Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data

Current state and future perspectives on de facto population markers for normalization in wastewater-based epidemiology: A systematic literature review

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) and wastewater surveillance have become a valuable complementary data source to collect information on community-wide exposure through the measurement of human biomarkers in influent wastewater (IWW). In WBE, normalization of data with the de facto population that corresponds to a wastewater sample is crucial for a correct interpretation of spatio-temporal trends in exposure and consumption patterns. However, knowledge gaps remain in identifying and validating suitable de facto population biomarkers (PBs) for refinement of WBE back-estimations. WBE studies that apply de facto PBs (including hydrochemical parameters, utility consumption data sources, endo- and exogenous chemicals, biological biomarkers and signalling records) for relative trend analysis and absolute population size estimation were systematically reviewed from three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS) according to the PRISMA guidelines. We included in this review 81 publications that accounted for daily variations in population sizes by applying de facto population normalization. To date, a wide range of PBs have been proposed for de facto population normalization, complicating the comparability of normalized measurements across WBE studies. Additionally, the validation of potential PBs is complicated by the absence of an ideal external validator, magnifying the overall uncertainty for population normalization in WBE. Therefore, this review proposes a conceptual tier-based cross-validation approach for identifying and validating de facto PBs to guide their integration for i) relative trend analysis, and ii) absolute population size estimation. Furthermore, this review also provides a detailed evaluation of the uncertainty observed when comparing different de jure and de facto population estimation approaches. This study shows that their percentual differences can range up to ±200 %, with some exceptions showing even larger variations. This review underscores the need for collaboration among WBE researchers to further streamline the application of de facto population normalization and to evaluate the robustness of different PBs in different socio-demographic communities.

Open e-commerce 1.0, five years of crowdsourced U.S. Amazon purchase histories with user demographics

This is a first-of-its-kind dataset containing detailed purchase histories from 5027 U.S. Amazon.com consumers, spanning 2018 through 2022, with more than 1.8 million purchases. Consumer spending data are customarily collected through government surveys to produce public datasets and statistics, which serve public agencies and researchers. Companies now collect similar data through consumers' use of digital platforms at rates superseding data collection by public agencies. We published this dataset in an effort towards democratizing access to rich data sources routinely used by companies. The data were crowdsourced through an online survey and shared with participants' informed consent. Data columns include order date, product code, title, price, quantity, and shipping address state. Each purchase history is linked to survey data with information about participants' demographics, lifestyle, and health. We validate the dataset by showing expenditure correlates with public Amazon sales data (Pearson r = 0.978, p < 0.001) and conduct analyses of specific product categories, demonstrating expected seasonal trends and strong relationships to other public datasets.

Mapping specific groundwater nitrate concentrations from spatial data using machine learning: A case study of chongqing, China

Groundwater resources is not only important essential water resources but also imperative connectors within the intricate framework of the ecological environment. High nitrate concentrations in groundwater can exerting adverse impacts on human health. It is imperative to accurately delineate the distribution characteristics of groundwater nitrate concentrations. Four different machine learning models (Gradient Boosting Regression (GB), Random Forest Regression (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting Regression (XG) and Adaptive Boosting Regression (AD)) which combine spatial environmental data and different radius contributing area was developed to predict the distribution of nitrate concentration in groundwater. The models use 595 groundwater samples and included topography, remote sensing, hydrogeological and hydrological, climate, nitrate input, and socio-economic predictor. Gradient Boosting Regression model outperforms the other models (R2 = 0.627, MAE = 0.529, RMSE = 0.705, PICP = 0.924 for test dataset) under 500 m radius contributing area. A high-resolution (1 km) groundwater nitrate concentration distribution map reveal in the majority of the study area, groundwater nitrate concentrations are below 1 mg/L and high nitrate concentration (>10 mg/L) proportion in southeast, northeast and central main urban area karst valley regions is 1.89%, 0.91%, and 0.38% respectively. In study area, hydrogeological conditions, soil parameters, nitrogen input factors, and percentage of arable land are among the most influential explanatory factors. This work, serving as the inaugural application of utilizing effective spatial methods for predicting groundwater nitrate concentrations in Chongqing city, furnish decision-making support for the prevention and control of groundwater pollution, particularly in areas primarily dependent on groundwater for water supply and holds profound significance as a milestone achievement.

Towards more realistic measures of accessibility to emergency departments in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Assuring that emergency health care (EHC) is accessible is a key objective for health care planners. Conventional accessibility analysis commonly relies on resident population data. However, the allocation of resources based on stationary population data may lead to erroneous assumptions of population accessibility to EHC.

METHOD

Therefore, in this paper, we calculate population accessibility to emergency departments in Sweden with a geographical information system based network analysis. Utilizing static population data and dynamic population data, we investigate spatiotemporal patterns of how static population data over- or underestimates population sizes derived from temporally dynamic population data.

RESULTS

Our findings show that conventional measures of population accessibility tend to underestimate population sizes particularly in rural areas and in smaller ED's catchment areas compared to urban, larger ED's-especially during vacation time in the summer.

CONCLUSIONS

Planning based on static population data may thus lead to inequitable distributions of resources. This study is motivated in light of the ongoing centralization of ED's in Sweden, which largely depends on population sizes in ED's catchment areas.

A simulated 'sandbox' for exploring the modifiable areal unit problem in aggregation and disaggregation

We present a spatial testbed of simulated boundary data based on a set of very high-resolution census-based areal units surrounding Guadalajara, Mexico. From these input areal units, we simulated 10 levels of spatial resolutions, ranging from levels with 5,515-52,388 units and 100 simulated zonal configurations for each level - totalling 1,000 simulated sets of areal units. These data facilitate interrogating various realizations of the data and the effects of the spatial coarseness and zonal configurations, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), on applications such as model training, model prediction, disaggregation, and aggregation processes. Further, these data can facilitate the production of spatially explicit, non-parametric estimates of confidence intervals via bootstrapping. We provide a pre-processed version of these 1,000 simulated sets of areal units, meta- and summary data to assist in their use, and a code notebook with the means to alter and/or reproduce these data.

