Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence From The Netherlands

Human laboratory models of reward in substance use disorder

Human laboratory models in substance use disorder provide a key intermediary step between highly controlled and mechanistically informative non-human preclinical methods and clinical trials conducted in human populations. Much like preclinical models, the variety of human laboratory methods provide insights into specific features of substance use disorder rather than modelling the diverse causes and consequences simultaneously in a single model. This narrative review provides a discussion of popular models of reward used in human laboratory research on substance use disorder with a focus on the specific contributions that each model has towards informing clinical outcomes (forward translation) and analogs within preclinical models (backward translation). Four core areas of human laboratory research are discussed: drug self-administration, subjective effects, behavioral economics, and cognitive and executive function. Discussion of common measures and models used, the features of substance use disorder that these methods are purported to evaluate, unique issues for measure validity and application, and translational links to preclinical models and special considerations for studies wishing to evaluate homology across species is provided.

Impact of the European Union's menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys

INTRODUCTION

To reduce the appeal of tobacco, the European Union (EU) banned menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes in May 2020. This pre/post-study evaluated the impact of the menthol ban on smoking cessation outcomes among a representative cohort of Dutch smokers.

METHODS

Adult (18+ years) smokers were recruited at wave 1 (pre-ban) of the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Surveys (February-March 2020) and followed post-ban at wave 2 (September-November 2020) and wave 3 (June-July 2021) (N=1326 participated in all three waves). Weighted bivariate, logistic regression and generalised estimating equation model analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Usual menthol use decreased from pre-ban (7.8%) to post-ban (4.0% at wave 2 and 4.4% at wave 3) (p<0.001). Pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of making a post-ban quit attempt than non-menthol smokers (66.9% vs 49.6%, adjusted OR (aOR)=1.89, 95% CI: 1.13 to 3.16). Compared with pre-ban non-menthol smokers, a higher proportion of menthol smokers quit by wave 2 (17.8% vs 10.2%, p=0.025) and by wave 3 (26.1% vs 14.1%, p=0.002), although this was not significant after adjusting for other factors. Female pre-ban menthol smokers had greater odds of quitting by wave 3 than female non-menthol smokers (aOR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.51). Most pre-ban menthol smokers (n=99) switched to non-menthol cigarettes (40.0%) or reported that they continued to smoke menthol cigarettes (33.0%) at wave 3.

CONCLUSIONS

The EU menthol ban was effective in reducing menthol use and in increasing quit attempts and quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers. Impact could be maximised by closing gaps that allow post-ban menthol cigarette use.

E-cigarette Price Impacts legal and Black-Market Cigarette Purchasing Under a Hypothetical Reduced-Nicotine Cigarette Standard

INTRODUCTION

The Tobacco Control Act gives the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authority to establish a reduced-nicotine content standard in combusted cigarettes. This future potential regulation may pose a significant public health benefit; however, black markets may arise to meet demand for normal-nicotine content cigarettes among smokers unwilling to transition to or use an alternative product.

AIMS AND METHODS

We determined the behavioral-economic substitutability of illicit normal-nicotine content cigarettes and e-cigarettes for reduced-nicotine content cigarettes in a hypothetical reduced-nicotine regulatory market. Adult cigarette smokers were recruited online to complete hypothetical cigarette purchasing tasks for usual-brand cigarettes, reduced-nicotine content cigarettes, and illicit normal-nicotine content cigarettes, as well as a cross-commodity task in which reduced-nicotine content cigarettes were available across multiple prices and illicit cigarettes were concurrently available for $12/pack. Participants completed two three-item cross-commodity purchasing tasks in which e-cigarettes were available for $4/pod or $12/pod alongside reduced-nicotine content cigarettes and illicit cigarettes.

RESULTS

Usual-brand cigarette purchasing was greater than illicit normal-nicotine content cigarettes and less than reduced-nicotine content cigarettes. In the cross-commodity purchasing tasks, illicit cigarettes and e-cigarettes both served as economic substitutes for reduced-nicotine content cigarettes; however, when e-cigarettes were available for $4/pod, they were purchased at greater levels than illicit cigarettes and resulted in greater reductions in reduced-nicotine content cigarettes purchasing than when available for $12/pod.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that some smokers are willing to engage in illicit cigarette purchasing in a reduced-nicotine regulatory environment, but e-cigarette availability at lower prices may reduce black-market engagement and shift behavior away from combusted cigarette use.

IMPLICATIONS

E-cigarettes available at low, but not high, prices were stronger substitutes for legal, reduced-nicotine content cigarettes than illegal, normal-nicotine content cigarettes in a hypothetical reduced-nicotine tobacco market. Our findings suggest the availability of relatively inexpensive e-cigarettes may reduce illicit cigarette purchasing and combusted cigarette use under a reduced-nicotine cigarette standard.

Illicit purchasing and use of flavour accessories after the European Union menthol cigarette ban: findings from the 2020-21 ITC Netherlands Surveys

BACKGROUND

The 2020 European Union (EU) menthol cigarette ban increased quitting among pre-ban menthol smokers in the Netherlands, but some reported continuing to smoke menthol cigarettes. This study examined three possible explanations for post-ban menthol use-(i) illicit purchasing, (ii) use of flavour accessories and (iii) use of non-menthol replacement brands marketed for menthol smokers.

