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Yu W, Yang J, Sun D, Ren J, Xue B, Sun W, Xiao X, Xia JC, Li X. How urban heat island magnifies hot day exposure: Global unevenness derived from differences in built landscape. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 945:174043. [PMID: 38889813 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2024] [Revised: 05/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/14/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024]
Abstract
Urban heat-islands reportedly expose densely populated areas to higher temperatures. However, the magnitude of the impact of extra hot-day exposure (EHDE) and its association with the effects of urbanization on a global scale remain unclear. As local climate zones (LCZs) refine the impact of differences in urban built-type on heat-island effects, this study aimed to quantify the global EHDE caused by the urban heat-island effect based on LCZs and explored the joint impacts of low gross-domestic product and an increasing vulnerable-age population on EHDE. The results showed that EHDE accounted for 48.01 % of overall hot-day exposure. Additionally, despite a significant geographic differentiation among LCZ types with the highest EHDE intensity, they are almost typically building-intensive LCZs. Furthermore, our study revealed regional differences in the structure of the EHDE share in LCZs, which support the adoption of targeted EHDE mitigation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenbo Yu
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China; Jangho Architecture College, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China; Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China.
| | - Dongqi Sun
- Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China.
| | - Jiayi Ren
- School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110169, China.
| | - Bing Xue
- Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China.
| | - Wei Sun
- Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China.
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA.
| | - Jianhong Cecilia Xia
- School of Earth and Planetary Sciences (EPS), Curtin University, Perth 65630, Australia.
| | - Xueming Li
- Human Settlements Research Center, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China
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2
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Lemaire P, Furno A, Rubrichi S, Bondu A, Smoreda Z, Ziemlicki C, El Faouzi NE, Gaume E. Early detection of critical urban events using mobile phone network data. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0309093. [PMID: 39172817 PMCID: PMC11340987 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 08/06/2024] [Indexed: 08/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Network Signalling Data (NSD) have the potential to provide continuous spatio-temporal information about the presence, mobility, and usage patterns of cell phone services by individuals. Such information is invaluable for monitoring large urban areas and supporting the implementation of decision-making services. When analyzed in real time, NSD can enable the early detection of critical urban events, including fires, large accidents, stampedes, terrorist attacks, and sports and leisure gatherings, especially if these events significantly impact mobile phone network activity in the affected areas. This paper presents empirical evidence that advanced NSD can detect anomalies in mobile traffic service consumption, attributable to critical urban events, with fine spatial (a spatial resolution of a few decameters) and temporal (minutes) resolutions. We introduce two methodologies for real-time anomaly detection from multivariate time series extracted from large-scale NSD, utilizing a range of algorithms adapted from the state-of-the-art in unsupervised machine learning techniques for anomaly detection. Our research includes a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of these algorithms on a large-scale dataset of NSD service consumption for the Paris region. The evaluation uses an original dataset of documented critical or unusual urban events. This dataset has been built as a ground truth basis for assessing the algorithms' performance. The obtained results demonstrate that our framework can detect unusual events almost instantaneously and locate the affected areas with high precision, largely outperforming random classifiers. This efficiency and effectiveness underline the potential of NSD-based anomaly detection in significantly enhancing emergency response strategies and urban planning. By offering a proactive approach to managing urban safety and resilience, our findings highlight the transformative potential of leveraging NSD for anomaly detection in urban environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Lemaire
- LICIT-ECO7 UMR T9401, ENTPE, University Gustave Eiffel, Lyon, France
| | - Angelo Furno
- LICIT-ECO7 UMR T9401, ENTPE, University Gustave Eiffel, Lyon, France
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Eric Gaume
- GERS, University Gustave Eiffel, Nantes, France
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3
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Yan X, Huang Z, Ren S, Yin G, Qi J. Monthly electricity consumption data at 1 km × 1 km grid for 280 cities in China from 2012 to 2019. Sci Data 2024; 11:877. [PMID: 39138216 PMCID: PMC11322163 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03684-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2024] [Accepted: 07/25/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024] Open
Abstract
High spatio-temporal resolution estimates of electricity consumption are essential for formulating effective energy transition strategies. However, the data availability is limited by complex spatio-temporal heterogeneity and insufficient multi-source feature fusion. To address these issues, this study introduces an innovative downscaling method that combines multi-source data with machine learning and spatial interpolation techniques. The method's accuracy showed significant improvements, with determination coefficients (R2) increasing by 30.1% and 33.4% over the baseline model in two evaluation datasets. With this advanced model, we estimated monthly electricity consumption across 1 km x 1 km grid for 280 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2019. Our dataset is highly consistent with officially released electricity consumption of different industries (Pearson correlation coefficients within 0.83 - 0.91). Moreover, our data can reflect the electricity consumption patterns of different urban land uses compared to other datasets. This study bridges a significant gap in fine-grained electricity consumption data, providing a robust foundation for the development of sustainable energy policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqin Yan
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhou Huang
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing, China.
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, China.
| | - Shuliang Ren
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Ganmin Yin
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Junnan Qi
- Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Lab of Spatial Information Integration & Its Applications, Peking University, Beijing, China
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4
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Boogaerts T, Van Wichelen N, Quireyns M, Burgard D, Bijlsma L, Delputte P, Gys C, Covaci A, van Nuijs ALN. Current state and future perspectives on de facto population markers for normalization in wastewater-based epidemiology: A systematic literature review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 935:173223. [PMID: 38761943 PMCID: PMC11270913 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2024] [Revised: 05/10/2024] [Accepted: 05/11/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) and wastewater surveillance have become a valuable complementary data source to collect information on community-wide exposure through the measurement of human biomarkers in influent wastewater (IWW). In WBE, normalization of data with the de facto population that corresponds to a wastewater sample is crucial for a correct interpretation of spatio-temporal trends in exposure and consumption patterns. However, knowledge gaps remain in identifying and validating suitable de facto population biomarkers (PBs) for refinement of WBE back-estimations. WBE studies that apply de facto PBs (including hydrochemical parameters, utility consumption data sources, endo- and exogenous chemicals, biological biomarkers and signalling records) for relative trend analysis and absolute population size estimation were systematically reviewed from three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS) according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included in this review 81 publications that accounted for daily variations in population sizes by applying de facto population normalization. To date, a wide range of PBs have been proposed for de facto population normalization, complicating the comparability of normalized measurements across WBE studies. Additionally, the validation of potential PBs is complicated by the absence of an ideal external validator, magnifying the overall uncertainty for population normalization in WBE. Therefore, this review proposes a conceptual tier-based cross-validation approach for identifying and validating de facto PBs to guide their integration for i) relative trend analysis, and ii) absolute population size estimation. Furthermore, this review also provides a detailed evaluation of the uncertainty observed when comparing different de jure and de facto population estimation approaches. This study shows that their percentual differences can range up to ±200 %, with some exceptions showing even larger variations. This review underscores the need for collaboration among WBE researchers to further streamline the application of de facto population normalization and to evaluate the robustness of different PBs in different socio-demographic communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim Boogaerts
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Natan Van Wichelen
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Maarten Quireyns
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Dan Burgard
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA, USA
| | - Lubertus Bijlsma
- Environmental and Public Health Analytical Chemistry, Research Institute for Pesticides and Water, University Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
| | - Peter Delputte
- Laboratory for Microbiology, Parasitology and Hygiene, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Infla-Med Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Celine Gys
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Adrian Covaci
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | - Alexander L N van Nuijs
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium; Exposome Center of Excellence, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
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5
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Osorio Arjona J. Analyzing post-COVID-19 demographic and mobility changes in Andalusia using mobile phone data. Sci Rep 2024; 14:14828. [PMID: 38937608 PMCID: PMC11211321 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-65843-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/29/2024] Open
Abstract
This work studies changes in the demographics of the different spatial units that make up the Andalusia region in Spain throughout the year 2021, with the aim of seeing the progressive recovery of the population after the COVID-19 pandemic. Mobile phone data from Origin-Destination matrices has been used, due to the ease of obtaining updated information quickly and constantly. A methodology has been developed to transform the number of travelers into an estimated population without biases, and an interpolation function has been used to take into account all the data available in the year 2021. Results show a direct link between the demographic changes in Andalusia and the removal of the mobility restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with an increase of non-related work mobility and a decrease of static population. Travel distances between home and work places are also affected, with an increase of long trips after the end of the mobility restrictions. In addition, different patterns have been visualized, such as the concentration of commuting in the metropolitan areas of the region during working days, the population growth in rural areas during weekends, or the population displacement to coastal areas in summer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joaquín Osorio Arjona
- Department of Geography, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia, 28040, Madrid, Spain.