Heat exposure assessment based on high-resolution spatio-temporal data of population dynamics and temperature variations

Urban heat waves pose a significant risk to the health and safety of city dwellers, with urbanization potentially amplifying the health impact of extreme heat. Accurate assessments of population heat exposure hinge on the interplay between temperature, population spatial dynamics, and the epidemiological effects of temperature on health. Yet, many past studies have over-simplified the matter by assuming static populations, leading to substantial inaccuracies in heat exposure assessments. To address these issues, this study integrates dynamic population data, fluctuating temperature, and the exposure-response relationship between temperature and health to construct an advanced heat exposure assessment framework predicated on a population dynamic model. We analyzed urban heat island characteristics, population dynamics, and heat exposure during heat wave conditions in Beijing, a major city in China. Our findings highlight significant intra-day population movement between urban and suburban areas during heat wave conditions, with spatial population flow patterns showing clear scale-dependent characteristics. These population flow dynamics intensify heat exposure levels, and the disparity between dynamic population-weighted temperature and average temperature is most pronounced at night. Our research provides a more comprehensive understanding of real urban population heat exposure levels and can furnish city administrators with more scientifically rigorous evidence.

Spatial patterns in pollution discharges from livestock and poultry farm and the linkage between manure nutrients load and the carrying capacity of croplands in China

The rapid development of livestock and poultry farming in China has resulted in an increasing threat of water pollution. In particular, mitigating livestock-related pollutant discharges is a key issue for environmental sustainability, especially for inland surface water bodies. In order to ensure the effective control of pollution and the efficient utilization management of livestock manure, spatially explicit surveys of pollutant generation and discharge from the livestock sector must be performed. In the present study, we estimated the grid cell-level distributions in the generation and discharge of four typical pollutants (chemical oxygen demand, ammonium nitrogen, total nitrogen and total phosphorus) from the livestock sector across the country with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds. The distributions were estimated using the most recent pollution source census data and multi-sourced ancillary materials by a dasymetric mapping approach. We further investigated the feasibility of the resource utilization of livestock manure by comparing manure-source nutrients with the carrying capacity of adjacent croplands. Our results show that low-intensive farming generated and discharged the majority of livestock farming pollution, with other cattle and pigs breeding identified as the two major sources of pollution from the livestock sector. Southwest, Central and East China suffered the highly densified pollutants generation and discharges. Furthermore, cropland exceeding its carrying capacity was concentrated in these regions. Our findings provide additional insights into livestock and poultry farming in the context of relocation, strengthening regulation, transforming breeding operations, and rationalizing the resource use of manure, all of which are important measures for the sustainable development of both agriculture and the environment.

Time series modelling for wastewater-based epidemiology of COVID-19: A nationwide study in 40 wastewater treatment plants of Belgium, February 2021 to June 2022

BACKGROUND

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been implemented to monitor surges of COVID-19. Yet, multiple factors impede the usefulness of WBE and quantitative adjustment may be required.

AIM

We aimed to model the relationship between WBE data and incident COVID-19 cases, while adjusting for confounders and autocorrelation.

METHODS

This nationwide WBE study includes data from 40 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Belgium (02/2021-06/2022). We applied ARIMA-based modelling to assess the effect of daily flow rate, pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) concentration, a measure of human faeces in wastewater, and variants (alpha, delta, and omicron strains) on SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater. Secondly, adjusted WBE metrics at different lag times were used to predict incident COVID-19 cases. Model selection was based on AICc minimization.

RESULTS

In 33/40 WWTPs, RNA levels were best explained by incident cases, flow rate, and PMMoV. Flow rate and PMMoV were associated with -13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: -26.1 to +0.2 %) and +13.0 % (95 % prediction interval: +5.1 to +21.0 %) change in RNA levels per SD increase, respectively. In 38/40 WWTPs, variants did not explain variability in RNA levels independent of cases. Furthermore, our study shows that RNA levels can lead incident cases by at least one week in 15/40 WWTPs. The median population size of leading WWTPs was 85.1 % larger than that of non‑leading WWTPs. In 17/40 WWTPs, however, RNA levels did not lead or explain incident cases in addition to autocorrelation.

CONCLUSION

This study provides quantitative insights into key determinants of WBE, including the effects of wastewater flow rate, PMMoV, and variants. Substantial inter-WWTP variability was observed in terms of explaining incident cases. These findings are of practical importance to WBE practitioners and show that the early-warning potential of WBE is WWTP-specific and needs validation.

A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Loss of flockmates weakens winter site fidelity in golden-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia atricapilla)

Animal social interactions have an intrinsic spatial basis as many of these interactions occur in spatial proximity. This presents a dilemma when determining causality: Do individuals interact socially because they happen to share space, or do they share space because they are socially linked? We present a method that uses demographic turnover events as a natural experiment to investigate the links between social associations and space use in the context of interannual winter site fidelity in a migratory bird. We previously found that golden-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia atricapilla) show consistent flocking relationships across years, and that familiarity between individuals influences the dynamics of social competition over resources. Using long-term data on winter social and spatial behavior across 10 y, we show that i) sparrows exhibit interannual fidelity to winter home ranges on the scale of tens of meters and ii) the precision of interannual site fidelity increases with the number of winters spent, but iii) this fidelity is weakened when sparrows lose close flockmates from the previous year. Furthermore, the effect of flockmate loss on site fidelity was higher for birds that had returned in more than 2 winters, suggesting that social fidelity may play an increasingly important role on spatial behavior across the lifetime of this migratory bird. Our study provides evidence that social relationships can influence site fidelity, and shows the potential of long-term studies for disentangling the relationship between social and spatial behavior.

