The case against delaying SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine boosting doses

Waning immunity drives respiratory virus evolution and reinfection

Reinfections with respiratory viruses such as influenza viruses and coronaviruses are thought to be driven by ongoing antigenic immune escape in the viral population. However, this does not explain why antigenic variation is frequently observed in these viruses relative to viruses such as measles that undergo systemic replication. Here, we suggest that the rapid rate of waning immunity in the respiratory tract is the key driver of antigenic evolution in respiratory viruses. Waning immunity results in hosts with immunity levels that protect against homologous reinfection but are insufficient to protect against infection with a heterologous, antigenically different strain. As such, when partially immune hosts are present at a high enough density, an immune escape variant can invade the viral population even though that variant cannot infect fully immune hosts. Invasion can occur even when the variant's immune escape mutation incurs a fitness cost, and we expect the expanding mutant population will evolve compensatory mutations that mitigate this cost. Thus the mutant lineage should replace the wild-type, and as immunity to it builds, the process will repeat. Our model provides a new explanation for the pattern of successive emergence and replacement of antigenic variants that has been observed in many respiratory viruses. We discuss our model relative to others for understanding the drivers of antigenic evolution in these and other respiratory viruses.

Which vaccination strategy against COVID-19?

BACKGROUND

Bottlenecks in the production and supply pipeline of vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 have led some countries to consider the option of dose-sparing strategies (e.g., increasing the number of people who receive some vaccine by halving the dose or increasing the interval between doses). In this study we assess the contribution of vaccination strategies to reducing the mortality induced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

METHODS

This study focuses on the evolution of the pandemic and related vaccination efforts in five countries that have adopted different vaccination strategies or have experienced a bottleneck in their vaccine supply. The analysis is conducted using an autoregressive time-series approach through a system of simultaneous equations.

RESULTS

The outcome of the early months of the vaccination campaign in containing the number of deaths induced by the epidemic varies across our sample. Overall, our results highlight the effective role played by the vaccine in containing the death toll induced by the epidemic. We could not find evidence of reduced effectiveness of the second dose in the presence of an extended inter-dose interval. The effectiveness of the vaccination campaign results appears to be strongly affected by the stability of vaccine supply.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccine is effective in containing the deaths caused by the virus, particularly when multiple doses have been administered. The stability of the vaccine pipeline plays a critical role in determining the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions and the emergence of pathogen variants

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing and contact tracing, are important public health measures that can reduce pathogen transmission. In addition to playing a crucial role in suppressing transmission, NPIs influence pathogen evolution by mediating mutation supply, restricting the availability of susceptible hosts, and altering the strength of selection for novel variants. Yet it is unclear how NPIs might affect the emergence of novel variants that are able to escape pre-existing immunity (partially or fully), are more transmissible or cause greater mortality. We analyse a stochastic two-strain epidemiological model to determine how the strength and timing of NPIs affect the emergence of variants with similar or contrasting life-history characteristics to the wild type. We show that, while stronger and timelier NPIs generally reduce the likelihood of variant emergence, it is possible for more transmissible variants with high cross-immunity to have a greater probability of emerging at intermediate levels of NPIs. This is because intermediate levels of NPIs allow an epidemic of the wild type that is neither too small (facilitating high mutation supply), nor too large (leaving a large pool of susceptible hosts), to prevent a novel variant from becoming established in the host population. However, since one cannot predict the characteristics of a variant, the best strategy to prevent emergence is likely to be an implementation of strong, timely NPIs.

COVID-19 vaccination challenges: A mini-review

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has led to the infection of many people across the globe, over six million deaths, and has placed an unprecedented burden on public health worldwide. The pandemic has led to the high-speed development and production of vaccines against the COVID-19, as vaccines can end the pandemic. At the beginning of the program, vaccinations were initially targeted only at high-risk groups, such as the elderly, those with comorbidities, or healthcare workers. Although most of the mentioned populations have received the two recommended doses, limited resources have left many authorities with an effective vaccine undersupply. Therefore, policies have been implemented to manage the available doses of the vaccines more efficiently. As there is no universally agreed consensus on this topic, we discuss the different recommendations and guidelines regarding the time interval between the two vaccine doses and explain the different scenarios for applying the two doses.

Evolutionary Pattern Comparisons of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Countries/Regions with High and Low Vaccine Coverage

It has been argued that vaccine-breakthrough infections of SARS-CoV-2 would likely accelerate the emergence of novel variants with immune evasion. This study explored the evolutionary patterns of the Delta variant in countries/regions with relatively high and low vaccine coverage based on large-scale sequences. Our results showed that (i) the sequences were grouped into two clusters (L and R); the R cluster was dominant, its proportion increased over time and was higher in the high-vaccine-coverage areas; (ii) genetic diversities in the countries/regions with low vaccine coverage were higher than those in the ones with high vaccine coverage; (iii) unique mutations and co-mutations were detected in different countries/regions; in particular, common co-mutations were exhibited in highly occurring frequencies in the areas with high vaccine coverage and presented in increasing frequencies over time in the areas with low vaccine coverage; (iv) five sites on the S protein were under strong positive selection in different countries/regions, with three in non-C to U sites (I95T, G142D and T950N), and the occurring frequencies of I95T in high vaccine coverage areas were higher, while G142D and T950N were potentially immune-pressure-selected sites; and (v) mutation at the N⁶-methyladenosine site 4 on ORF7a (C27527T, P45L) was detected and might be caused by immune pressure. Our study suggested that certain variation differences existed between countries/regions with high and low vaccine coverage, but they were not likely caused by host immune pressure. We inferred that no extra immune pressures on SARS-CoV-2 were generated with high vaccine coverage, and we suggest promoting and strengthening the uptake of the COVID-19 vaccine worldwide, especially in less developed areas.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals: measurement, causes and impact

