Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures

Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest-forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year-to-year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan-European species. Here, we analysed 50 long-term datasets of population-level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site-specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population-level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics.

Evolution of masting in plants is linked to investment in low tissue mortality

Masting, a variable and synchronized variation in reproductive effort is a prevalent strategy among perennial plants, but the factors leading to interspecific differences in masting remain unclear. Here, we investigate interannual patterns of reproductive investment in 517 species of terrestrial perennial plants, including herbs, graminoids, shrubs, and trees. We place these patterns in the context of the plants' phylogeny, habitat, form and function. Our findings reveal that masting is widespread across the plant phylogeny. Nonetheless, reversion from masting to regular seed production is also common. While interannual variation in seed production is highest in temperate and boreal zones, our analysis controlling for environment and phylogeny indicates that masting is more frequent in species that invest in tissue longevity. Our modeling exposes masting-trait relationships that would otherwise remain hidden and provides large-scale evidence that the costs of delayed reproduction play a significant role in the evolution of variable reproduction in plants.

Mast seeding: Study of oak mechanisms carries wider lessons

Variable acorn crops in oaks were thought to reflect variable pollination success, but a new study shows local climates determine whether pollination or flower production drives acorn crops. This affects forest regeneration under climate change, and cautions against dichotomous summaries of biological phenomena.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis

Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.

Costs and benefits of masting: economies of scale are not reduced by negative density-dependence in seedling survival in Sorbus aucuparia

Masting is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants that helps to reduce seed predation and increase pollination. However, masting can involve costs, notably negative density-dependent (NDD) seedling survival caused by concentrating reproduction in intermittent events. Masting benefits have received widespread attention, but the costs are understudied, which precludes understanding why some plant species have evolved intense masting, while others reproduce regularly. We followed seed production, seed predation (both 13 yr), and seedling recruitment and survival (11 yr) in Sorbus aucuparia. We tested whether NDD in seedling survival after mast years can reduce the benefits of pulsed reproduction that come through predator satiation. Seed predation rates were extreme in our population (mean = 75%), but were reduced by masting. The commonly accepted, but untested, assertion that pulsed recruitment is associated with strong NDD was unsupported. Consequently, the proportion of seedlings that survived their first year increased with fruit production. This provides a rare test of economies of scale beyond the seed stage. Our results provide estimation of the costs of mast seeding, and indicate that these may be lower than expected. Low masting costs, if common, may help explain why masting is such a widespread reproductive strategy throughout the plant kingdom.

Natural disturbances and masting: from mechanisms to fitness consequences

The timing of seed production and release is highly relevant for successful plant reproduction. Ecological disturbances, if synchronized with reproductive effort, can increase the chances of seeds and seedlings to germinate and establish. This can be especially true under variable and synchronous seed production (masting). Several observational studies have reported worldwide evidence for co-occurrence of disturbances and seed bumper crops in forests. Here, we review the evidence for interaction between disturbances and masting in global plant communities; we highlight feedbacks between these two ecological processes and posit an evolutionary pathway leading to the selection of traits that allow trees to synchronize seed crops with disturbances. Finally, we highlight relevant questions to be tested on the functional and evolutionary relationship between disturbances and masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Studying the genetic basis of masting

The mechanisms underlying mast seeding have traditionally been studied by collecting long-term observational data on seed crops and correlating seedfall with environmental variables. Significant progress in ecological genomics will improve our understanding of the evolution of masting by clarifying the genetic basis of masting traits and the role of natural selection in shaping those traits. Here, we summarize three important aspects in studying the evolution of masting at the genetic level: which traits govern masting, whether those traits are genetically regulated, and which taxa show wide variation in these traits. We then introduce recent studies on the molecular mechanisms of masting. Those studies measure seasonal changes in gene expression in natural conditions to quantify how multiple environmental factors combine to regulate floral initiation, which in many masting plant species is the single largest contributor to among-year variation in seed crops. We show that Fagaceae offers exceptional opportunities for evolutionary investigations because of its diversity at both the phenotypic and genetic levels and existing documented genome sequences. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Climate change and plant reproduction: trends and drivers of mast seeding change

