A simulation model of glucose regulation in the critically ill

In Silico Investigation of the Clinical Translatability of Competitive Clearance Glucose-Responsive Insulins

The glucose-responsive insulin (GRI) MK-2640 from Merck was a pioneer in its class to enter the clinical stage, having demonstrated promising responsiveness in in vitro and preclinical studies via a novel competitive clearance mechanism (CCM). The smaller pharmacokinetic response in humans motivates the development of new predictive, computational tools that can improve the design of therapeutics such as GRIs. Herein, we develop and use a new computational model, IM3PACT, based on the intersection of human and animal model glucoregulatory systems, to investigate the clinical translatability of CCM GRIs based on existing preclinical and clinical data of MK-2640 and regular human insulin (RHI). Simulated multi-glycemic clamps not only validated the earlier hypothesis of insufficient glucose-responsive clearance capacity in humans but also uncovered an equally important mismatch between the in vivo competitiveness profile and the physiological glycemic range, which was not observed in animals. Removing the inter-species gap increases the glucose-dependent GRI clearance from 13.0% to beyond 20% for humans and up to 33.3% when both factors were corrected. The intrinsic clearance rate, potency, and distribution volume did not apparently compromise the translation. The analysis also confirms a responsive pharmacokinetics local to the liver. By scanning a large design space for CCM GRIs, we found that the mannose receptor physiology in humans remains limiting even for the most optimally designed candidate. Overall, we show that this computational approach is able to extract quantitative and mechanistic information of value from a posteriori analysis of preclinical and clinical data to assist future therapeutic discovery and development.

A simple modeling framework for prediction in the human glucose-insulin system

Forecasting blood glucose (BG) levels with routinely collected data is useful for glycemic management. BG dynamics are nonlinear, complex, and nonstationary, which can be represented by nonlinear models. However, the sparsity of routinely collected data creates parameter identifiability issues when high-fidelity complex models are used, thereby resulting in inaccurate forecasts. One can use models with reduced physiological fidelity for robust and accurate parameter estimation and forecasting with sparse data. For this purpose, we approximate the nonlinear dynamics of BG regulation by a linear stochastic differential equation: we develop a linear stochastic model, which can be specialized to different settings: type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and intensive care unit (ICU), with different choices of appropriate model functions. The model includes deterministic terms quantifying glucose removal from the bloodstream through the glycemic regulation system and representing the effect of nutrition and externally delivered insulin. The stochastic term encapsulates the BG oscillations. The model output is in the form of an expected value accompanied by a band around this value. The model parameters are estimated patient-specifically, leading to personalized models. The forecasts consist of values for BG mean and variation, quantifying possible high and low BG levels. Such predictions have potential use for glycemic management as part of control systems. We present experimental results on parameter estimation and forecasting in T2DM and ICU settings. We compare the model's predictive capability with two different nonlinear models built for T2DM and ICU contexts to have a sense of the level of prediction achieved by this model.

A physical activity-intensity driven glycemic model for type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The glucose response to physical activity for a person with type 1 diabetes (T1D) depends upon the intensity and duration of the physical activity, plasma insulin concentrations, and the individual physical fitness level. To accurately model the glycemic response to physical activity, these factors must be considered.

METHODS

Several physiological models describing the glycemic response to physical activity are proposed by incorporating model terms proportional to the physical activity intensity and duration describing endogenous glucose production (EGP), glucose utilization, and glucose transfer from the plasma to tissues. Leveraging clinical data of T1D during physical activity, each model fit is assessed.

RESULTS

The proposed model with terms accommodating EGP, glucose transfer, and insulin-independent glucose utilization allow for an improved simulation of physical activity glycemic responses with the greatest reduction in model error (mean absolute percentage error: 16.11 ± 4.82 vs. 19.49 ± 5.87, p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The development of a physiologically plausible model with model terms representing each major contributor to glucose metabolism during physical activity can outperform traditional models with physical activity described through glucose utilization alone. This model accurately describes the relation of plasma insulin and physical activity intensity on glucose production and glucose utilization to generate the appropriately increasing, decreasing or stable glucose response for each physical activity condition. The proposed model will enable the in silico evaluation of automated insulin dosing algorithms designed to mitigate the effects of physical activity with the appropriate relationship between the reduction in basal insulin and the corresponding glycemic excursion.

A PRACTICAL NONINVASIVE BLOOD GLUCOSE MEASUREMENT SYSTEM USING NEAR-INFRARED SENSORS

Due to the drastic fluctuation of glucose level in diabetic patients throughout a day, especially when they take a sweet breakfast, and greasy lunch and dinner, their insulin must be promptly measured invasively after each meal. However, invasive measurement of the blood glucose level (BGL) is painful and might lead to infection. In this paper, we design a hardware–software system for estimating BGL in a real-time manner, according to the amount of near-infrared (NIR) absorption at 950 nm. The received light wave is amplified and passed through a low-pass filter (LPF) to eliminate the irrelevant frequency components. We have executed our experiment according to three scenarios: (i) Certain amount of glucose is dissolved in water and the glucose concentration is measured by our equipment, (ii) 5-cm3 blood sample of participants is taken and the BGL is measured in a test tube by our apparatus and then this sample is moved to the gold-standard equipment and the actual value of BGL is measured. The measured voltage versus BGL in our designed optical equipment indicates a fairly linear relation between them. (iii) BGL is measured over the fingertip and compared to the gold-standard value. In this case, the measurement error does not exceed 25% and the voltage change with respect to the BGL shows a nonlinear behavior. The designed system has a low cost and provides an acceptable error, making it suitable to be commercialized for diabetic patients.

Estimating Increased EGP During Stress Response in Critically Ill Patients

BACKGROUND

Stress-induced hyperglycemia is frequently experienced by critically ill patients and the use of glycemic control (GC) has been shown to improve patient outcomes. For model-based approaches to GC, it is important to understand and quantify model parameter assumptions. This study explores endogenous glucose production (EGP) and the use of a population-based parameter value in the intensive care unit context.

METHOD

Hourly insulin sensitivity (SI) was fit to clinical data from 145 patients on the Specialized Relative Insulin and Nutrition Titration GC protocol for at least 24 hours. Constraint of SI at a lower bound was used to explore likely EGP variability due to stress response. Minimum EGP was estimated during times when the model SI was constrained, and time and duration of events were examined.

RESULTS

Constrained events occur for 1.6% of patient hours. About 70% of constrained events occur in the first 12 hours and most events (~80%) occur when there is no exogenous nutrition given. Enhanced EGP values ranged from 1.16 mmol/min (current population value) to 2.75 mmol/min, with most being below 1.5 mmol/min (21% increase).

