Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines

Influenza vaccine allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources

Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Many national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. In this study, we parameterized an age-structured nonseasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10 to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when compared with more concentrated annual vaccine distribution. When targeting a single age group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse, however, was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed a lower mean mortality and a lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.

Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources

Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Most national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. Here, we parameterized an age-structured non-seasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10% to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when comparing to vaccination strategies focused on a particular time of year. When targeting a single age-group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse however was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed lower mean mortality and lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.

Vaccine Mandates and Influenza Vaccination During the Pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether a state influenza vaccine mandate and elevated community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity affected a child's probability of receiving an influenza vaccine during the 2020-2021 influenza season, given the child's previous vaccination history.

METHODS

Longitudinal cohort study using enrollment and claims data of 71 333 children aged 6 months to 18 years living in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine, from a regional insurer. Schoolchildren in Massachusetts were exposed to a new influenza vaccine mandate in the 2020-2021 season. Community COVID-19 severity was measured using county-level total cumulative confirmed case counts between March 2020 and August 2020 and linked by zip codes. The primary outcome of interest was a claim for any influenza vaccine in the 2020-2021 season.

RESULTS

Children living in a state with a vaccine mandate during the 2020-2021 influenza season had a higher predicted probability of receiving an influenza vaccine than those living in states without a mandate (47.7%, confidence interval 46.4%-49.0%, vs 21.2%, confidence interval 18.8%-23.6%, respectively, for previous nonvaccinators, and 78.2%, confidence interval 77.4%-79.0%, vs 58.2%, confidence interval 54.7%-61.7%, for previous vaccinators); the difference was 6.5 percentage points greater among previous nonvaccinators (confidence interval 1.3%-11.7%). Previously vaccinated children had a lower predicted probability of receiving an influenza vaccine if they lived in a county with the highest COVID-19 severity compared with a county with low COVID-19 severity (72.1%, confidence interval 70.5%-73.7%, vs 77.3%, confidence interval 74.7%-79.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Strategies to improve uptake of influenza vaccination may have differential impact based on previous vaccination status and should account for community factors.

Potential business model for a European vaccine R&D infrastructure and its estimated socio-economic impact

Background

Research infrastructures are facilities or resources that have proven fundamental for supporting scientific research and innovation. However, they are also known to be very expensive in their establishment, operation and maintenance. As by far the biggest share of these costs is always borne by public funders, there is a strong interest and indeed a necessity to develop alternative business models for such infrastructures that allow them to function in a more sustainable manner that is less dependent on public financing.

Methods

In this article, we describe a feasibility study we have undertaken to develop a potentially sustainable business model for a vaccine research and development (R&D) infrastructure. The model we have developed integrates two different types of business models that would provide the infrastructure with two different types of revenue streams which would facilitate its establishment and would be a measure of risk reduction. For the business model we are proposing, we have undertaken an ex ante impact assessment that estimates the expected impact for a vaccine R&D infrastructure based on the proposed models along three different dimensions: health, society and economy.

Results

Our impact assessment demonstrates that such a vaccine R&D infrastructure could achieve a very significant socio-economic impact, and so its establishment is therefore considered worthwhile pursuing.

Conclusions

The business model we have developed, the impact assessment and the overall process we have followed might also be of interest to other research infrastructure initiatives in the biomedical field.

Maternal antibodies induced by a live attenuated vaccine protect neonatal mice from cytomegalovirus

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) frequently causes congenital infections, resulting in birth defects and developmental disorders. A vaccine is needed, but unavailable. We analyzed the potential of CMV mutants, lacking their STAT2 antagonists to serve as live attenuated vaccine viruses in mice. Infections with attenuated viruses elicited strong ELISA-reactive binding IgG responses and induced neutralizing antibodies as well as antibodies stimulating cellular Fcγ receptors, including the antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC)-eliciting receptors FcγRIII/CD16 and FcγRIV. Accordingly, vaccinated mice were fully protected against challenge infections. Female mice vaccinated prior to gestation transmitted CMV-specific IgG to their offspring, which protected the progeny from perinatal infections in a mouse model for congenital CMV disease. To define the role of maternal antibodies, female mice either capable or incapable of producing antibodies were vaccinated and subsequently bred to males of the opposite genotype. Challenge infections of the genotypically identical F1 generation revealed the indispensability of maternal antibodies for vaccine-induced protection against cytomegaloviruses.

