Indirect Protection by Reducing Transmission: Ending the Pandemic With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Vaccination

Self-reported side effects of COVID-19 vaccines among health professions students in India

Studies focusing on the safety and common side effects of vaccines play a crucial role in enhancing public acceptance of vaccination. Research is scarce regarding the usage of COVID-19 vaccines and the side effects experienced by health professions students in India and other countries. This study aimed to document self-reported side effects associated with COVID-19 vaccination among medical and dental students of six medical and dental colleges and teaching hospitals in four states (Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and West Bengal) of India. A cross-sectional survey using purposive sampling of medical and dental students was conducted from 26 April to 26 May 2021. Data was collected using a Google Forms questionnaire capturing information regarding receiving COVID-19 vaccines, side effects and symptoms, onset and duration of symptoms, use of treatment to alleviate symptoms, awareness of haematologic risks associated with vaccination, and side effects from previous (non-COVID-19) vaccinations. The majority (94.5%) of participants received both doses of the Covishield/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Among participants (n = 492), 45.3% (n = 223) reported one or more side effects. The most frequently reported side effects were soreness of the injected arm (80.3%), tiredness (78.5%), fever (71.3%), headache (64.1%), and hypersomnia (58.7%). The two most common severe symptoms were fever (14.8%) and headache (13%). Most side effects appeared on the day of vaccination: soreness of the injection site (57%), fever (43.1%), and tiredness (42.6%). Most reported symptoms persisted for one to three days-soreness of the injection site (53%), fever (47.1%), and headache (42.6%). Logistic regression showed that women were almost 85% less likely to report side effects. The study's findings corroborate the safety of the Covishield/AstraZeneca vaccine's first dose, evidenced by the relatively minor and transient nature of the side effects. However, the study underscores the necessity for ongoing research to assess the long-term impacts of COVID-19 vaccines, especially in the context of booster doses, thereby contributing to the global understanding of vaccine safety and efficacy.

Maternal hybrid immunity and risk of infant COVID-19 hospitalizations: national case-control study in Israel

Hybrid immunity, acquired through vaccination followed or preceded by a COVID-19 infection, elicits robust antibody augmentation. We hypothesize that maternal hybrid immunity will provide greater infant protection than other forms of COVID-19 immunity in the first 6 months of life. We conducted a case-control study in Israel, enrolling 661 infants up to 6 months of age, hospitalized with COVID-19 (cases) and 59,460 age-matched non-hospitalized infants (controls) between August 24, 2021, and March 15, 2022. Infants were grouped by maternal immunity status at delivery: Naïve (never vaccinated or tested positive, reference group), Hybrid-immunity (vaccinated and tested positive), Natural-immunity (tested positive before or during the study period), Full-vaccination (two-shot regimen plus 1 booster), and Partial-vaccination (less than full three shot regimen). Applying Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios, which was then converted to percent vaccine effectiveness, and using the Naïve group as the reference, maternal hybrid-immunity provided the highest protection (84% [95% CI 75-90]), followed by full-vaccination (66% [95% CI 56-74]), natural-immunity (56% [95% CI 39-68]), and partial-vaccination (29% [95% CI 15-41]). Maternal hybrid-immunity was associated with a reduced risk of infant hospitalization for Covid-19, as compared to natural-immunity, regardless of exposure timing or sequence. These findings emphasize the benefits of vaccinating previously infected individuals during pregnancy to reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations in early infancy.

Measures to Increase Immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: A Narrative Review

Purpose of review: To review the data on the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines, administered by different strategies, in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs). Recent findings: COVID-19 booster vaccines were given to SOTRs as a widespread practice in many transplant centers, mostly as the third and/or fourth dose in an extended vaccine series, with a significantly improved humoral response compared with the initial two-dose scheme. However, one-third of SOTRs remained unresponsive, despite these boosters. Next steps: Vaccination with standard dosing remains the most feasible strategy for attaining protection against COVID-19. Additional booster doses and temporarily holding or reducing mycophenolate mofetil/mycophenolic acid may provide immunogenicity to vaccines, according to recent studies demonstrating some efficacy with these measures. Preexposure prophylaxis with monoclonal antibodies showed benefit in immunocompromised patients but is no longer recommended by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) due to diminished efficacy against Omicron and recent variants. Screening for the presence and titers of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in SOTRs is not recommended in most clinical settings. T cell-based techniques are needed to evaluate vaccine efficacy and risk of infection. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, new vaccines based on conservative protein component/complexes of the COVID virus, in addition to its spike protein, are warranted to offer prolonged protection.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era: The Vaccine Effectiveness, Networking, and Universal Safety (VENUS) study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination on reducing household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among common household types in Japan during the Omicron variant wave.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted using vaccination records, COVID-19 infection data, and resident registry data from two Japanese municipalities. Households that experienced their first COVID-19 case between January and April 2022 were categorized into two groups according to the presence/absence of children aged ≤11 years. We constructed multivariable logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for household transmission according to the vaccination statuses of primary cases and household contacts.

