Advancing the framework for considering the effects of climate change on worker safety and health

Understanding the interplay of occupational, public health, and climate-related risks for informal workers: A new framework with findings from Zimbabwe and India

Globally, there are 2 billion 'informal' workers, who lack access to social protection while facing profound health risks and socioeconomic exclusions. The informal economy has generated most jobs in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), but few studies have explored informal workers' complex health vulnerabilities, including in the face of climate change. This paper will discuss recent action-research in Indore (India), Harare, and Masvingo (Zimbabwe) with informal workers like vendors, waste-pickers, and urban farmers. We conducted qualitative interviews (N = 110 in India), focus group discussions (N = 207 in Zimbabwe), and a quantitative survey (N = 418 in Zimbabwe). Many informal workers live in informal settlements ('slums'), and we highlight the interrelated health risks at their homes and workplaces. We explore how climate-related threats-including heatwaves, drought, and floods-negatively affect informal workers' health and livelihoods. These challenges often have gender-inequitable impacts. We also analyse workers' individual and collective responses. We propose a comprehensive framework to reveal the drivers of health in the informal economy, and we complement this holistic approach with a new research agenda. Our framework highlights the socioeconomic, environmental, and political determinants of informal workers' health. We argue that informal workers may face difficult trade-offs, due to competing priorities in the face of climate change and other risks. Future interventions will need to recognise informal workers' array of risks and co-develop multifaceted solutions, thereby helping to avoid such impossible choices. We recommend holistic initiatives to foster health and climate resilience, as well as participatory action-research partnerships and qualitative, intersectional data-collection with informal workers.

Climate emergency and decent work

The climate crisis and loss of biodiversity, two closely related threats to human and planetary health, meet the criteria for the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare an international public health emergency, as occurred with COVID-19 (1), and urged by numerous scientific journals (2).

Attaining decent work, understood as “opportunities for women and men to work in conditions of freedom, equity, security and human dignity” (3), in the context of the climate emergency, creates a paradox for worker health. Outdoor workers (notably those in agriculture and construction), many of them informal workers, are among the populations most vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Simultaneously, they are inevitably at risk of exposure due to their role in maintaining the economy and functioning of society. A similar situation happened during the pandemic with essential workers (4). The WHO declaration of a public health emergency helped manage that global crisis.

A consequence of the industrial revolution The current climate crisis is a direct consequence of the Industrial Revolution where key processes emerged to explain the current situation: the appearance of wage labor and the working class, with consumerism as a basic economic driver, and the exploitation of natural resources – especially fossil fuels – in their own territories and in the colonies.

The extension of this capitalist model of society to virtually the entire planet is a reality. Now, we see how this economic system has brought both great harm and significant benefits.

Since its beginning, capitalism has wrought great suffering for people, masterfully described, among others, by Fredrich Engels in the Manchester of 1845 (5) or the London of 1838 in Charles Dickens` Oliver Twist (6). Although working conditions have since improved in many countries, there are still unbearable examples worldwide of worker exploitation and suffering. Among them, child labor, where 70% are working in agriculture (7) or some underregulated platform work (8), in a context of ever-increasing social inequalities (9).

On the other hand, due to improved working and life conditions, there has also been an extraordinary increase in the world population, from one billion at the beginning of the 19th century to approximately eight billion today, leading to a linear increase in life expectancy at birth, which doubled globally between the beginning of the 20th century and the present. In 2015, the Lancet Commission on Planetary Health (10) pointed out that never before has humanity faced such an unintended paradox. While human well-being has been improving, the planet has been degrading. A contradiction that can no longer be sustained.

We have lived as if our planet`s resources are unlimited. Based on comparisons to average temperature readings of the planet between 1850 and 1900, the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change estimated in its latest report that temperatures increased by 1.1° C between 2011 and 2020. This increase is very close to the 1.5° C established by the 2015 Paris Agreement as the limit beyond which climate impacts may become irreversible. Beyond any reasonable doubt, this is mostly attributable to the greenhouse effect produced by CO2 emissions, a consequence mainly of human activity and our way of living initiated by the Industrial Revolution.

This global increase in temperature, with heat waves, floods and other extreme temperature events as its most obvious manifestations, is already having effects on worker health (12, 13). Climate change is also having effects on the economy and the labor market, both in the primary (agriculture and fishing) and services (tourism) sectors, with reductions in productivity and employment. Estimates from the European Commission reveal an average loss of 3% of GDP among EU countries between 1980 and 2020 (14). Simultaneously, we should not forget that the capitalist society that emerged from the Industrial Revolution is based, among other pillars, on full or near full employment. As such, wages represent the main economic resource for the majority of people, in addition to being the primary source of wealth generation for society, on whose income and taxes the welfare state was built. Of course, employment means much more than wage earning, as it plays a fundamental role in the social processes that sustain human dignity and social cohesion (15). However, only approximately 50% of the employed population, mainly in high-income countries, enjoy decent employment with a living wage and social rights (16).

The resulting Gordian knot before us is enormous, with humanity facing the climate emergency and trying to move from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, while simultaneously seeking to maintain and increase decent employment for all Earth`s inhabitants, boosting the welfare states at the same time (17).

Controlling climate-related hazards and just green transition The alternatives proposed to escape this crossroads vary between those that propose a new paradigm, which radically changes the current economic model, betting on measures that break drastically from the capitalist economy (18), versus a gradual process, supported by mitigation, adaptation, and compensation policies (19).

Favoring this second alternative, but without ruling out the need to profoundly change human consumption patterns with important repercussions on the productive system (energy, transportation, food, etc.), gradualist policies will also directly or indirectly impact employment and working conditions during the transition from carbon emission energy to green energy.

To cope with this urgent situation, specific control measures have been proposed over the last few decades. Schulte and colleagues have systematically reviewed the literature (20, 21, 22), identifying new and exacerbated old climate-related hazards such as extreme temperatures, air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, natural disasters, biological hazards, indoor air quality, etc., and they also assessed the impact of employment transition and economic burden on occupational health equity and mental health. On this basis, the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has elaborated recommendations to mitigate and control the impact of several climate-related hazards on worker health and well-being (23). Similarly, the EU Agency for Safety and Health at Work has published guidelines for heat at work (24). Going further, some governments, such as Spain, have begun regulating and enforcing specific measures (25).

Implementation of these workplace preventive measures to mitigate the impact of climate change is the responsibility of employers, with full participation of workers. Devoting resources to hazard recognition; performing risk assessments to identify which workers are most vulnerable to climate change-related hazards; and implementing a control strategy with policies, procedures, equipment, and work organization changes aiming to eliminate or minimize the impact of these hazards can improve employer preparedness (26).

Adaptation policies to reduce emissions of CO2 and other gases that are driving the greenhouse effect, still with limited results, could mean a loss of six million jobs worldwide, according to estimates of the International Labor Organization (ILO) (27). This same estimation predicts a promising creation of 24 million jobs, mainly in economies emphasizing recycling and reutilization of manufactured products (the so-called “circular economy”), infrastructure construction, development of renewables and energy efficiency. Also, during this transition, new forms of work will emerge (e.g., human-robot interfaces and artificial intelligence), and with them the need to train workers, both new and existing, to adapt to those new forms of work.

While waiting for positive results from mitigation and adaptation policies, a just transition to a green economy must simultaneously incorporate compensation policies. To achieve this, it is essential to strengthen social protection systems, a cornerstone of decent employment. For example, there were measures adopted during the pandemic, such as temporary employment regulation for employees or benefits covering the cessation of activity of the self-employed. Similar compensation measures may help workers affected by mitigation and adaptation policies during a transition phase, possibly to a lesser degree than in the pandemic, but lasting longer.

In summary, as was the case in the most recent public health emergency, the COVID-19 pandemic, declaring the climate emergency as an international public health emergency by the WHO could play a critical role in managing this new global health crisis. Research programs, supported by global occupational health surveillance systems, to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation, adaptation and compensation measures are urgent.

