Cost-effectiveness of population screening for atrial fibrillation: the STROKESTOP study

Clinical outcomes of atrial fibrillation screening: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Several randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have investigated the benefits of atrial fibrillation (AF) screening. However, since none have shown a significant reduction in stroke rates, the impact of screening on clinical outcomes remains uncertain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs reporting clinical outcomes of systematic AF screening in participants without known AF. Pooled risk ratios (RRs) were computed for all-cause stroke or systemic embolism, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality, comparing screening with no screening.

RESULTS

Seven RCTs encompassing 76 458 participants were identified. One trial utilized implantable loop recorders for rhythm monitoring, while the others employed non-invasive screening methods. Pooled results indicated that AF screening was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause stroke or systemic embolism (RR 0.932, 95% CI 0.873-0.996, I2 = 0%, p = 0.037), but had no effect on major bleeding (RR 0.996, 95% CI 0.935-1.060, I2 = 0%, p = 0.876) or all-cause mortality (RR 0.987, 95% CI 0.945-1.031, I2 = 0%, p = 0.550). We estimated a number needed to screen of 148 to prevent one stroke or systemic embolism over a 10-year period in a population of 75-year-olds. When only non-invasive screening methods were considered, the reduction in strokes was not statistically significant (RR 0.942, 95% CI 0.880-1.008, I2 = 0%, p = 0.083).

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic AF screening is associated with a modest yet statistically significant 7% relative reduction in stroke and systemic embolism, with no observed impact on major bleeding or all-cause mortality.

Characteristics of Patients With Asymptomatic Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Stroke-Insights From the GLORIA-AF Registry (Phase 2)

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic nonvalvular atrial fibrillation is often suspected in patients with cryptogenic stroke which constitute 20%-30% of ischemic strokes. Detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) and treatment with anticoagulation can reduce the risk of stroke. We sought to investigate the prevalence of asymptomatic atrial fibrillation (aAF) in patients with a history of stroke or an acute stroke on admission.

METHODS

From November 2011 until December 2014, 15,308 patients with a first episode of AF were enrolled in phase 2 of the international, prospective, multicenter global registry on long-term oral anticoagulation treatment in patients with AF (GLORIA-AF) Registry. For the present analysis, we focused on patients with aAF regarding the prevalence of stroke.

RESULTS

One third of patients (n = 4892, 32%) had aAF. Of these, 611 (12.5%) had a history of stroke or an acute stroke on admission. In contrast, 519 of 10,416 (5.0%) patients with symptomatic AF (sAF) had a history of stroke or an acute stroke on admission. Higher age, male gender, permanent AF, stroke, and the combination of stroke, TIA or systemic embolism were associated with a higher prevalence of aAF on admission. In a multivariable analysis, patients with aAF had a 2.3-fold (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.02-2.54) risk for stroke compared to patients with sAF. Other independent risk factors for stroke were a history of prior bleeding (odds ratio 1.62, 95% CI, 1.34-1.92), chronic kidney disease (1.38, 1.21-1.56), and diabetes mellitus (1.24, 1.10-1.41).

CONCLUSION

aAF is reported in about one third of patients with newly diagnosed AF and is associated with a 2.3-fold risk for stroke compared to sAF. Therefore, screening for aAF in high-risk patients might be appropriate to prevent further embolic cerebrovascular events.

Screening and diagnosis of atrial fibrillation using wearable devices

In recent years, the development and use of various devices for the screening of atrial fibrillation (AF) have significantly increased. Such devices include 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmography systems, and single-lead ECG and ECG patches. This review outlines several studies that have focused on the feasibility and efficacy of such devices for AF screening, and summarizes the risks and benefits involved in the initiation of anticoagulant therapy after early detection of AF. We also describe several ongoing trials on unresolved issues associated with AF screening. Overall, this review provides a comprehensive summary of the current state of AF screening and its implications for patient care.

Atrial Fibrillation Screening in the Elderly: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Public Health Policy

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening identifies undiagnosed patients who can benefit from anticoagulant therapy, thereby reducing the risk of ischemic stroke. However, the long-term outcomes and costs related to population screening for this purpose in the Asian elderly remain unknown.

Objectives

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population screening for AF in the elderly in Taiwan and explore the optimal screening strategy from the health care sector's perspective.

