1
|
Lin Z, Cai Z, Li L, Wei Y, Ling Q. c-Jun N-terminal kinase 1/P53 signaling mediates intrinsic apoptosis of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) hepatocytes under heat stress. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 947:174664. [PMID: 38997017 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2024] [Revised: 06/20/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024]
Abstract
The increasing frequency of high-temperature extremes threatens largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, a significant fish for freshwater ecosystems and aquaculture. Our previous studies at the transcript level suggested that heat stress induces hepatic apoptosis in largemouth bass. In the current study, we sought to validate these findings and further investigate the role of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK)/P53 signaling in hepatic apoptosis under heat stress. First, heat treatments were conducted in vivo and in vitro under different temperatures: 28 °C, 32 °C, and 37 °C. In primary hepatocytes subjected to heat treatment, cell viability was evaluated via the Cell Counting Kit-8, while mitochondrial membrane potential and nuclear morphology were assessed through JC-1 and Hoechst 33258 staining, respectively. We observed reductions in both cell viability and mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm), along with alterations in nuclear morphology, in primary hepatocytes exposed to heat stress at temperatures of 32 °C and 37 °C. Quantitative real-time PCR revealed significant alterations in the expression profiles of intrinsic apoptosis-related genes within liver tissues under heat stress. Immunohistochemistry analysis revealed that JNK1 signaling increased as the temperature increased, JNK2 expression increased only at 37 °C, and JNK3 expression did not change with temperature. We speculate that JNK1 and JNK2 have pro- and anti-apoptotic effects, respectively. Western blot analysis conducted on cultured hepatocytes further validated these findings. JNK inhibition reduced hepatocyte apoptosis, improved nuclear morphology, and maintained ΔΨm even after 37 °C treatment. These results not only confirm that heat stress led to intrinsic apoptosis of hepatocytes but also indicated that JNK1 could mediate P53 expression and activate caspase-dependent intrinsic apoptosis in largemouth bass hepatocytes under such conditions. This study illuminates the physiological responses of largemouth bass to acute heat stress, offering valuable insights into the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes and the sustainability of aquaculture.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zijie Lin
- School of Biology and Basic Medical Sciences, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, 215000, China
| | - Zhiying Cai
- School of Biology and Basic Medical Sciences, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, 215000, China
| | - Lingling Li
- School of Biology and Basic Medical Sciences, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, 215000, China
| | - Yekai Wei
- School of Biology and Basic Medical Sciences, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, 215000, China
| | - Qufei Ling
- School of Biology and Basic Medical Sciences, Suzhou Medical College of Soochow University, 215000, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Alabia ID, Molinos JG, Hirata T, Narita D, Hirawake T. Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0304718. [PMID: 38843266 PMCID: PMC11156307 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Irene D. Alabia
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
| | | | - Takafumi Hirata
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Daiju Narita
- Graduate School and College of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Toru Hirawake
- National Institute of Polar Research, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Tachikawa, Tokyo, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Sharifian S, Mortazavi MS, Mohebbi Nozar SL. Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10177. [PMID: 38702432 PMCID: PMC11068754 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-61008-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/06/2024] Open
Abstract
The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sana Sharifian
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Seddiq Mortazavi
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
| | - Seyedeh Laili Mohebbi Nozar
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Lee MA, Mondal S, Teng SY, Nguyen ML, Lin P, Wu JH, Mondal BK. Fishery-based adaption to climate change: the case of migratory species flathead grey mullet ( Mugil cephalus L.) in Taiwan Strait, Northwestern Pacific. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15788. [PMID: 37663299 PMCID: PMC10474836 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 07/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The flathead gray mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) is a cosmopolitan fish that lives in warm and temperate zones over 42°N-42°S. It is a key fish species for industrial fishing off coastal Taiwan. Gray mullets enter the coastal waters of the southeastern Taiwan Strait (22°N-25°N) to spawn in winter and feed in the coastal and tidal waters of China (25°N-30°N). From 1986 to 2010, the annual catch of gray mullet decreased substantially and remained low. Although the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are recognized to affect gray mullet migration, the increase in sea surface temperature may be the main cause of the aforementioned decrease. We explored how weather changes affect fishing conditions and patterns at the gray mullet fishing grounds in Taiwan's coastal areas. Because of the decrease in gray mullet catches, the most common method for catching gray mullet in Taiwan's coastal areas between 1990 and 2010 was the use of drift or trawl nets instead of two-boat purse-seiner fleets. Since 2012, purse-seiner fleets have become the most common method for catching gray mullet. This trend indicates that the local fishing industry is adapting to changing environmental conditions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ming An Lee
- Center of Excellence for Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
- Environmental Biology & Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
| | - Sandipan Mondal
- Center of Excellence for Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
- Environmental Biology & Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
| | - Sheng-Yuan Teng
- Environmental Biology & Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
| | - Manh-Linh Nguyen
- Environmental Biology & Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
- Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Taiwan University, Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Platinasoka Lin
- Taiwan Ocean Conservation and Fishery Sustainability Foundation, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Jun-Hong Wu
- Environmental Biology & Fishery Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung, Zhongzheng District, Taiwan
| | - Biraj Kanti Mondal
- Department of Geography, Netaji Subhas Open University, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Prellezo R, Da-Rocha JM, Palomares MLD, Sumaila UR, Villasante S. Building climate resilience, social sustainability and equity in global fisheries. NPJ OCEAN SUSTAINABILITY 2023; 2:10. [PMID: 38694134 PMCID: PMC11062296 DOI: 10.1038/s44183-023-00017-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/04/2024]
Abstract
Although the Paris Agreement establishes targets to limit global warming-including carbon market mechanisms-little research has been done on developing operational tools to achieve them. To cover this gap, we use CO2 permit markets towards a market-based solutions (MBS) scheme to implement blue carbon climate targets for global fisheries. The scheme creates a scarcity value for the right to not sequester blue carbon, generating an asset of carbon sequestration allowances based on historical landings, which are considered initial allowances. We use the scheme to identify fishing activities that could be reduced because they are biologically negative, economically inefficient, and socially unequitable. We compute the annual willingness to sequester carbon considering the CO2e trading price for 2022 and the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2), for years 2025, 2030 and 2050. The application of the MBS scheme will result in 0.122 Gt CO2e sequestered or US$66 billion of potential benefits per year when considering 2050 SC-CO2. The latter also implies that if CO2e trading prices reach the 2050 social cost of carbon, around 75% of the landings worldwide would be more valuable as carbon than as foodstuff in the market. Our findings provide the global economy and policymakers with an alternative for the fisheries sector, which grapples with the complexity to find alternatives to reallocate invested capital. They also provide a potential solution to make climate resilience, social sustainability and equity of global fisheries real, scientific and practical for a wide range of social-ecological and political contexts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Raul Prellezo
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA). Txatxarramendi Ugartea z/g, Sukarrieta - Bizkaia, Spain
| | - José María Da-Rocha
- ITAM. Centro de Investigación Económica (CIE), Av. Camino Santa Teresa 930 C.P. 10700, CDMx, Mexico; Universidade de Vigo. Facultade de Ciencias Empresariais e Turismo, As Lagoas, Campus Universitario, 32004 Ourense, Spain
- ECOSOT, Department of Economic Theory, Universidade de Vigo, 36200 Vigo, Spain
| | - Maria L. D. Palomares
- Sea Around Us Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries and the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, Vancouver, BC Canada V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Sebastian Villasante
- EqualSea Lab-CRETUS, Department of Applied Economics, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Mazaris AD, Dimitriadis C, Papazekou M, Schofield G, Doxa A, Chatzimentor A, Turkozan O, Katsanevakis S, Lioliou A, Abalo-Morla S, Aksissou M, Arcangeli A, Attard V, El Hili HA, Atzori F, Belda EJ, Ben Nakhla L, Berbash AA, Bjorndal KA, Broderick AC, Camiñas JA, Candan O, Cardona L, Cetkovic I, Dakik N, de Lucia GA, Dimitrakopoulos PG, Diryaq S, Favilli C, Fortuna CM, Fuller WJ, Gallon S, Hamza A, Jribi I, Ben Ismail M, Kamarianakis Y, Kaska Y, Korro K, Koutsoubas D, Lauriano G, Lazar B, March D, Marco A, Minotou C, Monsinjon JR, Naguib NM, Palialexis A, Piroli V, Sami K, Sönmez B, Sourbès L, Sözbilen D, Vandeperre F, Vignes P, Xanthakis M, Köpsel V, Peck MA. Priorities for Mediterranean marine turtle conservation and management in the face of climate change. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 339:117805. [PMID: 37043912 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117805] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
As climate-related impacts threaten marine biodiversity globally, it is important to adjust conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. Translating scientific knowledge into practical management, however, is often complicated due to resource, economic and policy constraints, generating a knowledge-action gap. To develop potential solutions for marine turtle conservation, we explored the perceptions of key actors across 18 countries in the Mediterranean. These actors evaluated their perceived relative importance of 19 adaptation and mitigation measures that could safeguard marine turtles from climate change. Of importance, despite differences in expertise, experience and focal country, the perceptions of researchers and management practitioners largely converged with respect to prioritizing adaptation and mitigation measures. Climate change was considered to have the greatest impacts on offspring sex ratios and suitable nesting sites. The most viable adaptation/mitigation measures were considered to be reducing other pressures that act in parallel to climate change. Ecological effectiveness represented a key determinant for implementing proposed measures, followed by practical applicability, financial cost, and societal cost. This convergence in opinions across actors likely reflects long-standing initiatives in the Mediterranean region towards supporting knowledge exchange in marine turtle conservation. Our results provide important guidance on how to prioritize measures that incorporate climate change in decision-making processes related to the current and future management and protection of marine turtles at the ocean-basin scale, and could be used to guide decisions in other regions globally. Importantly, this study demonstrates a successful example of how interactive processes can be used to fill the knowledge-action gap between research and management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Antonios D Mazaris
