QUENTIN: reconstruction of disease transmissions from viral quasispecies genomic data

An overview of next generation sequencing strategies and genomics tools used for tuberculosis research

Tuberculosis (TB) is a grave public health concern and is considered the foremost contributor to human mortality resulting from infectious disease. Due to the stringent clonality and extremely restricted genomic diversity, conventional methods prove inefficient for in-depth exploration of minor genomic variations and the evolutionary dynamics operating in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) populations. Until now, the majority of reviews have primarily focused on delineating the application of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in predicting antibiotic resistant genes, surveillance of drug resistance strains, and M.tb lineage classifications. Despite the growing use of next generation sequencing (NGS) and WGS analysis in TB research, there are limited studies that provide a comprehensive summary of there role in studying macroevolution, minor genetic variations, assessing mixed TB infections, and tracking transmission networks at an individual level. This highlights the need for systematic effort to fully explore the potential of WGS and its associated tools in advancing our understanding of TB epidemiology and disease transmission. We delve into the recent bioinformatics pipelines and NGS strategies that leverage various genetic features and simultaneous exploration of host-pathogen protein expression profile to decipher the genetic heterogeneity and host-pathogen interaction dynamics of the M.tb infections. This review highlights the potential benefits and limitations of NGS and bioinformatics tools and discusses their role in TB detection and epidemiology. Overall, this review could be a valuable resource for researchers and clinicians interested in NGS-based approaches in TB research.

Incipient functional SARS-CoV-2 diversification identified through neural network haplotype maps

Since its introduction in the human population, SARS-CoV-2 has evolved into multiple clades, but the events in its intrahost diversification are not well understood. Here, we compare three-dimensional (3D) self-organized neural haplotype maps (SOMs) of SARS-CoV-2 from thirty individual nasopharyngeal diagnostic samples obtained within a 19-day interval in Madrid (Spain), at the time of transition between clades 19 and 20. SOMs have been trained with the haplotype repertoire present in the mutant spectra of the nsp12- and spike (S)-coding regions. Each SOM consisted of a dominant neuron (displaying the maximum frequency), surrounded by a low-frequency neuron cloud. The sequence of the master (dominant) neuron was either identical to that of the reference Wuhan-Hu-1 genome or differed from it at one nucleotide position. Six different deviant haplotype sequences were identified among the master neurons. Some of the substitutions in the neural clouds affected critical sites of the nsp12-nsp8-nsp7 polymerase complex and resulted in altered kinetics of RNA synthesis in an in vitro primer extension assay. Thus, the analysis has identified mutations that are relevant to modification of viral RNA synthesis, present in the mutant clouds of SARS-CoV-2 quasispecies. These mutations most likely occurred during intrahost diversification in several COVID-19 patients, during an initial stage of the pandemic, and within a brief time period.

Inferring bacterial transmission dynamics using deep sequencing genomic surveillance data

Identifying and interrupting transmission chains is important for controlling infectious diseases. One way to identify transmission pairs - two hosts in which infection was transmitted from one to the other - is using the variation of the pathogen within each single host (within-host variation). However, the role of such variation in transmission is understudied due to a lack of experimental and clinical datasets that capture pathogen diversity in both donor and recipient hosts. In this work, we assess the utility of deep-sequenced genomic surveillance (where genomic regions are sequenced hundreds to thousands of times) using a mouse transmission model involving controlled spread of the pathogenic bacterium Citrobacter rodentium from infected to naïve female animals. We observe that within-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) are maintained over multiple transmission steps and present a model for inferring the likelihood that a given pair of sequenced samples are linked by transmission. In this work we show that, beyond the presence and absence of within-host variants, differences arising in the relative abundance of iSNVs (allelic frequency) can infer transmission pairs more precisely. Our approach further highlights the critical role bottlenecks play in reserving the within-host diversity during transmission.

Reconstruction of Viral Variants via Monte Carlo Clustering

Identifying viral variants through clustering is essential for understanding the composition and structure of viral populations within and between hosts, which play a crucial role in disease progression and epidemic spread. This article proposes and validates novel Monte Carlo (MC) methods for clustering aligned viral sequences by minimizing either entropy or Hamming distance from consensuses. We validate these methods on four benchmarks: two SARS-CoV-2 interhost data sets and two HIV intrahost data sets. A parallelized version of our tool is scalable to very large data sets. We show that both entropy and Hamming distance-based MC clusterings discern the meaningful information from sequencing data. The proposed clustering methods consistently converge to similar clusterings across different runs. Finally, we show that MC clustering improves reconstruction of intrahost viral population from sequencing data.