CONCLUSION

The frequency of constrained events is low and the current population value of 1.16 mmol/min is sufficient for more than 98% of patient hours, however, some patients experience significantly raised EGP probably due to an extreme stress response early in patient stay.

Incorporating real-world evidence into the development of patient blood glucose prediction algorithms for the ICU

Objective

Glycemic control is an important component of critical care. We present a data-driven method for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) patient response to glycemic control protocols while accounting for patient heterogeneity and variations in care.

Materials and Methods

Using electronic medical records (EMRs) of 18 961 ICU admissions from the MIMIC-III dataset, including 318 574 blood glucose measurements, we train and validate a gradient boosted tree machine learning (ML) algorithm to forecast patient blood glucose and a 95% prediction interval at 2-hour intervals. The model uses as inputs irregular multivariate time series data relating to recent in-patient medical history and glycemic control, including previous blood glucose, nutrition, and insulin dosing.

Results

Our forecasting model using routinely collected EMRs achieves performance comparable to previous models developed in planned research studies using continuous blood glucose monitoring. Model error, expressed as mean absolute percentage error is 16.5%–16.8%, with Clarke error grid analysis demonstrating that 97% of predictions would be clinically acceptable. The 95% prediction intervals achieve near intended coverage at 93%–94%.

Discussion

ML algorithms built on observational data sources, such as EMRs, present a promising approach for personalization and automation of glycemic control in critical care. Future research may benefit from applying a combination of methodologies and data sources to develop robust methodologies that account for the variations seen in ICU patients and difficultly in detecting the extremes of observed blood glucose values.

Conclusion

We demonstrate that EMRs can be used to train ML algorithms that may be suitable for incorporation into ICU decision support systems.

Development platform for artificial pancreas algorithms

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Assessing algorithms of artificial pancreas systems is critical in developing automated and fault-tolerant solutions that work outside clinical settings. The development and evaluation of algorithms can be facilitated with a platform that conducts virtual clinical trials. We present in this paper a clinically validated cloud-based distributed platform that supports the development and comprehensive testing of single and dual-hormone algorithms for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).

METHODS

The platform is built on principles of object-oriented design and runs user algorithms in real-time virtual clinical trials utilizing a multi-threaded environment enabled by concurrent execution over a cloud infrastructure. The platform architecture isolates user algorithms located on personal machines from proprietary patient data running on the cloud. Users import a plugin into their algorithms (Matlab, Python, or Java) to connect to the platform. Once connected, users interact with a graphical interface to design experimental protocols for their trials. Protocols include trial duration in days, mealtimes and amounts, variability in mealtimes and amounts, carbohydrate counting errors, snacks, and onboard insulin levels.

RESULTS

The platform facilitates development by solving the ODE model in the cloud on large CPU-optimized machines, providing a 62% improvement in memory, speed and CPU utilization. Users can easily debug & modify code, test multiple strategies, and generate detailed clinical performance reports. We validated and integrated into the platform a glucoregulatory system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) parameterized with clinical data to mimic the inter and intra-day variability of glucose responses of 15 T1DM patients.

CONCLUSION

The platform utilizes the validated patient model to conduct virtual clinical trials for the rapid development and testing of closed-loop algorithms for T1DM.

Mathematical Modeling for the Physiological and Clinical Investigation of Glucose Homeostasis and Diabetes

Mathematical modeling in the field of glucose metabolism has a longstanding tradition. The use of models is motivated by several reasons. Models have been used for calculating parameters of physiological interest from experimental data indirectly, to provide an unambiguous quantitative representation of pathophysiological mechanisms, to determine indices of clinical usefulness from simple experimental tests. With the growing societal impact of type 2 diabetes, which involves the disturbance of the glucose homeostasis system, development and use of models in this area have increased. Following the approaches of physiological and clinical investigation, the focus of the models has spanned from representations of whole body processes to those of cells, i.e., from in vivo to in vitro research. Model-based approaches for linking in vivo to in vitro research have been proposed, as well as multiscale models merging the two areas. The success and impact of models has been variable. Two kinds of models have received remarkable interest: those widely used in clinical applications, e.g., for the assessment of insulin sensitivity and β-cell function and some models representing specific aspects of the glucose homeostasis system, which have become iconic for their efficacy in describing clearly and compactly key physiological processes, such as insulin secretion from the pancreatic β cells. Models are inevitably simplified and approximate representations of a physiological system. Key to their success is an appropriate balance between adherence to reality, comprehensibility, interpretative value and practical usefulness. This has been achieved with a variety of approaches. Although many models concerning the glucose homeostasis system have been proposed, research in this area still needs to address numerous issues and tackle new opportunities. The mathematical representation of the glucose homeostasis processes is only partial, also because some mechanisms are still only partially understood. For in vitro research, mathematical models still need to develop their potential. This review illustrates the problems, approaches and contribution of mathematical modeling to the physiological and clinical investigation of glucose homeostasis and diabetes, focusing on the most relevant and stimulating models.

Connecting Rodent and Human Pharmacokinetic Models for the Design and Translation of Glucose-Responsive Insulin

Despite considerable progress, development of glucose-responsive insulins (GRIs) still largely depends on empirical knowledge and tedious experimentation-especially on rodents. To assist the rational design and clinical translation of the therapeutic, we present a Pharmacokinetic Algorithm Mapping GRI Efficacies in Rodents and Humans (PAMERAH) built upon our previous human model. PAMERAH constitutes a framework for predicting the therapeutic efficacy of a GRI candidate from its user-specified mechanism of action, kinetics, and dosage, which we show is accurate when checked against data from experiments and literature. Results from simulated glucose clamps also agree quantitatively with recent GRI publications. We demonstrate that the model can be used to explore the vast number of permutations constituting the GRI parameter space and thereby identify the optimal design ranges that yield desired performance. A design guide aside, PAMERAH more importantly can facilitate GRI's clinical translation by connecting each candidate's efficacies in rats, mice, and humans. The resultant mapping helps to find GRIs that appear promising in rodents but underperform in humans (i.e., false positives). Conversely, it also allows for the discovery of optimal human GRI dynamics not captured by experiments on a rodent population (false negatives). We condense such information onto a "translatability grid" as a straightforward, visual guide for GRI development.

Interpretation of Retrospective BG Measurements

BACKGROUND

This study investigates blood glucose (BG) measurement interpolation techniques to represent intermediate BG dynamics, and the effect resampling of retrospective BG data has on key glycemic control (GC) performance results. GC protocols in the ICU have varying BG measurement intervals ranging from 0.5 to 4 hours. Sparse data pose problems, particularly in comparing GC performance or model fitting, and thus interpolation is required.