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
| | - Charalampos Dimitriadis
- Management Unit of Zakynthos and Ainos National Parks and Protected Areas of the Ionian Islands, Zakynthos, Greece
| | - Maria Papazekou
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Gail Schofield
- School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
| | - Aggeliki Doxa
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece; Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Anastasia Chatzimentor
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Oguz Turkozan
- Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Science, Department of Biology, Aydın, Turkiye
| | | | - Aphrodite Lioliou
- Managing Authority of European Territorial Cooperation Programmes (INTERREG), Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Sara Abalo-Morla
- Institut d' Investigació per a La Gestió de Zones Costaneres (IGIC), Universitat Politècnica de València, València, Spain; Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo (COV-IEO), CSIC, Vigo, Spain
| | - Mustapha Aksissou
- Laboratoire Ecologie, Systématique, Conservation de La Biodiversité (LESCB), Faculté des Sciences de Tétouan, Université Abdelmalek Essaâdi, Tetouan, Morocco
| | - Antonella Arcangeli
- Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA, Rome, Italy
| | | | | | - Fabrizio Atzori
- Marine Protected Area Capo Carbonara, Villasimius, Sardinia, Italy
| | - Eduardo J Belda
- Institut d' Investigació per a La Gestió de Zones Costaneres (IGIC), Universitat Politècnica de València, València, Spain
| | - Lobna Ben Nakhla
- Specially Protected Areas Regional Activity Centre (UNEP/MAP-SPA/RAC), Tunisia
| | - Ali A Berbash
- Protected Area and Biodiversity Section, Nature Conservation Department, Ministry of Environment, Libya
| | - Karen A Bjorndal
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Juan A Camiñas
- Asociación Herpetológica Española (AHE), Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Madrid, Spain
| | - Onur Candan
- Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Ordu University, Ordu, Turkiye
| | - Luis Cardona
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Science, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ilija Cetkovic
- University of Montenegro - Institute of Marine Biology, Kotor, Montenegro
| | - Nabigha Dakik
- Management Unit of Tyre Coast Nature Reserve, Tyre, Lebanon
| | - Giuseppe Andrea de Lucia
- IAS-CNR, Institute of Anthropic Impact and Sustainability in Marine Environment, National Research Council Oristano Section, Torregrande, Italy
| | | | - Salih Diryaq
- Ministry of Environment - Sirte Branch, Sirte, Libya
| | | | | | - Wayne J Fuller
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Near East University, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | | | | | - Imed Jribi
- Faculté des Sciences de Sfax, Université de Sfax, Sfax, Tunisia
| | - Manel Ben Ismail
- Iberostar Group - Sustainability Department - Wave of Change, Hammamet, Tunisia; Notre Grand Bleu Association, Monastir, Tunisia
| | - Yiannis Kamarianakis
- Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), Heraklion, Crete, Greece
| | - Yakup Kaska
- Pamukkale University, Faculty of Science, Department of Biology, Denizli, Turkiye; Sea Turtle Research, Rescue and Rehabilitation Center (DEKAMER), Muğla, Turkiye
| | - Kastriot Korro
- Wildlife and Health Research Center, Agricultural University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania
| | - Drosos Koutsoubas
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, Mytilene, Greece
| | - Giancarlo Lauriano
- Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research - ISPRA, Rome, Italy
| | - Bojan Lazar
- Department of Biodiversity, Faculty of Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Information Technologies, University of Primorska, Koper, Slovenia; Marine Science Program, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Pula, Croatia
| | - David March
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, UK; Cavanilles Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Universitat de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Adolfo Marco
- Estación Biológica de Doñana, CSIC, C/Américo Vespucio, S/n, Sevilla, Spain
| | | | | | - Nahla M Naguib
- Biodiversity Department, Nature Conservation Sector, Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Egypt
| | | | - Vilma Piroli
- University of Shkodra "Luigj Gurakuqi", Shkoder, Albania
| | - Karaa Sami
- Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de La Mer Tunisie, Tunisia
| | - Bektaş Sönmez
- Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Suşehri Timur Karabal Vocational School, Suşehri, Sivas, Turkiye
| | - Laurent Sourbès
- Management Unit of Zakynthos and Ainos National Parks and Protected Areas of the Ionian Islands, Zakynthos, Greece
| | - Doğan Sözbilen
- Pamukkale University, Acipayam Vocational School, Veterinary Department, Denizli, Turkiye
| | - Frederic Vandeperre
- Institute of Marine Sciences - Okeanos, University of the Azores, Horta, Portugal
| | - Pierre Vignes
- Faculty of Education, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya
| | - Michail Xanthakis
- Management Unit of Zakynthos and Ainos National Parks and Protected Areas of the Ionian Islands, Zakynthos, Greece
| | - Vera Köpsel
- Institut für Marine Ökosystem- und Fischereiwissenschaften (IMF), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Myron A Peck
- Department of Coastal Systems, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Burg, (Texel), Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Li Y, Sun M, Kleisner KM, Mills KE, Chen Y. A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods, scales, and knowledge co-production. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:3545-3561. [PMID: 37079435 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16733] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yunzhou Li
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | - Ming Sun
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | | | | | - Yong Chen
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Azfaralariff A, Mat Lazim A, Amran NH, Mukhtar NH, Bakri ND, Azrihan NN, Mohamad M. Mini review of microplastic pollutions and its impact on the environment and human health. WASTE MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOLID WASTES AND PUBLIC CLEANSING ASSOCIATION, ISWA 2023; 41:1219-1226. [PMID: 36883418 DOI: 10.1177/0734242x231155395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, the environmental pollution of microplastics (MPs) has increasingly drawn our attention. MPs are small fragments of plastics that are commonly dispersed in the environment. The accumulation of environmental MPs is due to population growth and urbanization, while natural disasters such as hurricanes, flooding and human activity may influence their distribution. The leaching of chemicals from MPs raises a significant safety problem and environmental approaches aimed at reducing the use and recycling of plastics, with the replacement by bioplastics and wastewater treatment developments are called for. This summary also helps in demonstrating the connection between terrestrial and freshwater MPs and wastewater treatment plants as the major contributors to environmental MPs by discharges of sludge and effluent. More research on the classification, detection, characterization and toxicity of MPs are essential to enable greater options and solutions. Control initiatives need to intensify the comprehensive study of MP waste control and management information programmes in the fields of institutional engagement, technological research and development, legislation and regulation. A comprehensive quantitative analysis approach for MPs should be created in the future, and more reliable traceability analysis methods should be built to examine further its environmental activity and existence, where this should be done to improve scientific research on MP pollution in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments and hence, develop more scientific and rational control policies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ahmad Azfaralariff
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
- Green Biopolymer, Coating and Packaging Cluster, School of Industrial Technology, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
| | - Azwan Mat Lazim
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - N Hidayah Amran
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - N Hafizah Mukhtar
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - N Dyana Bakri
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - N Najmina Azrihan
- Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Mazlan Mohamad
- Faculty of Bioengineering and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Kelantan, Kelantan, Malaysia
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Ben Lamine E, Schickele A, Guidetti P, Allemand D, Hilmi N, Raybaud V. Redistribution of fisheries catch potential in Mediterranean and North European waters under climate change scenarios. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 879:163055. [PMID: 36972882 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global warming where key commercial species, such as demersal and pelagic fishes, and cephalopods, could experience abrupt distribution shifts in the near future. However, the extent to which these range shifts may impact fisheries catch potential remains poorly understood at the scale of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Here, we evaluated the projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries catches potential, by target fishing gears, under different climate scenarios throughout the 21st century. We show that the future Mediterranean maximum catch potential may decrease considerably by the end of the century under high emission scenarios in South Eastern Mediterranean countries. These projected decreases range between -20 to -75 % for catch by pelagic trawl and seine, -50 to -75 % for fixed nets and traps and exceed -75 % for benthic trawl. In contrast, fixed nets and traps, and benthic trawl fisheries may experience an increase in their catch potential in the North and Celtic seas, while future catches by pelagic trawl and seine may decrease in the same areas. We show that a high emission scenario may considerably amplify the future redistribution of fisheries catch potential across European Seas, thus highlighting the need to limit global warming. Our projections at the manageable scale of EEZ and the quantification of climate-induced impacts on a large part of the Mediterranean and European fisheries is therefore a first, and considerable step toward the development of climate mitigation and adaptations strategies for the fisheries sector.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Emna Ben Lamine
- Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, ECOSEAS, France; LIA ROPSE, Laboratoire International Associé Université Côte d'Azur-Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco.