Conflict of interest statement The authors report no conflicts of interest.

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Climate Change and Occupational Heat Strain Among Women Workers: A Systematic Review

Climate change increases heat stress exposure and occupational heat strain in tropical and subtropical regions with generally hot-humid climate conditions. The present systematic review was conducted to assess the effect of climate change on occupational heat strain among women workers. In this study, three main databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) were searched to find relevant literature on climate change and its effects using subject headings and appropriate MeSh terms. This article has been written according to the PRISMA checklist. A total of 6,176 studies were identified for screening and 13 studies were eligible for data extraction. Scientific evidence reveals that there is an imprecise but positive relationship between climate change and occupational heat strain regarding women workers. Some complications associated with occupational heat strain among women workers include fatigue, discomfort, dehydration, reduced brain function, and loss of concentration. Climate change can lead to an increase in the occurrence of heat-related illnesses and the levels of injury risk. In addition, its adverse health effects on women workers are mentioned. This systematic study identifies key priorities for action to better characterize and understand how occupational heat strain among women workers may be associated with climate change events. Strong evidence indicates that climate change will continue to cause occupational heat strain among women workers. It is essential to implement preventive measures considering multidisciplinary strategies to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on women workers health in hot weather settings. This can limit the health risks and negative effects of climate change.

Impacts of climate change on occupational health indicators in the three climatic regions of Iran

Climate change has increased the exposure risk of workers to occupational health risk factors and diseases. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the occupational health indicators at the workplaces in Iran. This study was conducted during 2021 in three climatic regions of Iran. Required data was collected from Health Deputies of Medical Universities and Iran Meteorological Organization. Stepwise linear regression model used for data analysis and predictions were done based on three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 during the period of 2021-2100. This indicated 2.6 and 2.9 times higher percentage of workers who were exposed to heat stress and Ultra Violet (UV) radiation, respectively, in the provinces understudy. This study suggests a holistic approach to address potential impacts of climate change on workers' health and safety that would benefit in making decisions on climate-related planning and developing the adaptation strategies at workplaces.

Impacts of Climate Change on Work Health and Safety in Australia: A Scoping Literature Review

This scoping review explores the extant literature on climate change impacts on Workplace Health and Safety (WHS) in Australia. It maps the coverage of climate hazards, occupations at risk, and health and socio-economic impacts with the aim of identifying climate change impacts on WHS in Australia and associated knowledge gaps. We used a scoping review approach to identify and investigate 41 scholarly works at the nexus between climate change and WHS in Australia. Thematic template analysis and the NVivo software helped us identify and structure the main themes and systematically document the analysis process. The review highlighted a research focus on the impacts on WHS of heat and extreme weather events resulting from climate change. Agriculture and construction emerged as the most examined occupations, emphasising climate-related diseases and productivity loss. Other climate-related hazards, occupations, and health and socio-economic impacts were largely overlooked in the included research literature. The analysis revealed there is scope for further research relating to climate change impacts on occupational hazards (e.g., air pollution), occupations (e.g., indoor settings at risk), worker health (e.g., injuries), and socio-economic impacts (e.g., change in social practice). Furthermore, the results highlight that the main themes (hazards, occupations, health, and productivity) are interconnected, and the impacts of climate change can be 'cascading', adding complexity and severity. Hence, it is important to look at WHS as a multifaceted phenomenon in a holistic way to understand the risks and support required.

Work as a social determinant of health in high-income countries: past, present, and future

This paper, the first in a three-part Series on work and health, provides a narrative review of research into work as a social determinant of health over the past 25 years, the key emerging challenges in this field, and the implications of these challenges for future research. By use of a conceptual framework for work as a social determinant of health, we identified six emerging challenges: (1) the influence of technology on the nature of work in high-income countries, culminating in the sudden shift to telework during the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) the intersectionality of work with gender, sexual orientation, age, race, ethnicity, migrant status, and socioeconomic status as codeterminants of health disparities; (3) the arrival in many Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries of large migrant labour workforces, who are often subject to adverse working conditions and social exclusion; (4) the development of precarious employment as a feature of many national labour markets; (5) the phenomenon of working long and irregular hours with potential health consequences; and (6) the looming threat of climate change's effects on work. We conclude that profound changes in the nature and availability of work over the past few decades have led to widespread new psychosocial and physical exposures that are associated with adverse health outcomes and contribute to increasing disparities in health. These new exposures at work will require novel and creative methods of data collection for monitoring of their potential health impacts to protect the workforce, and for new research into better means of occupational health promotion and protection. There is also an urgent need for a better integration of occupational health within public health, medicine, the life sciences, and the social sciences, with the work environment explicitly conceptualised as a major social determinant of health.

Climate Change for the Pulmonologist: A Focused Review

Climate change adversely impacts global health. Increasingly, temperature variability, inclement weather, declining air quality, and growing food and clean water supply insecurities threaten human health. Earth's temperature is projected to increase up to 6.4 °C by the end of the 21st century, exacerbating the threat. Public and health care professionals, including pulmonologists, perceive the detrimental effects of climate change and air pollution and support efforts to mitigate its effects. In fact, evidence is strong that premature cardiopulmonary death is associated with air pollution exposure via inhalation through the respiratory system, which functions as a portal of entry. However, little guidance is available for pulmonologists in recognizing the effects of climate change and air pollution on the diverse range of pulmonary disorders. To educate and mitigate risk for patients competently, pulmonologists must be armed with evidence-based findings of the impact of climate change and air pollution on specific pulmonary diseases. Our goal is to provide pulmonologists with the background and tools to improve patients' health and to prevent adverse outcomes despite climate change-imposed threats. In this review, we detail current evidence of climate change and air pollution impact on a diverse range of pulmonary disorders. Knowledge enables a proactive and individualized approach toward prevention strategies for patients, rather than merely treating ailments reactively.

Descriptive analysis of occupational accidents in Spain and their relationship with heatwaves

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this work is to carry out a descriptive analysis of occupational accidents and to evaluate the relationship between heatwaves and work accidents in Spain's three most populated provinces: Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia.

METHODS

Daily data of work accidents (including for each case: gender, age, date, length of time in the position, type of work, place of accident and duration of medical leave) was collected. A heatwave was defined when daily mean temperatures above the threshold (95th percentile) of the climatological period (1990-2021) were recorded for at least three consecutive days. To estimate the association between daily workplace accidents and heatwave events, we applied a Generalized Additive Model combined with a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model with a quasi-Poisson distribution.

RESULTS

The average annual accident rate was 33.2 work accidents/100,000 employees in Madrid, 35.8 work accidents/100,000 employees in Barcelona and 31.8 work accidents/100,000 employees in Valencia. The total accident rates followed a downward trend between 2005 and 2021. The difference in work accident rates between sex decreased over the studied period (p < 0.005). In the first month of work, the highest casualty rate occurs among construction workers in Madrid and Barcelona, and in primary sector workers in Valencia. Work accidents tend to increase during heatwaves. The highest risk was recorded when considering a cumulative lagged effect of 3 days in Madrid and Barcelona and 5 days in Valencia.

CONCLUSIONS

Since work accidents increase during heatwaves, risk prevention services and public administrations must take special measures to prevent them.

