Mortality Among HIV-Infected Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Uganda

BACKGROUND

Monitoring and evaluation of clinical programs requires assessing patient outcomes. Numerous challenges complicate these efforts, the most insidious of which is loss to follow-up (LTFU). LTFU is a composite outcome, including individuals out of care, undocumented transfers, and unreported deaths. Incorporation of vital status information from routine patient outreach may improve the mortality estimates for those LTFU.

SETTINGS

We analyzed routinely collected clinical and patient tracing data for individuals (15 years or older) initiating antiretroviral treatment between January 2014 and December 2018 at 2 public HIV care clinics in greater Rakai, Uganda.

METHODS

We derived unadjusted mortality estimates using Kaplan-Meier methods. Estimates, adjusted for unreported deaths, applied weighting through the Frangakis and Rubin method to represent outcomes among LTFU patients who were successfully traced and for whom vital status was ascertained. Confidence intervals were determined through bootstrap methods.

RESULTS

Of 1969 patients with median age at antiretroviral treatment initiation of 31 years (interquartile range: 25-38), 1126 (57.2%) were female patients and 808 (41%) were lost. Of the lost patients, 640 patient files (79.2%) were found and reviewed, of which 204 (31.8%) had a tracing attempt. Within the electronic health records of the program, 28 deaths were identified with an estimated unadjusted mortality 1 year after antiretroviral treatment initiation of 2.5% (95% CI: 1.8% to 3.3%). Using chart review and patient tracing data, an additional 24 deaths (total 52) were discovered with an adjusted 1-year mortality of 3.8% (95% CI: 2.6% to 5.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Data from routine outreach efforts by HIV care and treatment programs can be used to support plausible adjustments to estimates of client mortality. Mortality estimates without active ascertainment of vital status of LTFU patients may significantly underestimate program mortality.

Assessing HIV-infected patient retention in a program of differentiated care in sub-Saharan Africa: a G-estimation approach

Differentiated care delivery aims to simplify care of people living with HIV, reflect their preferences, reduce burdens on the healthcare system, maintain care quality and preserve resources. However, assessing program effectiveness using observational data is difficult due to confounding by indication and randomized trials may be infeasible. Also, benefits can reach patients directly, through enrollment in the program, and indirectly, by increasing quality of and accessibility to care. Low-risk express care (LREC), the program under evaluation, is a nurse-centered model which assigns patients stable on ART to a nurse every two months and a clinician every third visit, reducing annual clinician visits by two thirds. Study population is comprised of 16,832 subjects from 15 clinics in Kenya. We focus on patient retention in care based on whether the LREC program is available at a clinic and whether the patient is enrolled in LREC. We use G-estimation to assess the effect on retention of two "strategies": (i) program availability but no enrollment; (ii) enrollment at an available program; versus no program availability. Compared to no availability, LREC results in a non-significant increase in patient retention, among patients not enrolled in the program (indirect effect), while enrollment in LREC is associated with a significant extension of the time retained in care (direct effect). G-estimation provides an analytical framework useful to the assessment of similar programs using observational data.

The Effect of HIV Treatment Interruption on Subsequent Immunological Response

Recovery of CD4-positive T lymphocyte count after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been thoroughly examined among people with human immunodeficiency virus infection. However, immunological response after restart of ART following care interruption is less well studied. We compared CD4 cell-count trends before disengagement from care and after ART reinitiation. Data were obtained from the East Africa International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Collaboration (2001-2011; n = 62,534). CD4 cell-count trends before disengagement, during disengagement, and after ART reinitiation were simultaneously estimated through a linear mixed model with 2 subject-specific knots placed at the times of disengagement and treatment reinitiation. We also estimated CD4 trends conditional on the baseline CD4 value. A total of 10,961 patients returned to care after disengagement from care, with the median gap in care being 2.7 (interquartile range, 2.1-5.4) months. Our model showed that CD4 cell-count increases after ART reinitiation were much slower than those before disengagement. Assuming that disengagement from care occurred 12 months after ART initiation and a 3-month treatment gap, CD4 counts measured at 3 years since ART initiation would be lower by 36.5 cells/μL than those obtained under no disengagement. Given that poorer CD4 restoration is associated with increased mortality/morbidity, specific interventions targeted at better retention in care are urgently required.

Clinical and programmatic outcomes of HIV-exposed infants enrolled in care at geographically diverse clinics, 1997-2021: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although 1·3 million women with HIV give birth annually, care and outcomes for HIV-exposed infants remain incompletely understood. We analyzed programmatic and health indicators in a large, multidecade global dataset of linked mother-infant records from clinics and programs associated with the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

HIV-exposed infants were eligible for this retrospective cohort analysis if enrolled at <18 months at 198 clinics in 10 countries across 5 IeDEA regions: East Africa (EA), Central Africa (CA), West Africa (WA), Southern Africa (SA), and the Caribbean, Central, and South America network (CCASAnet). We estimated cumulative incidences of DNA PCR testing, loss to follow-up (LTFU), HIV diagnosis, and death through 24 months of age using proportional subdistribution hazard models accounting for competing risks. Competing risks were transfer, care withdrawal, and confirmation of negative HIV status, along with LTFU and death, when not the outcome of interest. In CA and EA, we quantified associations between maternal/infant characteristics and each outcome. A total of 82,067 infants (47,300 EA, 10,699 CA, 6,503 WA, 15,770 SA, 1,795 CCASAnet) born from 1997 to 2021 were included. Maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) use during pregnancy ranged from 65·6% (CCASAnet) to 89·5% (EA), with improvements in all regions over time. Twenty-four-month cumulative incidences varied widely across regions, ranging from 12·3% (95% confidence limit [CL], 11·2%,13·5%) in WA to 94·8% (95% CL, 94·6%,95·1%) in EA for DNA PCR testing; 56·2% (95% CL, 55·2%,57·1%) in EA to 98·5% (95% CL, 98·3%,98·7%) in WA for LTFU; 1·9% (95% CL, 1·6%,2·3%) in WA to 10·3% (95% CL, 9·7%,10·9%) in EA for HIV diagnosis; and 0·5% (95% CL, 0·2%,1·0%) in CCASAnet to 4·7% (95% CL, 4·4%,5·0%) in EA for death. Although infant retention did not improve, HIV diagnosis and death decreased over time, and in EA, the cumulative incidence of HIV diagnosis decreased substantially, declining to 2·9% (95% CL, 1·5%,5·4%) in 2020. Maternal ART was associated with decreased infant mortality (subdistribution hazard ratio [sdHR], 0·65; 95% CL, 0·47,0·91 in EA, and sdHR, 0·51; 95% CL, 0·36,0·74 in CA) and HIV diagnosis (sdHR, 0·40; 95% CL, 0·31,0·50 in EA, and sdHR, 0·41; 95% CL, 0·31,0·54 in CA). Study limitations include potential misclassification of outcomes in real-world service delivery data and possible nonrepresentativeness of IeDEA sites and the population of HIV-exposed infants they serve.

