Baseline, Time-Updated, and Cumulative HIV Care Metrics for Predicting Acute Myocardial Infarction and All-Cause Mortality

Systematic review on cumulative HIV viraemia among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral treatment and its association with mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND

We performed a systematic review to generate evidence on the association between cumulative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viraemia and health outcomes.

METHODS

Quantitative studies reporting on HIV cumulative viraemia (CV) and its association with health outcomes among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) were included. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science and conference abstracts from 1 January 2008 to 1 August 2022.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 26 studies. The association between CV and mortality depended on the study population, methods used to calculate CV and its level. Higher CV was not consistently associated with greater risk of acquire immunodeficiency syndrome-defining clinical conditions. However, four studies present a strong relationship between CV and cardiovascular disease. The risk was not confirmed in relation of increased hazards of stroke. Studies that assessed the effect of CV on the risk of cancer reported a positive association between CV and malignancy, although the effect may differ for different types of cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

CV is associated with adverse health outcomes in PLHIV on ART, especially at higher levels. However, its role in clinical and programmatic monitoring and management of PLHIV on ART is yet to be established.

Combining Charlson comorbidity and VACS indices improves prognostic accuracy for all-cause mortality for patients with and without HIV in the Veterans Health Administration

Introduction

As people age with HIV (PWH), many comorbid diseases are more common than among age matched comparators without HIV (PWoH). While the Veterans Aging Cohort (VACS) Index 2.0 accurately predicts mortality in PWH using age and clinical biomarkers, the only included comorbidity is hepatitis C. We asked whether adding comorbid disease groupings from the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) improves the accuracy of VACS Index.

Methods

To maximize our ability to model mortality among older age groups, we began with PWoH in Veterans Health Administration (VA) from 2007-2017, divided into development and validation samples. Baseline predictors included age, and components of CCI and VACS Index (excluding CD4 count and HIV RNA). Patients were followed until December 31, 2021. We used Cox models to develop the VACS-CCI score and estimated mortality using a parametric (gamma) survival model. We compared accuracy using C-statistics and calibration curves in validation overall and within subgroups (gender, age

Results

The analytic sample consisted of 6,588,688 PWoH and 30,539 PWH. Among PWoH/PWH, median age was 65/55 years; 6%/3% were women; 15%/48% were Black and 5%/7% Hispanic. VACS-CCI provided the best discrimination (C-statistic = 0.81) with excellent calibration (predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped) overall and within subgroups. When VACS-CCI was applied to PWH it demonstrated similar discrimination as VACS Index 2.0 (C-statistic = 0.77 for both) but superior calibration among those with CD4 < 200. Discrimination was improved when CD4 and HIV RNA were added VACS-CCI (C-statistic = 0.79). Liver and kidney disease, congestive heart failure, malignancy, and dementia were negatively associated with CD4 (p-trends all <0.0001).

Discussion

Among PWH and PWoH in VA care, age alone weakly discriminates risk of mortality. VACS Index 2.0, CCI, and VACS-CCI all provide better discrimination, but VACS-CCI is more consistently calibrated. The association of comorbid diseases with lower CD4 underscores the likely role of HIV in non-AIDS conditions. Future work will include adding CD4 and HIV RNA to VACS-CCI and validating it in independent data.

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Key Words

• Charlson Comorbidity Index
• HIV
• VACS Index
• mortality
• prediction

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Affiliation(s)

Kathleen A. McGinnis VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States
Amy C. Justice VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
Vincent C. Marconi The Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Emory University School of Medicine and Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA, United States VA Medical Center, Decatur, GA, United States
Maria C. Rodriguez-Barradas Infectious Diseases Section, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, United States Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
Ronald G. Hauser VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Department of Laboratory Medicine, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
Krisann K. Oursler Department of Internal Medicine, Virginia Tech Carilion School of Medicine, Roanoke, VA, United States VA Salem Healthcare System, Salem, VA, United States
Sheldon T. Brown James J. Peters VA Medical Center, Bronx, NY, United States
Kendall J. Bryant National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Bethesda, MD, United States
Janet P. Tate VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, United States Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
for the Veterans Aging Cohort Study

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Aging-Related Comorbidity Burden Among Women and Men With or At-Risk for HIV in the US, 2008-2019

Importance

Despite aging-related comorbidities representing a growing threat to quality-of-life and mortality among persons with HIV (PWH), clinical guidance for comorbidity screening and prevention is lacking. Understanding comorbidity distribution and severity by sex and gender is essential to informing guidelines for promoting healthy aging in adults with HIV.

Objective

To assess the association of human immunodeficiency virus on the burden of aging-related comorbidities among US adults in the modern treatment era.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional analysis included data from US multisite observational cohort studies of women (Women's Interagency HIV Study) and men (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study) with HIV and sociodemographically comparable HIV-seronegative individuals. Participants were prospectively followed from 2008 for men and 2009 for women (when more than 80% of participants with HIV reported antiretroviral therapy use) through last observation up until March 2019, at which point outcomes were assessed. Data were analyzed from July 2020 to April 2021.

Exposures

HIV, age, sex.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Comorbidity burden (the number of total comorbidities out of 10 assessed) per participant; secondary outcomes included individual comorbidity prevalence. Linear regression assessed the association of HIV status, age, and sex with comorbidity burden.

Results

A total of 5929 individuals were included (median [IQR] age, 54 [46-61] years; 3238 women [55%]; 2787 Black [47%], 1153 Hispanic or other [19%], 1989 White [34%]). Overall, unadjusted mean comorbidity burden was higher among women vs men (3.4 [2.1] vs 3.2 [1.8]; P = .02). Comorbidity prevalence differed by sex for hypertension (2188 of 3238 women [68%] vs 2026 of 2691 men [75%]), psychiatric illness (1771 women [55%] vs 1565 men [58%]), dyslipidemia (1312 women [41%] vs 1728 men [64%]), liver (1093 women [34%] vs 1032 men [38%]), bone disease (1364 women [42%] vs 512 men [19%]), lung disease (1245 women [38%] vs 259 men [10%]), diabetes (763 women [24%] vs 470 men [17%]), cardiovascular (493 women [15%] vs 407 men [15%]), kidney (444 women [14%] vs 404 men [15%]) disease, and cancer (219 women [7%] vs 321 men [12%]). In an unadjusted model, the estimated mean difference in comorbidity burden among women vs men was significantly greater in every age strata among PWH: age under 40 years, 0.33 (95% CI, 0.03-0.63); ages 40 to 49 years, 0.37 (95% CI, 0.12-0.61); ages 50 to 59 years, 0.38 (95% CI, 0.20-0.56); ages 60 to 69 years, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.42-0.90); ages 70 years and older, 0.62 (95% CI, 0.07-1.17). However, the difference between sexes varied by age strata among persons without HIV: age under 40 years, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.92); ages 40 to 49 years, -0.07 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.31); ages 50 to 59 years, 0.88 (95% CI, 0.62 to 1.14); ages 60 to 69 years, 1.39 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.72); ages 70 years and older, 0.33 (95% CI, -0.53 to 1.19) (P for interaction = .001). In the covariate-adjusted model, findings were slightly attenuated but retained statistical significance.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, the overall burden of aging-related comorbidities was higher in women vs men, particularly among PWH, and the distribution of comorbidity prevalence differed by sex. Comorbidity screening and prevention strategies tailored by HIV serostatus and sex or gender may be needed.

