Risk of progression to active tuberculosis following reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study

BACKGROUND

Individuals who were formerly incarcerated have high tuberculosis incidence, but are generally not considered among the risk groups eligible for tuberculosis prevention. We investigated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection screening and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for individuals who were formerly incarcerated in Brazil.

METHODS

Using published evidence for Brazil, we constructed a Markov state transition model estimating tuberculosis-related health outcomes and costs among individuals who were formerly incarcerated, by simulating transitions between health states over time. The analysis compared tuberculosis infection screening and TPT, to no screening, considering a combination of M tuberculosis infection tests and TPT regimens. We quantified health effects as reductions in tuberculosis cases, tuberculosis deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We assessed costs from a tuberculosis programme perspective. We report intervention cost-effectiveness as the incremental costs per DALY averted, and tested how results changed across subgroups of the target population.

FINDINGS

Compared with no intervention, an intervention incorporating tuberculin skin testing and treatment with 3 months of isoniazid and rifapentine would avert 31 (95% uncertainty interval 14-56) lifetime tuberculosis cases and 4·1 (1·4-5·8) lifetime tuberculosis deaths per 1000 individuals, and cost US$242 per DALY averted. All test and regimen combinations were cost-effective compared with no screening. Younger age, longer incarceration, and more recent prison release were each associated with significantly greater health benefits and more favourable cost-effectiveness ratios, although the intervention was cost-effective for all subgroups examined.

INTERPRETATION

M tuberculosis infection screening and TPT for individuals who were formerly incarcerated appears cost-effective, and would provide valuable health gains.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

CD4+ T cells re-wire granuloma cellularity and regulatory networks to promote immunomodulation following Mtb reinfection

Immunological priming-in the context of either prior infection or vaccination-elicits protective responses against subsequent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. However, the changes that occur in the lung cellular milieu post-primary Mtb infection and their contributions to protection upon reinfection remain poorly understood. Using clinical and microbiological endpoints in a non-human primate reinfection model, we demonstrated that prior Mtb infection elicited a long-lasting protective response against subsequent Mtb exposure and was CD4+ T cell dependent. By analyzing data from primary infection, reinfection, and reinfection-CD4+ T cell-depleted granulomas, we found that the presence of CD4+ T cells during reinfection resulted in a less inflammatory lung milieu characterized by reprogrammed CD8+ T cells, reduced neutrophilia, and blunted type 1 immune signaling among myeloid cells. These results open avenues for developing vaccines and therapeutics that not only target lymphocytes but also modulate innate immune cells to limit tuberculosis (TB) disease.

Antigen specificity shapes antibody functions in tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is the number one infectious disease cause of death worldwide due to an incomplete understanding of immunity. Emerging data highlight antibody functions mediated by the Fc domain as immune correlates. However, the mechanisms by which antibody functions impact the causative agent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) are unclear. Here, we examine how antigen specificity determined by the Fab domain shapes Fc effector functions against Mtb. Using the critical structural and secreted virulence proteins Mtb cell wall and ESAT-6 & CFP-10, we observe that antigen specificity alters subclass, antibody post-translational glycosylation, and Fc effector functions in TB patients. Moreover, Mtb cell wall IgG3 enhances disease through opsonophagocytosis of extracellular Mtb . In contrast, polyclonal and a human monoclonal IgG1 we generated targeting ESAT-6 & CFP-10 inhibit intracellular Mtb . These data show that antibodies have multiple roles in TB and antigen specificity is a critical determinant of the protective and pathogenic capacity.

Host and pathogen genetic diversity shape vaccine-mediated protection to Mycobacterium tuberculosis

To investigate how host and pathogen diversity govern immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), we performed a large-scale screen of vaccine-mediated protection against aerosol Mtb infection using three inbred mouse strains [C57BL/6 (B6), C3HeB/FeJ (C3H), Balb/c x 129/SvJ (C129F1)] and three Mtb strains (H37Rv, CDC1551, SA161) representing two lineages and distinct virulence properties. We compared three protective modalities, all of which involve inoculation with live mycobacteria: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), the only approved TB vaccine, delivered either subcutaneously or intravenously, and concomitant Mtb infection (CoMtb), a model of pre-existing immunity in which a low-level Mtb infection is established in the cervical lymph node following intradermal inoculation. We examined lung bacterial burdens at early (Day 28) and late (Day 98) time points after aerosol Mtb challenge and histopathology at Day 98. We observed substantial heterogeneity in the reduction of bacterial load afforded by these modalities at Day 28 across the combinations and noted a strong positive correlation between bacterial burden in unvaccinated mice and the degree of protection afforded by vaccination. Although we observed variation in the degree of reduction in bacterial burdens across the nine mouse/bacterium strain combinations, virtually all protective modalities performed similarly for a given strain-strain combination. We also noted dramatic variation in histopathology changes driven by both host and bacterial genetic backgrounds. Vaccination improved pathology scores for all infections except CDC1551. However, the most dramatic impact of vaccination on lesion development occurred for the C3H-SA161 combination, where vaccination entirely abrogated the development of the large necrotic lesions that arise in unvaccinated mice. In conclusion, we find that substantial TB heterogeneity can be recapitulated by introducing variability in both host and bacterial genetics, resulting in changes in vaccine-mediated protection as measured both by bacterial burden as well as histopathology. These differences can be harnessed in future studies to identify immune correlates of vaccine efficacy.

Cost-effectiveness of TB diagnostic technologies in Ethiopia: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major threat to public health, particularly in countries where the disease is highly prevalent, such as Ethiopia. Early diagnosis and treatment are the main components of TB prevention and control. Although the national TB guideline recommends the primary use of rapid TB diagnostics whenever feasible, there is limited evidence available that assess the efficiency of deploying various diagnostic tools in the country. Hence, this study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rapid TB/MDR-TB diagnostic tools in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A hybrid Markov model for a hypothetical adult cohort of presumptive TB cases was constructed. The following TB diagnostic tools were evaluated: X-pert MTB/RIF, Truenat, chest X-ray screening followed by an X-pert MTB/RIF, TB-LAMP, and smear microscopy. Cost-effectiveness was determined based on incremental costs ($) per Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALY) averted, using a threshold of one times Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita ($856). Data on starting and transition probabilities, costs, and health state utilities were derived from secondary sources. The analysis is conducted from the health system perspective, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is performed.

RESULT

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for X-pert MTB/RIF, compared to the next best alternative, is $276 per DALY averted, making it a highly cost-effective diagnostic tool. Additionally, chest X-ray screening followed an X-pert MTB/RIF test is less cost-effective, with an ICER of $1666 per DALY averted. Introducing X-pert MTB/RIF testing would enhance TB detection and prevent 9600 DALYs in a cohort of 10,000 TB patients, with a total cost of $3,816,000.

CONCLUSION

The X-pert MTB/RIF test is the most cost-effective diagnostic tool compared to other alternatives. The use of this diagnostic tool improves the early detection and treatment of TB cases. Increased funding for this diagnostic tool will enhance access, reduce the TB detection gaps, and improve treatment outcomes.

High all-cause mortality and increasing proportion of older adults with tuberculosis in Texas, 2008-2020

Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) elimination efforts must consider the global growth of the ageing population. Here we used TB surveillance data from Texas, United States (2008-2020; total n = 10656) to identify unique characteristics and outcomes in older adults (OA, ≥65 years) with PTB, compared to young adults (YA, 18-39 years) or middle-aged adults (40-64 years). We found that the proportion of OA with PTB increased from 15% in 2008 to 24% in 2020 (trend p < 0.05). Diabetes was highly prevalent in OA (32%) but not associated with adverse outcomes. Death was 13-fold higher in OA compared to YA and was 7% at the time of diagnosis which suggests diagnostic delays. However, once TB was suspected, we found no differences in culture, smear, or nucleic acid detection of mycobacteria (although less lung cavitations) in OA. During treatment, OA had less drug-resistant TB, few adverse reactions and adhered with TB treatment. We recommend training healthcare workers to 'think TB' in OA, for prompt treatment initiation to diminish deaths. Furthermore, OA should be added as a priority group to the latent TB treatment guidelines by the World Health Organization, to prevent TB disease in this highly vulnerable group.