Methods

Using a Markov decision-analytic model, we simulated lifetime outcomes and costs of AF screening in a cohort of 10,000 individuals aged 75. Comparative analyses with a nonscreening approach assessed prevented ischemic strokes, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address model uncertainty, while scenario analyses were performed to determine the optimal age and frequency of screening.

Results

One-time population screening for AF among 75-year-olds prevented 45 ischemic strokes and gained 47.42 QALYs, with an additional cost of $592,450 (ICER: $12,493 per QALY gained). The cost-effectiveness of screening remained robust in sensitivity analyses, with anticoagulant effectiveness in ischemic stroke prevention being the most influential factor. Similar ICERs were observed for individuals aged 65 to 80 years. Implementing annual screening for individuals aged 65 to 80 years yielded an ICER of approximately $18,000 per QALY gained.

Conclusions

Both one-time and annual population screening for AF in individuals aged 65 to 80 years appear to be cost-effective. Further research is needed to assess budgetary and feasibility aspects to establish an optimal screening program.

Spotlight on the 2024 ESC/EACTS management of atrial fibrillation guidelines: 10 novel key aspects

Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains the most common cardiac arrhythmia worldwide and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (EACTS) have recently released the 2024 guidelines for the management of AF. This review highlights 10 novel aspects of the ESC/EACTS 2024 Guidelines. The AF-CARE framework is introduced, a structural approach that aims to improve patient care and outcomes, comprising of four pillars: [C] Comorbidity and risk factor management, [A] Avoid stroke and thromboembolism, [R] Reduce symptoms by rate and rhythm control, and [E] Evaluation and dynamic reassessment. Additionally, graphical patient pathways are provided to enhance clinical application. A significant shift is the new emphasis on comorbidity and risk factor control to reduce AF recurrence and progression. Individualized assessment of risk is suggested to guide the initiation of oral anticoagulation to prevent thromboembolism. New guidance is provided for anticoagulation in patients with trigger-induced and device-detected sub-clinical AF, ischaemic stroke despite anticoagulation, and the indications for percutaneous/surgical left atrial appendage exclusion. AF ablation is a first-line rhythm control option for suitable patients with paroxysmal AF, and in specific patients, rhythm control can improve prognosis. The AF duration threshold for early cardioversion was reduced from 48 to 24 h, and a wait-and-see approach for spontaneous conversion is advised to promote patient safety. Lastly, strong emphasis is given to optimize the implementation of AF guidelines in daily practice using a patient-centred, multidisciplinary and shared-care approach, with the simultaneous launch of a patient version of the guideline.

State of the art of mobile health technologies use in clinical arrhythmia care

The rapid growth in consumer-facing mobile and sensor technologies has created tremendous opportunities for patient-driven personalized health management. The diagnosis and management of cardiac arrhythmias are particularly well suited to benefit from these easily accessible consumer health technologies. In particular, smartphone-based and wrist-worn wearable electrocardiogram (ECG) and photoplethysmography (PPG) technology can facilitate relatively inexpensive, long-term rhythm monitoring. Here we review the practical utility of the currently available and emerging mobile health technologies relevant to cardiac arrhythmia care. We discuss the applications of these tools, which vary with respect to diagnostic performance, target populations, and indications. We also highlight that requirements for successful integration into clinical practice require adaptations to regulatory approval, data management, electronic medical record integration, quality oversight, and efforts to minimize the additional burden to health care professionals.

The NORwegian atrial fibrillation self-SCREENing (NORSCREEN) trial: rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, and many cases of AF may be undiagnosed. Whether screening for AF and subsequent treatment if AF is detected can improve long-term outcome remains an unsettled question. The primary aim of the NORwegian atrial fibrillation self-SCREENing (NORSCREEN) trial is to assess whether self-screening for AF with continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) for 3-7 days in individuals aged 65 years or older with at least one additional risk factor for stroke, and initiation of guideline-recommended therapy in patients with detected AF, will reduce the occurrence of stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study is a nationwide open, siteless, randomized, controlled trial. Individuals ≥65 years of age are randomly identified from the National Population Register of Norway and are invited to take a digital inclusion/exclusion test. Individuals passing the inclusion/exclusion test are randomized to either the intervention group or the control group. A total of 35 000 participants will be enrolled. In the intervention group, self-screening is performed continuously over 3-7 days at home with a patch ECG device (ECG247) at inclusion and after 12-18 months. If AF is detected, guideline-recommended therapy will be initiated. Patients will be followed up for 5 years through national health registries. The primary outcome is time to a first stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke). The first participant in the NORSCREEN trial was enrolled on 1 September 2023.