Estimate of population density and diagnosis of main factors of spatial heterogeneity in the metropolitan scale, western China

We estimated the population density and quantified its characteristics using remote sensing, census data, and Geographic Information System (GIS). The interactive influence of these factors on population density was quantified based on geographic detectors to identify the differentiation mechanisms in the Chengdu metropolitan area of China. We identified the key factors that contribute to population density growth. The models used to simulate population density had the highest R² values (>0.899). Population density tended to increase with time, with a multicentre spatial agglomeration pattern; the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution tended to move from the southeast to the northwest. Industry proportions, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land use, distance to urban centers or construction land, and GDP per capita can satisfactorily explain population density changes. The combined impact of these elements on population density variation exhibited mutual and non-linear strengthening, with the mutual effect of the two elements intensifying the impact of each individual element. Our study identified the key driving forces that contribute to the differentiation of population density, which can provide valuable support for the development of effective regional and targeted population planning guidelines.

Crime, inequality and public health: a survey of emerging trends in urban data science

Urban agglomerations are constantly and rapidly evolving ecosystems, with globalization and increasing urbanization posing new challenges in sustainable urban development well summarized in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The advent of the digital age generated by modern alternative data sources provides new tools to tackle these challenges with spatio-temporal scales that were previously unavailable with census statistics. In this review, we present how new digital data sources are employed to provide data-driven insights to study and track (i) urban crime and public safety; (ii) socioeconomic inequalities and segregation; and (iii) public health, with a particular focus on the city scale.

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise

Climate change-induced sea-level rise will lead to an increase in internal migration, whose intensity and spatial patterns will depend on the amount of sea-level rise; future socioeconomic development; and adaptation strategies pursued to reduce exposure and vulnerability to sea-level rise. To explore spatial feedbacks between these drivers, we combine sea-level rise projections, socioeconomic projections, and assumptions on adaptation policies in a spatially-explicit model ('CONCLUDE'). Using the Mediterranean region as a case study, we find up to 20 million sea-level rise-related internal migrants by 2100 if no adaptation policies are implemented, with approximately three times higher migration in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries compared to northern Mediterranean countries. We show that adaptation policies can reduce the number of internal migrants by a factor of 1.4 to 9, depending on the type of strategies pursued; the implementation of hard protection measures may even lead to migration towards protected coastlines. Overall, spatial migration patterns are robust across all scenarios, with out-migration from a narrow coastal strip and in-migration widely spread across urban settings. However, the type of migration (e.g. proactive/reactive, managed/autonomous) depends on future socioeconomic developments that drive adaptive capacity, calling for decision-making that goes well beyond coastal issues.

How do urban socio-economic characteristics shape a city's social recovery? An empirical study of COVID-19 shocks in China

The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak significantly challenged the cities' abilities to recover from shocks, and cities' responses have widely differed. Understanding these disparate responses has been insufficient, especially from a social recovery perspective. In this study, we propose the concept of social recovery and develop a comprehensive perspective on how a city's socioeconomic characteristics affect it. The analytical framework is applied to 296 prefecture-level cities in China, with social recovery measured by the changes in intercity intensity between the pre-pandemic baseline (2019 Q1 and Q2) and the period in which the pandemic slightly abated (2020 Q1 and Q2) through anonymized location-based big data. The results indicate that the social recovery of Chinese cities during the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly spatially correlated. Cities with larger populations, a higher proportion of GDP in the secondary industry, higher road density or more adequate medical resources tend to recover socially better. Moreover, these municipal characteristics have significant spatial spillover effects. Specifically, city size, government intervention and industrial structure show negative spillover effects on neighboring areas while information dissemination efficiency, road density, and the number of community health services per capita have positive spillover. This study fills the knowledge gap regarding the different performances of cities when they face pandemic shocks. The assessment of a city's social recovery is an insight into the theoretical framework of vulnerability that aids in translating it into urban resilience. Hence our findings provide practice implications for China and beyond as the interest in urban-resilience development surges around the post-pandemic world.

A Systematic Review of Mobile Phone Data in Crime Applications: A Coherent Taxonomy Based on Data Types and Analysis Perspectives, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

Digital technologies have recently become more advanced, allowing for the development of social networking sites and applications. Despite these advancements, phone calls and text messages still make up the largest proportion of mobile data usage. It is possible to study human communication behaviors and mobility patterns using the useful information that mobile phone data provide. Specifically, the digital traces left by the large number of mobile devices provide important information that facilitates a deeper understanding of human behavior and mobility configurations for researchers in various fields, such as criminology, urban sensing, transportation planning, and healthcare. Mobile phone data record significant spatiotemporal (i.e., geospatial and time-related data) and communication (i.e., call) information. These can be used to achieve different research objectives and form the basis of various practical applications, including human mobility models based on spatiotemporal interactions, real-time identification of criminal activities, inference of friendship interactions, and density distribution estimation. The present research primarily reviews studies that have employed mobile phone data to investigate, assess, and predict human communication and mobility patterns in the context of crime prevention. These investigations have sought, for example, to detect suspicious activities, identify criminal networks, and predict crime, as well as understand human communication and mobility patterns in urban sensing applications. To achieve this, a systematic literature review was conducted on crime research studies that were published between 2014 and 2022 and listed in eight electronic databases. In this review, we evaluated the most advanced methods and techniques used in recent criminology applications based on mobile phone data and the benefits of using this information to predict crime and detect suspected criminals. The results of this literature review contribute to improving the existing understanding of where and how populations live and socialize and how to classify individuals based on their mobility patterns. The results show extraordinary growth in studies that utilized mobile phone data to study human mobility and movement patterns compared to studies that used the data to infer communication behaviors. This observation can be attributed to privacy concerns related to acquiring call detail records (CDRs). Additionally, most of the studies used census and survey data for data validation. The results show that social network analysis tools and techniques have been widely employed to detect criminal networks and urban communities. In addition, correlation analysis has been used to investigate spatial-temporal patterns of crime, and ambient population measures have a significant impact on crime rates.