Graph-Based Reconstruction and Analysis of Disease Transmission Networks Using Viral Genomic Data

Understanding the patterns of viral disease transmissions helps establish public health policies and aids in controlling and ending a disease outbreak. Classical methods for studying disease transmission dynamics that rely on epidemiological data, such as times of sample collection and duration of exposure intervals, struggle to provide desired insight due to limited informativeness of such data. A more precise characterization of disease transmissions may be acquired from sequencing data that reveal genetic distance between viral genomes in patient samples. Indeed, genetic distance between viral strains present in hosts contains valuable information about transmission history, thus motivating the design of methods that rely on genomic data to reconstruct a directed disease transmission network, detect transmission clusters, and identify significant network nodes (e.g., super-spreaders). In this article, we present a novel end-to-end framework for the analysis of viral transmissions utilizing viral genomic (sequencing) data. The proposed framework groups infected hosts into transmission clusters based on the reconstructed viral strains infecting them; the genetic distance between a pair of hosts is calculated using Earth Mover's Distance, and further used to infer transmission direction between the hosts. To quantify the significance of a host in the transmission network, the importance score is calculated by a graph convolutional autoencoder. The viral transmission network is represented by a directed minimum spanning tree utilizing the Edmond's algorithm modified to incorporate constraints on the importance scores of the hosts. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for the analysis of viral transmission dynamics in several experiments on semiexperimental as well as experimental data.

Evaluating the potential of whole-genome sequencing for tracing transmission routes in experimental infections and natural outbreaks of bovine respiratory syncytial virus

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is a major cause of respiratory disease in cattle. Genomic sequencing can resolve phylogenetic relationships between virus populations, which can be used to infer transmission routes and potentially inform the design of biosecurity measures. Sequencing of short (<2000 nt) segments of the 15 000-nt BRSV genome has revealed geographic and temporal clustering of BRSV populations, but insufficient variation to distinguish viruses collected from herds infected close together in space and time. This study investigated the potential for whole-genome sequencing to reveal sufficient genomic variation for inferring transmission routes between herds. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were generated from experimental infections and from natural outbreaks in Jämtland and Uppsala counties in Sweden. Sufficient depth of coverage for analysis of consensus and sub-consensus sequence diversity was obtained from 47 to 20 samples respectively. Few (range: 0-6 polymorphisms across the six experiments) consensus-level polymorphisms were observed along experimental transmissions. A much higher level of diversity (146 polymorphic sites) was found among the consensus sequences from the outbreak samples. The majority (144/146) of polymorphisms were between rather than within counties, suggesting that consensus whole-genome sequences show insufficient spatial resolution for inferring direct transmission routes, but might allow identification of outbreak sources at the regional scale. By contrast, within-sample diversity was generally higher in the experimental than the outbreak samples. Analyses to infer known (experimental) and suspected (outbreak) transmission links from within-sample diversity data were uninformative. In conclusion, analysis of the whole-genome sequence of BRSV from experimental samples discriminated between circulating isolates from distant areas, but insufficient diversity was observed between closely related isolates to aid local transmission route inference.

Quasispecies Fitness Partition to Characterize the Molecular Status of a Viral Population. Negative Effect of Early Ribavirin Discontinuation in a Chronically Infected HEV Patient

The changes occurring in viral quasispecies populations during infection have been monitored using diversity indices, nucleotide diversity, and several other indices to summarize the quasispecies structure in a single value. In this study, we present a method to partition quasispecies haplotypes into four fractions according to their fitness: the master haplotype, rare haplotypes at two levels (those present at <0.1%, and those at 0.1−1%), and a fourth fraction that we term emerging haplotypes, present at frequencies >1%, but less than that of the master haplotype. We propose that by determining the changes occurring in the volume of the four quasispecies fitness fractions together with those of the Hill number profile we will be able to visualize and analyze the molecular changes in the composition of a quasispecies with time. To develop this concept, we used three data sets: a technical clone of the complete SARS-CoV-2 spike gene, a subset of data previously used in a study of rare haplotypes, and data from a clinical follow-up study of a patient chronically infected with HEV and treated with ribavirin. The viral response to ribavirin mutagenic treatment was selection of a rich set of synonymous haplotypes. The mutation spectrum was very complex at the nucleotide level, but at the protein (phenotypic/functional) level the pattern differed, showing a highly prevalent master phenotype. We discuss the putative implications of this observation in relation to mutagenic antiviral treatment.

SOPHIE: Viral outbreak investigation and transmission history reconstruction in a joint phylogenetic and network theory framework

Genomic epidemiology is now widely used for viral outbreak investigations. Still, this methodology faces many challenges. First, few methods account for intra-host viral diversity. Second, maximum parsimony principle continues to be employed for phylogenetic inference of transmission histories, even though maximum likelihood or Bayesian models are usually more consistent. Third, many methods utilize case-specific data, such as sampling times or infection exposure intervals. This impedes study of persistent infections in vulnerable groups, where such information has a limited use. Finally, most methods implicitly assume that transmission events are independent, although common source outbreaks violate this assumption. We propose a maximum likelihood framework, SOPHIE, based on the integration of phylogenetic and random graph models. It infers transmission networks from viral phylogenies and expected properties of inter-host social networks modeled as random graphs with given expected degree distributions. SOPHIE is scalable, accounts for intra-host diversity, and accurately infers transmissions without case-specific epidemiological data.

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5-50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

Incorporating Within-Host Diversity in Phylogenetic Analyses for Detecting Clusters of New HIV Diagnoses

Background

Phylogenetic analyses of HIV sequences are used to detect clusters and inform public health interventions. Conventional approaches summarize within-host HIV diversity with a single consensus sequence per host of the pol gene, obtained from Sanger or next-generation sequencing (NGS). There is growing recognition that this approach discards potentially important information about within-host sequence variation, which can impact phylogenetic inference. However, whether alternative summary methods that incorporate intra-host variation impact phylogenetic inference of transmission network features is unknown.

