Elevated International Normalized Ratio and Mortality in Hospitalized Patients Treated with Direct Oral Anticoagulants

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are associated with a prolongation of the prothrombin time and an increased international normalized ratio (INR). The clinical significance of these changes is unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between an elevated INR on admission and in-hospital death and long-term survival in patients treated with DOACs.

METHODS

Data were retrospectively retrieved from records of hospitalized patients at the Sheba Medical Center between November 2008 and July 2023. Patients were selected based on DOAC treatment, coagulation profile, and INR test done within 48 hours of hospitalization. The outcomes were in-hospital mortality and mortality in the year following hospitalization.

RESULTS

The study included 11,399 hospitalized patients treated with DOACs. Patients with elevated INR had a 180% higher risk of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 2.30-3.39) and a 57% increased risk of death during the following year (adjusted hazard ratio 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.44-1.71). Similar results were observed in subgroup analyses for each DOAC.

CONCLUSIONS

An elevated INR on admission is associated with a higher risk for in-hospital death and increased risk for mortality during the first year following hospitalization in hospitalized patients treated with DOACs. This highlights that elevated INR levels in patients on DOACs should not be dismissed as laboratory variations due to DOAC treatment, as they may serve as a prognostic marker.

The value of parental medical records for the prediction of diabetes and cardiovascular disease: a novel method for generating and incorporating family histories

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether data-driven family histories (DDFH) derived from linked EHRs of patients and their parents can improve prediction of patients' 10-year risk of diabetes and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using data from Israel's largest healthcare organization. A random sample of 200 000 subjects aged 40-60 years on the index date (January 1, 2010) was included. Subjects with insufficient history (<1 year) or insufficient follow-up (<10 years) were excluded. Two separate XGBoost models were developed-1 for diabetes and 1 for ASCVD-to predict the 10-year risk for each outcome based on data available prior to the index date of January 1, 2010.

RESULTS

Overall, the study included 110 734 subject-father-mother triplets. There were 22 153 cases of diabetes (20%) and 11 715 cases of ASCVD (10.6%). The addition of parental information significantly improved prediction of diabetes risk (P < .001), but not ASCVD risk. For both outcomes, maternal medical history was more predictive than paternal medical history. A binary variable summarizing parental disease state delivered similar predictive results to the full parental EHR.

DISCUSSION

The increasing availability of EHRs for multiple family generations makes DDFH possible and can assist in delivering more personalized and precise medicine to patients. Consent frameworks must be established to enable sharing of information across generations, and the results suggest that sharing the full records may not be necessary.

CONCLUSION

DDFH can address limitations of patient self-reported family history, and it improves clinical predictions for some conditions, but not for all, and particularly among younger adults.

Immunogenicity and Reactogenicity of Coadministration of COVID-19 and Influenza Vaccines

Importance

COVID-19 and seasonal influenza vaccines were previously given separately, although their coadministration is warranted for vaccination adherence. Limited data on their coadministration have been published.

Objective

To compare the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of COVID-19 and influenza vaccinations administered together with those of COVID-19 vaccination alone.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study included health care workers at a large tertiary medical center in Israel who received the Influvac Tetra (Abbott) influenza vaccine (2022/2023), the Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent (Pfizer/BioNTech) vaccine, or both. Vaccination began in September 2022, and data were collected until January 2023. Vaccines were offered to all employees and were coadministered or given separately. Adverse reaction questionnaires were sent, and serologic samples were also collected.

Exposures

Receiving COVID-19 vaccine, influenza vaccine, or both.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes for the reactogenicity analysis were symptoms following vaccine receipt, assessed by a digital questionnaire: any local symptoms; fever; weakness or fatigue; any systemic symptoms; and their duration. The immunogenicity analysis' outcome was postvaccination anti-spike IgG titer.

Results

This study included 2 cohorts for 2 separate analyses. The reactogenicity analysis included 588 participants (of 649 questionnaire responders): 85 in the COVID-19 vaccine-alone group (median [IQR] age, 71 [58-74] years; 56 [66%] female); 357 in the influenza vaccine-alone group (median [IQR] age, 55 [40-65] years; 282 [79%] female); and 146 in the coadministration group (median [IQR] age, 61 [50-71] years; 81 [55%] female). The immunogenicity analysis included 151 participants: 74 participants in the COVID-19 vaccine group (median [IQR] age, 67 [56-73] years; 45 [61%] female) and 77 participants in the coadministration group (median [IQR] age, 60 [49-73] years; 42 [55%] female). Compared with COVID-19 vaccination alone, the risk of systemic symptoms was similar in the coadministration group (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.43-1.56). Geometric mean titers in the coadministration group were estimated to be 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69-1.04) times lower than in the COVID-19 vaccine-alone group.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of health care workers who received a COVID-19 vaccine, an influenza vaccine, or both, coadministration was not associated with substantially inferior immune response or to more frequent adverse events compared with COVID-19 vaccine administration alone, supporting the coadministration of these vaccines.

Fluctuations in Serum Creatinine Levels During Hospitalization and Long-Term End-Stage Kidney Disease and Mortality

Importance

Acute kidney injury is associated with poor outcomes, but the clinical implication of reversible serum creatinine level fluctuations during hospitalization not necessarily defined as acute kidney injury is poorly understood.

Objective

To investigate the long-term outcomes of patients without previously diagnosed kidney disease who present with decreased kidney function and are subsequently discharged with apparently normal kidney function.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients hospitalized in a large tertiary hospital in Israel between September 1, 2007, and July 31, 2022. The study included patients admitted to an internal medicine ward. Patients had not undergone dialysis during the index hospitalization, had at least 3 creatinine tests performed during hospitalization, and had a discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) exceeding 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Patients with preexisting chronic kidney disease were excluded.

Exposure

Glomerular filtration rate was estimated from serum creatinine values using the updated 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula, and eGFR greater than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was regarded as normal. Exposure was defined based on the association between the first and last values determined during hospitalization.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality in the year following the index hospitalization and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the 10 years following the index hospitalization.

Results

A total of 40 558 patients were included. Median age was 69 (IQR, 56-80) years, with 18 004 women (44%) and 22 554 men (56%). A total of 34 332 patients (85%) were admitted with a normal eGFR and 6226 (15%) with decreased eGFR. Patients with decreased eGFR on presentation had an 18% increased mortality in the year following hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11-1.24) and a 267% increased risk of ESKD in the 10 years following hospitalization (AHR, 3.67; 95% CI, 2.43-5.54), despite having been discharged with apparently normal kidney function. The highest risk was noted in patients who presented to the hospital with an eGFR of 0 to 45 mL/min/1.73 m2.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that patients who present with decreased kidney function and are discharged without clinically evident residual kidney disease may be at increased long-term risk for ESKD and mortality.

Immunogenicity of Omicron BA.1-adapted BNT162b2 vaccines: randomized trial, 3-month follow-up

OBJECTIVES

The capability of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant to escape immunity conferred by mRNA vaccines has led to the development of Omicron-adapted vaccines. In this study, we aimed to compare the immune response with the ancestral strain and with the BA.1 Omicron variant after administration of the original vaccine and the Omicron-adapted vaccine.

