Alcohol and drug use severity are independently associated with antiretroviral adherence in the current treatment era

Substance use in people with HIV (PWH) negatively impacts antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence. However, less is known about this in the current treatment era and the impact of specific substances or severity of substance use. We examined the associations of alcohol, marijuana, and illicit drug use (methamphetamine/crystal, cocaine/crack, illicit opioids/heroin) and their severity of use with adherence using multivariable linear regression in adult PWH in care between 2016 and 2020 at 8 sites across the US. PWH completed assessments of alcohol use severity (AUDIT-C), drug use severity (modified ASSIST), and ART adherence (visual analogue scale). Among 9400 PWH, 16% reported current hazardous alcohol use, 31% current marijuana use, and 15% current use of ≥1 illicit drugs. In multivariable analysis, current methamphetamine/crystal use, particularly common among men who had sex with men, was associated with 10.1% lower mean ART adherence (p < 0.001) and 2.6% lower adherence per 5-point higher severity of use (ASSIST score) (p < 0.001). Current and more severe use of alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs were also associated with lower adherence in a dose-dependent manner. In the current HIV treatment era, individualized substance use treatment, especially for methamphetamine/crystal, and ART adherence should be prioritized.

The Association of HIV Control and Immunosuppression With Risk of Non-AIDS-Defining Cancer Risk Among Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV (PWH) are experiencing an increased prevalence of non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). Our study investigated the association of immunosuppression and HIV control with NADCs among PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States.

METHODS

Among patients across 8 clinical cohorts on ART between 1996 and 2016, we assessed immune function and HIV control using 3 parameterizations of CD4 count and HIV-RNA viral load (VL): (1) CD4 or VL at ART initiation; (2) change in CD4 or VL after ART initiation; and (3) proportion of follow-up time at CD4 >500 cells/µL or VL <50 copies/mL. Cox models were used to ascertain the association of these measures with risk of a viral NADC or nonviral NADC.

RESULTS

Among 29,568 patients on ART, there were 410 nonviral NADCs and 213 viral NADCs. PWH with a CD4 <200 cells/µL at ART initiation had an 80% elevated risk for developing a viral NADC. Each increase of 100 cells/µL in CD4 after ART initiation decreased risk by 14%. For viral and nonviral NADCs, 10% more follow-up time spent with a CD4 >500 cells/µL was associated with decreased risk [viral, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 0.82; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.78 to 0.86; nonviral, aHR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.86 to 91], even after accounting for CD4 at ART initiation. When examining HIV control only, 10% more time with VL <50 copies/mL was significantly associated with decreased viral (aHR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.82 to 0.89) and nonviral NADC risk (aHR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that even for PWH on ART therapy, maintaining HIV control is associated with lower risk of both viral and nonviral NADCs.

Polygenic risk scores point toward potential genetic mechanisms of type 2 myocardial infarction in people with HIV

BACKGROUND

People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PWH) are at higher risk of myocardial infarction (MI) than those without HIV. About half of MIs in PWH are type 2 (T2MI), resulting from mismatch between myocardial oxygen supply and demand, in contrast to type 1 MI (T1MI), which is due to primary plaque rupture or coronary thrombosis. Despite worse survival and rising incidence in the general population, evidence-based treatment recommendations for T2MI are lacking. We used polygenic risk scores (PRS) to explore genetic mechanisms of T2MI compared to T1MI in PWH.

METHODS

We derived 115 PRS for MI-related traits in 9541 PWH enrolled in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort with adjudicated T1MI and T2MI. We applied multivariate logistic regression analyses to determine the association with T1MI and T2MI. Based on initial findings, we performed gene set enrichment analysis of the top variants composing PRS associated with T2MI.

RESULTS

We found that T1MI was strongly associated with PRS for cardiovascular disease, lipid profiles, and metabolic traits. In contrast, PRS for alcohol dependence and cholecystitis, significantly enriched in energy metabolism pathways, were predictive of T2MI risk. The association remained after the adjustment for actual alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate distinct genetic traits associated with T1MI and T2MI among PWH further highlighting their etiological differences and supporting the role of energy regulation in T2MI pathogenesis.

Factors Associated With Severity of COVID-19 Disease in a Multicenter Cohort of People With HIV in the United States, March-December 2020

BACKGROUND

Understanding the spectrum of COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) is critical to provide clinical guidance and risk reduction strategies.

SETTING

Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinic System, a US multisite clinical cohort of PWH in care.

METHODS

We identified COVID-19 cases and severity (hospitalization, intensive care, and death) in a large, diverse HIV cohort during March 1, 2020-December 31, 2020. We determined predictors and relative risks of hospitalization among PWH with COVID-19, adjusted for disease risk scores.

RESULTS

Of 16,056 PWH in care, 649 were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and December 2020. Case fatality was 2%; 106 (16.3%) were hospitalized, and 12 died. PWH with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 [aRR 2.68; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.93 to 3.71; P < 0.001] or lowest recorded CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 (aRR 1.67; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.36; P < 0.005) had greater risks of hospitalization. HIV viral load and antiretroviral therapy status were not associated with hospitalization, although most of the PWH were suppressed (86%). Black PWH were 51% more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with other racial/ethnic groups (aRR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.19; P = 0.03). Chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and increased cardiovascular and hepatic fibrosis risk scores were associated with higher hospitalization risk. PWH who were older, not on antiretroviral therapy, and with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 , diabetes, and chronic kidney disease were overrepresented among PWH who required intubation or died.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH with CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 , and a history of CD4 count <200 cells/mm 3 , have a clear excess risk of severe COVID-19, accounting for comorbidities associated with severe outcomes. PWH with these risk factors should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination and early treatment and monitored closely for worsening illness.

CD4/CD8 Ratio and Cancer Risk Among Adults With HIV

BACKGROUND

Independent of CD4 cell count, a low CD4/CD8 ratio in people with HIV (PWH) is associated with deleterious immune senescence, activation, and inflammation, which may contribute to carcinogenesis and excess cancer risk. We examined whether low CD4/CD8 ratios predicted cancer among PWH in the United States and Canada.

METHODS

We examined all cancer-free PWH with 1 or more CD4/CD8 values from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design observational cohorts with validated cancer diagnoses between 1998 and 2016. We evaluated the association between time-lagged CD4/CD8 ratio and risk of specific cancers in multivariable, time-updated Cox proportional hazard models using restricted cubic spines. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, hepatitis C virus, and time-updated CD4 cell count, HIV RNA, and history of AIDS-defining illness.

RESULTS

Among 83 893 PWH, there were 5628 incident cancers, including lung cancer (n = 755), Kaposi sarcoma (n = 501), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 497), and anal cancer (n = 439). The median age at cohort entry was 43 years. The overall median 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 ratio was 0.52 (interquartile range = 0.30-0.82). Compared with a 6-month lagged CD4/CD8 of 0.80, a CD4/CD8 of 0.30 was associated with increased risk of any incident cancer (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.24 [95% confidence interval = 1.14 to 1.35]). The CD4/CD8 ratio was also inversely associated with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Kaposi sarcoma, lung cancer, anal cancer, and colorectal cancer in adjusted analyses (all 2-sided P < .05). Results were similar using 12-, 18-, and 24-month lagged CD4/CD8 values.

CONCLUSIONS

A low CD4/CD8 ratio up to 24 months before cancer diagnosis was independently associated with increased cancer risk in PWH and may serve as a clinical biomarker.

Racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 disease incidence independent of comorbidities, among people with HIV in the US

OBJECTIVES

To define the incidence of clinically-detected COVID-19 in people with HIV (PWH) in the US and evaluate how racial and ethnic disparities, comorbidities, and HIV-related factors contribute to risk of COVID-19.

DESIGN

Observational study within the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort in 7 cities during 2020.

METHODS

We calculated cumulative incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnosis among PWH in routine care by key characteristics including race/ethnicity, current and lowest CD4 count, and geographic area. We evaluated risk factors for COVID-19 among PWH using relative risk regression models adjusted with disease risk scores.

