Occupational Diesel Exposure, Duration of Employment, and Lung Cancer: An Application of the Parametric G-Formula

Estimating impacts of reducing acrylonitrile exposure on lung cancer mortality in an occupational cohort with the parametric g-formula

OBJECTIVES

To inform the potential human carcinogenicity of acrylonitrile, we estimate associations between acrylonitrile exposures and lung cancer mortality in US workers with the objectives of (1) assessing potential for healthy worker survivor bias and (2) adjusting for this bias while assessing the expected lung cancer mortality under different hypothetical occupational exposure limits on acrylonitrile exposure using the parametric g-formula.

METHODS

We used data from a cohort of 25 460 workers at facilities making or using acrylonitrile in the USA. We estimated HRs to quantify associations between employment and lung cancer mortality, and exposure and leaving employment. Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated cumulative lung cancer mortality at hypothetical limits on acrylonitrile exposure.

RESULTS

Recent and current employment was associated with lung cancer, and exposure was associated with leaving employment, indicating potential for healthy worker survivor bias. Relative to no intervention, reducing the historical exposure under limits of 2.0, 1.0 and 0.45 parts per million would have been expected to reduce lung cancer mortality by age 90 by 4.46 (95% CI 0.78 to 8.15), 5.03 (95% CI 0.96 to 9.11) and 6.45 (95% CI 2.35 to 10.58) deaths per 1000 workers, respectively. A larger lung cancer mortality reduction would be expected under elimination of exposure: 7.21 (95% CI 2.72 to 11.70) deaths per 1000 workers.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthy worker survivor bias likely led to underestimation of excess risk. Our results corroborate previous study findings of an excess hazard of lung cancer among the highest exposed workers.

Risk assessment for conventional diesel exhaust (before 1990) and lung cancer in a cohort of miners

Diesel exhaust in the latter half of the 20th century has been found to be a lung carcinogen. Conventional diesel emissions continue in the transportation, mining, construction, and farming industries. From the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study, a public-use dataset was used to calculate the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer associated with diesel exposure (1947-1997). Excess rates of lung cancer mortality associated with respirable elemental carbon (REC) and possible other mining exposures (e.g., oil mists, explosives emissions) were investigated using Poisson regression methods. Lung cancer mortality declined with increasing employment duration while increasing with cumulative REC and non-diesel exposures, suggesting a strong worker survivor effect. Attenuation of the REC effect was observed with increasing cumulative exposure. After adjustment for employment duration, the excess rate ratio for lung cancer mortality was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.35-0.99) for a 10-year lagged exposure to 200 μg/m3 REC, a typical below-ground exposure in the study mines. At exposures of 200, 10, and 1 μg/m3 REC, the estimated excess lifetime risks, respectively, were 119, 43, and 8.7 per thousand. Analysis of an inception cohort hired after dieselization commenced produced smaller and less certain estimates of lifetime risk. From exposures to conventional diesel engine exhaust common in occupational groups in the past, the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer was more than 5%. Ambient REC exposures in the general population were estimated to confer lifetime risks of 0.14 to 14 per thousand, depending on assumptions made.

Diesel exhaust and respiratory dust exposure in miners and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in DEMS II

BACKGROUND

Diesel exhaust and respirable dust exposures in the mining industry have not been studied in depth with respect to non-malignant respiratory disease including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with most available evidence coming from other settings.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between occupational diesel exhaust and respirable dust exposures and COPD mortality, while addressing issues of survivor bias in exposed miners.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 11,817 male workers from the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study II, followed from 1947 to 2015, with 279 observed COPD deaths. We fit Cox proportional hazards models for the relationship between respirable elemental carbon (REC) and respirable dust (RD) exposure and COPD mortality. To address healthy worker survivor bias, we leveraged the parametric g-formula to assess effects of hypothetical interventions on both exposures.