METHODS

This is an ongoing phase 3, double-blinded randomized controlled trial, comparing the original BNT161b2 vaccine, monovalent Omicron BA.1-adapted BNT161b2 vaccine, and bivalent combinations. Each vaccine was given at a 30 μg and 60 μg dose. Primary outcomes considered included neutralization titers of SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain and Omicron BA.1. Exploratory endpoints included neutralization titers for Omicron BA.5, and the incidence of COVID-19 cases.

RESULTS

Overall, 122 individuals (22, 19, 20, 20, 20, 20, and 21 in each arm) completed a 90-day follow-up. Three months after vaccination, adjusting for baseline levels, neutralizing antibody titers were 0.63 (95% CI: 0.3-1.32) and 0.54 (0.24-1.2) for monovalent/60 μg, 0.9 (0.42-1.92) and 2.69 (1.17-6.17) times for monovalent-Omi.BA.1/30 μg, 1.28 (0.6-2.75) and 2.79 (1.21-6.41) times for monovalent-Omi.BA.1/60 μg, 0.96 (0.46-1.97) and 2.07 (0.93-4.58) times for bivalent-Omi.BA.1/30 μg, and 0.79 (0.38-1.63) and 1.95 (0.88-4.32) times for bivalent-Omi.BA.1/60 μg when compared with BNT162b2/30 μg against the ancestral strain and BA.1 variant, respectively.

DISCUSSION

BA.1-adapted mRNA vaccines lead to a stronger neutralizing antibody response against the Omicron BA.1 sub-variant.

Factors Associated With Protection From SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infection and Disease Among Vaccinated Health Care Workers in Israel

Importance

A correlation between antibody levels and risk of infection has been demonstrated for the wild-type, Alpha, and Delta SARS-COV-2 variants. High rates of breakthrough infections by the Omicron variant emphasized the need to investigate whether the humoral response elicited by mRNA vaccines is also associated with reduced risk of Omicron infection and disease.

Objective

To investigate whether the high antibody levels in individuals who have received at least 3 doses of an mRNA vaccine are associated with reduced risk of Omicron infection and disease.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study used serial real time-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and serological test data from January and May 2022 to assess the association of preinfection immunoglobin G (IgG) and neutralizing antibody titers with incidence of Omicron variant infection, incidence of symptomatic disease, and infectivity. Participants included health care workers who had received 3 or 4 doses of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Data were analyzed from May to August 2022.

Exposures

Levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-receptor binding domain IgG and neutralizing antibodies.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were incidence of Omicron infection, incidence of symptomatic disease, and infectivity. Outcomes were measured using SARS-COV-2 PCR and antigen testing and daily online surveys regarding symptomatic disease.

Results

This study included 3 cohorts for 3 different analyses: 2310 participants were included in the protection from infection analysis (4689 exposure events; median [IQR] age, 50 [40-60] years; 3590 [76.6%] among female health care workers), 667 participants (median [IQR] age, 46.28 (37.44,54.8); 516 [77.4%] female) in the symptomatic disease analysis, and 532 participants (median [IQR] age, 48 [39-56] years; 403 [75.8%] female) in the infectivity analysis. Lower odds of infection were observed for each 10-fold increase in preinfection IgG (odds ratio [OR], 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.90) and for each 2-fold increase in neutralizing antibody titers (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83-0.95). The odds of substantial symptomatic disease were reduced for each 10-fold increase in IgG levels (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.29-0.78) and for each 2-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies levels (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96). Infectivity, assessed by mean cycle threshold value, was not significantly decreased with increasing IgG or neutralizing antibodies titers.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of vaccinated health care workers, IgG and neutralizing antibody titer levels were associated with protection against infection with the Omicron variant and against symptomatic disease.

Correlates of protection against COVID-19 infection and intensity of symptomatic disease in vaccinated individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in households in Israel (ICoFS): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Identifying COVID-19 correlates of protection and immunity thresholds is important for policy makers and vaccine development. We aimed to identify correlates of protection of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccination against COVID-19.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, households within a radius of 40 km of the Sheba Medical Center in Israel in which a new SARS-CoV-2 infection (defined as the index case) was detected within the previous 24 h were approached between July 25 and Nov 15, 2021. We included adults (aged >18 years) who had received one or two vaccine doses, had an initial negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR and no previous infection reported, and had a valid IgG and neutralising antibody result. The exposure of interest was baseline immune status, including IgG antibody concentration, neutralising antibody titre, and T-cell activation. The outcomes of interest were PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection between day 2 and day 21 of follow-up and intensity of disease symptoms (self-reported via a telephone questionnaire) among participants who had a confirmed infection. Multivariable logistic and ordered logit ordinal regressions were used for the adjusted analysis. To identify immunological thresholds for clinical protection, we estimated the conditional probability of infection and moderate or severe disease for individuals with pre-exposure IgG and neutralising antibody concentrations above each value observed in the study data.

FINDINGS

From 16 675 detected index cases in the study region, 5718 household members agreed to participate, 1461 of whom were eligible to be included in our study. 333 (22·8%) of 1461 household members who were not infected with SARS-CoV-2 at baseline were infected within 21 days of follow-up. The baseline (pre-exposure) IgG and neutralising antibodies were higher in participants who remained uninfected than in those who became infected (geometric mean IgG antibody concentration 168·2 binding antibody units [BAU] per mL [95% CI 158·3-178·7] vs 130·5 BAU/mL [118·3-143·8] and geometric mean neutralising antibody titre 197·5 [181·9-214·4] vs 136 ·7 [120·3-155·4]). Increasing IgG and neutralising antibody concentrations were also significantly associated with a reduced probability of increasing disease severity. Odds of infection were significantly reduced each time baseline IgG antibody concentration increased by a factor of ten (odds ratio [OR] 0·43 [95% CI 0·26-0·70]) and each time baseline neutralising antibody titre increased by a factor of two (0·82 [0·74-0·92]). In our cohort, the probability of infection if IgG antibody concentrations were higher than 500 BAU/mL was 11% and the probability of moderate disease severity was 1%; the probability of infection if neutralising antibody titres were above or equal to 1024 was 8% and the probability of moderate disease severity was 2%. T-cell activation rates were not significantly associated with reduced probability of infection (OR 1·04, 95% CI 0·83-1·30).

INTERPRETATION

Both IgG and neutralising antibodies are correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data suggest that IgG concentrations higher than 500 BAU/mL and neutralising antibody titres of 1024 or more are thresholds for immunological protection from SARS-CoV-2 delta variant infection. Potentially, updated protective thresholds against emerging variants of concern could be calculated, which could support decision makers on administration of new vaccination strategies and on the optimal period between vaccine doses.

FUNDING

Israeli Ministry of Health.

Chronic health conditions among long-term survivors of adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer: A comparison of outcomes in Israel and the United States

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of information on health outcomes of adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors living outside North America and Europe. This study compared outcomes in AYA cancer survivors in Israel with individuals without cancer and similar demographics and access to health care, and to AYA cancer survivors living in the United States.

METHODS

This study included 12,674 2-year survivors of AYA (aged 15-39 years) cancer diagnosed between 2000 and 2018 at Clalit Health Services (CHS) in Israel. CHS participants without cancer (N = 50,696) were matched 4:1 to survivors on age, sex, ethnicity, and membership duration. Poisson regression was used to determine incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for chronic conditions. The US Kaiser Permanente Southern California AYA cohort (N = 6778) was used to estimate weighted (age, sex) standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for CHS survivors.

RESULTS

CHS AYA cancer survivors were more likely to have any chronic condition (IRR, 1.6 95% CI, 1.5-1.7), compared with participants without cancer. Survivors had an increased risk across nearly all conditions examined, with especially elevated risks for osteoporosis (IRR, 4.7; 95% CI, 4.1-5.5) and cardiomyopathy (IRR, 4.2 95% CI, 3.4-5.3). Compared with the Kaiser Permanente Southern California cohort, CHS survivors had an overall lower (SIR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65-0.72) incidence of developing any health condition, with noticeably lower incidence of hyperlipidemia (SIR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.64-0.75).

CONCLUSION

AYA cancer survivors in Israel are at increased risk for developing chronic conditions compared with individuals without cancer, but the overall incidence was lower than in US survivors. These findings may allow for refinement of surveillance recommendations for AYA survivors, taking into consideration regional differences in sociodemographic characteristics and cancer care.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

The burden of chronic conditions was consistently greater in Israeli adolescent and young adult cancer survivors compared with individuals without cancer, with clear differences in risk of specific conditions by cancer diagnosis. However, the overall incidence of chronic conditions in Israeli survivors was generally lower than in US survivors.

Utility of early colonoscopy for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early colonoscopy (within 8-24 h) is recommended in different guidelines for acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB). Despite this recommendation, evidence for its effectiveness are conflicting, and early colonoscopy is often not performed.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the utility of early colonoscopy by examining the findings during the procedure, and by comparing in-hospital and long-term outcomes between patients who did and did not undergo early colonoscopy.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study based on the electronic medical records of a large tertiary hospital in Israel.

METHODS

All patients hospitalized with acute LGIB to acute wards between 2012 and 2022 were included. First, structured and free-text procedure notes from patients who did undergo early colonoscopy were examined. Second, we compared in-hospital and long-term outcomes between patients who did and did not undergo early colonoscopy while adjusting for possible confounders using multivariable regression of the type appropriate for each outcome.

RESULTS

Overall, 953 patients were included, of which 90 underwent early colonoscopy. The majority (54%) were found insufficiently prepared. Common findings were diverticulosis (38%) and colon polyps (20%). The procedure was effective for hemostasis in only 13% of the cases. Early colonoscopy was not significantly associated with increased survival (exponentiated coefficient = 1.19, 95% CI: 0.76, 1.87), decreased length of hospitalization (exponentiated coefficient = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.21), or increased blood hemoglobin at discharge (coefficient =-0.27, 95% CI: -0.58, 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Early colonoscopy was often not effective and was not associated with significantly improved outcomes.

Immunogenicity and efficacy of fourth BNT162b2 and mRNA1273 COVID-19 vaccine doses; three months follow-up

Booster doses for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are under consideration in many countries. We report a three-month follow-up of 700 participants in a fourth vaccine dose study, comparing BNT162b2 and mRNA1273, administered four months after a third BNT162b2 dose. The primary outcomes are the levels of IgG, neutralizing antibodies, and microneutralization and the secondary outcomes are the levels of IgA and T cell activation, and clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection and substantial symptomatic disease. Waning of the immune response is evident during follow-up, with an 11% (β = 0.89, 95% CI, 0.88-0.9) and 21% (β = 0.79, 95% CI, 0.76-0.82) multiplicative decay per week of IgG and neutralizing antibodies, respectively, in the mRNA1273 group, and of 14% (β = 0.86, 95% CI, 0.86-0.87) and 26% (β = 0.74, 95% CI, 0.72-0.76), respectively, in the BNT162b2 group. Direct neutralization of Omicron variants is low relative to ancestral strains. Cumulatively over the study period, both vaccines show little efficacy against infection but were highly efficacious against substantial symptomatic disease [89% [(IRR 0.11, 95% CI, 0.02-0.37) and 71% (IRR 0.29, 95% CI, 0.13-0.57) for mRNA1273 and BNT162b2, respectively]. These results are informative for further boosting policy-making. Trial registration numbers (clinicaltrials.gov): NCT05231005 and NCT05230953.

The Association Between Pre-Booster Vaccination Antibody Levels and the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

The correlation between Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels and infection was reported. Here, we estimated the role of pre-fourth-dose levels using data from 1,098 health-care-workers. The risk of infection was reduced by 46% (95% CI: 29-59%) with a 10-fold increase in pre-booster levels. Pre-booster antibody levels could be used to optimally time boosters.

Association of opioid use disorder with healthcare utilization and cost in a public health system

AIM

To quantify the healthcare costs associated with opioid use disorder among members in a public healthcare system and compare them with healthcare costs in the general population.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Inpatient and outpatient care settings of Israel's largest public healthcare provider (that covers 4.7 million members).

PARTICIPANTS

Participants included 1173 members who had a diagnosis of opioid use disorder in the years between 2013 and 2018. Each patient was matched with 10 controls based on age and sex.

MEASUREMENTS

The main outcome was monthly healthcare costs.

FINDINGS

The mean monthly healthcare cost of members with opioid use disorder was $1102 compared with $211 among controls (5.2-fold difference; 95% CI, 4.6-6.0). After excluding members with heroin related diagnoses before the index date (to focus on prescription opioids), this healthcare cost ratio did not substantially change (4.6-fold; 95% CI, 3.9-5.4). Members with opioid use disorder under the age of 65 years had a cost difference of 6.1-fold (95% CI, 5.2-7.1), whereas those 65 years and older experienced cost difference of 3.4-fold (95% CI, 2.6-4.5), compared with controls. The category with the highest cost for members with opioid use disorder was inpatient services, which was 8.7-fold (95%CI, 7.2-10.4) greater than among controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare costs among individuals with opioid use disorder in Israel's public health system are substantially higher than among controls, at least partially attributable to prescription opioid use disorder. Differences are greater among individuals under 65 years.

Comparing immunogenicity and efficacy of two different mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines as a fourth dose; six-month follow-up, Israel, 27 December 2021 to 24 July 2022

We assess the immunogenicity and efficacy of Spikevax and Comirnaty as fourth dose COVID-19 vaccines. Six months post-fourth-dose, IgG levels were higher than pre-fourth dose at 1.58-fold (95% CI: 1.27-1.97) in Spikevax and 1.16-fold (95% CI: 0.98-1.37) in Comirnaty vaccinees. Nearly 60% (159/274) of vaccinees contracted SARS-CoV-2. Infection hazard ratios (HRs) for Spikevax (0.82; 95% CI: 0.62-1.09) and Comirnaty (0.86; 95% CI: 0.65-1.13) vaccinees were similar, as were substantial-disease HRs, i.e. 0.28 (95% CI: 0.13-0.62) and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.27-0.96), respectively.

COVID-19 vaccination and BA.1 breakthrough infection induce neutralising antibodies which are less efficient against BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, Israel, March to June 2022

This work evaluated neutralising antibody titres against wild type (WT) SARS-CoV-2 and four Omicron variants (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5) in healthcare workers who had breakthrough BA.1 infection. Omicron breakthrough infection in individuals vaccinated three or four times before infection resulted in increased neutralising antibodies against the WT virus. The fourth vaccine dose did not further improve the neutralising efficiency over the third dose against all Omicron variants, especially BA.4 and BA.5. An Omicron-specific vaccine may be indicated.

