Evidence for a hierarchy of predictions and prediction errors in human cortex

Propofol-mediated loss of consciousness disrupts predictive routing and local field phase modulation of neural activity

Predictive coding is a fundamental function of the cortex. The predictive routing model proposes a neurophysiological implementation for predictive coding. Predictions are fed back from the deep-layer cortex via alpha/beta (8 to 30 Hz) oscillations. They inhibit the gamma (40 to 100 Hz) and spiking that feed sensory inputs forward. Unpredicted inputs arrive in circuits unprepared by alpha/beta, resulting in enhanced gamma and spiking. To test the predictive routing model and its role in consciousness, we collected data from intracranial recordings of macaque monkeys during passive presentation of auditory oddballs before and after propofol-mediated loss of consciousness (LOC). In line with the predictive routing model, alpha/beta oscillations in the awake state served to inhibit the processing of predictable stimuli. Propofol-mediated LOC eliminated alpha/beta modulation by a predictable stimulus in the sensory cortex and alpha/beta coherence between sensory and frontal areas. As a result, oddball stimuli evoked enhanced gamma power, late period (>200 ms from stimulus onset) spiking, and superficial layer sinks in the sensory cortex. LOC also resulted in diminished decodability of pattern-level prediction error signals in the higher-order cortex. Therefore, the auditory cortex was in a disinhibited state during propofol-mediated LOC. However, despite these enhanced feedforward responses in the auditory cortex, there was a loss of differential spiking to oddballs in the higher-order cortex. This may be a consequence of a loss of within-area and interareal spike-field coupling in the alpha/beta and gamma frequency bands. These results provide strong constraints for current theories of consciousness.

Adaptation patterns and their associations with mismatch negativity: An electroencephalogram (EEG) study with controlled expectations

Adaptation refers to the decreased neural response that occurs after repeated exposure to a stimulus. While many electroencephalogram (EEG) studies have investigated adaptation by using either single or multiple repetitions, the adaptation patterns under controlled expectations manifested in the two main auditory components, N1 and P2, are still largely unknown. Additionally, although multiple repetitions are commonly used in mismatch negativity (MMN) experiments, it is unclear how adaptation at different time windows contributes to this phenomenon. In this study, we conducted an EEG experiment with 37 healthy adults using a random stimulus arrangement and extended tone sequences to control expectations. We tracked the amplitudes of the N1 and P2 components across the first 10 tones to examine adaptation patterns. Our findings revealed an L-shaped adaptation pattern characterised by a significant decrease in N1 amplitude after the first repetition (N1 initial adaptation), followed by a continuous, linear increase in P2 amplitude after the first repetition (P2 subsequent adaptation), possibly indicating model adjustment. Regression analysis demonstrated that the peak amplitudes of both the N1 initial adaptation and the P2 subsequent adaptation significantly accounted for variance in MMN amplitude. These results suggest distinct adaptation patterns for multiple repetitions across different components and indicate that the MMN reflects a combination of two processes: the initial adaptation in the N1 and a continuous model adjustment effect in the P2. Understanding these processes separately could have implications for models of cognitive processing and clinical disorders.

Physiological properties of auditory neurons responding to omission deviants in the anesthetized rat

The detection of novel, low probability events in the environment is critical for survival. To perform this vital task, our brain is continuously building and updating a model of the outside world; an extensively studied phenomenon commonly referred to as predictive coding. Predictive coding posits that the brain is continuously extracting regularities from the environment to generate predictions. These predictions are then used to supress neuronal responses to redundant information, filtering those inputs, which then automatically enhances the remaining, unexpected inputs. We have recently described the ability of auditory neurons to generate predictions about expected sensory inputs by detecting their absence in an oddball paradigm using omitted tones as deviants. Here, we studied the responses of individual neurons to omitted tones by presenting individual sequences of repetitive pure tones, using both random and periodic omissions, presented at both fast and slow rates in the inferior colliculus and auditory cortex neurons of anesthetized rats. Our goal was to determine whether feature-specific dependence of these predictions exists. Results showed that omitted tones could be detected at both high (8 Hz) and slow repetition rates (2 Hz), with detection being more robust at the non-lemniscal auditory pathway.

Effective Connectivity Network of Aberrant Prediction Error Processing in Auditory Phantom Perception

Introduction: Prediction error (PE) is key to perception in the predictive coding framework. However, previous studies indicated the varied neural activities evoked by PE in tinnitus patients. Here, we aimed to reconcile the conflict by (1) a more nuanced view of PE, which could be driven by changing stimulus (stimulus-driven PE [sPE]) and violation of current context (context-driven PE [cPE]) and (2) investigating the aberrant connectivity networks that are engaged in the processing of the two types of PEs in tinnitus patients. Methods: Ten tinnitus patients with normal hearing and healthy controls were recruited, and a local-global auditory oddball paradigm was applied to measure the electroencephalographic difference between the two groups during sPE and cPE conditions. Results: Overall, the sPE condition engaged bottom-up and top-down connections, whereas the cPE condition engaged mostly top-down connections. The tinnitus group showed decreased sensitivity to the sPE and increased sensitivity to the cPE condition. Particularly, the auditory cortex and posterior cingulate cortex were the hubs for processing cPE in the control and tinnitus groups, respectively, showing the orientation to an internal state in tinnitus. Furthermore, tinnitus patients showed stronger connectivity to the parahippocampus and pregenual anterior cingulate cortex for the establishment of the prediction during the cPE condition. Conclusion: These results begin to dissect the role of changes in stimulus characteristics versus changes in the context of processing the same stimulus in mechanisms of tinnitus generation. Impact Statement This study delves into the number dynamics of prediction error (PE) in tinnitus, proposing a dual framework distinguishing between stimulus-driven PE (sPE) and context-driven PE (cPE). Electroencephalographic data from tinnitus patients and controls revealed distinct connectivity patterns during sPE and cPE conditions. Tinnitus patients exhibited reduced sensitivity to sPE and increased sensitivity to cPE. The auditory cortex and posterior cingulate cortex emerged as pivotal regions for cPE processing in controls and tinnitus patients, indicative of an internal state orientation in tinnitus. Enhanced connectivity to the parahippocampus and pregenual anterior cingulate cortex underscores the role of context in tinnitus pathophysiology.

Language experience shapes predictive coding of rhythmic sound sequences

Perceptual systems heavily rely on prior knowledge and predictions to make sense of the environment. Predictions can originate from multiple sources of information, including contextual short-term priors, based on isolated temporal situations, and context-independent long-term priors, arising from extended exposure to statistical regularities. While the effects of short-term predictions on auditory perception have been well-documented, how long-term predictions shape early auditory processing is poorly understood. To address this, we recorded magnetoencephalography data from native speakers of two languages with different word orders (Spanish: functor-initial vs Basque: functor-final) listening to simple sequences of binary sounds alternating in duration with occasional omissions. We hypothesized that, together with contextual transition probabilities, the auditory system uses the characteristic prosodic cues (duration) associated with the native language's word order as an internal model to generate long-term predictions about incoming non-linguistic sounds. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found that the amplitude of the mismatch negativity elicited by sound omissions varied orthogonally depending on the speaker's linguistic background and was most pronounced in the left auditory cortex. Importantly, listening to binary sounds alternating in pitch instead of duration did not yield group differences, confirming that the above results were driven by the hypothesized long-term 'duration' prior. These findings show that experience with a given language can shape a fundamental aspect of human perception - the neural processing of rhythmic sounds - and provides direct evidence for a long-term predictive coding system in the auditory cortex that uses auditory schemes learned over a lifetime to process incoming sound sequences.

Surprising sounds influence risky decision making

Adaptive behavior depends on appropriate responses to environmental uncertainty. Incidental sensory events might simply be distracting and increase errors, but alternatively can lead to stereotyped responses despite their irrelevance. To evaluate these possibilities, we test whether task-irrelevant sensory prediction errors influence risky decision making in humans across seven experiments (total n = 1600). Rare auditory sequences preceding option presentation systematically increase risk taking and decrease choice perseveration (i.e., increased tendency to switch away from previously chosen options). The risk-taking and perseveration effects are dissociable by manipulating auditory statistics: when rare sequences end on standard tones, including when rare sequences consist only of standard tones, participants are less likely to perseverate after rare sequences but not more likely to take risks. Computational modeling reveals that these effects cannot be explained by increased decision noise but can be explained by value-independent risky bias and perseveration parameters, decision biases previously linked to dopamine. Control experiments demonstrate that both surprise effects can be eliminated when tone sequences are presented in a balanced or fully predictable manner, and that surprise effects cannot be explained by erroneous beliefs. These findings suggest that incidental sounds may influence many of the decisions we make in daily life.

