Dual and poly-nicotine and tobacco use among adolescents in the United States from 2011 to 2022

BACKGROUND

Adolescent nicotine and tobacco product use remains common despite declining smoking rates in the United States, likely due to the emergence of novel products. Concurrent use of multiple products may increase the risk of nicotine dependency and subsequent substance use.

AIM

To identify patterns and trends of dual and poly nicotine and tobacco use among adolescents in the US and explore associations of dual and poly nicotine and tobacco use with sociodemographic factors.

METHODS

12 years of annual National Youth Tobacco Survey data (2011-2022) from 242,637 respondents were used to examine prevalence trends of different combinations of nicotine or tobacco product use among adolescents in the US using weighted point estimates for each year. Poisson regression models examined sociodemographic factors associated with different patterns of dual and poly-product use from 2011 to 2022.

RESULTS

Overall, the prevalence of dual (i.e. at least two products) and poly (i.e. at least three products) use decreased between 2011 and 2021 (from 9.5 % to 2.8 % and from 5.1 % to 1.1 %, respectively), but showed signs of increase between 2021 and 2022 (3.7 % for dual and 1.7 % for poly use). The most common combinations included a combustible product with either a novel or noncombustible product. The risk for dual and poly-product use was higher among non-Hispanic Whites, males, and high school students.

CONCLUSIONS

Previously declining trends in the prevalence of tobacco/nicotine dual and poly use may have been reversed. Close monitoring and targeted tobacco control policies are essential to tackle multiple product use among adolescents.

Impact of the European Union's menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the appeal of tobacco, the European Union (EU) banned menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes in May 2020. This pre/post-study evaluated the impact of the menthol ban on smoking cessation outcomes among a representative cohort of Dutch smokers.

METHODS

Adult (18+ years) smokers were recruited at wave 1 (pre-ban) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys (February-March 2020) and followed post-ban at wave 2 (September-November 2020) and wave 3 (June-July 2021) (N=1326 participated in all three waves). Weighted bivariate, logistic regression and generalised estimating equation model analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Usual menthol use decreased from pre-ban (7.8%) to post-ban (4.0% at wave 2 and 4.4% at wave 3) (p<0.001). Pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of making a post-ban quit attempt than non-menthol smokers (66.9% vs 49.6%, adjusted OR (aOR)=1.89, 95% CI: 1.13 to 3.16). Compared with pre-ban non-menthol smokers, a higher proportion of menthol smokers quit by wave 2 (17.8% vs 10.2%, p=0.025) and by wave 3 (26.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.002), although this was not significant after adjusting for other factors. Female pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of quitting by wave 3 than female non-menthol smokers (aOR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.51). Most pre-ban menthol smokers (n=99) switched to non-menthol cigarettes (40.0%) or reported that they continued to smoke menthol cigarettes (33.0%) at wave 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The EU menthol ban was effective in reducing menthol use and in increasing quit attempts and quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers. Impact could be maximised by closing gaps that allow post-ban menthol cigarette use.

Prevalence and perceptions of flavour capsule cigarettes among adults who smoke in Brazil, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Mexico: findings from the ITC surveys

INTRODUCTION

The global market of flavour capsule cigarettes (FCCs) has grown significantly over the past decade; however, prevalence data exist for only a few countries. This study examined prevalence and perceptions of FCCs among adults who smoke across five countries.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data among adults who smoked cigarettes came from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Surveys-Brazil (2016/2017), Japan (2021), Republic of Korea (2021), Malaysia (2020) and Mexico (2021). FCCs use was measured based on reporting one's usual/current brand or favourite variety has flavour capsule(s). Perceptions of the harmfulness of one's usual brand versus other brands were compared between those who used capsules versus no capsules. Adjusted logistic regression models examined correlates of FCC use.

RESULTS

There were substantial differences in the prevalence of FCC use among adults who smoke across the five countries: Mexico (50.3% in 2021), Republic of Korea (31.8% in 2021), Malaysia (26.5% in 2020), Japan (21.6% in 2021) and Brazil (6.7% in 2016/2017). Correlates of FCC use varied across countries. Capsule use was positively associated with being female in Japan and Mexico, younger age in Japan, Republic of Korea and Malaysia, high education in Brazil, Japan and Mexico, non-daily smoking in Republic of Korea, and having plans to quit in Japan and Republic of Korea. There was no consistent pattern of consumer perceptions of brand harmfulness.

CONCLUSION

Our study documented the high prevalence of FCCs in some countries, pointing to the need to develop and implement regulatory strategies to control these attractive products.

First experience with nicotine products and transition to regular tobacco use: a secondary data analysis in 28 European countries

OBJECTIVE

The majority of tobacco users have had their first contact with nicotine at a young age. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the first tobacco or nicotine product tried and the transition to regular product use in 28 European countries.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of participants aged 15-40 years (n=8884) from 28 countries was conducted (Eurobarometer wave 93.2; August-September 2020). Participants who reported having ever tried tobacco or nicotine products were asked which product they tried first. Self-reported history of tobacco use determined whether they were established users (≥1 time weekly) of a range of products at any point in their life. Multilevel logistic regression was used to measure the association between first product tried and becoming a regular user of tobacco or nicotine products.

RESULTS

There was large variation between countries in the proportion of participants aged ≤40 years that ever tried tobacco or nicotine; Estonia had the highest proportion of ever users (85.8%) and Poland had the lowest (38.9%). Among those who had ever tried tobacco or nicotine, boxed cigarettes were the most common first product (72.3%) and pipe was the least common (0.4%). Compared with those who first tried e-cigarettes, the odds of ever becoming a regular user of any tobacco or nicotine product were higher among those who first had hand-rolled cigarettes (adjusted OR, aOR 2.23; 95% CI 1.43 to 3.48) or boxed cigarettes (aOR 2.08; 95% CI1.43 to 3.02) and lower among those who first tried waterpipe (aOR 0.22; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study cannot infer causality, the findings show that odds of becoming a regular tobacco user differs widely depending on the first product used. Better understanding of the associations between first product use and regular tobacco use could be informative to tobacco control policy-makers and help tailor prevention programmes.

Tobacco market trends in 97 countries between 2007 and 2021

INTRODUCTION

Analysis of the tobacco market can provide valuable insights for developing tobacco control strategies. This study examines the market trends of cigarettes, cigars/cigarillos, smoking tobacco, smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products (HTPs), and tobacco-free oral nicotine, across 97 countries between 2007 and 2021.

METHODS

We obtained annual tobacco retail value data from Euromonitor Passport and calculated the market share for each type of tobacco product. The research examined trends in retail value and market share globally, stratified by national income level, as well as in individual countries.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2015, the growth of the global tobacco market was primarily driven by cigarette sales. However, starting in 2016, emerging products, including e-cigarettes, HTPs, and tobacco-free oral nicotine, as well as non-cigarette combustible products, including cigars/cigarillos and smoking tobacco, have been mostly responsible for the increases in the global tobacco retail value. High-income countries experienced the greatest increase in the retail value of emerging products, while middle- and low-income countries still observed rises in cigarette sales.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in the retail value of different tobacco products varied widely during the study period, with distinct trends observed in different income levels and within individual countries. These trends can supplement prevalence data and be used to inform local tobacco control policies.

Associations of social media use with smoking and e-cigarettes: a national longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Social media use is high among children and young people and might influence health behaviours. We examined social media use and use of tobacco and e-cigarettes in the UK.

METHODS

We used data from participants aged 10-25 years from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (January 2015-January 2022). Participants were asked: "On a normal weekday, that is Monday to Friday, how many hours do you spend chatting or interacting with friends through a social website or app like that?". Specific social media platforms were not specified. Responses were none, less than 1 h, 1-3 h, 4-6 h, 7 h or more. Outcomes were current tobacco smoking and e-cigarette use. Generalised Estimating Equation (GEE) logistic regression models investigated associations of social media use with tobacco and e-cigarette use, and fixed effects analyses investigated changes in social media use with uptake of both products. Models included possible confounders such as age, sex, household income, ethnicity (White vs non-White) and use of tobacco or e-cigarettes by others within the home. All participants gave written informed consent.