BNT162b2 Vaccine Effectiveness against Omicron in Children 5 to 11 Years of Age

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence is available on the real-world effectiveness of the BNT162b2 vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and specifically against infection with the omicron variant among children 5 to 11 years of age.

METHODS

Using data from the largest health care organization in Israel, we identified a cohort of children 5 to 11 years of age who were vaccinated on or after November 23, 2021, and matched them with unvaccinated controls to estimate the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 among newly vaccinated children during the omicron wave. Vaccine effectiveness against documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was estimated after the first and second vaccine doses. The cumulative incidence of each outcome in the two study groups through January 7, 2022, was estimated with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 minus the risk ratio. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated in age subgroups.

RESULTS

Among 136,127 eligible children who had been vaccinated during the study period, 94,728 were matched with unvaccinated controls. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against documented infection was 17% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7 to 25) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 51% (95% CI, 39 to 61) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. The absolute risk difference between the study groups at days 7 to 21 after the second dose was 1905 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 1294 to 2440) for documented infection and 599 events per 100,000 persons (95% CI, 296 to 897) for symptomatic Covid-19. The estimated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 was 18% (95% CI, -2 to 34) at 14 to 27 days after the first dose and 48% (95% CI, 29 to 63) at 7 to 21 days after the second dose. We observed a trend toward higher vaccine effectiveness in the youngest age group (5 or 6 years of age) than in the oldest age group (10 or 11 years of age).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that as omicron was becoming the dominant variant, two doses of the BNT162b2 messenger RNA vaccine provided moderate protection against documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic Covid-19 in children 5 to 11 years of age. (Funded by the European Union through the VERDI project and others.).

BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness in chronic kidney disease patients – an observational study

Background

chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate real-life effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine for a range of outcomes in patients with CKD compared to matched controls.

Methods

Data from Israel's largest healthcare organization were retrospectively used. Vaccinated CKD (eGFR&lt;60ml/min/1.73m2) and maintenance dialysis patients were matched to vaccinated controls without CKD (eGFR&gt; = 60ml/min/1.73m2) according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with SARS-CoV-2, symptomatic infection, COVID-19 related hospitalization, severe disease, and death. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as the risk ratio [RR] at days 7-28 following the second vaccine dose, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator. Effectiveness measures were also evaluated separately for various stages of CKD.

Results

There were 67,861 CKD patients not treated with dialysis, 2,606 hemodialysis patients, and 70,467 matched controls. The risk of sever disease (RR1.84, 95% CI 0.95-2.67) and death (RR 2.00, 95% CI 0.99-5.20) was increased in non-dialysis CKD patients compared with controls without CKD following vaccination.

For the subgroup of patients with eGFR below 30 ml/min/1.73m2, the risk of severe disease and death was increased compared to controls (RR 6.42, 95% CI 1.85-17.51 and RR 8.81, 95% CI 1.63-13.81, respectively). The risks for all study outcomes was increased in hemodialysis patients, compared with controls.

Conclusion

Two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine were found less efficient for patients with eGFR&lt;30ml/min/1.73m2. Risk in hemodialysis patients is increased for all outcomes. These results suggest prioritizing patients with eGFR&lt;30ml/min/1.73m2 for booster shots, pre and post exposure prophylaxis, and early COVID-19 therapy.

The burden of long-term complications among adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: An international comparison of two large cohorts

e24059

Background: There is a paucity of information on health outcomes of adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors outside of Northern Europe or North America. We compared long-term health outcomes of Israeli AYA cancer survivors to non-cancer individuals with similar demographics and access to healthcare, estimated the risk of developing chronic health conditions by cancer type, and compared the comorbidity burden in Israeli AYA survivors to AYA cancer survivors from the U.S. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort of 2-year cancer survivors diagnosed with invasive cancer between 15 to 39 years of age from 2000 to 2018 in Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest payer-provider healthcare organization in Israel. Non-cancer CHS participants were matched 4:1 to cancer survivors on age, sex, ethnicity, and membership duration. Health conditions were limited to those requiring medical intervention. Incidence rates for health conditions were determined for the two cohorts, and Poisson regression was used to determine the incidence rate ratio (IRR) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). A sub-population of CHS AYA survivors was used to compare the incidence of chronic health conditions from the Israeli cohort to AYA cancer survivors from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), using Standardized Incidence Rate (SIR). Results: There were 12,674 CHS AYA cancer survivors and 50,696 non-cancer participants. Among survivors, the mean age at diagnosis was 31.02 years (SD: 6.2), 61.7% were female, and 78.4% were Jewish. The most common cancer diagnoses were lymphoma (16.5%), breast (16.4%), and thyroid (14.0%). Cancer survivors were significantly more likely to have any (IRR 1.60 95%CI: 1.54-1.67) or multiple (IRR 1.82 95%CI: 1.72-1.94) chronic health conditions compared to non-cancer participants. Survivors had an increased risk across nearly all examined outcomes, with an especially higher risk for premature ovarian failure (IRR 6.02 95%CI: 2.14-16.91), osteoporosis (IRR 4.74 95%CI: 4.06-5.53), and cardiomyopathy (IRR 4.20 95%CI: 3.35-5.27). We also found clear differences in the risk of specific health conditions by cancer type. Compared to the KPSC cohort, CHS cancer survivors had an overall lower (SIR 0.82 95%CI: 0.79-0.84) incidence of developing any health condition, with noticeably lower incidences of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, chronic liver disease, but higher incidences of cardiopulmonary diseases and osteoporosis. Conclusions: AYA cancer survivors in Israel are at increased risk for developing chronic conditions, compared matched non-cancer individuals, but the overall incidence of was lower when compared to survivors living in the U.S. These findings may allow for refinement of surveillance recommendations for AYA survivors, taking into consideration regional differences in socio-demographics and cancer care.

Incidence of lung cancer following pneumonia in smokers: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is more common in smokers compared with non-smokers. A high 1-year prevalence of lung cancer following hospitalization for pneumonia was demonstrated in heavy smokers.

AIM

To assess the association between hospitalization for pneumonia among ever-smokers and subsequent lung cancer risk.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

METHODS

The study cohort included all ever-smokers aged 55-80 hospitalized for pneumonia between the years 2010-15 covered by a large medical insurer in Israel. Controls were matched to cases by age in a 4:1 ratio. The primary outcome was the association between hospitalization for pneumonia and subsequent 1-year incidence of lung cancer, adjusted for gender, smoking status (past/current) and pack years. Pre-specified sensitivity analyses excluded heavy smokers (smoking history of more than 30 pack years) and patients diagnosed with lung cancer within 30 days of hospitalization, as they probably had clinical or radiological findings suggestive of lung cancer, making them ineligible for screening.

RESULTS

Lung cancer was identified in 275 of 12 807 (2.1%) patients following hospitalization for pneumonia and in 44 of 51 228 (0.1%) controls (adjusted odds ratio 22.46, 95% CI 16.29-30.96, P < 0.001). Among patients hospitalized for pneumonia, 1-year lung cancer incidence remained high after excluding heavy smokers and patients diagnosed within 30 days of the index date (1.3% and 1.4%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalization for pneumonia is associated with high 1-year incidence of lung cancer in ever-smokers, supporting the important role of the widely used practice of performing follow up imaging post-pneumonia to exclude occult malignancy.

