d-dimer as a Prognostic Biomarker for Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation

Elevated BUN Upon Admission as a Predictor of in-Hospital Mortality Among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of COPD: A Secondary Analysis of Multicenter Cohort Study

Background

High blood urea nitrogen (BUN) is observed in a subset of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) and may be linked to clinical outcome, but findings from previous studies have been inconsistent.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients prospectively enrolled in the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study (ChiCTR2100044625). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to determine the level of BUN that discriminated survivors and non-survivors. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess the impact of BUN on adverse outcomes.

Results

Overall, 13,431 consecutive inpatients with AECOPD were included in this study, of whom 173 died, with the mortality of 1.29%. The non-survivors had higher levels of BUN compared with the survivors [9.5 (6.8-15.3) vs 5.6 (4.3-7.5) mmol/L, P < 0.001]. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff of BUN level was 7.30 mmol/L for in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.782; 95% CI: 0.748-0.816; P < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, BUN level ≥7.3 mmol/L was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (HR = 2.099; 95% CI: 1.378-3.197, P = 0.001), also for invasive mechanical ventilation (HR = 1.540; 95% CI: 1.199-1.977, P = 0.001) and intensive care unit admission (HR = 1.344; 95% CI: 1.117-1.617, P = 0.002). Other independent prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality including age, renal dysfunction, heart failure, diastolic blood pressure, pulse rate, PaCO2 and D-dimer.

Conclusion

BUN is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in inpatients with AECOPD and may be used to identify serious (or severe) patients and guide the management of AECOPD.

Clinical Trial Registration

MAGNET AECOPD; Chinese Clinical Trail Registry NO.: ChiCTR2100044625; Registered March 2021, URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=121626.

Fibrin degradation products and survival in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a protocolized prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a high incidence of cardiovascular disease including thromboembolisms. Fibrin degradation products, like D-dimer, have been associated with death from all causes in healthy individuals and COPD patients. We aimed to determine the (i) association between D-dimer levels and all-cause mortality and time being alive and out of a hospital, (ii) possible modifying effect of anticoagulant treatment,, and (iii) distribution of D-dimer in patients with moderate to severe COPD.

METHODS

Results of routinely measured stable phase D-dimer samples from COPD-outpatients at Copenhagen University Hospital - Herlev and Gentofte, COPD-outpatient clinic were collected using the Danish registries. These were used to examine whether COPD-patients with a D-dimer level in the upper quartile, had a higher risk of death from all causes within 365 days.

RESULTS

In the unadjusted Cox proportional hazards regression we found an association between high D-dimer and all-cause mortality: Hazard ratio (HR): 2.3 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.1-4.7). In the fully adjusted regression, the HR was 1.8 (CI 0.8-3.9). We did not find any interaction between D-dimer and anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. For the secondary outcome, proportion of days alive and out of hospital in 365 days (pDAOH), the unadjusted multiple linear regression had an association between high D-dimer level and pDAOH: -2.7% points (pp) (CI -3.9 pp - -1.5 pp), which was attenuated to -1,7pp (-2.9pp - -0.4pp) in the fully adjusted regression.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with moderate to severe COPD, patients with a high level of D-dimer were more likely to die; however, the signal was not strong in the adjusted analyses and our results do not support unselected risk stratification with D-dimer in COPD-outpatients.

The Diagnostic Value of Inflammatory Markers (CRP, IL6, CRP/IL6, CRP/L, LCR) for Assessing the Severity of COVID-19 Symptoms Based on the MEWS and Predicting the Risk of Mortality

Introduction

Various diagnostic tools are used to assess the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and the risk of mortality, including laboratory tests and scoring indices such as the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). The diagnostic value of inflammatory markers for assessing patients with different severity of COVID-19 symptoms according to the MEWS was evaluated in this study.

Materials and Methods

The concentrations of CRP (C-reactive protein) (immunoassay) and IL6 (interleukin 6) (electrochemiluminescence assay) were determined, and CRP/IL6, CRP/L, and LCR ratios were calculated in blood serum samples collected from 374 COVID-19 patients.

Results

We demonstrated that CRP, IL6, CRP/IL6, CRP/L, LCR inflammatory markers increase significantly with disease progression assessed based on the MEWS in COVID-19 patients and may be used to differentiating patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19 and to assess the mortality.

Conclusion

The diagnostic value of inflammatory markers for assessing the risk of mortality and differentiating between patients with mild and severe COVID-19 was confirmed.

Diagnosis and Stratification of COVID-19 Infections Using Differential Plasma Levels of D-Dimer: A Two-Center Study from Saudi Arabia

Background: D-dimer, generated upon the degradation of fibrin, is extensively used to detect thrombosis in various diseases. It is also explored as a marker for thrombosis in cases with COVID-19 disease. Few studies have confirmed its utility as a marker for assessing disease severity. Objectives: The current research was undertaken to determine the role of D-dimer in patients with COVID-19 and to investigate any association with the progression and severity of the disease in the Saudi population. Methods: Clinical indices in confirmed COVID-19 patients were collected from tertiary care hospitals in Aljouf and Qassim regions. The plasma D-dimer levels were quantified directly in the samples collected from COVID-19 patients (n = 148) using an immunofluorescence assay, and the data were presented in Fibrinogen Equivalent Units (mg/L). The collected data of D-dimer were analyzed based on COVID-19 severity, age, and the gender of patients. Results: The findings show that the plasma D-dimer concentrations were significantly (p = 0.0027) elevated in COVID-19 cases (n = 148), compared to in the normal healthy uninfected controls (n = 309). Moreover, the D-dimer levels were analyzed according to the severity of the disease in the patients. The data revealed that D-dimer concentrations were significantly increased in patients with mild infection to moderate disease, and the levels were the highest in patients with severe COVID-19 disease (p < 0.05). Our analysis demonstrates that the D-dimer levels have no association with the age or gender of COVID-19 patients (p > 0.05) in the study population. Conclusions: D-dimer can serve as a biomarker not only for the detection of COVID-19 infection, but also for determining the severity of infection of COVID-19 disease.

