Brief Report: Time From Infection With the Human Immunodeficiency Virus to Diagnosis, United States

HIV and HCV testing at clinical encounters among people who inject drugs, 2013-2018-Opportunities for increased testing and prevention

People who inject drugs (PWID) with unsafe injection practices have substantial risk for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. We describe frequency of, and factors associated with, HIV and HCV testing during clinical encounters with PWID. Inpatient and Emergency Department clinical encounters at an Atlanta hospital were abstracted from medical records spanning January 2013-December 2018. We estimated frequency of HIV and HCV testing during injection drug use (IDU)-related encounters among PWID without previous diagnoses. We assessed associations between patient factors and testing using generalized estimating equations models. HIV testing occurred in 39.3% and HCV testing occurred in 17.1% of eligible IDU-related encounters. Testing was more likely in IDU-related encounters during 2017-2018 than in encounters during 2013-2014; (HIV, AOR = 2.14, 95% CI, 1.32-3.49, p < .01). Testing was less likely among Black/African American patients compared to White patients (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: HIV, AOR = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.72, p < .01); HCV, AOR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.24-0.70, p < .01). This difference may be attributable to recent testing among Black patients in non-IDU related encounters. HIV and HCV testing improved over time; however, missed opportunities for testing still existed. Strategies should aim to improve equitable HIV and HCV testing among PWID.

Missed opportunities for prevention: prevalence and incidence of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus diagnoses among a cohort of individuals discharged from an urban hospital with injection drug-related diagnoses, 2012-2019

PURPOSE

Risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections has increased due to the ongoing opioid epidemic and unsafe injection practices. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of HIV and HCV diagnoses among people who inject drugs from hospital-based clinical encounters.

METHODS

We linked clinical encounters at an Atlanta hospital during 2012-2018 with state HIV and HCV surveillance records to examine the prevalence of infections at discharge and incidence of infections post clinical encounter.

RESULTS

At discharge, 32.9% and 28.6% of patients with injection drug use-related clinical encounters had an HIV or HCV diagnosis, respectively. HIV and HCV diagnoses at the time of discharge were mostly among 40-64 years old patients, males, and Black/African Americans. Post clinical encounter, 3.8% of patients were later diagnosed with HIV, and 16.5% were later diagnosed with HCV, translating to incidence rates of 9.3 per 1000 person-years and 41.5 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The majority of HIV and HCV diagnoses post clinical encounter occurred among Black/African Americans and males. Of patients with HIV and HCV diagnoses post clinical encounter, 27.3% and 11.9% had been tested during their clinical encounter, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted interventions for HIV/HCV prevention, screening, diagnosis, and linkage to treatment are needed to reduce the incidence of new infections among people who inject drugs.

Duration of delayed diagnosis in HIV/AIDS patients in Iran: a CD4 depletion model analysis

Objective

Delayed diagnosis of HIV can lead to an inappropriate response to antiretroviral therapy (ART), rapid progression of the disease, and death. It can also carry harmful effects on public health due to the increment of transmission. This study aimed to estimate the duration of delayed diagnosis (DDD) in HIV patients in Iran.

Methods

This hybrid cross-sectional cohort study was conducted on the national HIV surveillance system database (HSSD). Linear mixed effect models with random intercept, random slope, and both were used to estimate the parameters required for the CD4 depletion model to determine the best-fitted model for DDD, stratified by the route of transmission, gender, and age group.

Results

The DDD was estimated in 11,373 patients including 4,762 (41.87%) injection drug users (IDUs), 512 (4.5%) men who had sexual contact with men (MSM), 3,762 (33.08%) patients with heterosexual contacts, and 2,337 (20.55%) patients who were infected through other routes of HIV transmission. The total mean DDD was 8.41 ± 5.97 years. The mean DDD was 7.24 ± 0.08 and 9.43 ± 6.83 years in male and female IDUs, respectively. In the heterosexual contact group, DDD was obtained as 8.60 ± 6.43 years in male patients and 9.49 ± 7.17 years in female patients. It was also estimated as 9.37 ± 7.30 years in the MSM group. Furthermore, patients infected through other transmission routes were found with a DDD of 7.90 ± 6.74 years for male patients and a DDD of 7.87 ± 5.87 years for female patients.

Conclusion

A simple CD4 depletion model analysis is represented, which incorporates a pre-estimation step to determine the best-fitted linear mixed model for calculating the parameters required for the CD4 depletion model. Considering such a noticeably high HIV diagnostic delay, especially in older adults, MSM, and heterosexual contact groups, regular periodic screening is required to reduce the DDD.

Sex and Race Disparities in Mortality and Years of Potential Life Lost Among People With HIV: A 21-Year Observational Cohort Study

Background

Since the availability of antiretroviral therapy, mortality rates among people with HIV (PWH) have decreased; however, this does not quantify premature deaths among PWH, and disparities persist.

Methods

We examined all-cause and premature mortality among PWH receiving care at the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic from January 1998 to December 2018. Mortality rates were compared by demographic and clinical factors, and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were calculated using multivariable Poisson regression. For individuals who died, age-adjusted years of potential life lost (aYPLL) per total person-years living with HIV were calculated from US sex-specific life tables, and sex and race differences were examined using multivariable linear regression.

Results

Among 6531 individuals (51% non-Hispanic [NH] White race, 40% NH Black race, 21% cis-gender women, 78% cis-gender men) included, 956 (14.6%) died. In adjusted analysis, PWH alive in the most recent calendar era (2014-2018) had decreased risk of mortality compared with those in the earliest calendar era (1998-2003; aIRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.17-0.29), and women had increased risk of death compared with men (aIRR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.12-1.54). Of those who died, Black women had the highest aYPLL (aIRR, 592.5; 95% CI, 588.4-596.6), followed by Black men (aIRR, 470.7; 95% CI, 468.4-472.9), White women (aIRR, 411.5; 95% CI, 405.6-417.4), then White men (aIRR, 308.6; 95% CI, 308.0-309.2). In adjusted models, higher YPLL remained associated with NH Black race and cis-gender women, regardless of HIV risk factor.

Conclusions

Despite marked improvement over time, sex disparities in mortality as well as sex and race disparities in YPLL remained among PWH in this cohort.

Comparison of Targeted and Routine Adolescent HIV Screening in a Pediatric Emergency Department

OBJECTIVES

The aims of the study were (1) to compare targeted and routine HIV screening in a pediatric emergency department (PED) and (2) to compare provider documented HIV risk assessment with adolescent perception of HIV risk assessment conducted during the PED visit.

METHODS

This prospective study ran concurrent to a PED routine HIV screening pilot. Adolescents could be tested for HIV by the PED provider per usual care (targeted testing); if not tested, they were approached for the routine screening pilot. A subset of adolescents completed a questionnaire on HIV risk. χ 2 analysis compared adolescents with targeted testing and routine screening. HIV-tested patients were asked if HIV risk was assessed; κ analysis compared this with documentation in the provider note.

