Rate of AIDS diseases or death in HIV-infected antiretroviral therapy-naive individuals with high CD4 cell count

Mortality and Attrition Rates within the First Year of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation among People Living with HIV in Guangxi, China: An Observational Cohort Study

Objective

To assess the mortality and attrition rates within the first year of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) in rural Guangxi, China.

Design

Observational cohort study. Setting. The core treatment indicators and data were collected with standard and essential procedures as per the Free ART Manual guidelines across all the rural health care centers of Guangxi. Participants. 58,115 PLHIV who were under ART were included in the study. Interventions. The data collected included sociodemographic characteristics that consist of age, sex, marital status, route of HIV transmission, CD4 cell count before ART, initial ART regimen, level of ART site, and year of ART initiation. Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures. Mortality and attrition rate following ART initiation.

Results

The average mortality rate was 5.94 deaths, and 17.52 attritions per 100 person-years within the first year of ART initiation among PLHIV. The mortality rate was higher among intravenous drug users (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 1.27, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.14-1.43), prefecture as a level of ART site (AHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28), and county as the level of ART site (AHR 2.12, 95% CI 1.90-2.37). Attrition was higher among intravenous drug users (AHR 1.87, 95% CI 1.75-2.00), the first-line ART containing AZT (AHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03-1.16), and first-line ART containing LVP/r (AHR 1.34, 95% CI 1.23-1.46).

Conclusion

The mortality and attrition rates were both at the highest level in the first year of post-ART; continued improvement in the quality of HIV treatment and care is needed.

Delineation of Homeostatic Immune Signatures Defining Viremic Non-progression in HIV-1 Infection

Viremic non-progressors (VNPs), a distinct group of HIV-1-infected individuals, exhibit no signs of disease progression and maintain persistently elevated CD4+ T cell counts for several years despite high viral replication. Comprehensive characterization of homeostatic cellular immune signatures in VNPs can provide unique insights into mechanisms responsible for coping with viral pathogenesis as well as identifying strategies for immune restoration under clinically relevant settings such as antiretroviral therapy (ART) failure. We report a novel homeostatic signature in VNPs, the preservation of the central memory CD4+ T cell (CD4+ T_CM) compartment. In addition, CD4+ T_CM preservation was supported by ongoing interleukin-7 (IL-7)-mediated thymic repopulation of naive CD4+ T cells leading to intact CD4+ T cell homeostasis in VNPs. Regulatory T cell (Treg) expansion was found to be a function of preserved CD4+ T cell count and CD4+ T cell activation independent of disease status. However, in light of continual depletion of CD4+ T cell count in progressors but not in VNPs, Tregs appear to be involved in lack of disease progression despite high viremia. In addition to these homeostatic mechanisms resisting CD4+ T cell depletion in VNPs, a relative diminution of terminally differentiated effector subset was observed exclusively in these individuals that might ameliorate consequences of high viral replication. VNPs also shared signatures of impaired CD8+ T cell cytotoxic function with progressors evidenced by increased exhaustion (PD-1 upregulation) and CD127 (IL-7Rα) downregulation contributing to persistent viremia. Thus, the homeostatic immune signatures reported in our study suggest a complex multifactorial mechanism accounting for non-progression in VNPs.

Is increased screening and early antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 worth the investment? An analysis of the public health and economic impact of improvement in the UK

OBJECTIVES

Early treatment of HIV-1 infection at all CD4 levels has demonstrated clinical and public health benefits. This analysis examined the costs, health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of increased HIV-1 screening and early treatment initiation in the UK.

METHODS

A Markov model followed theoretical cohorts of men who have sex with men (MSM), heterosexuals, and people who inject drugs (PWID) with initially undiagnosed HIV-1 infection over their remaining lifetimes. The analysis examined increased HIV-1 screening (resulting in 10-50% improvements in diagnosis rates) versus current screening in sexual health services (SHS) and other settings, with all individuals initiating treatment within 3 months of diagnosis. Health status was modelled by viral load and CD4 cell count as individuals progressed to diagnosis and treatment. Individuals accrued quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incurred costs for screening and HIV-related clinical management, and were at risk of transmitting HIV-1 infection to their partners. Input parameter data were taken primarily from UK-specific published sources. All outcomes were discounted at 3.5% annually.

RESULTS

The model estimated that increased screening and early treatment resulted in fewer onward HIV transmissions, more QALYs, and higher total costs. For SHS, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for heterosexuals (~£22 000/QALY gained) were within typical UK willingness-to-pay thresholds and were well below these thresholds for MSM (~£9500/QALY gained) and PWID (~£6500/QALY gained). Sensitivity analysis showed that model results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased HIV-1 screening and early treatment initiation may be a cost-effective strategy to reduce HIV transmission and improve health for MSM, heterosexuals, and PWID in the UK.

Predictors of mortality in adult people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nepal: A retrospective cohort study, 2004-2013

Background

In Nepal, since 2004, 19,388 people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to measure mortality rate and to identify predictors of mortality in adult (≥15 years) PLHIV who initiated ART between 2004 and 2013 in five large ART centers of Nepal.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study of 3,799 (60.5% male) adult PLHIV uses secondary data collected from standard ART registers. Time from ART initiation (baseline) to death or censoring (loss to follow-up or December 31, 2013) was assessed. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate the probability of mortality over time. Predictors of mortality were determined using Cox-regression models.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 6.98 (95% CI: 6.46–7.54) per 100 person-years, 4.11 (95% CI: 3.53–4.79) in females and 9.14 (95% CI: 8.36–9.99) in males. Mortality rates were higher in early months after ART initiation, particularly in the first three months. Baseline predictors of mortality were ART center, male gender (adjusted HR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.69–2.57), residence outside the ART district (AHR = 1.45, 95% CI:1.19–1.76), World Health Organization clinical stage III (AHR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.13–2.46) and IV (AHR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45–3.36), bedridden <50% time in the last month (AHR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.52–2.41), bedridden >50% time in the last month (AHR = 3.82, 95% CI: 2.95–4.94), lower bodyweight/kg (AHR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03–1.05), CD4 count <150 cell/mm³ (AHR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.05–4.34) and treatment not switched to second-line regimen (AHR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.35–6.90).

Conclusions

Mortality rates were higher soon after ART initiation, particularly in males and gradually decreased over time. Poor baseline clinical characteristics were significantly associated with higher mortality. Increased ART coverage with decentralization of sites to lower levels including community dispensing, differentiated and improved service delivery and initiation of ART at a less advanced disease stage may reduce early mortality.

Treatment of HIV among tuberculosis patients: A replication study of timing of antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1-associated tuberculosis

Co-diagnosis of HIV and tuberculosis presents a treatment dilemma. Starting both treatments at the same time can cause a flood of immune response called immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) which can be lethal. But, how long to delay HIV treatment is less understood. In 2011, based on the conclusions of three separate studies, WHO recommended starting HIV treatment earlier for those with later HIV disease progression. This paper conducts a replication study of one of the three studies, by Havlir and colleagues. Using their publicly available data, we were able to replicate most of the results presented in the original paper. In our measurement and estimation analyses we use different estimation techniques to assess the robustness of the results. We find that adjusting for loss to follow-up does not affect the main results of the paper. However, an ANCOVA estimation and an instrumental variable model weaken the main result of the paper of better outcomes with early HIV treatment only for those who are sicker, reducing significance from the 5% to the 10% level. A change-point analysis also detects no changes in effect by timing of HIV treatment initiation or different thresholds of CD4 count for the primary outcome. This result suggests that the choice of start time for HIV treatment initiation should be based on other factors including potential drug interactions, overlapping side effects, a high pill burden and severity of illness rather than CD4 threshold and preset timeframes. While we caution against overgeneralizing, the result of this replication is aligned with more recent studies that show no evidence that early initiation of HIV treatment reduces mortality for any patients.

Reduced Cancer Survival Among Adults With HIV and AIDS-Defining Illnesses Despite No Difference in Cancer Stage at Diagnosis

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether immune dysfunction is associated with increased risk of death after cancer diagnosis in persons with HIV (PWH). AIDS-defining illness (ADI) can signal significant immunosuppression. Our objective was to determine differences in cancer stage and mortality rates in PWH with and without history of ADI.

METHODS

PWH with anal, oropharynx, cervical, lung cancers, or Hodgkin lymphoma diagnoses from January 2000 to December 2009 in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design were included.

RESULTS

Among 81,865 PWH, 814 had diagnoses included in the study; 341 (39%) had a history of ADI at time of cancer diagnosis. For each cancer type, stage at diagnosis did not differ by ADI (P > 0.05). Mortality and survival estimates for cervical cancer were limited by n = 5 diagnoses. Adjusted mortality rate ratios showed a 30%-70% increase in mortality among those with ADI for all cancer diagnoses, although only lung cancer was statistically significant. Survival after lung cancer diagnosis was poorer in PWH with ADI vs. without (P = 0.0001); the probability of survival was also poorer in those with ADI at, or before other cancers although not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH with a history of ADI at lung cancer diagnosis had higher mortality and poorer survival after diagnosis compared to those without. Although not statistically significant, the findings of increased mortality and decreased survival among those with ADI (vs. without) were consistent for all other cancers, suggesting the need for further investigations into the role of HIV-related immune suppression and cancer outcomes.