Plasma Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Angiopoietin-2, and C-Reactive Protein Levels Predict Subsequent Type 1 Myocardial Infarction in Persons With Treated HIV Infection

BACKGROUND

HIV infection leads to endothelial activation, promoting platelet adhesion, and accelerating atherosclerosis. Our goal was to determine whether biomarkers of endothelial activation and hemostasis/thrombosis were elevated in people with treated HIV (PWH) before myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS

In a case-control study nested within the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort, we compared 69 adjudicated cases with type 1 MI with 138 controls matched for antiretroviral therapy regimen. We measured angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1), a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with a thrombospondin type 1 motif, member 13 (ADAMTS13), von Willebrand factor, C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), plasminogen activation inhibitor-1, P-selectin, serum amyloid-A, soluble CD14, and apolipoprotein A1 in stored plasma. Conditional logistic regression identified associations with subsequent MI, with and without adjustment for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) and Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) scores.

RESULTS

Higher IL-6 was associated with MI after adjustment for ASCVD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.51, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.05 to 2.17 per standard-deviation-scaled log 2 increment). In a separate model adjusting for VACS score, higher ANG-2 (AOR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.14), higher CRP (AOR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.00), and higher IL-6 (AOR 1.68, 95% CI: 1.17 to 2.41) were associated with MI. In a sensitivity analysis excluding PWH with viral load ≥400 copies/mL, higher IL-6 remained associated with MI after adjustment for ASCVD score and after adjustment for VACS score.

CONCLUSIONS

Among PWH, higher levels of plasma IL-6, CRP, and ANG-2 predict subsequent type 1 MI, independent of conventional risk scores. IL-6 had the most consistent associations with type 1 MI, regardless of viral load suppression.

Cardiovascular events in delayed presentation of HIV: the prospective PISCIS cohort study

Objectives

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher cardiovascular risk than the general population. It remains unclear, however, whether the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is higher in late HIV presenters (LP; CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL at HIV diagnosis) compared to PWH diagnosed early. We aimed to assess the rates of incident cardiovascular events (CVEs) following ART initiation among LP compared to non-LP.

Methods

From the prospective, multicentre PISCIS cohort, we included all adult people with HIV (PWH) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2005 and 2019 without prior CVE. Additional data were extracted from public health registries. The primary outcome was the incidence of first CVE (ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular, or peripheral vascular disease). The secondary outcome was all-cause mortality after the first CVE. We used Poisson regression.

Results

We included 3,317 PWH [26 589.1 person/years (PY)]: 1761 LP and 1556 non-LP. Overall, 163 (4.9%) experienced a CVE [IR 6.1/1000PY (95%CI: 5.3-7.1)]: 105 (6.0%) LP vs. 58 (3.7%) non-LP. No differences were observed in the multivariate analysis adjusting for age, transmission mode, comorbidities, and calendar time, regardless of CD4 at ART initiation [aIRR 0.92 (0.62-1.36) and 0.84 (0.56-1.26) in LP with CD4 count <200 and 200- ≤ 350 cells/μL, respectively, compared to non-LP]. Overall mortality was 8.5% in LP versus 2.3% in non-LP (p < 0.001). Mortality after the CVE was 31/163 (19.0%), with no differences between groups [aMRR 1.24 (0.45-3.44)]. Women vs. MSM and individuals with chronic lung and liver disease experienced particularly high mortality after the CVE [aMRR 5.89 (1.35-25.60), 5.06 (1.61-15.91), and 3.49 (1.08-11.26), respectively]. Sensitivity analyses including only PWH surviving the first 2 years yielded similar results.

Conclusion

CVD remains a common cause of morbidity and mortality among PWH. LP without prior CVD did not exhibit an increased long-term risk of CVE compared with non-LP. Identifying traditional cardiovascular risk factors is essential for CVD risk reduction in this population.

Development and Validation of the HIV-CARDIO-PREDICT Score to Estimate the Risk of Cardiovascular Events in HIV-Infected Patients

IMPORTANCE

Commonly used risk assessment tools for cardiovascular disease might not be accurate for HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a model to accurately predict the 10-year cardiovascular disease (CV) risk of HIV-infected patients.

DESIGN

In this retrospective cohort study, adult HIV-infected patients seen at Boston Medical Center between March 2012 and January 2017 were divided into model development and validation cohorts.

SETTING

Boston Medical Center, a tertiary, academic medical center.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult HIV-infected patients, seen in inpatient and outpatient setting.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

We used logistic regression to create a prediction risk model for cardiovascular events using data from the development cohort. Using a point-based risk-scoring system, we summarized the relationship between risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We then used the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) to evaluate model discrimination. Finally, we tested the model using a validation cohort.

RESULTS

1914 individuals met the inclusion criteria. The model had excellent discrimination for CVD risk [AUC 0.989; (95% CI: 0.986-0.993)] and included the following 11 variables: male sex (95% CI: 2.53-3.99), African American race/ethnicity (95% CI: 1.50-3.13), current age (95% CI: 0.07-0.13), age at HIV diagnosis (95% CI: -0.10-(-0.02)), peak HIV viral load (95% CI: 9.89 × 10-7-3.00 × 10-6), nadir CD4 lymphocyte count (95% CI: -0.03-(-0.02)), hypertension (95% CI: 0.20-1.54), hyperlipidemia (95% CI: 3.03-4.60), diabetes (95% CI: 0.61-1.89), chronic kidney disease (95% CI: 1.26-2.62), and smoking (95% CI: 0.12-2.39). The eleven-parameter multiple logistic regression model had excellent discrimination [AUC 0.957; (95% CI: 0.938-0.975)] when applied to the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Our novel HIV-CARDIO-PREDICT Score may provide a rapid and accurate evaluation of CV disease risk among HIV-infected patients and inform prevention measures.

Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models Among People Living With HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Extant data on the performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score models in people living with HIV have not been synthesized.

Objective

To synthesize available data on the performance of the various CVD risk scores in people living with HIV.

Data Sources

PubMed and Embase were searched from inception through January 31, 2021.

Study Selection

Selected studies (1) were chosen based on cohort design, (2) included adults with a diagnosis of HIV, (3) assessed CVD outcomes, and (4) had available data on a minimum of 1 CVD risk score.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Relevant data related to study characteristics, CVD outcome, and risk prediction models were extracted in duplicate. Measures of calibration and discrimination are presented in tables and qualitatively summarized. Additionally, where possible, estimates of discrimination and calibration measures were combined and stratified by type of risk model.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Measures of calibration and discrimination.

Results

Nine unique observational studies involving 75 304 people (weighted average age, 42 years; 59 490 male individuals [79%]) living with HIV were included. In the studies reporting these data, 86% were receiving antiretroviral therapy and had a weighted average CD4+ count of 449 cells/μL. Included in the study were current smokers (50%), patients with diabetes (5%), and patients with hypertension (25%). Ten risk prediction scores (6 in the general population and 4 in the HIV-specific population) were analyzed. Most risk scores had a moderate performance in discrimination (C statistic: 0.7-0.8), without a significant difference in performance between the risk scores of the general and HIV-specific populations. One of the HIV-specific risk models (Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs Cohort 2016) and 2 of the general population risk models (Framingham Risk Score [FRS] and Pooled Cohort Equation [PCE] 10 year) had the highest performance in discrimination. In general, models tended to underpredict CVD risk, except for FRS and PCE 10-year scores, which were better calibrated. There was substantial heterogeneity across the studies, with only a few studies contributing data for each risk score.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that general population and HIV-specific CVD risk models had comparable, moderate discrimination ability in people living with HIV, with a general tendency to underpredict risk. These results reinforce the current recommendations provided by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines to consider HIV as a risk-enhancing factor when estimating CVD risk.

Cumulative Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 Viremia Is Associated With Increased Risk of Multimorbidity Among US Women With HIV, 1997-2019

Background

To evaluate the effect of cumulative human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 viremia on aging-related multimorbidity among women with HIV (WWH), we analyzed data collected prospectively among women who achieved viral suppression after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (1997-2019).

Methods

We included WWH with ≥2 plasma HIV-1 viral loads (VL) <200 copies/mL within a 2-year period (baseline) following self-reported ART use. Primary outcome was multimorbidity (≥2 nonacquired immune deficiency syndrome comorbidities [NACM] of 5 total assessed). The trapezoidal rule calculated viremia copy-years (VCY) as area-under-the-VL-curve. Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association of time-updated cumulative VCY with incident multimorbidity and with incidence of each NACM, adjusting for important covariates (eg, age, CD4 count, etc).

Results

Eight hundred six WWH contributed 6368 women-years, with median 12 (Q1-Q3, 7-23) VL per participant. At baseline, median age was 39 years, 56% were Black, and median CD4 was 534 cells/mm3. Median time-updated cumulative VCY was 5.4 (Q1-Q3, 4.7-6.9) log10 copy-years/mL. Of 211 (26%) WWH who developed multimorbidity, 162 (77%) had incident hypertension, 133 (63%) had dyslipidemia, 60 (28%) had diabetes, 52 (25%) had cardiovascular disease, and 32 (15%) had kidney disease. Compared with WWH who had time-updated cumulative VCY <5 log10, the adjusted hazard ratio of multimorbidity was 1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-3.08) and 3.78 (95% CI, 2.17-6.58) for those with VCY 5-6.9 and ≥7 log10 copy-years/mL, respectively (P < .0001). Higher time-updated cumulative VCY increased the risk of each NACM.

Conclusions

Among ART-treated WWH, greater cumulative viremia increased the risk of multimorbidity and of developing each NACM, and hence this may be a prognostically useful biomarker for NACM risk assessment in this population.

Associations between HIV viremia during antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between HIV viremia exposure during antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

DESIGN

Nationwide observational cohort.

METHODS

Participants (age >15 years) from the Swedish nationwide InfCareHIV register initiating ART 1996-2017 were categorized in a time-updated manner into four viremia categories, starting from 12 months after ART initiation: suppression (<50 copies/ml), low-level viremia (50-199 copies/ml and 200-999 copies/ml, respectively), and high-level viremia (≥1000 copies/ml). In addition, cumulative viremia was estimated as the area under the log viral load (VL) curve. Proportional subhazard models adjusted for sex, age, pre-ART CD4 and VL, injection drug use, and country of birth were used to analyze the association between viremia exposure and CVD risk (ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure; data obtained by linkage to national registers), accounting for the competing risk of non-CVD death.

RESULTS

In all, 337 cases of CVD were observed during 44 937 person-years of follow-up ( n  = 6562). Higher viremia exposure was associated with CVD, both when parameterized as cumulative viremia (adjusted subhazard ratio [aSHR] per 1 log 10  copy × year/ml, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.05) and as viremia category (aSHR for high-level viremia versus suppression, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.03-2.05). We observed no association between CVD and low-level viremia compared with those with suppression.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher exposure to HIV viremia was linked to CVD in ART recipients, whereas no increased risk was detected for people with low-level viremia compared with viral suppression. Causal inference is limited by the observational nature of this study.

Discrimination and Calibration of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 for Predicting Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in North America

BACKGROUND

The updated Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0 combines general and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-specific biomarkers to generate a continuous score that accurately discriminates risk of mortality in diverse cohorts of persons with HIV (PWH), but a score alone is difficult to interpret. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration (NA-ACCORD), we translate VACS Index 2.0 scores into validated probability estimates of mortality.

METHODS

Because complete mortality ascertainment is essential for accurate calibration, we restricted analyses to cohorts with mortality from the National Death Index or equivalent sources. VACS Index 2.0 components were ascertained from October 1999 to April 2018. Mortality was observed up to March 2019. Calibration curves compared predicted (estimated by fitting a gamma model to the score) to observed mortality overall and within subgroups: cohort (VACS/NA-ACCORD subset), sex, age <50 or ≥50 years, race/ethnicity, HIV-1 RNA ≤500 or >500 copies/mL, CD4 count <350 or ≥350 cells/µL, and years 1999-2009 or 2010-2018. Because mortality rates have decreased over time, the final model was limited to 2010-2018.

