Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy

Impact of increased diagnosis of early HIV infection and immediate antiretroviral treatment initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands

The number of new HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands has been decreasing, but additional efforts are required to bring it further down. This study aims to assess the impact of increased diagnosis of early HIV infection combined with immediate antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation on reducing HIV transmission among MSM. We developed an agent-based model calibrated to HIV surveillance and sexual behavior data for MSM in the Netherlands in 2017-2022. Starting in 2023, we simulated a 10-year intervention that accelerates HIV diagnosis during the first 3 or 6 months after HIV acquisition across five levels of increased diagnosis rates (2, 4, 8, 16, and 32-fold), followed by immediate ART initiation. The upper limit of the intervention's impact over 10 years is projected to result in the cumulative 298 (95-th QI: 162-451) HIV infections averted. A 32-fold increase in the diagnosis rate within 3 months after HIV acquisition (corresponding to 100% of all new HIV infections diagnosed within 3 months of acquisition) results in 269 (95-th QI: 147-400) infections averted, approaching closely maximum impact. By extending the scope of the intervention to individuals who acquired HIV infection within the previous 6 months, a smaller 8-fold increase in the diagnosis rate (corresponding to 97% of new HIV infections diagnosed within 6 months of acquisition) approaches closely the maximum impact of the intervention by averting 256 (95-th QI: 122-411) HIV infections. Our sensitivity analyses showed, that in an epidemiological context similar to the modern-day the Netherlands, immediate initiation of ART accompanying accelerated diagnosis of individuals with early HIV infection does not significantly affect HIV transmission dynamics. Accelerating early HIV diagnosis through increased awareness, screening, and testing can further reduce transmission among MSM. Meeting this goal necessitates a stakeholder needs assessment.

Can HIV epidemics among MSM be eliminated through participation in preexposure prophylaxis rollouts?

OBJECTIVE

To study the conditions under which preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage can eliminate HIV among MSM in the Paris region.

DESIGN

Mathematical modeling.

METHODS

We propose an innovative approach, combining a transmission model with a game-theoretic model, for decision-making about PrEP use. Individuals at high risk of HIV infection decide to use PrEP, depending on their perceived risk of infection and the relative cost of using PrEP versus antiretroviral treatment (ART), which includes monetary and/or nonmonetary aspects, such as price and access model of PrEP, consequences of being infected and lifelong ART.

RESULTS

If individuals assessed correctly their infection risk, and the cost of using PrEP were sufficiently low, then the PrEP rollout could lead to elimination. Specifically, assuming 86% PrEP effectiveness, as observed in two clinical trials, a minimum PrEP coverage of 55% [95% confidence interval (CI) 43-64%] among high-risk MSM would achieve elimination in the Paris region. A complete condom drop by MSM using PrEP slightly increases the minimum PrEP coverage required for elimination, by ∼1%, whereas underestimation of their own HIV infection risk would require PrEP programs reduce the cost of using PrEP by a factor ∼2 to achieve elimination.

CONCLUSION

Elimination conditions are not yet met in the Paris region, where at most 47% of high-risk MSM were using PrEP as of mid-2019. Further lowering the cost of PrEP and promoting a fair perception of HIV risk are required and should be maintained in the long-run, to maintain elimination status.

Bayesian validation framework for dynamic epidemic models

Complex models of infectious diseases are used to understand the transmission dynamics of the disease, project the course of an epidemic, predict the effect of interventions and/or provide information for power calculations of community level intervention studies. However, there have been relatively few opportunities to rigorously evaluate the predictions of such models till now. Indeed, while there is a large literature on calibration (fitting model parameters) and validation (comparing model outputs to data) of complex models based on empirical data, the lack of uniformity in accepted criteria for such procedures for models of infectious diseases has led to simple procedures being prevalent for such steps. However, recently, several community level randomized trials of combination HIV intervention have been planned and/or initiated, and in each case, significant epidemic modeling efforts were conducted during trial planning which were integral to the design of these trials. The existence of these models and the (anticipated) availability of results from the related trials, provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the models and their usefulness in trial design. In this project, we outline a framework for evaluating the predictions of complex epidemiological models and describe experiments that can be used to test their predictions.

Exome Sequencing Reveals a Putative Role for HLA-C*03:02 in Control of HIV-1 in African Pediatric Populations

Human leucocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules present endogenously processed antigens to T-cells and have been linked to differences in HIV-1 disease progression. HLA allelotypes show considerable geographical and inter-individual variation, as does the rate of progression of HIV-1 disease, with long-term non-progression (LTNP) of disease having most evidence of an underlying genetic contribution. However, most genetic analyses of LTNP have occurred in adults of European ancestry, limiting the potential transferability of observed associations to diverse populations who carry the burden of disease. This is particularly true of HIV-1 infected children. Here, using exome sequencing (ES) to infer HLA allelotypes, we determine associations with HIV-1 LTNP in two diverse African pediatric populations. We performed a case-control association study of 394 LTNPs and 420 rapid progressors retrospectively identified from electronic medical records of pediatric HIV-1 populations in Uganda and Botswana. We utilized high-depth ES to perform high-resolution HLA allelotyping and assessed evidence of association between HLA class I alleles and LTNP. Sixteen HLA alleles and haplotypes had significantly different frequencies between Uganda and Botswana, with allelic differences being more prominent in HLA-A compared to HLA-B and C allelotypes. Three HLA allelotypes showed association with LTNP, including a novel association in HLA-C (HLA-B∗57:03, aOR 3.21, Pc = 0.0259; B∗58:01, aOR 1.89, Pc = 0.033; C∗03:02, aOR 4.74, Pc = 0.033). Together, these alleles convey an estimated population attributable risk (PAR) of non-progression of 16.5%. We also observed novel haplotype associations with HLA-B∗57:03-C∗07:01 (aOR 5.40, Pc = 0.025) and HLA-B∗58:01-C∗03:02 (aOR 4.88, Pc = 0.011) with a PAR of 9.8%, as well as a previously unreported independent additive effect and heterozygote advantage of HLA-C∗03:02 with B∗58:01 (aOR 4.15, Pc = 0.005) that appears to limit disease progression, despite weak LD (r 2 = 0.18) between these alleles. These associations remained irrespective of gender or country. In one of the largest studies of HIV in Africa, we find evidence of a protective effect of canonical HLA-B alleles and a novel HLA-C association that appears to augment existing HIV-1 control alleles in pediatric populations. Our findings outline the value of using multi-ethnic populations in genetic studies and offer a novel HIV-1 association of relevance to ongoing vaccine studies.

Effect of the Test and Treat Strategy on Mortality Among HIV-Positive Adult Clients on Antiretroviral Treatment in Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background

The primary goal of antiretroviral therapy is to prevent human immune deficiency virus (HIV)-related morbidity and mortality. Deferring antiretroviral therapy (ART) until CD4 counts decline puts individuals with HIV at risk of HIV-related morbidity and mortality.

Objective

This study aims to assess the effect of the test and treat strategy on mortality among HIV-positive clients on ART in public hospitals in Addis Ababa.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at five selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa. A cohort of 216 ART clients taken as an exposed group (test and treat" strategy) from 2017 to 2019 and 216 ART clients as an unexposed group taken from 2014 to 2017; totally, 432 clients were included in the study. Multivariate Cox regression was used to estimate the effect of the test and treat strategy on the survival of ART clients adjusting for other covariates.

