Association of left atrial enlargement with heart failure events in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little is known regarding the risk stratification for incident HF in AF patients, especially with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

Methods and results

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients. From the registry, 3002 non-valvular AF patients with preserved LVEF and with the data of antero-posterior left atrial diameter (LAD) at enrolment were investigated. Patients were stratified by LAD (<40, 40-44, 45-49, and ≥50 mm) with backgrounds and HF hospitalization incidences compared between groups. Of 3002 patients [mean age, 73.5 ± 10.7 years; women, 1226 (41%); paroxysmal AF, 1579 (53%); and mean CHA2DS2-VASc score, 3.3 ± 1.7], the mean LAD was 43 ± 8 mm. Patients with larger LAD were older and less often paroxysmal AF, with a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (all P < 0.001). Heart failure hospitalization occurred in 412 patients during the median follow-up period of 6.0 years. Larger LAD was independently associated with a higher HF hospitalization risk [LAD ≥ 50 mm: hazard ratio (HR), 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.75-3.18; LAD 45-49 mm: HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.37-2.46; and LAD 40-44 mm: HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01-1.78, compared with LAD < 40 mm) after adjustment by age, sex, AF type, and CHA2DS2-VASc score. These results were also consistent across major subgroups, showing no significant interaction.

Conclusion

Left atrial diameter is significantly associated with the risk of incident HF in AF patients with preserved LVEF, suggesting the utility of LAD regarding HF risk stratification for these patients.

Incidence and prediction of hospitalization for heart failure in patients with atrial fibrillation: the REFLEJA scale

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) is common in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and is associated with increased mortality. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of HHF, identify the clinical predictors of its occurrence, and develop a new risk scale.

METHODS

The incidence of HHF was estimated using data from the prospective single-center REFLEJA registry of outpatients with AF (October 2017-October 2018). A multivariate Cox regression model was calculated to detect HHF predictors, and a nomogram was created for individual risk assessment.

RESULTS

Of the 1499 patients included (mean age 73.8±11.1 years, 48.1% women), 127 had HHF (incidence rate of 8.51 per 100 persons/y) and 319 died (rate of death from any cause of 21.1 per 100 persons/y) after a 3-year follow-up. The independent predictors of HHF were age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, pulmonary hypertension, previous pacemaker implantation, baseline use of diuretics, and moderate-severe aortic regurgitation. The c-statistic for predicting the event was 0.762 (95%CI after boostrapping resampling, 0.753-0.791). The cumulative incidences of the main outcome for the risk scale quartiles were 1.613 (Q1), 3.815 (Q2), 8.378 (Q3), and 20.436 (Q4) cases per 100 persons/y (P <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

HHF was common in this AF cohort. The combination of certain clinical characteristics can identify patients with a very high risk of HHF.

Association of Atrial Fibrillation Progression With Left Atrial Functional Reserve and Its Reversibility

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) progression is closely related to heart failure occurrence, and catheter ablation carries a beneficial effect for heart failure prevention. Recently, particular attention has been given to left atrial (LA) function and functional reserve in the pathogenesis linking AF and heart failure, although its significance and reversibility is not well studied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We prospectively investigated 164 patients with AF with normal left ventricular systolic function and free from heart failure who underwent first catheter ablation and pre-/postprocedural echocardiography. Conventional and speckle-tracking echocardiography were performed at rest and during passive leg lifting to assess LA size, LA reservoir strain (LARS), and functional reserve calculated as passive leg lifting-LARS - rest-LARS. Patients were categorized into 3 AF subtypes: paroxysmal AF (N=95), persistent AF (PeAF; N=50), and long-standing persistent AF (LS-PeAF; N=19). The PeAF and LS-PeAF groups had larger LA size and reduced LARS compared with the paroxysmal AF group (all P<0.05). LA functional reserve was significantly impaired in the LS-PeAF group (P=0.003). In multivariable analysis, LS-PeAF and advanced age were significantly associated with impaired LA functional reserve. Among 149 patients with sinus rhythm 1 to 2 days after catheter ablation, LARS was significantly improved in both PeAF and LS-PeAF groups but was still lower than that in the paroxysmal AF group. Sinus rhythm restoration also led to amelioration of LA functional reserve in patients with LS-PeAF.

CONCLUSIONS

AF progression was related to impaired LARS and LA functional reserve, and restoration of sinus rhythm might contribute to early LA reverse remodeling.

Heart failure in older patients with atrial fibrillation: incidence and risk factors

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is linked to heart failure (HF). However, little has been published on the factors that may precipitate the onset of HF in AF patients. We aimed to determine the incidence, predictors, and prognosis of incident HF in older patients with AF with no prior history of HF.

METHODS

Patients with AF older than 80 years and without prior HF were identified between 2014 and 2018.

RESULTS

A total of 5794 patients (mean age, 85.2±3.8 years; 63.2% women) were followed up for 3.7 years. Incident HF, predominantly with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, developed in 33.3% (incidence rate, 11.5-100 people-year). Multivariate analysis identified 11 clinical risk factors for incident HF, irrespective of HF subtype: significant valvular heart disease (HR, 1.99; 95%CI, 1.73-2.28), reduced baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (HR, 1.92; 95%CI, 1.68-2.19), chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (HR, 1.59; 95%CI, 1.40-1.82), enlarged left atrium (HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.33-1.62), renal dysfunction (HR 1.36, 95%CI 1.24-1.49), malnutrition (HR, 1.33; 95%CI, 1.21-1.46), anemia (HR, 1.30; 95%CI, 1.17-1.44), permanent AF (HR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.03-1.28), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.13; 95%CI, 1.01-1.27), age per year (HR, 1.04; 95%CI, 1.02-1.05), and high body mass index for each kg/m2 (HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 1.02-1.04). The presence of incident HF nearly doubled the mortality risk (HR, 1.67; 95%CI, 1.53-1.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of HF in this cohort was relatively frequent and nearly doubled the mortality risk. Eleven risk factors for HF were identified, expanding the scope for primary prevention among elderly patients with AF.