Methods

We introduce profile sampling, a method to incorporate within-host NGS sequence diversity into phylogenetic HIV cluster inference. We compare this approach to Sanger- and NGS-derived pol and near-whole-genome consensus sequences and evaluate its potential benefits in identifying molecular clusters among all newly-HIV-diagnosed individuals over six months at the largest HIV center in Rhode Island.

Results

Profile sampling cluster inference demonstrated that within-host viral diversity impacts phylogenetic inference across individuals, and that consensus sequence approaches can obscure both magnitude and effect of these impacts. Clustering differed between Sanger- and NGS-derived consensus and profile sampling sequences, and across gene regions.

Discussion

Profile sampling can incorporate within-host HIV diversity captured by NGS into phylogenetic analyses. This additional information can improve robustness of cluster detection.

The evolutionary dynamics and epidemiological history of hepatitis C virus genotype 6, including unique strains from the Li community of Hainan Island, China

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a highly diverse pathogen that frequently establishes a chronic long-term infection, but the origins and drivers of HCV diversity in the human population remain unclear. Previously unidentified strains of HCV genotype 6 (gt6) were recently discovered in chronically infected individuals of the Li ethnic group living in Baisha County, Hainan Island, China. The Li community, who were early settlers on Hainan Island, has a distinct host genetic background and cultural identity compared to other ethnic groups on the island and mainland China. In this report, we generated 33 whole virus genome sequences to conduct a comprehensive molecular epidemiological analysis of these novel gt6 strains in the context of gt6 isolates present in Southeast Asia. With the exception of one gt6a isolate, the Li gt6 sequences formed three novel clades from two lineages which constituted 3 newly assigned gt6 subtypes and 30 unassigned strains. Using Bayesian inference methods, we dated the most recent common ancestor for all available gt6 whole virus genome sequences to approximately 2767 bce (95 per cent highest posterior density (HPD) intervals, 3670-1397 bce), which is far earlier than previous estimates. The substitution rate was 1.20 × 10-4 substitutions/site/year (s/s/y), and this rate varied across the genome regions, from 1.02 × 10-5 s/s/y in the 5'untranslated region (UTR) region to 3.07 × 10-4 s/s/y in E2. Thus, our study on an isolated ethnic minority group within a small geographical area of Hainan Island has substantially increased the known diversity of HCV gt6, already acknowledged as the most diverse HCV genotype. The extant HCV gt6 sequences from this study were probably transmitted to the Li through at least three independent events dating perhaps from around 4,000 years ago. This analysis describes deeper insight into basic aspects of HCV gt6 molecular evolution including the extensive diversity of gt6 sequences in the isolated Li ethnic group.

Primary case inference in viral outbreaks through analysis of intra-host variant population

Background

Investigation of outbreaks to identify the primary case is crucial for the interruption and prevention of transmission of infectious diseases. These individuals may have a higher risk of participating in near future transmission events when compared to the other patients in the outbreak, so directing more transmission prevention resources towards these individuals is a priority. Although the genetic characterization of intra-host viral populations can aid the identification of transmission clusters, it is not trivial to determine the directionality of transmissions during outbreaks, owing to complexity of viral evolution. Here, we present a new computational framework, PYCIVO: primary case inference in viral outbreaks. This framework expands upon our earlier work in development of QUENTIN, which builds a probabilistic disease transmission tree based on simulation of evolution of intra-host hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants between cases involved in direct transmission during an outbreak. PYCIVO improves upon QUENTIN by also adding a custom heterogeneity index and identifying the scenario when the primary case may have not been sampled.

Results

These approaches were validated using a set of 105 sequence samples from 11 distinct HCV transmission clusters identified during outbreak investigations, in which the primary case was epidemiologically verified. Both models can detect the correct primary case in 9 out of 11 transmission clusters (81.8%). However, while QUENTIN issues erroneous predictions on the remaining 2 transmission clusters, PYCIVO issues a null output for these clusters, giving it an effective prediction accuracy of 100%. To further evaluate accuracy of the inference, we created 10 modified transmission clusters in which the primary case had been removed. In this scenario, PYCIVO was able to correctly identify that there was no primary case in 8/10 (80%) of these modified clusters. This model was validated with HCV; however, this approach may be applicable to other microbial pathogens.

Conclusions

PYCIVO improves upon QUENTIN by also implementing a custom heterogeneity index which empowers PYCIVO to make the important ‘No primary case’ prediction. One or more samples, possibly including the primary case, may have not been sampled, and this designation is meant to account for these scenarios.