METHODS

Retrospective data from SPRINT in Christchurch Hospital Intensive Care Unit (ICU) (2005-2007) were used to analyze several interpolation techniques. Piecewise linear, spline, and cubic interpolation functions, which force interpolation through measured data, as well as 1st and 2nd Order B-spline basis functions, are used to identify the interpolated trace. Dense data were thinned to increase sparsity and obtain measurements (Hidden Measurements) for comparison after interpolation. Performance is assessed based on error in capturing hidden measurements. Finally, the effect of minutely versus hourly sampling of the interpolated trace on key GC performance statistics was investigated using retrospective data received from STAR GC in Christchurch Hospital ICU, New Zealand (2011-2015).

RESULTS

All of the piecewise functions performed considerably better than the fitted interpolation functions. Linear piecewise interpolation performed the best having a mean RMSE 0.39 mmol/L, within 2 standard deviations of the BG sensor error. Minutely sampled BG resulted in significantly different key GC performance values when compared to raw sparse BG measurements.

CONCLUSION

Linear piecewise interpolation provides the best estimate of intermediate BG dynamics and all analyses comparing GC protocol performance should use minutely linearly interpolated BG data.

Improving glycemic control in critically ill patients: personalized care to mimic the endocrine pancreas

There is considerable physiological and clinical evidence of harm and increased risk of death associated with dysglycemia in critical care. However, glycemic control (GC) currently leads to increased hypoglycemia, independently associated with a greater risk of death. Indeed, recent evidence suggests GC is difficult to safely and effectively achieve for all patients. In this review, leading experts in the field discuss this evidence and relevant data in diabetology, including the artificial pancreas, and suggest how safe, effective GC can be achieved in critically ill patients in ways seeking to mimic normal islet cell function. The review is structured around the specific clinical hurdles of: understanding the patient’s metabolic state; designing GC to fit clinical practice, safety, efficacy, and workload; and the need for standardized metrics. These aspects are addressed by reviewing relevant recent advances in science and technology. Finally, we provide a set of concise recommendations to advance the safety, quality, consistency, and clinical uptake of GC in critical care. This review thus presents a roadmap toward better, more personalized metabolic care and improved patient outcomes.

Next-generation, personalised, model-based critical care medicine: a state-of-the art review of in silico virtual patient models, methods, and cohorts, and how to validation them

Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current "one size fits all" protocolised care to adaptive, model-based "one method fits all" personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care.

Autoregressive Modeling of Drift and Random Error to Characterize a Continuous Intravascular Glucose Monitoring Sensor

BACKGROUND

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices have been effective in managing diabetes and offer potential benefits for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). Use of CGM devices in the ICU has been limited, primarily due to the higher point accuracy errors over currently used traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures. General models of CGM errors, including drift and random errors, are lacking, but would enable better design of protocols to utilize these devices. This article presents an autoregressive (AR) based modeling method that separately characterizes the drift and random noise of the GlySure CGM sensor (GlySure Limited, Oxfordshire, UK).

METHODS

Clinical sensor data (n = 33) and reference measurements were used to generate 2 AR models to describe sensor drift and noise. These models were used to generate 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on reference blood glucose measurements. These were then compared to the original CGM clinical data using mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and a Trend Compass.

RESULTS

The point accuracy MARD was very similar between simulated and clinical data (9.6% vs 9.9%). A Trend Compass was used to assess trend accuracy, and found simulated and clinical sensor profiles were similar (simulated trend index 11.4° vs clinical trend index 10.9°).

CONCLUSION

The model and method accurately represents cohort sensor behavior over patients, providing a general modeling approach to any such sensor by separately characterizing each type of error that can arise in the data. Overall, it enables better protocol design based on accurate expected CGM sensor behavior, as well as enabling the analysis of what level of each type of sensor error would be necessary to obtain desired glycemic control safety and performance with a given protocol.

Continuous Glucose Monitoring Measures Can Be Used for Glycemic Control in the ICU: An In-Silico Study

BACKGROUND

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology has become more prevalent in the intensive care unit (ICU), offering potential benefits of increased safety and reduced workload in glycemic control (GC). The drift and higher point accuracy errors of CGM devices over traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures have so far limited their application in the ICU. This study delineates the trade-offs of performance, safety and workload that CGM sensors provide in GC protocols.

METHODS

Clinical data from 236 patients were used for clinically validated virtual trials. A CGM-enabled version of the STAR GC protocol was used to evaluate the use of guard rails and rolling windows. Safety was assessed through percentage of patients who had a severe hypoglycemic episode (BG < 40 mg/dl) as well as percentage of resampled BG < 72 mg/dl. Performance was assessed as percentage of resampled measurements in the 80-126 mg/dl and the 80-144 mg/dl target bands. Workload was measured by number of manual BG measures per day.

RESULTS

CGM-enabled versions of STAR decreased the number of required blood draws by up to 74%, while maintaining performance (76.6% BG measurements in the 80-126 mg/dl range vs 62.8% clinically, 87.9% in the 80-144 mg/dl range vs 83.7% clinically) and maintaining patient safety (1.13% of patients experienced a severe hypoglycemic event vs 0.85% clinically, 1.37% of BG measurements were less than 72 mg/dl vs 0.51% clinically).

CONCLUSION

CGM sensor traces were reproduced in virtual trials to guide GC. Existing GC protocols such as STAR may need to be adjusted only slightly to gain the benefits of the increased temporal measurements of CGM sensors, through which workload may be significantly decreased while maintaining GC performance and safety.

Nonlinear model predictive glycemic control of critically ill patients using online identification of insulin sensitivity

In critically ill patients suffering from hyperglycemia, it has been recently shown that mortality and morbidity can be reduced by keeping blood glucose within the range of 80-110 mg/dL. However, maintaining glycemia within such range is difficult due to the time variability in insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients. In this paper, we propose a novel glycometabolism model of critically ill patients with an insulin sensitivity parameter and develop a nonlinear model predictive glycemic control system with online identification of insulin sensitivity at one-hour intervals. Simulation results show that our system keeps 70% of BG measurements within the range of 80-110 mg/dL without any severe hypoglycemic incidents, which indicates the effectiveness and safety of our system.