Relationship between Antithrombin III Activity and Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

We aimed to explore the role of antithrombin III (AT-III) activity in diagnosing patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and chronic bronchitis, and its relationship with all-cause mortality of AECOPD patients. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of the factors determining all-cause mortality. We recruited 279 patients with AECOPD and 91 with chronic bronchitis. On admission, patients with AECOPD had lower AT-III activity (80.7 vs. 86.35%, p = 0.002) and higher neutrophil percentages (70.12 vs. 66.40%, p = 0.02) than those with chronic bronchitis. The patients who died were older (78 vs. 73 years, p < 0.001); had higher CRP (39.05 vs. 5.65 mg/L, p < 0.001), D-dimer (1.72 vs. 0.46 mg/L, p < 0.001), FIB (3.56 vs. 3.05 g/L, p = 0.01) levels; and exhibited lower AT-III activity (71.29 vs. 82.94%, p < 0.001) than the survivors. The AT-III area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting COPD all-cause mortality was 0.75 (p < 0.001), optimal cutoff point 79.75%, sensitivity 86.8%, and specificity 57.1%. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that increased levels of CRP (HR = 1.005, p = 0.02), D-dimer (HR = 1.17, p = 0.01), WBC count (HR = 1.11, p = 0.002), and reduced AT-III activity (HR = 0.97, p = 0.02) were independent prognostic factors for all-cause mortality. Patients with AT-III ≤ 79.75% were 4.52 times (p = 0.001) more likely to die than those with AT-III > 79.75%. AT-III activity was lower in patients with AECOPD than in those with chronic bronchitis and is potentially useful as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with AECOPD: reduced AT-III activity and increased CRP and D-dimer levels indicate a higher risk of all-cause mortality.

Performance of D-dimer to lymphocyte ratio in predicting the mortality of COVID-19 patients

Background

Nowadays, there is still no effective treatment developed for COVID-19, and early identification and supportive therapies are essential in reducing the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. This is the first study to evaluate D-dimer to lymphocyte ratio (DLR) as a prognostic utility in patients with COVID-19.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 611 patients and separated them into groups of survivors and non-survivors. The area under the curve (AUC) of various predictors integrated into the prognosis of COVID-19 was compared using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In order to ascertain the interaction between DLR and survival in COVID-19 patients, the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curve was chosen.

Results

Age (OR = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.022-1.086; P = 0.001), NLR (OR = 1.045; 95% CI, 1.001-1.091; P = 0.046), CRP (OR = 1.010; 95% CI, 1.005-1.016; P < 0.001), PT (OR = 1.184; 95% CI, 1.018-1.377; P = 0.029), and DLR (OR = 1.048; 95% CI, 1.018-1.078; P = 0.001) were the independent risk factors related with the mortality of COVID-19. DLR had the highest predictive value for COVID-19 mortality with the AUC of 0.924. Patients' survival was lower when compared to those with lower DLR (Log Rank P <0.001).

Conclusion

DLR might indicate a risk factor in the mortality of patients with COVID-19.

Fibrinolysis in COVID-19: Impact on Clot Lysis and Modulation of Inflammation

COVID-19 is a multisystem disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 and is associated with an imbalance between the coagulation and fibrinolytic systems. Overall, hypercoagulation, hypofibrinolysis and fibrin-clot resistance to fibrinolysis predispose patients to thrombotic and thromboembolic events. In the lungs, the virus triggers alveolar and interstitial fibrin deposition, endothelial dysfunction, and pulmonary intravascular coagulation, all events intrinsically associated with the activation of inflammation and organ injury. Adding to the pathogenesis of COVID-19, there is a positive feedback loop by which local fibrin deposition in the lungs can fuel inflammation and consequently dysregulates coagulation, a process known as immunothrombosis. Therefore, fibrinolysis plays a central role in maintaining hemostasis and tissue homeostasis during COVID-19 by cleaning fibrin clots and controlling feed-forward products of coagulation. In addition, components of the fibrinolytic system have important immunomodulatory roles, as evidenced by studies showing the contribution of Plasminogen/Plasmin (Plg/Pla) to the resolution of inflammation. Herein, we review clinical evidence for the dysregulation of the fibrinolytic system and discuss its contribution to thrombosis risk and exacerbated inflammation in severe COVID-19. We also discuss the current concept of an interplay between fibrinolysis and inflammation resolution, mirroring the well-known crosstalk between inflammation and coagulation. Finally, we consider the central role of the Plg/Pla system in resolving thromboinflammation, drawing attention to the overlooked consequences of COVID-19-associated fibrinolytic abnormalities to local and systemic inflammation.