TNet: Transmission Network Inference Using Within-Host Strain Diversity and its Application to Geographical Tracking of COVID-19 Spread

The inference of disease transmission networks is an important problem in epidemiology. One popular approach for building transmission networks is to reconstruct a phylogenetic tree using sequences from disease strains sampled from infected hosts and infer transmissions based on this tree. However, most existing phylogenetic approaches for transmission network inference are highly computationally intensive and cannot take within-host strain diversity into account. Here, we introduce a new phylogenetic approach for inferring transmission networks, TNet, that addresses these limitations. TNet uses multiple strain sequences from each sampled host to infer transmissions and is simpler and more accurate than existing approaches. Furthermore, TNet is highly scalable and able to distinguish between ambiguous and unambiguous transmission inferences. We evaluated TNet on a large collection of 560 simulated transmission networks of various sizes and diverse host, sequence, and transmission characteristics, as well as on 10 real transmission datasets with known transmission histories. Our results show that TNet outperforms two other recently developed methods, phyloscanner and SharpTNI, that also consider within-host strain diversity. We also applied TNet to a large collection of SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled from infected individuals in many countries around the world, demonstrating how our inference framework can be adapted to accurately infer geographical transmission networks. TNet is freely available from https://compbio.engr.uconn.edu/software/TNet/.

Bacterial genomic epidemiology with mixed samples

Genomic epidemiology is a tool for tracing transmission of pathogens based on whole-genome sequencing. We introduce the mGEMS pipeline for genomic epidemiology with plate sweeps representing mixed samples of a target pathogen, opening the possibility to sequence all colonies on selective plates with a single DNA extraction and sequencing step. The pipeline includes the novel mGEMS read binner for probabilistic assignments of sequencing reads, and the scalable pseudoaligner Themisto. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using closely related samples in a nosocomial setting, obtaining results that are comparable to those based on single-colony picks. Our results lend firm support to more widespread consideration of genomic epidemiology with mixed infection samples.

Historical Perspective on the Discovery of the Quasispecies Concept

Viral quasispecies are dynamic distributions of nonidentical but closely related mutant and recombinant viral genomes subjected to a continuous process of genetic variation, competition, and selection that may act as a unit of selection. The quasispecies concept owes its theoretical origins to a model for the origin of life as a collection of mutant RNA replicators. Independently, experimental evidence for the quasispecies concept was obtained from sampling of bacteriophage clones, which revealed that the viral populations consisted of many mutant genomes whose frequency varied with time of replication. Similar findings were made in animal and plant RNA viruses. Quasispecies became a theoretical framework to understand viral population dynamics and adaptability. The evidence came at a time when mutations were considered rare events in genetics, a perception that was to change dramatically in subsequent decades. Indeed, viral quasispecies was the conceptual forefront of a remarkable degree of biological diversity, now evident for cell populations and organisms, not only for viruses. Quasispecies dynamics unveiled complexities in the behavior of viral populations,with consequences for disease mechanisms and control strategies. This review addresses the origin of the quasispecies concept, its major implications on both viral evolution and antiviral strategies, and current and future prospects.

Scale-Free Spanning Trees and Their Application in Genomic Epidemiology

We study the algorithmic problem of finding the most “scale-free-like” spanning tree of a connected graph. This problem is motivated by the fundamental problem of genomic epidemiology: given viral genomes sampled from infected individuals, reconstruct the transmission network (“who infected whom”). We use two possible objective functions for this problem and introduce the corresponding algorithmic problems termedm-SF (-scale free) ands-SF Spanning Tree problems. We prove that those problems are APX- and NP-hard, respectively, even in the classes of cubic and bipartite graphs. We propose two integer linear programming (ILP) formulations for thes-SF Spanning Tree problem, and experimentally assess its performance using simulated and experimental data. In particular, we demonstrate that the ILP-based approach allows for accurate reconstruction of transmission histories of several hepatitis C outbreaks.

Precision Tracing of Household Dengue Spread Using Inter- and Intra-Host Viral Variation Data, Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Dengue control approaches are best informed by granular spatial epidemiology of these viruses, yet reconstruction of inter- and intra-household transmissions is limited when analyzing case count, serologic, or genomic consensus sequence data. To determine viral spread on a finer spatial scale, we extended phylogenomic discrete trait analyses to reconstructions of house-to-house transmissions within a prospective cluster study in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. For additional resolution and transmission confirmation, we mapped dengue intra-host single nucleotide variants on the taxa of these time-scaled phylogenies. This approach confirmed 19 household transmissions and revealed that dengue disperses an average of 70 m per day between households in these communities. We describe an evolutionary biology framework for the resolution of dengue transmissions that cannot be differentiated based on epidemiologic and consensus genome data alone. This framework can be used as a public health tool to inform control approaches and enable precise tracing of dengue transmissions.

Accurate assembly of minority viral haplotypes from next-generation sequencing through efficient noise reduction

Rapidly evolving RNA viruses continuously produce minority haplotypes that can become dominant if they are drug-resistant or can better evade the immune system. Therefore, early detection and identification of minority viral haplotypes may help to promptly adjust the patient’s treatment plan preventing potential disease complications. Minority haplotypes can be identified using next-generation sequencing, but sequencing noise hinders accurate identification. The elimination of sequencing noise is a non-trivial task that still remains open. Here we propose CliqueSNV based on extracting pairs of statistically linked mutations from noisy reads. This effectively reduces sequencing noise and enables identifying minority haplotypes with the frequency below the sequencing error rate. We comparatively assess the performance of CliqueSNV using an in vitro mixture of nine haplotypes that were derived from the mutation profile of an existing HIV patient. We show that CliqueSNV can accurately assemble viral haplotypes with frequencies as low as 0.1% and maintains consistent performance across short and long bases sequencing platforms.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified viral load as a critical factor in variant identification. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

