Invasive mammal eradication on islands results in substantial conservation gains

Past conservation efforts reveal which actions lead to positive outcomes for species

Understanding the consequences of past conservation efforts is essential to inform the means of maintaining and restoring species. Data from the IUCN Red List for 67,217 animal species were reviewed and analyzed to determine (i) which conservation actions have been implemented for different species, (ii) which types of species have improved in status and (iii) which actions are likely to have driven the improvements. At least 51.8% (34,847) of assessed species have actions reported, mostly comprising protected areas (82.7%). Proportionately more actions were reported for tetrapods and warm-water reef-building corals, and fewer for fish, dragonflies and damselflies and crustaceans. Species at greater risk of extinction have a wider range of species-targeted actions reported compared with less threatened species, reflecting differences in documentation and conservation efforts. Six times more species have deteriorated than improved in status, as reflected in their IUCN Red List category. Almost all species that improved have conservation actions in place, and typically were previously at high risk of extinction, have smaller ranges and were less likely to be documented as threatened by hunting and habitat loss or degradation. Improvements in status were driven by a wide range of actions, especially reintroductions; for amphibians and birds, area management was also important. While conservation interventions have reduced the extinction risk of some of the most threatened species, in very few cases has full recovery been achieved. Scaling up the extent and intensity of conservation interventions, particularly landscape-scale actions that benefit broadly distributed species, is urgently needed to assist the recovery of biodiversity.

Predicting the global economic costs of biological invasions by tetrapods

Globalisation has accelerated rates of biological invasions worldwide, leading to widespread environmental perturbations that often translate into rapidly expanding socio-economic costs. Although such monetary costs can be estimated from the observed effects of invasions, the pathways that lead invasive species to become economically impactful remain poorly understood. Here, we implement the first global-scale test of the hypothesis that adaptive traits that influence demographic resilience predict economic costs, using invasive terrestrial vertebrates as models given their well-catalogued impacts and characteristics. Our results reveal that total global costs of invasive tetrapods are conservatively in the tens of billions of dollars, with the vast majority due to damage costs from invasive mammals. These monetary impacts are predicted by longevity, female maturation age, diet and invasion pathway traits, although the directionality in the association between impacts and these drivers varied across classes. Alarmingly, costs remain unknown for >90 % of recorded established alien tetrapods worldwide, and across the majority of invaded countries. These huge socio-economic costs demonstrate the necessity of mitigating tetrapod invasions and filling knowledge gaps. Effective identification of traits predictive of costs among and within these groups can facilitate the prioritisation of resources to efficiently target the most damaging existing and emerging invasive tetrapod species.

Island restoration to rebuild seabird populations and amplify coral reef functioning

Mobile organisms like seabirds can provide important nutrient flows between ecosystems, but this connectivity has been interrupted by the degradation of island ecosystems. Island restoration (via invasive species eradications and the restoration of native vegetation) can reestablish seabird populations and their nutrient transfers between their foraging areas, breeding colonies, and adjacent nearshore habitats. Its diverse benefits are making island restoration increasingly common and scalable to larger islands and whole archipelagos. We identified the factors that influence breeding seabird abundances throughout the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean and conducted predictive modeling to estimate the abundances of seabirds that the archipelago could support under invasive predator eradication and native vegetation restoration scenarios. We explored whether the prey base exists to support restored seabird populations across the archipelago, calculated the nitrogen that restored populations of seabirds might produce via their guano, and modeled the cascading conservation gains that island restoration could provide. Restoration was predicted to increase breeding pairs of seabirds to over 280,000, and prey was predicted to be ample to support the revived seabird populations. Restored nutrient fluxes were predicted to result in increases in coral growth rates, reef fish biomasses, and parrotfish grazing and bioerosion rates. Given these potential cross-ecosystem benefits, our results support island restoration as a conservation priority that could enhance resilience to climatic change effects, such as sea-level rise and coral bleaching. We encourage the incorporation of our estimates of cross-ecosystem benefits in prioritization exercises for island restoration.

Population and community ecology: past progress and future directions

Population and community ecology as a science are about 100 years old, and we discuss here our opinion of what approaches have progressed well and which point to possible future directions. The three major threads within population and community ecology are theoretical ecology, statistical tests and models, and experimental ecology. We suggest that our major objective is to understand what factors determine the distribution and abundance of organisms within populations and communities, and we evaluate these threads against this major objective. Theoretical ecology is elegant and compelling and has laid the groundwork for achieving our overall objectives with useful simple models. Statistics and statistical models have contributed informative methods to analyze quantitatively our understanding of distribution and abundance for future research. Population ecology is difficult to carry out in the field, even though we may have all the statistical methods and models needed to achieve results. Community ecology is growing rapidly with much description but less understanding of why changes occur. Biodiversity science cuts across all these subdivisions but rarely digs into the necessary population and community science that might solve conservation problems. Climate change affects all aspects of ecology but to assume that everything in population and community ecology is driven by climate change is oversimplified. We make recommendations on how to advance the field with advice for present and future generations of population and community ecologists.

A landscape analysis and one health approach to an invasive species pathway: Pet and aquaria trade in the eastern Caribbean

Background

The pet and aquaria trade is a pathway for the introduction of invasive alien species (IAS) into sensitive Caribbean ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impact of this trade on IAS management in the Caribbean.

Methods

A multipronged approach was used, involving stakeholder engagement, trade flow analysis, questionnaires, a regional IAS workshop, and a One Health Invasive Alien Species Prioritization (OHIASP) method, to examine the pet and aquaria trade in Barbados and the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). These methods allow for a comprehensive tool necessary to prioritise IAS challenges worldwide particularly in Barbados and the OECS.

Results

The study assessed seven Caribbean countries: Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Antigua and Barbuda. Barbados reported the highest annual import values for pets (USD $371,604) and aquaria (USD $450,860) using data from 2016 to 2020. The species range was very narrow and likely a reflection of data collection systems. Trinidad and Tobago was the primary regional source for pet and aquaria imports. In total, 35 IAS were chosen for prioritization. Based on their weighted score, prioritized IAS were ranked in order of relative importance using a one-to-five selection scale. A priority list of 13 IAS was identified from the pet/aquaria imported into Barbados and the OECS.