RESULTS

Over 4 months, 107 adolescents received targeted testing and 344 received routine screening. One 14-year-old patient tested positive by routine screening; this adolescent had 2 PED visits without targeted testing within 60 days. Compared with routine screening, adolescents with targeted testing were more likely female (82% vs 57%, P < 0.001), 16 years or older (71% vs 44%, P < 0.001), or had genitourinary/gynecologic concerns (48% vs 6%, P < 0.001). Adolescents with HIV risk factors were missed by targeted testing but received routine screening. Adolescents with documented HIV risk assessment were more likely to receive targeted testing. There was moderate agreement (κ = 0.61) between provider documentation and adolescent perception of HIV risk assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

There are gaps in PED HIV risk assessment and testing, which may miss opportunities to diagnose adolescent HIV. Routine HIV screening addresses these gaps and expands adolescent HIV testing in the PED.

Clinical similarities and differences between two large HIV cohorts in the United States and Africa

Background

Washington, DC, and sub-Saharan Africa are both affected by generalized HIV epidemics. However, care for persons living with HIV (PLWH) and clinical outcomes may differ in these geographically and culturally diverse areas. We compared patient and clinical site characteristics among adult persons living with HIV (PLWH) enrolled in two longitudinal HIV cohort studies—the African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) and the DC Cohort.

Methods

The DC Cohort is a clinic-based city-wide longitudinal cohort comprised of PLWH attending 15 HIV clinics in Washington, DC. Patients’ socio-demographic characteristics, clinical evaluations, and laboratory data are retrospectively collected from electronic medical records and limited manual chart abstraction. AFRICOS is a prospective observational cohort of PLWH and uninfected volunteers attending 12 select HIV care and treatment facilities in Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. AFRICOS study participants are a subset of clinic patients who complete protocol-specific visits every 6 months with history and physical examination, questionnaire administration, and blood/sputum collection for ascertainment of HIV outcomes and comorbidities, and neurocognitive and functional assessments. Among participants aged ≥ 18 years, we generated descriptive statistics for demographic and clinical characteristics at enrollment and follow up and compared them using bivariable analyses.

Results

The study sample included 2,774 AFRICOS and 8,420 DC Cohort participants who enrolled from January 2013 (AFRICOS)/January 2011 (DC Cohort) through March 2018. AFRICOS participants were significantly more likely to be women (58.8% vs 27.1%) and younger (83.3% vs 61.1% aged < 50 years old) and significantly less likely to be MSM (only 0.1% of AFRICOS population reported MSM risk factor) than DC Cohort. Similar rates of current viral suppression (about 75% of both samples), hypertension, hepatitis B coinfection and alcohol use were observed. However, AFRICOS participants had significantly higher rates of CD4<200 and tuberculosis and significantly lower rates of obesity, DM, hepatitis C coinfection and syphilis.

Conclusions

With similar viral suppression outcomes, but many differences between our cohorts noted, the combined sample provides unique opportunities to assess and compare HIV care and treatment outcomes in the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa. Comparing these two cohorts may inform care and treatment practices and may pave the way for future pathophysiologic analyses.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis to Estimate the Time from HIV Infection to Diagnosis for People with HIV

Timely HIV diagnosis is critical to minimizing transmission events. We sought to estimate the meantime from HIV infection to diagnosis and its temporal trend among people with HIV. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a search of MEDLINE, Embase, and Google Scholar, supplemented by a hand search of bibliographies of articles, was conducted. Study information and outcome measures of time from HIV infection to diagnosis were synthesized. Random-effects metaanalyses were performed. The search identified 12 articles from 4541 unduplicated citations. Studies were conducted in the UK (k = 3), US (k = 3), France (k = 2), Australia (k = 1), Switzerland (k = 1), Netherlands (k = 1), and China (k = 1). The pooled meantime from HIV infection to diagnosis was 3.00 years (95% confidence interval: 2.16-3.84). From 1996 to 2002, meantime reduced from 4.68 to 2.66 years. Subsequently, it increased to 3.20 years in 2003 and remained relatively stable until 2015. In sub-group meta-analyses, men who have sex with men (MSM) had a meantime of 2.62 years (1.91-3.34), while for heterosexuals and people who inject drugs, it was 5.00 (4.15-5.86) and 4.98 (3.97-5.98) years, respectively. In the high- and upper-middle-income countries included in this study, persons live with undiagnosed HIV for about 3 year before being diagnosed. This period is shorter for MSM relative to people with infections attributable to other risk factors.

'How come they don't talk about it in school?' Identifying adolescent barriers to PrEP use

Although 21% of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses in the United States are in youth aged 13-24 years, adolescent awareness and uptake of the HIV prevention medication pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are low. This study explores the attitudes and challenges that adolescents face while taking PrEP. Thirty interviews were conducted with Black and Latine (we use the gender-inclusive term Latine rather than Latinx for more appropriate Spanish pronunciation) students aged 15-17 who received care at school-based health centers (SBHCs) in the Bronx, NY. Transcripts were coded inductively and deductively using thematic analysis. Most participants were unaware of PrEP, but nearly all were enthusiastic when informed about it; a majority denied that they would feel any stigma when taking PrEP. Despite this high receptivity, multiple barriers were identified, particularly confidentiality from parents, low perceived need of PrEP and concerns about daily adherence and side effects. Adolescents overall were enthusiastic about the availability of PrEP and felt it empowered them to have control over their health. SBHCs were considered trusted sources of confidential, accessible care, and we believe that they can be uniquely positioned to mitigate barriers to PrEP distribution in the future.

Time From HIV Infection to Diagnosis in the U.S., 2014-2018

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the role of sociologic, structural, and biomedical factors that influence the length of time from HIV infection to diagnosis and reducing the time from infection to diagnosis are critical for achieving the goals of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative. In a retrospective analysis, the length of time from HIV infection to diagnosis and its association with individual- and facility-level attributes are determined.

METHODS

Data reported by December 2019 to the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for people with HIV diagnosed during 2014-2018 were analyzed during December 2020. A CD4 depletion model was used to estimate the time from HIV infection to diagnosis.

RESULTS

During 2018, the median time from HIV infection to diagnosis was shorter for those infections diagnosed using the rapid testing algorithm (30.3 months, 95% CI=25.5, 34.5) than those diagnosed using the recommended (41.0 months, 95% CI=39.5, 42.0), traditional (37.0 months, 95% CI=29.5, 43.5), or other (35.5 months, 95% CI=32.5, 38.0) diagnostic testing algorithms. From 2014 to 2018, the time from HIV infection to diagnosis remained stable overall for all testing methods except for the traditional diagnostic testing algorithm. In multivariate analyses, those more likely to have HIV diagnosed closer to the time of infection were younger, were White, had transmission risk factors of injection drug use or heterosexual contact (for female individuals) or male-to-male sexual contact and injection drug use, or had HIV diagnosed at a correctional or screening facility (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Providing access to expanded testing, including rapid testing in nonclinical settings, is likely to result in a decrease in the length of time a person is unaware of their HIV infection and thus reduce onward transmission of HIV infection.

