Neutral Theory and Rapidly Evolving Viral Pathogens

The evolutionary and genetic patterns of African swine fever virus

African swine fever (ASF) is a serious animal disease, and has spread to Africa, Europe and Asia, causing massive economic losses. African swine fever virus (ASFV) is transmitted from a reservoir host (warthog) to domestic pigs via a sylvatic cycle (transmission between warthogs and soft ticks) and a domestic cycle (transmission between domestic pigs) and survives by expressing a variety of genes related to virus-host interactions. We evaluated differences in codon usage patterns among ASFV genotypes and clades and explored the common and specific evolutionary and genetic characteristics of ASFV sequences. We analysed the evolutionary relationships, nucleotide compositions, codon usage patterns, selection pressures (mutational pressure and natural selection) and viral adaptation to host codon usage based on the coding sequences (CDS) of key functional genes of ASFV. AT bias was detected in the six genes analysed, irrespective of clade. The AT bias of genes (A224L, A179L, EP153R) encoding proteins involved in interaction with host cells after infection was high; among them, the AT bias of EP153R was the greatest at 78.3%. A large number of overrepresented codons were identified in EP153R, whereas there were no overrepresented codons with a relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) value of ≥3 in B646L. In most genes, the pattern of selection pressure was similar for each clade, but in EP153R, diverse patterns of selection pressure were captured within the same clade and genotype. As a result of evaluating host adaptation based on the codon adaptation index (CAI), for B646L, E183L, CP204L and A179L, the codon usage patterns in all sequences were more similar to tick than domestic pig or wild boar. However, EP153R showed the lowest average CAI value of 0.52 when selecting tick as a reference set. The genes analysed in this study showed different magnitudes of selection pressure at the clade and genotype levels, which is likely to be related to the function of the encoded proteins and may determine key evolutionary traits of viruses, such as the level of genetic variation and host range. The diversity of codon adaptations at the genetic level in ASFV may account for differences in translational selection in ASFV hosts and provides insight into viral host adaptation and co-evolution.

Some mechanistic underpinnings of molecular adaptations of SARS-COV-2 spike protein by integrating candidate adaptive polymorphisms with protein dynamics

We integrate evolutionary predictions based on the neutral theory of molecular evolution with protein dynamics to generate mechanistic insight into the molecular adaptations of the SARS-COV-2 spike (S) protein. With this approach, we first identified candidate adaptive polymorphisms (CAPs) of the SARS-CoV-2 S protein and assessed the impact of these CAPs through dynamics analysis. Not only have we found that CAPs frequently overlap with well-known functional sites, but also, using several different dynamics-based metrics, we reveal the critical allosteric interplay between SARS-CoV-2 CAPs and the S protein binding sites with the human ACE2 (hACE2) protein. CAPs interact far differently with the hACE2 binding site residues in the open conformation of the S protein compared to the closed form. In particular, the CAP sites control the dynamics of binding residues in the open state, suggesting an allosteric control of hACE2 binding. We also explored the characteristic mutations of different SARS-CoV-2 strains to find dynamic hallmarks and potential effects of future mutations. Our analyses reveal that Delta strain-specific variants have non-additive (i.e., epistatic) interactions with CAP sites, whereas the less pathogenic Omicron strains have mostly additive mutations. Finally, our dynamics-based analysis suggests that the novel mutations observed in the Omicron strain epistatically interact with the CAP sites to help escape antibody binding.

DeepDynaForecast: Phylogenetic-informed graph deep learning for epidemic transmission dynamic prediction

In the midst of an outbreak or sustained epidemic, reliable prediction of transmission risks and patterns of spread is critical to inform public health programs. Projections of transmission growth or decline among specific risk groups can aid in optimizing interventions, particularly when resources are limited. Phylogenetic trees have been widely used in the detection of transmission chains and high-risk populations. Moreover, tree topology and the incorporation of population parameters (phylodynamics) can be useful in reconstructing the evolutionary dynamics of an epidemic across space and time among individuals. We now demonstrate the utility of phylodynamic trees for transmission modeling and forecasting, developing a phylogeny-based deep learning system, referred to as DeepDynaForecast. Our approach leverages a primal-dual graph learning structure with shortcut multi-layer aggregation, which is suited for the early identification and prediction of transmission dynamics in emerging high-risk groups. We demonstrate the accuracy of DeepDynaForecast using simulated outbreak data and the utility of the learned model using empirical, large-scale data from the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic in Florida between 2012 and 2020. Our framework is available as open-source software (MIT license) at github.com/lab-smile/DeepDynaForcast.

Properties and Mechanisms of Deletions, Insertions, and Substitutions in the Evolutionary History of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 has accumulated many mutations since its emergence in late 2019. Nucleotide substitutions leading to amino acid replacements constitute the primary material for natural selection. Insertions, deletions, and substitutions appear to be critical for coronavirus's macro- and microevolution. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of mutations in the mutational hotspots (positions, loci with recurrent mutations, and nucleotide context) is important for disentangling roles of mutagenesis and selection. In the SARS-CoV-2 genome, deletions and insertions are frequently associated with repetitive sequences, whereas C>U substitutions are often surrounded by nucleotides resembling the APOBEC mutable motifs. We describe various approaches to mutation spectra analyses, including the context features of RNAs that are likely to be involved in the generation of recurrent mutations. We also discuss the interplay between mutations and natural selection as a complex evolutionary trend. The substantial variability and complexity of pipelines for the reconstruction of mutations and the huge number of genomic sequences are major problems for the analyses of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. As a solution, we advocate for the development of a centralized database of predicted mutations, which needs to be updated on a regular basis.

SARS-CoV-2 NSP14 governs mutational instability and assists in making new SARS-CoV-2 variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the rapidly evolving RNA virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, has spawned numerous variants since its 2019 emergence. The multifunctional Nonstructural protein 14 (NSP14) enzyme, possessing exonuclease and messenger RNA (mRNA) capping capabilities, serves as a key player. Notably, single and co-occurring mutations within NSP14 significantly influence replication fidelity and drive variant diversification. This study comprehensively examines 120 co-mutations, 68 unique mutations, and 160 conserved residues across NSP14 homologs, shedding light on their implications for phylogenetic patterns, pathogenicity, and residue interactions. Quantitative physicochemical analysis categorizes 3953 NSP14 variants into three clusters, revealing genetic diversity. This research underscoresthe dynamic nature of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, primarily governed by NSP14 mutations. Understanding these genetic dynamics provides valuable insights for therapeutic and vaccine development.