Antibiotic treatment modestly reduces protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis reinfection in macaques

Concomitant immunity is generally defined as an ongoing infection providing protection against reinfection . Its role in prevention of tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is supported by epidemiological evidence in humans as well as experimental evidence in mice and non-human primates (NHPs). Whether the presence of live Mtb, rather than simply persistent antigen, is necessary for concomitant immunity in TB is still unclear. Here, we investigated whether live Mtb plays a measurable role in control of secondary Mtb infection. Using cynomolgus macaques, molecularly barcoded Mtb libraries, positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET CT) imaging, flow cytometry, and cytokine profiling, we evaluated the effect of antibiotic treatment after primary infection on immunological response and bacterial establishment, dissemination, and burden post-secondary infection. Our data provide evidence that, in this experimental model, treatment with antibiotics after primary infection reduced inflammation in the lung but was not associated with a significant change in bacterial establishment, dissemination, or burden in the lung or lymph nodes. Nonetheless, treatment of the prior infection with antibiotics did result in a modest reduction in protection against reinfection: none of the seven antibiotic-treated animals demonstrated sterilizing immunity against reinfection, while four of the seven non-treated macaques were completely protected against reinfection. These findings support that antibiotic-treated animals were still able to restrict bacterial establishment and dissemination after rechallenge compared to naïve macaques, but not to the full extent of non-antibiotic-treated macaques.

Interferon-gamma release assay conversion after Mycobacterium tuberculosis exposure specifically associates with greater risk of progression to tuberculosis: A prospective cohort study in Leicester, UK

OBJECTIVES

We investigated whether quantifying the serial QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) response improves tuberculosis (TB) risk stratification in pulmonary TB (PTB) contacts.

METHODS

A total of 297 untreated adult household PTB contacts, QFT tested at baseline and 3 months after index notification, were prospectively observed (median 1460 days). Normal variance of serial QFT responses was established in 46 extrapulmonary TB contacts. This informed categorisation of the response in QFT-positive PTB contacts as converters, persistently QFT-positive with significant increase (PPincrease), and without significant increase (PPno-increase).

RESULTS

In total, eight co-prevalent TB (disease ≤3 months after index notification) and 12 incident TB (>3 months after index notification) cases were diagnosed. Genetic linkage to the index strain was confirmed in all culture-positive progressors. The cumulative 2-year incident TB risk in QFT-positive contacts was 8.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.0-13.6%); stratifying by serial QFT response, significantly higher risk was observed in QFT converters (28%), compared with PPno-increase (4.8%) and PPincrease (3.7%). Converters were characterised by exposure to index cases with a shorter interval from symptom onset to diagnosis (median reduction 50.0 days, P = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

QFT conversion, rather than quantitative changes of a persistently positive serial QFT response, is associated with greater TB risk and exposure to rapidly progressive TB.

Antibiotic treatment modestly reduces protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis reinfection in macaques

Concomitant immunity is generally defined as an ongoing infection providing protection against reinfection1. Its role in prevention of tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is supported by epidemiological evidence in humans as well as experimental evidence in mice and non-human primates (NHPs). Whether the presence of live Mtb, rather than simply persistent antigen, is necessary for concomitant immunity in TB is still unclear. Here, we investigated whether live Mtb plays a measurable role in control of secondary Mtb infection. Using cynomolgus macaques, molecularly barcoded Mtb libraries, PET-CT imaging, flow cytometry and cytokine profiling we evaluated the effect of antibiotic treatment after primary infection on immunological response and bacterial establishment, dissemination, and burden post-secondary infection. Our data provide evidence that, in this experimental model, treatment with antibiotics after primary infection reduced inflammation in the lung but was not associated with a significant change in bacterial establishment, dissemination or burden in the lung or lymph nodes. Nonetheless, treatment of the prior infection with antibiotics did result in a modest reduction in protection against reinfection: none of the 7 antibiotic treated animals demonstrated sterilizing immunity against reinfection while 4 of the 7 non-treated macaques were completely protected against reinfection. These findings support that antibiotic-treated animals were still able to restrict bacterial establishment and dissemination after rechallenge compared to naïve macaques, but not to the full extent of non-antibiotic treated macaques.

Model-based impact evaluation of new tuberculosis vaccines in aging populations under different modeling scenarios: the case of China

Introduction

The slow descent in TB burden, the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the rise of multidrug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, seriously threaten TB control and the goals of the End TB strategy. To fight back, several vaccine candidates are under development, with some of them undergoing the phases 2B and 3 of the development pipeline. The impact of these vaccines on the general population needs to be addressed using disease-transmission models, and, in a country like China, which last year ranked third in number of cases worldwide, and where the population is aging at a fast pace, the impact of TB vaccination campaigns may depend heavily upon the age of targeted populations, the mechanistic descriptions of the TB vaccines and the coupling between TB dynamics and demographic evolution.

Methods

In this work, we studied the potential impact of a new TB vaccine in China targeting adolescents (15-19 y.o.) or older adults (60-64 y.o.), according to varying vaccine descriptions that represent reasonable mechanisms of action leading to prevention of disease, or prevention of recurrence, each of them targetting specific routes to TB disease. To measure the influence of the description of the coupling between transmission dynamics and aging in TB transmission models, we explored two different approaches to compute the evolution of the contact matrices, which relate to the spreading among different age strata.

Results

Our findings highlight the dependence of model-based impact estimates on vaccine profiles and the chosen modeling approach for describing the evolution of contact matrices. Our results also show, in line with previous modeling works, that older adult vaccination is a suitable option in China to reduce the incidence of TB as long as the vaccine is able to protect already exposed individuals.

Discussion

This study underscores the importance of considering vaccine characteristics and demographic dynamics in shaping TB control strategies. In this sense, older adult vaccination emerges as a promising avenue for mitigating TB transmission in China but also remarks the need for tailored intervention strategies aligned with demographic trends.

SLCO1B1 Polymorphisms are Associated with the Susceptibility to Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Chinese Females

This study aimed to evaluate the role of SLCO1B1 polymorphisms in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) risk among Chinese patients. This study comprised 600 PTB patients (mean age: 37.43 ± 12.73 years) and 600 healthy controls (mean age: 37.39 ± 12.57 years) from a Chinese population. The SLCO1B1 rs2306283 and rs4149056 polymorphisms were detected using TaqMan genotyping assay. Chi-square (χ2) test was applied to calculate the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) among controls. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). After adjustment for age and gender, the frequency of rs4149056-C was significantly higher in PTB group (P = 0.017, OR = 1.375, 95% CI 1.058-1.786); meanwhile, rs4149056 was associated with increased PTB risk in dominant model (P = 0.015, OR = 1.424, 95% CI 1.072-1.892). The frequency and genotype of rs2306283 showed no significant difference between the two groups. In stratified analysis, rs2306283-GG showed notable susceptibility to PTB (P = 0.027, OR = 1.563, 95% CI 1.051-2.323 in recessive model) in females; rs4149056-C was also significantly higher in female PTB group (P = 0.039, OR = 1.741, 95% CI 1.028-2.948). Neither of rs2306283 and rs4149056 polymorphisms was associated with PTB risk in males. A haplotype analysis showed that patients carrying at least one SLCO1B1*15 haplotype had higher PTB risk (P = 0.004, OR = 1.527, 95% CI 1.145-2.034). SLCO1B1 polymorphisms are associated with the susceptibility to pulmonary tuberculosis in Chinese females.