Association of Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone Inhibitors with COVID-19 Infection and Disease Severity among Individuals with Hypertension

BACKGROUND

The association between use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone (RAAS) inhibitors and both SARS-CoV-2 infection and the development of severe COVID-19 has been presented in the recent medical literature with inconsistent results.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between RAAS inhibitor use and two outcomes: infection with SARS-CoV-2 (Model 1) and severe COVID-19 among those infected (Model 2).

METHODS

We accessed used electronic health records of individuals from Israel who were receiving anti-hypertensive medications for this retrospective study. For Model 1 we used a case-control design. For Model 2 we used a cohort design. In both models, inverse probability weighting adjusted for identified confounders as part of doubly robust outcome regression.

RESULTS

We tested 38,554 individuals for SARS-CoV-2 who had hypertension and were being treated with medication; 691 had a positive test result. Among those with a positive test, 119 developed severe illness. There was no association between RAAS inhibitor use and a positive test. Use of RAAS inhibitors was associated with a decreased risk for severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [95%CI] 0.29-0.77) compared with users of non-RAAS anti-hypertensive medication. The association remained significant when use of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (adjusted OR 0.46, 95%CI 0.27-0.77) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (adjusted OR 0.39, 95%CI 0.16-0.95) were analyzed separately.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with hypertension using RAAS inhibitors, we found a lower risk of severe disease compared to those using non-RAAS anti-hypertensive medications. This finding suggests that RAAS inhibitors may have a protective effect on COVID-19 severity among individuals with medically treated hypertension.

Comparing COVID-19-related hospitalization rates among individuals with infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity in Israel

With the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing, accurate assessment of population immunity and the effectiveness of booster and enhancer vaccine doses is critical. We compare COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rates in 2,412,755 individuals across four exposure levels: non-recent vaccine immunity (two BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine doses five or more months prior), boosted vaccine immunity (three BNT162b2 doses), infection-induced immunity (previous COVID-19 without a subsequent BNT162b2 dose), and enhanced infection-induced immunity (previous COVID-19 with a subsequent BNT162b2 dose). Rates, adjusted for potential demographic, clinical and health-seeking-behavior confounders, were assessed from July-November 2021 when the Delta variant was predominant. Compared with non-recent vaccine immunity, COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rates were reduced by 89% (87–91%) for boosted vaccine immunity, 66% (50–77%) for infection-induced immunity and 75% (61–83%) for enhanced infection-induced immunity. We demonstrate that infection-induced immunity (enhanced or not) provides more protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization than non-recent vaccine immunity, but less protection than booster vaccination. Additionally, our results suggest that vaccinating individuals with infection-induced immunity further enhances their protection.

The relative degree of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provided by combinations of natural infection, vaccination, and booster doses is unknown. Here, the authors show that infection-induced immunity provides more protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization than non-recent vaccine immunity, but less than booster vaccination.

Short-term Adverse Events After the Third Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults 60 Years or Older

This survey study assesses the occurrence of short-term adverse events in adults 60 years or older who received a booster dose of the BNT162B2 mRNA vaccine.

Validation of Heart Failure-Specific Risk Equations in 1.3 Million Israeli Adults and Usefulness of Combining Ambulatory and Hospitalization Data from a Large Integrated Health Care Organization

Heart failure (HF) prevalence is increasing worldwide and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Guidelines emphasize prevention in those at-risk, but HF-specific risk prediction equations developed in United States population-based cohorts lack external validation in large, real-world datasets outside of the United States. The purpose of this study was to assess the model performance of the pooled cohort equations to prevent HF (PCP-HF) within a contemporary electronic health record for 5- and 10-year risk. Using a retrospective cohort study design of Israeli residents between 2008 and 2018 with continuous membership until end of follow-up, HF, or death, we quantified 5- and 10-year estimated risks of HF using the PCP-HF equations, which integrate demographics (age, gender, and race) and risk factors (body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glucose, medication use for hypertension or diabetes, and smoking status). Of 1,394,411 patients included, 56% were women with mean age of 49.6 (SD 13.2) years. Incident HF occurred in 1.2% and 4.5% of participants over 5 and 10 years of follow-up. The PCP-HF model had excellent discrimination for 5- and 10-year predictions of incident HF (C Statistic 0.82 [0.82 to 0.82] and 0.84 [0.84 to 0.84]), respectively. In conclusion, HF-specific risk equations (PCP-HF) accurately predict the risk of incident HF in ambulatory and hospitalized patients using routinely available clinical data.

Indirect protection of children from SARS-CoV-2 infection through parental vaccination

Children not vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may still benefit from vaccines through protection from vaccinated contacts. We estimated the protection provided to children through parental vaccination with the BNT162b2 vaccine. We studied households without prior infection consisting of two parents and unvaccinated children, estimating the effect of parental vaccination on the risk of infection for unvaccinated children. We studied two periods separately-an early period (17 January 2021 to 28 March 2021; Alpha variant, two doses versus no vaccination) and a late period (11 July 2021 to 30 September 2021; Delta variant, booster dose versus two vaccine doses). We found that having a single vaccinated parent was associated with a 26.0 and a 20.8% decreased risk in the early and late periods, respectively, and having two vaccinated parents was associated with a 71.7 and a 58.1% decreased risk, respectively. Thus, parental vaccination confers substantial protection on unvaccinated children in the household.

Previously undiagnosed cancer in patients with arterial thrombotic events - A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Emerging data suggest increased arterial thrombosis risk in the months preceding a cancer diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether patients without documented vascular risk factors or pre-existing cardiovascular disease have a higher relative risk of cancer 12 months after arterial thrombotic events (ATE), compared to unselected patients.

PATIENTS/METHODS

A population-based cohort study of Clalit Health Services (CHS) database included CHS members ≥25 years without prior cancer or ATE (n = 2 804 584). An iterative matching process selected 10 potential controls chronologically for each consecutive exposed, age- and sex-matched (actual controls drawn 1:1 from a lot). Study exposure, ATE, was defined as ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction or systemic arterial thromboembolism during hospitalization. The outcome was newly-diagnosed cancer within 12 months, based on Israeli national cancer registry. Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression calculated hazard ratio (HR) for outcomes, adjusted for cancer risk factors. Analysis also performed for three subgroups: age ≤50 years; no cardiovascular risk factors; no prior cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

The full ATE and matched control cohorts included 43 108 patients. The 12-month cumulative incidence of cancer (95% confidence interval) was 0.020 (0.019-0.022) in the ATE cohort and 0.012 (0.011-0.013) in controls, corresponding to an adjusted HR of 1.665 (1.489-1.862). The relative risk of cancer was high in all subgroups up to a HR of 3.754 (1.912-7.372) in patients without cardiovascular risk factors.

CONCLUSION

There is an increased risk of previously undiagnosed cancer at 12 months after ATE, especially in patients without documented vascular risk factors or pre-existent cardiovascular disease.