CONCLUSIONS

While there was marked regional and temporal heterogeneity in clinical and programmatic outcomes, infant LTFU was high across all regions and time periods. Further efforts are needed to keep HIV-exposed infants in care to receive essential services to reduce HIV infection and mortality.

Disparities in Dolutegravir Uptake Affecting Females of Reproductive Age With HIV in Low- and Middle-Income Countries After Initial Concerns About Teratogenicity : An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

The transition to dolutegravir-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was complicated by an initial safety signal in May 2018 suggesting that exposure to dolutegravir at conception was possibly associated with infant neural tube defects. On the basis of additional evidence, in July 2019, the World Health Organization recommended dolutegravir for all adults and adolescents living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE

To describe dolutegravir uptake and disparities by sex and age group in LMICs.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

87 sites that began using dolutegravir in 11 LMICs in the Asia-Pacific; Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet); and sub-Saharan African regions of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium.

PATIENTS

134 672 patients aged 16 years or older who received HIV care from January 2017 through March 2020.

MEASUREMENTS

Sex, age group, and dolutegravir uptake (that is, newly initiating ART with dolutegravir or switching to dolutegravir from another regimen).

RESULTS

Differences in dolutegravir uptake among females of reproductive age (16 to 49 years) emerged after the safety signal. By the end of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of dolutegravir uptake among females 16 to 49 years old was 29.4% (95% CI, 29.0% to 29.7%) compared with 57.7% (CI, 57.2% to 58.3%) among males 16 to 49 years old. This disparity was greater in countries that began implementing dolutegravir before the safety signal and initially had highly restrictive policies versus countries with a later rollout. Dolutegravir uptake was similar among females and males aged 50 years or older.

LIMITATION

Follow-up was limited to 6 to 8 months after international guidelines recommended expanding access to dolutegravir.

CONCLUSION

Substantial disparities in dolutegravir uptake affecting females of reproductive age through early 2020 are documented. Although this disparity was anticipated because of country-level restrictions on access, the results highlight its extent and initial persistence.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Viral Load Status Before Switching to Dolutegravir-Containing Antiretroviral Therapy and Associations With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Dolutegravir is being rolled out globally as part of preferred antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, including among treatment-experienced patients. The role of viral load (VL) testing before switching patients already on ART to a dolutegravir-containing regimen is less clear in real-world settings.

METHODS

We included patients from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS consortium who switched from a nevirapine- or efavirenz-containing regimen to one with dolutegravir. We used multivariable cause-specific hazards regression to estimate the association of the most recent VL test in the 12 months before switching with subsequent outcomes.

RESULTS

We included 36 393 patients at 37 sites in 5 countries (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) who switched to dolutegravir from July 2017 through February 2020, with a median follow-up of approximately 11 months. Compared with those who switched with a VL <200 copies/mL, patients without a recent VL test or with a preswitch VL ≥1000 copies/mL had significantly increased hazards of an incident VL ≥1000 copies/mL (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99-4.19 and aHR, 6.60; 95% CI, 4.36-9.99, respectively) and pulmonary tuberculosis or a World Health Organization clinical stage 4 event (aHR, 4.78; 95% CI, 2.77-8.24 and aHR, 13.97; 95% CI, 6.62-29.50, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

A VL test before switching to dolutegravir may help identify patients who need additional clinical monitoring and/or adherence support. Further surveillance of patients who switched to dolutegravir with an unknown or unsuppressed VL is needed.

Decreasing incidence of pregnancy among HIV-positive adolescents in a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya between 2005 and 2017: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for pregnancy among HIV-positive adolescents in a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya.

METHODS

The Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) program is a partnership between Moi University, Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital and a consortium of 11 North American academic institutions. AMPATH currently provides care to 85,000 HIV-positive individuals in western Kenya. Included in this analysis were adolescents aged 10-19 enrolled in AMPATH between January 2005 and February 2017. Socio-demographic, behavioural, and clinical data at baseline and time-updated antiretroviral treatment (ART) data were extracted from the electronic medical records and summarized using descriptive statistics. Follow up time was defined as time of inclusion in the cohort until the date of first pregnancy or age 20, loss to follow up, death, or administrative censoring. Adolescent pregnancy rates and associated risk factors were determined.

RESULTS

There were 8565 adolescents eligible for analysis. Median age at enrolment in HIV care was 14.0 years. Only 17.7% had electricity at home and 14.4% had piped water, both indicators of a high level of poverty. 12.9% (1104) were pregnant at study inclusion. Of those not pregnant at enrolment, 5.6% (448) became pregnant at least once during follow-up. Another 1.0% (78) were pregnant at inclusion and became pregnant again during follow-up. The overall pregnancy incidence rate was 21.9 per 1000 woman years or 55.8 pregnancies per 1000 women. Between 2005 and 2017, pregnancy rates have decreased. Adolescents who became pregnant in follow-up were more likely to be older, to be married or living with a partner and to have at least one child already and less likely to be using family planning.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable number of these HIV-positive adolescents presented at enrolment into HIV care as pregnant and many became pregnant as adolescents during follow-up. Pregnancy rates remain high but have decreased from 2005 to 2017. Adolescent-focused sexual and reproductive health and ante/postnatal care programs may have the potential to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes as well as further decrease pregnancy rates in this high-risk group.

Lower rates of ART initiation and decreased retention among ART-naïve patients who consume alcohol enrolling in HIV care and treatment programs in Kenya and Uganda

Objectives

Almost 13 million people are estimated to be on antiretroviral therapy in Eastern and Southern Africa, and their disease course and program effectiveness could be significantly affected by the concurrent use of alcohol. Screening for alcohol use may be important to assess the prevalence of alcohol consumption and its impact on patient and programmatic outcomes.

Methods

As part of this observational study, data on patient characteristics and alcohol consumption were collected on a cohort of 765 adult patients enrolling in HIV care in East Africa. Alcohol consumption was assessed with the AUDIT questionnaire at enrollment. Subjects were classified as consuming any alcohol (AUDIT score >0), hazardous drinkers (AUDIT score ≥8) and hyper drinkers (AUDIT score ≥16). The effects of alcohol consumption on retention in care, death and delays in antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation were assessed through competing risk (Fine & Gray) models.

