The risk of flawed inference in evolutionary studies when detectability is less than one

Disentangling the influence of entanglement on recruitment in North Atlantic right whales

North Atlantic right whales are Critically Endangered and declining, with entanglements in fishing gear a key contributor to their decline. Entanglement events can result in lethal and sub-lethal (i.e. increased energetic demands and reduced foraging ability) impacts, with the latter influencing critical life-history states, such as reproduction. Using a multi-event framework, we developed a Bayesian mark-recapture model to investigate the influence of entanglement severity on survival and recruitment for female right whales. We used information from 199 known-aged females sighted between 1977 and 2018, combined with known entanglements of varying severity that were classified as minor, moderate or severe. Severe entanglements resulted in an average decline in survival of 27% for experienced non-breeders, 9% for breeders and 26% for pre-breeding females compared with other entanglements and unentangled individuals. Surviving individuals with severe entanglements had low transitional probabilities to breeders, but surprisingly, individuals with minor entanglements had the lowest transitional probabilities, contrary to expectations underpinning current management actions. Management actions are needed to address the lethal and sub-lethal impacts of entanglements, regardless of severity classification.

Catch Effectiveness Revealed by Site-Related Differences in Capture-Mark-Recapture Methods: A Butterfly Metapopulation Study

Understanding metapopulation structures is very important in the context of ecological studies and conservation. Crucial in this respect are the abundances of both the whole metapopulation and its constituent subpopulations. In recent decades, capture-mark-recapture studies have been considered the most reliable means of calculating such abundances. In butterfly studies, individual insects are usually caught with an entomological net. But the effectiveness of this method can vary for a number of reasons: differences between fieldworkers, in time, between sites etc. This article analyses catch effectiveness data with respect to two subpopulations of the Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo) metapopulation in the Pieniny National Park (Polish Carpathians). The results show that this parameter varied significantly between sites, probably because of differences in microrelief and plant cover. In addition, a method is proposed that will include information on catch effectiveness for estimating the sizes of particular subpopulations and will help to elucidate the structure of the entire metapopulation.

An explanation for negligible senescence in animals

Negligible or negative senescence occurs when mortality risk is stable or decreases with age, and has been observed in some wild animals. Age‐independent mortality in animals may lead to an abnormally long maximum individual lifespans and be incompatible with evolutionary theories of senescence. The reason why there is no evidence of senescence in these animals has not been fully understood. Recovery rates are usually very low for wild animals with high dispersal ability and/or small body size (e.g., bats, rodents, and most birds). The only information concerning senescence for most of these species is the reported lifespan when individuals are last seen or caught. We deduced the probability density function of the reported lifespan based on the assumption that the real lifespan corresponding to Weibull or Gompertz distribution. We show that the magnitude of the increase in mortality risk is largely underestimated based on the reported lifespans with low recovery probability. The risk of mortality can aberrantly appear to have a negative correlation with age when it actually increases with increasing lifespan. We demonstrated that the underestimated aging rate for wild animals with low recovery probability can be generalizable to any aging models. Our work provides an explanation for the appearance of negligible senescence in many wild animals. Humans attempt to obtain insights from other creatures to better understand our own biology and its gain insight into how to enhance and extended human health. Our advice is to take a second glance before admiring the negligible senescence in other animals. This ability to escape from senescence is possibly only as beautiful illusion in animals.

A review of spatial capture-recapture: Ecological insights, limitations, and prospects

First described by Efford (2004), spatial capture-recapture (SCR) has become a popular tool in ecology. Like traditional capture-recapture, SCR methods account for imperfect detection when estimating ecological parameters. In addition, SCR methods use the information inherent in the spatial configuration of individual detections, thereby allowing spatially explicit estimation of population parameters, such as abundance, survival, and recruitment. Paired with advances in noninvasive survey methods, SCR has been applied to a wide range of species across different habitats, allowing for population- and landscape-level inferences with direct consequences for conservation and management. I conduct a literature review of SCR studies published since the first description of the method and provide an overview of their scope in terms of the ecological questions answered with this tool, taxonomic groups targeted, geography, spatio-temporal extent of analyses, and data collection methods. In addition, I review approaches for analytical implementation and provide an overview of parameters targeted by SCR studies and conclude with current limitations and future directions in SCR methods.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.