METHODS

Data were from the ITC Netherlands Cohort Surveys among adult smokers before the menthol ban (Wave 1: February-March 2020, N = 2067) and after the ban (Wave 2: September-November 2020, N = 1752; Wave 3: June-July 2021, N = 1721). Bivariate, logistic regression and generalized estimating equation model analyses were conducted on weighted data.

RESULTS

Illicit purchasing remained low from pre-ban (2.4%, 95% CI: 1.8-3.2, Wave 1) to post-ban (1.7%, 1.2-2.5%, Wave 3), with no difference between menthol and non-menthol smokers from Wave 1 to Wave 3. About 4.4% of post-ban menthol smokers last purchased their usual brand outside of the EU and 3.6% from the internet; 42.5% of post-ban menthol smokers and 4.4% of smokers overall reported using flavour accessories, with greater odds among those aged 25-39 years vs. 55+ (aOR = 3.16, P = 0.002). Approximately 70% of post-ban smokers who reported using a menthol brand were actually using a non-menthol replacement brand.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no increase in illicit purchasing or of smuggling outside the EU among menthol and non-menthol smokers in the Netherlands 1 year after the EU menthol cigarette ban. Use of flavour accessories and non-menthol replacement brands best explain post-ban menthol use, suggesting the need to ban accessories and ensure industry compliance.

Anhedonia modulates benzodiazepine and opioid demand among persons in treatment for opioid use disorder

Background

Benzodiazepine (BZD) misuse is a significant public health problem, particularly in conjunction with opioid use, due to increased risks of overdose and death. One putative mechanism underlying BZD misuse is affective dysregulation, via exaggerated negative affect (e.g., anxiety, depression, stress-reactivity) and/or impaired positive affect (anhedonia). Similar to other misused substances, BZD consumption is sensitive to price and individual differences. Although purchase tasks and demand curve analysis can shed light on determinants of substance use, few studies have examined BZD demand, nor factors related to demand.

Methods

This ongoing study is examining simulated economic demand for alprazolam (among BZD lifetime misusers based on self-report and DSM-5 diagnosis; n = 23 total; 14 male, 9 female) and each participant's preferred-opioid/route using hypothetical purchase tasks among patients with opioid use disorder (n = 59 total; 38 male, 21 female) who are not clinically stable, i.e., defined as being early in treatment or in treatment longer but with recent substance use. Aims are to determine whether: (1) BZD misusers differ from never-misusers on preferred-opioid economic demand, affective dysregulation (using questionnaire and performance measures), insomnia/behavioral alertness, psychiatric diagnoses or medications, or urinalysis results; and (2) alprazolam demand among BZD misusers is related to affective dysregulation or other measures.

Results

Lifetime BZD misuse is significantly (p < 0.05) related to current major depressive disorder diagnosis, opioid-negative and methadone-negative urinalysis, higher trait anxiety, greater self-reported affective dysregulation, and younger age, but not preferred-opioid demand or insomnia/behavioral alertness. Alprazolam and opioid demand are each significantly positively related to higher anhedonia and, to a lesser extent, depression symptoms but no other measures of negative-affective dysregulation, psychiatric conditions or medications (including opioid agonist therapy or inpatient/outpatient treatment modality), or sleep-related problems.

Conclusion

Anhedonia (positive-affective deficit) robustly predicted increased BZD and opioid demand; these factors could modulate treatment response. Routine assessment and effective treatment of anhedonia in populations with concurrent opioid and sedative use disorder may improve treatment outcomes.

Clinical trial registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03696017, identifier NCT03696017.

Behavioral economic methods predict future COVID-19 vaccination

Increasing vaccine utilization is critical for numerous diseases, including COVID-19, necessitating novel methods to forecast uptake. Behavioral economic methods have been developed as rapid, scalable means of identifying mechanisms of health behavior engagement. However, most research using these procedures is cross-sectional and evaluates prediction of behaviors with already well-established repertories. Evaluation of the validity of hypothetical tasks that measure behaviors not yet experienced is important for the use of these procedures in behavioral health. We use vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic to test whether responses regarding a novel, hypothetical behavior (COVID-19 vaccination) are predictive of later real-world response. Participants (N = 333) completed a behavioral economic hypothetical purchase task to evaluate willingness to receive a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine based on efficacy. This was completed in August 2020, before clinical trial data on COVID-19 vaccines. Participants completed follow-up assessments approximately 1 year later when the COVID-19 vaccines were widely available in June 2021 and November 2021 with vaccination status measured. Prediction of vaccination was made based on data collected in August 2020. Vaccine demand was a significant predictor of vaccination after controlling for other significant predictors including political orientation, delay discounting, history of flu vaccination, and a single-item intent to vaccinate. These findings show predictive validity of a behavioral economic procedure explicitly designed to measure a behavior for which a participant has limited-to-no direct prior experience or exposure. Positive correspondence supports the validity of these hypothetical arrangements for predicting vaccination utilization and advances behavioral economic methods.

