An Update on the Entomology, Virology, Pathogenesis, and Epidemiology Status of West Nile and Dengue Viruses in Europe (2018-2023)

In recent decades, increases in temperature and tropical rainfall have facilitated the spread of mosquito species into temperate zones. Mosquitoes are vectors for many viruses, including West Nile virus (WNV) and dengue virus (DENV), and pose a serious threat to public health. This review covers most of the current knowledge on the mosquito species associated with the transmission of WNV and DENV and their geographical distribution and discusses the main vertebrate hosts involved in the cycles of WNV or DENV. It also describes virological and pathogenic aspects of WNV or DENV infection, including emerging concepts linking WNV and DENV to the reproductive system. Furthermore, it provides an epidemiological analysis of the human cases of WNV and DENV reported in Europe, from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2023, with a particular focus on Italy. The first autochthonous cases of DENV infection, with the most likely vector being Aedes albopictus, have been observed in several European countries in recent years, with a high incidence in Italy in 2023. The lack of treatments and effective vaccines is a serious challenge. Currently, the primary strategy to prevent the spread of WNV and DENV infections in humans remains to limit the spread of mosquitoes.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Comparison of the Efficacy of Longer versus Shorter Pulsed High Dose Dapsone Combination Therapy in the Treatment of Chronic Lyme Disease/Post Treatment Lyme Disease Syndrome with Bartonellosis and Associated Coinfections

Twenty-five patients with relapsing and remitting Borreliosis, Babesiosis, and bartonellosis despite extended anti-infective therapy were prescribed double-dose dapsone combination therapy (DDDCT), followed by one or several courses of High Dose Dapsone Combination Therapy (HDDCT). A retrospective chart review of these 25 patients undergoing DDDCT therapy and HDDCT demonstrated that 100% improved their tick-borne symptoms, and patients completing 6-7 day pulses of HDDCT had superior levels of improvement versus 4-day pulses if Bartonella was present. At the completion of treatment, 7/23 (30.5%) who completed 8 weeks of DDDCT followed by a 5-7 day pulse of HDDCT remained in remission for 3-9 months, and 3/23 patients (13%) who recently finished treatment were 1 ½ months in full remission. In conclusion, DDDCT followed by 6-7 day pulses of HDDCT could represent a novel, effective anti-infective strategy in chronic Lyme disease/Post Treatment Lyme Disease Syndrome (PTLDS) and associated co-infections, including Bartonella, especially in individuals who have failed standard antibiotic protocols.

Multisectoral Perspectives on Global Warming and Vector-borne Diseases: a Focus on Southern Europe

Purpose of Review

The climate change (CC) or global warming (GW) modifies environment that favors vectors' abundance, growth, and reproduction, and consequently, the rate of development of pathogens within the vectors. This review highlights the threats of GW-induced vector-borne diseases (VBDs) in Southern Europe (SE) and the need for mitigation efforts to prevent potential global health catastrophe.

Recent Findings

Reports showed astronomical surges in the incidences of CC-induced VBDs in the SE. The recently (2022) reported first cases of African swine fever in Northern Italy and West Nile fever in SE are linked to the CC-modified environmental conditions that support vectors and pathogens' growth and development, and disease transmission.

Summary

VBDs endemic to the tropics are increasingly becoming a major health challenge in the SE, a temperate region, due to the favorable environmental conditions caused by CC/GW that support vectors and pathogens' biology in the previously non-endemic temperate regions.

The influence of climate change on food production and food safety

Food security and food safety are two concepts related to food risks. The majority of studies regarding climate change and food risks are related to the security of food provision. The objective of this study was to review the current state of knowledge of the influence of climate change on food production and food safety. The literature search was carried out by specifying each area individually (crops, ranching, fishing, food safety, etc.), including the term "climate change" and other specific factors such as CO₂, ozone, biotoxins, mortality, heat, etc.) The increase in carbon dioxide concentrations together with the increase in global temperatures theoretically produces greater yields in crops destined for human and animal consumption. However, the majority of studies have shown that crop yields are decreasing, due to the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Furthermore, these climate anomalies are irregularly distributed, with a greater impact on developing countries that have a lower capacity to address climate change. All of these factors result in greater uncertainty in terms of food provision and market speculation. An increase in average temperatures could lead to an increased risk of proliferation of micro-organisms that produce food-borne illnesses, such as salmonella and campylobacter. However, in developed countries with information systems that document the occurrence of these diseases over time, no clear trend has been determined, in part because of extensive food conservation controls.

Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV), a global arbovirus, is the most prevalent mosquito-transmitted infection in the United States. Forecasts of WNV risk during the upcoming transmission season could provide the basis for targeted mosquito control and disease prevention efforts. We developed the Arbovirus Mapping and Prediction (ArboMAP) WNV forecasting system and used it in South Dakota from 2016 to 2019. This study reports a post hoc forecast validation and model comparison.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to validate historical predictions of WNV cases with independent data that were not used for model calibration. We tested the hypothesis that predictive models based on mosquito surveillance data combined with meteorological variables were more accurate than models based on mosquito or meteorological data alone.

METHODS

The ArboMAP system incorporated models that predicted the weekly probability of observing one or more human WNV cases in each county. We compared alternative models with different predictors including a) a baseline model based only on historical WNV cases, b) mosquito models based on seasonal patterns of infection rates, c) environmental models based on lagged meteorological variables, including temperature and vapor pressure deficit, d) combined models with mosquito infection rates and lagged meteorological variables, and e) ensembles of two or more combined models. During the WNV season, models were calibrated using data from previous years and weekly predictions were made using data from the current year. Forecasts were compared with observed cases to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other metrics of spatial and temporal prediction error.

RESULTS

Mosquito and environmental models outperformed the baseline model that included county-level averages and seasonal trends of WNV cases. Combined models were more accurate than models based only on meteorological or mosquito infection variables. The most accurate model was a simple ensemble mean of the two best combined models. Forecast accuracy increased rapidly from early June through early July and was stable thereafter, with a maximum AUC of 0.85. The model predictions captured the seasonal pattern of WNV as well as year-to-year variation in case numbers and the geographic pattern of cases.

DISCUSSION

The predictions reached maximum accuracy early enough in the WNV season to allow public health responses before the peak of human cases in August. This early warning is necessary because other indicators of WNV risk, including early reports of human cases and mosquito abundance, are poor predictors of case numbers later in the season. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10287.

Legal implications of the climate-health crisis: A case study analysis of the role of public health in climate litigation

Background

Strong scientific evidence affirms that climate change is now a public health emergency. Increasingly, climate litigation brought against governments and corporations utilizes international human rights, environmental and climate laws and policies to seek accountability for climate-destructive and health-harming actions. The health impacts of climate change make litigation an important means of pursuing justice and strategically challenging legal systems. Yet there is scant documentation in the literature of the role that public health has played in climate litigation and the legal weight public health narratives are given in such contexts. Therefore, we assessed to what extent courts of law have used public health harm in legal adjudication and sought to provide practical recommendations to address barriers to positioning legal arguments in public health-centric frames.

Methods

We reviewed legal databases to identify all publicly reported, documented, cases of climate litigation filed in any country or jurisdiction between 1990 and September 2020. For the 1641 cases identified, we quantified the frequency of cases where health concerns were explicitly or implicitly raised.

Findings

Case numbers are trending upwards, notably in high income countries. Resolution remains pending in over half of cases as the majority were initiated in the past three years. Cases were primarily based in climate and human rights law and brought by a wide range of groups and individuals predominantly against governments. About half of the decided cases found in favour for the plaintiffs. Based on this, we selected the 65 cases that were directly linked to public health. We found economic forces and pricing of health risks play a key role, as courts are challenged by litigants to adjudicate on the responsibility for health impacts.

Conclusions

While courts of law are receptive to public health science, significant legal reform is needed to enhance leveraging of public health evidence in legal judgements of climate litigation cases. The integration of a public health mandate into a new eco-centric legal paradigm will optimize its potential to promote human well-being—the core objective underpinning both international law, human rights, and public health. Existing legal doctrines and practices can be enhanced to increase the weight of public health arguments in climate legal action and consequently ensure legal rulings in climate litigation prioritize, protect and promote public health.

Artificial intelligence to predict West Nile virus outbreaks with eco-climatic drivers

Background

In Europe, the frequency, intensity, and geographic range of West Nile virus (WNV)-outbreaks have increased over the past decade, with a 7.2-fold increase in 2018 compared to 2017, and a markedly expanded geographic area compared to 2010. The reasons for this increase and range expansion remain largely unknown due to the complexity of the transmission pathways and underlying disease drivers. In a first, we use advanced artificial intelligence to disentangle the contribution of eco-climatic drivers to WNV-outbreaks across Europe using decade-long (2010-2019) data at high spatial resolution.