Contrasting associations between nestling telomere length and pre and postnatal helpers' presence in a cooperatively breeding bird

Studies on cooperative breeders have addressed the effects of non-breeding 'helpers' on reproduction and parental care, but the consequences for offspring physiology and long-term survival are less understood. Helpers are expected to benefit offspring, but their presence can also lead to decreased pre- or post-natal parental reproductive effort. To examine whether prenatal and postnatal helpers influence offspring condition, we conducted a whole-clutch cross-fostering experiment in sociable weavers (Philetairus socius) that altered the nestlings' social environment (presence/absence of helpers). We tested whether relative telomere length (rTL), an indicator of somatic maintenance, was influenced by prenatal and/or postnatal presence of helpers 9 and 17 days after hatching, and whether rTL predicted long-term survival. Nine days after hatching, we found an overall positive effect of postnatal helpers on rTL: for nestlings with prenatal helpers, a reduction in the number of helpers post-hatch was associated with shorter telomeres, while nestlings swapped from nests without helpers to nests with helpers had a larger rTL. However, when prenatal helpers were present, an increased number of helpers after hatching led to shorter telomeres. Nine-day old chicks with longer rTL tended to be more likely to survive over the 5 years following hatching. However, close to fledging, there was no detectable effect of the experiment on rTL and no link between rTL and survival. This experimental study of a wild cooperative breeder, therefore, presents partial support for the importance of the presence of helpers for offspring rTL and the link between early-life telomere length and long-term survival.

Positive early-late life-history trait correlations in elephant seals

Correlations between early- and late-life performance are a major prediction of life-history theory. Negative early-late correlations can emerge because biological processes are optimized for early but not late life (e.g., rapid development may accelerate the onset of senescence; "developmental theory of aging") or because allocation to early-life performance comes at a cost in terms of late-life performance (as in the disposable soma theory). But variation in genetic and environmental challenges that each individual has to cope with during early life may also lead to positive early-late life-history trait correlations (the "fixed heterogeneity" or "individual quality" hypothesis). We analyzed individual life-history trajectories of 7,420 known-age female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) monitored over 36 yr to determine how actuarial senescence (a proxy for late-life performance) correlate with age at first reproduction (a proxy for early-life performance). As some breeding events may not be detected in this field study, we used a custom "multievent" hierarchical model to estimate the age at first reproduction and correlate it to other life-history traits. The probability of first reproduction was 0.34 at age 3, with most females breeding for the first time at age 4, and comparatively few at older ages. Females with an early age of first reproduction outperformed delayed breeders in all aspects we considered (survival, rate of senescence, net reproductive output) but one: early breeders appeared to have an onset of actuarial senescence 1 yr earlier compared to late breeders. Genetics and environmental conditions during early life likely explain the positive correlation between early- and late-life performance. Our results provide the first evidence of actuarial senescence in female southern elephant seals.

Assessing the Diversity of the Form of Age-Specific Changes in Adult Mortality from Captive Mammalian Populations

Actuarial senescence (i.e., the age-specific increase in mortality rate) is pervasive across mammalian species, but our current understanding of the diversity of forms that actuarial senescence displays across species remains limited. Although several mathematical models have been proposed to model actuarial senescence, there is still no consensus on which model to use, especially when comparing mortality patterns among species. To fill this knowledge gap, we fitted and compared different forms of increase using models commonly used in senescence studies (i.e., Gompertz, Weibull, and logistic) across 61 species of mammalian captive populations using the Bayesian Survival Trajectory Analysis (BaSTA) approach. For as much as 79% of the species, a Gompertz increase of mortality with age was the most parsimonious model that satisfactorily described the shape of age-specific mortality changes in adults. This highlights that the form of the increase in mortality is mostly consistent across mammalian species and follows the Gompertz rule with some rare exceptions. The implications of that result are twofold. First, the Gompertz rate of mortality increase should be used in cross-species comparative analyses of mammals, as already done in some studies. Second, although the Gompertz model accurately describes actuarial senescence in most mammals, there are notable exceptions, and the factors causing this deviation from an exponential mortality increase during the adult stage warrant further investigation.