Conclusions

This marks the first ever study using an OHIASP tool for examining, quantifying and ranking IAS risks in pet and aquaria trade pathways. This can assist zoonotic disease risk prioritization where necessary. Effective IAS management in the Caribbean requires multipronged approaches, data and information systems that integrate indigenous knowledge, leverage digital tools, and build community ownership, to overcome inherent regional vulnerabilities.

Building an eDNA surveillance toolkit for invasive rodents on islands: can we detect wild-type and gene drive Mus musculus?

BACKGROUND

Invasive management strategies range from preventing new invasive species incursions to eliminating established populations, with all requiring effective monitoring to guide action. The use of DNA sampled from the environment (eDNA) is one such tool that provides the ability to surveille and monitor target invasive species through passive sampling. Technology being developed to eliminate invasive species includes genetic biocontrol in the form of gene drive. This approach would drive a trait through a population and could be used to eliminate or modify a target population. Once a gene drive organism is released into a population then monitoring changes in density of the target species and the spread of the drive in the population would be critical.

RESULTS

In this paper, we use invasive Mus musculus as a model for development of an eDNA assay that detects wild-type M. musculus and gene drive M. musculus. We demonstrate successful development of an assay where environmental samples could be used to detect wild-type invasive M. musculus and the relative density of wild-type to gene drive M. musculus.

CONCLUSIONS

The development of a method that detects both wild-type M. musculus and a gene drive M. musculus (tCRISPR) from environmental samples expands the utility of environmental DNA. This method provides a tool that can immediately be deployed for invasive wild M. musculus management across the world. This is a proof-of-concept that a genetic biocontrol construct could be monitored using environmental samples.

Nine Lessons about Aquatic Invasive Species from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research (NTL-LTER) Program

Freshwater ecosystems can serve as model systems that reveal insights into biological invasions. In this article, we summarize nine lessons about aquatic invasive species from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research program and affiliated projects. The lessons about aquatic invasive species are as follows: Invasive species are more widespread than has been documented; they are usually at low abundance; they can irrupt from low-density populations in response to environmental triggers; they can occasionally have enormous and far-reaching impacts; they can affect microbial communities; reservoirs act as invasive species hotspots; ecosystem vulnerability to invasion can be estimated; invasive species removal can produce long-term benefits; and the impacts of invasive species control may be greater than the impacts of the invasive species. This synthesis highlights how long-term research on a freshwater landscape can advance our understanding of invasions.

Indoor-Outdoor Cats and the "One Health" Perspective: Veterinarian Insight and Influence

Veterinarian and client discussions about indoor-outdoor cats, although challenging, can impact decisions made regarding cat care and outdoor access. An online survey, exploring topics discussed with clients regarding indoor-outdoor cats and One Health, was made available to veterinarians practicing in the U.S. in 2022. The importance of topics by practice location and to the veterinarian versus what the veterinarian perceived as important to the client were analyzed. Of 280 responding veterinarians, 95% discussed indoor-outdoor cat activities with clients. Cat-associated disease (81%), cat population control (64%), and cat-associated trauma (53%) were discussed most often. With the exception of population control, rural, suburban, and urban veterinarians did not significantly differ in the frequency of topics discussed. Danger to the cat (e.g., trauma and diseases) was the most important topic when addressing indoor-outdoor cats with clients; 57% of veterinarians considered it important to themselves and 61% considered it important to the client. Only 13% of the veterinarians were extremely comfortable discussing One Health with clients and several One Health-related topics (zoonoses and wildlife impacts) were discussed least often. Less focus on One Health topics is potentially a missed opportunity to educate clients, enable more informed client decisions, and improve overall the care of cats.

Global shortfalls in documented actions to conserve biodiversity

Threatened species are by definition species that are in need of assistance. In the absence of suitable conservation interventions, they are likely to disappear soon1. There is limited understanding of how and where conservation interventions are applied globally, or how well they work2,3. Here, using information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and other global databases, we find that for species at risk from three of the biggest drivers of biodiversity loss-habitat loss, overexploitation for international trade and invasive species4-many appear to lack the appropriate types of conservation interventions. Indeed, although there has been substantial recent expansion of the protected area network, we still find that 91% of threatened species have insufficient representation of their habitats within protected areas. Conservation interventions are not implemented uniformly across different taxa and regions and, even when present, have infrequently led to substantial improvements in the status of species. For 58% of the world's threatened terrestrial species, we find conservation interventions to be notably insufficient or absent. We cannot determine whether such species are truly neglected, or whether efforts to recover them are not included in major conservation databases. If they are indeed neglected, the outlook for many of the world's threatened species is grim without more and better targeted action.

Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

Species eradication for ecosystem restoration

Many of the world's ecosystems are under unprecedented stress as human pressures have escalated to be a dominant driver of ecosystem composition and condition. Direct impacts such as agriculture, extraction, and development are impacting vast swathes of land and ocean, while the effects of human-caused climate change are felt even in the most remote parts of marine and terrestrial wildernesses. These impacts are resulting in changes ranging from ecosystem collapse or replacement to novel mixes of species due to temperature-driven range shifts. While reducing human pressures is paramount for the future viability of vulnerable ecosystems, much attention is now also focused on whether degraded areas can be restored. Indeed, the UN has declared 2021-2030 the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, which aims to "prevent, halt and reverse the degradation of ecosystems on every continent and in every ocean".

The positive impact of conservation action

Governments recently adopted new global targets to halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand the outcomes of conservation actions. We conducted a global meta-analysis of 186 studies (including 665 trials) that measured biodiversity over time and compared outcomes under conservation action with a suitable counterfactual of no action. We find that in two-thirds of cases, conservation either improved the state of biodiversity or at least slowed declines. Specifically, we find that interventions targeted at species and ecosystems, such as invasive species control, habitat loss reduction and restoration, protected areas, and sustainable management, are highly effective and have large effect sizes. This provides the strongest evidence to date that conservation actions are successful but require transformational scaling up to meet global targets.

Eradicating an invasive mammal requires local elimination and reduced reinvasion from an urban source population

Invasive mammal eradications are increasingly attempted across large, complex landscapes. Sequentially controlled management zones can be at risk of reinvasion from adjacent uncontrolled areas, and managers must weigh the relative benefits of ensuring complete elimination from a zone or minimizing reinvasion risk. This is complicated in urban areas, where habitat heterogeneity and a lack of baseline ecological knowledge increase uncertainty. We applied a spatial agent-based model to predict the reinvasion of a well-studied species, the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), across an urban area onto a peninsula that is the site of an elimination campaign in Aotearoa New Zealand. We represented fine-scale urban habitat heterogeneity in a land cover layer and tested management scenarios that varied four factors: the density of possums remaining following an elimination attempt, the maintenance trap density on the peninsula, and effort expended toward preventing reinvasion by means of a high-density trap buffer at the peninsula isthmus or control of the source population adjacent to the peninsula. We found that achieving complete elimination on the peninsula was crucial to avoid rapid repopulation. The urban isthmus was predicted to act as a landscape barrier and restrict immigration onto the peninsula, but reliance on this barrier alone would fail to prevent repopulation. In combination, complete elimination, buffer zone, and source population control could reduce the probability of possum repopulation to near zero. Our findings support urban landscape barriers as one tool for sequential invasive mammal elimination but reaffirm that novel methods to expose residual individuals to control will be necessary to secure elimination in management zones. Work to characterize the urban ecology of many invasive mammals is still needed.

Using the IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa to inform decision-making

The Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) is an important tool for biological invasion policy and management and has been adopted as an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) standard to measure the severity of environmental impacts caused by organisms living outside their native ranges. EICAT has already been incorporated into some national and local decision-making procedures, making it a particularly relevant resource for addressing the impact of non-native species. Recently, some of the underlying conceptual principles of EICAT, particularly those related to the use of the precautionary approach, have been challenged. Although still relatively new, guidelines for the application and interpretation of EICAT will be periodically revisited by the IUCN community, based on scientific evidence, to improve the process. Some of the criticisms recently raised are based on subjectively selected assumptions that cannot be generalized and may harm global efforts to manage biological invasions. EICAT adopts a precautionary principle by considering a species' impact history elsewhere because some taxa have traits that can make them inherently more harmful. Furthermore, non-native species are often important drivers of biodiversity loss even in the presence of other pressures. Ignoring the precautionary principle when tackling the impacts of non-native species has led to devastating consequences for human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystems, as well as poor management outcomes, and thus to significant economic costs. EICAT is a relevant tool because it supports prioritization and management of non-native species and meeting and monitoring progress toward the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) Target 6.

The wild cost of invasive feral animals worldwide

Invasive non-native species are a growing burden to economies worldwide. While domesticated animals (i.e. livestock, beasts of burden or pets) have enabled our ways of life and provide sustenance for countless individuals, they may cause substantial impacts when they escape or are released (i.e. become feral) and then become invasive with impacts. We used the InvaCost database to evaluate monetary impacts from species in the Domestic Animal Diversity Information System database. We found a total cost of $141.95 billion from only 18 invasive feral species. Invasive feral livestock incurred the highest costs at $90.03 billion, with pets contributing $50.93 billion and beasts of burden having much lower costs at $0.98 billion. Agriculture was the most affected sector at $80.79 billion, followed by the Environment ($43.44 billion), and Authorities-Stakeholders sectors ($5.52 billion). Damage costs comprised the majority ($124.94 billion), with management and mixed damage-management costs making up the rest ($9.62 and $7.38 billion, respectively). These economic impacts were observed globally, where Oceania, North America and Europe were the most impacted regions. Islands recorded a higher economic burden than continental areas, with livestock species dominating costs more on islands than mainlands compared to other feral species. The costs of invasive feral animals were on average twice higher than those of wild species. The management of invasive feral populations requires higher investment, updated regulations, and comprehensive risk assessments. These are especially complex when considering the potential conflicts arising from interventions with species that have close ties to humans. Effective communication to raise public awareness of the impacts of feral populations and appropriate legislation to prevent or control such invasive feral populations will substantially contribute to minimizing their socioeconomic and environmental impacts.

Antifertility effects of EP-1 (quinestrol and levonorgestrel) on Pacific rats (Rattus exulans)

Pest rodents pose a serious threat to island biodiversity. Fertility control could be an alternative approach to control the impact of rodents on these islands. In this study, we examined the antifertility effects of EP-1 baits containing quinestrol (E) and levonorgestrel (P) using a dose of 50 ppm E and P at three different ratios (E:P ratio = 1:2, 1:1, and 2:1) on Pacific rats (Rattus exulans) in the Xisha Islands, Hainan, China. Compared to the control group, all animals in EP-1 treatment groups showed significantly decreased food intake and body weight. In treated males, there were obvious abnormalities in testis structure and a significant decrease of relative seminal vesicle weight, but no significant effect on relative uterine and ovarian weights (g kg-1 body weight), or ovarian structure in females. Adding 8% sucrose to the original 50-ppm baits (E:P ratio = 1:1) significantly increased bait palatability for males and females. This dose induced uterine edema and abnormalities of ovarian structure in females but had no significant negative effect on the relative testis, epididymis, and seminal vesicle weights (g kg-1 body weight) or sperm density in males. In summary, 50-ppm EP-1 (1:1) baits have the potential to disrupt the fertility of females, and 8% sucrose addition to the EP-1 baits (E:P ratio = 1:1) could improve bait palatability. This dose disrupted the testis structure in males. Future studies are needed to improve bait acceptance and assess the antifertility effects of EP-1 (1:1) on Pacific rats in captive breeding trials and under field conditions.

Seabirds boost coral reef resilience

Global climate change threatens tropical coral reefs, yet local management can influence resilience. While increasing anthropogenic nutrients reduce coral resistance and recovery, it is unknown how the loss, or restoration, of natural nutrient flows affects reef recovery. Here, we test how natural seabird-derived nutrient subsidies, which are threatened by invasive rats, influence the mechanisms and patterns of reef recovery following an extreme marine heatwave using multiyear field experiments, repeated surveys, and Bayesian modeling. Corals transplanted from rat to seabird islands quickly assimilated seabird-derived nutrients, fully acclimating to new nutrient conditions within 3 years. Increased seabird-derived nutrients, in turn, caused a doubling of coral growth rates both within individuals and across entire reefs. Seabirds were also associated with faster recovery time of Acropora coral cover (<4 years) and more dynamic recovery trajectories of entire benthic communities. We conclude that restoring seabird populations and associated nutrient pathways may foster greater coral reef resilience through enhanced growth and recovery rates of corals.

Conserving the evolutionary history of birds

In the midst of the sixth mass extinction, limited resources are forcing conservationists to prioritize which species and places will receive conservation action. Evolutionary distinctiveness measures the isolation of a species on its phylogenetic tree. Combining a species' evolutionary distinctiveness with its globally endangered status creates an EDGE score. We use EDGE scores to prioritize the places and species that should be managed to conserve bird evolutionary history. We analyzed all birds in all countries and important bird areas. We examined parrots, raptors, and seabirds in depth because these groups are especially threatened and relatively speciose. The three focal groups had greater median threatened evolutionary history than other taxa, making them important for conserving bird evolutionary history. Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, New Zealand, and the Philippines were especially critical countries for bird conservation because they had the most threatened evolutionary history for endemic birds and are important for parrots, raptors, and seabirds. Increased enforcement of international agreements for the conservation of parrots, raptors, and seabirds is needed because these agreements protect hundreds of millions of years of threatened bird evolutionary history. Decisive action is required to conserve the evolutionary history of birds into the Anthropocene.

An invasive appetite: Combining molecular and stable isotope analyses to reveal the diet of introduced house mice (Mus musculus) on a small, subtropical island

House mice (Mus musculus) pose a conservation threat on islands, where they adversely affect native species' distributions, densities, and persistence. On Sand Island of Kuaihelani, mice recently began to depredate nesting adult mōlī (Laysan Albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis). Efforts are underway to eradicate mice from Sand Island, but knowledge of mouse diet is needed to predict ecosystem response and recovery following mouse removal. We used next-generation sequencing to identify what mice eat on Sand Island, followed by stable isotope analysis to estimate the proportions contributed by taxa to mouse diet. We collected paired fecal and hair samples from 318 mice between April 2018 to May 2019; mice were trapped approximately every eight weeks among four distinct habitat types to provide insight into temporal and spatial variation. Sand Island's mice mainly consume arthropods, with nearly equal (but substantially smaller) contributions of C3 plants, C4 plants, and mōlī. Although seabird tissue is a small portion of mouse diet, mice consume many detrital-feeding arthropods in and around seabird carcasses, such as isopods, flesh flies, ants, and cockroaches. Additionally, most arthropods and plants eaten by mice are non-native. Mouse diet composition differs among habitat types but changes minimally throughout the year, indicating that mice are not necessarily limited by food source availability or accessibility. Eradication of house mice may benefit seabirds on Sand Island (by removing a terrestrial, non-native predator), but it is unclear how arthropod and plant communities may respond and change. Non-native and invasive arthropods and plants previously consumed (and possibly suppressed) by mice may be released post-eradication, which could prevent recovery of native taxa. Comprehensive knowledge of target species' diet is a critical component of eradication planning. Dietary information should be used both to identify and to monitor which taxa may respond most strongly to invasive species removal and to assess if proactive, pre-eradication management activities are warranted.

Determination of residue levels of rodenticide in rodent livers offered novel diphacinone baits by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry

A specific and sensitive liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed and validated for the determination of the anticoagulant rodenticide diphacinone (DPN) in mouse and rat liver. Tissue samples were extracted with a mixture of water and acetonitrile containing ammonium hydroxide. The extracted sample was cleaned up with a combination of liquid-liquid partitioning and dispersive solid phase extraction. Chromatographic separation was achieved using a Waters X-Bridge BEH C-18 LC column (50 mm, 2.1 mm ID, 2.5 μm particle size) with detection on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer in multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode. The monitored transition for DPN was m/z 339.0 → 167.0 for quantitation and 339.0 → 172.0 and 339.0 → 116.0 for confirmation. The linear range was 0.5 to 375 ng/mL. The average precision of DPN, represented by the relative standard deviation of the observed concentrations, was 7.2% (range = 0.97% - 20.4%) and the average accuracy, represented by the relative error, was 5.8% (range = 1.06% - 14.7%). The recovery of DPN fortified at 3 different levels averaged 106% in rat liver and 101% in mouse liver. The established method was successfully used to determine DPN residue levels in Polynesian rats (Rattus exulans) and mice (Mus musculus) fed two different formulated baits containing DPN. The observed residue levels were consistent with values observed in other rodent studies. However, the amount of bait consumed was lower for the novel baits evaluated in this study.

Open water dreissenid mussel control projects: lessons learned from a retrospective analysis

Dreissenid mussels are one of the most problematic aquatic invasive species (AIS) in North America, causing substantial ecological and economic effects. To date, dreissenid mussel control efforts in open water have included physical, biological, and chemical methods. The feasibility of successful dreissenid mussel management or eradication in lakes is relatively undocumented in the freshwater management literature. This review presents information on 33 open water dreissenid mussel control projects in 23 North America lakes. We reviewed data from past dreissenid mussel control projects and identified patterns and knowledge gaps to help inform adaptive management strategies. The three key lessons learned include (1) pre- and post-treatment survey methods that are designed to meet management objectives are beneficial, e.g., by sampling for all life stages and taking into account that no survey method is completely comprehensive; (2) defining the treatment area-particularly ensuring it is sufficiently large to capture all life stages present-is critical to meeting management objectives; and (3) control projects provide an opportunity to collect water chemistry, effects on non-target organisms, and other efficacy-related data that can inform safe and effective adaptive management.

Recovery of insular seabird populations years after rodent eradication

Seabirds have been particularly affected by invasive non-native species, which has led to the implementation of numerous eradication campaigns for the conservation of these keystone and highly vulnerable species. Although the benefits of eradication of invasive non-native species for seabird conservation have been demonstrated, the recovery kinetics of different seabird populations on islands after eradication remains poorly evaluated. We conducted long-term monitoring of the number of breeding pairs of seven seabird species on a small atoll, Surprise Island, New Caledonia (southwestern tropical Pacific). Marine avifauna of the island were surveyed yearly 4 years before to 4 years after rodent eradication (conducted in 2005), and we conducted multiple one-time surveys from ∼10 years before and ∼15 years after eradication. We sought to determine how different seabird species responded to the eradication of invasive rodents in an insular environment. Three species responded positively (two- to 10-fold increase in population size) to eradication with differences in lag time and sensitivity. The number of breeding pairs increased (effect sizes = 0.49-0.95 and 0.35-0.52) for two species over 4 years post-eradication due to immigration. One species had a longer (at least 5 years) response time than all others; breeding pairs increased for over 10 years after eradication. Long-term sampling was necessary to observe the responses of the seabird populations on the island because of the delayed response of a species to eradication not visible in the first years after eradication. Our results confirmed the positive effects of eradication of invasive non-native species on seabirds and emphasize the importance of mid- and long-term pre- and posteradication surveys to decipher the mechanisms of seabird recovery and confirm the benefits of eradication for conservation purposes.

Spatial ecology to strengthen invasive snake management on islands

Knowledge on the spatial ecology of invasive predators positively contributes to optimizing their management, especially when involving cryptic and secretive species, such as snakes. However, this information is lacking for most invasive snakes, particularly on islands, where they are known to cause severe ecological and socio-economic impacts. This research is focused on assessing the spatial ecology of the California kingsnake (Lampropeltis californiae) on Gran Canaria to strengthen management actions. We monitored 15 radio-tagged individuals once per day on 9-11 days per month from July 2020 to June 2021 to calculate the species' home range and describe annual activity patterns in the invaded range. To account for the species' diel activity during the emergence period, we additionally monitored snakes from January to May 2021 during three consecutive days per month in four different time intervals each day. We detected movement (consecutive detections at least 6 m apart) in 31.68% of the 1146 detections during the whole monitoring period. Movements most frequently detected were shorter than 100 m (82.24%), and among them the range 0-20 m was the most recurrent (27.03%). The mean distance of movement was 62.57 ± 62.62 m in 1-2 days. Average home range was 4.27 ± 5.35 ha-calculated with the Autocorrelated Kernel Density Estimator (AKDE) at 95%-and did not significantly vary with SVL nor sex. We detected an extremely low value of motion variance (0.76 ± 2.62 σ²m) compared to other studies, with a general inactivity period from November to February, January being the less active month of the year. Diel activity was higher during central and evening hours than during early morning and night. Our results should be useful to improve control programs for this invasive snake (e.g., trap placement and visual survey guidance) on Gran Canaria. Our research highlights the importance of gathering spatial information on invasive snakes to enhance control actions, which can contribute to the management of secretive invasive snakes worldwide.

Tracking the global application of conservation translocation and social attraction to reverse seabird declines

The global loss of biodiversity has inspired actions to restore nature across the planet. Translocation and social attraction actions deliberately move or lure a target species to a restoration site to reintroduce or augment populations and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Given limited conservation funding and rapidly accelerating extinction trajectories, tracking progress of these interventions can inform best practices and advance management outcomes. Seabirds are globally threatened and commonly targeted for translocation and social attraction ("active seabird restoration"), yet no framework exists for tracking these efforts nor informing best practices. This study addresses this gap for conservation decision makers responsible for seabirds and coastal management. We systematically reviewed active seabird restoration projects worldwide and collated results into a publicly accessible Seabird Restoration Database. We describe global restoration trends, apply a systematic process to measure success rates and response times since implementation, and examine global factors influencing outcomes. The database contains 851 active restoration events in 551 locations targeting 138 seabird species; 16% of events targeted globally threatened taxa. Visitation occurred in 80% of events and breeding occurred in 76%, on average 2 y after implementation began (SD = 3.2 y). Outcomes varied by taxonomy, with the highest and quickest breeding response rates for Charadriiformes (terns, gulls, and auks), primarily with social attraction. Given delayed and variable response times to active restoration, 5 y is appropriate before evaluating outcomes. The database and results serve as a model for tracking and evaluating restoration outcomes, and is applicable to measuring conservation interventions for additional threatened taxa.

Economic costs of protecting islands from invasive alien species

Biological invasions represent a key threat to insular systems and have pronounced impacts across environments and economies. The ecological impacts have received substantial focus, but the socioeconomic impacts are poorly synthesized across spatial and temporal scales. We used the InvaCost database, the most comprehensive assessment of published economic costs of invasive species, to assess economic impacts on islands worldwide. We analyzed socioeconomic costs across differing expenditure types and examined temporal trends across islands that differ in their political geography-island nation states, overseas territories, and islands of continental countries. Over US$36 billion in total costs (including damages and management) has occurred on islands from 1965 to 2020 due to invasive species' impacts. Nation states incurred the greatest total and management costs, and islands of continental countries incurred costs of similar magnitude, both far higher than those in overseas territories. Damage-loss costs were significantly lower, but with qualitatively similar patterns across differing political geographies. The predominance of management spending differs from the pattern found for most countries examined and suggests important knowledge gaps in the extent of many damage-related socioeconomic impacts. Nation states spent the greatest proportion of their gross domestic products countering these costs, at least 1 order of magnitude higher than other locations. Most costs were borne by authorities and stakeholders, demonstrating the key role of governmental and nongovernmental bodies in addressing island invasions. Temporal trends revealed cost increases across all island types, potentially reflecting efforts to tackle invasive species at larger, more socially complex scales. Nevertheless, the already high total economic costs of island invasions substantiate the role of biosecurity in reducing and preventing invasive species arrivals to reduce strains on limited financial resources and avoid threats to sustainable development goals.

Long-term macrophyte and snail community responses to population declines of invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus)

A central focus of invasive species research has been on human efforts to eradicate invaders or reduce their abundance to mitigate the worst of their impacts. In some cases, however, populations of invasive species decline without human intervention, which may inform management responses to these invaders. Such is the case of the invasive rusty crayfish (Faxonius rusticus) in northern Wisconsin, USA, where systematic population monitoring since 1975 has revealed population declines in approximately half of the lakes surveyed. Population declines of invasive species without human intervention remain understudied, but there is even less research on how communities respond following such declines. Using 10 lakes in Vilas County, Wisconsin, we investigated community recovery of habitat (macrophytes) and prey (freshwater snails) of F. rusticus following up to 33 years of declines of this invader in some lakes using a dataset with a rare, long-term span over which consistent data were collected (1987, 2002, 2011, and 2020). We compared community responses in lakes where F. rusticus populations reached a peak and subsequently declined (boom-bust lakes) and lakes where our dataset only captured the decline of F. rusticus (bust lakes) to reference lakes with consistently high or low crayfish abundance over time. We found partial recovery of macrophytes and snails in the bust and boom-bust lakes where F. rusticus has declined, with recovery of macrophyte abundance and richness in the boom-bust lakes achieving levels observed in the low-crayfish reference lakes. Snail abundance and richness increased after declines of F. rusticus, though not to the level of the low-crayfish reference lakes, suggesting that snail recovery may lag macrophyte recovery because snails are dependent on macrophytes and associated periphyton for habitat. The recovery we document potentially represents long-term ecosystem resilience of lakes to biological invasions. Our results suggest that lake communities may recover without active restoration interventions after invasive crayfish population declines, although identifying which lakes experience these natural declines remains a priority for future research and management.

Long-term trajectories of non-native vegetation on islands globally

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.

Counting the Capital's cats: Estimating drivers of abundance of free-roaming cats with a novel hierarchical model

Free-roaming cats are a conservation concern in many areas but identifying their impacts and developing mitigation strategies requires a robust understanding of their distribution and density patterns. Urban and residential areas may be especially relevant in this process because free-roaming cats are abundant in these anthropogenic landscapes. Here, we estimate the occupancy and density of free-roaming cats in Washington D.C. and relate these metrics to known landscape and social factors. We conducted an extended camera trap survey of public and private spaces across D.C. and analyzed data collected from 1483 camera deployments from 2018 to 2020. We estimated citywide cat distribution by fitting hierarchical occupancy models and further estimated cat abundance using a novel random thinning spatial capture-recapture model that allows for the use of photos that can and cannot be identified to individual. Within this model, we utilized individual covariates that provided identity exclusions between photos of unidentifiable cats with inconsistent coat patterns, thus increasing the precision of abundance estimates. This combined model also allowed for unbiased estimation of density when animals cannot be identified to individual at the same rate as for free-roaming cats whose identifiability depended on their coat characteristics. Cat occupancy and abundance declined with increasing distance from residential areas, an effect that was more pronounced in wealthier neighborhoods. There was noteworthy absence of cats detected in larger public spaces and forests. Realized densities ranged from 0.02 to 1.75 cats/ha in sampled areas, resulting in a district-wide estimate of ~7296 free-roaming cats. Ninety percent of cat detections lacked collars and nearly 35% of known individuals were ear-tipped, indicative of district Trap-Neuter-Return (TNR) programs. These results suggest that we mainly sampled and estimated the unowned cat subpopulation, such that indoor/outdoor housecats were not well represented. The precise estimation of cat population densities is difficult due to the varied behavior of subpopulations within free-roaming cat populations (housecats, stray and feral cats), but our methods provide a first step in establishing citywide baselines to inform data-driven management plans for free-roaming cats in urban environments.

Resource competition drives an invasion-replacement event among shrew species on an island

Invasive mammals are responsible for the majority of native species extinctions on islands. While most of these extinction events will be due to novel interactions between species (e.g. exotic predators and naive prey), it is more unusual to find incidences where a newly invasive species causes the decline/extinction of a native species on an island when they normally coexist elsewhere in their overlapping mainland ranges. We investigated if resource competition between two insectivorous small mammals was playing a significant role in the rapid replacement of the native pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in the presence of the recently invading greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula on the island of Ireland. We used DNA metabarcoding of gut contents from >300 individuals of both species to determine each species' diet and measured the body size (weight and length) during different stages of the invasion in Ireland (before, during and after the species come into contact with one another) and on a French island where both species have long coexisted (acting as a natural 'control' site). Dietary composition, niche width and overlap and body size were compared in these different stages. The body size of the invasive C. russula and composition of its diet changes between when it first invades an area and after it becomes established. During the initial stages of the invasion, individual shrews are larger and consume larger sized invertebrate prey species. During later stages of the invasion, C. russula switches to consuming smaller prey taxa that are more essential for the native species. As a result, the level of interspecific dietary overlap increases from between 11% and 14% when they first come into contact with each other to between 39% and 46% after the invasion. Here we show that an invasive species can quickly alter its dietary niche in a new environment, ultimately causing the replacement of a native species. In addition, the invasive shrew could also be potentially exhausting local resources of larger invertebrate species. These subsequent changes in terrestrial invertebrate communities could have severe impacts further downstream on ecosystem functioning and services.

Seabirds subsidize terrestrial food webs and coral reefs in a tropical rat-invaded archipelago

Allochthonous resource fluxes mediated by organisms crossing ecosystem boundaries may be essential for supporting the structure and function of resource-limited environments, such as tropical islands and surrounding coral reefs. However, invasive species, such as black rats, thrive on tropical islands and disrupt the natural pathways of nutrient subsidies by reducing seabird colonies. Here, we used stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon to examine the role of seabirds in subsidizing the terrestrial food webs and adjacent coral reefs in the Abrolhos Archipelago, Southwest Atlantic Ocean. By sampling invasive rats and multiple ecosystem compartments (soil, plants, grasshoppers, tarantulas, and lizards) within and outside seabird colonies, we showed that seabird subsidies led to an overall enrichment in ¹⁵ N across the food web on islands. However, contrary to other studies, δ¹⁵ N values were consistently lower within the seabird colonies, suggesting that a higher seabird presence might produce a localized depletion in ¹⁵ N in small islands influenced by seabirds. In contrast, the nitrogen content (%N) in plants and soils was higher inside the colonies, corresponding to a higher effect of seabirds at the base of the trophic web. Among consumers, lizards and invasive rats seemed to obtain allochthonous resources from subsidized terrestrial organisms outside the colony. Inside the colony, however, they showed a more direct consumption of marine matter, suggesting that subsidies benefit these native and invasive animals both directly and indirectly. Nonetheless, in coral reefs, scleractinian corals assimilated seabird-derived nitrogen only around the two smaller and lower-elevation islands, as demonstrated by the substantially higher δ¹⁵ N values in relation to the reference areas. This provides evidence that island morphology may influence the incorporation of seabird nutrients in coral reefs around rat-invaded islands, likely because guano lixiviation toward seawater is facilitated in small and low-elevation terrains. Overall, these results showed that seabirds affected small islands across all trophic levels within and outside colonies and that these effects spread outward to coral reefs, evidencing resiliency of seabird subsidies even within a rat-invaded archipelago. Because rats are consumers of seabird chicks and eggs, however, rat eradication could potentially benefit the terrestrial and nearshore ecosystems through increased subsides carried by seabirds.

Global economic costs of mammal invasions

Invasive alien mammals cause huge adverse ecological impact on human society and natural ecosystems. Although studies have estimated economic costs of mammal invasions at regional scales, there is lacking the large-scale comprehensive assessment of currency costs for this taxon. Here, we estimated the economic cost of invasive alien mammals on a global scale using the most comprehensive global database compiling economic costs of invasive species (InvaCost). From 1960 to 2021, mammal invasions caused costs (summing damage costs and management costs) of US$ 462.49 billion to the global economy, while the total amount of robust costs reached US$ 52.49 billion. The majority of the total economic costs corresponded to damage costs (90.27 %), while only 7.43 % were related to management cost. Economic costs showed an increasing trend over time. The distribution of costs was uneven among taxonomic groups and regions, with the global total cost highly biasing toward to 5 species (European rabbit, Domestic cat, Black rat, Wild boar and Coypu), and North America reporting much higher costs (60.78 % of total economic costs) than other regions. The total costs were borne by agriculture, environment, authorities stakeholders and other sectors. Geographic and taxonomic biases suggested that total economic costs caused by invasive alien mammals were underestimated. Integrated research efforts are needed to fill in knowledge gaps in the economic costs generated by mammal invasions and to identify the drivers of the economic costs.

Application of genetic and Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture analyses to design adaptive feral cat control in a large inhabited island

Faunas of oceanic islands have a high proportion of endemic species which contribute to the uniqueness of island communities. Island species are particularly naïve and vulnerable to alien predators, such as cats (Felis catus). On large, inhabited islands, where the complete eradication of feral cat populations is not considered feasible, control represents the best management option to lower their detrimental effects on native fauna. The first objective of our study was to investigate population genetics of feral cats of Réunion Island. The second objective was to understand the space use of feral cats established near the breeding colonies of the two endemic and endangered seabirds of Réunion Island, the Barau’s Petrel (Pterodroma baraui) and the Mascarene Petrel (Pseudobulweria aterrima). We evaluated genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow amongst six groups of feral cats located at a maximum of 10 km from known petrel colonies. We also analysed the behaviour and space use of one of these feral cat groups using camera-trap data and Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture (SECR) models. Genetic analyses revealed that feral cats were structured in three genetic clusters explained mostly by the island topography. Two clusters were observed at five sampled sites, suggesting high connectivity amongst these sites. The last cluster was found in only one site, suggesting high isolation. This site was a remote mountain area located in the vicinity of one of the main Barau’s Petrel colonies. The behavioural study was conducted on this isolated feral cat population. Mark recapture analysis suggested that feral cats were present at low density and had large home ranges, which is probably explained by reduced food availability. Finally, we make several recommendations for refining feral cat management programmes on inhabited islands.

Harnessing island-ocean connections to maximize marine benefits of island conservation

Islands support unique plants, animals, and human societies found nowhere else on the Earth. Local and global stressors threaten the persistence of island ecosystems, with invasive species being among the most damaging, yet solvable, stressors. While the threat of invasive terrestrial mammals on island flora and fauna is well recognized, recent studies have begun to illustrate their extended and destructive impacts on adjacent marine environments. Eradication of invasive mammals and restoration of native biota are promising tools to address both island and ocean management goals. The magnitude of the marine benefits of island restoration, however, is unlikely to be consistent across the globe. We propose a list of six environmental characteristics most likely to affect the strength of land-sea linkages: precipitation, elevation, vegetation cover, soil hydrology, oceanographic productivity, and wave energy. Global databases allow for the calculation of comparable metrics describing each environmental character across islands. Such metrics can be used today to evaluate relative potential for coupled land-sea conservation efforts and, with sustained investment in monitoring on land and sea, can be used in the future to refine science-based planning tools for integrated land-sea management. As conservation practitioners work to address the effects of climate change, ocean stressors, and biodiversity crises, it is essential that we maximize returns from our management investments. Linking efforts on land, including eradication of island invasive mammals, with marine restoration and protection should offer multiplied benefits to achieve concurrent global conservation goals.

Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird's perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan's birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan's forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002-0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07-0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (>0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts.

Leveraging a natural murine meiotic drive to suppress invasive populations

Invasive rodents are a major cause of environmental damage and biodiversity loss, particularly on islands. Unlike insects, genetic biocontrol strategies including population-suppressing gene drives with biased inheritance have not been developed in mice. Here, we demonstrate a gene drive strategy (t_CRISPR) that leverages super-Mendelian transmission of the t haplotype to spread inactivating mutations in a haplosufficient female fertility gene (Prl). Using spatially explicit individual-based in silico modeling, we show that t_CRISPR can eradicate island populations under a range of realistic field-based parameter values. We also engineer transgenic t_CRISPR mice that, crucially, exhibit biased transmission of the modified t haplotype and Prl mutations at levels our modeling predicts would be sufficient for eradication. This is an example of a feasible gene drive system for invasive alien rodent population control.

Population trends of seabirds in Mexican Islands at the California Current System

The Baja California Pacific Islands (BCPI) is a seabird hotspot in the southern California Current System supporting 129 seabird breeding populations of 23 species and over one million birds annually. These islands had a history of environmental degradation because of invasive alien species, human disturbance, and contaminants that caused the extirpation of 27 seabird populations. Most of the invasive mammals have been eradicated and colonies have been restored with social attraction techniques. We have recorded the number of breeding pairs annually for most of the colonies since 2008. To assess population trends, we analyzed these data and show results for 19 seabird species on ten island groups. The maximum number of breeding pairs for each nesting season was used to estimate the population growth rate (λ) for each species at every island colony. We performed a moving block bootstrap analysis to assess whether seabird breeding populations are increasing or decreasing. San Benito, Natividad, and San Jerónimo are the top three islands in terms of abundance of breeding pairs. The most widespread species is Cassin’s Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) with 14 colonies. Thirty-one populations of 14 species are significantly increasing while eleven populations of seven species are decreasing. We did not find statistical significance for 19 populations, however, 15 have λ>1 which suggest they are growing. Twelve of the 18 species for which we estimated a regional population trend are significantly increasing, including seven surface-nesting species: Brandt’s Cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus), Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), Caspian Tern (Hydroprogne caspia), Double-crested Cormorant (P. auritus), Elegant Tern (Thalasseus elegans), Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) and Western Gull (Larus occidentalis), and five burrow-nesting species: Ainley’s (Hydrobates cheimomnestes), Ashy (H. homochroa) and Townsend’s (H. socorroensis) Storm-Petrels, and Craveri’s (Synthliboramphus craveri) and Guadalupe (S. hypoleucus) Murrelets. The BCPI support between 400,000 and 1.4 million breeding individuals annually. Our results suggest that these islands support healthy and growing populations of seabirds that have shown to be resilient to extreme environmental conditions such as the “Blob”, and that such resilience has been strengthen from conservation and restoration actions such as the eradication of invasive mammals, social attraction techniques and island biosecurity.

The global contribution of invasive vertebrate eradication as a key island restoration tool

Islands are global hotspots for biodiversity and extinction, representing ~ 5% of Earth's land area alongside 40% of globally threatened vertebrates and 61% of global extinctions since the 1500s. Invasive species are the primary driver of native biodiversity loss on islands, though eradication of invasive species from islands has been effective at halting or reversing these trends. A global compendium of this conservation tool is essential for scaling best-practices and enabling innovations to maximize biodiversity outcomes. Here, we synthesize over 100 years of invasive vertebrate eradications from islands, comprising 1550 eradication attempts on 998 islands, with an 88% success rate. We show a significant growth in eradication activity since the 1980s, primarily driven by rodent eradications. The annual number of eradications on islands peaked in the mid-2000s, but the annual area treated continues to rise dramatically. This trend reflects increases in removal efficacy and project complexity, generating increased conservation gains. Our synthesis demonstrates the collective contribution of national interventions towards global biodiversity outcomes. Further investment in invasive vertebrate eradications from islands will expand biodiversity conservation while strengthening biodiversity resilience to climate change and creating co-benefits for human societies.

Confirming the broadscale eradication success of nutria (Myocastor coypus) from the Delmarva Peninsula, USA

Nutria (Myocastor coypus) were introduced to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay, USA in the 1940s. They reached peak densities in the late 1990s, causing massive wetland loss. Beginning in 2002, a systematic plan to eradicate nutria from the 1.7M ha Delmarva Peninsula was implemented. Since that time the nutria population has been effectively reduced, and no nutria have been detected since May 2015. A lack of detection does not equate with complete absence. We address the following three questions. (1) What is the expected probability of nutria eradication from the Delmarva Peninsula as of the end of 2020? (2) If the probability of eradication is below the management target of 0.95, how much more surveillance is required? (3) How sensitive is the estimated probability of eradication to varying levels of public surveillance and modelled population growth rates? These questions were addressed by employing a stochastic spatially-explicit surveillance model that uses data in which no nutria were detected to quantify the probability of complete absence (PoA) over the entire Delmarva Peninsula. We applied an analytical framework that decomposes the spatial risk of survivors and data into management zones, and took advantage of low-cost public reporting of nutria sightings. Active surveillance by the eradication program included detector dog and tracker surveys, shoreline surveys, detection with ground and water platforms (with hair snares), and camera traps. Results showed that the PoA increased with time and surveillance from a beginning PoA in May 2015 of  0.01 to a mean of 0.75 at the end of 2020. This indicates that the PoA on the Delmarva was well below the target threshold of 0.95 for declaring eradication success. However, given continued surveillance without detection, a PoA of 0.95 would be achieved by June 2022. This analysis provides an objective mechanism to align the expectations of policy makers, managers and the public on when eradication of nutria from the entire Delmarva Peninsula should be declared successful.