Results

The 432 clients contributed to a total of 1025.17 person-years follow-up. Ninety-one (21.06%) of them died, 14.3% were unexposed and 6.7% were exposed (test and treat). The incidence of death was 92.4 and 81.8/1000 person-years in the unexposed group and exposed group, respectively, with an overall mortality rate of 88.8/1000 person-years. Besides, test and treat strategy (AHR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.19, 0.52), baseline CD4 counts >350 cells/mm3 (AHR 0.40; 95%: CI: 0.20, 0.80), bedridden functional status (AHR 2.46; 95% CI: 1.41, 4.27), poor adherence (AHR 3.25; 95% CI: 1.410-7.51), moderate malnutrition on last visit (AHR 2.56; 95% CI: 1.30-5.04) and staying on original regimen (AHR 4.68; 95% CI 2.72, 8.07) were independent predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

Mortality among HIV patients on treatment decreased significantly since the start of the test and treat strategy. Therefore, test and treat strategy should be strengthened in all public and private facilities throughout the country.

Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men

HIV set point viral load (SPVL), the viral load established shortly after initial infection, is a proxy for HIV virulence: higher SPVLs lead to higher risk of transmission and faster disease progression. Three models of test-and-treat scenarios, mainly in heterosexual populations, found that increasing treatment coverage selected for more virulent viruses. We modeled virulence evolution in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) with increasing test-and-treat coverage. We extended a stochastic, dynamic network model (EvoNetHIV). We varied relationship patterns (MSM vs. heterosexual), HIV transmission models (increasing vs. plateauing probability of transmission at very high viral loads), and treatment roll-out (with explicit testing or fixed intervals between infection and treatment). In scenarios most similar to previous models (longer relational durations and the plateauing transmission function), we replicated trends previously found: increasing treatment coverage led to increased virulence (0.12 log10 increase in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). In scenarios reflecting MSM behavioral data using the increasing transmission function, increasing treatment coverage selected for viruses with lower virulence (0.16 log10 decrease in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). These findings emphasize the impact of sexual network conditions and transmission function details on predicted epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes. Varying these features creates very different evolutionary environments, which in turn lead to opposite effects in mean population SPVL evolution. Our results suggest that, under some realistic conditions, effective test-and-treat strategies may not face the previously reported tradeoff in which increasing coverage leads to evolution of greater virulence. This suggests instead that a virtuous cycle of increasing treatment coverage and diminishing virulence is possible.

Evidence of sociodemographic heterogeneity across the HIV treatment cascade and progress towards 90-90-90 in sub-Saharan Africa - a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Heterogeneity of sociodemographics and risk behaviours across the HIV treatment cascade could influence the public health impact of universal ART in sub‐Saharan Africa if those not virologically suppressed are more likely to be part of a risk group contributing to onward infections. Sociodemographic and risk heterogeneity across the treatment cascade has not yet been comprehensively described or quantified and we seek to systematically review and synthesize research on this topic among adults in Africa.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of peer‐reviewed literature in Embase and MEDLINE databases as well as grey literature sources published in English between 2014 and 2018. We included studies that included people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged ≥15 years, and reported a 90‐90‐90 outcome: awareness of HIV‐positive status, ART use among those diagnosed or viral suppression among those on ART. We summarized measures of association between sociodemographics, within each outcome, and as a composite measure of population‐wide viral suppression.

Results and discussion

From 3533 screened titles, we extracted data from 92 studies (50 peer‐reviewed, 42 grey sources). Of included studies, 32 reported on awareness, 53 on ART use, 32 on viral suppression and 23 on population‐wide viral suppression. The majority of studies were conducted in South Africa, Uganda, and Malawi and reported data for age and gender. When stratified, PLHIV ages 15 to 24 years had lower median achievement of the treatment cascade (60‐49‐81), as compared to PLHIV ≥25 years (70‐63‐91). Men also had lower median achievement of the treatment cascade (66‐72‐85), compared to women (79‐76‐89). For population‐wide viral suppression, women aged ≥45 years had achieved the 73% target, while the lowest medians were among 15‐ to 24‐year‐old men (37%) and women (49%).

Conclusions

Considerable heterogeneity exists by age and gender for achieving the HIV 90‐90‐90 treatment goals. These results may inform delivery of HIV testing and treatment in sub‐Saharan Africa, as targeting youth and men could be a strategic way to maximize the population‐level impact of ART.

Mobility and its Effects on HIV Acquisition and Treatment Engagement: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Advances

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We reviewed literature across multiple disciplines to describe issues with the measurement of population mobility in HIV research and to summarize evidence of causal pathways linking mobility to HIV acquisition risks and treatment engagement, with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa.

RECENT FINDINGS

While the literature on mobility and HIV remains hampered by problems and inconsistency in measures of mobility, the recent research reveals a turn towards a greater attentiveness to measurement and gender. Theoretical and heuristic models for the study of mobility and HIV acquisition and treatment outcomes have been published, but few studies have used longitudinal designs with clear ascertainment of exposures and outcomes for measurement of causal pathways. Notwithstanding these limitations, evidence continues to accumulate that mobility is linked to higher HIV incidence, and that it challenges optimal treatment engagement. Gender continues to be important: while men are more mobile than women, women's mobility particularly heightens their HIV acquisition risks. Recent large-scale efforts to find, test, and treat the individuals in communities who are most at risk of sustaining local HIV transmission have been severely challenged by mobility. Novel interventions, policies, and health systems improvements are urgently needed to fully engage mobile individuals in HIV care and prevention. Interventions targeting the HIV prevention and care needs of mobile populations remain few in number and urgently needed.

Rapid Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy Following Diagnosis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Patients with Commercial Insurance Coverage

BACKGROUND

New guidelines for the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) advocate for rapid initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) ≤ 7 days after HIV diagnosis with agents that have a high genetic barrier to resistance, good tolerability, and convenient dosing.

OBJECTIVE

To describe characteristics, time to ART initiation, and health care costs in commercially insured patients living with HIV in the United States who are treated ≤ 60 days after HIV diagnosis.

METHODS

IBM MarketScan Research Databases (January 1, 2012-December 31, 2017) were used to identify ART-naive adults with HIV-1, ≥ 6 months of continuous eligibility before first HIV diagnosis, and ART initiation ≤ 60 days of first diagnosis. ART regimen had to include a protease inhibitor (PI), an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI), or a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) with ≥ 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Cohorts were formed based on time to ART initiation after diagnosis: ≤ 7 days or 8-60 days. Health care costs were evaluated at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after diagnosis among patients with ≥ 36 months of continuous eligibility.