Maternal age at birth shapes offspring life-history trajectory across generations in long-lived Asian elephants

Advanced maternal age at birth can have pronounced consequences for offspring health, survival and reproduction. If carried over to the next generation, such fitness effects could have important implications for population dynamics and the evolution of ageing, but these remain poorly understood. While many laboratory studies have investigated maternal age effects, relatively few studies have been conducted in natural populations, and they usually only present a "snapshot" of an offspring's lifetime. In the present study, we focus on how maternal age influences offspring life-history trajectories and performance in a long-lived mammal. We use a multigenerational demographic dataset of semi-captive Asian elephants to investigate maternal age effects on several offspring life-history traits: condition, reproductive success and overall survival. We show that offspring born to older mothers display reduced overall survival but higher reproductive success, and reduced survival of their own progeny. Our results show evidence of a persistent effect of maternal age on fitness across generations in a long-lived mammal. By highlighting transgenerational effects on the fitness of the next generation associated with maternal age, the present study helps increase our understanding of factors contributing to individual variation in ageing rates and fitness.

Disruptive selection of shell colour in land snails: a mark–recapture study of Euhadra peliomphala simodae

Many theoretical studies have suggested that disruptive selection plays an important role in phenotypic divergence, but few studies have determined the action of disruptive selection on phenotypic divergence via field studies. This study investigated the effect of disruptive selection on shell colour polymorphism in the Japanese land snail Euhadra peliomphala simodae to determine whether extreme phenotypes of snail shell colour are favoured over intermediate phenotypes. We conducted field surveys on an oceanic island with black, yellow and intermediate-coloured E. p. simodae snails. We captured and marked ~1800 individual snails and monitored their survival over 18 months. We quantified shell colours against images and examined the frequency distribution of shell colour variation. The variation exhibited a bimodal distribution with a far lower frequency of intermediate-coloured snails than of black or yellow snails. The population sizes of the three snail groups fluctuated synchronously with the changing seasons. Bayesian estimates showed lower survival rates for juvenile intermediate-coloured snails than for juvenile black and yellow snails, implying there was disruptive selection associated with shell colour. We suggest this disruptive selection may have resulted in the evolutionary divergence of the snail’s shell colour within the lineage having high shell colour variation.

Live fast, don't die young: Survival-reproduction trade-offs in long-lived income breeders

Trade-offs between survival and reproduction are at the core of life-history theory, and essential to understanding the evolution of reproductive tactics as well as population dynamics and stability. Factors influencing these trade-offs are multiple and often addressed in isolation. Further problems arise as reproductive states and survival in wild populations are estimated based on imperfect and potentially biased observation processes, which might lead to flawed conclusions. In this study, we aimed at elucidating trade-offs between current reproduction (both pregnancy and lactation), survival and future reproduction, including the specific costs of first reproduction, in long-lived, income breeding small mammals, an under-studied group. We developed a novel statistical framework that encapsulates the breeding life cycle of females, and accounts for incomplete information on female pregnancy and lactation and imperfect and biased recapture rates. We applied this framework to longitudinal data on two sympatric, closely related bat species (Myotis daubentonii and M. nattereri). We revealed the existence of several, to our knowledge previously unknown, trends in survival and breeding of these closely related, sympatric species and detected remarkable differences in their age and costs of first reproduction, as well as their survival-reproduction trade-offs. Our results indicate that species with this type of life history exhibit a mixture of patterns expected for long-lived and short-lived animals, and between income and capital breeders. Thus, we call for more studies to be conducted in similar study systems, increasing our ability to fully understand the evolutionary origin and fitness effects of trade-offs and senescence.

Early and Adult Social Environments Shape Sex-Specific Actuarial Senescence Patterns in a Cooperative Breeder

Sociality modulates life-history traits through changes in resource allocation to fitness-related traits. However, how social factors at different stages of the life cycle modulate senescence remains poorly understood. To address this question, we assessed the influence of social environment in both early life and adulthood on actuarial senescence in the Alpine marmot, a cooperative breeder. The influence of helpers on actuarial senescence strongly differed depending on when help was provided and on the sex of the dominant. Being helped when adult slowed down senescence in both sexes. However, the effect of the presence of helpers during the year of birth of a dominant was sex specific. Among dominants helped during adulthood, females born in the presence of helpers senesced slower, whereas males senesced faster. Among dominants without helpers during adulthood, females with helpers at birth senesced faster. Social environment modulates senescence but acts differently between sexes and life stages.