Some mechanistic underpinnings of molecular adaptations of SARS-COV-2 spike protein by integrating candidate adaptive polymorphisms with protein dynamics

We integrate evolutionary predictions based on the neutral theory of molecular evolution with protein dynamics to generate mechanistic insight into the molecular adaptations of the SARS-COV-2 Spike (S) protein. With this approach, we first identified Candidate Adaptive Polymorphisms (CAPs) of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and assessed the impact of these CAPs through dynamics analysis. Not only have we found that CAPs frequently overlap with well-known functional sites, but also, using several different dynamics-based metrics, we reveal the critical allosteric interplay between SARS-CoV-2 CAPs and the S protein binding sites with the human ACE2 (hACE2) protein. CAPs interact far differently with the hACE2 binding site residues in the open conformation of the S protein compared to the closed form. In particular, the CAP sites control the dynamics of binding residues in the open state, suggesting an allosteric control of hACE2 binding. We also explored the characteristic mutations of different SARS-CoV-2 strains to find dynamic hallmarks and potential effects of future mutations. Our analyses reveal that Delta strain-specific variants have non-additive (i.e., epistatic) interactions with CAP sites, whereas the less pathogenic Omicron strains have mostly additive mutations. Finally, our dynamics-based analysis suggests that the novel mutations observed in the Omicron strain epistatically interact with the CAP sites to help escape antibody binding.

Advances in nanobiosensors during the COVID-19 pandemic and future perspectives for the post-COVID era

The unprecedented threat of the highly contagious virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes exponentially increased infections of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), highlights the weak spots of the current diagnostic toolbox. In the midst of catastrophe, nanobiosensors offer a new opportunity as an alternative tool to fill a gap among molecular tests, rapid antigen tests, and serological tests. Nanobiosensors surpass the potential of antigen tests because of their enhanced sensitivity, thus enabling us to see antigens as stable and easy-to-access targets. During the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial number of studies have reported nanobiosensors for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigens. The number of articles on nanobiosensors and SARS-CoV-2 exceeds the amount of nanobiosensor research on detecting previous infectious diseases, from influenza to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. This unprecedented publishing pace also implies the significance of SARS-CoV-2 and the present pandemic. In this review, 158 studies reporting nanobiosensors for detecting SARS-CoV-2 antigens are collected to discuss the current challenges of nanobiosensors using the criteria of point-of-care (POC) diagnostics along with COVID-specific issues. These advances and lessons during the pandemic pave the way for preparing for the post-COVID era and potential upcoming infectious diseases.

SARS-CoV-2 variants with NSP12 P323L/G671S mutations display enhanced virus replication in ferret upper airways and higher transmissibility

With the emergence of multiple predominant SARS-CoV-2 variants, it becomes important to have a comprehensive assessment of their viral fitness and transmissibility. Here, we demonstrate that natural temperature differences between the upper (33°C) and lower (37°C) respiratory tract have profound effects on SARS-CoV-2 replication and transmissibility. Specifically, SARS-CoV-2 variants containing the NSP12 mutations P323L or P323L/G671S exhibit enhanced RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) activity at 33°C compared with 37°C and high transmissibility. Molecular dynamics simulations and microscale thermophoresis demonstrate that the NSP12 P323L and P323L/G671S mutations stabilize the NSP12-NSP7-NSP8 complex through hydrophobic effects, leading to increased viral RdRp activity. Furthermore, competitive transmissibility assay reveals that reverse genetic (RG)-P323L or RG-P323L/G671S NSP12 outcompetes RG-WT (wild-type) NSP12 for replication in the upper respiratory tract, allowing markedly rapid transmissibility. This suggests that NSP12 P323L or P323L/G671S mutation of SARS-CoV-2 is associated with increased RdRp complex stability and enzymatic activity, promoting efficient transmissibility.

Genetic diversification patterns in swine influenza A virus (H1N2) in vaccinated and nonvaccinated animals

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are characterized by having a segmented genome, low proofreading polymerases, and a wide host range. Consequently, IAVs are constantly evolving in nature causing a threat to animal and human health. In 2009 a new human pandemic IAV strain arose in Mexico because of a reassortment between two strains previously circulating in pigs; Eurasian "avian-like" (EA) swine H1N1 and "human-like" H1N2, highlighting the importance of swine as adaptation host of avian to human IAVs. Nowadays, although of limited use, a trivalent vaccine, which include in its formulation H1N1, H3N2, and, H1N2 swine IAV (SIAV) subtypes, is one of the most applied strategies to reduce SIAV circulation in farms. Protection provided by vaccines is not complete, allowing virus circulation, potentially favoring viral evolution. The evolutionary dynamics of SIAV quasispecies were studied in samples collected at different times from 8 vaccinated and 8 nonvaccinated pigs, challenged with H1N2 SIAV. In total, 32 SIAV genomes were sequenced by next-generation sequencing, and subsequent variant-calling genomic analysis was carried out. Herein, a total of 364 de novo single nucleotide variants (SNV) were found along all genetic segments in both experimental groups. The nonsynonymous substitutions proportion found was greater in vaccinated animals suggesting that H1N2 SIAV was under positive selection in this scenario. The impact of each substitution with an allele frequency greater than 5% was hypothesized according to previous literature, particularly in the surface glycoproteins hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. The H1N2 SIAV quasispecies evolution capacity was evidenced, observing different evolutionary trends in vaccinated and nonvaccinated animals.

Spike protein mutations and structural insights of pangolin lineage B.1.1.25 with implications for viral pathogenicity and ACE2 binding affinity

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID -19, is constantly evolving, requiring continuous genomic surveillance. In this study, we used whole-genome sequencing to investigate the genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh, with particular emphasis on identifying dominant variants and associated mutations. We used high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) to obtain DNA sequences from COVID-19 patient samples and compared these sequences to the Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 reference genome using the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). Our phylogenetic and mutational analyzes revealed that the majority (88%) of the samples belonged to the pangolin lineage B.1.1.25, whereas the remaining 11% were assigned to the parental lineage B.1.1. Two main mutations, D614G and P681R, were identified in the spike protein sequences of the samples. The D614G mutation, which is the most common, decreases S1 domain flexibility, whereas the P681R mutation may increase the severity of viral infections by increasing the binding affinity between the spike protein and the ACE2 receptor. We employed molecular modeling techniques, including protein modeling, molecular docking, and quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) geometry optimization, to build and validate three-dimensional models of the S_D614G-ACE2 and S_P681R-ACE2 complexes from the predominant strains. The description of the binding mode and intermolecular contacts of the referenced systems suggests that the P681R mutation may be associated with increased viral pathogenicity in Bangladeshi patients due to enhanced electrostatic interactions between the mutant spike protein and the human ACE2 receptor, underscoring the importance of continuous genomic surveillance in the fight against COVID -19. Finally, the binding profile of the S_D614G-ACE2 and S_P681R-ACE2 complexes offer valuable insights to deeply understand the binding site characteristics that could help to develop antiviral therapeutics that inhibit protein-protein interactions between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and human ACE2 receptor.

