Trends in Dizygotic and Monozygotic Spontaneous Twin Births During the Period 2007-2017 in Lombardy, Northern Italy: A Population-Based Study

In this study, we analyzed the estimated frequency of monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) spontaneous twins in Lombardy during the period 2007-2017. This is a population-based study using the regional healthcare utilization databases of the Lombardy Region. The total number of spontaneous twin deliveries, in separate strata of like and unlike sex, was obtained. Moreover, estimates of DZ and MZ twin births were calculated using Weinberg's method. The standardized rates (SRs), adjusted for maternal age, of DZ and MZ twin births were computed according to calendar period. The twinning rates were calculated among strata of parity and maternal age. Finally, DZ:MZ ratio was calculated. Among the 734,278 spontaneous deliveries, 9176 (12.5 out of 1000 births) couples of twins were identified. In the three periods considered (i.e. 2007-2010, 2011-2014 and 2015-2017), no trend in the SRs of MZ twins was observed, respectively 0.41 (95% CI [0.40, 0.43]), 0.43 (95% CI [0.42, 0.45]) and 0.43 (95% CI[0.42, 0.45]). Differently, a slightly decreasing trend was observed in DZ twins SRs, respectively 0.87 (95% CI [0.84, 0.89]), 0.81 (95% CI [0.79, 0.83]), and 0.78 (95% CI [0.76, 0.80]). As concerns parity and maternal age, the rate of DZ twin births was consistently higher in nulliparae women aged 35 years or more. In our cohort, despite the increase of maternal age, a decline of spontaneous twin births emerged, especially due to the downward trend of DZ twins.

Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility – a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors – which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity – a physiological predisposition to producing twins – had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

The question of whether women who produce twins are more fertile than other women has been debated. Here, the authors analyze a large dataset of pre-industrial birth outcomes and find evidence against the idea of higher fertility and instead that more births lead to more twinning opportunities.

Twin Peaks: more twinning in humans than ever before

STUDY QUESTION

How many twins are born in human populations and how has this changed over recent decades?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Since the 1980s, the global twinning rate has increased by a third, from 9.1 to 12.0 twin deliveries per 1000 deliveries, to about 1.6 million twin pairs each year.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

It was already known that in the 1980s natural twinning rates were low in (East) Asia and South America, at an intermediate level in Europe and North America, and high in many African countries. It was also known that in recent decades, twinning rates have been increasing in the wealthier parts of our world as a result of the rise in medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and delayed childbearing.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We have brought together all information on national twinning rates available from statistical offices, demographic research institutes, individual survey data and the medical literature for the 1980-1985 and the 2010-2015 periods.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

For 165 countries, covering over 99% of the global population, we were able to collect or estimate twinning rates for the 2010-2015 period. For 112 countries, we were also able to obtain twinning rates for 1980-1985.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Substantial increases in twinning rates were observed in many countries in Europe, North America and Asia. For 74 out of 112 countries the increase was more than 10%. Africa is still the continent with highest twinning rates, but Europe, North America and Oceania are catching up rapidly. Asia and Africa are currently home to 80% of all twin deliveries in the world.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

For some countries, data were derived from reports and papers based on hospital registrations which are less representative for the country as a whole than data based on public administrations and national surveys.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The absolute and relative number of twins for the world as a whole is peaking at an unprecedented level. An important reason for this is the tremendous increase in medically assisted reproduction in recent decades. This is highly relevant, as twin deliveries are associated with higher infant and child mortality rates and increased complications for mother and child during pregnancy and during and after delivery.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The contribution of CM was partially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant No 681546, FAMSIZEMATTERS), Nuffield College, and the Leverhulme Trust. The contribution of GP was partially supported by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant No ANR-18-CE36-0007-07). The authors declare no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Fertility in men with hypospadias: A nationwide register-based study using dizygotic twinning rates as an indicator of semen quality

BACKGROUND

It is not known if impaired fertility in men with hypospadias is caused by decreased semen quality or other factors. Semen quality in men born with hypospadias may be impaired due to effects of androgens or testicular dysgenesis but has been very little studied.

