Phylogenetic insights into regional HIV transmission

HIV Subtypes and Drug-resistance-associated Mutations in US Blood Donors, 2015-2020

Background

Monitoring genotypes of HIV infections in blood donors may provide insights into infection trends in the general population.

Methods

HIV RNA was extracted from plasma samples of blood donors confirmed as HIV positive by blood screening nucleic acid and antibody tests. HIV genome target regions were amplified using nested real time-polymerase chain reaction followed by next-generation sequencing. Sequences were compared to those in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) database. Sequences were also assessed for drug resistance mutations (DRM) using the Stanford HIV DRM Database.

Results

From available HIV-positive donations collected between 1 September 2015 and 31 December 2020, 563 of 743 (75.8%) were successfully sequenced; 4 were subtype A, 543 subtype B, 5 subtype C, 1 subtype G, 5 circulating recombinant forms (CRF), and 2 were subtype B and D recombinants. Overall, no significant differences between blood donor and available LANL genotypes were found, and the genotypes of newly acquired versus prevalent HIV infections in donors were similar. The proportion of non-B subtypes and CRF remained a small fraction, with no other subtype or CRF representing more than 1% of the total. DRM were identified in 122 (21.6%) samples with protease inhibitor, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor DRMs identified in 4.9%, 4.6% and 14.0% of samples, respectively.

Conclusions

HIV genetic diversity and DRM in blood donors appear representative of circulating HIV infections in the US general population and may provide more information on infection diversity than sequences reported to LANL, particularly for recently transmitted infections.

Phylogenetic prioritization of HIV-1 transmission clusters with viral lineage-level diversification rates

Background and objectives

Public health officials faced with a large number of transmission clusters require a rapid, scalable and unbiased way to prioritize distribution of limited resources to maximize benefits. We hypothesize that transmission cluster prioritization based on phylogenetically derived lineage-level diversification rates will perform as well as or better than commonly used growth-based prioritization measures, without need for historical data or subjective interpretation.

Methodology

9822 HIV pol sequences collected during routine drug resistance genotyping were used alongside simulated sequence data to infer sets of phylogenetic transmission clusters via patristic distance threshold. Prioritized clusters inferred from empirical data were compared to those prioritized by the current public health protocols. Prioritization of simulated clusters was evaluated based on correlation of a given prioritization measure with future cluster growth, as well as the number of direct downstream transmissions from cluster members.

Results

Empirical data suggest diversification rate-based measures perform comparably to growth-based measures in recreating public heath prioritization choices. However, unbiased simulated data reveals phylogenetic diversification rate-based measures perform better in predicting future cluster growth relative to growth-based measures, particularly long-term growth. Diversification rate-based measures also display advantages over growth-based measures in highlighting groups with greater future transmission events compared to random groups of the same size. Furthermore, diversification rate measures were notably more robust to effects of decreased sampling proportion.

Conclusions and implications

Our findings indicate diversification rate-based measures frequently outperform growth-based measures in predicting future cluster growth and offer several additional advantages beneficial to optimizing the public health prioritization process.

Characterization of HIV Risk Behaviors and Clusters Using HIV-Transmission Cluster Engine Among a Cohort of Persons Living with HIV in Washington, DC

Molecular epidemiology (ME) is one tool used to end the HIV epidemic in the United States. We combined clinical and behavioral data with HIV sequence data to identify any overlap in clusters generated from different sequence datasets; to characterize HIV transmission clusters; and to identify correlates of clustering among people living with HIV (PLWH) in Washington, District of Columbia (DC). First, Sanger sequences from DC Cohort participants, a longitudinal HIV study, were combined with next-generation sequences (NGS) from participants in a ME substudy to identify clusters. Next, demographic and self-reported behavioral data from ME substudy participants were used to identify risks of secondary transmission. Finally, we combined NGS from ME substudy participants with Sanger sequences in the DC Molecular HIV Surveillance database to identify clusters. Cluster analyses used HIV-Transmission Cluster Engine to identify linked pairs of sequences (defined as distance ≤1.5%). Twenty-eight clusters of ≥3 sequences (size range: 3-12) representing 108 (3%) participants were identified. None of the five largest clusters (size range: 5-12) included newly diagnosed PLWH. Thirty-four percent of ME substudy participants (n = 213) reported condomless sex during their last sexual encounter and 14% reported a Syphilis diagnosis in the past year. Seven transmission clusters (size range: 2-19) were identified in the final analysis, each containing at least one ME substudy participant. Substudy participants in clusters from the third analysis were present in clusters from the first analysis. Combining HIV sequence, clinical and behavioral data provided insights into HIV transmission that may not be identified using traditional epidemiological methods alone. Specifically, the sexual risk behaviors and STI diagnoses reported in the substudy survey may not have been disclosed during Partner Services activities and the survey data complemented clinical data to fully characterize transmission clusters. These findings can be used to enhance local efforts to interrupt transmission and avert new infections.

Peer-mediated HIV assisted partner services to identify and link to care HIV-positive and HCV-positive people who inject drugs: a cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Targeted, tailored interventions to test high-risk individuals for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are vital to achieving HIV control and HCV microelimination in Africa. Compared with the general population, people who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk of HIV and HCV and are less likely to be tested or successfully treated. Assisted partner services (APS) increases HIV testing among partners of people living with HIV and improves case finding and linkage to care. We describe a study in Kenya examining whether APS can be adapted to find, test and link to HIV care the partners of HIV-positive PWID using a network of community-embedded peer educators (PEs). Our study also identifies HCV-positive partners and uses phylogenetic analysis to determine risk factors for onward transmission of both viruses.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study leverages a network of PEs to identify 1000 HIV-positive PWID for enrolment as index participants. Each index completes a questionnaire and provides names and contact information of all sexual and injecting partners during the previous 3 years. PEs then use a stepwise locator protocol to engage partners in the community and bring them to study sites for enrolment, questionnaire completion and rapid HIV and HCV testing. Outcomes include number and type of partners per index who are mentioned, enrolled, tested, diagnosed with HIV and HCV and linked to care.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Potential index participants are screened for intimate partner violence (IPV) and those at high risk are not eligible to enrol. Those at medium risk are monitored for IPV following enrolment. A community advisory board engages in feedback and discussion between the community and the research team. A safety monitoring board discusses study progress and reviews data, including IPV monitoring data. Dissemination plans include presentations at quarterly Ministry of Health meetings, local and international conferences and publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03447210, Pre-results stage.

Methodological synthesis of Bayesian phylodynamics, HIV-TRACE, and GEE: HIV-1 transmission epidemiology in a racially/ethnically diverse Southern U.S. context

This study introduces an innovative methodological approach to identify potential drivers of structuring HIV-1 transmission clustering patterns between different subpopulations in the culturally and racially/ethnically diverse context of Houston, TX, the largest city in the Southern United States. Using 6332 HIV-1 pol sequences from persons newly diagnosed with HIV during the period 2010–2018, we reconstructed HIV-1 transmission clusters, using the HIV-TRAnsmission Cluster Engine (HIV-TRACE); inferred demographic and risk parameters on HIV-1 transmission dynamics by jointly estimating viral transmission rates across racial/ethnic, age, and transmission risk groups; and modeled the degree of network connectivity by using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Our results indicate that Hispanics/Latinos are most vulnerable to the structure of transmission clusters and serve as a bridge population, acting as recipients of transmissions from Whites (3.0 state changes/year) and from Blacks (2.6 state changes/year) as well as sources of transmissions to Whites (1.8 state changes/year) and to Blacks (1.2 state changes/year). There were high rates of transmission and high network connectivity between younger and older Hispanics/Latinos as well as between younger and older Blacks. Prevention and intervention efforts are needed for transmission clusters that involve younger racial/ethnic minorities, in particular Hispanic/Latino youth, to reduce onward transmission of HIV in Houston.

Analysis of the Driving Factors of Active and Rapid Growth Clusters Among CRF07_BC-Infected Patients in a Developed Area in Eastern China

Background

The purpose of this study was to research the molecular transmission and genetic evolutionary characteristics among CRF07_BC-infected patients in a developed area in Eastern China.

Methods

Plasma samples from newly diagnosed HIV-1-positive patients from 2015–2018 and basic demographic and epidemiological information were obtained. Pol sequences from CRF07_BC-infected patients were selected for phylogenetic, molecular transmission network, and Bayesian evolutionary analyses.