FINDINGS

The analytic sample included 10 808 participants with 27 962 observations (mean age 15·7 years [SD 3·8], 5080 [47%] male, 5728 [53%] female, and 7868 [73%] White). Current tobacco smoking was reported at one or more timepoints by 929 (8·6%) participants, and current e-cigarette use by 270 (2·5%) participants. In adjusted GEE models, all levels of social media use were associated with greater odds of current smoking than no use. This association was particularly apparent at higher levels of use adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·11, 95% CI 2·41-4·03 for ≥7 h use vs no use), with similar associations for e-cigarettes (aOR 3·04, 2·11-4·40 for ≥7 h use vs no use). Fixed effects analyses also found increased use of social media to be associated with increased uptake of both products (eg, changing to using social media for ≥7 h/day was associated with >2 times the odds of taking up tobacco smoking [aOR 2·33, 1·28-4·24]).

INTERPRETATION

These analyses suggest an association between social media use and e-cigarette and tobacco use. Potential pathways include promotion of these products on social media. Further research with details on specific platforms would be useful as well as with longer follow-up time.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK.

Patterns of cigarette and e-cigarette use among UK adolescents: a latent class analysis of the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Patterning of cigarette and e-cigarette use among young people remains poorly characterized. We aimed to describe these patterns in the UK Millennium Cohort Study at age 14 and 17 years.

METHODS

Data on cigarette and e-cigarette use come from 9731 adolescents. Latent class analysis assigned participants to membership of classes of product use and multinomial logistic regression analyses assessed differences in the likelihood of belonging to classes by sociodemographic (age, gender, ethnicity, household income, maternal education and country of residence) and smoking-related social factors (caregiver tobacco use, caregiver e-cigarette use and peer smoking).

RESULTS

We identified four classes of use: 45.8% of adolescents 'continued to abstain' from cigarettes or e-cigarettes; 21.3% 'experimented' (used once or in the past but not currently) with cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes by age 17 but were not current users; 19.0% were 'late adopters', characterized by low levels of use at age 14 but high levels of experimentation and current use at age 17; and 13.9% were 'early adopters', characterized by high levels of experimentation and current use at ages 14 and 17. At age 17, 70.4% of 'early adopters' smoked cigarettes regularly plus an additional 27.3% experimented with cigarettes. Corresponding percentages for e-cigarettes were 37.9% and 58.9%. Tobacco and e-cigarette use by caregivers, and cigarette use by peers, were associated with being both 'late adopters' and 'early adopters'.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one in seven adolescents in the UK are 'early adopters' of nicotine products. This highlights the need to develop and implement effective policies to prevent nicotine use uptake.

Legislative provisions for standardised tobacco packaging and changes in public support in 27 European countries

BACKGROUND

Global adoption of standardised packaging requirements for tobacco products is a victory for public health, but their proliferation and impacts rely partly on public support. How this is related to legislation remains underassessed. This study explored change over time in public support for standardised packaging in countries with varying degrees of legislative provisions.

METHODS

We used data from 27 European countries, collected from 2017 (n=28, 300) and 2020 (n=27, 901) waves of the Eurobarometer survey, to assess self-reported support for standardised packaging regulations among both smokers and non-smokers. Countries were grouped into three categories of policy adoption (policy implemented; policy legislated; no legislation) and changes in support were assessed using multilevel Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

In 2020, public support for standardised packaging was 71% (95% CI 68% to 74%) in countries that implemented standardised packaging legislation, 57% (55% to 60%) in countries that had legislated but not yet implemented legislation and 41% (40%to 42%) in countries with no legislation. Compared with 2017, this represented a relative change of +8% (1% to 15%), +12% (5% to 21%) and -5% (95% CI -2% to -8%), respectively, in the three country categories. Among smokers, there was no indication of change in support across the three groups. Among non-smokers, support increased in countries with existing legislation (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]=1.14, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.23) and decreased in countries with no legislation (aPR=0.93, 0.90 to 0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Public support for standardised packaging regulations increased in countries implementing and legislating for these measures, particularly among non-smokers. An overall increase in support provides reassurance for policymakers defending policy action on tobacco packaging, as well as for those seeking to implement standardised packaging in their own countries. .

Price differences between capsule, menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes in 65 countries in 2018

The global consumption of flavoured cigarettes, particularly capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes, has been rising rapidly. Their attractiveness has been fuelled by perceptions of improved palatability, along with industry marketing tactics such as lower price points in some regions. This study aimed to compare prices of unflavoured, capsule, and menthol non-capsule cigarettes across 65 countries by analysing 2018 cigarette price data from Euromonitor Passport. Median prices of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes were each compared to unflavoured cigarettes at the country-level. Countries were included in the analysis if they contained price data for capsule or menthol non-capsule and unflavoured cigarettes (n = 65). The median price of capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 12 out of 50 countries and not statistically different in another 31 countries (p > 0.05). Capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in two (p < 0.05). The median price of menthol non-capsule cigarettes was the same as unflavoured cigarettes in 6 out of 51 countries and not statistically different in another 39 countries (p > 0.05). Menthol non-capsule cigarettes were more expensive than unflavoured cigarettes in five countries and cheaper in one country (p < 0.05). There was no pattern found in the pricing of capsule or menthol non-capsule cigarettes, suggesting variability in the tobacco industry's pricing strategies across countries. Tailoring tobacco control policies to match national market conditions, particularly in countries with significant market shares of capsule and menthol non-capsule cigarettes could help address the public health threat posed by the tobacco epidemic.

Illicit purchasing and use of flavour accessories after the European Union menthol cigarette ban: findings from the 2020-21 ITC Netherlands Surveys

BACKGROUND

The 2020 European Union (EU) menthol cigarette ban increased quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers in the Netherlands, but some reported continuing to smoke menthol cigarettes. This study examined three possible explanations for post-ban menthol use-(i) illicit purchasing, (ii) use of flavour accessories and (iii) use of non-menthol replacement brands marketed for menthol smokers.

METHODS

Data were from the ITC Netherlands Cohort Surveys among adult smokers before the menthol ban (Wave 1: February-March 2020, N = 2067) and after the ban (Wave 2: September-November 2020, N = 1752; Wave 3: June-July 2021, N = 1721). Bivariate, logistic regression and generalized estimating equation model analyses were conducted on weighted data.

RESULTS

Illicit purchasing remained low from pre-ban (2.4%, 95% CI: 1.8-3.2, Wave 1) to post-ban (1.7%, 1.2-2.5%, Wave 3), with no difference between menthol and non-menthol smokers from Wave 1 to Wave 3. About 4.4% of post-ban menthol smokers last purchased their usual brand outside of the EU and 3.6% from the internet; 42.5% of post-ban menthol smokers and 4.4% of smokers overall reported using flavour accessories, with greater odds among those aged 25-39 years vs. 55+ (aOR = 3.16, P = 0.002). Approximately 70% of post-ban smokers who reported using a menthol brand were actually using a non-menthol replacement brand.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no increase in illicit purchasing or of smuggling outside the EU among menthol and non-menthol smokers in the Netherlands 1 year after the EU menthol cigarette ban. Use of flavour accessories and non-menthol replacement brands best explain post-ban menthol use, suggesting the need to ban accessories and ensure industry compliance.

Changing awareness and sources of tobacco and e-cigarettes among children and adolescents in Great Britain

INTRODUCTION

It is illegal in the UK to sell tobacco or nicotine e-cigarettes to people under the age of 18 years, as is displaying tobacco cigarettes at the point of sale. This paper examined changes in exposure to display of these products in shops and sources of these products among children and adolescent users over time METHODS: Data from representative repeated online cross-sectional surveys of youth in Great Britain (11-18 years) were used (2018-2022; n=12 445). Outcome measures included noticing product displays and sources of e-cigarettes and tobacco cigarettes. Logistic regressions examined the associations of these outcome variables over time and with sociodemographic variables.