Statin Therapy Is Associated With a Lower Risk of Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Whether statin use can reduce the risk of heart failure (HF) remains controversial. The present study evaluates the association between statin use and HF in patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation from 2010 to 2018 were included. An inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline covariates between statin users (n=23 239) and statin nonusers (n=29 251). The primary outcome was incident HF. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk regression were used to evaluate the risk of HF between statin users and nonusers. The median age of the cohort was 74.7 years, and 47.3% were women. Over a median follow-up of 5.1 years, incident HF occurred in 3673 (15.8%) statin users and 5595 (19.1%) statin nonusers. Statin use was associated with a 19% lower risk of HF (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78-0.85]). Restricted to the statin users, duration of statin use was measured during follow-up; compared with short-term use (3 months to <2 years), there was a stepwise reduction in the risk of incident HF among those with 2 to <4 years of statin use (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.84-0.88]), 4 to <6 years of statin use (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.72-0.76]), and ≥6 years of statin use (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.69-0.74]). Subgroup analysis showed consistent reductions in the risk of HF with statin use.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of incident HF in a duration-dependent manner among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Utility of left ventricular ejection fraction in atrial fibrillation patients without pre-existing heart failure

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus has been placed on the prevention of HF in patients with AF. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is an established echocardiographic parameter in HF patients. We sought to investigate the association of LVEF with HF events in AF patients without pre-existing HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Japan. In this analysis, we excluded patients with pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following: prior HF hospitalization, New York Heart Association class ≥ 2 in association with heart disease, or LVEF < 40%). Among 3233 AF patients without pre-existing HF, we investigated 2459 patients with the data of LVEF at enrolment. We divided the patients into three groups stratified by LVEF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%), below normal LVEF (50-59%), and normal LVEF (≥60%)] and compared the backgrounds and incidence of HF hospitalization between the groups. Of 2459 patients [mean age: 72.4 ± 10.5 years, female: 917 (37%), paroxysmal AF: 1405 (57%), and mean CHA2 DS2 -VASc score: 3.0 ± 1.6], the mean LVEF was 66 ± 8% [mildly reduced LVEF: 114 patients (5%), below normal LVEF: 300 patients (12%), and normal LVEF: 2045 patients (83%)]. Patients with lower LVEF demonstrated lower prevalence of female and paroxysmal AF (both P < 0.01), but age and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score were comparable between the three groups (both P > 0.05). During the median follow-up period of 6.0 years, 255 patients (10%) were hospitalized for HF (annual incidence: 1.9% per person-year). Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated that lower LVEF strata were independently associated with the risk of HF [mildly reduced LVEF (40-49%): hazard ratio = 2.98, 95% confidence interval = 1.99-4.45 and below normal LVEF (50-59%): hazard ratio = 2.01, 95% confidence interval = 1.44-2.82, compared with normal LVEF (≥60%)] after adjustment by age, sex, type of AF, and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. LVEF < 60% was significantly associated with the higher risk of HF hospitalization across all major subgroups without significant interaction (P for interaction; all P > 0.05). LVEF had an independent and incremental prognostic value for HF hospitalization in addition to natriuretic peptide levels in AF patients without pre-existing HF.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower LVEF was significantly associated with the higher incidence of HF hospitalization in AF patients without pre-existing HF, leading to the future risk stratification for and prevention of incident HF in AF patients.

Association between serum alkaline phosphatase and cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation

High alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels are reported to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Given the pathological link with CKD, a similar relationship may exist in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We retrospectively evaluated 1,719 patients with AF and normal hepatic function who were registered in the Shinken Database between November 2011 and March 2017. Study patients were divided into three groups according to ALP value tertiles with cut-offs of 175 and 227 IU/L (normal range: 95-350 IU/L). Each group's incidence rate was recorded, and the risks of cardiovascular events and each component for patients in the middle and high ALP tertiles were compared with those in the low tertile and evaluated using Cox regression models. The additional predictive value of the high ALP tertile over the existing risk scores for the components of cardiovascular events was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. During the median follow-up of 731 days (IQR: 444-1095 days), 137 cardiovascular events occurred, with incidence rates of 2.94%, 3.44%, and 6.19%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively. Of these cardiovascular events, heart failure had the highest incidence rates (1.34%, 1.89%, and 4.29%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively) and the incidence rates of the other components of cardiovascular event were similar in each ALP groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis yielded hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-1.96) and 1.62 (95% CI 1.06-2.48) for cardiovascular events and 1.66 (95% CI 0.87-3.15) and 2.50 (95% CI 1.39-4.48) for heart failure admission in the middle and high ALP tertiles, respectively. By ROC curve analysis for heart failure admission showed that the high ALP tertile lacked significant additive predictive value over the existing risk scores. High serum ALP levels, even those in the normal range, were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, especially heart failure admission in patients with AF.

Hypertension and atrial fibrillation

Hypertension is the most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor underlying atrial fibrillation and is present in up to 40% of patients with atrial fibrillation. Furthermore, attributable risk studies have shown that a history of hypertension contributes to up to 24% of incident atrial fibrillation. New data suggest that even early forms of hypertension (prehypertension and aortic stiffness) are associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation development. Hypertension and prehypertension are therefore critical mediators for the development of atrial fibrillation. Mechanisms for the association between hypertension and atrial fibrillation include diffuse electro-structural changes to the left atrium, driven by the haemodynamic and neurohormonal influences of hypertension and other, frequently coexisting, cardiovascular risk factors. Management of hypertension in atrial fibrillation should focus not only on blood pressure reduction but also on a comprehensive risk factor modification strategy. Such strategies have been shown to be associated with significant improvements in atrial fibrillation symptom burden as well as improved arrhythmia-free survival and reversal of the progression of atrial fibrillation. These strategies should focus on dietary modifications as well as prescribed exercise programmes involving a multidisciplinary team and patient-centred atrial fibrillation care. Risk factor management, supplemented by antihypertensive medications as needed, provides the optimum strategy for improving outcomes and even reversing the natural progression of atrial fibrillation in patients with hypertension.