An Agenda for Advancing Research and Prevention at the Nexus of Work Organization, Occupational Stress, and Mental Health and Well-Being

Work characteristics and worker well-being are inextricably connected. In particular, the characteristics of work organization shape and perpetuate occupational stress, which contributes to worker mental health and well-being outcomes. Consequently, the importance of understanding and addressing connections between work organization, occupational stress, and mental health and well-being-the focus of this Special Issue-increasingly demand attention from those affected by these issues. Thus, focusing on these issues in the long-haul truck driver (LHTD) sector as an illustrative example, the purpose of this commentary is as follows: (1) to outline current research approaches and the extant knowledge base regarding the connections between work organization, occupational stress, and mental health; (2) to provide an overview of current intervention strategies and public policy solutions associated with the current knowledge base to protect and promote worker mental health and well-being; and (3) to propose a two-pronged agenda for advancing research and prevention for workers during the 21st century. It is anticipated that this commentary, and this Special Issue more broadly, will both echo numerous other calls for building knowledge and engaging in this area and motivate further research within complementary current and novel research frameworks.

Updated assessment of occupational safety and health hazards of climate change

Workers, particularly outdoor workers, are among the populations most disproportionately affected by climate-related hazards. However, scientific research and control actions to comprehensively address these hazards are notably absent. To assess this absence, a seven-category framework was developed in 2009 to characterize the scientific literature published from 1988-2008. Using this framework, a second assessment examined the literature published through 2014, and the current one examines literature from 2014-2021. The objectives were to present literature that updates the framework and related topics and increases awareness of the role of climate change in occupational safety and health. In general, there is substantial literature on worker hazards related to ambient temperatures, biological hazards, and extreme weather but less on air pollution, ultraviolet radiation, industrial transitions, and the built environment. There is growing literature on mental health and health equity issues related to climate change, but much more research is needed. The socioeconomic impacts of climate change also require more research. This study illustrates that workers are experiencing increased morbidity and mortality related to climate change. In all areas of climate-related worker risk, including geoengineering, research is needed on the causality and prevalence of hazards, along with surveillance to identify, and interventions for hazard prevention and control.

The Contribution of Environmental Science to Mental Health Research: A Scoping Review

Mental health is influenced by multiple complex and interacting genetic, psychological, social, and environmental factors. As such, developing state-of-the-art mental health knowledge requires collaboration across academic disciplines, including environmental science. To assess the current contribution of environmental science to this field, a scoping review of the literature on environmental influences on mental health (including conditions of cognitive development and decline) was conducted. The review protocol was developed in consultation with experts working across mental health and environmental science. The scoping review included 202 English-language papers, published between 2010 and 2020 (prior to the COVID-19 pandemic), on environmental themes that had not already been the subject of recent systematic reviews; 26 reviews on climate change, flooding, air pollution, and urban green space were additionally considered. Studies largely focused on populations in the USA, China, or Europe and involved limited environmental science input. Environmental science research methods are primarily focused on quantitative approaches utilising secondary datasets or field data. Mental health measurement was dominated by the use of self-report psychometric scales. Measures of environmental states or exposures were often lacking in specificity (e.g., limited to the presence or absence of an environmental state). Based on the scoping review findings and our synthesis of the recent reviews, a research agenda for environmental science's future contribution to mental health scholarship is set out. This includes recommendations to expand the geographical scope and broaden the representation of different environmental science areas, improve measurement of environmental exposure, prioritise experimental and longitudinal research designs, and giving greater consideration to variation between and within communities and the mediating pathways by which environment influences mental health. There is also considerable opportunity to increase interdisciplinarity within the field via the integration of conceptual models, the inclusion of mixed methods and qualitative approaches, as well as further consideration of the socio-political context and the environmental states that can help support good mental health. The findings were used to propose a conceptual model to parse contributions and connections between environmental science and mental health to inform future studies.

Prediction of surface temperature and CO2 emission of leading emitters using grey model EGM (1,1, α, θ)

The current study projects the increase in surface temperature and CO₂ emissions using the EGM (1,1, α, θ) grey model for the six most significant CO₂ contributing countries, namely China, the USA, India, Russia, Japan, and Germany. The study uses time series data for surface temperature (in degree celsius) from 2010 to 2020, and CO₂ emission (metric tons per capita) data from 2009 to 2019. The empirical results show a downward trend in CO₂ emissions from Japan, Germany, the USA, and Russia by 2028. However, in the same time period, CO₂ emissions are expected to increase for India and remain nearly constant for China. This study indicates an increase in surface temperature at a significant rate in all the 6 countries: by 6.70 °C for China, 7.52 °C for Germany, 2.95 °C for India, 2.66 °C for Japan, 3.61 °C for Russia, and 13.48 °C for the USA by the end of 2028. The study compares the EGM (1,1, α, θ) grey model with the general EGM (1,1) grey model and finds that the EGM (1,1, α, θ) model performs better in both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting. The paper also puts forward policy suggestions to mitigate, manage, and reduce increases in surface temperature as well as CO₂ emissions.

Occurrence of Occupational Injuries and Within Day Changes in Wet Bulb Temperature Among Sugarcane Harvesters

OBJECTIVE

Climate change has implications for human health worldwide, with workers in outdoor occupations in low- to middle-income countries shouldering the burden of increasing average temperatures and more frequent extreme heat days. An overlooked aspect of the human health impact is the relationship between heat exposure and increased risk of occupational injury. In this study, we examined the association between occupational injury occurrence and changes in outdoor temperatures through the workday among a cohort of Guatemalan sugarcane harvesters.

METHODS

Occupational injuries recorded for the 2014/2015 to 2017/2018 harvest seasons were collected from a large agribusiness employing male sugarcane harvesters in Southwest Guatemala. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) for the same period was collected from the El Balsamo weather station. We used a logistic mixed effects model to examine the association between injury occurrence and (1) the average WBGT during the hour injury was recorded, (2) the average WBGT during the hour prior to the injury being recorded, and (3) the change in the hourly average WBGT prior to the injury being recorded.

RESULTS

There were 155 injuries recorded during the study period. Injuries were recorded most often between 14:00 and 16:00 (n = 62, 40%) followed by 8:00 and 10:00 (n = 56, 36%). There were significant differences in the average hourly WBGT and the hour in which injuries were recorded (p-value <.001). There were no observable associations between average hourly WBGT (OR: 1.00, 95%CI: 0.94, 1.05; p-value: 0.87), lagged average hourly WBGT (OR: 1.01, 95%CI: 0.97, 1.05; p-value: 0.71), or change in average hourly WBGT (OR: 0.96, 95%CI: 0.89, 1.04; p-value: 0.35) and recorded occupational injury.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study that has examined how changes in WBGT throughout the day are related to occupational injury among agricultural workers. Although this study did not demonstrate an association, there is a need for future research to examine how various measurements of WBGT exposure are related to occupational injury in agricultural worker populations.

Association between extreme temperature exposure and occupational injuries among construction workers in Italy: An analysis of risk factors

BACKGROUND/AIM

Extreme temperatures have impact on the health and occupational injuries. The construction sector is particularly exposed. This study aims to investigate the association between extreme temperatures and occupation injuries in this sector, getting an insight in the main accidents-related parameters.

METHODS

Occupational injuries in the construction sector, with characteristic of accidents, were retrieved from Italian compensation data during years 2014-2019. Air temperatures were derived from ERA5-land Copernicus dataset. A region based time-series analysis, in which an over-dispersed Poisson generalized linear regression model, accounting for potential non-linearity of the exposure- response curve and delayed effect, was applied, and followed by a meta-analysis of region-specific estimates to obtain a national estimate. The relative risk (RR) and attributable cases of work-related injuries for an increase in mean temperature above the 75th percentile (hot) and for a decrease below the 25th percentile (cold) were estimated, with effect modifications by different accidents-related parameters.

RESULTS

The study identified 184,936 construction occupational injuries. There was an overall significant effect for high temperatures (relative risk (RR) 1.216 (95% CI: (1.095-1.350))) and a protective one for low temperatures (RR 0.901 (95% CI: 0.843-0.963)). For high temperatures we estimated 3,142 (95% CI: 1,772-4,482) attributable cases during the studied period. RRs from 1.11 to 1.30 were found during heat waves days. Unqualified workers, as well as masons and plumbers, were found to be at risk at high temperatures. Construction, quarry and industrial sites were the risky working environments, as well as specific physical activities like working with hand-held tools, operating with machine and handling of objects. Contact with sharp, pointed, rough, coarse 'Material Agent' were the more risky mode of injury in hot conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention policies are needed to reduce the exposure to high temperatures of construction workers. Such policies will become a critical issue considering climate change.