| | | | - Paolo Guidetti
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology (EMI), Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn-National Institute of Marine Biology, Ecology and Biotechnology, Genoa Marine Centre, Genoa, Italy
| | - Denis Allemand
- LIA ROPSE, Laboratoire International Associé Université Côte d'Azur-Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco; Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco
| | - Nathalie Hilmi
- LIA ROPSE, Laboratoire International Associé Université Côte d'Azur-Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco; Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco
| | - Virginie Raybaud
- Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, ECOSEAS, France; LIA ROPSE, Laboratoire International Associé Université Côte d'Azur-Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monaco
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Favoretto F, López-Sagástegui C, Sala E, Aburto-Oropeza O. The largest fully protected marine area in North America does not harm industrial fishing. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg0709. [PMID: 37256961 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg0709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Accepted: 03/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Marine protected areas (MPAs) that ban fishing restore marine life within their boundaries and can also replenish nearby fisheries. However, some argue that after large MPAs are established, fishing effort is displaced to unprotected areas and economic loss is incurred by the fishing industry. We tested these assumptions by assessing the behavior and productivity of the Mexican industrial fishing fleet before and after the implementation of the largest fully protected MPA in North America (the 147,000-square kilometer Revillagigedo National Park). We found no decrease in catches and no causal link between the variation of the spatial footprint of the industrial fleet and the implementation of the MPA. Our findings add to growing evidence that well-designed MPAs benefit marine ecosystems and, in the long term, can also benefit the fisheries they support.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fabio Favoretto
- Centro para la Biodiversidad Marina y la Conservación, A.C., Calle del Pirata 420, Col. El Mezquite, La Paz, BCS, México
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Catalina López-Sagástegui
- Gulf of California Marine Program, Institute of Americas, UC San Diego Campus, 10111 North Torrey Pines Road, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Enric Sala
- National Geographic Society, Washington, DC 20036, USA
| | - Octavio Aburto-Oropeza
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Grabowski T, Benedum ME, Curley A, Dill-De Sa C, Shuey M. Pandemic-driven changes in the nearshore non-commercial fishery in Hawai’i: catch photos posted to social media capture changes in fisher behavior. PeerJ 2023; 11:e14994. [PMID: 37009159 PMCID: PMC10064990 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.14994] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Using social media, we collect evidence for how nearshore fisheries are impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic in Hawai’i. We later confirm our social media findings and obtain a more complete understanding of the changes in nearshore non-commercial fisheries in Hawai’i through a more conventional approach—speaking directly with fishers. Resource users posted photographs to social media nearly three times as often during the pandemic with nearly double the number of fishes pictured per post. Individuals who fished for subsistence were more likely to increase the amount of time spent fishing and relied more on their catch for food security. Furthermore, individuals fishing exclusively for subsistence were more likely to fish for different species during the pandemic than individuals fishing recreationally. Traditional data collection methods are resource-intensive and this study shows that during times of rapid changes, be it ecological or societal, social media can more quickly identify how near shore marine resource use adapts. As climate change threatens additional economic and societal disturbances, it will be necessary for resource managers to collect reliable data efficiently to better target monitoring and management efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Timothy Grabowski
- U.S. Geological Survey, Hawai’i Cooperative Fishery Research Unit, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Hilo, Hawai’i, United States
| | - Michelle E. Benedum
- Political Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, United States
| | - Andrew Curley
- Anthropology Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Hilo, Hawai’i, United States
| | - Cole Dill-De Sa
- Earth Systems Program, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States
| | - Michelle Shuey
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Hawaii at Hilo, Hilo, Hawai’i, United States
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Ma S, Kang B, Li J, Sun P, Liu Y, Ye Z, Tian Y. Climate risks to fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 857:159325. [PMID: 36216044 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/05/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most concerning topics in the Anthropocene. Increasing sea water temperature will trigger a series of ecological consequences, altering the various functions and services that marine ecosystems provide for humans. Fisheries, specifically, will likely face the most direct impact. China provides unparalleled catches with enormous and intensive fishing effort, and China Seas are suffering from significantly increasing water temperature. However, uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas present challenges for the formulation of coping and adapting strategies. Here, we employed a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the climate risks of fishing species and fisheries of various provinces in China in the past decade, aiming to benefit the development and prioritization of appropriate adaptation options to climate change. Results show that considering the water temperature in the 2010s, 20 % of fishing species in the China Seas have one-fourth of their habitats unsuitable, and the situation will become worse with future warming scenarios in the 2050s when nearly half of species will have at least one-fourth of their habitats no longer suitable. Integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, climate risks to fisheries feature heterogeneity among provinces. Climate risks to fisheries of northern provinces are characterized by low hazard and high exposure, while the southern counterparts are largely determined by high hazard and low exposure. Climate change is threatening fishing species and remarkably altering fishery patterns in China Seas. Shifting fishing targets, increasing fishing efficiency, raising catch diversity, and updating fishery-related industries would be effective steps to help fisheries adapt to climate change, and adaptation strategies need to be tailored considering local realities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shuyang Ma
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Bin Kang
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Jianchao Li
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Peng Sun
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Yang Liu
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhenjiang Ye
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Yongjun Tian
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Mariculture, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China; Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China.