RESULTS

We analyzed 7326 households with 17,586 contacts. In all households, the OR for household transmission was <0.6 (P <0.001) when the primary case and/or contact were vaccinated. In households with children aged ≤11 years, the OR was 0.71 (P <0.001) when only the contact was vaccinated. In households with all members aged ≥12 years, the OR was <0.5 (P <0.001) when the primary case and/or contact were vaccinated.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccination effectively reduced household transmission in Japan during the Omicron variant wave.

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations in Mumbai, India, between 28 December 2020 and 30 August 2021

The emergence and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants that could compromise vaccine efficacy (VE) with re-infections in immunized individuals have necessitated continuous surveillance of VE. Here, the occurrence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the context of vaccination during the second wave of infection in Mumbai were evaluated. RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values of the open reading frame (ORF)/envelope (E)/nucleocapsid (N) genes obtained from a total of 42415 samples, comprising unvaccinated (96.88%) and vaccinated cases (3.12%) were analyzed between December 28, 2020, and August 30, 2021. A lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated cases (5.07%) compared to partially vaccinated cases (6.5%) and unvaccinated cases (13.453%) was recorded. VE was significant after the first dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.003429, and E/N gene p-value = 0.000866). Furthermore, VE was observed to be significant when the post-immunization (first dose) period was stratified to within 30 days (ORF gene p-value = 0.0094 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0023) and to 60 days following the second dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.0238). Also, significantly higher efficacy was observed within individuals receiving two doses compared to a single dose (ORF gene p-value = 0.0132 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0387). The emergence of breakthrough infections was also evident (odds ratio= 0.34; 95% confidence interval= 0.27-0.43). Interestingly, viral loads trended towards being higher in some groups of partially vaccinated individuals compared to completely vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Finally, our results delineated a significantly higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in males, asymptomatic individuals, individuals with comorbidities, and those who were unvaccinated.

Cellular and molecular biomarkers of long COVID: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Long-COVID (LC) encompasses diverse symptoms lasting months after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection. Symptoms can be debilitating and affect the quality of life of individuals with LC and their families. Although the symptoms of LC are well described, the aetiology of LC remains unclear, and consequently, patients may be underdiagnosed. Identification of LC specific biomarkers is therefore paramount for the diagnosis and clinical management of the syndrome. This scoping review describes the molecular and cellular biomarkers that have been identified to date with potential use for diagnosis or prediction of LC.

METHODS

This review was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Methodology for Scoping Reviews. A search was executed in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, as well as in the grey literature for original studies, published until October 5th, 2022, reporting biomarkers identified in participants with LC symptoms (from all ages, ethnicities, and sex), with a previous infection of SARS-CoV-2. Non-English studies, cross-sectional studies, studies without a control group, and pre-prints were excluded. Two reviewers independently evaluated the studies, extracted population data and associated biomarkers.

FINDINGS

23 cohort studies were identified, involving 2163 LC patients [median age 51.8 years, predominantly female sex (61.10%), white (75%), and non-vaccinated (99%)]. A total of 239 candidate biomarkers were identified, consisting mainly of immune cells, immunoglobulins, cytokines, and other plasma proteins. 19 of the 239 candidate biomarkers identified were evaluated by the authors, by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

INTERPRETATION

Diverse cellular and molecular biomarkers for LC have been proposed. Validation of candidate biomarkers in independent samples should be prioritized. Modest reported performance (particularly in larger studies) suggests LC may encompass many distinct aetiologies, which should be explored e.g., by stratifying by symptom clusters and/or sex.

FUNDING

Dr. Tebbutt has received funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (177747) to conduct this work. The funding source was not involved in this scoping review, or in the decision to submit this manuscript for publication.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among health workers in rural Uganda: A mixed methods study

Background

COVID-19 vaccination is the latest preventive intervention strategy in an attempt to control the global pandemic. Its efficacy has come under scrutiny because of break through infections among the vaccinated and need for booster doses. Besides, although health workers were prioritized for COVID-19 vaccine in most countries, anecdotal evidence points to high levels of reluctance to take the vaccine among health workers. We assessed COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among health workers in Dokolo district, northern Uganda.