A data-driven spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework for COVID-19

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines have been introduced, their allocation is a challenging problem. We propose a data-driven, spatially-specific vaccine allocation framework that aims to minimize the number of COVID-19-related deaths or infections. The framework combines a regional risk-level classification model solved by a self-organizing map neural network, a spatially-specific disease progression model, and a vaccine allocation model that considers vaccine production capacity. We use data obtained from Wuhan and 35 other cities in China from January 26 to February 11, 2020, to avoid the effects of intervention. Our results suggest that, in region-wise distribution of vaccines, they should be allocated first to the source region of the outbreak and then to the other regions in order of decreasing risk whether the outcome measure is the number of deaths or infections. This spatially-specific vaccine allocation policy significantly outperforms some current allocation policies.

Emergency medical resource allocation among hospitals with non-regressive production technology: A DEA-based approach

This paper proposes an approach for medical resource allocation among hospitals under public health emergencies based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). First, the DEA non-regressive production technology is adopted to ensure that the DMU can always refer to the most advanced production technology throughout all production periods. Based on the non-regressive production technology, two efficiency evaluation models are presented to calculate the efficiencies of DMUs before and after resource allocation. Our theoretical analysis shows that all the DMUs can be efficient after medical resource allocation, and thus a novel resource allocation possibility set is developed. Further, two objectives are considered and a bi-objective resource allocation model is developed. One objective is to maximize the output target realizability of the DMUs, while the other is to ensure the allocated resource to each DMU fits with its operation size, preperformance, and operation practice (i.e., proportion of critically ill patients). Additionally, a trade-off model is proposed to solve the bi-objective model to obtain the final resource allocation results. The proposed approach contributes by ensuring that the medical resources are allocated in such a way that they can all be efficiently used as well as considering multiple objectives and practical constraints that make the approach more fitted with the practical application scenarios. Finally, a case study of 30 hospitals in Wuhan during the COVID-19 epidemic is applied to illustrate the proposed approach.

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.

Impact of vaccine effectiveness and coverage on preventing large mumps outbreaks on college campuses: Implications for vaccination strategy

Recent mumps outbreaks among highly vaccinated populations, including college students, have called into question the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of routine two-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR2) immunization. We aimed to estimate the VE required for a novel vaccination strategy (e.g., MMR booster dose, novel vaccine) to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses. Using mumps college outbreak data reported to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 2016-2017, we estimated current MMR2 VE using the screening method and implemented a compartmental model of mumps transmission. We performed 2000 outbreak simulations, following introduction of an infectious person to a population of 10,000, over ranges of MMR2 vaccine coverage (VC) and VE (30.0-99.0%). We compared the impact of varying VC and VE on mumps and mumps orchitis case counts and determined VE thresholds that ensured < 5.0% and < 2.0% of the outbreak simulations exceeded 20 and 100 mumps cases. Median estimated MMR2 VE in reported mumps outbreaks was 60.5% and median reported MMR2 VC was 97.5%. Simulated mumps case count was more sensitive to changes in VE than in VC. The opposite was true for simulated mumps orchitis case count, though orchitis case count was small (mean <10 cases across simulations for VE near 60.5% and VC near 97.5%). At 97.5% VC, 73.1% and 78.2% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 100 mumps cases. Maintaining 97.5% VC, 82.4% and 85.9% VE were required for < 5.0% and < 2.0% of outbreaks, respectively, to exceed 20 cases. We conclude that maintaining current levels of MMR2 VC, a novel vaccination strategy aimed at reducing mumps transmission must achieve at least 73.1-85.9% VE among young adults to prevent large mumps outbreaks on college campuses.

Efficacy information influences intention to take COVID-19 vaccine

OBJECTIVES

A successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic requires achieving high levels of vaccine uptake. We tested whether directly contrasting the high efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines with the lower efficacy of the annual flu vaccine would increase intentions to take a COVID-19 vaccine.