CONCLUSION

The results from the NORSCREEN trial will provide new insights regarding the efficacy of digital siteless self-screening for AF with respect to stroke prevention in individuals at an increased risk of stroke.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical trials: NCT05914883.

Increasing the reach: optimizing screening for atrial fibrillation-the STROKESTOP III study

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrythmia and is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke. Many cases of AF remain undiagnosed due to its paroxysmal, intermittent, and often asymptomatic nature. Early detection of AF through screening and initiation of treatment with oral anticoagulants can prevent stroke, increase life expectancy, and decrease the cost of healthcare for the society. However, participation has been low in previous AF screening studies employing population screening. The aim of this study is to determine whether opportunistic screening is a superior method to increase participation in comparison to population screening. We hypothesize that opportunistic screening will significantly increase participation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In our study, STROKESTOP III, a randomized prospective cohort study, we compare two different methods of AF screening in high-risk individuals: population screening vs. opportunistic screening. Sixteen different primary clinics in Värmland, Sweden, serving 75-76-year-old individuals (n = 2954), will be randomized to either population screening or opportunistic screening. The individuals will be instructed to record electrocardiogram (ECG) for 30 s, 3 times daily for 2 weeks, using a handheld one-lead ECG device. Patients with detected AF will be referred to their primary healthcare physician and offered treatment. The main objective of the study is to determine the rate of participation in opportunistic screening in comparison to population screening.

CONCLUSIONS

The STROKESTOP III study will provide valuable information on which screening method to use for improved participation in atrial fibrillation screening.

The budget impact of implementing atrial fibrillation-screening in European countries

A budget impact analysis estimates the short-term difference between the cost of the current treatment strategy and a new treatment strategy, in this case to implement population screening for atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study is to estimate the financial impact of implementing population-based AF-screening of 75-year-olds compared with the current setting of no screening from a healthcare payer perspective in eight European countries. The net budget impact of AF-screening was estimated in country-specific settings for Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Serbia, Spain, and Sweden. Country-specific parameters were used to allow for variations in healthcare systems and to reflect the healthcare sector in the country of interest. Similar results can be seen in all countries AF-screening incurs savings of stroke-related costs since AF treatment reduces the number of strokes. However, the increased number of detected AF and higher drug acquisition will increase the drug costs as well as the costs of physician- and control visits. The net budget impact per invited varied from €10 in Ireland to €122 in the Netherlands. The results showed the increased costs of implementing AF-screening were mainly driven by increased drug costs and screening costs. In conclusion, across Europe, though the initial cost of screening and more frequent use of oral anti-coagulants will increase the healthcare payers' costs, introducing population screening for AF will result in savings of stroke-related costs.

Chinese guidelines for the diagnosis and management of atrial fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of the guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice timely and fully, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2‑VASc‑60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of the Asian AF population. The guidelines also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

Virtual lab coats: The effects of verified source information on social media post credibility

Social media platform's lack of control over its content made way to the fundamental problem of misinformation. As users struggle with determining the truth, social media platforms should strive to empower users to make more accurate credibility judgements. A good starting point is a more accurate perception of the credibility of the message's source. Two pre-registered online experiments (N = 525;N = 590) were conducted to investigate how verified source information affects perceptions of Tweets (study 1) and generic social media posts (study 2). In both studies, participants reviewed posts by an unknown author and rated source and message credibility, as well as likelihood of sharing. Posts varied by the information provided about the account holder: (1) none, (2) the popular method of verified source identity, or (3) verified credential of the account holder (e.g., employer, role), a novel approach. The credential was either relevant to the content of the post or not. Study 1 presented the credential as a badge, whereas study 2 included the credential as both a badge and a signature. During an initial intuitive response, the effects of these cues were generally unpredictable. Yet, after explanation how to interpret the different source cues, two prevalent reasoning errors surfaced. First, participants conflated source authenticity and message credibility. Second, messages from sources with a verified credential were perceived as more credible, regardless of whether this credential was context relevant (i.e., virtual lab coat effect). These reasoning errors are particularly concerning in the context of misinformation. In sum, credential verification as tested in this paper seems ineffective in empowering users to make more accurate credibility judgements. Yet, future research could investigate alternative implementations of this promising technology.