Expanding the Focus of Occupational Safety and Health: Lessons from a Series of Linked Scientific Meetings

There is widespread recognition that the world of work is changing, and agreement is growing that the occupational safety and health (OSH) field must change to contribute to the protection of workers now and in the future. Discourse on the evolution of OSH has been active for many decades, but formalized support of an expanded focus for OSH has greatly increased over the past 20 years. Development of approaches such as the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)'s Total Worker Health® concept and the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Healthy Workplace Framework are concrete examples of how OSH can incorporate a new focus with a wider view. In 2019, NIOSH initiated a multi-year effort to explore an expanded focus for OSH. This paper is a report on the outputs of a three-year cooperative agreement between NIOSH and The University of Texas School of Public Health, which led to subject matter expert workshops in 2020 and an international conference of global interest groups in 2021. This article traces the background of these meetings and identifies and assesses the lessons learned. It also reviews ten thematic topics that emerged from the meetings: worker health inequalities; training new OSH professionals; future OSH research and practice; tools to measure well-being of workers; psychosocial hazards and adverse mental health effects; skilling, upskilling and improving job quality; socioeconomic influences; climate change; COVID-19 pandemic influences; and strategic foresight. Cross-cutting these themes is the need for systems and transdisciplinary thinking and operationalization of the concept of well-being to prepare the OSH field for the work of the future.

Environmental Health: A Position Paper From the American College of Physicians

Environmental health refers to the health effects associated with environmental factors, such as air pollution, water contamination, and climate change. Environmental hazards are associated with poor outcomes in common diseases, including diabetes and heart disease. In this position paper, the American College of Physicians (ACP) seeks to inform physicians about environmental health and offers policymakers recommendations to reduce the adverse health consequences of climate change, improve air and water quality, reduce exposure to toxic substances, and address environmental injustice. ACP affirms that all communities, including people of color, people with low income, and marginalized populations, deserve to live in a healthy environment.

Impact of climate change on occupational health and safety: A review of methodological approaches

BACKGROUND

The working population is exposed daily to unavoidable climatic conditions due to their occupational settings. Effects of the weather such as rain, heat, and air pollution may increase the risk of diseases, injuries, accidents, and even death during labor.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to summarize the impacts of climate change on workers' health, safety and performance, identifying the risks, affected workplaces and the range of methodological approaches used to assess this problem.

METHODS

A thorough systematic mapping was conducted in seven scientific international databases: Emerald, IEEE Xplore, Science Direct, Scielo, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Three research questions guided the extraction process resulting in 170 articles regarding the impacts of climate change on occupational health and safety.

RESULTS

We found an accentuated trend in observational studies applying primary and secondary data collection. Many studies focused on the association between rising temperatures and occupational hazards, mainly in outdoor work settings such as agriculture. The variation of temperature was the most investigated impact of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a knowledge base on how to explore the impacts of climate change on workers' well-being and health. Researchers and policymakers benefit from this review, which explores the suitable methods found in the literature and highlights the most recurring risks and their consequences to occupational health and safety.

Occupational Safety and Health Staging Framework for Decent Work

The 2030 United Nations Goal 8 for sustainable development focuses on decent work. There is utility in identifying the occupational safety and health aspects of Goal 8, as they pertain to the four pillars of decent work: job creation, social protection, rights of workers, and social dialogue. A workgroup of the International Commission on Occupational Health and collaborators addressed the issue of decent work and occupational safety and health (OSH) with the objective of elaborating a framework for guidance for practitioners, researchers, employers, workers, and authorities. This article presents that framework, which is based on an examination of the literature and the perspectives of the workgroup. The framework encompasses the intersection of the pillars of decent (employment creation, social protection, rights of workers, and social dialogue) work with new and emerging hazards and risks related to various selected determinants: new technologies and new forms of work; demographics (aging and gender); globalization; informal work; migration; pandemics; and OSH policies and climate change. The OSH field will need an expanded focus to address the future of decent work. This focus should incorporate the needs of workers and workforces in terms of their well-being. The framework identifies a starting point for the OSH community to begin to promote decent work.

Health impact assessment of Delhi's outdoor workers exposed to air pollution and extreme weather events: an integrated epidemiology approach

This study is an assessment of the effects of outdoor air pollution and extreme weather events on the health of outdoor workers in Delhi, including auto rickshaw drivers, street vendors, and sweepers. To carry it out, a cross-sectional and perception-based epidemiological research design was used, and the primary tool used for data collection was a questionnaire. Two hundred twenty-eight people participated in the survey, and a pulmonary function test (PFT) was performed on 63 participants. Most of the respondents from different occupational groups complained about headaches/giddiness, nausea, and muscular cramps during extreme heat events due to the physically demanding nature of their jobs in the outdoor environment. Furthermore, autorickshaw drivers reported the highest prevalence of ophthalmic symptoms, such as eye redness (44%) and eye irritation (36%). In comparison, vendors reported a higher prevalence of headaches (43%) and eye redness (40%) due to increased exposure to vehicular emissions. Among sweepers, musculoskeletal problems like joint pain (40%), backache (38%), and shoulder pain (35%) were most prevalent due to occupation-related ergonomic factors. In addition, the majority of autorickshaw drivers (47%), vendors (47%), and sweepers (48%) considered that air quality had a severe impact on their health. PFT results showed that most respondents had restricted lung function. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that lung function impairment had a significant association with smoking (p = 0.023) and age (0.019). The odds ratio for smoking, which was around 4, indicated that respondents who smoked had a nearly four times greater risk of developing lung impairment. The study also highlighted the need for using personal protective equipment and developing guidelines to reduce their exposure level.

An Examination of the Intersection of Climate Change, the Physician Specialty Workforce, and Graduate Medical Education in the U.S

Issue: As U.S. healthcare systems plan for future physician workforce needs, the systemic impacts of climate change, a worldwide environmental and health crisis, have not been factored in. The current focus on increasing the number of trained physicians and optimizing efficiencies in healthcare delivery may be insufficient. Graduate medical education (GME) priorities and training should be considered in order to prepare a climate-educated physician workforce. Evidence: We used a holistic lens to explore the available literature regarding the intersection of future physician workforce needs, GME program priorities, and resident education within the larger context of climate change. Our interinstitutional, transdisciplinary team brought perspectives from their own fields, including climate science, climate and health research, and medical education to provide recommendations for building a climate-educated physician workforce. Implications: Acknowledging and preparing for the effects of climate change on the physician workforce will require identification of workforce gaps, changes to GME program priorities, and education of trainees on the health and societal impacts of climate change. Alignment of GME training with workforce considerations and climate action and adaptation initiatives will be critical in ensuring the U.S. has a climate-educated physician workforce capable of addressing health and healthcare system challenges. This article offers a number of recommendations for physician workforce priorities, resident education, and system-level changes to better prepare for the health and health system impacts of climate change.

Workers and Climate Change: The Need for Academic–Industry Partnerships to Improve Agricultural Worker Health, Safety, and Wellbeing

Climate change will have negative consequences for human health worldwide. Agricultural workers are especially vulnerable to the health consequences of climate change. This communication demonstrates how a Total Worker Health® approach is utilized to protect Guatemalan agricultural workers from the negative health effects of climate change. DrPH researchers work alongside local partners to develop, implement, and evaluate climate adaptation strategies and other interventions to improve agricultural worker health, safety, and wellbeing. Training in public health ethics, communications, and leadership gives DrPH researchers the tools to help create successful academic–industry partnerships that increase local capacity and have sustainable public health impact.