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Begum M, Masud MM, Alam L, Mokhtar MB, Amir AA. The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:87923-87937. [PMID: 35819668 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-21845-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO2 emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO2 emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO2 emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO2 emissions, and average temperatures.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Mahfuza Begum
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Muhammad Mehedi Masud
- Department of Development Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Lubna Alam
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia.
| | - Mazlin Bin Mokhtar
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Ahmad Aldrie Amir
- The Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), The National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Cheung WWL, Palacios-Abrantes J, Frölicher TL, Palomares ML, Clarke T, Lam VWY, Oyinlola MA, Pauly D, Reygondeau G, Sumaila UR, Teh LCL, Wabnitz CCC. Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6254-6267. [PMID: 36047439 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Revised: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/25/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Maria Lourdes Palomares
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tayler Clarke
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique - Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Daniel Pauly
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lydia C L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Brodie S, Smith JA, Muhling BA, Barnett LAK, Carroll G, Fiedler P, Bograd SJ, Hazen EL, Jacox MG, Andrews KS, Barnes CL, Crozier LG, Fiechter J, Fredston A, Haltuch MA, Harvey CJ, Holmes E, Karp MA, Liu OR, Malick MJ, Pozo Buil M, Richerson K, Rooper CN, Samhouri J, Seary R, Selden RL, Thompson AR, Tommasi D, Ward EJ, Kaplan IC. Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:6586-6601. [PMID: 35978484 PMCID: PMC9805044 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Revised: 07/25/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Brodie
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
| | - James A. Smith
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Barbara A. Muhling
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Lewis A. K. Barnett
- Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | | | - Paul Fiedler
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Steven J. Bograd
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Elliott L. Hazen
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Michael G. Jacox
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Physical Sciences Laboratory, Earth System Research LaboratoriesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Kelly S. Andrews
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Cheryl L. Barnes
- Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem StudiesUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Lisa G. Crozier
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Jerome Fiechter
- Ocean Sciences DepartmentUniversity of California Santa CruzSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA
| | - Alexa Fredston
- Ocean Sciences DepartmentUniversity of California Santa CruzSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural ResourcesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNew JerseyUSA
| | - Melissa A. Haltuch
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Chris J. Harvey
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Elizabeth Holmes
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Melissa A. Karp
- ECS Tech, in support of, NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and TechnologySilver SpringMarylandUSA
| | - Owen R. Liu
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Michael J. Malick
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Mercedes Pozo Buil
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Kate Richerson
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | | | - Jameal Samhouri
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Rachel Seary
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationMontereyCaliforniaUSA
| | - Rebecca L. Selden
- Department of Biological SciencesWellesley CollegeWellesleyMassachusettsUSA
| | - Andrew R. Thompson
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Desiree Tommasi
- Institute of Marine SciencesUniversity of California Santa CruzMontereyCaliforniaUSA
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSan DiegoCaliforniaUSA
| | - Eric J. Ward
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - Isaac C. Kaplan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries ServiceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSeattleWashingtonUSA
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of fishing fleet landings to climate change across regions. Sci Rep 2022; 12:17360. [PMID: 36253444 PMCID: PMC9576743 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21284-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/26/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
The degree of exposure of fishing communities to environmental changes can be partially determined by the vulnerability of the target species and the landings composition. Hence, identifying the species that ecologically most contribute to the vulnerability of the landings are key steps to evaluate the risk posed by climate change. We analyse the temporal variability in intrinsic sensitivity and the ecological vulnerability of the Portuguese fisheries landings, considering the species proportions derived both from the weights and revenues. To account for the diversification of species of each fleet, we explored the species dependence of the fishery in combination with the vulnerability of them. The analyses were carried out separately for three fleet typologies and three regions. Opposite to what has been observed at a global scale, the ecological sensitivity of the fisheries landings between 1989 and 2015 did not display a decline across areas or fishing fleets. Considering each fleet independently, for trawling, where average vulnerability was lower than in the other fleets, the sensitivity of the landings increased since the 2000s. On the other hand, the high vulnerability found in multi-gear fleets was compensated by diversification of the species caught, while purse-seine fleets targeted low vulnerability species but presented a high fishery dependence on few species. The results highlight the importance of combining information on ecological vulnerability and diversification of fishing resources at a regional scale while providing a measure of the ecological exposure to climate change.
Collapse
|
17
|
Richardson K, Hardesty BD, Vince J, Wilcox C. Global estimates of fishing gear lost to the ocean each year. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabq0135. [PMID: 36223462 PMCID: PMC9555783 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) is a major contributor to ocean pollution, with extensive social, economic, and environmental impacts. However, quantitative ALDFG estimates are dated and limited in scope. To provide current global estimates, we interviewed fishers around the world about how much fishing gear they lose annually and multiplied reported losses by global fishing effort data. We estimate that nearly 2% of all fishing gear, comprising 2963 km2 of gillnets, 75,049 km2 of purse seine nets, 218 km2 of trawl nets, 739,583 km of longline mainlines, and more than 25 million pots and traps are lost to the ocean annually. These estimates represent critical baselines that can inform solutions targeted to ALDFG reduction strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kelsey Richardson
- School of Social Sciences, College of Arts, Law, and Education, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Britta Denise Hardesty
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Joanna Vince
- School of Social Sciences, College of Arts, Law, and Education, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Chris Wilcox
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Assessing the Economic Contribution of Ocean-Based Activities Using the Pacific Coast of British Columbia as a Case Study. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14148662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Global obligations to achieve sustainable oceans by 2030 require countries to commit to solutions that balance ocean use and protection. To do so necessitates baseline understanding of the ocean’s contribution to socio-economic well-being, which we do by measuring the economic activity of ocean-related sectors. Economic assessments tend to be data intensive and are typically reliant on professional economists, yet they are increasingly relevant to non-economists who engage in ocean management and communication, where they are integral in facilitating trade-off analysis of future ocean change. Thus, there is a need to make ocean economic assessment more accessible to nonspecialists. We fill this need by providing a pragmatic framework for conducting an economic assessment using British Columbia’s ocean sector as a case study. Our results show the impact of the province’s ocean sectors on four economic indicators and indicate that the ocean contributed almost $5 billion (or about 2%) to provincial gross domestic product (GDP) and generated about 106,120 jobs (over 4% of the province’s total) in 2015. Of these, the marine transport sector made the highest overall contribution followed by cruise lines, with GDP impacts of 66% and 13%, respectively. It should be noted that this estimated economic value is not representative of the full value of the ocean as it excludes oil and gas, research and education, and other activities that do not meet our criteria for inclusion, and it does not account for cultural and ecological values. Nonetheless the study highlights the substantial number of economic benefits generated by the blue economy. More significantly, the framework provides a simplified procedure for quantifying economic benefits, and can be applied by nonspecialists to perform rapid economic assessments in a variety of contexts.
Collapse
|
19
|
Farooq MS, Uzair M, Raza A, Habib M, Xu Y, Yousuf M, Yang SH, Ramzan Khan M. Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 13:927535. [PMID: 35903229 PMCID: PMC9315450 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.927535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2022] [Accepted: 06/15/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Shahbaz Farooq
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Uzair
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Ali Raza
- College of Agriculture, Oil Crops Research Institute, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University (FAFU), Fuzhou, China
| | - Madiha Habib
- National Institute for Genomics and Advanced Biotechnology, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - Yinlong Xu
- Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Beijing, China
| | | | - Seung Hwan Yang
- Department of Biotechnology, Chonnam National University, Yeosu, South Korea
| | | |
Collapse
|
20
|
Sub-Saharan Africa Freshwater Fisheries under Climate Change: A Review of Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Measures. FISHES 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/fishes7030131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa’s freshwater fisheries contribute significantly to the livelihoods and food security of millions of people within the region. However, freshwater fisheries are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors such as overfishing, illegal fishing, pollution, and climate change. There is a substantial body of literature on the effects of climate change on freshwater fisheries in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study reviews the existing literature and highlights the effects of climate change on freshwater fisheries, the adaptation strategies of fishery-dependent households in response to the effects, and fisheries’ management and mitigation efforts in the face of climate change. The general effects of climate change on freshwater environments include warming water temperatures, increased stratification, modified hydrological processes, and increased pollutants. These effects adversely affect the physiological processes of fish and the overall wellbeing of fishery-dependent people. To cope with the effects of fluctuating fishery resources due to climate change, fishery-dependent people have adopted several adaptation strategies including livelihood diversification, changing their fishing gear, increasing their fishing efforts, and targeting new species. Several management attempts have been made to enhance the sustainability of fishery resources, from local to regional levels. This study recommends the participation of the resource users in the formulation of policies aimed at promoting climate change adaptation and the resilience of freshwater fisheries for sustainable development.