Suboptimal immune recovery during antiretroviral therapy with sustained HIV suppression in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To assess incidence, determinants and clinical consequences of suboptimal immune recovery in HIV-1 infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa with sustained viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

DESIGN

Multicountry prospective cohort.

METHODS

Suboptimal immune recovery was defined as proportions of participants who failed to attain clinically relevant CD4+ cell count thresholds (>200, >350 and >500 cells/μl) despite sustained viral suppression on continuous first-line ART. Participants were censored at the earliest of death, loss to follow-up, last viral load less than 50 copies/ml, or database closure. Determinants of immune recovery were assessed using multivariable Cox regression. We estimated incidence rates of AIDS, pulmonary tuberculosis and all-cause mortality for CD4+ strata.

RESULTS

One thousand, five hundred and ninety-two participants were included; 60% were women, median age was 37 years (IQR 31-43) and median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 147 cells/μl (IQR 76-215). After 6 years of ART, suboptimal immune recovery at CD4+ cell counts less than 200 cells/μl, less than 350  cells/μl, and less than 500 cells/μl occurred in 7, 27, and 57% of participants, respectively. Compared with participants with CD4+ cell count greater than 500 cells/μl, on-ART incidence rates were 12.5, 4.1, 0.9 times higher for AIDS and 16.9, 3.5, and 2.3 times higher for pulmonary tuberculosis in participants with CD4+ cell count less than 200, 200-349, and 350-499 cells/μl, respectively. All-cause mortality was highest in participants with CD4+ cell count less than 200 cells/μl, and comparable across the higher CD4+ strata. Older age, male sex, and lower pre-ART CD4+ cell count were strongly associated with suboptimal immune recovery.

CONCLUSION

These findings warrant close clinical and laboratory monitoring until adequate immune reconstitution is achieved and support early ART initiation before decline of CD4+ cell count.

Where is the greatest impact of uncontrolled HIV infection on AIDS and non-AIDS events in HIV?

OBJECTIVE

The extent to which controlled and uncontrolled HIV interact with ageing, European region of care and calendar year of follow-up is largely unknown.

METHOD

EuroSIDA participants were followed after 1 January 2001 and grouped according to current HIV progression risk; high risk (CD4 cell count ≤350/μl, viral load ≥10 000 copies/ml), low risk (CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/μl, viral load <50 copies/ml) and intermediate (other combinations). Poisson regression investigated interactions between HIV progression risk, age, European region of care and year of follow-up and incidence of AIDS or non-AIDS events.

RESULTS

A total of 16 839 persons were included with 136 688 person-years of follow-up. In persons aged 30 years or less, those at high risk had a six-fold increased incidence of non-AIDS compared with those at low risk, compared with a two-to-three-fold increase in older persons (P = 0.0004, interaction). In Eastern Europe, those at highest risk of non-AIDS had a 12-fold increased incidence compared with a two-to-four-fold difference in all other regions (P = 0.0029, interaction). Those at high risk of non-AIDS during 2001-2004 had a two-fold increased incidence compared with those at low risk, increasing to a five-fold increase between 2013 and 2016 (P < 0.0001, interaction). Differences among high, intermediate and low risk of AIDS were similar across age groups, year of follow-up and Europe (P = 0.57, 0.060 and 0.090, respectively, interaction).

CONCLUSION

Factors other than optimal control of HIV become increasingly important with ageing for predicting non-AIDS, whereas differences across Europe reflect differences in patient management as well as underlying socioeconomic circumstances. The differences between those at high, intermediate and low risk of non-AIDS between 2013 and 2016 likely reflects better quality of care.

Association of CD4+ T-cell Count, HIV-1 RNA Viral Load, and Antiretroviral Therapy With Kaposi Sarcoma Risk Among HIV-infected Persons in the United States and Canada

BACKGROUND

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) remains common among HIV-infected persons. To better understand KS etiology and to help target prevention efforts, we comprehensively examined a variety of CD4 T-cell count and HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) measures, as well as antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, to determine independent predictors of KS risk.

SETTING

North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

METHODS

We followed HIV-infected persons during 1996-2009 from 18 cohorts. We used time-updated Cox regression to model relationships between KS risk and recent, lagged, trajectory, and cumulative CD4 count or VL measures, as well as ART use. We used Akaike's information criterion and global P values to derive a final model.

RESULTS

In separate models, the relationship between each measure and KS risk was highly significant (P < 0.0001). Our final mutually adjusted model included recent CD4 count [hazard ratio (HR) for <50 vs. ≥500 cells/μL = 12.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.5 to 23.8], recent VL (HR for ≥100,000 vs. ≤500 copies/mL = 3.8; 95% CI: 2.0 to 7.3), and cumulative (time-weighted mean) VL (HR for ≥100,000 vs. ≤500 copies/mL = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.0 to 5.9). Each P-trend was <0.0001. After adjusting for these measures, we did not detect an independent association between ART use and KS risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggested a multifactorial etiology for KS, with early and late phases of development. The cumulative VL effect suggested that controlling HIV replication promptly after HIV diagnosis is important for KS prevention. We observed no evidence for direct anti-KS activity of ART, independent of CD4 count and VL.

Management of precancerous anal intraepithelial lesions in human immunodeficiency virus-positive men who have sex with men: Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) are at disproportionately high risk for anal cancer. There is no definitive approach to the management of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), which are precursors of anal cancer, and evidence suggests that posttreatment adjuvant quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) vaccination improves HSIL treatment effectiveness. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the optimal HSIL management strategy with respect to clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness and to identify the optimal age for initiating HSIL management.

METHODS

A decision analytic model of the natural history of anal carcinoma and HSIL management strategies was constructed for HIV-positive MSM who were 27 years old or older. The model was informed by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database and published studies. Outcomes included the lifetime cost, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, cumulative risk of cancer and cancer-related deaths, and cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Active monitoring was the most effective approach in patients 29 years or younger; thereafter, HSIL treatment plus adjuvant qHPV vaccination became most effective. When cost-effectiveness was considered (ie, an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] < $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year), do nothing was cost-effective until the age of 38 years, and HSIL treatment plus adjuvant qHPV vaccination was cost-effective beyond the age of 38 years (95% confidence interval, 34-43 years). The ICER decreased as the age at HSIL management increased. Outcomes were sensitive to the rate of HSIL regression or progression and the cost of high-resolution anoscopy and biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

The management of HSIL in HIV-positive MSM who are 38 years old or older with treatment plus adjuvant qHPV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective. The conservative approach of no treatment is likely to be cost-effective in younger patients. Cancer 2017;123:4709-4719. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Frequency and impact of suboptimal immune recovery on first-line antiretroviral therapy within the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS in East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To describe patterns of suboptimal immune recovery (SO-IR) and associated HIV-related-illnesses during the first 5 years following first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation across seven ART sites in East Africa.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of data from seven ART clinical sites (three Uganda, two Kenya and two Tanzania).

METHODS

SO-IR was described by proportions of ART-treated adults with CD4 cell counts less than 200, less than 350 and less than 500 cells/μl. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis techniques were used to assess predictors of SO-IR, and incident rates of HIV-related illnesses at CD4 cell counts less than 200, 200-350, 351-499, and >500 cells/μl, respectively.

RESULTS

Overall 80 843 adults initiated non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based first-line ART; 65% were women and median CD4 cell count was 126 [interquartile range (IQR), 52-202] cells/μl. Cumulative probability of SO-IR <200 cells/μl, <350 cells/μl and <500 cells/μl, after 5 years, was 11, 38 and 63%, respectively. Incidence of HIV-related illnesses was higher among those with CD4 cell counts less than 200 and 200-350 cells/μl, than those who achieved CD4 counts above these thresholds. The most common events, at CD4 < 200 cells/μl, were pulmonary tuberculosis [incident rate 15.98 (15.47-16.51)/100 person-years at risk (PYAR), oral candidiasis [incident rate 12.5 (12.03-12.94)] and herpes zoster [incident rate 6.30 (5.99-6.64)] events/100 PYAR. With attainment of a CD4 cell count level 200-350 cells/μl, there was a substantial reduction in events/100 PYAR - by 91% to 1.45 (1.29-1.63) for TB, by 94% to 0.75 (0.64-0.89) for oral candidiasis, by 84% to 0.99 (0.86-1.14) for Herpes Zoster, and by 78% to 1.22 (1.07-1.39) for chronic diarrhea. The incidence of all events decreased further with CD4 counts above these thresholds.

CONCLUSION

Around 40% of adults initiated on ART have suboptimal immune recovery with CD4 counts <350 cells/μl after five years. Such patients will require closer monitoring for both HIV-related and non-HIV-related clinical events.