The Impact of Preventive Treatment for Multidrug- and Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis Exceeds Trial-Based Estimates

BACKGROUND

Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug- or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of delivering TPT to MDR/RR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR/RR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India. We simulated contact investigation in households of patients with MDR/RR-TB, comparing an MDR/RR-TPT regimen (assuming 6-month duration, 70% efficacy) and associated active case finding against alternatives of contact investigation without TPT or no household intervention. We simulated the TB and MDR/RR-TB incidence averted relative to placebo over 2 years, as measurable by a typical trial, as well as the incidence averted over a longer time horizon, in the broader population, and relative to no contact investigation.

RESULTS

Observing TPT and placebo recipients for 2 years as in a typical trial, MDR/RR-TPT was measured to prevent 72% (interquartile range, 45%-100%) of incident MDR/RR-TB among recipients; the median number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 MDR/RR-TB case was 73, compared to placebo. This NNT decreased to 54 with 13-18 years of observation, to 27 when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 when the effects of active TB screening were included by comparing to a no-household-contact-intervention scenario.

CONCLUSIONS

If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of TPT for MDR/RR-TB-including the large effect of increased active TB detection among MDR/RR-TB contacts-could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.

Exposure to Mycobacterium remodels alveolar macrophages and the early innate response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

Alveolar macrophages (AMs) play a critical role during Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection as the first cells in the lung to encounter bacteria. We previously showed that AMs initially respond to Mtb in vivo by mounting a cell-protective, rather than pro-inflammatory response. However, the plasticity of the initial AM response was unknown. Here, we characterize how previous exposure to Mycobacterium, either through subcutaneous vaccination with Mycobacterium bovis (scBCG) or through a contained Mtb infection (coMtb) that mimics aspects of concomitant immunity, impacts the initial response by AMs. We find that both scBCG and coMtb accelerate early innate cell activation and recruitment and generate a stronger pro-inflammatory response to Mtb in vivo by AMs. Within the lung environment, AMs from scBCG vaccinated mice mount a robust interferon-associated response, while AMs from coMtb mice produce a broader inflammatory response that is not dominated by Interferon Stimulated Genes. Using scRNAseq, we identify changes to the frequency and phenotype of airway-resident macrophages following Mycobacterium exposure, with enrichment for both interferon-associated and pro-inflammatory populations of AMs. In contrast, minimal changes were found for airway-resident T cells and dendritic cells after exposures. Ex vivo stimulation of AMs with Pam3Cys, LPS and Mtb reveal that scBCG and coMtb exposures generate stronger interferon-associated responses to LPS and Mtb that are cell-intrinsic changes. However, AM profiles that were unique to each exposure modality following Mtb infection in vivo are dependent on the lung environment and do not emerge following ex vivo stimulation. Overall, our studies reveal significant and durable remodeling of AMs following exposure to Mycobacterium, with evidence for both AM-intrinsic changes and contributions from the altered lung microenvironments. Comparisons between the scBCG and coMtb models highlight the plasticity of AMs in the airway and opportunities to target their function through vaccination or host-directed therapies.

Exploring the ethics of tuberculosis human challenge models

We extend recent conversation about the ethics of human challenge trials to tuberculosis (TB). TB challenge studies could accelerate vaccine development, but ethical concerns regarding risks to trial participants and third parties have been a limiting factor. We analyse the expected social value and risks of different challenge models, concluding that if a TB challenge trial has between a 10% and a 50% chance of leading to the authorisation and near-universal delivery of a more effective vaccine 3-5 years earlier, then the trial would save between 26 400 and 1 100 000 lives over the next 10 years. We also identify five important ethical considerations that differentiate TB from recent human challenge trials: an exceptionally high disease burden with no highly effective vaccine; heightened third party risk following the trial, and, partly for that reason, uniquely stringent biosafety requirements for the trial; risks associated with best available TB treatments; and difficulties with TB disease detection. We argue that there is good reason to consider conducting challenge trials with attenuated strains like Bacillus Calmette-Guérin or attenuated Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

CD4+ T cells are homeostatic regulators during Mtb reinfection

Immunological priming - either in the context of prior infection or vaccination - elicits protective responses against subsequent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection. However, the changes that occur in the lung cellular milieu post-primary Mtb infection and their contributions to protection upon reinfection remain poorly understood. Here, using clinical and microbiological endpoints in a non-human primate reinfection model, we demonstrate that prior Mtb infection elicits a long-lasting protective response against subsequent Mtb exposure and that the depletion of CD4+ T cells prior to Mtb rechallenge significantly abrogates this protection. Leveraging microbiologic, PET-CT, flow cytometric, and single-cell RNA-seq data from primary infection, reinfection, and reinfection-CD4+ T cell depleted granulomas, we identify differential cellular and microbial features of control. The data collectively demonstrate that the presence of CD4+ T cells in the setting of reinfection results in a reduced inflammatory lung milieu characterized by reprogrammed CD8+ T cell activity, reduced neutrophilia, and blunted type-1 immune signaling among myeloid cells, mitigating Mtb disease severity. These results open avenues for developing vaccines and therapeutics that not only target CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, but also modulate innate immune cells to limit Mtb disease.

Distinct gene expression signatures comparing latent tuberculosis infection with different routes of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination

Tuberculosis remains an international health threat partly because of limited protection from pulmonary tuberculosis provided by standard intradermal vaccination with Bacillus of Calmette and Guérin (BCG); this may reflect the inability of intradermal vaccination to optimally induce pulmonary immunity. In contrast, respiratory Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection usually results in the immune-mediated bacillary containment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Here we present RNA-Seq-based assessments of systemic and pulmonary immune cells from LTBI participants and recipients of intradermal and oral BCG. LTBI individuals uniquely display ongoing immune activation and robust CD4 T cell recall responses in blood and lung. Intradermal BCG is associated with robust systemic immunity but only limited pulmonary immunity. Conversely, oral BCG induces limited systemic immunity but distinct pulmonary responses including enhanced inflammasome activation potentially associated with mucosal-associated invariant T cells. Further, IL-9 is identified as a component of systemic immunity in LTBI and intradermal BCG, and pulmonary immunity following oral BCG.

From immunology to artificial intelligence: revolutionizing latent tuberculosis infection diagnosis with machine learning

Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has become a major source of active tuberculosis (ATB). Although the tuberculin skin test and interferon-gamma release assay can be used to diagnose LTBI, these methods can only differentiate infected individuals from healthy ones but cannot discriminate between LTBI and ATB. Thus, the diagnosis of LTBI faces many challenges, such as the lack of effective biomarkers from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) for distinguishing LTBI, the low diagnostic efficacy of biomarkers derived from the human host, and the absence of a gold standard to differentiate between LTBI and ATB. Sputum culture, as the gold standard for diagnosing tuberculosis, is time-consuming and cannot distinguish between ATB and LTBI. In this article, we review the pathogenesis of MTB and the immune mechanisms of the host in LTBI, including the innate and adaptive immune responses, multiple immune evasion mechanisms of MTB, and epigenetic regulation. Based on this knowledge, we summarize the current status and challenges in diagnosing LTBI and present the application of machine learning (ML) in LTBI diagnosis, as well as the advantages and limitations of ML in this context. Finally, we discuss the future development directions of ML applied to LTBI diagnosis.

Impact of Reversion of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Tests on the Estimated Annual Risk of Tuberculosis Infection

A key metric in tuberculosis epidemiology is the annual risk of infection (ARI), which is usually derived from tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) prevalence surveys carried out in children. Derivation of the ARI assumes that immunoreactivity is persistent over time; however, reversion of immunoreactivity has long been documented. We used a deterministic, compartmental model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to explore the impact of reversion on ARI estimation using age-specific reversion probabilities for the TST and IGRA. Using empirical data on TST reversion (22.2%/year for persons aged ≤19 years), the true ARI was 2-5 times higher than that estimated from immunoreactivity studies in children aged 8-12 years. Applying empirical reversion probabilities for the IGRA (9.9%/year for youths aged 12-18 years) showed a 1.5- to 2-fold underestimation. ARIs are increasingly underestimated in older populations, due to the cumulative impact of reversion on population reactivity over time. Declines in annual risk did not largely affect the results. Ignoring reversion leads to a stark underestimation of the true ARI in populations and our interpretation of Mtb transmission intensity. In future surveys, researchers should adjust for the reversion probability and its cumulative effect with increasing age to obtain a more accurate reflection of the burden and dynamics of Mtb infection.