Methods

This was a mixed-method, cross-sectional descriptive study. A customised self-administered data collection tool was used to collect quantitative data on characteristics, vaccination status and factors for or rejection of vaccine uptake. We conducted multivariable logistic regression to assess the association between selected exposures and vaccine hesitancy using Stata version 15. Conversely, qualitative data were collected using key informant interviews (KIIs) among 15 participants that were purposively selected. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis with the help of NVivo 12.0.

Results

Of the 346 health workers enrolled, (13.3% [46/346]) were vaccine hesitant. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy included fear of side effects (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 2.55; 95% Confidence Interval [95%CI]: 1.00, 6.49) and health workers' lack of trust in the information provided by health authorities (AOR: 6.74; 95% CI: 2.43, 18.72). Similar factors were associated with vaccine hesitancy when we used the vaccine hesitancy score. Fear of side effects, distrust in vaccine stakeholders, and lack of trust in the vaccine were barriers to COVID-19 vaccination among health workers.

Conclusion

A small proportion of health workers were found to be hesitant to take the COVID-19 vaccine in this study. The paucity of COVID-19 vaccine safety information, which eroded the health workers' trust in the information they received on the vaccine, was responsible for health workers hesitancy to take up the vaccine in Uganda.

Maternal third dose of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and risk of infant COVID-19 hospitalization

Infants are at a higher risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalizations compared to older children. In this study, we investigated the effect of the recommended third maternal dose of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy on rates of infant COVID-19-related hospitalizations. We conducted a nationwide cohort study of all live-born infants delivered in Israel between 24 August 2021 and 15 March 2022 to estimate the effectiveness of the third booster dose versus the second dose against infant COVID-19-related hospitalizations. Data were analyzed for the overall study period, and the Delta and Omicron periods were analyzed separately. Cox proportional hazard regression models estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for infant hospitalizations according to maternal vaccination status at delivery. Among 48,868 live-born infants included in the analysis, rates of COVID-19 hospitalization were 0.4%, 0.6% and 0.7% in the third-dose, second-dose and unvaccinated groups, respectively. Compared to the second dose, the third dose was associated with reduced infant hospitalization with estimated effectiveness of 53% (95% CI: 36-65%). Greater protection was associated with a shorter interval between vaccination and delivery. A third maternal dose during pregnancy reduced the risk of infant hospitalization for COVID-19 during the first 4 months of life, supporting clinical and public health guidance for maternal booster vaccination to prevent infant COVID-19 hospitalization.

Urgent Need for Next-Generation COVID-19 Vaccines

This Viewpoint argues that the development of a distinctly improved generation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is paramount to offering a greater breadth and depth of protection for a longer duration against COVID-19 disease.

Do parents vaccinated against COVID-19 protect their children from hospitalization due to COVID-19?

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine whether parental vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevents hospitalization of COVID-19-infected children.

METHODS

This study was based on data obtained from the records of pediatric patients that were followed up for virologically proven COVID-19 infection between August and October 2021, during which time the delta variant was dominant in Turkey and the children were isolating at home.

RESULTS

There were 151 patients in the inpatient group and 218 in the outpatient group; the mean age was 172.5 and 145.5 months in the groups, respectively. The rates of obesity (22.5% and 6.4%, respectively, p < 0.001) and neurological-neurodevelopmental disorders (8.6% and 1.4%, respectively, p < 0.001) were significantly higher in the inpatient group than in the outpatient group. Of the outpatients' parents, 67.4% (n = 147) were fully vaccinated vs. 38.4% (n = 58) in the inpatient group. In all, 39.7% (n = 60) of the inpatients' parents were unvaccinated vs. 18.3% (n = 40) in the outpatient group. There was a significant correlation between the vaccination status and the patient groups (p < 0.001); it was determined that the COVID-19 infection would be mild in children if both parents were fully vaccinated. When both parents were fully vaccinated against COVID-19, the hospitalization rate decreased and the outpatient follow-up rate increased.

CONCLUSION

Having both parents fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can indirectly protect their subsequently infected children from hospitalization and the long-term effects of infection. Nonetheless, more comprehensive research on delta and non-delta variants is needed.

Efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in Dialysis Patients: Epidemiological Analysis and Evaluation of the Clinical Progress

This study investigated the impact of the fourth COVID-19 pandemic wave on dialysis patients of Romagna territory, assessing the associations of vaccination status with infection risk, clinical severity and mortality. From November 2021 to February 2022, an epidemiological search was conducted on 829 patients under dialysis treatment for at least one month. The data were then analyzed with reference to the general population of the same area. A temporal comparison was also carried out with the previous pandemic waves (from March 2020 to October 2021). The epidemiological evolution over time in the dialysis population and in Romagna citizens replicated the global trend, as the peak of the fourth wave corresponded to the time of maximum diffusion of omicron variant (B.1.1.529). Of 771 prevalent dialysis patients at the beginning of the study, 109 (14.1%) contracted SARS-CoV-2 infection during the 4-month observation period. Vaccine adherence in the dialysis population of the reference area was above 95%. Compared to fully or partially vaccinated subjects, the unvaccinated ones showed a significantly higher proportion of infections (12.5% vs. 27.0% p = 0.0341), a more frequent need for hospitalization (22.2% vs. 50.0%) and a 3.3-fold increased mortality risk. These findings confirm the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in keeping infectious risk under control and ameliorating clinical outcomes in immunocompromised patients.

Vaccine hesitancy and health care providers: Using the preferred cognitive styles and decision- making model and empathy tool to make progress

Low vaccination rates among health care providers (HCPs) pose a risk to themselves, their colleagues, their patients, and the general public. This paper seeks to frame the issues surrounding health care provider vaccine hesitancy and vaccination rates, as well as explore factors influencing respective decision-making, including health care occupation and demographic characteristics. This paper will then propose the use of the Preferred Cognitive Style and Decision-Making (PCSDM) Model and the Empathy Tool to increase health care provider vaccination rates, and will end by discussing several recommendations. It is important while discussing HCP vaccination rates to not view them as a monolithic group or apply “one-size-fits-all” approaches, and thus it is essential to present information and engage in conversations in ways that align with how the HCP takes in and processes information and decisions. Furthermore, it is vital to increase health literacy across the spectrum of HCP programs and professions. To this end, it is important to teach and incorporate the PCSDM Model and Empathy Tool, along with information about how individuals think and make decisions, into vaccine education programs and training sessions.

Proporción de la población con vacunación completa contra Covid-19 a nivel mundial

Introducción: a pesar del célebre desarrollo, licenciamiento y distribución de vacunas efectivas contra COVID-19, el número de casos y muertes registrados recientemente continuó creciendo a nivel mundial hasta el verano del hemisferio norte de 2021. Objetivo: mostrar los países con los mayores porcentajes de cambio absoluto en las personas vacunadas para COVID-19, entre el 13 de diciembre 2020 al 6 de enero 2022.  Metodología: esta investigación se realizó bajo un estudio transversal, la información se obtuvo de la página web de la recolectada por parte de Our World in Data para vacunación contra COVID-19. Resultados: se determinó que los países con mayores cambios absolutos de personas vacunadas en porcentaje fueron: Gibraltar (117,73), Portugal (89,65), Emiratos Árabes Unidos (88,97), Brunéi (87,27), Singapur (87), y Chile (86,35). Conclusión: hay que establecer sistemas de suministro de vacunas y la infraestructura necesaria para certificar el acceso a las vacunas contra la COVID-19 de los grupos poblacionales prioritarios a nivel mundial.

Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

An overall household secondary attack rate (SAR) of 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%) through June 17, 2021 was previously reported for SARS-CoV-2. Emerging variants of concern and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how reported household SARs changed over time and whether SARs varied by viral variant and index case and contact vaccination status.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and medRxiv from June 18, 2021, through March 8, 2022, and reference lists of eligible articles. Preprints were included.

STUDY SELECTION

Articles with original data reporting the number of infected and total number of household contacts. Search terms included SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, variant, vaccination, secondary attack rate, secondary infection rate, household, index case, family contacts, close contacts, and family transmission.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guideline was followed. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SAR stratified by covariates according to variant, index case and contact vaccination status, and index case identification period. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness on the basis of the transmission probability for susceptibility to infection (VES,p), infectiousness given infection (VEI,p), and total vaccine effectiveness (VET,p).

RESULTS

Household SARs were higher for 33 studies with midpoints in 2021 to 2022 (37.3%; 95% CI, 32.7% to 42.1%) compared with 63 studies with midpoints through April 2020 (15.5%; 95% CI, 13.2% to 18.2%). Household SARs were 42.7% (95% CI, 35.4% to 50.4%) for Omicron (7 studies), 36.4% (95% CI, 33.4% to 39.5%) for Alpha (11 studies), 29.7% (95% CI, 23.0% to 37.3%) for Delta (16 studies), and 22.5% (95% CI, 18.6% to 26.8%) for Beta (3 studies). For full vaccination, VES,p was 78.6% (95% CI, 76.0% to 80.9%) for Alpha, 56.4% (95% CI, 54.6% to 58.1%) for Delta, and 18.1% (95% CI, -18.3% to 43.3%) for Omicron; VEI,p was 75.3% (95% CI, 69.9% to 79.8%) for Alpha, 21.9% (95% CI, 11.0% to 31.5%) for Delta, and 18.2% (95% CI, 0.6% to 32.6%) for Omicron; and VET,p was 94.7% (95% CI, 93.3% to 95.8%) for Alpha, 64.4% (95% CI, 58.0% to 69.8%) for Delta, and 35.8% (95% CI, 13.0% to 52.6%) for Omicron.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These results suggest that emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have increased transmissibility. Full vaccination was associated with reductions in susceptibility and infectiousness, but more so for Alpha than Delta and Omicron. The changes in estimated vaccine effectiveness underscore the challenges of developing effective vaccines concomitant with viral evolution.

