Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions

The systematic codon usage bias has an important effect on genetic adaption in native species

Random mutations increase genetic variety and natural selection enhances adaption over generations. Codon usage biases (CUB) provide clues about the genome adaptation mechanisms of native species and extremophile species. Significant numbers of gene (CDS) of nine classes of endangered, native species, including extremophiles and mesophiles were utilised to compute CUB. Codon usage patterns differ among the lineages of endangered and extremophiles with native species. Polymorphic usage of nucleotides with codon burial suggests parallelism of native species within relatively confined taxonomic groups. Utilizing the deviation pattern of CUB of endangered and native species, I present a calculation parameter to estimate the extinction risk of endangered species. Species diversity and extinction risk are both positively associated with the propensity of random mutation in CDS (Coding DNA sequence). Codon bias tenet profoundly selected and it governs to adaptive evolution of native species.

Island restoration to rebuild seabird populations and amplify coral reef functioning

Mobile organisms like seabirds can provide important nutrient flows between ecosystems, but this connectivity has been interrupted by the degradation of island ecosystems. Island restoration (via invasive species eradications and the restoration of native vegetation) can reestablish seabird populations and their nutrient transfers between their foraging areas, breeding colonies, and adjacent nearshore habitats. Its diverse benefits are making island restoration increasingly common and scalable to larger islands and whole archipelagos. We identified the factors that influence breeding seabird abundances throughout the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean and conducted predictive modeling to estimate the abundances of seabirds that the archipelago could support under invasive predator eradication and native vegetation restoration scenarios. We explored whether the prey base exists to support restored seabird populations across the archipelago, calculated the nitrogen that restored populations of seabirds might produce via their guano, and modeled the cascading conservation gains that island restoration could provide. Restoration was predicted to increase breeding pairs of seabirds to over 280,000, and prey was predicted to be ample to support the revived seabird populations. Restored nutrient fluxes were predicted to result in increases in coral growth rates, reef fish biomasses, and parrotfish grazing and bioerosion rates. Given these potential cross-ecosystem benefits, our results support island restoration as a conservation priority that could enhance resilience to climatic change effects, such as sea-level rise and coral bleaching. We encourage the incorporation of our estimates of cross-ecosystem benefits in prioritization exercises for island restoration.

Cloning for the Twenty-First Century and Its Place in Endangered Species Conservation

Cloning as it relates to the animal kingdom generally refers to the production of genetically identical individuals. Because cloning is increasingly the subject of renewed attention as a tool for rescuing endangered or extinct species, it seems timely to dissect the role of the numerous reproductive techniques encompassed by this term in animal species conservation. Although cloning is typically associated with somatic cell nuclear transfer, the recent advent of additional techniques that allow genome replication without genetic recombination demands that the use of induced pluripotent stem cells to generate gametes or embryos, as well as older methods such as embryo splitting, all be included in this discussion. Additionally, the phenomenon of natural cloning (e.g., a subset of fish, birds, invertebrates, and reptilian species that reproduce via parthenogenesis) must also be pointed out. Beyond the biology of these techniques are practical considerations and the ethics of using cloning and associated procedures in endangered or extinct species. All of these must be examined in concert to determine whether cloning has a place in species conservation. Therefore, we synthesize progress in cloning and associated techniques and dissect the practical and ethical aspects of these methods as they pertain to endangered species conservation.

More than two-fifths of the protected land in a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China is under intense human pressure

Habitat loss is the main threat to global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. To prevent this, protected areas are the most effective means for safeguarding biodiversity. However, extensive habitat protection under human pressure can undermine its effectiveness. Using the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China as an indicator, we assessed the extent and intensity of human pressure to highlight how these pressures have changed over time. We found that most ecoregions had high levels of intact habitat loss relative to areal protection by national nature reserves (NNRs). More than two-fifths of protected land is under intense human pressure, and lower elevation or smaller NNRs were subject to higher pressure. These increases have predominantly occurred in lower elevation NNRs, showing that elevation gradients correlate with increasing pressure. While protected areas are increasingly established, they are experiencing intense human pressure. Our findings provide useful insights for assessing resilience of protected areas and to prioritize areas where future conservation plans and actions should be focused in a changing world.