RESULTS

Among 9,351 patients, median time to treatment was 31.0 days. Patients initiating ART > 60 days after HIV diagnosis were excluded (N = 2,608 [27.9%]), while 6,743 (72.1%) initiated ART ≤ 60 days after diagnosis and were analyzed; 18.3% and 81.7% were classified in the ≤ 7 days and 8-60 days cohorts, respectively. For all analyzed patients, mean age was 38.0 (SD = 12.0) years and 13.2% were female; 12.7%, 56.2%, and 31.1% initiated a PI, INSTI, or NNRTI-based regimen, respectively. Elvitegravir (32.9%), efavirenz (20.9%), dolutegravir (18.5%), and darunavir (8.5%) were the most commonly used antiretrovirals; most patients (74.3%) were initiated on single-tablet regimens. PI-based regimens were more common in the ≤ 7 days cohort (PI = 18.1%; darunavir = 11.4%) than in the 8-60 days cohort (PI = 11.5%; darunavir = 7.8%). INSTI-based regimens were more common in the 8-60 days cohort (INSTI = 57.7%; elvitegravir = 33.8%) than in the ≤ 7 days cohort (INSTI = 49.2%; elvitegravir = 29.1%). NNRTI-based regimens were as common in the ≤ 7 days (32.7%) and 8-60 days (30.7%) cohorts. Mean total accumulated costs were lower among patients in the ≤ 7 days cohort than in the 8-60 days cohort at all time points analyzed after diagnosis (e.g., 36 months: ≤ 7 days = $109,456; 8-60 days = $116,870). Total per-patient per-month costs decreased over time in the ≤ 7 days (i.e., 6 months = $4,359; 36 months = $3,040) and 8-60 days cohort (6 months = $4,727; 36 months = $3,246).

CONCLUSIONS

Although 72.1% of patients initiated ART ≤ 60 days after HIV diagnosis, only 18.3% initiated ART ≤ 7 days. Many patients initiating ART ≤ 7 days used suboptimal agents with low rather than high genetic barriers to resistance (i.e., efavirenz and elvitegravir) or agents (dolutegravir) coformulated with other antiretrovirals that require testing to prevent hypersensitivity reactions. Patients in the ≤ 7 days cohort showed lower total health care costs relative to those in the 8-60 days cohort, highlighting the potential long-term benefits of rapid ART initiation.

DISCLOSURES

This study was supported by Janssen Scientific Affairs, which was involved in the study design, interpretation of results, manuscript preparation, and publication decisions. Emond, Lefebvre, Lafeuille, and Côté-Sergent are employees of Analysis Group, a consulting company that was contracted by Janssen Scientific Affairs to conduct this study and develop the manuscript. Benson, Tandon, Chow, and Dunn are employees of Janssen Scientific Affairs and stockholders of Johnson & Johnson. Part of the material in this study has been presented at the AMCP 2019 Annual Meeting; March 25-28, 2019; San Diego, CA.

The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES

Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN

Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) data.

METHODS

We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to more accurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, we developed a new functional form for the HIV transmission rate, termed 'r-hybrid', which combines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and decline followed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted the r-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalence data from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 34 SSA countries. We used leave-one-out cross validation with household survey HIV prevalence to compare model predictions.

RESULTS

The r-hybrid and r-spline models typically provided similar HIV prevalence trends, but sometimes qualitatively different assessments of recent incidence trends because of different structural assumptions about the HIV transmission rate. The r-hybrid model had the lowest average continuous ranked probability score, indicating the best model predictions. Coverage of 95% posterior predictive intervals was 91.5% for the r-hybrid model, versus 87.2 and 85.5% for r-spline and r-trend, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The EPP-ASM and r-hybrid models improve consistency of EPP and Spectrum, improve the epidemiological assumptions underpinning recent HIV incidence estimates, and improve estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence trends. Countries that use general population survey and ANC-SS data to estimate HIV epidemic trends should consider using these tools.

Qualitative analysis of a stochastic SEITR epidemic model with multiple stages of infection and treatment

We present a mathematical analysis of the transmission of certain diseases using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-treated-recovered (SEITR) model with multiple stages of infection and treatment and explore the effects of treatments and external fluctuations in the transmission, treatment and recovery rates. We assume external fluctuations are caused by variability in the number of contacts between infected and susceptible individuals. It is shown that the expected number of secondary infections produced (in the absence of noise) reduces as treatment is introduced into the population. By defining RT,n and RT,n as the basic deterministic and stochastic reproduction numbers, respectively, in stage n of infection and treatment, we show mathematically that as the intensity of the noise in the transmission, treatment and recovery rates increases, the number of secondary cases of infection increases. The global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium for the deterministic and stochastic SEITR models is also presented. The work presented is demonstrated using parameter values relevant to the transmission dynamics of Influenza in the United States from October 1, 2018 through May 4, 2019 influenza seasons.

Improving the Validity of Mathematical Models for HIV Elimination by Incorporating Empirical Estimates of Progression Through the HIV Treatment Cascade

BACKGROUND

Optimism regarding prospects for eliminating HIV by expanding antiretroviral treatment has been emboldened in part by projections from several mathematical modeling studies. Drawing from a detailed empirical assessment of rates of progression through the entire HIV care cascade, we quantify for the first time the extent to which models may overestimate health benefits from policy changes when they fail to incorporate a realistic understanding of the cascade.

SETTING

Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We estimated rates of progression through stages of the HIV treatment cascade using data from a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Incorporating empirical estimates in a mathematical model of HIV progression, infection transmission, and care, we estimated life expectancy and secondary infections averted under a range of treatment scale-up scenarios reflecting expanding treatment eligibility thresholds. We compared the results with those implied by the conventional assumptions that have been commonly adopted by existing models.

RESULTS

Survival gains from expanding the treatment eligibility threshold from CD4 350-500 cells/μL and from 500 cells/μL to treating everyone irrespective of their CD4 count may be overestimated by 3.60 and 3.79 times in models that fail to capture realities of the care cascade. HIV infections averted from raising the threshold from CD4 200 to 350, 350 to 500, and 500 cells/μL to treating everyone may be overestimated by 1.10, 2.65, and 1.18 times, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Models using conventional assumptions about cascade progression may substantially overestimate health benefits. As implementation of treatment scale-up proceeds, it is important to assess the effects of required scale-up efforts in a way that incorporates empirical realities of how people move through the HIV cascade.

Within-host modeling of blood-stage malaria

Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs and vaccines are in development, and contributions to the rational design and optimal usage of these interventions are urgently needed. Infection involves the complex interaction of parasite dynamics, host immunity, and drug effects. The long life cycle (48 hours in the common human species) and synchronized replication cycle of the parasite population present significant challenges to modeling the dynamics of Plasmodium infection. Coupled with these, variation in immune recognition and drug action at different life cycle stages leads to further complexity. We review the development and progress of "within-host" models of Plasmodium infection, and how these have been applied to understanding and interpreting human infection and animal models of infection.

Impact of sexual trajectories of men who have sex with men on the reduction in HIV transmission by pre-exposure prophylaxis

Changes in sexual risk behavior over the life course in men who have sex with men (MSM) can influence population-level intervention efficacy. Our objective was to investigate the impact of incorporating sexual trajectories describing long-term changes in risk levels on the reduction in HIV prevalence by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM. Based on the Amsterdam Cohort Study data, we developed two models of HIV transmission in a population stratified by sexual behavior. In the first model, individuals were stratified into low, medium and high risk levels and did not change their risk levels. The second model had the same stratification but incorporated additionally three types of sexual behavior trajectories. The models assumed universal antiretroviral treatment of HIV⁺ MSM, and PrEP use by high risk HIV^- MSM. We computed the relative reduction in HIV prevalence in both models for annual PrEP uptakes of 10% to 80% at different time points after PrEP introduction. We then investigated the impact of sexual trajectories on the effectiveness of PrEP intervention. The impact of sexual trajectories on the overall prevalence and prevalence in individuals at low, medium and high risk levels varied with PrEP uptake and time after PrEP introduction. Compared to the model without sexual trajectories, the model with trajectories predicted a higher impact of PrEP on the overall prevalence, and on the prevalence among the medium and high risk individuals. In low risk individuals, there was more reduction in prevalence during the first 15 years of PrEP intervention if sexual trajectories were not incorporated in the model. After that point, at low risk level there was more reduction in the model with trajectories. In conclusion, our study predicts that sexual trajectories increase the estimated impact of PrEP on reducing HIV prevalence when compared to a population where risk levels do not change.