Migration confers winter survival benefits in a partially migratory songbird

To evolve and to be maintained, seasonal migration, despite its risks, has to yield fitness benefits compared with year-round residency. Empirical data supporting this prediction have remained elusive in the bird literature. To test fitness related benefits of migration, we studied a partial migratory population of European blackbirds (Turdus merula) over 7 years. Using a combination of capture-mark-recapture and radio telemetry, we compared survival probabilities between migrants and residents estimated by multi-event survival models, showing that migrant blackbirds had 16% higher probability to survive the winter compared to residents. A subsequent modelling exercise revealed that residents should have 61.25% higher breeding success than migrants, to outweigh the survival costs of residency. Our results support theoretical models that migration should confer survival benefits to evolve, and thus provide empirical evidence to understand the evolution and maintenance of migration.

Winter is one of the most challenging seasons for many animals. Cold temperatures, bad weather, short days, long nights and a shortage of food can impose a deadly threat. To avoid these inhospitable conditions, some animals migrate to warmer climes during the winter. These animals include many songbirds, which return to the same habitat in the following spring because it offers abundant resources that are thought to help them to breed more successfully. Yet, migration itself can be risky, and there is little empirical data on the survival benefits of migration in songbirds.

Zúñiga et al. tested whether songbirds that migrate are actually more likely to survive the winter than those that do not migrate. The study focused on a population of European blackbirds over a period of seven years. Some of these birds migrated from the breeding grounds in Germany to their wintering sites in southern Europe, whereas others remained all year at the breeding grounds.

Zúñiga et al. found that migrant blackbirds were 16% more likely to survive the winter than the residents. Yet during the summer, there was no difference in survival between the two groups. This raised the question, if migration confers survival benefits, why do some birds do not migrate at all?

Theory predicts that those birds that do not migrate should have some reproductive benefit instead. This makes sense given that birds which remain at the breeding grounds would have access to prime breeding sites which are limited. Using mathematical modelling, Zúñiga et al. estimated how much of reproductive benefits the residents would need to outweigh their greater risk of not surviving the winter. The model predicted that residents should have at least 61.25% higher breeding success than migrants.

The results provide empirical evidence to help scientist understand how migration evolves and becomes maintained in animal population. Future studies are now needed to confirm the estimated breeding success of both groups. Also, because many songbirds are threatened by human activity during migration and at their overwintering sites, future studies to understand how, where and why migratory songbirds die will be important to direct the conservation efforts to protect migratory species.

Assessment of individual and conspecific reproductive success as determinants of breeding dispersal of female tree swallows: A capture-recapture approach

Breeding dispersal is a key process of population structure and dynamics and is often triggered by an individual's breeding failure. In both colonial and territorial birds, reproductive success of conspecifics (RSc) can also lead individuals to change breeding sites after a failure on a site. Yet, few studies have simultaneously investigated the independent contribution of individual reproductive success (RSi) and of RSc on dispersal decision. Here, we develop a modeling framework to disentangle the effects of RSi and RSc on demographic parameters, while accounting for imperfect individual detection and other confounding factors such as age or dispersal behavior in the previous year. Using a 10‐year capture–recapture dataset composed of 1,595 banded tree swallows, we assessed the effects of nonmanipulated RSi and RSc on female breeding dispersal in this semicolonial passerine. Dispersal was strongly driven by RSi, but not by RSc. Unsuccessful females were 9.5–2.5 times more likely to disperse than successful ones, depending if they had dispersed or not in the previous year, respectively. Unsuccessful females were also three times less likely to be detected than successful ones. Contrary to theoretical and empirical studies, RSc did not drive the decision to disperse but influenced the selection of the following breeding site once dispersal had been initiated. Because detection of individuals was driven by RSi, which was positively correlated to RSc, assuming a perfect detection as in previous studies may have lead us to conclude that RSc affected dispersal patterns, yet our approach corrected for this bias. Overall, our results suggest that the value and use of RSc as public information to guide dispersal decisions are likely dictated by multiple ecological determinants, such as landscape structure and extent, if this cue is indeed used.