Khosta: A Genetic and Structural Point of View of the Forgotten Virus

Bats are well-known to be natural reservoirs of various zoonotic coronaviruses, which have caused outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2002 and 2019, respectively. In late 2020, two new Sarbecoviruses were found in Russia, isolated in Rhinolophus bats, i.e., Khosta-1 in R. ferrumequinum and Khosta-2 in R. hipposideros. The potential danger associated with these new species of Sarbecovirus is that Khosta-2 has been found to interact with the same entry receptor as SARS-CoV-2. Our multidisciplinary approach in this study demonstrates that Khosta-1 and -2 currently appear to be not dangerous with low risk of spillover, as confirmed by prevalence data and by phylogenomic reconstruction. In addition, the interaction between Khosta-1 and -2 with ACE2 appears weak, and furin cleavage sites are absent. While the possibility of a spillover event cannot be entirely excluded, it is currently highly unlikely. This research further emphasizes the importance of assessing the zoonotic potential of widely distributed batborne CoV in order to monitor changes in genomic composition of viruses and prevent spillover events (if any).

Natural selection differences detected in key protein domains between non-pathogenic and pathogenic feline coronavirus phenotypes

Feline coronaviruses (FCoVs) commonly cause mild enteric infections in felines worldwide (termed feline enteric coronavirus [FECV]), with around 12 per cent developing into deadly feline infectious peritonitis (FIP; feline infectious peritonitis virus [FIPV]). Genomic differences between FECV and FIPV have been reported, yet the putative genotypic basis of the highly pathogenic phenotype remains unclear. Here, we used state-of-the-art molecular evolutionary genetic statistical techniques to identify and compare differences in natural selection pressure between FECV and FIPV sequences, as well as to identify FIPV- and FECV-specific signals of positive selection. We analyzed full-length FCoV protein coding genes thought to contain mutations associated with FIPV (Spike, ORF3abc, and ORF7ab). We identified two sites exhibiting differences in natural selection pressure between FECV and FIPV: one within the S1/S2 furin cleavage site (FCS) and the other within the fusion domain of Spike. We also found fifteen sites subject to positive selection associated with FIPV within Spike, eleven of which have not previously been suggested as possibly relevant to FIP development. These sites fall within Spike protein subdomains that participate in host cell receptor interaction, immune evasion, tropism shifts, host cellular entry, and viral escape. There were fourteen sites (twelve novel sites) within Spike under positive selection associated with the FECV phenotype, almost exclusively within the S1/S2 FCS and adjacent to C domain, along with a signal of relaxed selection in FIPV relative to FECV, suggesting that furin cleavage functionality may not be needed for FIPV. Positive selection inferred in ORF7b was associated with the FECV phenotype and included twenty-four positively selected sites, while ORF7b had signals of relaxed selection in FIPV. We found evidence of positive selection in ORF3c in FCoV-wide analyses, but no specific association with the FIPV or FECV phenotype. We hypothesize that some combination of mutations in FECV may contribute to FIP development, and that it is unlikely to be one singular 'switch' mutational event. This work expands our understanding of the complexities of FIP development and provides insights into how evolutionary forces may alter pathogenesis in coronavirus genomes.

Vaccination against swine influenza in pigs causes different drift evolutionary patterns upon swine influenza virus experimental infection and reduces the likelihood of genomic reassortments

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) can infect a wide variety of bird and mammal species. Their genome is characterized by 8 RNA single stranded segments. The low proofreading activity of their polymerases and the genomic reassortment between different IAVs subtypes allow them to continuously evolve, constituting a constant threat to human and animal health. In 2009, a pandemic of an IAV highlighted the importance of the swine host in IAVs adaptation between humans and birds. The swine population and the incidence of swine IAV is constantly growing. In previous studies, despite vaccination, swine IAV growth and evolution were proven in vaccinated and challenged animals. However, how vaccination can drive the evolutionary dynamics of swine IAV after coinfection with two subtypes is poorly studied. In the present study, vaccinated and nonvaccinated pigs were challenged by direct contact with H1N1 and H3N2 independent swine IAVs seeder pigs. Nasal swab samples were daily recovered and broncho-alveolar lavage fluid (BALF) was also collected at necropsy day from each pig for swine IAV detection and whole genome sequencing. In total, 39 swine IAV whole genome sequences were obtained by next generation sequencing from samples collected from both experimental groups. Subsequently, genomic, and evolutionary analyses were carried out to detect both, genomic reassortments and single nucleotide variants (SNV). Regarding the segments found per sample, the simultaneous presence of segments from both subtypes was much lower in vaccinated animals, indicating that the vaccine reduced the likelihood of genomic reassortment events. In relation to swine IAV intra-host diversity, a total of 239 and 74 SNV were detected within H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes, respectively. Different proportions of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions were found, indicating that vaccine may be influencing the main mechanism that shape swine IAV evolution, detecting natural, neutral, and purifying selection in the different analyzed scenarios. SNV were detected along the whole swine IAV genome with important nonsynonymous substitutions on polymerases, surface glycoproteins and nonstructural proteins, which may have an impact on virus replication, immune system escaping and virulence of virus, respectively. The present study further emphasized the vast evolutionary capacity of swine IAV, under natural infection and vaccination pressure scenarios.

Host–Pathogen Interactions Influencing Zoonotic Spillover Potential and Transmission in Humans

Emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin are an ever-increasing public health risk and economic burden. The factors that determine if and when an animal virus is able to spill over into the human population with sufficient success to achieve ongoing transmission in humans are complex and dynamic. We are currently unable to fully predict which pathogens may appear in humans, where and with what impact. In this review, we highlight current knowledge of the key host–pathogen interactions known to influence zoonotic spillover potential and transmission in humans, with a particular focus on two important human viruses of zoonotic origin, the Nipah virus and the Ebola virus. Namely, key factors determining spillover potential include cellular and tissue tropism, as well as the virulence and pathogenic characteristics of the pathogen and the capacity of the pathogen to adapt and evolve within a novel host environment. We also detail our emerging understanding of the importance of steric hindrance of host cell factors by viral proteins using a “flytrap”-type mechanism of protein amyloidogenesis that could be crucial in developing future antiviral therapies against emerging pathogens. Finally, we discuss strategies to prepare for and to reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover occurrences in order to minimize the risk of new outbreaks.