Impact of Acute Exacerbation and Its Phenotypes on the Clinical Outcomes of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Hospitalized Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study

Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are clinically significant events having therapeutic and prognostic consequences. However, there is a lot of variation in its clinical manifestations described by phenotypes. The phenotypes of AECOPD were categorized in this study based on pathology and exposure. In our cross-sectional study, conducted between 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020, the patients were categorized into six groups based on pathology: non-bacterial and non-eosinophilic; bacterial; eosinophilic; bacterial infection with eosinophilia; pneumonia; and bronchiectasis. Further, four groups were classified based on exposure to tobacco smoke (TS), biomass smoke (BMS), both, or no exposure. Cox proportional-hazards regression analyses were performed to assess hazard ratios, and Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to assess survival, which was then compared using the log-rank test. The odds ratio (OR) and independent predictors of ward admission type and length of hospital stay were assessed using binomial logistic regression analyses. Of the 2236 subjects, 2194 were selected. The median age of the cohort was 67.0 (60.0 to 74.0) and 75.2% were males. Mortality rates were higher in females than in males (6.2% vs. 2.3%). AECOPD-B (bacterial infection) subjects [HR 95% CI 6.42 (3.06-13.46)], followed by AECOPD-P (pneumonia) subjects [HR (95% CI: 4.33 (2.01-9.30)], were at higher mortality risk and had a more extended hospital stay (6.0 (4.0 to 9.5) days; 6.0 (4.0 to 10.0). Subjects with TS and BMS-AECOPD [HR 95% CI 7.24 (1.53-34.29)], followed by BMS-AECOPD [HR 95% CI 5.28 (2.46-11.35)], had higher mortality risk. Different phenotypes have different impacts on AECOPD clinical outcomes. A better understanding of AECOPD phenotypes could contribute to developing an algorithm for the precise management of different phenotypes.

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a cohort of Chinese never smokers goes along with decreased risks of recurrent acute exacerbation, emphysema and comorbidity of lung cancer as well as decreased levels of circulating eosinophils and basophils

Acute exacerbations show a significant impact on disease morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In contrast to stable COPD, the association of smoking status with clinical and laboratory characteristics in patients with acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) has not been well studied. In this retrospective study, we compared never smokers and ever smokers on their demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics in a Chinese clinical cohort of AECOPD. In this cohort comprising 1,034 consecutive patients with AECOPD, never smokers were older (75 vs 70.5 years, padjusted &lt; 0.001) and had a higher body mass index than smokers (21.1 ± 4.0 vs 20.3 ± 3.4, padjusted = 0.028). Furthermore, never smokers showed a decreased risk of recurrent acute exacerbation (13.0 vs 21.8%, padjusted = 0.029), a lower risk of development of emphysema (77.8 vs 89.1%, padjusted &lt; 0.001), a lower prevalence of the co-morbidity of lung cancer (0.5 vs 6.6%, padjusted &lt; 0.001), lower levels of circulating eosinophils (EO; 0.04 × 109/L vs 0.10 × 109/L, padjusted = 0.007) and basophils (BA; 0.02 × 109/L vs 0.03 × 109/L, padjusted = 0.019), and a higher plasma levels of D-dimer (0.62 μg/ml vs 0.51 μg/ml, padjusted = 0.02). Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified several risk factor for the recurrent acute exacerbation, such as smoking [odds ratio (OR) = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.03–3.40, p = 0.044], urban residential area (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01–2.05, p = 0.045), and the presence of emphysema (OR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.25–4.69, p = 0.012). In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the smoking status of patients is associated with recurrent acute exacerbations, emphysema, lung cancer, and levels of circulating EO and BA in AECOPD. Identification of cigarette smoking as a risk factor for recurrent acute exacerbation supports behavioral intervention of smoking cessation in the management of patients with AECOPD.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of abnormalities in hematological and biochemical markers among Bangladeshi COVID-19 cases

Background and Aims

Abnormalities in hematological and biochemical markers are assumed to be associated with the progression of COVID-19 disease. This meta-analysis was performed to assess the consequences of abnormalities of biomarkers (D-dimers, C-reactive protein [CRP], serum ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase [LDH], random blood sugar [RBS], absolute neutrophil count [ANC], neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum creatinine, and hemoglobin) in the Bangladeshi COVID-19 patients.

Methods

The data of biomarker levels in Bangladeshi COVID-19 patients were gathered from five databases: PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Google Scholar and Bangladesh Journals Online between January 2020 to March 2022. Review Manager 5.4 was used for the meta-analysis, and Egger's test and Begg-Mazumdar's rank correlation were used to investigate publication bias.

Results

This study included 1542 patients with 567 severe and 975 nonsevere statuses. Based on the accumulated data synthesis, there is a strong correlation between disease severity and different biomarkers, including D-dimer, CRP, ferritin, LDH, RBS, NLR, and serum creatinine (MD = 1.16, p = 0.0004; MD = 22.97, p = 0.003; MD = 419.26, p < 0.00001; MD = 118.37, p = 0.004; MD = 1.96, p = 0.02; MD = 1.26, p = 0.02; and MD = 0.31, p = 0.008, respectively). A significantly decreased correlation was observed for hemoglobin levels in severe COVID-19 patients (MD = -0.73, p = 0.10).

Conclusion

The elevated biomarkers level was noticed in severe cases compared to nonsevere patients, revealing that D-dimer, CRP, ferritin, LDH, RBS, NLR, and serum creatinine are significantly correlated to COVID-19 severity. Only lower hemoglobin level was found to be associated with COVID-19 severity.

Novel prognostic determinants of COVID-19-related mortality: A pilot study on severely-ill patients in Russia

COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe healthcare challenge calling for an integrated approach in determining the clues for early non-invasive diagnostics of the potentially severe cases and efficient patient stratification. Here we analyze the clinical, laboratory and CT scan characteristics associated with high risk of COVID-19-related death outcome in the cohort of severely-ill patients in Russia. The data obtained reveal that elevated dead lymphocyte counts, decreased early apoptotic lymphocytes, decreased CD14+/HLA-Dr+ monocytes, increased expression of JNK in PBMCs, elevated IL-17 and decreased PAI-1 serum levels are associated with a high risk of COVID-19-related mortality thus suggesting them to be new prognostic factors. This set of determinants could be used as early predictors of potentially severe course of COVID-19 for trials of prevention or timely treatment.