Group size, survival and surprisingly short lifespan in socially foraging bats

Background

The relationships between group size, survival, and longevity vary greatly among social species. Depending on demographic and ecological circumstances, there are both positive and negative effects of group size variation on individual survival and longevity. For socially foraging species in particular there may be an optimal group size that predicts maximum individual survival that is directly related to the potential for information transfer, social coordination, and costs of conspecific interference. Our aim was to investigate this central aspect of evolutionary ecology by focusing on a socially foraging bat, Molossus molossus. This species optimizes foraging success by eavesdropping on the echolocation calls of group members to locate ephemeral food patches. We expected to find the highest survival and longest lifespans in small groups as a consequence of a trade-off between benefits of information transfer on ephemeral resources and costs of conspecific interference.

Results

In a mark-recapture study of 14 mixed-sex M. molossus social groups in Gamboa, Panama, spanning several years we found the expected relatively small and intermediate, but stable groups, with a mean size of 9.6 ± 6.7 adults and juveniles. We estimated survival proxies using Cox proportional hazard models and multistate-mark recapture models generated with recapture data as well as automated monitoring of roost entrances in a subset of the groups. Median survival of females was very short with 1.8 years and a maximum estimated longevity of 5.6 years. Contrary to our expectations, we found no relationship between variation in group size and survival, a result similar to few other studies.

Conclusions

Strong selection towards small group size may result from psychoacoustic and cognitive constraints related to acoustic interference in social foraging and the complexity of coordinated flight. The short lifespans were unexpected and may result from life at the energetic edge due to a highly specialized diet. The absence of a relationship between group size and survival may reflect a similar but optimized survival within the selected range of group sizes. We expect the pattern of small group sizes will be consistent in future research on species dependent on social information transfer about ephemeral resources.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12898-016-0056-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Breeding Bird Community Continues to Colonize Riparian Buffers Ten Years after Harvest

Riparian ecosystems integrate aquatic and terrestrial communities and often contain unique assemblages of flora and fauna. Retention of forested buffers along riparian habitats is a commonly employed practice to reduce potential negative effects of land use on aquatic systems. However, very few studies have examined long-term population and community responses to buffers, leading to considerable uncertainty about effectiveness of this practice for achieving conservation and management outcomes. We examined short- (1-2 years) and long-term (~10 years) avian community responses (occupancy and abundance) to riparian buffer prescriptions to clearcut logging silvicultural practices in the Pacific Northwest USA. We used a Before-After-Control-Impact experimental approach and temporally replicated point counts analyzed within a Bayesian framework. Our experimental design consisted of forested control sites with no harvest, sites with relatively narrow (~13 m) forested buffers on each side of the stream, and sites with wider (~30 m) and more variable width unharvested buffer. Buffer treatments exhibited a 31-44% increase in mean species richness in the post-harvest years, a pattern most evident 10 years post-harvest. Post-harvest, species turnover was much higher on both treatments (63-74%) relative to the controls (29%). We did not find evidence of local extinction for any species but found strong evidence (no overlap in 95% credible intervals) for an increase in site occupancy on both Narrow (short-term: 7%; long-term 29%) and Wide buffers (short-term: 21%; long-term 93%) relative to controls after harvest. We did not find a treatment effect on total avian abundance. When assessing relationships between buffer width and site level abundance of four riparian specialists, we did not find strong evidence of reduced abundance in Narrow or Wide buffers. Silviculture regulations in this region dictate average buffer widths on small and large permanent streams that range from ~22-25 m. Guidelines for this region are within the range of buffers included in our study, in which we observed no evidence for avian species loss or for a decline in species abundance (including riparian associated species).

Adult survival selection in relation to multilocus heterozygosity and body size in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita

Both phenotypic and genetic quality can influence the survival of individuals through time, although their relative influences are rarely addressed simultaneously. Here we used capture-mark-recapture modelling to assess the influence of both multilocus heterozygosity (MLH) and body size on apparent adult survival in a tropical bird species, the Zenaida dove, Zenaida aurita, using a sample of 391 individuals genotyped at 11 microsatellites, while controlling for the effects of sex. No effect of body size on either adult survival or capture rate was found. In the best model, survival was a logit linear function of MLH, whereas detection probability was a sex-dependent logit linear function of the logarithm of field effort, increasing with time and affected by a random individual effect. Using a Bayesian approach, we found that MLH explained 1.14% of the total deviance, as expected from theory and previous studies of heterozygosity-fitness correlations, with no evidence for local effects. However, results from capture-mark-recapture modelling indicated that expected longevity varied from 4.8 years in the least heterozygous individuals (MLH = 0.37) to 10.6 years in the most heterozygous ones (MLH = 1), thus suggesting that MLH had potentially a substantial effect on survival. We discuss our results in relation to current hypotheses about the origin of heterozygosity-fitness correlations.