RESULTS

Among 16,056 PWH in care, of whom 44.5% were Black, 12.5% were Hispanic, with a median age of 52 years (IQR 40-59), 18% had a current CD4 count < 350, including 7% < 200; 95.5% were on antiretroviral therapy, and 85.6% were virologically suppressed. Overall in 2020, 649 PWH were diagnosed with COVID-19 for a rate of 4.94 cases per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 2.4-fold and 1.7-fold higher in Hispanic and Black PWH respectively, than non-Hispanic White PWH. In adjusted analyses, factors associated with COVID-19 included female sex, Hispanic or Black identity, lowest historical CD4 count <350 (proxy for CD4 nadir), current low CD4/CD8 ratio, diabetes, and obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the presence of structural racial inequities above and beyond medical comorbidities increased the risk of COVID-19 among PWHPWH with immune exhaustion as evidenced by lowest historical CD4 or current low CD4:CD8 ratio had greater risk of COVID-19.

Factors associated with severity of COVID-19 disease in a multicenter cohort of people with HIV in the United States, March-December 2020

BACKGROUND

Understanding the spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease in people with HIV (PWH) is critical to provide clinical guidance and implement risk-reduction strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize COVID-19 in PWH in the United States and identify predictors of disease severity.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Geographically diverse clinical sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS).

PARTICIPANTS

Adults receiving HIV care through December 31, 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

COVID-19 cases and severity (hospitalization, intensive care, death).

RESULTS

Of 16,056 PWH in care, 649 were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March-December 2020. Case fatality was 2%; 106 (16.3%) were hospitalized and 12 died. PWH with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm ³ (aRR 2.68; 95%CI 1.93-3.71; P<.001) or lowest recorded CD4 count <200 (aRR 1.67; 95%CI 1.18-2.36; P<.005) had greater risk of hospitalization. HIV viral load suppression and antiretroviral therapy (ART) status were not associated with hospitalization, although the majority of PWH were suppressed (86%). Black PWH were 51% more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared to other racial/ethnic groups (aRR 1.51; 95%CI 1.04-2.19, P=.03). Chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and increased cardiovascular and hepatic fibrosis risk scores were associated with higher risk of hospitalization. PWH who were older, not on ART, with current CD4 <350, diabetes, and CKD were overrepresented amongst PWH who required intubation or died.

LIMITATIONS

Unable to compare directly to persons without HIV; underestimate of total COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH with CD4 <350 cells/mm ³ , low CD4/CD8 ratio, and history of CD4 <200, have a clear excess risk of severe COVID-19, after accounting for comorbidities also associated with severe outcomes. PWH with these risk factors should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination, early treatment, and monitored closely for worsening illness.

Correlates of psychological intimate partner violence with HIV care outcomes on patients in HIV care

Background

Among people living with HIV (PLWH), physical intimate partner violence (IPV) is associated with poor virologic, psychiatric, and behavioral outcomes. We examined non-physical, psychological intimate partner violence (psy-IPV) and HIV care outcomes using data from two U.S. consortia.

Methods

We conducted multivariable analyses with robust standard errors to compare patients indicating/not indicating psy-IPV.

Results

Among PLWH (n = 5950), 9.5% indicated psy-IPV; these individuals were younger (− 3; 95% CI [− 2,-4], p-value < 0.001), less likely to be on antiretroviral treatment (ART) (0.73 [0.55,0.97], p = 0.03), less adherent to ART (− 4.2 [− 5.9,-2.4], p < 0.001), had higher odds of detectable viral load (1.43 [1.15,1.78], p = 0.001) and depression (2.63 [2.18,3.18], p < 0.001), and greater use of methamphetamines/crystal [2.98 (2.30,3.87),p < 0.001], cocaine/crack [1.57 (1.24,1.99),p < 0.001], illicit opioids [1.56 (1.13,2.16),p = 0.007], and marijuana [1.40 (1.15,1.70), p < 0.001].

Conclusion

Psychological IPV, even in the absence of physical or sexual IPV, appears to be associated with HIV care outcomes and should be included in IPV measures integrated into routine HIV care.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11854-x.

Transportability From Randomized Trials to Clinical Care: On Initial HIV Treatment With Efavirenz and Suicidal Thoughts or Behaviors

In an analysis of randomized trials, use of efavirenz for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was associated with increased suicidal thoughts/behaviors. However, analyses of observational data have found no evidence of increased risk. To assess whether population differences might explain this divergence, we transported the effect of efavirenz use from these trials to a specific target population. Using inverse odds weights and multiple imputation, we transported the effect of efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors in these randomized trials (participants were enrolled in 2001-2007) to a trials-eligible cohort of US adults initiating antiretroviral therapy while receiving HIV clinical care at medical centers between 1999 and 2015. Overall, 8,291 cohort participants and 3,949 trial participants were eligible. Prescription of antidepressants (19% vs. 13%) and injection drug history (16% vs. 10%) were more frequent in the cohort than in the trial participants. Compared with the effect in trials, the estimated hazard ratio for efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors was attenuated in our target population (trials: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 4.4); transported: HR = 1.8 (95% CI: 0.9, 4.4)), whereas the incidence rate difference was similar (trials: HR = 5.1 (95% CI: 1.6, 8.7); transported: HR = 5.4 (95% CI: -0.4, 11.4)). In our target population, there was greater than 20% attenuation of the hazard ratio estimate as compared with the trials-only estimate. Transporting results from trials to a target population is informative for addressing external validity.

Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.

PARTICIPANTS

82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

MEASUREMENTS

Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function.

RESULTS

Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017.

LIMITATION

Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors.

CONCLUSION

Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Current and Past Immunodeficiency Are Associated With Higher Hospitalization Rates Among Persons on Virologically Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy for up to 11 Years

BACKGROUND

Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) with persistently low CD4 counts despite efficacious antiretroviral therapy could have higher hospitalization risk.

METHODS

In 6 US and Canadian clinical cohorts, PWH with virologic suppression for ≥1 year in 2005-2015 were followed until virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death, or study end. Stratified by early (years 2-5) and long-term (years 6-11) suppression and lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 and ≥200 cells/µL, Poisson regression models estimated hospitalization incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) comparing patients by time-updated CD4 count category, adjusted for cohort, age, gender, calendar year, suppression duration, and lowest presuppression CD4 count.

RESULTS

The 6997 included patients (19 980 person-years) were 81% cisgender men and 40% white. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 cells/μL (44%), patients with current CD4 count 200-350 vs >500 cells/μL had aIRRs of 1.44 during early suppression (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.06), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03-2.72) during long-term suppression. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count ≥200 (56%), patients with current CD4 351-500 vs >500 cells/μL had an aIRR of 1.22 (95% CI, .93-1.60) during early suppression and 2.09 (95% CI, 1.18-3.70) during long-term suppression.

CONCLUSIONS

Virologically suppressed patients with lower CD4 counts experienced higher hospitalization rates and could potentially benefit from targeted clinical management strategies.

Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Risk of Cancer Among Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

BACKGROUND

Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) experience a high burden of cancer. It remains unknown which cancer types are reduced in PLWH with earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

We evaluated AIDS-free, ART-naive PLWH during 1996-2014 from 22 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PLWH were followed from first observed CD4 of 350-500 cells/µL (baseline) until incident cancer, death, lost-to-follow-up, or December 2014. Outcomes included 6 cancer groups and 5 individual cancers that were confirmed by chart review or cancer registry linkage. We evaluated the effect of earlier (in the first 6 months after baseline) versus deferred ART initiation on cancer risk. Marginal structural models were used with inverse probability weighting to account for time-dependent confounding and informative right-censoring, with weights informed by subject's age, sex, cohort, baseline year, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, smoking, viral hepatitis, CD4, and AIDS diagnoses.