Collapse
|
21
|
Shedayi AA, Xu M, Gonalez-Redin J, Ali A, Shahzad L, Rahim S. Spatiotemporal valuation of cultural and natural landscapes contributing to Pakistan's cultural ecosystem services. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:41834-41848. [PMID: 35098454 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-17611-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Cultural ecosystem services are the non-material benefits that people obtain from ecosystems and these services are subject to tremendous anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal economic valuation of selected cultural and natural landscapes in Pakistan using net present value method. The results indicate that both cultural landscapes and mountain ecosystems are the most significant contributors to Pakistan's cultural ecosystem services. The net present value of our study area was USD 96/ha, while this value is ranged from USD 0.000242/ha to USD 138,997/ha in the 42 previous studies selected for comparison. Service flow, population, and visitor numbers were the most significant indicators of cultural ecosystem services. The promotion of cultural ecosystem services as an inclusive service and the application of discounted rates are identified as key approaches for ensuring sustainable resource use and enhanced intergenerational benefits by incorporating cultural ecosystem services into the national policy framework.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Arshad Ali Shedayi
- Department of Biological Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, 15100, Pakistan
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
| | - Ming Xu
- Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Grant F. Walton Center for Remote Sensing & Spatial Analysis, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University 14 College Farm Road New Brunswick, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901-8551, USA.
| | | | - Amjad Ali
- Department of Development Studies, Karakoram International University Hunza Campus, Karimabad, Hunza, Gilgit, Baltistan, Pakistan
| | - Laila Shahzad
- Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Sabit Rahim
- Department of Computer Sciences, Karakoram International University Gilgit-Baltistan, Gilgit, Pakistan
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Selvaraj JJ, Guerrero D, Cifuentes-Ossa MA, Guzmán Alvis ÁI. THE ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF FISHING HOUSEHOLDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC REGION OF COLOMBIA. Heliyon 2022; 8:e09425. [PMID: 35620620 PMCID: PMC9126920 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2021] [Revised: 02/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change's direct and indirect effects on marine ecosystems and coastal areas mainly impact small-scale fishers, especially in developing countries, which present extreme poverty and high dependency on marine ecosystems as a source of food and sustenance for households. Understanding the vulnerability of fishing households and considering the associated socio-economic-political complexities is essential for preserving their livelihoods and maintaining their well-being. This study proposes a measure of economic vulnerability based on the capacity of fishing households in Tumaco, located on the southern Pacific coast of Colombia, to diversify their livelihoods. Different statistical procedures have been conducted to identify the most relevant strategies in reducing the economic vulnerability of households. The results indicate that reducing the vulnerability of fishing households depends on adaptation strategies such as occupational mobility, some elements of social capital, and reduced dependence on the fisheries resource. This study could constitute an input for creating public policy that guides efforts to achieve strategies for the generation of other livelihoods and the sustainability of fishing households that continue to choose fishing as their main economic activity.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- John Josephraj Selvaraj
- Institute of Pacific Studies, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Tumaco Campus, Kilómetro 30-31, Cajapí Vía Nacional Tumaco-Pasto, Tumaco, 528514 Nariño, Colombia
- Corresponding author.
| | - Daniel Guerrero
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira Campus, Department of Engineering, Carrera 32 No. 12-00 Chapinero, Vía Candelaria, Palmira 763533 Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Maria Alejandra Cifuentes-Ossa
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira Campus, Department of Engineering, Carrera 32 No. 12-00 Chapinero, Vía Candelaria, Palmira 763533 Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| | - Ángela Inés Guzmán Alvis
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira Campus, Department of Engineering, Carrera 32 No. 12-00 Chapinero, Vía Candelaria, Palmira 763533 Valle del Cauca, Colombia
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System. Sci Rep 2022; 12:4800. [PMID: 35314739 PMCID: PMC8938481 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-08818-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.
Collapse
|
24
|
Tai TC, Calosi P, Gurney-Smith HJ, Cheung WWL. Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus. Sci Rep 2021; 11:23330. [PMID: 34857790 PMCID: PMC8639722 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-02253-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Travis C. Tai
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
| | - Piero Calosi
- grid.265702.40000 0001 2185 197XDépartment de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1 Canada
| | - Helen J. Gurney-Smith
- grid.23618.3e0000 0004 0449 2129Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. Andrews Biological Station, 125 Marine Science Drive, St. Andrews, NB E5B 0E4 Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- grid.17091.3e0000 0001 2288 9830Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4 Canada
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Pita I, Mouillot D, Moullec F, Shin YJ. Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:5920-5933. [PMID: 34309958 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ignacio Pita
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC), Université Montpellier, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), CNRS, Montpellier, France
| | - David Mouillot
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC), Université Montpellier, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), CNRS, Montpellier, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
| | - Fabien Moullec
- Coastal Systems (COS), Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Burg, Noord-Holland, The Netherlands
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation (MARBEC), Université Montpellier, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), CNRS, Montpellier, France
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Lavender E, Fox CJ, Burrows MT. Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258184. [PMID: 34606498 PMCID: PMC8489719 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Edward Lavender
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
- * E-mail:
| | - Clive J. Fox
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
| | - Michael T. Burrows
- The Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunstaffnage, Oban, Argyll, Scotland
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Cheung WWL, Frölicher TL, Lam VWY, Oyinlola MA, Reygondeau G, Sumaila UR, Tai TC, Teh LCL, Wabnitz CCC. Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabh0895. [PMID: 34597142 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Extreme temperature events have occurred in all ocean basins in the past two decades with detrimental impacts on marine biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. However, global impacts of temperature extremes on fish stocks, fisheries, and dependent people have not been quantified. Using an integrated climate-biodiversity-fisheries-economic impact model, we project that, on average, when an annual high temperature extreme occurs in an exclusive economic zone, 77% of exploited fishes and invertebrates therein will decrease in biomass while maximum catch potential will drop by 6%, adding to the decadal-scale mean impacts under climate change. The net negative impacts of high temperature extremes on fish stocks are projected to cause losses in fisheries revenues and livelihoods in most maritime countries, creating shocks to fisheries social-ecological systems particularly in climate-vulnerable areas. Our study highlights the need for rapid adaptation responses to extreme temperatures in addition to carbon mitigation to support sustainable ocean development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- William W L Cheung
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Thomas L Frölicher
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Vicky W Y Lam
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Muhammed A Oyinlola
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - U Rashid Sumaila
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, 43600 Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Travis C Tai
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lydia C L Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Colette C C Wabnitz
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
The Impact of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies on Income and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Small-Scale Fishers in Indonesia. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su13147905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on marine capture fisheries have been observed in several studies. It is likely to have a substantial effect on fishers’ income and food security. This study aims to estimate the impact of adaptation strategies on fishers’ income and their household’s food security. Data were collected from small-scale fishers’ households, which own a fishing boat smaller or equal to five gross tonnages (GT). The study sites were the two coastal regions of Malang and Probolinggo in East Java, Indonesia, due to the meager socioeconomic resources caused by climate change. A probit regression model was used to determine the factors influencing the fishers’ adaptation. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to evaluate the impact of the adaptation strategies on income and food security. Food security was measured by food consumption score (FCS). The findings indicated that participation in the fishers’ group affected adaptation strategies significantly, and so did the access to credit and climate information. Also, PSM showed that the adaptation strategies had a positive and significant impact on fishers’ income and food security. Those who applied the adaptation strategies had a higher income and FCS than those who did not. This finding implies that the fishery sector’s adaptation strategies can have significant expansion outcome and reduce exposure to risks posed by climate change. Therefore, the arrangement of more climate change adaptation strategies should be promoted by the government for small-scale fishers in Indonesia.
Collapse
|
29
|
Micronutrient supply from global marine fisheries under climate change and overfishing. Curr Biol 2021; 31:4132-4138.e3. [PMID: 34289388 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2021.06.067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2021] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
Fish are rich in bioavailable micronutrients, such as zinc and iron, deficiencies of which are a global food security concern.1,2 Global marine fisheries yields are threatened by climate change and overfishing,3,4 yet understanding of how these stressors affect the nutrients available from fisheries is lacking.5,6 Here, using global assessments of micronutrient content2 and fisheries catch data,7 we investigate how the vulnerability status of marine fish species8,9 may translate into vulnerability of micronutrient availability at scales of both individual species and entire fishery assemblages for 157 countries. We further quantify the micronutrient evenness of catches to identify countries where interventions can optimize micronutrient supply. Our global analysis, including >800 marine fish species, reveals that, at a species level, micronutrient availability and vulnerability to both climate change and overfishing varies greatly, with tropical species displaying a positive co-tolerance, indicating greater persistence to both stressors at a community level.10 Global fisheries catches had relatively low nutritional vulnerability to fishing. Catches with higher species richness tend to be nutrient dense and evenly distributed but are more vulnerable to climate change, with 40% of countries displaying high vulnerability. Countries with high prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake tend to have the most nutrient-dense catches, but these same fisheries are highly vulnerable to climate change, with relatively lower capacity to adapt.11 Our analysis highlights the need to consolidate fisheries, climate, and food policies to secure the sustainable contribution of fish-derived micronutrients to food and nutrition security.