VERSO: A comprehensive framework for the inference of robust phylogenies and the quantification of intra-host genomic diversity of viral samples

We introduce VERSO, a two-step framework for the characterization of viral evolution from sequencing data of viral genomes, which is an improvement on phylogenomic approaches for consensus sequences. VERSO exploits an efficient algorithmic strategy to return robust phylogenies from clonal variant profiles, also in conditions of sampling limitations. It then leverages variant frequency patterns to characterize the intra-host genomic diversity of samples, revealing undetected infection chains and pinpointing variants likely involved in homoplasies. On simulations, VERSO outperforms state-of-the-art tools for phylogenetic inference. Notably, the application to 6,726 amplicon and RNA sequencing samples refines the estimation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution, while co-occurrence patterns of minor variants unveil undetected infection paths, which are validated with contact tracing data. Finally, the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutational landscape uncovers a temporal increase of overall genomic diversity and highlights variants transiting from minor to clonal state and homoplastic variants, some of which fall on the spike gene. Available at: https://github.com/BIMIB-DISCo/VERSO.

Next Generation Sequencing and Bioinformatics Methodologies for Infectious Disease Research and Public Health: Approaches, Applications, and Considerations for Development of Laboratory Capacity

Next generation sequencing (NGS) combined with bioinformatics has successfully been used in a vast array of analyses for infectious disease research of public health relevance. For instance, NGS and bioinformatics approaches have been used to identify outbreak origins, track transmissions, investigate epidemic dynamics, determine etiological agents of a disease, and discover novel human pathogens. However, implementation of high-quality NGS and bioinformatics in research and public health laboratories can be challenging. These challenges mainly include the choice of the sequencing platform and the sequencing approach, the choice of bioinformatics methodologies, access to the appropriate computation and information technology infrastructure, and recruiting and retaining personnel with the specialized skills and experience in this field. In this review, we summarize the most common NGS and bioinformatics workflows in the context of infectious disease genomic surveillance and pathogen discovery, and highlight the main challenges and considerations for setting up an NGS and bioinformatics-focused infectious disease research public health laboratory. We describe the most commonly used sequencing platforms and review their strengths and weaknesses. We review sequencing approaches that have been used for various pathogens and study questions, as well as the most common difficulties associated with these approaches that should be considered when implementing in a public health or research setting. In addition, we provide a review of some common bioinformatics tools and procedures used for pathogen discovery and genome assembly, along with the most common challenges and solutions. Finally, we summarize the bioinformatics of advanced viral, bacterial, and parasite pathogen characterization, including types of study questions that can be answered when utilizing NGS and bioinformatics.

Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity within infected hosts can provide insight into the generation and spread of new viral variants and may enable high resolution inference of transmission chains. However, little is known about temporal aspects of SARS-CoV-2 intrahost diversity and the extent to which shared diversity reflects convergent evolution as opposed to transmission linkage. Here we use high depth of coverage sequencing to identify within-host genetic variants in 325 specimens from hospitalized COVID-19 patients and infected employees at a single medical center. We validated our variant calling by sequencing defined RNA mixtures and identified a viral load threshold that minimizes false positives. By leveraging clinical metadata, we found that intrahost diversity is low and does not vary by time from symptom onset. This suggests that variants will only rarely rise to appreciable frequency prior to transmission. Although there was generally little shared variation across the sequenced cohort, we identified intrahost variants shared across individuals who were unlikely to be related by transmission. These variants did not precede a rise in frequency in global consensus genomes, suggesting that intrahost variants may have limited utility for predicting future lineages. These results provide important context for sequence-based inference in SARS-CoV-2 evolution and epidemiology.

Epidemiological data analysis of viral quasispecies in the next-generation sequencing era

The unprecedented coverage offered by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology has facilitated the assessment of the population complexity of intra-host RNA viral populations at an unprecedented level of detail. Consequently, analysis of NGS datasets could be used to extract and infer crucial epidemiological and biomedical information on the levels of both infected individuals and susceptible populations, thus enabling the development of more effective prevention strategies and antiviral therapeutics. Such information includes drug resistance, infection stage, transmission clusters and structures of transmission networks. However, NGS data require sophisticated analysis dealing with millions of error-prone short reads per patient. Prior to the NGS era, epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses were geared toward Sanger sequencing technology; now, they must be redesigned to handle the large-scale NGS datasets and properly model the evolution of heterogeneous rapidly mutating viral populations. Additionally, dedicated epidemiological surveillance systems require big data analytics to handle millions of reads obtained from thousands of patients for rapid outbreak investigation and management. We survey bioinformatics tools analyzing NGS data for (i) characterization of intra-host viral population complexity including single nucleotide variant and haplotype calling; (ii) downstream epidemiological analysis and inference of drug-resistant mutations, age of infection and linkage between patients; and (iii) data collection and analytics in surveillance systems for fast response and control of outbreaks.

Analysis of heterogeneous genomic samples using image normalization and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Analysis of heterogeneous populations such as viral quasispecies is one of the most challenging bioinformatics problems. Although machine learning models are becoming to be widely employed for analysis of sequence data from such populations, their straightforward application is impeded by multiple challenges associated with technological limitations and biases, difficulty of selection of relevant features and need to compare genomic datasets of different sizes and structures.