OBJECTIVES

To study semen quality in men with hypospadias using dizygotic twinning rates as an epidemiological indicator. We further aimed to study men treated for cryptorchidism, given a hypothesized mutual etiology for decreased semen quality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a population-based study using national Swedish registers. A total of 4,363,165 births between 1964 and 2013 were included. The association between hypospadias and cryptorchidism, and fathering dizygotic multiple births was estimated using logistic regression and presented as odds ratios. The main analyses excluded births conceived using assisted reproductive technology (ART).

RESULTS

We identified a total of 5317 births with fathers with hypospadias, including 26 dizygotic births conceived unassisted. No significant association was found between hypospadias and dizygotic twinning (OR 1.10, 0.75-1.61). We estimated a significantly increased odds for dizygotic multiple births in men treated for cryptorchidism (OR 1.35, 1.01-1.81) which was decreased after exclusion of ART, but the estimate was not significant (OR 0.75, 0.48-1.18).

DISCUSSION

Using dizygotic twinning rates as an indicator of semen quality, we did not find any difference between fathers with hypospadias and controls. Due to sample size, we could not analyze phenotypes separately and can therefore not exclude impaired semen quality in severe hypospadias. We could not demonstrate any association between dizygotic twinning and cryptorchidism. Men treated for cryptorchidism were more likely than controls to use ART to conceive.

CONCLUSION

Men with hypospadias who conceived without ART were not shown to have impaired semen quality using dizygotic twinning as an epidemiological indicator.

Monozygotic twins: Identical or distinguishable for science and law?

Monozygotic twins, also known as monovular twins, share an identical genetic heritage because they are two individuals who derive from the same zygote. For this reason, they have been considered indistinguishable. They represent a limit for the application of markers and analytical methods that are routinely used in forensic science because analyses of DNA fragments (short tandem repeats analysed by capillary electrophoresis) are unable to distinguish monozygotic twins. The recent introduction of ultra-deep next generation sequencing in forensic genetics, also known as massively parallel sequencing, has made it possible to identify a number of genetic variations through genome sequencing (such as copy number variations, single nucleotide polymorphisms and DNA methylation) that make it possible to distinguish monozygotic twins. Here, we present a case of ascertaining biological paternity, in which the alleged father had a monozygotic twin brother. This case led to the examination of international law in similar cases in which the only available biological evidence derives from classical forensic genetic analysis, performed with short tandem repeat (autosomal and/or gonosomal) capillary electrophoresis and the probative value, if recognised, of the next generation sequencing technology in the courtroom.

The East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS): 55 Years Later

The East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS) is a registry of multiple births in the province of East Flanders, Belgium. Since its start in 1964, over 10,000 twin-pairs have been registered. EFPTS has several unique features: it is population-based and prospective, with the possibility of long-term follow-up; the twins (and higher order multiple births) are recruited at birth; basic perinatal data are recorded; chorion type and zygosity are established; since 1969, placental biopsies have been taken and frozen at -20°C for future research. Since its origin, the EFPTS has included placental data and allows differentiation of three subtypes of monozygotic twins based on the time of the initial zygotic division: the dichorionic-diamniotic pairs (early, with splitting before the fourth day after fertilization), the monochorionic-diamniotic pairs (intermediate, splitting between the fourth- and the seventh-day postfertilization) and the monochorionic-monoamniotic pairs (late, splitting after the eighth day postfertilization). Studies can be initiated taking into account primary biases, those originating 'in utero'. Such studies could throw new light on the consequences of early embryological events and the gene-environment interactions as far as periconceptional and intrauterine environment are concerned.

Complex genetics of female fertility

Variation in reproductive lifespan and female fertility have implications for health, population size and ageing. Fertility declines well before general signs of menopause and is also adversely affected by common reproductive diseases, including polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) and endometriosis. Understanding the factors that regulate the timing of puberty and menopause, and the relationships with fertility are important for individuals and for policy. Substantial genetic variation exists for common traits associated with reproductive lifespan and for common diseases influencing female fertility. Genetic studies have identified mutations in genes contributing to disorders of reproduction, and in the last ten years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have transformed our understanding of common genetic contributions to these complex traits and diseases. These studies have made great progress towards understanding the genetic factors contributing to variation in traits and diseases influencing female fertility. The data emerging from GWAS demonstrate the utility of genetics to explain epidemiological observations, revealing shared biological pathways linking puberty timing, fertility, reproductive ageing and health outcomes. Many variants implicate DNA damage/repair genes in variation in the age at menopause with implications for follicle health and ageing. In addition to the discovery of individual genes and pathways, the increasingly powerful studies on common genetic risk factors help interpret the underlying relationships and direction of causation in the regulation of reproductive lifespan, fertility and related traits.