Nucleotide and codon usage biases involved in the evolution of African swine fever virus: A comparative genomics analysis

Since African swine fever virus (ASFV) replication is closely related to its host's machinery, codon usage of viral genome can be subject to selection pressures. A better understanding of codon usage can give new insights into viral evolution. We implemented information entropy and revealed that the nucleotide usage pattern of ASFV is significantly associated with viral isolation factors (region and time), especially the usages of thymine and cytosine. Despite the domination of adenine and thymine in the viral genome, we found that mutation pressure alters the overall codon usage pattern of ASFV, followed by selective forces from natural selection. Moreover, the nucleotide skew index at the gene level indicates that nucleotide usages influencing synonymous codon bias of ASFV are significantly correlated with viral protein hydropathy. Finally, evolutionary plasticity is proved to contribute to the weakness in synonymous codons with A- or T-end serving as optimal codons of ASFV, suggesting that fine-tuning translation selection plays a role in synonymous codon usages of ASFV for adapting host. Taken together, ASFV is subject to evolutionary dynamics on nucleotide selections and synonymous codon usage, and our detailed analysis offers deeper insights into the genetic characteristics of this newly emerging virus around the world.

Structural patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (alpha, beta, gamma, delta) spike protein are influenced by variant-specific amino acid mutations: A computational study with implications on viral evolution

SARS-CoV-2 (SARS2) regularly mutates resulting to variants of concern (VOC) which have higher virulence and transmissibility rates while concurrently evading available therapeutic strategies. This highlights the importance of amino acid mutations occurring in the SARS2 spike protein structure since it may affect virus biology. However, this was never fully elucidated. Here, network analysis was performed based on the COVID-19 genomic epidemiology network between December 2019-July 2021. Representative SARS2 VOC spike protein models were generated and quality checked, protein model superimposition was done, and common contact based on contact mapping was established. Throughout this study, we found that: (1) certain individual variant-specific amino acid mutations can affect the spike protein structural pattern; (2) certain individual variant-specific amino acid mutations had no affect on the spike protein structural pattern; and (3) certain combination of variant-specific amino acids are putatively epistatic mutations that can potentially influence the VOC spike protein structural pattern. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Natural selection differences detected in key protein domains between non-pathogenic and pathogenic Feline Coronavirus phenotypes

Feline Coronaviruses (FCoVs) commonly cause mild enteric infections in felines worldwide (termed Feline Enteric Coronavirus [FECV]), with around 12% developing into deadly Feline Infectious Peritonitis (FIP; Feline Infectious Peritonitis Virus [FIPV]). Genomic differences between FECV and FIPV have been reported, yet the putative genotypic basis of the highly pathogenic phenotype remains unclear. Here, we used state-of-the-art molecular evolutionary genetic statistical techniques to identify and compare differences in natural selection pressure between FECV and FIPV sequences, as well as to identify FIPV and FECV specific signals of positive selection. We analyzed full length FCoV protein coding genes thought to contain mutations associated with FIPV (Spike, ORF3abc, and ORF7ab). We identified two sites exhibiting differences in natural selection pressure between FECV and FIPV: one within the S1/S2 furin cleavage site, and the other within the fusion domain of Spike. We also found 15 sites subject to positive selection associated with FIPV within Spike, 11 of which have not previously been suggested as possibly relevant to FIP development. These sites fall within Spike protein subdomains that participate in host cell receptor interaction, immune evasion, tropism shifts, host cellular entry, and viral escape. There were 14 sites (12 novel) within Spike under positive selection associated with the FECV phenotype, almost exclusively within the S1/S2 furin cleavage site and adjacent C domain, along with a signal of relaxed selection in FIPV relative to FECV, suggesting that furin cleavage functionality may not be needed for FIPV. Positive selection inferred in ORF7b was associated with the FECV phenotype, and included 24 positively selected sites, while ORF7b had signals of relaxed selection in FIPV. We found evidence of positive selection in ORF3c in FCoV wide analyses, but no specific association with the FIPV or FECV phenotype. We hypothesize that some combination of mutations in FECV may contribute to FIP development, and that is unlikely to be one singular "switch" mutational event. This work expands our understanding of the complexities of FIP development and provides insights into how evolutionary forces may alter pathogenesis in coronavirus genomes.

Cellular APOBEC3A deaminase drives mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome

The number of genetic variations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been increasing primarily due to continuous viral mutations. Here, we report that the human APOBEC3A (A3A) cytidine deaminase plays a critical role in the induction of C-to-U substitutions in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Bioinformatic analysis of the chronological genetic changes in a sequence database indicated that the largest UC-to-UU mutation signature, consistent with APOBEC-recognized nucleotide motifs, was predominant in single-stranded RNA regions of the viral genome. In SARS-CoV-2-infected cells, exogenous expression of A3A but not expression of other APOBEC proteins induced UC-to-UU mutations in viral RNA (vRNA). Additionally, the mutated C bases were often located at the tips in bulge or loop regions in the vRNA secondary structure. Interestingly, A3A mRNA expression was drastically increased by interferons (IFNs) and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) in epithelial cells derived from the respiratory system, a site of efficient SARS-CoV-2 replication. Moreover, the UC-to-UU mutation rate was increased in SARS-CoV-2 produced from lung epithelial cells treated with IFN-ß and TNF-α, but not from CRISPR/Cas9-based A3A knockout cells. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that A3A is a primary host factor that drives mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome via RNA editing.

High-Throughput Molecular Dynamics-Based Alchemical Free Energy Calculations for Predicting the Binding Free Energy Change Associated with the Selected Omicron Mutations in the Spike Receptor-Binding Domain of SARS-CoV-2

The ongoing pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has gone through various phases. Since the initial outbreak, the virus has mutated several times, with some lineages showing even stronger infectivity and faster spread than the original virus. Among all the variants, omicron is currently classified as a variant of concern (VOC) by the World Health Organization, as the previously circulating variants have been replaced by it. In this work, we have focused on the mutations observed in omicron sub lineages BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5, particularly at the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein that is responsible for the interactions with the host ACE2 receptor and binding of antibodies. Studying such mutations is particularly important for understanding the viral infectivity, spread of the disease and for tracking the escape routes of this virus from antibodies. Molecular dynamics (MD) based alchemical free energy calculations have been shown to be very accurate in predicting the free energy change, due to a mutation that could have a deleterious or a stabilizing effect on either the protein itself or its binding affinity to another protein. Here, we investigated the significance of five spike RBD mutations on the stability of the spike protein binding to ACE2 by free energy calculations using high throughput MD simulations. For comparison, we also used conventional MD simulations combined with a Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) based approach, and compared our results with the available experimental data. Overall, the alchemical free energy calculations performed far better than the MM-GBSA approach in predicting the individual impact of the mutations. When considering the experimental variation, the alchemical free energy method was able to produce a relatively accurate prediction for N501Y, the mutant that has previously been reported to increase the binding affinity to hACE2. On the other hand, the other individual mutations seem not to have a significant effect on the spike RBD binding affinity towards hACE2.