Probability Discounting in College Students' Willingness to Isolate During COVID-19: Implications for Behavior Analysis and Public Health

The present study was a preliminary analysis of college students' willingness to self-isolate and socially isolate during the COVID-19 pandemic analyzed through a probability discounting framework. Researchers developed a pandemic likelihood discounting task where willingness to isolate from others was measured in days as a function of the perceived probability of the escalation of a virus to pandemic levels. Experiment 1 was conducted immediately prior to the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring COVID-19 a pandemic and results showed that participants were more willing to self-isolate when the perceived probability of reaching pandemic levels was high and when there was a guarantee that others in the community would do the same. Experiment 2 was conducted with a subset of participants from Experiment 1 with the same discounting task, and results showed that participants were more willing to self-isolate 2 months following the onset of the pandemic, supporting the view that willingness to isolate from others is a dynamic process. Finally, Experiment 3 evaluated willingness to socially distance and introduced a hypothetical timescale to evaluate common trends with the real-world temporal dynamics observed in Experiments 1 and 2. Results showed similar trends in the data, supporting the use of hypothetical scenarios within probability discounting tasks in future behavior analytic research related to public health.

Blood Nicotine Predicts the Behavioral Economic Abuse Liability of Reduced-Nicotine Cigarettes

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking continues to be a major health concern and remains the leading preventable cause of death in the US. Recent efforts have been made to determine the potential health and policy benefits of reducing nicotine in combustible cigarettes. The degree to which changes in blood nicotine relate to measures of the abuse liability of reduced-nicotine cigarettes is unknown. The current study examined the relation between blood nicotine and behavioral economic demand measures of cigarettes differing in nicotine content.

METHODS

Using a within-subject design, participants smoked a single cigarette during each experimental session. Cigarettes included the participant's usual-brand cigarette and SPECTRUM investigational cigarette differing in nicotine level (mg of nicotine to g of tobacco; 15.8 mg/g, 5.2 mg/g, 2.4 mg/g, 1.3 mg/g, and 0.4 mg/g). During each session, blood was collected at multiple timepoints and behavioral economic demand was assessed. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were used to estimate differences in derived intensity (Q0) and change in elasticity (α).

RESULTS

Measures of blood nicotine decreased in an orderly fashion related to nicotine level and significantly predicted change in elasticity (α), but not derived intensity. No differences in demand parameters between the usual brand and 15.8mg/g cigarettes were observed. However, α was significantly higher (lower valuation) for 0.4mg/g than 15.8mg/g cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

The lowest nicotine level (0.4mg/g) corresponded with the lowest abuse liability (α) compared to the full-strength control (15.8mg/g), with the 1.3mg/g level also resulting in low abuse liability.

IMPLICATIONS

This is the first study examining the relative contributions of nicotine content in cigarettes and blood nicotine levels on the behavioral economic demand abuse liability of cigarettes ranging in nicotine content. Our results suggest blood nicotine and nicotine content both predict behavioral economic demand abuse liability. In addition, our results suggest a nicotine content of 1.3mg/g or lower may be effective at reducing cigarette uptake among first-time (naïve) smokers. Our results largely conform to previous findings suggesting a very low nicotine content cigarette maintains lower abuse liability than full-strength cigarettes.

Demand for Factory-Made Cigarettes and Roll-Your-Own Tobacco and Differences Between Age and Socioeconomic Groups: Findings From the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Survey

INTRODUCTION

Macroeconomic studies have shown that young individuals who smoke, and have a low socioeconomic status respond more strongly to price increases. Most of this evidence stems from research on factory-made (FM) cigarettes. With the rising popularity of roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, there is a need for studies on cigarette demand that distinguish between both.

AIMS AND METHODS

This study examined whether individual demand differed for FM and RYO tobacco, and across age, and socioeconomic (income and education) groups. Purchase tasks for FM and RYO cigarettes were included in the 2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey. Adults who smoke daily (n = 1620) stated how many cigarettes they would smoke in 24 hours across eight prices. Four demand indices were derived: intensity (consumption at zero costs), alpha (rate of change in elasticity), Pmax (turning point elasticity), and breakpoint (lowest price where consumption equals zero). The indices were tested for subgroup differences.

RESULTS

Individuals who smoke RYO tobacco indicated higher intensity, and greater alpha than individuals who smoke FM cigarettes. Participants aged 25-39 had lower Pmax, and 18-24 year olds displayed higher breakpoints. Participants with low income displayed higher intensity, and lower Pmax than other income groups. No associations were found with education.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals who smoke RYO tobacco indicated higher price sensitivity than those smoking FM cigarettes, supporting the need to harmonize tobacco taxation. Taxation may be especially beneficial to reducing consumption among individuals with a low income or smoke RYO tobacco. Substantially higher prices are needed in the Netherlands to achieve the desired results.

IMPLICATIONS

Individuals who smoke daily were willing to pay substantially higher prices than the current market prices, indicating the room and need for much higher taxation levels. Demand for RYO tobacco was more sensitive to price changes than demand for FM cigarettes. Taxation should be raised at equivalent rates for FM and RYO cigarettes. Taxation appears to be especially effective in reducing consumption among people who smoke RYO tobacco and low-income individuals. It remains important to combine increased taxation with other tobacco control measures.