HIV Testing Strategies for Health Departments to End the Epidemic in the U.S

An important goal of the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative is the timely diagnosis of all people with HIV as early as possible after infection. To end the HIV epidemic, health departments were encouraged to propose new and innovative HIV testing strategies and improve the reach of existing programs. These activities were divided into 3 core strategies: expansion of routine screening in healthcare settings, locally tailored HIV testing initiatives in nonhealthcare settings, and specific efforts to increase the frequency of testing for individuals with increased potential for acquiring HIV. Because HIV testing is such a crucial part of the core activities of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HIV prevention programs, there are many examples of evidence-based programs and best practices for HIV testing in both clinical and nonclinical settings. This article reviews the evidence base for these strategies and some of the activities proposed under the Diagnose pillar to achieve the goal of diagnosing all HIV infections as early as possible. All other Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. activities start with an awareness of HIV status, which is actually the indicator for which most health departments are closest to the proposed targets. There are both proven and emerging approaches to increasing HIV screening and increasing the frequency of HIV screening available. The Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative provides the motivation, the resources, and a coordinated plan to bring them to scale.

Estimated time from HIV infection to diagnosis and diagnosis to first viral suppression during 2014-2018

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in the lengths of time from HIV infection to diagnosis (Infx-to-Dx) and from diagnosis to first viral suppression (Dx-to-VS), two periods during which HIV can be transmitted.

DESIGN

Data from the National HIV Surveillance System (NHSS) for persons who were aged at least 13 years at the time of HIV diagnosis during 2014-2018 and resided in one of 33 United States jurisdictions with complete laboratory reporting.

METHODS

The date of HIV infection was estimated based on a CD4+-depletion model. Date of HIV diagnosis, and dates and results of first CD4+ test and first viral suppression (<200 copies/ml) after diagnosis were reported to NHSS through December 2019. Trends for Infx-to-Dx and Dx-to-VS intervals were examined using estimated annual percentage change.

RESULTS

During 2014-2018, among persons aged at least 13 years, 133 413 HIV diagnoses occurred. The median length of infx-to-Dx interval shortened from 43 months (2014) to 40 months (2018), a 1.5% annual decrease (7% relative change over the 5-year period). The median length of Dx-to-VS interval shortened from 7 months (2014) to 4 months (2018), an 11.4% annual decrease (42.9% relative change over the 5-year period). Infx-to-Dx intervals shortened in only some subgroups, whereas Dx-to-VS intervals shortened in all groups by sex, transmission category, race/ethnicity, age, and CD4+ count at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The shortened Infx-to-Dx and Dx-to-VS intervals suggest progress in promoting HIV testing and earlier treatment; however, diagnosis delays continue to be substantial. Further shortening both intervals and eliminating disparities are needed to achieve Ending the HIV Epidemic goals.

Estimates of the Time From Seroconversion to Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus From 2006 to 2015, New York City

BACKGROUND

We estimated the time from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during an era of expanding HIV testing and treatment efforts.

METHODS

Applying CD4 depletion parameters from seroconverter cohort data to our population-based sample, we related the square root of the first pretreatment CD4 count to time of seroconversion through a linear mixed model and estimated the time from seroconversion.

RESULTS

Among 28 162 people diagnosed with HIV during 2006-2015, 89% initiated ART by June 2017. The median CD4 count at diagnosis increased from 326 (interquartile range [IQR], 132-504) cells/µL to 390 (IQR, 216-571) cells/µL from 2006 to 2015. The median time from estimated seroconversion to ART initiation decreased by 42% from 6.4 (IQR, 3.3-11.4) years in 2006 to 3.7 (IQR, 0.5-8.3) years in 2015. The time from estimated seroconversion to diagnosis decreased by 28%, from a median of 4.6 (IQR, 0.5-10.5) years to 3.3 (IQR, 0-8.1) years from 2006 to 2015, and the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced by 60%, from a median of 0.5 (IQR, 0.2-2.1) years to 0.2 (IQR, 0.1-0.3) years from 2006 to 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated time from seroconversion to ART initiation was reduced in tandem with expanded HIV testing and treatment efforts. While the time from diagnosis to ART initiation decreased to 0.2 years, the time from seroconversion to diagnosis was 3.3 years among people diagnosed in 2015, highlighting the need for more effective strategies for earlier HIV diagnosis.

Incident and Prevalent HIV Infections Attributed to Sexual Transmission in the United States, 2018

BACKGROUND

The Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America initiative aims to reduce new infections by 2030. Routine assessment of incident and prevalent HIV by transmission risk is essential for monitoring the impact of national, state, and local efforts to end the HIV epidemic.

METHODS

Data reported to the National HIV Surveillance System were used to estimate numbers of incident and prevalent HIV infection attributed to sexual transmission in the United States in 2018. The first CD4 result after diagnosis and a CD4 depletion model were used to generate estimates by transmission category, sex at birth, age group, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

In 2018, there were an estimated 32,600 (50% confidence interval [CI], 31,800-33,400) incident and 984,000 (50% CI, 977,000-990,900) prevalent HIV infections attributed to sexual transmission in the United States. Male-to-male sexual contact comprised 74.8% and 69.1% of incident and prevalent HIV infections, respectively. Persons aged 25 to 34 years comprised 39.6% (12,900; 50% CI, 12,400-13,400) of incident infections; however, the number of prevalent infections was highest among persons 55 years and older (29.3%; 288,300 [50% CI, 285,600-291,000]). There were racial/ethnic differences in numbers of incident and prevalent infections among both men who have sex with men and persons with HIV attributable to heterosexual contact.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2018, most incident sexually transmitted HIV infections occurred in men who have sex with men, and the burden was disproportionate for persons aged 24 to 35 years, and Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino adults and adolescents. Efforts to increase the use of effective biomedical and behavioral prevention methods must be intensified to reach the goal to end the HIV epidemic in the United States.

Assessing linear CD4 decline quantifying diagnosis delay after HIV seroconversion: assessing the linearity assumption of CD4 decline

PURPOSE

To estimate time from seroconversion to diagnosis, researchers have modeled time based on CD4 decline, assuming the square root of the CD4 count decreases linearly over time before antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. If true, utilizing CD4 counts reported anytime in the pre-ART period would result in estimates of diagnosis delay that are not appreciably different.

METHODS

We applied CD4 depletion model parameters from seroconverter cohorts to New York City residents diagnosed from 2006 to 2015, having two or more pre-ART CD4 counts.

RESULTS

Median diagnosis delays based on first or second pre-ART CD4 counts were similar (n = 12,849; 2.8 years, interquartile range [IQR]: 0-7.7, and 2.8 years, IQR: 0-7.6, respectively; P = .09, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). Among people whose second pre-ART CD4 count was measured more than 6 months after diagnosis (n = 2761), the average diagnosis delay based on first pre-ART CD4 count was shorter (1.5 years, IQR: 0-5.4) than the second pre-ART CD4 count (1.7 years, IQR: 0-6.0) but not significantly (P = .12).

CONCLUSIONS

Results are consistent with the linearity assumption of the CD4 depletion model. To estimate population-level diagnosis delay, researchers may use pre-ART CD4 counts reported more than 6 months post-diagnosis.