RESULTS

Of 12 040 participants with complete data, 10.1% used some form of nicotine product (4.2% cigarettes, 2.9% e-cigarettes, 3.0% both) at least occasionally. The likelihood of noticing tobacco cigarettes on display fell over time for both supermarkets (2018: 67.1% to 2022: 58.5%) and small shops (2018: 81.3% to 2022: 66.3%), but the likelihood of noticing e-cigarettes in supermarkets rose (2018: 57.4% to 2022: 66.5%). Sources of tobacco cigarettes did not differ over time, but e-cigarette users were more likely to get their e-cigarettes from small shops in 2022 (51.2%) vs 2019 (34.2%) (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.24, 3.29).

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that current policies to limit awareness of and access to both tobacco and e-cigarettes among adolescents in the UK may not be effective. UK policies on the advertising, promotion and sale of both tobacco and e-cigarettes need to be reinforced to deter use among children and adolescents.

A longitudinal study of transitions between smoking and smokeless tobacco use from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys: implications for tobacco control in the Southeast Asia region

Background

In Southeast Asia, tobacco use is a major public health threat. Tobacco users in this region may switch between or concurrently use smoked tobacco and smokeless tobacco (SLT), which makes effective tobacco control challenging. This study tracks transitions of use among different product users (cigarettes, bidis, and SLT) in Bangladesh, one of the largest consumers of tobacco in the region, and examines factors related to transitions and cessation.

Methods

Four waves (2009-2015) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Survey with a cohort sample of 3245 tobacco users were analysed. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models were used to explore the socioeconomic correlates of transitions from the exclusive use of cigarettes, bidis, or SLT to the use of other tobacco products or quitting over time.

Findings

Among exclusive cigarette users, most remained as exclusive cigarette users (68.1%). However, rural smokers were more likely than urban smokers to transition to bidi use (odds ratio [OR] = 3.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.45-6.29); to SLT use (OR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.79-4.02) and to quit tobacco (OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.06-2.33). Among exclusive bidi users, transitional patterns were more volatile. Fewer than half (43.3%) of the exclusive bidi users maintained their status throughout the waves. Those with higher socio-economic status (SES) were more likely to quit (OR = 4.16, 95% CI = 1.08-13.12) compared to low SES smokers. Exclusive SLT users either continued using SLT or quit with minimal transitions to other products (≤2%). Nevertheless, males were more likely to switch to other tobacco products; younger (OR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.23-6.90 vs. older), more educated (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.77-3.12 vs. less educated), and urban SLT users (OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30-0.86 for rural vs. urban users) were more likely to quit.

Interpretation

Complex transitional patterns were found among different types of tobacco product users over time in Bangladesh. These findings can inform more comprehensive and multi-faceted approaches to tackle diversified tobacco use in Bangladesh and neighbouring countries in the Southeast Asia region with similar tobacco user profiles of smoked tobacco and SLT products.

Funding

This is an unfunded observational study with the use the ITC Bangladesh datasets. The ITC Bangladesh Surveys were supported by grants from the US National Cancer Institute (P01 CA138389), the International Development Research Centre (IDRC Grant 104831-003), and Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MOP-79551, MOP-115016).

Flavour capsule cigarette use and perceptions: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review on flavour capsule cigarettes aims to examine prevalence, correlates of use, behaviours and perceptions of these products globally.

DATA SOURCES

A search of original, peer-reviewed research without restrictions in publication year, population, study design or language, using a combination of cigarette and capsule terms was conducted across four databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Scopus), indexed until 30 April 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if they presented original, human subjects research on flavour capsule cigarettes.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two authors independently extracted data on main outcome results and assessed risk of bias using a validated quality assessment tool (QATSDD).

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of 842 unduplicated database records and four studies from citation searching screened, 20 studies were included in the review. Studies reported data from 2009 to 2019 across eight countries, the majority of which used cross-sectional or focus group study designs. Current capsule use among smokers was highest in Chile and Mexico (40%) and was associated with younger age, and in some countries, with being female. Capsule cigarettes are perceived as tasting better, being smoother on the throat, more fun to smoke, and more attractive compared with non-capsule cigarettes, particularly among susceptible non-smokers and non-daily smokers.

CONCLUSION

Findings call for the adoption of comprehensive tobacco control policies that account for flavour capsules and similar iterations, which can increase appeal through flavours and innovative features. Continued monitoring and research of these products is critical, with particular attention to low-income and middle-income countries, which make up a disproportionately larger share of the capsule market.

Marketing of flavour capsule cigarettes: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aims to identify marketing elements of flavour capsule variants (FCVs), cigarettes that release flavour when a capsule(s) embedded in the filter is crushed.

DATA SOURCES

A search of original research without restrictions in publication year, population, study design or language using a combination of cigarette and capsule terms was conducted across four databases (Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Scopus), indexed until 13 December 2021, along with a citation search.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if they presented original research relevant to marketing features of FCVs.

DATA EXTRACTION

One author performed data extraction and coded outcomes based on '4Ps' of marketing mix theory: product, place, price and promotion. The second author conducted a cross-check.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of 2436 unduplicated database records and 30 records from other sources, 40 studies were included in the review. Studies were published between 2009 and 2021. Study methodologies primarily included content analysis of cigarette packs/sticks, review of tobacco industry documents and content analysis of advertising information. Findings suggest FCVs are marketed using a mix of strategies, particularly characterised by product innovation, timing market launches around tobacco policies, point-of-sale advertising and packaging to communicate a high-tech, customisable and flavourful product.

CONCLUSION

Findings illuminate the marketing strategies of FCVs that are likely driving their global growth, particularly among young people and in low and middle-income countries. Comprehensive tobacco control regulations are needed to close loopholes and curb industry efforts to circumvent existing policies in order to mitigate uptake of FCVs and other product innovations.

Multistate transition modelling of e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking among youth in the UK

INTRODUCTION

E-cigarette use remains a controversial topic, with questions over how people transition between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking. This paper examined transitions into and out of nicotine product use in a representative sample of UK youth.

METHODS

We used Markov multistate transition probability models on data from 10 229 participants (10-25 years old) in the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2015-2021). We used four product use states ('never', 'non-current use', 'e-cigarette only' and 'smoking and dual use') and estimated likelihood of transitions according to sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Among participants who had never used nicotine products, most were still non-users a year later (92.9% probability; 95% CI 92.6%, 93.2%); a small proportion transitioned to using e-cigarettes only (4.0%; 95% CI 3.7%, 4.2%) and cigarettes (2.2%; 95% CI 2.0%, 2.4%). Those aged 14-17 years were the most likely to start using a nicotine product. E-cigarette use was less persistent overtime than cigarette smoking, with a 59.1% probability (95% CI 56.9%, 61.0%) of e-cigarette users still using after 1 year compared with 73.8% (95% CI 72.1%, 75.4%) for cigarette smoking. However, there was a 14% probability (95% CI 12.8%, 16.2%) that e-cigarette users went onto smoke cigarettes after 1 year, rising to 25% (95% CI 23%, 27%) after 3 years.

CONCLUSION

This study found that although overall nicotine product use was relatively rare, participants were more likely to experiment with e-cigarette use than cigarette smoking. This was mostly not persistent over time; however, approximately one in seven transitioned to cigarette smoking. Regulators should aim to deter all nicotine product use among children.

Perceptions and reasons for quitting and transitioning between smoking and smokeless tobacco products: Findings from four waves of the ITC Bangladesh survey

INTRODUCTION

Transitions between different tobacco products are frequent among tobacco users in Bangladesh; however, the reasons leading to such transitions and why they quit are not well researched. The aim of the study is to examine perceptions and reasons reported by tobacco users in Bangladesh to transition to other products or quit.

METHODS

Data from four waves (2009-2015) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Survey were used. Repeated data on perceptions and reasons for exclusive cigarette (n=520), bidi (n=130), and SLT users (n=308) to either start using other products or quit were analyzed with sampling weights. The percentages of responses across waves were used to calculate the pooled proportion data using a meta-analysis approach.

RESULTS

Common reasonsig for respondents switching to other tobacco products were influence of friends/family (73.8-86.0%), and curiosity (44.4-71.3%). The perceived calming effect of smoking cigarettes and bidis (43.2-56.9%), and the impression that bidis were less harmful (52.3%) and taste better (71.2%) were major reasons for exclusive SLT users to switch products. Health concerns (16.5-62.7%) and disapproval from friends/family (29.8-56.4%) were generally the main reasons for quitting. For smoked tobacco users, doctor's advice (41.6%), package warning labels (32.3%), and price (32.4%) seemed to be the major driving factors to quit.