Responses to potential nicotine vaping product flavor restrictions among regular vapers using non-tobacco flavors: Findings from the 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England and the United States

INTRODUCTION

Some jurisdictions have implemented nicotine vaping product (NVP) flavor restrictions because of concerns about rising adolescent use. However, little is known how these restrictions may impact adult vapers. This study describes the level of support and predictive behavioral responses to a hypothetical NVP ban on non-tobacco flavors among regular adult vapers who only use flavors that would be banned.

METHODS

Data came from 851 regular vapers (all current or ex-smokers) participating in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England, and the United States (US). A random sample of respondents in each country received and completed the questions about flavor bans: (1) do you support or oppose a ban on all non-tobacco flavors; and (2) what would you do if all flavors were banned, with the exception of tobacco in the US, and tobacco and menthol in Canada and England. Those who used tobacco-flavored or unflavored NVPs were excluded from all analyses, and additionally, vapers of menthol flavor in Canada and England were excluded from Aim 2.

RESULTS

Overall, 53.6% of vapers were strongly opposed to flavor bans, 28.2% were opposed, 9.3% were in support, 3.6% were in strong support, and 5.2% did not know. Predicted behavioral responses were: 28.8% would continue vaping an available flavor, 28.3% would find a way to get their banned flavor(s), 17.1% would stop vaping and smoke instead, 12.9% said that they would stop vaping and not smoke, and 12.9% do not know what they would do. Responses to a potential flavor ban largely varied by smoking and vaping status, and by the level of support of a flavor restriction policy.

CONCLUSIONS

At this time, it is not clear what net population-level consequences would occur if non-tobacco flavored NVPs were prohibited. While a majority of vapers in this study opposed this policy, and many vapers would not be willing to switch to available flavors, there was considerable variability in predicted behavioral responses.

Effects of episodic future thinking on reinforcement pathology during smoking cessation treatment among individuals with substance use disorders

RATIONALE

Reinforcer pathology (RP) is a theoretical model based on two processes: delay discounting (DD) and drug demand. Given that RP has been shown to have a predictive value on smoking behaviors, several studies have explored which interventions can reduce RP. Consistent with the RP framework, episodic future thinking (EFT) has shown effects on treatment outcomes and RP processes. The vast majority of studies that assess the effects of EFT on RP consist of experimental studies, and no previous research has tested these effects in a clinical sample of smokers.

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this study was to assess the effects of EFT on RP throughout the course of a smoking cessation intervention in smokers with substance use disorders (SUDs).

METHODS

Participants were randomized to cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) + EFT (n = 39) or CBT + EFT + contingency management (n = 33). Cotinine, frequency of EFT practices, cigarette purchase task (CPT), and DD were evaluated in treatment sessions. Mixed-effects model repeated measures analysis was used to explore DD and CPT in-treatment changes as a function of EFT practices and cotinine levels.

RESULTS

Greater practice of the EFT component significantly reduced cigarette demand (p < .020) as well as DD (p = .003). Additionally, a greater reduction in cotinine levels coupled with greater EFT practice led to a greater decrease in cigarette demand (p < .014).

CONCLUSIONS

EFT reduced the two facets of RP in treatment-seeking smokers with SUDs.

Responses to reduced nicotine cigarette marketing features: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the literature regarding responses to commercial and public health marketing features for reduced nicotine cigarettes (RNCs) to anticipate potential industry and regulatory actions should an RNC product standard be issued.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed for English-language articles using several keywords for reduced nicotine products, cigarettes and marketing features published through 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Of 4092 records, 26 studies were retained for review that met criteria focusing on responses to RNC marketing features.

DATA EXTRACTION

Search terms created by the research team were used for review and included independent extraction and coding by two reviewers. Coding was categorised using study design terminology, commercial and public health features in tobacco regulatory science, and their association with individual responses outlined by several message processing outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Most studies focused on current cigarette smokers and were cross-sectional. Reactions to RNCs and attitudes and beliefs were the most common outcomes measured. For commercial features, articles generally studied RNC advertisements, products and/or descriptors. For public health features, articles studied counter-messaging (eg, warning labels) or general descriptors about nicotine or a reduced nicotine product standard. Commercial features were generally associated with favourable responses. Public health features offset favourable responses across most outcomes, though their efficacy was mixed. Contrasts in results by smoking status are discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

Commercial marketing of RNCs is appealing and may need stronger regulations or communication campaigns to accurately convey risks. Opportunities exist for future research within tobacco regulatory science.

Decreased cocaine demand following contingency management treatment

A hypothetical cocaine purchasing task (CocPT) was used to assess changes in cocaine demand in the context of contingency management (CM) treatment for cocaine use disorder (CUD). Participants (N = 89) were treatment-seeking individuals with CUD receiving 4 weeks of abstinence-based, high-magnitude CM. Treatment response (vs. non-response) was operationally defined as the submission of 6 consecutive cocaine-negative urine samples across two weeks. The CPT was assessed at baseline, week 2, and week 5. Demand data were well described by the exponentiated demand model, and baseline demand indices (Q0, Pmax, breakpoint, essential value) were significantly associated with self-report measures of cocaine use. The probability of being a zero-responder reporting zero cocaine consumption at all prices significantly increased over the course of treatment, and was greater among treatment responders vs. non-responders. Among non-zero demand data, decreases in Omax, Pmax, breakpoint, and essential value were observed over the course of CM treatment, favoring responders. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess change in cocaine demand in the context of CM treatment targeting cocaine abstinence. Our results support the utility of cocaine demand as a measure for both identifying individuals with greater treatment need and tracking relapse risk over the course of treatment.