Exploring Factors Affecting Urban Park Use from a Geospatial Perspective: A Big Data Study in Fuzhou, China

Promoting research on urban park use is important for developing the ecological and environmental health benefits of parks. This study proposes uniquely integrated methods combined with big data to measure urban park use. It combines comprehensive geographic detectors and multiscale geographically weighted regression from a geospatial perspective to quantify the individual and interactive effects of the parks' characteristics, accessibility, and surrounding environment features on weekday and weekend park use. The study also explores the degree of influence of spatial changes. The results indicate that the park-surrounding facilities and services factor contributed most to use, while its interaction effect with park service capacity had the greatest impact on park use. The interaction effects showed binary or nonlinear enhancement. This suggests that park use should be promoted within multiple dimensions. Many influencing factors had significant changes in the geographic space, suggesting that city-level park zoning construction should be adopted. Finally, park use was found to be affected by users' subjective preference on weekends and convenience factors on weekdays. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the influencing mechanisms of urban park use, which can help urban planners and policymakers formulate more specific policies to successfully manage and plan urban parks.

Ground Risk Assessment for Unmanned Aircraft Focusing on Multiple Risk Sources in Urban Environments

This paper investigates the risk quantification for Unmanned Aircraft (UA) in urban environments, focusing on the safety of ground people. An assessment methodology is proposed to quantify the flying risk, which indicates the ground fatalities resulted from different potential risk sources. With the knowledge of UA’s specifications and ground environments, the flying risk of the target UA flying in the target area could be evaluated from the combination of results from independent assessment procedures focusing on multiple potential risk sources with specific safety metrics. A study case to assess the flying risk of the Talon and the DJI Inspire 2 flying in one piece of the region in Chengdu is presented. From the assessment result, the airspace management strategies for both Talon and DJI Inspires 2 could be easily developed to guarantee the safety of ground people, therefore, this risk quantification method could be a general tool to support decision-making in safety work.

An urban crowd flow model integrating geographic characteristics

Predicting urban crowd flow spatial distributions plays a critical role in optimizing urban public safety and traffic congestion management. The spatial dependency between regions and the temporal dynamics of the local crowd flow are two important features in urban crowd flow prediction. However, few studies considered geographic characteristic in terms of spatial features. To fill this gap, we propose an urban crowd flow prediction model integrating geographic characteristics (FPM-geo). First, three geographic characteristics, proximity, functional similarity, and road network connectivity, are fused by a residual multigraph convolution network to model the spatial dependency relationship. Then, a long short-term memory network is applied as a framework to integrate both the temporal dynamic patterns of local crowd flow and the spatial dependency between regions. A 4-day mobile phone dataset validates the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing it with several widely used approaches. The result shows that the root mean square error decreases by 15.37% compared with those of the typical models with the prediction interval at the 15-min level. The prediction error increases with the crowd flow size in a local area. Moreover, the error reaches the top of the morning peak and the evening peak and slopes down to the bottom at night.

Mobile Phone Data: A Survey of Techniques, Features, and Applications

Due to the rapid growth in the use of smartphones, the digital traces (e.g., mobile phone data, call detail records) left by the use of these devices have been widely employed to assess and predict human communication behaviors and mobility patterns in various disciplines and domains, such as urban sensing, epidemiology, public transportation, data protection, and criminology. These digital traces provide significant spatiotemporal (geospatial and time-related) data, revealing people's mobility patterns as well as communication (incoming and outgoing calls) data, revealing people's social networks and interactions. Thus, service providers collect smartphone data by recording the details of every user activity or interaction (e.g., making a phone call, sending a text message, or accessing the internet) done using a smartphone and storing these details on their databases. This paper surveys different methods and approaches for assessing and predicting human communication behaviors and mobility patterns from mobile phone data and differentiates them in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. It also gives information about spatial, temporal, and call characteristics that have been extracted from mobile phone data and used to model how people communicate and move. We survey mobile phone data research published between 2013 and 2021 from eight main databases, namely, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, MDPI, SAGE, Science Direct, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 148 studies were selected.

A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing masks, physical distancing, lockdown, and travel restrictions. Because of their economic and logistical effects, tracking mobility changes during quarantines is crucial in assessing their efficacy and predicting the virus spread. Unlike many other heavily affected countries, Chile implemented quarantines at a more localized level, shutting down small administrative zones, rather than the whole country or large regions. Given the non-obvious effects of these localized quarantines, tracking mobility becomes even more critical in Chile. To assess the impact on human mobility of the localized quarantines, we analyze a mobile phone dataset made available by Telefónica Chile, which comprises 31 billion eXtended Detail Records and 5.4 million users covering the period February 26th to September 20th, 2020. From these records, we derive three epidemiologically relevant metrics describing the mobility within and between comunas. The datasets made available may be useful to understand the effect of localized quarantines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Urban Flood Risk Assessment Based on Dynamic Population Distribution and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters that can cause considerable economic damage and loss of life in many regions of the world. Urban flood risk assessment is important for urban flood control, disaster reduction, and risk management. In this study, a novel approach for assessing urban flood risk was proposed based on the dynamic population distribution, improved entropy weight method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the principle of maximum membership, and the spatial distribution of flood risk in four different sessions or daily time segments (TS1-TS4) in the northern part of the Shenzhen River Basin (China) was assessed using geographic information system technology. Results indicated that risk levels varied with population movement. The areas of highest risk were largest in TS1 and TS3, accounting for 7.03% and 7.07% of the total area, respectively. The areas of higher risk were largest in TS2 and TS4, accounting for 4.54% and 4.64% of the total area, respectively. The findings of this study could provide a theoretical basis for assessing urban flood risk management measures in Shenzhen (and even throughout China), and a scientific basis for development of disaster prevention and reduction strategies by flood control departments.

Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.