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6
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Li W, Zhang Y, Li M, Long Y. Rethinking the country-level percentage of population residing in urban area with a global harmonized urban definition. iScience 2024; 27:110125. [PMID: 38904069 PMCID: PMC11186970 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024] Open
Abstract
The UN (United Nations) collects global data on the country-level Percentage of Population Residing in Urban Area (PPRUA). However, variations in urban definitions make these data incomparable across countries. This study assesses national defined PPRUA within UN statistics against estimates we derived using global comparable definitions. Refer to the UN's Degree of Urbanization framework, we propose 90 global harmonized methods for estimating PPRUA by combining different configurations of three global population datasets, six urban total population thresholds, and five urban population density thresholds. This approach demonstrated significant variations in country-level PPRUA estimations, with wide 95% confidence intervals using the Z score method. Most national defined PPRUA fall between the upper 95% CI and the median of the estimations, underscoring the need for globally harmonious PPRUA estimates. This study advocates for a reassessment of datasets and thresholds in the future and for investigating urbanization on a scale beyond the country level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenyue Li
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
- School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Yecheng Zhang
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Mengxing Li
- Faculty of Information Technology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia
| | - Ying Long
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
- Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Key Laboratory of Ecological Planning & Green Building, Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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7
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Song Y, Wu S, Chen B, Bell ML. Unraveling near real-time spatial dynamics of population using geographical ensemble learning. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION : ITC JOURNAL 2024; 130:103882. [PMID: 38938876 PMCID: PMC11210339 DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2024.103882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/29/2024]
Abstract
Dynamic gridded population data are crucial in fields such as disaster reduction, public health, urban planning, and global change studies. Despite the use of multi-source geospatial data and advanced machine learning models, current frameworks for population spatialization often struggle with spatial non-stationarity, temporal generalizability, and fine temporal resolution. To address these issues, we introduce a framework for dynamic gridded population mapping using open-source geospatial data and machine learning. The framework consists of (i) delineation of human footprint zones, (ii) construction of muliti-scale population prediction models using automated machine learning (AutoML) framework and geographical ensemble learning strategy, and (iii) hierarchical population spatial disaggregation with pycnophylactic constraint-based corrections. Employing this framework, we generated hourly time-series gridded population maps for China in 2016 with a 1-km spatial resolution. The average accuracy evaluated by root mean square deviation (RMSD) is 325, surpassing datasets like LandScan, WorldPop, GPW, and GHSL. The generated seamless maps reveal the temporal dynamic of population distribution at fine spatial scales from hourly to monthly. This framework demonstrates the potential of integrating spatial statistics, machine learning, and geospatial big data in enhancing our understanding of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in population distribution, which is essential for urban planning, environmental management, and public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yimeng Song
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Shengbiao Wu
- Future Urbanity & Sustainable Environment (FUSE) Lab, Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Bin Chen
- Future Urbanity & Sustainable Environment (FUSE) Lab, Division of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
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8
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Berke A, Calacci D, Mahari R, Yabe T, Larson K, Pentland S. Open e-commerce 1.0, five years of crowdsourced U.S. Amazon purchase histories with user demographics. Sci Data 2024; 11:491. [PMID: 38740768 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03329-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/29/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024] Open
Abstract
This is a first-of-its-kind dataset containing detailed purchase histories from 5027 U.S. Amazon.com consumers, spanning 2018 through 2022, with more than 1.8 million purchases. Consumer spending data are customarily collected through government surveys to produce public datasets and statistics, which serve public agencies and researchers. Companies now collect similar data through consumers' use of digital platforms at rates superseding data collection by public agencies. We published this dataset in an effort towards democratizing access to rich data sources routinely used by companies. The data were crowdsourced through an online survey and shared with participants' informed consent. Data columns include order date, product code, title, price, quantity, and shipping address state. Each purchase history is linked to survey data with information about participants' demographics, lifestyle, and health. We validate the dataset by showing expenditure correlates with public Amazon sales data (Pearson r = 0.978, p < 0.001) and conduct analyses of specific product categories, demonstrating expected seasonal trends and strong relationships to other public datasets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Berke
- MIT Media Lab, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
| | - Dan Calacci
- MIT Media Lab, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
- Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
| | - Robert Mahari
- MIT Media Lab, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
- Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Takahiro Yabe
- MIT Institute of Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS), Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
- New York University Center for Urban Science and Progress, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, USA
| | | | - Sandy Pentland
- MIT Media Lab, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
- MIT Connection Science, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
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9
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Liang Y, Zhang X, Gan L, Chen S, Zhao S, Ding J, Kang W, Yang H. Mapping specific groundwater nitrate concentrations from spatial data using machine learning: A case study of chongqing, China. Heliyon 2024; 10:e27867. [PMID: 38524545 PMCID: PMC10958364 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2023] [Revised: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024] Open
Abstract
Groundwater resources is not only important essential water resources but also imperative connectors within the intricate framework of the ecological environment. High nitrate concentrations in groundwater can exerting adverse impacts on human health. It is imperative to accurately delineate the distribution characteristics of groundwater nitrate concentrations. Four different machine learning models (Gradient Boosting Regression (GB), Random Forest Regression (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression (XG) and Adaptive Boosting Regression (AD)) which combine spatial environmental data and different radius contributing area was developed to predict the distribution of nitrate concentration in groundwater. The models use 595 groundwater samples and included topography, remote sensing, hydrogeological and hydrological, climate, nitrate input, and socio-economic predictor. Gradient Boosting Regression model outperforms the other models (R2 = 0.627, MAE = 0.529, RMSE = 0.705, PICP = 0.924 for test dataset) under 500 m radius contributing area. A high-resolution (1 km) groundwater nitrate concentration distribution map reveal in the majority of the study area, groundwater nitrate concentrations are below 1 mg/L and high nitrate concentration (>10 mg/L) proportion in southeast, northeast and central main urban area karst valley regions is 1.89%, 0.91%, and 0.38% respectively. In study area, hydrogeological conditions, soil parameters, nitrogen input factors, and percentage of arable land are among the most influential explanatory factors. This work, serving as the inaugural application of utilizing effective spatial methods for predicting groundwater nitrate concentrations in Chongqing city, furnish decision-making support for the prevention and control of groundwater pollution, particularly in areas primarily dependent on groundwater for water supply and holds profound significance as a milestone achievement.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuanyi Liang
- Observation and Research Station of Ecological Restoration for Chongqing Typical Mining Areas, Ministry of Natural Resources (Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources) Chongqing, 401120, China
| | - Xingjun Zhang
- Observation and Research Station of Ecological Restoration for Chongqing Typical Mining Areas, Ministry of Natural Resources (Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources) Chongqing, 401120, China
| | - Lin Gan
- Chongqing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Chongqing, 401122, China
| | - Si Chen
- Observation and Research Station of Ecological Restoration for Chongqing Typical Mining Areas, Ministry of Natural Resources (Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources) Chongqing, 401120, China
| | - Shandao Zhao
- Chongqing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Chongqing, 401122, China
| | - Jihui Ding
- Chongqing Institute of Geological Environment Monitoring, Chongqing, 401122, China
| | - Wulue Kang
- Observation and Research Station of Ecological Restoration for Chongqing Typical Mining Areas, Ministry of Natural Resources (Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources) Chongqing, 401120, China
| | - Han Yang
- Observation and Research Station of Ecological Restoration for Chongqing Typical Mining Areas, Ministry of Natural Resources (Chongqing Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources) Chongqing, 401120, China
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Hassler J, Andersson Granberg T, Steins K, Ceccato V. Towards more realistic measures of accessibility to emergency departments in Sweden. Int J Health Geogr 2024; 23:6. [PMID: 38431597 PMCID: PMC10909287 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-024-00364-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/05/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Assuring that emergency health care (EHC) is accessible is a key objective for health care planners. Conventional accessibility analysis commonly relies on resident population data. However, the allocation of resources based on stationary population data may lead to erroneous assumptions of population accessibility to EHC. METHOD Therefore, in this paper, we calculate population accessibility to emergency departments in Sweden with a geographical information system based network analysis. Utilizing static population data and dynamic population data, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of how static population data over- or underestimates population sizes derived from temporally dynamic population data. RESULTS Our findings show that conventional measures of population accessibility tend to underestimate population sizes particularly in rural areas and in smaller ED's catchment areas compared to urban, larger ED's-especially during vacation time in the summer. CONCLUSIONS Planning based on static population data may thus lead to inequitable distributions of resources. This study is motivated in light of the ongoing centralization of ED's in Sweden, which largely depends on population sizes in ED's catchment areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacob Hassler
- Department of Urban Planning and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10 A, 10044, Stockholm, Sweden.