Mandrake: visualizing microbial population structure by embedding millions of genomes into a low-dimensional representation

In less than a decade, population genomics of microbes has progressed from the effort of sequencing dozens of strains to thousands, or even tens of thousands of strains in a single study. There are now hundreds of thousands of genomes available even for a single bacterial species, and the number of genomes is expected to continue to increase at an accelerated pace given the advances in sequencing technology and widespread genomic surveillance initiatives. This explosion of data calls for innovative methods to enable rapid exploration of the structure of a population based on different data modalities, such as multiple sequence alignments, assemblies and estimates of gene content across different genomes. Here, we present Mandrake, an efficient implementation of a dimensional reduction method tailored for the needs of large-scale population genomics. Mandrake is capable of visualizing population structure from millions of whole genomes, and we illustrate its usefulness with several datasets representing major pathogens. Our method is freely available both as an analysis pipeline (https://github.com/johnlees/mandrake) and as a browser-based interactive application (https://gtonkinhill.github.io/mandrake-web/).

This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Genomic population structures of microbial pathogens’.

Characterizing viral within-host diversity in fast and non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics

High-throughput sequencing has opened the route for a deep assessment of within-host genetic diversity that can be used, e.g., to characterize microbial communities and to infer transmission links in infectious disease outbreaks. The performance of such characterizations and inferences cannot be analytically assessed in general and are often grounded on computer-intensive evaluations. Then, being able to simulate within-host genetic diversity across time under various demo-genetic assumptions is paramount to assess the performance of the approaches of interest. In this context, we built an original model that can be simulated to investigate the temporal evolution of genotypes and their frequencies under various demo-genetic assumptions. The model describes the growth and the mutation of genotypes at the nucleotide resolution conditional on an overall within-host viral kinetics, and can be tuned to generate fast non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics. We ran simulations of this model and computed classic diversity indices to characterize the temporal variation of within-host genetic diversity (from high-throughput amplicon sequences) of virus populations under three demographic kinetic models of viral infection. Our results highlight how demographic (viral load) and genetic (mutation, selection, or drift) factors drive variations in within-host diversity during the course of an infection. In particular, we observed a non-monotonic relationship between pathogen population size and genetic diversity, and a reduction of the impact of mutation on diversity when a non-specific host immune response is activated. The large variation in the diversity patterns generated in our simulations suggests that the underlying model provides a flexible basis to produce very diverse demo-genetic scenarios and test, for instance, methods for the inference of transmission links during outbreaks.

SARS-CoV-2 variants show temperature-dependent enhanced polymerase activity in the upper respiratory tract and high transmissibility

With the convergent global emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC), a precise comparison study of viral fitness and transmission characteristics is necessary for the prediction of dominant VOCs and the development of suitable countermeasures. While airway temperature plays important roles in the fitness and transmissibility of respiratory tract viruses, it has not been well studied with SARS-CoV-2. Here we demonstrate that natural temperature differences between the upper (33°C) and lower (37°C) respiratory tract have profound effects on SARS-CoV-2 replication and transmission. Specifically, SARS-COV-2 variants containing the P323L or P323L/G671S mutation in the NSP12 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) exhibited enhanced RdRp enzymatic activity at 33°C compared to 37°C and high transmissibility in ferrets. MicroScale Thermophoresis demonstrated that the NSP12 P323L or P323L/G671S mutation stabilized the NSP12-NSP7-NSP8 complex interaction. Furthermore, reverse genetics-derived SARS-CoV-2 variants containing the NSP12 P323L or P323L/G671S mutation displayed enhanced replication at 33°C, and high transmission in ferrets. This suggests that the evolutionarily forced NSP12 P323L and P323L/G671S mutations of recent SARS-CoV-2 VOC strains are associated with increases of the RdRp complex stability and enzymatic activity, promoting the high transmissibility.

The SARS-CoV-2 Variants and their Impacts

Since the first detection of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus remains a public health concern. Several public health measures have been implemented in an effort to curb the infections. However, the effectiveness of these strategies was threatened with the emergence of numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants in all parts of the globe, due to the persistent mutations as part of the viral evolution. Mutations that usually occur in its spike glycoprotein, allow SARS-CoV-2 to possess advantageous characteristics for its survivability and persistence. This has led to poor performance of diagnostic kits which have caused non-specific and insensitive detection of these variants, resulting in undetermined infection. The variants also have caused the increased severity of COVID-19, involving hospitalisation rates, ICU admissions, and deaths. Many have reported the vaccine-breakthrough infections and reduced effectiveness of vaccination, which is supposed to provide an effective degree of protection against COVID-19 infections. Due to these issues, this review summarises the impacts related to SARS-CoV-2 variants emergence towards the performance of diagnostic kits, transmissibility of the virus, severity of disease, and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.

Immune Escape Associated with RBD Omicron Mutations and SARS-CoV-2 Evolution Dynamics

The evolution and the emergence of new mutations of viruses affect their transmissibility and/or pathogenicity features, depending on different evolutionary scenarios of virus adaptation to the host. A typical trade-off scenario of SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been proposed, which leads to the appearance of an Omicron strain with lowered lethality, yet enhanced transmissibility. This direction of evolution might be partly explained by virus adaptation to therapeutic agents and enhanced escape from vaccine-induced and natural immunity formed by other SARS-CoV-2 strains. Omicron's high mutation rate in the Spike protein, as well as its previously described high genome mutation rate (Kandeel et al., 2021), revealed a gap between it and other SARS-CoV-2 strains, indicating the absence of a transitional evolutionary form to the Omicron strain. Therefore, Omicron has emerged as a new serotype divergent from the evolutionary lineage of other SARS-CoV-2 strains. Omicron is a rapidly evolving variant of high concern, whose new subvariants continue to manifest. Its further understanding and the further monitoring of key mutations that provide virus immune escape and/or high affinity towards the receptor could be useful for vaccine and therapeutic development in order to control the evolutionary direction of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.

COVID-19 vaccines in patients with cancer: immunogenicity, efficacy and safety

Patients with cancer have a higher risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and associated mortality than the general population. Owing to this increased risk, patients with cancer have been prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination globally, for both primary and booster vaccinations. However, given that these patients were not included in the pivotal clinical trials, considerable uncertainty remains regarding vaccine efficacy, and the extent of humoral and cellular immune responses in these patients, as well as the risks of vaccine-related adverse events. In this Review, we summarize the current knowledge generated in studies conducted since COVID-19 vaccines first became available. We also highlight critical points that might affect vaccine efficacy in patients with cancer in the future.