In-Silico Trials for Glucose Control in Hospitalized Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

Although various basal-bolus insulin therapy (BBIT) protocols have been used in the clinical environment, safer and more effective BBIT protocols are required for glucose control in hospitalized patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Modeling approaches could provide an evaluation environment for developing the optimal BBIT protocol prior to clinical trials at low cost and without risk of danger. In this study, an in-silico model was proposed to evaluate subcutaneous BBIT protocols in hospitalized patients with T2D. The proposed model was validated by comparing the BBIT protocol and sliding-scale insulin therapy (SSIT) protocol. The model was utilized for in-silico trials to compare the protocols of adjusting basal-insulin dose (BBIT1) versus adjusting total-daily-insulin dose (BBIT2). The model was also used to evaluate two different initial total-daily-insulin doses for various levels of renal function. The BBIT outcomes were superior to those of SSIT, which is consistent with earlier studies. BBIT2 also outperformed BBIT1, producing a decreased daily mean glucose level and longer time-in-target-range. Moreover, with a standard dose, the overall daily mean glucose levels reached the target range faster than with a reduced-dose for all degrees of renal function. The in-silico studies demonstrated several significant findings, including that the adjustment of total-daily-insulin dose is more effective than changes to basal-insulin dose alone. This research represents a first step toward the eventual development of an advanced model for evaluating various BBIT protocols.

A Computational Method to Determine Glucose Infusion Rates for Isoglycemic Intravenous Glucose Infusion Study

The results of the isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion (IIGI) study need to mimic the dynamic glucose profiles during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to accurately calculate the incretin effect. The glucose infusion rates during IIGI studies have historically been determined by experienced research personnel using the manual ad-hoc method. In this study, a computational method was developed to automatically determine the infusion rates for IIGI study based on a glucose-dynamics model. To evaluate the computational method, 18 subjects with normal glucose tolerance underwent a 75 g OGTT. One-week later, Group 1 (n = 9) and Group 2 (n = 9) underwent IIGI studies using the ad-hoc method and the computational method, respectively. Both methods were evaluated using correlation coefficient, mean absolute relative difference (MARD), and root mean square error (RMSE) between the glucose profiles from the OGTT and the IIGI study. The computational method exhibited significantly higher correlation (0.95 ± 0.03 versus 0.86 ± 0.10, P = 0.019), lower MARD (8.72 ± 1.83% versus 13.11 ± 3.66%, P = 0.002), and lower RMSE (10.33 ± 1.99 mg/dL versus 16.84 ± 4.43 mg/dL, P = 0.002) than the ad-hoc method. The computational method can facilitate IIGI study, and enhance its accuracy and stability. Using this computational method, a high-quality IIGI study can be accomplished without the need for experienced personnel.

Population-Specific Models of Glycemic Control in Intensive Care: Towards a Simulation-Based Methodology for Protocol Optimization

Stress-induced hyperglycemia is common in critically ill patients, where elevated blood glucose and glycemic variability have been found to contribute to infection, slow wound healing, and short-term mortality. Early clinical studies demonstrated improvement in mortality and morbidity resulting from intensive insulin therapy targeting euglycemia. Follow-up clinical studies have shown mixed results suggesting that the risk of hypoglycemia may outweigh the benefits of aggressive glycemic control. None of the prior studies clarify whether euglycemic targets are in themselves harmful, or if the danger lies in the inadequacy of the available methods for achieving desired glycemic outcomes. In this paper, we use a recently developed simulation model of stress hyperglycemia to demonstrate that given an insulin protocol glycemic outcomes are specific to the patient population under consideration, and that there is a need to optimize insulin therapy at the population level. Next, we use the simulator to demonstrate that the performance of Adaptive Proportional Feedback (APF), a popular format for computerized insulin therapy, is sensitive to its parameters, especially to the parameters that govern the aggressiveness of adaptation. Finally, we propose a framework for simulation-based protocol optimization using an objective function that penalizes below-range deviations more heavily than comparable deviations above.

Glucose control in the intensive care unit by use of continuous glucose monitoring: what level of measurement error is acceptable?

BACKGROUND

Accuracy and frequency of glucose measurement is essential to achieve safe and efficacious glucose control in the intensive care unit. Emerging continuous glucose monitors provide frequent measurements, trending information, and alarms. The objective of this study was to establish the level of accuracy of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) associated with safe and efficacious glucose control in the intensive care unit.

METHODS

We evaluated 3 established glucose control protocols [Yale, University of Washington, and Normoglycemia in Intensive Care Evaluation and Surviving Using Glucose Algorithm Regulation (NICE-SUGAR)] by use of computer simulations. Insulin delivery was informed by intermittent blood glucose (BG) measurements or CGM levels with an increasing level of measurement error. Measures of glucose control included mean glucose, glucose variability, proportion of time glucose was in target range, and hypoglycemia episodes.

RESULTS

Apart from the Washington protocol, CGM with mean absolute relative deviation (MARD) ≤ 15% resulted in similar mean glucose as with the use of intermittent BG measurements. Glucose variability was also similar between CGM and BG-informed protocols. Frequency and duration of hypoglycemia were not worse by use of CGM with MARD ≤ 10%. Measures of glucose control varied more between protocols than at different levels of the CGM error.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of CGM-informed and BG-informed commonly used glucose protocols is similar, but the risk of hypoglycemia may be reduced by use of CGM with MARD ≤ 10%. Protocol choice has greater influence on glucose control measures than the glucose measurement method.

Modeling of effect of glucose sensor errors on insulin dosage and glucose bolus computed by LOGIC-Insulin

BACKGROUND

Effective and safe glycemic control in critically ill patients requires accurate glucose sensors and adequate insulin dosage calculators. The LOGIC-Insulin calculator for glycemic control has recently been validated in the LOGIC-1 randomized controlled trial. In this study, we aimed to determine the allowable error for intermittent and continuous glucose sensors, on the basis of the LOGIC-Insulin calculator.

METHODS

A gaussian simulation model with a varying bias (0%-20%) and CV (-20% to +20%) simulated blood glucose values from the LOGIC-1 study (n = 149 patients) in 10 Monte Carlo steps. A clinical error grid system was developed to compare the simulated LOGIC-Insulin-directed intervention with the nominal intervention (0% bias, 0% CV). The severity of error measuring the clinical effect of the simulated LOGIC-Insulin intervention was graded as type B, C, and D errors. Type D errors were classified as acutely life-threatening (0% probability preferred).