Results

Pol sequences were successfully obtained from 258 samples of CRF07_BC. Phylogenetic analysis revealed 2 distinct lineages: lineage 1 (66.3%, 171/258), primarily from men who have sex with men (MSM) and some heterosexual individuals, and lineage 2 (33.7%, 87/258), primarily from heterosexual individuals. Under an optimal genetic distance of 0.01 substitutions/site, 163 individuals (63.2%, 163/258) formed 23 groups comprising 6 clusters and 17 dyads in the networks. A distinctly large and rapidly growing cluster (C1) containing 105 individuals was identified, in which MSM with ≥4 links had quite a high transmission risk (low educational background, active sexual behavior, low sexual protection awareness, etc.). According to Bayesian analyses, most C1 clades formed from 2005 to 2009, most of which were closely geographically related to CRF07_BC epidemic strains from Anhui province.

Conclusions

Here, we elucidated the local transmission characteristics and epidemic pattern of HIV-1 CRF07_BC, revealing that MSM (especially with ≥4 links) may be a significant driver in the formation of active and rapid growth networks in regional CRF07_BC epidemics. Thus, unique region– and risk group–specific transmission network analysis based on a molecular approach can provide critical and insightful information for more effective intervention strategies to limit future HIV-1 transmission.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Phylodynamics to Detect and Characterize Active Transmission Clusters in North Carolina

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) phylodynamics can be used to monitor epidemic trends and help target prevention through identification and characterization of transmission clusters.

METHODS

We analyzed HIV-1 pol sequences sampled in North Carolina from 1997 to 2014. Putative clusters were identified using maximum-likelihood trees and dated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. Active clusters were defined as clusters including internal nodes from 2009 to 2014. Effective reproductive numbers (Re) were estimated using birth-death models for large clusters that expanded ≥2-fold from 2009 to 2014.

RESULTS

Of 14 921 persons, 7508 (50%) sequences were identified in 2264 clusters. Only 288 (13%) clusters were active from 2009 to 2014; 37 were large (10-36 members). Compared to smaller clusters, large clusters were increasingly populated by men and younger persons; however, nearly 60% included ≥1 women. Clusters with ≥3 members demonstrated assortative mixing by sex, age, and sample region. Of 15 large clusters with ≥2-fold expansion, nearly all had Re approximately 1 by 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylodynamics revealed transmission cluster expansion in this densely sampled region and allowed estimates of Re to monitor active clusters, showing the propensity for steady, onward propagation. Associations with clustering and cluster characteristics vary by cluster size. Harnessing sequence-derived epidemiologic parameters within routine surveillance could allow refined monitoring of local subepidemics.

Factors Associated With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections Linked in Genetic Clusters But Disconnected in Partner Tracing

BACKGROUND

Successful partner notification can improve community-level outcomes by increasing the proportion of persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are linked to HIV care and virally suppressed, but it is resource intensive. Understanding where HIV transmission pathways may be undetected by routine partner notification may help improve case finding strategies.

METHODS

We combined partner notification interview and HIV sequence data for persons diagnosed with HIV in Wake County, NC in 2012 to 2013 to evaluate partner contact networks among persons with HIV pol gene sequences 2% or less pairwise genetic distance. We applied a set of multivariable generalized estimating equations to identify correlates of disparate membership in genetic versus partner contact networks.

RESULTS

In the multivariable model, being in a male-male pair (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 16.7; P = 0.01), chronic HIV infection status (AOR, 4.5; P < 0.01), and increasing percent genetic distance between each dyad member's HIV pol gene sequence (AOR, 8.3 per each 1% increase, P < 0.01) were all associated with persons with HIV clustering but not being identified in the partner notification network component. Having anonymous partners or other factors typically associated with risk behavior were not associated.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on genetic networks, partnerships which may be stigmatized, may have occurred farther back in time or may have an intervening partner were more likely to be unobserved in the partner contact network. The HIV genetic cluster information contributes to public health understanding of HIV transmission networks in these settings where partner identifying information is not available.

Informed consent for HIV phylogenetic research: A case study of urban individuals living with HIV approached for enrollment in an HIV study

INTRODUCTION

Phylogenetic analyses can provide insights on HIV tansmission dynamics. Country and state-level differences in HIV criminalization and disclosure laws and advances in next generation sequencing could impact perceived study risks.

METHODS

We present study opt-out rates and the reasons provided during enrollment for a study conducted in Boston (6/2017-8/2018).

RESULTS

Of 90 patients approached to participate, 45 did not consent to participate. Reasons for not participating included unwillingness to discuss their HIV status, privacy and confidentiality concerns, disinterest, and lack of time.

CONLUSIONS

Given low participation rates and concerns related to HIV disclosure, privacy, and confidentiality, these questions remain (1) should informed consent be required for all phylogenetic analyses, including deidentified and surveillance data? (2) what additional steps can researchers take to protect the privacy of individuals, particularly in contexts where HIV is criminalized or there have been civil/criminal cases investigating HIV transmission? And (3) what role can community members play to minimize the potential risks, particularly for those most marginalized? These questions require input from both researchers and community members living with HIV/AIDS.

A cross-sectional study to characterize local HIV-1 dynamics in Washington, DC using next-generation sequencing

Washington, DC continues to experience a generalized HIV-1 epidemic. We characterized the local phylodynamics of HIV-1 in DC using next-generation sequencing (NGS) data. Viral samples from 68 participants from 2016 through 2017 were sequenced and paired with epidemiological data. Phylogenetic and network inferences, drug resistant mutations (DRMs), subtypes and HIV-1 diversity estimations were completed. Haplotypes were reconstructed to infer transmission clusters. Phylodynamic inferences based on the HIV-1 polymerase (pol) and envelope genes (env) were compared. Higher HIV-1 diversity (n.s.) was seen in men who have sex with men, heterosexual, and male participants in DC. 54.0% of the participants contained at least one DRM. The 40-49 year-olds showed the highest prevalence of DRMs (22.9%). Phylogenetic analysis of pol and env sequences grouped 31.9-33.8% of the participants into clusters. HIV-TRACE grouped 2.9-12.8% of participants when using consensus sequences and 9.0-64.2% when using haplotypes. NGS allowed us to characterize the local phylodynamics of HIV-1 in DC more broadly and accurately, given a better representation of its diversity and dynamics. Reconstructed haplotypes provided novel and deeper phylodynamic insights, which led to networks linking a higher number of participants. Our understanding of the HIV-1 epidemic was expanded with the powerful coupling of HIV-1 NGS data with epidemiological data.

Public health in genetic spaces: a statistical framework to optimize cluster-based outbreak detection

Genetic clustering is a popular method for characterizing variation in transmission rates for rapidly evolving viruses, and could potentially be used to detect outbreaks in 'near real time'. However, the statistical properties of clustering are poorly understood in this context, and there are no objective guidelines for setting clustering criteria. Here, we develop a new statistical framework to optimize a genetic clustering method based on the ability to forecast new cases. We analysed the pairwise Tamura-Nei (TN93) genetic distances for anonymized HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences from Seattle (n = 1,653) and Middle Tennessee, USA (n = 2,779), and northern Alberta, Canada (n = 809). Under varying TN93 thresholds, we fit two models to the distributions of new cases relative to clusters of known cases: 1, a null model that assumes cluster growth is strictly proportional to cluster size, i.e. no variation in transmission rates among individuals; and 2, a weighted model that incorporates individual-level covariates, such as recency of diagnosis. The optimal threshold maximizes the difference in information loss between models, where covariates are used most effectively. Optimal TN93 thresholds varied substantially between data sets, e.g. 0.0104 in Alberta and 0.016 in Seattle and Tennessee, such that the optimum for one population would potentially misdirect prevention efforts in another. For a given population, the range of thresholds where the weighted model conferred greater predictive accuracy tended to be narrow (±0.005 units), and the optimal threshold tended to be stable over time. Our framework also indicated that variation in the recency of HIV diagnosis among clusters was significantly more predictive of new cases than sample collection dates (ΔAIC > 50). These results suggest that one cannot rely on historical precedence or convention to configure genetic clustering methods for public health applications, especially when translating methods between settings of low-level and generalized epidemics. Our framework not only enables investigators to calibrate a clustering method to a specific public health setting, but also provides a variable selection procedure to evaluate different predictive models of cluster growth.

Brief Report: Onward Transmission of Multiple HIV-1 Unique Recombinant Forms Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

Unique recombinant forms (URFs) were generated in dually infected or multiply infected individuals, and some of URFs can be transmitted to many people resulting in the emergence of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). We examined whether there was evidence for onward transmission of multiple URFs among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Beijing.