CONCLUSIONS

Results highlight that the reasons for switching between tobacco products and quitting include social factors (e.g. friends/family) and (mis) perceptions regarding the products. Tobacco control policy could emphasize cessation support, increased price and education campaigns as key policies to reduce overall tobacco use in Bangladesh. Data from four waves (2009-2015) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Survey were used. Repeated data on perceptions and reasons for exclusive cigarette (n=520), bidi (n=130), and SLT users (n=308) to either start using other products or quit were analyzed with sampling weights. The percentages of responses across waves were used to calculate the pooled proportion data using a meta-analysis approach.

Engagement With Gamification Elements in a Smoking Cessation App and Short-term Smoking Abstinence: Quantitative Assessment

BACKGROUND

Gamification in smoking cessation apps has been found to improve cognitive outcomes associated with higher odds of quitting. Although some research has shown that gamification can also positively impact behavioral outcomes such as smoking cessation, studies have largely focused on physical activity and mental health. Only a few studies have explored the effects of gamification on smoking cessation outcomes, of which the majority have adopted qualitative methodologies and/or assessed engagement with apps using self-report.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore levels of user engagement with gamification features in a smoking cessation app via in-app metrics. Specifically, the objective of this paper was to investigate whether higher engagement with gamification features is associated with the likelihood of quitting in the short term.

METHODS

Data from a larger online study that recruited smokers seeking to quit were analyzed to address the objectives presented in this paper. The study took place between June 2019 and July 2020, and participants were primarily recruited via social media posts. Participants who met the eligibility criteria used 1 of 2 mobile apps for smoking cessation. In-app metrics shared by the developer of one of the smoking cessation apps, called Kwit, were used to assess engagement with gamification features. Out of 58 participants who used the Kwit app, 14 were excluded due to missing data or low engagement with the app (ie, not opening the app once a week). For the remaining 44 participants, mean (SD) values were calculated for engagement with the app using in-app metrics. A logistic regression model was used to investigate the association between engagement with gamification and 7-day smoking abstinence.

RESULTS

In total, data from 44 participants who used the Kwit app were analyzed. The majority of participants were male, married, and employed. Almost 30% (n=13) of participants self-reported successful 7-day abstinence at the end of the study. On average, the Kwit app was opened almost 31 (SD 39) times during the 4-week study period, with the diary feature used the most often (mean 22.8, SD 49.3). Moreover, it was found that each additional level unlocked was associated with approximately 22% higher odds of achieving 7-day abstinence after controlling for other factors such as age and gender (odds ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.01-1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the likely positive effects of certain gamification elements such as levels and achievements on short-term smoking abstinence. Although more robust research with a larger sample size is needed, this research highlights the important role that gamification features integrated into mobile apps can play in facilitating and supporting health behavior change.

A multi-country analysis of transnational tobacco companies' market share

INTRODUCTION

The international tobacco market is dominated by five transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) which continue to interfere with measures to reduce tobacco consumption. The aim of this study is to better understand the current international tobacco industry market structure by providing an overview of the market share of these five companies globally.

METHODS

A longitudinal multi-country study design was used to understand market share trends across 90 different countries from 2011 to 2020. Descriptive analyses were conducted based on market share and market size data obtained from Euromonitor Passport. Market share (%), maximal market share (%) and cumulative market share (%) were calculated. Maps and boxplots are used to present the descriptive analyses. Median cumulative TTC market share and interquartile ranges for each year were calculated and stratified by country income level.

RESULTS

The average maximal market share of one company in a country was 50% (IQR: 40.0-63.5) in 2020 compared to 51.5% in 2011 (IQR: 41.3-69.0). One of the five TTCs had the highest market share in 77 out of the 90 countries. Philip Morris International was the main market player in 38 countries, followed by British American Tobacco (24), Japan Tobacco International (8), Imperial Brands (6), and lastly China National Tobacco Corporation was only dominant in China. The percentage of cigarettes manufactured by one of the five TTCs remained relatively stable between 2011 (86.4%) and 2020 (85.2%). Average cumulative TTC market shares increased between 2011 and 2020 in both low- and middle-, and high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The international tobacco market is concentrated with a small number of large players, and this has not changed substantially between 2011 and 2020. The impact of this on the ability of the tobacco industry to resist policy changes is unknown but presents a cause for concern.

Risk factors for adolescent smoking uptake: an analysis of prospective data from the Millennium Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Preventing smoking uptake among adolescents is essential to achieve a smoke-free generation. The aim of this study was to assess risk factors for smoking in late adolescence and smoking uptake between early and late adolescence, using data from the Millennium Cohort Study. We also present estimates of numbers of smokers and smoking uptake.

METHODS

Adolescents aged 14-17 years were included in the analysis. In separate logistic regression models, we assessed associations between age, sex, ethnicity, household income, country of residence, current smoking of a caregiver, current smoking of peers and use of social media, and regular smoking (defined as smoking at least one cigarette per week) at the age of 17 years and smoking uptake between the ages of 14 and 17 years (defined as being a never-smoker at the age of 14 years and a regular smoker at the age of 17 years). We also estimated numbers of regular smoking and smoking uptake using the Office for National Statistics 2018-19 population estimates.

FINDINGS

Data from 8944 adolescents aged 14-17 years with smoking data available were included, 948 (10·6%) of which were regular tobacco smokers at the age of 17 years. 488 (51·5%) of these 948 started smoking between the ages of 14 years and 17 years. Smoking uptake was more common among adolescents reporting caregiver smoking (162 [13·6%] of 1188 vs 324 [5·0%] of 6538 with non-smoking caregivers; p<0·0001); peers smoking (223 [12·6%] of 1764 vs 229 [4·3%] of 5350 without smoking peers; p<0·0001), and those reporting higher (at least 5 h/weekday) social media use (115 [9·8%] of 1176 vs 120 [4·1%] of 2947 with lower [less than 1 h/weekday] social media use; p=0·0059), among 7786 adolescents who did not smoke at age 14. We estimated that 164 313 (95% CI 146 815-181 811) adolescents were regular smokers by the age of 17 years, of whom 101 715 (85 994-117 435) took up the habit between the age of 14 years and 17 years.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings are a reminder of the transmissibility of the smoking epidemic. Although we only assessed social media use, not actual exposure to online tobacco advertising, our findings strengthen calls for awareness of the changing landscape of tobacco advertising.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK (grant reference PPRCTAGPJT\100005) and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research. The funders had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit for publication.

Global market trends of flavour capsule and menthol cigarettes in 78 countries, 2010-2020

Background

Flavoured tobacco products, including innovative flavour capsule cigarettes (FCCs) and menthol cigarettes, can increase appeal and encourage smoking initiation and use. Global epidemiological data on these products are scarce.

Methods

This study examined market trends of FCCs and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes across 78 countries from 2010 to 2020 and assessed ecological-level factors associated with market shares of these products. Market share and retail volume data came from Euromonitor Passport and country-specific sociodemographic data come from the WHO and World Bank. Adjusted linear fixed effects panel regression analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between predictors variables and market outcomes.

Results

Global total retail volume of FCCs increased over time (0.2% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2020) and market share was associated with year and unemployment rate and inversely associated with % urban population and smoking prevalence (p &lt; 0.001). In contrast, menthol retail volume decreased over time (5.0% to 3.8%) and market share was associated with % urban population (p = 0.001) and inversely associated with year (p = 0.004) and unemployment rate (p = 0.017). The greatest market increase of FCCs was observed in the Americas region and among upper-middle income countries. In Europe, there was a decrease of 0.64 percentage points from 2019 to 2020.

Conclusions

Overall, FCCs experienced substantial global growth in the recent decade, with the exception of Europe whose slight decrease may be attributable to the European Union ban on flavours in cigarettes. Findings indicate that there is a need for increased efforts to address flavours and innovative features used in tobacco products, which are known to appeal to youth.

Key messages

• This study contributes to global monitoring of tobacco products.

• Findings can be used by advocates and policy makers to support countries in adopting measures to ban flavoured tobacco products.