RESULTS

Among 37230 PWH in VACS and 8061 PWH in the NA-ACCORD subset, median age was 53 and 44 years; 3% and 19% were women; and 48% and 39% were black. Discrimination in NA-ACCORD (C-statistic = 0.842 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .830-.854]) was better than in VACS (C-statistic = 0.813 [95% CI, .809-.817]). Predicted and observed mortality largely overlapped in VACS and the NA-ACCORD subset, overall and within subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this validation, VACS Index 2.0 can reliably estimate probability of all-cause mortality, at various follow-up times, among PWH in North America.

Clinical effects of durability of immunosuppression in virologically suppressed ART-initiating persons with HIV in Latin America. A retrospective cohort study

Background

Clinical outcomes are rarely studied in virologically suppressed people living with HIV (PWH) and incomplete CD4 recovery. To explore whether time living with severe immunosuppression predict clinical outcomes better than baseline or time updated CD4, we estimated the association between cumulative percentage of time with CD4 <200 cells/μL during viral suppression (VS) (%tCD4<200), and mortality and comorbidities during 2000-2019.

Methods

In a retrospective cohort analysis, we followed PWH initiating ART in Latin America from first VS (HIV-RNA<200 copies/μL) to death, virological failure or loss to follow-up. We fit Cox models to estimate risk of death and/or AIDS-defining and serious non-AIDS-defining events (ADE and SNADE -cancer, cardiovascular, liver, and renal diseases) by %tCD4<200 (continuous variable). We predicted survival probabilities for each event and calculated risks of hypothetical cases of different %tCD4<200.

Findings

In 8,369 patients with 34·9 months of follow-up (median, IQR: 16·7, 69·1), 4,274 (51%) started ART with CD4<200 cells/μL. Median %tCD4<200 was 0% (IQR: 0, 15%). We identified 195 (2·3%) deaths and 584 (7·2%) patients with ADE/SNADE. For an increased %tCD4<200 of 15% (e.g., 15% vs. 0%), the adjusted relative hazard (aHR) of death was 1·27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1·19 - 1·35), of ADE/SNADE was 1·13 (95%CI: 1·09 - 1·17), of SNADE was 0·96 (95%CI: 0·89 - 1·02) and of death/ADE/SNADE was 1·11 (95%CI: 1·07 - 1·14). Estimates were similar after adjusting for time updated CD4 count.

Interpretation

In virologically suppressed PWH, increased time living with severe immunosuppression had an increased risk of death and ADE/SNADE in this Latin American cohort, independently of time updated CD4 count.

Funding

This work was supported by the NIH-funded Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet, U01AI069923), a member cohort of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (leDEA). This award is funded by the following institutes: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute Of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD), National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institute Of Allergy And Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institute Of Mental Health (NIMH), the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA), the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), and the Fogarty International Center (FIC). Specific funding was provided from the Fogarty International Center (FIC) for lead author, Yanink Caro-Vega, for the Fogarty-IeDEA Mentorship Program (FIMP).

Association of the VACS Index With Hospitalization Among People With HIV in the NA-ACCORD

BACKGROUND

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher hospitalization rate than the general population. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index at study entry well predicts hospitalization in PWH, but it is unknown if the time-updated parameter improves hospitalization prediction. We assessed the association of parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 with the 5-year risk of hospitalization.

SETTING

PWH ≥30 years old with at least 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use and contributing hospitalization data from 2000 to 2016 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included. Three parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 were assessed and categorized by quartile: (1) "baseline" measurement at study entry; (2) time-updated measurements; and (3) cumulative scores calculated using the trapezoidal rule.

METHODS

Discrete-time proportional hazard models estimated the crude and adjusted associations (and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) of the VACS Index parameterizations and all-cause hospitalizations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) assessed the model fit with each of the VACS Index parameters.

RESULTS

Among 7289 patients, 1537 were hospitalized. Time-updated VACS Index fitted hospitalization best with a more distinct dose-response relationship [score <43: reference; score 43-55: aHR = 1.93 (95% CI: 1.66 to 2.23); score 55-68: aHR = 3.63 (95% CI: 3.12 to 4.23); score ≥68: aHR = 9.98 (95% CI: 8.52 to 11.69)] than study entry and cumulative VACS Index after adjusting for known risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Time-updated VACS Index 2.0 had the strongest association with hospitalization and best fit to the data. Health care providers should consider using it when assessing hospitalization risk among PWH.

Incident Non-AIDS Comorbidity Burden Among Women With or at Risk for Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection may accelerate development of aging-related non-AIDS comorbidities (NACMs). The incidence of NACMs is poorly characterized among women living with HIV (WLWH).

METHODS

WLWH and HIV-seronegative participants followed in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) through 2009 (when >80% of WLWH used antiretroviral therapy) or onward were included, with outcomes measured through 31 March 2018. Sociodemographics, clinical covariates, and prevalent NACM were determined at enrollment. We used Poisson regression models to determine incident NACM burden (number of NACMs accrued through most recent WIHS visit out of 10 total NACMs assessed) by HIV serostatus and age.

RESULTS

There were 3129 participants (2239 WLWH, 890 HIV seronegative) with 36 589 person-years of follow-up. At enrollment, median age was 37 years, 65% were black, and 47% currently smoked. In fully adjusted analyses, WLWH had a higher incident NACM rate compared with HIV-seronegative women (incidence rate ratio, 1.36 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.81]). Incident NACM burden was higher among WLWH vs HIV-seronegative women in most age strata (HIV × age interaction: P = .0438), and women <25 years old had the greatest incidence rate ratio by HIV serostatus at 1.48 (95% CI, 1.19-1.84) compared with those in older age groups. Incident NACM burden was associated with traditional comorbidity risk factors but not HIV-specific indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident NACM burden was higher among WLWH than HIV-seronegative women. This difference was most dramatic among women aged <25 years, a group for whom routine comorbidity screening is not prioritized. Established non-HIV comorbidity risk factors were significantly associated with incident NACM burden. More data are needed to inform best practices for NACM screening, prevention, and management among WLWH, particularly young women.