Quantifying the potential epidemiological impact of a 2-year active case finding for tuberculosis in rural Nepal: a model-based analysis

OBJECTIVES

Active case finding (ACF) is an important tuberculosis (TB) intervention in high-burden settings. However, empirical evidence garnered from field data has been equivocal about the long-term community-level impact, and more data at a finer geographic scale and data-informed methods to quantify their impact are necessary.

METHODS

Using village development committee (VDC)-level data on TB notification and demography between 2016 and 2017 in four southern districts of Nepal, where ACF activities were implemented as a part of the IMPACT-TB study between 2017 and 2019, we developed VDC-level transmission models of TB and ACF. Using these models and ACF yield data collected in the study, we estimated the potential epidemiological impact of IMPACT-TB ACF and compared its efficiency across VDCs in each district.

RESULTS

Cases were found in the majority of VDCs during IMPACT-TB ACF, but the number of cases detected within VDCs correlated weakly with historic case notification rates. We projected that this ACF intervention would reduce the TB incidence rate by 14% (12-16) in Chitwan, 8.6% (7.3-9.7) in Dhanusha, 8.3% (7.3-9.2) in Mahottari and 3% (2.5-3.2) in Makwanpur. Over the next 10 years, we projected that this intervention would avert 987 (746-1282), 422 (304-571), 598 (450-782) and 197 (172-240) cases in Chitwan, Dhanusha, Mahottari and Makwanpur, respectively. There was substantial variation in the efficiency of ACF across VDCs: there was up to twofold difference in the number of cases averted in the 10 years per case detected.

CONCLUSION

ACF data confirm that TB is widely prevalent, including in VDCs with relatively low reporting rates. Although ACF is a highly efficient component of TB control, its impact can vary substantially at local levels and must be combined with other interventions to alter TB epidemiology significantly.

Spatially-targeted tuberculosis screening has limited impact beyond household contact tracing in Lima, Peru: A model-based analysis

Mathematical models have suggested that spatially-targeted screening interventions for tuberculosis may efficiently accelerate disease control, but empirical data supporting these findings are limited. Previous models demonstrating substantial impacts of these interventions have typically simulated large-scale screening efforts and have not attempted to capture the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in households and communities at a high resolution. Here, we calibrate an individual-based model to the locations of case notifications in one district of Lima, Peru. We estimate the incremental efficiency and impact of a spatially-targeted interventions used in combination with household contact tracing (HHCT). Our analysis reveals that HHCT is relatively efficient with a median of 40 (Interquartile Range: 31.7 to 49.9) household contacts required to be screened to detect a single case of active tuberculosis. However, HHCT has limited population impact, producing a median incidence reduction of only 3.7% (Interquartile Range: 5.8% to 1.9%) over 5 years. In comparison, spatially targeted screening (which we modeled as active case finding within high tuberculosis prevalence areas 100 m2 grid cell) is far less efficient, requiring evaluation of ≈12 times the number of individuals as HHCT to find a single individual with active tuberculosis. Furthermore, the addition of the spatially targeted screening effort produced only modest additional reductions in tuberculosis incidence over the 5 year period (≈1.3%) in tuberculosis incidence. In summary, we found that HHCT is an efficient approach for tuberculosis case finding, but has limited population impact. Other screening approaches which target areas of high tuberculosis prevalence are less efficient, and may have limited impact unless very large numbers of individuals can be screened.

Helper T cell bias following tuberculosis chemotherapy identifies opportunities for therapeutic vaccination to prevent relapse

Therapeutic vaccines have promise as adjunctive treatment for tuberculosis (TB) or as preventives against TB relapse. An important development challenge is the limited understanding of T helper (Th) cell roles during these stages of disease. A murine model of TB relapse was used to identify changes in Th populations and cytokine microenvironment. Active TB promoted expansion of Th1, Th2, Th17, and Th22 cells and cytokines in the lung. Following drug therapy, pulmonary Th17 and Th22 cells contracted, Th1 cells remained elevated, while Th cells producing IL-4 or IL-10 expanded. At relapse, Th22 cells failed to re-expand in the lung despite a moderate re-expansion of Th1 and Th17 cells and an increase in Th cytokine polyfunctionality. The dynamics of Th populations further differed by tissue compartment and disease presentation. These outcomes identify immune bias by Th subpopulations during TB relapse as candidate mechanisms for pathogenesis and targets for therapeutic vaccination.

Targeting Mycobacterium tuberculosis iron-scavenging tools: a recent update on siderophores inhibitors

Among the various bacterial infections, tuberculosis (TB) remains a life-threatening infectious disease responsible as the most significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The co-infection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in association with TB burdens the healthcare system substantially. Notably, M.tb possesses defence against most antitubercular antibiotic drugs, and the efficacy of existing frontline anti-TB drugs is waning. Also, new and recurring cases of TB from resistant bacteria such as multidrug-resistant TB (MDR), extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR), and totally drug-resistant TB (TDR) strains are increasing. Hence, TB begs the scientific community to explore the new therapeutic class of compounds with their novel mechanism. M.tb requires iron from host cells to sustain, grow, and carry out several biological processes. M.tb has developed strategic methods of acquiring iron from the surrounding environment. In this communication, we discuss an overview of M.tb iron-scavenging tools. Also, we have summarized recently identified MbtA and MbtI inhibitors, which prevent M.tb from scavenging iron. These iron-scavenging tool inhibitors have the potential to be developed as anti-TB agents/drugs.

Prioritizing persons deprived of liberty in global guidelines for tuberculosis preventive treatment

In this Policy Forum piece, Aditya Narayan and colleagues discuss the challenges and opportunities for tuberculosis preventive treatment in carceral settings.

The Association of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with Kikuchi Syndrome: A Case Report and Literature Review

Kikuchi-Fujimoto disease (KFD) is considered one of the rare benign conditions of unknown etiology presenting with the triad of cervical lymphadenopathy, fever, and weight loss. The inciting cause continues to be elusive. One of the leading thoughts is that it may be a post-infectious immune response of T-cells and histocytes. The most common triggers reported have been viral infections. Treatment mainly revolves around the reduction of the inflammatory response with anti-inflammatory medication and steroids when appropriate. To date, there are very limited reports of Mycobacterium tuberculosis as an inciting agent documented. Here, we present a rare case of Kikuchi-Fujimoto disease following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, more than four years after the completion of therapy.

Modification of Silver Nanoplates with Cell-Binding Subunit of Bacterial Toxin and Their Antimicrobial Activity against Intracellular Bacteria

Intracellular bacteria are able to survive and grow in host cells and often cause serious infectious diseases. The B subunit of the subtilase cytotoxin (SubB) found in enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O113:H21 recognizes sialoglycans on cell surfaces and triggers the uptake of cytotoxin by the cells, meaning that Sub B is a ligand molecule that is expected to be useful for drug delivery into cells. In this study, we conjugated SubB to silver nanoplates (AgNPLs) for use as an antibacterial drug and examined their antimicrobial activity against intracellularly infecting Salmonella typhimurium (S. typhimurium). The modification of AgNPLs with SubB improved their dispersion stability and antibacterial activity against planktonic S. typhimurium. The SubB modification enhanced the cellular uptake of AgNPLs, and intracellularly infecting S. typhimurium were killed at low concentrations of AgNPLs. Interestingly, larger amounts of SubB-modified AgNPLs were taken up by infected cells compared with uninfected cells. These results suggest that the S. typhimurium infection activated the uptake of the nanoparticles into the cells. SubB-modified AgNPLs are expected to be useful bactericidal systems for intracellularly infecting bacteria.

