years, pathogen contribution to disease persistence is nearly independent of dispersion. In endemic years, only pathogens with high dispersion significantly prevent disease extinction. Finally, we used our model in a maximum likelihood framework to estimate the parameters that determined a significant anthrax outbreak in Montana in 2008. Our study highlights the importance of the environment in determining anthrax outbreak intensity and could be useful to predict future events that could result in significant wildlife and domestic livestock losses.

Blowflies as vectors of Bacillus anthracis in the Kruger National Park

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis, is endemic in the Kruger National Park (KNP). The epidemiology of B. anthracis is dependent on various factors including vectors.The aims of this study were to examine non-biting blowflies for the presence of B. anthracis externally and internally after feeding on an anthrax-infected carcass and to determine the role of flies in disseminating B. anthracis onto the surrounding vegetation.During an anthrax outbreak in 2014 in the endemic Pafuri region, blowflies associated with two 2–3-day-old anthrax-positive carcasses (kudu and impala) as well as surrounding vegetation were collected and investigated for the presence of B. anthracis spores.The non-biting blowflies (n = 57) caught included Chrysomya albiceps, Ch. marginalis and Lucilia spp. Bacillus anthracis spores were isolated from 65.5% and 25.0% of blowflies collected from the kudu and impala carcasses, respectively.Chrysomya albiceps and Ch. marginalis have the potential to disseminate B. anthracis to vegetation from infected carcasses and may play a role in the epidemiology of anthrax in the KNP. No B. anthracis spores were initially isolated from leaves of the surrounding vegetation using selective media. However, 170 and 500 spores were subsequently isolated from Abutilon angulatum and Acacia sp. leaves, respectively, when using sheep blood agar.Conservation implications: The results obtained in this study have no direct conservation implications and only assist in the understanding of the spread of the disease.

Predators and nutrient availability favor protozoa-resisting bacteria in aquatic systems

The long co-existence of bacteria and protozoa has led to the development of bacterial protozoa resistance strategies, which are suggested to serve as drivers for the evolution of pathogenic bacteria. However, the ecological mechanisms underpinning selection for protozoa-resistance in aquatic bacteria are poorly known. To assess the role of nutrient availability and predation-pressure on selection for protozoa-resisting bacteria (PRB), an enrichment-dilution experiment was designed using laboratory microcosms containing natural lake water. PRB was monitored by screening 16S rRNA amplicon sequence data for reads assigned to bacteria that previously has been shown to resist degradation by amoebae. To estimate the effects of the microbial food web dynamics (microscopy of; heterotrophic bacteria, phytoplankton, protozoa and rotifers) and physicochemical variables on the PRB abundance in the study system, a joint species distribution modelling approach was used. The predation-pressure (ratio between predator and bacterial biomass) had a positive effect on the abundance of the PRB genus Mycobacterium, while perturbation (enrichment and dilution) favored the PRB genus Pseudomonas that dominated the bacterial community in the disturbed systems. Our results show that PRB with different ecological strategies can be expected in water of high and intermediate nutrient levels and after major disturbances of an aquatic system.

Spores and soil from six sides: interdisciplinarity and the environmental biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)

