An Expert Elicitation on the Effects of a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes and Cigars in the United States

What Is (Un)Flavored? A Scoping Review of the Conceptualization of Flavored Cigarillos

INTRODUCTION

To identify how flavor is conceptualized with respect to cigarillos to illuminate areas of concordance and discordance and provide a pathway for the harmonization of tobacco flavor measurement.

AIMS AND METHODS

Three methods were used to identify research measuring flavors respective to cigarillo products including: (1) querying research databases using key words "cigarillo," "tobacco" and "flavor"/'flavour,' (2) sub-sampling of the eligible literature with backward and forward reference searching, and (3) a bibliographic search of key experts. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts. Inclusion criteria required manuscripts to be available in English, published prior to 3/1/2022, be original and peer-reviewed, and include a measure of flavor pertaining to cigarillo products. A total of 163 manuscripts met these criteria and were subsequently evaluated.

RESULTS

Cigarillo flavor determinations were made based on the presence of flavoring agents, sensory characteristics, marketing or package characteristics, pre-defined lists, the absence of any of these, and/or were undefined. Individual flavors and their related classifications were not altogether mutually exclusive due to differences in conceptualization which has evolved over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Flavor measures continue to evolve, likely in response to both tobacco control policies and industry shifts. There is a lack of standardization in flavor conceptualization that can be ameliorated through intentional integration of multiple forms of research such as identifying patterns of flavoring agents and/or marketing strategies that elicit a specific flavor profile. By doing this, we may more comprehensively evaluate the impact of flavors, their constituents, and related marketing strategies on broader population health.

IMPLICATIONS

There are discrepancies in the conceptualization of flavor in tobacco and nicotine products. The lack of standardized, definitive language limits our ability to comprehensively evaluate the population-level health impact of flavors in addition to our ability to effectively inform, implement, and enforce policies restricting flavors in tobacco and nicotine products.

Impact of Smoking Cessation Motivations and Barriers on Quit Intentions Following a Hypothetical Flavor Ban Among African American/Black Individuals Who Use Menthol Cigarettes: A Mixed-Methods Study

INTRODUCTION

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed banning cigarettes and cigars with characterizing flavors-products used disproportionately by African American/black (AA/B) individuals. Little is known about how AA/B individuals who smoke menthol cigarettes will respond to flavor bans or how to amplify the intended benefits. This study explored predictors of quit intentions following a hypothetical flavor ban and further probed anticipated ban-related responses.

AIMS AND METHODS

We recruited 213 AA/B individuals who use menthol cigarettes from Richmond, VA (September 2021-August 2022) for a mixed-methods study. Participants rated seven motivations for quitting and six barriers to quitting (Not a motivation or challenge[1]-Major motivation or challenge[4]), then reported how likely they were to quit smoking if characterizing flavors were banned in cigarettes and cigars. A subsample of 31 participants completed semi-structured interviews to further explore reactions to flavor restriction policies.

RESULTS

Multivariable linear regressions suggested that participants who were more motivated to quit smoking because of "information about health hazards" and the "cost of cigarettes" reported higher quit intentions following a hypothetical menthol ban (p < .05). Additionally, those with cessation-related weight concerns reported lower post-ban quit intentions (p < .05). Interview themes highlighted smoking for stress reduction, harm/addiction perceptions of flavored tobacco products, trusted sources of tobacco-related information (including testimonials from people who formerly smoked), potential ban responses, and varying experiences with cessation strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Culturally specific cessation strategies that emphasize the health-related benefits of quitting, particularly those featuring the experiences of people who formerly smoked, may help AA/B individuals who smoke menthol cigarettes quit following a menthol ban.

IMPLICATIONS

For the FDA's proposed bans on characterizing flavors in cigarettes and cigars to advance racial health equity, they must maximize cessation among African American/black (AA/B) individuals who use menthol cigarettes. This work suggests information on the health hazards and costs of smoking, as well as concerns over gaining weight, were predictors of quit intentions in a hypothetical flavor ban. Qualitative data suggest messaging highlighting the experiences of individuals who successfully quit may constitute an effective communication strategy. These insights can be used in the development of culturally specific cessation strategies for AA/B individuals who smoke menthol cigarettes.