Estimating the incidence and diagnosed proportion of HIV infections in Japan: a statistical modeling study

Background

Epidemiological surveillance of HIV infection in Japan involves two technical problems for directly applying a classical backcalculation method, i.e., (i) all AIDS cases are not counted over time and (ii) people diagnosed with HIV have received antiretroviral therapy, extending the incubation period. The present study aimed to address these issues and estimate the HIV incidence and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections, using a simple statistical model.

Methods

From among Japanese nationals, yearly incidence data of HIV diagnoses and patients with AIDS who had not previously been diagnosed as HIV positive, from 1985 to 2017, were analyzed. Using the McKendrick partial differential equation, general convolution-like equations were derived, allowing estimation of the HIV incidence and the time-dependent rate of diagnosis. A likelihood-based approach was used to obtain parameter estimates.

Results

Assuming that the median incubation period was 10.0 years, the cumulative number of HIV infections was estimated to be 29,613 (95% confidence interval (CI): 29,059, 30,167) by the end of 2017, and the proportion of diagnosed HIV infections was estimated at 80.3% (95% CI [78.7%–82.0%]). Allowing the median incubation period to range from 7.5 to 12.3 years, the estimate of the proportion diagnosed can vary from 77% to 84%.

Discussion

The proportion of diagnosed HIV infections appears to have not yet reached 90% among Japanese nationals. Compared with the peak incidence from 2005–2008, new HIV infections have clearly been in a declining trend; however, there are still more than 1,000 new HIV infections per year in Japan. To increase the diagnosed proportion of HIV infections, it is critical to identify people who have difficulty accessing consultation, testing, and care, and to explore heterogeneous patterns of infection.

A study on the dynamics of temporary HIV treatment to assess the controversial outcomes of clinical trials: An in-silico approach

It is still unclear under which conditions temporary combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) results in a prolonged remission after interruption. Clinical trials have contradicting reposts about the effect of cART during primary HIV infection on the disease progression. Here we propose that the apparent contradiction is due the presence of a window of opportunity for cART treatment observed in the in silico studies. We study non-linear correlations in the HIV dynamics over time using information theory. This approach requires a large dataset of CD4+ T lymphocytes and viral load concentrations over time. Since it is unfeasible to collect the required amount of data in clinical trials we use C-ImmSim, a clinically validated in silico model of the HIV infection, to simulate the HIV infection and temporary cART in 500 virtual patients for a period of 6 years post infection in time steps of 8 hours. We validate the results of our model with two published clinical trials of temporary cART in acute infection and analyse the impact of cART on the immune response. Our quantitative analysis predicts a “window of opportunity” of about ten months after the acute phase during which a temporary cART has significantly longer-lasting beneficial effects on the immune system as compared to treatment during the chronic phase. This window may help to explain the controversial outcomes of clinical trials that differ by the starting time and duration of the short-term course cART and provides a critical insight to develop appropriate protocols for future clinical trials.

Measuring sexual behaviour in Malawi: a triangulation of three data collection instruments

BACKGROUND

There is a need for valid approaches to measure sexual interactions to assess the impact of behavioural interventions and to predict the impact of behaviour changes. Different methods of asking about sexual behaviour often yield conflicting answers and men often report higher levels of heterosexual activity than women. To better understand self-reported sexual behaviour data and how best to collect it, we analyzed data collected as part of a larger project (ST IMPACTS) on the social and behavioural impact of introducing community-level HIV self-testing (HIVST) with counseling (semi-supervised with pre- and generic post-test counseling provided on delivery or collection of test kits) in an urban Malawian setting.

METHODS

Information on sexual behaviour was collected from HIV self-testers over a three-month period. Three different methods were used: retrospective face-to-face interviews (FTFI); audio computer assisted self-interviews (ACASI) and a prospective coital diary. Both retrospective instruments were used before and after the three-month study period. Frequency and cross-tabulation, as well as scatterplots, were used for exploratory analyses. Chi-square tests were used to test for differences in proportions. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to explore associations between both continuous and ordinal variables and Wilcoxon's paired sample and Mann-Whitney test was used to test for differences in such variables or between variables.

RESULTS

There was reasonable agreement between the two retrospective methods although both yielded inconsistent answers e.g. with lower reported numbers of life-time sexual partners at the end than at the beginning of the study period. The diary method elicited higher reported levels of sex with multiple partners than both retrospective instruments which may be due to inadequate recall. Over the study period 37.4% of men and 19.7% of women reported multiple sexual partners using the diary. There was no clear relationship between reported sexual behaviour and HIV status (prevalence 9.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Diaries may therefore have higher validity for sensitive behaviour reporting and thus be the preferred method in similar African contexts in measuring sexual behaviours.

Global stability for a 2n+1 dimensional HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatments

In this work, we derive and analyze a 2n+1-dimensional deterministic differential equation modeling the transmission and treatment of HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) disease. The model is extended to a stochastic differential equation by introducing noise in the transmission rate of the disease. A theoretical treatment strategy of regular HIV testing and immediate treatment with Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is investigated in the presence and absence of noise. By defining R_{0, n}, R_{t, n} and R_t,n as the deterministic basic reproduction number in the absence of ART treatments, deterministic basic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatments and stochastic reproduction number in the presence of ART treatment, respectively, we discuss the stability of the infection-free and endemic equilibrium in the presence and absence of treatments by first deriving the closed form expression for R_{0, n}, R_{t, n} and R_t,n. We show that there is enough treatment to avoid persistence of infection in the endemic equilibrium state if R_t,n=1. We further show by studying the effect of noise in the transmission rate of the disease that transient epidemic invasion can still occur even if R_{t, n} < 1. This happens due to the presence of noise (with high intensity) in the transmission rate, causing R_t,n>1. A threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence and absence of noise is derived. Numerical simulation is presented for validation.

HIV Testing in Men who have Sex with Men: A Follow-up Review of the Qualitative Literature since 2010

The landscape of HIV testing has changed significantly in recent years following the rise in importance of the 'treatment as prevention' strategy and advancements in new HIV testing and prevention technologies. This review provides a synthesis of qualitative research findings published since 2010 on preferences and practices of men who have sex with men (MSM) surrounding HIV testing in high-income settings. MSM are one of the hardest groups to reach with standard or conventional HIV testing approaches. To develop innovative testing strategies for this particular group, a good understanding of their concerns, barriers and facilitators of accessing HIV testing is needed. This updated review provides valuable information for improving existing programs and designing new testing services for MSM.