Can the Mismatch Negativity Really Be Elicited by Abstract Linguistic Contrasts?

The mismatch negativity (MMN) is an event-related potential component that reflects pre-attentive change detection in the brain. As an electrophysiological index of processing that responds to differences in incoming consecutive stimuli, the MMN can be elicited through, for example, the presentation of two different categories of sounds in an oddball paradigm where sounds from the "standard" category occur frequently and sounds from the "deviant" category occur rarely. The specificity of what can elicit the MMN is yet to be fully defined. Here we test whether the MMN can be generated by an abstract linguistic contrast with no reliable acoustic cue. Previous studies have shown that the way in which an acoustic cue is used to elicit MMN is influenced by linguistic knowledge, but have not shown that a nonacoustic, abstract linguistic contrast can itself elicit MMN. In this study, we test the strongest interpretation of the claim that the MMN can be generated through a purely linguistic contrast by contrasting tenses in ablauting irregular English verbs (where there is no reliable acoustic cue for tense). We find that this contrast elicits a negativity, as do other linguistic contrasts previously shown to elicit MMN (a contrast between phonologically voiced and phonologically voiceless segments and a purely acoustic contrast between aspirated and unaspirated segments). The findings provide evidence that the MMN is indeed sensitive to purely abstract linguistic categories.

Chronic pain - A maladaptive compensation to unbalanced hierarchical predictive processing

The ability to perceive pain presents an interesting evolutionary advantage to adapt to an ever-changing environment. However, in the case of chronic pain (CP), pain perception hinders the capacity of the system to adapt to changing sensory environments. Similar to other chronic perceptual disorders, CP is also proposed to be a maladaptive compensation to aberrant sensory predictive processing. The local-global oddball paradigm relies on learning hierarchical rules and processing environmental irregularities at a local and global level. Prediction errors (PE) between actual and predicted input typically trigger an update of the forward model to limit the probability of encountering future PEs. It has been hypothesised that CP hinders forward model updating, reflected in increased local deviance and decreased global deviance. In the present study, we used the local-global paradigm to examine how CP influences hierarchical learning relative to healthy controls. As hypothesised, we observed that deviance in the stimulus characteristics evoked heightened local deviance and decreased global deviance of the stimulus-driven PE. This is also accompanied by respective changes in theta phase locking that is correlated with the subjective pain perception. Changes in the global deviant in the stimulus-driven-PE could also be explained by dampened attention-related responses. Changing the context of the auditory stimulus did not however show a difference in the context-driven PE. These findings suggest that CP is accompanied by maladaptive forward model updating where the constant presence of pain perception disrupts local deviance in non-nociceptive domains. Furthermore, we hypothesise that the auditory-processing based biomarker identified here could be a marker of domain-general dysfunction that could be confirmed by future research.

Crossmodal hierarchical predictive coding for audiovisual sequences in the human brain

Predictive coding theory suggests the brain anticipates sensory information using prior knowledge. While this theory has been extensively researched within individual sensory modalities, evidence for predictive processing across sensory modalities is limited. Here, we examine how crossmodal knowledge is represented and learned in the brain, by identifying the hierarchical networks underlying crossmodal predictions when information of one sensory modality leads to a prediction in another modality. We record electroencephalogram (EEG) during a crossmodal audiovisual local-global oddball paradigm, in which the predictability of transitions between tones and images are manipulated at both the stimulus and sequence levels. To dissect the complex predictive signals in our EEG data, we employed a model-fitting approach to untangle neural interactions across modalities and hierarchies. The model-fitting result demonstrates that audiovisual integration occurs at both the levels of individual stimulus interactions and multi-stimulus sequences. Furthermore, we identify the spatio-spectro-temporal signatures of prediction-error signals across hierarchies and modalities, and reveal that auditory and visual prediction errors are rapidly redirected to the central-parietal electrodes during learning through alpha-band interactions. Our study suggests a crossmodal predictive coding mechanism where unimodal predictions are processed by distributed brain networks to form crossmodal knowledge.

An Integrated theory of false insights and beliefs under psychedelics

Psychedelics are recognised for their potential to re-orient beliefs. We propose a model of how psychedelics can, in some cases, lead to false insights and thus false beliefs. We first review experimental work on laboratory-based false insights and false memories. We then connect this to insights and belief formation under psychedelics using the active inference framework. We propose that subjective and brain-based alterations caused by psychedelics increases the quantity and subjective intensity of insights and thence beliefs, including false ones. We offer directions for future research in minimising the risk of false and potentially harmful beliefs arising from psychedelics. Ultimately, knowing how psychedelics may facilitate false insights and beliefs is crucial if we are to optimally leverage their therapeutic potential.

Cortical-subcortical interactions underlie processing of auditory predictions measured with 7T fMRI

Perception integrates both sensory inputs and internal models of the environment. In the auditory domain, predictions play a critical role because of the temporal nature of sounds. However, the precise contribution of cortical and subcortical structures in these processes and their interaction remain unclear. It is also unclear whether these brain interactions are specific to abstract rules or if they also underlie the predictive coding of local features. We used high-field 7T functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate interactions between cortical and subcortical areas during auditory predictive processing. Volunteers listened to tone sequences in an oddball paradigm where the predictability of the deviant was manipulated. Perturbations in periodicity were also introduced to test the specificity of the response. Results indicate that both cortical and subcortical auditory structures encode high-order predictive dynamics, with the effect of predictability being strongest in the auditory cortex. These predictive dynamics were best explained by modeling a top-down information flow, in contrast to unpredicted responses. No error signals were observed to deviations of periodicity, suggesting that these responses are specific to abstract rule violations. Our results support the idea that the high-order predictive dynamics observed in subcortical areas propagate from the auditory cortex.

Statistical Learning of Incidental Perceptual Regularities Induces Sensory Conditioned Cortical Responses

Statistical learning of sensory patterns can lead to predictive neural processes enhancing stimulus perception and enabling fast deviancy detection. Predictive processes have been extensively demonstrated when environmental statistical regularities are relevant to task execution. Preliminary evidence indicates that statistical learning can even occur independently of task relevance and top-down attention, although the temporal profile and neural mechanisms underlying sensory predictions and error signals induced by statistical learning of incidental sensory regularities remain unclear. In our study, we adopted an implicit sensory conditioning paradigm that elicited the generation of specific perceptual priors in relation to task-irrelevant audio-visual associations, while recording Electroencephalography (EEG). Our results showed that learning task-irrelevant associations between audio-visual stimuli resulted in anticipatory neural responses to predictive auditory stimuli conveying anticipatory signals of expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Moreover, we observed specific modulation of cortical responses to probabilistic visual stimulus presentation or omission. Pattern similarity analysis indicated that predictive auditory stimuli tended to resemble the response to expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Remarkably, Hierarchical Gaussian filter modeling estimating dynamic changes of prediction error signals in relation to differential probabilistic occurrences of audio-visual stimuli further demonstrated instantiation of predictive neural signals by showing distinct neural processing of prediction error in relation to violation of expected visual stimulus presence or absence. Overall, our findings indicated that statistical learning of non-salient and task-irrelevant perceptual regularities could induce the generation of neural priors at the time of predictive stimulus presentation, possibly conveying sensory-specific information about the predicted consecutive stimulus.