Global market trends of flavor capsule cigarettes and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes: An ecological analysis using commercial data across 78 countries, 2010–2020

INTRODUCTION

This study describes market trends of flavor capsule cigarettes (FCCs) and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes (MNCCs) across 78 countries from 2010 to 2020 and examines country-level factors associated with market shares of these products.

METHODS

Market share and retail volume data came from the Euromonitor Passport database and country-level data came from the World Health Organization (WHO), World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Multivariable linear fixed effects panel regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between predictor variables and the market shares of menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes and flavor capsule cigarettes.

RESULTS

The overall market share (i.e. the percentage retail volume out of total retail volume of all cigarette types) increased from 0.23% in 2010 to 4.5% in 2020 for FCCs and decreased from 5.0% to 3.8% for MNCCs. Market shares of FCCs grew most rapidly in the Americas region and among upper middle-income countries. Market shares of MNCCs remained stable across most regions and were highest in the Western Pacific and Africa regions. The overall market share of FCCs was positively associated with the unemployment rate (β=0.28; 95% CI: 0.12–0.44, p=0.001), and inversely associated with the percent of the population aged 15–29 years (β= -0.57, 95% CI: -0.98 – -0.15, p=0.008), percent of urban population (β= -0.88; 95% CI: -1.28 – -0.48, p<0.001), GDP PPP per capita (β= -0.13; 95% CI: -0.24 – -0.03, p=0.015), and age-standardized prevalence of cigarette smoking (β= -0.93; 95% CI: -1.38 – -0.49, p<0.001). In contrast, the overall market share of MNCCs was positively associated with urbanicity (β=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08–0.40, p=0.003), and negatively associated with the unemployment rate (β= -0.09; 95% CI: -0.17 – -0.02, p=0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Global sales of flavor capsule cigarettes grew substantially in the last decade, surpassing menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes, which also continued to be high in many regions. There is a need for increased efforts to address flavors and novel tobacco products, features that are known to appeal to youth.

Corruption In Health Care Systems: Trends In Informal Payments Across Twenty-Eight EU Countries, 2013-19

Corruption is a major challenge in health care systems across the European Union (EU), where it manifests most visibly as informal payments from patients to providers. A higher prevalence of informal payments has been associated with lower public health care expenditure. EU member states have experienced significant changes in public health care expenditure throughout the 2000s. Given the lack of research on the topic, we explored trends in informal payments using representative data from twenty-eight EU member states during the period 2013-19 and in relation to changes in public health care expenditure. Overall, we found that informal payments increased in 2019 compared with 2013, whereas the perception of corruption decreased. Although higher public health care expenditure was associated with less corruption, we found a smaller effect size between informal payments and this expenditure throughout the study period. Our results suggest that informal payments may be driven by other factors, although the directionality of this relationship requires further investigation. Moreover, additional public health care investments may be insufficient to confront corruption unless coupled with measures to limit wasteful spending and increase transparency. Policy makers should understand that factors external to health systems, including media coverage and cultural and political factors, should be explored to explain country-level differences in corruption.

Brazilian smokers are ready for the ban on flavour additives in tobacco to be implemented

Brazil became the first country to approve a national policy to ban all flavour additives in all tobacco leaf products in 2012. However, as of February 2022, the policy remained to be implemented. Cross-sectional data come from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Brazil Wave 3 Survey among adult smokers (N = 1216) in 2016-2017. The majority of smokers supported a ban on menthol (56.0%; 95%CI: 51.7-60.2%) and a ban on all additives (61.7%; 57.5-65.8%), with no significant differences across sociodemographic groups in adjusted logistic regression models. More than half of menthol smokers reported they would either quit or reduce the amount they smoked if menthol cigarettes were banned. Findings suggest that there is support for Brazil's ban on flavour additives, which is a determinant of successful policy implemented. Continued delays will postpone an important measure with demonstrated public health gains.

Burden of current and past smoking across 28 European countries in 2017: A cross-sectional analysis

INTRODUCTION

Most studies use the prevalence of current smoking as an indicator to quantify the burden of smoking. However, length and intensity of smoking, as well as time since cessation for former smokers are also known to impact smoking-related health risks. The aim of this study was to quantify and compare the burden of smoking across the European Union (EU) using a range of smoking burden indicators.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the March 2017 Eurobarometer 87.1 (n=27901, people aged ≥15 years) in 28 European Union Member States (EU MS) and the Tobacco Control Scale. We defined five indicators of smoking burden including the prevalence of current and ever smoking, length of smoking, pack-years, and discounted pack-years, and ranked EU MS by each indicator. Two-level linear and logistic regressions were performed to assess the association between these indicators and sociodemographic and tobacco policy factors.

RESULTS

Wide variations across the EU countries were observed in all smoking burden indicators. While some MS ranked consistently high (e.g. Greece, France) or consistently low (e.g. Ireland, United Kingdom) in all indicators, we found substantial discrepancies in ranking depending on the indicator used for MS such as Malta, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands. All indicators of smoking burden were lower among women and respondents without financial difficulties; however, the magnitude of those inequalities varied two-fold among the different indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a range of smoking burden indicators can be more informative than relying on prevalence alone. Our analysis highlights the limitations of relying solely on prevalence of current smoking to estimate the burden of smoking and the potential value of more nuanced indicators. We recommend that multiple and more nuanced indicators that consider former smokers, intensity and duration of smoking should be utilized to monitor tobacco use and evaluate tobacco control policies.

Association between e-cigarette use initiated after cigarette smoking and smoking abstinence: a cross-sectional study among adolescent established smokers in the USA

BACKGROUND

Recent years have seen a rapid increase in the popularity of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among adolescents in the USA. Evidence on their role in the continuation of or abstinence from cigarette smoking among young smokers remains scarce.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between e-cigarette use initiated after cigarette smoking and abstinence from cigarette smoking among US adolescent established smokers.

METHODS

The data were drawn from the 2015-2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey-a nationally representative survey of US middle and high school students. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between ever e-cigarette use and past 30-day abstinence from cigarette smoking. The analytical sample comprised ever established cigarette smokers with or without a history of e-cigarette use after smoking initiation.

RESULTS

Neither experimental (adjusted OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.39-1.14) nor prior established (adjusted OR 1.56, 95% CI 0.96-2.56) nor current established (adjusted OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.41-1.03) e-cigarette use was statistically significantly associated with subsequent abstinence from cigarette smoking among adolescent ever established smokers. These findings were largely consistent across sensitivity analyses using alternative key definitions, although experimental and current established e-cigarette use was significantly negatively associated with past 6-month abstinence.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that e-cigarette use among US adolescents already smoking cigarettes is associated with subsequent abstinence from cigarette smoking; there was some evidence of an inverse association among experimental and current established e-cigarette users. These findings could inform future regulatory and public health efforts regarding youth e-cigarette use and the reduction of youth cigarette smoking in the USA.

How do Europeans quit using tobacco, e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products? A cross-sectional analysis in 28 European countries

OBJECTIVES

While smoking tobacco remains a substantial cause of harm in Europe, novel products such as electronic cigarettes or e-cigarettes (ECs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have entered the market recently. While debate still persists over the role of these novel products, they are now in widespread use. This study aimed to explore the prevalence and methods of attempts to quit EC and HTP.

SETTING

We analysed the 2020 Eurobarometer survey, which collected data in 28 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of individuals residing in these countries aged ≥15 years.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Multilevel regression analyses were performed to assess differences in quit attempts and cessation methods among tobacco smokers and exclusive EC/HTP users separately.

RESULTS

51.1% of current tobacco smokers and 27.1% of exclusive EC or HTP users reported having ever made a quit attempt. The majority of former and current smokers (75.8%) who made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 28.8% reporting at least one attempt using a cessation aid. The most popular cessation aids were nicotine replacement therapy or other medication (13.4%) and ECs (11.3%). 58.8% of exclusive EC or HTP users who had made a quit attempt did so unassisted, with 39.5% reporting the use of a cessation aid.

CONCLUSION

Most EC and HTP users in Europe try to quit unassisted, although more of them report the use of a cessation aid compared with tobacco smokers. Cessation support services should take into consideration the increasing numbers of users of EC and HTP who may be trying to quit.