RESULTS

Protective results for earlier ART were found for any cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.86), AIDS-defining cancers (HR 0.23; 95% CI, .11-.49), any virus-related cancer (HR 0.30; 95% CI, .16-.54), Kaposi sarcoma (HR 0.25; 95% CI, .10-.61), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.22; 95% CI, .06-.73). By 15 years, there was also an observed reduced risk with earlier ART for virus-related NADCs (0.6% vs 2.3%; adjusted risk difference -1.6; 95% CI, -2.8, -.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier ART initiation has potential to reduce the burden of virus-related cancers in PLWH but not non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) without known or suspected viral etiology.

Brief Report: Hospitalization Rates Among Persons With HIV Who Gained Medicaid or Private Insurance After the Affordable Care Act in 2014

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether gaining inpatient health care coverage had an effect on hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) after implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014.

METHODS

Hospitalization data from 2015 were obtained for 1634 adults receiving longitudinal HIV care at 3 US HIV clinics within the HIV Research Network. All patients were engaged in care and previously uninsured and supported by the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program in 2013. We evaluated whether PWH who transitioned to either Medicaid or private insurance in 2014 tended to have a change in hospitalization rate compared with PWH who remained uncovered and Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program supported. Analyses were performed by negative binomial regression with robust standard errors, adjusting for gender, race/ethnicity, age, HIV risk factor, CD4 count, viral load, clinic site, and 2013 hospitalization rate.

RESULTS

Among PWH without inpatient health care coverage in 2013, transitioning to Medicaid [adjusted incidence rate ratio 1.26, (0.71, 2.23)] or to private insurance [0.48 (0.18, 1.28)] in 2014 was not associated with 2015 hospitalization rates, after accounting for demographics, HIV characteristics, and prior hospitalization rates. The factors significantly associated with higher hospitalization rates include age 55-64, CD4 <200 cells/µL, viral load >400 copies/mL, and 2013 hospitalization rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Acquiring inpatient coverage was not associated with a change in hospitalization rates. These results provide some evidence to allay the concern that acquiring inpatient coverage would lead to increased inpatient utilization.

Correction to: Genetic architecture of cardiometabolic risks in people living with HIV

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

HIV Viremia and Risk of Stroke Among People Living with HIV Who Are Using Antiretroviral Therapy

BACKGROUND

Rates of stroke are higher in people living with HIV compared with age-matched uninfected individuals. Causes of elevated stroke risk, including the role of viremia, are poorly defined.

METHODS

Between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2014, we identified incident strokes among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy at five sites across the United States. We considered three parameterizations of viral load (VL) including (1) baseline (most recent VL before study entry), (2) time-updated, and (3) cumulative VL (copy-days/mL of virus). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke risk comparing the 75th percentile ("high VL") to the 25th percentile ("low VL") of baseline and time-updated VL. We used marginal structural Cox models, with most models adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors, to estimate HRs for stroke associated with cumulative VL.

RESULTS

Among 15,974 people living with HIV, 139 experienced a stroke (113 ischemic; 18 hemorrhagic; eight were unknown type) over a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Median baseline VL was 38 copies/mL (interquartile interval: 24, 3,420). High baseline VL was associated with increased risk of both ischemic (HR: 1.3; 95% CI = 0.96-1.7) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 3.1; 95% CI = 1.6-5.9). In time-updated models, high VL was also associated with an increased risk of any stroke (HR: 1.8; 95% CI = 1.4-2.3). We observed no association between cumulative VL and stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated HIV VL may increase stroke risk, regardless of previous VL levels.

Internalized HIV Stigma Predicts Suboptimal Retention in Care Among People Living with HIV in the United States

HIV-related stigma is a known barrier to retention in care. However, no large-scale, multi-site studies have prospectively evaluated the effect of internalized stigma on retention in care. The Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort study integrates medical record and survey data from people living with HIV (PLWH) seen in HIV primary care clinics across the United States, and assesses internalized stigma yearly using a validated 4-item Likert scale. We used multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate associations between mean internalized stigma and two prospective retention in care outcomes: keeping the next primary care appointment and keeping all scheduled primary care appointments in the 12 months following stigma assessment. From February 2016 to November 2017, 5968 PLWH completed the stigma assessment and had adequate follow-up time. Mean stigma was 1.9 (standard deviation 1.08). Increased mean stigma scores were associated with decreased odds of attending the next primary care appointment [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.99, p = 0.02], and all primary care appointments in the subsequent 12 months (aOR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.89-0.99, p = 0.02). In both models, younger age and Black race were also independently associated with suboptimal appointment attendance. There was no support for interactions between internalized stigma and covariates. Internalized HIV stigma had an independent negative effect on the odds of subsequent appointment attendance. This study highlights the importance of identifying even low levels of internalized stigma. Interventions to address internalized HIV stigma are critical to supporting retention in care and improving clinical outcomes.

Clinic-Level Factors Associated With Retention in Care Among People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in a Multisite US Cohort, 2010-2016

BACKGROUND

Retention in care (RIC) leads to reduced HIV transmission and mortality. Few studies have investigated clinic services and RIC among people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States. We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study to identify clinic services associated with RIC from 2010-2016 in the United States.

METHODS

PLWH with ≥1 HIV primary care visit from 2010-2016 at 7 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) were included. Clinic-level factors evaluated via site survey included patients per provider/trainee, navigation, RIC posters/brochures, laboratory test timing, flexible scheduling, appointment reminder methods, and stigma support services. RIC was defined as ≥2 encounters per year, ≥90 days apart, observed until death, administrative censoring (31 December 2016), or loss to follow-up (censoring at first 12-month interval without a visit with no future visits). Poisson regression with robust error variance, clustered by site adjusting for calendar year, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and HIV transmission risk factor, estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RIC.

RESULTS

Among 21 046 PLWH contributing 103 348 person-years, 67% of person-years were retained. Availability of text appointment reminders (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.24) and stigma support services (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) were associated with better RIC. Disparities persisted for age, sex, and race.

CONCLUSIONS

Availability of text appointment reminders and stigma support services was associated with higher rates of RIC, indicating that these may be feasible and effective approaches for improving RIC.

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Missed HIV Health Care Provider Visits in a Large US Clinical Cohort

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level.

Methods

We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site–level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified.

Results

Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700.

Conclusions

Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.

Changing Patterns of Alcohol Use and Probability of Unsuppressed Viral Load Among Treated Patients with HIV Engaged in Routine Care in the United States

We examined HIV viral load non-suppression ([Formula: see text] 200 copies/mL) subsequent to person-periods (3-18 months) bookended by two self-reports of alcohol use on a standardized patient reported outcome assessment among adults in routine HIV care. We examined the relative risk (RR) of non-suppression associated with increases and decreases in alcohol use (relative to stable use), stratified by use at the start of the person-period. Increases in drinking from abstinence were associated with higher risk of viral non-suppression (low-risk without binge: RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03, 1.32; low-risk with binge: RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11, 1.63; high-risk: RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16, 3.08). Decreases in drinking from high-risk drinking were weakly, and not statistically significantly associated with lower risk of viral non-suppression. Other changes in alcohol use were not associated with viral load non-suppression. Most changes in alcohol consumption among people using alcohol at baseline were not strongly associated with viral non-suppression.

Brief Report: Differences in Types of Myocardial Infarctions Among People Aging With HIV

BACKGROUND

Type 1 myocardial infarctions (T1MIs) result from atherosclerotic plaque instability, rupture, and/or erosion. Type 2 MIs (T2MIs) are secondary to causes such as sepsis and cocaine-induced vasospasm resulting in an oxygen demand-supply mismatch and are associated with higher mortality than T1MIs. T2MIs account for a higher proportion of MIs among people living with HIV (PLWH) compared with the general population. We compared MI rates by type among aging PLWH. We hypothesized that increases in MI rates with older age would differ by MI types, and T2MIs would be more common than T1MIs in younger individuals.

METHODS

Potential MIs from 6 sites were centrally adjudicated using physician notes, electrocardiograms, procedure results, and laboratory results. Reviewers categorized MIs by type and identified causes of T2MIs. We calculated T1MI and T2MI incidence rates. Incidence rate ratios were calculated for T2MI vs. T1MI rates per decade of age.