A Patchy Prohibition: Product and Flavor Substitution After the Food and Drug Administration's Prioritized Enforcement Policy on Flavored E-cigarettes

INTRODUCTION

E-cigarettes have rapidly grown in use among U.S. adolescents; in response, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) engaged in an "enforcement policy on banned e-cigarette flavors" ("enforcement action") for pod-based e-cigarettes in January 2020, which accounted for most U.S. e-cigarette sales. No literature has yet examined long-term changes in e-cigarette sales patterns changed in relation to the FDA enforcement action.

AIMS AND METHODS

We analyzed U.S. e-cigarette sales using Nielsen retail scanner data between March 2017 and December 2021, describing e-cigarette sales trends overall, by device type, and by flavor category. We also performed joinpoint regression analysis on the sales trends to detect significant changes in the rate of change of sales over time.

RESULTS

The FDA enforcement action was associated with a sharp initial decrease in prefilled pod dollar sales, followed by a steady increase from April 2020 through the end of 2021, growing beyond the previous maximum in August 2019. We also observed a dramatic change in the composition of flavors sold: A large decline in mint-flavored pod sales was offset by a similar increase in menthol-flavored sales. Simultaneously, disposable product sales increased nearly ten-fold from July 2019 to July 2020 before stabilizing, dominated by fruit-flavored products.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest rapid product substitution without a long-term decline in e-cigarette sales in association with the enforcement action, along with a growing dominance of youth-friendly flavors, contrasting against FDA policy goals. Our study revealed the weakness of the "patchy" enforcement action, raising concern about its unintended consequences as consumption simply shifted to other e-cigarette products.

IMPLICATIONS

This is the first detailed longitudinal study on e-cigarette sales trends in the United States following the FDA flavor enforcement action, with novel findings on flavor trends and their relation to policy events. We report sales overall, by product type, and by flavor category, and highlight several important trends following the action, such as the rise and persistence of disposable e-cigarettes increasingly and overwhelmingly dominated by youth-friendly flavors, and likely substitution of prefilled e-cigarette flavors without any long-term decline in sales. Our results highlight the weaknesses of "patchy" regulation and suggest the need for a more comprehensive approach to flavor regulation.

Impact of the European Union's menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the appeal of tobacco, the European Union (EU) banned menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes in May 2020. This pre/post-study evaluated the impact of the menthol ban on smoking cessation outcomes among a representative cohort of Dutch smokers.

METHODS

Adult (18+ years) smokers were recruited at wave 1 (pre-ban) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys (February-March 2020) and followed post-ban at wave 2 (September-November 2020) and wave 3 (June-July 2021) (N=1326 participated in all three waves). Weighted bivariate, logistic regression and generalised estimating equation model analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Usual menthol use decreased from pre-ban (7.8%) to post-ban (4.0% at wave 2 and 4.4% at wave 3) (p<0.001). Pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of making a post-ban quit attempt than non-menthol smokers (66.9% vs 49.6%, adjusted OR (aOR)=1.89, 95% CI: 1.13 to 3.16). Compared with pre-ban non-menthol smokers, a higher proportion of menthol smokers quit by wave 2 (17.8% vs 10.2%, p=0.025) and by wave 3 (26.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.002), although this was not significant after adjusting for other factors. Female pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of quitting by wave 3 than female non-menthol smokers (aOR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.51). Most pre-ban menthol smokers (n=99) switched to non-menthol cigarettes (40.0%) or reported that they continued to smoke menthol cigarettes (33.0%) at wave 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The EU menthol ban was effective in reducing menthol use and in increasing quit attempts and quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers. Impact could be maximised by closing gaps that allow post-ban menthol cigarette use.

The Impact of Menthol Cigarette Bans: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

This review investigates the impacts of banning the sale of menthol cigarettes at stores.