Ischemic stroke in oral anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Ischemic strokes in orally anticoagulated patients pose challenges for acute management and secondary prevention but the characteristics of these strokes are poorly understood. We examined the clinical and imaging features, the presumed underlying etiology and the subsequent antithrombotic management.

METHODS

We analyzed a consecutive series of patients enrolled into the EIDASAF study, a single center, observational study of ischemic stroke patients with a diagnosis atrial fibrillation (AF) prior to the index event who had been admitted to the Hyperacute Stroke Unit of Imperial College London between 2010 and 2017. We compared patients with oral anticoagulation therapy prior admission (OAC_prior ) with those without anticoagulation (OAC_naive ). Brain imaging was analyzed centrally.

RESULTS

763 patients were included in the analysis. 481 (63%) were OAC_naive while 282 (37%) were OAC_prior . Patients with OAC_prior were younger, more often had a previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), and more often suffered from hypertension and diabetes. In OAC_naive, patients, large and deep middle cerebral artery infarcts occurred more often than in OAC_prior patients. The groups differed significantly in the distribution of competing etiologies underlying their stroke. At discharge, OAC_prior more frequently were (re)-anticoagulated compared to OAC_naive patients. Within the OAC_prior group, patients with recurrent strokes did not differ from those with a first stroke regarding clinical characteristics and pattern of cerebral infarction but they were less frequently anticoagulated.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic strokes on OAC represent a significant proportion of AF-related strokes. There is an unmet need to better understand the causes underlying these strokes and to optimize the medical management.

Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: A longitudinal analysis of 159 countries

Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008-2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of tobacco use, and reliance on taxation data only for the cigarette brands most sold in each country. In line with limited existing evidence conducted in HICs, we found that raising taxes on tobacco was associated with a reduction in neonatal and infant mortality globally. Implementing recommended levels of taxation in LMICs should be a priority since this is where the lowest levels of taxation and the largest potential infant mortality benefits exist.

European progress in working towards a tobacco-free generation

Children have the right to grow up free from the hazards associated with tobacco smoking. Tobacco smoke exposure can have detrimental effects on children's health and development, from before birth and beyond. As a result of effective tobacco control policies, European smoking rates are steadily decreasing among adults, as is the proportion of adolescents taking up smoking. Substantial variation however exists between countries, both in terms of smoking rates and regarding implementation, comprehensiveness and enforcement of policies to address smoking and second-hand smoke exposure. This is important because comprehensive tobacco control policies such as smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation have extensively been shown to carry clear health benefits for both adults and children. Additional policies such as increasing the legal age to buy tobacco, reducing the number of outlets selling tobacco, banning tobacco display and advertising at the point-of-sale, and introducing plain packaging for tobacco products can help reduce smoking initiation by youth. At societal level, health professionals can play an important role in advocating for stronger policy measures, whereas they also clearly have a duty to address smoking and tobacco smoke exposure at the patient level. This includes providing cessation advise and referring to effective cessation services.Conclusion: Framing of tobacco exposure as a child right's issue and of comprehensive tobacco control as a tool to work towards the ultimate goal of reaching a tobacco-free generation can help accelerate European progress to curb the tobacco epidemic. What is Known: • Tobacco exposure is associated with a range of adverse health effects among babies and children. • Comprehensive tobacco control policies helped bring down smoking rates in Europe and benefit child health. What is New: • Protecting the rights and health of children provides a strong starting point for tobacco control advocacy. • The tobacco-free generation concept helps policy-makers set clear goals for protecting future generations from tobacco-associated harms.

Predicting COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events: Model-Based Approach

BACKGROUND

Modelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to controlling the probability of subsequent outbreaks and communicating to participants their personalized risk. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information including vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission.

OBJECTIVE

This paper attempted to bridge this gap by providing informative risk metrics for live public events, along with a measure of their uncertainty.

METHODS

Building upon existing models, our approach ties together 3 main components: (1) reliable modelling of the number of infectious cases at the time of the event, (2) evaluation of the efficiency of pre-event screening, and (3) modelling of the event's transmission dynamics and their uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations.

RESULTS

We illustrated the application of our pipeline for a concert at the Royal Albert Hall and highlighted the risk's dependency on factors such as prevalence, mask wearing, and event duration. We demonstrate how this event held on 3 different dates (August 20, 2020; January 20, 2021; and March 20, 2021) would likely lead to transmission events that are similar to community transmission rates (0.06 vs 0.07, 2.38 vs 2.39, and 0.67 vs 0.60, respectively). However, differences between event and background transmissions substantially widened in the upper tails of the distribution of the number of infections (as denoted by their respective 99th quantiles: 1 vs 1, 19 vs 8, and 6 vs 3, respectively, for our 3 dates), further demonstrating that sole reliance on vaccination and antigen testing to gain entry would likely significantly underestimate the tail risk of the event.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the unknowns surrounding COVID-19 transmission, our estimation pipeline opens the discussion on contextualized risk assessment by combining the best tools at hand to assess the order of magnitude of the risk. Our model can be applied to any future event and is presented in a user-friendly RShiny interface. Finally, we discussed our model's limitations as well as avenues for model evaluation and improvement.

Electronic cigarette use in 12 European countries. Results from the TackSHS survey

BACKGROUND

Limited data on electronic cigarette prevalence, patterns and settings of use are available from several European countries.

METHODS

Within the TackSHS project, a face-to-face survey was conducted in 2017-2018 in 12 European countries (Bulgaria, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania and Spain). Overall, 11,876 participants, representative of the population aged ≥15 years in each country, provided information on electronic cigarette.

RESULTS

2.4% (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.2-2.7) of the subjects (2.5% among men and 2.4% among women; 0.4% among never, 4.4% among current- and 6.5% among ex-smokers) reported current use of electronic cigarette, ranging from 0.6% in Spain to 7.2% in England. Of the 272 electronic cigarette users, 52.6% were dual users (i.e., users of both electronic and conventional cigarettes) and 58.8% used liquids with nicotine. In all, 65.1% reported using electronic cigarette in at least one indoor setting where smoking is forbidden, in particular in workplaces (34.9%), and bars and restaurants (41.5%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that electronic cigarette use was lower among older individuals (p for trend <0.001) and higher among individuals with high level of education (p for trend 0.040). Participants from countries with higher tobacco cigarette prices more frequently reported electronic cigarette use (odds ratio 3.62; 95% CI: 1.80-7.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the whole adult population of these 12 European countries, more than 8.3 million people use electronic cigarettes. The majority of users also smoked conventional cigarettes, used electronic cigarettes with nicotine and consumed electronic cigarettes in smoke-free indoor areas.

Cigarette taxation and price differentials in 195 countries during 2014-2018

INTRODUCTION

Raising tobacco prices via increased taxation may be undermined by tobacco industry tactics to keep budget cigarettes on the market. Price differentials between budget and premium cigarettes allow smokers to trade down in the face of average price rises thus attenuating health benefits. This study examines global trends of price differentials and associations with taxation.

METHODS

Ecological analysis of country-level panel data of 195 countries' price differentials was performed and compared against total, specific excise, ad valorem and other taxation. Price differentials were expressed as the difference between budget cigarette and premium pack prices (as % of premium pack prices). Two-level linear regression models with repeated measurements (2014, 2016 and 2018) nested within each country assessed the association between country-level taxation structures and price differentials, adjusted for year, geographical region and income group.

RESULTS

Worldwide, median price differential between budget and premium 20-cigarette packs was 49.4% (IQR 25.9%-70.0%) in 2014 and 44.4% (IQR 22.5%-69.4%) in 2018 with significant regional variation. The largest price differentials in 2018 were in Africa, with the lowest in Europe. Total taxation was negatively associated with price differentials (-1.5%, 95% CI -2.5% to -0.4% per +10% total taxation) as was specific excise taxation (-2.5%, 95% CI -3.7% to -1.2% per +10% specific excise tax). We found no statistically significant association between ad valorem taxation and price differentials.

CONCLUSION

Total levels of taxation and specific excise taxes were associated with smaller price differentials. Implementing high specific excise taxes may reduce price differentials and improve health outcomes.

