Individual changes in anthropometric measures after age 60 years: a 15-year longitudinal population-based study

Association of possible sarcopenia with all-cause mortality in patients with solid cancer: A nationwide multicenter cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The concept of possible sarcopenia (PS) was recently introduced to enable timely intervention in settings without the technologies required to make a full diagnosis of sarcopenia. This study aimed to investigate the association between PS and all-cause mortality in patients with solid cancer.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

13,736 patients with 16 types of solid cancer who were ≥18 years old.

MEASUREMENTS

The presence of both a low calf circumference (men <34 cm or women <33 cm) and low handgrip strength (men <28 kg or women <18 kg) was considered to indicate PS. Harrell's C-index was used to assess prognostic value and the association of PS with mortality was estimated by calculating multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

The study enrolled 7207 men and 6529 women (median age = 57.8 years). During a median follow-up of 43 months, 3150 deaths occurred. PS showed higher Harrell's C-index (0.549, 95%CI = [0.541, 0.557]) than the low calf circumference (0.541, 95%CI = [0.531, 0.551], P = 0.037) or low handgrip strength (0.542, 95%CI = [0.532, 0.552], P = 0.026). PS was associated with increased mortality risk in both univariate (HR = 1.587, 95%CI = [1.476, 1.708]) and multivariable-adjusted models (HR = 1.190, 95%CI = [1.094, 1.293]). Sensitivity analyses showed that the association of PS with mortality was robust in different covariate subgroups, which also held after excluding those patients who died within the first 3 months (HR = 1.162, 95%CI = [1.060, 1.273]), 6 months (HR = 1.150, 95%CI = [1.039, 1.274]) and 12 months (HR = 1.139, 95%CI = [1.002, 1.296]) after enrollment.

CONCLUSION

PS could independently and robustly predict all-cause mortality in patients with solid cancer. These findings imply the importance of including PS assessment in routine cancer care to provide significant prognostic information to help mitigate sarcopenia-related premature deaths.

Associations Between Mid- to Late-Life Body Mass Index and Chronic Disease-Free Survival: A Nationwide Twin Study

BACKGROUND

Some studies have linked late-life overweight to a reduced mortality risk compared to normal body mass index (BMI). However, the impact of late-life overweight and its combination with mid-life BMI status on healthy survival remains unclear. We aimed to investigate whether and to what extent mid- and/or late-life overweight are associated with chronic disease-free survival.

METHODS

Within the Swedish Twin Registry, 11 597 chronic disease-free twins aged 60-79 years at baseline were followed up for 18 years. BMI (kg/m2) was recorded at baseline and 25-35 years before baseline (ie, midlife) and divided as underweight (<20), normal (≥20-25), overweight (≥25-30), and obese (≥30). Incident chronic diseases (cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and cancer) and deaths were ascertained via registries. Chronic disease-free survival was defined as years lived until the occurrence of any chronic diseases or death. Data were analyzed using multistate survival analysis.

RESULTS

Of all participants, 5 640 (48.6%) were overweight/obese at baseline. During the follow-up, 8 772 (75.6%) participants developed at least 1 chronic disease or died. Compared to normal BMI, late-life overweight and obesity were associated with 1.1 (95% CI, 0.3, 2.0) and 2.6 (1.6, 3.5) years shorter chronic disease-free survival. Compared to normal BMI through mid- to late life, consistent overweight/obesity and overweight/obesity only in mid-life led to 2.2 (1.0, 3.4) and 2.6 (0.7, 4.4) years shorter disease-free survival, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Late-life overweight and obesity may shorten disease-free survival. Further research is needed to determine whether preventing overweight/obesity from mid- to late life might favor longer and healthier survival.

Calf circumference as a screening tool for low skeletal muscle mass: Cut-off values in independent Thai older adults

BACKGROUND

Calf circumference is recommended as a marker for low muscle mass and as a case finding in the diagnosis of sarcopenia. However, the cut-off value differed by ethic and region. Currently there is no study among Thai population. Therefore, we aimed to identify the optimal cutoff value of calf circumference as a screening tool for low skeletal muscle mass in independent Thai older adults. Subgroup analysis was performed for obesity and adults over 75 years.