RESULTS

Cox models yielded elevated estimates for the associations between average intensity of REC and RD and COPD mortality, with hazard ratios (HR) corresponding to an interquartile range width increase in exposure of 1.46 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.12, 1.91) and 1.20 (95 % CI: 0.96, 1.49), respectively for each exposure. HRs for cumulative exposures were negative for both REC and RD. Based on results from the parametric g-formula, the risk ratio (RR) for COPD mortality comparing risk under an intervention eliminating REC to the observed risk was 0.85 (95 % CI: 0.55, 1.06), equivalent to an attributable risk of 15 %. The corresponding RR comparing risk under an intervention eliminating RD to the observed risk was 0.93 (95 % CI: 0.56, 1.31).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings, based on data from a cohort of nonmetal miners, are suggestive of an increased risk of COPD mortality associated with REC and RD, as well as evidence of survivor bias in this population leading to negative associations between cumulative exposures and COPD mortality in traditional regression analysis.

Concentration-dependent alterations in the human plasma proteome following controlled exposure to diesel exhaust

Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) exposure is associated with systemic health effects, which can be studied using blood-based markers. Although we have previously shown that high TRAP concentrations alter the plasma proteome, the concentration-response relationship between blood proteins and TRAP is unexplored in controlled human exposure studies. We aimed to identify concentration-dependent plasma markers of diesel exhaust (DE), a model of TRAP. Fifteen healthy non-smokers were enrolled into a double-blinded, crossover study where they were exposed to filtered air (FA) and DE at 20, 50 and 150 μg/m3 PM2.5 for 4h, separated by ≥ 4-week washouts. We collected blood at 24h post-exposure and used label-free mass spectrometry to quantify proteins in plasma. Proteins exhibiting a concentration-response, as determined by linear mixed effects models (LMEMs), were assessed for pathway enrichment using WebGestalt. Top candidates, identified by sparse partial least squares discriminant analysis and LMEMs, were confirmed using enzyme-linked immunoassays. Thereafter, we assessed correlations between proteins that showed a DE concentration-response and acute inflammatory endpoints, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and methacholine provocation concentration causing a 20% drop in FEV1 (PC20). DE exposure was associated with concentration-dependent alterations in 45 proteins, which were enriched in complement pathways. Of the 9 proteins selected for confirmatory immunoassays, based on complementary bioinformatic approaches to narrow targets and availability of high-quality assays, complement factor I (CFI) exhibited a significant concentration-dependent decrease (-0.02 μg/mL per μg/m3 of PM2.5, p = 0.04). Comparing to FA at discrete concentrations, CFI trended downward at 50 (-2.14 ± 1.18, p = 0.08) and significantly decreased at 150 μg/m3 PM2.5 (-2.93 ± 1.18, p = 0.02). CFI levels were correlated with FEV1, PC20 and nasal interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-1β. This study details concentration-dependent alterations in the plasma proteome following DE exposure at concentrations relevant to occupational and community settings. CFI shows a robust concentration-response and association with established measures of airway function and inflammation.

Circadian epidemiology: Structuring circadian causes of disease and practical implications

That disruptions of the body's internal clockwork can lead to negative health consequences, including cancer, is a plausible hypothesis. Yet, despite strong mechanistic and animal support, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) experts considered epidemiological evidence as limited regarding the carcinogenicity of "shift-work involving circadian disruption" (2007) and "night shift work" (2019). We use directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to outline a concept of circadian causes that discloses challenges when choosing appropriate exposure variables. On this basis, we propose to move beyond shift-work alone as a direct cause of disease. Instead, quantifying chronodisruption as individual doses can lead to interpretable circadian epidemiology. The hypothesis is that doses of chronodisruption cause disrupted circadian organisation by leading to desynchronization of circadian rhythms. Chronodisruption can be conceptualized as the split physiological nexus of internal and external times. Biological (or internal) night - an individual's intrinsically favoured sleep time window - could be the backbone of circadian epidemiology. In practice, individual doses that cause disrupted circadian organisation are derived from the intersection of time intervals of being awake and an individual's biological night. After numerous studies counted work shifts, chronobiology may now advance circadian epidemiology with more specific dose estimation - albeit with greater challenges in measurement (time-dependent individual data) and analysis (time-dependent confounding).

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) II: Temporal Factors Related to Diesel Exhaust Exposure and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) was an important contributor to the International Agency for Research on Cancer reclassification of diesel exhaust as a Group I carcinogen and subsequent risk assessment. We extended the DEMS cohort follow-up by 18 y and the nested case-control study to include all newly identified lung cancer deaths and matched controls (DEMS II), nearly doubling the number of lung cancer deaths.

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to characterize the exposure-response relationship with a focus on the effects of timing of exposure and exposure cessation.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study of lung cancer nested in a cohort of 12,315 workers in eight nonmetal mines (376 lung cancer deaths, 718 controls). Controls were selected from workers who were alive when the case died, individually matched on mine, sex, race/ethnicity, and birth year (within 5 y). Based on an extensive historical exposure assessment, we estimated respirable elemental carbon (REC), an index of diesel exposure, for each cohort member. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by conditional regression analyses controlling for smoking and other confounders. To evaluate time windows of exposure, we evaluated the joint OR patterns for cumulative REC within each of four preselected exposure time windows, < 5 , 5-9, 10-19, and ≥ 20 y prior to death/reference date, and we evaluated the interaction of cumulative exposure across time windows under additive and multiplicative forms for the joint association.

RESULTS

ORs increased with increasing 15-y lagged cumulative exposure, peaking with a tripling of risk for exposures of ∼ 950  to < 1,700   μ g / m 3 -y [OR = 3.23 ; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47, 7.10], followed by a plateau/decline among the heavily exposed (OR = 1.85 ; 95% CI: 0.85, 4.04). Patterns of risk by cumulative REC exposure varied across four exposure time windows (p homogeneity < 0.001 ), with ORs increasing for exposures accrued primarily 10-19 y prior to death (p trend < 0.001 ). Results provided little support for a waning of risk among workers whose exposures ceased for ≥ 20 y.

CONCLUSION

DEMS II findings provide insight into the exposure-response relationship between diesel exhaust and lung cancer mortality. The pronounced effect of exposures occurring in the window 10-19 y prior to death, the sustained risk 20 or more years after exposure ceases, and the plateau/decline in risk among the most heavily exposed provide direction for future research on the mechanism of diesel-induced carcinogenesis in addition to having important implications for the assessment of risk from diesel exhaust by regulatory agencies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11980.

Revisiting the g-null Paradox

The (noniterative conditional expectation) parametric g-formula is an approach to estimating causal effects of sustained treatment strategies from observational data. An often-cited limitation of the parametric g-formula is the g-null paradox: a phenomenon in which model misspecification in the parametric g-formula is guaranteed in some settings consistent with the conditions that motivate its use (i.e., when identifiability conditions hold and measured time-varying confounders are affected by past treatment). Many users of the parametric g-formula acknowledge the g-null paradox as a limitation when reporting results but still require clarity on its meaning and implications. Here, we revisit the g-null paradox to clarify its role in causal inference studies. In doing so, we present analytic examples and a simulation-based illustration of the bias of parametric g-formula estimates under the conditions associated with this paradox. Our results highlight the importance of avoiding overly parsimonious models for the components of the g-formula when using this method.

Lung Cancer Mortality and Styrene Exposure in the Reinforced-Plastics Boatbuilding Industry: Evaluation of Healthy Worker Survivor Bias

The evidence for styrene's being a human lung carcinogen has been inconclusive. Occupational cohorts within the reinforced-plastics industry are an ideal population in which to study this association because of their relatively high levels of exposure to styrene and lack of concomitant exposures to other known carcinogens. However, healthy worker survivor bias (HWSB), where healthier workers stay employed longer and thus have higher exposure potential, is a likely source of confounding bias for exposure-response associations, in part due to styrene's acute effects. Through December 31, 2016, we studied a cohort of 5,163 boatbuilders exposed to styrene in Washington State who were employed between 1959 and 1978; prior regression analyses had demonstrated little evidence for an exposure-response relationship between styrene exposure and lung cancer mortality. Based on estimates of necessary components of HWSB, we found evidence for a potentially large HWSB. Using g-estimation of a structural nested model to account for HWSB, we estimated that 1 year of styrene exposure at more than 30 parts per million accelerated time to lung cancer death by 2.29 years (95% confidence interval: 1.53, 2.94). Our results suggest possibly strong HWSB in our small cohort and indicate that large, influential studies of styrene-exposed workers may suffer from similar biases, warranting a reassessment of the evidence of long-term health effects of styrene exposure.