RESULTS

We propose a novel preprocessing approach to transform irregular genomic data into normalized image data. Such representation allows to restate the problems of classification and comparison of heterogeneous populations as image classification problems which can be solved using variety of available machine learning tools. We then apply the proposed approach to two important problems in molecular epidemiology: inference of viral infection stage and detection of viral transmission clusters using next-generation sequencing data. The infection staging method has been applied to HCV HVR1 samples collected from 108 recently and 257 chronically infected individuals. The SVM-based image classification approach achieved more than 95% accuracy for both recently and chronically HCV-infected individuals. Clustering has been performed on the data collected from 33 epidemiologically curated outbreaks, yielding more than 97% accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Sequence image normalization method allows for a robust conversion of genomic data into numerical data and overcomes several issues associated with employing machine learning methods to viral populations. Image data also help in the visualization of genomic data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can be successfully applied to different problems in molecular epidemiology and surveillance of viral diseases. Simple binary classifiers and clustering techniques applied to the image data are equally or more accurate than other models.

Dissimilar Conservation Pattern in Hepatitis C Virus Mutant Spectra, Consensus Sequences, and Data Banks

The influence of quasispecies dynamics on long-term virus diversification in nature is a largely unexplored question. Specifically, whether intra-host nucleotide and amino acid variation in quasispecies fit the variation observed in consensus sequences or data bank alignments is unknown. Genome conservation and dynamics simulations are used for the computational design of universal vaccines, therapeutic antibodies and pan-genomic antiviral agents. The expectation is that selection of escape mutants will be limited when mutations at conserved residues are required. This strategy assumes long-term (epidemiologically relevant) conservation but, critically, does not consider short-term (quasispecies-dictated) residue conservation. We calculated mutant frequencies of individual loci from mutant spectra of hepatitis C virus (HCV) populations passaged in cell culture and from infected patients. Nucleotide or amino acid conservation in consensus sequences of the same populations, or in the Los Alamos HCV data bank did not match residue conservation in mutant spectra. The results relativize the concept of sequence conservation in viral genetics and suggest that residue invariance in data banks is an insufficient basis for the design of universal viral ligands for clinical purposes. Our calculations suggest relaxed mutational restrictions during quasispecies dynamics, which may contribute to higher calculated short-term than long-term viral evolutionary rates.

Inferring epidemiological links from deep sequencing data: a statistical learning approach for human, animal and plant diseases

Pathogen sequence data have been exploited to infer who infected whom, by using empirical and model-based approaches. Most of these approaches exploit one pathogen sequence per infected host (e.g. individual, household, field). However, modern sequencing techniques can reveal the polymorphic nature of within-host populations of pathogens. Thus, these techniques provide a subsample of the pathogen variants that were present in the host at the sampling time. Such data are expected to give more insight on epidemiological links than a single sequence per host. In general, a mechanistic viewpoint to transmission and micro-evolution has been followed to infer epidemiological links from these data. Here, we investigate an alternative approach grounded on statistical learning. The idea consists of learning the structure of epidemiological links with a pseudo-evolutionary model applied to training data obtained from contact tracing, for example, and using this initial stage to infer links for the whole dataset. Such an approach has the potential to be particularly valuable in the case of a risk of erroneous mechanistic assumptions, it is sufficiently parsimonious to allow the handling of big datasets in the future, and it is versatile enough to be applied to very different contexts from animal, human and plant epidemiology.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Phylogenetics in HIV transmission: taking within-host diversity into account

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Within-host diversity complicates transmission models because it recognizes that between-host virus phylogenies are not identical to the transmission history among the infected hosts. This review presents the biological and theoretical foundations for recent development in this field, and shows that modern phylodynamic methods are capable of inferring realistic transmission histories from HIV sequence data.

RECENT FINDINGS

Transmission of single or multiple genetic variants from a donor's HIV population results in donor-recipient phylogenies with combinations of monophyletic, paraphyletic, and polyphyletic patterns. Large-scale simulations and analyses of many real HIV datasets have established that transmission direction, directness, or common source often can be inferred based on HIV sequence data. Phylodynamic reconstruction of HIV transmissions that include within-host HIV diversity have recently been established and made available in several software packages.

SUMMARY

Phylodynamic methods that include realistic features of HIV genetic diversification have come of age, significantly improving inference of key epidemiological parameters. This opens the door to more accurate surveillance and better-informed prevention campaigns.

Phylogenetic and Demographic Characterization of Directed HIV-1 Transmission Using Deep Sequences from High-Risk and General Population Cohorts/Groups in Uganda

Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations with elevated HIV-1 incidence and/or prevalence have been identified, but their contribution to disease spread remains unclear. We performed viral deep-sequence phylogenetic analyses to quantify transmission dynamics between the general population (GP), fisherfolk communities (FF), and women at high risk of infection and their clients (WHR) in central and southwestern Uganda. Between August 2014 and August 2017, 6185 HIV-1 positive individuals were enrolled in 3 GP and 10 FF communities, 3 WHR enrollment sites. A total of 2531 antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve participants with plasma viral load >1000 copies/mL were deep-sequenced. One hundred and twenty-three transmission networks were reconstructed, including 105 phylogenetically highly supported source–recipient pairs. Only one pair involved a WHR and male participant, suggesting that improved population sampling is needed to assess empirically the role of WHR to the transmission dynamics. More transmissions were observed from the GP communities to FF communities than vice versa, with an estimated flow ratio of 1.56 (95% CrI 0.68–3.72), indicating that fishing communities on Lake Victoria are not a net source of transmission flow to neighboring communities further inland. Men contributed disproportionally to HIV-1 transmission flow regardless of age, suggesting that prevention efforts need to better aid men to engage with and stay in care.