Price differentials of tobacco products: A cross-sectional analysis of 79 countries from the six WHO regions

INTRODUCTION

Increased taxation is one of the most effective tobacco control measures. Price differentials across tobacco product types may undermine the effectiveness of taxation policies by providing the option to switch to cheaper products rather than to quit. The aim of this study was to use commercial data to compare prices and price differentials of both cigarette and non-cigarette products across countries from all geographical regions.

METHODS

We analyzed 6920 price data points (i.e. product brands) from Euromonitor Passport 2016 for 12 types of tobacco products across 79 countries from the six WHO regions: Africa (n=5), Eastern Mediterranean (n=6), Europe (n=39), the Americas (n=15), South-East Asia (n=3), and Western Pacific (n=12). For each product and country, a price differential was computed as the percentage of minimum price to the median.

RESULTS

Median cigarette prices (US$) were highest in Western Pacific countries (4.00; range: 0.80-16.20) and European countries (3.80; range: 0.80-14.00), but lowest in African countries (2.00; range: 0.80-2.20). The medians of cigarette price differentials were largest in the Eastern Mediterranean (48.33%) and African regions (50.00%), but smallest in Europe (82.35%). Pipe tobacco and fine-cut tobacco were generally less expensive than cigarettes while cigars were the most expensive. However, there were wide variations in prices and price differentials across regions and tobacco products.

CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial variations in prices and price differentials between countries and world regions across tobacco products, likely reflecting differences in taxation policies and structures. Findings identify types of tobacco products in specific geographical regions where price differentials are highest, thereby highlighting areas where taxation policies need improvement, for example through implementing specific excise taxes.

Cigarette prices in eight sub-Saharan African countries in 2018: a cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVE

While the trend in smoking prevalence is decreasing worldwide, the number of male tobacco smokers is growing in Africa. This study compares the cigarette market in eight sub-Saharan African countries. This includes examining cigarette prices, pricing differentials, pack sizes and affordability at national and subnational levels.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A cross-sectional data analysis using data from the Data on Alcohol and Tobacco in Africa (DATA) Project. The DATA Project was centrally coordinated by project supervisors following a standardised protocol. University students were recruited to conduct data collection and a total of 22 347 retail cigarette price data points collected between June and August 2018 were analysed (including Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). Prices were converted to US$ and standardised to the price of a 20-cigarette pack.

RESULTS

This research found large price differentials within provinces/states, with the gap between medium and minimum prices per 20-cigarette pack exceeding 50% of the medium price in 18 out of 24 provinces/states. Single cigarettes were widely available, especially in Lesotho and Ethiopia. Results of multivariable regression suggest prices (per 20-cigarette pack) were lower for cigarettes sold in packs than single sticks (-US$0.27, 95% CI: -US$0.39 to -US$0.23) and lower in less populated areas (-US$0.28 in rural compared with urban settings, 95% CI: -US$0.41 to -US$0.15). Availability of cheaper single cigarettes (lower per unit price than packed cigarettes) were identified for Lesotho and South Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings identify a varied picture in cigarette pricing in studied countries and suggest measures to tackle pricing differentials and availability of single sticks are warranted. These measures should counteract the potential health consequences of the increasing penetration of tobacco industry in these sub-Saharan African countries.

Global Patterns and Prevalence of Dual and Poly-Tobacco Use: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Improving understanding of the epidemiology of dual and poly-tobacco product use is essential for tobacco control policy and practice. The present study aimed to systematically review existing epidemiologic evidence on current dual and poly-tobacco use among adults globally.

METHODS

We systematically searched online databases for studies published up to June 30, 2020. We included quantitative studies with measures of nationally representative prevalence of current dual or poly-tobacco use among adults. Prevalence estimates for each country were extracted manually and stratified by WHO regions and World Bank income classifications.

RESULTS

Twenty studies with nationally representative prevalence data on current dual or poly-tobacco use in the adult population across 48 countries were included. Definitions of dual and poly-tobacco use varied widely. Prevalence of dual and poly-tobacco use was higher in low- and lower-middle-income countries compared to other higher-income countries. Current dual use of smoked and smokeless tobacco products among males ranged from 0.2% in Ukraine (2010) and Mexico (2009) to 17.9% in Nepal (2011). Poly-tobacco use among males ranged from 0.8% in Mexico (2009) and 0.9% in Argentina (2010) to 11.4% in the United Kingdom and 11.9% in Denmark in 2012. Dual tobacco use was generally higher in South-East Asia; poly-tobacco use was prevalent in Europe as well as in South-East Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first systematic review of the prevalence estimates of dual and poly-tobacco use among adults globally. The results of the current study could significantly help health policy makers to implement effective tobacco control policies.

IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that dual/poly-tobacco use is common in many countries of the world, and highlights the need for in-depth exploration of this field in future studies, especially in high prevalence regions such as South-East Asian and European countries. In light of this, the global tobacco control community and health authorities should also agree upon a consistent operational definition of dual and poly-tobacco use to propel research and improve surveillance of dual/poly-use in health surveys for better communication and understanding of these phenomena.

Prevalence and reasons for use of Heated Tobacco Products (HTP) in Europe: an analysis of Eurobarometer data in 28 countries

BACKGROUND

Heated Tobacco Products (HTP) are a relatively new class of tobacco products, with limited data on usage patterns. We assessed the prevalence and reasons for use among persons aged ≥15 years in 27 European Union member states and the United Kingdom·.

METHODS

The 2020 Eurobarometer (93·2) survey was analysed (n=28,300, aged ≥15). Multi-level regression analyses assessed socio-demographic differences in use while separate analyses investigated reasons for starting to use HTP. Results are presented as adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) and weighted percentages with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI).

FINDINGS

Overall, 6·5% (95% CI 6·1;7·0) of participants had ever used a HTP. 1·3% (1·1%;1·5%) of participants were current users of HTP, and 0·7% (0·6% to 0·9%) daily users. Current and former tobacco smokers were more likely than never tobacco smokers to use HTP (aOR 36·3 (22·9;57·5), and 7·3 (4·3;12·3) respectively. Youth aged 15-24 years of age were substantially more likely to report use, e.g. aOR for ever use=7·77 (6·56;9·21) compared to those aged ≥55 years. 51·3% of ever HTP users reported at least weekly concurrent use of combustible tobacco. Among those who reported ever use of HTP, but not e-cigarettes, the most popular reason for use was the perception that HTP are less harmful than smoking tobacco (39·5%), followed by use by friends (28·4%) and stopping or reducing smoking (28·2%).

INTERPRETATION

Considerable numbers of people in the EU have ever used HTP, although current and daily use remains low. Current use is more common among younger people, and current and former smokers.

FUNDING

None.

The association of migration with multiple tobacco product use among male adults in 15 low- and middle-income countries

Little is known about the impact of migration on tobacco use patterns among men in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to explore the association between migration and tobacco use among men in LMICs. We used multilevel regression models to analyze data of 154 425 men from 15 countries from the latest wave of the Demographic and Health Survey. Results showed higher risk of single tobacco product use [relative risk ratio (RRR) = 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-1.26], but importantly of dual (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.36-1.49) and poly-tobacco use (RR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.57-1.86) among migrant men compared with non-migrants.

Extent of white matter lesion is associated with early hemorrhagic transformation in acute ischemic stroke related to atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) after stroke, related to atrial fibrillation (AF), is a frequent complication, and it can be associated with a delay in the (re-)initiation of oral anticoagulation therapy. We investigated the effect of the presence and severity of white matter disease (WMD) on early HT after stroke related to AF.

METHODS

A consecutive series of patients with recent (<4 weeks) ischemic stroke and AF, treated at the Hyper Acute Stroke Unit of the Imperial College London between 2010 and 2017, were enrolled. Patients with brain MRI performed 24-72 h from stroke onset and not yet started on anticoagulant treatment were included. WMD was graded using the Fazekas score.