Dorsal Anterior Cingulate Cortex Coordinates Contextual Mental Imagery for Single-Beat Manipulation during Rhythmic Sensorimotor Synchronization

Flexible pulse-by-pulse regulation of sensorimotor synchronization is crucial for voluntarily showing rhythmic behaviors synchronously with external cueing; however, the underpinning neurophysiological mechanisms remain unclear. We hypothesized that the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) plays a key role by coordinating both proactive and reactive motor outcomes based on contextual mental imagery. To test our hypothesis, a missing-oddball task in finger-tapping paradigms was conducted in 33 healthy young volunteers. The dynamic properties of the dACC were evaluated by event-related deep-brain activity (ER-DBA), supported by event-related potential (ERP) analysis and behavioral evaluation based on signal detection theory. We found that ER-DBA activation/deactivation reflected a strategic choice of motor control modality in accordance with mental imagery. Reverse ERP traces, as omission responses, confirmed that the imagery was contextual. We found that mental imagery was updated only by environmental changes via perceptual evidence and response-based abductive reasoning. Moreover, stable on-pulse tapping was achievable by maintaining proactive control while creating an imagery of syncopated rhythms from simple beat trains, whereas accuracy was degraded with frequent erroneous tapping for missing pulses. We conclude that the dACC voluntarily regulates rhythmic sensorimotor synchronization by utilizing contextual mental imagery based on experience and by creating novel rhythms.

Content-state dimensions characterize different types of neuronal markers of consciousness

Identifying the neuronal markers of consciousness is key to supporting the different scientific theories of consciousness. Neuronal markers of consciousness can be defined to reflect either the brain signatures underlying specific conscious content or those supporting different states of consciousness, two aspects traditionally studied separately. In this paper, we introduce a framework to characterize markers according to their dynamics in both the "state" and "content" dimensions. The 2D space is defined by the marker's capacity to distinguish the conscious states from non-conscious states (on the x-axis) and the content (e.g. perceived versus unperceived or different levels of cognitive processing on the y-axis). According to the sign of the x- and y-axis, markers are separated into four quadrants in terms of how they distinguish the state and content dimensions. We implement the framework using three types of electroencephalography markers: markers of connectivity, markers of complexity, and spectral summaries. The neuronal markers of state are represented by the level of consciousness in (i) healthy participants during a nap and (ii) patients with disorders of consciousness. On the other hand, the neuronal markers of content are represented by (i) the conscious content in healthy participants' perception task using a visual awareness paradigm and (ii) conscious processing of hierarchical regularities using an auditory local-global paradigm. In both cases, we see separate clusters of markers with correlated and anticorrelated dynamics, shedding light on the complex relationship between the state and content of consciousness and emphasizing the importance of considering them simultaneously. This work presents an innovative framework for studying consciousness by examining neuronal markers in a 2D space, providing a valuable resource for future research, with potential applications using diverse experimental paradigms, neural recording techniques, and modeling investigations.

Erroneous predictive coding across brain hierarchies in a non-human primate model of autism spectrum disorder

In autism spectrum disorder (ASD), atypical sensory experiences are often associated with irregularities in predictive coding, which proposes that the brain creates hierarchical sensory models via a bidirectional process of predictions and prediction errors. However, it remains unclear how these irregularities manifest across different functional hierarchies in the brain. To address this, we study a marmoset model of ASD induced by valproic acid (VPA) treatment. We record high-density electrocorticography (ECoG) during an auditory task with two layers of temporal control, and applied a quantitative model to quantify the integrity of predictive coding across two distinct hierarchies. Our results demonstrate a persistent pattern of sensory hypersensitivity and unstable predictions across two brain hierarchies in VPA-treated animals, and reveal the associated spatio-spectro-temporal neural signatures. Despite the regular occurrence of imprecise predictions in VPA-treated animals, we observe diverse configurations of underestimation or overestimation of sensory regularities within the hierarchies. Our results demonstrate the coexistence of the two primary Bayesian accounts of ASD: overly-precise sensory observations and weak prior beliefs, and offer a potential multi-layered biomarker for ASD, which could enhance our understanding of its diverse symptoms.

Investigating sensitivity to multi-domain prediction errors in chronic auditory phantom perception

The perception of a continuous phantom in a sensory domain in the absence of an external stimulus is explained as a maladaptive compensation of aberrant predictive coding, a proposed unified theory of brain functioning. If this were true, these changes would occur not only in the domain of the phantom percept but in other sensory domains as well. We confirm this hypothesis by using tinnitus (continuous phantom sound) as a model and probe the predictive coding mechanism using the established local-global oddball paradigm in both the auditory and visual domains. We observe that tinnitus patients are sensitive to changes in predictive coding not only in the auditory but also in the visual domain. We report changes in well-established components of event-related EEG such as the mismatch negativity. Furthermore, deviations in stimulus characteristics were correlated with the subjective tinnitus distress. These results provide an empirical confirmation that aberrant perceptions are a symptom of a higher-order systemic disorder transcending the domain of the percept.

Expectation Modulates Repetition Suppression at Late But Not Early Stages during Visual Word Recognition: Evidence from Event-related Potentials

Visual word recognition is commonly rapid and efficient, incorporating top-down predictive processing mechanisms. Neuroimaging studies with face stimuli suggest that repetition suppression (RS) reflects predictive processing at the neural level, as this effect is larger when repetitions are more frequent, that is, more expected. It remains unclear, however, at the temporal level whether and how RS and its modulation by expectation occur in visual word recognition. To address this gap, the present study aimed to investigate the presence and time course of these effects during visual word recognition using EEG. Thirty-six native Cantonese speakers were presented with pairs of Chinese written words and performed a nonlinguistic oddball task. The second word of a pair was either a repetition of the first or a different word (alternation). In repetition blocks, 75% of trials were repetitions and 25% were alternations, whereas the reverse was true in alternation blocks. Topographic analysis of variance of EEG at each time point showed robust RS effects in three time windows (141-227 msec, 242-445 msec, and 467-513 msec) reflecting facilitation of visual word recognition. Importantly, the modulation of RS by expectation was observed at the late rather than early intervals (334-387 msec, 465-550 msec, and 559-632 msec) and more than 100 msec after the first RS effects. In the predictive coding view of RS, only late repetition effects are modulated by expectation, whereas early RS effects may be mediated by lower-level predictions. Taken together, our findings provide the first EEG evidence revealing distinct temporal dynamics of RS effects and repetition probability on RS effects in visual processing of Chinese words.

Unsupervised Characterization of Prediction Error Markers in Unisensory and Multisensory Streams Reveal the Spatiotemporal Hierarchy of Cortical Information Processing

Elicited upon violation of regularity in stimulus presentation, mismatch negativity (MMN) reflects the brain's ability to perform automatic comparisons between consecutive stimuli and provides an electrophysiological index of sensory error detection whereas P300 is associated with cognitive processes such as updating of the working memory. To date, there has been extensive research on the roles of MMN and P300 individually, because of their potential to be used as clinical markers of consciousness and attention, respectively. Here, we intend to explore with an unsupervised and rigorous source estimation approach, the underlying cortical generators of MMN and P300, in the context of prediction error propagation along the hierarchies of brain information processing in healthy human participants. The existing methods of characterizing the two ERPs involve only approximate estimations of their amplitudes and latencies based on specific sensors of interest. Our objective is twofold: first, we introduce a novel data-driven unsupervised approach to compute latencies and amplitude of ERP components accurately on an individual-subject basis and reconfirm earlier findings. Second, we demonstrate that in multisensory environments, MMN generators seem to reflect a significant overlap of "modality-specific" and "modality-independent" information processing while P300 generators mark a shift toward completely "modality-independent" processing. Advancing earlier understanding that multisensory contexts speed up early sensory processing, our study reveals that temporal facilitation extends to even the later components of prediction error processing, using EEG experiments. Such knowledge can be of value to clinical research for characterizing the key developmental stages of lifespan aging, schizophrenia, and depression.

Dissecting Mismatch Negativity: Early and Late Subcomponents for Detecting Deviants in Local and Global Sequence Regularities

Mismatch negativity (MMN) is commonly recognized as a neural signal of prediction error evoked by deviants from the expected patterns of sensory input. Studies show that MMN diminishes when sequence patterns become more predictable over a longer timescale. This implies that MMN is composed of multiple subcomponents, each responding to different levels of temporal regularities. To probe the hypothesized subcomponents in MMN, we record human electroencephalography during an auditory local-global oddball paradigm where the tone-to-tone transition probability (local regularity) and the overall sequence probability (global regularity) are manipulated to control temporal predictabilities at two hierarchical levels. We find that the size of MMN is correlated with both probabilities and the spatiotemporal structure of MMN can be decomposed into two distinct subcomponents. Both subcomponents appear as negative waveforms, with one peaking early in the central-frontal area and the other late in a more frontal area. With a quantitative predictive coding model, we map the early and late subcomponents to the prediction errors that are tied to local and global regularities, respectively. Our study highlights the hierarchical complexity of MMN and offers an experimental and analytical platform for developing a multitiered neural marker applicable in clinical settings.

