Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change

Functional Traits Predict Outcomes of Current and Novel Competition Under Warmer Climate

Functional traits offer a potential avenue to generalize and forecast the impacts of changing competition on plant communities, including changing outcomes of competition among species that currently interact (current competition) or that will interact in the future following range shifts (novel competition). However, it remains unclear how well traits explain variation in the outcomes of current and novel competition as well as the underlying processes determining coexistence or competitive exclusion, under changing climate. Here, we interacted pairs of high and low-elevation species in three sites across an elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps. For each species pair, we quantified the population-level outcomes of competition (invasion growth rates), relative fitness differences, and niche overlap and related these to 15 functional traits that were measured in each site. Most traits were significantly associated with invasion growth rates at the low elevation, where species had greater relative fitness differences, but these associations were much weaker towards higher elevations. This appears to be because traits, particularly those associated with light competition, captured species' relative fitness differences at lower elevations, but not at the high elevation site, highlighting that the predictive ability of traits can depend on environmental context. The amplified relative fitness differences towards lower elevations suggest that climate warming may increase the likelihood of competitive exclusion. In addition, novel competitors tended to show greater niche overlap than current competitors, leading to stronger overall competitive effects. However, in general, trait differences predicted competitive outcomes of novel and current competitors similarly well, suggesting that traits can predict interactions between species that do not yet interact. Our study reinforces the importance of considering changing interactions for predicting species responses to climate change and provides experimental evidence supporting the usefulness of functional trait differences in forecasting the impacts of future plant interactions under changing climate.

Ecosystem synchrony: an emerging property to elucidate ecosystem responses to global change

Understanding ecosystem responses to global change have long challenged scientists due to notoriously complex properties arising from the interplay between biological and environmental factors. We propose the concept of ecosystem synchrony - that is, similarity in the temporal fluctuations of an ecosystem function between multiple ecosystems - to overcome this challenge. Ecosystem synchrony can manifest due to spatially correlated environmental fluctuations (Moran effect), exchange of energy, nutrients, and organic matter and similarity in biotic characteristics across ecosystems. By taking advantage of long-term surveys, remote sensing and the increased use of high-frequency sensors to assess ecosystem functions, ecosystem synchrony can foster our understanding of the coordinated ecosystem responses at unexplored spatiotemporal scales, identify emerging portfolio effects among ecosystems, and deliver signals of ecosystem perturbations.

Genetic response of a perennial grass to warm and wet environments interacts and is associated with trait means as well as plasticity

The potential for rapid evolution is an important mechanism allowing species to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Although such potential has been largely studied in various short-lived organisms, to what extent we can observe similar patterns in long-lived plant species, which often dominate natural systems, is largely unexplored. We explored the potential for rapid evolution in Festuca rubra, a long-lived grass with extensive clonal growth dominating in alpine grasslands. We used a field sowing experiment simulating expected climate change in our model region. Specifically, we exposed seeds from five independent seed sources to novel climatic conditions by shifting them along a natural climatic grid and explored the genetic profiles of established seedlings after 3 years. Data on genetic profiles of plants selected under different novel conditions indicate that different climate shifts select significantly different pools of genotypes from common seed pools. Increasing soil moisture was more important than increasing temperature or the interaction of the two climatic factors in selecting pressure. This can indicate negative genetic interaction in response to the combined effects or that the effects of different climates are interactive rather than additive. The selected alleles were found in genomic regions, likely affecting the function of specific genes or their expression. Many of these were also linked to morphological traits (mainly to trait plasticity), suggesting these changes may have a consequence on plant performance. Overall, these data indicate that even long-lived plant species may experience strong selection by climate, and their populations thus have the potential to rapidly adapt to these novel conditions.

Impact of changing climate on bryophyte contributions to terrestrial water, carbon, and nitrogen cycles

Bryophytes, including the lineages of mosses, liverworts, and hornworts, are the second-largest photoautotroph group on Earth. Recent work across terrestrial ecosystems has highlighted how bryophytes retain and control water, fix substantial amounts of carbon (C), and contribute to nitrogen (N) cycles in forests (boreal, temperate, and tropical), tundra, peatlands, grasslands, and deserts. Understanding how changing climate affects bryophyte contributions to global cycles in different ecosystems is of primary importance. However, because of their small physical size, bryophytes have been largely ignored in research on water, C, and N cycles at global scales. Here, we review the literature on how bryophytes influence global biogeochemical cycles, and we highlight that while some aspects of global change represent critical tipping points for survival, bryophytes may also buffer many ecosystems from change due to their capacity for water, C, and N uptake and storage. However, as the thresholds of resistance of bryophytes to temperature and precipitation regime changes are mostly unknown, it is challenging to predict how long this buffering capacity will remain functional. Furthermore, as ecosystems shift their global distribution in response to changing climate, the size of different bryophyte-influenced biomes will change, resulting in shifts in the magnitude of bryophyte impacts on global ecosystem functions.