| | | | - Krisjanis Steins
- Department of Science and Technology, Linköping University/ITN, 60174, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Vania Ceccato
- Department of Urban Planning and Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Teknikringen 10 A, 10044, Stockholm, Sweden
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11
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Nieves JJ, Gaughan AE, Stevens FR, Yetman G, Gros A. A simulated 'sandbox' for exploring the modifiable areal unit problem in aggregation and disaggregation. Sci Data 2024; 11:239. [PMID: 38402236 PMCID: PMC10894218 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-024-03061-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2023] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 02/26/2024] Open
Abstract
We present a spatial testbed of simulated boundary data based on a set of very high-resolution census-based areal units surrounding Guadalajara, Mexico. From these input areal units, we simulated 10 levels of spatial resolutions, ranging from levels with 5,515-52,388 units and 100 simulated zonal configurations for each level - totalling 1,000 simulated sets of areal units. These data facilitate interrogating various realizations of the data and the effects of the spatial coarseness and zonal configurations, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), on applications such as model training, model prediction, disaggregation, and aggregation processes. Further, these data can facilitate the production of spatially explicit, non-parametric estimates of confidence intervals via bootstrapping. We provide a pre-processed version of these 1,000 simulated sets of areal units, meta- and summary data to assist in their use, and a code notebook with the means to alter and/or reproduce these data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremiah J Nieves
- University of Glasgow, School of Geographical & Earth Sciences, Glasgow, UK.
| | - Andrea E Gaughan
- University of Louisville, Dept. of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Louisville, USA
| | - Forrest R Stevens
- University of Louisville, Dept. of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Louisville, USA
| | - Greg Yetman
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), University of Columbia, Columbia, USA
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12
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Sun Z, Zhang X, Li Z, Liang Y, An X, Zhao Y, Miao S, Han L, Li D. Heat exposure assessment based on high-resolution spatio-temporal data of population dynamics and temperature variations. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 349:119576. [PMID: 37979386 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119576] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2023] [Revised: 11/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 11/20/2023]
Abstract
Urban heat waves pose a significant risk to the health and safety of city dwellers, with urbanization potentially amplifying the health impact of extreme heat. Accurate assessments of population heat exposure hinge on the interplay between temperature, population spatial dynamics, and the epidemiological effects of temperature on health. Yet, many past studies have over-simplified the matter by assuming static populations, leading to substantial inaccuracies in heat exposure assessments. To address these issues, this study integrates dynamic population data, fluctuating temperature, and the exposure-response relationship between temperature and health to construct an advanced heat exposure assessment framework predicated on a population dynamic model. We analyzed urban heat island characteristics, population dynamics, and heat exposure during heat wave conditions in Beijing, a major city in China. Our findings highlight significant intra-day population movement between urban and suburban areas during heat wave conditions, with spatial population flow patterns showing clear scale-dependent characteristics. These population flow dynamics intensify heat exposure levels, and the disparity between dynamic population-weighted temperature and average temperature is most pronounced at night. Our research provides a more comprehensive understanding of real urban population heat exposure levels and can furnish city administrators with more scientifically rigorous evidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaobin Sun
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- Beijing Meteorological Data Center, Beijing, 100097, China
| | - Ziming Li
- Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Yinglin Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Xingqin An
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Yuxin Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
| | - Shiguang Miao
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Ling Han
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China
| | - Demin Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, 100192, China
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13
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Xu Y, Ma T, Yuan Z, Tian J, Zhao N. Spatial patterns in pollution discharges from livestock and poultry farm and the linkage between manure nutrients load and the carrying capacity of croplands in China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 901:166006. [PMID: 37541506 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/06/2023]
Abstract
The rapid development of livestock and poultry farming in China has resulted in an increasing threat of water pollution. In particular, mitigating livestock-related pollutant discharges is a key issue for environmental sustainability, especially for inland surface water bodies. In order to ensure the effective control of pollution and the efficient utilization management of livestock manure, spatially explicit surveys of pollutant generation and discharge from the livestock sector must be performed. In the present study, we estimated the grid cell-level distributions in the generation and discharge of four typical pollutants (chemical oxygen demand, ammonium nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from the livestock sector across the country with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds. The distributions were estimated using the most recent pollution source census data and multi-sourced ancillary materials by a dasymetric mapping approach. We further investigated the feasibility of the resource utilization of livestock manure by comparing manure-source nutrients with the carrying capacity of adjacent croplands. Our results show that low-intensive farming generated and discharged the majority of livestock farming pollution, with other cattle and pigs breeding identified as the two major sources of pollution from the livestock sector. Southwest, Central and East China suffered the highly densified pollutants generation and discharges. Furthermore, cropland exceeding its carrying capacity was concentrated in these regions. Our findings provide additional insights into livestock and poultry farming in the context of relocation, strengthening regulation, transforming breeding operations, and rationalizing the resource use of manure, all of which are important measures for the sustainable development of both agriculture and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxuan Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Ting Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
| | - Ze Yuan
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Jiaxin Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Na Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
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14
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Bertels X, Hanoteaux S, Janssens R, Maloux H, Verhaegen B, Delputte P, Boogaerts T, van Nuijs ALN, Brogna D, Linard C, Marescaux J, Didy C, Pype R, Roosens NHC, Van Hoorde K, Lesenfants M, Lahousse L. Time series modelling for wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19: A nationwide study in 40 wastewater treatment plants of Belgium, February 2021 to June 2022. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 899:165603. [PMID: 37474075 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165603] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2023] [Revised: 07/11/2023] [Accepted: 07/15/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been implemented to monitor surges of COVID-19. Yet, multiple factors impede the usefulness of WBE and quantitative adjustment may be required. AIM We aimed to model the relationship between WBE data and incident COVID-19 cases, while adjusting for confounders and autocorrelation. METHODS This nationwide WBE study includes data from 40 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Belgium (02/2021-06/2022). We applied ARIMA-based modelling to assess the effect of daily flow rate, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) concentration, a measure of human faeces in wastewater, and variants (alpha, delta, and omicron strains) on SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater. Secondly, adjusted WBE metrics at different lag times were used to predict incident COVID-19 cases. Model selection was based on AICc minimization. RESULTS In 33/40 WWTPs, RNA levels were best explained by incident cases, flow rate, and PMMoV. Flow rate and PMMoV were associated with -13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: -26.1 to +0.2 %) and +13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: +5.1 to +21.0 %) change in RNA levels per SD increase, respectively. In 38/40 WWTPs, variants did not explain variability in RNA levels independent of cases. Furthermore, our study shows that RNA levels can lead incident cases by at least one week in 15/40 WWTPs. The median population size of leading WWTPs was 85.1 % larger than that of non‑leading WWTPs. In 17/40 WWTPs, however, RNA levels did not lead or explain incident cases in addition to autocorrelation. CONCLUSION This study provides quantitative insights into key determinants of WBE, including the effects of wastewater flow rate, PMMoV, and variants. Substantial inter-WWTP variability was observed in terms of explaining incident cases. These findings are of practical importance to WBE practitioners and show that the early-warning potential of WBE is WWTP-specific and needs validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xander Bertels
- Department of Bioanalysis, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | - Sven Hanoteaux
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Raphael Janssens
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Hadrien Maloux
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Bavo Verhaegen
- Infectious Diseases in Humans, Foodborne Pathogens, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Peter Delputte
- Laboratory for Microbiology, Parasitology and Hygiene, University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
| | - Tim Boogaerts
- Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, 2610 Antwerp, Belgium
| | | | - Delphine Brogna
- Institute of Life, Earth and Environment, University of Namur, 5000 Namur, Belgium
| | - Catherine Linard
- Institute of Life, Earth and Environment, University of Namur, 5000 Namur, Belgium
| | - Jonathan Marescaux
- Institute of Life, Earth and Environment, University of Namur, 5000 Namur, Belgium; E-BIOM SA, 5000 Namur, Belgium
| | - Christian Didy
- Société Publique de Gestion de l'Eau, 4800 Verviers, Belgium
| | - Rosalie Pype
- Société Publique de Gestion de l'Eau, 4800 Verviers, Belgium
| | - Nancy H C Roosens
- Biological Health Risks, Transversal Activities in Applied Genomics, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Koenraad Van Hoorde
- Infectious Diseases in Humans, Foodborne Pathogens, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Marie Lesenfants
- Epidemiology and Public Health, Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, Sciensano, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Lies Lahousse
- Department of Bioanalysis, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium.