Cost-effectiveness of left atrial appendage occlusion during cardiac surgery in France: An economic evaluation based on the LAAOS III study

OBJECTIVES

Left atrial appendage occlusion during cardiac surgery is a therapeutic option for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation. The effectiveness and safety of left atrial appendage occlusion have been evaluated in several studies, including the LAAOS-III trial. While these studies have demonstrated efficacy and safety, the long-term economic impact of this surgical technique has not yet been assessed. Here, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of left atrial appendage occlusion during cardiac surgery over a long-term time horizon.

METHODS

Our study was based on a model representing an hypothetical cohort with the same characteristics as LAAOS-III trial patients. We modelled the incidence of ischemic strokes and systemic embolisms in each intervention arm: "occlusion" and "no-occlusion," using a one-month cycle length with a 20-year time horizon. Regarding occlusion devices, sutures, staples, or an approved surgical occlusion device (AtriClip™-AtriCure, Ohio, USA) could be used.

RESULTS

Our model generated an average cost savings of 607 euros per patient and an incremental gain of 0.062 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of €-9,775/QALY. The scenario analysis in which occlusion was systematically performed using the AtriClip™ device generated an ICUR of €3,952/QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

In the base-case analysis, the strategy proved to be more effective and less costly, confirming left atrial appendage occlusion during cardiac surgery as an economically dominant strategy. The scenario analysis also appeared cost-effective, although it did not result in cost savings. This study provides a new perspective on the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of these techniques.

Supermarket/hypermarket opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation (SHOPS-AF) using sensors embedded in the handles of supermarket trolleys: A feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, cognitive decline, and healthcare costs but is often asymptomatic and undiagnosed. There is currently no national screening program for AF. The advent of validated hand-held devices allows AF to be detected in non-healthcare settings, enabling screening to be undertaken within the community.

METHOD AND RESULTS

In this novel observational study, we embedded a MyDiagnostick single lead ECG sensor into the handles of shopping trolleys in four supermarkets in the Northwest of England: 2155 participants were recruited. Of these, 231 participants either activated the sensor or had an irregular pulse, suggesting AF. Some participants agreed to use the sensor but refused to provide their contact details, or consent to pulse assessment. In addition, some data were missing, resulting in 203 participants being included in the final analyses. Fifty-nine participants (mean age 73.6 years, 43% female) were confirmed or suspected of having AF; 20 were known to have AF and 39 were previously undiagnosed. There was no evidence of AF in 115 participants and the remaining 46 recordings were non-diagnostic, mainly due to artefact. Men and older participants were significantly more likely to have newly diagnosed AF. Due to the number of non-diagnostic ECGs (n = 46), we completed three levels of analyses, excluding all non-diagnostic ECGs, assuming all non-diagnostic ECGs were masking AF, and assuming all non-diagnostic ECGs were not AF. Based on the results of the three analyses, the sensor's sensitivity (95% CI) ranged from 0.70 to 0.93; specificity from 0.15 to 0.97; positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) ranged from 0.24 to 0.56 and 0.55 to 1.00, respectively. These values should be interpreted with caution, as the ideal reference standard on 1934 participants was imperfect.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrates that the public will engage with AF screening undertaken as part of their daily routines using hand-held devices. Sensors can play a key role in identifying asymptomatic patients in this way, but the technology must be further developed to reduce the quantity of non-diagnostic ECGs.

Adherence to a handheld device-based atrial fibrillation screening protocol is associated with clinical outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate adherence and adherence consistency to the handheld ECG device-based screening protocol and their association with adverse cerebral and cardiovascular outcomes in two systematic atrial fibrillation (AF) screening programmes.

METHODS

In 2012 (Systematic ECG Screening for Atrial Fibrillation Among 75-Year Old Subjects in the Region of Stockholm and Halland, Sweden (STROKESTOP) study) and 2016 (Stepwise mass screening for atrial fibrillation using N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (STROKESTOP II) study), half of all 75- and 76-year-old inhabitants of up to two Swedish regions were invited to participate in a systematic AF screening programme. Participants were instructed to perform 30-second measurements twice daily in STROKESTOP and four times daily in STROKESTOP II for 2 weeks. Adherence was defined as the number of measurements performed divided by the number of measurements asked, whereas adherence consistency was defined as the number of days with complete registrations.