Very High HIV Incidence and Associated Risk Factors in a Longitudinal Cohort Study of Diverse Adolescent and Young Adult Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgender Women

To report HIV incidence and associated factors among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and transgender women (TW). Data were collected February 2015 to July 2018 in the RADAR longitudinal cohort study of YMSM/TW aged 16-29 years (N = 1093). Data included tests for HIV and rectal STIs and self-reported sexual behaviors and networks characteristics. HIV incidence rates were 2.91 per 100 person years (44 seroconversions among 1513 person years). Incidence was significantly higher in Black participants than white (IRR 8.81; 95% CI 2.72-45.26) and Latinx (IRR 3.15; 1.49-7.28) participants, but no significant differences by gender identity were found. Testing positive for rectal STIs (HR 2.50; 95% CI 1.27-4.92) and sex with a partner from a high HIV incidence community area (HR 2.46; 95% CI 1.19-5.07) were associated with higher incidence. HIV incidence was very high and Black YMSM/TW experienced higher HIV incidence attributable to partner race and geographic residence. Rectal STIs were associated with increased HIV incidence.

Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review

Estimating HIV incidence is crucial for monitoring the epidemiology of this infection, planning screening and intervention campaigns, and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures. However, owing to the long and variable period from HIV infection to the development of AIDS and the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, accurate incidence estimation remains a major challenge. Numerous estimation methods have been proposed in epidemiological modeling studies, and here we review commonly-used methods for estimation of HIV incidence. We review the essential data required for estimation along with the advantages and disadvantages, mathematical structures and likelihood derivations of these methods. The methods include the classical back-calculation method, the method based on CD4+ T-cell depletion, the use of HIV case reporting data, the use of cohort study data, the use of serial or cross-sectional prevalence data, and biomarker approach. By outlining the mechanistic features of each method, we provide guidance for planning incidence estimation efforts, which may depend on national or regional factors as well as the availability of epidemiological or laboratory datasets.

Estimating the First 90 of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 Goal: A Review

Estimating the population with undiagnosed HIV (PUHIV) is the most methodologically challenging aspect of evaluating 90-90-90 goals. The objective of this review is to discuss assumptions, strengths, and shortcomings of currently available methods of this estimation. Articles from 2000 to 2018 on methods to estimate PUHIV were reviewed. Back-calculation methods including CD4 depletion and test-retest use diagnosis CD4 count, or previous testing history to determine likely infection time thus, providing an estimate of PUHIV for previous years. Biomarker methods use immunoassays to differentiate recent from older infections. Statistical techniques treat HIV status as missing data and impute data for models of infection. Lastly, population surveys using HIV rapid testing most accurately calculates the current HIV prevalence. Although multiple methods exist to estimate the number of PUHIV, the appropriate method for future applications depends on multiple factors, namely data availability and population of interest.

Identifying Clusters of Recent and Rapid HIV Transmission Through Analysis of Molecular Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Detecting recent and rapid spread of HIV can help prioritize prevention and early treatment for those at highest risk of transmission. HIV genetic sequence data can identify transmission clusters, but previous approaches have not distinguished clusters of recent, rapid transmission. We assessed an analytic approach to identify such clusters in the United States.

METHODS

We analyzed 156,553 partial HIV-1 polymerase sequences reported to the National HIV Surveillance System and inferred transmission clusters using 2 genetic distance thresholds (0.5% and 1.5%) and 2 periods for diagnoses (all years and 2013-2015, ie, recent diagnoses). For rapidly growing clusters (with ≥5 diagnoses during 2015), molecular clock phylogenetic analysis estimated the time to most recent common ancestor for all divergence events within the cluster. Cluster transmission rates were estimated using these phylogenies.

RESULTS

A distance threshold of 1.5% identified 103 rapidly growing clusters using all diagnoses and 73 using recent diagnoses; at 0.5%, 15 clusters were identified using all diagnoses and 13 using recent diagnoses. Molecular clock analysis estimated that the 13 clusters identified at 0.5% using recent diagnoses had been diversifying for a median of 4.7 years, compared with 6.5-13.2 years using other approaches. The 13 clusters at 0.5% had a transmission rate of 33/100 person-years, compared with previous national estimates of 4/100 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach identified clusters with transmission rates 8 times those of previous national estimates. This method can identify groups involved in rapid transmission and help programs effectively direct and prioritize limited public health resources.

How to Evolve the Response to the Global HIV Epidemic With New Metrics and Targets Based on Pre-Treatment CD4 Counts

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV following seroconversion improves individual and population health. Using published data on pre-treatment CD4 cell counts, we benchmarked the level of immunodeficiency at HIV diagnosis and ART initiation in the "real world" against those of the treatment and control arms of landmark controlled trials that successfully reduced HIV-related deaths (INSIGHT/START) and onward HIV transmission (HPTN 052).

RECENT FINDINGS

The median CD4 count in the treatment vs. control arms of the INSIGHT/START trial and HPTN 052 were 650 vs. 408 cells/μL and 442 vs. 221 cells/μL, respectively. In the real world, recent global estimates of the median CD4 count at start of ART range from 234 to 350 cells/μL, and only 25% of those initiating ART do so early (i.e., with CD4 > 500 cells/μL). Recent global data on trends in the median CD4 count at diagnosis and ART initiation are not encouraging. We identify a critical need for new targets and metrics for persons newly diagnosed with HIV, newly enrolling in HIV care, and newly initiating ART, based on pre-treatment CD4 counts, to help increase the focus of implementation efforts on achieving earlier diagnosis, linkage to care, and ART initiation.

Trends in medication adherence in HIV patients in the US, 2001 to 2012: an observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is essential to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality as well as the risk of virological failure and HIV transmission. We determined the trends in ART adherence during the periods of therapeutic advances, wider use of ART and greater attention to ART adherence. To understand the general trends in medication adherence, we compared ART adherence with medications for other common chronic conditions.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using Medicaid claims between 2001 and 2012 from 14 US states with the highest HIV prevalence. Medicaid is the largest source of care for HIV patients in the US. We identified Medicaid beneficiaries with HIV who initiated ART between 2001 and 2010 (n=23,343). Comparison groups included (1) HIV- persons who initiated a statin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ACEI/ARB), or metformin and (2) HIV+ persons who initiated these control medications while on and not on ART. We estimated adjusted odds of >90% medication implementation during the two years following initiation.

RESULTS

The proportion of HIV+ persons with >90% ART implementation increased from 33.5% in those who initiated in 2001 to 46.4% in 2005 and 52.4% in 2010. ART initiators in 2007 to 2010 had 53% increased odds of >90% implementation compared to those in 2001 to 2003 (adjusted OR 1.53, 99% CI: 1.34 to 1.75). Older age, male, White race, newer ART regimens and absence of substance use indicators were also associated with increased odds of >90% ART implementation. No or minimal improvements were found in the implementation of control medications in HIV- persons. For HIV- persons, the adjusted ORs comparing 2007-2010 to 2001-2003 were 1.06, 1.01 and 1.19 for statins, ACEI/ARB, metformin respectively. HIV+ persons who were on ART had, on average, 15.0 (SD: 4.2) and 16.1 (SD: 3.4) percentage points higher >90% implementation rates of concurrent statins, ACEI/ARB or metformin compared to HIV- persons and HIV+ persons who were not on ART respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to ART substantially improved between 2001 and 2012. Nevertheless, the absolute rates of >90% implementation were low for all groups examined. Substantial disparities by age, sex and race were present, drawing attention to the need to continue to enhance medication adherence. Further studies are required to examine whether these trends and disparities persist in the most recent period.