Late Presentation into Care of HIV Disease and Its Associated Factors in Asia: Results of TAHOD

Many HIV-infected individuals do not enter health care until late in the infection course. Despite encouraging earlier testing, this situation has continued for several years. We investigated the prevalence of late presenters and factors associated with late presentation among HIV-infected patients in an Asian regional cohort. This cohort study included HIV-infected patients with their first positive HIV test during 2003-2012 and CD4 count and clinical status data within 3 months of that test. Factors associated with late presentation into care (CD4 count <200 cells/μl or an AIDS-defining event within ±3 months of first positive HIV test) were analyzed in a random effects logistic regression model. Among 3,744 patients, 2,681 (72%) were late presenters. In the multivariable model, older patients were more likely to be late presenters than younger (≤30 years) patients [31-40, 41-50, and ≥51 years: odds ratio (OR) = 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.31-1.88; OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.58-2.56; and OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.23-2.31, respectively; all p ≤ 0.001]. Injecting drug users (IDU) were more likely (OR = 2.15, 95% CI 1.42-3.27, p < 0.001) and those with homosexual HIV exposure were less likely (OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.35-0.58, p < 0.001) to be late presenters compared to those with heterosexual HIV exposure. Females were less likely to be late presenters (OR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.36-0.53, p < 0.001). The year of first positive HIV test was not associated with late presentation. Efforts to reduce the patients who first seek HIV care at the late stage are needed. The identified risk factors associated with late presentation should be utilized in formulating targeted public health intervention to improve earlier entry into HIV care.

Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy in Early Asymptomatic HIV Infection

BACKGROUND

Data from randomized trials are lacking on the benefits and risks of initiating antiretroviral therapy in patients with asymptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection who have a CD4+ count of more than 350 cells per cubic millimeter.

METHODS

We randomly assigned HIV-positive adults who had a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter to start antiretroviral therapy immediately (immediate-initiation group) or to defer it until the CD4+ count decreased to 350 cells per cubic millimeter or until the development of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or another condition that dictated the use of antiretroviral therapy (deferred-initiation group). The primary composite end point was any serious AIDS-related event, serious non-AIDS-related event, or death from any cause.

RESULTS

A total of 4685 patients were followed for a mean of 3.0 years. At study entry, the median HIV viral load was 12,759 copies per milliliter, and the median CD4+ count was 651 cells per cubic millimeter. On May 15, 2015, on the basis of an interim analysis, the data and safety monitoring board determined that the study question had been answered and recommended that patients in the deferred-initiation group be offered antiretroviral therapy. The primary end point occurred in 42 patients in the immediate-initiation group (1.8%; 0.60 events per 100 person-years), as compared with 96 patients in the deferred-initiation group (4.1%; 1.38 events per 100 person-years), for a hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 0.62; P<0.001). Hazard ratios for serious AIDS-related and serious non-AIDS-related events were 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.50; P<0.001) and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.38 to 0.97; P=0.04), respectively. More than two thirds of the primary end points (68%) occurred in patients with a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter. The risks of a grade 4 event were similar in the two groups, as were the risks of unscheduled hospital admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive adults with a CD4+ count of more than 500 cells per cubic millimeter provided net benefits over starting such therapy in patients after the CD4+ count had declined to 350 cells per cubic millimeter. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; START ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00867048.).

Long-Term Outcomes of Adding HPV Vaccine to the Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia Treatment Regimen in HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence shows that quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) vaccination in men who have sex with men (MSM) who have a history of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN) was associated with a 50% reduction in the risk of recurrent HGAIN. We evaluated the long-term clinical and economic outcomes of adding the qHPV vaccine to the treatment regimen for HGAIN in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive MSM aged ≥27 years.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov model based on anal histology in HIV-positive MSM comparing qHPV vaccination with no vaccination after treatment for HGAIN, the current practice. The model parameters, including baseline prevalence, disease transitions, costs, and utilities, were either obtained from the literature or calibrated using a natural history model of anal carcinogenesis. The model outputs included lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years, and lifetime risk of developing anal cancer. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of qHPV vaccination compared to no qHPV vaccination and decrease in lifetime risk of anal cancer. We also conducted deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

Use of qHPV vaccination after treatment for HGAIN decreased the lifetime risk of anal cancer by 63% compared with no vaccination. The qHPV vaccination strategy was cost saving; it decreased lifetime costs by $419 and increased quality-adjusted life years by 0.16. Results were robust to the sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating HIV-positive MSM aged ≥27 years with qHPV vaccine after treatment for HGAIN is a cost-saving strategy. Therefore, expansion of current vaccination guidelines to include this population should be a high priority.

Morbidity and mortality according to latest CD4+ cell count among HIV positive individuals in South Africa who enrolled in project Phidisa

BACKGROUND

Short-term morbidity and mortality rates for HIV positive soldiers in the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) would inform decisions about deployment and HIV disease management. Risks were determined according to the latest CD4+ cell count and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV positive individuals in the SANDF and their dependents.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A total of 7,114 participants were enrolled and followed for mortality over a median of 4.7 years (IQR: 1.9, 7.1 years). For a planned subset (5,976), progression of disease (POD) and grade 4, potentially life-threatening events were also ascertained. CD4+ count and viral load were measured every 3 to 6 months. Poisson regression was used to compare event rates by latest CD4+ count (<50, 50-99, 100-199, 200-349, 350-499, 500+) with a focus on upper three strata, and to estimate relative risks (RRs) (ART/no ART). Median entry CD4+ was 207 cells/mm3. During follow-up over 70% were prescribed ART. Over follow-up 1,226 participants died; rates ranged from 57.6 (< 50 cells) to 0.8 (500+ cells) per 100 person years (py). Compared to those with latest CD4+ 200-349 (2.2/100 py), death rates were significantly lower (p<0.001), as expected, for those with 350-499 (0.9/100 py) and with 500+ cells (0.8/100 py). The composite outcome of death, POD or grade 4 events occurred in 2,302 participants (4,045 events); rates were similar in higher CD4+ count strata (9.4 for 350-499 and 7.9 for 500+ cells) and lower than those with counts 200-349 cells (13.5) (p<0.001). For those with latest CD4+ 350+ cells, 63% of the composite outcomes (680 of 1,074) were grade 4 events.

CONCLUSION

Rates of morbidity and mortality are lowest among those with CD4+ count of 350 or higher and rates do not differ for those with counts of 350-499 versus 500+ cells. Grade 4 events are the predominant morbidity for participants with CD4+ counts of 350+ cells.

Trends on epidemiological, virological, and clinical features among newly diagnosed HIV-1 persons in Northwest Spain over the last 10 years

To describe temporal trend and characteristics of newly HIV-diagnosed patients in a medical care area in Northwest Spain over the last 10 years. All newly diagnosed patients for HIV-infection from 2004 to 2013 at a reference medical care area in Northwest of Spain were identified. Epidemiological, virological, immunological, and clinical data, as well as HIV genotype and drug resistance information were recorded. A total of 565 newly HIV-diagnosed patients were identified. The number of new cases increased in the last 5 years (66 cases/year). Overall, 53.1% had a median CD4 counts < 350 cells/µl and 33.6% had an AIDS defining criteria. Non-B variants were found in 34.4% of patients being subtype F (25.8%) the most common non-B subtype. The rate of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) over the study period was 3.7%, but a decreased to 2.6% was observed in the last 5 years. The most prevalent TDR mutations were: T215 revertants (1.5%), K219QENR (1.2%), for NRTIs; K103N (1.9%), for NNRTIs; L90M (0.3%), for PIs. Overall, 73.2% of patients started antiretroviral treatment and 9.9% of patients died during follow-up. The number of newly HIV diagnosed patients increased since year 2009. There is a high prevalence of late diagnosis (53%) and 33% had an AIDS defining criteria. Interestingly, the most prevalent non-B subtype in our population was F (25.8%). These findings support the need to facilitate the access for HIV testing to reduce the rate of late HIV diagnosis, improve the clinical outcome and prevent HIV transmission.

Severe morbidity according to sex in the era of combined antiretroviral therapy: the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends and determinants of severe morbidity in HIV-infected women and men.

DESIGN

A French prospective cohort of HIV-infected patients of both sexes and all transmission categories.

METHODS

We used hospital admission data from January 2000 to December 2008. A severe morbid event (SME) was defined as a clinical event requiring hospitalization for ≥48 h, several events could be reported during hospitalization. Yearly incidence rates of SME were estimated and compared using Generalized Estimating Equations.

RESULTS

Among 4,987 patients (27% women), followed for a median of 8.7 years, 1,473 (30%) were hospitalized (3,049 hospitalizations for 5,963 SME). The yearly incidence rate of hospitalization decreased in men, from 155 in 2000 to 80/1,000 person-years (PY) in 2008 and in women, from 125 to 71/1,000 PY, (p<0.001). This trend was observed for all SME except for hepatic events, stable in men (15 to 13/1,000 PY) and increasing in women (2.5 to 11.5), cardiovascular events increasing in men (6 to 10/1,000 PY) and in women (6 to 14) and non-AIDS non-hepatic malignancies increasing in men (4 to 7/1,000 PY) and stable in women (2.5). Intraveneous drug users, age >50 years, HIV RNA >10,000 copies, CD4 <500/mm3, AIDS stage, hepatitis C co-infection and cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes, high blood pressure, and tobacco use) were associated with SME.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-infected individuals in care in France require less and less frequently hospitalization. Women are now presenting with severe hepatic and cardio-vascular events. Disparities in SME between men and women are primarily explained by different exposure patterns to risk factors. Women should be targeted to benefit cardiovascular prevention policies as well as men.