Results

Of all study participants, 41.6% consumed alcohol, 26.7% were classified as hazardous drinkers, and 16.0% as hyper drinkers. Depending on alcohol consumption classification, men were 3–4 times more likely to consume alcohol compared to women. Hazardous drinkers (median age 32.8 years) and hyper drinkers (32.7 years) were slightly older compared to non-hazardous drinkers (30.7 years) and non-hyper drinkers (30.8 years), (p-values = 0.014 and 0.053 respectively). Median CD4 at enrollment was 330 cells/μl and 16% were classified World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4. There was no association between alcohol consumption and CD4 count or WHO stage at enrollment. Alcohol consumption was associated with significantly lower probability of ART initiation (adjusted sub-distribution hazard ratio aSHR = 0.77 between alcohol consumers versus non-consumers; p-value = 0.008), and higher patient non-retention in care (aSHR = 1.77, p-value = 0.023).

Discussion

Alcohol consumption is associated with significant delays in ART initiation and reduced retention in care for patients enrolling in HIV care and treatment programs in East Africa. Consequently, interventions that target alcohol consumption may have a significant impact on the HIV care cascade.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of JC Virus DNA in Plasma in Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy

Background

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) is a severe demyelinating disease caused by the polyomavirus JC (John Cunningham; JCV) that affects patients with impaired immune systems. While JCV-DNA detection in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is diagnostic of PML, the clinical significance of plasma JCV-DNA is uncertain.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed plasma samples from PML patients that were drawn close to disease onset and from controls without PML. In PML patients, we compared plasma JCV-DNA detection and levels to clinical and laboratory parameters, and patient survival.

Results

JCV-DNA was detected in plasma of 49/103 (48%) patients with PML (20/24, 83%, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] negative; 29/79, 37%, HIV-positive) and of 4/144 (3%) controls without PML (0/95 HIV-negative; 4/49, 8%, HIV-positive), yielding a diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of 48% and 97% (83% and 100% in HIV-negative; 37% and 92% in HIV-positive), respectively. Among 16 PML patients with undetectable CSF JCV-DNA, 4 (25%) had detectable plasma JCV-DNA. Plasma JCV-DNA levels were independently associated with CSF levels (P < .0001) and previous corticosteroid treatment (P = .012). Higher plasma JCV-DNA levels were associated with disease progression in HIV-negative patients (P = .005); in HIV-positive patients, there was an increased risk of progression only in those treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART; P < .0001).

Conclusions

Testing JCV-DNA in plasma might complement PML diagnosis, especially when CSF is unavailable or JCV-DNA not detectable in CSF. In addition, JCV-DNA plasma levels could be useful as a marker of disease progression in both HIV-negative and cART-treated, HIV-positive PML patients.

Implementation of "Treat-all" at adult HIV care and treatment sites in the Global IeDEA Consortium: results from the Site Assessment Survey

INTRODUCTION

Since 2015, the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that all people living with HIV (PLHIV) initiate antiretroviral treatment (ART), irrespective of CD4+ count or clinical stage. National adoption of universal treatment has accelerated since WHO's 2015 "Treat All" recommendation; however, little is known about the translation of this guidance into practice. This study aimed to assess the status of Treat All implementation across regions, countries, and levels of the health care delivery system.

METHODS

Between June and December 2017, 201/221 (91%) adult HIV treatment sites that participate in the global IeDEA research consortium completed a survey on capacity and practices related to HIV care. Located in 41 countries across seven geographic regions, sites provided information on the status and timing of site-level introduction of Treat All, as well as site-level practices related to ART initiation.

RESULTS

Almost all sites (93%) reported that they had begun implementing Treat All, and there were no statistically significant differences in site-level Treat All introduction by health facility type, urban/rural location, sector (public/private) or country income level. The median time between national policy adoption and site-level introduction was one month. In countries where Treat All was not yet adopted in national guidelines, 69% of sites reported initiating all patients on ART, regardless of clinical criteria, and these sites had been implementing Treat All for a median period of seven months at the time of the survey. The majority of sites (77%) reported typically initiating patients on ART within 14 days of confirming diagnosis, with 60% to 62% of sites implementing Treat All in East, Southern and West Africa reporting same-day ART initiation for most patients.

CONCLUSIONS

By mid- to late-2017, the Treat All strategy was the standard of care at almost all IeDEA sites, including rural, primary-level health facilities in low-resource settings. While further assessments of site-level capacity to provide high-quality HIV care under Treat All and to support sustained viral suppression after ART initiation are needed, the widespread introduction of Treat All at the service delivery level is a critical step towards global targets for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.

Adolescent pregnancy at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation: a critical barrier to retention on ART

INTRODUCTION

Adolescence and pregnancy are potential risk factors for loss to follow-up (LTFU) while on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared adolescent and adult LTFU after ART initiation to quantify the impact of age, pregnancy, and site-level factors on LTFU.

METHODS

We used routine clinical data for patients initiating ART as young adolescents (YA; 10 to 14 years), older adolescents (OA; 15 to 19 years) and adults (≥20 years) from 2000 to 2014 at 52 health facilities affiliated with the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) East Africa collaboration. We estimated cumulative incidence (95% confidence interval, CI) of LTFU (no clinic visit for ≥6 months after ART initiation) and identified patient and site-level correlates of LTFU, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models for all patients as well as individual age groups.

RESULTS

A total of 138,387 patients initiated ART, including 2496 YA, 2955 OA and 132,936 adults. Of these, 55%, 78% and 66%, respectively, were female and 0.7% of YA, 22.3% of OA and 8.3% of adults were pregnant at ART initiation. Cumulative incidence of LTFU at five years was 26.6% (24.6 to 28.6) among YA, 44.1% (41.8 to 46.3) among OA and 29.3% (29.1 to 29.6) among adults. Overall, compared to adults, the adjusted hazard ratio, aHR, (95% CI) of LTFU for OA was 1.54 (1.41 to 1.68) and 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) for YA. Compared to males, pregnant females had higher hazard of LTFU, aHR 1.20 (1.14 to 1.27), and nonpregnant women had lower hazard aHR 0.90 (0.88 to 0.93). LTFU hazard among the OA was primarily driven by both pregnant and nonpregnant females, aHR 2.42 (1.98 to 2.95) and 1.51 (1.27 to 1.80), respectively, compared to men. The LTFU hazard ratio varied by IeDEA program. Site-level factors associated with overall lower LTFU hazard included receiving care in tertiary versus primary-care clinics aHR 0.61 (0.56 to 0.67), integrated adult and adolescent services and food ration provision aHR 0.93 (0.89 to 0.97) versus nonintegrated clinics with food ration provision, having patient support groups aHR 0.77 (0.66 to 0.90) and group adherence counselling aHR 0.61 (0.57 to 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

Older adolescents experienced higher risk of LTFU compared to YA and adults. Interventions to prevent LTFU among older adolescents are critically needed, particularly for female and/or pregnant adolescents.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy in a clinical cohort of HIV-infected children in East Africa

OBJECTIVE

To describe antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and associated factors for a large HIV-infected pediatric cohort followed by sites of the East Africa International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) consortium.