Predictive Role of the D-Dimer Level in Acute Kidney Injury in Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

This study aimed to determine the association between serum D-dimer levels and the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). Clinical data of 675 patients undergoing LDLT were retrospectively analyzed. The exclusion criteria included a history of kidney dysfunction, emergency cases, and missing data. The final study population of 617 patients was divided into the normal and high D-dimer groups (cutoff: 0.5 mg/L). After LDLT, 145 patients (23.5%) developed AKI. A high D-dimer level (>0.5 mg/L) was an independent predictor of postoperative development of AKI in the multivariate analysis when combined with diabetes mellitus [DM], platelet count, and hourly urine output. AKI was significantly higher in the high D-dimer group than in the normal D-dimer group (odds ratio [OR], 2.792; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.227-6.353). Patients with a high D-dimer exhibited a higher incidence of early allograft dysfunction, longer intensive care unit stay, and a higher mortality rate. These results could improve the risk stratification of postoperative AKI development by encouraging the determination of preoperative D-dimer levels in patients undergoing LDLT.

Association between plasma glycocalyx component levels and poor prognosis in severe influenza type A (H1N1)

Influenza A virus infection causes a series of diseases, but the factors associated with disease severity are not fully understood. Disruption of the endothelial glycocalyx contributes to acute lung injury in sepsis, but has not been well studied in H1N1 influenza. We aim to determine whether the plasma glycocalyx components levels are predictive of disease severity in H1N1 influenza. This prospective observational study included 53 patients with influenza A (H1N1) during the influenza season, and 30 healthy controls in our hospital. Patients were grouped by severity and survival. We collected clinical data and blood samples at admission. Inflammatory factors (tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6, interleukin-10) and endothelial glycocalyx components (syndecan-1, hyaluronan, heparan sulfate) were measured. The plasma levels of syndecan-1, hyaluronan, and heparan sulfate were significantly higher in patients with severe influenza A (H1N1) than in mild cases. Syndecan-1 and hyaluronan were positively correlated with disease severity, which was indicated by the APACHE II and SOFA scores and lactate levels, and negatively correlated with albumin levels. At a cutoff point ≥ 173.9 ng/mL, syndecan-1 had a 81.3% sensitivity and 70.3% specificity for predicting of 28-day mortality. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a strong association between syndecan-1 levels and 28-day mortality (log-rank 11.04, P = 0.001). Elevated plasma levels of syndecan-1 has a potential role in systemic organ dysfunction and may be indicative of disease severity in patients with influenza A (H1N1).

2021 Guideline for the Management of COPD Exacerbations: Emergency Medicine Association of Turkey (EMAT) / Turkish Thoracic Society (TTS) Clinical Practice Guideline Task Force

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an important public health problem that manifests with exacerbations and causes serious mortality and morbidity in both developed and developing countries. COPD exacerbations usually present to emergency departments, where these patients are diagnosed and treated. Therefore, the Emergency Medicine Association of Turkey and the Turkish Thoracic Society jointly wanted to implement a guideline that evaluates the management of COPD exacerbations according to the current literature and provides evidence-based recommendations. In the management of COPD exacerbations, we aim to support the decision-making process of clinicians dealing with these patients in the emergency setting.

Pathogenesis, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Hemostatic Disorders in COVID-19 Patients

The novel coronavirus infection named COVID-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it has been responsible for significant morbidity and mortality in scores of countries. At the time this article was being written, the number of infected and deceased patients continued to grow worldwide. Most patients with severe forms of the disease suffer from pneumonia and pulmonary insufficiency; in many cases, the disease is generalized and causes multiple organ failures and a dysfunction of physiological systems. One of the most serious and prognostically ominous complications from COVID-19 is coagulopathy, in particular, decompensated hypercoagulability with the risk of developing disseminated intravascular coagulation. In most cases, local and diffuse macro- and microthromboses are present, a condition which causes multiple-organ failure and thromboembolic complications. The causes and pathogenic mechanisms of coagulopathy in COVID-19 remain largely unclear, but they are associated with systemic inflammation, including the so-called cytokine storm. Despite the relatively short period of the ongoing pandemic, laboratory signs of serious hemostatic disorders have been identified and measures for specific prevention and correction of thrombosis have been developed. This review discusses the causes of COVID-19 coagulopathies and the associated complications, as well as possible approaches to their early diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

Coagulation dysfunction in patients with AECOPD and its relation to infection and hypercapnia

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often have coagulation abnormalities. However, the factors that lead to coagulation dysfunction in acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) remain insufficiently explored. This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting coagulation status in patients with COPD and their influence on thrombosis.

METHODS

Data of COPD patients, including 135 cases in acute exacerbation stage and 44 cases in stable stage from Nov 2016 to Nov 2019 in our hospital, were collected. Healthy people (n = 135) were enrolled as the controls. The coagulation parameters, blood gas indexes and blood routine examination results were collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

White blood count (WBC), neutrophil count, neutrophil percentage (N%), platelet (PLT), prothrombin time (PT), international normalized ratio (INR), fibrinogen (FIB), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) increased, plasma thrombin time (TT) decreased in AECOPD group compared with the control group. In AECOPD group, PT, APTT, and FIB were positively correlated with neutrophils and C-reaction protein levels. PT was positively correlated with PCO2 and negatively with pH. Thrombosis was observed in five acute exacerbation and three stable stage COPD patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AECOPD presented abnormal coagulation status, which was correlated to infection and hypercapnia and might be potentially the risk factor of thrombosis.

Association between low mean corpuscular hemoglobin and prognosis in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Several studies have demonstrated the association between mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), a hematological index used for the assessment of anemia, and the prognosis of patients with heart disease. While the red cell distribution width (RDW) is known to be related to the prognosis of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), few studies have focused on the association between the MCHC and COPD. Therefore, we examined the association between the MCHC and prognosis in patients with exacerbation of COPD.