High-resolution estimates of social distancing feasibility, mapped for urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa

Social distancing has been widely-implemented as a public health measure during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite widespread application of social distancing guidance, the feasibility of people adhering to such guidance varies in different settings, influenced by population density, the built environment and a range of socio-economic factors. Social distancing constraints however have only been identified and mapped for limited areas. Here, we present an ease of social distancing index, integrating metrics on urban form and population density derived from new multi-country building footprint datasets and gridded population estimates. The index dataset provides estimates of social distancing feasibility, mapped at high-resolution for urban areas across 50 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Fine-scale population spatialization data of China in 2018 based on real location-based big data

Accurate location-based big data has a high resolution and a direct interaction with human activities, allowing for fine-scale population spatial data to be realized. We take the average of Tencent user location big data as a measure of ambient population. The county-level statistical population data in 2018 was used as the assigned input data. The log linear spatially weighted regression model was used to establish the relationship between location data and statistical data to allocate the latter to a 0.01° grid, and the ambient population data of mainland China was obtained. Extracting street-level (lower than county-level) statistics for accuracy testing, we found that POP2018 has the best fit with the actual permanent population (R² = 0.91), and the error is the smallest (MSE_POP2018 = 22.48 <MSE_WorldPop = 37.24 <MSE_LandScan = 100.91). This research supplemented in the refined spatial distribution data of people between census years, as well as presenting the application technique of big data in ambient population estimation and zoning mapping.

Measurement(s)	population
Technology Type(s)	location-based big data
Factor Type(s)	spatial region
Sample Characteristic - Environment	spatial region
Sample Characteristic - Location	China

Projecting 1 km-grid population distributions from 2020 to 2100 globally under shared socioeconomic pathways

Spatially explicit population grid can play an important role in climate change, resource management, sustainable development and other fields. Several gridded datasets already exist, but global data, especially high-resolution data on future populations are largely lacking. Based on the WorldPop dataset, we present a global gridded population dataset covering 248 countries or areas at 30 arc-seconds (approximately 1 km) spatial resolution with 5-year intervals for the period 2020-2100 by implementing Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Our dataset is quantitatively consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' (SSPs) national population. The spatially explicit population dataset we predicted in this research is validated by comparing it with the WorldPop dataset both at the sub-national and grid level. 3569 provinces (almost all provinces on the globe) and more than 480 thousand grids are taken into verification, and the results show that our dataset can serve as an input for predictive research in various fields.

Mapping urban physical distancing constraints, sub-Saharan Africa: a case study from Kenya

With the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, public health measures such as physical distancing were recommended to reduce transmission of the virus causing the disease. However, the same approach in all areas, regardless of context, may lead to measures being of limited effectiveness and having unforeseen negative consequences, such as loss of livelihoods and food insecurity. A prerequisite to planning and implementing effective, context-appropriate measures to slow community transmission is an understanding of any constraints, such as the locations where physical distancing would not be possible. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, we outline and discuss challenges that are faced by residents of urban informal settlements in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We describe how new geospatial data sets can be integrated to provide more detailed information about local constraints on physical distancing and can inform planning of alternative ways to reduce transmission of COVID-19 between people. We include a case study for Nairobi County, Kenya, with mapped outputs which illustrate the intra-urban variation in the feasibility of physical distancing and the expected difficulty for residents of many informal settlement areas. Our examples demonstrate the potential of new geospatial data sets to provide insights and support to policy-making for public health measures, including COVID-19.

Revealing spatiotemporal interaction patterns behind complex cities

Cities are typical dynamic complex systems that connect people and facilitate interactions. Revealing general collective patterns behind spatiotemporal interactions between residents is crucial for various urban studies, of which we are still lacking a comprehensive understanding. Massive cellphone data enable us to construct interaction networks based on spatiotemporal co-occurrence of individuals. The rank-size distributions of dynamic population of locations in all unit time windows are stable, although people are almost constantly moving in cities and hot-spots that attract people are changing over time in a day. A larger city is of a stronger heterogeneity as indicated by a larger scaling exponent. After aggregating spatiotemporal interaction networks over consecutive time windows, we reveal a switching behavior of cities between two states. During the "active" state, the whole city is concentrated in fewer larger communities, while in the "inactive" state, people are scattered in smaller communities. Above discoveries are universal over three cities across continents. In addition, a city stays in an active state for a longer time when its population grows larger. Spatiotemporal interaction segregation can be well approximated by residential patterns only in smaller cities. In addition, we propose a temporal-population-weighted-opportunity model by integrating a time-dependent departure probability to make dynamic predictions on human mobility, which can reasonably well explain the observed patterns of spatiotemporal interactions in cities.

COVID-19 lockdown introduces human mobility pattern changes for both Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area and the San Francisco bay area

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, various countries have sought to control COVID-19 transmission by introducing non-pharmaceutical interventions. Restricting population mobility, by introducing social distancing, is one of the most widely used non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although similar population mobility restriction interventions were introduced, their impacts on COVID-19 transmission are often inconsistent across different regions and different time periods. These differences may provide critical information for tailoring COVID-19 control strategies. In this paper, anonymized high spatiotemporal resolution mobile-phone location data were employed to empirically analyze and quantify the impact of lockdowns on population mobility. Both the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China and the San Francisco Bay Area (SBA) in the United States were studied. In response to the lockdowns, a general reduction in population mobility was observed, but the structural changes in mobility are very different between the two bays: 1) GBA mobility decreased by approximately 74.0-80.1% while the decrease of SBA was about 25.0-42.1%; 2) compared to SBA, the GBA had smoother volatility in daily volume during the lockdown. The volatility change indexes for GBA and SBA were 2.55% and 7.52%, respectively; 3) the effect of lockdown on short- to long-distance mobility was similar in GBA while the medium- and long-distance impact was more pronounced in SBA.

Small area population denominators for improved disease surveillance and response

The Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the value of strong surveillance systems in supporting our abilities to respond rapidly and effectively in mitigating the impacts of infectious diseases. A cornerstone of such systems is basic subnational scale data on populations and their demographics, which enable the scale of outbreaks to be assessed, risk to specific groups to be determined and appropriate interventions to be designed. Ongoing weaknesses and gaps in such data have however been highlighted by the pandemic. These can include outdated or inaccurate census data and a lack of administrative and registry systems to update numbers, particularly in low and middle income settings. Efforts to design and implement globally consistent geospatial modelling methods for the production of small area demographic data that can be flexibly integrated into health-focussed surveillance and information systems have been made, but these often remain based on outdated population data or uncertain projections. In recent years, efforts have been made to capitalise on advances in computing power, satellite imagery and new forms of digital data to construct methods for estimating small area population distributions across national and regional scales in the absence of full enumeration. These are starting to be used to complement more traditional data collection approaches, especially in the delivery of health interventions, but barriers remain to their widespread adoption and use in disease surveillance and response. Here an overview of these approaches is presented, together with discussion of future directions and needs.