Host and geographic barriers shape the competition, coexistence, and extinction patterns of influenza A (H1N1) viruses

The influenza virus mutates and spreads rapidly, making it suitable for studying evolutionary and ecological processes. The ecological factors and processes by which different lineages of influenza compete or coexist within hosts through time and across geographical space are poorly known. We hypothesized that competition would be stronger for influenza viruses infecting the same host compared to different hosts (the Host Barrier Hypothesis), and for those with a higher cross-region transmission intensity (the Geographic Barrier Hypothesis). Using available sequences of the influenza A (H1N1) virus in GenBank, we identified six lineages, twelve clades, and several replacement events. We found that human-hosted lineages had a higher cross-region transmission intensity than swine-hosted lineages. Co-occurrence probabilities of lineages infecting the same host were lower than those infecting different hosts, and human-hosted lineages had lower co-occurrence probabilities and genetic diversity than swine-hosted lineages. These results show that H1N1 lineages infecting the same host or with high cross-region transmission rates experienced stronger competition and extinction pressures than those infecting different hosts or with low cross-region transmission. Our study highlights how host and geographic barriers shape the competition, extinction, and coexistence patterns of H1N1 lineages and clades.

SARS-CoV-2: vaccinology and emerging therapeutics; challenges and future developments

As SARS-CoV-2 emerge, variants such as Omicron (B.1.1.529), Delta (B.1.617.2), and those from the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351), Brazil (P.1) and India (B.1.6.17 lineage) have raised concerns of the reduced neutralising ability of antibodies and increased ability to evade the current six approved COVID-19 vaccine candidates. This viewpoint advocates for countries to conduct prior efficacy studies before they embark on mass vaccination and addresses the role of nanoparticles as carrier vehicles for these vaccines with a view to explore the present challenges and forge a path for a stronger and more viable future for the development of vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemics. We also look at the emerging prophylactics and therapeutics in the light of ongoing cases of severe and critical COVID-19.

The adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to humans

The process of adaptation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to humans probably had started decades ago, when its ancestor diverged from the bat coronavirus. The adaptive process comprises strategies the virus uses to overcome the respiratory tract defense barriers and replicate and shed in the host cells. These strategies include the impairment of interferon production, hiding immunogenic motifs, avoiding viral RNA detection, manipulating cell autophagy, triggering host cell death, inducing lymphocyte exhaustion and depletion, and finally, mutation and escape from immunity. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 employs strategies to take advantage of host cell resources for its benefits, such as inhibiting the ubiquitin-proteasome system, hijacking mitochondria functions, and usage of enhancing antibodies. It may be anticipated that as the tradeoffs of adaptation progress, the virus destructive burden will gradually subside. Some evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 will become part of the human respiratory virome, as had occurred with other coronaviruses, and coevolve with its host.

The Development of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: The Gene Makes the Disease

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged towards the end of 2019 that caused a severe respiratory disease in humans called COVID-19. It led to a pandemic with a high rate of morbidity and mortality that is ongoing and threatening humankind. Most of the mutations occurring in SARS-CoV-2 are synonymous or deleterious, but a few of them produce improved viral functions. The first known mutation associated with higher transmissibility, D614G, was detected in early 2020. Since then, the virus has evolved; new mutations have occurred, and many variants have been described. Depending on the genes affected and the location of the mutations, they could provide altered infectivity, transmissibility, or immune escape. To date, mutations that cause variations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein have been among the most studied because of the protein's role in the initial virus-cell contact and because it is the most variable region in the virus genome. Some concerning mutations associated with an impact on viral fitness have been described in the Spike protein, such as D614G, N501Y, E484K, K417N/T, L452R, and P681R, among others. To understand the impact of the infectivity and antigenicity of the virus, the mutation landscape of SARS-CoV-2 has been under constant global scrutiny. The virus variants are defined according to their origin, their genetic profile (some characteristic mutations prevalent in the lineage), and the severity of the disease they produce, which determines the level of concern. If they increase fitness, new variants can outcompete others in the population. The Alpha variant was more transmissible than previous versions and quickly spread globally. The Beta and Gamma variants accumulated mutations that partially escape the immune defenses and affect the effectiveness of vaccines. Nowadays, the Delta variant, identified around March 2021, has spread and displaced the other variants, becoming the most concerning of all lineages that have emerged. The Delta variant has a particular genetic profile, bearing unique mutations, such as T478K in the spike protein and M203R in the nucleocapsid. This review summarizes the current knowledge of the different mutations that have appeared in SARS-CoV-2, mainly on the spike protein. It analyzes their impact on the protein function and, subsequently, on the level of concern of different variants and their importance in the ongoing pandemic.

VLP-Based COVID-19 Vaccines: An Adaptable Technology against the Threat of New Variants

Virus-like particles (VLPs) are a versatile, safe, and highly immunogenic vaccine platform. Recently, there are developmental vaccines targeting SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic affected humanity worldwide, bringing out incomputable human and financial losses. The race for better, more efficacious vaccines is happening almost simultaneously as the virus increasingly produces variants of concern (VOCs). The VOCs Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta share common mutations mainly in the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), demonstrating convergent evolution, associated with increased transmissibility and immune evasion. Thus, the identification and understanding of these mutations is crucial for the production of new, optimized vaccines. The use of a very flexible vaccine platform in COVID-19 vaccine development is an important feature that cannot be ignored. Incorporating the spike protein and its variations into VLP vaccines is a desirable strategy as the morphology and size of VLPs allows for better presentation of several different antigens. Furthermore, VLPs elicit robust humoral and cellular immune responses, which are safe, and have been studied not only against SARS-CoV-2 but against other coronaviruses as well. Here, we describe the recent advances and improvements in vaccine development using VLP technology.