Regulatory approaches and implementation of minimally addictive combusted products

INTRODUCTION

A joint meeting was held by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Convention Secretariat of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control to examine the potential effects of a regulatory policy to reduce nicotine in cigarettes to minimally addictive levels. This paper reviews the feasibility of and approaches to implementing a nicotine product standard.

METHODS

Prior WHO reports on this topic were consulted and a systematic review of the scientific literature was conducted. The paper was reviewed by the participants at the aforementioned meeting and their feedback was incorporated.

RESULTS

The nicotine dose most likely to consistently reduce smoking behavior and dependence is < 0.4 mg nicotine/g tobacco. An immediate rather than a gradual nicotine reduction approach appears to be more beneficial. Smokers are likely to seek nicotine from alternate sources (e.g., nicotine replacement therapies, e-cigarettes) or potentially, the illegal market. As such, the availability of alternative products, as well as strong policies against illegal markets, can potentially mitigate unintended consequences. An effective reduced nicotine regulation must be imbedded in a comprehensive and strong tobacco control program that includes public education and surveillance. Barriers and challenges to implementing a nicotine product standard exist, particularly in low-capacity countries.

CONCLUSION

Not all countries will have the capacity to implement a regulation to reduce nicotine in cigarettes (and preferably other combusted tobacco products) to minimally addictive levels. However, for the countries that choose to implement it, such a policy could potentially dramatically reduce the burden of tobacco use.

Behavioral economic demand in opioid treatment: Predictive validity of hypothetical purchase tasks for heroin, cocaine, and benzodiazepines

BACKGROUND

Behavioral economics provides a framework in which to understand choice and motivation in the field of substance use disorders. Hypothetical purchase tasks (HPT), which indicate the amount or probability of purchasing substances at different prices, have been suggested as a clinical tool that can help predict future substance use and identify targets for intervention.

METHODS

Hypothetical demand for heroin, cocaine, and benzodiazepines was assessed at baseline and after six-months in 52 opioid-agonist treatment patients. The results were analyzed using a novel exponential demand equation (normalized zero-bounded exponential model [ZBEn]) that uses a log-like transform that accommodates zero consumption values.

RESULTS

Demand for these drugs was well described by the ZBEn model. After six months, demand intensity for heroin was decreased and demand metrics for cocaine and benzodiazepines increased. Multiple demand curve indices at baseline predicted the percentage of drug-positive urinalysis results at follow-up, even after controlling for covariates. Additionally, participants were divided into High and Low baseline demand groups for each drug based on demand indices. Participants with High demand at baseline for 8 out of 9 groups had significantly more drug-positive urine samples in the subsequent 6-month period.

CONCLUSIONS

This report provides evidence that demand assessment is predictive of future substance use and could help guide treatment planning at intake. These results also demonstrated that the ZBEn model provides good fits to consumption data and allows for sensitive statistical analyses.

E-Cigarette Demand: Impact of Commodity Definitions and Test-Retest Reliability

INTRODUCTION

Behavioral economic demand provides a multidimensional understanding of reinforcement. Commodity purchase tasks are an efficient method for measuring demand in human participants. One challenge in translating these procedures to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS or e-cigarettes) is defining commodity units given the lack of standardization in the e-cigarette marketplace.

AIMS AND METHODS

The purpose of this study was to directly compare methods of operationalizinge-cigarette purchases, puffs, cartridges, and mLs liquid, using a within-subject design. Participants (N = 132) reporting past week e-cigarette use were recruited using crowdsourcing. Purchase tasks were completed operationalizing e-cigarette units as puffs or cartridges at baseline and puffs or mLs liquid at a 3-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Bivariate associations supported convergent and discriminant validity with the largest effect size correlations for intensity and elasticity observed for the puff version. Interaction models suggested that product preferences moderated the relationship between time-to-first use and cartridge demand with larger effect size correlations among persons reporting a preference for JUULs, but weaker relationships among persons reporting other device preferences. Puff intensity (rxx = .61) and elasticity (rxx = .62) showed good test-retest reliability for participants reporting stable consumption, but poor test-retest reliability for individuals with changed consumption levels (intensity rxx = -.08; elasticity rxx = -.10).

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the relevance of commodity definitions in the e-cigarette purchase task. Puffs as an experimental commodity may provide flexibility for studying e-cigarette demand in heterogenous or unknown populations, whereas more tailored or personalized approaches like cartridge or mL-based tasks will likely be helpful when studying known subgroups.

IMPLICATIONS

The commodity purchase task procedure is widely used for understanding cigarette and e-cigarette demand in nicotine dependence research. This study evaluates the importance of operational definitions of e-cigarette commodities in the purchase task (ie, puffs, cartridges, or mLs liquid). Puffs may provide a more flexible commodity unit when evaluating e-cigarette demand in general or heterogenous populations, whereas device-specific units may prove more valuable when studying populations with consistent and known product use.