DESIGN

A pre-registered online study of 481 participants compared four information conditions: (1) no information; (2) COVID-19 Vaccine Information Only; and COVID-19 Vaccine Information combined with flu vaccine information suggesting either (3) 60% efficacy or (4) 40% efficacy; we measured COVID-19 and flu vaccine intentions along with several other vaccine-related variables.

METHODS

The Prolific platform was used to recruit 481 UK participants (64% female; aged between 18 and 85 years) who had been pre-screened to have intermediate levels of vaccine hesitancy. After reading a short text (~200 words) about COVID-19 vaccines, participants were asked about their vaccination intentions.

RESULTS

Providing information about the safety and efficacy of the new COVID-19 vaccines resulted in vaccination intentions that were, on average, 0.39 standard deviations (SDs) higher than those in the no information condition; providing the same COVID vaccine efficacy information in the context of information about flu vaccine efficacy resulted in a further significant increase in vaccination intentions that were 0.68 SD higher than those in the no information condition. This positive contrast effect for the COVID-19 vaccine was not associated with reduced flu vaccine intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination intentions can be strengthened through a simple messaging intervention that utilizes context effects to increase perceived response efficacy.

Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

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Seasonal influenza vaccine programmes usually target at-risk and older individuals.

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We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model for eight European settings.

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Older people benefit from adjuvanted or high-dose trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines.

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Adopting mass paediatric influenza vaccination is also likely to be cost-effective.

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Results rest on vaccine costs, willingness to vaccinate and unknown long-term effects.

Introduction

Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million).

Methods

We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to “improved” (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%.

Results

In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels.

Conclusion

Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.

COVID-19 vaccination and unemployment risk: lessons from the Italian crisis

This paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect of mobility restrictions on excess deaths and furlough workers. Results confirm that the first countrywide lockdown has effectively curtailed the COVID-19 epidemics restricting it mainly to the northern part of the country, with the drawback of a countrywide increase in unemployment risk. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 1% leads to a mortality reduction of 0.6%, but it induces an increase of 10% in Wage Guarantee Funds allowed hours. We discuss return-to-work policies and prioritizing policies for administering COVID-19 vaccines in the most advanced stage of a vaccination campaign when the healthy active population is left to be vaccinated.

Changes in Attitudes and Beliefs Concerning Vaccination and Influenza Vaccines between the First and Second COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: A Longitudinal Study

Perceptions of the risks of vaccine-preventable diseases and preventive behaviors change over time. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may have modified laypeople's attitudes towards routine vaccinations. In this longitudinal study, we aimed to assess changes in attitudes and beliefs concerning (influenza) vaccines between the first and second COVID-19 pandemic waves. A total of 1979 participants completed both 2020 and 2021 surveys. After one year, more interviewees agreed that vaccines were fundamental and should be mandatory (77.3% vs. 75.0%). Analogously, willingness to undergo influenza vaccination increased (p < 0.001) from 44.1% to 48.6%. This increase was seen in subjects aged ≥35 years. Previous influenza vaccinations, receipt of a COVID-19 vaccine, positive attitudes towards (influenza) vaccination, male sex, and older age were the main correlates of willingness to receive the 2021/22 influenza vaccine. Totals of 12.6% and 11.8% had no intention to receive the next seasonal influenza and COVID-19 vaccines, respectively. Most respondents favored a hypothetical combined influenza/COVID-19 vaccine (73.7%) or influenza and COVID-19 vaccine co-administration (67.5%). In Italy, influenza and COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy and refusal are common. Effective public health strategies to pursue higher uptake of both vaccines are urgently needed.

Projected impact of a plant-derived vaccine on the burden of seasonal influenza in Canada

Objective

The analysis estimates projected population outcomes resulting from the introduction of a plant-derived influenza vaccine formulated as quadrivalent virus-like particles (QVLP) in Canada.

Methods

Using Monte Carlo simulations, the number of influenza cases, general practitioner visits, inpatient admissions, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths due to influenza-associated illness were estimated under no vaccination, plant-derived QVLP vaccines only, or egg-derived vaccines only. The base case analysis examined the adult Canadian population in two subgroups: 18–64 years of age during the 2017/18 season and 65+ years of age during the 2018/19 season. Efficacy data were obtained from QVLP clinical trials. Vaccine effectiveness data for egg-derived vaccines were calculated from observational studies from the corresponding influenza seasons. Scenario analyses examined the impact of varying absolute vaccine effectiveness or vaccination coverage from base case inputs.