A simple model of HIV epidemic in Italy: The role of the antiretroviral treatment

In the present paper we propose a simple time-varying ODE model to describe the evolution of HIV epidemic in Italy. The model considers a single population of susceptibles, without distinction of high-risk groups within the general population, and accounts for the presence of immigration and emigration, modelling their effects on both the general demography and the dynamics of the infected subpopulations. To represent the intra-host disease progression, the untreated infected population is distributed over four compartments in cascade according to the CD4 counts. A further compartment is added to represent infected people under antiretroviral therapy. The per capita exit rate from treatment, due to voluntary interruption or failure of therapy, is assumed variable with time. The values of the model parameters not reported in the literature are assessed by fitting available epidemiological data over the decade 2003÷2012. Predictions until year 2025 are computed, enlightening the impact on the public health of the early initiation of the antiretroviral therapy. The benefits of this change in the treatment eligibility consist in reducing the HIV incidence rate, the rate of new AIDS cases, and the rate of death from AIDS. Analytical results about properties of the model in its time-invariant form are provided, in particular the global stability of the equilibrium points is established either in the absence and in the presence of infected among immigrants.

Test-and-treat approach to HIV/AIDS: a primer for mathematical modeling

The public benefit of test-and-treat has induced a need to justify goodness for the public, and mathematical modeling studies have played a key role in designing and evaluating the test-and-treat strategy for controlling HIV/AIDS. Here we briefly and comprehensively review the essence of contemporary understanding of the test-and-treat policy through mathematical modeling approaches and identify key pitfalls that have been identified to date. While the decrease in HIV incidence is achieved with certain coverages of diagnosis, care and continued treatment, HIV prevalence is not necessarily decreased and sometimes the test-and-treat is accompanied by increased long-term cost of antiretroviral therapy (ART). To confront with the complexity of assessment on this policy, the elimination threshold or the effective reproduction number has been proposed for its use in determining the overall success to anticipate the eventual elimination. Since the publication of original model in 2009, key issues of test-and-treat modeling studies have been identified, including theoretical problems surrounding the sexual partnership network, heterogeneities in the transmission dynamics, and realistic issues of achieving and maintaining high treatment coverage in the most hard-to-reach populations. To explicitly design country-specific control policy, quantitative modeling approaches to each single setting with differing epidemiological context would require multi-disciplinary collaborations among clinicians, public health practitioners, laboratory technologists, epidemiologists and mathematical modelers.

Phylodynamic analysis to inform prevention efforts in mixed HIV epidemics

In HIV epidemics of Sub Saharan Africa, the utility of HIV prevention efforts focused on key populations at higher risk of HIV infection and transmission is unclear. We conducted a phylodynamic analysis of HIV-1 pol sequences from four different risk groups in Abuja, Nigeria to estimate transmission patterns between men who have sex with men (MSM) and a representative sample of newly enrolled treatment naive HIV clients without clearly recorded HIV acquisition risks. We develop a realistic dynamical infectious disease model which was fitted to time-scaled phylogenies for subtypes G and CRF02_AG using a structured-coalescent approach. We compare the infectious disease model and structured coalescent to commonly used genetic clustering methods. We estimate HIV incidence among MSM of 7.9% (95%CI, 7.0-10.4) per susceptible person-year, and the population attributable fraction of HIV transmissions from MSM to reproductive age females to be 9.1% (95%CI, 3.8-18.6), and from the reproductive age women to MSM as 0.2% (95%CI, 0.06-0.3). Applying these parameter estimates to evaluate a test-and-treat HIV strategy that target MSM reduces the total HIV infections averted by half with a 2.5-fold saving. These results suggest the importance of addressing the HIV treatment needs of MSM in addition to cost-effectiveness of specific scale-up of treatment for MSM in the context of the mixed HIV epidemic observed in Nigeria.

Design of the HPTN 065 (TLC-Plus) study: A study to evaluate the feasibility of an enhanced test, link-to-care, plus treat approach for HIV prevention in the United States

Background/Aims

HIV continues to be a major public health threat in the United States, and mathematical modeling has demonstrated that the universal effective use of antiretroviral therapy among all HIV-positive individuals (i.e. the “test and treat” approach) has the potential to control HIV. However, to accomplish this, all the steps that define the HIV care continuum must be achieved at high levels, including HIV testing and diagnosis, linkage to and retention in clinical care, antiretroviral medication initiation, and adherence to achieve and maintain viral suppression. The HPTN 065 (Test, Link-to-Care Plus Treat [TLC-Plus]) study was designed to determine the feasibility of the “test and treat” approach in the United States.

Methods

HPTN 065 was conducted in two intervention communities, Bronx, NY, and Washington, DC, along with four non-intervention communities, Chicago, IL; Houston, TX; Miami, FL; and Philadelphia, PA. The study consisted of five components: (1) exploring the feasibility of expanded HIV testing via social mobilization and the universal offer of testing in hospital settings, (2) evaluating the effectiveness of financial incentives to increase linkage to care, (3) evaluating the effectiveness of financial incentives to increase viral suppression, (4) evaluating the effectiveness of a computer-delivered intervention to decrease risk behavior in HIV-positive patients in healthcare settings, and (5) administering provider and patient surveys to assess knowledge and attitudes regarding the use of antiretroviral therapy for prevention and the use of financial incentives to improve health outcomes. The study used observational cohorts, cluster and individual randomization, and made novel use of the existing national HIV surveillance data infrastructure. All components were developed with input from a community advisory board, and pragmatic methods were used to implement and assess the outcomes for each study component.

Results

A total of 76 sites in Washington, DC, and the Bronx, NY, participated in the study: 37 HIV test sites, including 16 hospitals, and 39 HIV care sites. Between September 2010 and December 2014, all study components were successfully implemented at these sites and resulted in valid outcomes. Our pragmatic approach to the study design, implementation, and the assessment of study outcomes allowed the study to be conducted within established programmatic structures and processes. In addition, it was successfully layered on the ongoing standard of care and existing data infrastructure without disrupting health services.

Conclusion

The HPTN 065 study demonstrated the feasibility of implementing and evaluating a multi-component “test and treat” trial that included a large number of community sites and involved pragmatic approaches to study implementation and evaluation.

Increasing HIV testing among hard-to-reach groups: examination of RAPID, a community-based testing service in Queensland, Australia

Background

The success of ‘treatment as prevention’ (TasP) to control HIV relies on the uptake of testing across priority population groups. Innovative strategies including; rapid HIV testing (RHT) in community and outreach settings, engaging peer service providers, and not requiring disclosure of sexual history have been designed to increase access. This paper reports on the implementation of ‘RAPID’, a community-based testing program in Queensland, Australia that employs these strategies to increase access to testing.

Methods

Service data, including client registration forms and a satisfaction survey from all clients attending RAPID between August 2014 and July 2015 were analysed.

Results

In 2014/2015 1,199 people attended RAPID to receive a free HIV test. The majority were urban-based gay men. 17.1% were first-time testers and 20.1% of participants were not eligible to access Medicare, Australia’s universal health care scheme.

Conclusions

RAPID’s evidence-based strategies appear to facilitate access to HIV testing, particularly among those who have never tested before; however the implications for the ongoing treatment and care of people ineligible for Medicare, who test positive to HIV warrants careful consideration.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2249-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV testing practices and the potential role of HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men in Mexico

The objective of this study was to characterize HIV testing practices among men who have sex with men in Mexico and intention to use HIV self-testing. In 2012, members of one of the largest social/sexual networking websites for men who have sex with men in Latin America completed an anonymous online survey. This analysis was restricted to HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men residing in Mexico. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit to assess factors associated with HIV testing and intention to use a HIV self-test. Of 4537 respondents, 70.9% reported ever having a HIV test, of whom 75.5% reported testing at least yearly. The majority (94.3%) indicated that they would use a HIV home self-test if it were available. Participants identifying as bisexual less often reported ever HIV testing compared to those identifying as gay/homosexual (adjusted odds ratio = 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.62). Having a physical exam in the past year was associated with increased ever HIV testing (adjusted odds ratio = 4.35, 95% confidence interval: 3.73-5.07), but associated with decreased interest in HIV self-testing (adjusted odds ratio = 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.89). The high intention to use HIV home self-testing supports the use of this method as an acceptable alternative to clinic- or hospital-based HIV testing.