Machine Learning Risk Prediction for Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of heart failure (HF); however, little focus is placed on the risk stratification for, and prevention of, incident HF in patients with AF.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to construct and validate a machine learning (ML) prediction model for HF hospitalization in patients with AF.

METHODS

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of patients with AF in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. We divided the data set of the registry into derivation (n = 2,383) and validation (n = 2,011) cohorts. An ML model was built to predict the incidence of HF hospitalization using the derivation cohort, and predictive ability was examined using the validation cohort.

RESULTS

HF hospitalization occurred in 606 patients (14%) during a median follow-up period of 4.4 years in the entire registry. Data of transthoracic echocardiography and biomarkers were frequently nominated as important predictive variables across all 6 ML models. The ML model based on a random forest algorithm using 7 variables (age, history of HF, creatinine clearance, cardiothoracic ratio on x-ray, left ventricular [LV] ejection fraction, LV end-systolic diameter, and LV asynergy) had high prediction performance (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC]: 0.75) and was significantly superior to the Framingham HF risk model (AUC: 0.67; P < 0.001). Based on Kaplan-Meier curves, the ML model could stratify the risk of HF hospitalization during the follow-up period (log-rank; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The ML model revealed important predictors and helped us to stratify the risk of HF, providing opportunities for the prevention of HF in patients with AF.

Less Known but Clinically Relevant Comorbidities of Atrial Fibrillation: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

The important risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population are not always equally important in specific and relatively prevalent diseases.

OBJECTIVE

The main goal of this narrative review is to focus attention on the presence and the relationship of AF with several important diseases, such as cancer or sepsis, in order to: 1) stimulate further research in the field, and 2) draw attention to this relationship and search for AF in clinical practice.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, SCOPUS, Elsevier, Wiley, Springer, Oxford Journals, Cambridge, SAGE, and Google Scholar for less-known comorbidities of AF. The search was limited to publications in English. No time limits were applied.

RESULTS

AF is widely represented in cardiovascular and other important diseases, even in those in which AF is rarely mentioned. In some specific clinical subsets of AF patients (e.g., patients with sepsis or cancer), the general risk factors for AF may not be so important. Patients with new-onset AF have a several-fold increase in relative risk of cancer, deep vein thrombosis, and pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) during the follow-up.

CONCLUSION

AF presence, prognosis, and optimal therapeutic approach are insufficiently recognised in several prevalent diseases, including life-threatening ones. There is a need for a better search for AF in PTE, pulmonary oedema, aortic dissection, sepsis, cancer and several gastrointestinal diseases. Improved AF detection would influence treatment and improve outcomes.

Extended ECG Improves Classification of Paroxysmal and Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Based on P- and f-Waves

Background

The standard 12-lead ECG has been shown to be of value in characterizing atrial conduction properties. The added value of extended ECG recordings (longer recordings from more sites) has not been systematically explored yet.

Objective

The aim of this study is to employ an extended ECG to identify characteristics of atrial electrical activity related to paroxysmal vs. persistent atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods

In 247 participants scheduled for AF ablation, an extended ECG was recorded (12 standard plus 3 additional leads, 5 min recording, no filtering). For patients presenting in sinus rhythm (SR), the signal-averaged P-wave and the spatiotemporal P-wave variability was analyzed. For patients presenting in AF, f-wave properties in the QRST (the amplitude complex of the ventricular electrical activity: Q-, R-, S-, and T-wave)-canceled ECG were determined.

Results

Significant differences between paroxysmal (N = 152) and persistent patients with AF (N = 95) were found in several P-wave and f-wave parameters, including parameters that can only be calculated from an extended ECG. Furthermore, a moderate, but significant correlation was found between echocardiographic parameters and P-wave and f-wave parameters. There was a moderate correlation of left atrial (LA) diameter with P-wave energy duration (r = 0.317, p < 0.001) and f-wave amplitude in lead A3 (r = -0.389, p = 0.002). The AF-type classification performance significantly improved when parameters calculated from the extended ECG were taken into account [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.58, interquartile range (IQR) 0.50-0.64 for standard ECG parameters only vs. AUC = 0.76, IQR 0.70-0.80 for extended ECG parameters, p < 0.001].

Conclusion

The P- and f-wave analysis of extended ECG configurations identified specific ECG features allowing improved classification of paroxysmal vs. persistent AF. The extended ECG significantly improved AF-type classification in our analyzed data as compared to a standard 10-s 12-lead ECG. Whether this can result in a better clinical AF type classification warrants further prospective study.

The role of non-invasive devices for the telemonitoring of heart failure patients

Heart failure (HF) patients represent one of the most prevalent as well as one of the most fragile population encountered in the cardiology and internal medicine departments nowadays. Estimated to account for around 26 million people worldwide, diagnosed patients present a poor prognosis and quality of life with a clinical history accompanied by repeated hospital admissions caused by an exacerbation of their chronic condition. The frequent hospitalizations and the extended hospital stays mean an extremely high economic burden for healthcare institutions. Meanwhile, the number of chronically diseased and elderly patients is continuously rising, and a lack of specialized physicians is evident. To cope with this health emergency, more efficient strategies for patient management, more accurate diagnostic tools, and more efficient preventive plans are needed. In recent years, telemonitoring has been introduced as the potential answer to solve such needs. Different methodologies and devices have been progressively investigated for effective home monitoring of cardiologic patients. Invasive hemodynamic devices, such as CardioMEMS™, have been demonstrated to be reducing hospitalizations and mortality, but their use is however restricted to limited cases. The role of external non-invasive devices for remote patient monitoring, instead, is yet to be clarified. In this review, we summarized the most relevant studies and devices that, by utilizing non-invasive telemonitoring, demonstrated whether beneficial effects in the management of HF patients were effective.