Conservation priorities for endangered trees facing multiple threats around the world

Trees are vital to the survival of numerous species and to forest ecosystem functioning. However, the current distribution, vulnerability to extinction, and conservation priorities of globally endangered trees are not well known. We mapped the global distribution of 1686 tree species listed as endangered on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and identified conservation priority for them based on species richness, life-history traits, evolutionary distinctiveness, future climate change, and intensity of human activities. We also evaluated the impacts of various threats to these endangered tree species and evaluated the effectiveness of their protection based on the percentage of the species' range inside protected areas. The worldwide distribution of endangered trees, from the tropics through temperate zones, was uneven. Most endangered tree species were not protected in their native ranges, and only 153 species were fully protected. Hotspots of tree diversity occurred primarily in the tropics, and 79.06% of these were highly vulnerable to threats. We identified 253 areas of high priority for the conservation of endangered trees that are highly threatened and insufficiently protected. In particular, 43.42% of unprotected tree species in priority areas lacked recommended conservation measures or had no associated conservation plan. The priority conservation areas and unprotected trees we identified serve as a guideline for future management underpinning the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Maximizing the potential for living cell banks to contribute to global conservation priorities

Although cryobanking represents a powerful conservation tool, a lack of standardized information on the species represented in global cryobanks, and inconsistent prioritization of species for future sampling, hinder the conservation potential of cryobanking, resulting in missed conservation opportunities. We analyze the representation of amphibian, bird, mammal, and reptile species within the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance Frozen Zoo® living cell collection (as of April 2019) and implement a qualitative framework for the prioritization of species for future sampling. We use global conservation assessment schemes (including the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species™, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), the Alliance for Zero Extinction, the EDGE of Existence, and Climate Change Vulnerability), and opportunities for sample acquisition from the global zoo and aquarium community, to identify priority species for cryobanking. We show that 965 species, including 5% of all IUCN Red List "Threatened" amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles, were represented in the collection and that sampling from within existing zoo and aquarium collections could increase representation to 16.6% (by sampling an additional 707 "Threatened" species). High-priority species for future cryobanking efforts include the whooping crane (Grus americana), crested ibis (Nipponia nippon), and Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus). Each of these species are listed under every conservation assessment scheme and have ex situ populations available for sampling. We also provide species prioritizations based on subsets of these assessment schemes together with sampling opportunities from the global zoo and aquarium community. We highlight the difficulties in obtaining in situ samples, and encourage the formation of a global cryobanking database together with the establishment of new cryobanks in biodiversity-rich regions.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Current knowledge on the diversity of Eumolpinae (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) in New Caledonia

The Eumolpinae leaf beetles of New Caledonia are very diverse, but our knowledge about their diversity is still incomplete. Following a renewed interest in the group in the last two decades, there has been an exponential increase in the number of species described, with species descriptions and taxonomic reassessment ongoing. In this work, the catalogue of New Caledonian Eumolpinae is updated, incorporating all these recent changes, and also indicating the collection where type specimens are currently available. The updated catalogue includes 120 species in 13 genera, and more additions and taxonomic changes, including new combinations, are expected in forthcoming years. Here two new synonymies are reported, namely Dumbeastriata Jolivet, Verma & Mille, 2007 = Taophilacancellata Samuelson, 2010, syn. nov.; and Dematochromatheryi Jolivet, Verma & Mille, 2010 = Dematochromapoyensis Jolivet, Verma & Mille, 2010, syn. nov. Moreover, two species still retaining their original adscription to the genus Colaspis Fabricius, 1801, are treated as incertae sedis. This catalogue represents a useful tool for future taxonomic studies of New Caledonian Chrysomelidae and can assist biodiversity surveys and conservation studies within the archipelago.