An Evaluation of Geo-located Twitter Data for Measuring Human Migration

This study evaluates the spatial patterns of flows generated from geo-located Twitter data to measure human migration. Using geo-located tweets continuously collected in the U.S. from 2013 to 2015, we identified Twitter users who migrated per changes in county-of-residence every two years and compared the Twitter-estimated county-to-county migration flows with the ones from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS). To evaluate the spatial patterns of Twitter migration flows when representing the IRS counterparts, we developed a normalized difference representation index to visualize and identify those counties of over-/under-representations in the Twitter estimates. Further, we applied a multidimensional spatial scan statistic approach based on a Poisson process model to detect pairs of origin and destination regions where the over-/under-representativeness occurred. The results suggest that Twitter migration flows tend to under-represent the IRS estimates in regions with a large population and over-represent them in metropolitan regions adjacent to tourist attractions. This study demonstrated that geo-located Twitter data could be a sound statistical proxy for measuring human migration. Given that the spatial patterns of Twitter-estimated migration flows vary significantly across the geographic space, related studies will benefit from our approach by identifying those regions where data calibration is necessary.

Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan

Nearly 50 million people globally have been internally displaced due to conflict, persecution and human rights violations. However, the study of internally displaced persons—and the design of policies to assist them—is complicated by the fact that these people are often underrepresented in surveys and official statistics. We develop an approach to measure the impact of violence on internal displacement using anonymized high-frequency mobile phone data. We use this approach to quantify the short- and long-term impacts of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan, a country that has experienced decades of conflict. Our results highlight how displacement depends on the nature of violence. High-casualty events, and violence involving the Islamic State, cause the most displacement. Provincial capitals act as magnets for people fleeing violence in outlying areas. Our work illustrates the potential for non-traditional data sources to facilitate research and policymaking in conflict settings.

Blumenstock et al. find that high-frequency mobile phone data can be used to precisely measure the impact of violence on internal displacement. Using data from Afghanistan, they show how patterns of displacement depend on the nature of violence.

A Population Spatialization Model at the Building Scale Using Random Forest

Population spatialization reveals the distribution and quantity of the population in geographic space with gridded population maps. Fine-scale population spatialization is essential for urbanization and disaster prevention. Previous approaches have used remotely sensed imagery to disaggregate census data, but this approach has limitations. For example, large-scale population censuses cannot be conducted in underdeveloped countries or regions, and remote sensing data lack semantic information indicating the different human activities occurring in a precise geographic location. Geospatial big data and machine learning provide new fine-scale population distribution mapping methods. In this paper, 30 features are extracted using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Then, a building-scale population estimation model is trained by a random forest (RF) regression algorithm. The results show that 91% of the buildings in Lin’an District have absolute error values of less than six compared with the actual population data. In a comparison with a multiple linear (ML) regression model, the mean absolute errors of the RF and ML models are 2.52 and 3.21, respectively, the root mean squared errors are 8.2 and 9.8, and the R2 values are 0.44 and 0.18. The RF model performs better at building-scale population estimation using easily accessible multisource geographic data. Future work will improve the model accuracy in densely populated areas.

Exploring the Relationship between the Spatial Distribution of Different Age Populations and Points of Interest (POI) in China

Population spatialization data is crucial to conducting scientific studies of coupled human–environment systems. Although significant progress has been made in population spatialization, the spatialization of different age populations is still weak. POI data with rich information have great potential to simulate the spatial distribution of different age populations, but the relationship between spatial distributions of POI and different age populations is still unclear, and whether it can be used as an auxiliary variable for the different age population spatialization remains to be explored. Therefore, this study collected and sorted out the number of different age populations and POIs in 2846 county-level administrative units of the Chinese mainland in 2010, divided the research data by region and city size, and explored the relationship between the different age populations and POIs. We found that there is a complex relationship between POI and different age populations. Firstly, there are positive, moderate-to-strong linear correlations between POI and population indicators. Secondly, POI has a different explanatory power for different age populations, and it has a higher explanatory power for the young and middle-aged population than the child and old population. Thirdly, the explanatory power of POI to different age populations is positively correlated with the urban economic development level. Finally, a small number of a certain kinds of POIs can be used to effectively simulate the spatial distributions of different age populations, which can improve the efficiency of obtaining spatialization data of different age populations and greatly save on costs. The study can provide data support for the precise spatialization of different age populations and inspire the spatialization of the other population attributes by POI in the future.

Development of Big Data-Analysis Pipeline for Mobile Phone Data with Mobipack and Spatial Enhancement

Frequent and granular population data are essential for decision making. Further-more, for progress monitoring towards achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs), data availability at global scales as well as at different disaggregated levels is required. The high population coverage of mobile cellular signals has been accelerating the generation of large-scale spatiotemporal data such as call detail record (CDR) data. This has enabled resource-scarce countries to collect digital footprints at scales and resolutions that would otherwise be impossible to achieve solely through traditional surveys. However, using such data requires multiple processes, algorithms, and considerable effort. This paper proposes a big data-analysis pipeline built exclusively on an open-source framework with our spatial enhancement library and a proposed open-source mobility analysis package called Mobipack. Mobipack consists of useful modules for mobility analysis, including data anonymization, origin–destination extraction, trip extraction, zone analysis, route interpolation, and a set of mobility indicators. Several implemented use cases are presented to demonstrate the advantages and usefulness of the proposed system. In addition, we explain how a large-scale data platform that requires efficient resource allocation can be con-structed for managing data as well as how it can be used and maintained in a sustainable manner. The platform can further help to enhance the capacity of CDR data analysis, which usually requires a specific skill set and is time-consuming to implement from scratch. The proposed system is suited for baseline processing and the effective handling of CDR data; thus, it allows for improved support and on-time preparation.