Union Burying Ground: Mortality, Mortality Inequities, and Sinking Labor Union Membership in the United States

BACKGROUND

Over the last several decades in the United States, socioeconomic life-expectancy inequities have increased 1-2 years. Declining labor-union density has fueled growing income inequities across classes and exacerbated racial income inequities. Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, we examined the longitudinal union-mortality relationship and estimated whether declining union density has also exacerbated mortality inequities.

METHODS

Our sample included respondents ages 25-66 to the 1979-2015 PSID with mortality follow-up through age 68 and year 2017. To address healthy-worker bias, we used the parametric g-formula. First, we estimated how a scenario setting all (versus none) of respondents' employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years would have affected mortality incidence. Next, we examined gender, racial, and educational effect modification. Finally, we estimated how racial and educational mortality inequities would have changed if union-membership prevalence had remained at 1979 (vs. 2015) levels throughout follow-up.

RESULTS

In the full sample (respondents = 23,022, observations = 146,681), the union scenario was associated with lower mortality incidence than the nonunion scenario (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.80, 0.99; RD per 1,000 = -19, 95% CI = -37, -1). This protective association generally held across subgroups, although it was stronger among the more-educated. However, we found little evidence mortality inequities would have lessened if union membership had remained at 1979 levels.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this was the first individual-level US-based study with repeated union-membership measurements to analyze the union-mortality relationship. We estimated a protective union-mortality association, but found little evidence declining union density has exacerbated mortality inequities; importantly, we did not incorporate contextual-level effects. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B839.

Does the Union Make Us Strong? Labor-Union Membership, Self-Rated Health, and Mental Illness: A Parametric G-Formula Approach

Union members enjoy better wages and benefits and greater power than nonmembers, which can improve health. However, the longitudinal union-health relationship remains uncertain, partially because of healthy-worker bias, which cannot be addressed without high-quality data and methods that account for exposure-confounder feedback and structural nonpositivity. Applying one such method, the parametric g-formula, to US-based Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, we analyzed the longitudinal relationships between union membership, poor/fair self-rated health (SRH), and moderate mental illness (Kessler 6-item score of ≥5). The SRH analyses included 16,719 respondents followed from 1985-2017, while the mental-illness analyses included 5,813 respondents followed from 2001-2017. Using the parametric g-formula, we contrasted cumulative incidence of the outcomes under 2 scenarios, one in which we set all employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years (union scenario), and one in which we set no employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years (nonunion scenario). We also examined whether the contrast varied by sex, sex and race, and sex and education. Overall, the union scenario was not associated with reduced incidence of poor/fair SRH (relative risk = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95, 1.09; risk difference = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.03, 0.04) or moderate mental illness (relative risk = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.92, 1.12; risk difference = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04, 0.06) relative to the nonunion scenario. These associations largely did not vary by subgroup.

Associations between exposure to ethylene oxide, job termination, and cause-specific mortality risk

BACKGROUND

Previous analyses of mortality were conducted in a large cohort of ethylene oxide (EtO) exposed workers employed at 13 sterilization facilities throughout the U.S. and followed from the start of operation through 1998. Statistically significant elevated mortality was reported from hematopoietic cancer in men and breast cancer in women compared to the general population. Possible healthy worker survivor bias was not addressed.

METHODS

To examine survivor bias in this cohort, employment termination was analyzed with statistical models stratified on sex and race that included age, employment duration, and cumulative EtO exposure. To reduce survivor bias employment duration was included in Poisson regression model specifications for estimating standardized mortality ratios for several cancer outcomes.