Indirect protection of children from SARS-CoV-2 infection through parental vaccination

Children not vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may still benefit from vaccines through protection from vaccinated contacts. We estimated the protection provided to children through parental vaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine. We studied households without prior infection consisting of two parents and unvaccinated children, estimating the effect of parental vaccination on the risk of infection for unvaccinated children. We studied two periods separately-an early period (17 January 2021 to 28 March 2021; Alpha variant, two doses versus no vaccination) and a late period (11 July 2021 to 30 September 2021; Delta variant, booster dose versus two vaccine doses). We found that having a single vaccinated parent was associated with a 26.0 and a 20.8% decreased risk in the early and late periods, respectively, and having two vaccinated parents was associated with a 71.7 and a 58.1% decreased risk, respectively. Thus, parental vaccination confers substantial protection on unvaccinated children in the household.

Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel

The effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 on the individual level is well established. However, few studies have examined vaccine effectiveness against transmission. We used a chain binomial model to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine] against household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Israel before and after emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection by 89.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7 to 90.0%], whereas vaccine effectiveness against infectiousness given infection was 23.0% (95% CI: -11.3 to 46.7%) during days 10 to 90 after the second dose, before 1 June 2021. Total vaccine effectiveness was 91.8% (95% CI: 88.1 to 94.3%). However, vaccine effectiveness is reduced over time as a result of the combined effect of waning of immunity and emergence of the Delta variant.

The indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination on healthcare workers' unvaccinated household members

Mass vaccination is effective in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections among vaccinated individuals. However, it remains unclear how effectively COVID-19 vaccines prevent people from spreading the virus to their close contacts. Using nationwide administrative datasets on SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination records, demographics, and unique household IDs, we conducted an observational cohort study to estimate the direct and indirect effectiveness of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in reducing infections among vaccinated healthcare workers and their unvaccinated household members. Our estimates for adults imply indirect effectiveness of 39.1% (95% CI: −7.1% to 65.3%) two weeks and 39.0% (95% CI: 18.9% to 54.0%) eight weeks after the second dose. We find that the indirect effect of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines within households is smaller for unvaccinated children than for adults and statistically insignificant. Here, we show that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections not only among vaccinated individuals but also among unvaccinated adult household members in a real-world setting.

COVID-19 vaccines are effective in preventing disease, but the extent of protection against transmission is unclear. Here, the authors use data from a cohort of healthcare workers in Finland and show that vaccination is associated with reduced infection in their unvaccinated adult household contacts.

Relative infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections, reinfections, and primary infections

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and in those who had a prior infection have been observed globally, but the transmission potential of these infections is unknown. The RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) value is inversely correlated with viral load and culturable virus. Here, we investigate differences in RT-qPCR Ct values across Qatar's national cohorts of primary infections, reinfections, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) breakthrough infections, and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) breakthrough infections. Our matched-cohort analyses of the randomly diagnosed infections show higher mean Ct value in all cohorts of breakthrough infections compared to the cohort of primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. The Ct value is 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9-1.8) cycles higher for BNT162b2 breakthrough infections, 3.2 (95% CI: 1.9-4.5) cycles higher for mRNA-1273 breakthrough infections, and 4.0 (95% CI: 3.5-4.5) cycles higher for reinfections in unvaccinated individuals. Since Ct value correlates inversely with SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness, these differences imply that vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are less infectious than primary infections in unvaccinated individuals. Public health benefits of vaccination may have been underestimated, as COVID-19 vaccines not only protect against acquisition of infection, but also appear to protect against transmission of infection.