METHODS

A total of 146 MSM subjects with acute/early HIV-1 infection were recruited from the Beijing PRIMO clinical cohort between September 2010 and July 2012. HIV-1 full-length gag and partial pol, env genes were amplified and sequenced separately. Phylogenetic analysis and recombination analysis were performed to determine the viral genotypes. Single genome amplification and direct sequencing were used to confirm onward transmission of URFs.

RESULTS

CRF01_AE was the most common genotype (51.9%), followed by CRF07_BC (23.0%), subtype B (14.8%), URFs (7.4%), CRF65_cpx (2.2%), and CRF55_01B (0.7%). Multiple forms of URFs were identified, including CRF01_AE/BC, CRF01_AE/B, and CRF01_AE/C. Nine of the 10 individuals harboring URFs were infected by onward transmission of URFs. The remaining one individual was coinfected with CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC variants.

CONCLUSIONS

We introduced a new method to provide evidence for onward transmission of URF strains by examining the absence of intersubtype coinfection among early infected individuals. Onward transmission of multiple URFs was found among MSM in Beijing, China. Our findings call for a program of continuous molecular surveillance and have implications to prevention programs among MSM in China.

Exploring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics by Combining Phylogenetic Analysis and Infection Timing

HIV-1 pol sequences obtained through baseline drug resistance testing of patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 were analyzed for genetic similarity. For 927 patients the information on genetic similarity was combined with demographic data and with information on the recency of infection. Overall, 48.3% of the patients were genetically linked with 11.4% belonging to a pair and 36.9% involved in a cluster of ≥3 members. The percentage of early diagnosed (≤4 months after infection) was 28.6%. Patients of Belgian origin were more frequently involved in transmission clusters (49.7% compared to 15.3%) and diagnosed earlier (37.4% compared to 12.2%) than patients of Sub-Saharan African origin. Of the infections reported to be locally acquired, 69.5% were linked (14.1% paired and 55.4% in a cluster). Equal parts of early and late diagnosed individuals (59.9% and 52.4%, respectively) were involved in clusters. The identification of a genetically linked individual for the majority of locally infected patients suggests a high rate of diagnosis in this population. Diagnosis however is often delayed for >4 months after infection increasing the opportunities for onward transmission. Prevention of local infection should focus on earlier diagnosis and protection of the still uninfected members of sexual networks with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected members.

Leveraging Phylogenetics to Understand HIV Transmission and Partner Notification Networks

BACKGROUND

Partner notification is an important component of public health test and treat interventions. To enhance this essential function, we assessed the potential for molecular methods to supplement routine partner notification and corroborate HIV networks.

METHODS

All persons diagnosed with HIV infection in Wake County, NC, during 2012-2013 and their disclosed sexual partners were included in a sexual network. A data set containing HIV-1 pol sequences collected in NC during 1997-2014 from 15,246 persons was matched to HIV-positive persons in the network and used to identify putative transmission clusters. Both networks were compared.

RESULTS

The partner notification network comprised 280 index cases and 383 sexual partners and high-risk social contacts (n = 131 HIV-positive). Of the 411 HIV-positive persons in the partner notification network, 181 (44%) did not match to a HIV sequence, 61 (15%) had sequences but were not identified in a transmission cluster, and 169 (41%) were identified in a transmission cluster. More than half (59%) of transmission clusters bridged sexual network partnerships that were not recognized in the partner notification; most of these clusters were dominated by men who have sex with men.

CONCLUSIONS

Partner notification and HIV sequence analysis provide complementary representations of the existent partnerships underlying the HIV transmission network. The partner notification network components were bridged by transmission clusters, particularly among components dominated by men who have sex with men. Supplementing the partner notification network with phylogenetic data highlighted avenues for intervention.

A Short-Term Assessment of Nascent HIV-1 Transmission Clusters Among Newly Diagnosed Individuals Using Envelope Sequence-Based Phylogenetic Analyses

The identification of transmission clusters (TCs) of HIV-1 using phylogenetic analyses can provide insights into viral transmission network and help improve prevention strategies. We compared the use of partial HIV-1 envelope fragment of 1,070 bp with its loop 3 (108 bp) to determine its utility in inferring HIV-1 transmission clustering. Serum samples of recently (n = 106) and chronically (n = 156) HIV-1-infected patients with status confirmed were sequenced. HIV-1 envelope nucleotide-based phylogenetic analyses were used to infer HIV-1 TCs. Those were constructed using ClusterPickerGUI_1.2.3 considering a pairwise genetic distance of ≤10% threshold. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between the demographic factors that were likely associated with HIV-1 clustering. Ninety-eight distinct consensus envelope sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analyses. Using a partial envelope fragment sequence, 42 sequences were grouped into 15 distinct small TCs while the V3 loop reproduces 10 clusters. The agreement between the partial envelope and the V3 loop fragments was significantly moderate with a Cohen's kappa (κ) coefficient of 0.59, p < .00001. The mean age (<38.8 years) and HIV-1 B subtype are two factors identified that were significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission clustering in the cohort, odds ratio (OR) = 0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI, 0.04-0.66), p = .002 and OR: 0.17, 95% CI (0.10-0.61), p = .011, respectively. The present study confirms that a partial fragment of the HIV-1 envelope sequence is a better predictor of transmission clustering. However, the loop 3 segment may be useful in screening purposes and may be more amenable to integration in surveillance programs.

Enhanced use of phylogenetic data to inform public health approaches to HIV among men who have sex with men

The multidimensional nature and continued evolution of HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) requires innovative intervention approaches. Strategies are needed that recognise the individual, social and structural factors driving HIV transmission; that can pinpoint networks with heightened transmission risk; and that can help target intervention in real time. HIV phylogenetics is a rapidly evolving field with strong promise for informing innovative responses to the HIV epidemic among MSM. Currently, HIV phylogenetic insights are providing new understandings of characteristics of HIV epidemics involving MSM, social networks influencing transmission, characteristics of HIV transmission clusters involving MSM, targets for antiretroviral and other prevention strategies and dynamics of emergent epidemics. Maximising the potential of HIV phylogenetics for HIV responses among MSM will require attention to key methodological challenges and ethical considerations, as well as resolving key implementation and scientific questions. Enhanced and integrated use of HIV surveillance, sociobehavioural and phylogenetic data resources are becoming increasingly critical for informing public health approaches to HIV among MSM.

Phylogenetic transmission clusters among newly diagnosed antiretroviral drug-naïve patients with human immunodeficiency virus-1 in Korea: A study from 1999 to 2012

Population-level phylogenetic patterns reflect both transmission dynamics and genetic changes, which accumulate because of selection or drift. In this study, we determined whether a longitudinally sampled dataset derived from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1-infected individuals over a 14-year period (1999–2012) could shed light on the transmission processes involved in the initiation of the HIV-1 epidemic in Korea. In total, 927 sequences were acquired from 1999 to 2012; each sequence was acquired from an individual patient who had not received treatment. Sequences were used for drug resistance and phylogenetic analyses. Phylogenetic and other analyses were conducted using MEGA version 6.06 based on the GTR G+I parameter model and SAS. Of the 927 samples, 863 (93.1%) were classified as subtype B and 64 were classified as other subtypes. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that 104 of 927 patient samples (11.2%) were grouped into 37 clusters. Being part of a transmission cluster was significantly associated with subtype-B viruses, infection via sexual contact, and the infection of young males. Of all clusters, three (~8.1%) that comprised 10 individual samples (22.2% of 45 individuals) included at least one member with total transmitted drug resistance (TDR). In summary, HIV transmission cluster analyses can integrate laboratory data with behavioral data to enable the identification of key transmission patterns to develop tailored interventions aimed at interrupting transmission chains.

Trust and Expectations of Researchers and Public Health Departments for the Use of HIV Molecular Epidemiology

Background: Molecular epidemiology (ME) is a technique used to study the dynamics of pathogen transmission through a population. When used to study HIV infections, ME generates powerful information about how HIV is transmitted, including epidemiologic patterns of linkage and, potentially, transmission direction. Thus, ME raises challenging questions about the most responsible way to protect individual privacy while acquiring and using these data to advance public health and inform HIV intervention strategies. Here, we report on stakeholders' expectations for how researchers and public health agencies might use HIV ME. Methods: We conducted in-depth semistructured interviews with 40 key stakeholders to find out how these individuals respond to the proposed risks and benefits of HIV ME. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using Atlas.ti. Expectations were assessed through analysis of responses to hypothetical scenarios designed to help interviewees think through the implications of this emerging technique in the contexts of research and public health. Results: Our analysis reveals a wide range of imagined responsibilities, capabilities, and trustworthiness of researchers and public health agencies. Specifically, many respondents expect researchers and public health agencies to use HIV ME carefully and maintain transparency about how data will be used. Informed consent was discussed as an important opportunity for notification of privacy risks. Furthermore, some respondents wished that public health agencies were held to the same form of oversight and accountability represented by informed consent in research. Conclusions: To prevent HIV ME from becoming a barrier to testing or a source of public mistrust, the sense of vulnerability expressed by some respondents must be addressed. In research, informed consent is an obvious opportunity for this. Without giving specimen donors a similar opportunity to opt out, public health agencies may find it difficult to adopt HIV ME without deterring testing and treatment.