Climate change is reshaping global vegetation through its impacts on plant mortality, but recruitment creates the next generation of plants and will determine the structure and composition of future communities. Recruitment depends on mean seed production, but also on the interannual variability and among-plant synchrony in seed production, the phenomenon known as mast seeding. Thus, predicting the long-term response of global vegetation dynamics to climate change requires understanding the response of masting to changing climate. Recently, data and methods have become available allowing the first assessments of long-term changes in masting. Reviewing the literature, we evaluate evidence for a fingerprint of climate change on mast seeding and discuss the drivers and impacts of these changes. We divide our discussion into the main characteristics of mast seeding: interannual variation, synchrony, temporal autocorrelation and mast frequency. Data indicate that masting patterns are changing but the direction of that change varies, likely reflecting the diversity of proximate factors underlying masting across taxa. Experiments to understand the proximate mechanisms underlying masting, in combination with the analysis of long-term datasets, will enable us to understand this observed variability in the response of masting. This will allow us to predict future shifts in masting patterns, and consequently ecosystem impacts of climate change via its impacts on masting. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A novel TFL1 gene induces flowering in the mast seeding alpine snow tussock, Chionochloa pallens (Poaceae)

Masting, the synchronous, highly variable flowering across years by a population of perennial plants, has been reported to be precipitated by various factors including nitrogen levels, drought conditions, and spring and summer temperatures. However, the molecular mechanism leading to the initiation of flowering in masting plants in particular years remains largely unknown, despite the potential impact of climate change on masting phenology. We studied genes controlling flowering in the alpine snow tussock Chionochloa pallens (Poaceae), a strongly masting perennial grass. We used a range of in situ and manipulated plants to obtain leaf samples from tillers (shoots) which subsequently remained vegetative or flowered. Here, we show that a novel orthologue of TERMINAL FLOWER 1 (TFL1; normally a repressor of flowering in other species) promotes the induction of flowering in C. pallens (hence Anti-TFL1), a conclusion supported by structural, functional and expression analyses. Global transcriptomic analysis indicated differential expression of CpTPS1, CpGA20ox1, CpREF6 and CpHDA6, emphasizing the role of endogenous cues and epigenetic regulation in terms of responsiveness of plants to initiate flowering. Our molecular-based study provides insights into the cellular mechanism of flowering in masting plants and will supplement ecological and statistical models to predict how masting will respond to global climate change.

Climate warming causes mast seeding to break down by reducing sensitivity to weather cues

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide with consequences for population recruitment and migration potential. For the many species that regenerate through synchronized, quasiperiodic reproductive events termed masting, these changes include decreases in the synchrony and interannual variation in seed production. This breakdown in the occurrence of masting features harms reproduction by decreasing the efficiency of pollination and increasing seed predation. Changes in masting are often paralleled by warming temperatures, but the underlying proximate mechanisms are unknown. We used a unique 39-year study of 139 European beech (Fagus sylvatica) trees that experienced masting breakdown to track the seed developmental cycle and pinpoint phases where weather effects on seed production have changed over time. A cold followed by warm summer led to large coordinated flowering efforts among plants. However, trees failed to respond to the weather signal as summers warmed and the frequency of reproductive cues changed fivefold. Less synchronous flowering resulted in less efficient pollination that further decreased the synchrony of seed maturation. As global temperatures are expected to increase this century, perennial plants that fine-tune their reproductive schedules based on temperature cues may suffer regeneration failures.

Does masting scale with plant size? High reproductive variability and low synchrony in small and unproductive individuals

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In a range of plant species, the distribution of individual mean fecundity is skewed and dominated by a few highly fecund individuals. Larger plants produce greater seed crops, but the exact nature of the relationship between size and reproductive patterns is poorly understood. This is especially clear in plants that reproduce by exhibiting synchronized quasi-periodic variation in fruit production, a process called masting.

METHODS

We investigated covariation of plant size and fecundity with individual-plant-level masting patterns and seed predation in 12 mast-seeding species: Pinus pinea, Astragalus scaphoides, Sorbus aucuparia, Quercus ilex, Q. humilis, Q. rubra, Q. alba, Q. montana, Chionochloa pallens, C. macra, Celmisia lyallii and Phormium tenax.

KEY RESULTS

Fecundity was non-linearly related to masting patterns. Small and unproductive plants frequently failed to produce any seeds, which elevated their annual variation and decreased synchrony. Above a low fecundity threshold, plants had similar variability and synchrony, regardless of their size and productivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows that within-species variation in masting patterns is correlated with variation in fecundity, which in turn is related to plant size. Low synchrony of low-fertility plants shows that the failure years were idiosyncratic to each small plant, which in turn implies that the small plants fail to reproduce because of plant-specific factors (e.g. internal resource limits). Thus, the behaviour of these sub-producers is apparently the result of trade-offs in resource allocation and environmental limits with which the small plants cannot cope. Plant size and especially fecundity and propensity for mast failure years play a major role in determining the variability and synchrony of reproduction in plants.