Disruptive viability selection on a black plumage trait associated with dominance

Traits used in communication, such as colour signals, are expected to have positive consequences for reproductive success, but their associations with survival are little understood. Previous studies have mainly investigated linear relationships between signals and survival, but both hump-shaped and U-shaped relationships can also be predicted, depending on the main costs involved in trait expression. Furthermore, few studies have taken the plasticity of signals into account in viability selection analyses. The relationship between signal expression and survival is of particular interest in melanin-based traits, because their main costs are still debated. Here, we first determined the main factors explaining variability in a melanin-based trait linked to dominance: the bib size of a colonial bird, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius. We then used these analyses to obtain a measure representative of the individual mean expression of bib size. Finally, we used capture-recapture models to study how survival varied in relation to bib size. Variation in bib size was strongly affected by year and moderately affected by age, body condition and colony size. In addition, individuals bearing small and large bibs had higher survival than those with intermediate bibs, and this U-shaped relationship between survival and bib size appeared to be more pronounced in some years than others. These results constitute a rare example of disruptive viability selection, and point towards the potential importance of social costs incurred by the dominance signalling function of badges of status.

Antagonistic effect of helpers on breeding male and female survival in a cooperatively breeding bird

1. Cooperatively breeding species are typically long lived and hence, according to theory, are expected to maximize their lifetime reproductive success through maximizing survival. Under these circumstances, the presence of helpers could be used to lighten the effort of current reproduction for parents to achieve higher survival. 2. In addition, individuals of different sexes and ages may follow different strategies, but whether male and female breeders and individuals of different ages benefit differently from the presence of helpers has often been overlooked. Moreover, only one study that investigated the relationship between parental survival and the presence of helpers used capture-mark-recapture analyses (CMR). These methods are important since they allow us to account for the non-detection of individuals that are alive in the population but not detected, and thus, the effects on survival and recapture probability to be disentangled. 3. Here, we used multi-event CMR methods to investigate whether the number of helpers was associated with an increase in survival probability for male and female breeders of different ages in the sociable weaver Philetairus socius. In this species, both sexes reduce their feeding rate in the presence of helpers. We therefore predicted that the presence of helpers should increase the breeders' survival in both sexes, especially early in life when individuals potentially have more future breeding opportunities. In addition, sociable weaver females reduce their investment in eggs in the presence of helpers, so we predicted a stronger effect of helpers on female than male survival. 4. As expected we found that females had a higher survival probability when breeding with more helpers. Unexpectedly, however, male survival probability decreased with increasing number of helpers. This antagonistic effect diminished as the breeders grew older. 5. These results illustrate the complexity of fitness costs and benefits underlying cooperative behaviours and how these may vary with the individuals' sex and age. They also highlight the need for further studies on the sex-specific effects of helpers on survival.

Quantifying the influence of measured and unmeasured individual differences on demography

1. Demographic rates can vary not only with measured individual characters like age, sex and mass but also with unmeasured individual variables like behaviour, genes and health. 2. Predictions from population models that include measured individual characteristics often differ from models that exclude them. Similarly, unmeasured individual differences have the potential to impact predictions from population models. However, unmeasured individual differences are rarely included in population models. 3. We construct stage- and age-structured models (where stage is mass) of a roe deer population, which are parameterized from statistical functions that either include, or ignore, unmeasured individual differences. 4. We found that mass and age structures substantially impacted model parameters describing population dynamics, as did temporal environmental variation, while unmeasured individual differences impacted parameters describing population dynamics to a much smaller extent once individual heterogeneity related to mass and age has been included in the model. We discuss how our assumptions (unmeasured individual differences only in mean trait values) could have influenced our findings and under what circumstances unmeasured individual differences could have had a larger impact on population dynamics. 5. There are two reasons explaining the relative small influence of unmeasured individual differences on population dynamics in roe deer. First, individual body mass and age both capture a large amount of individual differences in roe deer. Second, in large populations of long-lived animals, the average quality of individuals (independent of age and mass) within the population is unlikely to show substantial variation over time, unless rapid evolution is occurring. So even though a population consisting of high-quality individuals would have much higher population growth rate than a population consisting of low-quality individuals, the probability of observing a population consisting only of high-quality individuals is small.

