Longitudinal HIV Care Trajectories in North Carolina

Use of machine learning approaches to predict transition of retention in care among people living with HIV in South Carolina: a real-world data study

Maintaining retention in care (RIC) for people living with HIV (PLWH) helps achieve viral suppression and reduce onward transmission. This study aims to identify the best machine learning model that predicts the RIC transition over time. Extracting from the enhanced HIV/AIDS reporting system, this study included 9765 PLWH from 2005 to 2020 in South Carolina. Transition of RIC was defined as the change of RIC status in each two-year time window. We applied seven classifiers, such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Long-short-term memory, for each lagged response to predict the subsequent year's RIC transition. Classification performance was assessed using balanced prediction accuracy, the area under the curve (AUC), recall, precision and F1 scores. The proportion of the four categories of RIC transition was 13.59%, 29.78%, 9.06% and 47.57%, respectively. Support Vector Machine was the best approach for every lag model based on both the F1 score (0.713, 0.717 and 0.719) and AUC (0.920, 0.925 and 0.928). The findings could facilitate the risk augment of PLWH who are prone to follow-up so that clinicians and policymakers could come up with more specific strategies and relocate resources for intervention to keep them sustained in HIV care.

A novel use of HIV surveillance and court data to understand and improve care among a population of people with HIV experiencing criminal charges in North Carolina 2017-2020

Objectives Objectives

To enumerate the population of people with HIV (PWH) with criminal charges and to estimate associations between charges and HIV outcomes.

Methods

We linked statewide North Carolina criminal court records to confidential HIV records (both 2017-2020) to identify a population of defendants with diagnosed HIV. We used generalized estimating equations to examine changes in viral suppression (outcome) pre-post criminal charges (exposure), adjusting for other demographic and legal system factors.

Results

9,534 PWH experienced criminal charges. Compared to others with charges, PWH were more likely to be male and report Black race. The median duration of unresolved charges was longer for PWH. When adjusting for demographic factors, the period following resolution of charges was modestly associated with an increased risk of viral suppression (aRR 1.03 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.04) compared to the pre-charge period.

Conclusions

A significant portion of PWH in NC had criminal charges during a three-year period, and these charges went unresolved for a longer time than those without HIV. These preliminary findings raise questions regarding whether PWH have appropriate access to legal services.

A Latent Class Analysis of Substance Use and Longitudinal HIV RNA Patterns Among PWH in DC Cohort

People with HIV (PWH) with substance use disorders (SUD) have worse health outcomes than PWH without SUD. Our objective was to characterize substance use patterns and their impact on longitudinal HIV RNA trajectories among those enrolled in an observational study of PWH in care in Washington, DC. Substance use by type (alcohol, cannabis, opioid, stimulant, hallucinogen, inhalant, sedative) was used to identify shared patterns of substance use using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). A multinomial logistic regression model evaluated the association between the resulting substance use classes and the membership probability in longitudinal HIV RNA trajectory groups. There were 30.1% of participants with at least one substance reported. LCA resulted in a three-class model: (1) Low-Level Substance Use, (2) Opioid Use, and (3) Polysubstance. The Opioid and Polysubstance Use classes were more likely to have a mental health diagnosis (45.4% and 53.5%; p < 0.0001). Members in the Opioid Use class were older (median age of 54.9 years (IQR 50.3-59.2) than both the Polysubstance and Low-Level Substance Use Classes (p < 0.0001). There were 3 HIV RNA trajectory groups: (1) Undetectable, (2) Suppressed, and (3) Unsuppressed HIV RNA over 18 months of follow-up. The probability of being in the unsuppressed HIV RNA group trajectory when a member of the Opioid Use or Polysubstance Use classes was 2.5 times and 1.5 times greater than the Low-Level Substance Use class, respectively. The Opioid Use and Polysubstance Use classes, with higher-risk drug use, should be approached with more targeted HIV-related care to improve outcomes.