Purchase task sensitivity to drug and nondrug reinforcers in opioid-agonist treatment patients

The behavioral economics of substance abuse has been increasingly recognized as a method of determining the value of abused substances for individuals who use those substances. It has been hypothesized that such analyses could serve as a clinical tool and that demand functions can be targeted predictors for the level of intervention necessary. This study evaluated the sensitivity of a demand task in 2 patient groups in a medication assisted treatment program (methadone maintenance), those who had used opioids in the last 2 months and those who had not used opioids in at least 18 months. Demand for 7 drugs and a control was assessed using hypothetical purchase tasks. Participants maintaining long-term abstinence had significantly higher α (sensitivity to price) and lower Q₀ (intensity of demand) for heroin than participants who had recently used opioids. Further research is necessary to illustrate if treatment is responsible for this reduction in demand. If so, demand analyses may provide clinical utility as an aid for treatment planning or as a target for treatment.

Quantifying the Impact of Public Perceptions on Vaccine Acceptance Using Behavioral Economics

This study was conducted to evaluate the impact of public perceptions of vaccine safety and efficacy on intent to seek COVID-19 vaccination using hypothetical vaccine acceptance scenarios. The behavioral economic methodology could be used to inform future public health vaccination campaigns designed to influence public perceptions and improve public acceptance of the vaccine. In June 2020, 534 respondents completed online validated behavioral economic procedures adapted to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine demand in relation to a hypothetical development process and efficacy. An exponential demand function was used to describe the proportion of participants accepting the vaccine at each efficacy. Linear mixed effect models evaluated development process and individual characteristic effects on minimum required vaccine efficacy required for vaccine acceptance. The rapid development process scenario increased the rate of decline in acceptance with reductions in efficacy. At 50% efficacy, 68.8% of respondents would seek the standard vaccine, and 58.8% would seek the rapid developed vaccine. Rapid vaccine development increased the minimum required efficacy for vaccine acceptance by over 9 percentage points, γ = 9.36, p < 0.001. Past-3-year flu vaccination, γ = −23.00, p < 0.001, and male respondents, γ = −4.98, p = 0.037, accepted lower efficacy. Respondents reporting greater conspiracy beliefs, γ = 0.39, p < 0.001, and political conservatism, γ = 0.32, p < 0.001, required higher efficacy. Male, γ = −4.43, p = 0.013, and more conservative, γ = −0.09, p = 0.039, respondents showed smaller changes in minimum required efficacy by development process. Information on the vaccine development process, vaccine efficacy, and individual differences impact the proportion of respondents reporting COVID-19 vaccination intentions. Behavioral economics provides an empirical method to estimate vaccine demand to target subpopulations resistant to vaccination.

Behavioral economic measurement of cigarette demand: A descriptive review of published approaches to the cigarette purchase task

The cigarette purchase task (CPT) is a behavioral economic method for assessing demand for cigarettes. Growing interest in behavioral correlates of tobacco use in clinical and general populations as well as empirical efforts to inform policy has seen an increase in published articles employing the CPT. Accordingly, an examination of the published methods and procedures for obtaining these behavioral economic metrics is timely. The purpose of this investigation was to provide a review of published approaches to using the CPT. We searched specific Boolean operators (["behavioral economic" AND "purchase task"] OR ["demand" AND "cigarette"]) and identified 49 empirical articles published through the year 2018 that reported administering a CPT. Articles were coded for participant characteristics (e.g., sample size, population type, age), CPT task structure (e.g., price framing, number and sequence of prices; vignettes, contextual factors), and data analytic approach (e.g., method of generating indices of cigarette demand). Results of this review indicate no standard approach to administering the CPT and underscore the need for replicability of these behavioral economic measures for the purpose of guiding clinical and policy decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Agent-based Modeling in Tobacco Regulatory Science: Exploring 'What if' in Waterpipe Smoking

Objectives

Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) is an emerging public health crisis, particularly among youth and young adults. Different from the use of other tobacco products and e-cigarettes, WTS tends to be a social activity occurring among friends or persons associated with social networks. In this paper, we review a potential strategy for WTS-related research.

Methods

As a bottom-up computational model, agent-based modeling (ABM) can simulate the actions and interactions of agents, as well as the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments, to gain an understanding of the functioning of a system. ABM is particularly useful for incorporating the influence of social networks in WTS, and capturing people's space-time activity and the spatial distribution of WTS venues.

Results

Comprehensive knowledge of WTS-related behaviors at the individual level is needed to take advantage of ABM and use it to examine policies such as the interaction between WTS and cigarette smoking and the effect of flavors used in waterpipe tobacco. Longitudinal and WTS-specific surveys and laboratory experiments are particularly helpful to understand WTS basic mechanisms and elicit individual preferences, respectively.

Conclusions

We argue that the uniqueness of WTS makes ABM a promising tool to be used in WTS-related research, as well as understanding use of other tobacco products.

Designing an Optimum Fiscal Policy for Tobacco to Maximise the Tax Revenue, Social Savings and the Net Monetary Benefits in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Fiscal policy targeting tobacco control is identified as the most effective strategy for rapid control of tobacco use. An optimum fiscal policy to estimate the percentage taxation that will maximise the government tax revenue, social savings and the net monetary benefit has not been empirically designed before in Sri Lanka.