Heart failure and atrial fibrillation in patients with an interatrial shunt

OBJECTIVE

Congenital interatrial shunt can unload the left atrium (LA) and may lower the risk of new-onset heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated the risk of new-onset HF or AF in patients with and without interatrial shunt.

METHODS

We enrolled 2660 consecutive patients with acute stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) who underwent transesophageal echocardiography at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2018. The primary outcomes were 10-year new-onset HF, new-onset AF, and new-onset HF or AF composite.

RESULTS

Overall, 466 (17.5%) patients with an interatrial shunt had smaller E velocity (0.66 ± 0.21 vs. 0.69 ± 0.22 m/s, P = 0.037) and smaller E/e' (9.1 ± 4.0 vs. 10.0 ± 5.0, P = 0.001) than 2194 (82.5%) patients without an interatrial shunt. The 10-year incidence of AF, HF, and AF or HF composite was lower in patients with an interatrial shunt (10-year AF, 11.2 vs. 17.8%, P < 0.001; 10-year HF, 6.2 vs. 10.4%, P = 0.005; 10-year AF or HF composite, 16.5 vs. 23.4%, P = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, the presence of an interatrial shunt was associated with a 38% (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.40-0.96), 40% (HR 0.60; 95% CI 0.39-0.93), and 26% (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.96) reduced risk for new-onset HF, AF, and new-onset HF or AF composite, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In patients with interatrial shunt, the risk of AF and HF was lower. Interatrial shunt may be beneficial, and the closure of an interatrial shunt should be performed only in carefully selected patients. An interatrial shunt can unload the left atrium. In patients with stroke or TIA, the presence of an interatrial shunt was associated with a reduced risk for new-onset HF and AF. AF atrial fibrillation, HF heart failure, HR hazard ratio, LA left atrium.

Is Screening for Atrial Fibrillation and Its Risk Factors Useful and Cost-Effective?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major, preventable cause of stroke, whose prevalence is increasing with the aging of the population. There are safe and effective anticoagulation therapies to prevent stroke and new technologies that can identify AF in asymptomatic individuals. Ongoing research will determine if AF screening is cost-effective and will define the best screening strategies. The effectiveness of AF screening can be enhanced by simultaneously screening for the cardiovascular conditions that predispose to the development and progression of AF and its complications. Future studies evaluating an integrated screening program on outcomes, health care utilization, and cost are needed.

Diabetes mellitus and risk of new-onset and recurrent heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Despite mounting evidence of the positive relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and heart failure (HF), the entire context of the magnitude of risk for HF in relation to DM remains insufficiently understood. The principal reason is because new‐onset HF (HF occurring in participants without a history of HF) and recurrent HF (HF re‐occurring in patients with a history of HF) are not discriminated. This meta‐analysis aims to comprehensively and separately assess the risk of new‐onset and recurrent HF depending on the presence or absence of DM. We systematically searched cohort studies that examined the relationship between DM and new‐onset or recurrent HF using EMBASE and MEDLINE (from 1 Jan 1950 to 28 Jul 2019). The risk ratio (RR) for HF in individuals with DM compared with those without DM was pooled with a random‐effects model. Seventy‐four and 38 eligible studies presented data on RRs for new‐onset and recurrent HF, respectively. For new‐onset HF, the pooled RR [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 69 studies that examined HF as a whole [i.e. combining HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF)] was 2.14 (1.96–2.34). The large between‐study heterogeneity (I² = 99.7%, P < 0.001) was significantly explained by mean age [pooled RR (95% CI) 2.60 (2.38–2.84) for mean age < 60 years vs. pooled RR (95% CI) 1.95 (1.79–2.13) for mean age ≥ 60 years] (P < 0.001). Pooled RRs (95% CI) of seven and eight studies, respectively, that separately examined HFpEF and HFrEF risk were 2.22 (2.02–2.43) for HFpEF and 2.73 (2.71–2.75) for HFrEF. The risk magnitudes between HFpEF and HFrEF were not significantly different in studies that examined both HFpEF and HFrEF risks (P = 0.86). For recurrent HF, pooled RR (95% CI) of the 38 studies was 1.39 (1.33–1.45). The large between‐study heterogeneity (I² = 80.1%, P < 0.001) was significantly explained by the proportion of men [pooled RR (95% CI) 1.53 (1.40–1.68) for < 65% men vs. 1.32 (1.25–1.39) for ≥65% men (P = 0.01)] or the large pooled RR for studies of only participants with HFpEF [pooled RR (95% CI), 1.73 (1.32–2.26) (P = 0.002)]. Results indicate that DM is a significant risk factor for both new‐onset and recurrent HF. It is suggested that the risk magnitude is large for new‐onset HF especially in young populations and for recurrent HF especially in women or individuals with HFpEF. DM is associated with future HFpEF and HFrEF to the same extent.

Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation - An Update on Clinical and Echocardiographic Implications

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in adults and has unfavorable consequences such as stroke, heart failure (HF), and death. HF is the most common adverse event following AF and the leading cause of death. Therefore, identifying the association between AF and HF is important to establish risk stratification for HF in AF. Recent studies suggested that left atrial and ventricular fibrosis is an important link between AF and HF, and the prognostic impact may differ with respect to HF subtype, stratified with left ventricular ejection fraction (EF). Mortality risk in patients with concurrent AF and HF with reduced EF (HFrEF) appears slightly higher compared with those with concurrent AF and HF with preserved EF (HFpEF). On the other hand, the prognostic impact of HF in AF is similar between HFrEF and HFpEF. Further, left atrial size, as well as left atrial and left ventricular functional assessment, are reported to be useful for the prediction of HF in AF, incremental to the conventional risk factors. In this review, we focus on the epidemiological, pathophysiological, and prognostic associations between AF and HF, and review the clinical and echocardiographic predictors for HF in AF.

Modifiable risk factors predict incident atrial fibrillation and heart failure

Objective

Heart failure (HF) frequently complicates atrial fibrillation (AF) and significantly increases mortality risk. Limited data exist on the modifiable risk factors associated with development of HF in AF patients.

Methods

We examined two large, prospective, population-based cohorts without prior AF or HF at baseline: Malmö Preventive Project (MPP, n=32 625) and Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS, n=27 695). Using Lunn-McNeil competing risks, multivariable Cox models were constructed to determine hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of risk factors for incident HF with AF, and AF alone.

Results

Mean follow-up in MPP and MDCS was 27.6±8.4 and 17.7±5.3 years. In MPP, body mass index (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.13 vs HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.06 per kg/m²), systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.26 vs HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.10 per 10 mm Hg) and current cigarette smoking (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.95 vs HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.32) had stronger associations with incident AF with HF compared with AF alone (all p for difference <0.0001). Similar results were observed in MDCS (all p for difference <0.009). These three risk factors and diabetes accounted for 51.8% and 54.1% of the population attributable risk (PAR) for AF with HF in MPP and MDCS, respectively, compared with 20.1% and 27.0% for AF alone.

Conclusions

Obesity, hypertension and active smoking preferentially associated with AF with HF, compared with AF alone, and accounted for >50% of the PAR. Randomised trials are needed to assess whether risk factor modification can reduce the incidence of AF with HF and reduce mortality.

Type 2 diabetes increases the long-term risk of heart failure and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Impact of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on non-thromboembolic outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) is insufficiently explored. This prospective cohort study of AF patients aimed (i) to analyse the association between T2DM and heart failure (HF) events (including new-onset HF), and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, (ii) to assess the impact of baseline T2DM treatment on outcomes, and (iii) to explore characteristics of new-onset HF phenotypes in relation to T2DM status.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Of 1803 AF patients (515/1288, with/without prior HF), 389 (22%) had T2DM at baseline. After 5 years of median follow-up, T2DM patients had an 85% greater risk of HF events [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.85; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.51-2.28; P < 0.001], including a 45% increased risk for new-onset HF (1.45; 1.17-2.28; P = 0.015). T2DM conferred a 56% higher all-cause (1.56, 1.22-2.01; P = 0.003) and a 48% higher cardiovascular mortality (1.48; 1.34-1.93; P = 0.007). Fine-Gray analysis, with mortality as a competing risk, confirmed greater HF risk among T2DM patients. All risks were highest among insulin-treated patients. The prevalence of new-onset HF phenotypes was as follows: 67% preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), 20% mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and 13% reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). On time-dependent Cox regression, adjusted for baseline characteristics and an interim acute coronary event, T2DM increased aHRs for new-onset HFpEF (2.38; 1.30-4.58; P <0.001) and the combined HFmrEF/HFrEF (1.77; 1.11-3.62; P = 0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

Atrial fibrillation patients with T2DM have independently increased risk of new-onset/recurrent HF events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, particularly when insulin-treated. The prevailing phenotype of new-onset HF was HFpEF; T2DM conferred higher risk of both HFpEF and HFmrEF/HFrEF.

Age-Dependent Prognostic Impact of Paroxysmal Versus Sustained Atrial Fibrillation on the Incidence of Cardiac Death and Heart Failure Hospitalization (the Fushimi AF Registry)

Data regarding the relation of the type of atrial fibrillation (AF) to the incidence of cardiac events remain scarce. This study sought to investigate the association of AF type with the incidences of cardiac death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization between paroxysmal and sustained (persistent/permanent) AF in the overall population and in age subgroups (≤74, 75 to 84, and ≥85 years), using the data from a Japanese community-based prospective survey, the Fushimi AF Registry. The participants started to be enrolled since March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,304 patients by the end of November 2017. Patients with sustained AF (n = 2,187, 50.8%) had more co-morbidities with higher mean CHA₂DS₂-VASc score than those with paroxysmal AF (n = 2,117, 49.2%) (sustained vs paroxysmal: 3.57 ± 1.69 vs 3.17 ± 1.67, p <0.001). During a median follow-up of 1,307 (interquartile range: 709 to 2,156) days, the composite of cardiac death and HF hospitalization occurred more frequently in those with sustained AF (event rate: 5.1 vs 2.8 per 100 person-years; p <0.001). On multivariate analysis, sustained AF was independently associated with higher incidence of this composite end point (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12 to 1.63, p = 0.002). In age subgroups, this association was observed only in the younger AF patients (≤74 years) (adjusted HR: 2.03, 95% CI: 1.44 to 2.86, p <0.001), but not in the older subgroups (p = 0.018 for interaction). In conclusion, sustained AF was associated with higher incidence of the composite of cardiac death and HF hospitalization than paroxysmal AF, with different relations seen depending on age subgroups.