Flowering synchrony drives reproductive success in a wind-pollinated tree

Synchronised and quasi-periodic production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. Flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesised to provide the mechanistic link for the observed relationship between weather and population-level seed production. We report the first experimental test of the phenological synchrony hypotheses as a driver of pollen limitation in mast seeding oaks (Quercus ilex). Higher flowering synchrony yielded greater pollination efficiency, which resulted in 2-fold greater seed set in highly synchronised oaks compared to asynchronous individuals. Pollen addition removed the negative effect of asynchronous flowering on seed set. Because phenological synchrony operates through environmental variation, this result suggests that oak masting is synchronised by exogenous rather than endogenous factors. It also points to a mechanism by which changes in flowering phenology can affect plant reproduction of mast-seeding plants, with subsequent implications for community dynamics.

Biogeography and phylogeny of masting: do global patterns fit functional hypotheses?

Interannual variability of seed crops (CVp) has profound consequences for plant populations and food webs, where high CVp is termed 'masting'. Here we ask: is global variation in CVp better predicted by plant or habitat differences consistent with adaptive economies of scale, in which flower and seed benefits increase disproportionately during mast years; or by passive mechanisms, in which seed production responds to variation in resource availability associated with climate variability? To address this question, we compiled a dataset for phylogenetic comparative analysis of long-term fruit/seed production for plants comprising 920 time series spanning 311 plant species. Factors associated with both adaptive benefits of CVp (wind pollination and seed dispersal) and climatic variability (variability of summer precipitation) were among the best predictors of global variation in CVp. We observed a hump-shaped relationship between CVp and latitude and intermediate phylogenetic and geographic signals in CVp. CVp is patterned nonrandomly across the globe and over the plant tree of life, where high CVp is associated with species benefiting from economies of scale of seed or flower production and with species that experience variable rainfall over summer months when seeds usually mature.

Is forest fecundity resistant to drought? Results from an 18-yr rainfall-reduction experiment

Recruitment is a primary determinant of the long-term dynamics of plant populations in changing environments. However, little information is known about the effects of anthropogenic environmental changes on reproductive ecology of trees. We evaluated the impact of experimentally induced 18 yr of drought on reproduction of three contrasting forest trees: Quercus ilex, Phillyrea latifolia and Arbutus unedo. Rainfall reduction did not decrease tree fecundity. Drought, however, affected the allocation of resources in Q. ilex and A. unedo but not the more drought tolerant P. latifolia. Larger crop production by Q. ilex and A. unedo was associated with a stronger decrease in growth in the rainfall-reduction plots compared with the control plots, suggesting that these species were able to maintain their fecundity by shifting their allocation of resources away from growth. Our results indicated resistance to change in tree fecundity in Mediterranean-type forest subjected to an average 15% decrease in the amount of soil moisture, suggesting that these ecosystems may adapt to a progressive increase in arid conditions. However, the species-specific reductions in growth may indirectly affect future fecundity and ultimately shift community composition, even without immediate direct effects of drought on tree fecundity.

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.

Molecular control of masting: an introduction to an epigenetic summer memory

BACKGROUND

Mast flowering ('masting') is characterized by mass synchronized flowering at irregular intervals in populations of perennial plants over a wide geographical area, resulting in irregular high seed production. While masting is a global phenomenon, it is particularly prevalent in the alpine flora of New Zealand. Increases in global temperature may alter the masting pattern, affecting wider communities with a potential impact on plant-pollinator interactions, seed set and food availability for seed-consuming species.

SCOPE

This review summarizes an ecological temperature model (ΔT) that is being used to predict the intensity of a masting season. We introduce current molecular studies on flowering and the concept of an 'epigenetic summer memory' as a driver of mast flowering. We propose a hypothetical model based on temperature-associated epigenetic modifications of the floral integrator genes FLOWERING LOCUS T, FLOWERING LOCUS C and SUPPRESSOR OF OVEREXPRESSION OF CONSTANS1.

CONCLUSIONS

Genome-wide transcriptomic and targeted gene expression analyses are needed to establish the developmental and physiological processes associated with masting. Such analyses may identify changes in gene expression that can be used to predict the intensity of a forthcoming masting season, as well as to determine the extent to which climate change will influence the mass synchronized flowering of masting species, with downstream impacts on their associated communities.

