Risks of acquiring and transmitting sexually transmitted diseases in sexual partner networks

Dynamics of Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission among female sex workers and clients: A mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to examine the transmission dynamics of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) in heterosexual sex work networks (HSWNs) and the impact of variation in sexual behavior and interventions on NG epidemiology.

METHODS

The study employed an individual-based mathematical model to simulate NG transmission dynamics in sexual networks involving female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients, primarily focusing on the Middle East and North Africa region. A deterministic model was also used to describe NG transmission from clients to their spouses.

RESULTS

NG epidemiology in HSWNs displays two distinct patterns. In the common low-partner-number HSWNs, a significant proportion of NG incidence occurs among FSWs, with NG prevalence 13 times higher among FSWs than clients, and three times higher among clients than their spouses. Interventions substantially reduce incidence. Increasing condom use from 10 % to 50 % lowers NG prevalence among FSWs, clients, and their spouses from 12.2 % to 6.4 %, 1.2 % to 0.5 %, and 0.4 % to 0.2 %, respectively. Increasing symptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 100 % decreases prevalence from 10.6 % to 4.5 %, 0.8 % to 0.4 %, and 0.3 % to 0.1 %, respectively. Increasing asymptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 50 % decreases prevalence from 8.2 % to 0.4 %, 0.6 % to 0.1 %, and 0.2 % to 0.0 %, respectively, with very low prevalence when coverage exceeds 50 %. In high-partner-number HSWNs, prevalence among FSWs saturates at a high level, and the vast majority of incidence occurs among clients and their spouses, with a limited impact of incremental increases in interventions.

CONCLUSION

NG epidemiology in HSWNs is typically a "fragile epidemiology" that is responsive to a range of interventions even if the interventions are incremental, partially efficacious, and only applied to FSWs.

Understanding dynamics and overlapping epidemiologies of HIV, HSV-2, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men

Introduction

We aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI.

Methods

An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC).

Results

A total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74-0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48-0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49-0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and < 0.1%, respectively. For lifetime exposure to these infections, these proportions were 13.6, 21.0, 22.9, 24.3, 13.4, and 4.8%, respectively.

Conclusion

STI epidemiologies demonstrate substantial overlap and associations, alongside nuanced differences that shape a unique pattern for each STI. Gonorrhea exhibits an "intermediate STI epidemiology," reflected by the highest average correlation coefficient with other STIs.

Cattle transport network predicts endemic and epidemic foot-and-mouth disease risk on farms in Turkey

The structure of contact networks affects the likelihood of disease spread at the population scale and the risk of infection at any given node. Though this has been well characterized for both theoretical and empirical networks for the spread of epidemics on completely susceptible networks, the long-term impact of network structure on risk of infection with an endemic pathogen, where nodes can be infected more than once, has been less well characterized. Here, we analyze detailed records of the transportation of cattle among farms in Turkey to characterize the global and local attributes of the directed—weighted shipments network between 2007-2012. We then study the correlations between network properties and the likelihood of infection with, or exposure to, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) over the same time period using recorded outbreaks. The shipments network shows a complex combination of features (local and global) that have not been previously reported in other networks of shipments; i.e. small-worldness, scale-freeness, modular structure, among others. We find that nodes that were either infected or at high risk of infection with FMD (within one link from an infected farm) had disproportionately higher degree, were more central (eigenvector centrality and coreness), and were more likely to be net recipients of shipments compared to those that were always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. High in-degree (i.e. many shipments received) was the best univariate predictor of infection. Low in-coreness (i.e. peripheral nodes) was the best univariate predictor of nodes always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. These results are robust across the three different serotypes of FMD observed in Turkey and during periods of low-endemic prevalence and high-prevalence outbreaks.

Contact network epidemiology has been extensively used in the context of infectious diseases, primarily focusing on epidemic diseases. In this paper we use detailed recorded data about cattle exchange between farms in Turkey from 2007 to 2012, to build, analyze and characterize the directed-weighted complex network of shipments of cattle. Additionally, using outbreaks data about recorded cases of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Turkey, we assess the correlation between the “farm’s” position in the network (importance) and the risk of being infected with FMD, which has been endemic in Turkey for a long time. We find some network measures that are more likely to identify high-risk and low-risk farms (in-degree and in-coreness, respectively) when proposing strategies for surveillance or containment of an infectious disease.

HIV incidence and impact of interventions among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of HIV infection among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa is not well known. We aimed to assess HIV incidence, the contribution of heterosexual sex work networks to these numbers, and the effect of interventions by use of mathematical modelling.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a novel, individual-based model to simulate HIV epidemic dynamics in heterosexual sex work networks. We applied this model to 12 countries in the Middle East and north Africa that had sufficient data to estimate incidence in 2020 and the impact of interventions by 2030 (Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen). Model-input parameters were provided through a systematic review of HIV prevalence, sexual and injecting behaviours, and risk group size estimates of female sex workers and clients. Model output was number of incident HIV infections under different modelling scenarios for each country. Summary statistics were generated on these model output scenarios.

FINDINGS

Based on the output of our model, we estimated a total of 14 604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] CI 7929-31 819) new HIV infections in the 12 countries in 2020 among female sex workers, clients, and spouses, which constituted 28·1% of 51 995 total new cases in all adults in these 12 countries combined. Model-estimated number of new infections in 2020 in the 12 countries combined was 3471 (95% UI 1295-10 308) in female sex workers, 6416 (3144-14 223) in clients, and 4717 (3490-7288) in client spouses. Contribution of incidence in heterosexual sex work networks to total incidence varied widely, ranging from 3·3% in Pakistan to 71·8% in South Sudan and 72·7% in Djibouti. Incidence in heterosexual sex work networks was distributed roughly equally among female sex workers, clients, and client spouses. Estimated incidence rates among female sex workers per 1000 person-years ranged from 0·4 (95% UI 0·0-7·1) in Yemen to 34·3 (17·2-59·6) in South Sudan. In countries where HIV acquisition through injecting drug use creates substantial exposure for female sex workers who inject drugs, estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 5·1 (95% UI 0·0-35·1) in Iran to 45·8 (0·0-428·6) in Pakistan. The model output predicted that any of the programmed interventions would substantially reduce incidence. Even when a subpopulation did not benefit directly from an intervention, it benefited indirectly through reduction in onward transmission, and indirect impact was often half as large as the direct impact.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial HIV incidence occurs in heterosexual sex work networks across the Middle East and north Africa with client spouses being heavily affected, in addition to female sex workers and clients. Rapid scaling-up of comprehensive treatment and prevention services for female sex workers is urgently needed.