A half-century of research on tuberculosis: Successes and challenges

Great progress has been made over the past half-century, but TB remains a formidable global health problem, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the mechanisms of pathogenesis and necessary and sufficient conditions for protection are critical. The need for inexpensive and sensitive point-of-care diagnostic tests for earlier detection of infection and disease, shorter and less-toxic drug regimens for drug-sensitive and -resistant TB, and a more effective vaccine than BCG is immense. New and better tools, greater support for international research, collaborations, and training will be required to dramatically reduce the burden of this devastating disease which still kills 1.6 million people annually.

Addressing mechanism bias in model-based impact forecasts of new tuberculosis vaccines

In tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development, multiple factors hinder the design and interpretation of the clinical trials used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The complex transmission chain of TB includes multiple routes to disease, making it hard to link the vaccine efficacy observed in a trial to specific protective mechanisms. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to evaluate the compatibility of different vaccine descriptions with clinical trial outcomes, unlocking impact forecasting from vaccines whose specific mechanisms of action are unknown. Applying our method to the analysis of the M72/AS01E vaccine trial -conducted on IGRA+ individuals- as a case study, we found that most plausible models for this vaccine needed to include protection against, at least, two over the three possible routes to active TB classically considered in the literature: namely, primary TB, latent TB reactivation and TB upon re-infection. Gathering new data regarding the impact of TB vaccines in various epidemiological settings would be instrumental to improve our model estimates of the underlying mechanisms.

Is neglect of self-clearance biasing TB vaccine impact estimates?

BACKGROUND

Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, with the majority of existing models assuming that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis disease. Recent research provides evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection may be common, which may affect the potential impact of new vaccines that only take in infected or uninfected individuals. We explored how the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India.

METHODS

For both countries, we calibrated a tuberculosis model to a scenario without self-clearance and to various scenarios with self-clearance. To account for the current uncertainty in self-clearance properties, we varied the rate of self-clearance, and the level of protection against reinfection in self-cleared individuals. We introduced potential new vaccines in 2025, exploring vaccines that work in uninfected or infected individuals only, or that are effective regardless of infection status, and modelling scenarios with different levels of vaccine efficacy in self-cleared individuals. We then estimated the relative disease incidence reduction in 2050 for each vaccine compared with the no vaccination scenario.

FINDINGS

The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated relative reductions in incidence in 2050 for vaccines effective only in uninfected individuals, by a maximum of 12% in China and 8% in India. The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated impact of vaccines only effective in infected individuals in some scenarios and decreased it in others, by a maximum of 14% in China and 15% in India. As would be expected, the inclusion of self-clearance had minimal impact on estimated reductions in incidence for vaccines that work regardless of infection status.

INTERPRETATIONS

Our work suggests that the neglect of self-clearance in mathematical models of tuberculosis vaccines does not result in substantially biased estimates of tuberculosis vaccine impact. It may, however, mean that we are slightly underestimating the relative advantages of vaccines that work in uninfected individuals only compared with those that work in infected individuals.

HIV-associated lung disease

Lung disease encompasses acute, infectious processes and chronic, non-infectious processes such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and lung cancer. People living with HIV are at increased risk of both acute and chronic lung diseases. Although the use of effective antiretroviral therapy has diminished the burden of infectious lung disease, people living with HIV experience growing morbidity and mortality from chronic lung diseases. A key risk factor for HIV-associated lung disease is cigarette smoking, which is more prevalent in people living with HIV than in uninfected people. Other risk factors include older age, history of bacterial pneumonia, Pneumocystis pneumonia, pulmonary tuberculosis and immunosuppression. Mechanistic investigations support roles for aberrant innate and adaptive immunity, local and systemic inflammation, oxidative stress, altered lung and gut microbiota, and environmental exposures such as biomass fuel burning in the development of HIV-associated lung disease. Assessment, prevention and treatment strategies are largely extrapolated from data from HIV-uninfected people. Smoking cessation is essential. Data on the long-term consequences of HIV-associated lung disease are limited. Efforts to continue quantifying the effects of HIV infection on the lung, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, are essential to advance our knowledge and optimize respiratory care in people living with HIV.

Is neglect of self-clearance biassing TB vaccine impact estimates?

Background

Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, with the majority of existing models assuming that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis disease. Recent research provides evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection may be common, which may affect the potential impact of new vaccines that only take in infected or uninfected individuals. We explored how the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India.

Methods

For both countries, we calibrated a tuberculosis model to a scenario without self-clearance and to various scenarios with self-clearance. To account for the current uncertainty in self-clearance properties, we varied the rate of self-clearance, and the level of protection against reinfection in self-cleared individuals. We introduced potential new vaccines in 2025, exploring vaccines that work in uninfected or infected individuals only, or that are effective regardless of infection status, and modelling scenarios with different levels of vaccine efficacy in self-cleared individuals. We then estimated the relative incidence reduction in 2050 for each vaccine compared to the no vaccination scenario.

Findings

The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated relative reductions in incidence in 2050 for vaccines effective only in uninfected individuals, by a maximum of 12% in China and 8% in India. The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated impact of vaccines only effective in infected individuals in some scenarios and decreased it in others, by a maximum of 14% in China and 15% in India. As would be expected, the inclusion of self-clearance had minimal impact on estimated reductions in incidence for vaccines that work regardless of infection status.

Interpretations

Our work suggests that the neglect of self-clearance in mathematical models of tuberculosis vaccines does not result in substantially biased estimates of tuberculosis vaccine impact. It may, however, mean that we are slightly underestimating the relative advantages of vaccines that work in uninfected individuals only compared to those that work in infected individuals.

Exhaled Mycobacterium tuberculosis Predicts Incident Infection in Household Contacts

BACKGROUND

Halting transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) by identifying infectious individuals early is key to eradicating tuberculosis (TB). Here we evaluate face mask sampling as a tool for stratifying the infection risk of individuals with pulmonary TB (PTB) to their household contacts.

METHODS

Forty-six sputum-positive PTB patients in The Gambia (August 2016-November 2017) consented to mask sampling prior to commencing treatment. Incident Mtb infection was defined in 181 of their 217 household contacts as QuantiFERON conversion or an increase in interferon-γ of ≥1 IU/mL, 6 months after index diagnosis. Multilevel mixed-effects logistical regression analysis with cluster adjustment by household was used to identify predictors of incident infection.

RESULTS

Mtb was detected in 91% of PTB mask samples with high variation in IS6110 copies (5.3 × 102 to 1.2 × 107). A high mask Mtb level (≥20 000 IS6110 copies) was observed in 45% of cases and was independently associated with increased likelihood of incident Mtb infection in contacts (adjusted odds ratio, 3.20 [95% confidence interval, 1.26-8.12]; P = .01), compared with cases having low-positive/negative mask Mtb levels. Mask Mtb level was a better predictor of incident Mtb infection than sputum bacillary load, chest radiographic characteristics, or sleeping proximity.

CONCLUSIONS

Mask sampling offers a sensitive and noninvasive tool to support the stratification of individuals who are most infectious in high-TB-burden settings. Our approach can provide better insight into community transmission in complex environments.

Trials underestimate the impact of preventive treatment for household contacts exposed to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a simulation study

Background

Several clinical trials of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are nearing completion. The potential benefits of TPT for MDR-TB contacts extend beyond the outcomes that clinical trials can measure.

Methods

We developed an agent-based, household-structured TB and MDR-TB transmission model, calibrated to an illustrative setting in India, the country accounting for 26% of global MDR-TB burden. We simulated household contact investigation for contacts of patients with MDR-TB, comparing an MDR-TPT regimen against alternatives of isoniazid preventive treatment, household contact investigation without TPT, or no household contact intervention. We simulated outcomes of a clinical trial and estimated the patient-level and population-level effects over a longer time horizon.