Genomic population structure and inbreeding history of Lake Superior caribou

Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) have experienced dramatic declines in both range and population size across Canada over the past century. Boreal caribou (R. t. caribou), 1 of the 12 Designatable Units, has lost approximately half of its historic range in the last 150 years, particularly along the southern edge of its distribution. Despite this overall northward contraction, some populations have persisted at the trailing range edge, over 150 km south of the continuous boreal caribou range in Ontario, along the coast and nearshore islands of Lake Superior. The population history of caribou along Lake Superior remains unclear. It appears that these caribou likely represent a remnant distribution at the trailing edge of the receding population of boreal caribou, but they may also exhibit local adaptation to the coastal environment. A better understanding of the population structure and history of caribou along Lake Superior is important for their conservation and management. Here, we use high-coverage whole genomes (N = 20) from boreal, eastern migratory, and barren-ground caribou sampled in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec to investigate population structure and inbreeding histories. We discovered that caribou from the Lake Superior range form a distinct group but also found some evidence of gene flow with the continuous boreal caribou range. Notably, caribou along Lake Superior demonstrated relatively high levels of inbreeding (measured as runs of homozygosity; ROH) and genetic drift, which may contribute to the differentiation observed between ranges. Despite inbreeding, caribou along Lake Superior retained high heterozygosity, particularly in genomic regions without ROH. These results suggest that they present distinct genomic characteristics but also some level of gene flow with the continuous range. Our study provides key insights into the genomics of the southernmost range of caribou in Ontario, beginning to unravel the evolutionary history of these small, isolated caribou populations.

Ecology of large felids and their prey in small reserves of the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico

Jaguars and pumas are top-predator species in the Neotropics that are threatened by habitat destruction, illegal poaching of their body parts and their favored prey, and by the human-wildlife conflicts that arise when predators attack livestock. Much of the remaining felid habitat in the Americas is in protected nature reserves that are too small and isolated to support local populations. Surrounding forests therefore play a vital role in felid conservation. Successful long-term conservation of these two felids requires evidence-based knowledge of their biological and ecological requirements. We studied population distributions of jaguars and pumas and their prey in and between two small, private reserves of the Northern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, with areas of 25 and 43 km². During 2 years of camera trapping (2015 and 2016), we detected 21 jaguars, from which we estimated an average space requirement of 28-45 km²/individual. Dietary niche overlap exceeded random expectation. The most frequently occurring prey items in jaguar and puma diets were collared peccary and deer. Jaguar also favored nine-banded armadillos and white-nosed coati, while puma favored canids. Both felids avoided ocellated turkey. Overall, diet of jaguars was less species-rich, but similar in niche breadth, to that of pumas. A fluid use of space by both species, in 2015 tending toward mutual attraction and in 2016 toward partial exclusion of pumas by jaguars, combined with the high dietary overlap, is consistent with a dominance hierarchy facilitating coexistence. Jaguars and pumas favor the same prey as the people in local communities who hunt, which likely will intensify human-wildlife impacts when prey become scarce. We conclude that even small reserves play an important role in increasing the continuity of habitat for prey and large felids, whose generalist habits suppress interspecific competition for increasingly limiting prey that are largely shared between them and humans.

Size and degree of protection of native forest remnants drive the local occupancy of an endangered neotropical primate

Although the species-area relationship is well known, it may interact with and be augmented or cancelled out by other factors, such as local human disturbance. We used data on site occupancy of the Endangered blonde capuchin monkey (Sapajus flavius) based primarily on a standardized program of local interviews to model the influence of past human disturbance on the occurrence of this species across remaining forest patches of northeastern Brazil within the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga biomes. To do so, we assessed environmental covariates that best represent the history of human impacts. We then used single-species occupancy models to assess site occupancy, while controlling for detection error during sampling. Surprisingly, we obtained a higher occupancy rate in the more arid Caatinga remnants than in the more mesic Atlantic Forest. Habitat patch size, history of site protection, and annual precipitation were the best predictors of local occupancy. Historical human disturbance, including subsistence hunting, has exerted considerable impact on the modern distribution of the blonde capuchin, whose geographic range largely spans a region historically lacking any wildlife protection. Matrix vegetation structure across the Caatinga, which so far has averted large-scale mechanized agriculture, also creates a benign landscape that likely benefits contemporary capuchin occupancy. Local extinctions of this endangered primate will most likely continue unabated unless a ban on hunting in remaining Atlantic Forest and Caatinga fragments can be enforced.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Small but visible: Predicting rare bryophyte distribution and richness patterns using remote sensing-based ensembles of small models