From theory to experiments for testing the proximate mechanisms of mast seeding: an agenda for an experimental ecology

Highly variable and synchronised production of seeds by plant populations, known as masting, is implicated in many important ecological processes, but how it arises remains poorly understood. The lack of experimental studies prevents underlying mechanisms from being explicitly tested, and thereby precludes meaningful predictions on the consequences of changing environments for plant reproductive patterns and global vegetation dynamics. Here we review the most relevant proximate drivers of masting and outline a research agenda that takes the biology of masting from a largely observational field of ecology to one rooted in mechanistic understanding. We divide the experimental framework into three main processes: resource dynamics, pollen limitation and genetic and hormonal regulation, and illustrate how specific predictions about proximate mechanisms can be tested, highlighting the few successful experiments as examples. We envision that the experiments we outline will deliver new insights into how and why masting patterns might respond to a changing environment.

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants.

Flower phenology as a disruptor of the fruiting dynamics in temperate oak species

Many perennial plants display masting, that is, fruiting with strong interannual variations, irregular and synchronized between trees within the population. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the early flower phenology in temperate oak species promotes stochasticity into their fruiting dynamics, which could play a major role in tree reproductive success. From a large field monitoring network, we compared the pollen phenology between temperate and Mediterranean oak species. Then, focusing on temperate oak species, we explored the influence of the weather around the time of budburst and flowering on seed production, and simulated with a mechanistic model the consequences that an evolutionary shifting of flower phenology would have on fruiting dynamics. Temperate oak species release pollen earlier in the season than do Mediterranean oak species. Such early flowering in temperate oak species results in pollen often being released during unfavorable weather conditions and frequently results in reproductive failure. If pollen release were delayed as a result of natural selection, fruiting dynamics would exhibit much reduced stochastic variation. We propose that early flower phenology might be adaptive by making mast-seeding years rare and unpredictable, which would greatly help in controlling the dynamics of seed consumers.

Dispersal of allergenic pollen from Cryptomeria japonica and Chamaecyparis obtusa: characteristic annual fluctuation patterns caused by intermittent phase synchronisations

Trees produce pollen during specific times of the year. Pollen can induce pollinosis, a type of allergic rhinitis, in humans. In Japan, allergenic pollen is mainly dispersed from February to May. Using data collected at 120 observation sites managed by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment, we studied the annual patterns of airborne allergenic pollen. The allergenic pollen showed an alternating ON-OFF cycle, but the length of the cycle differed among regions. We used an in-phase/out-of-phase analysis to quantify two characteristic features of the synchronisation. The degrees of phase synchronisation were strong in eastern and weak in western Japan. The pattern of allergenic pollen dispersal throughout Japan is typical intermittent synchronisation. This is the first study to evaluate allergenic pollen's distribution from a phase synchronisation viewpoint.

Environmental Veto Synchronizes Mast Seeding in Four Contrasting Tree Species

Synchronized and variable reproduction by perennial plants, called mast seeding, is a major reproductive strategy of trees. The need to accumulate sufficient resources after depletion following fruiting (resource budget), the efficiency of mass flowering for outcross pollination (pollen coupling), or the external factors preventing reproduction (environmental veto) could all synchronize masting. We used seed production data for four species (Quercus ilex, Quercus humilis, Sorbus aucuparia, and Pinus albicaulis) to parametrize resource budget models of masting. Based on species life-history characteristics, we hypothesized that pollen coupling should synchronize reproduction in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis, while in Q. ilex and Q. humilis, environmental veto should be a major factor. Pollen coupling was stronger in S. aucuparia and P. albicaulis than in oaks, while veto was more frequent in the latter. Yet in all species, costs of reproduction were too small to impose a replenishment period. A synchronous environmental veto, in the presence of environmental stochasticity, was sufficient to produce observed variability and synchrony in reproduction. In the past, vetoes like frost events that prevent reproduction have been perceived as negative for plants. In fact, they could be selectively favored as a way to create mast seeding.