StrainHub: a phylogenetic tool to construct pathogen transmission networks

SUMMARY

In exploring the epidemiology of infectious diseases, networks have been used to reconstruct contacts among individuals and/or populations. Summarizing networks using pathogen metadata (e.g. host species and place of isolation) and a phylogenetic tree is a nascent, alternative approach. In this paper, we introduce a tool for reconstructing transmission networks in arbitrary space from phylogenetic information and metadata. Our goals are to provide a means of deriving new insights and infection control strategies based on the dynamics of the pathogen lineages derived from networks and centrality metrics. We created a web-based application, called StrainHub, in which a user can input a phylogenetic tree based on genetic or other data along with characters derived from metadata using their preferred tree search method. StrainHub generates a transmission network based on character state changes in metadata, such as place or source of isolation, mapped on the phylogenetic tree. The user has the option to calculate centrality metrics on the nodes including betweenness, closeness, degree and a new metric, the source/hub ratio. The outputs include the network with values for metrics on its nodes and the tree with characters reconstructed. All of these results can be exported for further analysis.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

strainhub.io and https://github.com/abschneider/StrainHub.

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) for the analysis of viral populations

The development of High-Throughput Sequencing (HTS) technologies is having a major impact on the genomic analysis of viral populations. Current HTS platforms can capture nucleic acid variation across millions of genes for both selected amplicons and full viral genomes. HTS has already facilitated the discovery of new viruses, hinted new taxonomic classifications and provided a deeper and broader understanding of their diversity, population and genetic structure. Hence, HTS has already replaced standard Sanger sequencing in basic and applied research fields, but the next step is its implementation as a routine technology for the analysis of viruses in clinical settings. The most likely application of this implementation will be the analysis of viral genomics, because the huge population sizes, high mutation rates and very fast replacement of viral populations have demonstrated the limited information obtained with Sanger technology. In this review, we describe new technologies and provide guidelines for the high-throughput sequencing and genetic and evolutionary analyses of viral populations and metaviromes, including software applications. With the development of new HTS technologies, new and refurbished molecular and bioinformatic tools are also constantly being developed to process and integrate HTS data. These allow assembling viral genomes and inferring viral population diversity and dynamics. Finally, we also present several applications of these approaches to the analysis of viral clinical samples including transmission clusters and outbreak characterization.

Applications of Next-Generation Sequencing Technologies and Computational Tools in Molecular Evolution and Aquatic Animals Conservation Studies: A Short Review

Aquatic ecosystems that form major biodiversity hotspots are critically threatened due to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. We believe that, in this genomic era, computational methods can be applied to promote aquatic biodiversity conservation by addressing questions related to the evolutionary history of aquatic organisms at the molecular level. However, huge amounts of genomics data generated can only be discerned through the use of bioinformatics. Here, we examine the applications of next-generation sequencing technologies and bioinformatics tools to study the molecular evolution of aquatic animals and discuss the current challenges and future perspectives of using bioinformatics toward aquatic animal conservation efforts.

Viral quasispecies

Viral quasispecies refers to a population structure that consists of extremely large numbers of variant genomes, termed mutant spectra, mutant swarms or mutant clouds. Fueled by high mutation rates, mutants arise continually, and they change in relative frequency as viral replication proceeds. The term quasispecies was adopted from a theory of the origin of life in which primitive replicons) consisted of mutant distributions, as found experimentally with present day RNA viruses. The theory provided a new definition of wild type, and a conceptual framework for the interpretation of the adaptive potential of RNA viruses that contrasted with classical studies based on consensus sequences. Standard clonal analyses and deep sequencing methodologies have confirmed the presence of myriads of mutant genomes in viral populations, and their participation in adaptive processes. The quasispecies concept applies to any biological entity, but its impact is more evident when the genome size is limited and the mutation rate is high. This is the case of the RNA viruses, ubiquitous in our biosphere, and that comprise many important pathogens. In virology, quasispecies are defined as complex distributions of closely related variant genomes subjected to genetic variation, competition and selection, and that may act as a unit of selection. Despite being an integral part of their replication, high mutation rates have an upper limit compatible with inheritable information. Crossing such a limit leads to RNA virus extinction, a transition that is the basis of an antiviral design termed lethal mutagenesis.