METHODS

A systematic search of studies published in English up to November 2022 was conducted. The following databases were searched: PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Embase, as well as a non-indexed journal. Studies evaluating either the impact of real-world or hypothesized menthol cigarette bans were included. Primary outcomes include tobacco use behaviors. Secondary outcomes include cigarette sales, retailer compliance, and the tobacco industry's response to a menthol ban. Data on tobacco use behavior after a menthol ban were pooled using random-effects models. Two pairs of reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality.

RESULTS

Of the 964 articles that were identified during the initial search, 78 were included in the review and 16 were included in the meta-analysis. Cessation rates among menthol cigarette smokers were high after a menthol ban. Pooled results show that 24% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 20%, 28%) of menthol cigarette smokers quit smoking after a menthol ban, 50% (95% CI: 31%, 68%) switched to non-menthol cigarettes, 12% (95% CI: 3%, 20%) switched to other flavored tobacco products, and 24% (95% CI: 17%, 31%) continued smoking menthol cigarettes. Hypothesized quitting and switching rates were fairly close to real-world rates. Studies found the tobacco industry attempts to undermine menthol bans. National menthol bans appear more effective than local or state menthol bans.

CONCLUSIONS

Menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation suggesting their potential to improve public health.

IMPLICATIONS

Findings from this review suggest that menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation among menthol cigarette smokers and have the potential to improve public health.

Public health impact of a US menthol cigarette ban on the non-Hispanic black population: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

With the US Food and Drug Administration recently proposing to implement a ban on menthol cigarettes, it is critical to estimate the potential public health effects of such a ban. With high rates of menthol cigarette use and important smoking-related health disparity implications, the impact of the ban on the non-Hispanic black (NHB) population merits strong consideration.

METHODS

We apply the previously developed Menthol Smoking and Vaping Model to the NHB population. A status quo scenario is developed using NHB-specific population, smoking and vaping initiation, cessation and death rates. Estimates from a recent expert elicitation on behavioural impacts of a menthol cigarette ban on the NHB population are used to develop a menthol ban scenario implemented in 2021. The public health impacts of the menthol ban are estimated as the difference between smoking and vaping attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the status quo and the menthol ban scenarios from 2021 to 2060.

RESULTS

Under the menthol ban scenario, overall smoking is projected to decline by 35.7% in 2026 and by 25.3% in 2060 relative to the status quo scenario. With these reductions, SVADs are estimated to fall by about 18.5% and LYLs by 22.1%, translating to 255 895 premature deaths averted, and 4.0 million life years gained over a 40-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

A menthol cigarette ban will substantially reduce the smoking-associated health impact on the NHB population, thereby reducing health disparities.

Impact of Canada's menthol cigarette ban on quitting among menthol smokers: pooled analysis of pre-post evaluation from the ITC Project and the Ontario Menthol Ban Study and projections of impact in the USA

INTRODUCTION

Between 2015 and 2018, Canada banned menthol cigarettes. This study pooled data from two pre-post cohort studies (the Ontario Menthol Ban Study, and the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Canada Survey, conducted in seven provinces) to derive more precise estimates of the impact of Canada's menthol ban on quitting and to apply these estimates to project the impact of a menthol ban in the USA.

METHODS

Weighted multivariable logistic analyses compared post-ban quit success of menthol smokers with non-menthol smokers (for daily smokers and for all (daily + non-daily) smokers), controlling for sex, age, ethnicity, education, baseline smoking status, baseline cigarettes per day and study regions. Projections to the USA were created by multiplying the effect size of the Canadian menthol ban on quitting (percentage of increased quitting among menthol smokers) by the number of menthol smokers overall and among African Americans, from the 2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health.

RESULTS

After the menthol cigarette ban, menthol smokers were more likely than non-menthol smokers to have quit smoking among daily smokers (difference=8.0%; 95% CI: 2.4% to 13.7%,p=0.005) and all (daily+non-daily) smokers (difference=7.3%; 95% CI: 2.1% to 12.5%,p=0.006). The projected number of smokers who would quit after a US menthol ban would be 789 724 daily smokers (including 199 732 African Americans) and 1 337 988 daily+non-daily smokers (including 381 272 African Americans).