Clinical challenges in HIV/AIDS: Hints for advancing prevention and patient management strategies

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome has been one of the most devastating epidemics of the last century. The current estimate for people living with the HIV is 36.9 million. Today, despite availability of potent and safe drugs for effective treatment, lifelong therapy is required for preventing HIV re-emergence from a pool of latently infected cells. However, recent evidence show the importance to expand HIV testing, to offer antiretroviral treatment to all infected individuals, and to ensure retention through all the cascade of care. In addition, circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and other biomedical tools are now available for included in a comprehensive preventive package. Use of all the available tools might allow cutting the HIV transmission in 2030. In this article, we review the status of the epidemic, the latest advances in prevention and treatment, the concept of treatment as prevention and the challenges and opportunities for the HIV cure agenda.

Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy

The WHO’s early-release guideline for antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV infection based on a recent trial conducted in 34 countries recommends starting treatment immediately upon an HIV diagnosis. Therefore, the test-and-treat strategy may become more widely used in an effort to scale up HIV treatment and curb further transmission. Here we examine behavioural determinants of HIV transmission and how heterogeneity in sexual behaviour influences the outcomes of this strategy. Using a deterministic model, we perform a systematic investigation into the effects of various mixing patterns in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM), stratified by partner change rates, on the elimination threshold and endemic HIV prevalence. We find that both the level of overdispersion in the distribution of the number of sexual partners and mixing between population subgroups have a large influence on endemic prevalence before introduction of ART and on possible long term effectiveness of ART. Increasing heterogeneity in risk behavior may lead to lower endemic prevalence levels, but requires higher coverage levels of ART for elimination. Elimination is only feasible for populations with a rather low degree of assortativeness of mixing and requires treatment coverage of almost 80% if rates of testing and treatment uptake by all population subgroups are equal. In this case, for fully assortative mixing and 80% coverage endemic prevalence is reduced by 57%. In the presence of heterogeneity in ART uptake, elimination is easier to achieve when the subpopulation with highest risk behavior is tested and treated more often than the rest of the population, and vice versa when it is less. The developed framework can be used to extract information on behavioral heterogeneity from existing data which is otherwise hard to determine from population surveys.

HIV is endemic in populations of MSM in Western countries. As ART reduces transmission risk, increased testing and treatment rates are expected to lower HIV incidence. However, concerns are that in MSM populations changing risk behavior may counteract the impact of ART on transmission. Using a mathematical model, we investigated how heterogeneity in sexual behavior influences the possible effects of a test-and-treat strategy on HIV prevalence and in particular the prospects of eliminating HIV from these populations. We demonstrated that behavioral heterogeneity plays an important role in determining the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission. Knowledge of behavioral heterogeneity is key in setting intervention goals in populations of MSM.

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012.

METHODS

We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey.

FINDINGS

All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5-20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (difference 1·9, 95% CI -0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54-2·12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73-2·71).

INTERPRETATION

Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimating HIV Incidence, Time to Diagnosis, and the Undiagnosed HIV Epidemic Using Routine Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Estimates of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-infected population are important to understand the HIV epidemic and to plan interventions, including "test-and-treat" strategies.

METHODS

We developed a multi-state back-calculation model to estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis, and the undiagnosed population by CD4 count strata, using surveillance data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses. The HIV incidence curve was modelled using cubic splines. The model was tested on simulated data and applied to surveillance data on men who have sex with men in The Netherlands.

RESULTS

The number of HIV infections could be estimated accurately using simulated data, with most values within the 95% confidence intervals of model predictions. When applying the model to Dutch surveillance data, 15,400 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15,000, 16,000) men who have sex with men were estimated to have been infected between 1980 and 2011. HIV incidence showed a bimodal distribution, with peaks around 1985 and 2005 and a decline in recent years. Mean time to diagnosis was 6.1 (95% CI = 5.8, 6.4) years between 1984 and 1995 and decreased to 2.6 (2.3, 3.0) years in 2011. By the end of 2011, 11,500 (11,000, 12,000) men who have sex with men in The Netherlands were estimated to be living with HIV, of whom 1,750 (1,450, 2,200) were still undiagnosed. Of the undiagnosed men who have sex with men, 29% (22, 37) were infected for less than 1 year, and 16% (13, 20) for more than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This multi-state back-calculation model will be useful to estimate HIV incidence, time to diagnosis, and the undiagnosed HIV epidemic based on routine surveillance data.

Controlling HIV among people who inject drugs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia: insights from modeling

BACKGROUND

Although there is evidence of the effectiveness of needle and syringe programme (NSP), opioid substitution therapy (OST) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) in reducing HIV prevalence, most Central and Eastern European sub-regions still have low or no coverage of most or all of these interventions.

METHODS

We conducted a modelling analysis to consider the potential impact on HIV incidence and prevalence of OST, NSP and ART in three illustrative epidemic scenarios: Russia (St. Petersburg); Estonia (Tallinn) and Tajikistan (Dushanbe). For each intervention, we consider the coverage needed of each intervention separately or in combination to: (1) achieve a 30% or 50% relative reduction in HIV incidence or prevalence over 10 years; and (2) reduce HIV incidence to below 1% or HIV prevalence below 10% after 20 years. A sensitivity analysis for St. Petersburg considered the implications of greater on no risk heterogeneity, none or more sexual HIV transmission, like-with-like mixing, different injecting cessation rates and assuming a lower HIV acute phase cofactor.

RESULTS

For St. Petersburg, when OST, NSP and ART are combined, only 14% coverage of each intervention is required to achieve a 30% reduction in HIV incidence over 10 years. Similar findings are obtained for Tallinn and Dushanbe. In order to achieve the same reductions in HIV prevalence over 10 years, over double the coverage level is required relative to what was needed to achieve the same reduction in HIV incidence in that setting. To either reduce HIV incidence to less than 1% or HIV prevalence to less than 10% over 20 years, with all interventions combined, projections suggest that very high coverage levels of 74–85% are generally required for the higher prevalence settings of Tallinn and St. Petersburg, whereas lower coverage levels (23–34%) are needed in Dushanbe. Coverage requirements are robust to increased sexual HIV transmission, risk heterogeneity and like-with-like mixing, as well as to assuming a lower HIV acute phase cofactor or different injecting cessation rate.

CONCLUSION

The projections suggest that high but achievable coverage levels of NSP can result in large decreases (30%) in HIV incidence in settings with high HIV prevalence among PWID. Required coverage levels are much lower when interventions are combined or in lower prevalence settings. However, even when all three interventions are combined, the targets of reducing HIV incidence to less than 1% or prevalence to less than 10% in 20 years may be hard to achieve except in lower prevalence settings.