Molecular epidemiology of peste des petits ruminants virus emergence in critically endangered Mongolian saiga antelope and other wild ungulates

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes disease in domestic and wild ungulates, is the target of a Global Eradication Programme, and threatens biodiversity. Understanding the epidemiology and evolution of PPRV in wildlife is important but hampered by the paucity of wildlife-origin PPRV genomes. In this study, full PPRV genomes were generated from three Mongolian saiga antelope, one Siberian ibex, and one goitered gazelle from the 2016-2017 PPRV outbreak. Phylogenetic analysis showed that for Mongolian and Chinese PPRV since 2013, the wildlife and livestock-origin genomes were closely related and interspersed. There was strong phylogenetic support for a monophyletic group of PPRV from Mongolian wildlife and livestock, belonging to a clade of lineage IV PPRV from livestock and wildlife from China since 2013. Discrete diffusion analysis found strong support for PPRV spread into Mongolia from China, and phylogeographic analysis indicated Xinjiang Province as the most likely origin, although genomic surveillance for PPRV is poor and lack of sampling from other regions could bias this result. Times of most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) were June 2015 (95 per cent highest posterior density (HPD): August 2014 to March 2016) for all Mongolian PPRV genomes and May 2016 (95 per cent HPD: October 2015 to October 2016) for Mongolian wildlife-origin PPRV. This suggests that PPRV was circulating undetected in Mongolia for at least 6 months before the first reported outbreak in August 2016 and that wildlife were likely infected before livestock vaccination began in October 2016. Finally, genetic variation and positively selected sites were identified that might be related to PPRV emergence in Mongolian wildlife. This study is the first to sequence multiple PPRV genomes from a wildlife outbreak, across several host species. Additional full PPRV genomes and associated metadata from the livestock-wildlife interface are needed to enhance the power of molecular epidemiology, support PPRV eradication, and safeguard the health of the whole ungulate community.

Structural Insights on the SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern Spike Glycoprotein: A Computational Study With Possible Clinical Implications

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been attributed to SARS-CoV-2 (SARS2) and, consequently, SARS2 has evolved into multiple SARS2 variants driving subsequent waves of infections. In particular, variants of concern (VOC) were identified to have both increased transmissibility and virulence ascribable to mutational changes occurring within the spike protein resulting to modifications in the protein structural orientation which in-turn may affect viral pathogenesis. However, this was never fully elucidated. Here, we generated spike models of endemic HCoVs (HCoV 229E, HCoV OC43, HCoV NL63, HCoV HKU1, SARS CoV, MERS CoV), original SARS2, and VOC (alpha, beta, gamma, delta). Model quality check, structural superimposition, and structural comparison based on RMSD values, TM scores, and contact mapping were all performed. We found that: 1) structural comparison between the original SARS2 and VOC whole spike protein model have minor structural differences (TM > 0.98); 2) the whole VOC spike models putatively have higher structural similarity (TM > 0.70) to spike models from endemic HCoVs coming from the same phylogenetic cluster; 3) original SARS2 S1-CTD and S1-NTD models are structurally comparable to VOC S1-CTD (TM = 1.0) and S1-NTD (TM > 0.96); and 4) endemic HCoV S1-CTD and S1-NTD models are structurally comparable to VOC S1-CTD (TM > 0.70) and S1-NTD (TM > 0.70) models belonging to the same phylogenetic cluster. Overall, we propose that structural similarities (possibly ascribable to similar conformational epitopes) may help determine immune cross-reactivity, whereas, structural differences (possibly associated with varying conformational epitopes) may lead to viral infection (either reinfection or breakthrough infection).

SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape

Although most mutations in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome are expected to be either deleterious and swiftly purged or relatively neutral, a small proportion will affect functional properties and may alter infectivity, disease severity or interactions with host immunity. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 was followed by a period of relative evolutionary stasis lasting about 11 months. Since late 2020, however, SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been characterized by the emergence of sets of mutations, in the context of 'variants of concern', that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity, probably in response to the changing immune profile of the human population. There is emerging evidence of reduced neutralization of some SARS-CoV-2 variants by postvaccination serum; however, a greater understanding of correlates of protection is required to evaluate how this may impact vaccine effectiveness. Nonetheless, manufacturers are preparing platforms for a possible update of vaccine sequences, and it is crucial that surveillance of genetic and antigenic changes in the global virus population is done alongside experiments to elucidate the phenotypic impacts of mutations. In this Review, we summarize the literature on mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the primary antigen, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets.

SARS-CoV-2 variants, spike mutations and immune escape

Although most mutations in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome are expected to be either deleterious and swiftly purged or relatively neutral, a small proportion will affect functional properties and may alter infectivity, disease severity or interactions with host immunity. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 was followed by a period of relative evolutionary stasis lasting about 11 months. Since late 2020, however, SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been characterized by the emergence of sets of mutations, in the context of 'variants of concern', that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity, probably in response to the changing immune profile of the human population. There is emerging evidence of reduced neutralization of some SARS-CoV-2 variants by postvaccination serum; however, a greater understanding of correlates of protection is required to evaluate how this may impact vaccine effectiveness. Nonetheless, manufacturers are preparing platforms for a possible update of vaccine sequences, and it is crucial that surveillance of genetic and antigenic changes in the global virus population is done alongside experiments to elucidate the phenotypic impacts of mutations. In this Review, we summarize the literature on mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the primary antigen, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets.

Identifying Potentially Beneficial Genetic Mutations Associated with Monophyletic Selective Sweep and a Proof-of-Concept Study with Viral Genetic Data

Genetic mutations play a central role in evolution. For a significantly beneficial mutation, a one-time mutation event suffices for the species to prosper and predominate through the process called “monophyletic selective sweep.” However, existing methods that rely on counting the number of mutation events to detect selection are unable to find such a mutation in selective sweep. We here introduce a method to detect mutations at the single amino acid/nucleotide level that could be responsible for monophyletic selective sweep evolution. The method identifies a genetic signature associated with selective sweep using the population genetic test statistic Tajima’s D. We applied the algorithm to ebolavirus, influenza A virus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 to identify known biologically significant mutations and unrecognized mutations associated with potential selective sweep. The method can detect beneficial mutations, possibly leading to discovery of previously unknown biological functions and mechanisms related to those mutations.

IMPORTANCE In biology, research on evolution is important to understand the significance of genetic mutation. When there is a significantly beneficial mutation, a population of species with the mutation prospers and predominates, in a process called “selective sweep.” However, there are few methods that can find such a mutation causing selective sweep from genetic data. We here introduce a novel method to detect such mutations. Applying the method to the genomes of ebolavirus, influenza viruses, and the novel coronavirus, we detected known biologically significant mutations and identified mutations the importance of which is previously unrecognized. The method can deepen our understanding of molecular and evolutionary biology.

Differing impacts of global and regional responses on SARS-CoV-2 transmission cluster dynamics

Although the global response to COVID-19 has not been entirely unified, the opportunity arises to assess the impact of regional public health interventions and to classify strategies according to their outcome. Analysis of genetic sequence data gathered over the course of the pandemic allows us to link the dynamics associated with networks of connected individuals with specific interventions. In this study, clusters of transmission were inferred from a phylogenetic tree representing the relationships of patient sequences sampled from December 30, 2019 to April 17, 2020. Metadata comprising sampling time and location were used to define the global behavior of transmission over this earlier sampling period, but also the involvement of individual regions in transmission cluster dynamics. Results demonstrate a positive impact of international travel restrictions and nationwide lockdowns on global cluster dynamics. However, residual, localized clusters displayed a wide range of estimated initial secondary infection rates, for which uniform public health interventions are unlikely to have sustainable effects. Our findings highlight the presence of so-called "super-spreaders", with the propensity to infect a larger-than-average number of people, in countries, such as the USA, for which additional mitigation efforts targeting events surrounding this type of spread are urgently needed to curb further dissemination of SARS-CoV-2.