METHODS

This cross-sectional cohort studied in an outpatient geriatric check-up clinic. Participants, aged 60 and above, needed to be independent in basic activities of daily living to meet the inclusion criteria. Exclusion criteria comprised active malignancy, cardiac, pulmonary, or neurovascular diseases necessitating hospitalization in the preceding three months, chronic renal diseases requiring renal replacement therapy, and unstable psychiatric disorders. We measured the maximum calf circumference and appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMI) using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). Low muscle mass is defined according to the Asian Working Group of Sarcopenia (AWGS) 2019 consensus.

RESULTS

We enrolled 6,404 elderly adults (mean age 67.3 ± 5.1 years), with a 47% prevalence of low muscle mass in women and 25% in men. Lower muscle mass significantly correlated with reduced BMI and waist circumference in both genders (p < 0.001). Optimal cut-off values for low muscle mass screening were < 33 cm (sensitivity 80.1%, specificity 60.5%) for women and < 34 cm (sensitivity 85.4%, specificity 70.2%) for men. Subgroup analysis for those with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² suggested raising the cut-off for women to < 34 cm (sensitivity 80.6%, specificity 54.0%) and for men to < 35 cm (sensitivity 88.7%, specificity 55.2%) to enhance specificity without substantial sensitivity loss. In the older-old adult subgroup (≥ 75 years), optimal cut-off values were < 33 cm (sensitivity 84.6%, specificity 79.9%) for women and < 34 cm (sensitivity 75.6%, specificity 87.0%) for men.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a strong correlation between calf circumference and ASMI in independent Thai older adults. Calf circumference can serve as a screening tool for identifying low muscle mass. The recommended cut-off values for men and women are 34 cm and 33 cm, respectively in alignment with AWGS 2019 recommendation. Incorporating a 1-cm higher cut-off value for obese older adults improves the accuracy of muscle mass screening.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Thai clinical trial registry: TCTR20200511003.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Complications and Prolonged Hospitalization with the GLIM Criteria Combinations Containing Calf Circumference in Elderly Asian Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Malnutrition is widely present and influences the prognosis of elderly inpatients, so it is helpful to be able to identify it with a convenient method. However, in the widely accepted criteria for malnutrition, the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM), a lot of metrics can be used to define the phenotypic and etiological criteria. To identify muscle mass reduction, anthropometric parameters such as calf circumference (CC) and hand grip strength (HGS) are preferable to other expensive methods in many situations because they are easy and inexpensive to measure, but their applicability needs to be verified in specific clinical scenarios. This study aims to verify the value of CC- and HGS-identified muscle loss in diagnosing malnutrition and predicting in-hospital complications (IHC) and prolonged length of hospital stay (PLOS) in elderly inpatients using machine learning methods.

METHODS

A sample of 7122 elderly inpatients who were enrolled in a previous multicenter cohort study in China were screened for eligibility for the current study and were then retrospectively diagnosed for malnutrition using 33 GLIM criteria that differ in their combinations of phenotypic and etiological criteria, in which CC or CC+HGS were used to identify muscle mass reduction. The diagnostic consistency with the subjective global assessment (SGA) criteria at admission was evaluated according to Kappa coefficients. The association and the predictive value of the GLIM-defined malnutrition with 30-day IHC and PLOS were evaluated with logistic regression and randomized forest models.