Household secondary attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 by variant and vaccination status: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

We previously reported a household secondary attack rate (SAR) for SARS-CoV-2 of 18.9% through June 17, 2021. To examine how emerging variants and increased vaccination have affected transmission rates, we searched PubMed from June 18, 2021, through January 7, 2022. Meta-analyses used generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95%CI, disaggregated by several covariates. SARs were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness based on the transmission probability for susceptibility ( VE S,p ), infectiousness ( VE I,p ), and total vaccine effectiveness ( VE T,p ). Household SAR for 27 studies with midpoints in 2021 was 35.8% (95%CI, 30.6%-41.3%), compared to 15.7% (95%CI, 13.3%-18.4%) for 62 studies with midpoints through April 2020. Household SARs were 38.0% (95%CI, 36.0%-40.0%), 30.8% (95%CI, 23.5%-39.3%), and 22.5% (95%CI, 18.6%-26.8%) for Alpha, Delta, and Beta, respectively. VE I,p , VE S,p , and VE T,p were 56.6% (95%CI, 28.7%-73.6%), 70.3% (95%CI, 59.3%-78.4%), and 86.8% (95%CI, 76.7%-92.5%) for full vaccination, and 27.5% (95%CI, -6.4%-50.7%), 43.9% (95%CI, 21.8%-59.7%), and 59.9% (95%CI, 34.4%-75.5%) for partial vaccination, respectively. Household contacts exposed to Alpha or Delta are at increased risk of infection compared to the original wild-type strain. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection and transmission to others.

SUMMARY

Household secondary attack rates (SARs) were higher for Alpha and Delta variants than previous estimates. SARs were higher to unvaccinated contacts than to partially or fully vaccinated contacts and were higher from unvaccinated index cases than from fully vaccinated index cases.

Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel

The individual-level effectiveness of vaccines against clinical disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 is well-established. However, few studies have directly examined the effect of COVID-19 vaccines on transmission. We quantified the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA-based vaccine) against household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Israel. We fit two time-to-event models - a mechanistic transmission model and a regression model - to estimate vaccine effectiveness against susceptibility to infection and infectiousness given infection in household settings. Vaccine effectiveness against susceptibility to infection was 80-88%. For breakthrough infections among vaccinated individuals, the vaccine effectiveness against infectiousness was 41-79%. The overall vaccine effectiveness against transmission was 88.5%. Vaccination provides substantial protection against susceptibility to infection and slightly lower protection against infectiousness given infection, thereby reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts.

ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY

Vaccination reduced both the rate of infection with SARS-CoV-2 and transmission to household contacts in Israel.

The city and the virus

Cities around the world are the epicentres of the coronavirus pandemic: both in the first wave, as the disease spread from East Asia, and now, as many countries enter a third wave of infections. These spatial patterns are still far from properly understood, though there is no shortage of possible explanations. I set out the emerging theories about cities’ role in the spread of coronavirus, testing these against existing studies and new analysis for English conurbations, cities and towns. Both reveal an urbanised public health crisis, in which vulnerabilities and health impacts track (a) urban structural inequalities, and (b) wider weaknesses in institutions, their capabilities and leaders. I then turn to ‘post-pandemic’ visions of future cities. I argue that this framing is unhelpful: even with mass vaccination, COVID-19 is likely to remain one of many globalised endemic diseases. Instead, ‘pandemic-resilient’ urban places will require improved economic, social and physical infrastructure, alongside better public policy. Describing such future cities is still highly speculative: I identify five zones of change.

Impact of Delta Variant and Vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Secondary Attack Rate Among Household Close Contacts

BACKGROUND

Impact of the Delta variant and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. In Singapore, quarantine of all close contacts, including entry and exit PCR testing, provided the opportunity to determine risk of infection by the Delta variant compared to other variants, vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 acquisition, symptomatic or severe COVID-19, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and symptomatic disease.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included all close contacts between September 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021. Regardless of symptoms, all were quarantined for 14 days with entry and exit PCR testing. Household contacts were defined as individuals who shared a residence with a Covid-19 index case. Secondary attack rates among household close contacts of Delta variant-infected indexes and other variant-infected indexes were derived from prevalence of diagnosed cases among contacts. Relative risk ratios and bootstrapping at the cluster level was used to determine risk of infection by the Delta variant compared to other variants and vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 acquisition, symptomatic or severe COVID-19. Logistic regression using generalized estimating equations was used to determine risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and symptomatic disease.