Correlated seed failure as an environmental veto to synchronize reproduction of masting plants

Variable, synchronized seed production, called masting, is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants. Resource dynamics, pollination success, and, as described here, environmental veto are possible proximate mechanisms driving masting. We explored the environmental veto hypothesis, which assumes that reproductive synchrony is driven by external factors preventing reproduction in some years, by extending the resource budget model of masting with correlated reproductive failure. We ran this model across its parameter space to explore how key parameters interact to drive seeding dynamics. Next, we parameterized the model based on 16 yr of seed production data for populations of red (Quercus rubra) and white (Quercus alba) oaks. We used these empirical models to simulate seeding dynamics, and compared simulated time series with patterns observed in the field. Simulations showed that resource dynamics and reproduction failure can produce masting even in the absence of pollen coupling. In concordance with this, in both oaks, among-year variation in resource gain and correlated reproductive failure were necessary and sufficient to reproduce masting, whereas pollen coupling, although present, was not necessary. Reproductive failure caused by environmental veto may drive large-scale synchronization without density-dependent pollen limitation. Reproduction-inhibiting weather events are prevalent in ecosystems, making described mechanisms likely to operate in many systems.

The Moran effect and environmental vetoes: phenological synchrony and drought drive seed production in a Mediterranean oak

Masting is the highly variable production of synchronized seed crops, and is a common reproductive strategy in plants. Weather has long been recognized as centrally involved in driving seed production in masting plants. However, the theory behind mechanisms connecting weather and seeding variation has only recently been developed, and still lacks empirical evaluation. We used 12-year long seed production data for 255 holm oaks (Quercus ilex), as well as airborne pollen and meteorological data, and tested whether masting is driven by environmental constraints: phenological synchrony and associated pollination efficiency, and drought-related acorn abscission. We found that warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons, and length of the pollen seasons was negatively related to acorn production, supporting the phenological synchrony hypothesis. Furthermore, the relationship between phenological synchrony and acorn production was modulated by spring drought, and effects of environmental vetoes on seed production were dependent on last year's environmental constraint, implying passive resource storage. Both vetoes affected among-tree synchrony in seed production. Finally, precipitation preceding acorn maturation was positively related to seed production, mitigating apparent resource depletion following high crop production in the previous year. These results provide new insights into mechanisms beyond widely reported weather and seed production correlations.

Modeling the impact of reproductive mode on masting

Masting is defined as the intermittent highly variable production of seed in a plant population. According to reproductive modes, that is, sexual and asexual reproduction, masting species can be separated into three groups, that is, (1) species, for example, bamboo, flower only once before they die; (2) species, for example, Fagus, reproduce sexually; and (3) species, for example, Stipa tenacissima, reproduce both sexually and asexually. Several theories have been proposed to explore the underlying mechanisms of masting. However, to our knowledge, no theory has been found to explain the mechanism of masting species that reproduce both sexually and asexually. Here we refine the Resource Budget Model by considering a trade-off between sexual and asexual reproduction. Besides the depletion efficient (i.e., the ratio of the cost of seed setting and the cost of flowering), other factors, such as the annual remaining resource (i.e., the rest of the resource from the photosynthetic activity after allocating to growth and maintenance), the trade-off between sexual and asexual reproduction, and the reproductive thresholds, also affect masting. Moreover, two potential reproductive strategies are found to explain the mechanisms: (1) When the annual remaining resource is relatively low, plants reproduce asexually and a part of the resource is accumulated as the cost of asexual reproduction is less than the annual remaining resource. Plants flower and set fruits once the accumulated resource exceeds the threshold of sexual reproduction; (2) when the annual remaining resource is relatively high, and the accumulated resource surpasses the threshold of sexual reproduction, masting occurs. Remarkably, under certain depletion efficient, more investigation in sexual reproduction will lead plants to reproduce periodically. Additionally, plants investigate less resource to reproduce periodically when depletion efficient keeps increasing as plants can reproduce efficiently. Overall, our study provides new insights into the interpretation of masting, especially for species that reproduce both sexually and asexually.

Masting in wind-pollinated trees: system-specific roles of weather and pollination dynamics in driving seed production