RESULTS

In total, 2526 inpatients (average age 74.63 ± 7.12 years) were enrolled in the current study. The prevalence of malnutrition identified by the 33 criteria combinations ranged from 3.3% to 27.2%. The main IHCs was infectious complications (2.5%). The Kappa coefficients ranged from 0.130 to 0.866. Logistic regression revealed that malnutrition was identified by 31 GLIM criteria combinations that were significantly associated with 30-day IHC, and 22 were significantly associated with PLOS. Random forest prediction revealed that GLIM 15 (unconscious weight loss + muscle mass reduction, combined with disease burden/inflammation) performs best in predicting IHC; GLIM 30 (unconscious weight loss + muscle mass reduction + BMI reduction, combined with disease burden/inflammation) performs best in predicting PLOS. Importantly, CC alone performs better than CC+HGS in the criteria combinations for predicting adverse clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Muscle mass reduction defined by a reduced CC performs well in the GLIM criteria combinations for diagnosing malnutrition and predicting IHC and PLOS in elderly Asian inpatients. The applicability of other anthropometric parameters in these applications needs to be further explored.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of variations of anthropometric measures of obesity with age in the Jackson Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To explore how anthropometric measures of obesity vary with age among African American (AA) adults.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

3634 AA adults participated in the Jackson Heart Study (Jackson, Mississippi, USA) from 2004 to 2013.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR).

METHODS

Linear regression models were used to estimate the mean differences in anthropometric measures cross-sectionally by age group. Longitudinal changes in anthropometric measures over time (ie, the ageing effect) within each sex and age group were analysed using mixed effects models. All regression models were adjusted for education and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

In cross-sectional analysis, older age was associated with lower BMI, WC and WHtR, but higher WHR in both sexes. Compared with 25 to <44 years age group, the mean (95% CI) BMI, WC and WHtR was 0.80 (0.66 to 0.94), 0.27 (0.13 to 0.42) and 0.18 (0.03 to 0.32) standardised (SD) unit lower, while WHR was 0.48 (0.33 to 0.62) SD unit higher in the 75+ years age group. In longitudinal analysis, ageing was associated with increased BMI, WC and WHtR, among younger age groups but not in older age groups. However, WHR tended to increase with ageing across all age groups in both sexes. Among men 75+ years old, the mean change (95% CI) in BMI, WC and WHtR for every 5 years increase in age, was -0.20 (-0.29 to -0.11), -0.19 (-0.31 to -0.07), -0.15 (-0.27 to -0.02) SD unit, respectively, while it was 0.24 (0.05 to 0.44) SD unit for WHR.

CONCLUSIONS

Among middle-aged AA adults, all four anthropometric measures of obesity examined increased with ageing. However, among elderly AA adults, only WHR showed continued increase with ageing. WHR may be a better anthropometric measure for monitoring obesity in older AA adults.

Associations between Body Mass Index and Probable Sarcopenia in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

(1) Background/Objectives: The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and probable sarcopenia, a precursor to sarcopenia diagnosis, is unclear. While low BMI has been associated with sarcopenia risk, some evidence suggests that obesity may confer protection. We aimed to investigate the association between probable sarcopenia and BMI and, furthermore, to explore associations with waist circumference (WC). (2) Methods: This cross-sectional study included 5783 community-dwelling adults (mean age 70.4 ± 7.5 years) from Wave 6 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Probable sarcopenia was defined using the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) criteria for low hand grip strength and/or slow chair rise. Associations between BMI and probable sarcopenia were examined using multivariable regression analysis and were similarly performed for WC. (3) Results: Our overall findings show that an underweight BMI was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of probable sarcopenia [OR (CI) 2.25 (1.17, 4.33), p = 0.015]. For higher BMI categories, the findings were conflicting. Overweight and obesity were associated with an increased likelihood of probable sarcopenia when defined by lower limb strength alone, [OR (CI), 2.32 (1.15, 4.70), p = 0.019; 1.23 (1.02, 1.49), p = 0.35, and 1.49 (1.21, 1.83), p < 0.001, respectively]. In contrast, overweight and obesity appeared protective when probable sarcopenia was assessed by low hand grip strength alone [OR (CI) 0.72 (0.60, 0.88), p = 0.001, and 0.64 (0.52, 0.79), p < 0.001, respectively]. WC was not significantly associated with probable sarcopenia on multivariable regression analysis. (4) Conclusion: This study supports the evidence that low BMI is associated with an increased likelihood of probable sarcopenia, highlighting an important at-risk group. The findings for overweight and obesity were inconsistent and may be measurement dependent. It seems prudent that all older adults at risk of probable sarcopenia, including those with overweight/obesity, are assessed to prevent underdetection of probable sarcopenia alone or with the double burden of obesity.