Early effectiveness of BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare personnel in six Israeli hospitals (CoVEHPI)

BACKGROUND

Methodologically rigorous studies on Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection are critically needed to inform national and global policy on Covid-19 vaccine use. In Israel, healthcare personnel (HCP) were initially prioritized for Covid-19 vaccination, creating an ideal setting to evaluate early real-world VE in a closely monitored population.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study among HCP in 6 hospitals to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants filled out weekly symptom questionnaires, provided weekly nasal specimens, and three serology samples - at enrollment, 30 days and 90 days. We estimated VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection using the Cox Proportional Hazards model and against a combined PCR/serology endpoint using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

Of the 1567 HCP enrolled between December 27, 2020 and February 15, 2021, 1250 previously uninfected participants were included in the primary analysis; 998 (79.8%) were vaccinated with their first dose prior to or at enrollment, all with Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. There were four PCR-positive events among vaccinated participants, and nine among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted two-dose VE against any PCR-confirmed infection was 94.5% (95% CI: 82.6%-98.2%); adjusted two-dose VE against a combined endpoint of PCR and seroconversion for a 60-day follow-up period was 94.5% (95% CI: 63.0%-99.0%). Five PCR-positive samples from study participants were sequenced; all were alpha variant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our prospective VE study of HCP in Israel with rigorous weekly surveillance found very high VE for two doses of Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection in recently vaccinated HCP during a period of predominant alpha variant circulation.

FUNDING

Clalit Health Services.

Effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for preventing severe outcomes in Israel: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Many countries are experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19, driven predominantly by the delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2. In response, these countries are considering the administration of a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose to address potential waning immunity over time and reduced effectiveness against the delta variant. We aimed to use the data repositories of Israel's largest health-care organisation to evaluate the effectiveness of a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes.

METHODS

Using data from Clalit Health Services, which provides mandatory health-care coverage for over half of the Israeli population, individuals receiving a third vaccine dose between July 30, 2020, and Sept 23, 2021, were matched (1:1) to demographically and clinically similar controls who did not receive a third dose. Eligible participants had received the second vaccine dose at least 5 months before the recruitment date, had no previous documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, and had no contact with the health-care system in the 3 days before recruitment. Individuals who are health-care workers, live in long-term care facilities, or are medically confined to their homes were excluded. Primary outcomes were COVID-19-related admission to hospital, severe disease, and COVID-19-related death. The third dose effectiveness for each outcome was estimated as 1 - risk ratio using the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

FINDINGS

1 158 269 individuals were eligible to be included in the third dose group. Following matching, the third dose and control groups each included 728 321 individuals. Participants had a median age of 52 years (IQR 37-68) and 51% were female. The median follow-up time was 13 days (IQR 6-21) in both groups. Vaccine effectiveness evaluated at least 7 days after receipt of the third dose, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago, was estimated to be 93% (231 events for two doses vs 29 events for three doses; 95% CI 88-97) for admission to hospital, 92% (157 vs 17 events; 82-97) for severe disease, and 81% (44 vs seven events; 59-97) for COVID-19-related death.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that a third dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective in protecting individuals against severe COVID-19-related outcomes, compared with receiving only two doses at least 5 months ago.

FUNDING

The Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.

Myocarditis after Covid-19 Vaccination in a Large Health Care Organization

BACKGROUND

Reports have suggested an association between the development of myocarditis and the receipt of messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but the frequency and severity of myocarditis after vaccination have not been extensively explored.

METHODS

We searched the database of Clalit Health Services, the largest health care organization (HCO) in Israel, for diagnoses of myocarditis in patients who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech). The diagnosis of myocarditis was adjudicated by cardiologists using the case definition used by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We abstracted the presentation, clinical course, and outcome from the patient's electronic health record. We performed a Kaplan-Meier analysis of the incidence of myocarditis up to 42 days after the first vaccine dose.

RESULTS

Among more than 2.5 million vaccinated HCO members who were 16 years of age or older, 54 cases met the criteria for myocarditis. The estimated incidence per 100,000 persons who had received at least one dose of vaccine was 2.13 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.56 to 2.70). The highest incidence of myocarditis (10.69 cases per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.93 to 14.46) was reported in male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. A total of 76% of cases of myocarditis were described as mild and 22% as intermediate; 1 case was associated with cardiogenic shock. After a median follow-up of 83 days after the onset of myocarditis, 1 patient had been readmitted to the hospital, and 1 had died of an unknown cause after discharge. Of 14 patients who had left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography during admission, 10 still had such dysfunction at the time of hospital discharge. Of these patients, 5 underwent subsequent testing that revealed normal heart function.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients in a large Israeli health care system who had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine, the estimated incidence of myocarditis was 2.13 cases per 100,000 persons; the highest incidence was among male patients between the ages of 16 and 29 years. Most cases of myocarditis were mild or moderate in severity. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).

The association between real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold values, symptoms and disease severity among COVID-19 patients in the community: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 continues to spread throughout the world. Real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to diagnose COVID-19, with its cycle threshold (Ct) value inversely related to the viral load. The association between Ct values and COVID-19 related outcomes has been studied in the hospital setting but less so in the community. We aimed to estimate the association between Ct values and the severity of community-diagnosed COVID-19 to provide evidence on the utility of Ct testing in this setting.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study based on data from Israel's largest health organization. The study population included 34,658 individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 by RT-PCR and had available Ct values between June 1^st and December 21^st, 2020. Outcomes included COVID-19 related symptoms, hospitalization, severe disease, and death. Ct values were modelled both as discrete and continuous exposures.

RESULTS

After adjusting for known risk factors for severe COVID-19, low Ct values were associated with symptomatic disease (odds ratio [OR]: 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.21-1.84), hospitalization (OR: 1.27; 95%CI: 1.12-1.49), severe disease (OR: 1.80; 95%CI: 1.43-2.27), and death (OR: 1.64; 95%CI: 1.06-2.59). By modelling the exposure as continuous, we noticed a dose-response relationship, with the risk gradually rising with lower Ct values.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found a significant association between low Ct values and severe COVID-19 related outcomes, with a dose-response relationship. This suggests that Ct values could be helpful in identifying high-risk patients diagnosed in the community.

Safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Setting

BACKGROUND

Preapproval trials showed that messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) had a good safety profile, yet these trials were subject to size and patient-mix limitations. An evaluation of the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine with respect to a broad range of potential adverse events is needed.

METHODS

We used data from the largest health care organization in Israel to evaluate the safety of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. For each potential adverse event, in a population of persons with no previous diagnosis of that event, we individually matched vaccinated persons to unvaccinated persons according to sociodemographic and clinical variables. Risk ratios and risk differences at 42 days after vaccination were derived with the use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. To place these results in context, we performed a similar analysis involving SARS-CoV-2-infected persons matched to uninfected persons. The same adverse events were studied in the vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection analyses.