In Canadian boreal forests, bryophytes represent an essential component of biodiversity and play a significant role in ecosystem functioning. Despite their ecological importance and sensitivity to disturbances, bryophytes are overlooked in conservation strategies due to knowledge gaps on their distribution, which is known as the Wallacean shortfall. Rare species deserve priority attention in conservation as they are at a high risk of extinction. This study aims to elaborate predictive models of rare bryophyte species in Canadian boreal forests using remote sensing-derived predictors in an Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs) framework. We hypothesize that high ESMs-based prediction accuracy can be achieved for rare bryophyte species despite their low number of occurrences. We also assess if there is a spatial correspondence between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns. The study area is located in western Quebec and covers 72,292 km2. We selected 52 bryophyte species with <30 occurrences from a presence-only database (214 species, 389 plots in total). ESMs were built from Random Forest and Maxent techniques using remote sensing-derived predictors related to topography and vegetation. Lee's L statistic was used to assess and map the spatial relationship between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns. ESMs yielded poor to excellent prediction accuracy (AUC > 0.5) for 73% of the modeled species, with AUC values > 0.8 for 19 species, which confirmed our hypothesis. In fact, ESMs provided better predictions for the rarest bryophytes. Likewise, our study revealed a spatial concordance between rare and overall bryophyte richness patterns in different regions of the study area, which have important implications for conservation planning. This study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for assessing and making predictions on inconspicuous and rare species across the landscape and lays the basis for the eventual inclusion of bryophytes into sustainable development planning.

Tropical Important Plant Areas, plant species richness and conservation in the British Virgin Islands

The global loss of biodiversity is a pressing and urgent issue and halting loss is the focus of many international agreements and targets. However, data on species distribution, threats and protection are limited and sometimes lacking in many parts of the world. The British Virgin Islands (BVI), part of the Puerto Rican Bank Floristic Region in the Caribbean Biodiversity Hotspot, is rich in plant diversity and regional endemism. Despite the established network of National Parks in the BVI and decades of botanical data from international collaboration between the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew and the National Parks Trust of the Virgin Islands, there was a need for consolidated data on species distribution across the archipelago and national lists for threatened and rare plants of conservation concern. The process of identifying the network of 18 Tropical Important Plant Areas (TIPAs) in the BVI, completed in 2018, delivered national lists and accurate data for all 35 Species of Conservation Concern. These data (3688 georeferenced records) are analysed here to reveal species distribution across the archipelago, within the TIPAs network and the National Parks System. The TIPAs network contained all 35 Species of Conservation Concern and 91% of all the records, as expected. Ten out of the 21 National Parks had one or more of the species present. Most species occur across the archipelago, while some are restricted range and/or endemics. These new data will help management of plant conservation efforts and resources in the BVI, contributing to the revision of the Protected Areas System Plan and local environmental policies and have relevance to the wider Caribbean Region.

Scientists' warning - The outstanding biodiversity of islands is in peril

Despite islands contributing only 6.7% of land surface area, they harbor ~20% of the Earth’s biodiversity, but unfortunately also ~50% of the threatened species and 75% of the known extinctions since the European expansion around the globe. Due to their geological and geographic history and characteristics, islands act simultaneously as cradles of evolutionary diversity and museums of formerly widespread lineages—elements that permit islands to achieve an outstanding endemicity. Nevertheless, the majority of these endemic species are inherently vulnerable due to genetic and demographic factors linked with the way islands are colonized. Here, we stress the great variation of islands in their physical geography (area, isolation, altitude, latitude) and history (age, human colonization, human density). We provide examples of some of the most species rich and iconic insular radiations. Next, we analyze the natural vulnerability of the insular biota, linked to genetic and demographic factors as a result of founder events as well as the typically small population sizes of many island species. We note that, whereas evolution toward island syndromes (including size shifts, derived insular woodiness, altered dispersal ability, loss of defense traits, reduction in clutch size) might have improved the ability of species to thrive under natural conditions on islands, it has simultaneously made island biota disproportionately vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss, overexploitation, invasive species, and climate change. This has led to the documented extinction of at least 800 insular species in the past 500 years, in addition to the many that had already gone extinct following the arrival of first human colonists on islands in prehistoric times. Finally, we summarize current scientific knowledge on the ongoing biodiversity loss on islands worldwide and express our serious concern that the current trajectory will continue to decimate the unique and irreplaceable natural heritage of the world’s islands. We conclude that drastic actions are urgently needed to bend the curve of the alarming rates of island biodiversity loss.