Overweight in Older Adults: A Follow-Up of Fifteen Years of the SABE Survey

Despite extensive research on overweight and obesity, there are few studies that present longitudinal statistical analyses among non-institutionalized older adults, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and factors associated with excess weight in older adults from the same cohort over a period of fifteen years. A total of 264 subjects aged (≥60 years) from the SABE survey (Health, Wellbeing and Aging) in the years 2000, 2006, 2010, and 2015 in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, were evaluated. Overweight was assessed by a BMI of ≥28 kg/m². Multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for sociodemographic and health data were used to assess factors associated with excess weight. After normal weight, overweight was the most prevalent nutritional status in all evaluated periods: 34.02% in 2000 (95%CI: 28.29-40.26); 34.86% in 2006 (95%CI: 28.77-41.49%); 41.38% in 2010 (95%CI: 35.25-47.79); 33.75% in 2015 (95%CI: 28.02-40.01). Being male was negatively associated with being overweight in all years (OR: 0.34 in 2000; OR: 0.36 in 2006; OR: 0.27 in 2010; and OR: 0.43 in 2015). A greater number of chronic diseases and worse functionality were the main factors associated with overweight, regardless of gender, age, marital status, education, physical activity, and alcohol or tobacco consumption. Older adults with overweight and obesity, a greater number of chronic diseases, and difficulties in carrying out daily tasks required a greater commitment to healthcare. Health services must be prepared to accommodate this rapidly growing population in low- and middle-income countries.

Association Between Late-Life Weight Change and Dementia: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of late-life weight changes on incident dementia is unclear. We aimed to investigate the associations of body mass index (BMI) and weight changes with dementia and to explore the role of APOE ɛ4 in these associations.

METHODS

A total of 1 673 dementia-free participants aged ≥60 and older were followed for an initial 6 years to detect changes in BMI/weight and then for an additional 6 years to detect incident dementia. BMI change ([BMIfirst 6-year follow-up - BMIbaseline]/BMIbaseline) was categorized as stable (≤5%), and moderate (5%-10%) or large (>10%) gain or loss. Weight change (weightfirst 6-year follow-up - weightbaseline) was categorized as stable (≤2.5 kg), and moderate (2.5-7.5 kg) or large (>7.5 kg) gain or loss. Dementia was diagnosed following standard criteria. Data were analyzed using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Over the second 6-year follow-up period, 102 incident dementia cases were identified. Compared with stable BMI, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of dementia were 2.61 (1.09-5.54) and 2.93 (1.72-4.91) for BMI gain or loss >10%, respectively. The risk of dementia was higher among APOE ɛ4 carriers experiencing a large BMI gain (9.93 [3.49-24.6]) or loss (6.66 [2.83-14.4]) than APOE ɛ4 noncarriers with stable BMI. Similar results were observed for weight change and dementia associations.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI and weight changes showed U-shaped associations with dementia risk. Large bodyweight gain and loss alike are associated with an almost 3-fold higher risk of dementia, which may be amplified by APOE ɛ4.

Secular Difference in Body Mass Index From 2014 to 2020 in Chinese Older Adults: A Time-Series Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Body mass index (BMI) is the most widely used parameter to assess the body weight status. Both the increase of BMI (overweight and obesity) and decrease of BMI (underweight) has been associated with high risk of adverse outcome, such as stroke, disability, and even death. However, recent data on secular differences in BMI in the Chinese aged population are limited. The present study provides robust new evidence about the evolving epidemic of obesity among aged adults in China.

Objective

Evaluating secular difference in BMI in a group of Chinese older adults.

Materials and Methods

We analyzed 7 continuous survey years (2014–2020), including 50,192 Chinese aged participants (25,505 men and 24,687 women, aged 71.9 ± 6.1 years, age range: 65–99 years). Information on sex, age, height, and body weight, was collected based on medical history. Participants were classified into four groups: underweight (BMI &lt; 18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5 kg/m2 ≤ BMI &lt; 25 kg/m2), overweight (25 kg/m2 ≤ BMI &lt; 30 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2). Linear regressions were used to assess the secular difference in BMI. Sex and age differences were also evaluated by stratified analyses.