Long-term shift towards shady and nutrient-rich habitats in Central European temperate forests

Biodiversity world-wide has been under increasing anthropogenic pressure in the past century. The long-term response of biotic communities has been tackled primarily by focusing on species richness, community composition and functionality. Equally important are shifts between entire communities and habitat types, which remain an unexplored level of biodiversity change. We have resurveyed > 2000 vegetation plots in temperate forests in central Europe to capture changes over an average of five decades. The plots were assigned to eight broad forest habitat types using an algorithmic classification system. We analysed transitions between the habitat types and interpreted the trend in terms of changes in environmental conditions. We identified a directional shift along the combined gradients of canopy openness and soil nutrients. Nutrient-poor open-canopy forest habitats have declined strongly in favour of fertile closed-canopy habitats. However, the shift was not uniform across the whole gradients. We conclude that the shifts in habitat types represent a century-long successional trend with significant consequences for forest biodiversity. Open forest habitats should be urgently targeted for plant diversity restoration through the implementation of active management. The approach presented here can be applied to other habitat types and at different spatio-temporal scales.

Co-occurrence of native and invasive macroalgae might be facilitated under global warming

Climate change is driving compositional shifts in ecological communities directly by affecting species and indirectly through changes in species interactions. For example, competitive hierarchies can be inversed when competitive dominants are more susceptible to climate change. The brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus is a foundation species in the Baltic Sea, experiencing novel interactions with the invasive red seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla, which is known for its high tolerance to environmental stress. We investigated the direct and interactive effects of warming and co-occurrence of the two algal species on their performance, by applying four climate change-relevant temperature scenarios: 1) cooling ) 2 °C below ambient - representing past conditions), 2) ambient summer temperature (18 °C), 3) IPCC RCP2.6 warming scenario (1 °C above ambient), and 4) RCP8.5 warming (3 °C above ambient) for 30 days and two compositional levels (mono and co-cultured algae) in a fully-crossed design. The RCP8.5 warming scenario increased photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrients' uptake rates of mono- and co-cultured G. vermiculophylla while growth was reduced. An increase in photosynthesis and essential nutrients' uptake and, at the same time, a growth reduction might result from increasing stress and energy demand of G. vermiculophylla under warming. In contrast, the growth of mono-cultured F. vesiculosus significantly increased in the highest warming treatment (+3 °C). The cooling treatment (-2 °C) exerted a slight negative effect only on co-cultured F. vesiculosus photosynthesis, compared to the ambient treatment. Interestingly, at ambient and warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios) treatments, both F. vesiculosus and G. vermiculophylla appear to benefit from the presence of each other. Our results suggest that short exposure of F. vesiculosus to moderate or severe global warming scenarios may not directly affect or even slightly enhance its performance, while G. vermiculophylla net performance (growth) could be directly hampered by warming.

A spatially explicit trait-based approach uncovers changes in assembly processes under warming

The re-assembly of plant communities during climate warming depends on several concurrent processes. Here, we present a novel framework that integrates spatially explicit sampling, plant trait information and a warming experiment to quantify shifts in these assembly processes. By accounting for spatial distance between individuals, our framework allows separation of potential signals of environmental filtering from those of different types of competition. When applied to an elevational transplant experiment in the French Alps, we found common signals of environmental filtering and competition in all communities. Signals of environmental filtering were generally stronger in alpine than in subalpine control communities, and warming reduced this filter. Competition signals depended on treatments and traits: Symmetrical competition was dominant in control and warmed alpine communities, while hierarchical competition was present in subalpine communities. Our study highlights how distance-dependent frameworks can contribute to a better understanding of transient re-assembly dynamics during environmental change.