Vulnerability of island insect pollinator communities to pathogens

Island ecosystems, which often contain undescribed insects and small populations of single island endemics, are at risk from diverse threats. The spread of pathogens is a major factor affecting not just pollinator species themselves, but also posing significant knock-on effects to often fragile island ecosystems through disruption of pollination networks. Insects are vulnerable to diverse pathogens and these can be introduced to islands in a number of ways, e.g. via the introduction of infected managed pollinator hosts (e.g. honey bees and their viruses, in particular Deformed wing virus), long-range migrants (e.g. monarch butterflies and their protozoan parasite, Ophryocystit elektroscirrha) and invasive species (e.g. social wasps are common invaders and are frequently infected with multi-host viruses such as Kashmir bee virus and Moku virus). Furthermore, these introductions can negatively affect island ecosystems through outcompeting native taxa for resources. As such, the greatest threat to island pollinator communities is not one particular pathogen, but the combination of pathogens and introduced and invasive insects that will likely carry them.

Comparison of adult census size and effective population size support the need for continued protection of two Solomon Island endemics

Because a population's ability to respond to rapid change is dictated by standing genetic variation, we can better predict a population's long-term viability by estimating and then comparing adult census size (N) and effective population size (N _e ). However, most studies only measure N or N _e , which can be misleading. Using a combination of field and genomic sequence data, we here estimate and compare N and N _e in two range-restricted endemics of the Solomon Islands. Two Zosterops White-eye species inhabit the small island of Kolombangara, with a high elevation species endemic to the island (Z. murphyi) and a low elevation species endemic to the Solomon Islands (Z. kulambangrae). Field observations reveal large values of N for both species with Z. kulambangrae numbering at 114,781 ± 32,233 adults, and Z. murphyi numbering at 64,412 ± 15,324 adults. In contrast, genomic analyses reveal that N _e was much lower than N, with Z. kulambangrae estimated at 694.5 and Z. murphyi at 796.1 individuals. Further, positive Tajima's D values for both species suggest that they have experienced a demographic contraction, providing a mechanism for low values of N _e . Comparison of N and N _e suggests that Z. kulambangrae and Z. murphyi are not at immediate threat of extinction but may be at genetic risk. Our results provide important baseline data for long-term monitoring of these island endemics, and argue for measuring both population size estimates to better gauge long-term population viability.

Diversification of the Balloon bushcrickets (Orthoptera, Hexacentrinae, Aerotegmina) in the East African mountains

East African mountains constitute a network of isolated habitat islands among dry savannah and are thus ideal for studying species diversification processes. This study elucidated the phylogenetic and phylogeographic relationships of all bushcricket species comprising the genus Aerotegmina. Our analysis indicated that large-scale climatic and topographic processes in Africa are likely to have driven speciation in this group, and revealed the cytogenetic traits of the species. Molecular phylogeny supported the monophyly of Aerotegmina and showed that the genus probably originated in the old Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya. Two lineages were distinguished: small- and large-sized species with geographically distinct habitats. The underlying processes are thought to be eight dispersals, ten vicariance events, and one extinction event linked to repeated fragmentation of the African rainforest. Those processes, in conjunction with habitat change, probably also led to the spatial separation of the species into a northern clade with a diploid number of chromosomes 2n = 32 + X0 or 2n = 30 + neo-XY and a southern clade with a reduced number of chromosomes (2n = 28 + X0 or 24 + neo-X₁X₂Y). Karyotype analysis suggests that Aerotegmina is currently in the process of speciation.