Long-term Patterns of Self-reported Opioid Use, VACS Index, and Mortality Among People with HIV Engaged in Care

Longitudinal analyses of opioid use and overall disease severity among people with HIV (PWH) are lacking. We used joint-trajectory and Cox proportional hazard modeling to examine the relationship between self-reported opioid use and the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index 2.0, a validated measure of disease severity and mortality, among PWH engaged in care. Using data from 2002 and 2018, trajectory modeling classified 20% of 3658 PWH in low (i.e., lower risk of mortality), 40% in moderate, 28% in high, and 12% in extremely high VACS Index trajectories. Compared to those with moderate VACS Index trajectory, PWH with an extremely high trajectory were more likely to have high, then de-escalating opioid use (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 95% confidence interval [CI] 5·17 [3·19-8·37]) versus stable, infrequent use. PWH who report high frequency opioid use have increased disease severity and mortality risk over time, even when frequency of opioid use de-escalates.

Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years and Hypertension in People Living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the association between HIV viral load (VL) and hypertension is inconsistent. In this study, we investigated the relationship using viremia copy-years (VCY), a cumulative measure of HIV plasma viral burden.

METHODS

Data were analyzed for 686 PLWH in the Florida Cohort Study, who had at least five years of VL data before the baseline. VL data were extracted from Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System (eHARS) and used to define peak VL (pVL), recent VL (rVL), and undetectable VL (uVL: rVL<50copies/mL). A five-year VCY (log10 copy × years/mL) before the baseline investigation, was calculated and divided into 5 groups (≤2.7, 2.8-3.7, 3.8-4.7, 4.8-5.7 and >5.7) for analysis. Hypertension was determined based on hypertension diagnosis from medical records. Multivariable logistic regression was used for association analysis.

RESULTS

Of the total sample, 277 (40.4%) participants were hypertensive. Compared to the participants with lowest VCY (≤2.7 log10 copy × years/mL), the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval [95% CI] for hypertension of the remaining four groups, in order, were 1.91 [1.11, 3.29], 1.91 [1.03, 3.53], 2.27 [1.29, 3.99], and 1.25 [0.65, 2.42], respectively, controlling for confounders. The association was independent of pVL, rVL, and uVL, each of which was not significantly associated with hypertension.

CONCLUSION

Persistent HIV infection is a risk factor for hypertension among PLWH. Information provided by VCY is more effective than single time-point VL measures in investigating HIV infection- hypertension relationship. The findings of this study support the significance of continuous viral suppression in hypertension prevention among PLWH.

HIV viral exposure and mortality in a multicenter ambulatory HIV adult cohort, United States, 1995-2016

The aim of this study was to identify viral exposure (VE) measures and their relationship to mortality risk among persons with HIV.Prospective multicenter observational study to compare VE formulae.Eligible participants initiated first combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) between March 1, 1995 and June 30, 2015. We included 1645 participants followed for ≥6 months after starting first cART, with cART prescribed ≥75% of time, who underwent ≥2 plasma viral load (VL) and ≥1 CD4+ T-lymphocyte cell (CD4) measurement during observation. We evaluated all-cause mortality from 6 months after cART initiation until June 30, 2016. VE was quantified using 2 time-updated variables: viremia copy-years and percent of person-years (%PY) spent >200 or 50 copies/mL. Cox models were fit to estimate associations between VE and mortality.Participants contributed 10,453 person years [py], with median 14 VLs per patient. Median %PY >200 or >50 were 10% (interquartile range: 1%-47%) and 26% (interquartile range: 6%-72%), respectively. There were 115 deaths, for an overall mortality rate of 1.19 per 100 person years. In univariate models, each measure of VE was significantly associated with mortality risk, as were older age, public insurance, injection drug use HIV risk history, and lower pre-cART CD4. Based on model fit, most recent viral load and %PY >200 copies/mL provided the best combination of VE factors to predict mortality, although all VE combinations evaluated performed well.The combination of most recent VL and %PY >200 copies/mL best predicted mortality, although all evaluated VE measures performed well.

HIV Viremia and Risk of Stroke Among People Living with HIV Who Are Using Antiretroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Rates of stroke are higher in people living with HIV compared with age-matched uninfected individuals. Causes of elevated stroke risk, including the role of viremia, are poorly defined.

METHODS

Between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2014, we identified incident strokes among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy at five sites across the United States. We considered three parameterizations of viral load (VL) including (1) baseline (most recent VL before study entry), (2) time-updated, and (3) cumulative VL (copy-days/mL of virus). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke risk comparing the 75th percentile ("high VL") to the 25th percentile ("low VL") of baseline and time-updated VL. We used marginal structural Cox models, with most models adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors, to estimate HRs for stroke associated with cumulative VL.

RESULTS

Among 15,974 people living with HIV, 139 experienced a stroke (113 ischemic; 18 hemorrhagic; eight were unknown type) over a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Median baseline VL was 38 copies/mL (interquartile interval: 24, 3,420). High baseline VL was associated with increased risk of both ischemic (HR: 1.3; 95% CI = 0.96-1.7) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 3.1; 95% CI = 1.6-5.9). In time-updated models, high VL was also associated with an increased risk of any stroke (HR: 1.8; 95% CI = 1.4-2.3). We observed no association between cumulative VL and stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated HIV VL may increase stroke risk, regardless of previous VL levels.

Influence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on the Management and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction With Cardiogenic Shock

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the outcomes of acute myocardial infarction-cardiogenic shock (AMI-CS) in patients with HIV infection and AIDS.

SETTING

Twenty percent sample of all US hospitals.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of AMI-CS during 2000-2017 from the National Inpatient Sample was evaluated for concomitant HIV and AIDS. Outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality and use of cardiac procedures. A subgroup analysis was performed for those with and without AIDS within the HIV cohort.

RESULTS

A total 557,974 AMI-CS admissions were included, with HIV and AIDS in 1321 (0.2%) and 985 (0.2%), respectively. The HIV cohort was younger (54.1 vs. 69.0 years), more often men, of non-White race, uninsured, from a lower socioeconomic status, and with higher comorbidity (all P < 0.001). The HIV cohort had comparable multiorgan failure (37.8% vs. 39.0%) and cardiac arrest (28.7% vs. 27.4%) (P > 0.05). The cohorts with and without HIV had comparable rates of coronary angiography (70.2% vs. 69.0%; P = 0.37) but less frequent early coronary angiography (hospital day zero) (39.1% vs. 42.5%; P < 0.001). The cohort with HIV had higher unadjusted but comparable adjusted in-hospital mortality compared with those without [26.9% vs. 37.4%; adjusted odds ratio 1.04 (95% confidence interval: 0.90 to 1.21); P = 0.61]. In the HIV cohort, AIDS was associated with higher in-hospital mortality [28.8% vs. 21.1%; adjusted odds ratio 4.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.89 to 9.00); P < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

The cohort with HIV had comparable rates of cardiac procedures and in-hospital mortality; however, those with AIDS had higher in-hospital mortality.