Brief Report: Social Factors Associated With Trajectories of HIV-Related Stigma and Everyday Discrimination Among Women Living With HIV in Vancouver, Canada: Longitudinal Cohort Findings

INTRODUCTION

Women living with HIV (WLHIV) experience stigma rooted in social inequities. We examined associations between social factors (food insecurity, housing insecurity, violence, sexual minority identity, and substance use) and HIV-related stigma and Everyday Discrimination trajectories among WLHIV.

METHODS

This community-based open longitudinal cohort study with WLHIV living in and/or accessing HIV care in Metro Vancouver, Canada, plotted semiannual averages (2015-2019) of recent (past 6-month) HIV-related stigma and Everyday Discrimination. We examined distinct trajectories of HIV-related stigma and Everyday Discrimination using latent class growth analysis (LCGA) and baseline correlates of each trajectory using multinomial logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Among participants (HIV-related stigma sample: n = 197 participants with n = 985 observations; Everyday Discrimination sample: n = 203 participants with n = 1096 observations), LCGA identified 2 distinct HIV-related stigma and Everyday Discrimination trajectories: sustained low and consistently high. In multivariable analysis, concurrent food and housing insecurity (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-4.12) and physical/sexual violence (AOR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.22-5.42) were associated with higher odds of the consistently high (vs. sustained low) HIV-related stigma trajectory. Sexual minority identity (AOR: 2.84, 95% CI: 1.49-5.45), concurrent food and housing insecurity (AOR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.38-5.08), and noninjection substance use (less than daily vs. none) (AOR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.03-4.07) were associated with higher odds of the consistently high (vs. sustained low) Everyday Discrimination trajectory.

CONCLUSIONS

Social inequities were associated with consistently high HIV-related stigma and Everyday Discrimination among WLHIV. Multilevel strategies can address violence, economic insecurity, intersecting stigma, and discrimination to optimize health and rights among WLHIV.

Alcohol use and the longitudinal HIV care continuum for people with HIV who enrolled in care between 2011 and 2019

PURPOSE

We described the impact of alcohol use on longitudinal engagement in HIV care including loss to follow-up, durability of viral suppression, and death.

METHODS

We followed a cohort of 1781 people with HIV from enrolled in care at one of seven US clinics, 2011-2019 through 102 months. We used a multistate, time-varying Markov process and restricted mean time to summarize engagement in HIV care over follow-up according to baseline self-reported alcohol use (none, moderate, or unhealthy).

RESULTS

Our sample (86% male, 54% White) had median age of 35 years. Over 102 months, people with no, moderate, and unhealthy alcohol use averaged 62.3, 61.1, and 59.5 months virally suppressed, respectively. People who reported unhealthy or moderate alcohol use spent 5.1 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.8, 9.3) and 7.6 (95%CI: 3.1, 11.7) more months lost to care than nondrinkers. Compared to no use, unhealthy alcohol use was associated with 3.4 (95%CI: -5.6, -1.6) fewer months in care, not virally suppressed. There were no statistically significant differences after adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate or unhealthy drinking at enrollment in HIV care was associated with poor retention in care. Alcohol use was not associated with time spent virally suppressed.

Intersectionality-informed analysis of durable viral suppression disparities in people with HIV

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine drivers of durable viral suppression (DVS) disparities among people with HIV (PWH) using quantitative intersectional approaches.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort analysis from electronic health records informed by intersectionality to better capture the concept of interlocking and interacting systems of oppression.

METHODS

We analyzed data of PWH seen at a LGBTQ federally qualified health center in Chicago (2012-2019) with at least three viral loads. We identified PWH who achieved DVS using latent trajectory analysis and examined disparities using three intersectional approaches: Adding interactions, latent class analysis (LCA), and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). Findings were compared with main effects only regression.