HIV diagnoses and testing patterns among young gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men: an analysis of HIV surveillance data in British Columbia, 2008-2015

BACKGROUND

We examined changes in HIV testing indicators following a recent increase in diagnoses among young gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in BC that accompanied implementation of a provincial HIV strategy.

METHOD

Surveillance and laboratory testing data were used to compare case counts and testing characteristics among GBMSM < 30 and ≥ 30 years diagnosed in 2008-2011 and 2012-2015. We tested differences in the proportion diagnosed on first testing episode, proportion diagnosed at late stage of infection and the median inter-test interval ((ITI) time in months between last negative test and first positive test) using χ² and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.

RESULTS

In 2008-2011, 657 diagnoses were made among GBMSM: 24% among men < 30 years and 76% among men ≥ 30 years. In 2012-2015, 590 diagnoses were made: 28% among < 30 years and 28% among ≥ 30 years. Among men < 30 years, diagnoses made on first testing episode decreased (39.4% vs. 28.7% in 2012-2015; p = 0.042) and there were few late-stage diagnoses (5.1% in 2008-2011 vs. 9.1% in 2012-2015). The median ITI was 10 months in both periods. No changes were observed over time among men ≥ 30 years. However, in both periods, late-stage diagnosis was more common in men ≥ 30 years (2008-2011, 18.8%; 2012-2015, 18.6%; p < 0.01 for both). The ITI was also longer for men ≥ 30 years (2008-2011, 24.5 months; 2012-2015, 20 months; p < 0.001 for both).

CONCLUSION

Testing indicators suggested better testing practices among GBMSM diagnosed at < 30 years compared to those diagnosed at older ages. However, there are clear needs for additional prevention measures in both age groups.

Epidemiology of Perinatal HIV Transmission in the United States in the Era of Its Elimination

The number of infants born with HIV in the United States has decreased for years, approaching the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's incidence goal for eliminating perinatal HIV transmission. We reviewed recent literature on perinatal HIV transmission in the United States. Among perinatally HIV-exposed infants (whose mothers have HIV, without regard to infants' HIV diagnosis), prenatal and natal antiretroviral use has increased, maternal HIV infection is more frequently diagnosed before pregnancy and breast-feeding is uncommon. In contrast, mothers of infants with HIV are tested at a lower rate for HIV, receive prenatal care less often, receive antiretrovirals (prenatal and natal) less often and breastfeed more often. The incidence of perinatal HIV remains 5 times as high among black than white infants. The annual number of births to women with HIV was estimated last for 2006 (8700) but has likely decreased. The numbers of women of childbearing age living with HIV and HIV diagnoses have decreased. The estimated time from HIV infection to diagnosis remains long among women and men who acquired HIV heterosexually. It is important to review the epidemiology and to continue monitoring outcomes and other health indicators for reproductive age adults living with HIV and their infants.

Comparative analysis of HIV sequences in real time for public health

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this study is to summarize recent advances in public health applications of comparative methods for HIV-1 sequence analysis in real time, including genetic clustering methods.

RECENT FINDINGS

Over the past 2 years, several groups have reported the deployment of established genetic clustering methods to guide public health decisions for HIV prevention in 'near real time'. However, it remains unresolved how well the readouts of comparative methods like clusters translate to events that are actionable for public health. A small number of recent studies have begun to elucidate the linkage between clusters and HIV-1 incidence, whereas others continue to refine and develop new comparative methods for such applications.

SUMMARY

Although the use of established methods to cluster HIV-1 sequence databases has become a widespread activity, there remains a critical gap between clusters and public health value.

A METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE PROPORTION OF HIV INFECTED PERSONS THAT HAVE BEEN DIAGNOSED AND APPLICATION TO CHINA

Estimation of the proportion of living HIV infected persons that have been diagnosed is critical for tracking progress toward meeting the UNAIDS goal that all persons who need HIV treatment receive it. The objective of this article is to develop a method for estimating that proportion. The methodological problem is that persons with undiagnosed HIV infection are not directly observable and are a "hidden" population. Here we propose a methodology for estimating the proportion diagnosed that is relatively simple to implement. The key idea is that in many settings certain health conditions such as pregnancy or an upcoming surgery lead to mandatory HIV tests. The size of the undiagnosed infected population can be estimated from the numbers of infected persons diagnosed by mandatory tests and an estimate of the rate that persons in the undiagnosed infected population receive mandatory tests. We discuss approaches for estimating the rate of mandatory testing in the undiagnosed population, such as surgical or pregnancy rates. We develop estimators of the proportion diagnosed and confidence interval procedures. Sample size considerations and sensitivity analyses to underlying assumptions are considered. The proposed methods can be performed at a local level and within demographic strata. Implementation of the method is simple and requires neither historical HIV/AIDS surveillance data nor biomarkers such as CD4 cell counts. The methods are applied to data from Dehong Prefecture in Yunnan Province, China.

Earlier diagnoses and faster treatment of HIV in the District of Columbia: HIV surveillance analysis, 2006-2016

To address high HIV prevalence, the District of Columbia (DC) Department of Health has implemented multiple strategies to increase routine HIV testing since 2006. Examination of delayed HIV diagnosis over time can demonstrate population-level impact of public health strategies to promote HIV testing. Using HIV surveillance data, we examined delayed HIV diagnosis in DC (stage 3 within 90 days of diagnosis), CD4 count at HIV diagnosis, linkage to HIV care, and time to viral suppression among DC residents age 13 and above who were diagnosed from 2006 to 2016.  We used the Cochran-Armitage test of trend, Cuzick's test of trend, and Chi-square for univariate analyses, and we examined factors associated with delayed HIV diagnosis using a log-binomial multivariate model. 7,937 DC residents were diagnosed with HIV and had available data.  Between 2006 and 2016, delayed HIV diagnoses declined from 36.4% to 25.5%, median CD4 count increased from 190 cells/µl to 426 cells/µl, and median time from HIV diagnosis to viral suppression declined from 1,136 days to 84 days.  Women, youth ages 13-29, and men who have sex with men had lower proportions with delayed HIV diagnosis. In the multivariate models, racial/ethnic disparities in delayed HIV diagnoses were apparent during 2006-2008 but not during 2009-2016. Continued efforts around earlier HIV testing are needed in DC.

Ancillary service needs among persons new to HIV care and the relationship between needs and late presentation to care

Ancillary service needs likely influence time to diagnosis and presentation for HIV care. The effect of both met and unmet needs on late presentation to HIV care is not well understood. We used baseline data from 348 people with HIV (PWH) with no prior HIV care who enrolled in iENGAGE (a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of an intervention to support retention in care) at one of four HIV clinics in the US. A standardized baseline questionnaire collected information on ancillary service needs, and whether each need was presently unmet. We examined covariates known to be associated with disease stage at presentation to care and their association with needs. We subsequently assessed the relationship of needs with CD4 accounting for those other covariates by estimating prevalence ratios (PR) using inverse probability weights. Most patients enrolling in the RCT were male (79%) and the majority were Black (62%); median age was 34 years. Prevalence of any reported individual need was 69%. One-third of the sample had a baseline CD4 cell count <200, 42% between 200 and 499 and 27% ≥500. There was no statistically significant association between need or unmet need and baseline CD4. In general, psychiatric health and SU issues (depression, anxiety, and drug use) were consistently associated with higher prevalence of need (met and unmet). Additionally, the Black race was associated with higher basic resource needs (housing: PR 1.67, 95%CI 1.08-2.59; transportation: PR 1.65, 95% CI 1.12-2.45). Ancillary service needs (met and unmet) were common among patients new to HIV care and impacted vulnerable subgroups. However, we found no evidence that reporting a specific individual need, whether met or unmet, was associated with a timely presentation to HIV care. The impact of needs on subsequent steps of the HIV care continuum will be examined with longitudinal data.