RESULTS

We included 462 T1MIs (52%) and 413 T2MIs (48%). T1MI rates increased with older age, although T1MIs occurred in all age decades including young adults. T2MI rates were significantly higher than T1MI rates for PLWH younger than 40 years. T1MI rates were similar or higher than T2MI rates among those older than 40 years (significantly higher for those aged 50-59 and 60-69 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of T2MIs were higher than T1MIs until age 40 years among PLWH, differing from the general population, but rates of both were high among older PLWH. Given prognostic differences between MI types, these results highlight the importance of differentiating MI types among PLWH.

Impact and correlates of sub-optimal social support among patients in HIV care

Social support (SS) predicts health outcomes among patients living with HIV. We administered a brief, validated measure of SS, the Multifactoral Assessment of Perceived Social Support, within a patient-reported outcomes assessment of health domains in HIV care at 4 U.S. clinics in English and Spanish (n = 708). In univariate analysis, low SS was associated with poorer engagement in care, antiretroviral adherence, and health-related quality of life; current methamphetamine/crystal use, depression, anxiety, and HIV stigma (all p < 0.001); any use of either methamphetamines/crystal, illicit opioids, or cocaine/crack (p = 0.001), current marijuana use (p = 0.012), nicotine use (p = 0.005), and concern for sexually transmitted infection exposure (p = 0.001). High SS was associated with undetectable viral load (p = 0.031). Multivariate analyses found low SS independently associated with depression (risk ratio (RR) 3.72, 95% CI 2.93-4.72), lower adherence (RR 0.76, 95% CI 0.64-0.89), poor engagement in care (RR 2.05, 95% CI 1.44-2.96), and having more symptoms (RR 2.29, 95% CI 1.92-2.75). Medium SS was independently associated with depression (RR 2.59, 95% CI 2.00-3.36), poor engagement in care (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.15-2.29) and having more symptoms (RR 1.75, 95% CI 1.44-2.13). SS assessment may help identify patients at risk for these outcomes.

Characterizing the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Continuum Among Transgender Women and Cisgender Women and Men in Clinical Care: A Retrospective Time-series Analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest that transgender women (TW) with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are less likely to be virally suppressed than cisgender women (CW) and cisgender men (CM). However, prior data are limited by small sample sizes and cross-sectional designs. We sought to characterize the HIV care continuum comparing TW to CW and CM in the United States and Canada.

METHODS

We analyzed annual HIV care continuum outcomes by gender status from January 2001 through December 2015 among adults (aged ≥18 years) in 15 clinical cohorts. Outcomes were retention in care and viral suppression.

RESULTS

The study population included TW (n = 396), CW (n = 14 094), and CM (n = 101 667). TW had lower proportions retained in care than CW and CM (P < .01). Estimates of retention in care were consistently lower in TW, with little change over time within each group. TW and CW had similar proportions virally suppressed over time (TW, 36% in 2001 and 80% in 2015; CW, 35% in 2001 and 83% in 2015) and were lower than CM (41% in 2001 and 87% in 2015). These differences did not reach statistical significance after adjusting for age, race, HIV risk group, and cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

TW experience challenges with retention in HIV care. However, TW who are engaged in care achieve viral suppression that is comparable to that of CW and CM of similar age, race, and HIV risk group. Further research is needed to understand care engagement disparities.

Association of Immunosuppression and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viremia With Anal Cancer Risk in Persons Living With HIV in the United States and Canada

BACKGROUND

People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) have a markedly elevated anal cancer risk, largely due to loss of immunoregulatory control of oncogenic human papillomavirus infection. To better understand anal cancer development and prevention, we determined whether recent, past, cumulative, or nadir/peak CD4+ T-cell count (CD4) and/or HIV-1 RNA level (HIV RNA) best predict anal cancer risk.

METHODS

We studied 102 777 PLWH during 1996-2014 from 21 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, we assessed associations between anal cancer risk and various time-updated CD4 and HIV RNA measures, including cumulative and nadir/peak measures during prespecified moving time windows. We compared models using the Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS

Cumulative and nadir/peak CD4 or HIV RNA measures from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past were generally better predictors for anal cancer risk than their corresponding more recent measures. However, the best model included CD4 nadir (ie, the lowest CD4) from approximately 8.5 years to 6 months in the past (hazard ratio [HR] for <50 vs ≥500 cells/µL, 13.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5-51.0) and proportion of time CD4 <200 cells/µL from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past (a cumulative measure; HR for 100% vs 0%, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5-6.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results are consistent with anal cancer promotion by severe, prolonged HIV-induced immunosuppression. Nadir and cumulative CD4 may represent useful markers for identifying PLWH at higher anal cancer risk.

Patient acceptability and usability of a self-administered electronic patient-reported outcome assessment in HIV care: relationship with health behaviors and outcomes

We assessed acceptability/usability of tablet-based patient-reported outcome (PRO) assessments among patients in HIV care, and relationships with health outcomes using a modified Acceptability E-Scale (AES) within a self-administered PRO assessment. Using multivariable linear regression, we measured associations between patient characteristics and continuous combined AES score. Among 786 patients (median age=48; 91% male; 49% white; 17% Spanish-speaking) overall mean score was 26/30 points (SD: 4.4). Mean scores per dimension (max 5, 1=lowest acceptability, 5=highest): ease of use 4.7, understandability 4.7, time burden 4.3, overall satisfaction 4.3, helpfulness describing symptoms/behaviors 4.2, and enjoyability 3.8. Higher overall score was associated with race/ethnicity (+1.3 points/African-American patients (95%CI:0.3-2.3); +1.6 points/Latino patients (95%CI:0.9-2.3) compared to white patients). Patients completing PROs in Spanish scored +2.4 points on average (95%CI:1.6-3.3). Higher acceptability was associated with better quality of life (0.3 points (95%CI:0.2-0.5)) and adherence (0.4 points (95%CI:0.2-0.6)). Lower acceptability was associated with: higher depression symptoms (-0.9 points (95%CI:-1.4 to -0.4)); recent illicit opioid use (-2.0 points (95%CI:-3.9 to -0.2)); multiple recent sex partners (-0.8 points (95%CI:-1.5 to -0.1)). While patients endorsing depression symptoms, recent opioid use, condomless sex, or multiple sex partners found PROs less acceptable, overall, patients found the assessments highly acceptable and easy to use.

Genetic architecture of cardiometabolic risks in people living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Advances in antiretroviral therapies have greatly improved the survival of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PLWH); yet, PLWH have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease than those without HIV. While numerous genetic loci have been linked to cardiometabolic risk in the general population, genetic predictors of the excessive risk in PLWH are largely unknown.

METHODS

We screened for common and HIV-specific genetic variants associated with variation in lipid levels in 6284 PLWH (3095 European Americans [EA] and 3189 African Americans [AA]), from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort. Genetic hits found exclusively in the PLWH cohort were tested for association with other traits. We then assessed the predictive value of a series of polygenic risk scores (PRS) recapitulating the genetic burden for lipid levels, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and myocardial infarction (MI) in EA and AA PLWH.

RESULTS

We confirmed the impact of previously reported lipid-related susceptibility loci in PLWH. Furthermore, we identified PLWH-specific variants in genes involved in immune cell regulation and previously linked to HIV control, body composition, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Moreover, PLWH at the top of European-based PRS for T2D distribution demonstrated a > 2-fold increased risk of T2D compared to the remaining 95% in EA PLWH but to a much lesser degree in AA. Importantly, while PRS for MI was not predictive of MI risk in AA PLWH, multiethnic PRS significantly improved risk stratification for T2D and MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that genetic loci involved in the regulation of the immune system and predisposition to risky behaviors contribute to dyslipidemia in the presence of HIV infection. Moreover, we demonstrate the utility of the European-based and multiethnic PRS for stratification of PLWH at a high risk of cardiometabolic diseases who may benefit from preventive therapies.