Effects of early versus delayed initiation of antiretroviral treatment on clinical outcomes of HIV-1 infection: results from the phase 3 HPTN 052 randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Use of antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 infection has decreased AIDS-related morbidity and mortality and prevents sexual transmission of HIV-1. However, the best time to initiate antiretroviral treatment to reduce progression of HIV-1 infection or non-AIDS clinical events is unknown. We reported previously that early antiretroviral treatment reduced HIV-1 transmission by 96%. We aimed to compare the effects of early and delayed initiation of antiretroviral treatment on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The HPTN 052 trial is a randomised controlled trial done at 13 sites in nine countries. We enrolled HIV-1-serodiscordant couples to the study and randomly allocated them to either early or delayed antiretroviral treatment by use of permuted block randomisation, stratified by site. Random assignment was unblinded. The HIV-1-infected member of every couple initiated antiretroviral treatment either on entry into the study (early treatment group) or after a decline in CD4 count or with onset of an AIDS-related illness (delayed treatment group). Primary events were AIDS clinical events (WHO stage 4 HIV-1 disease, tuberculosis, and severe bacterial infections) and the following serious medical conditions unrelated to AIDS: serious cardiovascular or vascular disease, serious liver disease, end-stage renal disease, new-onset diabetes mellitus, and non-AIDS malignant disease. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00074581.

FINDINGS

1763 people with HIV-1 infection and a serodiscordant partner were enrolled in the study; 886 were assigned early antiretroviral treatment and 877 to the delayed treatment group (two individuals were excluded from this group after randomisation). Median CD4 counts at randomisation were 442 (IQR 373-522) cells per μL in patients assigned to the early treatment group and 428 (357-522) cells per μL in those allocated delayed antiretroviral treatment. In the delayed group, antiretroviral treatment was initiated at a median CD4 count of 230 (IQR 197-249) cells per μL. Primary clinical events were reported in 57 individuals assigned to early treatment initiation versus 77 people allocated to delayed antiretroviral treatment (hazard ratio 0·73, 95% CI 0·52-1·03; p=0·074). New-onset AIDS events were recorded in 40 participants assigned to early antiretroviral treatment versus 61 allocated delayed initiation (0·64, 0·43-0·96; p=0·031), tuberculosis developed in 17 versus 34 patients, respectively (0·49, 0·28-0·89, p=0·018), and primary non-AIDS events were rare (12 in the early group vs nine with delayed treatment). In total, 498 primary and secondary outcomes occurred in the early treatment group (incidence 24·9 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 22·5-27·5) versus 585 in the delayed treatment group (29·2 per 100 person-years, 26·5-32·1; p=0·025). 26 people died, 11 who were allocated to early antiretroviral treatment and 15 who were assigned to the delayed treatment group.

INTERPRETATION

Early initiation of antiretroviral treatment delayed the time to AIDS events and decreased the incidence of primary and secondary outcomes. The clinical benefits recorded, combined with the striking reduction in HIV-1 transmission risk previously reported, provides strong support for earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment.

FUNDING

US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention is a combination strategy

In the past several years, the debate of "treatment vs prevention" has shifted with the introduction of the concept of "treatment as prevention," (TasP), stemming from a series of compelling observational, ecological, and modeling studies as well as HPTN 052, a randomized clinical trial, demonstrating that use of ART is associated with a decrease in HIV transmission. In addition to TasP being viewed as 1 intervention in a combination strategy for HIV Prevention, TasP is, in and of itself, a combination of multiple interventions that need to be implemented with high coverage in order to achieve its potential impact.

The incidence of AIDS-defining illnesses at a current CD4 count ≥ 200 cells/μL in the post-combination antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND

Few studies consider the incidence of individual AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) at higher CD4 counts, relevant on a population level for monitoring and resource allocation.

METHODS

Individuals from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) aged ≥14 years with ≥1 CD4 count of ≥200 µL between 1998 and 2010 were included. Incidence rates (per 1000 person-years of follow-up [PYFU]) were calculated for each ADI within different CD4 strata; Poisson regression, using generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors, was used to model rates of ADIs with current CD4 ≥500/µL.

RESULTS

A total of 12 135 ADIs occurred at a CD4 count of ≥200 cells/µL among 207 539 persons with 1 154 803 PYFU. Incidence rates declined from 20.5 per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.0-21.1 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 200-349 cells/µL to 4.1 per 1000 PYFU (95% CI, 3.6-4.6 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 ≥ 1000 cells/µL. Persons with a current CD4 of 500-749 cells/µL had a significantly higher rate of ADIs (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.32), whereas those with a current CD4 of ≥1000 cells/µL had a similar rate (aIRR, 0.92; 95% CI, .79-1.07), compared to a current CD4 of 750-999 cells/µL. Results were consistent in persons with high or low viral load. Findings were stronger for malignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.25-1.86) than for nonmalignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25), comparing persons with a current CD4 of 500-749 cells/µL to 750-999 cells/µL.

DISCUSSION

The incidence of ADIs was higher in individuals with a current CD4 count of 500-749 cells/µL compared to those with a CD4 count of 750-999 cells/µL, but did not decrease further at higher CD4 counts. Results were similar in patients virologically suppressed on combination antiretroviral therapy, suggesting that immune reconstitution is not complete until the CD4 increases to >750 cells/µL.

Older HIV-infected individuals present late and have a higher mortality: Brighton, UK cohort study

Background

Initiating therapy with a low CD4 cell count is associated with a substantially greater risk of disease progression and death than earlier initiation. We examined factors associated with late presentation of HIV using the new European consensus definition (CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³) and mortality.

Methods

Patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection at a UK clinic were recruited from January 1996 to May 2010. Factors associated with late presentation were assessed using logistic regression. Factors associated with mortality rates were analysed using Poisson regression.

Results

Of the 1536 included in the analysis, 86% were male and 10% were aged 50 years and older. Half the cohort (49%) had a CD4 cell count below 350 cells/mm³ at presentation (“late presentation”). The frequency of late presentation was highest in those aged 50 years or older and remained unchanged over time (64.3% in 1996-1998 and 65.4% in 2008-2010). In contrast, among those aged less than 50 years, the proportion with late presentation decreased over time (57.1% in 1996-1998 and 38.5% in 2008-2010). Other factors associated with late presentation were African ethnicity and being a male heterosexual.

The mortality rate was 15.47/1000 person-years (pyrs) (95%-CI: 13.00-18.41). When compared with younger adults, older individuals had a higher mortality, after adjusting for confounders (rate ratio (RR) = 2.87; 95%-CI: 1.88-4.40).

Conclusions

Older adults were more likely to present late and had a higher mortality. Initiatives to expand HIV testing in clinical and community setting should not neglect individuals aged over 50.

Eliminating the latent HIV reservoir by reactivation strategies: advancing to clinical trials

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has transformed HIV from a deadly to a chronic disease, but HIV patients are still burdened with excess morbidity and mortality, long-term toxicities from cART, stigmatization, and insufficient access to cART worldwide. Thus, a cure for HIV would have enormous impact on society as well as the individual. As the complexity and mechanisms of HIV persistence during therapy are being unraveled, new therapeutic targets for HIV eradication are discovered. Substances that activate HIV production in the latently infected cells have recently received much attention. By turning on expression of latent HIV proviruses, reactivation strategies could contribute to the eradication HIV infection. Compounds that are currently being or soon to be tested in clinical trials are emphasized. The results from these trials will provide important clues as to whether or not reactivating strategies could become significant components of a cure for HIV.

CD4, viral load response, and adherence among antiretroviral-naive breast-feeding women receiving triple antiretroviral prophylaxis for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Kisumu, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Health benefits and survival of an exclusively breast-fed infant is dependent on the mother's health; thus, the need for antiretroviral (ARV) intervention for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Achieving maternal health benefits from these regimens requires adherence to the treatments and close monitoring. We evaluated virologic, immunologic responses, and adherence among women receiving maternal triple ARV prophylaxis consisting of lamivudine/zidovudine and nevirapine or nelfinavir in the Kisumu Breastfeeding Study.

METHODS

We analyzed baseline demographic data, trends in CD4 count, and viral load (VL) at enrollment (32-34 weeks gestation), delivery, 14 and 24 weeks postpartum among 434 women who remained in the study at 24 weeks postpartum. Adherence rates were determined using pill counts reinforced by self-report and drug calendar. We dichotomized adherence as ≥95% versus <95%.