METHODS

This study utilized prospectively collected clinical data from HIV-infected children less than 13 years of age who initiated ART within 4 clinical care programs (with 26 clinical sites) in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania and were followed for up to 6 years. Programs used one of 3 adherence measures, including 7-day quantitative recall, 7-day categorical recall, and clinician pill assessments. We fit a hierarchical, three-level, logistic-regression model to examine adherence, with observations nested within patient, and patients within the 26 sites providing pediatric HIV data to this analysis.

RESULTS

In East Africa, 3,304 children, 52.0% male, were enrolled in care and were subsequently observed for a median of 92 weeks (inter-quartile range [IQR] 50.3-145.0 weeks). Median age at ART initiation was 5.5 years ([IQR] 3.0-8.5 years). "Good" adherence, as reported by each clinic's measures, was extremely high, remaining on average above 90% throughout all years of follow-up. Longer time on ART was associated with higher adherence (adjusted Odds Ratio-aOR-per log-transformed week on ART: 1.095, 95% Confidence Interval-CI-[1.052-1.150].) Patients enrolled in higher-volume programs exhibited higher rates of clinician-assessed adherence (aOR per log-500 patients: 1.174, 95% CI [1.108-1.245]). Significant site-level variability in reported adherence was observed (0.28), with even higher variability among patients (0.71). In a sub-analysis, being an orphan at the start of ART was strongly associated with lower ART adherence rates (aOR: 0.919, 95% CI [0.864-0.976]).

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported adherence remained high over a median of 1.8 years in HIV care, but varied according to patient-level and site-level factors. Consistent adherence monitoring with validated measures and attention to vulnerable groups is recommended.

Increased prevalence of pregnancy and comparative risk of program attrition among individuals starting HIV treatment in East Africa

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization now recommends initiating all pregnant women on life-long antiretroviral therapy (ART), yet there is limited information about the characteristics and program outcomes of pregnant women already on ART in Africa. Our hypothesis was that pregnant women comprised an increasing proportion of those starting ART, and that sub-groups of these women were at higher risk for program attrition.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS- East Africa (IeDEA-EA) to conduct a retrospective cohort study including HIV care and treatment programs in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The cohort consecutively included HIV-infected individuals 13 years or older starting ART 2004-2014. We examined trends over time in the proportion pregnant, their characteristics and program attrition rates compared to others initiating and already receiving ART. 156,474 HIV-infected individuals (67.0% women) started ART. The proportion of individuals starting ART who were pregnant women rose from 5.3% in 2004 to 12.2% in 2014. Mean CD4 cell counts at ART initiation, weighted for annual program size, increased from 2004 to 2014, led by non-pregnant women (annual increase 20 cells/mm3) and men (17 cells/mm3 annually), with lower rates of change in pregnant women (10 cells/mm3 per year) (p<0.0001). There was no significant difference in the cumulative incidence of program attrition at 6 months among pregnant women starting ART and non-pregnant women. However, healthy pregnant women starting ART (WHO stage 1/2) had a higher rate of attrition rate (9.6%), compared with healthy non-pregnant women (6.5%); in contrast among women with WHO stage 3/4 disease, pregnant women had lower attrition (8.4%) than non-pregnant women (14.4%). Among women who initiated ART when healthy and remained in care for six months, subsequent six-month attrition was slightly higher among pregnant women at ART start (3.5%) compared to those who were not pregnant (2.4%), (absolute difference 1.1%, 95% CI 0.7%-1.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnant women comprise an increasing proportion of those initiating ART in Africa, and pregnant women starting ART while healthy are at higher risk for program attrition than non-pregnant women. As ART programs further expand access to healthier pregnant women, further studies are needed to better understand the drivers of loss among this high risk group of women to optimize retention.

A state transition framework for patient-level modeling of engagement and retention in HIV care using longitudinal cohort data

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care cascade is a conceptual model used to outline the benchmarks that reflects effectiveness of HIV care in the whole HIV care continuum. The models can be used to identify barriers contributing to poor outcomes along each benchmark in the cascade such as disengagement from care or death. Recently, the HIV care cascade has been widely applied to monitor progress towards HIV prevention and care goals in an attempt to develop strategies to improve health outcomes along the care continuum. Yet, there are challenges in quantifying successes and gaps in HIV care using the cascade models that are partly due to the lack of analytic approaches. The availability of large cohort data presents an opportunity to develop a coherent statistical framework for analysis of the HIV care cascade. Motivated by data from the Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare, which has provided HIV care to nearly 200,000 individuals in Western Kenya since 2001, we developed a state transition framework that can characterize patient-level movements through the multiple stages of the HIV care cascade. We describe how to transform large observational data into an analyzable format. We then illustrate the state transition framework via multistate modeling to quantify dynamics in retention aspects of care. The proposed modeling approach identifies the transition probabilities of moving through each stage in the care cascade. In addition, this approach allows regression-based estimation to characterize effects of (time-varying) predictors of within and between state transitions such as retention, disengagement, re-entry into care, transfer-out, and mortality. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Observational Study of the Effect of Patient Outreach on Return to Care: The Earlier the Better

BACKGROUND

The burden of HIV remains heaviest in resource-limited settings, where problems of losses to care, silent transfers, gaps in care, and incomplete mortality ascertainment have been recognized.

METHODS

Patients in care at Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) clinics from 2001-2011 were included in this retrospective observational study. Patients missing an appointment were traced by trained staff; those found alive were counseled to return to care (RTC). Relative hazards of RTC were estimated among those having a true gap: missing a clinic appointment and confirmed as neither dead nor receiving care elsewhere. Sample-based multiple imputation accounted for missing vital status.

RESULTS

Among 34,522 patients lost to clinic, 15,331 (44.4%) had a true gap per outreach, 2754 (8.0%) were deceased, and 837 (2.4%) had documented transfers. Of 15,600 (45.2%) remaining without active ascertainment, 8762 (56.2%) with later RTC were assumed to have a true gap. Adjusted cause-specific hazard ratios (aHRs) showed early outreach (a ≤8-day window, defined by grid-search approach) had twice the hazard for RTC vs. those without (aHR = 2.06; P < 0.001). HRs for RTC were lower the later the outreach effort after disengagement (aHR = 0.86 per unit increase in time; P < 0.001). Older age, female sex (vs. male), antiretroviral therapy use (vs. none), and HIV status disclosure (vs. none) were also associated with greater likelihood of RTC, and higher enrollment CD4 count with lower likelihood of RTC.

CONCLUSION

Patient outreach efforts have a positive impact on patient RTC, regardless of when undertaken, but particularly soon after the patient misses an appointment.