RESULTS

Strong statistically significant effects of unlagged cumulative EtO exposure were observed on rate of employment termination, indicating potential healthy worker survivor effect bias. Adjustment for employment duration in analyses of mortality resulted in statistically significant and stronger associations between cumulative EtO exposure and lung cancer, female breast cancer and hematopoietic cancer. There was a striking reduction in nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality risk with increasing employment duration with a further (nonsignificant) reduction with cumulative EtO, suggesting that EtO itself is driving termination of workers with respiratory morbidity even though the average EtO exposures in this population were generally far below odor and acute irritancy thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

Important survivor bias was present in this EtO cohort and may be present in many occupational settings involving irritant exposures.

A Quantile-Based g-Computation Approach to Addressing the Effects of Exposure Mixtures

BACKGROUND

Exposure mixtures frequently occur in data across many domains, particularly in the fields of environmental and nutritional epidemiology. Various strategies have arisen to answer questions about exposure mixtures, including methods such as weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression that estimate a joint effect of the mixture components.

OBJECTIVES

We demonstrate a new approach to estimating the joint effects of a mixture: quantile g-computation. This approach combines the inferential simplicity of WQS regression with the flexibility of g-computation, a method of causal effect estimation. We use simulations to examine whether quantile g-computation and WQS regression can accurately and precisely estimate the effects of mixtures in a variety of common scenarios.

METHODS

We examine the bias, confidence interval (CI) coverage, and bias-variance tradeoff of quantile g-computation and WQS regression and how these quantities are impacted by the presence of noncausal exposures, exposure correlation, unmeasured confounding, and nonlinearity of exposure effects.

RESULTS

Quantile g-computation, unlike WQS regression, allows inference on mixture effects that is unbiased with appropriate CI coverage at sample sizes typically encountered in epidemiologic studies and when the assumptions of WQS regression are not met. Further, WQS regression can magnify bias from unmeasured confounding that might occur if important components of the mixture are omitted from the analysis.

DISCUSSION

Unlike inferential approaches that examine the effects of individual exposures while holding other exposures constant, methods like quantile g-computation that can estimate the effect of a mixture are essential for understanding the effects of potential public health actions that act on exposure sources. Our approach may serve to help bridge gaps between epidemiologic analysis and interventions such as regulations on industrial emissions or mining processes, dietary changes, or consumer behavioral changes that act on multiple exposures simultaneously. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5838.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality: The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS)

BACKGROUND

Miners are highly exposed to diesel exhaust emissions from powered equipment. Although biologically plausible, there is little evidence based on quantitative exposure assessment, that long-term diesel exposure increases risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). To fill this gap, we examined COPD mortality and diesel exhaust exposure in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS).

METHODS

We fit Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for COPD mortality and cumulative exposure (μg/m³-years) to respirable elemental carbon (REC), a key metric for diesel exhaust exposure. Separate models were fit for ever-underground and surface-only miners to allow for effect modification. Exposure was lagged by 0, 10 and 15 years. In a secondary analysis, we addressed the healthy worker survivor effect by applying the parametric g-formula to handle time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure among ever-underground workers.

RESULTS

Based on 140 cases, the HRs for COPD mortality increased as categories of lagged REC exposure increased for all workers. Among surface-only workers, those in the middle exposure category (0 lag) had a significantly elevated hazard ratio of 2.34 (95% CI: 1.11-4.61) relative to those in the lowest category. Among the ever-underground, that ratio was 1.35, with wide confidence intervals. Using the g-formula, we estimated that the lifetime cumulative risk of COPD mortality would have been reduced from the observed 5.0%-3.1% under a hypothetical intervention where all ever-underground workers were always unexposed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest long term exposure to diesel exhaust may increase risk of COPD in miners, though power was limited.