Hospitalization Rates and Causes Among Persons With HIV in the United States and Canada, 2005-2015

BACKGROUND

To assess the possible impact of antiretroviral therapy improvements, aging, and comorbidities, we examined trends in all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) from 2005 to 2015.

METHODS

In 6 clinical cohorts, we followed PWH in care (≥1 outpatient CD4 count or HIV load [VL] every 12 months) and categorized ICD codes of primary discharge diagnoses using modified Clinical Classifications Software. Poisson regression estimated hospitalization rate ratios for calendar time trends, adjusted for demographics, HIV risk factor, and annually updated age, CD4, and VL.

RESULTS

Among 28 057 patients (125 724 person-years), from 2005 to 2015, the median CD4 increased from 389 to 580 cells/µL and virologic suppression from 55% to 85% of patients. Unadjusted all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 22.3 per 100 person-years in 2005 (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.6-24.1) to 13.0 in 2015 (95% CI, 12.2-14.0). Unadjusted rates decreased for almost all diagnostic categories. Adjusted rates decreased for all-cause, cardiovascular, and AIDS-defining conditions, increased for non-AIDS-defining infection, and were stable for most other categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Among PWH with increasing CD4 counts and viral suppression, unadjusted hospitalization rates decreased for all-cause and most cause-specific hospitalizations, despite the potential effects of aging, comorbidities, and cumulative exposure to HIV and antiretrovirals.

Measuring engagement in HIV care: Measurement invariance in three racial/ethnic patient groups

Objective: The objective of the study was to evaluate a novel measure of HIV care engagement in a large sample of non-Latino White, Latino, and African American patients. The Index of Engagement in HIV care (the Index) measures the degree to which a patient feels engaged/disengaged from HIV care. However, its measurement invariance, or the degree to which observed scores can be meaningfully compared across racial/ethnic groups, has not been established. Methods: The 10-item Index is a self-report measure initially validated in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Systems cohort study. Using Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Systems survey data, Index scores were linked to patients' electronic medical records, which included viral load (VL) and appointment attendance data. We conducted measurement invariance analyses to test the Index's performance in the 3 racial/ethnic groups and its cross-sectional association with VL and retention in HIV care (2 primary outcomes). Results: A total of 3,127 patients completed the Index, which showed good reliability across the 3 groups (alphas >.84). Confirmatory factor analysis model fit statistics showed that the Index demonstrated configural, metric, and scalar invariance, supporting the conclusion that the Index is a single factor construct. Lastly, lower Index scores associated with a concurrent detectable VL and poor retention in HIV care for all 3 groups. Conclusion: Having demonstrated invariance, the Index scores can be used to compare engagement levels across non-Latino Whites, Latinos, and African Americans in HIV care settings. Improving HIV care retention requires tools that can accurately identify people struggling to stay engaged in HIV care, especially racial/ethnic minorities. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Anemia risk factors among people living with HIV across the United States in the current treatment era: a clinical cohort study

Background

Anemia is common among people living with HIV infection (PLWH) and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Information on risk factors for anemia incidence in the current antiretroviral therapy (ART) era is lacking.

Methods

Within a prospective clinical cohort of adult PLWH receiving care at eight sites across the United States between 1/2010–3/2018, Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted among a) PLWH free of anemia at baseline and b) PLWH free of severe anemia at baseline to determine associations between time-updated patient characteristics and development of anemia (hemoglobin < 10 g/dL), or severe anemia (hemoglobin < 7.5 g/dL). Linear mixed effects models were used to examine relationships between patient characteristics and hemoglobin levels during follow-up. Hemoglobin levels were ascertained using laboratory data from routine clinical care. Potential risk factors included: age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, hazardous alcohol use, illicit drug use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), CD4 cell count, viral load, ART use and time in care at CNICS site.

Results

This retrospective cohort study included 15,126 PLWH. During a median follow-up of 6.6 (interquartile range [IQR] 4.3–7.6) years, 1086 participants developed anemia and 465 participants developed severe anemia. Factors that were associated with incident anemia included: older age, female sex, black race, HCV coinfection, lower CD4 cell counts, VL ≥400 copies/ml and lower eGFR.

Conclusion

Because anemia is a treatable condition associated with increased morbidity and mortality among PLWH, hemoglobin levels should be monitored routinely, especially among PLWH who have one or more risk factors for anemia.

Antiretroviral drug class and anaemia risk in the current treatment era among people living with HIV in the USA: a clinical cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Anaemia is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and has been associated with certain, often older, antiretroviral medications. Information on current antiretroviral therapy (ART) and anaemia is limited. The objective was to compare the associations between anaemia incidence or haemoglobin change with core ART classes in the current ART era.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

USA-based prospective clinical cohort of PLWH aged 18 and above receiving care at eight sites between January 2010 and March 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

16 505 PLWH were included in this study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Anaemia risk and haemoglobin change were estimated among PLWH for person-time on a protease inhibitor (PI) or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimen, relative to a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based reference. We also examined PLWH on regimens containing multiple core classes. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted to measure the associations between time-updated ART classes and incident anaemia or severe anaemia. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the relationships between ART classes and haemoglobin change.

RESULTS

During a median of 4.9 years of follow-up, 1040 developed anaemia and 488 developed severe anaemia. Compared with NNRTI use, INSTI-based regimens were associated with an increased risk of anaemia (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.26, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.58) and severe anaemia (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.11) and a decrease in haemoglobin level. Time on multiple core classes was also associated with increased anaemia risk (aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.70), while no associations were found for PI use.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest INSTI use may increase the risk of anaemia. If confirmed, screening for anaemia development in users of INSTIs may be beneficial. Further research into the underlying mechanisms is warranted.

Physical activity trends and metabolic health outcomes in people living with HIV in the US, 2008-2015

Despite its potential to improve metabolic health outcomes, longitudinal physical activity (PA) patterns and their association with cardiometabolic disease among people living with HIV (PLWH) have not been well characterized. We investigated this relationship among PLWH in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems with at least one PA self-report between 2008 and 2015. The 4-item Lipid Research Clinics PA instrument was used to categorize habitual PA levels as: Very Low, Low, Moderate, or High. We analyzed demographic differences in PA patterns. Multivariable generalized estimating equation regression models were fit to assess longitudinal associations of PA with blood pressure, lipid, and glucose levels. Logistic regression modeling was used to assess the odds of being diagnosed with obesity, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cerebrovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes, or multimorbidity. A total of 40,462 unique PA assessments were provided by 11,719 participants. Only 13% of PLWH reported High PA, while 68% reported Very Low/Low PA at baseline and did not increase PA levels during the study period. Compared to those reporting High PA, participants with Very Low PA had almost 2-fold increased risk for CVD. Very Low PA was also associated with several risk factors associated with CVD, most notably elevated triglycerides (odds ratio 25.4), obesity (odds ratio 1.9), hypertension (odds ratio 1.4), and diabetes (odds ratio 2.3; all p < 0.01). Low levels of PA over time among PLWH are associated with increased cardiometabolic disease risk.

Abstract WMP55: HIV Viral Load and Stroke Risk

Background: Among people living with HIV (PLWH), elevated plasma HIV RNA (viral load, [VL]), indicative of increased inflammation, may be associated with greater risk of stroke.

Methods: Among adult PLWH receiving clinical care at six Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) sites across the U.S. from January 2006 through January 2015, first ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke was identified from adjudicated clinical events. We considered baseline and time-updated VL. Baseline viral load was defined as the most recent viral load before 2006 or at CNICS cohort entry (if after 2006). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relationship between baseline VL and time-updated VL and stroke. We estimated hazard ratios for risk of stroke (all stroke, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke separately) comparing the 75 th percentile of VL (“high VL”) to the 25 th percentile (“low VL”). All models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, CNICS site, diabetes, treated hypertension, statin use, smoking, nadir CD4, BMI, hepatitis C virus coinfection, and baseline ART use. The hemorrhagic stroke model was also adjusted for FIB-4.