CONCLUSIONS

This pooled analysis of Canada's menthol cigarette ban provides the foundation for estimating the impact of menthol bans in the USA and other countries. Projections suggest that a US menthol cigarette ban would have a substantial impact on increasing quitting.

Health Care Policy and Disparities in Health

ABSTRACT

The United States has seen a 33% decline in age-adjusted cancer mortality since 1991. Despite this achievement, the United States has some of the greatest health disparities of any developed nation. US government policies are increasingly directed toward reducing health disparities and promoting health equity. These policies govern the conduct of research, cancer prevention, access, and payment for care. Although implementation of policies has played a significant role in the successes of cancer control, inconsistent implementation of policy has resulted in divergent outcomes; poorly designed or inadequately implemented policies have hindered progress in reducing cancer death rates and, in certain cases, exacerbated existing disparities. Examining policies affecting cancer control in the United States and realizing their unintended consequences are crucial in addressing cancer inequities.

Tobacco Use and Tobacco Dependence Management

Tobacco use is a major public health problem and the leading cause of preventable deaths in the United States and worldwide. Tobacco dependence determines tobacco use and is largely due to nicotine addiction. Such dependence is a disease resulting in a strong desire or compulsion to take tobacco, with difficulty in cessation of tobacco, along with persistent use despite overtly harmful consequences.

Responses of African American Individuals Who Use Menthol Cigarettes to Potential Flavored Tobacco Bans

INTRODUCTION

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed new product standards regarding the availability of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars in the U.S. However, it is unclear whether limiting characterizing flavors in cigarettes and cigars as proposed, or across all tobacco products, produces differential effects on the tobacco use behaviors of African American/Black individuals who use menthol cigarettes. This study assessed whether limiting characterizing flavors in combusted products only or across all tobacco products produces differential impacts on the tobacco use behaviors of African American/Black individuals who use menthol cigarettes.

METHODS

Adult African American/Black individuals who use menthol cigarettes in the U.S. were recruited through Qualtrics (n=373) and in Richmond, VA (n=206) for an online experiment from September 2021 to August 2022. Participants reported how their tobacco use behaviors would change under 3 scenarios: maintenance of the status quo, limited flavor ban (ban characterizing flavors in cigarettes and cigars), and comprehensive flavor ban (ban characterizing flavors in all tobacco products). Seemingly unrelated regressions compared differences in expected responses to policy scenarios (p<0.05).

RESULTS

Both flavor ban scenarios resulted in higher quitting intentions for cigarettes and all tobacco products than the status quo (p<0.05). The comprehensive ban resulted in greater intentions to quit all tobacco products and lower intentions to switch to certain alternative products (e.g., E-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, heated tobacco products) than the limited ban (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

African American/Black individuals who use menthol cigarettes appear more likely to quit smoking if characterizing flavors in combusted products (e.g., menthol cigarettes) are banned, regardless of if characterizing flavors are available in noncombusted alternative tobacco products.

A Longitudinal Study of Perceptions of the Massachusetts Menthol Ban and Its Impact on Smoking Behaviors among Marginalized Individuals

Menthol cigarettes have had a profound adverse effect on public health. On 1 June 2020, Massachusetts became the first state to ban the sale of menthol cigarettes. We explored how perceptions of the ban and smoking behaviors changed over time among a group of 27 individuals who smoked menthol cigarettes at our safety-net hospital. In a convergent mixed methods study, we administered questionnaires and interviews simultaneously at two timepoints: 1 month pre-ban and 6 months post-ban. Pre-ban, we assessed perceptions of the ban and anticipated smoking behaviors after the ban. Post-ban, we assessed participants' actual smoking behaviors and elicited suggestions to avoid unintended consequences that might undermine intended policy effects. Several respondents perceived the Massachusetts ban as positive because it could promote smoking cessation, prevent youth initiation, and mitigate unfair targeting of socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Others perceived the ban as an overreach of government policy, financially motivated, and unfairly targeting the Black community. Many continued to smoke menthol cigarettes obtained outside Massachusetts. Individuals suggested promoting tobacco treatment for people affected by the ban and a national ban to circumvent out-of-state purchasing of menthol cigarettes. Our findings suggest that in order to be most effective, healthcare systems must promote tobacco treatment and ensure that treatment is accessible to all individuals affected by the ban.