Cytotoxic and genotoxic effects in mechanics occupationally exposed to diesel engine exhaust

Diesel engine exhaust (DEE), which is the product of diesel combustion, is considered carcinogenic in humans. It comprises toxic gases, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and particulate matter which can reach the pulmonary parenchyma and trigger various diseases, including cancer. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the potential cytotoxic and genotoxic effects of DEE exposure on peripheral blood and buccal epithelial cells in mechanics occupationally exposed to DEE. We recruited 120 exposed mechanics and 100 non-exposed control individuals. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in terms of percentage of tail DNA and damage index (DI) in the alkaline comet assay; levels of biomarkers by cytokinesis-block micronucleus cytome (CBMN-Cyt) assay; frequency of micronucleus (MN), nucleoplasmic bridge (NPB), nuclear bud (NBUD) and apoptotic cells (APOP) and levels of biomarkers for micronucleus, karyorrhexis (KRX), karyolysis (KRL) and condensed chromatin (CC) by the buccal micronucleus cytome (BM-Cyt) assay. A significant and positive correlation was found between the frequency of MN in lymphocytes and buccal cells in the exposed group. Also, there was a significant correlation between age and percentage of tail DNA and DI in the comet assay, APOP and MN in the CBMN-Cyt assay and NBUD and MN in the BM-Cyt assay. Additionally, we found a positive and significant correlation of MN frequency in lymphocytes and buccal cells and age and MN frequency in lymphocytes with the time of service (years). Regarding lifestyle-related factors, a significant correlation was observed between meat and vitamin consumption and NBUD formation on CBMN-Cyt and between meat consumption and MN formation on CBMN-Cyt. Of the BM-Cyt biomarkers, there was a correlation between alcohol consumption and NBUD formation and between binucleated cell (BN), pyknosis (PYC), CC and KRL occurrence and family cancer history. These results are the first data in Colombia on the cytotoxic and genotoxic effects induced by continuous exposure to DEE and thus showed the usefulness of biomarkers of the comet, CBMN-Cyt and BM-Cyt assays for human biomonitoring and evaluation of cancer risk in the exposed populations.

Lung cancer mortality and exposure to synthetic metalworking fluid and biocides: controlling for the healthy worker survivor effect

OBJECTIVES

Synthetic metalworking fluids (MWFs), widely used to cool and lubricate industrial machining and grinding operations, have been linked with increased risk of several cancers. Estimates of their relation with lung cancer, however, are inconsistent. Controlling for the healthy worker survivor effect, we examined the relations between lung cancer mortality and exposure to synthetic MWF, as well as to biocides added to water-based fluids to control microbial growth, in a cohort of autoworkers. Biocides served as a marker for endotoxin, which has reported antitumour effects, and were hypothesised to be the reason prior studies found reduced lung cancer risk associated with exposure to synthetic fluids.

METHODS

Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated risk ratios (RRs) comparing cumulative lung cancer mortality under no intervention with what would have occurred under hypothetical interventions reducing exposure to zero (ie, a ban) separately for two exposures: synthetic fluids and biocides. We also specified an intervention on synthetic MWF and biocides simultaneously to estimate joint effects.

RESULTS

Under a synthetic MWF ban, we observed decreased lung cancer mortality risk at age 86, RR=0.96 (0.91-1.01), but when we also intervened to ban biocides, the RR increased to 1.03 (0.95-1.11). A biocide-only ban increased lung cancer mortality (RR=1.07 (1.00-1.16)), with slightly larger RR in younger ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest a modest positive association for synthetic MWF with lung cancer mortality, contrary to the negative associations reported in earlier studies. Biocide exposure, however, was inversely associated with risk of lung cancer mortality.

A review of time scale fundamentals in the g-formula and insidious selection bias

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review recent examples of data analysis with the g-formula, a powerful tool for analyzing longitudinal data and survival analysis. Specifically, we focus on the common choices of time scale and review inferential issues that may arise.

RECENT FINDINGS

Researchers are increasingly engaged with questions that require time scales subject to left-truncation and right-censoring. The assumptions necessary for allowing right-censoring are well defined in the literature, whereas similar assumptions for left-truncation are not well defined. Policy and biologic considerations sometimes dictate that observational data must be analyzed on time scales that are subject to left-truncation, such as age.

SUMMARY

Further consideration of left-truncation is needed, especially when biologic or policy considerations dictate that age is the relevant time scale of interest. Methodologic development is needed to reduce potential for bias when left-truncation may occur.