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15
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Ellis-Soto D, Oliver RY, Brum-Bastos V, Demšar U, Jesmer B, Long JA, Cagnacci F, Ossi F, Queiroz N, Hindell M, Kays R, Loretto MC, Mueller T, Patchett R, Sims DW, Tucker MA, Ropert-Coudert Y, Rutz C, Jetz W. A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions. Nat Ecol Evol 2023; 7:1362-1372. [PMID: 37550509 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-023-02125-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 08/09/2023]
Abstract
As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diego Ellis-Soto
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
| | - Ruth Y Oliver
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
| | - Vanessa Brum-Bastos
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
- Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Wroclaw University of Environmental Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Urška Demšar
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Brett Jesmer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Jed A Long
- Department of Geography & Environment, Centre for Animals on the Move, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
- National Biodiversity Future Center S.C.A.R.L., Palermo, Italy
| | - Federico Ossi
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Nuno Queiroz
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado/BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal
- Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, UK
| | - Mark Hindell
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, NC, USA
- Dept Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - Matthias-Claudio Loretto
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
- Department of Migration, Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt (Main), Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Robert Patchett
- Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - David W Sims
- Marine Biological Association, Plymouth, UK
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Centre for Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Marlee A Tucker
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Yan Ropert-Coudert
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, La Rochelle Université - CNRS, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Christian Rutz
- Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
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16
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Madsen AE, Lyon BE, Chaine AS, Block TA, Shizuka D. Loss of flockmates weakens winter site fidelity in golden-crowned sparrows ( Zonotrichia atricapilla). Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2219939120. [PMID: 37523568 PMCID: PMC10410770 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2219939120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Animal social interactions have an intrinsic spatial basis as many of these interactions occur in spatial proximity. This presents a dilemma when determining causality: Do individuals interact socially because they happen to share space, or do they share space because they are socially linked? We present a method that uses demographic turnover events as a natural experiment to investigate the links between social associations and space use in the context of interannual winter site fidelity in a migratory bird. We previously found that golden-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia atricapilla) show consistent flocking relationships across years, and that familiarity between individuals influences the dynamics of social competition over resources. Using long-term data on winter social and spatial behavior across 10 y, we show that i) sparrows exhibit interannual fidelity to winter home ranges on the scale of tens of meters and ii) the precision of interannual site fidelity increases with the number of winters spent, but iii) this fidelity is weakened when sparrows lose close flockmates from the previous year. Furthermore, the effect of flockmate loss on site fidelity was higher for birds that had returned in more than 2 winters, suggesting that social fidelity may play an increasingly important role on spatial behavior across the lifetime of this migratory bird. Our study provides evidence that social relationships can influence site fidelity, and shows the potential of long-term studies for disentangling the relationship between social and spatial behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastasia E. Madsen
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE68588
| | - Bruce E. Lyon
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA90560
| | - Alexis S. Chaine
- Station d´Ecologie Théorique et Expérimentale du Centre National de la Recerche Scientifique (UAR2029), Moulis09200, France
| | - Theadora A. Block
- Research Department, National Headquarters, Canine Companions for Independence, Santa Rosa, CA95407
| | - Daizaburo Shizuka
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE68588
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17
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Wang G, Peng W, Zhang L. Estimate of population density and diagnosis of main factors of spatial heterogeneity in the metropolitan scale, western China. Heliyon 2023; 9:e16285. [PMID: 37292294 PMCID: PMC10246348 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2022] [Revised: 05/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023] Open
Abstract
We estimated the population density and quantified its characteristics using remote sensing, census data, and Geographic Information System (GIS). The interactive influence of these factors on population density was quantified based on geographic detectors to identify the differentiation mechanisms in the Chengdu metropolitan area of China. We identified the key factors that contribute to population density growth. The models used to simulate population density had the highest R2 values (>0.899). Population density tended to increase with time, with a multicentre spatial agglomeration pattern; the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution tended to move from the southeast to the northwest. Industry proportions, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land use, distance to urban centers or construction land, and GDP per capita can satisfactorily explain population density changes. The combined impact of these elements on population density variation exhibited mutual and non-linear strengthening, with the mutual effect of the two elements intensifying the impact of each individual element. Our study identified the key driving forces that contribute to the differentiation of population density, which can provide valuable support for the development of effective regional and targeted population planning guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guangjie Wang
- The Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
- Key Lab of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
| | - Wenfu Peng
- The Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
- Key Lab of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
| | - Lindan Zhang
- The Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
- Key Lab of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, 610068, PR China
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18
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Luca M, Campedelli GM, Centellegher S, Tizzoni M, Lepri B. Crime, inequality and public health: a survey of emerging trends in urban data science. Front Big Data 2023; 6:1124526. [PMID: 37303974 PMCID: PMC10248183 DOI: 10.3389/fdata.2023.1124526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/10/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Urban agglomerations are constantly and rapidly evolving ecosystems, with globalization and increasing urbanization posing new challenges in sustainable urban development well summarized in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The advent of the digital age generated by modern alternative data sources provides new tools to tackle these challenges with spatio-temporal scales that were previously unavailable with census statistics. In this review, we present how new digital data sources are employed to provide data-driven insights to study and track (i) urban crime and public safety; (ii) socioeconomic inequalities and segregation; and (iii) public health, with a particular focus on the city scale.
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Affiliation(s)
- Massimiliano Luca
- Mobile and Social Computing Lab, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
- Faculty of Computer Science, Free University of Bolzano, Bolzano, Italy
| | | | | | - Michele Tizzoni
- Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | - Bruno Lepri
- Mobile and Social Computing Lab, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
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19
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Reimann L, Jones B, Bieker N, Wolff C, Aerts JCJH, Vafeidis AT. Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2630. [PMID: 37149629 PMCID: PMC10164174 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38278-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lena Reimann
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany.
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, 135 E 22nd St, New York City, NY, 10010, USA.
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Bryan Jones
- CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, 135 E 22nd St, New York City, NY, 10010, USA
| | - Nora Bieker
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Claudia Wolff
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
| | - Jeroen C J H Aerts
- Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1111, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Athanasios T Vafeidis
- Coastal Risks and Sea-level Rise Research Group, Department of Geography, Kiel University, Ludewig-Meyn-Straße 8, 24118, Kiel, Germany
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20
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Yang T, Yu N, Yang T, Hong T. How do urban socio-economic characteristics shape a city's social recovery? An empirical study of COVID-19 shocks in China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION : IJDRR 2023; 90:103643. [PMID: 37013155 PMCID: PMC10032062 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103643] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 03/14/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak significantly challenged the cities' abilities to recover from shocks, and cities' responses have widely differed. Understanding these disparate responses has been insufficient, especially from a social recovery perspective. In this study, we propose the concept of social recovery and develop a comprehensive perspective on how a city's socioeconomic characteristics affect it. The analytical framework is applied to 296 prefecture-level cities in China, with social recovery measured by the changes in intercity intensity between the pre-pandemic baseline (2019 Q1 and Q2) and the period in which the pandemic slightly abated (2020 Q1 and Q2) through anonymized location-based big data. The results indicate that the social recovery of Chinese cities during the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly spatially correlated. Cities with larger populations, a higher proportion of GDP in the secondary industry, higher road density or more adequate medical resources tend to recover socially better. Moreover, these municipal characteristics have significant spatial spillover effects. Specifically, city size, government intervention and industrial structure show negative spillover effects on neighboring areas while information dissemination efficiency, road density, and the number of community health services per capita have positive spillover. This study fills the knowledge gap regarding the different performances of cities when they face pandemic shocks. The assessment of a city's social recovery is an insight into the theoretical framework of vulnerability that aids in translating it into urban resilience. Hence our findings provide practice implications for China and beyond as the interest in urban-resilience development surges around the post-pandemic world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tinghui Yang
- School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, 13 Fayuan Street, Nangang District, Harbin, 150001, China
| | - Nannan Yu
- School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, 13 Fayuan Street, Nangang District, Harbin, 150001, China
| | - Tianren Yang
- Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Central/Western District, Hong Kong, 999077, China
| | - Tao Hong
- School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, 13 Fayuan Street, Nangang District, Harbin, 150001, China
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21
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Okmi M, Por LY, Ang TF, Al-Hussein W, Ku CS. A Systematic Review of Mobile Phone Data in Crime Applications: A Coherent Taxonomy Based on Data Types and Analysis Perspectives, Challenges, and Future Research Directions. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:4350. [PMID: 37177554 PMCID: PMC10181620 DOI: 10.3390/s23094350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Revised: 04/23/2023] [Accepted: 04/24/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Digital technologies have recently become more advanced, allowing for the development of social networking sites and applications. Despite these advancements, phone calls and text messages still make up the largest proportion of mobile data usage. It is possible to study human communication behaviors and mobility patterns using the useful information that mobile phone data provide. Specifically, the digital traces left by the large number of mobile devices provide important information that facilitates a deeper understanding of human behavior and mobility configurations for researchers in various fields, such as criminology, urban sensing, transportation planning, and healthcare. Mobile phone data record significant spatiotemporal (i.e., geospatial and time-related data) and communication (i.e., call) information. These can be used to achieve different research objectives and form the basis of various practical applications, including human mobility models based on spatiotemporal interactions, real-time identification of criminal activities, inference of friendship interactions, and density distribution estimation. The present research primarily reviews studies that have employed mobile phone data to investigate, assess, and predict human communication and mobility patterns in the context of crime prevention. These investigations have sought, for example, to detect suspicious activities, identify criminal networks, and predict crime, as well as understand human communication and mobility patterns in urban sensing applications. To achieve this, a systematic literature review was conducted on crime research studies that were published between 2014 and 2022 and listed in eight electronic databases. In this review, we evaluated the most advanced methods and techniques used in recent criminology applications based on mobile phone data and the benefits of using this information to predict crime and detect suspected criminals. The results of this literature review contribute to improving the existing understanding of where and how populations live and socialize and how to classify individuals based on their mobility patterns. The results show extraordinary growth in studies that utilized mobile phone data to study human mobility and movement patterns compared to studies that used the data to infer communication behaviors. This observation can be attributed to privacy concerns related to acquiring call detail records (CDRs). Additionally, most of the studies used census and survey data for data validation. The results show that social network analysis tools and techniques have been widely employed to detect criminal networks and urban communities. In addition, correlation analysis has been used to investigate spatial-temporal patterns of crime, and ambient population measures have a significant impact on crime rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed Okmi
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia (W.A.-H.)