RESULTS

In total, 6436 participants (55.7% female) from STROKESTOP and 3712 (59.8% female) from STROKESTOP II were included. Median adherence and adherence consistency were 100 (92-100)% and 12 (11-13) days in STROKESTOP and 90 (75-98)% and 8 (3-11) days in STROKESTOP II. Female sex and lower education were factors associated with both optimal adherence and adherence consistency in both studies. In STROKESTOP, low adherence and adherence consistency were associated with higher risk of adverse cerebral and cardiovascular outcomes (HR for composite primary endpoint 1.30 (1.11 to 1.51), p=0.001), including stroke (HR 1.68 (1.22 to 2.32), p=0.001) and dementia (1.67 (1.27 to 2.19), p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to twice daily handheld ECG measurements in STROKESTOP was higher than to four times daily measurements in STROKESTOP II. Female sex and lower educational attainment were associated with ≥100% adherence and adherence consistency. Low adherence and adherence consistency were associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia, significantly impacting patients' quality of life and increasing the risk of death, stroke, heart failure, and dementia. Over the past two decades, there have been significant breakthroughs in AF risk prediction and screening, stroke prevention, rhythm control, catheter ablation, and integrated management. During this period, the scale, quality, and experience of AF management in China have greatly improved, providing a solid foundation for the development of guidelines for the diagnosis and management of AF. To further promote standardized AF management, and apply new technologies and concepts to clinical practice in a timely and comprehensive manner, the Chinese Society of Cardiology of the Chinese Medical Association and the Heart Rhythm Committee of the Chinese Society of Biomedical Engineering have jointly developed the Chinese Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Atrial Fibrillation. The guidelines have comprehensively elaborated on various aspects of AF management and proposed the CHA2DS2-VASc-60 stroke risk score based on the characteristics of AF in the Asian population. The guidelines have also reevaluated the clinical application of AF screening, emphasized the significance of early rhythm control, and highlighted the central role of catheter ablation in rhythm control.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Promises and Perils of Consumer Mobile Technologies in Cardiovascular Care: JACC Scientific Statement

Direct-to-consumer (D2C) wearables are becoming increasingly popular in cardiovascular health management because of their affordability and capability to capture diverse health data. Wearables may enable continuous health care provider-patient partnerships and reduce the volume of episodic clinic-based care (thereby reducing health care costs). However, challenges arise from the unregulated use of these devices, including questionable data reliability, potential misinterpretation of information, unintended psychological impacts, and an influx of clinically nonactionable data that may overburden the health care system. Further, these technologies could exacerbate, rather than mitigate, health disparities. Experience with wearables in atrial fibrillation underscores these challenges. The prevalent use of D2C wearables necessitates a collaborative approach among stakeholders to ensure effective integration into cardiovascular care. Wearables are heralding innovative disease screening, diagnosis, and management paradigms, expanding therapeutic avenues, and anchoring personalized medicine.

Sex-specific lifetime risk of cardiovascular events: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk prospective population cohort study

AIMS

Better understanding of sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential in tailoring appropriate preventative strategies. Using a large population-based study with follow-up >25 years, we aimed to determine sex-specific lifetime risks of incident CVD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality amongst populations with and without prevalent CVD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk and followed up for a median of 26.2 years. Sex-specific lifetime risks were ascertained accounting for the competing risk of death. Models were adjusted for ethnicity and time-updated covariates: material deprivation, CV risk factors, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication. A total of 23 859 participants [54.5% women; mean age (standard deviation) 59.2 (9.3) years at baseline] were included. Adjusted lifetime risks of incident CVD were higher in men than in women (69.1 vs. 57.7% at age 75): cause-specific hazard ratio (cHR) (99% confidence interval)-1.49 (1.41-1.57), while the risks of CV mortality at age 75 were 4.4% (men) and 3.1% (women): cHR-1.42 (1.31-1.54). Myocardial infarction was the predominant first presentation in men until the eighth decade. In women, the first CVD manifestations after their sixth decade were predominantly atrial fibrillation and stroke. The male-associated excess relative risks of incident CVD and CV mortality were halved in people with prevalent CVD.

CONCLUSION

We characterized the sex-specific lifetime CV risks in a large cohort. Men had substantially higher risk of incident CVD and CV mortality than women, which was attenuated amongst people with prevalent CVD. Our findings provide an evidence base for sex-specific CV prevention.

Sinus node dysfunction and stroke risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The role of cardiac arrhythmia in ischaemic stroke is widely studied, but the size of the stroke risk in patients with sinus node dysfunction (SND) with and without atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the risk of stroke and its associated factors in patients with SND with and without AF.