A metric for spatially explicit contributions to science-based species targets

The Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will probably include a goal to stabilize and restore the status of species. Its delivery would be facilitated by making the actions required to halt and reverse species loss spatially explicit. Here, we develop a species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric that is scalable across species, threats and geographies. STAR quantifies the contributions that abating threats and restoring habitats in specific places offer towards reducing extinction risk. While every nation can contribute towards halting biodiversity loss, Indonesia, Colombia, Mexico, Madagascar and Brazil combined have stewardship over 31% of total STAR values for terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals. Among actions, sustainable crop production and forestry dominate, contributing 41% of total STAR values for these taxonomic groups. Key Biodiversity Areas cover 9% of the terrestrial surface but capture 47% of STAR values. STAR could support governmental and non-state actors in quantifying their contributions to meeting science-based species targets within the framework.

Complex Small-Holder Agriculture in Rainforest Buffer Zone, Sri Lanka, Supports Endemic Birds

The Sinharaja rainforest in southwestern Sri Lanka is a protected forest in a largely agriculture-dominated landscape. In keeping with global UNESCO global biosphere reserves planning, the Sinharaja is surrounded by a buffer zone of regenerating forest and villages with small tea plots and multi-strata tree gardens (homegardens). Globally, however, conservation planning lacks standards on buffer zone management. We ask what relationships exist between village land use and bird assemblages, which are effective ecosystem indicators. Birds have been little studied across land use and vegetation structure in actively managed, large, protected forest buffer zones. To that end, we ran spatially- and temporally-replicated bird point counts across tree gardens, forest fragments, and tea plots within a Sinharaja village. Tree gardens held a greater abundance of birds across habitat association, conservation concern, diet, and endemic species than forest fragments or tea plots. Forest fragments and tree gardens hosted statistically similar numbers of birds in some subsets, but their species assemblages differed. In tea plots, greater shade tree species richness correlated with greater bird abundance and species richness. Our results support the argument for programs to support complex small-scale tree-based agroforestry embedded in buffer zone regenerating forest.

Human activities and elevational constraints restrict ranging patterns of snub-nosed monkeys in a mountainous refuge

Both natural conditions and anthropogenic factors affect the survivability, distribution, and population density of wildlife. To understand the extent and how these factors drive species distributions, a detailed description of animal movement patterns in natural habitats is needed. In this study, we used satellite telemetry to monitor elevational ranges favored by endangered golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana), in the Qinling Mountains, central China. We investigated the abundance and distribution of food resources through sampling vegetation quadrats at different elevations and sampled anthropogenic activities using field surveys. Our results indicated that although there was no significant variation in food resources between low- (<1500 m) and middle-elevations (1500-2200 m), monkeys were found most often in areas above 1500 m, where there was less anthropogenic development (e.g. houses and roads); however, monkeys rarely ranged above 2200 m and had limited food availability at this altitude. There was limited human disturbance at this elevation. We suggest that both human activity and ecological constraints (i.e. food resources) have considerable effects on elevational use of R. roxellana in the Qinling Mountains. This study highlights the critical roles these factors can play in shaping the vertical distribution of high-altitude primates. This research provides useful insights for habitat-based conservation plans in which human disturbance management and habitat restoration should be prioritized.

Elevation and landscape change drive the distribution of a montane, endemic grassland bird

CONTEXT

Tropical montane habitats support high biodiversity and are hotspots of endemism, with grasslands being integral components of many such landscapes. The montane grasslands of the Western Ghats have seen extensive land-use change over anthropogenic timescales. The factors influencing the ability of grassland-dependent species to persist in habitats experiencing loss and fragmentation, particularly in montane grasslands, are poorly known.

OBJECTIVES

We studied the relationship between the Nilgiri pipit Anthus nilghiriensis, a threatened endemic bird that typifies these montane grasslands, and its habitat, across most of its global distribution. We examined what habitat features make remnant grasslands viable, which is necessary for their effective management.