METHODS

We examined the association between the 30-day mortality and clinical findings in patients with COPD exacerbation who were hospitalized between October 2008 and December 2018.

RESULTS

We enrolled 195 patients with COPD exacerbation (average age: 76.4 years; 181 men, 14 women). The MCHC was significantly lower, while the RDW was significantly higher in the 27 patients (13.8%) who died during the 30-day observation period compared to those in the patients who survived. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the MCHC was independently associated with 30-day mortality. The area under the curve calculated from the MCHC obtained from peripheral blood was 0.688 and the cutoff value was 31.6 g/dL, with a sensitivity of 0.593 and specificity of 0.810 (p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The MCHC might be a valuable biomarker for evaluating the prognosis of patients with COPD exacerbation.

Establishment of risk prediction model and risk score for in-hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD

OBJECTIVE

Risk stratification for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) may help clinicians choose appropriate treatments and improve the quality of care.

METHODS

A total of 695 patients hospitalized with AECOPD from January 2015 to December 2017 were considered. They were assigned to a death and a survival cohort. The independent prognostic factors were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Meanwhile, we also compared the new scale with three other scores and tested the new scale internally and externally.

RESULTS

A new risk score was created, made up of six independent variables: age, D-dimer, albumin, cardiac troponin I, partial pressure of carbon dioxide and oxygenation index. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for the model was 0.929, and the other three CURB-65, DECAF and BAP-65 models were 0.718, 0.922 and 0.708. The Cohen's kappa coefficient between the new scale and DECAF was calculated to be 0.648, suggesting that there is a substantial consistency between the two. In the internal and external validation cohorts, 490 and 500 patients were recruited with a total mortality rate of 5.15%. The AUROC for in-hospital mortality was 0.937 in the internal cohort and 0.914 in external cohort, which was significantly better than the scores for CURB-65 and BAP-65, but it was not significantly different from the DECAF.

CONCLUSIONS

The new scale may help to stratify the risk of in-hospital mortality of AECOPD. The DECAF performed as well as the new instrument, and it appears to be valid in Chinese patients.

D-dimer as a biomarker for disease severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients: a case control study

Background

Over 5,488,000 cases of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) have been reported since December 2019. We aim to explore risk factors associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients and assess the use of D-dimer as a biomarker for disease severity and clinical outcome.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics of 248 consecutive cases of COVID-19 in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China from January 28 to March 08, 2020. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods were used to explore risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Correlations of D-dimer upon admission with disease severity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff level for D-dimer that discriminated those survivors versus non-survivors during hospitalization.

Results

Multivariable regression that showed D-dimer > 2.0 mg/L at admission was the only variable associated with increased odds of mortality [OR 10.17 (95% CI 1.10–94.38), P = 0.041]. D-dimer elevation (≥ 0.50 mg/L) was seen in 74.6% (185/248) of the patients. Pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis were ruled out in patients with high probability of thrombosis. D-dimer levels significantly increased with increasing severity of COVID-19 as determined by clinical staging (Kendall’s tau-b = 0.374, P = 0.000) and chest CT staging (Kendall’s tau-b = 0.378, P = 0.000). In-hospital mortality rate was 6.9%. Median D-dimer level in non-survivors (n = 17) was significantly higher than in survivors (n = 231) [6.21 (3.79–16.01) mg/L versus 1.02 (0.47–2.66) mg/L, P = 0.000]. D-dimer level of > 2.14 mg/L predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 71.3% (AUC 0.85; 95% CI = 0.77–0.92).

Conclusions

D-dimer is commonly elevated in patients with COVID-19. D-dimer levels correlate with disease severity and are a reliable prognostic marker for in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19.

Dynamic changes of D-dimer and neutrophil-lymphocyte count ratio as prognostic biomarkers in COVID-19

Background

Since December 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 caused a large number of hospital admissions in China. Many patients with COVID-19 have symptoms of acute respiratory distress syndrome, even are in danger of death. This is the first study to evaluate dynamic changes of D-Dimer and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Count Ratio (NLR) as a prognostic utility in patients with COVID-19 for clinical use.

Methods

In a retrospective study, we collected data from 349 hospitalized patients who diagnosed as the infection of the COVID-19 in Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital. We used ROC curves and Cox regression analysis to explore critical value (optimal cut-off point associated with Youden index) and prognostic role of dynamic changes of D-Dimer and NLR.

Results

Three hundred forty-nine participants were enrolled in this study and the mortality rate of the patients with laboratory diagnosed COVID-19 was 14.9%. The initial and peak value of D-Dimer and NLR in deceased patients were higher statistically compared with survivors (P < 0.001). There was a more significant upward trend of D-Dimer and NLR during hospitalization in the deceased patients, initial D-Dimer and NLR were lower than the peak tests (MD) -25.23, 95% CI: − 31.81- -18.64, P < 0.001; (MD) -43.73, 95% CI:-59.28- -31.17, P < 0.001. The test showed a stronger correlation between hospitalization days, PCT and peak D-Dimer than initial D-Dimer. The areas under the ROC curves of peak D-Dimer and peak NLR tests were higher than the initial tests (0.94(95%CI: 0.90–0.98) vs. 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73–0.87); 0.93 (95%CI:0.90–0.96) vs. 0.86 (95%CI:0.82–0.91). The critical value of initial D-Dimer, peak D-Dimer, initial NLR and peak NLR was 0.73 mg/L, 3.78 mg/L,7.13 and 14.31 respectively. 35 (10.03%) patients were intubated. In the intubated patients, initial and peak D-Dimer and NLR were much higher than non-intubated patients (P < 0.001). The critical value of initial D-Dimer, peak D-Dimer, initial NLR and peak NLR in prognosticate of intubation was 0.73 mg/L, 12.75 mg/L,7.28 and 27.55. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.07, P = 0.01), the peak D-Dimer (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.04, P < 0.001) were prognostic factors for COVID-19 patients’ death.