Methods

We use a high-performance machine learning classifier, XGBoost (eXtreme gradient boosting) combined with state-of-the-art XAI (eXplainable artificial intelligence) methodology to describe the predictive ability and contribution of different drivers of the emergence and transmission of WNV-outbreaks in Europe, respectively.

Findings

Our model, trained on 2010-2017 data achieved an AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) score of 0.97 and 0.93 when tested with 2018 and 2019 data, respectively, showing a high discriminatory power to classify a WNV-endemic area. Overall, positive summer/spring temperatures anomalies, lower water availability index (NDWI), and drier winter conditions were found to be the main determinants of WNV-outbreaks across Europe. The climate trends of the preceding year in combination with eco-climatic predictors of the first half of the year provided a robust predictive ability of the entire transmission season ahead of time. For the extraordinary 2018 outbreak year, relatively higher spring temperatures and the abundance of Culex mosquitoes were the strongest predictors, in addition to past climatic trends.

Interpretation

Our AI-based framework can be deployed to trigger rapid and timely alerts for active surveillance and vector control measures in order to intercept an imminent WNV-outbreak in Europe.

Funding

The work was partially funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS for the project ARBOPREVENT (grant agreement 2018-05973).

Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)-risks and recommendations

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has rapid population growth, large differences in socio-economic levels between developed and developing countries, migration, increased water demand, and ecosystems degradation. The region is experiencing a significant warming trend with longer and warmer summers, increased frequency and severity of heat waves, and a drier climate. While climate change plays an important role in contributing to political instability in the region through displacement of people, food insecurity, and increased violence, it also increases the risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Poorer and less educated people, young children and the elderly, migrants, and those with long-term health problems are at highest risk. A result of the inequalities among EMME countries is an inconsistency in the availability of reliable evidence about the impacts on infectious diseases. To help address this gap, a search of the literature was conducted as a basis for related recommended responses and suggested actions for preparedness and prevention. Since climate change already impacts the health of vulnerable populations in the EMME and will have a greater impact in future years, risk assessment and timely design and implementation of health preparedness and adaptation strategies are essential. Joint national and cross-border infectious diseases management systems for more effective preparedness and prevention are needed, supported by interventions that improve the environment. Without such cooperation and effective interventions, climate change will lead to an increasing morbidity and mortality in the EMME from infectious diseases, with a higher risk for the most vulnerable populations.

Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Targeting the protease of West Nile virus

West Nile virus infections can cause severe neurological symptoms. During the last 25 years, cases have been reported in Asia, North America, Africa, Europe and Australia (Kunjin). No West Nile virus vaccines or specific antiviral therapies are available to date. Various viral proteins and host-cell factors have been evaluated as potential drug targets. The viral protease NS2B-NS3 is among the most promising viral targets. It releases viral proteins from a non-functional polyprotein precursor, making it a critical factor of viral replication. Despite strong efforts, no protease inhibitors have reached clinical trials yet. Substrate-derived peptidomimetics have facilitated structural elucidations of the active protease state, while alternative compounds with increased drug-likeness have recently expanded drug discovery efforts beyond the active site.

The abundance of Culex mosquito vectors for West Nile Virus and other flaviviruses: A time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature dependence in Singapore

Culex mosquitoes are important vectors of West Nile Virus (WNV), St. Louis Encephalitis Virus (SLEV) and Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV). Climate change is expected to alter their ability to spread diseases in human populations. Studies examining the influence of climate variability on Culex mosquitoes in South East Asia are scarce. We examined the influence of climate variability on reported Culex mosquito larval habitats from 2009 to 2018 in Singapore. We analysed the non-linear immediate and lagged weather dependence of Culex habitats over 5 weeks in negative binomial regression models using nationally representative data. We adjusted for the effects of long-term trend, seasonality, public holidays and autocorrelation. There were 41,170 reported Culex larval habitats over the study period. Non-residential premises were associated with more reports of habitats compared to residential premises [Rate Ratio (RR): 113.9, 95% CI: 110.9, 116.9]. Larvae in more than 90% of these habitats were entomologically identified as Culex quinquefasciatus. In residences, every 10 mm increase in rainfall above a 90 mm threshold was associated with a 10.1% [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 0.899, 95% CI: 0.836, 0.968] cumulative decline in larval habitats. Public holidays were not significantly included in the model analysing larval habitats in residences. In non-residences, a 1 °C increase in the ambient air temperature with respect to the mean was associated with a 36.0% (IRR: 1.360, 95% CI: 1.057, 1.749) cumulative increase in Culex larval habitats. Public holidays were associated with a decline in Culex larval habitats in the same week. Our study provides evidence of how ambient air temperature and rainfall variability influences the abundance of Culex mosquito larval habitats. Our findings support the utility of using weather data in predictive models to inform the timing of vector control measures aimed at reducing the risk of WNV and other Culex-borne flavivirus transmission in urban areas.