Risk of Heat-Related Mortality, Disease, Accident, and Injury Among Korean Workers: A National Representative Study From 2002 to 2015

Many studies have shown that heat waves can cause both death and disease. Considering the adverse health effects of heat waves on vulnerable groups, this study highlights their impact on workers. The present study thus investigated the association between heat exposure and the likelihood of hospitalization and death, and further identified the risk of heat-related diseases or death according to types of heat and dose-response modeling with heat threshold. Workers were selected from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort 2002-2015, and regional data measured by the Korea Meteorological Administration were used for weather information. The relationship between hospitalization attributable to disease and weather variables was analyzed by applying a generalized additional model. Using the Akaike information criterion, we selected a model that presented the optimal threshold. Maximum daily temperature (MaxT) was associated with an increased risk of death and outdoor mortality. The association between death outdoors and MaxT had a threshold of 31.2°C with a day zero lag effect. History of medical facility visits due to the health effects of heat waves was evident in certain infectious and parasitic diseases (A and B), cardio and cerebrovascular diseases (I20-25 and I60-69), injury, poisoning, and other consequences of external causes (S, T). The study demonstrated that heat exposure is a risk factor for death and infectious, cardio-cerebrovascular, and genitourinary diseases, as well as injuries or accidents among workers. The finding that heat exposure affects workers' health has future implications for decision makers and researchers.

The Effect of Heat Events on Prehospital and Retrieval Service Utilization in Rural and Remote Areas: A Scoping Review

INTRODUCTION

It is well-established that heatwaves increase demand for emergency transport in metropolitan areas; however, little is known about the impact of heat events on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, or how heatwaves are defined in this context.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Papers were eligible for inclusion if they reported on the impact of a heat event on the activity of a prehospital and retrieval service in a rural or remote area.

METHODS

A search of PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct, CINAHL, and Google Scholar databases was undertaken on August 18, 2020 using search terms related to emergency medical transport, extreme heat, and rural or remote. Data relevant to the impact of heat on retrieval service activity were extracted, as well as definitions of extreme heat.

RESULTS

Two papers were identified, both from Australia. Both found that heat events increased the number of road ambulance call-outs. Both studies used the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to define heatwave periods of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

This review found almost no primary literature on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, and no data specifically related to aeromedical transport. The research did recognize the disproportionate impact of heat-related increase in service demand on Australian rural and regional health services. With the effects of climate change already being felt, there is an urgent need for more research and action in this area.

Framing Future of Work Considerations through Climate and Built Environment Assessment of Volunteer Work Practices in the United States Equine Assisted Services

The foundation of healthy workplace design is an understanding of work practices. Volunteers comprise the majority of the workforce in care centers using horses to address human health issues. Documentation is lacking on protections for worker well-being in equestrian microenvironments which are known to have the potential for dust exposures. Climate acts as a master variable in equestrian facility design and ventilation usage to address dust and temperature concerns. Using climate as an independent variable, our objective was to characterize space usage, safety, environmental control, and organizational practices through a national survey of equine assisted programs. We found that more fully enclosed indoor arena spaces were in cold/very cold and mixed-humid climates (p = 0.0114). Annually more volunteers (p = 0.0073) work in these two climate groups averaging 100 volunteers per location. A total of 34% of all facilities, regardless of climate, do not use mechanical ventilation systems (e.g., fans). As volunteer worker time in the arena increased, time in the barn microenvironment tended to decrease (p = 0.0538). We identified facility designs, ventilation usage, and worker arrangements to refine the scalability of future air contaminant monitoring and to provide frameworks for education, workplace design, and prevention of exposure to dust.

Prevention of Occupational Heat-Related Illnesses

High ambient temperatures and strenuous physical activity put workers at risk for a variety of heat-related illnesses and injuries. Through primary prevention, secondary prevention, and treatment, OEM health providers can protect workers from the adverse effects of heat. This statement by the American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine provides guidance for OEM providers who serve workers and employers in industries where heat exposure occurs.

Electrolyte Beverage Intake to Promote Hydration and Maintain Kidney Function in Guatemalan Sugarcane Workers Laboring in Hot Conditions

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate impact of electrolyte supplementation on hydration status and health outcomes in Guatemalan agricultural workers performing heavy work under hot climatic conditions.

METHODS

A 3-week pragmatic trial was conducted with a group of 50 workers during the 2017 to 2018 sugarcane harvest. Workers received an electrolyte hydration intervention during 2 of the 3 weeks. Blood and urine samples were collected each week.

RESULTS

Increased electrolyte intake resulted in less muscle injury. Kidney function was maintained across the intervention period. Workers were adequately hydrated and average electrolyte levels remained in normal ranges. Mild indications of hyponatremia occurred at higher levels of fluid intake.

CONCLUSIONS

This trial demonstrates the feasibility of maintaining workers' electrolyte levels under extremely hot and humid conditions while mitigating muscle injury. Electrolyte supplementation should be added to standard workplace water, rest, and shade interventions to protect workers.

Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study

BACKGROUND

Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness.

METHODS

In this empirical, multi-model study, we used a large collection of micro-survey data aggregated to subnational regions across the world to estimate new, robust global and regional temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature exposure-response functions (ERFs) for labour supply. We then assessed the uncertainty in existing labour productivity response functions and derived an augmented mean function. Finally, we combined these two dimensions of labour into a single compound metric (effective labour effects). This combined measure allowed us to estimate the effect of future climate change on both the number of hours worked and on the productivity of workers during their working hours under 1·5°C, 2·0°C, and 3·0°C of global warming. We separately analysed low-exposure (indoors or outdoors in the shade) and high-exposure (outdoor in the sun) sectors.

FINDINGS

We found differentiated empirical regional and sectoral ERF's for labour supply. Current climate conditions already negatively affect labour effectiveness, particularly in tropical countries. Future climate change will reduce global total labour in the low-exposure sectors by 18 percentage points (range -48·8 to 5·3) under a scenario of 3·0°C warming (24·8 percentage points in the high-exposure sectors). The reductions will be 25·9 percentage points (-48·8 to 2·7) in Africa, 18·6 percentage points (-33·6 to 5·3) in Asia, and 10·4 percentage points (-35·0 to 2·6) in the Americas in the low-exposure sectors. These regional effects are projected to be substantially higher for labour outdoors in full sunlight compared with indoors (or outdoors in the shade) with the average reductions in total labour projected to be 32·8 percentage points (-66·3 to 1·6) in Africa, 25·0 percentage points (-66·3 to 7·0) in Asia, and 16·7 percentage points (-45·5 to 4·4) in the Americas.

INTERPRETATION

Both labour supply and productivity are projected to decrease under future climate change in most parts of the world, and particularly in tropical regions. Parts of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and southeast Asia are at highest risk under future warming scenarios. The heterogeneous regional response functions suggest that it is necessary to move away from one-size-fits-all response functions to investigate the climate effect on labour. Our findings imply income and distributional consequences in terms of increased inequality and poverty, especially in low-income countries, where the labour effects are projected to be high.

FUNDING

COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology).

A Review of Neural Networks for Air Temperature Forecasting

The accurate forecast of air temperature plays an important role in water resources management, land–atmosphere interaction, and agriculture. However, it is difficult to accurately predict air temperature due to its non-linear and chaotic nature. Several deep learning techniques have been proposed over the last few decades to forecast air temperature. This study provides a comprehensive review of artificial neural network (ANN)-based approaches (such as recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), etc.), which were used to forecast air temperature. The focus is on the works during 2005–2020. The review shows that the neural network models can be employed as promising tools to forecast air temperature. Although the ANN-based approaches have been utilized widely to predict air temperature due to their fast computing speed and ability to deal with complex problems, no consensus yet exists on the best existing method. Additionally, it is found that the ANN methods are mainly viable for short-term air temperature forecasting. Finally, some future directions and recommendations are presented.