Machine learning prediction of neurocognitive impairment among people with HIV using clinical and multimodal magnetic resonance imaging data

Diagnosis of HIV-associated neurocognitive impairment (NCI) continues to be a clinical challenge. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for NCI among people with HIV using clinical- and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived features. The sample included 101 adults with chronic HIV disease. NCI was determined using a standardized neuropsychological testing battery comprised of seven domains. MRI features included gray matter volume from high-resolution anatomical scans and white matter integrity from diffusion-weighted imaging. Clinical features included demographics, substance use, and routine laboratory tests. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator Logistic regression was used to perform variable selection on MRI features. These features were subsequently used to train a support vector machine (SVM) to predict NCI. Three different classification tasks were performed: one used only clinical features; a second used only selected MRI features; a third used both clinical and selected MRI features. Model performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity with a tenfold cross-validation. The SVM classifier that combined selected MRI with clinical features outperformed the model using clinical features or MRI features alone (AUC: 0.83 vs. 0.62 vs. 0.79; accuracy: 0.80 vs. 0.65 vs. 0.72; sensitivity: 0.86 vs. 0.85 vs. 0.86; specificity: 0.71 vs. 0.37 vs. 0.52). Our results provide preliminary evidence that combining clinical and MRI features can increase accuracy in predicting NCI and could be developed as a potential tool for NCI diagnosis in HIV clinical practice.

Strengths and Limitations of the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index as a Measure of Physiologic Frailty

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index (VACS Index) is an index comprised of routine clinical laboratory tests that accurately and generalizably predicts all-cause mortality among those living with and without HIV infection. Increasing evidence supports its use as a measure of physiologic frailty among those aging with HIV because of its associations with frailty related outcomes including mortality, hospitalization, fragility fractures, serious falls, pneumonia, cognitive decline, delirium, and functional decline. In this review, we explore the evidence supporting the validity (construct, correlative, and predictive), responsiveness, and feasibility of the VACS Index as an early indicator of physiologic frailty. We also consider its limitations.

Electrocardiographic abnormalities among people with HIV in Shanghai, China

People living with HIV (PLWH) have an excess risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are independently predictive of incident cardiovascular events in the general population. Our study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and correlates of ECG abnormalities among PLWH in Shanghai, China. We used a cross-sectional design to collect data from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, China. A total of 587 HIV-infected patients aged between 18 and 75 years were recruited between January 2015 and February 2016. The overall prevalence of any type of ECG abnormalities was 53.3%. The prevalence of sinus tachycardia, ST-T segment elevation and left ventricular hypertrophy was 23.0%, 18.1%, and 6.8%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that ST-T segment elevation was positively associated with higher baseline HIV viral load (≥ 4 log₁₀ copies/mL), and sinus tachycardia was negatively associated with older age but positively associated with lower CD4 cell count, higher baseline HIV viral load (≥ 4 log₁₀ copies/mL) and higher lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) level (≥133 mg/dL). Any coded ECG abnormality was positively associated with higher baseline HIV viral load (≥ 4 log₁₀ copies/mL). ECG abnormalities including sinus tachycardia and ST-T segment elevation are prevalent among Chinese HIV patients, which are significantly associated with immunodeficiency and HIV viral load. Routine ECG screening may be an important part of HIV clinical care in China.

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index is not associated with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders in Uganda

The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index has been associated with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) in some populations but has not been studied in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated whether the VACS Index is associated with HAND in a rural population in Rakai, Uganda. HIV-infected (HIV+) adults on antiretroviral therapy underwent a neurocognitive battery for determination of HAND stage using Frascati criteria. VACS component scores were recorded for all participants. Out of 156 study participants, HAND stages were 49% normal cognition, 15% asymptomatic neurocognitive impairment, 31% minor neurocognitive disorder, and 7% HIV-associated dementia. There was no significant association between VACS Index and any HAND stage. In this first study of the VACS Index in sub-Saharan Africa, we found no association between VACS Index score and HAND.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and CD4 Nadir Predict Mortality Following Noncommunicable Disease Diagnosis in Adults Living with HIV

Incidence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD), cirrhosis, and non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs), have been associated with HIV viremia, CD4 cell counts, and CD4/CD8 ratio in persons living with HIV (PLWH). This study examined the importance of these markers to mortality risk following NCD diagnosis. We examined factors associated with mortality following incident CVD, cirrhosis, or NADCs in a clinical cohort of PLWH between 1998 and 2015. We calculated Kaplan-Meier estimates and used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. We included 341 patients with NCDs (CVD = 169, cancer = 103, and cirrhosis = 67), of whom 129 died. Median age at NCD diagnosis was 49 years and median proportion of time before NCD with virologic suppression was 64%. Median survival after CVD was longer than for cancer or cirrhosis (11.6 years vs. 4.8 and 3.4 years, respectively; log rank test p < .001). In multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, higher CD4/CD8 ratio preceding NCD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] per 0.1 increase = 0.92 [95% confidence interval 0.85-0.99]) and higher CD4 nadir (aHR per 100 cells/μL = 0.84 [0.72-0.97]) were associated with decreased mortality risk. Neither CD4 cell count before NCD nor HIV viremia was statistically associated with mortality in adjusted models. When restricted to 116 patients with virologic suppression for ≥80% of time before NCD, only CD4 nadir was associated with mortality risk. Low CD4/CD8 ratio and CD4 nadir were associated with increased mortality risk after NCD, suggesting that prior immunosuppression or ongoing immune imbalance remain important for outcomes following serious NCDs.

Risk of myocardial infarction among people living with HIV: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading non-AIDS-defining causes of death among HIV-positive (HIV+) individuals. However, the evidence surrounding specific components of CVD risk remains inconclusive. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the available evidence and establish the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) among HIV+ compared with uninfected individuals. We also examined MI risk within subgroups of HIV+ individuals according to exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), ART class/regimen, CD4 cell count and plasma viral load (pVL) levels.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews until 18 July 2018. Furthermore, we scanned recent HIV conference abstracts (CROI, IAS/AIDS) and bibliographies of relevant articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Original studies published after December 1999 and reporting comparative data relating to the rate of MI among HIV+ individuals were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers working in duplicate, independently extracted data. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and reported as relative risk (RR) with 95% CI.