Centering racial justice for Black/African American and Indigenous American people in commercial tobacco product regulation

Although overall health in the United States (US) has improved dramatically during the past century, long-standing health inequities, particularly the unequal and unjust burden of tobacco-related disease and death among racialized populations, persist. A considerable gap exists in our understanding of how commercial tobacco product regulations and policies cause and/or exacerbate race-based health inequities among Black/African American (B/AA) and Indigenous American people. The purpose of this paper is to 1) describe how existing US commercial tobacco regulatory policies may contribute to structural racism and undermine the full benefits of tobacco prevention and control efforts among B/AA and Indigenous American groups; and 2) initiate a call to action for researchers and regulators of tobacco products to examine policies using an equity lens. These actions are imperative if empirically-informed regulation of commercial tobacco products is to address health equity.

The actual and anticipated effects of restrictions on flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems: a scoping review

Objective

To synthesize the outcomes of policy evaluations of flavoured electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) restrictions.

Data sources

PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science before May 3, 2022.

Study selection

Studies that report sales, behaviour, or compliance outcomes related to implemented or hypothetical ENDS flavour restrictions.

Data extraction

Restriction details, whether implemented or hypothetical, whether additional products were restricted, jurisdictional level, study locations, and outcomes classified by sales, behaviour, and compliance.

Data synthesis

We included 30 studies. Of those, 26 were conducted exclusively in the US, two in India, and two surveyed respondents in multiple countries, including the US. Twenty-one evaluated implemented restrictions, while nine considered hypothetical restrictions. Five studies evaluated product sales, 17 evaluated behaviour, and 10 evaluated compliance, with two studies reporting multiple outcomes. Two studies reported an increase and one a reduction in cigarette sales following restrictions, while three reported reductions in ENDS sales. Behavioural studies presented a mixed view of the impacts of regulations on ENDS and cigarette use. However, the use of disparate outcomes limits the comparability of studies. Studies of hypothetical restrictions suggest decreased ENDS use, increased cigarette use, and increased use of illicit markets. Studies of compliance with flavoured product restrictions that included ENDS found that 6–39% of stores sold restricted flavoured products post-restrictions. Online stores remain a potential source of restricted products.

Conclusion

Our findings highlight the need for additional research on the impacts of ENDS restrictions. Research should further evaluate the impact of restrictions on youth and adult use of nicotine and tobacco products in addition to the effects of restrictions in countries beyond the US to enable a robust consideration of the harm-benefit trade-off of restrictions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14440-x.

How Smokers of Menthol Cigarettes and Flavored Cigars Might Respond to FDA's Proposed Bans

INTRODUCTION

A ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars may reduce smoking and tobacco-related disparities.

AIMS AND METHODS

We aimed to examine the response of current smokers to a hypothetical ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars. Current smokers were recruited online and reported the alternative products that they may switch to under a hypothetical ban, if they would try to obtain the banned products from illicit channels, and their support to the ban.

RESULTS

51% of current smokers would use nonflavored cigarettes and cigars as alternatives, 45% would switch to flavored heated tobacco products or e-cigarettes or quit smoking. 17% would try to obtain the banned flavored products from illicit markets. A majority of menthol only smokers opposed the ban. Daily smokers would be more likely to switch to nonflavored smoking, to try illicit market products, and were less supportive of the ban. Black smokers would be less likely to switch to nonflavored smoking and were more supportive of the ban. Smokers who used menthol cigarettes only would be more likely to switch to nonflavored smoking, less likely to try illicit market sellers, and were the least supportive of the ban.