Transmission Trees on a Known Pathogen Phylogeny: Enumeration and Sampling

One approach to the reconstruction of infectious disease transmission trees from pathogen genomic data has been to use a phylogenetic tree, reconstructed from pathogen sequences, and annotate its internal nodes to provide a reconstruction of which host each lineage was in at each point in time. If only one pathogen lineage can be transmitted to a new host (i.e., the transmission bottleneck is complete), this corresponds to partitioning the nodes of the phylogeny into connected regions, each of which represents evolution in an individual host. These partitions define the possible transmission trees that are consistent with a given phylogenetic tree. However, the mathematical properties of the transmission trees given a phylogeny remain largely unexplored. Here, we describe a procedure to calculate the number of possible transmission trees for a given phylogeny, and we then show how to uniformly sample from these transmission trees. The procedure is outlined for situations where one sample is available from each host and trees do not have branch lengths, and we also provide extensions for incomplete sampling, multiple sampling, and the application to time trees in a situation where limits on the period during which each host could have been infected and infectious are known. The sampling algorithm is available as an R package (STraTUS).

Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis

To prevent new infections with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS recommends targeting interventions to populations that are at high risk of acquiring and passing on the virus. Yet it is often unclear who and where these 'source' populations are. Here we demonstrate how viral deep-sequencing can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks. We are able to deep-sequence virus from a large population-based sample of infected individuals in Rakai District, Uganda, reconstruct partial transmission networks, and infer the direction of transmission within them at an estimated error rate of 16.3% [8.8-28.3%]. With this error rate, deep-sequence phylogenetics cannot be used against individuals in legal contexts, but is sufficiently low for population-level inferences into the sources of epidemic spread. The technique presents new opportunities for characterizing source populations and for targeting of HIV-1 prevention interventions in Africa.

Fast estimation of genetic relatedness between members of heterogeneous populations of closely related genomic variants

Background

Many biological analysis tasks require extraction of families of genetically similar sequences from large datasets produced by Next-generation Sequencing (NGS). Such tasks include detection of viral transmissions by analysis of all genetically close pairs of sequences from viral datasets sampled from infected individuals or studying of evolution of viruses or immune repertoires by analysis of network of intra-host viral variants or antibody clonotypes formed by genetically close sequences. The most obvious naïeve algorithms to extract such sequence families are impractical in light of the massive size of modern NGS datasets.

Results

In this paper, we present fast and scalable k-mer-based framework to perform such sequence similarity queries efficiently, which specifically targets data produced by deep sequencing of heterogeneous populations such as viruses. It shows better filtering quality and time performance when comparing to other tools. The tool is freely available for download at https://github.com/vyacheslav-tsivina/signature-sj

Conclusion

The proposed tool allows for efficient detection of genetic relatedness between genomic samples produced by deep sequencing of heterogeneous populations. It should be especially useful for analysis of relatedness of genomes of viruses with unevenly distributed variable genomic regions, such as HIV and HCV. For the future we envision, that besides applications in molecular epidemiology the tool can also be adapted to immunosequencing and metagenomics data.

Bayesian reconstruction of transmission within outbreaks using genomic variants

Pathogen genome sequencing can reveal details of transmission histories and is a powerful tool in the fight against infectious disease. In particular, within-host pathogen genomic variants identified through heterozygous nucleotide base calls are a potential source of information to identify linked cases and infer direction and time of transmission. However, using such data effectively to model disease transmission presents a number of challenges, including differentiating genuine variants from those observed due to sequencing error, as well as the specification of a realistic model for within-host pathogen population dynamics. Here we propose a new Bayesian approach to transmission inference, BadTrIP (BAyesian epiDemiological TRansmission Inference from Polymorphisms), that explicitly models evolution of pathogen populations in an outbreak, transmission (including transmission bottlenecks), and sequencing error. BadTrIP enables the inference of host-to-host transmission from pathogen sequencing data and epidemiological data. By assuming that genomic variants are unlinked, our method does not require the computationally intensive and unreliable reconstruction of individual haplotypes. Using simulations we show that BadTrIP is robust in most scenarios and can accurately infer transmission events by efficiently combining information from genetic and epidemiological sources; thanks to its realistic model of pathogen evolution and the inclusion of epidemiological data, BadTrIP is also more accurate than existing approaches. BadTrIP is distributed as an open source package (https://bitbucket.org/nicofmay/badtrip) for the phylogenetic software BEAST2. We apply our method to reconstruct transmission history at the early stages of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, showcasing the power of within-host genomic variants to reconstruct transmission events.

We present a new tool to reconstruct transmission events within outbreaks. Our approach makes use of pathogen genetic information, notably genetic variants at low frequency within host that are usually discarded, and combines it with epidemiological information of host exposure to infection. This leads to accurate reconstruction of transmission even in cases where abundant within-host pathogen genetic variation and weak transmission bottlenecks (multiple pathogen units colonising a new host at transmission) would otherwise make inference difficult due to the transmission history differing from the pathogen evolution history inferred from pathogen isolets. Also, the use of within-host pathogen genomic variants increases the resolution of the reconstruction of the transmission tree even in scenarios with limited within-outbreak pathogen genetic diversity: within-host pathogen populations that appear identical at the level of consensus sequences can be discriminated using within-host variants. Our Bayesian approach provides a measure of the confidence in different possible transmission histories, and is published as open source software. We show with simulations and with an analysis of the beginning of the 2014 Ebola outbreak that our approach is applicable in many scenarios, improves our understanding of transmission dynamics, and will contribute to finding and limiting sources and routes of transmission, and therefore preventing the spread of infectious disease.