Results

From 2014 to 2020, age-adjusted mean BMI increased by 0.3 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.1, 0.5 kg/m2) in men, and 0.5 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.2, 0.7 kg/m2) in women. Age-standardized prevalence of underweight decreased from 3.0 to 2.3% in men, and from 3.0 to 2.1% in women. Age-standardized prevalence of overweight increased in both men (from 40.1 to 41.7%) and women (from 37.8 to 39.8%), and so as obesity (men: from 4.1 to 6.1%; women: from 5.8 to 8.7%).

Conclusion

Our results confirmed that BMI gradually increased from 2014 to 2020. The age-adjusted mean BMI increased by 0.3 kg/m2 in older men, and 0.5 kg/m2 in older women. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity significantly increased, especially in 70–79-year age group, while the prevalence of underweight decreased. The combination of a balanced-diet and physical exercise is needed to maintain optimal BMI range for the aged population.

Influence of Subject-Specific Effects in Longitudinal Modelling of Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease

Background:

Accurate longitudinal modelling of cognitive decline is a major goal of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementia (ADRD) research. However, the impact of subject-specific effects is not well characterized and may have implications for data generation and prediction.

Objective:

This study seeks to address the impact of subject-specific effects, which are a less well-characterized aspect of ADRD cognitive decline, as measured by the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale’s Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog).

Methods:

Prediction errors and biases for the ADAS-Cog subscale were evaluated when using only population-level effects, robust imputation of subject-specific effects using model covariances, and directly known individual-level effects fit during modelling as a natural control. Evaluated models included pre-specified parameterizations for clinical trial simulation, analogous mixed-effects regression models parameterized directly, and random forest ensemble models. Assessment used a meta-database of Alzheimer’s disease studies with validation in simulated synthetic cohorts.

Results:

All models observed increases in variance under imputation leading to increased prediction error. Bias decreased with imputation except under the pre-specified parameterization, which increased in the meta-database, but was attenuated under simulation. Known fitted subject effects gave the best prediction results.

Conclusion:

Subject-specific effects were found to have a profound impact on predicting ADAS-Cog. Reductions in bias suggest imputing random effects assists in calculating results on average, as when simulating clinical trials. However, reduction in error emphasizes population-level effects when attempting to predict outcomes for individuals. Forecasting future observations greatly benefits from using known subject-specific effects.

Calf Circumference and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Based on Trend Estimation Approaches

OBJECTIVES

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis and quantify the associations of total mortality with calf circumference (CC) in adults 18 years and older via combining various analyses based on empirical dichotomic CC, continuous CC, and dose-response CC.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of relevant studies in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science published through April 12, 2022. This systematic review includes longitudinal observational studies reporting the relationships of total mortality with CC. We calculated the pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of total mortality with CC per 1 cm for each study and combined the values using standard meta-analysis approaches. Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS), Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach (GRADE), and the Instrument for assessing the Credibility of Effect Modification Analyses (ICEMAN) were assessed for meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Our analysis included a total of 37 cohort studies involving 62,736 participants, across which moderate heterogeneity was observed (I2=75.7%, P<0.001), but no publication bias was found. Study quality scores ranged from 6 to 9 (mean 7.7), with only three studies awarded a score of 6 (fair quality). We observed an inverse trend between total death risk and CC per 1 cm increase (RR, 0.95, 95% CI, 0.94-0.96; P<0.001; GRADE quality=high). Only a very slight difference was found among residents of nursing homes (6.9% mortality risk reduction per one cm CC increase), community-dwellers (5.4%), and those living in hospitals (4.8%), respectively (P for meta-regression=0.617). Low credible subgroup difference was found based on the ICEMAN tool.

CONCLUSIONS

Calf circumference is a valid anthropometric measure for mortality risk prediction in a community, nursing home, or hospital.