RESULTS

Among the 434 women, 84% (n = 366) had adherence ≥95%. The proportion of women with undetectable VL (<400 copies/mL) increased from 6% at baseline to 79%, and that of those with CD4 count <250 cells per microliter decreased from 23% (100) at baseline to 5% (22) at 24 weeks postpartum. In discrete-survival model, time to achieving VL suppression was associated with baseline VL <5.0 log copies per milliliter, parity ≥2, and use of nelfinavir- versus nevirapine-based ARV. Association between undetectable VL with duration of therapy (P < 0.0001) and adherence with suppression of VL (P = 0.001) was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

High baseline VL and short exposure to ARVs for PMTCT are risk factors for failing to achieve undetectable VL. These findings support the new WHO guidelines for early initiation of ARV prophylaxis for PMTCT for maximal reduction of maternal VL.

Balancing immunological benefits and cardiovascular risks of antiretroviral therapy: when is immediate treatment optimal?

We developed a mathematical model to identify the timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation that optimizes patient outcomes as a function of patient CD4 count, age, cardiac mortality risk, sex, and personal preferences. Our goal was to find the conditions that maximize patient quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in the context of our model. Under the assumption that ART confers disease progression and mortality benefits at any CD4 count, immediate treatment initiation yields the greatest remaining QALE for young patients under most circumstances. The timing of ART initiation depends on the magnitude of benefit from ART at high CD4 counts, the magnitude of increases in cardiac risk, and patients' preferences. If ART reduces HIV progression at high CD4 counts, immediate ART is preferable for most newly infected individuals <35 years even if ART doubles age- and sex-specific cardiac risk.

Antiviral agents and HIV prevention: controversies, conflicts, and consensus

Antiviral agents can be used to prevent HIV transmission before exposure as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), after exposure as postexposure prophylaxis, and as treatment of infected people for secondary prevention. Considerable research has shed new light on antiviral agents for PrEP and for prevention of secondary HIV transmission. While promising results have emerged from several PrEP trials, the challenges of poor adherence among HIV-negative clients and possible increase in sexual risk behaviors remain a concern. In addition, a broader pipeline of antiviral agents for PrEP that focuses on genital tract pharmacology and safety and resistance issues must be developed. Antiretroviral drugs have also been used to prevent HIV transmission from HIV-infected patients to their HIV-discordant sexual partners. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial demonstrated nearly complete prevention of HIV transmission by early treatment of infection, but the generalizability of the results to other risk groups - including intravenous drug users and MSM - has not been determined. Most importantly, the best strategy for use of antiretroviral agents to reduce the spread of HIV at either the individual level or the population level has not been developed, and remains the ultimate goal of this area of investigation.

Two patterns of cerebral metabolite abnormalities are detected on proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in HIV-infected subjects commencing antiretroviral therapy

INTRODUCTION

Cerebral function impairment remains problematic in subjects with chronic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection despite effective combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Using cerebral proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H MRS), we aimed to determine if abnormalities could be detected in neurologically asymptomatic HIV-infected subjects electively commencing cART.

METHODS

Therapy-naive, HIV-infected individuals and HIV-uninfected controls underwent (1)H MRS in several anatomical voxels including the mid-frontal grey matter (FGM) and right basal ganglia (RBG). Differences in cerebral metabolite ratios between groups and correlations between immune and virological status were assessed.

RESULTS

Forty-six subjects were recruited (26 HIV-infected and 20 control subjects). In the HIV-infected group, mean CD4+ count (SD, cells per microlitre) and plasma HIV RNA (SD, log10 copies per millilitre) were 192 (86) and 4.71 (0.64), respectively. Choline (Cho)/Creatine (Cr) and myoinositol (MI)/Cr ratios were significantly lower in the FGM in HIV-infected subjects compared to controls (0.67 (0.14) versus 0.88 (0.49), p = 0.036, and 0.94 (0.28) and 1.17 (0.26), p = 0.008, for Cho/Cr and MI/Cr, respectively) and Cho/Cr ratio associated with CD4+ lymphocyte count (p = 0.041). N-Acetyl-aspartate (NAA)/Cho ratio was significantly lower in the RBG in HIV-infected subjects compared to controls (2.27 (0.54) versus 2.63 (0.68), p = 0.002), and this was associated with greater plasma HIV RNA load (p = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

Two patterns of cerebral metabolite abnormalities were observed in HIV-infected subjects electively commencing cART. Greater inflammatory metabolite ratios (Cho/Cr and MI/Cr) associated with lower markers of peripheral immune markers (CD4+ lymphocyte count) in the FGM and lower neuronal metabolite ratios (NAA/Cho) associated with greater HIV viraemia in the RBG were present in HIV-infected subjects.

Considerations in the rationale, design and methods of the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study

BACKGROUND

Untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is characterized by progressive depletion of CD4+ T lymphocyte (CD4) count leading to the development of opportunistic diseases (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)), and more recent data suggest that HIV is also associated with an increased risk of serious non-AIDS (SNA) diseases including cardiovascular, renal, and liver diseases and non-AIDS-defining cancers. Although combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) has resulted in a substantial decrease in morbidity and mortality in persons with HIV infection, viral eradication is not feasible with currently available drugs. The optimal time to start ART for asymptomatic HIV infection is controversial and remains one of the key unanswered questions in the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals.

PURPOSE

In this article, we outline the rationale and methods of the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study, an ongoing multicenter international trial designed to assess the risks and benefits of initiating ART earlier than is currently practiced. We also describe some of the challenges encountered in the design and implementation of the study and how these challenges were addressed.

METHODS

A total of 4000 study participants who are HIV type 1 (HIV-1) infected, ART naïve with CD4 count > 500 cells/µL are to be randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to start ART immediately (early ART) or defer treatment until CD4 count is <350 cells/µL (deferred ART) and followed for a minimum of 3 years. The primary outcome is time to AIDS, SNA, or death. The study had a pilot phase to establish feasibility of accrual, which was set as the enrollment of at least 900 participants in the first year.

RESULTS

Challenges encountered in the design and implementation of the study included the limited amount of data on the risk of a major component of the primary endpoint (SNA) in the study population, changes in treatment guidelines when the pilot phase was well underway, and the complexities of conducting the trial in a geographically wide population with diverse regulatory requirements. With the successful completion of the pilot phase, more than 1000 participants from 100 sites in 23 countries have been enrolled. The study will expand to include 237 sites in 36 countries to reach the target accrual of 4000 participants.

CONCLUSIONS

START is addressing one of the most important questions in the clinical management of ART. The randomization provided a platform for the conduct of several substudies aimed at increasing our understanding of HIV disease and the effects of antiretroviral therapy beyond the primary question of the trial. The lessons learned from its design and implementation will hopefully be of use to future publicly funded international trials.

Incomplete immune recovery in HIV infection: mechanisms, relevance for clinical care, and possible solutions

Treatment of HIV-infected patients with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) usually results in diminished viral replication, increasing CD4+ cell counts, a reversal of most immunological disturbances, and a reduction in risk of morbidity and mortality. However, approximately 20% of all HIV-infected patients do not achieve optimal immune reconstitution despite suppression of viral replication. These patients are referred to as immunological nonresponders (INRs). INRs present with severely altered immunological functions, including malfunction and diminished production of cells within lymphopoetic tissue, perturbed frequencies of immune regulators such as regulatory T cells and Th17 cells, and increased immune activation, immunosenescence, and apoptosis. Importantly, INRs have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality compared to HIV-infected patients with an optimal immune reconstitution. Additional treatment to HAART that may improve immune reconstitution has been investigated, but results thus far have proved disappointing. The reason for immunological nonresponse is incompletely understood. This paper summarizes the known and unknown factors regarding the incomplete immune reconstitution in HIV infection, including mechanisms, relevance for clinical care, and possible solutions.

CD4-specific mortality rates among HIV-infected adults with high CD4 counts and no antiretroviral treatment in West Africa

BACKGROUND

CD4-specific rates of mortality in sub-Saharan African adults with high CD4 counts have rarely been estimated. This estimation is useful to the when to start antiretroviral treatment (ART) debate.

METHODS

We pooled data from National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis (ANRS)-funded research cohorts or associated partners in West Africa. All HIV-infected adults (≥18 years) with available follow-up time off ART were eligible. We used a joint model to estimate CD4 count evolution. We estimated CD4-specific rates of mortality, loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) and ART initiation by dividing the number of first event by the follow-up time off ART within each CD4 category.

RESULTS

Between 1996 and 2009, 2588 adults (80% women) from 5 cohorts in Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso were followed off ART during 6862 person-years. In the 201-350, 351-500, 501-650, and >650 cells per cubic millimeter CD4 categories, mortality rates were: 3.0, 1.5, 0.4, 0.2 per 100 person-years; LTFU rates: 6.0, 4.6, 6.1, 6.0 per 100 person-years; and ART initiation rates: 18.1, 2.7, 0.5, 0.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. All estimates varied across cohorts; mortality rates were higher when rates of LFTU and ART initiation were lower; LTFU rates were 2-40 times higher than mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Among untreated West African adults with high CD4 counts, mortality and LTFU rates were substantial. Even when data are collected under research conditions, informative censoring due to ART initiation and LTFU could lead to significantly underestimate mortality figures.