FUNDING

Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation), the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core at the Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar University-Marubeni, the UK Medical Research Council, and the UK Department for International Development.

Concurrency measures in the era of temporal network epidemiology: a review

Diseases spread over temporal networks of interaction events between individuals. Structures of these temporal networks hold the keys to understanding epidemic propagation. One early concept of the literature to aid in discussing these structures is concurrency-quantifying individuals' tendency to form time-overlapping 'partnerships'. Although conflicting evaluations and an overabundance of operational definitions have marred the history of concurrency, it remains important, especially in the area of sexually transmitted infections. Today, much of theoretical epidemiology uses more direct models of contact patterns, and there is an emerging body of literature trying to connect methods to the concurrency literature. In this review, we will cover the development of the concept of concurrency and these new approaches.

Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

Background

Variation in host attributes that influence their contact rates and infectiousness can lead some individuals to make disproportionate contributions to the spread of infections. Understanding the roles of such ‘superspreaders’ can be crucial in deciding where to direct disease surveillance and controls to greatest effect. In the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain, it has been suggested that a minority of cattle farms or herds might make disproportionate contributions to the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, and hence might be considered ‘superspreader farms’.

Objectives and Methods

We review the literature to identify the characteristics of farms that have the potential to contribute to exceptional values in the three main components of the farm reproductive number ‐ R_f: contact rate, infectiousness and duration of infectiousness, and therefore might characterize potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

Results

Farms exhibit marked heterogeneity in contact rates arising from between‐farm trading of cattle. A minority of farms act as trading hubs that greatly augment connections within cattle trading networks. Herd infectiousness might be increased by high within‐herd transmission or the presence of supershedding individuals, or infectiousness might be prolonged due to undetected infections or by repeated local transmission, via wildlife or fomites.

Conclusions

Targeting control methods on putative superspreader farms might yield disproportionate benefits in controlling endemic bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. However, real‐time identification of any such farms, and integration of controls with industry practices, present analytical, operational and policy challenges.

Concurrence and selection of sexual partners as predictors of condom use among Mexican indigenous migrant workers

OBJECTIVE

To identify if the selection of mixed sexual partners and the existence of concurrent partners are predictors of condom use in indigenous migrant agricultural workers from Colima, Mexico.

METHODS

Analytical cross-sectional study using an egocentric sexual network approach. Community interviewers applied a structured questionnaire to 192 indigenous migrant workers in a sugarcane agro-industrial context. Data were analyzed with binary logistic regression; odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI 95%) were estimated.

RESULTS

In the logistic regression model, adjusted odds (OR; 95% CI) of steady condom use were lower within partnerships of the same indigenous ethnicity compared to other partnerships (0.30; 0.17-0.53), partnerships that were concurrent to other partnerships (0.27; 0.15-0.50), and partnerships that used illegal drugs during sex to other partnerships (0.23; 0.11-0.49). Those variables were actually associated with increased risk of unprotected sex (occasionally or never using condoms), and therefore exposures were unprotected.

CONCLUSION

Sexual partners of the same ethnicity, concurrent partnerships and partnerships that use illegal drugs favor the low frequency of constant condom use and, in turn, the vulnerability to STIs and HIV transmission in indigenous migrant agricultural workers.

A dynamic power-law sexual network model of gonorrhoea outbreaks

Human networks of sexual contacts are dynamic by nature, with partnerships forming and breaking continuously over time. Sexual behaviours are also highly heterogeneous, so that the number of partners reported by individuals over a given period of time is typically distributed as a power-law. Both the dynamism and heterogeneity of sexual partnerships are likely to have an effect in the patterns of spread of sexually transmitted diseases. To represent these two fundamental properties of sexual networks, we developed a stochastic process of dynamic partnership formation and dissolution, which results in power-law numbers of partners over time. Model parameters can be set to produce realistic conditions in terms of the exponent of the power-law distribution, of the number of individuals without relationships and of the average duration of relationships. Using an outbreak of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea amongst men have sex with men as a case study, we show that our realistic dynamic network exhibits different properties compared to the frequently used static networks or homogeneous mixing models. We also consider an approximation to our dynamic network model in terms of a much simpler branching process. We estimate the parameters of the generation time distribution and offspring distribution which can be used for example in the context of outbreak reconstruction based on genomic data. Finally, we investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population.

Using an agent-based model to evaluate the effect of producer specialization on the epidemiological resilience of livestock production networks

An agent-based computer model that builds representative regional U.S. hog production networks was developed and employed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing trend towards increased producer specialization upon network-level resilience to catastrophic disease outbreaks. Empirical analyses suggest that the spatial distribution and connectivity patterns of contact networks often predict epidemic spreading dynamics. Our model heuristically generates realistic systems composed of hog producer, feed mill, and slaughter plant agents. Network edges are added during each run as agents exchange livestock and feed. The heuristics governing agents’ contact patterns account for factors including their industry roles, physical proximities, and the age of their livestock. In each run, an infection is introduced, and may spread according to probabilities associated with the various modes of contact. For each of three treatments—defined by one-phase, two-phase, and three-phase production systems—a parameter variation experiment examines the impact of the spatial density of producer agents in the system upon the length and size of disease outbreaks. Resulting data show phase transitions whereby, above some density threshold, systemic outbreaks become possible, echoing findings from percolation theory. Data analysis reveals that multi-phase production systems are vulnerable to catastrophic outbreaks at lower spatial densities, have more abrupt percolation transitions, and are characterized by less-predictable outbreak scales and durations. Key differences in network-level metrics shed light on these results, suggesting that the absence of potentially-bridging producer–producer edges may be largely responsible for the superior disease resilience of single-phase “farrow to finish” production systems.

Ethnicity and sexual risk in heterosexual people attending sexual health clinics in England: a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire study

Objectives

In the UK, people of black ethnicity experience a disproportionate burden of HIV and STI. We aimed to assess the association of ethnicity with sexual behaviour and sexual health among women and heterosexual men attending genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in England.

Methods

The Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV is a cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire study of HIV negative people recruited from 20 GUM clinics in England, 2013–2014. Modified Poisson regression with robust SEs was used to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for the association between ethnicity and various sexual risk behaviours, adjusted for age, study region, education and relationship status.

Results

Questionnaires were completed by 1146 individuals, 676 women and 470 heterosexual men. Ethnicity was recorded for 1131 (98.8%) participants: 550 (48.6%) black/mixed African, 168 (14.9%) black/mixed Caribbean, 308 (27.2%) white ethnic groups, 105 (9.3%) other ethnicity. Compared with women from white ethnic groups, black/mixed African women were less likely to report condomless sex with a non-regular partner (aPR (95% CI) 0.67 (0.51 to 0.88)), black/mixed African and black/mixed Caribbean women were less likely to report two or more new partners (0.42 (0.32 to 0.55) and 0.44 (0.29 to 0.65), respectively), and black/mixed Caribbean women were more likely to report an STI diagnosis (1.56 (1.00 to 2.42)). Compared with men from white ethnic groups, black/mixed Caribbean men were more likely to report an STI diagnosis (1.91 (1.20 to 3.04)), but did not report risk behaviours more frequently. Men and women of black/mixed Caribbean ethnicity remained more likely to report STI history after adjustment for sexual risk behaviours.

Discussion

Risk behaviours were reported less frequently by women of black ethnicity; however, history of STI was more prevalent among black/mixed Caribbean women. In black/mixed Caribbean men, higher STI history was not explained by ethnic variation in reported risk behaviours. The association between STI and black/mixed Caribbean ethnicity remained after adjustment for risk behaviours.

The impact of HIV infection and socioeconomic factors on the incidence of gonorrhea: A county-level, US-wide analysis

Background

Gonorrhea is the second most commonly reported identifiable disease in the United States (U.S.). Importantly, more than 25% of gonorrheal infections demonstrate antibiotic resistance, leading the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to classify gonorrhea as an “urgent threat”.

Methods

We examined the association of gonorrhea infection rates with the incidence of HIV and socioeconomic factors. A county-level multivariable model was then constructed.

Results

Multivariable analysis demonstrated that HIV incidence [Coefficient (Coeff): 1.26, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.86, 1.66, P<0.001] exhibited the most powerful independent association with the incidence of gonorrhea and predicted 40% of the observed variation in gonorrhea infection rates. Sociodemographic factors like county urban ranking (Coeff: 0.12, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.20, P = 0.005), percentage of women (Coeff: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.53, P<0.001) and percentage of individuals under the poverty line (Coeff: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.32, 0.57, P<0.001) exerted a secondary impact. A regression model that incorporated these variables predicted 56% of the observed variation in gonorrhea incidence (Pmodel<0.001, R² model = 0.56).

Conclusions

Gonorrhea and HIV infection exhibited a powerful correlation thus emphasizing the benefits of comprehensive screening for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the value of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV among patients visiting an STI clinic. Furthermore, sociodemographic factors also impacted gonorrhea incidence, thus suggesting another possible focus for public health initiatives.

Inference on network statistics by restricting to the network space: applications to sexual history data

Analysis of sexual history data intended to describe sexual networks presents many challenges arising from the fact that most surveys collect information on only a very small fraction of the population of interest. In addition, partners are rarely identified and responses are subject to reporting biases. Typically, each network statistic of interest, such as mean number of sexual partners for men or women, is estimated independently of other network statistics. There is, however, a complex relationship among networks statistics; and knowledge of these relationships can aid in addressing concerns mentioned earlier. We develop a novel method that constrains a posterior predictive distribution of a collection of network statistics in order to leverage the relationships among network statistics in making inference about network properties of interest. The method ensures that inference on network properties is compatible with an actual network. Through extensive simulation studies, we also demonstrate that use of this method can improve estimates in settings where there is uncertainty that arises both from sampling and from systematic reporting bias compared with currently available approaches to estimation. To illustrate the method, we apply it to estimate network statistics using data from the Chicago Health and Social Life Survey. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

HCV prevalence can predict HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs: mathematical modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV are both transmitted through percutaneous exposures among people who inject drugs (PWID). Ecological analyses on global epidemiological data have identified a positive association between HCV and HIV prevalence among PWID. Our objective was to demonstrate how HCV prevalence can be used to predict HIV epidemic potential among PWID.

METHODS

Two population-level models were constructed to simulate the evolution of HCV and HIV epidemics among PWID. The models described HCV and HIV parenteral transmission, and were solved both deterministically and stochastically.

RESULTS

The modeling results provided a good fit to the epidemiological data describing the ecological HCV and HIV association among PWID. HCV was estimated to be eight times more transmissible per shared injection than HIV. A threshold HCV prevalence of 29.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 20.7-39.8) and 46.5% (95% UI: 37.6-56.6) were identified for a sustainable HIV epidemic (HIV prevalence >1%) and concentrated HIV epidemic (HIV prevalence >5%), respectively. The association between HCV and HIV was further described with six dynamical regimes depicting the overlapping epidemiology of the two infections, and was quantified using defined and estimated measures of association. Modeling predictions across a wide range of HCV prevalence indicated overall acceptable precision in predicting HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. Modeling predictions were found to be robust with respect to stochasticity and behavioral and biological parameter uncertainty. In an illustrative application of the methodology, the modeling predictions of endemic HIV prevalence in Iran agreed with the scale and time course of the HIV epidemic in this country.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that HCV prevalence can be used as a proxy biomarker of HIV epidemic potential among PWID, and that the scale and evolution of HIV epidemic expansion can be predicted with sufficient precision to inform HIV policy, programming, and resource allocation.

Young women's sexual involvement in emerging adulthood

Using data from the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life Study, this study examined the association of peer, family, attitudinal, aspirational, and attainment factors relevant to 820 young women's (aged 18-19) number of sexual partners. Overall, this study found that perceived peer norms and early onset of sexual initiation had a positive and statistically significant association with the respondents' number of lifetime sexual partners. While high school performance and college aspirations were inversely associated with the number of lifetime partners, their current level of educational attainment was not. Finally, racial disparities in the accrual of partners were contingent upon the respondents' attitude to premarital abstinence and educationally related factors. Understanding risk and protective factors may help public health policy planners and health care professionals formulate a more effective ecologically based approach to mitigate sexual health risks and social repercussion related to dating for young women.

Spread of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Among Illinois Healthcare Facilities: The Role of Patient Sharing

BACKGROUND

Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) spread regionally throughout healthcare facilities through patient transfer and cause difficult-to-treat infections. We developed a state-wide patient-sharing matrix and applied social network analyses to determine whether greater connectedness (centrality) to other healthcare facilities and greater patient sharing with long-term acute care hospitals (LTACHs) predicted higher facility CRE rates.

METHODS

We combined CRE case information from the Illinois extensively drug-resistant organism registry with measures of centrality calculated from a state-wide hospital discharge dataset to predict facility-level CRE rates, adjusting for hospital size and geographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Higher CRE rates were observed among facilities with greater patient sharing, as measured by degree centrality. Each additional hospital connection (unit of degree) conferred a 6% increase in CRE rate in rural facilities (relative risk [RR] = 1.056; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.030-1.082) and a 3% increase among Chicagoland and non-Chicago urban facilities (RR = 1.027; 95% CI, 1.002-1.052 and RR = 1.025; 95% CI, 1.002-1.048, respectively). Sharing 4 or more patients with LTACHs was associated with higher CRE rates, but this association may have been due to chance (RR = 2.08; 95% CI, .85-5.08; P = .11).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitals with greater connectedness to other hospitals in a statewide patient-sharing network had higher CRE burden. Centrality had a greater effect on CRE rates in rural counties, which do not have LTACHs. Social network analysis likely identifies hospitals at higher risk of CRE exposure, enabling focused clinical and public health interventions.

Design and methods of a social network isolation study for reducing respiratory infection transmission: The eX-FLU cluster randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Social networks are increasingly recognized as important points of intervention, yet relatively few intervention studies of respiratory infection transmission have utilized a network design. Here we describe the design, methods, and social network structure of a randomized intervention for isolating respiratory infection cases in a university setting over a 10-week period.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

590 students in six residence halls enrolled in the eX-FLU study during a chain-referral recruitment process from September 2012-January 2013. Of these, 262 joined as "seed" participants, who nominated their social contacts to join the study, of which 328 "nominees" enrolled. Participants were cluster-randomized by 117 residence halls. Participants were asked to respond to weekly surveys on health behaviors, social interactions, and influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms. Participants were randomized to either a 3-Day dorm room isolation intervention or a control group (no isolation) upon illness onset. ILI cases reported on their isolation behavior during illness and provided throat and nasal swab specimens at onset, day-three, and day-six of illness. A subsample of individuals (N=103) participated in a sub-study using a novel smartphone application, iEpi, which collected sensor and contextually-dependent survey data on social interactions. Within the social network, participants were significantly positively assortative by intervention group, enrollment type, residence hall, iEpi participation, age, gender, race, and alcohol use (all P<0.002).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We identified a feasible study design for testing the impact of isolation from social networks in a university setting. These data provide an unparalleled opportunity to address questions about isolation and infection transmission, as well as insights into social networks and behaviors among college-aged students. Several important lessons were learned over the course of this project, including feasible isolation durations, the need for extensive organizational efforts, as well as the need for specialized programmers and server space for managing survey and smartphone data.

Population sexual behavior and HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa: missing links?

OBJECTIVES

Patterns of sexual partnering should shape HIV transmission in human populations. The objective of this study was to assess empirical associations between population casual sex behavior and HIV prevalence, and between different measures of casual sex behavior.

METHODS

An ecological study design was applied to nationally representative data, those of the Demographic and Health Surveys, in 25 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Spearman rank correlation was used to assess different correlations for males and females and their statistical significance.

RESULTS

Correlations between HIV prevalence and means and variances of the number of casual sex partners were positive, but small and statistically insignificant. The majority of correlations across means and variances of the number of casual sex partners were positive, large, and statistically significant. However, all correlations between the means, as well as variances, and the variance of unmarried females were weak and statistically insignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

Population sexual behavior was not predictive of HIV prevalence across these countries. Nevertheless, the strong correlations across means and variances of sexual behavior suggest that self-reported sexual data are self-consistent and convey valid information content. Unmarried female behavior seemed puzzling, but could be playing an influential role in HIV transmission patterns.

Sampling dynamic networks with application to investigation of HIV epidemic drivers

We propose a method for randomly sampling dynamic networks that permits isolation of the impact of different network features on processes that propagate on networks. The new methods permit uniform sampling of dynamic networks in ways that ensure that they are consistent with both a given cumulative network and with specified values for constraints on the dynamic network properties. Development of such methods is challenging because modifying one network property will generally tend to modify others as well. Methods to sample constrained dynamic networks are particularly useful in the investigation of network-based interventions that target and modify specific dynamic network properties, especially in settings where the whole network is unobservable and therefore many network properties are unmeasurable. We illustrate this method by investigating the incremental impact of changes in networks properties that are relevant for the spread of infectious diseases, such as concurrency in sexual relationships. Development of the method is motivated by the challenges that arise in investigating the role of HIV epidemic drivers due to the often limited information available about contact networks. The proposed methods for randomly sampling dynamic networks facilitate investigation of the type of network data that can best contribute to an understanding of the HIV epidemic dynamics as well as of the limitations of conclusions drawn in the absence of such information. Hence, the methods are intended to aid in the design and interpretation of studies of network-based interventions.

Dynamics of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study with implications for HIV transmission

Objective

To develop an analytical understanding of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using nationally representative sexual behaviour data.

Method

A non-homogenous Poisson stochastic process model was used to describe the dynamics of non-cohabiting sex. The model was applied to 25 countries in SSA and was fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data. The country-specific mean values and variances of the distributions of number of non-cohabiting partners were estimated.

Results

The model yielded overall robust fits to the empirical distributions stratified by marital status and sex. The median across all country-specific mean values was highest for unmarried men at 0.574 non-cohabiting partners over the last 12 months, followed by that of unmarried women at 0.337, married men at 0.192 and married women at 0.038. The median of variances was highest for unmarried men at 0.127, followed by married men at 0.057, unmarried women at 0.003 and married women at 0.000. The largest variability in mean values across countries was for unmarried men (0.103–1.206), and the largest variability in variances was among unmarried women (0.000–1.994).

Conclusions

Non-cohabiting sex appears to be a random ‘opportunistic’ phenomenon linked to situations that may facilitate it. The mean values and variances of number of partners in SSA show wide variation by country, marital status and sex. Unmarried individuals have larger mean values than their married counterparts, and men have larger mean values than women. Unmarried individuals appear to play a disproportionate role in driving heterogeneity in sexual networks and possibly epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections.

Correlates of HIV infection among African American women from 20 cities in the United States

Little research has been conducted to investigate multiple levels of HIV risk-individual risk factors, sex partner characteristics, and socioeconomic factors-among African American women, who, in 2010, comprised 64 % of the estimated 9,500 new infections in women. Respondent-driven sampling was used to recruit and interview women in 20 cities with high AIDS prevalence in the United States through the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System. We assessed individual risk factors, sex partner characteristics, and socioeconomic characteristics associated with being HIV-positive but unaware of the infection among African American women. Among 3,868 women with no previous diagnosis of HIV, 68 % had high school education or more and 84 % lived at or below the poverty line. In multivariable analysis, women who were 35 years or older, homeless, received Medicaid, whose last sex partner ever used crack cocaine or was an exchange sex partner were more likely to be HIV-positive-unaware. Developing and implementing strategies that address socioeconomic factors, such as homelessness and living in poverty, as well as individual risk factors, can help to maximize the effectiveness of the public health response to the HIV epidemic.

Modelling the impact of HIV on the populations of South Africa and Botswana

We develop and use mathematical models that describe changes in the South African population over the last decades, brought on by HIV and AIDS. We do not model all the phases in HIV progression but rather, we show that a relatively simple model is sufficient to represent the data and allows us to investigate important aspects of HIV infection: firstly, we are able to investigate the effect of awareness on the prevalence of HIV and secondly, it enables us to make a comparison between South Africa and Botswana. A comparison is made between two models: a model that does not reflect awareness of the devastating impact of HIV and AIDS, and a model with an added psychological awareness factor. Both models are fitted to data that reflects the incidence of HIV and AIDS within South Africa. This allows us to examine the impact of psychological awareness. We show that inclusion of the effect of awareness is absolutely necessary to arrive at a model description that satisfactorily fits the available HIV and AIDS data for South Africa. We also show that a relatively simple modelling of awareness (as opposed to more complex mathematical techniques that have been used in past studies) is sufficient to accurately describe the observed patterns in the data. Even though awareness alone is not sufficient to eradicate any disease and other control strategies should be explored and implemented concurrently with educational campaigns, we are able to conclude (through thorough model analyses procedures) that the current level of awareness in South Africa is far below the level that is effectively required to eradicate HIV from the South African population. The awareness model is also fitted to HIV-related data for Botswana and we compare the results with the South African case. Though the effect of awareness is currently estimated at a much higher level in Botswana, other factors such as poorer health care and cultural differences may play a role in limiting the ability of awareness to combat HIV in Botswana.

Dynamics of infectious diseases

Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiology--the SIS and SIR type models--before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations, stochasticity and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems.

Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic in Asia, with live bird trade as a major disease transmission pathway. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in northern Vietnam to investigate the structure of the live bird market (LBM) contact network and the implications for virus spread. Based on the movements of traders between LBMs, weighted and directed networks were constructed and used for social network analysis and individual-based modeling. Most LBMs were connected to one another, suggesting that the LBM network may support large-scale disease spread. Because of cross-border trade, it also may promote transboundary virus circulation. However, opportunities for disease control do exist. The implementation of thorough, daily disinfection of the market environment as well as of traders' vehicles and equipment in only a small number of hubs can disconnect the network dramatically, preventing disease spread. These targeted interventions would be an effective alternative to the current policy of a complete ban of LBMs in some areas. Some LBMs that have been banned still are very active, and they likely have a substantial impact on disease dynamics, exhibiting the highest levels of susceptibility and infectiousness. The number of trader visits to markets, information that can be collected quickly and easily, may be used to identify LBMs suitable for implementing interventions. This would not require prior knowledge of the force of infection, for which laboratory-confirmed surveillance would be necessary. These findings are of particular relevance for policy development in resource-scarce settings.

Understanding the potential impact of a combination HIV prevention intervention in a hyper-endemic community

OBJECTIVES

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.

RESULTS

Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10-15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.

CONCLUSION

High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.

An agent based model for simulating the spread of sexually transmitted infections

This work uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to simulate sexually transmitted infection (STIs) spread within a population of 1000 agents over a 10-year period, as a preliminary investigation of the suitability of ABM methodology to simulate STI spread. The work contrasts compartmentalized mathematical models that fail to account for individual agents, and ABMs commonly applied to simulate the spread of respiratory infections. The model was developed in C++ using the Boost 1.47.0 libraries for the normal distribution and OpenGL for visualization. Sixteen agent parameters interact individually and in combination to govern agent profiles and behaviours relative to infection probabilities. The simulation results provide qualitative comparisons of STI mitigation strategies, including the impact of condom use, promiscuity, the form of the friend network, and mandatory STI testing. Individual and population-wide impacts were explored, with individual risk being impacted much more dramatically by population-level behaviour changes as compared to individual behaviour changes.

Individual and population level effects of partner notification for Chlamydia trachomatis

Partner notification (PN or contact tracing) is an important aspect of treating bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as Chlamydia trachomatis. It facilitates the identification of new infected cases that can be treated through individual case management. PN also acts indirectly by limiting onward transmission in the general population. However, the impact of PN, both at the level of individuals and the population, remains unclear. Since it is difficult to study the effects of PN empirically, mathematical and computational models are useful tools for investigating its potential as a public health intervention. To this end, we developed an individual-based modeling framework called Rstisim. It allows the implementation of different models of STI transmission with various levels of complexity and the reconstruction of the complete dynamic sexual partnership network over any time period. A key feature of this framework is that we can trace an individual's partnership history in detail and investigate the outcome of different PN strategies for C. trachomatis. For individual case management, the results suggest that notifying three or more partners from the preceding 18 months yields substantial numbers of new cases. In contrast, the successful treatment of current partners is most important for preventing re-infection of index cases and reducing further transmission of C. trachomatis at the population level. The findings of this study demonstrate the difference between individual and population level outcomes of public health interventions for STIs.

A characterization of internet dating network structures among nordic men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

The Internet has become an important venue for seeking sexual partners and may facilitate transmission of sexually transmitted infections.

METHODS

We examined a 64-day data log of flirt messages expressing sexual interest among MSM within the Qruiser.com community. We used logistic regression to analyze characteristics of MSM sending and receiving flirt messages and negative binomial regression to examine individual activity and popularity. The structural properties, including the core structure of the flirt network, were analyzed.

RESULTS

The MSM population consisted of approximately 40% homosexuals and 37% bisexuals, while the remaining 23% included men who identified as heterosexual but searched for sex with men and "experimental". MSM were more likely to send flirt messages if they were homosexual and aged 40+ years; young people aged < 30 years were more likely to receive a flirt. Possession of a webcam was strongly associated with both sending flirt messages and being a flirt target. The distributions of flirts sent (max k(out) = 2162) and received (max k(in) = 84) were highly heterogeneous. Members in central cores were more likely homosexuals, singles, and aged 31-40 years. The probability of a matched flirt (flirt returned from target) increased from 1% in the outer core to 18% in the central core (core size = 4).

DISCUSSION

The flirt network showed high degree heterogeneity similar to the structural properties of real sexual contact networks with a single central core. Further studies are needed to explore use of webcam for Internet dating.

Repeat syphilis among men who have sex with men in California, 2002-2006: implications for syphilis elimination efforts

OBJECTIVES

We examined rates of and risk factors for repeat syphilis infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in California.

METHODS

We analyzed 2002 to 2006 California syphilis surveillance system data.

RESULTS

During the study period, a mean of 5.9% (range: 4.9%-7.1% per year) of MSM had a repeat primary or secondary (PS) syphilis infection within 2 years of an initial infection. There was no significant increase in the annual proportion of MSM with a repeat syphilis infection (P = .42). In a multivariable model, factors associated with repeat syphilis infection were HIV infection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14, 2.37), Black race (OR = 1.84; 95% CI = 1.12, 3.04), and 10 or more recent sex partners (OR = 1.99; 95% CI = 1.12, 3.50).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 6% of MSM in California have a repeat PS syphilis infection within 2 years of an initial infection. HIV infection, Black race, and having multiple sex partners are associated with increased odds of repeat infection. Syphilis elimination efforts should include messages about the risk for repeat infection and the importance of follow-up testing. Public health attention to individuals repeatedly infected with syphilis may help reduce local disease burdens.

HIV and concurrent sexual partnerships: modelling the role of coital dilution

BACKGROUND

The concurrency hypothesis asserts that high prevalence of overlapping sexual partnerships explains extraordinarily high HIV levels in sub-Saharan Africa. Earlier simulation models show that the network effect of concurrency can increase HIV incidence, but those models do not account for the coital dilution effect (non-primary partnerships have lower coital frequency than primary partnerships).

METHODS

We modify the model of Eaton et al (AIDS and Behavior, September 2010) to incorporate coital dilution by assigning lower coital frequencies to non-primary partnerships. We parameterize coital dilution based on the empirical work of Morris et al (PLoS ONE, December 2010) and others. Following Eaton et al, we simulate the daily transmission of HIV over 250 years for 10 levels of concurrency.

RESULTS

At every level of concurrency, our focal coital-dilution simulation produces epidemic extinction. Our sensitivity analysis shows that this result is quite robust; even modestly lower coital frequencies in non-primary partnerships lead to epidemic extinction.

CONCLUSIONS

In order to contribute usefully to the investigation of HIV prevalence, simulation models of concurrent partnering and HIV epidemics must incorporate realistic degrees of coital dilution. Doing so dramatically reduces the role that concurrency can play in accelerating the spread of HIV and suggests that concurrency cannot be an important driver of HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative explanations for HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa are needed.

Interaction of mathematical modeling and social and behavioral HIV/AIDS research

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV is transmitted within complex biobehavioral systems. Mathematical modeling can provide insight to complex population-level outcomes of various behaviors measured at an individual level.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV models in the social and behavioral sciences can be categorized in a number of ways; here, we consider two classes of applications common in the field generally, and in the past year in particular: those models that explore significant behavioral determinants of HIV disparities within and between populations; and those models that seek to evaluate the potential impact of specific social and behavioral interventions.

SUMMARY

We discuss two overarching issues we see in the field: the need to further systematize effectiveness models of behavioral interventions, and the need for increasing investigation of the use of behavioral data in epidemic models. We believe that a recent initiative by the National Institutes of Health will qualitatively change the relationships between epidemic modeling and sociobehavioral prevention research in the coming years.

Evidence for changes in behaviour leading to reductions in HIV prevalence in urban Malawi

BACKGROUND

At the epicentre of the HIV epidemic in Eastern Africa, HIV prevalence has appeared to stabilise in most countries. However, there are indications that the HIV epidemic in Malawi has recently declined.

METHODS

We analysed sexual behaviour survey data from Malawi between 2000 and 2004 and HIV prevalence data from the national antenatal clinic HIV surveillance system between 1994 and 2007 using a mathematical modelling technique that can identify associations between behaviour change and reductions in incidence.

RESULTS

In Malawi between 2000 and 2004 there were significant reductions in the proportion of 15-19 year olds starting sex, the proportion of men having sex with more than one woman in the previous year and significant increases in condom use by men with multiple partners. In the same period, prevalence dropped from 26% to 15% in urban areas among pregnant women and reduced by 40% among women aged 15-24 years. In the same period, prevalence remained at ∼12% in rural areas. Mathematical modelling suggests that the declines in prevalence in urban areas were associated with the behaviour changes and that, if the changes are maintained, this will have cumulatively averted 140,000 (95% interval: 65,000 to 160,000) HIV infections by 2010.

CONCLUSION

Changes in sexual behaviour can avert thousands of new HIV infections in mature generalised hyper-endemic settings. In urban Malawi, the reduction in the number of men with multiple partners is likely to have driven the reduction in incidence. Understanding the causes of this change is a priority so that successful programmes and campaigns can be rapidly expanded to rural areas and other countries in the region.

Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease

The science of networks has revolutionised research into the dynamics of interacting elements. It could be argued that epidemiology in particular has embraced the potential of network theory more than any other discipline. Here we review the growing body of research concerning the spread of infectious diseases on networks, focusing on the interplay between network theory and epidemiology. The review is split into four main sections, which examine: the types of network relevant to epidemiology; the multitude of ways these networks can be characterised; the statistical methods that can be applied to infer the epidemiological parameters on a realised network; and finally simulation and analytical methods to determine epidemic dynamics on a given network. Given the breadth of areas covered and the ever-expanding number of publications, a comprehensive review of all work is impossible. Instead, we provide a personalised overview into the areas of network epidemiology that have seen the greatest progress in recent years or have the greatest potential to provide novel insights. As such, considerable importance is placed on analytical approaches and statistical methods which are both rapidly expanding fields. Throughout this review we restrict our attention to epidemiological issues.

A decade of modelling research yields considerable evidence for the importance of concurrency: a response to Sawers and Stillwaggon

In their recent article, Sawers and Stillwaggon critique the "concurrency hypothesis" on a number of grounds. In this commentary, I focus on one thread of their argument, pertaining to the evidence derived from modelling work. Their analysis focused on the foundational papers of Morris and Kretzschmar; here, I explore the research that has been conducted since then, which Sawers and Stillwaggon leave out of their review. I explain the methodological limitations that kept progress on the topic slow at first, and the various forms of methodological development that were pursued to overcome these. I then highlight recent modelling work that addresses the various limitations Sawers and Stillwaggon outline in their article. Collectively, this line of research provides considerable support for the modelling aspects of the concurrency hypothesis, and renders their critique of the literature incomplete and obsolete. It also makes clear that their call for "an end (or at least a moratorium) to research on sexual behaviour in Africa" that pertains to concurrency is unjustified.

Statistical inference to advance network models in epidemiology

Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in the study of epidemiology. Most of the existing work in this area has focused on considering the effect of underlying network structure on epidemic dynamics by using tools from probability theory and computer simulation. This work has provided much insight on the role that heterogeneity in host contact patterns plays on infectious disease dynamics. Despite the important understanding afforded by the probability and simulation paradigm, this approach does not directly address important questions about the structure of contact networks such as what is the best network model for a particular mode of disease transmission, how parameter values of a given model should be estimated, or how precisely the data allow us to estimate these parameter values. We argue that these questions are best answered within a statistical framework and discuss the role of statistical inference in estimating contact networks from epidemiological data.

HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA.

METHODS

We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA.

RESULTS

We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present.

CONCLUSIONS

HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited.

Examining the promise of HIV elimination by 'test and treat' in hyperendemic settings

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that a new strategy for HIV prevention, 'Universal Test and Treat', whereby everyone is tested for HIV once a year and treated immediately with antiretroviral therapy (ART) if they are infected, could 'eliminate' the epidemic and reduce ART costs in the long term.

METHODS

We investigated the impact of test-and-treat interventions under a variety of assumptions about the epidemic using a deterministic mathematical model.

RESULTS

Our model shows that such an intervention can substantially reduce HIV transmission, but that impact depends crucially on the epidemiological context; in some situations, less aggressive interventions achieve the same results, whereas in others, the proposed intervention reduces HIV by much less. It follows that testing every year and treating immediately is not necessarily the most cost-efficient strategy. We also show that a test-and-treat intervention that does not reach full implementation or coverage could, perversely, increase long-term ART costs.

CONCLUSION

Interventions that prevent new infections through ART scale-up may hold substantial promise. However, as plans move forward, careful consideration should be given to the nature of the epidemic and the potential for perverse outcomes.

Condom use and duration of concurrent partnerships among men in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Concurrent partnerships accelerate dissemination of STIs. Most investigations of the features of concurrent partnerships have focused on higher risk subpopulations.

GOAL

To assess condom use and the duration of concurrent sexual partnerships among men in the United States.

STUDY DESIGN

Analysis of concurrent sexual partnerships among men in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. We classified pairs of concurrent partnerships into 3 types: transitional, contained, and experimental concurrency, and assessed the duration of overlap. We also report the distribution of condom use at the last sexual intercourse with neither, one or both concurrent partners of each pair and characteristics of men more likely to have used condoms with neither sex partner.

RESULTS

The duration of overlap was <1 month in 32%, 1 to 3 months in 19%, and >12 months in 25% of concurrency pairs. Half (55%) of the pairs (whites, 64%; blacks, 41%) involved unprotected sex at the last sexual intercourse with at least 1 partner. The 35% of men who were more likely to use condoms with neither sex partner at the last sexual intercourse were older, white (48%), married/cohabitating (55%), and during the previous 12 months were incarcerated (49%), or used crack/cocaine (51%).

CONCLUSIONS

Although blacks generally experience higher rates of STIs and HIV, in this representative sample of men in the United States, blacks in concurrent partnerships seemed to use the only available protection (condoms) against infection (apart from abstinence) more than other racial/ethnic groups. Continued investigation of features of sexual partnership patterns is critical for curbing STI and HIV transmission.

Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Determining whether interventions to reduce HIV transmission have worked is essential, but complicated by the potential for generalised epidemics to evolve over time without individuals changing risk behaviour. We aimed to develop a method to evaluate evidence for changes in risk behaviour altering the course of an HIV epidemic.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission, incorporating the potential for natural changes in the epidemic as it matures and the introduction of antiretroviral treatment, and applied a Bayesian Melding framework, in which the model and observed trends in prevalence can be compared. We applied the model to Zimbabwe, using HIV prevalence estimates from antenatal clinic surveillance and house-hold based surveys, and basing model parameters on data from sexual behaviour surveys.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence for reductions in risk behaviour stemming HIV transmission. We estimate these changes occurred between 1999 and 2004 and averted 660,000 (95% credible interval: 460,000-860,000) infections by 2008.

DISCUSSION

The model and associated analysis framework provide a robust way to evaluate the evidence for changes in risk behaviour affecting the course of HIV epidemics, avoiding confounding by the natural evolution of HIV epidemics.

Sexual network structure among a household sample of urban african american adolescents in an endemic sexually transmitted infection setting

BACKGROUND

Sexual networks play an important role in the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV. However, because of the challenges of collecting network data, relatively few empirical reports exist about the structure of sexual networks in general population samples. This study describes the structure of the sexual networks of a household sample of urban black adolescents living in an area with moderate endemic STI rates.

METHODS

Random digit dialing was used to recruit a household sample of black adolescents from the Bayview-Hunter's Point neighborhood of San Francisco. Participants' recent partners and partners of partners were recruited through snowball sampling. Biologic samples were tested for current infection with gonorrhea or chlamydia. Social network analysis methods were used to describe the characteristics of the resulting sexual networks.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-six sexually active participants were connected to 388 network members in 159 separate sexual network components. Despite relatively high prevalence of bacterial STIs (13%), components were small (3.5 people on average, and half involved only 2 people), linear and acyclic. Females were less central in their networks than males by local measures but just as central when overall structure was taken into account.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm, in a new setting, previous observations that sexual network structures necessary for endemic transmission of gonorrhea and chlamydia are sparsely connected.

African-American female adolescents who engage in oral, vaginal and anal sex: "doing it all" as a significant marker for risk of sexually transmitted infection

African-American female adolescents who engaged in vaginal sex only (N = 272) were compared to adolescents who engaged in two types (vaginal plus oral or anal; N = 295) and three types (vaginal, oral and anal; N = 144) on a constellation of other sexual risk behaviors (SRBs) and on sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Adjusted contrasts among groups revealed that adolescents who engaged in two and in three types of sex as compared to those who engaged in vaginal sex only were more likely to engage in six of the seven SRBs, but were just as likely to have a STI. One SRB, having >/= 4 lifetime sex partners, was in turn associated with STI. Two-way interactions indicated that having a casual sex partner and having multiple sex partners in the last 60 days increased the likelihood of STI, but only for adolescents who engaged in all three types.

The Likoma Network Study: Context, data collection, and initial results

The extent and structure of sexual networks have important consequences for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases such as HIV. However, very few datasets currently exist that allow a detailed investigation of sexual networks in sub-Saharan African settings where HIV epidemics have become generalized. In this paper, we describe the context and methods of the Likoma Network Study (LNS), one of the few studies that have collected extensive information on sexual networks in sub-Saharan Africa. We start by reviewing theoretical arguments and empirical studies emphasizing the importance of network structures in the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI). The island setting of this study is described, and we argue that the choice of an island as a research site limited potential biases that may make the collection of sexual network data difficult. We then document our empirical strategy for the collection of sexual network data and the subsequent identification of sexual network partners. A description of the protocol for the collection of biomarker data (HIV infection) is provided. Finally, we present initial results relating to the socioeconomic context of the island, the size and composition of sexual networks, the quality of the sexual network data, the determinants of successful contact tracing during the LNS, and the prevalence of HIV in the study population.

A metapopulation modelling framework for gonorrhoea and other sexually transmitted infections in heterosexual populations

Gonorrhoea continues to be a public health problem in the UK, and is the second most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) after chlamydia. In the UK, gonorrhoea is disproportionately concentrated in epidemiologically distinct subpopulations, with much higher incidence rates in young people, some ethnic minorities and inner city subpopulations. The original model of STI transmission proposed by Hethcote and Yorke explained some of these features through the concept of the 'core group'. Since then, several authors have modified the original model approach to include multiple sexual activity classes, but found this modelling approach to be inadequate when applied to low-prevalence settings such as the UK. We present a metapopulation framework for modelling gonorrhoea and other STIs. The model proposes that the epidemiology of gonorrhoea is largely driven by subpopulations with higher than average concentrations of individuals with high sexual risk activity. We show how this conceptualization of gonococcal epidemiology overcomes key limitations associated with some of the prior efforts to model gonorrhoea. We also use the model to explain several epidemiological features of gonorrhoea, such as its asymmetric distribution across subpopulations, and the contextual risk experienced by members of at-risk subpopulations. Finally, we extend the model to explain the distribution of other STIs, using chlamydia as an example of a more ubiquitous bacterial STI.

The relevance of social network analysis on the epidemiology and prevention of sexually transmitted diseases

Historically, the epidemiology of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) has been based on individual attributes and behavior. However, STD constitute a good example of diseases that depend on personal contacts for dissemination. Social network analysis is a relatively new technique that studies the interactions among people. Since 1985 when it was first used for STD, some studies have been done using the technique, especially in the last 10 years. The two network-based designs, sociocentric or complete networks and egocentric or personal networks, are currently recognized as important tools for a better understanding of STD's dynamic. Here an overview is presented of social network analysis: the technique, its use, and its limitations. Ethical considerations regarding social network analyses are also briefly discussed.