- Department of Information Technology and Security, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
| | - Lip Yee Por
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia (W.A.-H.)
| | - Tan Fong Ang
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia (W.A.-H.)
| | - Ward Al-Hussein
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, Universiti Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia (W.A.-H.)
| | - Chin Soon Ku
- Department of Computer Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kampar 31900, Malaysia
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22
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Liu J, Tian T, Liu Y, Hu S, Li M. iTabNet: an improved neural network for tabular data and its application to predict socioeconomic and environmental attributes. Neural Comput Appl 2023. [DOI: 10.1007/s00521-023-08304-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/29/2023]
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23
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Zeng L, Liu C. Exploring Factors Affecting Urban Park Use from a Geospatial Perspective: A Big Data Study in Fuzhou, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:4237. [PMID: 36901248 PMCID: PMC10002407 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20054237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Promoting research on urban park use is important for developing the ecological and environmental health benefits of parks. This study proposes uniquely integrated methods combined with big data to measure urban park use. It combines comprehensive geographic detectors and multiscale geographically weighted regression from a geospatial perspective to quantify the individual and interactive effects of the parks' characteristics, accessibility, and surrounding environment features on weekday and weekend park use. The study also explores the degree of influence of spatial changes. The results indicate that the park-surrounding facilities and services factor contributed most to use, while its interaction effect with park service capacity had the greatest impact on park use. The interaction effects showed binary or nonlinear enhancement. This suggests that park use should be promoted within multiple dimensions. Many influencing factors had significant changes in the geographic space, suggesting that city-level park zoning construction should be adopted. Finally, park use was found to be affected by users' subjective preference on weekends and convenience factors on weekdays. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the influencing mechanisms of urban park use, which can help urban planners and policymakers formulate more specific policies to successfully manage and plan urban parks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liguo Zeng
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Quanzhou Normal University, Quanzhou 362000, China
| | - Chunqing Liu
- College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
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24
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Ground Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft Focusing on Multiple Risk Sources in Urban Environments. Processes (Basel) 2023. [DOI: 10.3390/pr11020542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/12/2023] Open
Abstract
This paper investigates the risk quantification for Unmanned Aircraft (UA) in urban environments, focusing on the safety of ground people. An assessment methodology is proposed to quantify the flying risk, which indicates the ground fatalities resulted from different potential risk sources. With the knowledge of UA’s specifications and ground environments, the flying risk of the target UA flying in the target area could be evaluated from the combination of results from independent assessment procedures focusing on multiple potential risk sources with specific safety metrics. A study case to assess the flying risk of the Talon and the DJI Inspire 2 flying in one piece of the region in Chengdu is presented. From the assessment result, the airspace management strategies for both Talon and DJI Inspires 2 could be easily developed to guarantee the safety of ground people, therefore, this risk quantification method could be a general tool to support decision-making in safety work.
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25
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Zhang Y, Wu S, Zhao Z, Yang X, Fang Z. An urban crowd flow model integrating geographic characteristics. Sci Rep 2023; 13:1695. [PMID: 36717687 PMCID: PMC9886992 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29000-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Predicting urban crowd flow spatial distributions plays a critical role in optimizing urban public safety and traffic congestion management. The spatial dependency between regions and the temporal dynamics of the local crowd flow are two important features in urban crowd flow prediction. However, few studies considered geographic characteristic in terms of spatial features. To fill this gap, we propose an urban crowd flow prediction model integrating geographic characteristics (FPM-geo). First, three geographic characteristics, proximity, functional similarity, and road network connectivity, are fused by a residual multigraph convolution network to model the spatial dependency relationship. Then, a long short-term memory network is applied as a framework to integrate both the temporal dynamic patterns of local crowd flow and the spatial dependency between regions. A 4-day mobile phone dataset validates the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing it with several widely used approaches. The result shows that the root mean square error decreases by 15.37% compared with those of the typical models with the prediction interval at the 15-min level. The prediction error increases with the crowd flow size in a local area. Moreover, the error reaches the top of the morning peak and the evening peak and slopes down to the bottom at night.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Zhang
- Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Sheng Wu
- Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China
- Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining &Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou, China
- Ministry of Education Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for Big Data Applications in Governments, Fuzhou, China
- The Digital Economy Alliance of Fujian, Fuzhou, China
| | - Zhiyuan Zhao
- Academy of Digital China (Fujian), Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, China.
- Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining &Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou, China.
- Ministry of Education Fujian Collaborative Innovation Center for Big Data Applications in Governments, Fuzhou, China.
- The Digital Economy Alliance of Fujian, Fuzhou, China.
| | - Xiping Yang
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, China
- Key Laboratory of Urban Land Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen, China
| | - Zhixiang Fang
- State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
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26
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Okmi M, Por LY, Ang TF, Ku CS. Mobile Phone Data: A Survey of Techniques, Features, and Applications. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:s23020908. [PMID: 36679703 PMCID: PMC9865984 DOI: 10.3390/s23020908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Revised: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2022] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Due to the rapid growth in the use of smartphones, the digital traces (e.g., mobile phone data, call detail records) left by the use of these devices have been widely employed to assess and predict human communication behaviors and mobility patterns in various disciplines and domains, such as urban sensing, epidemiology, public transportation, data protection, and criminology. These digital traces provide significant spatiotemporal (geospatial and time-related) data, revealing people's mobility patterns as well as communication (incoming and outgoing calls) data, revealing people's social networks and interactions. Thus, service providers collect smartphone data by recording the details of every user activity or interaction (e.g., making a phone call, sending a text message, or accessing the internet) done using a smartphone and storing these details on their databases. This paper surveys different methods and approaches for assessing and predicting human communication behaviors and mobility patterns from mobile phone data and differentiates them in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. It also gives information about spatial, temporal, and call characteristics that have been extracted from mobile phone data and used to model how people communicate and move. We survey mobile phone data research published between 2013 and 2021 from eight main databases, namely, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, MDPI, SAGE, Science Direct, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 148 studies were selected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed Okmi
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
- Department of Information Technology and Security, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia
| | - Lip Yee Por
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Tan Fong Ang
- Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia
| | - Chin Soon Ku
- Department of Computer Science, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, Kampar 31900, Malaysia
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27
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A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines. Sci Data 2023; 10:6. [PMID: 36596790 PMCID: PMC9809531 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01893-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing masks, physical distancing, lockdown, and travel restrictions. Because of their economic and logistical effects, tracking mobility changes during quarantines is crucial in assessing their efficacy and predicting the virus spread. Unlike many other heavily affected countries, Chile implemented quarantines at a more localized level, shutting down small administrative zones, rather than the whole country or large regions. Given the non-obvious effects of these localized quarantines, tracking mobility becomes even more critical in Chile. To assess the impact on human mobility of the localized quarantines, we analyze a mobile phone dataset made available by Telefónica Chile, which comprises 31 billion eXtended Detail Records and 5.4 million users covering the period February 26th to September 20th, 2020. From these records, we derive three epidemiologically relevant metrics describing the mobility within and between comunas. The datasets made available may be useful to understand the effect of localized quarantines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.