Conclusions

To dynamically observe the ratio of D-Dimer and NLR was more valuable during the prognosis of COVID-19. The rising trend in D-Dimer and NLR, or the test results higher than the critical values may indicate a risk of death for participants with COVID-19.

Serum β2-Microglobulin is Associated with Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Exacerbated Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose

We hypothesized that increased level of serum β2-microglobulin (β2M) is an independent factor associated with higher mortality in hospitalized patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 488 hospitalized patients with exacerbated COPD as the first diagnosis at Beijing Chao-Yang hospital, P. R. China between December 31st, 2012 and December 28th, 2017. Concentrations of serum β2M and other clinical indexes were measured or collected on admission, and all patients were followed up to 90 days. The relationship between β2M and 30- and 90-day all-cause mortality was explored by Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, C-reactive protein values, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide/100, respiratory failure [RF, defined as partial arterial oxygen pressure (PaO₂) <60 mmHg on room air or PaO₂ over the fraction of inspired oxygen (PaO₂/FiO₂) < 300], eosinopenia, consolidation, and acidaemia.

Results

Median concentrations of β2M were significantly higher in non-survivals compared to survivals within 30 days (4.11 mg/L (IQR 3.10–6.60) vs 2.79mg/L (IQR 2.13–3.76), P < 0.001) and 90 days (3.79 mg/L (IQR 2.61–6.69) vs 2.79 mg/L (IQR 2.13–3.73), P < 0.001). Serum levels of β2M were correlated with 30-day and 90-day mortality in overall exacerbated COPD patients, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.09 (95% CI 1.04–1.14, P = 0.001) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.05–1.14, P < 0.001). In exacerbated COPD patients without RF and with RF, the HRs were 1.06 (95% CI 0.995–1.137, P = 0.069) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.02–1.27, P = 0.021) for 30-day mortality, 1.09 (95% CI 1.02–1.15, P = 0.010) and 1.14 (95% CI 1.03–1.26, P = 0.014) for 90-day mortality, respectively.

Conclusion

Our data showed that concentrations of serum β2M were associated with an increased risk of mortality, suggesting that β2M might be a valuable predictor of poor prognosis for hospitalized patients with exacerbated COPD.

How may we improve clinical outcomes for patients hospitalized with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease? A narrative review about possible therapeutic and preventive strategies

Introduction: In a subset of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)patients the course of the disease is complicated by a severe acute exacerbations (AECOPD) that may require hospitalization, at which time negative outcomes may occur up to 30 days after discharge. Several predictors of negative outcomes have been documented.Areas covered: We considered five negative outcomes related to patients hospitalized with AECOPD: treatment failure, noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) failure, prolonged length of hospital stay (LHS), short-term mortality (≤ 90 days from admission and including the in-hospital mortality), and early readmission (≤30 days from discharge). Possible therapeutic and preventive strategies to improve these outcomes are outlined and discussed.Expert opinion: Several strategies have been proposed to improve outcomes. Among these, steroid or antibiotic use may reduce the risks of treatment failure or of prolonged hospital stay. We note that operator-related factors may influence the outcome of NIMV. However, little has been documented about the short-term mortality or early readmission rates. In general, few interventions consistently improve negative outcomes and prognosis of AECOPD.

D-dimer as a biomarker for disease severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients: a case control study

BACKGROUND

Over 5,488,000 cases of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) have been reported since December 2019. We aim to explore risk factors associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients and assess the use of D-dimer as a biomarker for disease severity and clinical outcome.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics of 248 consecutive cases of COVID-19 in Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China from January 28 to March 08, 2020. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods were used to explore risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Correlations of D-dimer upon admission with disease severity and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff level for D-dimer that discriminated those survivors versus non-survivors during hospitalization.

RESULTS

Multivariable regression that showed D-dimer > 2.0 mg/L at admission was the only variable associated with increased odds of mortality [OR 10.17 (95% CI 1.10-94.38), P = 0.041]. D-dimer elevation (≥ 0.50 mg/L) was seen in 74.6% (185/248) of the patients. Pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis were ruled out in patients with high probability of thrombosis. D-dimer levels significantly increased with increasing severity of COVID-19 as determined by clinical staging (Kendall's tau-b = 0.374, P = 0.000) and chest CT staging (Kendall's tau-b = 0.378, P = 0.000). In-hospital mortality rate was 6.9%. Median D-dimer level in non-survivors (n = 17) was significantly higher than in survivors (n = 231) [6.21 (3.79-16.01) mg/L versus 1.02 (0.47-2.66) mg/L, P = 0.000]. D-dimer level of > 2.14 mg/L predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 71.3% (AUC 0.85; 95% CI = 0.77-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

D-dimer is commonly elevated in patients with COVID-19. D-dimer levels correlate with disease severity and are a reliable prognostic marker for in-hospital mortality in patients admitted for COVID-19.

Heart-type fatty acid binding protein as a prognostic factor in patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

The designation of some cardiac-specific proteins as prognostic biomarkers in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations suggest that the process of exacerbation involves cardiomyocyte injury. Among these cardiac biomarkers, heart-type fatty acid binding protein (h-FABP) is considered a very sensitive diagnostic marker for cardiomyocyte injury and a prognostic marker in chronic heart failure. However, the prognostic usefulness of h-FABP in patients with COPD remains unclear.

METHODS

Sixty-six patients were enrolled in this study. Subjects who recovered from COPD exacerbation and were discharged without needing home oxygen therapy were defined as the improved group. Those who died of the COPD exacerbations, were discharged but needed home oxygen therapy, or were transferred to a rehabilitation hospital for respiratory failure and the remaining aftereffects of exacerbation were defined as the unimproved group.