Routine HIV testing program in the University Infectious Diseases Centre in Lithuania: a four-year analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV transmission remains a major concern in Eastern Europe, and too many people are diagnosed late. Expanded testing strategies and early and appropriate access to care are required. Infectious disease departments might be targets for expanded HIV testing owing to the intense passage of key patient populations that carry indicators of HIV disease. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility and clinical effectiveness of a fully integrated, opt-out routine, rapid HIV testing program.

METHODS

A retrospective four-year study of a screening program was conducted from 2010 through 2014. The program was divided into two periods: from 2010 to 2012 (pilot study) and from 2013 to 2014. The pilot study consisted of routine HIV testing of patients aged 18-55 that were hospitalized in one department. In the second period, all inpatients aged 18-65 were eligible. Targeted testing was conducted in the other inpatient department during the pilot study and the outpatient department during both periods.

RESULTS

During the pilot study, 2203 patients were hospitalized, 1314 (59.6%) were eligible, 954 (72.6%) were tested, and 3 (0.31%) were newly diagnosed HIV-positive. In the second period, 4911 patients were hospitalized, 3727 (75.9%) were eligible, 3303 (88.6%) were tested, and 7 (0.21%) were HIV-positive. In total, 2800 targeted tests were performed, and 4 (0.14%) patients tested positive with newly discovered HIV. All 14 newly diagnosed patients were provided with care. Comparing cumulative groups of routine and targeted testing, the HIV prevalence was 0.23% vs. 0.14% (p = 0.40) and was above the reported cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.1% (p = 0.012). A lower proportion of advanced disease and a higher proportion of heterosexually transmitted infection were found in the routine testing group.

CONCLUSION

Routine HIV testing in admissions of infectious diseases is acceptable, feasible, sustainable and clinically effective. Compared to targeted testing, routine testing helped to discover more patients in earlier stages and those with heterosexually transmitted HIV infection.

Duration of Human Immunodef iciency Virus Infection at Diagnosis among New Human Immunodef iciency Virus Cases in Dehong, Yunnan, China, 2008-2015

Background:

On diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, a person may have been infected already for many years. This study aimed to estimate the duration of HIV infection at the time of diagnosis.

Methods:

Newly diagnosed HIV cases in Dehong, China, from 2008 to 2015 were studied. Duration of infection at the time of diagnosis was calculated using the first CD4 cell count result after diagnosis and a CD4 depletion model of disease progression. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to investigate the associated risk factors.

Results:

A total of 5867 new HIV cases were enrolled. Overall, mean duration of infection was 6.3 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.2, 6.5). After adjusting for confounding, significantly shorter durations of infection were observed among participants who were female (beta: −0.37, 95% CI: −0.64, −0.09), Dai ethnicity (beta: −0.28, 95% CI: −0.57, 0.01), and infected through injecting drug use (beta: −1.82, 95% CI: −2.25, −1.39). Compared to the hospital setting, durations were shorter for those diagnosed in any other settings, and compared to 2008, durations were shorter for those diagnosed all years after 2010.

Results:

A total of 5867 new HIV cases were enrolled. Overall, mean duration of infection was 6.3 years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.2, 6.5). After adjusting for confounding, significantly shorter durations of infection were observed among participants who were female (beta: −0.37, 95% CI: −0.64, −0.09), Dai ethnicity (beta: −0.28, 95% CI: −0.57, 0.01), and infected through injecting drug use (beta: −1.82, 95% CI: −2.25, −1.39). Compared to the hospital setting, durations were shorter for those diagnosed in any other settings, and compared to 2008, durations were shorter for those diagnosed all years after 2010.

Conclusion:

Although the reduction in duration of infection at the time of diagnosis observed in Dehong was significant, it may not have had a meaningful impact.

Effects of HIV Infection, methamphetamine dependence and age on cortical thickness, area and volume

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the effects of HIV infection, methamphetamine dependence and their interaction on cortical thickness, area and volume, as well as the potential interactive effects on cortical morphometry of HIV and methamphetamine with age.

METHOD

T1-weighted structural images were obtained on a 3.0T General Electric MR750 scanner. Freesurfer v5.3.0 was used to derive cortical thickness, area and volume measures in thirty-four regions based on Desikan-Killiany atlas labels.

RESULTS

Following correction for multiple statistical tests, HIV diagnosis was not significantly related to cortical thickness or area in any ROI, although smaller global cortical area and volume were seen in those with lower nadir CD4 count. HIV diagnosis, nevertheless, was associated with smaller mean cortical volumes in rostral middle frontal gyrus and in the inferior and superior parietal lobes. Methamphetamine dependence was significantly associated with thinner cortex especially in posterior cingulate gyrus, but was not associated with cortical area or volume following correction for multiple statistical tests. We found little evidence that methamphetamine dependence moderated differences in cortical area, volume or thickness for any ROI in the HIV seropositive group. Interactions with age revealed that HIV diagnosis attenuated the degree of age-related cortical thinning seen in non-infected individuals; intercepts indicated that young HIV seropositive individuals had thinner cortex than non-infected peers.

CONCLUSIONS

Methamphetamine dependence does not appear to potentiate a reduction of cortical area, volume or thickness in HIV seropositive individuals. The finding of thinner cortex in young HIV seropositive individuals and the association between CD4 nadir and global cortical area and volume argue for prioritizing early antiretroviral treatment.

Vital Signs: Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing and Diagnosis Delays - United States

Background

Persons unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection account for approximately 40% of ongoing transmissions in the United States. Persons are unaware of their infection because of delayed HIV diagnoses that represent substantial missed opportunities to improve health outcomes and prevent HIV transmission.

Methods

Data from CDC’s National HIV Surveillance System were used to estimate, among persons with HIV infection diagnosed in 2015, the median interval (and range) from infection to diagnosis (diagnosis delay), based on the first CD4 test after HIV diagnosis and a CD4 depletion model indicating disease progression and, among persons living with HIV in 2015, the percentage with undiagnosed infection. Data from CDC’s National HIV Behavioral Surveillance were analyzed to determine the percentage of persons at increased risk for HIV infection who had tested in the past 12 months and who had missed opportunities for testing.

Results

An estimated 15% of persons living with HIV in 2015 were unaware of their infection. Among the 39,720 persons with HIV infection diagnosed in 2015, the estimated median diagnosis delay was 3.0 years (interquartile range = 0.7–7.8 years); diagnosis delay varied by race/ethnicity (from 2.2 years among whites to 4.2 years among Asians) and transmission category (from 2.0 years among females who inject drugs to 4.9 years among heterosexual males). Among persons interviewed through National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, 71% of men who have sex with men, 58% of persons who inject drugs, and 41% of heterosexual persons at increased risk for HIV infection reported testing in the past 12 months. In each risk group, at least two thirds of persons who did not have an HIV test had seen a health care provider in the past year.