RESULTS

Thirty-two of the 8130 identified records were included in the review. The pooled RR suggests that HIV+ individuals have a greater risk of MI compared with uninfected individuals (RR: 1.73; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.08). Depending on risk stratification, there was moderate variation according to ART uptake (RR, ART-treated=1.80; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.77; ART-untreated HIV+ individuals: 1.25; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.67, both relative to uninfected individuals). We found low CD4 count, high pVL and certain ART characteristics including cumulative ART exposure, any/cumulative use of protease inhibitors as a class, and exposure to specific ART drugs (eg, abacavir) to be importantly associated with a greater MI risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that HIV infection, low CD4, high pVL, cumulative ART use in general including certain exposure to specific ART class/regimen are associated with increased risk of MI. The association with cumulative ART may be an index of the duration of HIV infection with its attendant inflammation, and not entirely the effect of cumulative exposure to ART per se.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42014012977.

Bias in the estimation of cumulative viremia in cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals

PURPOSE

The use of cumulative measures of exposure to raised HIV viral load (viremia copy-years) is increasingly common in HIV prevention and treatment epidemiology due to the association of long-term elevated viral load with more rapid progression to disease. We sought to estimate the magnitude and direction of bias in a cumulative measure of viremia caused by different frequency of sampling and duration of follow-up.

METHODS

We simulated longitudinal viral load measures and reanalyzed cohort study data sets with longitudinal viral load measurements under different sampling strategies to estimate cumulative viremia.

RESULTS

In both simulated and observed data, estimates of cumulative viremia by the trapezoidal rule show systematic upward bias when there are fewer sampling time points and/or increased duration between sampling time points, compared with estimation of full time series. Absolute values of cumulative viremia vary appreciably by the patterns of viral load over time, even after adjustment for total duration of follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Sampling bias due to differential frequency of sampling appears extensive and of meaningful magnitude in measures of cumulative viremia. Cumulative measures of viremia should be used only in studies with sufficient frequency of viral load measures and always as relative measures.

Screening tools for targeted comprehensive geriatric assessment in HIV-infected patients 50 years and older

Many people living with HIV (PLWH) are aging with geriatric syndromes, but few undergo comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) due to limited resources. Our study evaluates tools to identify aging PLWH who may forego CGA. We conducted a cross-sectional study on 357 PLWH ≥50 years old at the Red Cross, Thailand. Tools evaluated were the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index (VACSI) and G-8, which is predictive among older cancer patients. CGA consists of eight tests: history of fall within 12 months, timed-up-and-go test (TUG), activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental ADL (IADL), Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), Thai depression scale (TDS), mini nutritional assessment (MNA), and HIV symptom index (HSI). We considered ≥2 impaired domains on CGA to be abnormal results. Forty-nine percent (n = 175) had ≥2 impaired domains on CGA. Few participants had experienced a fall (11%) or abnormal TUG/ADL/IADL (<2%), and only MoCA/TDS/MNA/HSI were analyzed. A VACSI < 17 produces 85% sensitivity (Se) and 30% specificity (Sp) (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 63, 95%CI 58–69) and G-8 > 15.5 produces 90%Se and 33%Sp (AUC = 74, 95%CI 69–79) in identifying patients with <2 impaired domains. A G-8 > 13.5 produces 91%Se and 77%Sp (AUC = 89, 95%CI 86–92) in ruling out abnormal nutrition. Patients with VACSI < 17 and G-8 > 15.5 may forego CGA due to low likelihood of abnormal cognition, mood, nutrition, or symptom burden.

HIV and Cardiovascular Disease: Update on Clinical Events, Special Populations, and Novel Biomarkers

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The objective of this review is to provide an update on the link between HIV infection and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We will focus our review mainly on literature describing clinical CVD events and understudied topics of importance.

RECENT FINDINGS

Heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and stroke are CVD modalities deserving more attention in the context of HIV infection in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era. Incidence data on clinical CVD from HIV populations in low- and middle-income countries are limited. Multisubstance use is common in HIV, but understudied as a moderator or mediator of the association between HIV and CVD. CVD risk assessment in HIV remains challenging, but new research into novel biomarkers may provide further insights. There is also a need for inclusion of non-biologic factors in our attempts to understand, quantify, and predict CVD risk among PLWHA. Significant attention has been paid to generating and testing hypotheses to understand the mechanisms of myocardial infarction in HIV. Similar attention is deserving for heart failure, PAD, stroke, and cardiovascular disease risk in resource-limited settings and among substance users with HIV.

Albumin, white blood cell count, and body mass index improve discrimination of mortality in HIV-positive individuals

OBJECTIVE

Despite viral suppression and immune response on antiretroviral therapy, people with HIV infection experience excess mortality compared with uninfected individuals. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index incorporates clinical biomarkers of general health with age, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA to discriminate mortality risk in a variety of HIV-positive populations. We asked whether additional biomarkers further enhance discrimination.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using patients from VACS for development and from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) for validation, we obtained laboratory values from a randomly selected visit from 2000 to 2014, at least 1 year after antiretroviral therapy initiation. Patients were followed for 5-year, all-cause mortality through September 2016. We fitted Cox models with established predictors and added new predictors based on model fit and Harrell's c-statistic. We converted all variables to continuous functional forms and selected the best model (VACS Index 2.0) for validation in ART-CC patients. We compared discrimination using c-statistics and Kaplan-Meier plots.

RESULTS

Among 28 390 VACS patients and 12 109 ART-CC patients, 7293 and 722 died, respectively. Nadir CD4, CD8, and CD4 : CD8 ratio did not improve discrimination. Addition of albumin, white blood count, and BMI, improved c-statistics in VACS from 0.776 to 0.805 and in ART-CC from 0.800 to 0.831. Results were robust in all nine ART-CC cohorts, all lengths of follow-up and all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

VACS Index 2.0, adding albumin, white blood count, and BMI to version 1.0 and using continuous variables, provides improved discrimination and is highly transportable to external settings.

Cumulative Human Immunodeficiency Viremia, Antiretroviral Therapy, and Incident Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV are at risk of increased myocardial infarction (MI). Cumulative HIV viral load (VL) has been proposed as a better measure of HIV inflammation than other measures of VL, like baseline VL, but its associations with MI are not known.

METHODS

The multisite Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort includes clinical data and centrally adjudicated MI with distinction between atheroembolic MI (type 1) and MI related to supply-demand mismatch (type 2). We examined CNICS participants who were not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. Cumulative VL (copy-days of virus) from 6 months after enrollment was estimated with a time-weighted sum using the trapezoidal rule. We modeled associations of cumulative and baseline VL with MI by type using marginal structural Cox models. We contrasted the 75% percentile of the VL distribution with the 25% percentile.