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A test of local adaptation to drought in germination and seedling traits in populations of two alpine forbs across a 2000 mm/year precipitation gradient

Seed regeneration is a critical stage in the life histories of plants, affecting species' abilities to maintain local populations, evolve, and disperse to new sites. In this study, we test for local adaptations to drought in germination and seedling growth of two alpine forbs with contrasting habitat preferences: the alpine generalist Veronica alpina and the snowbed specialist Sibbaldia procumbens. We sampled seeds of each species from four populations spanning a precipitation gradient from 1200 to 3400 mm/year in western Norway. In a growth chamber experiment, we germinated seeds from each population at 10 different water potentials under controlled light and temperature conditions. Drought led to lower germination percentage in both species, and additionally, slower germination, and more investment in roots for V. alpina. These responses varied along the precipitation gradient. Seeds from the driest populations had higher germination percentage, shorter time to germination, and higher investments in the roots under drought conditions than the seeds from the wettest populations - suggesting local adaption to drought. The snowbed specialist, S. procumbens, had lower germination percentages under drought, but otherwise did not respond to drought in ways that indicate physiological or morphological adaptions to drought. S. procumbens germination also did not vary systematically with precipitation of the source site, but heavier-seeded populations germinated to higher rates and tolerated drought better. Our study is the first to test drought effects on seed regeneration in alpine plants populations from high-precipitation regions. We found evidence that germination and seedling traits may show adaptation to drought even in populations from wet habitats. Our results also indicate that alpine generalists might be more adapted to drought and show more local adaptations in drought responses than snowbed specialists.

Cross-scale regulation of seasonal microclimate by vegetation and snow in the Arctic tundra

Climate warming is inducing widespread vegetation changes in Arctic tundra ecosystems, with the potential to alter carbon and nutrient dynamics between vegetation and soils. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of how variation in vegetation and topography influences fine-scale temperatures ("microclimate") that mediate these dynamics, and at what resolution vegetation needs to be sampled to capture these effects. We monitored microclimate at 90 plots across a tundra landscape in western Greenland. Our stratified random study design covered gradients of topography and vegetation, while nested plots (0.8-100 m2 ) enabled comparison across different sampling resolutions. We used Bayesian mixed-effect models to quantify the direct influence of plot-level topography, moisture and vegetation on soil, near-surface and canopy-level temperatures (-6, 2, and 15 cm). During the growing season, colder soils were predicted by shrub cover (-0.24°C per 10% increase), bryophyte cover (-0.35°C per 10% increase), and vegetation height (-0.17°C per 1 cm increase). The same three factors also predicted the magnitude of differences between soil and above-ground temperatures, indicating warmer soils at low cover/height, but colder soils under closed/taller canopies. These findings were consistent across plot sizes, suggesting that spatial predictions of microclimate may be possible at the operational scales of satellite products. During winter, snow cover (+0.75°C per 10 snow-covered days) was the key predictor of soil microclimate. Topography and moisture explained little variation in the measured temperatures. Our results not only underline the close connection of vegetation and snow with microclimate in the Arctic tundra but also point to the need for more studies disentangling their complex interplay across tundra environments and seasons. Future shifts in vegetation cover and height will likely mediate the impact of atmospheric warming on the tundra soil environment, with potential implications for below-ground organisms and ecosystem functioning.

The role of plant functional groups mediating climate impacts on carbon and biodiversity of alpine grasslands

Plant removal experiments allow assessment of the role of biotic interactions among species or functional groups in community assembly and ecosystem functioning. When replicated along climate gradients, they can assess changes in interactions among species or functional groups with climate. Across twelve sites in the Vestland Climate Grid (VCG) spanning 4 °C in growing season temperature and 2000 mm in mean annual precipitation across boreal and alpine regions of Western Norway, we conducted a fully factorial plant functional group removal experiment (graminoids, forbs, bryophytes). Over six years, we recorded biomass removed, soil microclimate, plant community composition and structure, seedling recruitment, ecosystem carbon fluxes, and reflectance in 384 experimental and control plots. The dataset consists of 5,412 biomass records, 360 species-level biomass records, 1,084,970 soil temperature records, 4,771 soil moisture records, 17,181 plant records covering 206 taxa, 16,656 seedling records, 3,696 ecosystem carbon flux measurements, and 1,244 reflectance measurements. The data can be combined with longer-term climate data and plant population, community, ecosystem, and functional trait data collected within the VCG.