The maps of meaning consciousness theory

In simple terms, consciousness is constituted by multiple goals for action and the continuous adjudication of such goals to implement action, which is referred to as the maps of meaning (MoM) consciousness theory. The MoM theory triangulates through three parallel corollaries: action (behavior), mechanism (morphology/pathophysiology), and goals (teleology). (1) An organism's consciousness contains fluid, nested goals. These goals are not intentionality, but intersectionality, via the Darwinian byproduct of embodiment meeting the world, i.e., Darwinian inclusive fitness or randomization and then survival of the fittest. (2) These goals are formed via a gradual descent under inclusive fitness and are the abstraction of a "match" between the evolutionary environment and the organism. (3) Human consciousness implements the brain efficiency hypothesis, genetics, epigenetics, and experience-crystallized efficiencies, not necessitating best or objective but fitness, i.e., perceived efficiency based on one's adaptive environment. These efficiencies are objectively arbitrary but determine the operation and level of one's consciousness, termed as extreme thrownness. (4) Since inclusive fitness drives efficiencies in the physiologic mechanism, morphology, and behavior (action) and originates one's goals, embodiment is necessarily entangled to human consciousness as it is at the intersection of mechanism or action (both necessitating embodiment) occurring in the world that determines fitness. (5) Perception is the operant process of consciousness and is the de facto goal adjudication process of consciousness. Goal operationalization is fundamentally efficiency-based via one's unique neuronal mapping as a byproduct of genetics, epigenetics, and experience. (6) Perception involves information intake and information discrimination, equally underpinned by efficiencies of inclusive fitness via extreme thrownness. Perception is not a 'frame rate' but Bayesian priors of efficiency based on one's extreme thrownness. (7) Consciousness and human consciousness are modular (i.e., a scalar level of richness, which builds up like building blocks) and dimensionalized (i.e., cognitive abilities become possibilities as the emergent phenomena at various modularities such as the stratified factors in factor analysis). (8) The meta dimensions of human consciousness seemingly include intelligence quotient, personality (five-factor model), richness of perception intake, and richness of perception discrimination, among other potentialities. (9) Future consciousness research should utilize factor analysis to parse modularities and dimensions of human consciousness and animal models.

Somatosensory omissions reveal action-related predictive processing

The intricate relation between action and somatosensory perception has been studied extensively in the past decades. Generally, a forward model is thought to predict the somatosensory consequences of an action. These models propose that when an action is reliably coupled to a tactile stimulus, unexpected absence of the stimulus should elicit prediction error. Although such omission responses have been demonstrated in the auditory modality, it remains unknown whether this mechanism generalizes across modalities. This study therefore aimed to record action-induced somatosensory omission responses using EEG in humans. Self-paced button presses were coupled to somatosensory stimuli in 88% of trials, allowing a prediction, or in 50% of trials, not allowing a prediction. In the 88% condition, stimulus omission resulted in a neural response consisting of multiple components, as revealed by temporal principal component analysis. The oN1 response suggests similar sensory sources as stimulus-evoked activity, but an origin outside primary cortex. Subsequent oN2 and oP3 responses, as previously observed in the auditory domain, likely reflect modality-unspecific higher order processes. Together, findings straightforwardly demonstrate somatosensory predictions during action and provide evidence for a partially amodal mechanism of prediction error generation.

Cardio-audio synchronization elicits neural and cardiac surprise responses in human wakefulness and sleep

The human brain can encode auditory regularities with fixed sound-to-sound intervals and with sound onsets locked to cardiac inputs. Here, we investigated auditory and cardio-audio regularity encoding during sleep, when bodily and environmental stimulus processing may be altered. Using electroencephalography and electrocardiography in healthy volunteers (N = 26) during wakefulness and sleep, we measured the response to unexpected sound omissions within three regularity conditions: synchronous, where sound and heartbeat are temporally coupled, isochronous, with fixed sound-to-sound intervals, and a control condition without regularity. Cardio-audio regularity encoding manifested as a heartbeat deceleration upon omissions across vigilance states. The synchronous and isochronous sequences induced a modulation of the omission-evoked neural response in wakefulness and N2 sleep, the former accompanied by background oscillatory activity reorganization. The violation of cardio-audio and auditory regularity elicits cardiac and neural responses across vigilance states, laying the ground for similar investigations in altered consciousness states such as coma and anaesthesia.

Dynamic fading memory and expectancy effects in the monkey primary visual cortex

In order to investigate the involvement of the primary visual cortex (V1) in working memory (WM), parallel, multisite recordings of multi-unit activity were obtained from monkey V1 while the animals performed a delayed match-to-sample (DMS) task. During the delay period, V1 population firing rate vectors maintained a lingering trace of the sample stimulus that could be reactivated by intervening impulse stimuli that enhanced neuronal firing. This fading trace of the sample did not require active engagement of the monkeys in the DMS task and likely reflects the intrinsic dynamics of recurrent cortical networks in lower visual areas. This renders an active, attention-dependent involvement of V1 in the maintenance of WM contents unlikely. By contrast, population responses to the test stimulus depended on the probabilistic contingencies between sample and test stimuli. Responses to tests that matched expectations were reduced which agrees with concepts of predictive coding.

Altered hierarchical auditory predictive processing after lesions to the orbitofrontal cortex

Orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) is classically linked to inhibitory control, emotion regulation, and reward processing. Recent perspectives propose that the OFC also generates predictions about perceptual events, actions, and their outcomes. We tested the role of the OFC in detecting violations of prediction at two levels of abstraction (i.e., hierarchical predictive processing) by studying the event-related potentials (ERPs) of patients with focal OFC lesions (n = 12) and healthy controls (n = 14) while they detected deviant sequences of tones in a local-global paradigm. The structural regularities of the tones were controlled at two hierarchical levels by rules defined at a local (i.e., between tones within sequences) and at a global (i.e., between sequences) level. In OFC patients, ERPs elicited by standard tones were unaffected at both local and global levels compared to controls. However, patients showed an attenuated mismatch negativity (MMN) and P3a to local prediction violation, as well as a diminished MMN followed by a delayed P3a to the combined local and global level prediction violation. The subsequent P3b component to conditions involving violations of prediction at the level of global rules was preserved in the OFC group. Comparable effects were absent in patients with lesions restricted to the lateral PFC, which lends a degree of anatomical specificity to the altered predictive processing resulting from OFC lesion. Overall, the altered magnitudes and time courses of MMN/P3a responses after lesions to the OFC indicate that the neural correlates of detection of auditory regularity violation are impacted at two hierarchical levels of rule abstraction.

The empirical status of predictive coding and active inference

Research on predictive processing models has focused largely on two specific algorithmic theories: Predictive Coding for perception and Active Inference for decision-making. While these interconnected theories possess broad explanatory potential, they have only recently begun to receive direct empirical evaluation. Here, we review recent studies of Predictive Coding and Active Inference with a focus on evaluating the degree to which they are empirically supported. For Predictive Coding, we find that existing empirical evidence offers modest support. However, some positive results can also be explained by alternative feedforward (e.g., feature detection-based) models. For Active Inference, most empirical studies have focused on fitting these models to behavior as a means of identifying and explaining individual or group differences. While Active Inference models tend to explain behavioral data reasonably well, there has not been a focus on testing empirical validity of active inference theory per se, which would require formal comparison to other models (e.g., non-Bayesian or model-free reinforcement learning models). This review suggests that, while promising, a number of specific research directions are still necessary to evaluate the empirical adequacy and explanatory power of these algorithms.

Synthetic surprise as the foundation of the psychedelic experience

Psychedelic agents, such as LSD and psilocybin, induce marked alterations in consciousness via activation of the 5-HT2A receptor (5-HT2ARs). We hypothesize that psychedelics enforce a state of synthetic surprise through the biased activation of the 5-HTRs system. This idea is informed by recent insights into the role of 5-HT in signaling surprise. The effects on consciousness, explained by the cognitive penetrability of perception, can be described within the predictive coding framework where surprise corresponds to prediction error, the mismatch between predictions and actual sensory input. Crucially, the precision afforded to the prediction error determines its effect on priors, enabling a dynamic interaction between top-down expectations and incoming sensory data. By integrating recent findings on predictive coding circuitry and 5-HT2ARs transcriptomic data, we propose a biological implementation with emphasis on the role of inhibitory interneurons. Implications arise for the clinical use of psychedelics, which may rely primarily on their inherent capacity to induce surprise in order to disrupt maladaptive patterns.