Usefulness of Left Atrial Volume as an Independent Predictor of Development of Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Left atrial (LA) volume is known as a robust predictor of heart failure (HF) development in patients with sinus rhythm. However, among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), the utility of LA volume for prediction of HF development has not been determined. The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of LA volume for prediction of HF development in patients with AF. Among adult patients who were referred for transthoracic echocardiography, those with AF at the baseline echocardiography were included and prospectively followed up to new-onset HF events. Patients who had significant valvular heart disease, congenital heart disease, or reduced left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction were excluded. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of HF development. Of a total of 562 patients, 422 (mean age 69.6 ± 9.7 years, 66.1% men) met study criteria, and 52 (12.3%) developed HF during a mean follow-up of 55 ± 43 months. Patients with HF events had larger indexed LA volume, compared with those without HF events (69 ± 46 vs 50 ± 23 ml/m², p <0.0001). In a multivariable analysis adjusted for other co-morbidities, LA volume was a significant predictor for HF development [per 10 ml/m²; hazard ratio (HR) 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06 to 1.22, p <0.001], independently of age (per 10 years; HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.52, p <0.01), LV ejection fraction (per 10%; HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.86, p <0.01), and indexed LV mass (per 10 g/m²; HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.24, p <0.05). Also, LA volume had an incremental effect for prediction of HF development to these conventional risk factors (p <0.0001). In conclusion, LA volume provides prognostic information for the prediction of future HF events in patients with AF.

Catheter ablation in atrial fibrillation: is there a mortality benefit in patients with diabetes and heart failure?

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most commonly sustained arrhythmia, and patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) exhibit an increased incidence of AF. Besides DM, heart failure (HF) shares pathophysiological links with AF, mainly related to the pathological remodeling of hearts affected by structural disease. As in a vicious circle, AF may contribute to HF worsening and increased mortality in patients with structural heart diseases, and the outcome may be further impaired when concomitant DM is present. Although no data directly referring to DM patients with HF are available, indirect information can be drawn from large studies on patients with HF and AF. The present review discusses the outcome of AF ablation in patients with DM and HF, focusing on safety, efficacy, and most particularly on hard endpoints such as mortality and thromboembolic event incidence.

Effects of Prevalent and Incident Atrial Fibrillation on Renal Outcome, Cardiovascular Events, and Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Little is known about how incident atrial fibrillation (AF) affects the clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and whether there is a different influence between pre-existing and incident AF.

METHODS

Incident CKD patients from 2000 to 2013 were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan and they were classified as non-AF (n = 15,251), prevalent AF (n = 612), and incident AF (n = 588). The outcomes of interest were end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke or systemic thromboembolism.

RESULTS

Compared with CKD patients without AF, those with prevalent or incident AF were associated with higher adjusted rates of ESRD (hazard ratio (HR), 1.40; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.32-1.48; HR, 2.91; 95% CI, 2.74-3.09, respectively), stroke or systemic thromboembolism (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.77-2.03; HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.54-1.81, respectively), AMI (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.09-1.41; HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.75-2.27, respectively), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.56-1.72; HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 2.06-2.29, respectively), and CV mortality (HR, 2.95; 95% CI, 2.62-3.32; HR, 4.61; 95% CI, 4.09-5.20, respectively). Intriguingly, CKD patients with prevalent AF were associated with lower adjusted rates of ESRD, AMI, all-cause mortality, and CV mortality compared with those with incident AF.

CONCLUSION

Both incident and prevalent AF were independently associated with greater risks of AMI, all-cause mortality, CV mortality, ESRD, and stroke or systemic thromboembolism. Our findings are novel in that, compared with prevalent AF, incident AF possessed an even higher risk of some clinical consequences, including ESRD, all-cause mortality, CV mortality, and AMI.

Diabetes mellitus, blood glucose and the risk of heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The strength of the association between diabetes and risk of heart failure has differed between previous studies and the available studies have not been summarized in a meta-analysis. We therefore quantified the association between diabetes and blood glucose and heart failure in a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to May 3rd 2018. Prospective studies on diabetes mellitus or blood glucose and heart failure risk were included. A random effects model was used to calculate summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seventy seven studies were included. Among the population-based prospective studies, the summary RR for individuals with diabetes vs. no diabetes was 2.06 (95% CIs: 1.73-2.46, I² = 99.8%, n = 30 studies, 401495 cases, 21416780 participants). The summary RR was 1.23 (95% CI: 1.15-1.32, I² = 78.2%, n = 10, 5344 cases, 91758 participants) per 20 mg/dl increase in blood glucose and there was evidence of a J-shaped association with nadir around 90 mg/dl and increased risk even within the pre-diabetic blood glucose range. Among the patient-based studies the summary RR was 1.69 (95% CI: 1.57-1.81, I² = 85.5%, p_{heterogeneity}<0.0001) for diabetes vs. no diabetes (n = 41, 100284 cases and >613925 participants) and 1.25 (95% CI: 0.89-1.75, I² = 95.6%, p_{heterogeneity}<0.0001) per 20 mg/dl increase in blood glucose (1016 cases, 34309 participants, n = 2). In the analyses of diabetes and heart failure there was low or no heterogeneity among the population-based studies that adjusted for alcohol intake and physical activity and among the patient-based studies there was no heterogeneity among studies with ≥10 years follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that individuals with diabetes are at an increased risk of developing heart failure and there is evidence of increased risk even within the pre-diabetic range of blood glucose.

Cardiovascular Events after New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Adults with CKD: Results from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common sustained arrhythmia in CKD, is associated with poor clinical outcomes in both patients without CKD and patients with dialysis-treated ESRD. However, less is known about AF-associated outcomes in patients with CKD who do not require dialysis.

METHODS

To prospectively examine the association of new-onset AF with subsequent risks of cardiovascular disease events and death among adults with CKD, we studied participants enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study who did not have AF at baseline. Outcomes included heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and death occurring after diagnosis of AF. We used Cox regression models and marginal structural models to examine the association of incident AF with subsequent risk of cardiovascular disease events and death, adjusting for patient characteristics, laboratory values, and medication use.