Conclusions

Delayed HIV diagnoses continue to be substantial for some population groups and prevent early entry to care to improve health outcomes and reduce HIV transmission to others.

Implications for Public Health Practice

Health care providers and others providing HIV testing can reduce HIV-related adverse health outcomes and risk for HIV transmission by implementing routine and targeted HIV testing to decrease diagnosis delays.

A Flow-Based Model of the HIV Care Continuum in the United States

BACKGROUND

Understanding the flow of patients through the continuum of HIV care is critical to determine how best to intervene so that the proportion of HIV-infected persons who are on antiretroviral treatment and virally suppressed is as large as possible.

METHODS

Using immunological and virological data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009 to 2012, we estimated the distribution of time spent in and dropout probability from each stage in the continuum of HIV care. We used these estimates to develop a queueing model for the expected number of patients found in each stage of the cascade.

RESULTS

HIV-infected individuals spend an average of about 3.1 months after HIV diagnosis before being linked to care, or dropping out of that stage of the continuum with a probability of 8%. Those who link to care wait an additional 3.7 months on average before getting their second set of laboratory results (indicating engagement in care) or dropping out of care with probability of almost 6%. Those engaged in care spent an average of almost 1 year before achieving viral suppression on antiretroviral therapy or dropping out with average probability 13%. For patients who achieved viral suppression, the average time suppressed on antiretroviral therapy was an average of 4.5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions should be targeted to more rapidly identifying newly infected individuals, and increasing the fraction of those engaged in care that achieves viral suppression.

Looking Beyond the Cascade of HIV Care to End the AIDS Epidemic: Estimation of the Time Interval From HIV Infection to Viral Suppression

BACKGROUND

Ensuring early universal access to HIV treatment is critical to reach the end of AIDS. The cascade of HIV care has become a critical metric to assess the coverage of treatment and viral suppression, but it does not provide any information on the elapsed times between becoming HIV-infected and reaching viral suppression.

METHODS

We estimated the cascade of care, the distribution of times between steps of the care continuum, in France, in 2010, at the national level, overall and by HIV exposure groups, using statistical modelling and large datasets: the national HIV surveillance system, the general social insurance scheme, and the French Hospital Database on HIV.

RESULTS

We found that the overall rate of viral suppression was high, with an estimated value of 52% (95% confidence interval: 49 to 54). However, the time intervals from HIV infection to viral suppression were long; overall, the median value was 6.1 years (inter quartile range: 3.6-9.2), and it ranged from ∼5.6 years among men who have sex with men and heterosexual women to 9.6 years among injection drug users. Time lost in achieving viral suppression was mainly due to delays in HIV testing (overall median of 3.4 years), except for injection drug users where it was also due to delayed care entry once diagnosed (∼1 year in median versus <1 month for other groups).

CONCLUSIONS

High viral suppression rate can hide large gaps between time of HIV infection and time of viral suppression. Estimates of the flow-time between steps of the care continuum should become priority indicators to identify these gaps and monitor whether interventions are successful in closing them.

Using CD4 Data to Estimate HIV Incidence, Prevalence, and Percent of Undiagnosed Infections in the United States

INTRODUCTION

The incidence and prevalence of HIV infection are important measures of HIV trends; however, they are difficult to estimate because of the long incubation period between infection and symptom development and the relative infrequency of HIV screening. A new method is introduced to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and the number of undiagnosed infections in the United States using data from the HIV case surveillance system and CD4 test results.

METHODS

Persons with HIV diagnosed during 2006-2013 and their CD4 test results were used to estimate the distribution of diagnosis delay from HIV infection to diagnosis based on a well-characterized CD4 depletion model. This distribution was then used to estimate HIV incidence, prevalence, and the number of undiagnosed infections.

RESULTS

Applying this method, we estimated that the annual number of new HIV infections decreased after 2007, from 48,300 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 47,300 to 49,400) to 39,000 (95% CI: 36,600 to 41,400) in 2013. Prevalence increased from 923,200 (95% CI: 914,500 to 931,800) in 2006 to 1,104,600 (95% CI: 1,084,300 to 1,124,900) in 2013, whereas the proportion of undiagnosed infections decreased from 21.0% in 2006 (95% CI: 20.2% to 21.7%) to 16.4% (95% CI: 15.7% to 17.2%) in 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV incidence, prevalence, and undiagnosed infections can be estimated using HIV case surveillance data and information on first CD4 test result after diagnosis. Similar to earlier findings, the decreases in incidence and undiagnosed infections are encouraging but intensified efforts for HIV testing and treatment are needed to meet the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Sustained Reduction in HIV Diagnoses in Massachusetts, 2000-2014

OBJECTIVES

To describe secular trends in reported HIV diagnoses in Massachusetts concurrent with treatment access expansion.

METHODS

We characterized cases of HIV infection reported to the Massachusetts HIV/AIDS Surveillance Program between 2000 and 2014 by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and exposure mode. We used Poisson regression to test the statistical significance of trends in diagnoses.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2014, annual new HIV infections diagnosed in Massachusetts decreased by 47% (P < .001 for trend). We observed significant reductions in diagnoses among women (58% when comparing 2000 with 2014), men (42%), Whites (54%), Blacks (51%), and Hispanics (35%; P < .001 for trend). New diagnoses decreased significantly among men who have sex with men (19%), persons who inject drugs (91%), and heterosexuals (86%; P < .001 for trend). We saw statistically significant downward trends among all men by race/ethnicity, but the trend among Black men who have sex with men was nonsignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

Sustained reduction in new HIV diagnoses was concurrent with Massachusetts's Medicaid expansion, state health care reform, and public health strategies to improve care access. A contributory effect of expanded HIV treatment and population-level viral suppression is hypothesized for future research.

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence

Background

The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends.

Objective

The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods.

Methods

Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM).

Results

On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (P<.001). Adjusting for reporting delays, diagnoses decreased 3.1% per year (P<.001). The CD4 model estimated an annual decrease in incidence of 4.6% (P<.001) and the Bayesian hierarchical model 2.6% (P<.001); the stratified extrapolation approach estimated a stable incidence. During these years, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM.

Conclusions

HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all race or ethnicity groups. Further progress depends on effectively reducing HIV incidence among MSM, among whom the majority of new infections occur.