Auditory prediction and prediction error responses evoked through a novel cascade roving paradigm: a human ECoG study

Auditory sensory processing is assumed to occur in a hierarchical structure including the primary auditory cortex (A1), superior temporal gyrus, and frontal areas. These areas are postulated to generate predictions for incoming stimuli, creating an internal model of the surrounding environment. Previous studies on mismatch negativity have indicated the involvement of the superior temporal gyrus in this processing, whereas reports have been mixed regarding the contribution of the frontal cortex. We designed a novel auditory paradigm, the "cascade roving" paradigm, which incorporated complex structures (cascade sequences) into a roving paradigm. We analyzed electrocorticography data from six patients with refractory epilepsy who passively listened to this novel auditory paradigm and detected responses to deviants mainly in the superior temporal gyrus and inferior frontal gyrus. Notably, the inferior frontal gyrus exhibited broader distribution and sustained duration of deviant-elicited responses, seemingly differing in spatio-temporal characteristics from the prediction error responses observed in the superior temporal gyrus, compared with conventional oddball paradigms performed on the same participants. Moreover, we observed that the deviant responses were enhanced through stimulus repetition in the high-gamma range mainly in the superior temporal gyrus. These features of the novel paradigm may aid in our understanding of auditory predictive coding.

A model of time-varying music engagement

The current paper offers a model of time-varying music engagement, defined as changes in curiosity, attention and positive valence, as music unfolds over time. First, we present research (including new data) showing that listeners tend to allocate attention to music in a manner that is guided by both features of the music and listeners' individual differences. Next, we review relevant predictive processing literature before using this body of work to inform our model. In brief, we propose that music engagement, over the course of an extended listening episode, may constitute several cycles of curiosity, attention and positive valence that are interspersed with moments of mind-wandering. Further, we suggest that refocusing on music after an episode of mind-wandering can be due to triggers in the music or, conversely, mental action that occurs when the listener realizes they are mind-wandering. Finally, we argue that factors that modulate both overall levels of music engagement and how it changes over time include music complexity, listener background and the listening context. Our paper highlights how music can be used to provide insights into the temporal dynamics of attention and into how curiosity might emerge in everyday contexts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Art, aesthetics and predictive processing: theoretical and empirical perspectives'.

Temporal features of size constancy for perception and action in a real-world setting: A combined EEG-kinematics study

A stable representation of object size, in spite of continuous variations in retinal input due to changes in viewing distance, is critical for perceiving and acting in a real 3D world. In fact, our perceptual and visuo-motor systems exhibit size and grip constancies in order to compensate for the natural shrinkage of the retinal image with increased distance. The neural basis of this size-distance scaling remains largely unknown, although multiple lines of evidence suggest that size-constancy operations might take place remarkably early, already at the level of the primary visual cortex. In this study, we examined for the first time the temporal dynamics of size constancy during perception and action by using a combined measurement of event-related potentials (ERPs) and kinematics. Participants were asked to maintain their gaze steadily on a fixation point and perform either a manual estimation or a grasping task towards disks of different sizes placed at different distances. Importantly, the physical size of the target was scaled with distance to yield a constant retinal angle. Meanwhile, we recorded EEG data from 64 scalp electrodes and hand movements with a motion capture system. We focused on the first positive-going visual evoked component peaking at approximately 90 ms after stimulus onset. We found earlier latencies and greater amplitudes in response to bigger than smaller disks of matched retinal size, regardless of the task. In line with the ERP results, manual estimates and peak grip apertures were larger for the bigger targets. We also found task-related differences at later stages of processing from a cluster of central electrodes, whereby the mean amplitude of the P2 component was greater for manual estimation than grasping. Taken together, these findings provide novel evidence that size constancy for real objects at real distances occurs at the earliest cortical stages and that early visual processing does not change as a function of task demands.

Development, Insults and Predisposing Factors of the Brain's Predictive Coding System to Chronic Perceptual Disorders-A Life-Course Examination

The predictive coding theory is currently widely accepted as the theoretical basis of perception and chronic perceptual disorders are explained as the maladaptive compensation of the brain to a prediction error. Although this gives us a general framework to work with, it is still not clear who may be more susceptible and/or vulnerable to aberrations in this system. In this paper, we study changes in predictive coding through the lens of tinnitus and pain. We take a step back to understand how the predictive coding system develops from infancy, what are the different neural and bio markers that characterise this system in the acute, transition and chronic phases and what may be the factors that pose a risk to the aberration of this system. Through this paper, we aim to identify people who may be at a higher risk of developing chronic perceptual disorders as a reflection of aberrant predictive coding, thereby giving future studies more facets to incorporate in their investigation of early markers of tinnitus, pain and other disorders of predictive coding. We therefore view this paper to encourage the thinking behind the development of preclinical biomarkers to maladaptive predictive coding.

Multiple Concurrent Predictions Inform Prediction Error in the Human Auditory Pathway

The key assumption of the predictive coding framework is that internal representations are used to generate predictions on how the sensory input will look like in the immediate future. These predictions are tested against the actual input by the so-called prediction error units, which encode the residuals of the predictions. What happens to prediction errors, however, if predictions drawn by different stages of the sensory hierarchy contradict each other? To answer this question, we conducted two fMRI experiments while female and male human participants listened to sequences of sounds: pure tones in the first experiment and frequency-modulated sweeps in the second experiment. In both experiments, we used repetition to induce predictions based on stimulus statistics (stats-informed predictions) and abstract rules disclosed in the task instructions to induce an orthogonal set of (task-informed) predictions. We tested three alternative scenarios: neural responses in the auditory sensory pathway encode prediction error with respect to (1) the stats-informed predictions, (2) the task-informed predictions, or (3) a combination of both. Results showed that neural populations in all recorded regions (bilateral inferior colliculus, medial geniculate body, and primary and secondary auditory cortices) encode prediction error with respect to a combination of the two orthogonal sets of predictions. The findings suggest that predictive coding exploits the non-linear architecture of the auditory pathway for the transmission of predictions. Such non-linear transmission of predictions might be crucial for the predictive coding of complex auditory signals like speech.Significance Statement Sensory systems exploit our subjective expectations to make sense of an overwhelming influx of sensory signals. It is still unclear how expectations at each stage of the processing pipeline are used to predict the representations at the other stages. The current view is that this transmission is hierarchical and linear. Here we measured fMRI responses in auditory cortex, sensory thalamus, and midbrain while we induced two sets of mutually inconsistent expectations on the sensory input, each putatively encoded at a different stage. We show that responses at all stages are concurrently shaped by both sets of expectations. The results challenge the hypothesis that expectations are transmitted linearly and provide for a normative explanation of the non-linear physiology of the corticofugal sensory system.

Intact Mismatch Negativity Responses in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis and First-Episode Psychosis: Evidence From Source-Reconstructed Event-Related Fields and Time-Frequency Data

BACKGROUND

This study examined whether mismatch negativity (MMN) responses are impaired in participants at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and whether MMN deficits predict clinical outcomes in CHR-Ps.

METHODS

Magnetoencephalography data were collected during a duration-deviant MMN paradigm for a group of 116 CHR-P participants, 33 FEP patients (15 antipsychotic-naïve), clinical high risk negative group (n = 38) with substance abuse and affective disorder, and 49 healthy control participants. Analysis of group differences of source-reconstructed event-related fields as well as time-frequency and intertrial phase coherence focused on the bilateral Heschl's gyri and bilateral superior temporal gyri.

RESULTS

Significant magnetic MMN responses were found across participants in the bilateral Heschl's gyri and bilateral superior temporal gyri. However, MMN amplitude as well as time-frequency and intertrial phase coherence responses were intact in CHR-P participants and FEP patients compared with healthy control participants. Furthermore, MMN deficits were not related to persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms or transitions to psychosis in CHR-P participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that magnetic MMN responses in magnetoencephalography data are not impaired in early-stage psychosis and may not predict clinical outcomes in CHR-P participants.

Strength of predicted information content in the brain biases decision behavior

Prediction-for-perception theories suggest that the brain predicts incoming stimuli to facilitate their categorization.1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17 However, it remains unknown what the information contents of these predictions are, which hinders mechanistic explanations. This is because typical approaches cast predictions as an underconstrained contrast between two categories18,19,20,21,22,23,24-e.g., faces versus cars, which could lead to predictions of features specific to faces or cars, or features from both categories. Here, to pinpoint the information contents of predictions and thus their mechanistic processing in the brain, we identified the features that enable two different categorical perceptions of the same stimuli. We then trained multivariate classifiers to discern, from dynamic MEG brain responses, the features tied to each perception. With an auditory cueing design, we reveal where, when, and how the brain reactivates visual category features (versus the typical category contrast) before the stimulus is shown. We demonstrate that the predictions of category features have a more direct influence (bias) on subsequent decision behavior in participants than the typical category contrast. Specifically, these predictions are more precisely localized in the brain (lateralized), are more specifically driven by the auditory cues, and their reactivation strength before a stimulus presentation exerts a greater bias on how the individual participant later categorizes this stimulus. By characterizing the specific information contents that the brain predicts and then processes, our findings provide new insights into the brain's mechanisms of prediction for perception.

Seeking the neural representation of statistical properties in print during implicit processing of visual words

Statistical learning (SL) plays a key role in literacy acquisition. Studies have increasingly revealed the influence of distributional statistical properties of words on visual word processing, including the effects of word frequency (lexical level) and mappings between orthography, phonology, and semantics (sub-lexical level). However, there has been scant evidence to directly confirm that the statistical properties contained in print can be directly characterized by neural activities. Using time-resolved representational similarity analysis (RSA), the present study examined neural representations of different types of statistical properties in visual word processing. From the perspective of predictive coding, an equal probability sequence with low built-in prediction precision and three oddball sequences with high built-in prediction precision were designed with consistent and three types of inconsistent (orthographically inconsistent, orthography-to-phonology inconsistent, and orthography-to-semantics inconsistent) Chinese characters as visual stimuli. In the three oddball sequences, consistent characters were set as the standard stimuli (probability of occurrence p = 0.75) and three types of inconsistent characters were set as deviant stimuli (p = 0.25), respectively. In the equal probability sequence, the same consistent and inconsistent characters were presented randomly with identical occurrence probability (p = 0.25). Significant neural representation activities of word frequency were observed in the equal probability sequence. By contrast, neural representations of sub-lexical statistics only emerged in oddball sequences where short-term predictions were shaped. These findings reveal that the statistical properties learned from long-term print environment continues to play a role in current word processing mechanisms and these mechanisms can be modulated by short-term predictions.

Detection of regularities in auditory sequences before and at term-age in human neonates

During the last trimester of gestation, fetuses and preterm neonates begin to respond to sensory stimulation and to discover the structure of their environment. Yet, neuronal migration is still ongoing. This late migration notably concerns the supra-granular layers neurons, which are believed to play a critical role in encoding predictions and detecting regularities. In order to gain a deeper understanding of how the brain processes and perceives regularities during this stage of development, we conducted a study in which we recorded event-related potentials (ERP) in 31-wGA preterm and full-term neonates exposed to alternating auditory sequences (e.g. "ba ga ba ga ba"), when the regularity of these sequences was violated by a repetition (e.g., ``ba ga ba ga ga''). We compared the ERPs in this case to those obtained when violating a simple repetition pattern ("ga ga ga ga ga" vs. "ga ga ga ga ba"). Our results indicated that both preterm and full-term neonates were able to detect violations of regularity in both types of sequences, indicating that as early as 31 weeks gestational age, human neonates are sensitive to the conditional statistics between successive auditory elements. Full-term neonates showed an early and similar mismatch response (MMR) in the repetition and alternating sequences. In contrast, 31-wGA neonates exhibited a two-component MMR. The first component which was only observed for simple sequences with repetition, corresponded to sensory adaptation. It was followed much later by a deviance-detection component that was observed for both alternation and repetition sequences. This pattern confirms that MMRs detected at the scalp may correspond to a dual cortical process and shows that deviance detection computed by higher-level regions accelerates dramatically with brain maturation during the last weeks of gestation to become indistinguishable from bottom-up sensory adaptation at term.

A multimodal cortical network of sensory expectation violation revealed by fMRI

The brain is subjected to multi-modal sensory information in an environment governed by statistical dependencies. Mismatch responses (MMRs), classically recorded with EEG, have provided valuable insights into the brain's processing of regularities and the generation of corresponding sensory predictions. Only few studies allow for comparisons of MMRs across multiple modalities in a simultaneous sensory stream and their corresponding cross-modal context sensitivity remains unknown. Here, we used a tri-modal version of the roving stimulus paradigm in fMRI to elicit MMRs in the auditory, somatosensory and visual modality. Participants (N = 29) were simultaneously presented with sequences of low and high intensity stimuli in each of the three senses while actively observing the tri-modal input stream and occasionally reporting the intensity of the previous stimulus in a prompted modality. The sequences were based on a probabilistic model, defining transition probabilities such that, for each modality, stimuli were more likely to repeat (p = .825) than change (p = .175) and stimulus intensities were equiprobable (p = .5). Moreover, each transition was conditional on the configuration of the other two modalities comprising global (cross-modal) predictive properties of the sequences. We identified a shared mismatch network of modality general inferior frontal and temporo-parietal areas as well as sensory areas, where the connectivity (psychophysiological interaction) between these regions was modulated during mismatch processing. Further, we found deviant responses within the network to be modulated by local stimulus repetition, which suggests highly comparable processing of expectation violation across modalities. Moreover, hierarchically higher regions of the mismatch network in the temporo-parietal area around the intraparietal sulcus were identified to signal cross-modal expectation violation. With the consistency of MMRs across audition, somatosensation and vision, our study provides insights into a shared cortical network of uni- and multi-modal expectation violation in response to sequence regularities.

Time-resolved dynamic computational modeling of human EEG recordings reveals gradients of generative mechanisms for the MMN response

Despite attempts to unify the different theoretical accounts of the mismatch negativity (MMN), there is still an ongoing debate on the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying this complex brain response. On one hand, neuronal adaptation to recurrent stimuli is able to explain many of the observed properties of the MMN, such as its sensitivity to controlled experimental parameters. On the other hand, several modeling studies reported evidence in favor of Bayesian learning models for explaining the trial-to-trial dynamics of the human MMN. However, direct comparisons of these two main hypotheses are scarce, and previous modeling studies suffered from methodological limitations. Based on reports indicating spatial and temporal dissociation of physiological mechanisms within the timecourse of mismatch responses in animals, we hypothesized that different computational models would best fit different temporal phases of the human MMN. Using electroencephalographic data from two independent studies of a simple auditory oddball task (n = 82), we compared adaptation and Bayesian learning models' ability to explain the sequential dynamics of auditory deviance detection in a time-resolved fashion. We first ran simulations to evaluate the capacity of our design to dissociate the tested models and found that they were sufficiently distinguishable above a certain level of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In subjects with a sufficient SNR, our time-resolved approach revealed a temporal dissociation between the two model families, with high evidence for adaptation during the early MMN window (from 90 to 150-190 ms post-stimulus depending on the dataset) and for Bayesian learning later in time (170-180 ms or 200-220ms). In addition, Bayesian model averaging of fixed-parameter models within the adaptation family revealed a gradient of adaptation rates, resembling the anatomical gradient in the auditory cortical hierarchy reported in animal studies.

Long-term, multi-event surprise correlates with enhanced autobiographical memory

Neurobiological and psychological models of learning emphasize the importance of prediction errors (surprises) for memory formation. This relationship has been shown for individual momentary surprising events; however, it is less clear whether surprise that unfolds across multiple events and timescales is also linked with better memory of those events. We asked basketball fans about their most positive and negative autobiographical memories of individual plays, games and seasons, allowing surprise measurements spanning seconds, hours and months. We used advanced analytics on National Basketball Association play-by-play data and betting odds spanning 17 seasons, more than 22,000 games and more than 5.6 million plays to compute and align the estimated surprise value of each memory. We found that surprising events were associated with better recall of positive memories on the scale of seconds and months and negative memories across all three timescales. Game and season memories could not be explained by surprise at shorter timescales, suggesting that long-term, multi-event surprise correlates with memory. These results expand notions of surprise in models of learning and reinforce its relevance in real-world domains.