Ethical issues in HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV phylogenetic and molecular epidemiology analyses are increasingly being performed with a goal of improving HIV prevention efforts. However, ethical, legal and social issues are associated with these analyses, and should be considered when performed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several working groups have recently outlined the major issues surrounding the use of molecular epidemiology for HIV prevention. First, the benefits of HIV molecular epidemiology remain unclear, and further work is needed to quantitatively demonstrate the benefits that can be expected. Second, privacy loss is an important risk, with implications of disclosure varying by the regional legal and social climate. Inferential privacy risks will increase with technological improvements in sequencing and analysis. Third, data sharing, which enhances the utility of the data, may also increase the risk of inferential privacy loss. Mitigation strategies are available to address each of these issues.

SUMMARY

HIV molecular epidemiology for research and public health pose significant ethical issues that continue to evolve with improving technology, increased sampling and a changing legal and social climate. Guidance surrounding these issues needs to be developed for researchers and public health officials in an iterative and region specific manner that accounts for the potential benefits and risks of this technology.

Integration of Contact Tracing and Phylogenetics in an Investigation of Acute HIV Infection

BACKGROUND

The integration of traditional contact tracing with HIV sequence analyses offers opportunities to mitigate some of the barriers to effective network construction. We used combined analyses during an outbreak investigation of spatiotemporally clustered acute HIV infections to evaluate if the observed clustering was the product of a single outbreak.

METHODS

We investigated acute and recent HIV index cases reported in North Carolina from 2013 to 2014 and their reported contacts. Contact tracing networks were constructed with surveillance data and compared with phylogenetic transmission clusters involving an index case using available HIV-1 pol sequences including 1672 references. Clusters were defined as clades of 2 or more sequences with a less than 1.5% genetic distance and a bootstrap of at least 98% on maximum-likelihood phylogenies.

RESULTS

In total, 68 index cases and 210 contacts (71 HIV infected) were reported. The contact tracing network involved 58 components with low overall density (1.2% statewide); 33% of first-degree contacts could not be located. Among 38 (56%) of 68 index cases and 34 (48%) of 71 contacts with sequences, 13 phylogenetic clusters were identified (size 2-4 members). Four clusters connected network components that were not linked in contact tracing. The largest component (n = 28 cases) included 2 distinct phylogenetic clusters and spanned 2 regions.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified the concurrent expansion of multiple small transmission clusters rather than a single outbreak in a largely disconnected contact tracing network. Integration of phylogenetic analyses provided timely information on transmission networks during the investigation. Our findings highlight the potential of combined methods to better identify high-risk networks for intervention.

Social Networks of Substance-Using Populations: Key Issues and Promising New Approaches for HIV

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This paper presents recent literature on substance using networks and HIV, highlighting renewed and emerging themes in the field. The goal is to draw attention to research that holds considerable promise for advancing our understanding of the role of networks in shaping behaviors, while also providing critical information for the development of interventions, programs, and policies to reduce HIV and other drug-related harms.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent research advances our understanding of networks and HIV, including among understudied populations, and provides new insight into how risk environments shape the networks and health of substance-using populations. In particular, the integration of network approaches with molecular epidemiology, research on space and place, and intervention methods provides exciting new avenues of investigation. Continued advances in network research are critical to supporting the health and rights of substance-using populations and ensuring the development of high-impact HIV programs and policies.

HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) is important, especially in large-scale datasets, for designing prevention programmes and public health intervention strategies. We used a large-scale HIV-1 sequence dataset from nine European HIV cohorts and one Canadian, to identify MTCs and investigate factors associated with the probability of belonging to MTCs.

METHODS

To identify MTCs, we applied maximum likelihood inferences on partial pol sequences from 8955 HIV-positive individuals linked to demographic and clinical data. MTCs were defined using two different criteria: clusters with bootstrap support >75% (phylogenetic confidence criterion) and clusters consisting of sequences from a specific region at a proportion of >75% (geographic criterion) compared to the total number of sequences within the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with MTC clustering.

RESULTS

Although 3700 (41%) sequences belonged to MTCs, proportions differed substantially by country and subtype, ranging from 7% among UK subtype C sequences to 63% among German subtype B sequences. The probability of belonging to an MTC was independently less likely for women than men (OR = 0.66; P < 0.001), older individuals (OR = 0.79 per 10-year increase in age; P < 0.001) and people of non-white ethnicity (OR = 0.44; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.70; P = 0.002 for black and 'other' versus white, respectively). It was also more likely among men who have sex with men (MSM) than other risk groups (OR = 0.62; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.69; P = 0.002 for people who inject drugs, and sex between men and women, respectively), subtype B (ORs 0.36-0.70 for A, C, CRF01 and CRF02 versus B; all P < 0.05), having a well-estimated date of seroconversion (OR = 1.44; P < 0.001), a later calendar year of sampling (ORs 2.01-2.61 for all post-2002 periods versus pre-2002; all P < 0.01), and being naïve to antiretroviral therapy at sampling (OR = 1.19; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion (>40%) of individuals belonged to MTCs. Notably, the HIV epidemic dispersal appears to be driven by subtype B viruses spread within MSM networks. Expansion of regional epidemics seems mainly associated with recent MTCs, rather than the growth of older, established ones. This information is important for designing prevention and public health intervention strategies.

Growth of HIV-1 Molecular Transmission Clusters in New York City

Background

HIV-1 genetic sequences can be used to infer viral transmission history and dynamics. Throughout the United States, HIV-1 sequences from drug resistance testing are reported to local public health departments.

Methods

We investigated whether inferred HIV transmission network dynamics can identify individuals and clusters of individuals most likely to give rise to future HIV cases in a surveillance setting. We used HIV-TRACE, a genetic distance-based clustering tool, to infer molecular transmission clusters from HIV-1 pro/RT sequences from 65736 people in the New York City surveillance registry. Logistic and LASSO regression analyses were used to identify correlates of clustering and cluster growth, respectively. We performed retrospective transmission network analyses to evaluate individual- and cluster-level prioritization schemes for identifying parts of the network most likely to give rise to new cases in the subsequent year.

Results

Individual-level prioritization schemes predicted network growth better than random targeting. Across the 3600 inferred molecular transmission clusters, previous growth dynamics were superior predictors of future transmission cluster growth compared to individual-level prediction schemes. Cluster-level prioritization schemes considering previous cluster growth relative to cluster size further improved network growth predictions.

Conclusions

Prevention efforts based on HIV molecular epidemiology may improve public health outcomes in a US surveillance setting.

Transmission dynamics among participants initiating antiretroviral therapy upon diagnosis of early acute HIV-1 infection in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess transmission characteristics in a predominantly MSM cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately following diagnosis of acute HIV-1infection (AHI).

METHODS

A longitudinal study (2009-2017) was performed in participants with AHI (n = 439) attending a single clinic in Bangkok. Plasma samples obtained prior to ART were used to obtain HIV-1 pol sequences and combined with clinical and epidemiologic data to assess transmission dynamics (cluster formation and size) using phylogenetic analysis. Clusters were estimated using maximum likelihood, genetic distance of 1.5% and visual inspection. The potential transmitter(s) in a cluster was determined using time to viral suppression and interview data.

RESULTS

The cohort was predominantly MSM (93%) and infected with HIV-1 CRF01_AE (87%). Medians (ranges) for age and viral load prior to ART were 26 (18-70) years and 5.9 (2.5-8.2) log10 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. Median time from history of HIV-1 exposure to diagnosis was 19 (3-61) days. Viral suppression was observed in 388 of 412 (94%) participants at a median time of 12 weeks following ART. Twenty-six clusters with median cluster size of 2 (2-5) representing 62 of 439 (14%) participants were observed. Younger age was associated with cluster formation: median 28 versus 30 years for unique infections (P = 0.01). A potential transmitter was identified in 11 of 26 (42%) clusters.

CONCLUSION

Despite high rates of viral suppression following diagnosis and treatment of AHI within a cohort of young Thai MSM, HIV-1 transmission continued, reflecting the need to expand awareness and treatment access to the entire MSM population.