Emergence of minor drug-resistant HIV-1 variants after triple antiretroviral prophylaxis for prevention of vertical HIV-1 transmission

BACKGROUND

WHO-guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in resource-limited settings recommend complex maternal antiretroviral prophylaxis comprising antenatal zidovudine (AZT), nevirapine single-dose (NVP-SD) at labor onset and AZT/lamivudine (3TC) during labor and one week postpartum. Data on resistance development selected by this regimen is not available. We therefore analyzed the emergence of minor drug-resistant HIV-1 variants in Tanzanian women following complex prophylaxis.

METHOD

1395 pregnant women were tested for HIV-1 at Kyela District Hospital, Tanzania. 87/202 HIV-positive women started complex prophylaxis. Blood samples were collected before start of prophylaxis, at birth and 1-2, 4-6 and 12-16 weeks postpartum. Allele-specific real-time PCR assays specific for HIV-1 subtypes A, C and D were developed and applied on samples of mothers and their vertically infected infants to quantify key resistance mutations of AZT (K70R/T215Y/T215F), NVP (K103N/Y181C) and 3TC (M184V) at detection limits of <1%.

RESULTS

50/87 HIV-infected women having started complex prophylaxis were eligible for the study. All women took AZT with a median duration of 53 days (IQR 39-64); all women ingested NVP-SD, 86% took 3TC. HIV-1 resistance mutations were detected in 20/50 (40%) women, of which 70% displayed minority species. Variants with AZT-resistance mutations were found in 11/50 (22%), NVP-resistant variants in 9/50 (18%) and 3TC-resistant variants in 4/50 women (8%). Three women harbored resistant HIV-1 against more than one drug. 49/50 infants, including the seven vertically HIV-infected were breastfed, 3/7 infants exhibited drug-resistant virus.

CONCLUSION

Complex prophylaxis resulted in lower levels of NVP-selected resistance as compared to NVP-SD, but AZT-resistant HIV-1 emerged in a substantial proportion of women. Starting AZT in pregnancy week 14 instead of 28 as recommended by the current WHO-guidelines may further increase the frequency of AZT-resistance mutations. Given its impact on HIV-transmission rate and drug-resistance development, HAART for all HIV-positive pregnant women should be considered.

AIDS and non-AIDS morbidity and mortality across the spectrum of CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected adults before starting antiretroviral therapy in Cote d'Ivoire

BACKGROUND

In Western Europe, North America, and Australia, large cohort collaborations have been able to estimate the short-term CD4 cell count-specific risk of AIDS or death in untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults with high CD4 cell counts. In sub-Saharan Africa, these CD4 cell count-specific estimates are scarce.

METHODS

From 1996 through 2006, we followed up 2 research cohorts of HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire. This included follow-up off antiretroviral therapy (ART) across the entire spectrum of CD4 cell counts before the ART era, and only in patients with CD4 cell counts >200  cells/μL once ART became available. Data were censored at ART initiation. We modeled the CD4 cell count decrease using an adjusted linear mixed model. CD4 cell count-specific rates of events were obtained by dividing the number of first events occurring in a given CD4 cell count stratum by the time spent in that stratum.

RESULTS

Eight hundred sixty patients were followed off ART over 2789 person-years (PY). In the ≥650, 500-649, 350-499, 200-349, 100-199, 50-99, and 0-49  cells/μL CD4 cell count strata, the rates of AIDS or death were 0.9, 1.7, 3.7, 10.4, 30.9, 60.8, and 99.9 events per 100 PY, respectively. In patients with CD4 cell counts ≥200 CD4  cells/μL, the most frequent AIDS-defining disease was tuberculosis (decreasing from 4.0 to 0.6 events per 100 PY for 200-349 and ≥650 cells/μL, respectively), and the most frequent HIV non-AIDS severe diseases were visceral bacterial diseases (decreasing from 9.1 to 3.6 events per 100 PY).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of AIDS or death, tuberculosis, and invasive bacterial diseases are substantial in patients with CD4 cell counts ≥200 cells/μL. Tuberculosis and bacterial diseases should be the most important outcomes in future trials of early ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

Considerations for Endpoint Selection When Designing HIV Clinical Trials

Selecting the primary endpoint is one of the most important decisions in designing clinical trials. Many HIV trials are powered for surrogate markers, often virologic suppression. Among 49 recently published Phase 3 or higher randomized HIV trials only 14% were powered for clinical outcomes such as the progression to AIDS, death, or serious non-AIDS diseases. We provide two examples where interventions modified the targeted surrogate markers but failed to provide clinical benefit. We review the use of surrogate and clinical endpoints, discuss the composition of clinical endpoints, and the need for endpoint verification. In HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/mm(3) serious non-AIDS conditions such as cardiovascular, renal, hepatic diseases and cancer contribute substantially to morbidity and mortality. In this population clinical endpoint trials should be powered for non-AIDS morbidity along with AIDS.

All-cause mortality in treated HIV-infected adults with CD4 ≥500/mm3 compared with the general population: evidence from a large European observational cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND

Using data from a large European collaborative study, we aimed to identify the circumstances in which treated HIV-infected individuals will experience similar mortality rates to those of the general population.

METHODS

Adults were eligible if they initiated combination anti-retroviral treatment (cART) between 1998 and 2008 and had one prior CD4 measurement within 6 months. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and excess mortality rates compared with the general population were estimated using Poisson regression. Periods of follow-up were classified according to the current CD4 count.

RESULTS

Of the 80 642 individuals, 70% were men, 16% were injecting drug users (IDUs), the median age was 37 years, median CD4 count 225/mm(3) at cART initiation and median follow-up was 3.5 years. The overall mortality rate was 1.2/100 person-years (PY) (men: 1.3, women: 0.9), 4.2 times as high as that in the general population (SMR for men: 3.8, for women: 7.4). Among 35 316 individuals with a CD4 count ≥500/mm(3), the mortality rate was 0.37/100 PY (SMR 1.5); mortality rates were similar to those of the general population in non-IDU men [SMR 0.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.7-1.3] and, after 3 years, in women (SMR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.7). Mortality rates in IDUs remained elevated, though a trend to decrease with longer durations with high CD4 count was seen. A prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality patterns in most non-IDU HIV-infected individuals with high CD4 counts on cART are similar to those in the general population. The persistent role of a prior AIDS diagnosis underlines the importance of early diagnosis of HIV infection.

Prevalence and predictors of kaposi sarcoma herpes virus seropositivity: a cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is the most common AIDS-defining tumour in HIV-infected individuals in Africa. Kaposi sarcoma herpes virus (KSHV) infection precedes development of KS. KSHV co-infection may be associated with worse outcomes in HIV disease and elevated KSHV viral load may be an early marker for advanced HIV disease among untreated patients. We examined the prevalence of KSHV among adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) and compared immunological, demographic and clinical factors between patients seropositive and seronegative for KSHV.

Results

We analyzed cross-sectional data collected from 404 HIV-infected treatment-naïve adults initiating ART at the Themba Lethu Clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa between November 2008 and March 2009. Subjects were screened at ART initiation for antibodies to KSHV lytic K8.1 and latent Orf73 antigens. Seropositivity to KSHV was defined as positive to either lytic KSHV K8.1 or latent KSHV Orf73 antibodies. KSHV viremia was determined by quantitative PCR and CD3, 4 and 8 lymphocyte counts were determined with flow cytometry. Of the 404 participants, 193 (48%) tested positive for KSHV at ART initiation; with 76 (39%) reactive to lytic K8.1, 35 (18%) to latent Orf73 and 82 (42%) to both. One individual presented with clinical KS at ART initiation. The KSHV infected group was similar to those without KSHV in terms of age, race, gender, ethnicity, smoking and alcohol use. KSHV infected individuals presented with slightly higher median CD3 (817 vs. 726 cells/mm³) and CD4 (90 vs. 80 cells/mm³) counts than KSHV negative subjects. We found no associations between KSHV seropositivity and body mass index, tuberculosis status, WHO stage, HIV RNA levels, full blood count or liver function tests at initiation. Those with detectable KSHV viremia (n = 19), however, appeared to present with signs of more advanced HIV disease including anemia and WHO stage 3 or 4 defining conditions compared to those in whom the virus was undetectable.

Conclusions

We demonstrate a high prevalence of KSHV among HIV-infected adults initiating ART in a large urban public-sector HIV clinic. KSHV viremia but not KSHV seropositivity may be associated with markers of advanced HIV disease.

When to initiate combined antiretroviral therapy to reduce mortality and AIDS-defining illness in HIV-infected persons in developed countries: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Most clinical guidelines recommend that AIDS-free, HIV-infected persons with CD4 cell counts below 0.350 × 10(9) cells/L initiate combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), but the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated remains a matter of debate.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal CD4 cell count at which cART should be initiated.