FINDINGS

Of 1024 household contacts linked to 301 PCR-confirmed index cases, 753 (73.5%) were linked to Delta-infected indexes and 248 (24.2%) were exposed to indexes with other variants. Household secondary attack rate among unvaccinated Delta-exposed contacts was 25.8% (95% boostrap confidence interval [BCI] 20.6-31.5%) compared with 12.9% (95%BCI 7.0-20.0%) among other variant-exposed contacts. Unvaccinated Delta-exposed contacts were more likely to be infected than those exposed to other variants (Relative risk 2.01, 95%CI 1.24-3.84). Among Delta-exposed contacts, complete vaccination had a vaccine effectiveness of 56.4% (95%BCI 32.6-75.8%) against acquisition, 64.1% (95%BCI 37.8-85.4%) against symptomatic disease and 100% against severe disease. Among Delta-exposed contacts, vaccination status (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.33, 95% robust confidence interval [RCI] 0.17-0.63) and older age of the index (aOR 1.20 per decade, 95%RCI 1.03-1.39) was associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition by the contact. Vaccination status of the index was not associated with a statistically-significant difference for contact SARS-CoV-2 acquisition (aOR 0.73, 95%RCI 0.38-1.40).

INTERPRETATION

Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 Delta acquisition compared with other variants was reduced with vaccination. Close-contacts of vaccinated Delta-infected indexes did not have statistically significant reduced risk of acquisition compared with unvaccinated Delta-infected indexes.

The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions

Background

Countries around the world have introduced travel restrictions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. As vaccines are gradually rolled out, attention has turned to when travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be relaxed.

Methods

Using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a mathematical branching process model to assess the risk that, following the removal of NPIs, cases arriving in low prevalence settings initiate a local outbreak. Our model accounts for changes in background population immunity due to vaccination. We consider two locations with low prevalence in which the vaccine rollout has progressed quickly – specifically, the Isle of Man (a British crown dependency in the Irish Sea) and the country of Israel.

Results

We show that the outbreak risk is unlikely to be eliminated completely when travel restrictions and other NPIs are removed. This general result is the most important finding of this study, rather than exact quantitative outbreak risk estimates in different locations. It holds even once vaccine programmes are completed. Key factors underlying this result are the potential for transmission even following vaccination, incomplete vaccine uptake, and the recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased transmissibility.

Conclusions

Combined, the factors described above suggest that, when travel restrictions are relaxed, it may still be necessary to implement surveillance of incoming passengers to identify infected individuals quickly. This measure, as well as tracing and testing (and/or isolating) contacts of detected infected passengers, remains useful to suppress potential outbreaks while global case numbers are high.

The effectiveness of public health measures against COVID-19 has varied between countries, with some experiencing many infections and others containing transmission successfully. As vaccines are deployed, an important challenge is deciding when to relax measures. Here, we consider locations with few cases, and investigate whether vaccination can ever eliminate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks completely, allowing measures to be removed risk-free. Using a mathematical model, we demonstrate that there is still a risk that imported cases initiate outbreaks when measures are removed, even if most of the population is fully vaccinated. This highlights the need for continued vigilance in low prevalence settings to prevent imported cases leading to local transmission. Until case numbers are reduced globally, so that SARS-CoV-2 spread between countries is less likely, the risk of outbreaks in low prevalence settings will remain.

Sachak-Patwa et al. estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the Isle of Man and Israel as case studies. Using a branching process mathematical model, the authors show that even after a large proportion of the population is vaccinated, there remains a risk of local outbreaks from imported cases.

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study

Vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.

Factors Associated With Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

A previous systematic review and meta-analysis of household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that summarized 54 published studies through October 19, 2020, found an overall secondary attack rate (SAR) of 16.6% (95% CI, 14.0%-19.3%). However, the understanding of household secondary attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 is still evolving, and updated analysis is needed.

Objective

To use newly published data to further the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the household.

Data Sources

PubMed and reference lists of eligible articles were used to search for records published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021. No restrictions on language, study design, time, or place of publication were applied. Studies published as preprints were included.

Study Selection

Articles with original data that reported at least 2 of the following factors were included: number of household contacts with infection, total number of household contacts, and secondary attack rates among household contacts. Studies that reported household infection prevalence (which includes index cases), that tested contacts using antibody tests only, and that included populations overlapping with another included study were excluded. Search terms were SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 with secondary attack rate, household, close contacts, contact transmission, contact attack rate, or family transmission.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Meta-analyses were performed using generalized linear mixed models to obtain SAR estimates and 95% CIs. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Overall household SAR for SARS-CoV-2, SAR by covariates (contact age, sex, ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship; index case age, sex, symptom status, presence of fever, and presence of cough; number of contacts; study location; and variant), and SAR by index case identification period.