Results

In the base case analysis, plant-derived QVLP vaccines led to an additional reduction in the burden of influenza over egg-derived vaccines for both population subgroups. In the 18–64 subgroup, QVLP vaccines were associated with 2.63% (48,029; 95% credible interval [Crl]: 42,723–53,336) fewer influenza cases than egg-derived vaccines. In the 65+ subgroup, QVLP vaccines led to 4.82% (27,918; 95% Crl: 25,440–30,397) fewer influenza cases, and reductions in the number of inpatient admissions by 4.77% (1167; 95% CrI: 851–1483) and deaths by 4.75% (326; 95% CrI: 107–546) compared to egg-derived vaccines. Further reductions were observed in scenario analyses considering the potential increase in vaccine coverage.

Conclusion

Use of plant-derived QVLP influenza vaccines may contribute to greater reductions in influenza cases and influenza-related outcomes, including inpatient admissions and deaths, compared to egg-derived vaccines currently available in Canada.

Optimizing Spatial Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine by Agent-Based Spatiotemporal Simulations

Optimizing allocation of vaccine, a highly scarce resource, is an urgent and critical issue during fighting against on-going COVID-19 epidemic. Prior studies suggested that vaccine should be prioritized by age and risk groups, but few of them have considered the spatial prioritization strategy. This study aims to examine the spatial heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission in the city naturally, and optimize vaccine distribution strategies considering spatial prioritization. We proposed an integrated spatial model of agent-based model and SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered). It simulated spatiotemporal process of COVID-19 transmission in a realistic urban context. Individual movements were represented by trajectories of 8,146 randomly sampled mobile phone users on December 28, 2016 in Guangzhou, China, 90% of whom aged 18-60. Simulations were conducted under seven scenarios. Scenarios 1 and 2 examined natural spreading process of COVID-19 and its final state of herd immunity. Scenarios 3-6 applied four vaccination strategies (random strategy, age strategy, space strategy, and space & age strategy), and identified the optimal vaccine strategy. Scenario 7 assessed the most appropriate vaccine coverage. The results demonstrates herd immunity is heterogeneously distributed in space, thus, vaccine intervention strategies should be spatialized. Among four strategies, space & age strategy is substantially most efficient, with 7.7% fewer in attack rate and 44 days longer than random strategy under 20% vaccine uptake. Space & age strategy requires 30%-40% vaccine coverage to control the epidemic, while the coverage for a random strategy is 60%-70% as a comparison. The application of our research would greatly improves the effectiveness of the vaccine usability.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Losing ground at the wrong time: trends in self-reported influenza vaccination uptake in Switzerland, Swiss Health Survey 2007-2017

OBJECTIVES

We studied time trends in seasonal influenza vaccination and associations with socioeconomic and health-related determinants in Switzerland, overall and in people aged ≥65 years.

DESIGN

Three cross-sectional surveys.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals who participated in the Swiss Health Surveys 2007, 2012 and 2017. We calculated the proportion reporting influenza vaccination in the last 12 months, and performed multivariable logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

We included 51 582 individuals in this analysis. The median age was 49 years (IQR 25-64), and 27 518 were women (53.3%). The proportion of reporting a history of influenza vaccination overall was 31.9% (95% CI 31.4 to 32.4); and dropped from 34.5% in 2007 to 28.8% in 2017. The uptake of vaccination within the past 12 months was 16% in 2007 and similar in 2012 and 2017 (around 14%). In people with chronic disease, uptake dropped from 43.8% in 2007 to 37.1% in 2012 and to 31.6% in 2017 (p<0.001). In people aged ≥65 years, uptake dropped from 47.8% in 2007 to 38.5% in 2012 to 36.2% in 2017 (p<0.001). In logistic regression, self-reported vaccination coverage decreased in the 65-75 years old (adjusted OR (aOR) 0.56, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.66 between 2007 and 2012; aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.03 between 2012 and 2017). Uptake was positively associated with the ≥65 age group, living in French-speaking and urban areas, history of smoking, bad self-reported health status, private/semiprivate health insurance, having a medical profession and having any underlying chronic disease.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccination coverage was low in older and chronically ill persons. Significant efforts are required in preparing for the influenza season 2020/2021 to reduce the double burden of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza. These efforts should include campaigns but also novel approaches using social media.