HIV-1 Transmission Clustering and Phylodynamics Highlight the Important Role of Young Men Who Have Sex with Men

More persons living with HIV reside in the Southern United States than in any other region, yet little is known about HIV molecular epidemiology in the South. We used cluster and phylodynamic analyses to evaluate HIV transmission patterns in middle Tennessee. We performed cross-sectional analyses of HIV-1 pol sequences and clinical data collected from 2001 to 2015 among persons attending the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Transmission clusters were identified using maximum likelihood phylogenetics and patristic distance differences. Demographic, risk behavior, and clinical factors were assessed evaluating “active” clusters (clusters including sequences sampled 2011–2015) and associations estimated with logistic regression. Transmission risk ratios for men who have sex with men (MSM) were estimated with phylodynamic models. Among 2915 persons (96% subtype-B sequences), 963 (33%) were members of 292 clusters (distance ≤1.5%, size range 2–39). Most clusters (62%, n = 690 persons) were active, either being newly identified (n = 80) or showing expansion on existing clusters (n = 101). Correlates of active clustering among persons with sequences collected during 2011–2015 included MSM risk and ≤30 years of age. Active clusters were significantly more concentrated in MSM and younger persons than historical clusters. Young MSM (YMSM) (≤26.4 years) had high estimated transmission risk [risk ratio = 4.04 (2.85–5.65) relative to older MSM] and were much more likely to transmit to YMSM. In this Tennessee cohort, transmission clusters over time were more concentrated by MSM and younger age, with high transmission risk among and between YMSM, highlighting the importance of interventions among this group. Detecting active clusters could help direct interventions to disrupt ongoing transmission chains.

Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV Epidemic in Three German Metropolitan Regions - Cologne/Bonn, Munich and Hannover, 1999-2016

Using HIV sequence data to characterize clusters of HIV transmission may provide insight into the epidemic. Phylogenetic and network analyses were performed to infer putative relationships between HIV-1 partial pol sequences from 2,774 individuals receiving care in three German regions between 1999-2016. The regions have in common that they host some of the largest annual festivals in Europe (Carnival and Oktoberfest). Putative links with sequences (n = 150,396) from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence database were evaluated. A total of 595/2,774 (21.4%) sequences linked with at least one other sequence, forming 184 transmission clusters. Clustering individuals were significantly more likely to be younger, male, and report sex with men as their main risk factor (p < 0.001 each). Most clusters (77.2%) consisted exclusively of men; 41 (28.9%) of these included men reporting sex with women. Thirty-two clusters (17.4%) contained sequences from more than one region; clustering men were significantly more likely to be in a position bridging regional HIV epidemics than clustering women (p = 0.027). We found 236 clusters linking 547 sequences from our sample with sequences from the Los Alamos database (n = 1407; 31% from other German centres). These results highlight the pitfalls of focusing HIV prevention efforts on specific risk groups or specific locales.

Impact of Public Safety Policies on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Dynamics in Tijuana, Mexico

Background

North Tijuana, Mexico is home to many individuals at high risk for transmitting and acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Recently, policy shifts by local government impacted how these individuals were handled by authorities. Here we examined how this affected regional HIV transmission dynamics.

Methods

HIV pol sequences and associated demographic information were collected from 8 research studies enrolling persons in Tijuana and were used to infer viral transmission patterns. To evaluate the impact of recent policy changes on HIV transmission dynamics, qualitative interviews were performed on a subset of recently infected individuals.

Results

Between 2004 and 2016, 288 unique HIV pol sequences were obtained from individuals in Tijuana, including 46.4% from men who have sex with men, 42.1% from individuals reporting transactional sex, and 27.8% from persons who inject drugs (some individuals had >1 risk factor). Forty-two percent of sequences linked to at least 1 other sequence, forming 37 transmission clusters. Thirty-two individuals seroconverted during the observation period, including 8 between April and July 2016. Three of these individuals were putatively linked together. Qualitative interviews suggested changes in policing led individuals to shift locations of residence and injection drug use, leading to increased risk taking (eg, sharing needles).

Conclusions

Near real-time molecular epidemiologic analyses identified a cluster of linked transmissions temporally associated with policy shifts. Interviews suggested these shifts may have led to increased risk taking among individuals at high risk for HIV acquisition. With all public policy shifts, downstream impacts need to be carefully considered, as even well-intentioned policies can have major public health consequences.

Perceptions of molecular epidemiology studies of HIV among stakeholders

Background: Advances in viral sequence analysis make it possible to track the spread of infectious pathogens, such as HIV, within a population. When used to study HIV, these analyses (i.e., molecular epidemiology) potentially allow inference of the identity of individual research subjects. Current privacy standards are likely insufficient for this type of public health research. To address this challenge, it will be important to understand how stakeholders feel about the benefits and risks of such research.

Design and Methods: To better understand perceived benefits and risks of these research methods, in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with HIV-infected individuals, individuals at high-risk for contracting HIV, and professionals in HIV care and prevention. To gather additional perspectives, attendees to a public lecture on molecular epidemiology were asked to complete an informal questionnaire.

Results: Among those interviewed and polled, there was near unanimous support for using molecular epidemiology to study HIV. Questionnaires showed strong agreement about benefits of molecular epidemiology, but diverse attitudes regarding risks. Interviewees acknowledged several risks, including privacy breaches and provocation of anti-gay sentiment. The interviews also demonstrated a possibility that misunderstandings about molecular epidemiology may affect how risks and benefits are evaluated.

Conclusions: While nearly all study participants agree that the benefits of HIV molecular epidemiology outweigh the risks, concerns about privacy must be addressed to ensure continued trust in research institutions and willingness to participate in research.

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

Defining HIV-1 transmission clusters based on sequence data

Understanding HIV-1 transmission dynamics is relevant to both screening and intervention strategies of HIV-1 infection. Commonly, HIV-1 transmission chains are determined based on sequence similarity assessed either directly from a sequence alignment or by inferring a phylogenetic tree. This review is aimed at both nonexperts interested in understanding and interpreting studies of HIV-1 transmission, and experts interested in finding the most appropriate cluster definition for a specific dataset and research question. We start by introducing the concepts and methodologies of how HIV-1 transmission clusters usually have been defined. We then present the results of a systematic review of 105 HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies summarizing the most common methods and definitions in the literature. Finally, we offer our perspectives on how HIV-1 transmission clusters can be defined and provide some guidance based on examples from real life datasets.

HIV surveillance combining an assay for identification of very recent infection and phylogenetic analyses on dried spots

BACKGROUND

Transmitted/founder viruses isolated at the early stage of infection are indicators of the variants that are spreading within a population. The French reporting system for new HIV diagnoses is linked to a virological surveillance using dried serum spots.

METHODS

We combined an immunoassay for very recent infection (less than 31 days) to a phylogenetic analysis of transmitted/founder viruses and sociodemographic information to analyze the dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic during a 3-year period. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of the identified clusters.

RESULTS

Of 17 010 dried serum spots collected, 549 very recent infections were identified for which both env sequences and sociodemographic data were available. Non-B transmitted/founder viruses were found in 196 cases (35.7%), belonging to six subtypes and seven circulating recombinant forms. Forty-three dyads/clusters were identified (range 2-11 cases), including 107 individuals (19.5%), mainly MSM. The largest cluster involved MSM infected by a CRF02_AG variant. Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris was the major hub of dissemination.

CONCLUSION

The study shows the feasibility of the surveillance of the HIV epidemic using this methodology. The observation of actively growing spatiotemporal clusters allows identification of specific networks that may be targets for intervention.

Forensic application of phylogenetic analyses - Exploration of suspected HIV-1 transmission case

Transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) between individuals may have important legal implications and therefore may come to require forensic investigation based upon phylogenetic analysis. In criminal trials results of phylogenetic analyses have been used as evidence of responsibility for HIV transmission. In Serbia, as in many countries worldwide, exposure and deliberate transmission of HIV are criminalized. We present the results of applying state of the art phylogenetic analyses, based on pol and env genetic sequences, in exploration of suspected HIV transmission among three subjects: a man and two women, with presumed assumption of transmission direction from one woman to a man. Phylogenetic methods included relevant neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic trees reconstruction and hypothesis testing, that has been shown to be the most sensitive for the reconstruction of epidemiological links mostly from sexually infected individuals. End-point limiting-dilution PCR (EPLD-PCR) assay, generating the minimum of 10 sequences per genetic region per subject, was performed to assess HIV quasispecies distribution and to explore the direction of HIV transmission between three subjects. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the viral sequences from the three subjects were more genetically related to each other than to other strains circulating in the same area with the similar epidemiological profile, forming strongly supported transmission chain, which could be in favour of a priori hypothesis of one of the women infecting the man. However, in the EPLD based phylogenetic trees for both pol and env genetic region, viral sequences of one subject (man) were paraphyletic to those of two other subjects (women), implying the direction of transmission opposite to the a priori assumption. The dated tree in our analysis confirmed the clustering pattern of query sequences. Still, in the context of unsampled sequences and inherent limitations of the applied methods, we cannot unambiguously prove that HIV-1 transmission occurred directly between two individuals. Further exploration of the known and suspected transmission cases is needed in order to define methodologies and establish their reliability.