Estimating the Impact of Changes to Occupational Standards for Silica Exposure on Lung Cancer Mortality

BACKGROUND

Respiratory exposure to silica is associated with the risk of death owing to malignant and nonmalignant disease. 2.3 million US workers are exposed to silica. Occupational exposure limits for silica are derived from a number of lines of evidence, including observational studies. Observational studies may be subject to healthy worker survivor bias, which could result in underestimates of silica's impact on worker mortality and, in turn, bias risk estimates for occupational exposure limits.

METHODS

Using data on 65,999 workers pooled across multiple industries, we estimate the impacts of several hypothetical occupational exposure limits on silica exposure on lung cancer and all-cause mortality. We use the parametric g-formula, which can account for healthy worker survivor bias.

RESULTS

Assuming we could eliminate occupational exposure, we estimate that there would be 20.7 fewer deaths per 1,000 workers in our pooled study by age 80 (95% confidence interval = 14.5, 26.8), including 3.91 fewer deaths owing to lung cancer (95% CI = 1.53, 6.30). Less restrictive interventions demonstrated smaller but still substantial risk reductions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that occupational exposure limits for silica can be further strengthened to reduce silica-associated mortality and illustrate how current risk analysis for occupational limits can be improved.

Reanalysis of Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study Cohort Using Alternative Exposure Estimates and Radon Adjustment

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) (United States, 1947–1997) reported positive associations between diesel engine exhaust exposure, estimated as respirable elemental carbon (REC), and lung cancer mortality. This reanalysis of the DEMS cohort used an alternative estimate of REC exposure incorporating historical data on diesel equipment, engine horsepower, ventilation rates, and declines in particulate matter emissions per horsepower. Associations with cumulative REC and average REC intensity using the alternative REC estimate and other exposure estimates were generally attenuated compared with original DEMS REC estimates. Most findings were statistically nonsignificant; control for radon exposure substantially weakened associations with the original and alternative REC estimates. No association with original or alternative REC estimates was detected among miners who worked exclusively underground. Positive associations were detected among limestone workers, whereas no association with REC or radon was found among workers in the other 7 mines. The differences in results based on alternative exposure estimates, control for radon, and stratification by worker location or mine type highlight areas of uncertainty in the DEMS data.

Diesel Exhaust and Lung Cancer-Aftermath of Becoming an IARC Group 1 Carcinogen

The International Agency for Research on Cancer reclassified diesel exhaust from Group 2A (probably carcinogenic to humans) to Group 1 (carcinogenic to humans) in 2012. Since then, reevaluation and reanalysis of 2 major studies (Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study and Trucking Industry Particle Study) that were influential to the International Agency for Research on Cancer evaluation have replicated the original findings and demonstrated the suitability of these epidemiologic data for the quantitative risk assessment needed to set safe exposure limits in occupational and outdoor ambient environments. The challenge now is to protect the workers and general populations in urban areas from the carcinogenicity of diesel exhaust.

Preventable proportion of intubation-associated pneumonia: Role of adherence to a care bundle

Objective

The aim of the present study was to estimate the preventable proportion of Intubation-Associated Pneumonia (IAP) in the Intensive Care Units (ICUs) participating in the Italian Nosocomial Infections Surveillance in ICUs (SPIN-UTI) network, taking into account differences in intrinsic patients’ risk factors, and additionally considering the compliance with the European bundle for IAP prevention.

Methods

A prospective patient-based survey was conducted and all patients staying in ICU for more than 2 days were enrolled in the surveillance. Compliance with the bundle was assessed using a questionnaire for each intubated patient. A twofold analysis by the parametric g-formula was used to compute the number of infections to be expected if the infection incidence in all ICUs could be reduced to that one of the top-tenth-percentile-ranked ICUs and to that one of the ICU with the highest compliance to all five bundle components.

Results

A total of 1,840 patients and of 17 ICUs were included in the first analysis showing a preventable proportion of 44% of IAP. In a second analysis on a subset of data, considering compliance with the European bundle, a preventable proportion of 40% of IAP was shown. A significant negative trend of IAP incidences was observed with increasing number of bundle components performed (p<0.001) and a strong negative correlation between these two factors was shown (r = -0.882; p = 0.048).