Social media effectiveness as a humanitarian response to mitigate influenza epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic

Influenza and COVID-19 are infectious diseases with significant burdens. Information and awareness on preventative techniques can be spread through the use of social media, which has become an increasingly utilized tool in recent years. This study developed a dynamic transmission model to investigate the impact of social media, particularly tweets via the social networking platform, Twitter on the number of influenza and COVID-19 cases of infection and deaths. We modified the traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR-V) model with an additional social media component, in order to increase the accuracy of transmission dynamics and gain insight on whether social media is a beneficial behavioral intervention for these infectious diseases. The analysis found that social media has a positive effect in mitigating the spread of contagious disease in terms of peak time, peak magnitude, total infected, and total death; and the results also showed that social media's effect has a non-linear relationship with the reproduction number R 0 and it will be amplified when a vaccine is available. The findings indicate that social media is an integral part in the humanitarian logistics of pandemic and emergency preparedness, and contributes to the literature by informing best practices in the response to similar disasters.

Strategic spatiotemporal vaccine distribution increases the survival rate in an infectious disease like Covid-19

Present hopes to conquer the Covid-19 epidemic are largely based on the expectation of a rapid availability of vaccines. However, once vaccine production starts, it will probably take time before there is enough vaccine for everyone, evoking the question how to distribute it best. While present vaccination guidelines largely focus on individual-based factors, i.e. on the question to whom vaccines should be provided first, e.g. to risk groups or to individuals with a strong social-mixing tendency, here we ask if a strategic spatiotemporal distribution of vaccines, e.g. to prioritize certain cities, can help to increase the overall survival rate of a population subject to an epidemic disease. To this end, we propose a strategy for the distribution of vaccines in time and space, which sequentially prioritizes regions with the most new cases of infection during a certain time frame and compare it with the standard practice of distributing vaccines demographically. Using a simple statistical model we find that, for a locally well-mixed population, the proposed strategy strongly reduces the number of deaths (by about a factor of two for basic reproduction numbers of [Formula: see text] and by about 35% for [Formula: see text]). The proposed vaccine distribution strategy establishes the idea that prioritizing individuals not only regarding individual factors, such as their risk of spreading the disease, but also according to the region in which they live can help saving lives. The suggested vaccine distribution strategy can be tested in more detailed models in the future and might inspire discussions regarding the importance of spatiotemporal distribution rules for vaccination guidelines.

Immunogenicity of seasonal inactivated influenza and inactivated polio vaccines among children in Senegal: Results from a cluster-randomized trial

Data on influenza vaccine immunogenicity in children are limited from tropical developing countries. We recently reported significant, moderate effectiveness of a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in a controlled, cluster-randomized trial in children in rural Senegal during 2009, a year of H3N2 vaccine mismatch (NCT00893906). We report immunogenicity of IIV3 and inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) from that trial. We evaluated hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) and polio antibody titers in response to vaccination of three age groups (6 through 35 months, 3 through 5 years, and 6 through 8 years). As all children were IIV naïve, each received two vaccine doses, although titers were assessed after only the first dose for subjects aged 6 through 8 years. Seroconversion rates (4-fold titer rise or increase from <1:10 to ≥1:40) were 74-87% for A/H1N1, 76-87% for A/H3N2, and 54-79% for B/Yamagata. Seroprotection rates (HAI titer ≥ 1:40) were 79-88% for A/H1N1, 88-96% for A/H3N2, and 52-74% for B/Yamagata. IIV responses were lowest in the youngest age group, and they were comparable between ages 3 through 5 years after two doses and 6 through 8 years after one dose. We found that baseline seropositivity (HAI titer ≥ 1:10) was an effect modifier of IIV response. Using a seroprotective titer (HAI titer ≥ 1:160) recommended for IIV evaluation in children, we found that among subjects who were seropositive at baseline, 69% achieved seroprotection for both A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, while among those who were seronegative at baseline, seroprotection was achieved in 11% for A/H1N1 and 22% for A/H3N2. The IPV group had high baseline polio antibody seropositivity and appropriate responses to vaccination. Our data emphasize the importance of a two-dose IIV3 series in vaccine naïve children. IIV and IPV vaccines were immunogenic in Senegalese children.