Role of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in current and future HIV prevention strategies

Treatment as prevention is expected to have a major role in reducing HIV incidence, but other prevention interventions will also be required to bring the epidemic under control, particularly among key populations. One or more forms of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) will likely play a critical role. Oral PrEP with emtricitabine-tenofovir (Truvada®) is currently available in the US and some other countries, but uptake has been slow. We review the concerns that have contributed to this slow uptake and discuss current and future research in this critical area of HIV prevention research.

Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of the Course of the HIV Epidemic Using Demographic and Health Survey Methodology-Like Data

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models have played important roles in the understanding of epidemics and in the study of the impacts of various behavioral or medical measures. However, modeling accurately the future spread of an epidemic requires context-specific parameters that are difficult to estimate because of lack of data. Our objective is to propose a methodology to estimate context-specific parameters using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-like data that can be used in mathematical modeling of short-term HIV spreading.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model splits the population according to sex, age, HIV status, and antiretroviral treatment status. To estimate context-specific parameters, we used individuals' histories included in DHS-like data and a statistical analysis that used decomposition of the Poisson likelihood. To predict the course of the HIV epidemic, sex- and age-specific differential equations were used. This approach was applied to recent data from Kenya. The approach allowed the estimation of several key epidemiological parameters. Women had a higher infection rate than men and the highest infection rate in the youngest age groups (15-24 and 25-34 years) whereas men had the highest infection rate in age group 25-34 years. The immunosuppression rates were similar between age groups. The treatment rate was the highest in age group 35-59 years in both sexes. The results showed that, within the 15-24 year age group, increasing male circumcision coverage and antiretroviral therapy coverage at CD4 ≤ 350/mm3 over the current 70% could have short-term impacts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study succeeded in estimating the model parameters using DHS-like data rather than literature data. The analysis provides a framework for using the same data for estimation and prediction, which can improve the validity of context-specific predictions and help designing HIV prevention campaigns.

Strong influence of behavioral dynamics on the ability of testing and treating HIV to stop transmission

Choosing between strategies to control HIV transmission with antivirals requires understanding both the dynamics affecting those strategies' effectiveness and what causes those dynamics. Alternating episodes of high and low contact rates (episodic risk) interact with increased transmission probabilities during early infection to strongly influence HIV transmission dynamics. To elucidate the mechanics of this interaction and how these alter the effectiveness of universal test and treat (UT8T) strategies, we formulated a model of UT8T effects. Analysis of this model shows how and why changing the dynamics of episodic risk changes the fraction of early transmissions (FET) and the basic reproduction number (R₀) and consequently causes UT8T to vary from easily eliminating transmission to having little effect. As the length of risk episodes varies from days to lifetimes, FET first increases, then falls. Endemic prevalence varies similarly. R₀, in contrast, increases monotonically and is the major determinant of UT8T effects. At some levels of episodic risk, FET can be high, but eradication is easy because R₀ is low. At others FET is lower, but a high R₀ makes eradication impossible and control ineffective. Thus changes in individual risk over time must be measured and analyzed to plan effective control strategies with antivirals.

Reassessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: accounting for heterogeneity and study design with simulated cohorts

BACKGROUND

The infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase has been directly measured only once, from a retrospectively identified cohort of serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda. Analyses of this cohort underlie the widespread view that the acute phase is highly infectious, even more so than would be predicted from its elevated viral load, and that transmission occurring shortly after infection may therefore compromise interventions that rely on diagnosis and treatment, such as antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP). Here, we re-estimate the duration and relative infectivity of the acute phase, while accounting for several possible sources of bias in published estimates, including the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and unmeasured heterogeneity in risk.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated acute phase infectivity using two approaches. First, we combined viral load trajectories and viral load-infectivity relationships to estimate infectivity trajectories over the course of infection, under the assumption that elevated acute phase infectivity is caused by elevated viral load alone. Second, we estimated the relative hazard of transmission during the acute phase versus the chronic phase (RHacute) and the acute phase duration (dacute) by fitting a couples transmission model to the Rakai retrospective cohort using approximate Bayesian computation. Our model fit the data well and accounted for characteristics overlooked by previous analyses, including individual heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility and the retrospective cohort's exclusion of couples that were recorded as serodiscordant only once before being censored by loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. Finally, we replicated two highly cited analyses of the Rakai data on simulated data to identify biases underlying the discrepancies between previous estimates and our own. From the Rakai data, we estimated RHacute = 5.3 (95% credibility interval [95% CrI]: 0.79-57) and dacute = 1.7 mo (95% CrI: 0.55-6.8). The wide credibility intervals reflect an inability to distinguish a long, mildly infectious acute phase from a short, highly infectious acute phase, given the 10-mo Rakai observation intervals. The total additional risk, measured as excess hazard-months attributable to the acute phase (EHMacute) can be estimated more precisely: EHMacute = (RHacute - 1) × dacute, and should be interpreted with respect to the 120 hazard-months generated by a constant untreated chronic phase infectivity over 10 y of infection. From the Rakai data, we estimated that EHMacute = 8.4 (95% CrI: -0.27 to 64). This estimate is considerably lower than previously published estimates, and consistent with our independent estimate from viral load trajectories, 5.6 (95% confidence interval: 3.3-9.1). We found that previous overestimates likely stemmed from failure to account for risk heterogeneity and bias resulting from the retrospective cohort study design. Our results reflect the interaction between the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and high (47%) rates of censorship amongst incident serodiscordant couples in the Rakai study due to loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. We estimated excess physiological infectivity during the acute phase from couples data, but not the proportion of transmission attributable to the acute phase, which would require data on the broader population's sexual network structure.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous EHMacute estimates relying on the Rakai retrospective cohort data range from 31 to 141. Our results indicate that these are substantial overestimates of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity, biased by unmodeled heterogeneity in transmission rates between couples and by inconsistent censoring. Elevated acute phase infectivity is therefore less likely to undermine TasP interventions than previously thought. Heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility may still play an important role in intervention success and deserves attention in future analyses.

HIV therapy-the state of art

HIV Attachment. In this cross section, HIV is shown at the top and a target cell is shown at the bottom in blues. HIV envelope protein (A) has bound to the receptor CD4 (B) and then to coreceptor CCR5 (C), causing a change in conformation that inserts fusion peptides into the cellular membrane Antiretroviral therapy changed the face of HIV/AIDS from that of soon and certain death to that of a chronic disease in the years following introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy in 1995-1996 (initially termed HAART, but now most often abbreviated to ART since not all combinations of regimens are equally active). Since then, many new agents have been developed and introduced in response to problems of resistance, toxicity, and tolerability, and great advances have been achieved in accessibility of HIV drugs in resource-poor global regions. Potential challenges that providers of HIV therapy will face in the coming decade include continuing problems with resistance, especially where access to drugs is inconsistent, determining how best to combine new and existing agents, defining the role of preventive treatment (pre-exposure prophylaxis or PrEP), and evaluating the potential of strategies for cure in some populations.