Predicting the spatio-temporal spread of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus is a widely spread arthropod-born virus, which has mosquitoes as vectors and birds as reservoirs. Humans, as dead-end hosts of the virus, may suffer West Nile Fever (WNF), which sometimes leads to death. In Europe, the first large-scale epidemic of WNF occurred in 1996 in Romania. Since then, human cases have increased in the continent, where the highest number of cases occurred in 2018. Using the location of WNF cases in 2017 and favorability models, we developed two risk models, one environmental and the other spatio-environmental, and tested their capacity to predict in 2018: 1) the location of WNF; 2) the intensity of the outbreaks (i.e. the number of confirmed human cases); and 3) the imminence of the cases (i.e. the Julian week in which the first case occurred). We found that climatic variables (the maximum temperature of the warmest month and the annual temperature range), human-related variables (rain-fed agriculture, the density of poultry and horses), and topo-hydrographic variables (the presence of rivers and altitude) were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in Europe. The spatio-environmental model was the most useful in predicting the location of WNF outbreaks, which suggests that a spatial structure, probably related to bird migration routes, has a role in the geographical pattern of WNF in Europe. Both the intensity of cases and their imminence were best predicted using the environmental model, suggesting that these features of the disease are linked to the environmental characteristics of the areas. We highlight the relevance of river basins in the propagation dynamics of the disease, as outbreaks started in the lower parts of the river basins, from where WNF spread towards the upper parts. Therefore, river basins should be considered as operational geographic units for the public health management of the disease.

Understanding national barriers to climate change adaptation for public health: a mixed-methods survey of national public health representatives

Purpose

To uncover the major government constraints to enactment and implementation of public health-targeted climate change adaptation (CCA) strategies in order to equip public health stakeholders and health advocates with the knowledge resources necessary to more effectively mobilize and support CCA for public health responses at the national level.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed-methods online survey was distributed to the representatives of national public health associations and societies of 82 countries. The survey comprised 15 questions assessing national progress on CCA for public health and the effects of various institutional, economic/financial, technical and sociopolitical barriers on national adaptive capacity.

Findings

Survey responses from 11 countries indicated that national commitments to CCA for public health have increased markedly since prior assessments but significant shortcomings remain. The largest apparent barriers to progress in this domain were poor government coordination, lack of political will and inadequate adaptation finances.

Originality/value

This study is unique in relation to the prior literature on the topic in that it effectively captures an array of country-specific yet cross-cutting adaptation constraints across diverse national contexts. With a deepened understanding of the major determinants of national adaptive capacity, international actors can devise more effective, evidence-informed strategies to support national governments in responding to the health impacts of climate change.

High Transmission Potential of West Nile Virus Lineage 1 for Cx. pipiens s.l. of Iran

: Vector competence is an important parameter in evaluating whether a species plays a role in transmission of an arbovirus. Although the protocols are similar, interpretation of results is unique given the specific interactions that exist between a mosquito population and a viral genotype. Here, we assessed the infection (IR), dissemination (DR), and transmission (TR) rates of Cx. pipiens s.l., collected from Iran, for West Nile virus (WNV) lineage 1a. We showed that Cx. pipiens s.l. mosquitoes in Iran were susceptible to WNV with IR up to 89.7%, 93.6%, and 83.9% at 7, 14, and 21 days post-infection (dpi) respectively. In addition, DR and TR reached respectively 92.3% and 75.0% at 21 dpi, and the number of viral particles delivered with saliva reached up to 1.33 × 105 particles. Therefore, an unexpected high risk of WNV dissemination in the region where Cx. pipiens s.l. mosquitoes are well established should be considered carefully and surveillance measures implemented accordingly.

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

The breadth of climate change impacts on biological systems

Human activity is driving climate change. This is affecting and will affect many aspects of life on earth. The breadth of its impacts is very wide and covers human, animal and plant health, and also the planet's biodiversity and the services that deliver benefits to people from natural capital. Finding solutions to the challenge of climate change will require multidisciplinary action in which the life sciences have a major role to play as this issue of Emerging Topics in Life Sciences indicates. More process and mechanistic knowledge could underpin solutions or even provide early warning of impacts. Any solutions will need to be developed and deployed in ways that gain and maintain public support.