RESULTS

The probability of all types of errors was lower for continuous sensors compared with intermittent sensors. The maximum total error (TE), defined as the first TE introducing a type B/C/D error, was similar for both sensor types. To avoid type D errors, TEs <15.7% for intermittent sensors and <17.8% for continuous sensors were required. Mean absolute relative difference thresholds for type C errors were 7.1% for intermittent and 11.0% for continuous sensors.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuous sensors had a lower probability for clinical errors than intermittent sensors at the same accuracy level. These simulations demonstrated the suitability of the LOGIC-Insulin control system for use with continuous, as well as intermittent, sensors.

Intelligent closed-loop insulin delivery systems for ICU patients

Good glycemic control through insulin administration among intensive care unit (ICU) patients can reduce mortality significantly; however, it remains a big challenge because of scarcity of individualized models for ICU patients. To deal with this challenge, a new combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed to identify the model online as well as to optimally design the input, i.e., the insulin delivery rate automatically. According to the population distribution, ten typical linear dynamic models were selected such that any patient's model could be approximated by a linear combination of these ten typical models. PSO was used to update the weight coefficients while MPC was used to design the insulin delivery rate based on the combination model identified by using PSO. The proposed strategy was compared with the Yale protocol on 30 virtual subjects. According to the control-variability grid analysis, the percentage values in A + B zone were, respectively, 100% under the proposed strategy and while 51% under the Yale protocol, which demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed strategy. As a good candidate for the full closed-loop insulin delivery method, this new combination can control the glucose level by bringing it to a safe range promptly thereby reducing the risk of death.

Continuous glucose control in the ICU: report of a 2013 round table meeting

Achieving adequate glucose control in critically ill patients is a complex but important part of optimal patient management. Until relatively recently, intermittent measurements of blood glucose have been the only means of monitoring blood glucose levels. With growing interest in the possible beneficial effects of continuous over intermittent monitoring and the development of several continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, a round table conference was convened to discuss and, where possible, reach consensus on the various aspects related to glucose monitoring and management using these systems. In this report, we discuss the advantages and limitations of the different types of devices available, the potential advantages of continuous over intermittent testing, the relative importance of trend and point accuracy, the standards necessary for reporting results in clinical trials and for recognition by official bodies, and the changes that may be needed in current glucose management protocols as a result of a move towards increased use of CGM. We close with a list of the research priorities in this field, which will be necessary if CGM is to become a routine part of daily practice in the management of critically ill patients.

Impact of sensor and measurement timing errors on model-based insulin sensitivity

A model-based insulin sensitivity parameter (SI) is often used in glucose-insulin system models to define the glycaemic response to insulin. As a parameter identified from clinical data, insulin sensitivity can be affected by blood glucose (BG) sensor error and measurement timing error, which can subsequently impact analyses or glycaemic variability during control. This study assessed the impact of both measurement timing and BG sensor errors on identified values of SI and its hour-to-hour variability within a common type of glucose-insulin system model. Retrospective clinical data were used from 270 patients admitted to the Christchurch Hospital ICU between 2005 and 2007 to identify insulin sensitivity profiles. We developed error models for the Abbott Optium Xceed glucometer and measurement timing from clinical data. The effect of these errors on the re-identified insulin sensitivity was investigated by Monte-Carlo analysis. The results of the study show that timing errors in isolation have little clinically significant impact on identified SI level or variability. The clinical impact of changes to SI level induced by combined sensor and timing errors is likely to be significant during glycaemic control. Identified values of SI were mostly (90th percentile) within 29% of the true value when influenced by both sources of error. However, these effects may be overshadowed by physiological factors arising from the critical condition of the patients or other under-modelled or un-modelled dynamics. Thus, glycaemic control protocols that are designed to work with data from glucometers need to be robust to these errors and not be too aggressive in dosing insulin.

Interstitial insulin kinetic parameters for a 2-compartment insulin model with saturable clearance

Glucose-insulin system models are commonly used for identifying insulin sensitivity. With physiological, 2-compartment insulin kinetics models, accurate kinetic parameter values are required for reliable estimates of insulin sensitivity. This study uses data from 6 published microdialysis studies to determine the most appropriate parameter values for the transcapillary diffusion rate (n(I)) and cellular insulin clearance rate (n(C)). The 6 studies (12 data sets) used microdialysis techniques to simultaneously obtain interstitial and plasma insulin concentrations. The reported plasma insulin concentrations were used as input and interstitial insulin concentrations were simulated with the interstitial insulin kinetics sub-model. These simulated results were then compared to the reported interstitial measurements and the most appropriate set of parameter values was determined across the 12 data sets by combining the results. Interstitial insulin kinetic parameters values n(I)=n(C)=0.0060 min⁻¹ were shown to be the most appropriate. These parameter values are associated with an effective, interstitial insulin half-life, t(½)=58 min, within the range of 25-130 min reported by others.

Simulation of oral glucose tolerance tests and the corresponding isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion studies for calculation of the incretin effect

The incretin effect, which is a unique stimulus of insulin secretion in response to oral ingestion of nutrients, is calculated by the difference in insulin secretory responses from an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and a corresponding isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion (IIGI) study. The OGTT model of this study, which is individualized by fitting the glucose profiles during an OGTT, was developed to predict the glucose profile during an IIGI study in the same subject. Also, the model predicts the insulin and incretin profiles during both studies. The incretin effect, estimated by simulation, was compared with that measured by physiologic studies from eight human subjects with normal glucose tolerance, and the result exhibited a good correlation (r > 0.8); the incretin effect from the simulation was 56.5% ± 10.6% while the one from the measured data was 52.5% ± 19.6%. In conclusion, the parameters of the OGTT model have been successfully estimated to predict the profiles of both OGTTs and IIGI studies. Therefore, with glucose data from the OGTT alone, this model could control and predict the physiologic responses, including insulin secretion during OGTTs and IIGI studies, which could eventually eliminate the need for complex and cumbersome IIGI studies in incretin research.

A Generic Integrated Physiologically based Whole-body Model of the Glucose-Insulin-Glucagon Regulatory System

Models of glucose metabolism are a valuable tool for fundamental and applied medical research in diabetes. Use cases range from pharmaceutical target selection to automatic blood glucose control. Standard compartmental models represent little biological detail, which hampers the integration of multiscale data and confines predictive capabilities. We developed a detailed, generic physiologically based whole-body model of the glucose-insulin-glucagon regulatory system, reflecting detailed physiological properties of healthy populations and type 1 diabetes individuals expressed in the respective parameterizations. The model features a detailed representation of absorption models for oral glucose, subcutaneous insulin and glucagon, and an insulin receptor model relating pharmacokinetic properties to pharmacodynamic effects. Model development and validation is based on literature data. The quality of predictions is high and captures relevant observed inter- and intra-individual variability. In the generic form, the model can be applied to the development and validation of novel diabetes treatment strategies.