Measurement(s)	vegetation layer • ecosystem-wide respiration • ecosystem-wide photosynthesis • seedling development stage • temperature of soil • plant functional group biomass • volumetric soil moisture • reflectance spectrum
Technology Type(s)	Visual species identification and cover estimation • Licor gas analyzer • Visual species identification and estimation • ibutton temperature logger • Analytical Balance • SM300 soil mositure probe, Delta-T • GreenSeeker/Normalized Difference Vegetation Index measurements
Factor Type(s)	temperature • precipitation • Plant functional type composition
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Embryophyta
Sample Characteristic - Environment	alpine tundra biome
Sample Characteristic - Location	Vestlandet Region

Spatial coherence and the persistence of high diversity in spatially heterogeneous landscapes

Our planet hosts a variety of highly diverse ecosystems. The persistence of high diversity is generally attributed to factors such as the structure of interactions among species and the dispersal of species in metacommunities. Here, we show that large contiguous landscapes-that are characterized by high dispersal-facilitate high species richness due to the spatial heterogeneity in interspecies interactions. We base our analysis on metacommunities under high dispersal where species densities become equal across habitats (spatially coherent). We find that the spatially coherent metacommunity can be represented by an effective species interaction-web that has a significantly lower complexity than the constituent habitats. Our framework also explains how spatial heterogeneity eliminates differences in the effective interaction-web, providing a basis for deviations from the area-heterogeneity tradeoff. These results highlight the often-overlooked case of high dispersal where spatial coherence provides a novel mechanism for supporting high diversity in large heterogeneous landscapes.

Global change re-structures alpine plant communities through interacting abiotic and biotic effects

Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species' responses to the abiotic environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15-year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density-dependent and -independent processes underlying changes in species-group abundances over time. Density-dependent shifts in competitive interactions drove long-term changes in abundance of species-groups under global change while counteracting environmental drivers limited the growth response of the dominant species through density-independent mechanisms. Furthermore, competitive interactions shifted with the environment, primarily with nitrogen and drove non-linear abundance responses across environmental gradients. Our results highlight that global change can either reshuffle species hierarchies or further favour already-dominant species; predicting which outcome will occur requires incorporating both density-dependent and -independent mechanisms and how they interact across multiple global change factors.

Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa

A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.

The importance of ecophysiological traits in response of Festuca rubra to changing climate

Knowledge of the ability of plants to respond to climate change via phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation in ecophysiological traits and of the link of these traits to fitness is still limited. We studied the clonal grass Festuca rubra from 11 localities representing factorially crossed gradients of temperature and precipitation and cultivated them in growth chambers simulating temperature and moisture regime in the four extreme localities. We measured net photosynthetic rate, F_v /F_m , specific leaf area, osmotic potential and stomatal density and length and tested their relationship to proxies of fitness. We found strong phenotypic plasticity in photosynthetic traits and genetic differentiation in stomatal traits. The effects of temperature and moisture interacted (either as conditions of origin or growth chambers), as were effects of growth and origin. The relationships between the ecophysiological and fitness-related traits were significant but weak. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation of the species indicate the potential ability of F. rubra to adapt to novel climatic conditions. The most important challenge for the plants seems to be increasing moisture exposing plants to hypoxia. However, the plants have the potential to respond to increased moisture by changes in stomatal size and density and adjustments of osmotic potential. Changes in ecophysiological traits translate into variation in plant fitness, but the selection on the traits is relatively weak and depends on actual conditions. Despite the selection, the plants do not show strong local adaptation and local adaptation is thus likely not restricting species ability to adjust to novel conditions.

The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector

Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.

Addressing context dependence in ecology

Context dependence is widely invoked to explain disparate results in ecology. It arises when the magnitude or sign of a relationship varies due to the conditions under which it is observed. Such variation, especially when unexplained, can lead to spurious or seemingly contradictory conclusions, which can limit understanding and our ability to transfer findings across studies, space, and time. Using examples from biological invasions, we identify two types of context dependence resulting from four sources: mechanistic context dependence arises from interaction effects; and apparent context dependence can arise from the presence of confounding factors, problems of statistical inference, and methodological differences among studies. Addressing context dependence is a critical challenge in ecology, essential for increased understanding and prediction.