Results: Among 16,648 PLWH over an average follow-up of 4.7 years, there were 146 total strokes (119 ischemic; 19 hemorrhagic). At baseline, the median VL was 41 copies/mL (IQR: 24, 3860). Individuals with high baseline VL were 1.57 times more likely to have a stroke than individuals with low baseline VL (95% CI: 1.22, 2.04). In addition, high baseline VL was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.97) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 2.5; 95% CI: 1.25, 4.98). The HR for all strokes comparing high VL and low VL individuals using time-updated VL was 1.84 (95% CI: 1.42-2.40).

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that higher VL is associated with stroke risk after adjusting for traditional stroke risk factors, and may have a greater impact on incidence of hemorrhagic stroke. In addition to reducing HIV-related morbidity and mortality, improving HIV care may also reduce stroke risk.

Life-Expectancy Disparities Among Adults With HIV in the United States and Canada: The Impact of a Reduction in Drug- and Alcohol-Related Deaths Using the Lives Saved Simulation Model

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viral Suppression After Transition From Having No Healthcare Coverage and Relying on Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program Support to Medicaid or Private Health Insurance

Among 1942 persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without healthcare coverage in 2012-2015, transitioning to Medicaid (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.95 [0.87, 1.04]) or to private health insurance (1.04 [0.95, 1.13]) was not associated with a change in consistent HIV viral suppression compared to continued reliance on the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

Combined estimation of disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy among treated individuals with HIV in the USA: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Accurately estimating HIV disease progression and retention on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can help inform interventions to control HIV microepidemics and mathematical models used to inform health-resource allocation decisions. Our objective was to estimate the monthly probabilities of on-ART CD4 T-cell count progression, mortality, ART dropout, and ART reinitiation using a continuous-time multistate Markov model. We also aimed to validate health-state transition probability estimates to ensure they accurately reproduced the regional HIV microepidemics across the USA.

METHODS

In our modelling study, we considered a cohort of patients from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 17 adult and paediatric HIV-care providers located in the northeastern (n=8), southern (n=5), and western (n=4) regions of the USA. Individuals aged 15 years or older who were in HIV care (defined as one CD4 test and one HIV-care visit in a calendar year period) with at least one ART prescription between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2015, were included in the analysis. We used continuous-time multistate Markov models to estimate transitions between CD4 strata and between on-ART and off-ART states. We examined and adjusted for differences in probability of transition by region, race or ethnicity, sex, HIV risk group, and other baseline clinical indicators.

FINDINGS

The median age of the 32 242 individuals included in the analysis was 44 years (interquartile range 35-51). Over a median follow-up of 4·9 years (2·6-6·0), 8614 (26·7%) of 32 242 people interrupted ART and 1325 (4·1%) of 32 242 people died. Women, men who have sex with men, and individuals with no previous ART experience had greater increases in CD4 cell counts, whereas black people and people who inject drugs had increased probabilities of ART dropout and faster disease progression. Regardless of CD4 strata, individuals had increased hazard for ART dropout if they were from the south (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] range from 1·91, 95% CI 1·71-2·13, to 2·45, 2·29-2·62) or the west (aHR range from 1·29, 1·10-1·51, to 1·66, 1·51-1·82) of the USA, compared with individuals from the northeast USA.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show heterogeneities in disease progression during ART and probability of ART retention across race and ethnicity, HIV risk groups, and regions. These differences should be viewed as targets for intervention and should be incorporated in mathematical models of regional HIV microepidemics in the USA.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and Health Resources and Services Administration.

Alcohol Use Patterns and Subsequent Sexual Behaviors Among Women, Men who have Sex with Men and Men who have Sex with Women Engaged in Routine HIV Care in the United States

Among people with HIV, alcohol use is associated with increased prevalence of sexual transmission behaviors. We examined associations between alcohol use in the prior year and sexual behaviors approximately six months later among 1857 women, 6752 men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2685 men who have sex with women (MSW). Any alcohol use was associated with increased risk of unsafe vaginal sex among women; anal sex and =>2 anal sex partners among MSM; and anal sex, =>2 anal or vaginal sex partners, and unsafe vaginal sex among MSW. In particular, among women >7 alcoholic drinks/week and among MSW =>5 alcoholic drinks/drinking day increased the likelihood of certain subsequent sexual behaviors. For all groups, especially women, the risk of sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol markedly increased with increases in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption. These different patterns of drinking and sexual behaviors indicate the importance of tailored counseling messages to women, MSM and MSW.

Association of immunosuppression and HIV viraemia with non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk overall and by subtype in people living with HIV in Canada and the USA: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Research is needed to better understand relations between immunosuppression and HIV viraemia and risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a common cancer in people living with HIV. We aimed to identify key CD4 count and HIV RNA (viral load) predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, overall and by subtype.

METHODS

We studied people living with HIV during 1996-2014 from 21 Canadian and US cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. To determine key independent predictors of risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, we assessed associations with time-updated recent, past, cumulative, and nadir or peak measures of CD4 count and viral load, using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, and we compared models using Akaike's information criterion.

FINDINGS

Of 102 131 people living with HIV during the study period, 712 people developed non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The key independent predictors of risk for overall non-Hodgkin lymphoma were recent CD4 count (ie, lagged by 6 months; <50 cells per μL vs ≥500 cells per μL, hazard ratio [HR] 3·2, 95% CI 2·2-4·7) and average viral load during a 3-year window lagged by 6 months (a cumulative measure; ≥100 000 copies per mL vs ≤500 copies per mL, HR 9·6, 95% CI 6·5-14·0). These measures were also the key predictors of risk for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (recent CD4 count <50 cells per μL vs ≥500 cells per μL, HR 2·4, 95% CI 1·4-4·2; average viral load ≥100 000 copies per mL vs ≤500 copies per mL, HR 7·5, 95% CI 4·5-12·7). However, recent CD4 count was the sole key predictor of risk for CNS non-Hodgkin lymphoma (<50 cells per μL vs ≥500 cells per μL, HR 426·3, 95% CI 58·1-3126·4), and proportion of time viral load was greater than 500 copies per mL during the 3-year window (a cumulative measure) was the sole key predictor for Burkitt lymphoma (100% vs 0%, HR 41·1, 95% CI 9·1-186·6).

INTERPRETATION

Both recent immunosuppression and prolonged HIV viraemia have important independent roles in the development of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, with likely subtype heterogeneity. Early and sustained antiretroviral therapy to decrease HIV replication, dampen B-cell activation, and restore overall immune function is crucial for preventing non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, US Health Resources and Services Administration, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, and the Government of Alberta.

Effectiveness of Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy in Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection in Routine Clinical Care: A Multicenter Study

Background

Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy have been shown to be highly successful in clinical trials and observational studies, but less is known about treatment success in patients with a high burden of comorbid conditions, including mental health and substance use disorders. We evaluated DAA effectiveness across a broad spectrum of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in routine clinical care, including those with psychosocial comorbid conditions.

Methods

The primary end point was sustained virologic response (SVR), defined as HCV RNA not detected or <25 IU/mL ≥10 weeks after treatment. We calculated SVR rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a modified intent-to-treat analysis. We repeated this analysis after multiply imputing missing SVR values.

Results

Among 642 DAA-treated patients, 536 had SVR assessments. The median age was 55 years; 79% were men, 59% black, and 32% white. Cirrhosis (fibrosis-4 index>3.25) was present in 24%, and 17% were interferon treatment experienced; 96% had genotype 1 infection and 432 (81%) had received ledipasvir-sofosbuvir. SVR occurred in 96.5% (95% CI, 94.5%-97.9%). Patients who were black, treatment experienced, or cirrhotic all had SVR rates >95%. Patients with depression and/or anxiety, psychotic disorder, illicit drug use, or alcohol use disorder also had high SVR rates, ranging from 95.4% to 96.8%. The only factor associated with lower SVR rate was early discontinuation (77.8%; 95% CI, 52.4%-93.6%). Similar results were seen in multiply imputed data sets.

Conclusions

Our study represents a large multicenter examination of DAA therapy in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. The broad treatment success we observed across this diverse group of patients with significant comorbid conditions is highly affirming and argues for widespread implementation of DAA therapy.