Variability of insulin sensitivity during the first 4 days of critical illness: implications for tight glycemic control

Background

Effective tight glycemic control (TGC) can improve outcomes in critical care patients, but it is difficult to achieve consistently. Insulin sensitivity defines the metabolic balance between insulin concentration and insulin-mediated glucose disposal. Hence, variability of insulin sensitivity can cause variable glycemia. This study quantifies and compares the daily evolution of insulin sensitivity level and variability for critical care patients receiving TGC.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of data from the SPRINT TGC study involving patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical ICU between August 2005 and May 2007. Only patients who commenced TGC within 12 hours of ICU admission and spent at least 24 hours on the SPRINT protocol were included (N = 164). Model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) was identified each hour. Absolute level and hour-to-hour percent changes in SI were assessed on cohort and per-patient bases. Levels and variability of SI were compared over time on 24-hour and 6-hour timescales for the first 4 days of ICU stay.

Results

Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increased by 34% and 33% (p < 0.001) between days 1 and 2 of ICU stay. Concomitantly, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 32% and 36% (p < 0.001). For 72% of the cohort, median SI on day 2 was higher than on day 1. The day 1–2 results are the only clear, statistically significant trends across both analyses. Analysis of the first 24 hours using 6-hour blocks of SI data showed that most of the improvement in insulin sensitivity level and variability seen between days 1 and 2 occurred during the first 12–18 hours of day 1.

Conclusions

Critically ill patients have significantly lower and more variable insulin sensitivity on day 1 than later in their ICU stay and particularly during the first 12 hours. This rapid improvement is likely due to the decline of counter-regulatory hormones as the acute phase of critical illness progresses. Clinically, these results suggest that while using TGC protocols with patients during their first few days of ICU stay, extra care should be afforded. Increased measurement frequency, higher target glycemic bands, conservative insulin dosing, and modulation of carbohydrate nutrition should be considered to minimize safely the outcome glycemic variability and reduce the risk of hypoglycemia.

Perioperative glycemic management in 2011: paradigm shifts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The publication of Van den Berghe's landmark study in 2001 supported the use of intensive insulin therapy (IIT) to target normoglycemia in the critically ill and triggered a new era in glycemic management in the perioperative period and in the ICU. In 2009, the normoglycemia in intensive care evaluation-survival using glucose algorithm regulation (NICE-SUGAR) trial demonstrated increased mortality and incidence of hypoglycemia in patients managed with IIT, resulting in a shift toward higher blood glucose targets in this patient population. This review distills clinically pertinent principles from the related literature published in the months since the NICE-SUGAR trial.

RECENT FINDINGS

A target blood glucose level in the acute care setting supported by many of the pertinent societies and frequently quoted in the literature is 140-180 mg/dl. Hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and glucose variability are detrimental. Accurate and efficient glucose monitoring devices are essential. Insulin infusion protocols (IIPs) employed to achieve desired blood glucose targets must be individualized and validated for the ICU and institution in which they are being implemented.

SUMMARY

Appropriate glycemic management in the acute care setting can be achieved by targeting a reasonable blood glucose range and employing specific and institutionally validated IIPs.

Relationship between glucose volume of distribution and the extracellular space: a multiple tracer study

Although the use of radioisotopes in the investigation of glucose metabolism dates back more than 50 years, several relevant quantitative aspects have not been definitively determined. These include the volume of distribution (V(d)) of glucose and recycling of glucose radioisotopes from liver glycogen. These problems are further complicated by methodological issues such as the following: (1) glucose tracers have different metabolic fates that may influence volume estimates, and (2) the calculation method needs to be based on physical principles to avoid some limitations of compartmental models. To address these issues, we administered boluses of an extracellular marker ([1-(14)C]-l-glucose, 30 μCi) and 2 glucose tracers ([2-(3)H]-d-glucose and [3-(3)H]-d-glucose, 120 μCi of each), followed by a 1-mg glucagon bolus (in the presence of somatostatin) 245 minutes later, in conscious beagles to account for potential problems in recycling of the label through glycogen. We used modeling methods based on physical principles (circulatory model), which yield volume estimates with a clear physiological interpretation. Glucose V(d) (mL/kg) were 204 ([1-(14)C]-l-glucose), 191 ([2-(3)H]-d-glucose), and 206 ([3-(3)H]-d-glucose). These values were not different and correlated. The amount of recycled [3-(3)H]-d-glucose in response to glucagon was small (∼1.7% of the injected tracer dose). An additional result of this analysis is the determination of the parameters of the circulatory model in beagles for the standard [3-(3)H]-d-glucose tracer. Using multiple tracers in beagles and calculation methods based on physical principles, we have provided direct proof that the glucose V(d) equals the extracellular space in beagles under basal conditions.

Creating a perioperative glycemic control program

Hyperglycemia in the surgical population is a recognized risk factor for postoperative complications; however, there is little literature to date regarding the management of hyperglycemia in the perioperative period. Here, we detail the strategies that our institutions have employed to identify and treat hyperglycemia in patients with diabetes who present for surgery. Our approach focuses on the recognition of hyperglycemia and metabolic abnormalities, control of glucose levels via insulin infusion when needed, monitoring for hypoglycemia and a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach that provides standardized recommendations for patients at all points in care as they transition from the preoperative clinic into the operating room, and then into the hospital.

In silico evaluation of glucose control protocols for critically ill patients

This letter presents an in silico evaluation method of glucose control protocols for critically ill patients with hyperglycemia. Although various glucose control protocols were introduced and investigated in clinical trials, development and validation of a novel glucose control protocol for critically ill patients require too much time and resources in clinical evaluation. We employed a virtual patient model of the critically ill patient with hyperglycemia and evaluated the clinically investigated glucose control protocols in a computational environment. The three-day simulation results presented the time profiles of glucose and insulin concentrations, the amount of enteral feed and intravenous bolus of glucose, and the intravenous insulin infusion rate. The hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia index, blood glucose concentrations, insulin doses, intravenous glucose infusion rates, and glucose feed rates were compared between different protocols. It is shown that a similar hypoglycemia incidence exists in simulation and clinical results. We concluded that this in silico simulation method using a virtual patient model could be useful for predicting hypoglycemic incidence of novel glucose control protocols for critically ill patients, prior to clinical trials.

Evaluating glycemic control algorithms by computer simulations

BACKGROUND

Numerous guidelines and algorithms exist to achieve glycemic control. Their strengths and weaknesses are difficult to assess without head-to-head comparison in time-consuming clinical trials. We hypothesized that computer simulations may be useful.