Technological approaches to streamline vaccination schedules, progressing towards single-dose vaccines

Vaccines represent the most successful medical intervention in history, with billions of lives saved. Although multiple doses of the same vaccine are typically required to reach an adequate level of protection, it would be advantageous to develop vaccines that induce protective immunity with fewer doses, ideally just one. Single-dose vaccines would be ideal to maximize vaccination coverage, help stakeholders to greatly reduce the costs associated with vaccination, and improve patient convenience. Here we describe past attempts to develop potent single dose vaccines and explore the reasons they failed. Then, we review key immunological mechanisms of the vaccine-specific immune responses, and how innovative technologies and approaches are guiding the preclinical and clinical development of potent single-dose vaccines. By modulating the spatio-temporal delivery of the vaccine components, by providing the appropriate stimuli to the innate immunity, and by designing better antigens, the new technologies and approaches leverage our current knowledge of the immune system and may synergize to enable the rational design of next-generation vaccination strategies. This review provides a rational perspective on the possible development of future single-dose vaccines.

Rethinking assessment of success of mitigation strategies for elephant-induced crop damage

Crop damage is the most common impact of negative interactions between people and elephants and poses a significant threat to rural livelihoods and conservation efforts. Numerous approaches to mitigate and prevent crop damage have been implemented throughout Africa and Asia. Despite the documented high efficacy of many approaches, losses remain common, and in many areas, damage is intensifying. We examined the literature on effectiveness of crop-damage-mitigation strategies and identified key gaps in evaluations. We determined there is a need to better understand existing solutions within affected communities and to extend evaluations of effectiveness beyond measurement of efficacy to include rates of and barriers to adoption. We devised a conceptual framework for evaluating effectiveness that incorporates the need for increased emphasis on adoption and can be used to inform the design of future crop-damage mitigation assessments for elephants and conflict species more widely. The ability to prevent crop loss in practice is affected by both the efficacy of a given approach and rates of uptake among target users. We identified the primary factors that influence uptake as local attitudes, sustainability, and scalability and examined each of these factors in detail. We argue that even moderately efficacious interventions may make significant progress in preventing damage if widely employed and recommend that wherever possible scientists and practitioners engage with communities to build on and strengthen existing solutions and expertise. When new approaches are required, they should align with local attitudes and fit within limitations on labor, financial requirements, and technical capacity.

Projected Population Benefit of Increased Effectiveness and Coverage of Influenza Vaccination on Influenza Burden in the United States

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is the best way to prevent influenza; however, greater benefits could be achieved. To help guide research and policy agendas, we aimed to quantify the magnitude of influenza disease that would be prevented through targeted increases in vaccine effectiveness (VE) or vaccine coverage (VC).

METHODS

For 3 influenza seasons (2011-12, 2015-16, and 2017-18), we used a mathematical model to estimate the number of prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medically attended illnesses, and hospitalizations across 5 age groups. Compared with estimates of prevented illness during each season, given observed VE and VC, we explored the number of additional outcomes that would have been prevented from a 5% absolute increase in VE or VC or from achieving 60% VE or 70% VC.

RESULTS

During the 2017-18 season, compared with the burden already prevented by influenza vaccination, a 5% absolute VE increase would have prevented an additional 1 050 000 illnesses and 25 000 hospitalizations (76% among those aged ≥65 years), while achieving 60% VE would have prevented an additional 190 000 hospitalizations. A 5% VC increase would have resulted in 785 000 fewer illnesses (56% among those aged 18-64 years) and 11 000 fewer hospitalizations; reaching 70% would have prevented an additional 39 000 hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Small, attainable improvements in effectiveness or VC of the influenza vaccine could lead to substantial additional reductions in the influenza burden in the United States. Improvements in VE would have the greatest impact in reducing hospitalizations in adults aged ≥65 years, and VC improvements would have the largest benefit in reducing illnesses in adults aged 18-49 years.

Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir

Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.

Predominance of a Drifted Influenza A (H3N2) Clade and its Association with Age-specific Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Variations, Influenza Season 2018-2019

Background: Influenza A (H3N2) clade 3C.3a was the predominant influenza virus in Israel throughout the 2018-2019 season, constituting a drift from the influenza A (H3N2) vaccine. We estimated the end-of season vaccine effectiveness (VE) by age, among community patients with influenza-like illness (ILI), considering the hemagglutinin (HA) gene mutations and amino acid substitutions of influenza A (H3N2) viruses detected. Methods: Nose-throat samples were analyzed for the presence of influenza virus, type/subtype, and HA gene sequence. HA gene sequences and amino acid substitutions were compared to the influenza A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 (H3N2)-like 2018-2019 vaccine virus, and a phylogenetic tree was generated. Influenza VE against influenza A (H3N2) was estimated using the test-negative design. VE was estimated by age group and by 15 year moving age intervals. Results: In total, 90% of the influenza A (H3N2) viruses belonged to the 3C.3a clade, constituting a unique situation in the northern hemisphere. Adjusted all-age influenza A (H3N2) VE was −3.5% (95% CI: −51.2 to 29.1). Although adjusted VEs were very low among infants, children, and young adults, a VE of 45% (95% CI: −19.2 to 74.6) was estimated among adults aged ≥45 years old. Conclusions: The higher VE point estimates among older adults may be related to previous exposure to similar influenza viruses.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2017-2018 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

The severity of the 2017-2018 influenza season in the United States was high, with influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominating. Here, we report influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and estimate the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the 2017-2018 influenza season.

METHODS

We used national age-specific estimates of 2017-2018 influenza vaccine coverage and disease burden. We estimated VE against medically attended reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza virus infection in the ambulatory setting using a test-negative design. We used a compartmental model to estimate numbers of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination.

RESULTS

The VE against outpatient, medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza was 38% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31%-43%), including 22% (95% CI, 12%-31%) against influenza A(H3N2), 62% (95% CI, 50%-71%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 50% (95% CI, 41%-57%) against influenza B. We estimated that influenza vaccination prevented 7.1 million (95% CrI, 5.4 million-9.3 million) illnesses, 3.7 million (95% CrI, 2.8 million-4.9 million) medical visits, 109 000 (95% CrI, 39 000-231 000) hospitalizations, and 8000 (95% credible interval [CrI], 1100-21 000) deaths. Vaccination prevented 10% of expected hospitalizations overall and 41% among young children (6 months-4 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite 38% VE, influenza vaccination reduced a substantial burden of influenza-associated illness, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States during the 2017-2018 season. Our results demonstrate the benefit of current influenza vaccination and the need for improved vaccines.

Improving immunological insights into the ferret model of human viral infectious disease

Ferrets are a well-established model for studying both the pathogenesis and transmission of human respiratory viruses and evaluation of antiviral vaccines. Advanced immunological studies would add substantial value to the ferret models of disease but are hindered by the low number of ferret-reactive reagents available for flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry. Nevertheless, progress has been made to understand immune responses in the ferret model with a limited set of ferret-specific reagents and assays. This review examines current immunological insights gained from the ferret model across relevant human respiratory diseases, with a focus on influenza viruses. We highlight key knowledge gaps that need to be bridged to advance the utility of ferrets for immunological studies.

Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines

The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.

Modelling microbial infection to address global health challenges

The continued growth of the world’s population and increased interconnectivity heighten the risk that infectious diseases pose for human health worldwide. Epidemiological modelling is a tool that can be used to mitigate this risk by predicting disease spread or quantifying the impact of different intervention strategies on disease transmission dynamics. We illustrate how four decades of methodological advances and improved data quality have facilitated the contribution of modelling to address global health challenges, exemplified by models for the HIV crisis, emerging pathogens and pandemic preparedness. Throughout, we discuss the importance of designing a model that is appropriate to the research question and the available data. We highlight pitfalls that can arise in model development, validation and interpretation. Close collaboration between empiricists and modellers continues to improve the accuracy of predictions and the optimization of models for public health decision-making.