METHODS

A model was developed using Microsoft Excel 2016, utilizing up-to-date published evidence on the cigarette sales, current fiscal policy, social cost of tobacco use, consumer response and the price elasticity of cigarettes. Univariate estimates on the expected revenue from tobacco tax, average annual social savings and the net monetary benefit were predicted for different levels of tobacco taxation. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed covering all possibilities. The percentage taxation maximizing the government tax revenue and the net monetary benefit were identified.

RESULTS

It was estimated that a further 30% tax increase from the 2019 baseline will generate approximately LKR 3544 million per year of additional tax revenue for the government while saving LKR 28 069 million per annum as social savings. A fiscal elevation of 50% will produce identical annual tax revenue to that of 2018, while securing a social saving of more than LKR 47 600 million per annum. The maximum net monetary benefit is achievable at an overnight tax increase of 90% from the baseline, however with a short-term compromise in tax revenue.

CONCLUSION

The well-defined thresholds take tobacco taxation advocacy in Sri Lanka a step forward and will assist the government in taking an informed decision on its fiscal policy for cigarettes.

Nicotine Reduction in Cigarettes: Literature Review and Gap Analysis

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes to "minimally or non-addictive levels." However, important research gaps remain, and the FDA must determine when the available research is sufficient to support moving forward.

METHODS

The authors conducted a systematic review of research articles in PubMed relating to nicotine reduction. Building on a review of risk assessment best practices, the authors also developed a risk assessment framework for tobacco regulation and used it to guide a gap analysis of nicotine reduction research.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 78 articles. The majority examined either nicotine dependence on very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) or markers of potential health effects of using VLNCs. One-third of the identified articles reported results from four large randomized controlled trials (RCTs). While these studies report promising results and suggest that a nicotine reduction rule would be a powerful tool to reduce cigarette smoking, our gap analysis suggests that there is a need for studies that better reflect the use and availability of a wide range of tobacco/nicotine products and the potential for dual- or multi-product use.

CONCLUSION

The current body of research on nicotine reduction is weighted towards RCTs, which is appropriate for a policy that has not yet been implemented anywhere in the world. The FDA must consider a wide range of factors that may impact a product standard's public health impact, including those difficult to assess in RCTs, such as a nicotine reduction rule's impact on smoking initiation and relapse.

IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review presents a gap analysis based on a risk assessment framework to help identify remaining research priorities to inform FDA's potential product standard to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes. Quickly addressing those gaps would support the FDA's effort to develop a nicotine reduction product standard that will be effective and withstand legal challenges.

The influence of sex and estrous cyclicity on cocaine and remifentanil demand in rats

The application of behavioral economic demand theory in addiction science has proved useful for evaluating individual characteristics underlying abuse liability. Two factors that have received comparably little attention within this literature are sex and gonadal hormones. We determined cocaine and remifentanil demand in male and female rats using a within‐session procedure. Cocaine and remifentanil demand were evaluated for 15 consecutive days using a balanced, crossover design that randomized drug order. This design allowed for the evaluation of temporal and exposure effects on two independent dimensions of demand, unconstrained demand (Q₀) and demand elasticity (α). Estrous cyclicity was tracked to determine the contribution of phase to demand. No overall sex differences were observed. Increased unconstrained demand for cocaine and remifentanil was observed in females during periods in which estrogen was high (eg, estrus phase). Unconstrained remifentanil demand escalated over the 15‐day testing period, but escalation was not observed for cocaine or for demand elasticity. A significant exposure effect was also observed in which greater prior remifentanil intake increased unconstrained cocaine demand and reduced cocaine demand elasticity. These effects were directionally specific as no significant effects of prior cocaine exposure were observed on remifentanil demand measures. These data suggest that unconstrained demand and demand elasticity do not differ between male and female subjects; however, that unconstrained demand is associated with estrous cyclicity. These findings also suggest that opioid exposure enhances subsequent demand for psychomotor stimulants, which may be important when considering recent increases in nonmedical prescription opioid use in the United States.

Behavioral economic demand assessments in the addictions

Behavioral economics in the addictions is the application of both economics and psychology to study multifaceted components of substance use decision-making behavior. One such component is demand: the relative value of a substance for a user (i.e., the association between drug use and cost). The degree to which a user values a substance can be measured via performance on hypothetical purchase tasks which replicate drug purchase and consumption. Demand has been evaluated across substances, including alcohol, marijuana, tobacco, and alternative tobacco products. Recent advances in the study of demand have greatly improved the assessment of drug value, including application to novel products, selection of optimal task unit, assessment of demand in naïve or potential future users, and the importance of instructional set specificity.

Behavioral economic tobacco demand in relation to cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence: a meta-analysis of cross-sectional relationships

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A cigarette purchase task (CPT) aims to characterize individual variation in the reinforcing value of tobacco. This meta-analysis estimated the associations between cigarette demand, tobacco consumption and nicotine dependence using this task.