Parallel evolution in the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses

Parallel molecular evolution and adaptation are important phenomena commonly observed in viruses. Here, we exploit parallel molecular evolution to understand virulence evolution in avian influenza viruses (AIV). Highly-pathogenic AIVs evolve independently from low-pathogenic ancestors via acquisition of polybasic cleavage sites. Why some AIV lineages but not others evolve in this way is unknown. We hypothesise that the parallel emergence of highly-pathogenic AIV may be facilitated by permissive or compensatory mutations occurring across the viral genome. We combine phylogenetic, statistical and structural approaches to discover parallel mutations in AIV genomes associated with the highly-pathogenic phenotype. Parallel mutations were screened using a statistical test of mutation-phenotype association and further evaluated in the contexts of positive selection and protein structure. Our resulting mutational panel may help to reveal new links between virulence evolution and other traits, and raises the possibility of predicting aspects of AIV evolution.

Positive Selection of ORF1ab, ORF3a, and ORF8 Genes Drives the Early Evolutionary Trends of SARS-CoV-2 During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic

In this study, we analyzed full-length SARS-CoV-2 genomes from multiple countries to determine early trends in the evolutionary dynamics of the novel COVID-19 pandemic. Results indicated SARS-CoV-2 evolved early into at least three phylogenetic groups, characterized by positive selection at specific residues of the accessory proteins ORF3a and ORF8. Also, we are reporting potential relevant sites under positive selection at specific sites of non-structural proteins nsp6 and helicase. Our analysis of co-evolution showed evidence of epistatic interactions among sites in the genome that may be important in the generation of variants adapted to humans. These observations might impact not only public health but also suggest that more studies are needed to understand the genetic mechanisms that may affect the development of therapeutic and preventive tools, like antivirals and vaccines. Collectively, our results highlight the identification of ongoing selection even in a scenario of conserved sequences collected over the first 3 months of this pandemic.

Modeling analysis revealed the distinct global transmission patterns of influenza A viruses and their influencing factors

Influenza A virus has caused huge damage to human health and poultry production worldwide, but its global transmission patterns and influencing factors remain unclear. Here, by using the Nearest Genetic Distance Approach with genetic sequences data, we reconstructed the global transmission patterns of 4 most common subtypes of influenza A virus (H1N1, H3N2, H5N1, and H7N9) and analyzed associations of transmission velocity of these influenza viruses with environmental factors. We found that the transmission patterns of influenza viruses and their associations with environmental factors were closely related to their host properties. H1N1 and H3N2, which are mainly held by humans, are transmitted between regions at high velocity and over long distances, which may be due to human transportation via airplane; while H5N1 and H7N9, which are mainly carried by animals, are transmitted locally at short distances and at low velocity, which may be facilitated by poultry transportation via railways or high ways. H1N1 and H3N2 spread faster in cold seasons, while H5N1 spread faster in both cold and warm seasons, and H7N9 spread faster in wet seasons. H1N1, H3N2, and H5N1 spread faster in places with both high and low human densities. Our study provided novel insights into the global transmission patterns, processes, and management strategies for influenza under accelerated global change.

Within-Host Viral Diversity: A Window into Viral Evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of a virus can differ within hosts and across populations. Studies of within-host evolution provide an important link between experimental studies of virus evolution and large-scale phylodynamic analyses. They can determine the extent to which global processes are recapitulated on local scales and how accurately experimental infections model natural ones. They may also inform epidemiologic models of disease spread and reveal how host-level dynamics contribute to a virus's evolution at a larger scale. Over the last decade, advances in viral sequencing have enabled detailed studies of viral genetic diversity within hosts. I review how within-host diversity is sampled, measured, and expressed, and how comparative studies of viral diversity can be leveraged to elucidate a virus's evolutionary dynamics. These concepts are illustrated with detailed reviews of recent research on the within-host evolution of influenza virus, dengue virus, and cytomegalovirus.

Prisoners of war - host adaptation and its constraints on virus evolution

Recent discoveries of contemporary genotypes of hepatitis B virus and parvovirus B19 in ancient human remains demonstrate that little genetic change has occurred in these viruses over 4,500-6,000 years. Endogenous viral elements in host genomes provide separate evidence that viruses similar to many major contemporary groups circulated 100 million years ago or earlier. In this Opinion article, we argue that the extraordinary conservation of virus genome sequences is best explained by a niche-filling model in which fitness optimization is rapidly achieved in their specific hosts. Whereas short-term substitution rates reflect the accumulation of tolerated sequence changes within adapted genomes, longer-term rates increasingly resemble those of their hosts as the evolving niche moulds and effectively imprisons the virus in co-adapted virus-host relationships. Contrastingly, viruses that jump hosts undergo strong and stringent adaptive selection as they maximize their fit to their new niche. This adaptive capability may paradoxically create evolutionary stasis in long-term host relationships. While viruses can evolve and adapt rapidly, their hosts may ultimately shape their longer-term evolution.

A novel molecular mechanism to explain mutations of the HCV protease associated with resistance against covalently bound inhibitors

NS3 is an important therapeutic target for direct-acting antiviral (DAA) drugs. However, many patients treated with DAAs have unsustained virologic response (UVR) due to the high mutation rate of HCV. The aim of this work was to shed some light on the puzzling molecular mechanisms of the virus's of patients who showed high viral loads even under treatment with DAA. Bioinformatics tools, molecular modelling analyses were employed to identify mutations associated with HCV resistance to boceprevir and possible structural features related to this phenomenon. We identified two mutations of NS3 that may be associated with HCV resistance: D168N and L153I. The substitution D168N was previously reported in the literature as related with drug failure. Additionally, we identified that its molecular resistance mechanism can be explained by the destabilization of receptor-ligand hydrogen bonds. For the L153I mutation, the resistance mechanism is different from previous models reported in the literature. The L153I substitution decreases the S139 deprotonation susceptibility, and consequently, this mutation impairs the covalent binding between the residue S139 from NS3 and the electrophilic trap on boceprevir, which can induce drug failure. These results were supported by the time course analysis of the mutations of the NS3 protease, which showed that boceprevir was designed for enzymes with an L residue at position 153; however, the sequences with I153 are predominant nowadays. The results presented here could be used to infer about resistance in others DAA, mainly protease inhibitors.