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Database were searched until December 2022.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Studies that investigate stroke in patients with SND diagnosed with or without AF/atrial flutter.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent authors screened studies for inclusion and extracted data. Literature quality assessment was performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Cochrane Collaboration Tool. The overall risk of stroke was estimated using the random-effects model. The generic inverse variance method was used to calculate the pooled estimates of stroke-associated factors. We performed a sensitivity analysis using a fixed-effects model.

RESULTS

Of the 929 records retrieved, 6 papers (106 163 patients) met the inclusion criteria. The average yearly stroke incidence in patients with SND was 1.542% (95% CI: 1.334% to 1.749%). The stroke incidence was similar between the isolated SND (1.587%; 95% CI: 1.510% to 1.664%) and non-isolated (SND+AF) (1.660%; 95% CI: 0.705% to 2.615%) groups. AF (HR, 95% CI: 1.53 (1.01 to 2.33)), stroke/transient ischaemia attack/other thrombotic events (HR, 95% CI: 2.54 (1.14 to 5.69)), hypertension (HR, 95% CI: 1.51 (1.11 to 2.07)) and heart failure (HR, 95% CI: 1.41 (1.01 to 1.97)) were associated with stroke in the SND population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that patients with SND carry a similar risk of stroke to those with combined SND and AF. Future studies are needed to investigate whether interventions targeting stroke prevention, such as anticoagulation therapy, can help to prevent stroke in patients with SND.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023408436.

Cost-Effectiveness of AF Screening With 2-Week Patch Monitors: The mSToPS Study

BACKGROUND

The mSToPS study (mHealth Screening to Prevent Strokes) reported screening older Americans at risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke using 2-week patch monitors was associated with increased rates of AF diagnosis and anticoagulant prescription within 1 year and improved clinical outcomes at 3 years relative to matched controls. Cost-effectiveness of this AF screening approach has not been explored.

METHODS

We conducted a US-based health economic analysis of AF screening using patient-level data from mSToPS. Clinical outcomes, resource use, and costs were obtained through 3 years using claims data. Individual costs, survival, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were projected over a lifetime horizon using regression modeling, US life tables, and external data where needed. Adjustment between groups was performed using propensity score bin bootstrapping.

RESULTS

Screening participants (mean age, 74 years, 41% female, median CHA2DS2-VASC score 3) wore on average 1.7 two-week monitors at a mean cost of $614/person. Over 3 years, outpatient visits were more frequent for monitored than unmonitored individuals (difference 190 per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 82-298]), but emergency department visits (-8.3 [95% CI, -12.6 to -4.1]) and hospitalizations (-15.2 [CI, -22 to -8.6]) were less frequent. Total adjusted 3-year costs were slightly higher (mean difference, $1551 [95% CI, -$1047 to $4038]) in the monitoring group. In patient-level projections, the monitoring group had slightly greater quality-adjusted survival (8.81 versus 8.71 QALYs, difference, 0.09 [95% CI, -0.05 to 0.24]) and slightly higher lifetime costs, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $36 100/QALY gained. With bootstrap resampling, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for monitoring was <$50 000/QALY in 64% of study replicates, and <$150 000/QALY in 91%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using lifetime projections derived from the mSToPS study, we found that AF screening using 2-week patch monitors in older Americans was associated with high economic value. Confirmation of these uncertain findings in a randomized trial is warranted.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02506244.

Future Innovations in Novel Detection for Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF): pilot study of an electronic health record machine learning algorithm-guided intervention to identify undiagnosed atrial fibrillation

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a fivefold increased risk of stroke. Oral anticoagulation reduces the risk of stroke, but AF is elusive. A machine learning algorithm (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)) developed to predict incident AF within 6 months using data in primary care electronic health records (EHRs) could be used to guide AF screening. The objectives of the FIND-AF pilot study are to determine yields of AF during ECG monitoring across AF risk estimates and establish rates of recruitment and protocol adherence in a remote AF screening pathway.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The FIND-AF Pilot is an interventional, non-randomised, single-arm, open-label study that will recruit 1955 participants aged 30 years or older, without a history of AF and eligible for oral anticoagulation, identified as higher risk and lower risk by the FIND-AF risk score from their primary care EHRs, to a period of remote ECG monitoring with a Zenicor-ECG device. The primary outcome is AF diagnosis during ECG monitoring, and secondary outcomes include recruitment rates, withdrawal rates, adherence to ECG monitoring and prescription of oral anticoagulation to participants diagnosed with AF during ECG monitoring.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has ethical approval (the North West-Greater Manchester South Research Ethics Committee reference 23/NW/0180). Findings will be announced at relevant conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals in line with the Funder's open access policy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05898165.