Phylogenetic Tools for Generalized HIV-1 Epidemics: Findings from the PANGEA-HIV Methods Comparison

Viral phylogenetic methods contribute to understanding how HIV spreads in populations, and thereby help guide the design of prevention interventions. So far, most analyses have been applied to well-sampled concentrated HIV-1 epidemics in wealthy countries. To direct the use of phylogenetic tools to where the impact of HIV-1 is greatest, the Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized HIV Epidemics in Africa (PANGEA-HIV) consortium generates full-genome viral sequences from across sub-Saharan Africa. Analyzing these data presents new challenges, since epidemics are principally driven by heterosexual transmission and a smaller fraction of cases is sampled. Here, we show that viral phylogenetic tools can be adapted and used to estimate epidemiological quantities of central importance to HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a community-wide methods comparison exercise on simulated data, where participants were blinded to the true dynamics they were inferring. Two distinct simulations captured generalized HIV-1 epidemics, before and after a large community-level intervention that reduced infection levels. Five research groups participated. Structured coalescent modeling approaches were most successful: phylogenetic estimates of HIV-1 incidence, incidence reductions, and the proportion of transmissions from individuals in their first 3 months of infection correlated with the true values (Pearson correlation > 90%), with small bias. However, on some simulations, true values were markedly outside reported confidence or credibility intervals. The blinded comparison revealed current limits and strengths in using HIV phylogenetics in challenging settings, provided benchmarks for future methods' development, and supports using the latest generation of phylogenetic tools to advance HIV surveillance and prevention.

Understanding Local Spatial Variation Along the Care Continuum: The Potential Impact of Transportation Vulnerability on HIV Linkage to Care and Viral Suppression in High-Poverty Areas, Atlanta, Georgia

BACKGROUND

Engagement in care is central to reducing mortality for HIV-infected persons and achieving the White House National AIDS Strategy of 80% viral suppression in the US by 2020. Where an HIV-infected person lives impacts his or her ability to achieve viral suppression. Reliable transportation access for healthcare may be a key determinant of this place-suppression relationship.

METHODS

ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) were the units of analysis. We used geospatial and ecologic analyses to examine spatial distributions of neighborhood-level variables (eg, transportation accessibility) and associations with: (1) community linkage to care, and (2) community viral suppression. Among Atlanta ZCTAs with data for newly diagnosed HIV cases (2006-2010), we used Moran I to evaluate spatial clustering and linear regression models to evaluate associations between neighborhood variables and outcomes.

RESULTS

In 100 ZCTAs with 8413 newly diagnosed HIV-positive residents, a median of 60 HIV cases were diagnosed per ZCTA during the 5-year period. We found significant clustering of ZCTAs with low linkage to care and viral suppression (Moran I = 0.218, P < 0.05). In high-poverty ZCTAs, a 10% point increase in ZCTA-level household vehicle ownership was associated with a 4% point increase in linkage to care (P = 0.02, R = 0.16). In low-poverty ZCTAs, a 10% point increase in ZCTA-level household vehicle ownership was associated with a 30% point increase in ZCTA-level viral suppression (P = 0.01, R = 0.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Correlations between transportation variables and community-level care linkage and viral suppression vary by area poverty level and provide opportunities for interventions beyond individual-level factors.

Connecting the dots: network data and models in HIV epidemiology

Effective HIV prevention requires knowledge of the structure and dynamics of the social networks across which infections are transmitted. These networks most commonly comprise chains of sexual relationships, but in some populations, sharing of contaminated needles is also an important, or even the main mechanism that connects people in the network. Whereas network data have long been collected during survey interviews, new data sources have become increasingly common in recent years, because of advances in molecular biology and the use of partner notification services in HIV prevention and treatment programmes. We review current and emerging methods for collecting HIV-related network data, as well as modelling frameworks commonly used to infer network parameters and map potential HIV transmission pathways within the network. We discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of existing methods and models, and we propose a research agenda for advancing network analysis in HIV epidemiology. We make the case for a combination approach that integrates multiple data sources into a coherent statistical framework.

Characterization of HIV Transmission in South-East Austria

To gain deeper insight into the epidemiology of HIV-1 transmission in South-East Austria we performed a retrospective analysis of 259 HIV-1 partial pol sequences obtained from unique individuals newly diagnosed with HIV infection in South-East Austria from 2008 through 2014. After quality filtering, putative transmission linkages were inferred when two sequences were ≤1.5% genetically different. Multiple linkages were resolved into putative transmission clusters. Further phylogenetic analyses were performed using BEAST v1.8.1. Finally, we investigated putative links between the 259 sequences from South-East Austria and all publicly available HIV polymerase sequences in the Los Alamos National Laboratory HIV sequence database. We found that 45.6% (118/259) of the sampled sequences were genetically linked with at least one other sequence from South-East Austria forming putative transmission clusters. Clustering individuals were more likely to be men who have sex with men (MSM; p<0.001), infected with subtype B (p<0.001) or subtype F (p = 0.02). Among clustered males who reported only heterosexual (HSX) sex as an HIV risk, 47% clustered closely with MSM (either as pairs or within larger MSM clusters). One hundred and seven of the 259 sequences (41.3%) from South-East Austria had at least one putative inferred linkage with sequences from a total of 69 other countries. In conclusion, analysis of HIV-1 sequences from newly diagnosed individuals residing in South-East Austria revealed a high degree of national and international clustering mainly within MSM. Interestingly, we found that a high number of heterosexual males clustered within MSM networks, suggesting either linkage between risk groups or misrepresentation of sexual risk behaviors by subjects.

Using Molecular HIV Surveillance Data to Understand Transmission Between Subpopulations in the United States

BACKGROUND

Studying HIV transmission networks provides insight into the spread of HIV and opportunities for intervention. We identified transmission dynamics among risk groups and racial/ethnic groups in the United States.

METHODS

For HIV-1 pol sequences reported to the US National HIV Surveillance System during 2001-2012, we calculated pairwise genetic distance, identified linked pairs of sequences (those with distance ≤1.5%), and examined transmission category and race/ethnicity of these potential transmission partners.

RESULTS

Of 40,950 sequences, 12,910 (32%) were linked to ≥1 other sequence. Of men who have sex with men (MSM) who were linked to ≥1 sequence, 88% were linked to other MSM and only 4% were linked to heterosexual women. Of heterosexual women for whom we identified potential transmission partners, 29% were linked to MSM, 21% to heterosexual men, and 12% to persons who inject drugs. Older and black MSM were more likely to be linked to heterosexual women. Assortative mixing was present for all racial/ethnic groups; 81% of blacks/African Americans linked to other blacks.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis is the first use of US surveillance data to infer an HIV transmission network. Our data suggest that HIV infections among heterosexual women predominantly originate from MSM, followed by heterosexual men. Although few MSM were linked to women, suggesting that a minority of MSM are involved in transmission with heterosexual women, these transmissions represent a substantial proportion of HIV acquisitions by heterosexual women. Interventions that reduce transmissions involving MSM are likely to also reduce HIV acquisition among other risk groups.

Phylogenetic Investigation of a Statewide HIV-1 Epidemic Reveals Ongoing and Active Transmission Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Molecular epidemiological evaluation of HIV-1 transmission networks can elucidate behavioral components of transmission that can be targets for intervention.

METHODS

We combined phylogenetic and statistical approaches using pol sequences from patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2011 at a large HIV center in Rhode Island, following 75% of the state's HIV population. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using maximum likelihood, and putative transmission clusters were evaluated using latent class analyses to determine association of cluster size with underlying demographic/behavioral characteristics. A logistic growth model was used to assess intracluster dynamics over time and predict "active" clusters that were more likely to harbor undiagnosed infections.