Masting, the highly variable production of synchronized large seed crops, is a common reproductive strategy in plant populations. In wind-pollinated trees, flowering and pollination dynamics are hypothesized to provide the mechanistic link for the well-known relationship between weather and population-level seed production. Several hypotheses make predictions about the effect of weather on annual pollination success. The pollen coupling hypothesis predicts that weather and plant resources drive the flowering effort of trees, which directly translates into the size of seed crops through efficient pollination. In contrast, the pollination Moran effect hypothesis predicts that weather affects pollination efficiency, leading to occasional bumper crops. Furthermore, the recently formulated phenology synchrony hypothesis predicts that Moran effects can arise because of weather effects on flowering synchrony, which, in turn, drives pollination efficiency. We investigated the relationship between weather, airborne pollen, and seed production in common European trees, two oak species (Quercus petraea and Q. robur) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) with a 19-yr data set from three sites in Poland. Our results show that warm summers preceding flowering correlated with high pollen abundance and warm springs resulted in short pollen seasons (i.e., high flowering synchrony) for all three species. Pollen abundance was the best predictor for seed crops in beech, as predicted under pollen coupling. In oaks, short pollen seasons, rather than pollen abundance, correlated with large seed crops, providing support for the pollination Moran effect and phenology synchrony hypotheses. Fundamentally different mechanisms may therefore drive masting in species of the family Fagacae.

Unravelling proximate cues of mass flowering in the tropical forests of South-East Asia from gene expression analyses

Elucidating the physiological mechanisms of the irregular yet concerted flowering rhythm of mass flowering tree species in the tropics requires long-term monitoring of flowering phenology, exogenous and endogenous environmental factors, as well as identifying interactions and dependencies among these factors. To investigate the proximate factors for floral initiation of mast seeding trees in the tropics, we monitored the expression dynamics of two key flowering genes, meteorological conditions and endogenous resources over two flowering events of Shorea curtisii and Shorea leprosula in the Malay Peninsula. Comparisons of expression dynamics of genes studied indicated functional conservation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT) and LEAFY (LFY) in Shorea. The genes were highly expressed at least 1 month before anthesis for both species. A mathematical model considering the synergistic effect of cool temperature and drought on activation of the flowering gene was successful in predicting the observed gene expression patterns. Requirement of both cool temperature and drought for floral transition suggested by the model implies that flowering phenologies of these species are sensitive to climate change. Our molecular phenology approach in the tropics sheds light on the conserved role of flowering genes in plants inhabiting different climate zones and can be widely applied to dissect the flowering processes in other plant species.

Direct coupling: a possible strategy to control fruit production in alternate bearing

We investigated the theoretical possibility of applying phenomenon of synchronization of coupled nonlinear oscillators to control alternate bearing in citrus. The alternate bearing of fruit crops is a phenomenon in which a year of heavy yield is followed by an extremely light one. This phenomenon has been modeled previously by the resource budget model, which describes a typical nonlinear oscillator of the tent map type. We have demonstrated how direct coupling, which could be practically realized through grafting, contributes to the nonlinear dynamics of alternate bearing, especially phase synchronization. Our results show enhancement of out-of-phase synchronization in production, which depends on initial conditions obtained under the given system parameters. Based on these numerical experiments, we propose a new method to control alternate bearing, say in citrus, thereby enabling stable fruit production. The feasibility of validating the current results through field experimentation is also discussed.

Mechanisms of mast seeding: resources, weather, cues, and selection

546 I. 546 II. 547 III. 548 IV. 552 V. 554 VI. 556 VII. 558 VIII. 558 IX. 559 559 References 559 SUMMARY: Mast seeding is a widespread and widely studied phenomenon. However, the physiological mechanisms that mediate masting events and link them to weather and plant resources are still debated. Here, we explore how masting is affected by plant resource budgets, fruit maturation success, and hormonal coordination of cues including weather and resources. There is little empirical support for the commonly stated hypothesis that plants store carbohydrates over several years to expend in a high-seed year. Plants can switch carbohydrates away from growth in high-seed years, and seed crops are more probably limited by nitrogen or phosphorus. Resources are clearly involved in the proximate mechanisms driving masting, but resource budget (RB) models cannot create masting in the absence of selection because some underlying selective benefit is required to set the level of a 'full' seed crop at greater than the annual resource increment. Economies of scale (EOSs) provide the ultimate factor selecting for masting, but EOSs probably always interact with resources, which modify the relationship between weather cues and reproduction. Thus, RB and EOS models are not alternative explanations for masting - both are required. Experiments manipulating processes that affect mast seeding will help clarify the physiological mechanisms that underlie mast seeding.

Is the relationship between mast-seeding and weather in oaks related to their life-history or phylogeny?