Findings

During two years of follow-up per recipient, a simulated 6-month MDR-TPT regimen with 70% efficacy against both DS- and MDR-TB infection could prevent 72% [Interquartile range (IQR): 45 - 100%] of incident MDR-TB among TPT recipients (number needed to treat (NNT) 73 [44 - 176] to prevent one MDR-TB case), compared to household contact investigation without TPT. This NNT decreased to 54 [30 - 183] when median follow-up was increased from two to 16 years, to 27 [11 - Inf] when downstream transmission effects were also considered, and to 12 [8 - 22] when these effects were compared to a scenario of no household contact intervention.

Interpretation

If forthcoming trial results demonstrate efficacy, the long-term population impact of MDR-TPT implementation could be much greater than suggested by trial outcomes alone.

Funding

NIH K01AI138853 and K08AI127908; Johns Hopkins Catalyst Award.

Contribution of Reinfection to Annual Rate of Tuberculosis Infection (ARI) and Incidence of Tuberculosis Disease

BACKGROUND

Modeling studies have concluded that 60-80% of tuberculosis (TB) infections result from reinfection of previously infected persons. The annual rate of infection (ARI), a standard measure of the risk of TB infection in a community, may not accurately reflect the true risk of infection among previously infected persons. We constructed a model of infection and reinfection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to explore the predictive accuracy of ARI and its effect on disease incidence.

METHODS

We created a deterministic simulation of the progression from TB infection to disease and simulated the prevalence of TB infection at the beginning and end of a theoretical year of infection. We considered 10 disease prevalence scenarios ranging from 100/100 000 to 1000/100 000 in simulations where TB exposure probability was homogeneous across the whole simulated population or heterogeneously stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. ARI values, rates of progression from infection to disease, and the effect of multiple reinfections were obtained from published studies.

RESULTS

With homogeneous exposure risk, observed ARI values produced expected numbers of infections. However, when heterogeneous risk was introduced, observed ARI was seen to underestimate true ARI by 25-58%. Of the cases of TB disease that occurred, 36% were among previously infected persons when prevalence was 100/100 000, increasing to 79% of cases when prevalence was 1000/100 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Measured ARI underestimates true ARI as a result of heterogeneous population mixing. The true force of infection in a community may be greater than previously appreciated. Hyperendemic communities likely contribute disproportionally to the global TB disease burden.

The potential impact of vaccination on tuberculosis burden in India: A modelling analysis

Background & objectives

Vaccination will play an important role in meeting the end tuberculosis (TB) goals. While certain vaccine candidates in advanced stages of clinical trials raise hope for the future availability of new tools, in the immediate term, there is also increasing interest in Bacille Calmette-Guérin revaccination among adults and adolescents as a potential strategy. Here, we sought to estimate the potential epidemiological impact of TB vaccination in India.

Methods

We developed a deterministic, age-structured, compartmental model of TB in India. Data from the recent national prevalence survey was used to inform epidemiological burden while also incorporating a vulnerable population who may be prioritized for vaccination, the latter consistent with the burden of undernutrition. Using this framework, the potential impact on incidence and mortality of a vaccine with 50 per cent efficacy was estimated, if rolled out in 2023 to cover 50 per cent of the unvaccinated each year. Simulated impacts were compared for disease- vs. infection-preventing vaccines, as well as when prioritizing vulnerable groups (those with undernutrition) rather than the general population. A sensitivity analyses were also conducted with respect to the duration, and efficacy, of vaccine immunity.

Results

When rolled out in the general population, an infection-preventing vaccine would avert 12 per cent (95% Bayesian credible intervals (Crl): 4.3-28%) of cumulative TB incidence between 2023 and 2030, while a disease-preventing vaccine would avert 29 per cent (95% Crl: 24-34%). Although the vulnerable population accounts for only around 16 per cent of India's population, prioritizing this group for vaccination would achieve almost half the impact of rollout in the general population, in the example of an infection-preventing vaccine. Sensitivity analysis also highlights the importance of the duration and efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity.

Interpretation & conclusions

These results highlight how even a vaccine with moderate effectiveness (50%) could achieve substantial reductions in TB burden in India, especially when prioritized for the most vulnerable.

Transmissibility of tuberculosis among students and non-students: an occupational-specific mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND

Recently, despite the steady decline in the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic globally, school TB outbreaks have been frequently reported in China. This study aimed to quantify the transmissibility of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) among students and non-students using a mathematical model to determine characteristics of TB transmission.

METHODS

We constructed a dataset of reported TB cases from four regions (Jilin Province, Xiamen City, Chuxiong Prefecture, and Wuhan City) in China from 2005 to 2019. We classified the population and the reported cases under student and non-student groups, and developed two mathematical models [nonseasonal model (Model A) and seasonal model (Model B)] based on the natural history and transmission features of TB. The effective reproduction number (R_eff) of TB between groups were calculated using the collected data.

RESULTS

During the study period, data on 456,423 TB cases were collected from four regions: students accounted for 6.1% of cases. The goodness-of-fit analysis showed that Model A had a better fitting effect (P < 0.001). The average R_eff of TB estimated from Model A was 1.68 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.20-1.96] in Chuxiong Prefecture, 1.67 (IQR: 1.40-1.93) in Xiamen City, 1.75 (IQR: 1.37-2.02) in Jilin Province, and 1.79 (IQR: 1.56-2.02) in Wuhan City. The average R_eff of TB in the non-student population was 23.30 times (1.65/0.07) higher than that in the student population.

CONCLUSIONS

The transmissibility of MTB remains high in the non-student population of the areas studied, which is still dominant in the spread of TB. TB transmissibility from the non-student-to-student-population had a strong influence on students. Specific interventions, such as TB screening, should be applied rigorously to control and to prevent TB transmission among students.

Concomitant immunity to M. tuberculosis infection

Some persistent infections provide a level of immunity that protects against reinfection with the same pathogen, a process referred to as concomitant immunity. To explore the phenomenon of concomitant immunity during Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, we utilized HostSim, a previously published virtual host model of the immune response following Mtb infection. By simulating reinfection scenarios and comparing with data from non-human primate studies, we propose a hypothesis that the durability of a concomitant immune response against Mtb is intrinsically tied to levels of tissue resident memory T cells (Trms) during primary infection, with a secondary but important role for circulating Mtb-specific T cells. Further, we compare HostSim reinfection experiments to observational TB studies from the pre-antibiotic era to predict that the upper bound of the lifespan of resident memory T cells in human lung tissue is likely 2-3 years. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first estimate of resident memory T-cell lifespan in humans. Our findings are a first step towards demonstrating the important role of Trms in preventing disease and suggest that the induction of lung Trms is likely critical for vaccine success.

Re-evaluating the health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment for modern HIV cohorts on antiretroviral therapy: a modelling analysis using data from Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) can prevent tuberculosis among people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). HIV programmes are now initiating patients on ART with higher average CD4 cell counts and lower tuberculosis risks under test-and-treat guidelines. We aimed to investigate how this change has affected the health impact and cost-effectiveness of IPT.

METHODS

We constructed a tuberculosis-HIV microsimulation model parameterised using data from a large HIV treatment programme in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We simulated long-term health and cost outcomes for the 211 748 individuals initiating ART between Jan 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2020, under three scenarios: no IPT access; observed levels of IPT access (75%) and completion (71%); and full (100%) IPT access and completion. We stratified results by ART initiation year and starting CD4 cell count.

FINDINGS

Observed levels of IPT access were estimated to have averted 12 800 (95% uncertainty interval 7300 to 21 600) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and saved US$23 000 (-2 268 000 to 1 388 000). Full IPT access would have averted 24 500 (15 100 to 38 300) DALYs and cost $825 000 (-1 594 000 to 4 751 000), equivalent to $23·4 per DALY averted. Lifetime health benefits of IPT were estimated to be greater for more recent ART cohorts, while lifetime costs were stable. In subgroup analyses, a higher CD4 cell count at ART initiation was associated with greater health gains from IPT (15 900 [10 300 to 22 500] DALYs averted by full IPT per 100 000 patients for CD4 count >500 cells per μL at ART initiation, versus 7400 [4500 to 11 600] for CD4 count <100 cells per μL) and lower incremental lifetime costs.