RESULTS

Of the 1166 HIV-1 subtype B sequences, 31% were distributed among 114 statistically supported, monophyletic clusters (range: 2-15 sequences/cluster). Sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) formed 52% of clusters. Latent class analyses demonstrated that sequences from recently diagnosed (2008-2011) MSM with primary HIV infection (PHI) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were more likely to form larger clusters (odds ratio: 1.62-11.25, P < 0.01). MSM in clusters were more likely to have anonymous partners and meet partners at sex clubs and pornographic stores. Four large clusters with 38 sequences (100% male, 89% MSM) had a high probability of harboring undiagnosed infections and included younger MSM with PHI and STIs.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first large-scale molecular epidemiological investigation of HIV-1 transmission in New England, sexual networks among recently diagnosed MSM with PHI and concomitant STIs contributed to the ongoing transmission. Characterization of transmission dynamics revealed actively growing clusters, which may be targets for intervention.

Ten Years of Screening and Testing for Acute HIV Infection in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE

To describe demographic and behavioral characteristics of persons with acute HIV infection (AHI) over time.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective assessment of AHI identified through the Screening and Tracing Active Transmission (STAT) program from 2003 to 2012 in North Carolina (NC). AHI was identified using pooled nucleic acid amplification for antibody negative samples and individual HIV-1 RNA for antibody indeterminate samples. The STAT program provides rapid notification and evaluation. We compared STAT-collected demographic and risk characteristics with all persons requesting tests and all non-AHI diagnoses from the NC State Laboratory of Public Health.

RESULTS

The STAT Program identified 236 AHI cases representing 3.4% (95% confidence interval: 3.0% to 3.9%) of all HIV diagnoses. AHI cases were similar to those diagnosed during established HIV. On pretest risk-assessments, AHI cases were predominately black (69.1%), male (80.1%), young (46.8% < 25 years), and men who have sex with men (MSM) (51.7%). Per postdiagnosis interviews, the median age decreased from 35 (interquartile range 25-42) to 27 (interquartile range 22-37) years, and the proportion <25 years increased from 23.8% to 45.2% (trend P = 0.04) between 2003 and 2012. AHI men were more likely to report MSM risk post-diagnosis than on pretest risk-assessments (64%-82.9%; P < 0.0001). Post-diagnosis report of MSM risk in men with AHI increased from 71.4% to 96.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

In NC, 3.4% of individuals diagnosed with HIV infection have AHI. AHI screening provides a real-time source of incidence trends, improves the diagnostic yield of HIV testing, and offers an opportunity to limit onward transmission.

HIV Transmission Patterns Among Immigrant Latinos Illuminated by the Integration of Phylogenetic and Migration Data

Latinos represent a growing proportion of HIV cases in North Carolina (NC). Understanding how immigrants are involved in local HIV transmission is important to guide interventions. We used phylogenetics to characterize Latino involvement in local HIV transmission chains. Transmission clusters were identified from maximum-likelihood phylogenies constructed with HIV pol sequences from 177 Latinos and 1,496 non-Latinos receiving care in NC. Highly supported clusters involving one or more Latinos were characterized. Migration data were obtained from interviews and chart review. Factors associated with cluster membership were identified using log-binomial regression. Most Latinos were male (76%), immigrants (83%), and had HIV-1B (99%). Immigrants were more likely to report heterosexual risk (67% vs. 23%) than U.S.-born Latinos (p < 0.01). We identified 32 clusters that included one or more Latinos; these involved 53 Latinos (30%) and 41 non-Latinos. Immigrant and U.S.-born Latinos were equally likely to be in clusters, but immigrants were more likely to be in clusters with another Latino (78% vs. 29%; p = 0.02). Cluster composition by ethnicity and risk behavior varied by cluster size; larger clusters contained fewer immigrants and more men who have sex with men (MSM). Factors associated with immigrant membership in local transmission clusters included age <30 years [RR 2.34 (95% CI 1.47-3.73)], Mexican origin [RR 2.55 (95% CI 1.29-6.88)], and residing in the United States longer before diagnosis [RR 1.53 (95% CI 1.09-2.15), per 10 years]. While some Latinos immigrate with HIV infection, many immigrants are involved in transmission networks after arrival, particularly MSM. HIV testing and prevention interventions must consider this heterogeneity and may be better targeted by integrating phylogenetic analyses.

Comprehensive Characterization of the Transmitted/Founder env Genes From a Single MSM Cohort in China

BACKGROUND

The men having sex with men (MSM) population has become one of the major risk groups for HIV-1 infection in China. However, the epidemiological patterns, function of the env genes, and autologous and heterologous neutralization activity in the same MSM population have not been systematically characterized.

METHODS

The env gene sequences were obtained by the single genome amplification. The time to the most recent common ancestor was estimated for each genotype using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. Coreceptor usage was determined in NP-2 cells. Neutralization was analyzed using Env pseudoviruses in TZM-bl cells.

RESULTS

We have obtained 547 full-length env gene sequences by single genome amplification from 30 acute/early HIV-1--infected individuals in the Beijing MSM cohort. Three genotypes (subtype B, CRF01_AE, and CRF07_BC) were identified and 20% of the individuals were infected with multiple transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses. The tight clusters of the MSM sequences regardless of geographic origins indicated nearly exclusive transmission within the MSM population and limited number of introductions. The time to the most recent common ancestor for each genotype was 10-15 years after each was first introduced in China. Disparate preferences for coreceptor usages among 3 genotypes might lead to the changes in percentage of different genotypes in the MSM population over time. The genotype-matched and genotype-mismatched neutralization activity varied among the 3 genotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

The identification of unique characteristics for transmission, coreceptor usage, neutralization profile, and epidemic patterns of HIV-1 is critical for the better understanding of transmission mechanisms, development of preventive strategies, and evaluation of vaccine efficacy in the MSM population in China.

Combining the Estimated Date of HIV Infection with a Phylogenetic Cluster Study to Better Understand HIV Spread: Application in a Paris Neighbourhood

Objectives

To relate socio-demographic and virological information to phylogenetic clustering in HIV infected patients in a limited geographical area and to evaluate the role of recently infected individuals in the spread of HIV.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences from newly diagnosed and treatment-naive patients receiving follow-up between 2008 and 2011 by physicians belonging to a health network in Paris were used to build a phylogenetic tree using neighbour-joining analysis. Time since infection was estimated by immunoassay to define recently infected patients (very early infected presenters, VEP). Data on socio-demographic, clinical and biological features in clustered and non-clustered patients were compared. Chains of infection structure was also analysed.

Results

547 patients were included, 49 chains of infection containing 108 (20%) patients were identified by phylogenetic analysis. analysis. Eighty individuals formed pairs and 28 individuals were belonging to larger clusters. The median time between two successive HIV diagnoses in the same chain of infection was 248 days [CI = 176–320]. 34.7% of individuals were considered as VEP, and 27% of them were included in chains of infection. Multivariable analysis showed that belonging to a cluster was more frequent in VEP and those under 30 years old (OR: 3.65, 95 CI 1.49–8.95, p = 0.005 and OR: 2.42, 95% CI 1.05–5.85, p = 0.04 respectively). The prevalence of drug resistance was not associated with belonging to a pair or a cluster. Within chains, VEP were not grouped together more than chance predicted (p = 0.97).

Conclusions

Most newly diagnosed patients did not belong to a chain of infection, confirming the importance of undiagnosed or untreated HIV infected individuals in transmission. Furthermore, clusters involving both recently infected individuals and longstanding infected individuals support a substantial role in transmission of the latter before diagnosis.

Ongoing HIV Transmission and the HIV Care Continuum in North Carolina

OBJECTIVE

HIV transmission is influenced by status awareness and receipt of care and treatment. We analyzed these attributes of named partners of persons with acute HIV infection (index AHI cases) to characterize the transmission landscape in North Carolina (NC).

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of programmatic data.

METHODS

We used data from the NC Screening and Tracing of Active Transmission Program (2002-2013) to determine HIV status (uninfected, AHI, or chronic HIV infection [CHI]), diagnosis status (new or previously-diagnosed), and care and treatment status (not in care, in care and not on treatment, in care and on treatment) of index AHI cases' named partners. We developed an algorithm identifying the most likely transmission source among known HIV-infected partners to estimate the proportion of transmissions arising from contact with persons at different HIV continuum stages. We conducted a complementary analysis among a subset of index AHI cases and partners with phylogenetically-linked viruses.