Comprehensiveness of HIV care provided at global HIV treatment sites in the IeDEA consortium: 2009 and 2014

INTRODUCTION

An important determinant of the effectiveness of HIV treatment programs is the capacity of sites to implement recommended services and identify systematic changes needed to ensure that invested resources translate into improved patient outcomes. We conducted a survey in 2014 of HIV care and treatment sites in the seven regions of the International epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortium to evaluate facility characteristics, HIV prevention, care and treatment services provided, laboratory capacity, and trends in the comprehensiveness of care compared to data obtained in the 2009 baseline survey.

METHODS

Clinical staff from 262 treatment sites in 45 countries in IeDEA completed a site survey from September 2014 to January 2015, including Asia-Pacific with Australia (n = 50), Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 11), North America (n = 45), Central Africa (n = 17), East Africa (n = 36), Southern Africa (n = 87), and West Africa (n = 16). For the 55 sites with complete data from both the 2009 and 2014 survey, we evaluated change in comprehensiveness of care.

RESULTS

The majority of the 262 sites (61%) offered seven essential services (ART adherence, nutritional support, PMTCT, CD4+ cell count testing, tuberculosis screening, HIV prevention, and outreach). Sites that were publicly funded (64%), cared for adults and children (68%), low or middle Human Development Index (HDI) rank (68%, 68%), and received PEPFAR support (71%) were most often fully comprehensive. CD4+ cell count testing was universally available (98%) but only 62% of clinics offered it onsite. Approximately two-thirds (69%) of sites reported routine viral load testing (44-100%), with 39% having it onsite. Laboratory capacity to monitor antiretroviral-related toxicity and diagnose opportunistic infections varied widely by testing modality and region. In the subgroup of 55 sites with two surveys, comprehensiveness of services provided significantly increased across all regions from 2009 to 2014 (5.7 to 6.5, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The availability of viral load monitoring remains suboptimal and should be a focus for site capacity, particularly in East and Southern Africa, where the majority of those initiating on ART reside. However, the comprehensiveness of care provided increased over the past 5 years and was related to type of funding received (publicly funded and PEPFAR supported).

Evaluating the Impact of a HIV Low-Risk Express Care Task-Shifting Program: A Case Study of the Targeted Learning Roadmap

In conducting studies on an exposure of interest, a systematic roadmap should be applied for translating causal questions into statistical analyses and interpreting the results. In this paper we describe an application of one such roadmap applied to estimating the joint effect of both time to availability of a nurse-based triage system (low risk express care (LREC)) and individual enrollment in the program among HIV patients in East Africa. Our study population is comprised of 16,513 subjects found eligible for this task-shifting program within 15 clinics in Kenya between 2006 and 2009, with each clinic starting the LREC program between 2007 and 2008. After discretizing follow-up into 90-day time intervals, we targeted the population mean counterfactual outcome (i. e. counterfactual probability of either dying or being lost to follow up) at up to 450 days after initial LREC eligibility under three fixed treatment interventions. These were (i) under no program availability during the entire follow-up, (ii) under immediate program availability at initial eligibility, but non-enrollment during the entire follow-up, and (iii) under immediate program availability and enrollment at initial eligibility. We further estimated the controlled direct effect of immediate program availability compared to no program availability, under a hypothetical intervention to prevent individual enrollment in the program. Targeted minimum loss-based estimation was used to estimate the mean outcome, while Super Learning was implemented to estimate the required nuisance parameters. Analyses were conducted with the ltmle R package; analysis code is available at an online repository as an R package. Results showed that at 450 days, the probability of in-care survival for subjects with immediate availability and enrollment was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.95) and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.87) for subjects with immediate availability never enrolling. For subjects without LREC availability, it was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90, 0.92). Immediate program availability without individual enrollment, compared to no program availability, was estimated to slightly albeit significantly decrease survival by 4% (95% CI 0.03,0.06, p<0.01). Immediately availability and enrollment resulted in a 7 % higher in-care survival compared to immediate availability with non-enrollment after 450 days (95% CI-0.08,-0.05, p<0.01). The results are consistent with a fairly small impact of both availability and enrollment in the LREC program on incare survival.

Active tuberculosis is associated with worse clinical outcomes in HIV-infected African patients on antiretroviral therapy

Objective

This cohort study utilized data from a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya to describe the impact of active tuberculosis (TB) on clinical outcomes among African patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Design

We included all patients initiating ART between March 2004 and November 2007. Clinical (signs and symptoms), radiological (chest radiographs) and laboratory (mycobacterial smears, culture and tissue histology) criteria were used to record the diagnosis of TB disease in the program’s electronic medical record system.

Methods

We assessed the impact of TB disease on mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and incident AIDS-defining events (ADEs) through Cox models and CD4 cell and weight response to ART by non-linear mixed models.

Results

We studied 21,242 patients initiating ART–5,186 (24%) with TB; 62% female; median age 37 years. There were proportionately more men in the active TB (46%) than in the non-TB (35%) group. Adjusting for baseline HIV-disease severity, TB patients were more likely to die (hazard ratio – HR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.18–1.47) or have incident ADEs (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.19–1.45). They had lower median CD4 cell counts (77 versus 109), weight (52.5 versus 55.0 kg) and higher ADE risk at baseline (CD4-adjusted odds ratio = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.31–1.85). ART adherence was similarly good in both groups. Adjusting for gender and baseline CD4 cell count, TB patients experienced virtually identical rise in CD4 counts after ART initiation as those without. However, the overall CD4 count at one year was lower among patients with TB (251 versus 269 cells/µl).

Conclusions

Clinically detected TB disease is associated with greater mortality and morbidity despite salutary response to ART. Data suggest that identifying HIV patients co-infected with TB earlier in the HIV-disease trajectory may not fully address TB-related morbidity and mortality.

Trends in the clinical characteristics of HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania between 2002 and 2009

Background

East Africa has experienced a rapid expansion in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected patients. Regionally representative socio-demographic, laboratory and clinical characteristics of patients accessing ART over time and across sites have not been well described.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of characteristics of HIV-infected adults initiating ART between 2002 and 2009 in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania and in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Consortium. Characteristics associated with advanced disease (defined as either a CD4 cell count level of less than 50 cells/mm³ or a WHO Stage 4 condition) at the time of ART initiation and use of stavudine (D4T) or nevirapine (NVP) were identified using a log-link Poisson model with robust standard errors.