Although the functional basis of variable and synchronous seed production (masting behavior) has been extensively investigated, only recently has attention been focused on the proximate mechanisms driving this phenomenon. We analyzed the relationship between weather and acorn production in 15 species of oaks (genus Quercus) from three geographic regions on two continents, with the goals of determining the extent to which similar sets of weather factors affect masting behavior across species and to explore the ecological basis for the similarities detected. Lag-1 temporal autocorrelations were predominantly negative, supporting the hypothesis that stored resources play a role in masting behavior across this genus, and we were able to determine environmental variables correlating with acorn production in all but one of the species. Standard weather variables outperformed "differential-cue" variables based on the difference between successive years in a majority of species, which is consistent with the hypothesis that weather is linked directly to the proximate mechanism driving seed production and that masting in these species is likely to be sensitive to climate change. Based on the correlations between weather variables and acorn production, cluster analysis failed to generate any obvious groups of species corresponding to phylogeny or life-history. Discriminant function analyses, however, were able to identify the phylogenetic section to which the species belonged and, controlling for phylogeny, the length of time species required to mature acorns, whether they were evergreen or deciduous, and, to a lesser extent, the geographic region to which they are endemic. These results indicate that similar proximate mechanisms are driving acorn production in these species of oaks, that the environmental factors driving seed production in oaks are to some extent phylogenetically conserved, and that the shared mechanisms driving acorn production result in some degree of synchrony among coexisting species in a way that potentially enhances predator satiation, at least when they have acorns requiring the same length of time to mature.

Parameterisation and validation of a resource budget model for masting using spatiotemporal flowering data of individual trees

Synchronised and fluctuating reproduction by plant populations, called masting, is widespread in diverse taxonomic groups. Here, we propose a new method to explore the proximate mechanism of masting by combining spatiotemporal flowering data, biochemical analysis of resource allocation and mathematical modelling. Flowering data of 170 trees over 13 years showed the emergence of clustering with trees in a given cluster mutually synchronised in reproduction, which was successfully explained by resource budget models. Analysis of resources invested in the development of reproductive organs showed that parametric values used in the model are significantly different between nitrogen and carbon. Using a fully parameterised model, we showed that the observed flowering pattern is explained only when the interplay between nitrogen dynamics and climatic cues was considered. This result indicates that our approach successfully identified resource type-specific roles on masting and that the method is suitable for a wide range of plant species.

Resource limitation underlying multiple masting models makes mast seeding sensitive to future climate change

Mechanistic models can help resolve controversy over the responses of mast seeding plants to future environmental change. We evaluate drivers of mast seeding by: developing and validating a new mechanistic resource-based model of mast seeding using four 40-yr Chionochloa (snow tussock) datasets; and comparing the performance of competing empirically-based statistical models, that aim to approximate the mechanisms underlying mast seeding, in explaining simulated and observed data. Our mechanistic model explained 90-99% of the variation in Chionochloa flowering, with higher rates of stored resource mobilisation and lower probability of climatic induction of flowering occurring at lower fertility sites. Inter-annual variation in floral induction and the degree to which seeding is resource-limited explained shifts in the relative performance of different empirical models fitted to data simulated from the mechanistic model. Empirical models explicitly capturing the interaction between the floral induction cue and internal resource state underlying the resource-limited induction mechanism had > 8.7× the statistical support of alternatives when fitted to Chionochloa datasets. We find support for resource-limited floral induction with multiple empirical models consistent with this same mechanism. As both resource acquisition and flowering cues are climate sensitive, we expect climate change to impact upon patterns of mast seeding.

Understanding the alternate bearing phenomenon: Resource budget model

We consider here the resource budget model of plant energy resources, which characterizes the ecological alternate bearing phenomenon in fruit crops, in which high and low yields occur in alternate years. The resource budget model is a tent-type map, which we study in detail. An infinite number of chaotic bands are observed in this map, which are separated by periodic unstable fixed points. These m bands chaotic attractors become m/2 bands when the period-m unstable fixed points simultaneously collide with the chaotic bands. The distance between two sets of coexisting chaotic bands that are separated by a period-1 unstable fixed point is discussed. We explore the effects of varying a range of parameters of the model. The presented results explain the characteristic behavior of the alternate bearing estimated from the real field data. Effects of noise are also explored. The significance of these results to ecological perspectives of the alternate bearing phenomenon is highlighted.

Evolutionary drivers of mast-seeding in a long-lived desert shrub

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

The evolutionary drivers and proximal regulators of mast-seeding are well understood for species of mesic environments, but how these regulators interact with high spatial and interannual variability in growing-season precipitation for a masting species in a desert environment has never been examined.