Collapse
|
30
|
Marshak AR, Link JS. Primary production ultimately limits fisheries economic performance. Sci Rep 2021; 11:12154. [PMID: 34135358 PMCID: PMC8209017 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-91599-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Living marine resources (LMRs) contribute considerably to marine economies. Oceans continue to respond to the effects of global change, with environmental factors anticipated to impact future seafood production and its associated economic performance. Here we document novel relationships between primary productivity and LMR-based economics for US regional marine ecosystems and 64 international large marine ecosystems (LMEs). Intermediate relationships between production, total biomass, fisheries landings, revenue, and LMR-based employment are also elucidated. We found that all these factors were dependent on the amount of basal production in a given system. In addition, factors including human population, exploitation history, and governance interventions significantly influenced these relationships. As system productivity plays a foundational role in determining fisheries-based economics throughout global LMEs, greater accounting for these relationships has significant implications for global seafood sustainability and food security. Quantifying the direct link between primary production and fisheries economic performance serves to better inform ecosystem overfishing thresholds and their economic consequences. Further recognition and understanding of these relationships is key to ensuring that these connections are accounted for more effectively in sustainable management practices.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Anthony R Marshak
- CSS, Inc. in Support of NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA.
| | - Jason S Link
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Office of the Assistant Administrator, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Sheu JC, Torres MIM, Gordon MR, Nguyen PT, Coverdale JH. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Human Trafficking: A Narrative Review. J Nerv Ment Dis 2021; 209:324-329. [PMID: 33835952 DOI: 10.1097/nmd.0000000000001312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
ABSTRACT Climate change is a threat to the public health with wide-reaching impacts that are becoming more studied and recognized. An aspect of climate change that has not yet gained adequate scholarly attention is its potential impact on human trafficking. We review the potential impact of climate change on risk factors to human trafficking including poverty, gender inequality, political instability, migration or forced displacement, and weather disasters. We conclude that climate change is a crucially important consideration in understanding the complex and multifactorial risks for human trafficking. These findings add to the priority for health professionals to embrace efforts to prevent and to mitigate the effects of climate change and to take account of these risk factors in screening and identifying trafficked persons.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Melissa I M Torres
- Menninger Department of Psychiatry, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Mollie R Gordon
- Menninger Department of Psychiatry, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Phuong T Nguyen
- Menninger Department of Psychiatry, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - John H Coverdale
- Menninger Department of Psychiatry, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
The Contribution of Thai Fisheries to Sustainable Seafood Consumption: National Trends and Future Projections. Foods 2021; 10:foods10040880. [PMID: 33920585 PMCID: PMC8073281 DOI: 10.3390/foods10040880] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Revised: 04/04/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Sustainably feeding a growing human population is one of the greatest food system challenges of the 21st century. Seafood plays a vital role in supporting human wellbeing, by providing bioavailable and nutrient-dense animal-source food. In Thailand, seafood demand is increasing, and wild capture fishery yields have plateaued, due to oceanic ecosystem degradation and fishery stock exploitation. In this study, we investigated the supply trend of fishery products and subsequent seafood-derived nutrient availability over the last decade. In addition, we explored the possibility of predicting seafood availability and consumption levels, including adherence to Thailand’s national food guide and global dietary recommendations for sustainable seafood consumption. Our findings indicate that, at national-level, fishery products supplied between 19% and 35% of the Thai populations recommended dietary protein intake, 4–6% of calcium, 6–11% of iron, and 2–4% of zinc from 1995 to 2015. Nevertheless, our research also reports that if Thailand’s wild-caught seafood production were to decrease by 13%, as is highly likely, by 2030, the country might face a per capita supply deficit of fish and shellfish to meet healthy and sustainable dietary recommendations (28–30 g/day), let alone the current Thai average intake (32 g/day). Although a 1% per year increase in aquaculture production might bridge this supply gap, policymakers and relevant fishery stakeholders must consider the long-term environmental impacts of such an approach in Thailand.
Collapse
|
33
|
Schickele A, Francour P, Raybaud V. European cephalopods distribution under climate-change scenarios. Sci Rep 2021; 11:3930. [PMID: 33594145 PMCID: PMC7886854 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83457-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
In a context of increasing anthropogenic pressure, projecting species potential distributional shifts is of major importance for the sustainable exploitation of marine species. Despite their major economical (i.e. important fisheries) and ecological (i.e. central position in food-webs) importance, cephalopods literature rarely addresses an explicit understanding of their current distribution and the potential effect that climate change may induce in the following decades. In this study, we focus on three largely harvested and common cephalopod species in Europe: Octopus vulgaris, Sepia officinalis and Loligo vulgaris. Using a recently improved species ensemble modelling framework coupled with five atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, we modelled their contemporary and potential future distributional range over the twenty-first century. Independently of global warming scenarios, we observed a decreasing in the suitability of environmental conditions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Bay of Biscay. Conversely, we projected a rapidly increasing environmental suitability in the North, Norwegian and Baltic Seas for all species. This study is a first broad scale assessment and identification of the geographical areas, fisheries and ecosystems impacted by climate-induced changes in cephalopods distributional range.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Schickele
- grid.460782.f0000 0004 4910 6551Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, Nice, France
| | - Patrice Francour
- grid.460782.f0000 0004 4910 6551Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, Nice, France
| | - Virginie Raybaud
- grid.460782.f0000 0004 4910 6551Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, UMR 7035 ECOSEAS, Nice, France
| |
Collapse
|
34
|
Kalia V, Schuur SS, Hobson KA, Chang HH, Waller LA, Hare SR, Gribble MO. Relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and persistent organic pollutants in sympatric Alaskan seabird ( Uria aalge and U. lomvia) eggs between 1999 and 2010. CHEMOSPHERE 2021; 262:127520. [PMID: 32791363 PMCID: PMC8466667 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2020.127520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2020] [Revised: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 06/23/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Although climate change occurs alongside other anthropogenic ecosystem impacts, little is known about how sea-surface temperature variability influences the ecotoxicology of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). We analyzed POP contaminant levels, and stable isotopes δ15N and δ13C as measures of trophic position, in eggs collected from the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea between 1999 and 2010 from two similar avian species with different trophic positions: common murres (Uria aalge) and thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia). The ebb and flow of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, predicted both trophic position and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels in thick-billed murres, but not in common murres. There was a similar pattern of association of the PDO with organochlorine pesticide levels in thick-billed murres, but not in common murres. The magnitude of association in thick-billed murres of PDO with the level of a specific PCB congener was a function of the number of chlorine groups on the PCB congener. Although this statistical analysis does not account for all factors contributing to climate variation, this contrast between the species suggests that facultative changes in foraging behavior, reflected in trophic position, can determine how POPs flow through and thereby alter ecosystems under climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vrinda Kalia
- Department of Environmental Health, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia.