Equity in Health-Seeking Behavior of Groups Using Different Transportations

The equity of health-seeking behaviors of groups using different transportations is an important metric for health outcome disparities among them. Recently, smart card data and taxi trajectory data have been used extensively but separately to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of health-seeking behavior and healthcare accessibility. However, the differences in health-seeking behavior among groups by different transportations have hitherto received scant attention from scholars. To fill the gap, this paper aimed to investigate the equity in health-seeking behavior of groups using different transportations. With sets of spatial and temporal constraints, we first extracted health-seeking behaviors by bus and taxi from smart card data and taxi trajectory data from Beijing during 13–17 April 2015. Then, health-seeking behaviors of groups by bus and taxi were compared regarding the coverage of hospital service areas, time efficiency to seek healthcare, and transportation access. The results indicated that there are inequities in groups using different travel modes to seek healthcare regarding the coverage of hospital service areas, time efficiency to seek healthcare, and transportation access. They provide some suggestions for mode-specific interventions to narrow health disparity, which might be more efficient than a one-size-fits-all intervention.

Quantification of ecosystem services supply-demand and the impact of demographic change on cultural services in Shenzhen, China

Previous studies on the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) mainly focused on inter-annual changes, and no studies have explored the impact of demographic change on the ES supply and demand on fine-grained time scales. Thus, taking Shenzhen as an example, the status of ES supply and demand, as well as diurnal population changes and their impacts on cultural services were analyzed at different time periods using mobile phone signaling data, ecological supply-demand ratio (ESDR), Geo-Informatic Tupu, InVEST model and buffer zone. The results showed that the population declines successively on workdays, weekends and holidays, and that the daytime population is greater than the nighttime. Water yield services can basically meet the demand in terms of quantity and spatial distribution, however, carbon sequestration and cultural services showed the opposite results. The main type of ESDR changes in cultural services are the mutual conversion of deficit and balance, and these are concentrated in areas with high forest coverage and small populations, but frequent population changes. In addition, when the fixed population is too large, the use of time-varying population data will conceal the impact of demographic changes on ES supply and demand, and other data are needed for auxiliary analysis. Overall, this study provides a new research perspective for the ES supply and demand and can provide a theoretical basis for refined sustainable urban management.

A 24-hour population distribution dataset based on mobile phone data from Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland

In this article, we present temporally dynamic population distribution data from the Helsinki Metropolitan Area, Finland, at the level of 250 m by 250 m statistical grid cells. An hourly population distribution dataset is provided for regular workdays (Mon – Thu), Saturdays and Sundays. The data are based on aggregated mobile phone data collected by the biggest mobile network operator in Finland. Mobile phone data are assigned to statistical grid cells using an advanced dasymetric interpolation method based on ancillary data about land cover, buildings and a time use survey. The dataset is validated by comparing population register data from Statistics Finland for night hours and a daytime workplace registry. The resulting 24-hour population data can be used to reveal the temporal dynamics of the city, and examine population variations relevant to spatial accessibility analyses, crisis management, planning and beyond.

Measurement(s)	population distribution
Technology Type(s)	mobile phone • digital curation
Factor Type(s)	geographic location • hour of the day • day of the week
Sample Characteristic - Environment	city
Sample Characteristic - Location	Capital Region • Helsinki

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.17168978

Building knowledge of university campus population dynamics to enhance near-to-source sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 detection

Wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented for monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 during the global COVID-19 pandemic, and near-to-source monitoring is of particular interest for outbreak management in discrete populations. However, variation in population size poses a challenge to the triggering of public health interventions using wastewater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations. This is especially important for near-to-source sites that are subject to significant daily variability in upstream populations. Focusing on a university campus in England, this study investigates methods to account for variation in upstream populations at a site with highly transient footfall and provides a better understanding of the impact of variable populations on the SARS-CoV-2 trends provided by wastewater-based epidemiology. The potential for complementary data to help direct response activities within the near-to-source population is also explored, and potential concerns arising due to the presence of heavily diluted samples during wet weather are addressed. Using wastewater biomarkers, it is demonstrated that population normalisation can reveal significant differences between days where SARS-CoV-2 concentrations are very similar. Confidence in the trends identified is strongest when samples are collected during dry weather periods; however, wet weather samples can still provide valuable information. It is also shown that building-level occupancy estimates based on complementary data aid identification of potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 and can enable targeted actions to be taken to identify and manage potential sources of pathogen transmission in localised communities.

Understanding peace through the world news

Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.

Global holiday datasets for understanding seasonal human mobility and population dynamics

Public and school holidays have important impacts on population mobility and dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales, subsequently affecting the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and many socioeconomic activities. However, worldwide data on public and school holidays for understanding their changes across regions and years have not been assembled into a single, open-source and multitemporal dataset. To address this gap, an open access archive of data on public and school holidays in 2010-2019 across the globe at daily, weekly, and monthly timescales was constructed. Airline passenger volumes across 90 countries from 2010 to 2018 were also assembled to illustrate the usage of the holiday data for understanding the changing spatiotemporal patterns of population movements.

Microestimates of wealth for all low- and middle-income countries

Many critical policy decisions rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty, yet only half of all countries have access to adequate data on poverty. This paper creates a complete and publicly available set of microestimates of the distribution of relative poverty and wealth across all 135 low- and middle-income countries. We provide extensive evidence of the accuracy and validity of the estimates and also provide confidence intervals for each microestimate to facilitate responsible downstream use. These methods and maps provide a set of tools to study economic development and growth, guide interventions, monitor and evaluate policies, and track the elimination of poverty worldwide.