Compound Retention in Care and All-Cause Mortality Among Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus

Background

To obtain optimal health outcomes, persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) must be retained in clinical care. We examined the relationships between 4 possible combinations of 2 separate retention measures (missed visits and the Institute of Medicine [IOM] indicator) and all-cause mortality.

Methods

The sample included 4162 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive patients who started ART between January 2000 and July 2010 at any of 5 US sites of the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. The independent variable of interest was retention, captured over the 12-month period after the initiation of ART. The study outcome, all-cause mortality 1 year after ART initiation, was determined by querying the Social Security Death Index or the National Death Index. We evaluated the associations of the 4 categories of retention with all-cause mortality, using the Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

Ten percent of patients did not meet retention standards for either measure (hazard ratio [HR], 2.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59-3.21). Patients retained by the IOM but not the missed-visits measure (42%) had a higher HR for mortality (1.72; 95% CI, 1.33-2.21) than patients retained by both measures (41%). Patients retained by the missed-visits but not the IOM measure (6%) had the same mortality hazards as patients retained by both measures (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, .54-1.87).

Conclusions

Missed visits within the first 12 months of ART initiation are a major risk factor for subsequent death. Incorporating missed visits in clinical and public health retention and viral suppression programming is advised.

Mind the gap: observation windows to define periods of event ascertainment as a quality control method for longitudinal electronic health record data

PURPOSE

Use of electronic health records (EHRs) in health research may lead to the false assumption of complete event ascertainment. We estimated "observation windows" (OWs), defined as periods within which the assumption of complete ascertainment of events is more likely to hold, as a quality control approach to reducing the likelihood of this false assumption. We demonstrated the impact of OWs on estimating the rates of type II diabetes mellitus (diabetes) from HIV clinical cohorts.

METHODS

Data contributed by 16 HIV clinical cohorts to the NA-ACCORD were used to identify and evaluate OWs for an operationalized definition of diabetes occurrence as a case study. Procedures included (1) gathering cohort-level data; (2) visualizing and summarizing gaps in observations; (3) systematically establishing start and stop dates during which the assumption of complete ascertainment of diabetes events was reasonable; and (4) visualizing the diabetes OWs relative to the cohort open and close dates to identify immortal person-time. We estimated diabetes occurrence event rates and 95% confidence intervals in the most recent decade that data were available (January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016).

RESULTS

The number of diabetes events decreased by 17% with the use of the diabetes OWs; immortal person-time was removed decreasing total person-years by 23%. Consequently, the diabetes rate increased from 1.23 (95% confidence interval [1.20, 1.25]) per 100 person-years to 1.32 [1.29, 1.35] per 100 person-years with the use of diabetes OWs.

CONCLUSIONS

As the use of EHR-curated data for event-driven health research continues to expand, OWs have utility as a quality control approach to complete event ascertainment, helping to improve accuracy of estimates by removing immortal person-time when ascertainment is incomplete.

Uptake and virological outcomes of single- versus multi-tablet antiretroviral regimens among treatment-naïve youth in the HIV Research Network

OBJECTIVES

Several single-tablet regimens (STRs) are now available and are recommended for first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART); however, STR use for youth with HIV (YHIV) has not been systematically studied. We examined the characteristics associated with initiation of STRs versus multi-tablet regimens (MTRs) and the virological outcomes for youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (nPHIV).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of nPHIV youth aged 13-24 years initiating ART between 2006 and 2014 at 18 US HIV clinical sites in the HIV Research Network was performed. The outcomes measured were initiation of STRs versus MTRs, virological suppression (VS) at 12 months, and time to VS. Demographic and clinical factors associated with initiation of STR versus MTR ART and VS (< 400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) at 12 months after initiation were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess VS within the first year.

RESULTS

Of 987 youth, 67% initiated STRs. Of the 589 who had viral load data at 1 year, 84% of those on STRs versus 67% of those on MTRs achieved VS (P < 0.01). VS was associated with STR use [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.58], white (AOR 2.41; 95% CI 1.13-5.13) or Hispanic (AOR 2.38; 95% CI 1.32-4.27) race/ethnicity, and baseline CD4 count 351-500 cells/μL (AOR 1.94; 95% CI 1.18-3.19) and > 500 cells/μL (AOR 1.76; 95% CI 1.0-3.10). STR use was not associated with a shorter time to VS compared with MTR use [hazard ratio (HR) 1.07; 95% CI 0.90-1.28].

CONCLUSIONS

Use of STR was associated with a greater likelihood of sustained VS 12 months after ART initiation in YHIV.

Reduced Cancer Survival Among Adults With HIV and AIDS-Defining Illnesses Despite No Difference in Cancer Stage at Diagnosis

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether immune dysfunction is associated with increased risk of death after cancer diagnosis in persons with HIV (PWH). AIDS-defining illness (ADI) can signal significant immunosuppression. Our objective was to determine differences in cancer stage and mortality rates in PWH with and without history of ADI.

METHODS

PWH with anal, oropharynx, cervical, lung cancers, or Hodgkin lymphoma diagnoses from January 2000 to December 2009 in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design were included.

RESULTS

Among 81,865 PWH, 814 had diagnoses included in the study; 341 (39%) had a history of ADI at time of cancer diagnosis. For each cancer type, stage at diagnosis did not differ by ADI (P > 0.05). Mortality and survival estimates for cervical cancer were limited by n = 5 diagnoses. Adjusted mortality rate ratios showed a 30%-70% increase in mortality among those with ADI for all cancer diagnoses, although only lung cancer was statistically significant. Survival after lung cancer diagnosis was poorer in PWH with ADI vs. without (P = 0.0001); the probability of survival was also poorer in those with ADI at, or before other cancers although not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

PWH with a history of ADI at lung cancer diagnosis had higher mortality and poorer survival after diagnosis compared to those without. Although not statistically significant, the findings of increased mortality and decreased survival among those with ADI (vs. without) were consistent for all other cancers, suggesting the need for further investigations into the role of HIV-related immune suppression and cancer outcomes.

Development and content validation of measures assessing adherence barriers and behaviors for use in clinical care

BACKGROUND

Providers are often unaware of poor adherence to prescribed medications for their patients with chronic diseases.

OBJECTIVE

To develop brief, computer-administered patient-reported measures in English and Spanish assessing adherence behaviors and barriers. Design, Participants, and Main Measures: Item pools were constructed from existing measures of medication adherence behaviors and barriers, which informed development of a patient concept elicitation interview guide to identify medication adherence behavior and barrier-related concepts. Two hundred six patients either living with HIV (PLWH) or without were interviewed. Interviews were coded, concepts matched to item pool content, and new items were developed for novel concepts. A provider/investigator team highlighted clinically relevant items. Cognitive interviews were conducted with patients on final candidate items (n = 37). The instruments were administered to 2081 PLWH.

KEY RESULTS

Behavioral themes from concept elicitation interviews included routines incorporating time of day, placement, visual cues, and intentionality to miss or skip doses. Barrier themes included health-related (e.g. depressed mood, feeling ill), attitudes/beliefs (e.g., need for medication), access (e.g., cost/insurance problems), and circumstantial barriers (e.g., lack of privacy, disruption of daily routine). The final instruments included 6 behavior items, and 1 barrier item with up to 23 response options. PLWH endorsed a mean (SD) of 3.5 (1.1) behaviors. The 201 PLWH who missed ≥2 doses in the previous week endorsed a mean (SD) of 3.1 (2.5) barriers. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the numbers of behaviors endorsed in 61 PLWH after 4-16 days was 0.54 and for the number of barriers for the 20 PLWH with ≥2 missed doses the ICC was 0.89, representing fair and excellent test-retest reliability.

CONCLUSION

Measures of medication adherence behaviors and barriers were developed for use with patients living with chronic diseases focusing on clinical relevance, brevity, and content validity for use in clinical care.