RESULTS

Among 5967 PWH, 90% showed viral trajectories consistent with DVS. Main effects regression showed that substance use [odds ratio (OR) 0.56, 0.46-0.68] and socioeconomic status like being unhoused (OR: 0.39, 0.29-0.53), but not sexual orientation or gender identity (SOGI) were associated with DVS. Adding interactions, we found that race and ethnicity modified the association between insurance and DVS ( P for interaction <0.05). With LCA, we uncovered four social position categories influenced by SOGI with varying rates of DVS. For example, the transgender women-majority class had worse DVS rates versus the class of mostly nonpoor white cisgender gay men (82 vs. 95%). QCA showed that combinations, rather than single factors alone, were important for achieving DVS. Combinations vary with marginalized populations (e.g. black gay/lesbian transgender women) having distinct sufficient combinations compared with historically privileged groups (e.g. white cisgender gay men).

CONCLUSION

Social factors likely interact to produce DVS disparities. Intersectionality-informed analysis uncover nuance that can inform solutions.

Identifying the best measures of alcohol consumption to predict future HIV viral suppression trajectories

Alcohol use is associated with poor outcomes among people living with HIV (PLWH), but it remains unclear which alcohol use measures best predict future HIV viral non-suppression over time. This study aimed to compare the ability of five alcohol use measures to predict risk of suboptimal HIV viral load trajectories over 36 months. We analyzed data from a cohort of PLWH in Florida including survey data linked to the state HIV surveillance system on prospective HIV viral loads over 36 months (n = 783; 66% male; 55% Black; Mage=46, SD = 11). Four trajectory patterns for HIV viral load were identified: consistently low (65.1%), decreasing (15.9%), increasing (10.6%), and consistently high (8.4%). Past year alcohol use frequency (OR = 2.1, CI:1.0-4.4), drinks consumed on a typical drinking day (OR = 2.2, CI:1.2-4.1), frequency of binge drinking (OR = 2.6, CI:1.3-5.2), and alcohol-related problems score (OR = 1.7, CI:1.1-2.7) were the measures predictive of the risk of future viral non-suppression above specific thresholds.

Longitudinal trajectories of HIV care engagement since diagnosis among persons with HIV in the Florida Ryan White program

HIV care engagement is a dynamic process. We employed group-based trajectory modeling to examine longitudinal patterns in care engagement among people who were newly diagnosed with HIV and enrolled in the Ryan White program in Florida (n = 9,755) between 2010 and 2015. Five trajectories were identified (47.9% "in care" with 1-2 care visit(s) per 6 months, 18.0% "frequent care" with 3 or more care visits per 6 months, 11.0% "re-engage", 11.0% "gradual drop out", 12.6% "early dropout") based on the number of care attendances (including outpatient/case management visits, viral load or CD4 test) for each six-month during the first five years since diagnosis. Relative to "in care", people in the "frequent care" trajectory were more likely to be Hispanic/Latino and older at HIV diagnosis, whereas people in the three suboptimal care retention trajectories were more likely to be younger. Area deprivation index, rurality, and county health rankings were also strongly associated with care trajectories. Individual- and community-level factors associated to the three suboptimal care retention trajectories, if confirmed to be causative and actionable, could be prioritized to improve HIV care engagement.

Indirect comparison of 48-week efficacy and safety of long-acting cabotegravir and rilpivirine maintenance every 8 weeks with daily oral standard of care antiretroviral therapy in participants with virologically suppressed HIV-1-infection

Background

Efficacy and safety of long-acting cabotegravir (CAB) + rilpivirine (RPV) every 8 weeks (Q8W) versus daily oral standard of care (SoC) maintenance in treatment-experienced individuals with virologically suppressed human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) has not been directly compared in randomized clinical trials. This analysis aimed to indirectly compare these regimens.