INTERPRETATION

IPT remains highly cost-effective or cost-saving for recent ART cohorts. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of IPT are estimated to improve as patients initiate ART earlier in the course of infection.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

The burden and predictors of latent tuberculosis infection among elder adults in high epidemic rural area of tuberculosis in Zhejiang, China

Diagnosis and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is critical to tuberculosis (TB) control. Identifying the risk factors associated with LTBI can contribute to developing an optimized strategy for LTBI management. We conducted a survey of adults aged 65 years and older living in rural areas in Zhejiang Province during July 2021, followed by a one-year follow-up period to determine TB incidence. Participants underwent a physical examination and 5–6 mL of blood was drawn to test for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection A total of 1856 individuals participated in the study, of whom 50.5% were men and 80.1% were married. Most participants (96.8%) often opened windows for ventilation at home. One-third (33.4%) of participants had abnormal chest radiographs and 34.9% had LTBI. Nine participants (0.5%) developed active TB patients during the one-year follow-up period. People who frequented closed entertainment places such as chess and card rooms had a relatively high percentage of LTBI (39.5%). Factors associated with a higher risk of LTBI in multivariable logistic regression analysis included being male (odds ratio [OR]:1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] =:1.01-1.72), smoking (OR: 1.43; 95% CI:1.04-1.97), not opening windows for ventilation at home frequently (OR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.10–3.22), and abnormal chest radiographs (OR; 1.48; 95% CI; 1.20–1.81). LTBI was prevalent among the elder adults living in high-epidemic rural areas of TB in Zhejiang province. Men, people who smoke, and people without the habit of ventilating at home should be targeted for LTBI screening to accelerate the decline of the TB epidemic in Zhejiang Province.

Prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection and incidence of active tuberculosis in school close contacts in Shanghai, China: Baseline and follow-up results of a prospective cohort study

Background

The management of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is a key action for the realization of the “End tuberculosis (TB) Strategy” worldwide, and it is important to identify priority populations. In this prospective cohort study, we evaluated the prevalence of LTBI and incidence of active TB among close contacts and explored the suitable TB control strategy in schools.

Methods

We designed a cohort with 2 years of follow-up, recruiting freshman/sophomore TB patients’ close contacts from three administrative districts in Shanghai. These were chosen based on different levels of TB incidence reported in 2019. Questionnaires were included and all participants received both tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) at baseline, then tracked the outcomes of them during the follow-up period.

Results

The prevalence of LTBI was 4.8% by QFT. Univariate analysis showed that the risk of LTBI was higher in those contacting bacteriologically confirmed patients or did not have BCG scars, including smokers. The risk increased with poor lighting and ventilation conditions at contact sites. Multivariate analysis showed that those contacting with bacteriologically confirmed patients (OR=4.180; 95%CI, 1.164-15.011) or who did not have BCG scars (OR=5.054; 95%CI, 2.278-11.214) had a higher risk of being LTBI, as did the current smokers (OR=3.916; 95%CI, 1.508-10.168) and those who had stopped smoking (OR=7.491; 95%CI, 2.222-25.249). During the 2-year follow-up period, three clinically diagnosed cases of TB were recorded, the 2-year cumulative incidence was 0.4% (95%CI 0.1-1.2), the median duration for TB occurrence was 1 year, the incidence rate of active TB was 2.0 per 1000 person-years with a total of 1497.3 observation person-years. For those LTBI, no one initiated preventive treatment, in the QFT (+) cohort, 1 TB case was observed, 71 person-years with an incidence rate of 14.1 14.1 (95%CI 2.5-75.6) per 1000 person-years, in the TST (+++) cohort, 2 TB cases were observed 91.5 person-years with an incidence rate of 21.9 (95%CI 6.0-76.3) per 1000 person-years.

Conclusions

The results suggest that school close contacts are one of the key populations for LTBI management. Measures should be taken to further reduce the prevalence of LTBI and the incidence of active TB among them.

Pediatric Tuberculosis Management: A Global Challenge or Breakthrough?

Managing pediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains a public health problem requiring urgent and long-lasting solutions as TB is one of the top ten causes of ill health and death in children as well as adolescents universally. Minors are particularly susceptible to this severe illness that can be fatal post-infection or even serve as reservoirs for future disease outbreaks. However, pediatric TB is the least prioritized in most health programs and optimal infection/disease control has been quite neglected for this specialized patient category, as most scientific and clinical research efforts focus on developing novel management strategies for adults. Moreover, the ongoing coronavirus pandemic has meaningfully hindered the gains and progress achieved with TB prophylaxis, therapy, diagnosis, and global eradication goals for all affected persons of varying age bands. Thus, the opening of novel research activities and opportunities that can provide more insight and create new knowledge specifically geared towards managing TB disease in this specialized group will significantly improve their well-being and longevity.

End-point definition and trial design to advance tuberculosis vaccine development

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has negatively impacted the global TB burden of disease indicators. If the targets of TB mortality and incidence reduction set by the international community are to be met, new more effective adult and adolescent TB vaccines are urgently needed. There are several new vaccine candidates at different stages of clinical development. Given the limited funding for vaccine development, it is crucial that trial designs are as efficient as possible. Prevention of infection (POI) approaches offer an attractive opportunity to accelerate new candidate vaccines to advance into large and expensive prevention of disease (POD) efficacy trials. However, POI approaches are limited by imperfect current tools to measure Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection end-points. POD trials need to carefully consider the type and number of microbiological tests that define TB disease and, if efficacy against subclinical (asymptomatic) TB disease is to be tested, POD trials need to explore how best to define and measure this form of TB. Prevention of recurrence trials are an alternative approach to generate proof of concept for efficacy, but optimal timing of vaccination relative to treatment must still be explored. Novel and efficient approaches to efficacy trial design, in addition to an increasing number of candidates entering phase 2-3 trials, would accelerate the long-standing quest for a new TB vaccine.

Serial T-SPOT.TB responses in Tanzanian adolescents: Transient, persistent and irregular conversions

Background

Prospective studies of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) on healthy subjects in tuberculosis-endemic regions have not examined the long-term variability of serial assays. This issue is relevant to the interpretation of tuberculosis (TB) vaccine trials based on prevention of infection.

Methods

T-SPOT.TB assays were performed manually on healthy adolescents during a tuberculosis vaccine trial in Tanzania at 5 intervals over 3 years. Assay results were defined as negative, positive, borderline or invalid. Subsequently, microtiter plates were analyzed by an automated reader to obtain quantitative counts of spot forming cells (SFCs) for the present analysis.

Results

3387 T-SPOT.TB samples were analyzed from 928 adolescents; manual and automated assay results were 97% concordant. Based on the quantitative results 143 (15%) participants were prevalent IGRA-positives at baseline, were ineligible for further study. Among the remaining IGRA-negative participants, the annual rate of IGRA conversion was 2·9%. Among 43 IGRA converters with repeat assays 12 (28%) were persistent converters, 16 (37%) were transient converters, and 15 (35%) comprised a new category defined as irregular converters (≥2 different subsequent results). ESAT-6 and CFP-10 responses were higher in prevalent than incident positives: 53 vs 36 for CFP-10 (p < 0·007); 44 vs 34 for ESAT-6 (p = 0·12).

Conclusions

Definitions of IGRA conversion, reversion, and persistence depend critically on the frequency of testing. Multiple shifts in categories among adolescents in a TB-endemic country may represent multiple infections, variable host responses in subclinical infection, or assay variation. These findings should to be considered in the design and interpretation of TB vaccine trials based on prevention of infection. Household contact studies could determine whether even transient IGRA conversion might represent exposure to an active case of M. tuberculosis disease.

Are we underestimating the annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in high-burden settings?