The digital journey: 25 years of digital development in electrophysiology from an Europace perspective

AIMS

Over the past 25 years there has been a substantial development in the field of digital electrophysiology (EP) and in parallel a substantial increase in publications on digital cardiology.In this celebratory paper, we provide an overview of the digital field by highlighting publications from the field focusing on the EP Europace journal.

RESULTS

In this journey across the past quarter of a century we follow the development of digital tools commonly used in the clinic spanning from the initiation of digital clinics through the early days of telemonitoring, to wearables, mobile applications, and the use of fully virtual clinics. We then provide a chronicle of the field of artificial intelligence, a regulatory perspective, and at the end of our journey provide a future outlook for digital EP.

CONCLUSION

Over the past 25 years Europace has published a substantial number of papers on digital EP, with a marked expansion in digital publications in recent years.

A Simplified Risk Score to Predict In-Hospital Newly-Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients

Purpose

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a significant cause of stroke, and newly diagnosed AF (NDAF) is typically detected in the early period of stroke onset. We aimed to identify the factors associated with in-hospital NDAF in acute ischemic stroke patients and developed a simplified clinical prediction model.

Methods

Patients with cryptogenic stroke aged 18 years or older who were admitted between January 2017 and December 2021 were recruited. NDAF was determined by inpatient cardiac telemetry. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were used to evaluate the factors associated with in-hospital NDAF. The predictive model was developed using regression coefficients.

Results

The study enrolled 244 eligible participants, of which 52 NDAFs were documented (21.31%), and the median time to detection was two days (1-3.5). After multivariable regression analysis, parameters significantly associated with in-hospital NDAF were elderly (>75 years) (adjusted Odds ratio, 2.99; 95% confident interval, 1.51-5.91; P = 0.002), female sex (2.08; 1.04-4.14; P = 0.04), higher admission national institute of health stroke scale (1.04; 1.00-1.09; P = 0.05), and presence of hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign (2.33; 1.13-4.79; P = 0.02). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve resulted in 0.74 (95% CI 0.65-0.80), and the cut-point of 2 showed 87% sensitivity and 42% specificity.

Conclusion

The validated and simplified risk scores for predicting in-hospital NDAF primarily rely on simplified parameters and high sensitivity. It might be used as a screening tool for in-hospital NDAF in stroke patients who initially presumed cryptogenic stroke.

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the United Kingdom in older patients using digital approaches

AIM

Screening for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is key in identifying patients with undiagnosed disease who may be eligible for anticoagulation therapy. Understanding the economic value of screening is necessary to assess optimal strategies for payers and healthcare systems. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of opportunistic screening with handheld digital devices and pulse palpation, as well as targeted screening predictive algorithms for UK patients ≥75 years of age.

METHODS

A previously developed Markov cohort model was adapted to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes of opportunistic screening including pulse palpation, Zenicor (extended 14 days), KardiaMobile (extended), and two algorithms compared to no screening. Key model inputs including epidemiology estimates, screening effectiveness, and risks for medical events were derived from the STROKESTOP, ARISTOTLE studies, and published literature, and cost inputs were obtained from a UK national cost database. Health and cost outcomes, annually discounted at 3.5%, were reported for a cohort of 10,000 patients vs. no screening over a time horizon equivalent to a patient's lifetime, Analyses were performed from a UK National Health Services and personal social services perspective.

RESULTS

Zenicor, pulse palpation, and KardiaMobile were dominant (providing better health outcomes at lower costs) vs. no screening; both algorithms were cost-effective vs. no screening, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of £1,040 and £1,166. Zenicor, pulse palpation, and KardiaMobile remained dominant options vs. no screening in all scenarios explored. Deterministic sensitivity analyses indicated long-term stroke care costs, prevalence of undiagnosed NVAF in patients 75-79 years of age, and clinical efficacy of anticoagulant on stroke prevention were the main drivers of the cost-effectiveness results.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening for NVAF at ≥75 years of age could result in fewer NVAF-related strokes. NVAF screening is cost-effective and may be cost-saving depending on the program chosen.