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.

The physiological strain index does not reliably identify individuals at risk of reaching a thermal tolerance limit

PURPOSE

The physiological strain index (PSI) was developed to assess individuals' heat strain, yet evidence supporting its use to identify individuals at potential risk of reaching a thermal tolerance limit (TTL) is limited. The aim of this study was to assess whether PSI can identify individuals at risk of reaching a TTL.

METHODS

Fifteen females and 21 males undertook a total of 136 trials, each consisting of two 40-60 minute periods of treadmill walking separated by ~ 15 minutes rest, wearing permeable or impermeable clothing, in a range of climatic conditions. Heart rate (HR), skin temperature (T_sk), rectal temperature (T_re), temperature sensation (TS) and thermal comfort (TC) were measured throughout. Various forms of the PSI-index were assessed including the original PSI, PSI_fixed, adaptive-PSI (aPSI) and a version comprised of a measure of heat storage (PSI_HS). Final physiological and PSI values and their rate of change (ROC) over a trial and in the last 10 minutes of a trial were compared between trials completed (C, 101 trials) and those terminated prematurely (TTL, 35 trials).

RESULTS

Final PSI_original, PSI_fixed, aPSI, PSI_HS did not differ between TTL and C (p > 0.05). However, differences between TTL and C occurred in final T_sk, T_re-T_sk, TS, TC and ROC in PSI_fixed, T_re, T_sk and HR (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

These results suggest the PSI, in the various forms, does not reliably identify individuals at imminent risk of reaching their TTL and its validity as a physiological safety index is therefore questionable. However, a physiological-perceptual strain index may provide a more valid measure.

Climate Change Impacts and Workforce Development Needs in Federal Region X: A Qualitative Study of Occupational Health and Safety Professionals' Perceptions

Climate change is considered one of the top health threats in the United States. This research sought to (1) to understand the perceptions of occupational health and safety (OHS) professionals regarding the impacts of climate-related hazards on OHS in Region X, and (2) to explore the ideas of these OHS professionals regarding the content of future training programs that would better prepare OHS professionals to identify and mitigate climate-related hazards in Region X. Key informant (KI) interviews with 17 OHS professionals familiar with the climate-related hazards and impacts to OHS in Region X were coded and thematically analyzed. Climate hazards, social and economic impacts from climate-related hazards, and sector-specific worker and workplace impacts from climate-related hazards were described as having interacting relationships that influenced worker health and safety impacts. KIs further described how workplace controls could be used to mitigate OHS impacts of climate-related hazards, and how training of the OHS workforce could influence the ability to successfully implement such controls. Our findings suggest that OHS impacts are sector-specific, influenced by social and economic factors, and can be mitigated through workplace controls designed and implemented by a trained OHS workforce. The findings from this work should inform future educational and training programming and additional research and translation activities in the region, while our approach can inform other regions as they develop regionally specific OHS climate change training and programming.

The future of research on work, safety, health and wellbeing: A guiding conceptual framework

Work plays a central role in health. A conceptual model can help frame research priorities and questions to explore determinants of workers' safety, health, and wellbeing. A previous conceptual model focused on the workplace setting to emphasize the role of conditions of work in shaping workers' safety, health and wellbeing. These conditions of work include physical, organizational, and psychosocial factors. This manuscript presents and discusses an updated and expanded conceptual model, placing the workplace and the conditions of work within the broader context of socio-political-economic environments and consequent trends in employment and labor force patterns. Social, political and economic trends, such as growing reliance on technology, climate change, and globalization, have significant implications for workers' day-to-day experiences. These structural forces in turn shape employment and labor patterns, with implications for the availability and quality of jobs; the nature of relationships between employers and workers; and the benefits and protections available to workers. Understanding these patterns will be critical for anticipating the consequences of future changes in the conditions of work, and ultimately help inform decision-making around policies and practices intended to protect and promote worker safety, health, and wellbeing. This model provides a structure for anticipating research needs in response to the changing nature of work, including the formation of research priorities, the need for expanded research methods and measures, and attention to diverse populations of enterprises and workers. This approach anticipates changes in the way work is structured, managed, and experienced by workers and can effectively inform policies and practices needed to protect and promote worker safety, health and wellbeing.

The influence of climate change on skin cancer incidence - A review of the evidence

BACKGROUND

Climate change is broadly affecting human health, with grave concern that continued warming of the earth's atmosphere will result is serious harm. Since the mid-20th century, skin cancer incidence rates have risen at an alarming rate worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

This review examines the relationship between climate change and cutaneous carcinogenesis.

METHODS

A literature review used the National Institutes of Health databases (PubMed and Medline), the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and International Agency for Research on Cancer registries, and published reports by federal and international agencies and consortia, including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United Nations Environment Programme, World Health Organization, and World Meteorological Organization.

RESULTS

Skin cancer risk is determined by multiple factors, with exposure to ultraviolet radiation being the most important. Strong circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that factors related to climate change, including stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming, and ambient air pollution, have likely contributed to the increasing incidence of cutaneous malignancy globally and will continue to impose a negative on influence skin cancer incidence for many decades to come.

CONCLUSION

Because much of the data are based on animal studies and computer simulations, establishing a direct and definitive link remains challenging. More epidemiologic studies are needed to prove causality in skin cancer, but the evidence for overall harm to human health as a direct result of climate change is clear. Global action to mitigate these negative impacts to humans and the environment is imperative.

Envisioning the future of work to safeguard the safety, health, and well-being of the workforce: A perspective from the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

The future of work embodies changes to the workplace, work, and workforce, which require additional occupational safety and health (OSH) stakeholder attention. Examples include workplace developments in organizational design, technological job displacement, and work arrangements; work advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, and technologies; and workforce changes in demographics, economic security, and skills. This paper presents the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's Future of Work Initiative; suggests an integrated approach to address worker safety, health, and well-being; introduces priority topics and subtopics that confer a framework for upcoming future of work research directions and resultant practical applications; and discusses preliminary next steps. All future of work issues impact one another. Future of work transformations are contingent upon each of the standalone factors discussed in this paper and their combined effects. Occupational safety and health stakeholders are becoming more aware of the significance and necessity of these factors for the workplace, work, and workforce to flourish, merely survive, or disappear altogether as the future evolves. The future of work offers numerous opportunities, while also presenting critical but not clearly understood difficulties, exposures, and hazards. It is the responsibility of OSH researchers and other partners to understand the implications of future of work scenarios to translate effective interventions into practice for employers safeguarding the safety, health, and well-being of their workers.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature and Recorded Occupational Injury Rates among Sugarcane Harvesters in Southwest Guatemala

As global temperatures continue to rise it is imperative to understand the adverse effects this will pose to workers laboring outdoors. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between increases in wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and risk of occupational injury or dehydration among agricultural workers. We used data collected by an agribusiness in Southwest Guatemala over the course of four harvest seasons and Poisson generalized linear modelling for this analysis. Our analyses suggest a 3% increase in recorded injury risk with each degree increase in daily average WBGT above 30 °C (95% CI: -6%, 14%). Additionally, these data suggest that the relationship between WBGT and injury risk is non-linear with an additional 4% acceleration in risk for every degree increase in WBGT above 30 °C (95% CI: 0%, 8%). No relationship was found between daily average WBGT and risk of dehydration. Our results indicate that agricultural workers are at an increased risk of occupational injury in humid and hot environments and that businesses need to plan and adapt to increasing global temperatures by implementing and evaluating effective occupational safety and health programs to protect the health, safety, and well-being of their workers.