Results

Among 48, 658 patients (69% from Kenya, 22% from Uganda and 9% from Tanzania) accessing ART at 30 clinic sites, the median age at the time of ART initiation was 37 years (IQR: 31-43) and 65% were women. Pre-therapy CD4 counts rose from 87 cells/mm³ (IQR: 26-161) in 2002-03 to 154 cells/mm³ (IQR: 71-233) in 2008-09 (p < 0.001). Accessing ART at advanced disease peaked at 35% in 2005-06 and fell to 27% in 2008-09. D4T use in the initial regimen fell from a peak of 88% in 2004-05 to 59% in 2008-09, and a greater extent of decline was observed in Uganda than in Kenya and Tanzania. Self-pay for ART peaked at 18% in 2003, but fell to less than 1% by 2005. In multivariable analyses, accessing ART at advanced immunosuppression was associated with male sex, women without a history of treatment for prevention of mother to child transmission (both as compared with women with such a history) and younger age after adjusting for year of ART initiation and country of residence. Receipt of D4T in the initial regimen was associated with female sex, earlier year of ART initiation, higher WHO stage, and lower CD4 levels at ART initiation and the absence of co-prevalent tuberculosis.

Conclusions

Public health ART services in east Africa have improved over time, but the fraction of patients accessing ART with advanced immunosuppression is still high, men consistently access ART with more advanced disease, and D4T continues to be common in most settings. Strategies to facilitate access to ART, overcome barriers among men and reduce D4T use are needed.

Impact of the Kenya post-election crisis on clinic attendance and medication adherence for HIV-infected children in western Kenya

Background

Kenya experienced a political and humanitarian crisis following presidential elections on 27 December 2007. Over 1,200 people were killed and 300,000 displaced, with disproportionate violence in western Kenya. We sought to describe the immediate impact of this conflict on return to clinic and medication adherence for HIV-infected children cared for within the USAID-Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare (AMPATH) in western Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a mixed methods analysis that included a retrospective cohort analysis, as well as key informant interviews with pediatric healthcare providers. Eligible patients were HIV-infected children, less than 14 years of age, seen in the AMPATH HIV clinic system between 26 October 2007 and 25 December 2007. We extracted demographic and clinical data, generating descriptive statistics for pre- and post-conflict antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and post-election return to clinic for this cohort. ART adherence was derived from caregiver-report of taking all ART doses in past 7 days. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess factors associated with not returning to clinic. Interview dialogue from was analyzed using constant comparison, progressive coding and triangulation.

Results

Between 26 October 2007 and 25 December 2007, 2,585 HIV-infected children (including 1,642 on ART) were seen. During 26 December 2007 to 15 April 2008, 93% (N = 2,398) returned to care. At their first visit after the election, 95% of children on ART (N = 1,408) reported perfect ART adherence, a significant drop from 98% pre-election (p < 0.001). Children on ART were significantly more likely to return to clinic than those not on ART. Members of tribes targeted by violence and members of minority tribes were less likely to return. In qualitative analysis of 9 key informant interviews, prominent barriers to return to clinic and adherence included concerns for personal safety, shortages of resources, hanging priorities, and hopelessness.

Conclusion

During a period of humanitarian crisis, the vulnerable, HIV-infected pediatric population had disruptions in clinical care and in medication adherence, putting children at risk for viral resistance and increased morbidity. However, unique program strengths may have minimized these disruptions.

Sampling-based approaches to improve estimation of mortality among patient dropouts: experience from a large PEPFAR-funded program in Western Kenya

Background

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of HIV care and treatment programs is impacted by losses to follow-up (LTFU) in the patient population. The severity of this effect is undeniable but its extent unknown. Tracing all lost patients addresses this but census methods are not feasible in programs involving rapid scale-up of HIV treatment in the developing world. Sampling-based approaches and statistical adjustment are the only scaleable methods permitting accurate estimation of M&E indices.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a large antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in western Kenya, we assessed the impact of LTFU on estimating patient mortality among 8,977 adult clients of whom, 3,624 were LTFU. Overall, dropouts were more likely male (36.8% versus 33.7%; p = 0.003), and younger than non-dropouts (35.3 versus 35.7 years old; p = 0.020), with lower median CD4 count at enrollment (160 versus 189 cells/ml; p<0.001) and WHO stage 3–4 disease (47.5% versus 41.1%; p<0.001). Urban clinic clients were 75.0% of non-dropouts but 70.3% of dropouts (p<0.001). Of the 3,624 dropouts, 1,143 were sought and 621 had their vital status ascertained. Statistical techniques were used to adjust mortality estimates based on information obtained from located LTFU patients. Observed mortality estimates one year after enrollment were 1.7% (95% CI 1.3%–2.0%), revised to 2.8% (2.3%–3.1%) when deaths discovered through outreach were added and adjusted to 9.2% (7.8%–10.6%) and 9.9% (8.4%–11.5%) through statistical modeling depending on the method used. The estimates 12 months after ART initiation were 1.7% (1.3%–2.2%), 3.4% (2.9%–4.0%), 10.5% (8.7%–12.3%) and 10.7% (8.9%–12.6%) respectively.

Conclusions/Significance Abstract

Assessment of the impact of LTFU is critical in program M&E as estimated mortality based on passive monitoring may underestimate true mortality by up to 80%. This bias can be ameliorated by tracing a sample of dropouts and statistically adjust the mortality estimates to properly evaluate and guide large HIV care and treatment programs.

The need for double-sampling designs in survival studies: an application to monitor PEPFAR

In 2007, there were 33.2 million people around the world living with HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS/WHO, 2007). In May 2003, the U.S. President announced a global program, known as the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), to address this epidemic. We seek to estimate patient mortality in PEPFAR in an effort to monitor and evaluate this program. This effort, however, is hampered by loss to follow-up that occurs at very high rates. As a consequence, standard survival data and analysis on observed nondropout data are generally biased, and provide no objective evidence to correct the potential bias. In this article, we apply double-sampling designs and methodology to PEPFAR data, and we obtain substantially different and more plausible estimates compared with standard methods (1-year mortality estimate of 9.6% compared to 1.7%). The results indicate that a double-sampling design is critical in providing objective evidence of possible nonignorable dropout and, thus, in obtaining accurate data in PEPFAR. Moreover, we show the need for appropriate analysis methods coupled with double-sampling designs.

Predicting poor outcome from acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty about the outcome of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding often results in a longer-than-necessary hospital stay.

METHODS

We derived and internally validated clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to predict outcome from upper gastrointestinal bleeding. This multisite, prospective cohort study involved consecutive patients admitted for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Multivariate logistic regression was used to derive CPRs on two thirds of the cohort (derivation set) that predicted bleeding-specific outcomes (rebleeding, need for urgent surgery, or hospital death [poor outcome 1]) and bleeding-specific outcomes plus new or worsening comorbidity (poor outcome 2). Both CPRs were then tested on the remaining third of the cohort (validation set).