RESULTS

Among the 441 patients eligible for the analysis, 91 (20.6%) had any HT. Patients with and without HT showed similar clinical characteristics. Patients with HT had a larger diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) infarct volume compared to patients without HT (p < .001) and significant difference in the distribution of the Fazekas score (p = .001). On multivariable analysis, HT was independently associated with increasing DWI infarct volume (odd ratio (OR), 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.05; p < .001), higher Fazekas scores (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.47-2.57; p < .001) and history of previous intracranial hemorrhage (OR, 4.80; 95% CI, 1.11-20.80; p = .036).

CONCLUSIONS

Presence and severity of WMD is associated with increased risk of development of early HT in patients with stroke and AF. Further evidence is needed to provide reliable radiological predictors of the risk of HT in cardioembolic stroke.

Evaluating the impact of introducing standardized packaging with larger health-warning labels in England: findings from adult smokers within the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys

BACKGROUND

The European (EU) Tobacco Product Directive (TPD) was implemented in May 2016 to regulate the design and labelling of cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco. At the same time, the UK introduced standardized packaging measures, whereas Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Spain did not. This study examines the impact of introducing standardized packaging in England using a quasi-experimental design.

METHODS

Data from adult smokers in Waves 1 (2016; N=9547) and 2 (2018; N=9724) from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation surveys (England) and EUREST-PLUS surveys (Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Spain) were used. Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate changes in pack/brand appeal, salience of health-warning labels (HWLs) and perceived relative harm of different brands in England (where larger HWLs and standardized packaging were implemented), vs. each EU country (where only larger HWLs were implemented).

RESULTS

There was an increase in the percentage of respondents from Germany, Hungary and Poland reporting they did not like the look of the pack (4.7%, 9.6%, and 14.2%, respectively), but the largest increase was in England (41.0%). Moreover, there was a statistically significant increase in the salience of HWLs in Hungary, Poland and Romania (17.0%, 13.9%, and 15.3%, respectively), but the largest increase was in England (27.6%). Few differences were observed in cross-country comparisons of the perceived relative harm of different brands.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that standardized packaging reduces pack appeal and enhances the salience of HWLs over and above the effects of larger HWLs. Findings provide additional evidence and support for incorporating standardized packaging into the EU TPD.

Transitions in product use during the implementation of the European Tobacco Products Directive: cohort study findings from the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys

BACKGROUND

The emergence of new types of tobacco and tobacco-related products on the European Union (EU) market has precipitated the possibility for both poly-tobacco use and transitions between products. In the EU, the regulatory environment has shifted with the implementation of the European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) in May 2016, which may influence consumer transitions between products.

METHODS

The aim of this paper was to examine trends and transitions in tobacco products from 2016 to 2018 -before and after implementation of the TPD in the EU. Data come from Wave 1 (pre-TPD) and Wave 2 (post-TPD) of the EUREST-PLUS ITC Six European Country Survey, a cohort study of adults who at the time of recruitment were smokers from six EU countries- Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Spain. D (N = 3195). Bivariate and logistic regression analyses of weighted data was conducted using SAS-callable SUDAAN.

RESULTS

Overall, among those who smoked factory-made cigarettes (FM) only at Wave 1, 4.3% switched to roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) only. Among RYO only users at Wave 1, 17.0% switched to FM only, however compared to all other countries, respondents from Hungary had the highest percentage of FM only users at Wave 1 switch to RYO only at Wave 2 (18.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The most prominent transition overall was from smoking RYO exclusively at Wave 1 to smoking FM tobacco exclusively at Wave 2, however this varied across countries. As the tobacco control regulatory environment of the EU develops, it is important to continue to monitor transitions between types of products, as well as trends in cessation.

Self-Efficacy and Motivation to Quit of Smokers Seeking to Quit: Quantitative Assessment of Smoking Cessation Mobile Apps

Background

Decreasing trends in the number of individuals accessing face-to-face support are leaving a significant gap in the treatment options for smokers seeking to quit. Face-to-face behavioral support and other interventions attempt to target psychological factors such as the self-efficacy and motivation to quit of smokers, as these factors are associated with an increased likelihood of making quit attempts and successfully quitting. Although digital interventions, such as smoking cessation mobile apps, could provide a promising avenue to bridge the growing treatment gap, little is known about their impact on psychological factors that are vital for smoking cessation.

Objective

This study aims to better understand the possible impact of smoking cessation mobile apps on important factors for successful cessation, such as self-efficacy and motivation to quit. Our aim is to assess the self-efficacy and motivation to quit levels of smokers before and after the use of smoking cessation mobile apps.

Methods

Smokers seeking to quit were recruited to participate in a 4-week app-based study. After screening, eligible participants were asked to use a mobile app (Kwit or Quit Genius). The smoking self-efficacy questionnaire and the motivation to stop smoking scale were used to measure the self-efficacy and motivation to quit, respectively. Both were assessed at baseline (before app use), midstudy (2 weeks after app use), and end-study (4 weeks after app use). Paired sample two-tailed t tests were used to investigate whether differences in self-efficacy and motivation between study time points were statistically significant. Linear regression models investigated associations between change in self-efficacy and change in motivation to quit before and after app use with age, gender, and nicotine dependence.

Results

A total of 116 participants completed the study, with the majority being male (71/116, 61.2%), employed (76/116, 65.6%), single (77/116, 66.4%), and highly educated (87/116, 75.0%). A large proportion of participants had a low to moderate dependence on nicotine (107/116, 92.2%). A statistically significant increase of 5.09 points (95% CI 1.83-8.34) from 37.38 points at baseline in self-efficacy was found at the end of the study. Statistically significant increases were also found for the subcomponents of self-efficacy (intrinsic and extrinsic self-efficacies). Similarly, a statistically significant increase of 0.38 points (95% CI 0.06-0.70) from 5.94 points at baseline in motivation to quit was found at the end of the study. Gender, age, and nicotine dependence were not statistically significantly associated with changes in self-efficacy and motivation to quit.

Conclusions

The assessed mobile apps positively impacted the self-efficacy and motivation to quit of smokers making quit attempts. This has important implications on the possible future use of digitalized interventions and how they could influence important psychological factors for quitting such as self-efficacy and motivation. However, further research is needed to assess whether digital interventions can supplement or replace traditional forms of therapy.

Impact of Gamification on the Self-Efficacy and Motivation to Quit of Smokers: Observational Study of Two Gamified Smoking Cessation Mobile Apps

Background

The proportion of smokers making quit attempts and the proportion of smokers successfully quitting have been decreasing over the past few years. Previous studies have shown that smokers with high self-efficacy and motivation to quit have an increased likelihood of quitting and staying quit. Consequently, further research on strategies that can improve the self-efficacy and motivation of smokers seeking to quit could lead to substantially higher cessation rates. Some studies have found that gamification can positively impact the cognitive components of behavioral change, including self-efficacy and motivation. However, the impact of gamification in the context of smoking cessation and mobile health has been sparsely investigated.

Objective

This study aims to examine the association between perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and frequency of use of gamification features embedded in smoking cessation apps on self-efficacy and motivation to quit smoking.

Methods

Participants were assigned to use 1 of the 2 mobile apps for a duration of 4 weeks. App-based questionnaires were provided to participants before app use and 2 weeks and 4 weeks after they started using the app. Gamification was quantitatively operationalized based on the Cugelman gamification framework and concepts from the technology acceptance model. The mean values of perceived frequency, ease of use, and usefulness of gamification features were calculated at midstudy and end-study. Two linear regression models were used to investigate the impact of gamification on self-efficacy and motivation to quit.

Results

A total of 116 participants completed the study. The mean self-efficacy increased from 37.38 (SD 13.3) to 42.47 (SD 11.5) points and motivation to quit increased from 5.94 (SD 1.4) to 6.32 (SD 1.7) points after app use. Goal setting was perceived to be the most useful gamification feature, whereas sharing was perceived to be the least useful. Participants self-reported that they used the progress dashboards the most often, whereas they used the sharing feature the least often. The average perceived frequency of gamification features was statistically significantly associated with change in self-efficacy (β=3.35; 95% CI 0.31-6.40) and change in motivation to quit (β=.54; 95% CI 0.15-0.94) between baseline and end-study.

Conclusions

Gamification embedded in mobile apps can have positive effects on self-efficacy and motivation to quit smoking. The findings of this study can provide important insights for tobacco control policy makers, mobile app developers, and smokers seeking to quit.