Potential Scenarios and Hazards in the Work of the Future: A Systematic Review of the Peer-Reviewed and Gray Literatures

It would be useful for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers to anticipate the hazards that workers will face in the future. The focus of this study is a systematic review of published information to identify and characterize scenarios and hazards in the future of work. Eleven bibliographic databases were systematically searched for papers and reports published from 1999 to 2019 that described future of work scenarios or identified future work-related hazards. To compile a comprehensive collection of views of the future, supplemental and ad hoc searches were also performed. After screening all search records against a set of predetermined criteria, the review yielded 36 references (17 peer-reviewed, 4 gray, and 15 supplemental) containing scenarios. In these, the future of work was described along multiple conceptual axes (e.g. labor market changes, societal values, and manual versus cognitive work). Technology was identified as the primary driver of the future of work in most scenarios, and there were divergent views in the literature as to whether technology will create more or fewer jobs than it displaces. Workforce demographics, globalization, climate change, economic conditions, and urbanization were also mentioned as influential factors. Other important themes included human enhancement, social isolation, loneliness, worker monitoring, advanced manufacturing, hazardous exposures, sustainability, biotechnology, and synthetic biology. Pandemics have not been widely considered in the future of work literature, but the recent COVID-19 pandemic illustrates that was short-sighted. Pandemics may accelerate future of work trends and merit critical consideration in scenario development. Many scenarios described 'new' or 'exacerbated' psychosocial hazards of work, whereas comparatively fewer discussed physical, chemical, or biological hazards. Various preventive recommendations were identified. In particular, reducing stress associated with precarious work and its requirements of continual skill preparation and training was acknowledged as critical for protecting and promoting the health and well-being of the future workforce. In conclusion, the future of work will be comprised of diverse complex scenarios and a mosaic of old and new hazards. These findings may serve as the basis for considering how to shape the future of work.

Intersecting vulnerabilities: climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

Understanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix-combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to + 177% at the national scale in 2080 under SSP5*RCP8.5 relative to a historical baseline. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure would be about 30% lower under RCP2.6 compared to RCP8.5. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underline the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts.

Controlling and preventing climate-sensitive noncommunicable diseases in urban sub-Saharan Africa

Research continues to highlight the link between climate change and health outcomes. There is, however, limited evidence in research, policies and in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) about the impact of environmental factors on noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) for people living in urban areas of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Important is that 80% of NCDs are taking place in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and linked to a third of the deaths in SSA. The question is, what would these statistics look like if environmental risk factors (e.g., pollution, chemicals) for NCDs, linked to climate change, were prevented and controlled. This article presents a framework for understanding climatic pathways' impacts on climate-sensitive NCDs and achieving the SDGs. It further explains how current global mitigation interventions in high income urban settings, with implied health co-benefits for NCD reduction (i.e., promoting use of less polluting vehicles, bicycles, walking, public transport, green spaces), experience major implementation challenges in SSA cities (i.e., too costly, lack of availability, poor road conditions, gender and cultural norms, security problems). Recommendations are made for applying this framework to control climate change impacts on NCDs and achieving the SDGs in SSA cities. These include, support for more research on the climate - NCD nexus, ensuring health professional training includes sustainable health education, and including a focus on climate change and health in primary and secondary school curricula. Further recommendations for addressing climate-sensitive NCDs and urban environmental health towards achieving and sustaining the SDGs, are linked to promoting climate-sensitive and health policies and governance, as well as controlling the influence of advertising. Lastly, improving communication of research findings for policy makers and the public in a manner for informed policy making, and how to comprehend this information to promote the reduction and prevention of NCDs in urban SSA, is key.

Assessment of Heat Stress Exposure among Construction Workers in the Hot Desert Climate of Saudi Arabia

Objectives

Excessive heat exposure poses significant risks to workers in hot climates. This study assessed the intensity and duration of heat stress exposure among workers performing residential construction in southeastern Saudi Arabia (SA) during the summer, June–September 2016. Objectives were to: identify work factors related to heat stress exposure; measure environmental heat exposure at the construction sites; assess the heat stress risk among workers using the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index; and determine if temperature-humidity indices can be appropriate alternatives to WBGT for managing heat stress risk at the construction sites.

Methods

Worksite walkthrough surveys and environmental monitoring were performed, indoors and outdoors, at 10 construction sites in Al-Ahsa Province. A heat stress exposure assessment was conducted according to the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH®) guidelines, which uses the WBGT index. WBGT measurements from two instruments were compared. Alternative heat stress indices were compared to the WBGT: the heat index (HI) and humidex (HD) index.

Results

Construction workers were exposed to excessive heat stress, indoors and outdoors over a large part of the work day. Complying with a midday outdoor work ban (12–3 p.m.) was not effective in reducing heat stress risk. The highest intensity of exposure was outdoors from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m.; a period identified with the highest hourly mean WBGT values (31–33°C) and the least allowable working time according to ACGIH® guidelines. Comparison of the alternative indices showed that the HI is more reliable than the HD as a surrogate for the WBGT index in the climate studied.

Conclusion

The extreme heat exposure represents a serious risk. The severity of heat stress and its impact are projected to increase due to climate change, emphasizing the need for immediate improvement of the current required protective measures and the development of occupational heat stress exposure guidelines in SA.

Heat-health vulnerability in temperate climates: lessons and response options from Ireland

Background

In Ireland, rising temperatures remains the climate projection that national climate scientists associate with the highest degree of confidence. However, the health challenge of heat has been largely absent from Ireland’s public health sector. This is epitomised by the lack of a comprehensive public health-focused heat-health action plan or country-specific codes of practice for heat-health when working outdoors. Our objective is to highlight the anticipated heat-health challenges in Ireland, and other temperate regions, through analysing vulnerable groups and systems, reinforcing the need to respond.

Methods

A scoping literature review was conducted to determine how heat affects health of the vulnerable in temperate climatic regions, with a focus on Ireland. Additionally, national Google Trends data was coarsely analysed to determine whether heat is a growing societal concern.

Results and discussion

The heat-vulnerable include: older people; chronically ill; infants, pregnant women, children; outdoor workers; socio-economically disadvantaged; urban dwellers; food systems and the health sector. Google Trends data suggest an increase in heat-related health searches over time, demonstrating rising levels of concern to temperature increases, reinforcing a gap in national policy associated with communication of, and response to, the heat-health challenge. Specific, actionable recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies are proposed.

Conclusion

Heat poses a public and occupational health challenge, receiving limited attention in Ireland. Lack of a co-ordinated effort, places vulnerable populations at risk. Our recommendations, with reference to vulnerable groups and acknowledging the multi-sectoral nature of heat-health and climate change, advocate for the adoption of a “health and climate change in all policies” approach and the development of a public health-focused heat-health action plan.

Toward an Expanded Focus for Occupational Safety and Health: A Commentary

Powerful and ongoing changes in how people work, the workforce, and the workplace require a more holistic view of each of these. We argue that an expanded focus for occupational safety and health (OSH) is necessary to prepare for and respond rapidly to future changes in the world of work that will certainly challenge traditional OSH systems. The WHO Model for Action, various European efforts at well-being, and the Total Worker Health concept provide a foundation for addressing changes in the world of work. However, a paradigm expansion to include the recognition of worker and workforce well-being as an important outcome of OSH will be needed. It will also be vital to stimulate transdisciplinary efforts and find innovative ways to attract and train students into OSH professions as the paradigm expands. This will require active marketing of the OSH field as vibrant career choice, as a profession filled with meaningful, engaging responsibilities, and as a well-placed investment for industry and society. An expanded paradigm will result in the need for new disciplines and specialties in OSH, which may be useful in new market efforts to attract new professionals. Ultimately, to achieve worker and workforce well-being we must consider how to implement this expanded focus.

Heat Exposure and Occupational Injuries: Review of the Literature and Implications

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The burden of heat-related adverse occupational health effects, as well as traumatic injuries, is already substantial. Projected increases in mean temperatures and extreme events may increase the risk of adverse heat health effects and enhance disparities among exposed workers. This article reviews the emerging literature on the relationship between heat exposure and occupational traumatic injuries and discusses implications of this work.