DESIGN

Prospective observational data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and dynamic marginal structural models were used to compare cART initiation strategies for CD4 thresholds between 0.200 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

SETTING

HIV clinics in Europe and the Veterans Health Administration system in the United States.

PATIENTS

20, 971 HIV-infected, therapy-naive persons with baseline CD4 cell counts at or above 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L and no previous AIDS-defining illnesses, of whom 8392 had a CD4 cell count that decreased into the range of 0.200 to 0.499 × 10(9) cells/L and were included in the analysis.

MEASUREMENTS

Hazard ratios and survival proportions for all-cause mortality and a combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death.

RESULTS

Compared with initiating cART at the CD4 cell count threshold of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L, the mortality hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.22) for the 0.350 threshold and 1.20 (CI, 0.97 to 1.48) for the 0.200 threshold. The corresponding hazard ratios were 1.38 (CI, 1.23 to 1.56) and 1.90 (CI, 1.67 to 2.15), respectively, for the combined end point of AIDS-defining illness or death.

LIMITATIONS

CD4 cell count at cART initiation was not randomized. Residual confounding may exist.

CONCLUSION

Initiation of cART at a threshold CD4 count of 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L increases AIDS-free survival. However, mortality did not vary substantially with the use of CD4 thresholds between 0.300 and 0.500 × 10(9) cells/L.

Late presentation of HIV infection: a consensus definition

OBJECTIVES

Across Europe, almost a third of individuals infected with HIV do not enter health care until late in the course of their infection. Surveillance to identify the extent to which late presentation occurs remains inadequate across Europe and is further complicated by the lack of a common clinical definition of late presentation. The objective of this article is to present a consensus definition of late presentation of HIV infection.

METHODS

Over the past year, two initiatives have moved towards a harmonized definition. In spring 2009, they joined efforts to identify a common definition of what is meant by a 'late-presenting' patient.

RESULTS

Two definitions were agreed upon, as follows. Late presentation: persons presenting for care with a CD4 count below 350 cells/μL or presenting with an AIDS-defining event, regardless of the CD4 cell count. Presentation with advanced HIV disease: persons presenting for care with a CD4 count below 200 cells/μL or presenting with an AIDS-defining event, regardless of the CD4 cell count.

CONCLUSION

The European Late Presenter Consensus working group believe it would be beneficial if all national health agencies, institutions, and researchers were able to implement this definition (either on its own or alongside their own preferred definition) when reporting surveillance or research data relating to late presentation of HIV infection.

Impact of earlier HAART initiation on the immune status and clinical course of treated patients on the basis of cohort data of the German Competence Network for HIV/AIDS

PURPOSE

Hitherto, studies on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation have shown partly inconsistent results. Our study investigated the clinical course and course of immune status after HAART initiation at CD4-cell-count/μl of treated patients between 250 and 349 (group 1), compared to 350-449 (group 2), on the basis of the cohort of the Competence Network for HIV/AIDS (KompNet cohort).

METHODS

Patients had to be HAART-naïve. Medication had to start at the earliest in 1996, being at least triple combination therapy. The primary endpoints of death, first AIDS-defining illness and first drop of CD4-cell-count/μl below 200 were evaluated as censored event times between the initiation of HAART (t (0)) and the date of the first event/date of last observation. Probabilities of event-free intervals since t (0) were calculated by Kaplan-Meier estimation, compared by logrank tests. The results were adjusted for confounders using Cox regression. Additionally, incidences were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 822 patients met the inclusion criteria (group 1: 526, group 2: 296), covering 4,133 patient years (py) overall. In group 1, 0.64 death cases/100 py were found, with the corresponding vale being 0.17 in group 2. In group 1, 1.38 AIDS-defining events/100 py occurred, whereas it was 0.78 in group 2. In group 1, 2.64 events of first drop of CD4-cell-count/μl below 200 occurred per 100 py, compared to 0.77 in group 2. Kaplan-Meier estimations showed borderline significant differences regarding death (p = 0.063), no differences regarding first AIDS-defining illness (p = 0.148) and distinct differences regarding the first drop of CD4-cell-count/μl below 200 (p = 0.0004).

CONCLUSIONS

The results gave a strong hint for a therapy initiation at higher CD4-cell-count/μl regarding the outcome of death in treated patients. A distinct benefit was shown regarding the first decline of CD4-cell-count/μl below 200.

Serious fatal and nonfatal non-AIDS-defining illnesses in Europe

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the incidence and risk factors for serious non-AIDS-defining events.

METHODS

The incidence of non-AIDS events (malignancies, end-stage renal disease, liver failure, pancreatitis, cardiovascular disease), and AIDS after January 1, 2001, was calculated; Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with non-AIDS and AIDS.

RESULTS

Among 12,844 patients, 1058 were diagnosed with a non-AIDS event [incidence 1.77 per 100 person-years of follow-up; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66 to 1.87]; 462 patients (43.7%) died. The incidence of AIDS (1025 diagnoses; 339 deaths, 33.1%) was 1.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up (1.61 to 1.83). After adjustment, older age [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.71 per 10 years older, 95% CI: 1.60 to 1.83], diabetes (IRR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.82) and hypertension (IRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.43 to 1.87) were associated with non-AIDS events. Compared with patients without an event, there was a 4-fold increased risk of death after an AIDS event (relative hazard: 4.14; 95% CI 3.47 to 4.94) and almost a 7-fold increased risk of death after a non-AIDS event (relative hazard: 6.72; 95% CI: 5.61 to 8.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Non-AIDS events were common in the combination antiretroviral therapy era and associated with considerably mortality. Evidence on the impact of modifying immunodeficiency and lifestyle-related factors on the risk of non-AIDS events in HIV-infected persons is an important but unmet research need.

Death rates in HIV-positive antiretroviral-naive patients with CD4 count greater than 350 cells per microL in Europe and North America: a pooled cohort observational study

BACKGROUND

Whether people living with HIV who have not received antiretroviral therapy (ART) and have high CD4 cell counts have higher mortality than the general population is unknown. We aimed to examine this by analysis of pooled data from industrialised countries.

METHODS

We merged data on demographics, CD4 cell counts, viral-load measurements, hepatitis C co-infection status, smoking status, date of death, and whether death was AIDS-related or not from 23 European and North American cohorts. We calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) standardised by age, sex, and year, stratifying by risk group. Data were included for patients aged 20-59 years who had at least one CD4 count greater than 350 cells per microL while ART naive. All pre-ART CD4 counts greater than 350 cells per microL from January, 1990, to December, 2004, were included. We investigated mortality for four risk groups--men who have sex with men, heterosexual people, injecting drug users, and those at other or unknown risk. The association between CD4 cell count and death rate was investigated by use of Poisson regression methods.

FINDINGS

Data were analysed for 40,830 patients contributing 80,682 person-years of follow-up. Of 419 deaths, 401 were used in the SMR analysis: 100 men who have sex with men (SMR 1.30, 95% CI 1.06-1.58); 68 heterosexual people (2.94, 2.28-3.73); 203 injecting drug users (9.37, 8.13-10.75); and 30 in the other or unknown risk category (4.57, 3.09-6.53). Compared with CD4 counts of 350-499 cells per microL, death rate was lower in patients with counts of 500-699 cells per microL (adjusted rate ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.95) and counts of 700 cells per microL (0.66, 0.52-0.85).

INTERPRETATION

In HIV-infected ART-naive patients with high CD4 cell counts, death rates were raised compared with the general population. In men who have sex with men this was modest, suggesting that a substantial proportion of the increased risk in other groups is due to confounding by other factors. Even though the increased risk is small, new studies of potential benefits of ART in this group are merited.

FUNDING

European Commission, FP6. European AIDS Treatment Network (NEAT). Project number LSHP-CT-2006-037570.

PENTA 2009 guidelines for the use of antiretroviral therapy in paediatric HIV-1 infection

PENTA Guidelines aim to provide practical recommendations for treating children with HIV infection in Europe. Changes to guidance since 2004 have been informed by new evidence and by expectations of better outcomes following the ongoing success of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Participation in PENTA trials of simplifying treatment is encouraged. The main changes are in the following sections: 'When to start ART': Treatment is recommended for all infants, and at higher CD4 cell counts and percentages in older children, in line with changes to adult guidelines. The number of age bands has been reduced to simplify and harmonize with other paediatric guidelines. Greater emphasis is placed on CD4 cell count in children over 5 years, and guidance is provided where CD4% and CD4 criteria differ. 'What to start with': A three-drug regimen of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) with either a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) remains the first choice combination. Lamivudine and abacavir are the NRTI backbone of choice for most children, based on long-term follow-up in the PENTA 5 trial. Stavudine is no longer recommended. Whether to start with an NNRTI or PI remains unclear, but PENPACT 1 trial results in 2009 may help to inform this. All PIs should be ritonavir boosted. Recommendations on use of resistance testing, therapeutic drug monitoring and HLA testing draw from data in adults and from European paediatric cohort studies. Recently updated US and WHO paediatric guidelines provide more detailed review of the evidence base. Differences between guidelines are highlighted and explained.