Results

A total of 2722 records (2710 records from database searches and 12 records from the reference lists of eligible articles) published between October 20, 2020, and June 17, 2021, were identified. Of those, 93 full-text articles reporting household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 were assessed for eligibility, and 37 studies were included. These 37 new studies were combined with 50 of the 54 studies (published through October 19, 2020) from our previous review (4 studies from Wuhan, China, were excluded because their study populations overlapped with another recent study), resulting in a total of 87 studies representing 1 249 163 household contacts from 30 countries. The estimated household SAR for all 87 studies was 18.9% (95% CI, 16.2%-22.0%). Compared with studies from January to February 2020, the SAR for studies from July 2020 to March 2021 was higher (13.4% [95% CI, 10.7%-16.7%] vs 31.1% [95% CI, 22.6%-41.1%], respectively). Results from subgroup analyses were similar to those reported in a previous systematic review and meta-analysis; however, the SAR was higher to contacts with comorbidities (3 studies; 50.0% [95% CI, 41.4%-58.6%]) compared with previous findings, and the estimated household SAR for the B.1.1.7 (α) variant was 24.5% (3 studies; 95% CI, 10.9%-46.2%).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that the household remains an important site of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and recent studies have higher household SAR estimates compared with the earliest reports. More transmissible variants and vaccines may be associated with further changes.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

Background

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies.

Methods

We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions.

Results

We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community.

Conclusions

Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

A large number of COVID-19 infections and deaths have occurred in older adults who reside in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). In this study, we determine whether high rates of vaccinations among older adult residents of LTCFs in Catalonia (Spain) reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—and prevented infections and deaths after most vaccinations were complete. We use statistical modeling to compare the expected number of infections and deaths in LTCFs if vaccination would not have occurred to those actually observed after vaccinating more than 70% of residents. We estimate that 3 out of 4 SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths were prevented due to vaccination, and that SARS-CoV-2 transmission in LTCFs was reduced by 90%. Our study shows that high-coverage vaccination is a highly effective way to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among vulnerable populations

De Salazar et al. quantify the impact of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination on COVID-19 transmission and deaths in residents of long-term care facilities in Catalonia, Spain using statistical modelling. They find that high vaccination coverage results in a substantial reduction in transmission amongst residents, preventing around 3 in 4 documented infections and COVID-19-related deaths.

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), and recent studies have shown the vaccines are also effective against infection. Evidence for the effect of each of these vaccines on ability to transmit the virus is also beginning to emerge. We describe an approach to estimate these vaccines' effects on viral positivity, a prevalence measure which under the reasonable assumption that vaccinated individuals who become infected are no more infectious than unvaccinated individuals forms a lower bound on efficacy against transmission. Specifically, we recommend separate analysis of positive tests triggered by symptoms (usually the primary RCT outcome) and cross-sectional prevalence of positive tests obtained regardless of symptoms. The odds ratio of carriage for vaccine vs. placebo provides an unbiased estimate of vaccine effectiveness against viral positivity, under certain assumptions, and we show through simulations that likely departures from these assumptions will only modestly bias this estimate. Applying this approach to published data from the RCT of the Moderna vaccine, we estimate that one dose of vaccine reduces the potential for transmission by at least 61%, possibly considerably more. We describe how these approaches can be translated into observational studies of vaccine effectiveness.

Interpreting vaccine efficacy trial results for infection and transmission

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown high efficacy of multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19), and recent studies have shown the vaccines are also effective against infection. Evidence for the effect of each of these vaccines on ability to transmit the virus is also beginning to emerge. We describe an approach to estimate these vaccines' effects on viral positivity, a prevalence measure which under the reasonable assumption that vaccinated individuals who become infected are no more infectious than unvaccinated individuals forms a lower bound on efficacy against transmission. Specifically, we recommend separate analysis of positive tests triggered by symptoms (usually the primary outcome) and cross-sectional prevalence of positive tests obtained regardless of symptoms. The odds ratio of carriage for vaccine vs. placebo provides an unbiased estimate of vaccine effectiveness against viral positivity, under certain assumptions, and we show through simulations that likely departures from these assumptions will only modestly bias this estimate. Applying this approach to published data from the RCT of the Moderna vaccine, we estimate that one dose of vaccine reduces the potential for transmission by at least 61%, possibly considerably more. We describe how these approaches can be translated into observational studies of vaccine effectiveness.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. We evaluated the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, a region of Spain. We monitored all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents from February 6th to March 28th, 2021, the subsequent time period after which 70% of them were fully vaccinated. We developed a modeling framework based on the relation between community and LTFCs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July -December 2020) and compared the true observations with the counterfactual model predictions. As a measure of vaccine effectiveness, we computed the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction on the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We estimated that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population were fully vaccinated, 74% (58%-81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36%-86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents were prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents was reduced up to 90% (76-93%, 90%CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Conditional on key factors such as vaccine roll out, escape and coverage --across age groups--, widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic.