Reconstruction of individual radiation doses for a case-control study of thyroid cancer in French Polynesia

Genetic factors for differentiated thyroid cancer in French Polynesia: new candidate loci

Background

Populations of French Polynesia (FP), where France performed atmospheric tests between 1966 and 1974, experience a high incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, up to now, no sufficiently large study of DTC genetic factors in this population has been performed to reach definitive conclusion. This research aimed to analyze the genetic factors of DTC risk among the native FP populations.

Methods

We analyzed more than 300 000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped in 283 DTC cases and 418 matched controls born in FP, most being younger than 15 years old at the time of the first nuclear tests. We analyzed the genetic profile of our cohort to identify population subgroups. We then completed a genome-wide analysis study on the whole population.

Results

We identified a specific genetic structure in the FP population reflecting admixture from Asian and European populations. We identified three regions associated with increased DTC risk at 6q24.3, 10p12.2, and 17q21.32. The lead SNPs at these loci showed respective p-values of 1.66 × 10^-7, 2.39 × 10^-7, and 7.19 × 10^-7 and corresponding odds ratios of 2.02, 1.89, and 2.37.

Conclusion

Our study results suggest a role of the loci 6q24.3, 10p12.2 and 17q21.32 in DTC risk. However, a whole genome sequencing approach would be better suited to characterize these factors than genotyping with microarray chip designed for the Caucasian population. Moreover, the functional impact of these three new loci needs to be further explored and validated.

Assessment of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinomas in French Polynesia After Atmospheric Nuclear Tests Performed by France

Importance

Due to the amount of iodine 131 released in nuclear tests and its active uptake by the thyroid, differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is the most serious health risk for the population living near sites of nuclear tests. Whether low doses to the thyroid from nuclear fallout are associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer remains a controversial issue in medicine and public health, and a misunderstanding of this issue may be associated with overdiagnosis of DTCs.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-control study was conducted by extending a case-control study published in 2010 that included DTCs diagnosed between 1984 and 2003 by adding DTCs diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 and improving the dose assessment methodology. Data on 41 atmospheric nuclear tests conducted by France between 1966 and 1974 in French Polynesia (FP) were assessed from original internal radiation-protection reports, which the French military declassified in 2013 and which included measurements in soil, air, water, milk, and food in all FP archipelagos. These original reports led to an upward reassessment of the nuclear fallout from the tests and a doubling of estimates of the mean thyroid radiation dose received by inhabitants from 2 mGy to nearly 5 mGy. Included patients were diagnosed from 1984 to 2016 with DTC at age 55 years or younger and were born in and resided in FP at diagnosis; 395 of 457 eligible cases were included, and up to 2 controls per case nearest by birthdate and matched on sex were identified from the FP birth registry. Data were analyzed from March 2019 through October 2021.

Exposure

The radiation dose to the thyroid gland was estimated using recently declassified original radiation-protection service reports, meteorological reports, self-reported lifestyle information, and group interviews of key informants and female individuals who had children at the time of these tests.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The lifetime risk of DTC based on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII models was estimated.

Results

A total of 395 DTC cases (336 females [85.1%]; mean [SD] age at end of follow-up, 43.6 [12.9] years) and 555 controls (473 females [85.2%]; mean [SD] age at end of follow-up, 42.3 [12.5] years) were included. No association was found between thyroid radiation dose received before age 15 years and risk of DTC (excess relative risk [ERR] per milligray, 0.04; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.17; P = .27). When excluding unifocal noninvasive microcarcinomas, the dose response was significant (ERR per milligray, 0.09; 95% CI, -0.03 to 0.02; P = .02), but several incoherencies with the results of the initial study reduce the credibility of this result. The lifetime risk for the entire FP population was 29 cases of DTC (95% CI, 8-97 cases), or 2.3% (95% CI, 0.6%-7.7%) of 1524 sporadic DTC cases in this population.

Conclusions and Relevance

This case-control study found that French nuclear tests were associated with an increase in lifetime risk of PTC in FP residents of 29 cases of PTC. This finding suggests that the number of thyroid cancer cases and the true order of magnitude of health outcomes associated with these nuclear tests were small, which may reassure populations of this Pacific territory.

Dose Estimation for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the prospects that a nuclear device might be detonated due to a regional or global political conflict, by violation of present nuclear weapons test ban agreements, or due to an act of terrorism, has increased. Thus, the need exists for a well conceptualized, well described, and internally consistent methodology for dose estimation that takes full advantage of the experience gained over the last 70 y in both measurement technology and dose assessment methodology. Here, the models, rationale, and data needed for a detailed state-of-the-art dose assessment for exposure to radioactive fallout from nuclear detonations discussed in five companion papers are summarized. These five papers present methods and data for estimating radionuclide deposition of fallout radionuclides, internal and external dose from the deposited fallout, and discussion of the uncertainties in the assessed doses. In addition, this paper includes a brief discussion of secondary issues related to assessments of radiation dose from fallout. The intention of this work is to provide a usable and consistent methodology for both prospective and retrospective assessments of exposure from radioactive fallout from a nuclear detonation.

Radiological Impact of Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests at Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls to Populations in Oceania, South America and Africa: Comparison with French Polynesia

Objective:

To evaluate the potential radiological impact of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in 1966-1974 at Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls on populations in Oceania, South America and Africa.

Methods:

Results of measurements of total beta(β)-concentrations in filtered air and ¹³¹I activity concentrations in locally produced cow’s milk in Oceania, South America and Africa after the tests were compared with those in French Polynesia. Radiation doses due to external irradiation and thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake with milk by local populations were also compared.

Results:

Higher total β-concentrations in filtered air, ¹³¹I activity concentrations in locally produced milk and radiation doses to local population were, in general, observed in French Polynesia than in other countries in the southern hemisphere. However, for specific years during the testing period, the radiological impact to South America was found to be similar or slightly higher than that to Tahiti. The resulting thyroid doses in the considered countries were lower than those in French Polynesia with two exceptions: thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake with cow’s milk for 1-y old child in 1968 were higher in Peru (0.35 mGy) and in Madagascar (0.30 mGy) than in Tahiti (0.25 mGy). However, the populations outside French Polynesia received doses lower than those from the natural sources of radiation.

Conclusion:

According to the current knowledge in radiation epidemiology, it is very unlikely that nuclear fallout due to French nuclear tests had a measurable radiological and health impact outside French Polynesia.

Thyroid Doses to French Polynesians Resulting from Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests: Estimates Based on Radiation Measurements and Population Lifestyle Data

Thyroid doses were estimated for the subjects of a population-based case-control study of thyroid cancer in a population exposed to fallout after atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in French Polynesia between 1966 and 1974. Thyroid doses due to (1) intake of I and of short-lived radioiodine isotopes (I, I, I) and Te, (2) external irradiation from gamma-emitting radionuclides deposited on the ground, and (3) ingestion of long-lived Cs with foodstuffs were reconstructed for each study subject. The dosimetry model that had been used in 2008 in Phase I of the study was substantially improved with (1) results of radiation monitoring of the environment and foodstuffs, which became available in 2013 for public access, and (2) historical data on population lifestyle related to the period of the tests, which were collected in 2016-2017 using focus-group discussions and key informant interviews. The mean thyroid dose among the study subjects was found to be around 5 mGy while the highest dose was estimated to be around 36 mGy. Doses from I intake ranged up to 27 mGy, while those from intake of short-lived iodine isotopes (I, I, I) and Te ranged up to 14 mGy. Thyroid doses from external exposure ranged up to 6 mGy, and those from internal exposure due to Cs ingestion did not exceed 1 mGy. Intake of I was found to be the main pathway for thyroid exposure accounting for 72% of the total dose. Results of this study are being used to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer among the subjects of the epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer among French Polynesians.

Estimated Radiation Doses Received by New Mexico Residents from the 1945 Trinity Nuclear Test

The National Cancer Institute study of projected health risks to New Mexico residents from the 1945 Trinity nuclear test provides best estimates of organ radiation absorbed doses received by representative persons according to ethnicity, age, and county. Doses to five organs/tissues at significant risk from exposure to radioactive fallout (i.e., active bone marrow, thyroid gland, lungs, stomach, and colon) from the 63 most important radionuclides in fresh fallout from external and internal irradiation were estimated. The organ doses were estimated for four resident ethnic groups in New Mexico (Whites, Hispanics, Native Americans, and African Americans) in seven age groups using: (1) assessment models described in a companion paper, (2) data on the spatial distribution and magnitude of radioactive fallout derived from historical documents, and (3) data collected on diets and lifestyles in 1945 from interviews and focus groups conducted in 2015-2017 (described in a companion paper). The organ doses were found to vary widely across the state with the highest doses directly to the northeast of the detonation site and at locations close to the center of the Trinity fallout plume. Spatial heterogeneity of fallout deposition was the largest cause of variation of doses across the state with lesser differences due to age and ethnicity, the latter because of differences in diets and lifestyles. The exposure pathways considered included both external irradiation from deposited fallout and internal irradiation via inhalation of airborne radionuclides in the debris cloud as well as resuspended ground activity and ingestion of contaminated drinking water (derived both from rivers and rainwater cisterns) and foodstuffs including milk products, beef, mutton, and pork, human-consumed plant products including leafy vegetables, fruit vegetables, fruits, and berries. Tables of best estimates of county population-weighted average organ doses by ethnicity and age are presented. A discussion of our estimates of uncertainty is also provided to illustrate a lower and upper credible range on our best estimates of doses. Our findings indicate that only small geographic areas immediately downwind to the northeast received exposures of any significance as judged by their magnitude relative to natural radiation. The findings presented are the most comprehensive and well-described estimates of doses received by populations of New Mexico from the Trinity nuclear test.

Ground deposition of radionuclides in French Polynesia resulting from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests at Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls

This paper presents the results of the first comprehensive estimation of the ground deposition density of radionuclides in French Polynesia resulting from the 41 atmospheric nuclear weapons tests that were conducted between 1966 and 1974 at Mururoa and Fangataufa. For each test, the deposition density at the time of arrival of fallout was estimated for 33 radionuclides either from measurements of total ground deposition or from measurements of total beta-concentration in filtered air and exposure rate at different locations in French Polynesia. The results of the measurements were mainly taken from reports that were recently de-classified by the French Ministry of Defense. The highest total deposition densities in inhabited islands and atolls occurred in Gambier: 6.1 × 10⁷ Bq m^-2 after test Aldébaran conducted on 2 July 1966 and 9.2 × 10⁶ Bq m^-2 after test Phoebé conducted on 8 August 1971. Next was Tureia with deposition densities of 1.6 × 10⁷ Bq m^-2 after test Arcturus of 2 July 1967 and 1.2 × 10⁷ Bq m^-2 after test Encelade of 12 June 1971. In Tahiti, the most populated island in French Polynesia, major fallout occurred after tests Centaure of 17 July 1974 (3.4 × 10⁶ Bq m^-2), Sirius of 4 October 1966 (4.4 × 10⁵ Bq m^-2) and Arcturus of 2 July 1967 (1.1 × 10⁵ Bq m^-2); these three tests contributed about 94% to the total deposition density of radioactive fallout in Tahiti from all 41 tests and around 85% of the ¹³¹I deposition density. The results of this study are being used to reconstruct the radiation dose to the thyroid gland for the 950 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among French Polynesians exposed as children and adolescents to fallout from the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in 1966-1974.

Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Tests: Environmental, Health, Political, and Sociological Considerations

The process of nuclear fission, which was discovered in 1938, opened the door to the production of nuclear weapons, which were used in 1945 by the United States against Japan in World War II, and to the detonation of >500 nuclear weapons tests in the atmosphere by the United States, the former Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, China, and France from 1946-1980. Hundreds of radionuclides, most of them short-lived, were produced in the atmospheric tests. The radioactive clouds produced by the explosions were usually partitioned between the troposphere and the stratosphere: the activity that remained in the troposphere resulted in local and regional fallout, consisting mainly of short-lived radionuclides and in relatively high doses for the populations residing in the vicinity of the test site, whereas the activity that reached the stratosphere returned to the ground with a half-life of ~1 y and was composed of long-lived radionuclides that contaminated all uncovered materials on Earth to a small extent and led to low-level irradiation of the world population for decades or more. The health effects resulting from exposure to radioactive fallout constitute, in most cases, small excesses over baseline rates for thyroid cancer and leukemia. An extra 49,000 cases of thyroid cancer would be expected to occur among the US population from exposure to radioactive fallout from the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests that were conducted at the Nevada Test Site in the 1950s. In addition, there could be as many as 11,000 deaths from non-thyroid cancers related to fallout from all atmospheric tests that were conducted at all sites in the world, with leukemia making up 10% of the total. Public concern arose in part from the secrecy that surrounded the nuclear testing programs and, for a long time, the poor communication regarding the consequences of the tests, both in terms of radiation doses and of health effects. Sociological and political pressures contributed to the establishment of programs of compensation for radiation exposures and evidence of radiation-induced diseases in countries that incurred significant fallout from nuclear weapons testing.

Behavior and Food Consumption Pattern of the French Polynesian Population in the 1960s -1970s

BACKGROUND

Reconstruction of radiation doses to the thyroid for a case-control study of thyroid cancer in French Polynesians exposed to radioactive fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests during childhood and adolescence faced a major limitation on very little availability of information on lifestyle of French Polynesians in the 1960s-1970s.

METHOD

We use the focus group discussion and key informant interview methodology to collect historical, for the 1960s-1970s, data on behavior and food consumption for French Polynesia population exposed to radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons tests conducted between 1966 and 1974.

RESULTS

We obtained archipelago-specific data on food consumptions by children of different ages and by pregnant and lactating women during pregnancy and breastfeeding and behaviour, including time spent outdoors and type and construction materials of residences.

CONCLUSIONS

This article presents the first detailed information on several key aspects of daily life on French Polynesian archipelagoes during the 1960s-1970s impacting radiation exposure. Important behavior and food consumptions data obtained in this study are being used to improve the radiation dose estimates and to update the risk analysis reported earlier by correcting biases from previous assumptions and by providing better estimates of the parameter values important to radiation dose assessment.

Inventory and vertical distribution of 137Cs, 239+240Pu and 238Pu in soil from Raivavae and Hiva Oa, two French Polynesian islands in the southern hemisphere

Atmospheric nuclear weapons tests carried out by the United States, the former Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France and China between 1945 and 1980 resulted in radioactive fallout over the earth's surface of long-lived radionuclides, such as ¹³⁷Cs, ^239+240Pu and ²³⁸Pu that could be detected more than 50 years after their production. In addition, the burnup in the upper atmosphere of a thermoelectric generator fueled by ²³⁸Pu, SNAP-9A, contributed to the inventory of ²³⁸Pu deposited on the ground. In order to estimate the deposition densities of ¹³⁷Cs, ^239+240Pu and ²³⁸Pu in French Polynesia, we collected undisturbed soil samples up to 30 cm deep at eight sites in two islands (Hiva Oa, 139°W - 10°S and Raivavae, 148°W - 24°S) in 2015-2016. The top 0-10 cm of the soil cores were sliced into five 2-cm layers and the bottom 10-30 cm into four 5-cm layers for gamma spectrometry and alpha spectrometry measurements. We found that more than 50% of the radioactive inventories are still contained within the first 10 cm and that the average vertical migration velocities of ¹³⁷Cs and Pu are less than 0.2 cm y^-1. The average accumulated depositions, deduced from the profile measurements, are 236 ± 11 Bq.m^-2 and 313 ± 39 Bq.m^-2 for ¹³⁷Cs, 12.1 ± 1.5 Bq.m^-2 and 22.1 ± 1.7 Bq.m^-2 for ^239+240Pu, and 1.23 ± 0.46 Bq.m^-2 and 1.58 ± 0.60 Bq.m^-2 for ²³⁸Pu, in Hiva Oa and Raivavae, respectively. The ²³⁸Pu/^239+240Pu ratios are 0.102 ± 0.050 at Hiva Oa and 0.072 ± 0.033 at Raivavae. Both values are higher than the ratio in nuclear weapons tests fallout estimated to be 0.016 in 2016 (Hardy et al., 1973), because of the contribution of ²³⁸Pu fallout from SNAP-9A, which is latitude dependent. The ¹³⁷Cs/^239+240Pu ratios, 19.5 ± 3.2 at Hiva Oa and 14.2 ± 2.8 at Raivavae are in the lower part of the range of values observed in other regions of the world.

Common variants at 9q22.33, 14q13.3, and ATM loci, and risk of differentiated thyroid cancer in the French Polynesian population

BACKGROUND

French Polynesia has one of the highest incidence rates of thyroid cancer worldwide. Relationships with the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and other environmental, biological, or behavioral factors have already been reported, but genetic susceptibility has yet to be investigated. We assessed the contribution of polymorphisms at the 9q22.33 and 14q13.3 loci identified by GWAS, and within the DNA repair gene ATM, to the risk of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) in 177 cases and 275 matched controls from the native population.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

For the GWAS SNP rs965513 near FOXE1, an association was found between genotypes G/A and A/A, and risk of DTC. A multiplicative effect of allele A was even noted. An excess risk was also observed in individuals carrying two long alleles of the poly-alanine tract expansion in FOXE1, while no association was observed with rs1867277 falling in the promoter region of the gene. In contrast, the GWAS SNP rs944289 (NKX2-1) did not show any significant association. Although the missense substitution D1853N (rs1801516) in ATM was rare in the population, carriers of the minor allele (A) also showed an excess risk. The relationships between these five polymorphisms and the risk of DTC were not contingent on the body surface area, body mass index, ethnicity or dietary iodine intake. However, an interaction was evidenced between the thyroid radiation dose and rs944289.

SIGNIFICANCE

A clear link could not be established between the high incidence in French Polynesia and the studied polymorphisms, involved in susceptibility to DTC in other populations. Important variation in allele frequencies was observed in the Polynesian population as compared to the European populations. For FOXE1 rs965513, the direction of association and the effect size was similar to that observed in other populations, whereas for ATM rs1801516, the minor allele was associated to an increased risk in the Polynesian population and with a decreased risk in the European population.

Dietary iodine and thyroid cancer risk in French Polynesia: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

French Polynesia has one of the world's highest thyroid cancer incidence rates. Iodine is suspected to play a role in this high incidence. The objective of this study was to assess whether low dietary iodine is related to a higher risk of thyroid cancer in the French Polynesian population.

METHODS

A case-control study was performed among native residents of French Polynesia. It included 229 cases of differentiated thyroid cancer diagnosed between 1979 and 2004 (203 women, 26 men) matched with 371 population controls (324 women, 47 men) on the date of birth. The current study is focused on dietary iodine intake and fish consumption (food rich in iodine) and analyzed by conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Daily dietary iodine intake was insufficient (<150 μg/day) in 60% of both cases and controls. A decreased risk of thyroid cancer was observed with a higher consumption of fish (p(trend)=0.008) and shellfish (p(trend)=0.002), and also with a higher dietary iodine intake (p(trend)=0.03). There was no significant interaction between the effects of the thyroid radiation dose and the dietary iodine intake (p=0.2).

CONCLUSION

French Polynesia is a mild iodine deficiency area in which a higher consumption of food from the sea and a higher dietary iodine intake are significantly associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer. The quantification of this reduction requires specific investigation of iodine intake in traditional Polynesian food.

Thyroid cancer following nuclear tests in French Polynesia

BACKGROUND

Between 1966 and 1974, France conducted 41 atmospheric nuclear tests in Polynesia, but their potential health effects have not previously been investigated.

METHODS

In a case-control study, we compared the radiation exposure of almost all the French Polynesians diagnosed with differentiated thyroid carcinoma between 1981 and 2003 (n=229) to the exposure of 373 French Polynesian control individuals without cancer from the general population. Radiation exposures were estimated using measurements after the nuclear tests, age at time of each test, residential and dietary information.

RESULTS

The average thyroid dose before 15 years of age was about 1.8 mGy, and 5% of the cases and 3% of the controls received a dose above 10 mGy. Despite this low level of dose, and after adjusting for ethnic group, level of education, body surface area, family history of thyroid cancer and number of pregnancies for women, we observed an increasing risk (P=0.04) of thyroid cancer with increasing thyroid dose received before age of 15 years, which remained after excluding non-aggressive differentiated thyroid micro-carcinomas. This increase of risk per unit of thyroid radiation dose was higher (P=0.03) in women who later experienced four or more pregnancies than among other women.

CONCLUSION

The risk estimate is low, but is based on limited exposure data. The release of information on exposure, currently classified, would greatly improve the reliability of the risk estimation.