METHODS

Two open-label randomized clinical trials were replicated using computer simulations. One study compared performance of the enhanced model predictive control (eMPC) algorithm at two intensive care units in the United Kingdom and Belgium. The other study compared three glucose control algorithms-eMPC, Matias (the absolute glucose protocol), and Bath (the relative glucose change protocol)-in a single intensive care unit. Computer simulations utilized a virtual population of 56 critically ill subjects derived from routine data collected at four European surgical and medical intensive care units.

RESULTS

In agreement with the first clinical study, computer simulations reproduced the main finding and discriminated between the two intensive care units in terms of the sampling interval (1.3 h vs. 1.8 h, United Kingdom vs. Belgium; P < 0.01). Other glucose control metrics were comparable between simulations and clinical results. The principal outcome of the second study was also reproduced. The eMPC demonstrated better performance compared with the Matias and Bath algorithms as assessed by the time when plasma glucose was in the target range between 4.4 and 6.1 mmol/L (65% vs. 43% vs. 42% [P < 0.001], eMPC vs. Matias vs. Bath) without increasing the risk of severe hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Computer simulations may provide resource-efficient means for preclinical evaluation of algorithms for glycemic control in the critically ill.

Physiological modeling, tight glycemic control, and the ICU clinician: what are models and how can they affect practice?

Critically ill patients are highly variable in their response to care and treatment. This variability and the search for improved outcomes have led to a significant increase in the use of protocolized care to reduce variability in care. However, protocolized care does not address the variability of outcome due to inter- and intra-patient variability, both in physiological state, and the response to disease and treatment. This lack of patient-specificity defines the opportunity for patient-specific approaches to diagnosis, care, and patient management, which are complementary to, and fit within, protocolized approaches.Computational models of human physiology offer the potential, with clinical data, to create patient-specific models that capture a patient's physiological status. Such models can provide new insights into patient condition by turning a series of sometimes confusing clinical data into a clear physiological picture. More directly, they can track patient-specific conditions and thus provide new means of diagnosis and opportunities for optimising therapy.This article presents the concept of model-based therapeutics, the use of computational models in clinical medicine and critical care in specific, as well as its potential clinical advantages, in a format designed for the clinical perspective. The review is presented in terms of a series of questions and answers. These aspects directly address questions concerning what makes a model, how it is made patient-specific, what it can be used for, its limitations and, importantly, what constitutes sufficient validation.To provide a concrete foundation, the concepts are presented broadly, but the details are given in terms of a specific case example. Specifically, tight glycemic control (TGC) is an area where inter- and intra-patient variability can dominate the quality of care control and care received from any given protocol. The overall review clearly shows the concept and significant clinical potential of using computational models in critical care medicine.

A physiological Intensive Control Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (ICING) model validated in critically ill patients

Intensive insulin therapy (IIT) and tight glycaemic control (TGC), particularly in intensive care unit (ICU), are the subjects of increasing and controversial debate in recent years. Model-based TGC has shown potential in delivering safe and tight glycaemic management, all the while limiting hypoglycaemia. A comprehensive, more physiologically relevant Intensive Control Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (ICING) model is presented and validated using data from critically ill patients. Two existing glucose-insulin models are reviewed and formed the basis for the ICING model. Model limitations are discussed with respect to relevant physiology, pharmacodynamics and TGC practicality. Model identifiability issues are carefully considered for clinical settings. This article also contains significant reference to relevant physiology and clinical literature, as well as some references to the modeling efforts in this field. Identification of critical constant population parameters was performed in two stages, thus addressing model identifiability issues. Model predictive performance is the primary factor for optimizing population parameter values. The use of population values are necessary due to the limited clinical data available at the bedside in the clinical control scenario. Insulin sensitivity, S(I), the only dynamic, time-varying parameter, is identified hourly for each individual. All population parameters are justified physiologically and with respect to values reported in the clinical literature. A parameter sensitivity study confirms the validity of limiting time-varying parameters to S(I) only, as well as the choices for the population parameters. The ICING model achieves median fitting error of <1% over data from 173 patients (N=42,941 h in total) who received insulin while in the ICU and stayed for ≥ 72 h. Most importantly, the median per-patient 1-h ahead prediction error is a very low 2.80% [IQR 1.18, 6.41%]. It is significant that the 75th percentile prediction error is within the lower bound of typical glucometer measurement errors of 7-12%. These results confirm that the ICING model is suitable for developing model-based insulin therapies, and capable of delivering real-time model-based TGC with a very tight prediction error range. Finally, the detailed examination and discussion of issues surrounding model-based TGC and existing glucose-insulin models render this article a mini-review of the state of model-based TGC in critical care.

Closed-loop insulin delivery: from bench to clinical practice

Automated closed-loop insulin delivery, also referred to as the 'artificial pancreas', has been an important but elusive goal of diabetes treatment for many decades. Research milestones include the conception of continuous glucose monitoring in the early 1960s, followed by the production of the first commercial hospital-based artificial pancreas in the late 1970s that combined intravenous glucose sensing and insulin delivery. In the past 10 years, research into the artificial pancreas has gained substantial momentum and focused on the subcutaneous route for glucose measurement and insulin delivery, which reflects technological advances in interstitial glucose monitoring and the increasing use of the continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion. This Review discusses the design of an artificial pancreas, its components and clinical results, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of different types of automated closed-loop systems and potential future advances. The introduction of the artificial pancreas into clinical practice will probably occur gradually, starting with simpler approaches, such as overnight control of blood glucose concentration and temporary pump shut-off, that are adapted to more complex situations, such as glycemic control during meals and exercise.

Prediction of glucose concentration in post-cardiothoracic surgery patients using continuous glucose monitoring

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the predictive capability of simple linear extrapolation of continuous glucose data in postsurgical patients undergoing intensive care.

METHODS

Twenty patients, both with or without an established diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, scheduled to undergo cardiothoracic surgery were included. Glucose was continuously monitored in the intensive care unit with a microdialysis-based subcutaneous glucose monitoring system. The prediction horizon (PH) with respect to a given glucose reading was calculated by extrapolating the linear trend of the glucose signal and subjected to both analytical and clinical assessment (by calculation of the average duration of consecutive positive and negative glucose signal trends, the root mean squared error [RMSE], and by insulin titration error grid [ITEG] analysis, respectively).