Improved phenological escape can help temperate tree seedlings maintain demographic performance under climate change conditions

Phenological escape, a strategy that deciduous understory plants use to access direct light in spring by leafing out before the canopy closes, plays an important role in shaping the recruitment of temperate tree seedlings. Previous studies have investigated how climate change will alter these dynamics for herbaceous species, but there is a knowledge gap related to how woody species such as tree seedlings will be affected. Here, we modeled temperate tree seedling leaf-out phenology and canopy close phenology in response to environmental drivers and used climate change projections to forecast changes to the duration of spring phenological escape. We then used these predictions to estimate changes in annual carbon assimilation while accounting for reduced carbon assimilation rates associated with hotter and drier summers. Lastly, we applied these estimates to previously published models of seedling growth and survival to investigate the net effect on seedling demographic performance. Our models predict that temperate tree seedlings will experience improved phenological escape and, therefore, increased spring carbon assimilation under climate change conditions. However, increased summer respiration costs will offset the gains in spring under extreme climate change leading to a net loss in annual carbon assimilation and demographic performance. Furthermore, we found that annual carbon assimilation predictions depend strongly on the species of nearby canopy tree that seedlings were planted near, with all seedlings projected to assimilate less carbon (and therefore experience worse demographic performance) when planted near Quercus rubra canopy trees as opposed to Acer saccharum canopy trees. We conclude that changes to spring phenological escape will have important effects on how tree seedling recruitment is affected by climate change, with the magnitude of these effects dependent upon climate change severity and biological interactions with neighboring adults. Thus, future studies of temperate forest recruitment should account for phenological escape dynamics in their models.

Evolutionary Rescue as a Mechanism Allowing a Clonal Grass to Adapt to Novel Climates

Filing gaps in our understanding of species' abilities to adapt to novel climates is a key challenge for predicting future range shifts and biodiversity loss. Key knowledge gaps are related to the potential for evolutionary rescue in response to climate, especially in long-lived clonally reproducing species. We illustrate a novel approach to assess the potential for evolutionary rescue using a combination of reciprocal transplant experiment in the field to assess performance under a changing climate and independent growth chamber assays to assess growth- and physiology-related plant trait maxima and plasticities of the same clones. We use a clonal grass, Festuca rubra, as a model species. We propagated individual clones and used them in a transplant experiment across broad-scale temperature and precipitation gradients, simulating the projected direction of climate change in the region. Independent information on trait maxima and plasticities of the same clones was obtained by cultivating them in four growth chambers representing climate extremes. Plant survival was affected by interaction between plant traits and climate change, with both trait plasticities and maxima being important for adaptation to novel climates. Key traits include plasticity in extravaginal ramets, aboveground biomass, and osmotic potential. The direction of selection in response to a given climatic change detected in this study mostly contradicted the natural trait clines indicating that short-term selection pressure as identified here does not match long-term selection outcomes. Long-lived clonal species exposed to different climatic changes are subjected to consistent selection pressures on key traits, a necessary condition for adaptation to novel conditions. This points to evolutionary rescue as an important mechanism for dealing with climate change in these species. Our experimental approach may be applied also in other model systems broadening our understanding of evolutionary rescue. Such knowledge cannot be easily deduced from observing the existing field clines.

Macroecological context predicts species' responses to climate warming

Context-dependencies in species' responses to the same climate change frustrate attempts to generalize and make predictions based on experimental and observational approaches in biodiversity science. Here, we propose predictability may be enhanced by explicitly incorporating macroecological context into analyses of species' responses to climate manipulations. We combined vascular plant species' responses to an 8-year, 12-site turf transplant climate change experiment set in southwestern Norway with climate niche data from the observed 151 species. We used the difference between a species' mean climate across their range and climate conditions at the transplant site ("climate differences") to predict colonization probability, extinction probability, and change in abundance of a species at a site. In analyses across species that ignore species-specific patterns, colonization success increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly warmer than the experimental target site. Extinction probability increased as species' distribution optima were increasingly colder than the target site. These patterns were reflected in change in abundance analyses. We found weak responses to increased precipitation in these oceanic climates. Climate differences were better predictors of species' responses to climate manipulations than range size. Interestingly, similar patterns were found when analyses focused on variation in species-specific responses across sites. These results provide an experimental underpinning to observational studies that report thermophilization of communities and suggest that space-for-time substitutions may be valid for predicting species' responses to climate warming, given other conditions are accounted for (e.g., soil nutrients). Finally, we suggest that this method of putting climate change experiments into macroecological context has the potential to generalize and predict species' responses to climate manipulations globally.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming"

Bertrand et al question our interpretation about warming effects on the thermophilization in forest plant communities and propose an alternative way to analyze climatic debt. We show that microclimate warming is a better predictor than macroclimate warming for studying forest plant community responses to warming. Their additional analyses do not affect or change our interpretations and conclusions.