Many critical policy decisions, from strategic investments to the allocation of humanitarian aid, rely on data about the geographic distribution of wealth and poverty. Yet many poverty maps are out of date or exist only at very coarse levels of granularity. Here we develop microestimates of the relative wealth and poverty of the populated surface of all 135 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) at 2.4 km resolution. The estimates are built by applying machine-learning algorithms to vast and heterogeneous data from satellites, mobile phone networks, and topographic maps, as well as aggregated and deidentified connectivity data from Facebook. We train and calibrate the estimates using nationally representative household survey data from 56 LMICs and then validate their accuracy using four independent sources of household survey data from 18 countries. We also provide confidence intervals for each microestimate to facilitate responsible downstream use. These estimates are provided free for public use in the hope that they enable targeted policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, provide the foundation for insights into the causes and consequences of economic development and growth, and promote responsible policymaking in support of sustainable development.

A tale of three cities: uncovering human-urban interactions with geographic-context aware social media data

Seeking spatiotemporal patterns about how citizens interact with the urban space is critical for understanding how cities function. Such interactions were studied in various forms focusing on patterns of people's presence, action, and transition in the urban environment, which are defined as human-urban interactions in this paper. Using human activity datasets that utilize mobile positioning technology for tracking the locations and movements of individuals, researchers developed stochastic models to uncover preferential return behaviors and recurrent transitional activity structures in human-urban interactions. Ad-hoc heuristics and spatial clustering methods were applied to derive meaningful activity places in those studies. However, the lack of semantic meaning in the recorded locations makes it difficult to examine the details about how people interact with different activity places. In this study, we utilized geographic context-aware Twitter data to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of people's interactions with their activity places in different urban settings. To test consistency of our findings, we used geo-located tweets to derive the activity places in Twitter users' location histories over three major U.S. metropolitan areas: Greater Boston Area, Chicago, and San Diego, where the geographic context of each location was inferred from its closest land use parcel. The results showed striking spatial and temporal similarities in Twitter users' interactions with their activity places among the three cities. By using entropy-based predictability measures, this study not only confirmed the preferential return behaviors as people tend to revisit a few highly frequented places but also revealed detailed characteristics of those activity places.

Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem

Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the 'big data' era or the 'data revolution'. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of 'old' big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of 'new' big data sources, such as 'digital traces' generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of 'digital demography'. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field.

Mobility in China, 2020: a tale of four phases

2020 was an unprecedented year, with rapid and drastic changes in human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand the variation in commuting patterns among the Chinese population across stable and unstable periods, we used nationwide mobility data from 318 million mobile phone users in China to examine the extreme fluctuations of population movements in 2020, ranging from the Lunar New Year travel season (chunyun), to the exceptional calm of COVID-19 lockdown, and then to the recovery period. We observed that cross-city movements, which increased substantially in chunyun and then dropped sharply during the lockdown, are primarily dependent on travel distance and the socio-economic development of cities. Following the Lunar New Year holiday, national mobility remained low until mid-February, and COVID-19 interventions delayed more than 72.89 million people returning to large cities. Mobility network analysis revealed clusters of highly connected cities, conforming to the social-economic division of urban agglomerations in China. While the mass migration back to large cities was delayed, smaller cities connected more densely to form new clusters. During the recovery period after travel restrictions were lifted, the netflows of over 55% city pairs reversed in direction compared to before the lockdown. These findings offer the most comprehensive picture of Chinese mobility at fine resolution across various scenarios in China and are of critical importance for decision making regarding future public-health-emergency response, transportation planning and regional economic development, among others.

Pendler Mobil: Die Verwendung von Mobilfunkdaten zur Unterstützung der amtlichen Pendlerstatistik

Die Verfügbarkeit von kleinräumigen und aktuellen Pendlerverflechtungen sind für politische wie auch kommunale Entscheidungsfindungen von hoher Bedeutung. Aus dem Pendlerverhalten lassen sich Rückschlüsse auf Arbeitsmarktregionen und die Verteilung der Wohnbevölkerung ziehen, was unter anderem zu einer laufenden Verbesserung der Verkehrsinfrastruktur beiträgt. Die dafür notwendigen Daten veröffentlicht die amtliche Pendlerrechnung. Jedoch weist sie Verbesserungspotenzial im Hinblick auf die zeitliche und räumliche Darstellung der Pendlerverflechtungen von Erwerbstätigen sowie eine fachliche Erweiterung hinsichtlich der Bildungspendler auf.

Dieser Artikel beschreibt die mit dem Projekt Pendler Mobil geprüften Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten der amtlichen Pendlerrechnung auf Basis von Quelle-Ziel-Matrizen aus Mobilfunkdaten. Mobilfunkdaten stellen aufgrund ihrer zeitlichen Aktualität und räumlich feinen Auflösung eine robuste Datengrundlage zur flexiblen Abbildung von potenziellen und regelmäßigen Pendlerbewegungen dar. Die potenzielle Leistungsfähigkeit der Mobilfunkdaten ermöglicht damit eine externe Validierung bestehender Pendlerrechnungen oder Pendlerstatistiken sowie eine beiderseitige Ergänzung zur Ermittlung und Darstellungen weiterer Formen des Pendelns der Erwerbsbevölkerung.

Am Fallbeispiel des Bundeslandes Nordrhein-Westfalen werden im Folgenden Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede der übereinstimmenden Pendlerverflechtungen auf Basis von Mobilfunkdaten und der amtlichen Pendlerrechnung erörtert. Dabei gehen wir auf die Herausforderungen der Aufbereitung und Definition geeigneter Mobilfunkdaten durch den Datenanbieter sowie weitere Einflüsse auf die Mobilfunkdaten, wie bspw. durch die zurückgelegte Distanz oder die Verweilzeiten mobiler Aktivitäten, ein. Besonders die Unterschätzung der mobilen Pendlerströme im Vergleich zur amtlichen Pendlerrechnung legt nahe, Modifizierungsansätze der Mobilfunkdaten zu diskutieren. Im Ergebnis können die vorliegenden Mobilfunkdaten potenziell die amtliche Pendlerrechnung durch kleinräumige Pendlerbewegungen in Städten in Form einer erweiterten Zielorts-Bestimmung unterstützen und die Identifizierung von stark frequentierten Arbeitsorten in Städten ermöglichen.