Environmentally transmitted diseases are comparatively poorly understood and managed, and their ecology is particularly understudied. Here we identify challenges of studying environmental transmission and persistence with a six-sided interdisciplinary review of the biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis). Anthrax is a zoonotic disease capable of maintaining infectious spore banks in soil for decades (or even potentially centuries), and the mechanisms of its environmental persistence have been the topic of significant research and controversy. Where anthrax is endemic, it plays an important ecological role, shaping the dynamics of entire herbivore communities. The complex eco-epidemiology of anthrax, and the mysterious biology of Bacillus anthracis during its environmental stage, have necessitated an interdisciplinary approach to pathogen research. Here, we illustrate different disciplinary perspectives through key advances made by researchers working in Etosha National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Namibia that has exemplified the complexities of the enzootic process of anthrax over decades of surveillance. In Etosha, the role of scavengers and alternative routes (waterborne transmission and flies) has proved unimportant relative to the long-term persistence of anthrax spores in soil and their infection of herbivore hosts. Carcass deposition facilitates green-ups of vegetation to attract herbivores, potentially facilitated by the role of anthrax spores in the rhizosphere. The underlying seasonal pattern of vegetation, and herbivores' immune and behavioural responses to anthrax risk, interact to produce regular 'anthrax seasons' that appear to be a stable feature of the Etosha ecosystem. Through the lens of microbiologists, geneticists, immunologists, ecologists, epidemiologists, and clinicians, we discuss how anthrax dynamics are shaped at the smallest scale by population genetics and interactions within the bacterial communities up to the broadest scales of ecosystem structure. We illustrate the benefits and challenges of this interdisciplinary approach to disease ecology, and suggest ways anthrax might offer insights into the biology of other important pathogens. Bacillus anthracis, and the more recently emerged Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, share key features with other environmentally transmitted pathogens, including several zoonoses and panzootics of special interest for global health and conservation efforts. Understanding the dynamics of anthrax, and developing interdisciplinary research programs that explore environmental persistence, is a critical step forward for understanding these emerging threats.

Ecological suitability modeling for anthrax in the Kruger National Park, South Africa

The spores of the soil-borne bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, which causes anthrax are highly resistant to adverse environmental conditions. Under ideal conditions, anthrax spores can survive for many years in the soil. Anthrax is known to be endemic in the northern part of Kruger National Park (KNP) in South Africa (SA), with occasional epidemics spreading southward. The aim of this study was to identify and map areas that are ecologically suitable for the harboring of B. anthracis spores within the KNP. Anthrax surveillance data and selected environmental variables were used as inputs to the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling method. Anthrax positive carcasses from 1988–2011 in KNP (n = 597) and a total of 40 environmental variables were used to predict and evaluate their relative contribution to suitability for anthrax occurrence in KNP. The environmental variables that contributed the most to the occurrence of anthrax were soil type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation. Apart from the endemic Pafuri region, several other areas within KNP were classified as ecologically suitable. The outputs of this study could guide future surveillance efforts to focus on predicted suitable areas for anthrax, since the KNP currently uses passive surveillance to detect anthrax outbreaks.

DUST-BATHING BEHAVIORS OF AFRICAN HERBIVORES AND THE POTENTIAL RISK OF INHALATIONAL ANTHRAX

:  Anthrax in herbivorous wildlife and livestock is generally assumed to be transmitted via ingestion or inhalation of Bacillus anthracis spores. Although recent studies have highlighted the importance of the ingestion route for anthrax transmission, little is known about the inhalational route in natural systems. Dust bathing could aerosolize soilborne pathogens such as B. anthracis, exposing dust-bathing individuals to inhalational infections. We investigated the potential role of dust bathing in the transmission of inhalational anthrax to herbivorous wildlife in Etosha National Park, Namibia, an area with endemic seasonal anthrax outbreaks. We 1) cultured soils from dust-bathing sites for the presence and concentration of B. anthracis spores, 2) monitored anthrax carcass sites, the locations with the highest B. anthracis concentrations, for evidence of dust bathing, including a site where a zebra died of anthrax on a large dust bath, and 3) characterized the ecology and seasonality of dust bathing in plains zebra ( Equus quagga), blue wildebeest ( Connochaetes taurinus), and African savanna elephant ( Loxodonta africana) using a combination of motion-sensing camera traps and direct observations. Only two out of 83 dust-bath soils were positive for B. anthracis, both with low spore concentrations (≤20 colony-forming units per gram). We also detected no evidence of dust baths occurring at anthrax carcass sites, perhaps due to carcass-induced changes in soil composition that may deter dust bathing. Finally, despite observing some seasonal variation in dust bathing, preliminary evidence suggests that the seasonality of dust bathing and anthrax mortalities are not correlated. Thus, although dust bathing creates a dramatic cloud of aerosolized soil around an individual, our microbiologic, ecologic, and behavioral results in concert demonstrate that dust bathing is highly unlikely to transmit inhalational anthrax infections.