Education in Twins and Their Parents Across Birth Cohorts Over 100 years: An Individual-Level Pooled Analysis of 42-Twin Cohorts

Whether monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins differ from each other in a variety of phenotypes is important for genetic twin modeling and for inferences made from twin studies in general. We analyzed whether there were differences in individual, maternal and paternal education between MZ and DZ twins in a large pooled dataset. Information was gathered on individual education for 218,362 adult twins from 27 twin cohorts (53% females; 39% MZ twins), and on maternal and paternal education for 147,315 and 143,056 twins respectively, from 28 twin cohorts (52% females; 38% MZ twins). Together, we had information on individual or parental education from 42 twin cohorts representing 19 countries. The original education classifications were transformed to education years and analyzed using linear regression models. Overall, MZ males had 0.26 (95% CI [0.21, 0.31]) years and MZ females 0.17 (95% CI [0.12, 0.21]) years longer education than DZ twins. The zygosity difference became smaller in more recent birth cohorts for both males and females. Parental education was somewhat longer for fathers of DZ twins in cohorts born in 1990-1999 (0.16 years, 95% CI [0.08, 0.25]) and 2000 or later (0.11 years, 95% CI [0.00, 0.22]), compared with fathers of MZ twins. The results show that the years of both individual and parental education are largely similar in MZ and DZ twins. We suggest that the socio-economic differences between MZ and DZ twins are so small that inferences based upon genetic modeling of twin data are not affected.

Identical twins in forensic genetics - Epidemiology and risk based estimation of weight of evidence

The increase in the number of forensic genetic loci used for identification purposes results in infinitesimal random match probabilities. These probabilities are computed under assumptions made for rather simple population genetic models. Often, the forensic expert reports likelihood ratios, where the alternative hypothesis is assumed not to encompass close relatives. However, this approach implies that important factors present in real human populations are discarded. This approach may be very unfavourable to the defendant. In this paper, we discuss some important aspects concerning the closest familial relationship, i.e., identical (monozygotic) twins, when reporting the weight of evidence. This can be done even when the suspect has no knowledge of an identical twin or when official records hold no twin information about the suspect. The derived expressions are not original as several authors previously have published results accounting for close familial relationships. However, we revisit the discussion to increase the awareness among forensic genetic practitioners and include new information on medical and societal factors to assess the risk of not considering a monozygotic twin as the true perpetrator. If accounting for a monozygotic twin in the weight of evidence, it implies that the likelihood ratio is truncated at a maximal value depending on the prevalence of monozygotic twins and the societal efficiency of recognising a monozygotic twin. If a monozygotic twin is considered as an alternative proposition, then data relevant for the Danish society suggests that the threshold of likelihood ratios should approximately be between 150,000 and 2,000,000 in order to take the risk of an unrecognised identical, monozygotic twin into consideration. In other societies, the threshold of the likelihood ratio in crime cases may reach other, often lower, values depending on the recognition of monozygotic twins and the age of the suspect. In general, more strictly kept registries will imply larger thresholds on the likelihood ratio as the monozygotic twin explanation gets less probable.

Epidemiology of twinning in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, 1997 to 2007

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to evaluate associations between twinning and maternal demographic factors and periconceptional exposures among infants with and without orofacial clefts.

METHODS

We used data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study; 228 twins and 8242 singletons without birth defects (controls), and 117 twins and 2859 singletons with orofacial clefts, born 1997 to 2007, were included in the analyses. Because of the occurrence of twinning due to the use of assisted reproductive technologies, logistic regression models were computed to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for each exposure, stratified by fertility treatment use. To evaluate factors by zygosity, we used sex-pairing data and a simulation approach to estimate the zygosity of like-sex twin pairs for unassisted conceptions.