RESULTS

In the vaccination analysis, the vaccinated and control groups each included a mean of 884,828 persons. Vaccination was most strongly associated with an elevated risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 3.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.55 to 12.44; risk difference, 2.7 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 1.0 to 4.6), lymphadenopathy (risk ratio, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.05 to 2.78; risk difference, 78.4 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 64.1 to 89.3), appendicitis (risk ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.01; risk difference, 5.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 0.3 to 9.9), and herpes zoster infection (risk ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.73; risk difference, 15.8 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 8.2 to 24.2). SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a substantially increased risk of myocarditis (risk ratio, 18.28; 95% CI, 3.95 to 25.12; risk difference, 11.0 events per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 5.6 to 15.8) and of additional serious adverse events, including pericarditis, arrhythmia, deep-vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombocytopenia.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting, the BNT162b2 vaccine was not associated with an elevated risk of most of the adverse events examined. The vaccine was associated with an excess risk of myocarditis (1 to 5 events per 100,000 persons). The risk of this potentially serious adverse event and of many other serious adverse events was substantially increased after SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by the Ivan and Francesca Berkowitz Family Living Laboratory Collaboration at Harvard Medical School and Clalit Research Institute.).

The Prognostic Role of Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio in Patients Hospitalized with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Early risk stratification is essential for determining the appropriate therapeutic management approach of pulmonary embolism (PE). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients hospitalized with acute pulmonary embolism by investigating its association with mortality in a large-scale population diagnosed and hospitalized with acute PE. We retrieved all consecutive patients hospitalized in an internal medicine department or an intensive care unit in a tertiary medical center from December 2007 to April 2021 with a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism. A total of 2072 patients were included. Patients with above-median NLR (i.e., 5.12) had a higher 30-day mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.14–3.70) and higher one-year mortality risk (aOR, 2.51; 95% CI 2.04–3.08). Similar trends were demonstrated in a sub-analysis of patients without cancer and hemodynamically stable (i.e., systolic blood pressure over 90 mmHg). Furthermore, the median hospital length of stay in patients with an elevated NLR was higher, and so was the in-hospital mortality rate. Elevated NLR in acute PE is associated with a worse short-term and long-term prognosis and with a longer duration of hospitalization.

Bladder Cancer Immunotherapy by BCG Is Associated with a Significantly Reduced Risk of Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease

Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG) is a live attenuated form of Mycobacterium bovis that was developed 100 years ago as a vaccine against tuberculosis (TB) and has been used ever since to vaccinate children globally. It has also been used as the first-line treatment in patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), through repeated intravesical applications. Numerous studies have shown that BCG induces off-target immune effects in various pathologies. Accumulating data argue for the critical role of the immune system in the course of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD). In this study, we tested whether repeated exposure to BCG during the treatment of NMIBC is associated with the risk of developing AD and PD. We presented a multi-center retrospective cohort study with patient data collected between 2000 and 2019 that included 12,185 bladder cancer (BC) patients, of which 2301 BCG-treated patients met all inclusion criteria, with a follow-up of 3.5 to 7 years. We considered the diagnosis date of AD and nonvascular dementia cases for BC patients. The BC patients were partitioned into those who underwent a transurethral resection of the bladder tumor followed by BCG therapy, and a disjoint group that had not received such treatment. By applying Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression and competing for risk analyses, we found that BCG treatment was associated with a significantly reduced risk of developing AD, especially in the population aged 75 years or older. The older population (≥75 years, 1578 BCG treated, and 5147 controls) showed a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.726 (95% CI: 0.529–0.996; p-value = 0.0473). While in a hospital-based cohort, BCG treatment resulted in an HR of 0.416 (95% CI: 0.203–0.853; p-value = 0.017), indicating a 58% lower risk of developing AD. The risk of developing PD showed the same trend with a 28% reduction in BCG-treated patients, while no BCG beneficial effect was observed for other age-related events such as Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and stroke. We attributed BCG’s beneficial effect on neurodegenerative diseases to a possible activation of long-term nonspecific immune effects. We proposed a prospective study in elderly people for testing intradermic BCG inoculation as a potential protective agent against AD and PD.

BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine in a Nationwide Mass Vaccination Setting

BACKGROUND

As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel's largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.

METHODS

All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19-related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

RESULTS

Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19-related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.

Addressing bias in prediction models by improving subpopulation calibration

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate the problem of subpopulation miscalibration, to adapt an algorithm for recalibration of the predictions, and to validate its performance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated the calibration of predictions based on the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by the intersection of age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and immigration history. We next applied the recalibration algorithm and assessed the change in calibration metrics, including calibration-in-the-large.

RESULTS

1 021 041 patients were included in the PCE population, and 1 116 324 patients were included in the FRAX population. Baseline overall model calibration of the 2 tested models was good, but calibration in a substantial portion of the subpopulations was poor. After applying the algorithm, subpopulation calibration statistics were greatly improved, with the variance of the calibration-in-the-large values across all subpopulations reduced by 98.8% and 94.3% in the PCE and FRAX models, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Prediction models in medicine are increasingly common. Calibration, the agreement between predicted and observed risks, is commonly poor for subpopulations that were underrepresented in the development set of the models, resulting in bias and reduced performance for these subpopulations. In this work, we empirically evaluated an adapted version of the fairness algorithm designed by Hebert-Johnson et al. (2017) and demonstrated its use in improving subpopulation miscalibration.

CONCLUSION

A postprocessing and model-independent fairness algorithm for recalibration of predictive models greatly decreases the bias of subpopulation miscalibration and thus increases fairness and equality.

Myocardial injury in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection-Risk factors and outcomes

Myocardial injury in hospitalized patients is associated with poor prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors for myocardial injury in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its prognostic value. We retrieved all consecutive patients who were hospitalized in internal medicine departments in a tertiary medical center from February 9th, 2020 to August 28th with a diagnosis of COVID-19. A total of 559 adult patients were hospitalized in the Sheba Medical Center with a diagnosis of COVID-19, 320 (57.24%) of whom were tested for troponin levels within 24-hours of admission, and 91 (28.44%) had elevated levels. Predictors for elevated troponin levels were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.06), female sex (OR, 3.03; 95% CI 1.54-6.25), low systolic blood pressure (OR, 5.91; 95% CI 2.42-14.44) and increased creatinine level (OR, 2.88; 95% CI 1.44-5.73). The risk for death (hazard ratio [HR] 4.32, 95% CI 2.08-8.99) and a composite outcome of invasive ventilation support and death (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.15-3.37) was significantly higher among patients who had elevated troponin levels. In conclusion, in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, elevated troponin levels are associated with poor prognosis. Hence, troponin levels may be used as an additional tool for risk stratification and a decision guide in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

Do patients with ureterolithiasis treated conservatively return to follow up?

INTRODUCTION Distal ureteral stones (DUS) are common in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with renal colic. The majority of DUS will pass spontaneously and therefore conservative care is common. Follow up is imperative as some of these stones might not pass and potentially lead to complications. The aim of our study was to evaluate the rate of compliance with follow up and to find predictive variables for it.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively surveyed the medical records of all patients who had a non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) at our ED between 01/03/16 and 31/5/17. We included patients with a DUS smaller than 10 mm that were treated conservatively. We obtained demographic, clinical, laboratory and imaging data. Compliance to follow up was evaluated by surveying the medical records and by calling the patients. We then compared the characteristics of patients who returned for follow up to those who did not.

RESULTS

A total of 230 consecutive patients were included in our cohort: 194 (84%) patients were male and the average age was 46 y (21-82); 138 patients (60%) returned for a follow up visit while 92 patients (40%) did not. Univariate analysis revealed stone size and admission to hospital to be predictive of compliance to follow up while multivariate analysis revealed only hospital admission to be predictive of compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Only 60% of the patients with DUS treated conservatively return for a follow up visit. Hospital admission, which likely reflects appropriate patients counseling by a urologist and adequate follow up scheduling, was found to be associated with increased compliance with follow up.

Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available

At the COVID-19 pandemic onset, when individual-level data of COVID-19 patients were not yet available, there was already a need for risk predictors to support prevention and treatment decisions. Here, we report a hybrid strategy to create such a predictor, combining the development of a baseline severe respiratory infection risk predictor and a post-processing method to calibrate the predictions to reported COVID-19 case-fatality rates. With the accumulation of a COVID-19 patient cohort, this predictor is validated to have good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.943) and calibration (markedly improved compared to that of the baseline predictor). At a 5% risk threshold, 15% of patients are marked as high-risk, achieving a sensitivity of 88%. We thus demonstrate that even at the onset of a pandemic, shrouded in epidemiologic fog of war, it is possible to provide a useful risk predictor, now widely used in a large healthcare organization.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Influenza-associated Hospitalizations During Pregnancy: A Multi-country Retrospective Test Negative Design Study, 2010-2016

BACKGROUND

To date, no study has examined influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations during pregnancy.

METHODS

The Pregnancy Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (PREVENT) consisted of public health or healthcare systems with integrated laboratory, medical, and vaccination records in Australia, Canada (Alberta and Ontario), Israel, and the United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Sites identified pregnant women aged 18 through 50 years whose pregnancies overlapped with local influenza seasons from 2010 through 2016. Administrative data were used to identify hospitalizations with acute respiratory or febrile illness (ARFI) and clinician-ordered real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing for influenza viruses. Overall IVE was estimated using the test-negative design and adjusting for site, season, season timing, and high-risk medical conditions.

RESULTS

Among 19450 hospitalizations with an ARFI discharge diagnosis (across 25 site-specific study seasons), only 1030 (6%) of the pregnant women were tested for influenza viruses by rRT-PCR. Approximately half of these women had pneumonia or influenza discharge diagnoses (54%). Influenza A or B virus infections were detected in 598/1030 (58%) of the ARFI hospitalizations with influenza testing. Across sites and seasons, 13% of rRT-PCR-confirmed influenza-positive pregnant women were vaccinated compared with 22% of influenza-negative pregnant women; the adjusted overall IVE was 40% (95% confidence interval = 12%-59%) against influenza-associated hospitalization during pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

Between 2010 and 2016, influenza vaccines offered moderate protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations during pregnancy, which may further inform the benefits of maternal influenza vaccination programs.

Automated opportunistic osteoporotic fracture risk assessment using computed tomography scans to aid in FRAX underutilization

Methods for identifying patients at high risk for osteoporotic fractures, including dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)^1,2 and risk predictors like the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)^3-6, are underutilized. We assessed the feasibility of automatic, opportunistic fracture risk evaluation based on routine abdomen or chest computed tomography (CT) scans. A CT-based predictor was created using three automatically generated bone imaging biomarkers (vertebral compression fractures (VCFs), simulated DXA T-scores and lumbar trabecular density) and CT metadata of age and sex. A cohort of 48,227 individuals (51.8% women) aged 50-90 with available CTs before 2012 (index date) were assessed for 5-year fracture risk using FRAX with no bone mineral density (BMD) input (FRAXnb) and the CT-based predictor. Predictions were compared to outcomes of major osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures during 2012-2017 (follow-up period). Compared with FRAXnb, the major osteoporotic fracture CT-based predictor presented better receiver operating characteristic area under curve (AUC), sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) (+1.9%, +2.4% and +0.7%, respectively). The AUC, sensitivity and PPV measures of the hip fracture CT-based predictor were noninferior to FRAXnb at a noninferiority margin of 1%. When FRAXnb inputs are not available, the initial evaluation of fracture risk can be done completely automatically based on a single abdomen or chest CT, which is often available for screening candidates^7,8.

Estimating Vaccine Effectiveness Against Hospitalized Influenza During Pregnancy: Multicountry Protocol for a Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Although pregnant women are believed to have elevated risks of severe influenza infection and are targeted for influenza vaccination, no study to date has examined influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations during pregnancy, primarily because this outcome poses many methodological challenges.

Objective

The Pregnancy Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network (PREVENT) was formed in 2016 as an international collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Abt Associates; and study sites in Australia, Canada, Israel, and the United States. The primary goal of this collaboration is to estimate IVE in preventing acute respiratory or febrile illness (ARFI) hospitalizations associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection during pregnancy. Secondary aims include (1) describing the incidence, clinical course, and severity of influenza-associated ARFI hospitalization during pregnancy; (2) comparing the characteristics of ARFI-hospitalized pregnant women who were tested for influenza with those who were not tested; (3) describing influenza vaccination coverage in pregnant women; and (4) comparing birth outcomes among women with laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization versus other noninfluenza ARFI hospitalizations.

Methods

For an initial assessment of IVE, sites identified a retrospective cohort of pregnant women aged from 18 to 50 years whose pregnancies overlapped with local influenza seasons from 2010 to 2016. Pregnancies were defined as those that ended in a live birth or stillbirth of at least 20 weeks gestation. The analytic sample for the primary IVE analysis was restricted to pregnant women who were hospitalized for ARFI during site-specific influenza seasons and clinically tested for influenza virus infection using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction.

Results

We identified approximately 2 million women whose pregnancies overlapped with influenza seasons; 550,344 had at least one hospitalization during this time. After restricting to women who were hospitalized for ARFI and tested for influenza, the IVE analytic sample included 1005 women.

Conclusions

In addition to addressing the primary question about the effectiveness of influenza vaccination, PREVENT data will address other important knowledge gaps including understanding the incidence, clinical course, and severity of influenza-related hospitalizations during pregnancy. The data infrastructure and international partnerships created for these analyses may be useful and informative for future influenza studies.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/11333

Prediction of acute myeloid leukaemia risk in healthy individuals

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure1. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)4-8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

The incidence of acute pulmonary embolism following syncope in anticoagulant-naïve patients: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

A recently published, large prospective study showed unexpectedly high prevalence of acute pulmonary embolism (APE) among patients hospitalized for syncope. In such a case, a high incidence of recurrent pulmonary embolism is expected among patients who were discharged without APE workup.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence of symptomatic APE among patients hospitalized for a first episode of syncope and discharged without APE workup or anticoagulation.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients hospitalized at Rambam Health Care Campus between January 2006 and February 2017 with a primary admission diagnosis of syncope, who were not investigated for APE and were not taking anticoagulants. The patients were followed up for up to three years after discharge. The occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) during the follow-up period was documented.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 33 months. 1,126 subjects completed a three-year follow-up. During this period, 38 patients (3.38%) developed VTE, 17 (1.51%) of them had APE. The cumulative incidence of VTE and APE was 1.9% (95% CI 1.3%-2.5%) and 0.9% (95% CI 0.4%-1.3%) respectively. Only seven subjects developed APE during the first year of follow-up. The median times from the event of syncope to the development of APE and VTE were 18 and 19 months respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The cumulative incidence of VTE during a three-year follow-up period after an episode of syncope is low. In the absence of clinical suspicion, a routine diagnostic workup for APE in patients with syncope cannot be recommended.