Resource-driven encounters among consumers and implications for the spread of infectious disease

Animals share a variety of common resources, which can be a major driver of conspecific encounter rates. In this work, we implement a spatially explicit mathematical model for resource visitation behaviour in order to examine how changes in resource availability can influence the rate of encounters among consumers. Using simulations and asymptotic analysis, we demonstrate that, under a reasonable set of assumptions, the relationship between resource availability and consumer conspecific encounters is not monotonic. We characterize how the maximum encounter rate and associated critical resource density depend on system parameters like consumer density and the maximum distance from which consumers can detect and respond to resources. The assumptions underlying our theoretical model and analysis are motivated by observations of large aggregations of black-backed jackals at carcasses generated by seasonal outbreaks of anthrax among herbivores in Etosha National Park, Namibia. As non-obligate scavengers, black-backed jackals use carcasses as a supplemental food resource when they are available. While jackals do not appear to acquire disease from ingesting anthrax carcasses, changes in their movement patterns in response to changes in carcass abundance do alter jackals' conspecific encounter rate in ways that may affect the transmission dynamics of other diseases, such as rabies. Our theoretical results provide a method to quantify and analyse the hypothesis that the outbreak of a fatal disease among herbivores can potentially facilitate outbreaks of an entirely different disease among jackals. By analysing carcass visitation data, we find support for our model's prediction that the number of conspecific encounters at resource sites decreases with additional increases in resource availability. Whether or not this site-dependent effect translates to an overall decrease in encounters depends, unexpectedly, on the relationship between the maximum distance of detection and the resource density.

Temporal dynamics in microbial soil communities at anthrax carcass sites

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is a globally distributed disease affecting primarily herbivorous mammals. It is caused by the soil-dwelling and spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis. The dormant B. anthracis spores become vegetative after ingestion by grazing mammals. After killing the host, B. anthracis cells return to the soil where they sporulate, completing the lifecycle of the bacterium. Here we present the first study describing temporal microbial soil community changes in Etosha National Park, Namibia, after decomposition of two plains zebra (Equus quagga) anthrax carcasses. To circumvent state-associated-challenges (i.e. vegetative cells/spores) we monitored B. anthracis throughout the period using cultivation, qPCR and shotgun metagenomic sequencing.

RESULTS

The combined results suggest that abundance estimation of spore-forming bacteria in their natural habitat by DNA-based approaches alone is insufficient due to poor recovery of DNA from spores. However, our combined approached allowed us to follow B. anthracis population dynamics (vegetative cells and spores) in the soil, along with closely related organisms from the B. cereus group, despite their high sequence similarity. Vegetative B. anthracis abundance peaked early in the time-series and then dropped when cells either sporulated or died. The time-series revealed that after carcass deposition, the typical semi-arid soil community (e.g. Frankiales and Rhizobiales species) becomes temporarily dominated by the orders Bacillales and Pseudomonadales, known to contain plant growth-promoting species.

CONCLUSION

Our work indicates that complementing DNA based approaches with cultivation may give a more complete picture of the ecology of spore forming pathogens. Furthermore, the results suggests that the increased vegetation biomass production found at carcass sites is due to both added nutrients and the proliferation of microbial taxa that can be beneficial for plant growth. Thus, future B. anthracis transmission events at carcass sites may be indirectly facilitated by the recruitment of plant-beneficial bacteria.

Zebra migration strategies and anthrax in Etosha National Park, Namibia

Partial seasonal migration is ubiquitous in many species. We documented this phenomenon in plains zebra (Equus burchelli) in Etosha National Park, Namibia (ENP), and provided a cost-benefit analysis as it relates to the spatial distribution of water, vegetation and endemic anthrax. This analysis draws upon two years of ENP zebra movement data that reveal two sub-populations: migrators and non-migrators. Migrators are shown to be behaviorally dominant in the way they utilize space and use water holes. We raise the possibility that the co-existence of these two groups reflects an evolutionary process, and the size of each group maintains evolutionary equilibrium.

Draft Genome Sequences of Two Bacillus anthracis Strains from Etosha National Park, Namibia

Bacillus anthracis strains K1 and K2 were isolated from two plains zebra anthrax carcasses in Etosha National Park, Namibia. These are draft genomes obtained by Illumina MiSeq sequencing of isolates collected from culture of blood-soaked soil from each carcass.