RESULTS

Overall, 358 index AHI cases named 932 partners, of which 218 were found to be HIV-infected (162 (74.3%) previously-diagnosed, 11 (5.0%) new AHI, 45 (20.6%) new CHI). Most transmission events appeared attributable to previously-diagnosed partners (77.4%, 95% confidence interval 69.4-85.3%). Among these previously-diagnosed partners, 23.2% (14.0-32.3%) were reported as in care and on treatment near the index AHI case diagnosis date. In the subset study of 33 phylogenetically-linked cases and partners, 60.6% of partners were previously diagnosed (43.9-77.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of HIV transmission in this setting appears attributable to contact with previously-diagnosed partners, reinforcing the need for improved engagement in care after diagnosis.

Importance of Viral Sequence Length and Number of Variable and Informative Sites in Analysis of HIV Clustering

To improve the methodology of HIV cluster analysis, we addressed how analysis of HIV clustering is associated with parameters that can affect the outcome of viral clustering. The extent of HIV clustering and tree certainty was compared between 401 HIV-1C near full-length genome sequences and subgenomic regions retrieved from the LANL HIV Database. Sliding window analysis was based on 99 windows of 1,000 bp and 45 windows of 2,000 bp. Potential associations between the extent of HIV clustering and sequence length and the number of variable and informative sites were evaluated. The near full-length genome HIV sequences showed the highest extent of HIV clustering and the highest tree certainty. At the bootstrap threshold of 0.80 in maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, 58.9% of near full-length HIV-1C sequences but only 15.5% of partial pol sequences (ViroSeq) were found in clusters. Among HIV-1 structural genes, pol showed the highest extent of clustering (38.9% at a bootstrap threshold of 0.80), although it was significantly lower than in the near full-length genome sequences. The extent of HIV clustering was significantly higher for sliding windows of 2,000 bp than 1,000 bp. We found a strong association between the sequence length and proportion of HIV sequences in clusters, and a moderate association between the number of variable and informative sites and the proportion of HIV sequences in clusters. In HIV cluster analysis, the extent of detectable HIV clustering is directly associated with the length of viral sequences used, as well as the number of variable and informative sites. Near full-length genome sequences could provide the most informative HIV cluster analysis. Selected subgenomic regions with a high extent of HIV clustering and high tree certainty could also be considered as a second choice.

Transmission clustering among newly diagnosed HIV patients in Chicago, 2008 to 2011: using phylogenetics to expand knowledge of regional HIV transmission patterns

INTRODUCTION

HIV transmission cluster analyses can inform HIV prevention efforts. We describe the first such assessment for transmission clustering among HIV patients in Chicago.

METHODS

We performed transmission cluster analyses using HIV pol sequences from newly diagnosed patients presenting to Chicago's largest HIV clinic between 2008 and 2011. We compared sequences through progressive pairwise alignment, using neighbor joining to construct an unrooted phylogenetic tree. We defined clusters as >2 sequences among which each sequence had at least 1 partner within a genetic distance of ≤1.5%. We used multivariable regression to examine factors associated with clustering and used geospatial analysis to assess geographic proximity of phylogenetically clustered patients.

RESULTS

We compared sequences from 920 patients, median age of 35 years, 75% male, 67% black, 23% Hispanic, and 8% had a rapid plasma reagin titer ≥1:16 concurrent with their HIV diagnosis. We had HIV transmission risk data for 54%; 43% identified as men who have sex with men (MSM). Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated 123 patients (13%) grouped into 26 clusters, the largest having 20 members. In multivariable regression, age <25, black race, MSM status, male gender, higher HIV viral load, and rapid plasma reagin ≥1:16 associated with clustering. We did not observe geographic grouping of genetically clustered patients.

DISCUSSION

Our results demonstrate high rates of HIV transmission clustering, without local geographic foci, among young black MSM in Chicago. Applied prospectively, phylogenetic analyses could guide prevention efforts and help break the cycle of transmission.

Social networks, sexual networks and HIV risk in men who have sex with men

Worldwide, men who have sex with men (MSM) remain one of the most HIV-vulnerable community populations. A global public health priority is developing new methods of reaching MSM, understanding HIV transmission patterns, and intervening to reduce their risk. Increased attention is being given to the role that MSM networks play in HIV epidemiology. This review of MSM network research studies demonstrates that: (1) Members of the same social network often share similar norms, attitudes, and HIV risk behavior levels; (2) Network interventions are feasible and powerful for reducing unprotected sex and potentially for increasing HIV testing uptake; (3) HIV vulnerability among African American MSM increases when an individual enters a high-risk sexual network characterized by high density and racial homogeneity; and (4) Networks are primary sources of social support for MSM, particularly for those living with HIV, with greater support predicting higher care uptake and adherence.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics and suggest potential solutions.

Molecular tools for studying HIV transmission in sexual networks

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Phylogenetics is frequently used for studies of population-based HIV transmission. The purpose of this review is to highlight the current utilities and limitations of phylogenetics in HIV epidemiological research from sample collection through to data analysis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Studies of HIV phylogenies can provide critical information about HIV epidemics that are otherwise difficult to obtain through traditional study design such as transmission of drug-resistant virus, mixing between demographic groups, and rapidity of viral spread within populations. However, recent results from empirical and theoretical studies of HIV phylogenies challenge some of the key assumptions and interpretations from phylogenetic studies. Recent findings include lack of transmission bottlenecks in MSM and injection drug use epidemics, evidence for preferential transmission of HIV virus in heterosexual epidemics, and limited evidence that tree topologies correlate directly with underlying network structures. Other challenges include a lack of a standardized definition for a phylogenetic transmission cluster and biased or sparse sampling of HIV transmission networks.

SUMMARY

Phylogenetics is an important tool for HIV research, and offers opportunities to understand critical aspects of the HIV epidemic. Like all epidemiological research, the methods used and interpretation of results from phylogenetic studies should be made cautiously with careful consideration.

Phylogenetic analyses reveal HIV-1 infections between men misclassified as heterosexual transmissions

OBJECTIVE

HIV-1 subtype B infections are associated with MSM in the UK. Yet, around 13% of subtype B infections are found in those reporting heterosexual contact as transmission route. Using phylogenetics, we explored possible misclassification of sexual exposure among men diagnosed with HIV in the UK.

DESIGN

Viral gene sequences linked to patient-derived information were used to identify phylogenetic transmission chains.

METHODS

A total of 22,481 HIV-1 subtype B pol gene sequences sampled between 1996 and 2008 were analysed. Dated phylogenies were reconstructed and transmission clusters identified as clades of at least two sequences with a maximum genetic distance of 4.5%, a branch support of at least 95% and spanning 5 years. The characteristics of clusters containing at least one heterosexually acquired infection were analysed.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine percent of the linked heterosexuals clustered exclusively with MSM. These were more likely to be men than women. Estimated misclassification of homosexually acquired infections ranged between 1 and 11% of the reported male heterosexuals diagnosed with HIV. Black African heterosexual men were more often phylogenetically linked to MSM than other ethnic group, with an estimated misclassification range between 1 and 21%.

CONCLUSION

Overall, a small proportion of self-reported heterosexual men diagnosed with HIV could have been infected homosexually. However, up to one in five black African heterosexual men chose not to disclose sex with men at HIV diagnosis and preferred to be identified as heterosexual. Phylogenetic analyses can enhance surveillance-based risk information and inform national programmes for monitoring and preventing HIV infections.

Using HIV networks to inform real time prevention interventions

Objective

To reconstruct the local HIV-1 transmission network from 1996 to 2011 and use network data to evaluate and guide efforts to interrupt transmission.

Design

HIV-1 pol sequence data were analyzed to infer the local transmission network.

Methods

We analyzed HIV-1 pol sequence data to infer a partial local transmission network among 478 recently HIV-1 infected persons and 170 of their sexual and social contacts in San Diego, California. A transmission network score (TNS) was developed to estimate the risk of HIV transmission from a newly diagnosed individual to a new partner and target prevention interventions.

Results

HIV-1 pol sequences from 339 individuals (52.3%) were highly similar to sequences from at least one other participant (i.e., clustered). A high TNS (top 25%) was significantly correlated with baseline risk behaviors (number of unique sexual partners and insertive unprotected anal intercourse (p = 0.014 and p = 0.0455, respectively) and predicted risk of transmission (p<0.0001). Retrospective analysis of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, and simulations of ART targeted to individuals with the highest TNS, showed significantly reduced network level HIV transmission (p<0.05).

Conclusions

Sequence data from an HIV-1 screening program focused on recently infected persons and their social and sexual contacts enabled the characterization of a highly connected transmission network. The network-based risk score (TNS) was highly correlated with transmission risk behaviors and outcomes, and can be used identify and target effective prevention interventions, like ART, to those at a greater risk for HIV-1 transmission.