RESULTS

Among control mothers who did not use fertility treatments, predictors of twinning included non-Hispanic black maternal race (adjusted odds ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.4), and tobacco smoking (adjusted odds ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4). Among control mothers who used fertility treatments, older maternal age, higher income, and state of residence were associated with twinning. Associations were generally stronger among mothers of dizygotic (estimated) twins than monozygotic (estimated) twins. Results for mothers of infants with isolated orofacial clefts were similar to those of controls.

CONCLUSION

We observed an increased twinning frequency with increasing maternal age, but factors such as maternal race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status may also contribute. Among women receiving fertility treatments, factors associated with twinning suggested a relation with treatment specifics (e.g., treatment type and number of embryos implanted) and availability of insurance coverage.

Fathering of dizygotic twins and risk of prostate cancer: nationwide, population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

An association between male fertility and risk of prostate cancer has been suggested, possibly through lower androgen levels in subfertile men. We evaluated male fertility in relation to risk of prostate cancer by assessing the frequency of fathering of dizygotic twins, a marker of high fertility, among cases of prostate cancer and controls.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study in Prostate Cancer data Base Sweden (PCBaSe), a nationwide, population-based cohort. PCBaSe was linked to the Swedish twin register for information on zygosity for same-sex twins and to other nationwide health care registers and demographic databases for information on socioeconomic factors, comorbidity, and tumor characteristics for 96 301 prostate cancer cases and 378 583 matched controls. To account for the influence of in vitro fertilization on dizygotic twinning, analyses were restricted to men who had fathered children before 1991, when in vitro fertilization was still uncommon in Sweden.

RESULTS

1 112 cases and 4 538 controls had fathered dizygotic twins. Men with dizygotic twins had no increased risk of prostate cancer compared to fathers of singletons; neither for total prostate cancer odds ratio (OR) 0.95(95% CI 0.89-1.02), nor for any risk category, OR 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.12) for low-risk disease, and OR 1.04 (95% CI 0.90-1.22) for metastatic disease.

CONCLUSION

The lack of association between fathering of dizygotic twins and prostate cancer risk give no support for an association between male fertility and prostate cancer risk.

Epidemiologic methods for investigating male fecundity

Fertility is a couple concept that has been measured since the beginning of demography, and male fecundity (his biological capacity to reproduce) is a component of the fertility rate. Unfortunately, we have no way of measuring the male component directly, although several indirect markers can be used. Population registers can be used to monitor the proportion of childless couples, couples who receive donor semen, trends in dizygotic twinning, and infertility diagnoses. Studies using time-to-pregnancy (TTP) may identify couple subfecundity, and TTP data will correlate with sperm quality and quantity as well as sexual activity and a number of other conditions. Having exposure data available for couples with a fecund female partner would make TTP studies of interest in identifying exposures that may affect male fecundity. Biological indicators such as sperm quality and quantity isolate the male component of fertility, and semen data therefore remain an important source of information for research. Unfortunately, often over half of those invited to provide a sperm sample will refuse, and the study is then subject to a selection that may introduce bias. Because the most important time windows for exposures that impair semen production could be early fetal life, puberty, and the time of ejaculation; longitudinal data over decades of time are required. The ongoing monitoring of semen quality and quantity should continue, and surveys monitoring fertility and waiting TTP should also be designed.

The East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS): An Actual Perception

The East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS) is a prospective, population-based registry of multiple births in the province of East-Flanders, Belgium. EFPTS has several unique features: it is population-based and prospective, with the possibility of long-term follow-up; the twins (and higher order multiple births) are recruited at birth; basic perinatal data recorded; chorion type and zygosity established; and since 1969 placental biopsies have been taken and frozen at −20 °C for later determination of genetic markers. The EFPTS is the only large register that includes placental data and allows differentiation of three subtypes of monozygotic (MZ) twins based on the time of the initial zygotic division: the dichorionic–diamnionic pairs (early, with splitting before the fourth day after fertilization), the monochorionic–diamnionic pairs (intermediate, splitting between the fourth and the seventh day post-fertilization), and the monochorionic–monoamnionic pairs (late, splitting after the eighth day post-fertilization). Studies can be initiated taking into account primary biases, those originating ‘in utero’. Such studies could throw new light on the controversy over the validity of the classic twin method, the consequences of early embryological events, and the gene–environment interactions as far as periconceptional and intrauterine environment are concerned.