METHOD

We followed flowering and seed production in 16 populations of the North American desert shrub blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) from contrasting environments across its range over an 11-year period to determine patterns of interannual reproductive output variation.

KEY RESULT

Patterns of reproductive output in blackbrush did not track current growing season precipitation, but instead were regulated by prior-year weather cues. The strength of the response to the masting cue depended on habitat quality, with higher mean reproductive output, shorter intervals between years of high seed production, and lower CVp at more favorable sites. Wind pollination efficiency was demonstrated to be an important evolutionary driver of masting in blackbrush, and satiation of heteromyid seed predator-dispersers was supported as an evolutionary driver based on earlier studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Both the evolutionary drivers and proximal regulators of masting in blackbrush are similar to those demonstrated for masting species of mesic environments. Relatively low synchrony across populations in response to regional masting cues occurs at least partly because prior-year environmental cues can trigger masting efforts in years with resource limitation due to suboptimal precipitation, especially in more xeric low-elevation habitats.

Pollen limitation and flower abortion in a wind-pollinated, masting tree

Pollen limitation is a key assumption of theories that explain mast seeding, which is common among wind-pollinated and woody plants. In particular, the pollen coupling hypothesis and pollination Moran effect hypothesis assume pollen limitation as a factor that synchronizes seed crops across individuals. The existence of pollen limitation has not, however, been unambiguously demonstrated in wind-pollinated, masting trees. We conducted a two-year pollen supplementation experiment on a masting oak species, Quercus lobata. Supplemental pollen increased acorn set in one year but not in the other, supporting the importance of pollen coupling and pollination Moran effect models of mast seeding. We also tracked the fate of female flowers over five years and found that the vast majority of flowers were aborted for reasons unrelated to pollination, even in the presence of excess pollen. Pollen limitation can reduce annual seed set in a wind-pollinated tree, but factors other than pollen limitation cause the majority of flower abortion.

Spatial patterning and floral synchrony among trillium populations with contrasting histories of herbivory

We investigated the spatial patterning and floral synchrony within and among populations of a non-clonal, forest understory herb, Trillium catesbaei. Two populations of T. catesbaei within Great Smoky Mountains National Park were monitored for five years: Cades Cove (high deer abundance) and Whiteoak Sink (low deer abundance). All individuals within each population were mapped during year one and five. Only flowering and single-leaf juveniles were mapped during intervening years. Greater distances between flowering plants (plants currently in flower) and substantially lower population densities and smaller patch sizes were observed at Cades Cove versus Whiteoak Sink. However, with the exception of flowering plants, contrasting histories of herbivory did not appear to fundamentally alter the spatial patterning of the T. catesbaei population at Cades Cove, an area with a long and well-documented history of deer overabundance. Regardless of browse history, non-flowering life stages were significantly clustered at all spatial scales examined. Flowering plants were clustered in all years at Whiteoak Sink, but more often randomly distributed at Cades Cove, possibly as a result of their lower abundance. Between years, however, there was a positive spatial association between the locations of flowering plants at both sites. Flowering rate was synchronous between sites, but lagged a year behind favorable spring growing conditions, which likely allowed plants to allocate photosynthate from a favorable year towards flowering the subsequent year. Collectively, our results suggest that chronically high levels of herbivory may be associated with spatial patterning of flowering within populations of a non-clonal plant. They also highlight the persistence of underlying spatial patterns, as evidenced by high levels of spatial clustering among non-flowering individuals, and the pervasive, although muted in a population subjected to chronic herbivory, influence of precipitation and temperature on flowering in long-lived forest herbs.

Synchrony in malaria infections: how intensifying within-host competition can be adaptive

Malaria parasites exhibit great diversity in the coordination of their asexual life cycle within the host, ranging from asynchronous growth to tightly synchronized cycles of invasion and emergence from red blood cells. Synchronized reproduction should come at a high cost--intensifying competition among offspring--so why would some Plasmodium species engage in such behavior and others not? We use a delayed differential equation model to show that synchronized infections can be favored when (1) there is limited interference among parasites competing for red blood cells, (2) transmission success is an accelerating function of sexual parasite abundance, (3) the target of saturating immunity is short-lived, and (4) coinfections with asynchronous parasites are rare. As a consequence, synchrony may be beneficial or costly, in line with the diverse patterns of synchronization observed in natural and lab infections. By allowing us to characterize diverse temporal dynamics, the model framework provides a basis for making predictions about disease severity and for projecting evolutionary responses to interventions.