Breakthrough infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fully vaccinated individuals are receiving intense scrutiny because of their importance in determining how long restrictions to control virus transmission will need to remain in place in highly vaccinated populations as well as in determining the need for additional vaccine doses or changes to the vaccine formulations and/or dosing intervals. Measurement of breakthrough infections is challenging outside of randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind field trials. However, laboratory and observational studies are necessary to understand the impact of waning immunity, viral variants and other determinants of changing vaccine effectiveness against various levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Here, we describe the approaches being used to measure vaccine effectiveness and provide a synthesis of the burgeoning literature on the determinants of vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough rates. We argue that, rather than trying to tease apart the contributions of factors such as age, viral variants and time since vaccination, the rates of breakthrough infection are best seen as a consequence of the level of immunity at any moment in an individual, the variant to which that individual is exposed and the severity of disease being considered. We also address key open questions concerning the transition to endemicity, the potential need for altered vaccine formulations to track viral variants, the need to identify immune correlates of protection, and the public health challenges of using various tools to counter breakthrough infections, including boosters in an era of global vaccine shortages.

Highly Specific Memory B Cells Generation after the 2nd Dose of BNT162b2 Vaccine Compensate for the Decline of Serum Antibodies and Absence of Mucosal IgA

Specific memory B cells and antibodies are a reliable read-out of vaccine efficacy. We analysed these biomarkers after one and two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine. The second dose significantly increases the level of highly specific memory B cells and antibodies. Two months after the second dose, specific antibody levels decline, but highly specific memory B cells continue to increase, thus predicting a sustained protection from COVID-19. We show that although mucosal IgA is not induced by the vaccination, memory B cells migrate in response to inflammation and secrete IgA at mucosal sites. We show that the first vaccine dose may lead to an insufficient number of highly specific memory B cells and low concentration of serum antibodies, thus leaving vaccinees without the immune robustness needed to ensure viral elimination and herd immunity. We also clarify that the reduction of serum antibodies does not diminish the force and duration of the immune protection induced by vaccination. The vaccine does not induce sterilizing immunity. Infection after vaccination may be caused by the lack of local preventive immunity because of the absence of mucosal IgA.

Optimized delay of the second COVID-19 vaccine dose reduces ICU admissions

Slower than anticipated, COVID-19 vaccine production and distribution have impaired efforts to curtail the current pandemic. The standard administration schedule for most COVID-19 vaccines currently approved is two doses administered 3 to 4 wk apart. To increase the number of individuals with partial protection, some governments are considering delaying the second vaccine dose. However, the delay duration must take into account crucial factors, such as the degree of protection conferred by a single dose, the anticipated vaccine supply pipeline, and the potential emergence of more virulent COVID-19 variants. To help guide decision-making, we propose here an optimization model based on extended susceptible, exposed, infectious, and removed (SEIR) dynamics that determines the optimal delay duration between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses. The model assumes lenient social distancing and uses intensive care unit (ICU) admission as a key metric while selecting the optimal duration between doses vs. the standard 4-wk delay. While epistemic uncertainties apply to the interpretation of simulation outputs, we found that the delay is dependent on the vaccine mechanism of action and first-dose efficacy. For infection-blocking vaccines with first-dose efficacy ≥50%, the model predicts that the second dose can be delayed by ≥8 wk (half of the maximal delay), whereas for symptom-alleviating vaccines, the same delay is recommended only if the first-dose efficacy is ≥70%. Our model predicts that a 12-wk second-dose delay of an infection-blocking vaccine with a first-dose efficacy ≥70% could reduce ICU admissions by 400 people per million over 200 d.

Impact of Previous Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Immune Response After a Single Dose of BNT162b2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Vaccine

Immune response after a single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine was markedly increased in subjects with previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, reaching similar immunoglobulin titers to those elicited by the full 2 doses in naive cases, and increased modestly after the second dose. These data may inform the priority of the boosting dose.

Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine, such as by halving doses or increasing the interval between doses, can reduce disease and mortality compared with concentrating available vaccine doses in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that the vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine-escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that, although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of viral escape from vaccine or naturally induced immunity. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence of efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.

Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose

Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8-29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52-0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25-0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37-0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23-0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses.

Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose

Two of the COVID-19 vaccines currently approved in the United States require two doses, administered three to four weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose, or to continue with the recommended two-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these two vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of pre-existing immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% CrI: 7.8 - 29.7) infections, 0.71 (95% CrI: 0.52 - 0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25 - 0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the two doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.61 (95% CrI: 0.37 - 0.89) hospitalizations and 0.31 (95% CrI: 0.23 - 0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the two doses.