HIV Viral Suppression Trends Over Time Among HIV-Infected Patients Receiving Care in the United States, 1997 to 2015: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Because HIV viral suppression is essential for optimal outcomes and prevention efforts, understanding trends and predictors is imperative to inform public health policy.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate viral suppression trends in people living with HIV (PLWH), including the relationship of associated factors, such as demographic characteristics and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (ISTI) use.

DESIGN

Longitudinal observational cohort study.

SETTING

8 HIV clinics across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

PLWH receiving clinical care.

MEASUREMENTS

To understand trends in viral suppression (≤400 copies/mL), annual viral suppression rates from 1997 to 2015 were determined. Analyses were repeated with tests limited to 1 random test per person per year and using inverse probability of censoring weights to address loss to follow-up. Joint longitudinal and survival models and linear mixed models of PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) were used to examine associations between viral suppression or continuous viral load (VL) levels and demographic factors, substance use, adherence, and ISTI use.

RESULTS

Viral suppression increased from 32% in 1997 to 86% in 2015 on the basis of all tests among 31 930 PLWH. In adjusted analyses, being older (odds ratio [OR], 0.76 per decade [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.78]) and using an ISTI-based regimen (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.51 to 0.57]) were associated with lower odds of having a detectable VL, and black race was associated with higher odds (OR, 1.68 [CI, 1.57 to 1.80]) (P < 0.001 for each). Similar patterns were seen with continuous VL levels; when analyses were limited to 2010 to 2015; and with adjustment for adherence, substance use, or depression.

LIMITATION

Results are limited to PLWH receiving clinical care.

CONCLUSION

HIV viral suppression rates have improved dramatically across the United States, which is likely partially attributable to improved ART, including ISTI-based regimens. However, disparities among younger and black PLWH merit attention.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Sensitivity Analyses for Misclassification of Cause of Death in the Parametric G-Formula

Cause-specific mortality is an important outcome in studies of interventions to improve survival, yet causes of death can be misclassified. Here, we present an approach to performing sensitivity analyses for misclassification of cause of death in the parametric g-formula. The g-formula is a useful method to estimate effects of interventions in epidemiologic research because it appropriately accounts for time-varying confounding affected by prior treatment and can estimate risk under dynamic treatment plans. We illustrate our approach using an example comparing acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality under immediate and delayed treatment strategies in a cohort of therapy-naive adults entering care for human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States. In the standard g-formula approach, 10-year risk of AIDS-related mortality under delayed treatment was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.17, 2.54) times the risk under immediate treatment. In a sensitivity analysis assuming that AIDS-related death was measured with sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 90%, the 10-year risk ratio comparing AIDS-related mortality between treatment plans was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.13, 3.14). When sensitivity and specificity are unknown, this approach can be used to estimate the effects of dynamic treatment plans under a range of plausible values of sensitivity and specificity of the recorded event type.

Predictors of Missed Hepatitis C Intake Appointments and Failure to Establish Hepatitis C Care Among Patients Living With HIV

Background

We estimated and characterized the proportion of patients living with HIV (PLWH) who missed hepatitis C (HCV) intake appointments and subsequently failed to establish HCV care.

Methods

Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with missed HCV intake appointments and failure to establish HCV care among PLWH referred for HCV treatment between January 2014 and December 2017. In addition to demographics, variables included HIV treatment characteristics, type of insurance, liver health status, active alcohol or illicit drug use, unstable housing, and history of a mental health disorder (MHD).

Results

During the study period, 349 new HCV clinic appointments were scheduled for 202 unduplicated patients. Approximately half were nonwhite, and 80% had an undetectable HIV viral load. Drug use (31.7%), heavy alcohol use (32.8%), and MHD (37.8%) were prevalent. Over the 4-year period, 21.9% of PLWH referred for HCV treatment missed their HCV intake appointment. The proportion increased each year, from 17.2% in 2014 to 25.4% in 2017 (P = .021). Sixty-six of the 202 newly referred HCV patients (32.7%) missed their first HCV appointment, and 28 of these (42.4%) failed to establish HCV care. Having a history of MHD, CD4 <200, ongoing drug use, and being nonwhite were independent predictors of missing an intake HCV appointment. The strongest predictor of failure to establish HCV care was having a detectable HIV viral load.

Conclusions

The proportion of PLWH with missed HCV appointments increased over time. HCV elimination among PLWH may require integrated treatment of MHD and substance use.

Incident AIDS or Death After Initiation of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Regimens Including Raltegravir or Efavirenz Among Adults in the United States

Background.

The long-term effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatments containing integrase inhibitors is unknown.

Methods.

We use observational data from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate 4-year risk of AIDS and all-cause mortality among 415 patients starting a raltegravir regimen compared to 2646 starting an efavirenz regimen (both regimens include emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate). We account for confounding and selection bias as well as generalizability by standardization for measured variables, and present both observational intent-to-treat and per-protocol estimates.

Results.

At treatment initiation, 12% of patients were female, 36% black, 13% Hispanic; median age was 37 years, CD4 count 321 cells/µL, and viral load 4.5 log10 copies/mL. Two hundred thirty-five patients incurred an AIDS-defining illness or died, and 741 patients left follow-up. After accounting for measured differences, the 4-year risk was similar among those starting both regimens (ie, intent-to treat hazard ratio [HR], 0.96 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .63-1.45]; risk difference, -0.9 [95% CI, -4.5 to 2.7]), as well as among those remaining on regimens (ie, per-protocol HR, 0.95 [95% CI, .59-1.54]; risk difference, -0.5 [95% CI, -3.8 to 2.9]).

Conclusions.

Raltegravir and efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy have similar 4-year clinical effects. Vigilance regarding longer-term comparative effectiveness of HIV regimens using observational data is needed because large-scale experimental data are not forthcoming.

Evaluating the Population Impact on Racial/Ethnic Disparities in HIV in Adulthood of Intervening on Specific Targets: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data.

Predictors of Longitudinal Trajectories of Alcohol Consumption in People with HIV

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to describe alcohol consumption trajectories in a cohort of people living with HIV and determine clinical and sociodemographic predictors of each trajectory.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of 7,906 patients in the 7 Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites. Alcohol consumption was categorized as none, moderate, and alcohol misuse. Predictors included age, race/ethnicity, depressive or anxiety symptoms, illicit drug use (opioids, methamphetamines, cocaine/crack), marijuana use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, HIV transmission risk factor, and HIV disease progression. We estimated sex-stratified alcohol consumption trajectories and their predictors.

RESULTS

We found 7 trajectories of alcohol consumption in men: stable nondrinking and increased drinking (71% and 29% of initial nondrinking); stable moderate, reduced drinking, and increased alcohol misuse (59%, 21%, and 21% of initial moderate alcohol use); and stable alcohol misuse and reduced alcohol misuse (75% and 25% of initial alcohol misuse). Categories were similar in women, except lack of an increase to alcohol misuse trajectory among women that begin with moderate use. Older men and women were more likely to have stable nondrinking, while younger men were more likely to increase to or remain in alcohol misuse. Minorities, people with depressive or anxiety symptoms, HCV-infected individuals, and people who injected drugs were more likely to reduce use. Illicit drug use was associated with a reduction in overall drinking, while marijuana use was associated with stable moderate drinking or misuse.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal trajectories of increasing alcohol use and stable misuse highlight the need to integrate routine screening and alcohol misuse interventions into HIV primary care.

Estimating multiple time-fixed treatment effects using a semi-Bayes semiparametric marginal structural Cox proportional hazards regression model

Marginal structural models for time-fixed treatments fit using inverse-probability weighted estimating equations are increasingly popular. Nonetheless, the resulting effect estimates are subject to finite-sample bias when data are sparse, as is typical for large-sample procedures. Here we propose a semi-Bayes estimation approach which penalizes or shrinks the estimated model parameters to improve finite-sample performance. This approach uses simple symmetric data-augmentation priors. Limited simulation experiments indicate that the proposed approach reduces finite-sample bias and improves confidence-interval coverage when the true values lie within the central "hill" of the prior distribution. We illustrate the approach with data from a nonexperimental study of HIV treatments.