RESULTS

Among 3080 participants, 323 (10.5%) developed incident AF during a mean 6.1 years of follow-up. Compared with participants who did not develop AF, those who did had higher adjusted rates of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR], 5.17; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.89 to 6.87), myocardial infarction (HR, 3.64; 95% CI, 2.50 to 5.31), stroke (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.50 to 4.74), and death (HR, 3.30; 95% CI, 2.65 to 4.12). These associations remained robust with additional adjustment for biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac stress, and mineral metabolism; left ventricular mass; ejection fraction; and left atrial diameter.

CONCLUSIONS

Incident AF is independently associated with two- to five-fold increased rates of developing subsequent heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, or death in adults with CKD. These findings have important implications for cardiovascular risk reduction.

Atrial Fibrillation Mechanisms and Implications for Catheter Ablation

AF is a heterogeneous rhythm disorder that is related to a wide spectrum of etiologies and has broad clinical presentations. Mechanisms underlying AF are complex and remain incompletely understood despite extensive research. They associate interactions between triggers, substrate and modulators including ionic and anatomic remodeling, genetic predisposition and neuro-humoral contributors. The pulmonary veins play a key role in the pathogenesis of AF and their isolation is associated to high rates of AF freedom in patients with paroxysmal AF. However, ablation of persistent AF remains less effective, mainly limited by the difficulty to identify the sources sustaining AF. Many theories were advanced to explain the perpetuation of this form of AF, ranging from a single localized focal and reentrant source to diffuse bi-atrial multiple wavelets. Translating these mechanisms to the clinical practice remains challenging and limited by the spatio-temporal resolution of the mapping techniques. AF is driven by focal or reentrant activities that are initially clustered in a relatively limited atrial surface then disseminate everywhere in both atria. Evidence for structural remodeling, mainly represented by atrial fibrosis suggests that reentrant activities using anatomical substrate are the key mechanism sustaining AF. These reentries can be endocardial, epicardial, and intramural which makes them less accessible for mapping and for ablation. Subsequently, early interventions before irreversible remodeling are of major importance. Circumferential pulmonary vein isolation remains the cornerstone of the treatment of AF, regardless of the AF form and of the AF duration. No ablation strategy consistently demonstrated superiority to pulmonary vein isolation in preventing long term recurrences of atrial arrhythmias. Further research that allows accurate identification of the mechanisms underlying AF and efficient ablation should improve the results of PsAF ablation.

Integrating new approaches to atrial fibrillation management: the 6th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference

There are major challenges ahead for clinicians treating patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The population with AF is expected to expand considerably and yet, apart from anticoagulation, therapies used in AF have not been shown to consistently impact on mortality or reduce adverse cardiovascular events. New approaches to AF management, including the use of novel technologies and structured, integrated care, have the potential to enhance clinical phenotyping or result in better treatment selection and stratified therapy. Here, we report the outcomes of the 6th Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation Network (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), held at the European Society of Cardiology Heart House in Sophia Antipolis, France, 17-19 January 2017. Sixty-two global specialists in AF and 13 industry partners met to develop innovative solutions based on new approaches to screening and diagnosis, enhancing integration of AF care, developing clinical pathways for treating complex patients, improving stroke prevention strategies, and better patient selection for heart rate and rhythm control. Ultimately, these approaches can lead to better outcomes for patients with AF.

Risk factors for heart failure hospitalizations among patients with atrial fibrillation

Background

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased risk for the development of heart failure (HF). In this study, we aimed to detect predictors of HF hospitalizations in an unselected AF population.

Methods

The Basel Atrial Fibrillation Cohort Study is an ongoing observational multicenter cohort study in Switzerland. For this analysis, 1193 patients with documented AF underwent clinical examination, venous blood sampling and resting 12-lead ECG at baseline. Questionnaires about lifestyle and medical history were obtained in person at baseline and during yearly follow-up phone calls. HF hospitalizations were validated by two independent physicians. Cox regression analyses were performed using a forward selection strategy.

Results

Overall, 29.8% of all patients were female and mean age was 69 ±12 years. Mean follow-up time was 3.7 ±1.5 years. Hospitalization for HF occurred in 110 patients, corresponding to an incidence of 2.5 events per 100 person years of follow-up. Independent predictors for HF were body mass index (HR 1.40 [95%CI 1.17; 1.66], p = 0.0002), chronic kidney disease (2.27 [1.49; 3.45], p = 0.0001), diabetes mellitus (2.13 [1.41; 3.24], p = 0.0004), QTc interval (1.25 [1.04; 1.49], p = 0.02), brain natriuretic peptide (2.19 [1.73; 2.77], p<0.0001), diastolic blood pressure (0.79 [0.65; 0.96], p = 0.02), history of pulmonary vein isolation or electrical cardioversion (0.54 [0.36; 0.80], p = 0.003) and serum chloride (0.82 [0.70; 0.96], p = 0.02).

Conclusions

In this unselected AF population, several traditional cardiovascular risk factors and arrhythmia interventions predicted HF hospitalizations, providing potential opportunities for the implementation of strategies to reduce HF among AF patients.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Incident Heart Failure in Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to identify modifiable risk factors and estimate the impact of risk factor modification on heart failure (HF) risk in women with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF).

BACKGROUND

Incident HF is the most common nonfatal event in patients with AF, although strategies for HF prevention are lacking.