RECENT FINDINGS

A recent meta-analysis of three case-crossover and five time series studies in industrialized settings reported an association of increasing occupational injuries with increasing heat exposure, with increased effect estimates for male gender and age less than 25 years, although heterogeneity in exposure metrics and sources of bias were demonstrated to varying degrees across studies. A subsequent case-crossover study in outdoor construction workers reported a 0.5% increase in the odds of traumatic injuries per 1 °C increase in maximum daily humidex (odds ratio 1.005 [95% CI 1.003-1.007]). While some studies have demonstrated reversed U-shaped associations between heat exposure and occupational injuries, different risk profiles have been reported in different industries and settings. Studies conducted primarily in industrialized settings suggest an increased risk of traumatic injury with increasing heat exposure, though the exact mechanisms of heat exposure's effects on traumatic injuries are still under investigation. The effectiveness of heat-related injury prevention approaches has not yet been established. To enhance the effectiveness of prevention efforts, prioritization of approaches should take into account not only the hierarchy of controls, social-ecological models, community and stakeholder participation, and tailoring of approaches to specific local work settings, but also methods that reduce local and global disparities and better address the source of heat exposure, including conservation-informed land-use planning, built environment, and prevention through design approaches. Participation of occupational health experts in transdisciplinary development and integration of these approaches is needed.

The nexus between social impacts and adaptation strategies of workers to occupational heat stress: a conceptual framework

Adverse effects of occupational heat stress in the context of the changing climate on working populations are subtle but considerably harmful. However, social dimensions and impacts of climate change-related occupational heat concerns on workers' safety and health, productivity and well-being are often overlooked or relegated as minor issues in social impact analyses of occupational heat exposure due to climate change. This paper offers a conceptual framework based on an appraisal and synthesis of the literature on social impacts of climate change-related occupational heat exposure on workers' safety and health, productivity and social welfare and the quest to localise and achieve sustainable development goals. A sustained global, national, institutional and individual collaborative involvement and financial support for research, improved adaptation and social protection strategies, predominantly in the developing world, where a large number of people work outdoors, can reduce heat exposure and boost the resilience and adaptive capacity of workers to facilitate efforts to achieve sustainable development goals.

Temperature Prediction Using the Missing Data Refinement Model Based on a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network

In this paper, we propose a new temperature prediction model based on deep learning by using real observed weather data. To this end, a huge amount of model training data is needed, but these data should not be defective. However, there is a limitation in collecting weather data since it is not possible to measure data that have been missed. Thus, the collected data are apt to be incomplete, with random or extended gaps. Therefore, the proposed temperature prediction model is used to refine missing data in order to restore missed weather data. In addition, since temperature is seasonal, the proposed model utilizes a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a kind of recurrent neural network known to be suitable for time-series data modeling. Furthermore, different configurations of LSTMs are investigated so that the proposed LSTM-based model can reflect the time-series traits of the temperature data. In particular, when a part of the data is detected as missing, it is restored by using the proposed model’s refinement function. After all the missing data are refined, the LSTM-based model is retrained using the refined data. Finally, the proposed LSTM-based temperature prediction model can predict the temperature through three time steps: 6, 12, and 24 h. Furthermore, the model is extended to predict 7 and 14 day future temperatures. The performance of the proposed model is measured by its root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and compared with the RMSEs of a feedforward deep neural network, a conventional LSTM neural network without any refinement function, and a mathematical model currently used by the meteorological office in Korea. Consequently, it is shown that the proposed LSTM-based model employing LSTM-refinement achieves the lowest RMSEs for 6, 12, and 24 h temperature prediction as well as for 7 and 14 day temperature prediction, compared to other DNN-based and LSTM-based models with either no refinement or linear interpolation. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is higher than that of the Unified Model (UM) Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) for 24 h temperature predictions.

Do exposure to outdoor temperatures, NO2 and PM10 affect the work-related injuries risk? A case-crossover study in three Italian cities, 2001-2010

OBJECTIVES

Studies on the effect of temperature on rates of work-related injuries (WRIs) are very recent, and are evolving in depth and scope. However, less is known about potential effects of air pollutants. Our objective was to analyse the association between WRI and NO₂, PM₁₀ and air temperature in three major Italian cities, and to identify groups of workers more at risk in Italy.

DESIGN

Time-stratified case-crossover study.

SETTINGS

Milan, Turin, Rome, years 2001-2010.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 468 816 WRI occurred between 2001 and 2010 in Milan, Turin and Rome were extracted from the Italian national workers' compensation authority database.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Associations between WRI and temperature, PM₁₀, NO₂, separately in the warm and in the cold season (WS, May-September; CS, November-February). Effect modification was studied by economic sector, occupational activity and indoor/outdoor job activity.

RESULTS

Exposure to NO₂ (lag 0-8) showed the highest effect on the risk of WRI,with ORs ranging from 1.20 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.24) in Milan to 1.30 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.37) in Turin in the WS. The effect of exposure to PM₁₀ was milder but consistent across all cities: ORs from 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.12) in Turin to 1.15 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.18) in Rome. Temperature was associated with risk of WRI only among those working in construction (highest association in Rome 1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12), transportation (highest association in Milan 1.05; 95% CI 0.96 to 1.14) and the energy industry (highest association in Milan 1.57; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.38) in the WS in all cities. A weak effect of low temperatures was observed in the CS only in Rome.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposures to NO₂ resulted as strongest hazard for WRIs, mainly in warm months, while the independent effect of temperature was significant only in specific subgroups of workers. These results could be considered to better plan safety prevention programmes.

Estimation of work-related injury and economic burden attributable to heat stress in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Climate change has exacerbated the health effects of high ambient temperatures on occupational health and safety; however, to what extent heat stress can induce workplace injuries and economic costs is poorly studied. This study aimed to quantify the attributable fractions of injury claims and subsequent insurance payouts using data from work-related injury insurance system in Guangzhou, China.

METHODS

Individual workers' injury claims data were collected for the period of 2011-2012, including demographic characteristics and work-related information. Daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT, °C) was calculated from meteorological data. To examine the association between WBGT index and work-related injury, we fit a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model. Then we calculated the numbers of injury claims and costs of insurance compensations attributable to days with WBGT above the heat stress limit according to the national occupational health standards.

RESULTS

There were 9550 work-related injury claims, resulting in an insurance payout of 282.3 million Chinese Yuan. The risks of injury claims increased with rising WBGT. 4.8% (95% eCI: 2.9%-6.9%) of work-related injuries and 4.1% (95% eCI: 0.2%-7.7%) of work-related injury insurance payouts were attributed to heat exposure for WBGT threshold above the heat stress limit. Male workers, those in small enterprises and with low educational attainment were especially sensitive to the effects of heat exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat stress can contribute to higher risk of work-related injury and substantial economic costs. Quantified the impacts of injuries and related economic costs should be considered to develop targeted preventive measures in the context of climate change.

Evaluation of the impact of heat stress on the occurrence of occupational injuries: Meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence indicates that the exposure to high heat levels in the workplace results in health problems in workers. A meta-analysis was carried out to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of heat exposure on the risk of occupational injuries.

METHODS

A search strategy was conducted to retrieve studies on the effects of climate change on occupational injury risk. Among the 406 identified, 5 time-series and 3 case-crossover studies were selected for meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Pooled risk estimates for time-series and case-crossover studies combined, and then separated, were 1.005 (95%CI: 1.001-1009), 1.002 (95%CI: 0.998-1.005), and 1.014 (95%CI: 1.012-1.017), respectively. Subgroup analyses found increased risks (not statistically significant) for male gender, age <25 years and agriculture.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings can orient further research to assess the effects of heat at workplace and consequently to establish better health policies for managing such exposure in at-risk regions.