RESULTS

Among 11,324 participants, 218 MIs occurred between 1996 and 2016. Higher cumulative VL was associated with risk of all MI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26, 2.36), type 1 MI (HR = 1.23; 95% CI = 0.78, 1.96), and type 2 MI (HR = 2.52; 95% CI = 1.74, 3.66). While off ART, cumulative VL had a stronger association with type 1 MI (HR = 2.13; 95% CI = 1.15, 3.94) than type 2 MI (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 0.70, 2.25). Baseline VL was associated with all MI (HR = 1.60; 95% CI = 1.28, 2.01), type 1 MI (HR = 1.73; 95% CI = 1.26, 2.38), and type 2 MI (HR = 1.51; 95% CI = 1.10, 2.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cumulative and baseline VL is associated with all MI, with a particularly strong association between cumulative VL and type 2 MI.

Viremia copy-years and mortality among combination antiretroviral therapy-initiating HIV-positive individuals: how much viral load history is enough?

OBJECTIVE

Ongoing HIV replication while receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) may reduce survival. Viremia copy-years (VCY) has shown improved mortality risk prediction over single time-point viral load measures. However, the timing of a patient's viral load history most associated with later mortality has not been studied. Here we determined the optimal duration and temporality of viral load history for predicting mortality.

DESIGN

Survival analysis among HIV-positive men who initiated cART in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (1995-2015).

METHODS

VCY measures were derived from area-under-the-viral load-curve. The overall VCY based upon the complete post-cART viral load history was compared with 20 VCYs derived from viral loads assessed during different shorter time periods (the most recent 1-10 years and initial 1-10 years following cART initiation) for associations with mortality.

RESULTS

Each 10-fold increase in VCYs based on the most recent 3-8 years was significantly associated with 23-26% decrease in survival times, a magnitude of effect greater than that of the most recent viral load (16%). These associations were independent of CD4 cell count and single time-point viral loads. In addition, the degree of pre-cART immunodeficiency did not affect the mortality prognostic value of VCY based on viral loads in the most recent 3 years. Conversely, the overall VCY and VCYs based on viral loads immediately following cART initiation were not independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Among cART-treated men, VCY based upon viral loads in the recent 3 years (six viral loads) has a mortality prognostic value greater than that of the overall VCY and single time-point viral loads, making the former a more feasible measure for use.

Bilirubin Is Inversely Associated With Cardiovascular Disease Among HIV-Positive and HIV-Negative Individuals in VACS (Veterans Aging Cohort Study)

Background

Bilirubin may protect against cardiovascular disease (CVD) by reducing oxidative stress. Whether elevated bilirubin reduces the risk of CVD events among HIV⁺ individuals and if this differs from uninfected individuals remain unclear. We assessed whether bilirubin independently predicted the risk of CVD events among HIV⁺ and uninfected participants in VACS (Veterans Aging Cohort Study).

Methods and Results

We conducted a prospective cohort study using VACS participants free of baseline CVD. Total bilirubin was categorized by quartiles. CVD as well as acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and ischemic stroke events were assessed. Cox regression was used to evaluate hazard ratios of outcomes associated with quartiles of total bilirubin in HIV⁺ and uninfected people after adjusting for multiple risk factors. There were 96 381 participants (30 427 HIV⁺); mean age was 48 years, 48% were black, and 97% were men. There were 6603 total incident CVD events over a mean of 5.7 years. In adjusted models, increasing quartiles of baseline total bilirubin were associated with decreased hazards of all outcomes (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.80–0.91). Among HIV⁺ participants, results persisted for heart failure, ischemic stroke, and total CVD, but nonsignificant associations were observed for acute myocardial infarction.

Conclusions

VACS participants (regardless of HIV status) with elevated bilirubin levels had a lower risk of incident total CVD, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and ischemic stroke events after adjusting for known risk factors. Future studies should investigate how this apparently protective effect of elevated bilirubin could be harnessed to reduce CVD risk or improve risk estimation among HIV⁺ individuals.

Validation of the ICD-9 Diagnostic Code for Palliative Care in Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure Within the Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND

Patients with heart failure (HF) are at increased risk of unmet palliative care needs. The International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD-9) code, V66.7, can identify palliative care services. However, code validity for specialist palliative care in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has not been determined.

OBJECTIVE

To validate the ICD-9 code for specialist palliative care and determine common reasons for specialist palliative care consultation among VHA patients hospitalized with HF.

DESIGN

Electronic health record review of data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

The sample included 100 patients hospitalized with HF from 2003 to 2012.

MEASUREMENTS

Data from 50 patients with V66.7 were matched by age, race, site of care, hospital length of stay, intensive care unit admission, and fiscal year of study discharge to 50 patients with HF without V66.7 who had died within a year of hospitalization. We calculated positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

All patients included in the sample were male, 66% black ethnicity, and mean age = 65 years (standard deviations [SD] ± 10.5 for cases; SD ± 9.8 for matches). Specialist palliative care was documented for 49 of 50 patients with V66.7 (PPV = 98%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 88-99) and 9 of 50 patients without the code (NPV = 82%, 95% CI: 68-91). Sensitivity was 84% (95% CI: 72-92), and specificity was 98% (95% CI: 86-99). Establishing goals of care was the most frequent reason for palliative care consultation (43% of the sample).

CONCLUSION

The ICD-9 code V66.7 identifies specialist palliative care for hospitalized patients with HF in the VHA. Replication of findings in other data sources and populations is needed.

HIV and its relationship to insulin resistance and lipid abnormalities

Antiretroviral therapy has revolutionized the care of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by reducing morbidity and mortality from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-related conditions. Despite longer life expectancy, however, HIV-infected individuals continue to have a higher risk of death compared with the general population. This has been attributed to the increasing incidence of noncommunicable diseases, in particular, atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. This is driven, in part, by the emergence of metabolic disorders, particularly dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and lipodystrophy, in those on antiretroviral therapy. The pathogenesis of these metabolic derangements is complex and multifactorial, and could be a consequence of an interplay between traditional age-related risk factors, HIV infection, antiretroviral therapy effects, and the inflammatory state and immune activation in this population. Understanding the contributions of each of these factors could not just impact the current management of these individuals and help mitigate the risk for premature cardiovascular disease, but also shape the future direction of research in HIV.