Predictions about prosody facilitate lexical access: Evidence from P50/N100 and MMN components

Research into the neural foundation of perception asserts a model where top-down predictions modulate the bottom-up processing of sensory input. Despite becoming increasingly influential in cognitive neuroscience, the precise account of this predictive coding framework remains debated. In this study, we aim to contribute to this debate by investigating how predictions about prosody facilitate speech perception, and to shed light especially on lexical access influenced by simultaneous predictions in different domains, inter alia, prosodic and semantic. Using a passive auditory oddball paradigm, we examined neural responses to prosodic changes, leading to a semantic change as in Dutch nouns canon ['kaːnɔn] 'canon' vs kanon [kaː'nɔn] 'cannon', and used acoustically identical pseudowords as controls. Results from twenty-eight native speakers of Dutch (age range 18-32 years) indicated an enhanced P50/N100 complex to prosodic change in pseudowords as well as an MMN response to both words and pseudowords. The enhanced P50/N100 response to pseudowords is claimed to indicate that all relevant auditory information is still processed by the brain, whereas the reduced response to words might reflect the suppression of information that has already been encoded. The MMN response to pseudowords and words, on the other hand, is best justified by the unification of previously established prosodic representations with sensory and semantic input respectively. This pattern of results is in line with the predictive coding framework acting on multiple levels and is of crucial importance to indicate that predictions about linguistic prosodic information are utilized by the brain as early as 50 ms.

Aberrant Hierarchical Prediction Errors Are Associated With Transition to Psychosis: A Computational Single-Trial Analysis of the Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND

Mismatch negativity reductions are among the most reliable biomarkers for schizophrenia and have been associated with increased risk for conversion to psychosis in individuals who are at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Here, we adopted a computational approach to develop a mechanistic model of mismatch negativity reductions in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia.

METHODS

Electroencephalography was recorded in 38 CHR-P individuals (15 converters), 19 patients early in the course of schizophrenia (≤5 years), and 44 healthy control participants during three different auditory oddball mismatch negativity paradigms including 10% duration, frequency, or double deviants, respectively. We modeled sensory learning with the hierarchical Gaussian filter and extracted precision-weighted prediction error trajectories from the model to assess how the expression of hierarchical prediction errors modulated electroencephalography amplitudes over sensor space and time.

RESULTS

Both low-level sensory and high-level volatility precision-weighted prediction errors were altered in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia compared with healthy control participants. Moreover, low-level precision-weighted prediction errors were significantly different in CHR-P individuals who later converted to psychosis compared with nonconverters.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results implicate altered processing of hierarchical prediction errors as a computational mechanism in early psychosis consistent with predictive coding accounts of psychosis. This computational model seems to capture pathophysiological mechanisms that are relevant to early psychosis and the risk for future psychosis in CHR-P individuals and may serve as predictive biomarkers and mechanistic targets for the development of novel treatments.

Brainstem fMRI signaling of surprise across different types of deviant stimuli

Detection of deviant stimuli is crucial to orient and adapt our behavior. Previous work shows that deviant stimuli elicit phasic activation of the locus coeruleus (LC), which releases noradrenaline and controls central arousal. However, it is unclear whether the detection of behaviorally relevant deviant stimuli selectively triggers LC responses or other neuromodulatory systems (dopamine, serotonin, and acetylcholine). We combine human functional MRI (fMRI) recordings optimized for brainstem imaging with pupillometry to perform a mapping of deviant-related responses in subcortical structures. Participants have to detect deviant items in a "local-global" paradigm that distinguishes between deviance based on the stimulus probability and the sequence structure. fMRI responses to deviant stimuli are distributed in many cortical areas. Both types of deviance elicit responses in the pupil, LC, and other neuromodulatory systems. Our results reveal that the detection of task-relevant deviant items recruits the same multiple subcortical systems across computationally different types of deviance.

Pupil dilation response elicited by violations of auditory regularities is a promising but challenging approach to probe consciousness at the bedside

Pupil dilation response (PDR) has been proposed as a physiological marker of conscious access to a stimulus or its attributes, such as novelty. In a previous study on healthy volunteers, we adapted the auditory "local global" paradigm and showed that violations of global regularity elicited a PDR. Notably without instructions, this global effect was present only in participants who could consciously report violations of global regularities. In the present study, we used a similar approach in 24 non-communicating patients affected with a Disorder of Consciousness (DoC) and compared PDR to ERPs regarding diagnostic and prognostic performance. At the group level, global effect could not be detected in DoC patients. At the individual level, the only patient with a PDR global effect was in a MCS and recovered consciousness at 6 months. Contrasting the most regular trials to the most irregular ones improved PDR's diagnostic and prognostic power in DoC patients. Pupillometry is a promising tool but requires several methodological improvements to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and make it more robust for probing consciousness and cognition in DoC patients.

Spectral and phase-coherence correlates of impaired auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) in schizophrenia: A MEG study

BACKGROUND

Reduced auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) is robustly impaired in schizophrenia. However, mechanisms underlying dysfunctional MMN generation remain incompletely understood. This study aimed to examine the role of evoked spectral power and phase-coherence towards deviance detection and its impairments in schizophrenia.

METHODS

Magnetoencephalography data was collected in 16 male schizophrenia patients and 16 male control participants during an auditory MMN paradigm. Analyses of event-related fields (ERF), spectral power and inter-trial phase-coherence (ITPC) focused on Heschl's gyrus, superior temporal gyrus, inferior/medial frontal gyrus and thalamus.

RESULTS

MMNm ERF amplitudes were reduced in patients in temporal, frontal and subcortical regions, accompanied by decreased theta-band responses, as well as by a diminished gamma-band response in auditory cortex. At theta/alpha frequencies, ITPC to deviant tones was reduced in patients in frontal cortex and thalamus. Patients were also characterized by aberrant responses to standard tones as indexed by reduced theta-/alpha-band power and ITPC in temporal and frontal regions. Moreover, stimulus-specific adaptation was decreased at theta/alpha frequencies in left temporal regions, which correlated with reduced MMNm spectral power and ERF amplitude. Finally, phase-reset of alpha-oscillations after deviant tones in left thalamus was impaired, which correlated with impaired MMNm generation in auditory cortex. Importantly, both non-rhythmic and rhythmic components of spectral activity contributed to the MMNm response.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that deficits in theta-/alpha- and gamma-band activity in cortical and subcortical regions as well as impaired spectral responses to standard sounds could constitute potential mechanisms for dysfunctional MMN generation in schizophrenia, providing a novel perspective towards MMN deficits in the disorder.

Brain-imaging evidence for compression of binary sound sequences in human memory

According to the language-of-thought hypothesis, regular sequences are compressed in human memory using recursive loops akin to a mental program that predicts future items. We tested this theory by probing memory for 16-item sequences made of two sounds. We recorded brain activity with functional MRI and magneto-encephalography (MEG) while participants listened to a hierarchy of sequences of variable complexity, whose minimal description required transition probabilities, chunking, or nested structures. Occasional deviant sounds probed the participants' knowledge of the sequence. We predicted that task difficulty and brain activity would be proportional to the complexity derived from the minimal description length in our formal language. Furthermore, activity should increase with complexity for learned sequences, and decrease with complexity for deviants. These predictions were upheld in both fMRI and MEG, indicating that sequence predictions are highly dependent on sequence structure and become weaker and delayed as complexity increases. The proposed language recruited bilateral superior temporal, precentral, anterior intraparietal, and cerebellar cortices. These regions overlapped extensively with a localizer for mathematical calculation, and much less with spoken or written language processing. We propose that these areas collectively encode regular sequences as repetitions with variations and their recursive composition into nested structures.