CONCLUSIONS

In response to a ban of all added flavors for cigarettes or cigars, nearly half of the current smokers would quit smoking, largely by switching to nonsmoking products. However, smokers with more chronic use and those who used only menthol cigarettes would be more likely to switch to nonflavored smoking, diminishing the harm reduction potential. The ban may decrease the relatively higher prevalence of menthol cigarette smoking among Blacks compared with other groups.

IMPLICATIONS

A ban on the sale of menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars may decrease the prevalence of smoking because some current smokers may quit smoking and switch to nonsmoking products. However, smokers with more chronic use and those who used menthol cigarettes only were more likely to switch to nonflavored cigarettes or cigars, diminishing the harm reduction potential of the ban. Black smokers would be more likely to switch to products other than cigarettes and cigars thus decreasing their relatively higher prevalence of smoking compared with other groups.

The contribution of smoking-attributable mortality to differences in mortality and life expectancy among US African-American and white adults, 2000–2019

BACKGROUND

The role of smoking in racial disparities in mortality and life expectancy in the United States has been examined previously, but up-to-date estimates are generally unavailable, even though smoking prevalence has declined in recent decades.

OBJECTIVE

We estimate the contribution of smoking-attributable mortality to observed differences in mortality and life expectancy for US African-American and white adults from 2000–2019.

METHODS

The indirect Preston–Glei–Wilmoth method was used with national vital statistics and population data and nationally representative never-smoker lung cancer death rates to estimate the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) of deaths in the United States by sex-race group from 2000–2019. Mortality rates without smoking-attributable mortality were used to estimate life expectancy at age 50 (e₅₀) by group during the period.

RESULTS

African-American men had the highest estimated SAF during the period, beginning at 26.4% (95% CI:25.0%–27.8%) in 2000 and ending at 12.1% (95% CI:11.4%–12.8%) in 2019. The proportion of the difference in e₅₀ for white and African-American men that was due to smoking decreased from 27.7% to 14.8%. For African-American and white women, the estimated differences in e₅₀ without smoking-attributable mortality were similar to observed differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking continues to contribute to racial disparities in mortality and life expectancy among men in the United States.

CONTRIBUTION

We present updated estimates of the contribution of smoking to mortality differences in the United States using nationally representative data sources.

Assessing the Health and Economic Impact of a Potential Menthol Cigarette Ban in New York City: a Modeling Study

Menthol in cigarettes increases nicotine dependence and decreases the chances of successful smoking cessation. In New York City (NYC), nearly half of current smokers usually smoke menthol cigarettes. Female and non-Latino Black individuals were more likely to smoke menthol-flavored cigarettes compared to males and other races and ethnicities. Although the US Food and Drug Administration recently announced that it will ban menthol cigarettes, it is unclear how the policy would affect population health and health disparities in NYC. To inform potential policymaking, we used a microsimulation model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) to project the long-term health and economic impact of a potential menthol ban in NYC. Our model projected that there could be 57,232 (95% CI: 51,967-62,497) myocardial infarction (MI) cases and 52,195 (95% CI: 47,446-56,945) stroke cases per 1 million adult smokers in NYC over a 20-year period without the menthol ban policy. With the menthol ban policy, 2,862 MI cases and 1,983 stroke cases per 1 million adults could be averted over a 20-year period. The model also projected that an average of $1,836 in healthcare costs per person, or $1.62 billion among all adult smokers, could be saved over a 20-year period due to the implementation of a menthol ban policy. Results from subgroup analyses showed that women, particularly Black women, would have more reductions in adverse CVD outcomes from the potential implementation of the menthol ban policy compared to males and other racial and ethnic subgroups, which implies that the policy could reduce sex and racial and ethnic CVD disparities. Findings from our study provide policymakers with evidence to support policies that limit access to menthol cigarettes and potentially address racial and ethnic disparities in smoking-related disease burden.