Pregnancy and linkage to care among women diagnosed with HIV infection in 61 CDC-funded health departments in the United States, 2013

Timely linkage to HIV care (LTC) following an HIV diagnosis is especially important for pregnant women with HIV to prevent perinatal transmission and improve maternal health. However, limited data are available on LTC among U.S. pregnant women. Our analysis aimed to identify HIV diagnoses among childbearing age (CBA) women (15-44 years old) by pregnancy status and to compare LTC of HIV-infected pregnant women to HIV-infected non-pregnant women. We analyzed 2013 CDC-funded HIV testing data from 61 health departments and 151 directly funded community-based organizations among CBA women. LTC includes linkage at any time after an HIV diagnosis and within 90 days after HIV diagnosis. Pearson's chi-square was used to compare LTC of pregnant and non-pregnant women. Data were analyzed using SAS v9.3. Among the 1,379,860 HIV testing events among CBA women in 2013, 0.3% (n = 3690) were HIV-positive. Among all HIV-positive diagnoses with an available pregnancy status (n = 1987), 7%, (n = 138) were pregnant. Among women with pregnancy status data, LTC any time after an HIV-positive diagnosis was 73.2% for pregnant women and 60.7% for non-pregnant women. LTC within 90 days was 71.7% for pregnant women and 56.2% for non-pregnant women. Pregnancy was associated with LTC any time (p < 0.01) and within 90 days of diagnosis (p < 0.01). Compared with non-pregnant women, a higher proportion of pregnant women with HIV were linked to care overall, and linked within 90 days. Pregnancy appears to facilitate better LTC, but improvements are needed for women overall and pregnant women specifically.

Time Until Emergence of HIV Test Reactivity Following Infection With HIV-1: Implications for Interpreting Test Results and Retesting After Exposure

BACKGROUND

 Understanding the period of time between an exposure resulting in infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and when a test can reliably detect the presence of that infection, that is, the test window period, may benefit testing programs and clinicians in counseling patients about when the clinician and the patient can be confident a suspected exposure did not result in HIV infection.

METHODS

 We evaluated the intervals between reactivity of the Aptima HIV-1 RNA test (Aptima) and 20 US Food and Drug Administration-approved HIV immunoassays using 222 longitudinally collected plasma specimens from HIV-1 seroconverters from the United States. Using interval-censored survival and binomial regression approaches a multi-model framework was implemented to estimate the relative emergence of test reactivity, referred to here as an inter-test reactivity interval (ITRI). We then combined ITRI results with simulated data for the eclipse period, the time between exposure and detection of HIV virus by Aptima, to estimate the window period for each test.

RESULTS

 The estimated ITRIs were shorter with each new class of HIV tests, ranging from 5.9 to 24.8 days. The 99^th percentiles of the window period probability distribution ranged from 44 days for laboratory screening tests that detect both antigen and antibody to 65 days for the Western blot test.

CONCLUSIONS

 Our directly comparable estimates of the emergence of reactivity for 20 immunoassays are valuable to testing providers for interpreting negative HIV test results obtained shortly after exposure, and for counseling individuals on when to retest after an exposure.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in Older Adults

Improved survival with combination antiretroviral therapy has led to a dramatic increase in the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals 50 years of age or older such that by 2020 more than 50% of HIV-infected persons in the United States will be above this age. Recent studies confirm that antiretroviral therapy should be offered to all HIV-infected patients regardless of age, symptoms, CD4+ cell count, or HIV viral load. However, when compared with HIV-uninfected populations, even with suppression of measurable HIV replication, older individuals are at greater risk for cardiovascular disease, malignancies, liver disease, and other comorbidities.

Late Diagnosis of HIV Infection in Metropolitan Areas of the United States and Puerto Rico

The majority of persons infected with HIV live in large metropolitan areas and many such areas have implemented intensified HIV testing programs. A national indicator of HIV testing outcomes is late diagnosis of HIV infection (stage 3, AIDS). Based on National HIV Surveillance System data, 23.3 % of persons with HIV diagnosed in 2012 had a late diagnosis in large MSAs, 26.3 % in smaller MSAs, and 29.6 % in non-metropolitan areas. In the 105 large MSAs, the percentage diagnosed late ranged from 13.2 to 47.4 %. During 2003-2012, the percentage diagnosed late decreased in large MSAs (32.2-23.3 %), with significant decreases in 41 of 105 MSAs overall and among men who have sex with men. Sustained testing efforts may help to continue the decreasing trend in late-stage HIV diagnosis and provide opportunities for early care and treatment and potential reduction in HIV transmission.

How many people are living with undiagnosed HIV infection? An estimate for Italy, based on surveillance data

Objective:

To estimate the size and characteristics of the undiagnosed HIV population in Italy in 2012 applying a method that does not require surveillance data from the beginning of the HIV epidemic.

Methods:

We adapted the method known as ‘London method 2’; the undiagnosed population is estimated as the ratio between the estimated annual number of simultaneous HIV/clinical AIDS diagnoses and the expected annual progression rate to clinical AIDS in the undiagnosed HIV population; the latter is estimated using the CD4⁺ cell count distribution of asymptomatic patients reported to surveillance. Under-reporting/ascertainment of new diagnoses was also considered. Also, the total number of people living with HIV was estimated.

Results:

The undiagnosed HIV population in 2012 was 13 729 (95% confidence interval: 12 152–15 592), 15 102 (13 366–17 151) and 16 475 (14 581–18 710), assuming no under-reporting/ascertainment, 10 and 20% of under-reporting/ascertainment, respectively. The percentage of undiagnosed cases was higher among HIV people aged below 25 years (25–28%), MSM (16–19%) and people born abroad (16–19%), whereas it was small among injection drug users (3%).

Conclusion:

The estimate of people in Italy with undiagnosed HIV in 2012 was in a plausible range of 12 000–18 000 cases, corresponding to 11–13% of the overall prevalence. The method is straightforward to implement only requiring annual information from the HIV surveillance system about CD4⁺ cell count and clinical stage at HIV diagnosis. Thus, it could be used to monitor if a certain prevention initiative lead to the reduction of the undiagnosed HIV population over time. It can also be easily implemented in other countries collecting the same basic information from the HIV surveillance system.

Towards a scalable HIV cure research agenda: the role of co-infections

The development of a cure is among the foremost contemporary priorities in the field of HIV research. The science that underpins a potential HIV cure should be generalisable to the many millions of persons globally who enter antiretroviral treatment programs with advanced immunosuppression and/or an opportunistic infection. We provide five key suggestions for incorporation into the HIV cure research agenda to maximise the generalisability and applicability of an HIV cure once developed.

Prevalence of Diagnosed and Undiagnosed HIV Infection--United States, 2008-2012

Persons unaware of their human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection contribute nearly one third of ongoing transmission in the United States. Among the estimated 1.2 million persons living with HIV in the United States in 2011, 14% had undiagnosed infections. To accelerate progress toward reducing undiagnosed HIV infection, CDC and its partners have pursued an approach that includes expanding HIV testing in communities with high HIV infection rates. To measure the prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed HIV infection for the 50 states and the District of Columbia (DC), CDC analyzed data from the National HIV Surveillance System. In 42 jurisdictions with numerically stable estimates, HIV prevalence in 2012 ranged from 110 per 100,000 persons (Iowa) to 3,936 per 100,000 (DC). The percentage of persons living with diagnosed HIV ranged from 77% in Louisiana to ≥90% in Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, and New York. In 39 jurisdictions with numerically stable estimates, the percentage of HIV cases with diagnosed infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) ranged from 75% in Louisiana to ≥90% in Hawaii and New York. These data demonstrate the need for interventions and public health strategies to reduce the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection. Because the percentage of persons with undiagnosed HIV varies by geographic area, efforts tailored to each area's unique circumstances might be needed to increase the percentage of persons aware of their infection.