Optimizing spatial allocation of seasonal influenza vaccine under temporal constraints

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VaccIntDesign) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VaccIntDesign problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GreedyAlloc, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US.

Annual vaccination campaigns continue to be one of the prime measures which help alleviate the burden of seasonal influenza. Due to production and logistic constraints, there is a need for prioritization policies associated with vaccine deployment. While there is general consensus on age-based or risk-based prioritization, spatial optimization of vaccine allocation has not yet been explored in sufficient detail. In order to do this, we develop a mechanistic model of influenza spread across the United States, and propose a greedy mechanism for spatial optimization. We test the methodology on different realistic scenarios with temporal constraints on vaccine production.

Secondary structure of the segment 5 genomic RNA of influenza A virus and its application for designing antisense oligonucleotides

Influenza virus causes seasonal epidemics and dangerous pandemic outbreaks. It is a single stranded (-)RNA virus with a segmented genome. Eight segments of genomic viral RNA (vRNA) form the virion, which are then transcribed and replicated in host cells. The secondary structure of vRNA is an important regulator of virus biology and can be a target for finding new therapeutics. In this paper, the secondary structure of segment 5 vRNA is determined based on chemical mapping data, free energy minimization and structure-sequence conservation analysis for type A influenza. The revealed secondary structure has circular folding with a previously reported panhandle motif and distinct novel domains. Conservations of base pairs is 87% on average with many structural motifs that are highly conserved. Isoenergetic microarray mapping was used to additionally validate secondary structure and to discover regions that easy bind short oligonucleotides. Antisense oligonucleotides, which were designed based on modeled secondary structure and microarray mapping, inhibit influenza A virus proliferation in MDCK cells. The most potent oligonucleotides lowered virus titer by ~90%. These results define universal for type A structured regions that could be important for virus function, as well as new targets for antisense therapeutics.

Imperfect vaccine and hysteresis

Addressing vaccine compliance problems is of particular relevance and significance to public health. Despite resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases and public awareness of vaccine importance, why is it so challenging to boost population vaccination coverage to desired levels especially in the wake of declining vaccine uptake? To understand this puzzling phenomenon, here we study how social imitation dynamics of vaccination can be impacted by the presence of imperfect vaccine, which only confers partial protection against the disease. Besides weighing the perceived cost of vaccination with the risk of infection, the effectiveness of vaccination is also an important factor driving vaccination decisions. We discover that there can exist multiple stable vaccination equilibria if vaccine efficacy is below a certain threshold. Furthermore, our bifurcation analysis reveals the occurrence of hysteresis loops of vaccination rate with respect to changes in the perceived vaccination cost as well as in the vaccination effectiveness. Moreover, we find that hysteresis is more likely to arise in spatial populations than in well-mixed populations, even for parameter choices that do not allow for bifurcation in the latter. Our work shows that hysteresis can appear as an unprecedented roadblock for the recovery of vaccination uptake, thereby helping explain the persistence of vaccine compliance problem.

Spatial and temporal risk as drivers for adoption of foot and mouth disease vaccination

Identifying the drivers of vaccine adoption decisions under varying levels of perceived disease risk and benefit provides insight into what can limit or enhance vaccination uptake. To address the relationship of perceived benefit relative to temporal and spatial risk, we surveyed 432 pastoralist households in northern Tanzania on vaccination for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Unlike human health vaccination decisions where beliefs regarding adverse, personal health effects factor heavily into perceived risk, decisions for animal vaccination focus disproportionately on dynamic risks to animal productivity. We extended a commonly used stated preference survey methodology, willingness to pay, to elicit responses for a routine vaccination strategy applied biannually and an emergency strategy applied in reaction to spatially variable, hypothetical outbreaks. Our results show that households place a higher value on vaccination as perceived risk and household capacity to cope with resource constraints increase, but that the episodic and unpredictable spatial and temporal spread of FMD contributes to increased levels of uncertainty regarding the benefit of vaccination. In addition, concerns regarding the performance of the vaccine underlie decisions for both routine and emergency vaccination, indicating a need for within community messaging and documentation of the household and population level benefits of FMD vaccination.