| | - Stacy S Schuur
- National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Hollings Marine Laboratory, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC, 29412, USA
| | - Keith A Hobson
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Stable Isotope Hydrology and Ecology Research Laboratory, 11 Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK, 27N 3H5, Canada
| | - Howard H Chang
- Department of Biostatistics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia
| | - Lance A Waller
- Department of Biostatistics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia
| | - Steven R Hare
- Pacific Community (SPC), B.P. D5, 98848, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - Matthew O Gribble
- Department of Environmental Health, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia; Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, 30322, Georgia
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
MOORE CHRIS, MORLEY JAMESW, MORRISON BRIAN, KOLIAN MICHAEL, HORSCH ERIC, FRÖLICHER THOMAS, PINSKY MALINL, GRIFFIS ROGER. ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES. CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS 2020; N/A:10.1142/s2010007821500020. [PMID: 33628400 PMCID: PMC7900876 DOI: 10.1142/s2010007821500020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278-901 million by 2100.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- CHRIS MOORE
- National Center for Environmental Economics, United States Environmental Protection Agency 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW (MC 1809T), Washington, DC 20460, USA
| | - JAMES W. MORLEY
- Department of Biology, Coastal Studies Institute, East Carolina University, ECU Outer Banks Campus 850 NC 345, Wanchese, NC 27981, USA
| | - BRIAN MORRISON
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | | | - ERIC HORSCH
- Industrial Economics, Incorporated, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, USA
| | - THOMAS FRÖLICHER
- Climate and Environmental Physics Division (CEP), Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern Hochschulstrasse 4, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
| | - MALIN L. PINSKY
- Department of Ecology Evolution and Natural Resources, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
| | - ROGER GRIFFIS
- Office of Science and Technology National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1335 East-West Highway, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Alabia ID, Molinos JG, Saitoh SI, Hirata T, Hirawake T, Mueter FJ. Multiple facets of marine biodiversity in the Pacific Arctic under future climate. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 744:140913. [PMID: 32721679 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140913] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is triggering a global reorganization of marine life. Biogeographical transition zones, diversity-rich regions straddling biogeographical units where many species live at, or close to, their physiological tolerance limits (i.e., range distribution edges), are redistribution hotspots that offer a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate-driven thermophilization processes in natural communities. In this context, we examined the impacts of climate change projections in the 21st century (2026-2100) on marine biodiversity in the Eastern Bering and Chukchi seas within the Pacific Arctic, a climatically exposed and sensitive boreal-to-Arctic transition zone. Overall, projected changes in species distributions, modeled using species distribution models, resulted in poleward increases in species richness and functional redundancy, along with pronounced reductions in phylogenetic distances by century's end (2076-2100). Future poleward shifts of boreal species in response to warming and sea ice changes are projected to alter the taxonomic and functional biogeography of contemporary Arctic communities as larger, longer-lived and more predatory taxa expand their leading distributional margins. Drawing from the existing evidence from other Arctic regions, these changes are anticipated to increase the susceptibility and vulnerability of the Arctic ecosystems, as trophic connectance between biological components increases, thus decreasing the modularity of Arctic food webs. Our results demonstrate how integrating multiple diversity facets can provide key insights into the relationships between climate change, species composition and ecosystem functioning across marine biogeographic regions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Irene D Alabia
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan.
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan; Global Station for Arctic Research, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Sei-Ichi Saitoh
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan
| | - Takafumi Hirata
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11 Kita-ku, 001-0021 Sapporo, Japan; Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Toru Hirawake
- Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 041-8611 Hakodate, Japan
| | - Franz J Mueter
- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, 99801 United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Clarke TM, Reygondeau G, Wabnitz C, Robertson R, Ixquiac‐Cabrera M, López M, Ramírez Coghi AR, del Río Iglesias JL, Wehrtmann I, Cheung WW. Climate change impacts on living marine resources in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tayler M. Clarke
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
- Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR) Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | - Gabriel Reygondeau
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| | - Colette Wabnitz
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| | | | - Manuel Ixquiac‐Cabrera
- Centro de Estudios del Mar y Acuicultura Universidad de San Carlos de Guatemala Guatemala Guatemala
| | - Myrna López
- Museo de Zoología Escuela de Biología Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | | | | | - Ingo Wehrtmann
- Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR) Universidad de Costa Rica San José Costa Rica
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Abstract
The issue of marine plastic litter pollution is multifaceted, cross-sectoral, and ongoing in the absence of appropriate management measures. This study analysed the issue of marine plastic litter pollution in the context of the Descriptor 10 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive and Good Environmental Status of the oceans and seas. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to assess the causes, effects, and management measures to changes in the marine environment resulting from marine plastics pollution. We noted that less than 10 peer-reviewed publications have applied the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model to the issue of marine plastics pollution. Some basic needs such as food security, movement of goods and services, and shelter are also some of the major drivers of marine plastic pollution. The use of plastics is linked to multiple economic sectors (fisheries, agriculture, transport, packaging, construction) and other human activities. A significant amount of the resulting pressures came from the economic sectors for packaging and construction. State changes occurred at the environmental (contamination and bioaccumulation), ecosystem (ingestion of plastics, ghost fishing) and ecosystem service levels (supply of sea food, salt and cultural benefits), with possible loss of jobs and income being some of the observed impacts on human welfare. Responses as management measures, which are tailored to meet each component of the DPSIR framework, were identified. These included policies, regulations, technological advancement and behavioural change. The research acknowledges the issue of marine plastics pollution as a global environmental problem and recommends a trans-disciplinary approach, involving all types of stakeholders. Future research and analysis applying the DPSIR framework will be useful to provide the information necessary for the effective, adaptive management of litter pollution by marine plastics.
Collapse
|
39
|
Weiskopf SR, Rubenstein MA, Crozier LG, Gaichas S, Griffis R, Halofsky JE, Hyde KJW, Morelli TL, Morisette JT, Muñoz RC, Pershing AJ, Peterson DL, Poudel R, Staudinger MD, Sutton-Grier AE, Thompson L, Vose J, Weltzin JF, Whyte KP. Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 733:137782. [PMID: 32209235 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137782] [Citation(s) in RCA: 125] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2019] [Revised: 02/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/05/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R Weiskopf
- U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, VA, USA.
| | | | - Lisa G Crozier
- NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sarah Gaichas
- NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Roger Griffis
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Jessica E Halofsky
- University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Toni Lyn Morelli
- U.S. Geological Survey Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Jeffrey T Morisette
- U.S. Department of the Interior, National Invasive Species Council Secretariat, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Roldan C Muñoz
- NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Beaufort, NC, USA
| | | | - David L Peterson
- University of Washington, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Michelle D Staudinger
- U.S. Geological Survey Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Amherst, MA, USA
| | - Ariana E Sutton-Grier
- University of Maryland Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Laura Thompson
- U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, VA, USA
| | - James Vose
- U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
40
|
Maltby KM, Rutterford LA, Tinker J, Genner MJ, Simpson SD. Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M. Maltby
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Louise A. Rutterford
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | | | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | - Stephen D. Simpson
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
China at a Crossroads: An Analysis of China's Changing Seafood Production and Consumption. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.06.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
|
42
|
|
43
|
Bednaršek N, Feely RA, Beck MW, Alin SR, Siedlecki SA, Calosi P, Norton EL, Saenger C, Štrus J, Greeley D, Nezlin NP, Roethler M, Spicer JI. Exoskeleton dissolution with mechanoreceptor damage in larval Dungeness crab related to severity of present-day ocean acidification vertical gradients. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 716:136610. [PMID: 31982187 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Revised: 01/04/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2020] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Ocean acidification (OA) along the US West Coast is intensifying faster than observed in the global ocean. This is particularly true in nearshore regions (<200 m) that experience a lower buffering capacity while at the same time providing important habitats for ecologically and economically significant species. While the literature on the effects of OA from laboratory experiments is voluminous, there is little understanding of present-day OA in-situ effects on marine life. Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) is perennially one of the most valuable commercial and recreational fisheries. We focused on establishing OA-related vulnerability of larval crustacean based on mineralogical and elemental carapace to external and internal carapace dissolution by using a combination of different methods ranging from scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, elemental mapping and X-ray diffraction. By integrating carapace features with the chemical observations and biogeochemical model hindcast, we identify the occurrence of external carapace dissolution related to the steepest Ω calcite gradients (∆Ωcal,60) in the water column. Dissolution features are observed across the carapace, pereopods (legs), and around the calcified areas surrounding neuritic canals of mechanoreceptors. The carapace dissolution is the most extensive in the coastal habitats under prolonged (1-month) long exposure, as demonstrated by the use of the model hindcast. Such dissolution has a potential to destabilize mechanoreceptors with important sensory and behavioral functions, a pathway of sensitivity to OA. Carapace dissolution is negatively related to crab larval width, demonstrating a basis for energetic trade-offs. Using a retrospective prediction from a regression models, we estimate an 8.3% increase in external carapace dissolution over the last two decades and identified a set of affected OA-related sublethal pathways to inform future risk assessment studies of Dungeness crabs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nina Bednaršek
- Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CA 92626, USA.