METHODS

We assessed 34,736 participants in the Women's Health Study who were free of prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox models with time-varying assessment of risk factors after AF diagnosis were used to identify significant modifiable risk factors for incident HF.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 20.6 years, 1,495 women developed AF without prevalent HF. In multivariable models, new-onset AF was associated with an increased risk of HF (hazard ratio [HR]: 9.03; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.52 to 10.85). Once women with AF developed HF, all-cause (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.45) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.70 to 4.85) increased. In time-updated, multivariable models accounting for changes in risk factors after AF diagnosis, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg, body mass index ≥30 kg/m², current tobacco use, and diabetes mellitus were each associated with incident HF. The combination of these 4 modifiable risk factors accounted for an estimated 62% (95% CI: 23% to 83%) of the population-attributable risk of HF. Compared with women with 3 or 4 risk factors, those who maintained or achieved optimal risk factor control had a progressive decreased risk of HF (HR for 2 risk factors: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95; 1 risk factor: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.63; and 0 risk factors: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

In women with new-onset AF, modifiable risk factors including obesity, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes accounted for the majority of the population risk of HF. Optimal levels of modifiable risk factors were associated with decreased HF risk. Prospective assessment of risk factor modification at the time of AF diagnosis may warrant future investigation.

Decision-Making in Clinical Practice: Oral Anticoagulant Therapy in Patients with Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation and a Single Additional Stroke Risk Factor

Approximately 1 in 3-4 patients presenting with an ischemic stroke will also have atrial fibrillation (AF), and AF-related strokes can be effectively prevented using oral anticoagulant therapy (OAC), either with well-controlled vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs). In addition, OAC use (both VKAs and NOACs) is associated with a 26% reduction in all-cause mortality (VKAs) or an additional 10% mortality reduction with NOACs relative to VKAs. The decision to use OAC in individual AF patient is based on the estimated balance of the benefit from ischemic stroke reduction against the risk of major OAC-related bleeding [essentially intracranial hemorrhage (ICH)]. Better appreciation of the importance of VKAs' anticoagulation quality [a target time in therapeutic range (TTR) of ≥70%] and the availability of NOACs (which offer better safety compared to VKAs) have decreased the estimated threshold for OAC treatment in AF patients towards lower stroke risk levels. Still, contemporary registry-based data show that OAC is often underused in AF patients at increased risk of stroke. The uncertainty whether to use OAC may be particularly pronounced in AF patients with a single additional stroke risk factor, who are often (mis)perceived as having a "borderline" or insufficient stroke risk to trigger the use of OAC. However, observational data from real-world AF cohorts show that the annual stroke rates in such patients are higher than in patients with no additional stroke risk factors, and OAC use has been associated with reduction in stroke, systemic embolism, or death in comparison to no therapy or aspirin, with no increase in the risk of bleeding relative to aspirin. In this review article, we summarize the basic principles of stroke risk stratification in AF patients and discuss contemporary real-world evidence on OAC use and outcomes of OAC treatment in AF patients with a single additional stroke risk factor in various real-world AF cohorts.

Blood pressure and prognosis in patients with incident heart failure: the Diet, Cancer and Health (DCH) cohort study

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to test the hypothesis that elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with increased risk of stroke, bleeding and death in patients with incident heart failure (HF).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study among subjects who were participants in the Diet, Cancer and Health study, born in Denmark, aged 50-64 years at recruitment. We assessed stroke (ischemic stroke or systemic embolic events), major bleeding, death and the composite endpoint according to degree of BP control in patients with incident HF. BP was assessed prior to HF at cohort entry.

RESULTS

Of the whole cohort of 55,748 subjects, n = 2159 (35 % female) had incident HF, of which 12 % had treatment for hypertension. Median follow-up after incident HF was 3.5 years. High systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and pulse (PP) pressures were associated with an increased risk of stroke, major bleeding and the composite endpoint. For death and stroke/death, the relation appeared U-shaped for SBP and DBP. When comparing the highest quartile group (Q4) to first quartile group (Q1), SBP (Q4: SBP >163 mmHg) was associated with significantly higher adjusted hazard rate ratio (HR) for stroke (HR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.00-2.14) and major bleeding (HR 1.68, 95 % CI 1.12-2.53). For DBP (Q4: DBP >94 mmHg), adjusted HR was significantly higher for major bleeding (HR 1.63, 95 % CI 1.13-2.38). The highest quartile of pulse pressure (Q4: PP >74 mmHg) was associated with non-significantly higher risk of stroke (HR 1.40, 95 % CI 0.94-2.06).

CONCLUSION

We have shown for the first time that amongst a population with incident HF, higher baseline systolic, diastolic and pulse pressure levels were associated with a higher rate of adverse events. Our data support the importance for optimised BP control, as part of the holistic management of HF patients.

Risk assessment for incident heart failure in individuals with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a strong risk factor for heart failure (HF); HF onset in patients with AF is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Risk factors that predict HF in individuals with AF in the community are not well established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We examined clinical variables related to the 10-year incidence of HF in 725 individuals (mean 73.3 years, 45% women) with documented AF in the Framingham Heart Study. Event rates for incident HF (n = 161, 48% in women) were comparable in women (4.30 per 100 person-years) and men (3.34 per 100 person-years). Age, body mass index, ECG LV hypertrophy, diabetes, significant murmur, and history of myocardial infarction were positively associated with incident HF in multivariable models (C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.75). We developed a risk algorithm for estimating absolute risk of HF in AF patients with good model fit and calibration (adjusted calibration χ2 statistic 7.29; P(χ2) = 0.61). Applying the algorithm, 47.6% of HF events occurred in the top tertile in men compared with 13.1% in the bottom tertile, and 58.4% in women in the upper tertile compared with 18.2% in the lowest category. For HF type, women had a non-significantly higher incidence of HF with preserved EF compared with men.

CONCLUSIONS

We describe advancing age, LV hypertrophy, body mass index, diabetes, significant heart murmur, and history of myocardial infarction as clinical predictors of incident HF in individuals with AF. A risk algorithm may help identify individuals with AF at high risk of developing HF.