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28
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Yin J, Chi G. A tale of three cities: uncovering human-urban interactions with geographic-context aware social media data. URBAN INFORMATICS 2022; 1:20. [PMID: 36569986 PMCID: PMC9760538 DOI: 10.1007/s44212-022-00020-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2022] [Revised: 11/16/2022] [Accepted: 11/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Seeking spatiotemporal patterns about how citizens interact with the urban space is critical for understanding how cities function. Such interactions were studied in various forms focusing on patterns of people's presence, action, and transition in the urban environment, which are defined as human-urban interactions in this paper. Using human activity datasets that utilize mobile positioning technology for tracking the locations and movements of individuals, researchers developed stochastic models to uncover preferential return behaviors and recurrent transitional activity structures in human-urban interactions. Ad-hoc heuristics and spatial clustering methods were applied to derive meaningful activity places in those studies. However, the lack of semantic meaning in the recorded locations makes it difficult to examine the details about how people interact with different activity places. In this study, we utilized geographic context-aware Twitter data to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of people's interactions with their activity places in different urban settings. To test consistency of our findings, we used geo-located tweets to derive the activity places in Twitter users' location histories over three major U.S. metropolitan areas: Greater Boston Area, Chicago, and San Diego, where the geographic context of each location was inferred from its closest land use parcel. The results showed striking spatial and temporal similarities in Twitter users' interactions with their activity places among the three cities. By using entropy-based predictability measures, this study not only confirmed the preferential return behaviors as people tend to revisit a few highly frequented places but also revealed detailed characteristics of those activity places.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junjun Yin
- Social Science Research Institute and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA
| | - Guangqing Chi
- Social Science Research Institute and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology and Education, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 USA
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29
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Chen H, Xu Z, Liu Y, Huang Y, Yang F. Urban Flood Risk Assessment Based on Dynamic Population Distribution and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:16406. [PMID: 36554287 PMCID: PMC9778856 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192416406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2022] [Revised: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 12/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Floods are one of the most common natural disasters that can cause considerable economic damage and loss of life in many regions of the world. Urban flood risk assessment is important for urban flood control, disaster reduction, and risk management. In this study, a novel approach for assessing urban flood risk was proposed based on the dynamic population distribution, improved entropy weight method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the principle of maximum membership, and the spatial distribution of flood risk in four different sessions or daily time segments (TS1-TS4) in the northern part of the Shenzhen River Basin (China) was assessed using geographic information system technology. Results indicated that risk levels varied with population movement. The areas of highest risk were largest in TS1 and TS3, accounting for 7.03% and 7.07% of the total area, respectively. The areas of higher risk were largest in TS2 and TS4, accounting for 4.54% and 4.64% of the total area, respectively. The findings of this study could provide a theoretical basis for assessing urban flood risk management measures in Shenzhen (and even throughout China), and a scientific basis for development of disaster prevention and reduction strategies by flood control departments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Chen
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Zongxue Xu
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yang Liu
- College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yixuan Huang
- College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Fang Yang
- The Pear River Hydraulic Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510000, China
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30
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Tatem AJ. Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response. Epidemics 2022; 41:100641. [PMID: 36228440 PMCID: PMC9534780 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100641] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Revised: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, UK
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31
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Chamberlain HR, Lazar AN, Tatem AJ. High-resolution estimates of social distancing feasibility, mapped for urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Sci Data 2022; 9:711. [PMCID: PMC9673897 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01799-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractSocial distancing has been widely-implemented as a public health measure during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite widespread application of social distancing guidance, the feasibility of people adhering to such guidance varies in different settings, influenced by population density, the built environment and a range of socio-economic factors. Social distancing constraints however have only been identified and mapped for limited areas. Here, we present an ease of social distancing index, integrating metrics on urban form and population density derived from new multi-country building footprint datasets and gridded population estimates. The index dataset provides estimates of social distancing feasibility, mapped at high-resolution for urban areas across 50 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
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32
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Chen M, Xian Y, Huang Y, Zhang X, Hu M, Guo S, Chen L, Liang L. Fine-scale population spatialization data of China in 2018 based on real location-based big data. Sci Data 2022; 9:624. [PMID: 36241886 PMCID: PMC9568591 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01740-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Accepted: 09/23/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Accurate location-based big data has a high resolution and a direct interaction with human activities, allowing for fine-scale population spatial data to be realized. We take the average of Tencent user location big data as a measure of ambient population. The county-level statistical population data in 2018 was used as the assigned input data. The log linear spatially weighted regression model was used to establish the relationship between location data and statistical data to allocate the latter to a 0.01° grid, and the ambient population data of mainland China was obtained. Extracting street-level (lower than county-level) statistics for accuracy testing, we found that POP2018 has the best fit with the actual permanent population (R2 = 0.91), and the error is the smallest (MSEPOP2018 = 22.48
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingxing Chen
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yue Xian
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yaohuan Huang
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoping Zhang
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Maogui Hu
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China.
| | - Shasha Guo
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- Institute of Urban and Rural Planning, China Academy of Building Research, Beijing, China
| | - Liangkan Chen
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Longwu Liang
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China
- College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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33
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Wang X, Meng X, Long Y. Projecting 1 km-grid population distributions from 2020 to 2100 globally under shared socioeconomic pathways. Sci Data 2022; 9:563. [PMID: 36097271 PMCID: PMC9466344 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-022-01675-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2022] [Accepted: 09/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatially explicit population grid can play an important role in climate change, resource management, sustainable development and other fields. Several gridded datasets already exist, but global data, especially high-resolution data on future populations are largely lacking. Based on the WorldPop dataset, we present a global gridded population dataset covering 248 countries or areas at 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1 km) spatial resolution with 5-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 by implementing Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Our dataset is quantitatively consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs) national population. The spatially explicit population dataset we predicted in this research is validated by comparing it with the WorldPop dataset both at the sub-national and grid level. 3569 provinces (almost all provinces on the globe) and more than 480 thousand grids are taken into verification, and the results show that our dataset can serve as an input for predictive research in various fields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinyu Wang
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Xiangfeng Meng
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Ying Long
- School of Architecture and Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Key Laboratory of Eco Planning & Green Building, Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
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34
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Chamberlain HR, Macharia PM, Tatem AJ. Mapping urban physical distancing constraints, sub-Saharan Africa: a case study from Kenya. Bull World Health Organ 2022; 100:562-569. [PMID: 36062248 PMCID: PMC9421546 DOI: 10.2471/blt.21.287572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Revised: 05/31/2022] [Accepted: 06/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
With the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, public health measures such as physical distancing were recommended to reduce transmission of the virus causing the disease. However, the same approach in all areas, regardless of context, may lead to measures being of limited effectiveness and having unforeseen negative consequences, such as loss of livelihoods and food insecurity. A prerequisite to planning and implementing effective, context-appropriate measures to slow community transmission is an understanding of any constraints, such as the locations where physical distancing would not be possible. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, we outline and discuss challenges that are faced by residents of urban informal settlements in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We describe how new geospatial data sets can be integrated to provide more detailed information about local constraints on physical distancing and can inform planning of alternative ways to reduce transmission of COVID-19 between people. We include a case study for Nairobi County, Kenya, with mapped outputs which illustrate the intra-urban variation in the feasibility of physical distancing and the expected difficulty for residents of many informal settlement areas. Our examples demonstrate the potential of new geospatial data sets to provide insights and support to policy-making for public health measures, including COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather R Chamberlain
- WorldPop, Geography and Environmental Science, Building 39, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, England
| | - Peter M Macharia
- Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Andrew J Tatem
- WorldPop, Geography and Environmental Science, Building 39, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, England
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35
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Liu C, Yang Y, Chen B, Cui T, Shang F, Fan J, Li R. Revealing spatiotemporal interaction patterns behind complex cities. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2022; 32:081105. [PMID: 36049958 DOI: 10.1063/5.0098132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Cities are typical dynamic complex systems that connect people and facilitate interactions. Revealing general collective patterns behind spatiotemporal interactions between residents is crucial for various urban studies, of which we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding. Massive cellphone data enable us to construct interaction networks based on spatiotemporal co-occurrence of individuals. The rank-size distributions of dynamic population of locations in all unit time windows are stable, although people are almost constantly moving in cities and hot-spots that attract people are changing over time in a day. A larger city is of a stronger heterogeneity as indicated by a larger scaling exponent. After aggregating spatiotemporal interaction networks over consecutive time windows, we reveal a switching behavior of cities between two states. During the "active" state, the whole city is concentrated in fewer larger communities, while in the "inactive" state, people are scattered in smaller communities. Above discoveries are universal over three cities across continents. In addition, a city stays in an active state for a longer time when its population grows larger. Spatiotemporal interaction segregation can be well approximated by residential patterns only in smaller cities. In addition, we propose a temporal-population-weighted-opportunity model by integrating a time-dependent departure probability to make dynamic predictions on human mobility, which can reasonably well explain the observed patterns of spatiotemporal interactions in cities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenxin Liu