METHODS

We conducted 663 surveys in 170 sites and used both single-season occupancy modeling and N-mixture modeling to account for processes influencing detection, presence, and abundance.

RESULTS

Elevation had a positive influence on species presence, patch size had a moderate positive influence, and patch isolation had a moderate negative influence. Species abundance was positively influenced by elevation and characteristics related to habitat structure, and negatively influenced by the presence of invasive woody vegetation.

CONCLUSIONS

The strong effect of elevation on the highly range-restricted Nilgiri pipit is likely to make it vulnerable to climate change. This highly range-restricted species is locally extinct at several locations, and persists at low densities in remnants of its habitat left by recent fragmentation. Our findings indicate a need to control and reverse the spread of exotic woody invasives to preserve the grasslands themselves and the specialist species dependent upon them.

Ecological generalism and resilience of tropical island mammals to logging: A 23 year test

Tropical forest disturbance is a key driver of global biodiversity decline. On continents, the effects of logging are greatest on endemic species, presumably because disturbance is more likely to cover narrower distributions (the "cookie cutter" model). Islands hold disproportionate biodiversity, and are subject to accelerating biotic homogenization, where specialist endemics are lost while generalists persist. We tested responses of tropical island mammals to logging at multiple spatial scales, using a long-term experimental test in a Pacific archipelago. The most widely distributed ecological generalists did not decline after logging, and we detected no overall changes in relative abundance or species diversity. However, endemics with small ranges did decline in response to logging. The least mobile and most range-restricted species declined even at the smallest spatial scale, supporting the cookie cutter model for sedentary species, and suggesting that habitat change due to selective logging is contributing to biotic homogenization on islands.

Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios

Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1–3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Spatial distribution and conservation hotspots of mammals in Canada

High-latitude countries often contain the polar range edge of species that are common farther south, potentially focusing national conservation efforts toward range-edge populations. The global conservation value of edge populations is controversial, but if they occur where biodiversity is high, there need not be trade-offs in protecting them. Using 152 of 158 terrestrial mammal species in Canada, we tested how species’ distributions relate to their national conservation status and total mammal richness. We found that half of “Canadian” mammals had <20% of their global range in Canada. National threat status was strongly associated with range area; mammals considered “at risk” had 42% smaller Canadian ranges than mammals considered secure. However, after accounting for range area, taxa with smaller proportions of their global range in Canada were not more likely to be considered at risk, suggesting edge populations are not inherently more vulnerable. When we calculated mammal diversity across Canada (100 × 100 km grid cells), we found that hotspots of at-risk or range-edge mammals were twice as species rich as nonhotspot cells, containing up to 44% of Canadian mammal diversity per grid cell. Our results suggest that protecting areas with the most at-risk or range-edge mammals would simultaneously protect habitat for many species currently deemed secure.

Quantifying resistance and resilience to local extinction for conservation prioritization

Species-focused conservation planning is often based on reducing local extinction risk at key sites. However, with increasing levels of habitat fragmentation and pressures from climate change and overexploitation, surrounding landscapes also influence the persistence of species populations, and their effects are increasingly incorporated in conservation planning and management for both species and communities. Here, we present a framework based on metapopulation dynamics in fragmented landscapes, for quantifying the survival (resistance) and reestablishment of species populations following localized extinction events (resilience). We explore the application of this framework to guide the conservation of a group of threatened bird species endemic to papyrus (Cyperus papyrus) swamps in East and Central Africa. Using occupancy data for five species collected over two years from a network of wetlands in Uganda, we determine the local and landscape factors that influence local extinction and colonization, and map expected rates of population turnover across the network to draw inferences about the locations that contribute most to regional resistance and resilience for all species combined. Slight variation in the factors driving extinction and colonization between individual papyrus birds led to species-specific differences in the spatial patterns of site-level resistance and resilience. However, despite this, locations with the highest resistance and/or resilience overlapped for most species and reveal where resources could be invested for multispecies persistence. This novel simplified framework can aid decision making associated with conservation planning and prioritization for multiple species residing in overlapping, fragmented habitats; helping to identify key sites that warrant urgent conservation protection, with consideration of the need to adapt and respond to future change.