Who escapes detection? Quantifying the causes and consequences of sampling biases in a long-term field study

Inferences drawn from long-term field studies are vulnerable to biases in observability of different classes of individuals, which may lead to biases in the estimates of selection, or fitness. Population surveys that monitor breeding individuals can introduce such biases by not identifying individuals that fail early in their reproductive attempts. Here, we quantify how the standard protocol for detecting breeding females introduces bias in a long-term population study of the great tit, Parus major. We do so by identifying females whose breeding attempts fail before they would normally be censused and explore whether this early failure can be predicted by a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. We investigate the effect of these biases on estimates of reproductive performance and selection. We show that females that go undetected by standard censusing because they fail early in their breeding attempt were less likely to have been previously trapped within our study site and were more likely to breed in poor-quality habitats. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this bias sampling had lead previous studies on this population to overestimate the reproductive performance of unringed females, which are likely to be immigrants to the population. Finally, we show that these biases in detectability influence estimates of selection on a key life-history trait. While these conclusions are specific to this study, we suggest that such effects are likely to be widespread and that more attention should be given to whether or not methods for surveying natural populations introduce systematic bias that will influence conclusions about ecological and evolutionary processes.

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual's lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture-recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.

Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review

Detection in studies of species abundance and distribution is often imperfect. Assuming perfect detection introduces bias into estimation that can weaken inference upon which understanding and policy are based. Despite availability of numerous methods designed to address this assumption, many refereed papers in ecology fail to account for non-detection error. We conducted a quantitative literature review of 537 ecological articles to measure the degree to which studies of different taxa, at various scales, and over time have accounted for imperfect detection. Overall, just 23% of articles accounted for imperfect detection. The probability that an article incorporated imperfect detection increased with time and varied among taxa studied; studies of vertebrates were more likely to incorporate imperfect detection. Among articles that reported detection probability, 70% contained per-survey estimates of detection that were less than 0.5. For articles in which constancy of detection was tested, 86% reported significant variation. We hope that our findings prompt more ecologists to consider carefully the detection process when designing studies and analyzing results, especially for sub-disciplines where incorporation of imperfect detection in study design and analysis so far has been lacking.

Selection based on the size of the black tie of the great tit may be reversed in urban habitats

A standard approach to model how selection shapes phenotypic traits is the analysis of capture–recapture data relating trait variation to survival. Divergent selection, however, has never been analyzed by the capture–recapture approach. Most reported examples of differences between urban and nonurban animals reflect behavioral plasticity rather than divergent selection. The aim of this paper was to use a capture–recapture approach to test the hypothesis that divergent selection can also drive local adaptation in urban habitats. We focused on the size of the black breast stripe (i.e., tie width) of the great tit (Parus major), a sexual ornament used in mate choice. Urban great tits display smaller tie sizes than forest birds. Because tie size is mostly genetically determined, it could potentially respond to selection. We analyzed capture/recapture data of male great tits in Barcelona city (N = 171) and in a nearby (7 km) forest (N = 324) from 1992 to 2008 using MARK. When modelling recapture rate, we found it to be strongly influenced by tie width, so that both for urban and forest habitats, birds with smaller ties were more trap-shy and more cautious than their larger tied counterparts. When modelling survival, we found that survival prospects in forest great tits increased the larger their tie width (i.e., directional positive selection), but the reverse was found for urban birds, with individuals displaying smaller ties showing higher survival (i.e., directional negative selection). As melanin-based tie size seems to be related to personality, and both are heritable, results may be explained by cautious personalities being favored in urban environments. More importantly, our results show that divergent selection can be an important mechanism in local adaptation to urban habitats and that capture–recapture is a powerful tool to test it.

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.

Revisiting the effect of capture heterogeneity on survival estimates in capture-mark-recapture studies: does it matter?