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Yu Yang
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Bingsheng Chen
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Tianyu Cui
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Fan Shang
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Jingfang Fan
- School of Systems Science/Institute of Nonequilibrium Systems, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Ruiqi Li
- UrbanNet Lab, College of Information Science and Technology, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
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36
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Zhong L, Zhou Y, Gao S, Yu Z, Ma Z, Li X, Yue Y, Xia J. COVID-19 lockdown introduces human mobility pattern changes for both Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area and the San Francisco bay area. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION : ITC JOURNAL 2022; 112:102848. [PMID: 35757462 PMCID: PMC9212878 DOI: 10.1016/j.jag.2022.102848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Revised: 04/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, various countries have sought to control COVID-19 transmission by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Restricting population mobility, by introducing social distancing, is one of the most widely used non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although similar population mobility restriction interventions were introduced, their impacts on COVID-19 transmission are often inconsistent across different regions and different time periods. These differences may provide critical information for tailoring COVID-19 control strategies. In this paper, anonymized high spatiotemporal resolution mobile-phone location data were employed to empirically analyze and quantify the impact of lockdowns on population mobility. Both the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China and the San Francisco Bay Area (SBA) in the United States were studied. In response to the lockdowns, a general reduction in population mobility was observed, but the structural changes in mobility are very different between the two bays: 1) GBA mobility decreased by approximately 74.0-80.1% while the decrease of SBA was about 25.0-42.1%; 2) compared to SBA, the GBA had smoother volatility in daily volume during the lockdown. The volatility change indexes for GBA and SBA were 2.55% and 7.52%, respectively; 3) the effect of lockdown on short- to long-distance mobility was similar in GBA while the medium- and long-distance impact was more pronounced in SBA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leiyang Zhong
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Ying Zhou
- College of Public Health, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Song Gao
- Geospatial Data Science Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Zhaoyang Yu
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Zhifeng Ma
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Xiaoming Li
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Yang Yue
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
| | - Jizhe Xia
- Guangdong Key Laboratory of Urban Informatics, and Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Spatial Smart Sensing and Service, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
- Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Great Bay Area, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China
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37
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Zhou Y, Xue L, Shi Z, Wu L, Fan J. Measuring Housing Vitality from Multi-Source Big Data and Machine Learning. J Am Stat Assoc 2022. [DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2022.2096038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yang Zhou
- Institute for Big Data, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- MOE Laboratory for National Development and Intelligent Governance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Lirong Xue
- Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, NJ
| | - Zhengyu Shi
- School of Data Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Libo Wu
- Institute for Big Data, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- MOE Laboratory for National Development and Intelligent Governance, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Jianqing Fan
- Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Princeton University, NJ
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38
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Tatem AJ. Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response. Epidemics 2022; 40:100597. [PMID: 35749928 PMCID: PMC9212890 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Tatem
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, UK
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39
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Yin J, Gao Y, Chi G. An Evaluation of Geo-located Twitter Data for Measuring Human Migration. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE : IJGIS 2022; 36:1830-1852. [PMID: 36643847 PMCID: PMC9837860 DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2022.2075878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2021] [Revised: 05/05/2022] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
This study evaluates the spatial patterns of flows generated from geo-located Twitter data to measure human migration. Using geo-located tweets continuously collected in the U.S. from 2013 to 2015, we identified Twitter users who migrated per changes in county-of-residence every two years and compared the Twitter-estimated county-to-county migration flows with the ones from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS). To evaluate the spatial patterns of Twitter migration flows when representing the IRS counterparts, we developed a normalized difference representation index to visualize and identify those counties of over-/under-representations in the Twitter estimates. Further, we applied a multidimensional spatial scan statistic approach based on a Poisson process model to detect pairs of origin and destination regions where the over-/under-representativeness occurred. The results suggest that Twitter migration flows tend to under-represent the IRS estimates in regions with a large population and over-represent them in metropolitan regions adjacent to tourist attractions. This study demonstrated that geo-located Twitter data could be a sound statistical proxy for measuring human migration. Given that the spatial patterns of Twitter-estimated migration flows vary significantly across the geographic space, related studies will benefit from our approach by identifying those regions where data calibration is necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junjun Yin
- Social Science Research Institute and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
| | - Yizhao Gao
- CyberGIS Center for Advanced Digital and Spatial Studies, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
- Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802, USA
| | - Guangqing Chi
- Social Science Research Institute and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
- Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology and Education, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA
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40
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Tai XH, Mehra S, Blumenstock JE. Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan. Nat Hum Behav 2022; 6:624-634. [PMID: 35551253 PMCID: PMC9130096 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01336-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Nearly 50 million people globally have been internally displaced due to conflict, persecution and human rights violations. However, the study of internally displaced persons—and the design of policies to assist them—is complicated by the fact that these people are often underrepresented in surveys and official statistics. We develop an approach to measure the impact of violence on internal displacement using anonymized high-frequency mobile phone data. We use this approach to quantify the short- and long-term impacts of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan, a country that has experienced decades of conflict. Our results highlight how displacement depends on the nature of violence. High-casualty events, and violence involving the Islamic State, cause the most displacement. Provincial capitals act as magnets for people fleeing violence in outlying areas. Our work illustrates the potential for non-traditional data sources to facilitate research and policymaking in conflict settings. Blumenstock et al. find that high-frequency mobile phone data can be used to precisely measure the impact of violence on internal displacement. Using data from Afghanistan, they show how patterns of displacement depend on the nature of violence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao Hui Tai
- School of Information, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Shikhar Mehra
- School of Information, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
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41
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Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement. Nat Hum Behav 2022; 6:620-621. [PMID: 35551254 DOI: 10.1038/s41562-022-01337-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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42
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A Population Spatialization Model at the Building Scale Using Random Forest. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14081811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Population spatialization reveals the distribution and quantity of the population in geographic space with gridded population maps. Fine-scale population spatialization is essential for urbanization and disaster prevention. Previous approaches have used remotely sensed imagery to disaggregate census data, but this approach has limitations. For example, large-scale population censuses cannot be conducted in underdeveloped countries or regions, and remote sensing data lack semantic information indicating the different human activities occurring in a precise geographic location. Geospatial big data and machine learning provide new fine-scale population distribution mapping methods. In this paper, 30 features are extracted using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Then, a building-scale population estimation model is trained by a random forest (RF) regression algorithm. The results show that 91% of the buildings in Lin’an District have absolute error values of less than six compared with the actual population data. In a comparison with a multiple linear (ML) regression model, the mean absolute errors of the RF and ML models are 2.52 and 3.21, respectively, the root mean squared errors are 8.2 and 9.8, and the R2 values are 0.44 and 0.18. The RF model performs better at building-scale population estimation using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Future work will improve the model accuracy in densely populated areas.
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43
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Exploring the Relationship between the Spatial Distribution of Different Age Populations and Points of Interest (POI) in China. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi11040215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Population spatialization data is crucial to conducting scientific studies of coupled human–environment systems. Although significant progress has been made in population spatialization, the spatialization of different age populations is still weak. POI data with rich information have great potential to simulate the spatial distribution of different age populations, but the relationship between spatial distributions of POI and different age populations is still unclear, and whether it can be used as an auxiliary variable for the different age population spatialization remains to be explored. Therefore, this study collected and sorted out the number of different age populations and POIs in 2846 county-level administrative units of the Chinese mainland in 2010, divided the research data by region and city size, and explored the relationship between the different age populations and POIs. We found that there is a complex relationship between POI and different age populations. Firstly, there are positive, moderate-to-strong linear correlations between POI and population indicators. Secondly, POI has a different explanatory power for different age populations, and it has a higher explanatory power for the young and middle-aged population than the child and old population. Thirdly, the explanatory power of POI to different age populations is positively correlated with the urban economic development level. Finally, a small number of a certain kinds of POIs can be used to effectively simulate the spatial distributions of different age populations, which can improve the efficiency of obtaining spatialization data of different age populations and greatly save on costs. The study can provide data support for the precise spatialization of different age populations and inspire the spatialization of the other population attributes by POI in the future.