| | - Richard A Feely
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
| | - Marcus W Beck
- Tampa Bay Estuary Program, 263 13th Ave S, St. Petersburg, FL, 33701, USA
| | - Simone R Alin
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
| | | | - Piero Calosi
- Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Emily L Norton
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Casey Saenger
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Jasna Štrus
- Department of Biology, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, 1000, Slovenia
| | - Dana Greeley
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
| | - Nikolay P Nezlin
- Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CA 92626, USA
| | - Miranda Roethler
- Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa, CA 92626, USA
| | - John I Spicer
- University of Plymouth, School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
| |
Collapse
|
44
|
Rubio I, Ganzedo U, Hobday AJ, Ojea E. Southward re-distribution of tropical tuna fisheries activity can be explained by technological and management change. FISH AND FISHERIES (OXFORD, ENGLAND) 2020; 21:511-521. [PMID: 32612453 PMCID: PMC7317860 DOI: 10.1111/faf.12443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2019] [Revised: 12/20/2019] [Accepted: 01/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate-driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are responding to ocean warming, we investigate purse seine fleets targeting tropical tunas in the east Atlantic Ocean using effort and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data from 1991 to 2017. An analysis of the spatial change in effort using a centre of gravity approach and empirical orthogonal functions is used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in effort anomalies and investigate links to SSTA. Both analyses indicate that effort shifts southward from the equator, while no clear pattern is seen northward from the equator. Random forest models show that while technology and institutional settings better explain total effort, SSTA is playing a role when explaining the spatiotemporal changes of effort, together with management and international agreements. These results show the potential of management to minimize the impacts of climate change on fisheries activity. Our results provide guidance for improved understanding about how climate, management and governance interact in tropical tuna fisheries, with methods that are replicable and transferable. Future actions should take into account all these elements in order to plan successful adaptation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Iratxe Rubio
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)LeioaSpain
- Future Oceans LabUniversity of VigoVigoSpain
| | | | - Alistair J. Hobday
- CSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobartTasAustralia
- Centre for Marine SocioecologyUniversity of TasmaniaHobartTasAustralia
| | - Elena Ojea
- Future Oceans LabUniversity of VigoVigoSpain
| |
Collapse
|
45
|
Free CM, Mangin T, Molinos JG, Ojea E, Burden M, Costello C, Gaines SD. Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0224347. [PMID: 32134926 PMCID: PMC7058327 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2019] [Accepted: 02/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60–65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23–50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing–and achieving the benefits of–climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M. Free
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Tracey Mangin
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Jorge García Molinos
- Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Global Station for Arctic Research, Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
- Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Elena Ojea
- Future Oceans Lab, CIM-UVigo, University of Vigo, Vigo, Spain
| | - Merrick Burden
- Environmental Defense Fund, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Christopher Costello
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Steven D. Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Abstract
Beyond their value as a natural resource, marine fisheries employ an estimated 18.4 million commercial harvesters worldwide. Previous research describes how climate change can affect fish populations, but how it will impact fishing employment and communities is not yet understood. New England, which employs 34,000 commercial harvesters, has a well-documented management history and some of the world’s fastest-warming waters. This paper provides empirical evidence that fluctuations in a regional climate index reduced county-level fishing employment in New England by an average of 16% between 1996 and 2017. The findings cannot be extrapolated to other regions without further study, but they demonstrate how climate can be linked to fishing employment at a regional level via a biophysical pathway. Climate change is already affecting fish productivity and distributions worldwide, yet its impact on fishing labor has not been examined. Here I directly link large-scale climate variability with fishery employment by studying the effects of sea-surface pressure changes in the North Atlantic region, whose waters are among the world’s fastest warming. I find that climate shocks reduce not only regional catch and revenue in the New England fishing sector, but also ultimately county-level wages and employment among commercial harvesters. Each SD increase from the climatic mean decreases county-level fishing employment by 13%, on average. The South Atlantic region serves as a control due to its different ecological response to climate. Overall, I estimate that climate variability from 1996 to 2017 is responsible for a 16% (95% CI: 10% to 22%) decline in county-level fishing employment in New England, beyond the changes in employment attributable to management or other factors. This quantitative evidence linking climate variability and fishing labor has important implications for management in New England, which employs 20% of US commercial harvesters. Because the results are mediated by the local biology and institutions, they cannot be directly extrapolated to other regions. But they show that climate can impact fishing outcomes in ways unaccounted by management and offer a template for study of this relationship in fisheries around the world.
Collapse
|
47
|
Bauer B, Gustafsson BG, Hyytiäinen K, Meier HEM, Müller-Karulis B, Saraiva S, Tomczak MT. Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea. AMBIO 2019; 48:1337-1349. [PMID: 31350721 PMCID: PMC6814650 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2018] [Revised: 01/08/2019] [Accepted: 07/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Bauer
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute of Ecology, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Bo G. Gustafsson
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palménin tie 260, Hanko, Finland
| | - Kari Hyytiäinen
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - H. E. Markus Meier
- Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Bärbel Müller-Karulis
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Voleru iela 4, 1007 Riga, Latvia
| | - Sofia Saraiva
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
- Instituto Superior Técnico, Environment and Energy Section, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
| | | |
Collapse
|
48
|
Current Crises and Potential Conflicts in Asia and the Pacific: Challenges Facing Global Health or Global Public Health by a Different Name. Prehosp Disaster Med 2019; 34:653-667. [PMID: 31608844 DOI: 10.1017/s1049023x19004953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Since 1945, the reasons for major crises and how the world responds to them have changed every 10-15 years or sooner. Whereas these crises vary greatly across global regions, their economic, environmental, ecological, social, and disease aspects are increasingly under the influence of widely integrated global changes and forces arising primarily from: climate extremes; rapid unsustainable urbanization; critical biodiversity losses; and emergencies of scarcity in water, food, and energy. These slow-moving but increasingly severe crises affect larger populations across many borders and lead to the emergence of increasing population-based, preventable public health emergencies related to water, sanitation, food, shelter, energy, and related health illnesses, and ultimately global health security. This report explores the impact of these crises on Asia and the Pacific region, and their potential for regional conflict.
Collapse
|
49
|
Predicted changes in the potential distribution of seerfish (Scomberomorus sierra) under multiple climate change scenarios in the Colombian Pacific Ocean. ECOL INFORM 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.100985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
|
50
|
Marushka L, Kenny TA, Batal M, Cheung WWL, Fediuk K, Golden CD, Salomon AK, Sadik T, Weatherdon LV, Chan HM. Potential impacts of climate-related decline of seafood harvest on nutritional status of coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0211473. [PMID: 30811408 PMCID: PMC6392226 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2018] [Accepted: 01/15/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Traditional food systems are under pressure from various stressors, including climate change which is projected to negatively alter the abundance of marine species harvested by coastal First Nations (FNs) in British Columbia (BC). OBJECTIVE To model the potential impacts of the climate-related declines in seafood production on the nutritional status of coastal BC FNs. In addition, we projected potential changes in nutrient intakes, under different scenarios of substitution where traditional seafood is replaced with alternative non-traditional foods. METHODS The study design is a mixed-method approach that combines two datasets: projected scenarios of climate-related change on seafood catch potential for coastal BC FNs and data derived from the cross-sectional First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. The consumption of seafood was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire among 356 FNs. The contribution of seafood consumption to protein, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), vitamins (A, B12, D, niacin), and minerals (zinc, selenium and iron) requirements was assessed using Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs). RESULTS Traditional seafood consumption provided daily recommendations of EPA+DHA (74-184%) and vitamin B12 (84-152%) and substantial levels of niacin (28-55%), selenium (29-55%), vitamin D (15-30%) and protein (14-30%). Projected climate change was estimated to reduce the intakes of essential nutrients by 21% and 31% under 'strong mitigation' (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6) and 'business-as-usual' (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, by the year 2050 relative to 2000. The hypothetical substitution of seafood with selected alternative non-traditional foods does not provide adequate amounts of nutrients. CONCLUSION Traditionally-harvested seafood remains fundamental to the contemporary diet and health of coastal BC FNs. Potential dietary shifts aggravated by climate-related declines in seafood consumption may have significant nutritional and health implications for BC FN. Strategies to improve access to seafood harvest potential in coastal communities are needed to ensure nutritional health and overall well-being and to promote food security and food sovereignty in coastal FNs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lesya Marushka
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tiff-Annie Kenny
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Malek Batal
- Nutrition Department, Faculty of Medicine, Université de Montréal, Pavillon Liliane de Stewart, Montreal, Québec, Canada
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Karen Fediuk
- Dietitian and Nutrition Researcher, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Christopher D. Golden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
- Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Anne K. Salomon
- School of Resource & Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tonio Sadik
- Assembly of First Nations, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Hing Man Chan
- Biology Department, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| |
Collapse
|