Rate and determinants of residual viremia in multidrug-experienced patients successfully treated with raltegravir-based regimens

Residual HIV viremia, defined by low levels of plasma HIV RNA with enhanced-sensitivity assays, may persist even in the presence of successful antiretroviral therapy, but little is known about its determinants. Our objective was to evaluate the rate and determinants of residual viremia in patients who show stable undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA with conventional assays. Forty-four multidrug-experienced patients with undetectable levels of HIV RNA for at least 2 years under raltegravir-based regimens were evaluated. An ultrasensitive (2.5 copies/ml) real-time PCR method was used to quantify plasma HIV RNA. After 12 months of salvage treatment, 48.3% of the patients had residual viremia between 2.5 and 37 copies/ml. The proportion of patients with plasma HIV RNA below 2.5 copies/ml decreased from 51.7% at 12 months to 30.8% at 24 months. The presence of residual viremia was not associated with levels of viremia before starting raltegravir. Considering CD4 counts, hepatitis B or C virus (HBV or HCV) coinfection, or other demographic characteristics, for the time interval between HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy, patients with a longer interval (>1 year) were significant less likely to have RNA levels below 2.5 copies/ml at 12 months compared to patients who started therapy within 1 year of HIV diagnosis (28.6% vs. 73.3%, p=0.027). Half of the patients showing undetectable HIV viremia with conventional assays had low-level viremia with ultrasensitive assays, with no predictive role of viroimmunological status at the start of the regimen. The potential influence of the interval between HIV diagnosis and initiation of treatment should be confirmed in subjects with a known date of seroconversion.

Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the infectiousness of HIV-infected persons, but only after testing, linkage to care, and successful viral suppression. Thus, a large proportion of HIV transmission during a period of high infectiousness in the first few months after infection ("early transmission") is perceived as a threat to the impact of HIV "treatment-as-prevention" strategies. We created a mathematical model of a heterosexual HIV epidemic to investigate how the proportion of early transmission affects the impact of ART on reducing HIV incidence. The model includes stages of HIV infection, flexible sexual mixing, and changes in risk behavior over the epidemic. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data from South Africa using a Bayesian framework. Immediately after ART was introduced, more early transmission was associated with a smaller reduction in HIV incidence rate--consistent with the concern that a large amount of early transmission reduces the impact of treatment on incidence. However, the proportion of early transmission was not strongly related to the long-term reduction in incidence. This was because more early transmission resulted in a shorter generation time, in which case lower values for the basic reproductive number (R0) are consistent with observed epidemic growth, and R0 was negatively correlated with long-term intervention impact. The fraction of early transmission depends on biological factors, behavioral patterns, and epidemic stage and alone does not predict long-term intervention impacts. However, early transmission may be an important determinant in the outcome of short-term trials and evaluation of programs.

Phylodynamic inference for structured epidemiological models

Coalescent theory is routinely used to estimate past population dynamics and demographic parameters from genealogies. While early work in coalescent theory only considered simple demographic models, advances in theory have allowed for increasingly complex demographic scenarios to be considered. The success of this approach has lead to coalescent-based inference methods being applied to populations with rapidly changing population dynamics, including pathogens like RNA viruses. However, fitting epidemiological models to genealogies via coalescent models remains a challenging task, because pathogen populations often exhibit complex, nonlinear dynamics and are structured by multiple factors. Moreover, it often becomes necessary to consider stochastic variation in population dynamics when fitting such complex models to real data. Using recently developed structured coalescent models that accommodate complex population dynamics and population structure, we develop a statistical framework for fitting stochastic epidemiological models to genealogies. By combining particle filtering methods with Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we are able to fit a wide class of stochastic, nonlinear epidemiological models with different forms of population structure to genealogies. We demonstrate our framework using two structured epidemiological models: a model with disease progression between multiple stages of infection and a two-population model reflecting spatial structure. We apply the multi-stage model to HIV genealogies and show that the proposed method can be used to estimate the stage-specific transmission rates and prevalence of HIV. Finally, using the two-population model we explore how much information about population structure is contained in genealogies and what sample sizes are necessary to reliably infer parameters like migration rates.

Mathematical models play an important role in our understanding of what processes drive the complex population dynamics of infectious pathogens. Yet developing statistical methods for fitting models to epidemiological data is difficult. Epidemiological data is often noisy, incomplete, aggregated across different scales and generally provides only a partial picture of the underlying disease dynamics. Using nontraditional sources of data, like molecular sequences of pathogens, can provide additional information about epidemiological dynamics. But current “phylodynamic” inference methods for fitting models to genealogies reconstructed from sequence data have a number of major limitations. We present a statistical framework that builds upon earlier work to address two of these limitations: population structure and stochasticity. By incorporating population structure, our framework can be applied in cases where the host population is divided into different subpopulations, such as by spatial isolation. Our framework also takes into consideration stochastic noise and can therefore capture the inherent variability of epidemiological dynamics. These advances allow for a much wider class of epidemiological models to be fit to genealogies in order to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to reconstruct past disease dynamics.

Treatment as prevention among injecting drug users; extrapolating from the Amsterdam cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the potential of treatment as prevention for reducing HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDU).

METHODS

Transmission dynamics of HIV as influenced by cART uptake and demographic changes were studied using an individual-based model. Parameters were based on data of the Amsterdam Cohort Study, and counterfactual treatment scenarios were examined for this city. Demography of the modeled population was also varied to allow for more general conclusions.

RESULTS

We estimated that over the complete HIV epidemic among IDU in Amsterdam the historic use of cART has led to only 2% less incidence. As individuals were treated from low CD4 cell counts, their decreased infectiousness was offset by increased infectious lifetime. Large reduction in incidence could result from a test and immediate treat strategy, with elimination of HIV occurring when the average time from infection to starting treatment was less than 2 months. However, substantial proportions of new infections were prevented only if the test and treat intervention was implemented within the first few years after HIV-epidemic onset, especially for a declining IDU population. Ignoring heterogeneity in risk-behavior led to overly optimistic expectations of the prevention effects of treatment. In general, treatment led to much greater reduction in incidence compared with stopping HIV-infected IDU from lending out syringes.

CONCLUSION

A test and immediate treat strategy for HIV among IDU could lead to great reductions in incidence. To fully eliminate the spread of HIV, treatment as prevention should be combined with other interventions, with behavioral intervention directed at those not yet HIV infected.

Toward an endgame: finding and engaging people unaware of their HIV-1 infection in treatment and prevention

Epidemic modeling suggests that a major scale-up in HIV treatment could have a dramatic impact on HIV incidence. This has led both researchers and policymakers to set a goal of an "AIDS-Free Generation." One of the greatest obstacles to achieving this objective is the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection. Despite recent innovations, new research strategies are needed to identify, engage, and successfully treat people who are unaware of their infection.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission: implications for Europe

The aim of this review is to summarise the evidence on the population-level effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing HIV infections, and to discuss potential implications in the European context of recommending starting ART when the CD4 count is above 350 cells/mm3. The ability of ART to reduce the risk of HIV transmission has been reported in observational studies and in a randomised controlled trial (HPTN 052), in which ART initiation reduced HIV transmission by 96% within serodiscordant couples. As yet, there is no direct evidence for such an effect among men having sex with men or people who inject drugs. HPTN 052 led international organisations to develop recommendations with a higher CD4 threshold for ART initiation. However, there remains a lack of strong evidence of clinical benefit for HIV-positive individuals starting ART with CD4 count above 350 cells/mm3. The main goal of ART provision should be to increase ART coverage for all those in need, based on the current guidelines, and the offer of ART to those who wish to reduce infectivity; increased HIV testing is therefore a key requirement. Other proven prevention means such as condom use and harm reduction for people who inject drugs remain critical.