DESIGN

A meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies identified by PubMed and PsycINFO databases was conducted. Fixed- and random-effects models were used. The study also examined the model used to derive elasticity of demand (exponential or exponentiated) as a potential moderator. Publication bias was assessed using 'fail-safe N', Begg-Mazumdar test, Egger's test, Tweedie's trim-and-fill approach and meta-regression of publication year with effect size.

SETTING

Studies from any setting that reported coefficient correlations on the tested associations.

PARTICIPANTS

Daily cigarette users (i.e. 5 to 38 cigarettes per day; n = 7649).

MEASUREMENTS

Cigarette consumption, nicotine dependence and five tobacco demand indicators: intensity (i.e. consumption at no cost), elasticity (i.e. sensitivity to rises in costs), Omax (maximum expenditure), Pmax (i.e. price at which consumption becomes elastic) and breakpoint (i.e. price at which consumption ceases).

FINDINGS

Twenty-three studies met inclusion criteria. All the CPT indices were significantly correlated with smoking behavior (rs = 0.044-0.572, Ps = 0.012-10-8 ). Medium-to-large effect size associations were present for intensity, Omax, and elasticity, whereas small effects were obtained for breakpoint and Pmax . Evidence of a moderating effect of the different elasticity modeling approaches was not present. There was limited evidence of publication bias.

CONCLUSIONS

All five demand indices derived from the cigarette purchase task by (CPT) were robustly associated with cigarette consumption and tobacco dependence. Of the demand indices, maximum expenditure, intensity and elasticity exhibited the largest magnitude associations.

The impact of vaping and regulatory environment on cigarette demand: behavioral economic perspective across four countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Government regulations of nicotine vaping products (NVP) have evolved rapidly during the past decade. The impact of NVP regulatory environment and vaping on cigarette demand is unknown. The current study aims to investigate whether or not respondents' reported cigarette demand, as measured by a hypothetical cigarette purchase task, varies with (1) smoking status, (2) vaping status or (3) NVP regulatory environment (country used as proxy).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey data from wave 1 of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey (2016).

SETTING

Australia, Canada, England and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 10 316 adult smokers.

MEASUREMENTS

A hypothetical purchase task asked smokers to estimate how many cigarettes they would purchase for consumption in a single day across multiple cigarette prices. Responses were used to derive measures of cigarette demand. Overall sensitivity of cigarette consumption to price increases was quantified to index cigarette demand elasticity, whereas estimated consumption when cigarettes are free was used to index cigarette demand intensity.

FINDINGS

A majority of the non-daily smokers had previously smoked daily (72.3%); daily vapers were more likely to be former daily smokers (89.9%) compared to non-daily vapers (70.1%) and non-vapers (69.2%) (P < 0.001). The smoking status × vaping status interaction was significant for cigarette demand intensity (F = 4.93; P = 0.007) and elasticity (F = 7.30; P = 0.001): among non-daily smokers, vapers reported greater intensity but lower elasticity (i.e. greater demand) relative to non-vapers (Ps < 0.05). Among daily smokers, daily vapers reported greater intensity relative to non-vapers (P = 0.005), but vaping status did not impact elasticity (Ps > 0.38). Intensity was higher in Australia compared with all other countries (Ps < 0.001), but elasticity did not vary by country (F = 2.15; P = 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

In a hypothetical purchase task, non-daily smokers showed lower price elasticity if they used e-cigarettes than if they did not, while there was no clear difference in elasticity between e-cigarette users and non-users among daily smokers or according to regulatory environment of their country with regard to e-cigarettes.

Cannabis use among a nationally representative cross-sectional sample of smokers and non-smokers in the Netherlands: results from the 2015 ITC Netherlands Gold Magic Survey

OBJECTIVES

Existing evidence shows that co-occurring use of tobacco and cannabis is widespread. Patterns of co-use of tobacco and cannabis may change as more jurisdictions legalise medicinal and/or recreational cannabis sales. This analysis examined predictors of current cannabis use and characterised methods of consumption among smokers and non-smokers in a context where cannabis use is legal.

SETTING

The 2015 International Tobacco Control Netherlands-Gold Magic Survey conducted between July and August 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants (n=1599; 1003 current smokers, 283 former smokers and 390 non-smokers) were asked to report their current (past 30-day) use of cigarettes and cannabis. Cigarette smokers reported whether they primarily used factory made of roll-your-own cigarettes. Those who reported any cannabis use in the last 30 days were asked about forms of cannabis used. X2and logistic regression analyses were used to assess relationships among combustible tobacco and cannabis use.

RESULTS

Past 30-day cannabis use was somewhat higher among current tobacco (or cigarette) smokers (n=57/987=5.8%) than among former or never smokers (n=10/288=3.5% and n=6/316=1.9%, respectively). Joints were the most commonly used form of cannabis use for both current cigarette smokers (96.9%) and non-smokers (76.5%). Among those who smoked cannabis joints, 95% current smokers and 67% of non-smokers reported that they 'always' roll cannabis with tobacco.

CONCLUSIONS

In this Netherlands-based sample, most cannabis was reported to be consumed via smoking joints, most often mixed with tobacco. This behaviour may present unique health concerns for non-cigarette smoking cannabis users, since tobacco use could lead to nicotine dependence. Moreover, many non-cigarette smoking cannabis users appear to be misclassified as to their actual tobacco/nicotine exposure.