The annual risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis determines a population's exposure level and thus the fraction of incident tuberculosis resulting from recent infection (often considered as having occurred within the past 2 years). Contemporary annual risk of infection estimates centre around 1% in most high-burden countries. We present three arguments why these estimates-primarily derived from cross-sectional tuberculin surveys in young school children (aged 5-12 years)-might underrepresent the true annual risk of infection. First, young children are expected to have lower risk of infection than older adolescents and adults (ie, those aged 15 years and older). Second, exposure might not lead to a positive test result in some individuals. Third, cross-sectional surveys might overlook transient immune responses. Accounting for these biases, the true annual risk of infection among adults in high-burden settings is probably closer to 5-10%. Consequently, most tuberculosis in those settings should reflect infection within the past 2 years rather than remote infection occurring many years ago. Under this reframing, major reductions in tuberculosis incidence could be achievable by focusing on the minority of people who have been recently infected.

Cascade Immune Mechanisms of Protection against Mycobacterium tuberculosis (IMPAc-TB): study protocol for the Household Contact Study in the Western Cape, South Africa

Background

Natural immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis exists, and > 90% of those infected remain disease-free. Innate and adaptive immune responses required to mediate such protection against tuberculosis (TB) are, however, poorly understood.

Methods

This is an analytical study exploring protective and non-protective pathways of immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Adults without HIV infection are recruited at community healthcare clinics in high TB incidence areas of the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Data regarding participants’ medical, social and medication usage will be collected, and clinical examinations and point-of-care tests documented. Reference tests for TB (chest radiographs and sputum tests for GeneXpert MTB/RIF Ultra®, Auramine smear and liquid cultures) and investigations to classify infection states [interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) nasopharyngeal swab and IgG], are done on all participants who meet the inclusion criteria. 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography combined with computerized tomography will be done on all close contacts (contacts) and healthy control (controls) participants. Participants are divided into 12 study groups representing a spectrum of TB clinical phenotypes and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection based on their TB status, exposure history, results of IGRA test at baseline and 3 months, SARS-CoV-2 serology, and PCR results, and for contacts and controls, PET-CT imaging findings indicative of sub-clinical TB lesions. Samples for experimental assays include whole blood for isolation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells and blood in PAXgene® tubes for RNA isolation. All SARS-CoV-2 PCR negative study participants undergo bronchoscopy for collecting bronchoalveolar lavage samples.

Discussion

The paired blood and BAL samples will be used for comprehensive analyses of the tissue-specific and systemic immunity that will include e.g., cytometry by time-of-flight analyses, RNA-sequencing, multiplex immunoassays, epigenetic analysis, and mechanistic studies of control of infection by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Results will be integrated with those from mice and non-human primate studies to provide a comprehensive analysis of protective pathways in natural and vaccine-induced immunity against Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07349-8.

Estimating the long-term effects of mass screening for latent and active tuberculosis in the Marshall Islands

BACKGROUND

Ambitious population-based screening programmes for latent and active tuberculosis (TB) were implemented in the Republic of the Marshall Islands in 2017 and 2018.

METHODS

We used a transmission dynamic model of TB informed by local data to capture the Marshall Islands epidemic's historical dynamics. We then used the model to project the future epidemic trajectory following the active screening interventions, as well as considering a counterfactual scenario with no intervention. We also simulated future scenarios including periodic interventions similar to those previously implemented, to assess their ability to reach the End TB Strategy targets and TB pre-elimination in the Marshall Islands.

RESULTS

The screening activities conducted in 2017 and 2018 were estimated to have reduced TB incidence and mortality by around one-third in 2020, and are predicted to achieve the End TB Strategy milestone of 50% incidence reduction by 2025 compared with 2015. Screening interventions had a considerably greater impact when latent TB screening and treatment were included, compared with active case finding alone. Such combined programmes implemented at the national level could achieve TB pre-elimination around 2040 if repeated every 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model suggests that it would be possible to achieve TB pre-elimination by 2040 in the Marshall Islands through frequent repetition of the same interventions as those already implemented in the country. It also highlights the importance of including latent infection testing in active screening activities.

Leveraging Antibody, B Cell and Fc Receptor Interactions to Understand Heterogeneous Immune Responses in Tuberculosis

Despite over a century of research, Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), continues to kill 1.5 million people annually. Though less than 10% of infected individuals develop active disease, the specific host immune responses that lead to Mtb transmission and death, as well as those that are protective, are not yet fully defined. Recent immune correlative studies demonstrate that the spectrum of infection and disease is more heterogenous than has been classically defined. Moreover, emerging translational and animal model data attribute a diverse immune repertoire to TB outcomes. Thus, protective and detrimental immune responses to Mtb likely encompass a framework that is broader than T helper type 1 (Th1) immunity. Antibodies, Fc receptor interactions and B cells are underexplored host responses to Mtb. Poised at the interface of initial bacterial host interactions and in granulomatous lesions, antibodies and Fc receptors expressed on macrophages, neutrophils, dendritic cells, natural killer cells, T and B cells have the potential to influence local and systemic adaptive immune responses. Broadening the paradigm of protective immunity will offer new paths to improve diagnostics and vaccines to reduce the morbidity and mortality of TB.

The Tuberculous Granuloma and Preexisting Immunity

Pulmonary granulomas are widely considered the epicenters of the immune response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB). Recent animal studies have revealed factors that either promote or restrict TB immunity within granulomas. These models, however, typically ignore the impact of preexisting immunity on cellular organization and function, an important consideration because most TB probably occurs through reinfection of previously exposed individuals. Human postmortem research from the pre-antibiotic era showed that infections in Mtb-naïve individuals (primary TB) versus those with prior Mtb exposure (postprimary TB) have distinct pathologic features. We review recent animal findings in TB granuloma biology, which largely reflect primary TB. We also discuss our current understanding of postprimary TB lesions, about which much less is known. Many knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding how preexisting immunity shapes granuloma structure and local immune responses at Mtb infection sites.

Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Immunology, Volume 40 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Understanding the tuberculosis granuloma: the matrix revolutions

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) causes the human disease tuberculosis (TB) and remains the top global infectious pandemic after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Furthermore, TB has killed many more humans than any other pathogen, after prolonged coevolution to optimise its pathogenic strategies. Full understanding of fundamental disease processes in humans is necessary to successfully combat this highly successful pathogen. While the importance of immunodeficiency has been long recognised, biologic therapies and unbiased approaches are providing unprecedented insights into the intricacy of the host-pathogen interaction. The nature of a protective response is more complex than previously hypothesised. Here, we integrate recent evidence from human studies and unbiased approaches to consider how Mtb causes human TB and highlight the recurring theme of extracellular matrix (ECM) turnover.

The impact of blood transcriptomic biomarker targeted tuberculosis preventive therapy in people living with HIV: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy is recommended for all people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite the elevated risk of TB amongst PLHIV, most of those eligible for preventive therapy would never develop TB. Tests which can identify individuals at greatest risk of disease would allow more efficient targeting of preventive therapy.

METHODS

We used mathematical modelling to estimate the potential impact of using a blood transcriptomic biomarker (RISK11) to target preventive therapy amongst PLHIV. We compared universal treatment to RISK11 targeted treatment and explored the effect of repeat screening of the population with RISK11.

RESULTS

Annual RISK11 screening, with preventive therapy provided to those testing positive, could avert 26% (95% CI 13-34) more cases over 10 years compared to one round of universal treatment. For the cost per case averted to be lower than universal treatment, the maximum cost of the RISK11 test was approximately 10% of the cost of preventive therapy. The benefit of RISK11 screening may be greatest amongst PLHIV on ART (compared to ART naïve individuals) due to the increased specificity of the test in this group.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarker targeted preventive therapy may be more effective than universal treatment amongst PLHIV in high incidence settings but would require repeat screening.

Achieving a "step change" in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a "step change" in the TB burden.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention.

RESULTS

A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450-10,200) cases and 1710 (1290-2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2-38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4-56.9) to health system strengthening.

CONCLUSIONS

A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.