RESULTS

The improved and unimproved groups included 54 and 12 subjects, respectively. Compared with the improved group, the unimproved group had significantly higher white blood cell counts and alanine aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), uric acid, potassium, and h-FABP levels, and significantly lower total protein and total cholesterol levels and estimated glomerular filtration rates, either at admission or during the early morning within 24h after admission. A multivariate analysis revealed that higher serum h-FABP and potassium levels were independently predictive of a poor prognosis following a COPD exacerbation, and a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis yielded a cutoff of 4.5ng/ml for predicting lack of improvement.

CONCLUSION

H-FABP may predict the outcomes of COPD exacerbation.

Prognostic role of D-dimer for in-hospital and 1-year mortality in exacerbations of COPD

Background and objective

Serum D-dimer is elevated in respiratory disease. The objective of our study was to investigate the effect of D-dimer on in-hospital and 1-year mortality after acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Methods

Upon admission, we measured 343 AECOPD patients’ serum D-dimer levels and arterial blood gas analysis, and recorded their clinical characteristics. The level of D-dimer that discriminated survivors and non-survivors was determined using a receiver operator curve (ROC). The risk factors for in-hospital mortality were identified through univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression analyses. To evaluate the predictive role of D-dimer for 1-year mortality, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed.

Results

In all, 28 patients died, and 315 patients survived in the in-hospital period. The group of dead patients had lower pH levels (7.35±0.11 vs 7.39±0.05, P<0.0001), higher D-dimer, arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO₂), C-reactive protein (CRP), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels (D-dimer 2,244.9±2,310.7 vs 768.2±1,078.4 µg/L, P<0.0001; PaCO₂: 58.8±29.7 vs 46.1±27.0 mmHg, P=0.018; CRP: 81.5±66, P=0.001; BUN: 10.20±6.87 vs 6.15±3.15 mmol/L, P<0.0001), and lower hemoglobin levels (118.6±29.4 vs 128.3±18.2 g/L, P=0.001). The areas under the ROC curves of D-dimer for in-hospital death were 0.748 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.641–0.854). D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was a risk factor for in-hospital mortality (relative risk =6.51; 95% CI 3.06–13.83). Multivariate logistic regression analysis also showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L and heart failure were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that D-dimer ≥985 ng/L was an independent risk factor for 1-year death (hazard ratio (HR) 3.48, 95% CI 2.07–5.85 for the univariate analysis; and HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.05–3.65 for the multivariate analysis).

Conclusion

D-dimer was a strong and independent risk factor for in-hospital and 1-year death for AECOPD patients.

Editor's Choice-Biomarkers of acute cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases

Acute cardiothoracic and respiratory diseases frequently remain a challenge to diagnose and differentiate in the emergency setting. The main diseases that manifest with chest pain include ischaemic heart disease, myocarditis, acute pericarditis, aortic dissection/rupture and pulmonary embolism (PE). Diseases that primarily present with dyspnoea include heart failure (HF), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), pneumonia, asthma exacerbations and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Pre-test probabilities of clinical findings play a vital part in diagnostic decisions, and the use of a Bayesian approach to these greatly improves the ability to stratify patients more accurately. However, blood tests (biomarkers) are increasingly used to assist in rapid decision-making in the emergency setting in combination with imaging methods such as chest radiograph, ultrasound and increasingly computed tomography, as well as physiological tests such as the electrocardiogram in addition to physical examination. Specific tests for ischaemic heart disease and myocarditis (cardiac troponins), HF (B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP)), aortic dissection (smooth muscle markers) and PE (D-dimer) have been developed. Surfactant protein-D and interleukin-8 have been developed for ARDS. Additionally, circulating microRNAs have emerged as promising biomarker candidates in cardiovascular disease. With this increasing array of biochemical markers to aid in the diagnosis of chest diseases presenting with chest pain and dyspnoea, we herein review the clinical usefulness of these markers, in particular in differentiating cardiac from pulmonary diseases. A symptom-oriented assessment as necessary for use in the critical setting is described in addition to discussion of individual biomarkers.

Predictors for mortality from respiratory failure in a general population

Risk factors for death from respiratory failure in the general population are not established. The aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of individuals who die of respiratory failure in a Japanese general population. In total, 3253 adults aged 40 years or older participated in annual health check in Takahata, Yamagata, Japan from 2004 to 2006. Subject deaths through the end of 2010 were reviewed; 27 subjects died of respiratory failure (pneumonia, n = 22; COPD, n = 1; pulmonary fibrosis, n = 3; and bronchial asthma, n = 1). Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that male sex; higher age, high levels of D-dimer and fibrinogen; lower body mass index (BMI) and total cholesterol; and history of stroke and gastric ulcer were independent risk factors for respiratory death. On analysis with C-statistics, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement, addition of the disease history and laboratory data significantly improved the model prediction for respiratory death using age and BMI. In conclusion, we identified risk factors for mortality from respiratory failure in a prospective cohort of a Japanese general population. Men who were older, underweight, hypocholesterolemic, hypercoagulo-fibrinolytic, and had a history of stroke or gastric ulcer had a higher risk of mortality due to respiratory failure.