RESULTS

A total of 391 individuals (99% men; mean age, 63.4 years) were enrolled, of which 4.6% rebled and 3.1% died. Independent predictors of poor outcome 1 were APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II score of 11 or greater, esophageal varices, and stigmata of recent hemorrhage. Predictors of poor outcome 2 were these 3 factors plus unstable comorbidity on admission. Of patients with no risk factors, only 1 (1.1%) of 92 experienced poor outcome 1 and only 6 (6.2%) of 97 experienced poor outcome 2. Risks in the validation set were comparable. The CPRs identified 37.8% and 32.2% of patients in the derivation and validation sets, respectively, who were eligible for a shorter hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients admitted with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding were unlikely to have a poor outcome if these risk factors were absent. These CPRs might make hospital management more efficient by identifying low-risk patients for whom early hospital discharge is possible.

Risk factors for incident Alzheimer's disease in African Americans and Yoruba

INTRODUCTION

The incidence rate of Alzheimer's disease (AD) was found to be 2 times lower in Yoruba than in African Americans. This study was aimed at identifying the factors associated with increased risk of incident AD in the two communities.

METHODOLOGY

A two-stage design with initial screening using the CSI'D followed by neuropsychological test battery, relations' interview and physician assessment in a sub-sample.NINCDS-ADRDA criteria were met for AD. The risk factor variables assessed included demographic, lifestyle, medical and family history items.

RESULTS

In the Yoruba, AD was associated with age (OR = 1.07) and female gender (OR = 2.93). In African Americans, age (OR = 1.09) and rural living (OR = 2.08) were the significant risk factors, while alcohol was protective (OR = 0.49).

DISCUSSION

Age was a significant risk factor for AD at both sites. The higher risk of incident AD in the Yoruba female, and in African Americans who resided in rural areas in childhood were similar with the prevalence cases. Alcohol emerged a protective factor in African Americans. More studies are required, including biological measurements, to adequately explain the differences in rates.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and electroencephalographic (EEG) findings in a cohort of normal children with newly diagnosed seizures

In the initial assessment of children with new-onset seizures, the suggestion that electroencephalography (EEG) should be standard and that magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) should be optional has been questioned. The purposes of this study were to (1) describe the frequency of EEG and MRI abnormalities and (2) explore relationships between MRI and EEG findings to determine their relevance in the assessment of children with new-onset seizures who are otherwise developing normally. As part of an ongoing, prospective study of children with new-onset seizures, we studied 181 children (90 girls and 91 boys). Children were entered into the study within 3 months of their first-recognized seizure. The association between EEG and MRI abnormalities was explored using a chi-square test. Abnormal MRI findings were found in 32.6% (n = 59) of the sample. The EEG and MRI results agreed with respect to classification into normal or abnormal in 37% (n = 67). Of the 50 children with a normal EEG, however, 21 (42%) were found to have an abnormal MRI. We found an unexpectedly high frequency of imaging abnormalities in our sample of otherwise normal children, although the significance of these findings is not clear. Follow-up of these patients will help us interpret the importance of the abnormalities. Despite our relatively small sample, however, our findings indicate that a normal EEG does not reliably predict a normal MRI in children with first seizures.

Risk of mortality for dementia in a developing country: the Yoruba in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist on the impact of dementia in developing nations, including its association with mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between dementia and five-year mortality on a community dwelling elderly Yoruba population in the developing country of Nigeria and to compare those results with those from an elderly African-American community in Indianapolis.

METHODS

A two-phase design was used to ascertain dementia status in two sites. In the first phase, the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSI-D) was administered. In the second phase, subjects were sampled for the clinical assessment according to their CSI-D performance category. Proportional hazards regression was used to assess the relationship between mortality and cognitive status at both sites after adjusting for demographics and chronic disease conditions.

RESULTS

For the entire screened population, poor and intermediate performance on the CSI-D is associated with increased mortality at both sites; however the effect of CSI-D performance did not significantly differ between the two sites. For the clinically assessed sample, dementia was significantly associated with increased mortality at both sites (Ibadan RR = 2.83, Indianapolis RR = 2.05), but the effect was not significantly different across the two sites.

CONCLUSION

Dementia resulted in an increased risk of mortality for Yoruba of a magnitude similar to African-Americans suggesting that the impact of dementia on mortality risk may be similar for developing and developed countries.

Data management in a longitudinal cross-cultural study

The Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project compares the rates of dementia at two sites, one in the U.S.A. and one in Nigeria. This paper concentrates on the data management issues in this longitudinal cross-cultural study. Approximately 2500 elderly people were recruited at each site, and continue to be re-assessed every two years. All the data are collected on paper and then entered into a FoxPro relational database. Most of the data management, including data cleaning, is done in Indianapolis. The design of the data collection forms is particularly important in a cross-cultural study, with the questions and the coding of responses clear and simple. Since Nigeria and the U.S.A. have different levels of technological development, the computer hardware and software were chosen to be suitable for use at either site. Exchange visits have been needed to address data management issues and resolve unexpected problems. The data management on cross-cultural studies can be handled successfully, given careful planning.

Relationship of age, education, and occupation with dementia among a community-based sample of African Americans

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between age, education, and occupation with dementia among African Americans.

DESIGN

Community-based survey to identify subjects with and without evidence of cognitive impairment and subsequent diagnostic evaluation of a stratified sample of these subjects using formal diagnostic criteria for dementia.

SETTING

Urban neighborhoods in Indianapolis, Ind.

SUBJECTS

A random sample of 2212 African Americans aged 65 years and older residing in 29 contiguous census tracts.

MEASUREMENTS

Subjects's scores on the Community Screening Instrument for Dementia (CSI-D), formal diagnostic clinical assessments for dementia, years of education, rural residence, primary occupation, self-reported disease, and alcohol and smoking history. Caseness was defined by four separate criteria: (1) cognitive impairment as defined by the subject's performance on the CSI-D cognitive scale; (2) cognitive impairment as defined by the total CSI-D score that included a relative's assessment of the subject's functional abilities; (3) dementia as defined by explicit diagnostic criteria; and (4) possible or probable Alzheimer's disease as defined by explicit diagnostic criteria.

RESULTS

The mean age was 74 years (age range, 65 to 100 years), 65% of subjects were women, the mean education was 9.6 years (age range, 0 to 16 years), 98% of the subjects were literate, and 32% reported living in a rural area until age 19 years. Service, domestic, and production occupations accounted for 55.2% of the subjects' primary occupations with a mean of 25.8 years (range, 1 to 75 years) in the primary occupation. Years of education, rural residence to age 60 years, and primary occupation were highly correlated. Caseness defined by any of the four criteria was associated with functional impairment, but the frequency of impairment increased with increasing diagnostic specificity. Age, education, and rural residence to age 60 years were significantly independently associated with caseness for cognitive impairment, dementia, and Alzheimer's type dementia. White-collar occupation was independently associated only with caseness for cognitive impairment. History of stroke was associated with caseness for cognitive impairment and dementia but not Alzheimer's disease, while history of smoking was negatively correlated with Alzheimer's disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Education was independently associated with cognitive impairment and dementia among a representative community-based sample of African Americans and the association remains significant across a variety of sensitivity analyses designed to control for measurement and confounding biases. The potential protective role of education against the development of dementia among African Americans deserves further evaluation.

Prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in two communities: Nigerian Africans and African Americans

OBJECTIVE

This article reports on a prevalence study of dementia and Alzheimer's disease among two groups of subjects with the same ethnic background but widely differing environments.

METHOD

The study was conducted among residents aged 65 years and older in two communities: Yorubas (N = 2,494) living in Ibadan, Nigeria, and African Americans (N = 2,212 in the community and N = 106 in nursing homes) living in Indianapolis, Indiana. The study design consisted of a screening stage followed by a clinical assessment stage for selected subjects on the basis of their performance on the screening tests.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted prevalence rates of dementia (2.29%) and Alzheimer's disease (1.41%) in the Ibadan sample were significantly lower than those in the Indianapolis sample, both in the community-dwelling subjects alone (4.82% and 3.69%, respectively) and in the combined nursing home and community samples (8.24% and 6.24%, respectively). The prevalence rates of dementia and Alzheimer's disease increased consistently with advancing age in both study groups.

CONCLUSIONS

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study, using the same research method at the two sites, to report significant differences in rates of dementia and Alzheimer's disease in two different communities with similar ethnic origins.

Longitudinal study of depression and health services use among elderly primary care patients

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence and 9-month incidence of depressive symptoms among a cohort of elderly primary care patients and to determine whether different patterns of depression are associated with different patterns of health services use.

DESIGN

Prospective study of depressive symptoms as measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale and identification of patients' outpatient health services use through an electronic medical record system.

SETTING

An academic primary care group practice at an urban ambulatory care clinic.

PATIENTS/PARTICIPANTS

1711 patients aged 60 and older who completed the CES-D at baseline and 9 months later; 935 of these patients also completed the CES-D at 6 months.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

The prevalence of significant symptoms of depression (CES-D > or = 16) was 17.1% at baseline and 18.8% at 9 months; 26.8% of patients exceeded the threshold on the CES-D either at baseline or 9 months, and the 9-month incidence was 11.7%. Among the patients re-interviewed at both 6 and 9 months, the 6-month incidence was 12%, and the incidence between the 6- and 9-month assessments was 10%. Of the 292 patients with depression at baseline, 140 (47.6%) remained depressed at the 9-month follow-up. Baseline and 6-month CES-D score, in addition to perceived health at 6 months, explained 45% of the variance in the 9-month CES-D score. Patients above the threshold on the CES-D at any time were more likely to rate their health as fair or poor (69.8% vs 43.7%) and more likely to have an emergency room visit (40.4% vs 29.4%). These patients also had 38% more outpatient visits (7.7 vs 5.6) and 61% higher total outpatient charges ($1209 vs $751) than patients who never exceeded the CES-D threshold over the 9-month window (all P values < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Depressive symptoms were frequent and often persistent in this patient population. We identified patterns of oscillating severity of symptoms within individuals but relatively stable incidence and prevalence rates over a 9-month period. Patients who exceeded the threshold on the CES-D at any time during the study had significantly greater health services use and poorer perceived health.

Preoperative needle localization in the breast: utility of local anesthesia

Eighty-nine consecutive patients undergoing needle localization at two facilities were alternately assigned to "local-anesthesia" (n = 46) and "no-local-anesthesia" (n = 43) groups. Those in the local-anesthesia group received 1-2 mL lidocaine hydrochloride 1% subcutaneously at the expected site of insertion of the localizing needle. All patients were asked to rate the level of pain they experienced from the procedure as a whole by using a 10-cm horizontal visual analog pain scale. Data about patient age, menopausal and menstrual status, average daily caffeine intake, and whether the patients considered mammography to be a painful procedure were collected. Patients who did not receive local anesthesia had a lower mean pain score (2.52) than those who did (3.27, P = .18). Premenopausal patients in the second half of their menstrual cycle at the time of the procedure had a significantly higher pain score than those in the first half (3.54 vs. 1.70, P = .05). Patients who considered mammography a painful procedure reported a higher level of pain than those who did not (3.79 vs 2.38, P = .012). There was no relationship between age, caffeine intake, or menopausal status and pain experienced.

A survey of interventional mammography practices

To evaluate the current state of interventional mammography in the United States, surveys were sent to 1,000 randomly selected active members of the American College of Radiology (group 1) and the entire 1991 membership (n = 73) of the Society of Breast Imaging (group 2). Three hundred seventy-one (37%) group 1 and 49 (67%) group 2 responses were received. Some respondents did not answer all questions. Of group 1 respondents, 331 (93%) performed preoperative needle localization and 272 (73%) used a hook wire; 92 (25%), a J wire; and 55 (15%), a needle-dye technique. For group 2 respondents and these techniques, the results were 45 (94%), 32 (65%), eight (16%), and seven (14%), respectively. One hundred ninety-nine (62%) group 1 and 24 (55%) group 2 physicians administered local anesthetic during needle localization. Fifty-six (16%) group 1 and 25 (56%) group 2 physicians performed fine-needle aspiration cytology, as opposed to 11 (3%) and nine (20%) for core-needle biopsy, respectively. Cyst aspiration was performed by 245 (70%) group 1 and 40 (82%) group 2 respondents, galactography by 126 (36%) of group 1 and 30 (61%) of group 2, and pneumocystography by 57 (16%) of group 1 and 23 (48%) of group 2. For most procedures, informed consent was obtained by a minority of radiologists in both groups.

The therapeutic approaches of community based primary care practitioners to osteoarthritis of the hip in an elderly patient

Predispositions to prescribe a pure analgesic, a cyclooxygenase inhibiting nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) or a nonacetylated salicylate for a fictitious, uncomplicated case of osteoarthritis (OA) were surveyed in a sample of 152 community based primary care practitioners who had been characterized with respect to medical education and practice characteristics. Only 2 respondents (1%) prescribed a pure analgesic; 35% prescribed subantiinflammatory doses of cyclooxygenase inhibiting NSAID. The remainder (64%) recommended nonacetylated salicylates and cyclooxygenase inhibiting NSAID in doses large enough to achieve an antiinflammatory effect. Past participants in postgraduate rheumatology electives prescribed more costly regimens than those who had not participated (p = 0.05). When the case was altered to include a history of previous peptic ulcer, 44% chose cyclooxygenase inhibiting NSAID with adjunctive prophylaxis against NSAID induced gastropathy (e.g., misoprostol). When the complication was changed to renal insufficiency, recommendations for sulindac increased 3-fold over those for the uncomplicated case (34 vs 11%), and were most common among more recent medical school graduates and past participants in rheumatology electives (p less than 0.05 for both). The potential effects of educational and practice variables on the therapeutic strategies and costs of OA care in the community merit further systematic study.