Recently developed capture-mark-recapture methods allow us to account for capture heterogeneity among individuals in the form of discrete mixtures and continuous individual random effects. In this article, we used simulations and two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of continuously distributed individual random effects at removing potential bias due to capture heterogeneity, and to evaluate in what situation the added complexity of these models is justified. Simulations and case studies showed that ignoring individual capture heterogeneity generally led to a small negative bias in survival estimates and that individual random effects effectively removed this bias. As expected, accounting for capture heterogeneity also led to slightly less precise survival estimates. Our case studies also showed that accounting for capture heterogeneity increased in importance towards the end of study. Though ignoring capture heterogeneity led to a small bias in survival estimates, such bias may greatly impact management decisions. We advocate reducing potential heterogeneity at the sampling design stage. Where this is insufficient, we recommend modelling individual capture heterogeneity in situations such as when a large proportion of the individuals has a low detection probability (e.g. in the presence of floaters) and situations where the most recent survival estimates are of great interest (e.g. in applied conservation).

Recapture heterogeneity in cliff swallows: increased exposure to mist nets leads to net avoidance

Ecologists often use mark-recapture to estimate demographic variables such as abundance, growth rate, or survival for samples of wild animal populations. A common assumption underlying mark-recapture is that all animals have an equal probability of detection, and failure to meet or correct for this assumption-as when certain members of the population are either easier or more difficult to capture than other animals-can lead to biased and inaccurate demographic estimates. We built within-year and among-years Cormack-Jolly-Seber recaptures-only models to identify causes of capture heterogeneity for a population of colonially nesting cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) caught using mist-netting as a part of a 20-year mark-recapture study in southwestern Nebraska, U.S.A. Daily detection of cliff swallows caught in stationary mist nets at their colony sites declined as the birds got older and as the frequency of netting at a site within a season increased. Experienced birds' avoidance of the net could be countered by sudden disturbances that startled them into a net, such as when we dropped a net over the side of a bridge or flushed nesting cliff swallows into a stationary net positioned at a colony entrance. Our results support the widely held, but seldom tested, belief that birds learn to avoid stationary mist nets over time, but also show that modifications of traditional field methods can reduce this source of recapture heterogeneity.

Senescence in natural populations of animals: widespread evidence and its implications for bio-gerontology

That senescence is rarely, if ever, observed in natural populations is an oft-quoted fallacy within bio-gerontology. We identify the roots of this fallacy in the otherwise seminal works of Medawar and Comfort, and explain that under antagonistic pleiotropy or disposable soma explanations for the evolution of senescence there is no reason why senescence cannot evolve to be manifest within the life expectancies of wild organisms. The recent emergence of long-term field studies presents irrefutable evidence that senescence is commonly detected in nature. We found such evidence in 175 different animal species from 340 separate studies. Although the bulk of this evidence comes from birds and mammals, we also found evidence for senescence in other vertebrates and insects. We describe how high-quality longitudinal field data allow us to test evolutionary explanations for differences in senescence between the sexes and among traits and individuals. Recent studies indicate that genes, prior environment and investment in growth and reproduction influence aging rates in the wild. We argue that - with the fallacy that wild animals do not senesce finally dead and buried - collaborations between bio-gerontologists and field biologists can begin to test the ecological generality of purportedly 'public' mechanisms regulating aging in laboratory models.

Digging through model complexity: using hierarchical models to uncover evolutionary processes in the wild

The growing interest for studying questions in the wild requires acknowledging that eco-evolutionary processes are complex, hierarchically structured and often partially observed or with measurement error. These issues have long been ignored in evolutionary biology, which might have led to flawed inference when addressing evolutionary questions. Hierarchical modelling (HM) has been proposed as a generic statistical framework to deal with complexity in ecological data and account for uncertainty. However, to date, HM has seldom been used to investigate evolutionary mechanisms possibly underlying observed patterns. Here, we contend the HM approach offers a relevant approach for the study of eco-evolutionary processes in the wild by confronting formal theories to empirical data through proper statistical inference. Studying eco-evolutionary processes requires considering the complete and often complex life histories of organisms. We show how this can be achieved by combining sequentially all life-history components and all available sources of information through HM. We demonstrate how eco-evolutionary processes may be poorly inferred or even missed without using the full potential of HM. As a case study, we use the Atlantic salmon and data on wild marked juveniles. We assess a reaction norm for migration and two potential trade-offs for survival. Overall, HM has a great potential to address evolutionary questions and investigate important processes that could not previously be assessed in laboratory or short time-scale studies.

Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling

Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, 'hidden' trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.