RESULTS

In total, 609 h of continuous glucose data from 17 patients were analyzed. The average duration of consecutive positive and negative glucose signal trends was 7.97 (3.99-19.98) min (median, interquartile range). An increase in the RMSE of 0.5 mmol/L (9 mg/dL) was associated with a PH of 37 min. A strong increase in the number of data points in the unacceptable violation zone of the ITEG was associated with a PH of approximately 20 min.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data provide evidence that simple linear extrapolation of glucose trend information obtained by continuous glucose monitoring can be used to predict the course of glycemia in critically ill patients for up to 20-30 min. This "glimpse into the future" can be used to proactively prevent the occurrence of adverse events.

Design and conduct of Caudwell Xtreme Everest: an observational cohort study of variation in human adaptation to progressive environmental hypoxia

BACKGROUND

The physiological responses to hypoxaemia and cellular hypoxia are poorly understood, and inter-individual differences in performance at altitude and outcome in critical illness remain unexplained. We propose a model for exploring adaptation to hypoxia in the critically ill: the study of healthy humans, progressively exposed to environmental hypobaric hypoxia (EHH). The aim of this study was to describe the spectrum of adaptive responses in humans exposed to graded EHH and identify factors (physiological and genetic) associated with inter-individual variation in these responses.

METHODS

DESIGN

Observational cohort study of progressive incremental exposure to EHH.

SETTING

University human physiology laboratory in London, UK (75 m) and 7 field laboratories in Nepal at 1300 m, 3500 m, 4250 m, 5300 m, 6400 m, 7950 m and 8400 m.

PARTICIPANTS

198 healthy volunteers and 24 investigators trekking to Everest Base Camp (EBC) (5300 m). A subgroup of 14 investigators studied at altitudes up to 8400 m on Everest.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Exercise capacity, exercise efficiency and economy, brain and muscle Near Infrared Spectroscopy, plasma biomarkers (including markers of inflammation), allele frequencies of known or suspected hypoxia responsive genes, spirometry, neurocognitive testing, retinal imaging, pupilometry. In nested subgroups: microcirculatory imaging, muscle biopsies with proteomic and transcriptomic tissue analysis, continuous cardiac output measurement, arterial blood gas measurement, trans-cranial Doppler, gastrointestinal tonometry, thromboelastography and ocular saccadometry.

RESULTS

Of 198 healthy volunteers leaving Kathmandu, 190 reached EBC (5300 m). All 24 investigators reached EBC. The completion rate for planned testing was more than 99% in the investigator group and more than 95% in the trekkers. Unique measurements were safely performed at extreme altitude, including the highest (altitude) field measurements of exercise capacity, cerebral blood flow velocity and microvascular blood flow at 7950 m and arterial blood gas measurement at 8400 m.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the feasibility and safety of conducting a large healthy volunteer cohort study of human adaptation to hypoxia in this difficult environment. Systematic measurements of a large set of variables were achieved in 222 subjects and at altitudes up to 8400 m. The resulting dataset is a unique resource for the study of genotype:phenotype interactions in relation to hypoxic adaptation.

Systems engineering medicine: engineering the inflammation response to infectious and traumatic challenges

The complexity of the systemic inflammatory response and the lack of a treatment breakthrough in the treatment of pathogenic infection demand that advanced tools be brought to bear in the treatment of severe sepsis and trauma. Systems medicine, the translational science counterpart to basic science's systems biology, is the interface at which these tools may be constructed. Rapid initial strides in improving sepsis treatment are possible through the use of phenomenological modelling and optimization tools for process understanding and device design. Higher impact, and more generalizable, treatment designs are based on mechanistic understanding developed through the use of physiologically based models, characterization of population variability, and the use of control-theoretic systems engineering concepts. In this review we introduce acute inflammation and sepsis as an example of just one area that is currently underserved by the systems medicine community, and, therefore, an area in which contributions of all types can be made.

SMARTDIAB: a communication and information technology approach for the intelligent monitoring, management and follow-up of type 1 diabetes patients

SMARTDIAB is a platform designed to support the monitoring, management, and treatment of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), by combining state-of-the-art approaches in the fields of database (DB) technologies, communications, simulation algorithms, and data mining. SMARTDIAB consists mainly of two units: 1) the patient unit (PU); and 2) the patient management unit (PMU), which communicate with each other for data exchange. The PMU can be accessed by the PU through the internet using devices, such as PCs/laptops with direct internet access or mobile phones via a Wi-Fi/General Packet Radio Service access network. The PU consists of an insulin pump for subcutaneous insulin infusion to the patient and a continuous glucose measurement system. The aforementioned devices running a user-friendly application gather patient's related information and transmit it to the PMU. The PMU consists of a diabetes data management system (DDMS), a decision support system (DSS) that provides risk assessment for long-term diabetes complications, and an insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), which reside on a Web server. The DDMS can be accessed from both medical personnel and patients, with appropriate security access rights and front-end interfaces. The DDMS, apart from being used for data storage/retrieval, provides also advanced tools for the intelligent processing of the patient's data, supporting the physician in decision making, regarding the patient's treatment. The IIAS is used to close the loop between the insulin pump and the continuous glucose monitoring system, by providing the pump with the appropriate insulin infusion rate in order to keep the patient's glucose levels within predefined limits. The pilot version of the SMARTDIAB has already been implemented, while the platform's evaluation in clinical environment is being in progress.

Simulation environment to evaluate closed-loop insulin delivery systems in type 1 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Closed-loop insulin delivery systems linking subcutaneous insulin infusion to real-time continuous glucose monitoring need to be evaluated in humans, but progress can be accelerated with the use of in silico testing. We present a simulation environment designed to support the development and testing of closed-loop insulin delivery systems in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).

METHODS

The principal components of the simulation environment include a mathematical model of glucose regulation representing a virtual population with T1DM, the glucose measurement model, and the insulin delivery model. The simulation environment is highly flexible. The user can specify an experimental protocol, define a population of virtual subjects, choose glucose measurement and insulin delivery models, and specify outcome measures. The environment provides graphical as well as numerical outputs to enable a comprehensive analysis of in silico study results. The simulation environment is validated by comparing its predictions against a clinical study evaluating overnight closed-loop insulin delivery in young people with T1DM using a model predictive controller.

RESULTS

The simulation model of glucose regulation is described, and population values of 18 synthetic subjects are provided. The validation study demonstrated that the simulation environment was able to reproduce the population results of the clinical study conducted in young people with T1DM.

CONCLUSIONS

Closed-loop trials in humans should be preceded and concurrently guided by highly efficient and resource-saving computer-based simulations. We demonstrate validity of population-based predictions obtained with our simulation environment.