Deviants violating higher-order auditory regularities can become predictive and facilitate behaviour

The human auditory system is believed to represent regularities inherent in auditory information in internal models. Sounds not matching the standard regularity (deviants) elicit prediction error, alerting the system to information not explainable within currently active models. Here, we examine the widely neglected characteristic of deviants bearing predictive information themselves. In a modified version of the oddball paradigm, using higher-order regularities, we set up different expectations regarding the sound following a deviant. Higher-order regularities were defined by the relation of pitch within tone pairs (rather than absolute pitch of individual tones). In a deviant detection task participants listened to oddball sequences including two deviant types following diametrically opposed rules: one occurred mostly in succession (high repetition probability) and the other mostly in isolation (low repetition probability). Participants in Experiment 1 were not informed (naïve), whereas in Experiment 2 they were made aware of the repetition rules. Response times significantly decreased from first to second deviant when repetition probability was high-albeit more in the presence of explicit rule knowledge. There was no evidence of a facilitation effect when repetition probability was low. Significantly more false alarms occurred in response to standards following high compared with low repetition probability deviants, but only in participants aware of the repetition rules. These findings provide evidence that not only deviants violating lower- but also higher-order regularities can inform predictions about auditory events. More generally, they confirm the utility of this new paradigm to gather further insights into the predictive properties of the human brain.

Auditory learning of recurrent tone sequences is present in the newborn's brain

The seemingly effortless ability of our auditory system to rapidly detect new events in a dynamic environment is crucial for survival. Whether the underlying brain processes are innate is unknown. To answer this question, electroencephalography was recorded while regularly patterned (REG) versus random (RAND) tone sequences were presented to sleeping neonates. Regular relative to random sequences elicited differential neural responses after only a single repetition of the pattern indicating the existence of an innate capacity of the auditory system to detect auditory sequential regularities. We show that the newborn auditory system accumulates evidence only somewhat longer than the minimum amount determined by the ideal Bayesian observer model (the prediction from a variable-order Markov chain model) before detecting a repeating pattern. Thus, newborns can quickly form representations for regular features of the sound input, preparing the way for learning the contingencies of the environment.

Subanaesthetic doses of ketamine reduce but do not eliminate predictive coding responses: implications for mechanisms of sensory disconnection

BACKGROUND

Sensory disconnection is a key feature of sleep and anaesthesia. We have proposed that predictive coding offers a framework for understanding the mechanisms of disconnection. Low doses of ketamine that do not induce disconnection should thus diminish predictive coding, but not abolish it.

METHODS

Ketamine was administered to 14 participants up to a blood concentration of 0.3 μg ml-1 Participants were played a series of tones comprising a roving oddball sequence while electroencephalography evoked response potentials were recorded. We fit a Bayesian observer model to the tone sequence, correlating neural activity with the prediction errors generated by the model using linear mixed effects models and cluster-based statistics.

RESULTS

Ketamine modulated prediction errors associated with the transition of one tone to the next (transitional probability), but not how often tones changed (environmental volatility), of the system. Transitional probability was reduced when blood concentrations of ketamine were increased to 0.2-0.3 μg ml-1 (96-208 ms, P=0.003); however, correlates of prediction error were still evident in the electroencephalogram (124-168 ms, P=0.003). Prediction errors related to environmental volatility were associated with electroencephalographic activity before ketamine (224-284 ms, P=0.028) and during 0.2-0.3 μg ml-1 ketamine (108-248 ms, P=0.003). At this subanaesthetic dose, ketamine did not exert a dose-dependent modulation of prediction error.

CONCLUSIONS

Subanaesthetic dosing of ketamine reduced correlates of predictive coding but did not eliminate them. Future studies should evaluate whether states of sensory disconnection, including anaesthetic doses of ketamine, are associated with a complete absence of predictive coding responses.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03284307.

Crossmodal visual predictions elicit spatially specific early visual cortex activity but later than real visual stimuli

Previous studies have indicated that crossmodal visual predictions are instrumental in controlling early visual cortex activity. The exact time course and spatial precision of such crossmodal top-down influences on the visual cortex have been unknown. In the present study, participants were exposed to audiovisual combinations comprising one of two sounds and a Gabor patch either in the top left or in the bottom right visual field. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded to these frequent crossmodal combinations (standards) as well as to trials in which the visual stimulus was omitted (omissions) or the visual and auditory stimuli were recombined (deviants). Standards and deviants elicited an ERP between 50 and 100 ms of opposite polarity known as the C1 effect commonly associated with retinotopic processing in early visual cortex. By contrast, a C1 effect was not observed in omission trials. Spatially specific omission and mismatch effects (deviants minus standards) started only later with a latency of 230 ms and 170 ms, respectively. These results suggest that crossmodal visual predictions control visual cortex activity in a spatially specific manner. However, visual predictions do not modulate visual cortex activity with the same timing as visual stimulation activates these areas but rather seem to involve distinct neural mechanisms. This article is part of the theme issue 'Decision and control processes in multisensory perception'.

Propofol-mediated loss of consciousness disrupts predictive routing and local field phase modulation of neural activity

Predictive coding is a fundamental function of the cortex. The predictive routing model proposes a neurophysiological implementation for predictive coding. Predictions are fed back from deep-layer cortex via alpha/beta (8-30Hz) oscillations. They inhibit the gamma (40-100Hz) and spiking that feed sensory inputs forward. Unpredicted inputs arrive in circuits unprepared by alpha/beta, resulting in enhanced gamma and spiking. To test the predictive routing model and its role in consciousness, we collected data from intracranial recordings of macaque monkeys during passive presentation of auditory oddballs (e.g., AAAAB) before and after propofol-mediated loss of consciousness (LOC). In line with the predictive routing model, alpha/beta oscillations in the awake state served to inhibit the processing of predictable stimuli. Propofol-mediated LOC eliminated alpha/beta modulation by a predictable stimulus in sensory cortex and alpha/beta coherence between sensory and frontal areas. As a result, oddball stimuli evoked enhanced gamma power, late (> 200 ms from stimulus onset) period spiking, and superficial layer sinks in sensory cortex. Therefore, auditory cortex was in a disinhibited state during propofol-mediated LOC. However, despite these enhanced feedforward responses in auditory cortex, there was a loss of differential spiking to oddballs in higher order cortex. This may be a consequence of a loss of within-area and inter-area spike-field coupling in the alpha/beta and gamma frequency bands. These results provide strong constraints for current theories of consciousness.

Significance statement

Neurophysiology studies have found alpha/beta oscillations (8-30Hz), gamma oscillations (40-100Hz), and spiking activity during cognition. Alpha/beta power has an inverse relationship with gamma power/spiking. This inverse relationship suggests that gamma/spiking are under the inhibitory control of alpha/beta. The predictive routing model hypothesizes that alpha/beta oscillations selectively inhibit (and thereby control) cortical activity that is predictable. We tested whether this inhibitory control is a signature of consciousness. We used multi-area neurophysiology recordings in monkeys presented with tone sequences that varied in predictability. We recorded brain activity as the anesthetic propofol was administered to manipulate consciousness. Compared to conscious processing, propofol-mediated unconsciousness disrupted alpha/beta inhibitory control during predictive processing. This led to a disinhibition of gamma/spiking, consistent with the predictive routing model.

Longitudinal Evidence for Attenuated Local-Global Deviance Detection as a Precursor of Working Memory Decline

From the perspective of predictive coding, normal aging is accompanied by decreased weighting of sensory inputs and increased reliance on predictions, resulting in the attenuation of prediction errors in older age. Recent electroencephalography (EEG) research further revealed that the age-related shift from sensorium to predictions is hierarchy-selective, as older brains show little reduction in lower-level but significant suppression in higher-level prediction errors. Moreover, the disrupted propagation of prediction errors from the lower-level to the higher-level seems to be linked to deficient maintenance of information in working memory. However, it is unclear whether the hierarchical predictive processing continues to decline with advancing age as working memory. Here, we longitudinally followed a sample of 78 participants from three age groups (including seniors, adults, and adolescents) over three years' time. Seniors exhibited largely preserved local processing [consisting of comparable mismatch negativity (MMN), delayed P3a, and comparable reorienting negativity (RON)] but significantly compromised global processing (consisting of suppressed frontocentral negativity and suppressed P3b) in the auditory local-global paradigm. These electrophysiological responses did not change with the passing of time, unlike working memory which deteriorated with advancing age. Correlation analysis further showed that these electrophysiological responses signaling prediction errors are indicative of concurrent working memory. Moreover, there was a correlation between earlier predictive processing and later working memory but not between earlier working memory and later predictive processing. The temporal asymmetry suggested that the hierarchy-selective attenuation of prediction errors is likely a precursor of working memory decline.