Acute exacerbation of COPD

The literature of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is fast expanding. This review focuses on several aspects of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) including epidemiology, diagnosis and management. COPD poses a major health and economic burden in the Asia-Pacific region, as it does worldwide. Triggering factors of AECOPD include infectious (bacteria and viruses) and environmental (air pollution and meteorological effect) factors. Disruption in the dynamic balance between the 'pathogens' (viral and bacterial) and the normal bacterial communities that constitute the lung microbiome likely contributes to the risk of exacerbations. The diagnostic approach to AECOPD varies based on the clinical setting and severity of the exacerbation. After history and examination, a number of investigations may be useful, including oximetry, sputum culture, chest X-ray and blood tests for inflammatory markers. Arterial blood gases should be considered in severe exacerbations, to characterize respiratory failure. Depending on the severity, the acute management of AECOPD involves use of bronchodilators, steroids, antibiotics, oxygen and noninvasive ventilation. Hospitalization may be required, for severe exacerbations. Nonpharmacological interventions including disease-specific self-management, pulmonary rehabilitation, early medical follow-up, home visits by respiratory health workers, integrated programmes and telehealth-assisted hospital at home have been studied during hospitalization and shortly after discharge in patients who have had a recent AECOPD. Pharmacological approaches to reducing risk of future exacerbations include long-acting bronchodilators, inhaled steroids, mucolytics, vaccinations and long-term macrolides. Further studies are needed to assess the cost-effectiveness of these interventions in preventing COPD exacerbations.

nCD64 index as a prognostic biomarker for mortality in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROOUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. However, there are still no easily obtained biomarkers for prognosis. As a high-affinity Fc receptor, CD64 is an early marker of immune response to bacterial infection, but its role in acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) remains incompletely understood.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the prognostic role of the neutrophial CD64 (nCD64) index in AECOPD patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study of all patient admitted between January 2013 to May 2014.

SETTING

Provincial hospitals affiliated with a university.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data were collected in patients admitted for AECOPD and stable COPD patients, in whom nCD64 index was obtained. A receiver operating characteristics curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off levels for the nCD64 index that discriminated survivors versus nonsurvivors during index hospitalization, and during a post-discharge period of 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

nCD64 index level.

RESULTS

The white blood cell count, CRP (C-reactive protein (CRP) and PCT (procalcitonin) in AECOPD subjects (n=31) were all significantly higher than in controls (n=18) (P= 3.3 predicted in-hospital mortality with a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 83%, respectively (area under the ROC=0.887; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.721-0.972, P < .001). An nCD64 index of 3.3 upon admission as the optimal cut-off level to predict post-discharge mortality had a sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 75%, respectively (area under the ROC=0.842; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.667-0.948, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

An elevated nCD64 index was a reliable prognostic biomarker for both short-term and long-term mortality in patients admitted for AECOPD.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective design prevented collection of enough evidence to demonstrate infectious origin for COPD in every patient. Unsure whether nCD64 differed between bacterial and viral exacerbation.

Serum Metabolite Biomarkers Discriminate Healthy Smokers from COPD Smokers

COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) is defined by a fixed expiratory airflow obstruction associated with disordered airways and alveolar destruction. COPD is caused by cigarette smoking and is the third greatest cause of mortality in the US. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) is the only validated clinical marker of COPD, but it correlates poorly with clinical features and is not sensitive enough to predict the early onset of disease. Using LC/MS global untargeted metabolite profiling of serum samples from a well-defined cohort of healthy smokers (n = 37), COPD smokers (n = 41) and non-smokers (n = 37), we sought to discover serum metabolic markers with known and/or unknown molecular identities that are associated with early-onset COPD. A total of 1,181 distinct molecular ions were detected in 95% of sera from all study subjects and 23 were found to be differentially-expressed in COPD-smokers vs. healthy-smokers. These 23 putative biomarkers were differentially-correlated with lung function parameters and used to generate a COPD prediction model possessing 87.8% sensitivity and 86.5% specificity. In an independent validation set, this model correctly predicted COPD in 8/10 individuals. These serum biomarkers included myoinositol, glycerophopshoinositol, fumarate, cysteinesulfonic acid, a modified version of fibrinogen peptide B (mFBP), and three doubly-charged peptides with undefined sequence that significantly and positively correlate with mFBP levels. Together, elevated levels of serum mFBP and additional disease-associated biomarkers point to a role for chronic inflammation, thrombosis, and oxidative stress in remodeling of the COPD airways. Serum metabolite biomarkers offer a promising and accessible window for recognition of early-stage COPD.

The Pneumonia Severity Index as a Predictor of In-Hospital Mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Objective

To determine whether the pneumonia severity index (PSI) can predict in-hospital mortality for AECOPD patients and compare its usefulness with the CURB65 and BAP65 indexes to predict mortality.

Methods

Demographics, clinical signs and symptoms, comorbidities, and laboratory and radiographic findings of hospitalized AECOPD patients were obtained. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The PSI, CURB65 and BAP65 scores were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the PSI, CURB65 and BAP65 scores that could discriminate between non-survivors and survivors. To control for the confounding factor of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) regarding the mortality of AECOPD, subgroup analysis was performed when excluded patients who had met the criteria of IMV but who had not received the cure of IMV according to their wishes.

Results

During the in-hospital period, 73 patients died and 679 patients recovered. Age, PaO₂<60 mmHg, pH < 7.35, PaCO2≥50 mmHg, nursing home residency, congestive heart failure, liver disease, sodium<130 mmol/L, lower FEV1% and altered mental status were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of the PSI for death were 0.847 (95% CI: 0.799-0.895). The cut-off value was 116.5 with a sensitivity of 82.2% and a specificity of 77.6%. However, the AUCs of the CURB65 and BAP65 for death were only 0.744 (95% CI: 0.680-0.809) and 0.665 (95% CI: 0.594-0.736), respectively. Subgroup analysis also showed that the PSI score could predict the mortality of AECOPD patients with an AUC = 0.857 (95% CI: 0.802-0.913), with exclusion of the patients who met the criteria of IMV but who did not receive the cure of IMV.

Conclusion

The PSI score may be used to predict in-hospital mortality for hospitalized AECOPD patients, with a prognostic capacity superior to CURB65 and BAP65.