Assessing the risks to United States and Canadian mammals caused by climate change using a trait-mediated model

A set of 182 populations of 76 mammal species in the United States and Canada, examined in natural conditions with minimized disturbances or management effects, shows that responses to climate change include negative responses, such as elevational range contractions, upward shifts and decreases in abundance, positive responses, such as range expansions, and no detectable responses. Responses vary among and within mammal species but many are correlated with species traits, particularly the responses linked to high extinction risks (= climate change risk: decreases in population sizes, range contractions, local extirpations). The traits showing the strongest links to differential responses to climate change are 1) body size—large mammals respond more often and most negatively to climate change, 2) activity times—few mammals with flexible active times respond to climate change, and 3) spatial distribution—high-latitude and high-elevation mammals responded more often to climate change. Using these traits and two approaches to trait weighting, I modeled the relative climate change risk for all 328 terrestrial, nonvolant mammal species in the United States and Canada across 10 levels of risk (low = 1–2, moderate = 3–4, moderate-high = 5–6, high = 7–8, very high = 9–10). The models predicted that 15% of these mammalian species are in the high- and very high-risk categories, including species from most orders. Many mammal populations and species listed as of conservation concern due to other human impacts by national or international agencies are also predicted by my models to be in the higher categories of climate change risk. My intention for these models is to clarify for managers and researchers which, where, and how mammals are responding to climate change relatively independent of other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., large-scale habitat change, overhunting) and to provide a preliminary assessment of species most in need of careful monitoring for climate change impacts.

Vulnerability to climate change of islands worldwide and its impact on the tree of life

Island systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which is predicted to induce shifts in temperature, rainfall and/or sea levels. Our aim was: (i) to map the relative vulnerability of islands to each of these threats from climate change on a worldwide scale; (ii) to estimate how island vulnerability would impact phylogenetic diversity. We focused on monocotyledons, a major group of flowering plants that includes taxa of important economic value such as palms, grasses, bananas, taro. Islands that were vulnerable to climate change were found at all latitudes, e.g. in Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, Pacific countries, the United States, although they were more common near the equator. The loss of highly vulnerable islands would lead to relatively low absolute loss of plant phylogenetic diversity. However, these losses tended to be higher than expected by chance alone even in some highly vulnerable insular systems. This suggests the possible collapse of deep and long branches in vulnerable islands. Measuring the vulnerability of each island is a first step towards a risk analysis to identify where the impacts of climate change are the most likely and what may be their consequences on biodiversity.

Using the past to contextualize anthropogenic impacts on the present and future distribution of an endemic Caribbean mammal

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975-2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km² corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights.

Review of the status and conservation of tenrecs (Mammalia: Afrotheria: Tenrecidae)

The mammal family Tenrecidae (Afrotheria: Afrosoricida) is endemic to Madagascar. Here we present the conservation priorities for the 31 species of tenrec that were assessed or reassessed in 2015–2016 for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Six species (19.4%) were found to be threatened (4 Vulnerable, 2 Endangered) and one species was categorized as Data Deficient. The primary threat to tenrecs is habitat loss, mostly as a result of slash-and-burn agriculture, but some species are also threatened by hunting and incidental capture in fishing traps. In the longer term, climate change is expected to alter tenrec habitats and ranges. However, the lack of data for most tenrecs on population size, ecology and distribution, together with frequent changes in taxonomy (with many cryptic species being discovered based on genetic analyses) and the poorly understood impact of bushmeat hunting on spiny species (Tenrecinae), hinders conservation planning. Priority conservation actions are presented for Madagascar's tenrecs for the first time since 1990 and focus on conserving forest habitat (especially through improved management of protected areas) and filling essential knowledge gaps. Tenrec research, monitoring and conservation should be integrated into broader sustainable development objectives and programmes targeting higher profile species, such as lemurs, if we are to see an improvement in the conservation status of tenrecs in the near future.