Predicting the magnitude of short-term CD4+ T-cell recovery in HIV-infected patients during first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND

The extent of short-term CD4(+) T-cell recovery in patients tolerating first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and attaining undetectable HIV RNA levels is inadequately defined.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed patients in four Italian cohorts who started HAART between January 1996 and September 2006. All patients had known HCV coinfection status, did not modify the regimen for 6 months and had <50 HIV RNA copies/ml at the end of the sixth month.

RESULTS

The analysis involved 1,488 patients (1,096 males, 73.7%) with a median age of 43 years (interquartile range [IQR] 39-49); 435 (29.2%) were positive for HCV, 71 (4.8%) were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and 76 (5.1%) had experienced a previous AIDS-defining event. At baseline, patient CD4(+) T-cell counts were 226 cells/microl (IQR 99-332), CD4(+) T-cell percentages were 14.7% (IQR 8.7-21.2) and HIV RNA levels were 4.91 log(10) copies/ml (IQR 4.38-5.34). Overall, 24-week CD4(+) T-cell recovery was 144 cells/microl (IQR 70-240). At multivariable analysis, T-cell recovery was positively related to the use of a boosted protease inhibitor (P<0.0001) or thymidine analogues (P<0.0001), baseline HIV RNA levels (P<0.0001), the baseline percentage of CD4(+) T-cells (P<0.0001) and the absence of HCV coinfection (P=0.006). Age, gender, baseline CD4(+)/CD8(+) T-cell ratio and a history of AIDS-defining events had no independent effect on CD4(+) T-cell recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

Among HIV-infected patients tolerating first-line HAART and with undetectable HIV RNA after 6 months, CD4(+) T-cell recovery is significantly greater in those without HCV coinfection, with a high baseline viral load, a high baseline percentage of CD4(+) T-cells and in those treated with a boosted protease inhibitor.

Italian consensus statement on paediatric HIV infection

The objective of this document is to identify and reinforce current recommendations concerning the management of HIV infection in infants and children in the context of good resource availability. All recommendations were graded according to the strength and quality of the evidence and were voted on by the 57 participants attending the first Italian Consensus on Paediatric HIV, held in Siracusa in 2008. Paediatricians and HIV/AIDS care specialists were requested to agree on different statements summarizing key issues in the management of paediatric HIV. The comprehensive approach on preventing mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) has clearly reduced the number of children acquiring the infection in Italy. Although further reduction of MTCT should be attempted, efforts to personalize intervention to specific cases are now required in order to optimise the treatment and care of HIV-infected children. The prompt initiation of treatment and careful selection of first-line regimen, taking into consideration potency and tolerance, remain central. In addition, opportunistic infection prevention, adherence to treatment, and long-term psychosocial consequences are becoming increasingly relevant in the era of effective antiretroviral combination therapies (ART). The increasing proportion of infected children achieving adulthood highlights the need for multidisciplinary strategies to facilitate transition to adult care and maintain strategies specific to perinatally acquired HIV infection.

The future of antiretroviral therapy: challenges and needs

The introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has substantially modified the natural history of HIV infection. At the beginning of the cART era the objective was focused on HIV-1-associated mortality and morbidity, but as this objective was accomplished other issues emerged, including toxicity, resistance and compliance with treatment. Moreover, the participation of other disease mechanisms, such as proinflammatory activity, in the so-called non-AIDS events is becoming increasingly important. To overcome these issues, therapeutic options have dramatically expanded, which has made the management of HIV-1-infected patients increasingly complex. The intense changes seen raise the question of what will be the future of HIV infection and its treatment. A projection into the future may help to reflect on current limitations, needs and research priorities, to optimize patient care. To debate on this topic a group of 38 experts has initiated The HIV 2020 Project, with the aim of reflecting on the future of HIV infection and identifying the needs that should be the attention of research in different areas. This document summarizes the group's conclusions on the future of antiretroviral treatment, presented as 20 relevant questions. Each question includes the current status of the topic and our vision for the future.

Antiretroviral therapy in the clinic

Antiretroviral therapy in the developed world has resulted in substantial reductions in HIV-associated morbidity and mortality, changing an HIV diagnosis from a likely death sentence into a manageable chronic infection (F. J. Palella, Jr., K. M. Delaney, A. C. Moorman, M. O. Loveless, J. Fuhrer, G. A. Satten, D. J. Aschman, and S. D. Holmberg, N. Engl. J. Med. 338:853-860, 1998). Several million years of life have been saved by effective anti-HIV treatment, although these successes should not obscure the magnitude of the ongoing worldwide HIV epidemic (R. P. Walensky, A. D. Paltiel, E. Losina, L. M. Mercincavage, B. R. Schackman, P. E. Sax, M. C. Weinstein, and K. A. Freedberg, J. Infect. Dis. 194:11-19, 2006). Readers of the Journal of Virology are doubtless aware of the fundamental advances in retrovirology that have made possible the development of potent inhibitors of HIV replication. In this review, we focus on the issues surrounding how these drugs and drug regimens are actually used in clinical settings. Their proper use requires detailed knowledge of the natural history of HIV infection, the pharmacology of the individual drugs, the complexities of drug-drug interactions, and the use of sophisticated molecular tests for monitoring of viral load, immunologic response, and drug resistance.

Copy-years viremia as a measure of cumulative human immunodeficiency virus viral burden

Plasma human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) viral load is a valuable tool for HIV research and clinical care but is often used in a noncumulative manner. The authors developed copy-years viremia as a measure of cumulative plasma HIV-1 viral load exposure among 297 HIV seroconverters from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (1984-1996). Men were followed from seroconversion to incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), death, or the beginning of the combination antiretroviral therapy era (January 1, 1996); the median duration of follow-up was 4.6 years (interquartile range (IQR), 2.7-6.5). The median viral load and level of copy-years viremia over 2,281 semiannual follow-up assessments were 29,628 copies/mL (IQR, 8,547-80,210) and 63,659 copies x years/mL (IQR, 15,935-180,341). A total of 127 men developed AIDS or died, and 170 survived AIDS-free and were censored on January 1, 1996, or lost to follow-up. Rank correlations between copy-years viremia and other measures of viral load were 0.56-0.87. Each log(10) increase in copy-years viremia was associated with a 1.70-fold increased hazard (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 3.07) of AIDS or death, independently of infection duration, age, race, CD4 cell count, set-point, peak viral load, or most recent viral load. Copy-years viremia, a novel measure of cumulative viral burden, may provide prognostic information beyond traditional single measures of viremia.

Immunologic and virologic events in early HIV infection predict subsequent rate of progression

BACKGROUND

Variability in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression cannot be fully predicted by CD4(+) T cell counts or viral load (VL). Because central memory T (T(CM)) cells play a critical role in the pathogenesis of simian immunodeficiency virus disease, we hypothesized that quantifying these cells in early HIV infection could provide prognostic information.

METHODS

We measured expression of CD45RO, chemokine (C-C motif) receptor (CCR) 5, CCR7, CD27, and CD28 to enumerate naive and memory subsets in samples from recently infected individuals. We also quantified proliferation, CD127 expression, and cell-associated VL. Disease progression was compared across subgroups defined by these measurements, using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Four hundred sixty-six subjects contributed 101 events. The proportion or absolute count of T(CM) cells did not correlate with disease progression, defined as the time to AIDS or death. However, significant associations were observed for proliferation within CD4(+) or CD8(+) T cells, loss of naive or CD127(+) memory CD8(+) T cells, and CD4(+) T cell-associated VL.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that the extent of the immunopathogenesis established early in HIV infection predicts the course of future disease. Because antiretroviral drug treatment reverses such defects in part, our study provides mechanistic clues to why early use of antiretrovirals may prove beneficial.

When and why to start antiretroviral therapy?

The question about when to start antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected patients has been debated since the discovery of the first antiretroviral agent (zidovudine) back in 1986 and has been fuelled by the introduction of highly active combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) 10 years later in 1996. The dramatic improvement in the mortality rate associated with cART supported the principle of 'hitting early and hard', but the initial enthusiasm was quickly tempered by the realization of the inconveniences and the short- to mid-term treatment-related toxicities, including lipoatrophy. In 2009, cART can be very simple and generally well tolerated. All patients with a CD4+ T cell count of <350 cells/mm(3) should receive cART. Moreover, several cohort studies have convincingly demonstrated a significant reduction of AIDS- and non-AIDS-related events when cART is initiated at >350 CD4+ T lymphocytes/mm(3), and even at >500 CD4+ T lymphocytes/mm(3). Also, cART may be considered when there are associated co-morbidities, such as hepatitis C. In addition to individual benefits, an undetectable viral load in response to cART is associated with a substantial reduction in the likelihood of HIV transmission. This can benefit seronegative sexual partners and can potentially diminish the number of new infections, especially if those infected persons unaware of their situation can be identified and advised to initiate cART. Willingness to be treated and to adhere to the prescribed medication still remains the key to success.