Conclusions

The g-formula controlled for time-varying factors is a valuable approach for estimating the preventable proportion of IAP and the impact of interventions, based entirely on an observed population in a real-world setting. However, both the study design that cannot definitively prove a causative relationship between bundle compliance and IAP risk, and the small number of patients included in the care bundle compliance analysis, may represent limits of the study and further and larger studies should be conducted.

The Healthy Worker Survivor Effect: Target Parameters and Target Populations

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We offer an in-depth discussion of the time-varying confounding and selection bias mechanisms that give rise to the healthy worker survivor effect (HWSE).

RECENT FINDINGS

In this update of an earlier review, we distinguish between the mechanisms collectively known as the HWSE and the statistical bias that can result. This discussion highlights the importance of identifying both the target parameter and the target population for any research question in occupational epidemiology. Target parameters can correspond to hypothetical workplace interventions; we explore whether these target parameters' true values reflect the etiologic effect of an exposure on an outcome or the potential impact of enforcing an exposure limit in a more realistic setting. If a cohort includes workers hired before the start of follow-up, HWSE mechanisms can limit the transportability of the estimates to other target populations. We summarize recent publications that applied g-methods to control for the HWSE, focusing on their target parameters, target populations, and hypothetical interventions.

Assessment of the healthy worker survivor effect in cancer studies of the United Autoworkers-General Motors cohort

OBJECTIVE

The healthy worker survivor effect (HWSE) can affect the validity of occupational studies when data are analysed incorrectly. HWSE depends on three underlying conditions: (1) leaving work predicts future exposure, (2) leaving work is associated with disease outcome and (3) prior exposure increases probability of leaving work. If all these conditions are satisfied, then employment status is a time-varying confounder affected by prior exposure, and standard regression will produce bias. We assessed these conditions for cancer outcomes in a cohort of autoworkers exposed to metalworking fluids (MWF).

METHODS

The cohort includes 31 485 workers followed for cancer incidence from 1985 to 1994. As occupational exposures to straight, soluble and synthetic MWFs are necessarily zero after leaving work, condition (1) is satisfied. Cox models for cancer incidence and for employment termination were used to assess conditions (2) and (3), respectively. Employment termination by select ages was examined to better gauge the presence of condition (2).

RESULTS

The HR for leaving work as a predictor of all cancers combined and prostate cancer was null, but elevated for lung and colorectal cancers among men. Condition (2) was more clearly satisfied for all cancer outcomes when leaving work occurred by age 50. Higher exposures to all three MWF types were associated with increased rates of leaving work (condition (3)), with the exception of straight MWF among women.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence for the structural conditions underlying HWSE in a cohort of autoworkers. G-methods should be applied to reduce HWSE bias in studies of all cancers presently examined.

A critical review of the relationship between occupational exposure to diesel emissions and lung cancer risk

In 2012, a working group of the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified diesel exhaust (DE) as a human carcinogen (Group 1). This decision was primarily based on the findings of the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS). The disparity between the results of various methodological approaches applied to the DEMS led to several critical commentaries. An expert panel was subsequently set up by the Health Effects Institute to evaluate the DEMS results, together with a large study in the trucking industry. The panel concluded that both studies provided a useful basis for quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of DE exposure. However, the results of both studies were non-definitive as the studies suffer from several methodological shortcomings. We conducted a critical review of the studies used by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group to evaluate the relationship between DE and lung cancer. The aim was to assess whether the available studies support the statement of a causal relationship and, secondarily if they could be used for QRA. Our review highlights several methodological flaws in the studies, amongst them overadjustment bias, selection bias, and confounding bias. The conclusion from our review is that the currently published studies provide little evidence for a definite causal link between DE exposure and lung cancer risk. Based on two studies in miners, the DEMS and the German Potash Miners study, QRA may be conducted. However, the DEMS data should be reanalyzed in advance to avoid bias that affects the presently published risk estimates.