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44
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Development of Big Data-Analysis Pipeline for Mobile Phone Data with Mobipack and Spatial Enhancement. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi11030196] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Frequent and granular population data are essential for decision making. Further-more, for progress monitoring towards achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs), data availability at global scales as well as at different disaggregated levels is required. The high population coverage of mobile cellular signals has been accelerating the generation of large-scale spatiotemporal data such as call detail record (CDR) data. This has enabled resource-scarce countries to collect digital footprints at scales and resolutions that would otherwise be impossible to achieve solely through traditional surveys. However, using such data requires multiple processes, algorithms, and considerable effort. This paper proposes a big data-analysis pipeline built exclusively on an open-source framework with our spatial enhancement library and a proposed open-source mobility analysis package called Mobipack. Mobipack consists of useful modules for mobility analysis, including data anonymization, origin–destination extraction, trip extraction, zone analysis, route interpolation, and a set of mobility indicators. Several implemented use cases are presented to demonstrate the advantages and usefulness of the proposed system. In addition, we explain how a large-scale data platform that requires efficient resource allocation can be con-structed for managing data as well as how it can be used and maintained in a sustainable manner. The platform can further help to enhance the capacity of CDR data analysis, which usually requires a specific skill set and is time-consuming to implement from scratch. The proposed system is suited for baseline processing and the effective handling of CDR data; thus, it allows for improved support and on-time preparation.
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45
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Xiong Q, Liu Y, Xing L, Wang L, Ding Y, Liu Y. Measuring spatio-temporal disparity of location-based accessibility to emergency medical services. Health Place 2022; 74:102766. [DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2022.102766] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2021] [Revised: 02/02/2022] [Accepted: 02/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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46
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Equity in Health-Seeking Behavior of Groups Using Different Transportations. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19052765. [PMID: 35270458 PMCID: PMC8910309 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19052765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
The equity of health-seeking behaviors of groups using different transportations is an important metric for health outcome disparities among them. Recently, smart card data and taxi trajectory data have been used extensively but separately to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of health-seeking behavior and healthcare accessibility. However, the differences in health-seeking behavior among groups by different transportations have hitherto received scant attention from scholars. To fill the gap, this paper aimed to investigate the equity in health-seeking behavior of groups using different transportations. With sets of spatial and temporal constraints, we first extracted health-seeking behaviors by bus and taxi from smart card data and taxi trajectory data from Beijing during 13–17 April 2015. Then, health-seeking behaviors of groups by bus and taxi were compared regarding the coverage of hospital service areas, time efficiency to seek healthcare, and transportation access. The results indicated that there are inequities in groups using different travel modes to seek healthcare regarding the coverage of hospital service areas, time efficiency to seek healthcare, and transportation access. They provide some suggestions for mode-specific interventions to narrow health disparity, which might be more efficient than a one-size-fits-all intervention.
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47
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Zhao Y, Wang N, Luo Y, He H, Wu L, Wang H, Wang Q, Wu J. Quantification of ecosystem services supply-demand and the impact of demographic change on cultural services in Shenzhen, China. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 304:114280. [PMID: 35021588 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2021] [Revised: 10/31/2021] [Accepted: 12/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies on the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) mainly focused on inter-annual changes, and no studies have explored the impact of demographic change on the ES supply and demand on fine-grained time scales. Thus, taking Shenzhen as an example, the status of ES supply and demand, as well as diurnal population changes and their impacts on cultural services were analyzed at different time periods using mobile phone signaling data, ecological supply-demand ratio (ESDR), Geo-Informatic Tupu, InVEST model and buffer zone. The results showed that the population declines successively on workdays, weekends and holidays, and that the daytime population is greater than the nighttime. Water yield services can basically meet the demand in terms of quantity and spatial distribution, however, carbon sequestration and cultural services showed the opposite results. The main type of ESDR changes in cultural services are the mutual conversion of deficit and balance, and these are concentrated in areas with high forest coverage and small populations, but frequent population changes. In addition, when the fixed population is too large, the use of time-varying population data will conceal the impact of demographic changes on ES supply and demand, and other data are needed for auxiliary analysis. Overall, this study provides a new research perspective for the ES supply and demand and can provide a theoretical basis for refined sustainable urban management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuhao Zhao
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Na Wang
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen, 518034, China; Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Real Estate Information Center, Shenzhen, 518040, China
| | - Yuhang Luo
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Haishan He
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China
| | - Lei Wu
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Hongliang Wang
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory of Urban Resources Monitoring and Simulation, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shenzhen, 518034, China; Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Real Estate Information Center, Shenzhen, 518040, China; School of Public Administration, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot, 010070, China
| | - Qingtao Wang
- School of Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, China
| | - Jiansheng Wu
- Key Laboratory for Urban Habitat Environmental Science and Technology, School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
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48
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Bergroth C, Järv O, Tenkanen H, Manninen M, Toivonen T. A 24-hour population distribution dataset based on mobile phone data from Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland. Sci Data 2022; 9:39. [PMID: 35121755 PMCID: PMC8816898 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-01113-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
In this article, we present temporally dynamic population distribution data from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland, at the level of 250 m by 250 m statistical grid cells. An hourly population distribution dataset is provided for regular workdays (Mon – Thu), Saturdays and Sundays. The data are based on aggregated mobile phone data collected by the biggest mobile network operator in Finland. Mobile phone data are assigned to statistical grid cells using an advanced dasymetric interpolation method based on ancillary data about land cover, buildings and a time use survey. The dataset is validated by comparing population register data from Statistics Finland for night hours and a daytime workplace registry. The resulting 24-hour population data can be used to reveal the temporal dynamics of the city, and examine population variations relevant to spatial accessibility analyses, crisis management, planning and beyond. Measurement(s) | population distribution | Technology Type(s) | mobile phone • digital curation | Factor Type(s) | geographic location • hour of the day • day of the week | Sample Characteristic - Environment | city | Sample Characteristic - Location | Capital Region • Helsinki |
Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.17168978
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Bergroth
- Unit of Urban Research and Statistics, City of Helsinki, Siltasaarenkatu 18-20 A, Helsinki, FI-00530, Finland.,Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Olle Järv
- Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.,Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) and Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria), University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 3, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Henrikki Tenkanen
- Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.,Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, Otakaari 4, FI-00076, Espoo, Finland.,Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London, United Kingdom
| | - Matti Manninen
- Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.,Elisa Corporation, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Tuuli Toivonen
- Digital Geography Lab, Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Hällströmin katu 2, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland. .,Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) and Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria), University of Helsinki, Yliopistonkatu 3, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
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49
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Sweetapple C, Melville-Shreeve P, Chen AS, Grimsley JMS, Bunce JT, Gaze W, Fielding S, Wade MJ. Building knowledge of university campus population dynamics to enhance near-to-source sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 detection. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150406. [PMID: 34571237 PMCID: PMC8450208 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150406] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2021] [Revised: 09/11/2021] [Accepted: 09/13/2021] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented for monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 during the global COVID-19 pandemic, and near-to-source monitoring is of particular interest for outbreak management in discrete populations. However, variation in population size poses a challenge to the triggering of public health interventions using wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. This is especially important for near-to-source sites that are subject to significant daily variability in upstream populations. Focusing on a university campus in England, this study investigates methods to account for variation in upstream populations at a site with highly transient footfall and provides a better understanding of the impact of variable populations on the SARS-CoV-2 trends provided by wastewater-based epidemiology. The potential for complementary data to help direct response activities within the near-to-source population is also explored, and potential concerns arising due to the presence of heavily diluted samples during wet weather are addressed. Using wastewater biomarkers, it is demonstrated that population normalisation can reveal significant differences between days where SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are very similar. Confidence in the trends identified is strongest when samples are collected during dry weather periods; however, wet weather samples can still provide valuable information. It is also shown that building-level occupancy estimates based on complementary data aid identification of potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 and can enable targeted actions to be taken to identify and manage potential sources of pathogen transmission in localised communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris Sweetapple
- Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, United Kingdom; Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Melville-Shreeve
- Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
| | - Albert S Chen
- Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom
| | - Jasmine M S Grimsley
- Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, United Kingdom
| | - Joshua T Bunce
- Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, United Kingdom; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Seacole Building, London SW1P 4DF, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, United Kingdom
| | - William Gaze
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, United Kingdom
| | - Sean Fielding
- Innovation Centre, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RN, United Kingdom
| | - Matthew J Wade
- Joint Biosecurity Centre, Department of Health and Social Care, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, United Kingdom.
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50
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Voukelatou V, Miliou I, Giannotti F, Pappalardo L. Understanding peace through the world news. EPJ DATA SCIENCE 2022; 11:2. [PMID: 35079561 PMCID: PMC8777429 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/26/2021] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vasiliki Voukelatou
- Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
| | - Ioanna Miliou
- Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Fosca Giannotti
- Scuola Normale Superiore, Pisa, Italy
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
| | - Luca Pappalardo
- Institute of Information Science and Technologies, National Research Council (ISTI-CNR), Pisa, Italy
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