Methods

An adjusted indirect treatment comparison of CAB + RPV Q8W with daily oral SoC was performed, using Phase 3 data from studies of CAB + RPV every 4 weeks (Q4W) vs SoC (ATLAS/FLAIR, n = 591 per group) and a Phase 3b trial of CAB + RPV Q8W vs Q4W (ATLAS-2M [excluding participants with prior CAB + RPV exposure]; n = 327 per group). Eligible participants were virologically suppressed (viral load < 50 HIV-1 ribonucleic acid (RNA) copies/mL), treatment-experienced individuals with HIV-1-infection. Treatment efficacy and safety assessments at Week 48 included virologic suppression and lack of virologic suppression (proportion of participants with plasma HIV-1 RNA < 50 copies/mL or ≥ 50 copies/mL, respectively; both as per FDA snapshot algorithm), CD4-cell count change from baseline, no virologic data, discontinuations due to adverse events (AEs), and overall AEs, serious AEs and Grade 3–5 AEs excluding injection-site reactions. A subgroup analysis stratified by baseline third active drug class was performed.

Results

Baseline characteristics between the Q4W arms of ATLAS/FLAIR and ATLAS-2M showed no significant differences or differences were not judged to be clinically relevant, apart from participants switching from a baseline third active drug class; more participants switched from integrase strand inhibitors in ATLAS/FLAIR, and from non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors in ATLAS-2M. Injections of CAB + RPV Q8W showed no significant differences across efficacy and safety outcomes versus daily oral SoC. Univariate subgroup analysis found there were no significant differences on virologic suppression or lack of virologic suppression for any baseline third active drug class subgroup. These results suggest that CAB + RPV Q8W is non-inferior to daily oral SoC.

Conclusions

This analysis supports the therapeutic potential of CAB + RPV Q8W for virologically suppressed people living with HIV-1 infection seeking an alternative maintenance treatment option to daily oral SoC.

Trial registration: NCT02938520, NCT02951052, NCT03299049.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07243-3.

Novel Longitudinal Methods for Assessing Retention in Care: a Synthetic Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Retention in care is both dynamic and longitudinal in nature, but current approaches to retention often reduce these complex histories into cross-sectional metrics that obscure the nuanced experiences of patients receiving HIV care. In this review, we discuss contemporary approaches to assessing retention in care that captures its dynamic nature and the methodological and data considerations to do so.

RECENT FINDINGS

Enhancing retention measurements either through patient tracing or "big data" approaches (including probabilistic matching) to link databases from different sources can be used to assess longitudinal retention from the perspective of the patient when they transition in and out of care and access care at different facilities. Novel longitudinal analytic approaches such as multi-state and group-based trajectory analyses are designed specifically for assessing metrics that can change over time such as retention in care. Multi-state analyses capture the transitions individuals make in between different retention states over time and provide a comprehensive depiction of longitudinal population-level outcomes. Group-based trajectory analyses can identify patient subgroups that follow distinctive retention trajectories over time and highlight the heterogeneity of retention patterns across the population. Emerging approaches to longitudinally measure retention in care provide nuanced assessments that reveal unique insights into different care gaps at different time points over an individuals' treatment. These methods help meet the needs of the current scientific agenda for retention and reveal important opportunities for developing more tailored interventions that target the varied care challenges patients may face over the course of lifelong treatment.

HIV in pregnancy: Mother-to-child transmission, pharmacotherapy, and toxicity

An estimated 1.3 million pregnant women were living with HIV in 2018. HIV infection is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and all HIV-positive pregnant women, regardless of their clinical stage, should receive a combination of antiretroviral drugs to suppress maternal viral load and prevent vertical fetal infection. Although antiretroviral treatment in pregnant women has undoubtedly minimized mother-to-child transmission of HIV, several uncertainties remain. For example, while pregnancy is accompanied by changes in pharmacokinetic parameters, relevant data from clinical studies are lacking. Similarly, long-term adverse effects of exposure to antiretrovirals on fetuses have not been studied in detail. Here, we review current knowledge on HIV effects on the placenta and developing fetus, recommended antiretroviral regimens, and pharmacokinetic considerations with particular focus on placental transport. We also discuss recent advances in antiretroviral research and potential effects of antiretroviral treatment on placental/fetal development and programming.

Profiles of HIV Care Disruptions Among Adult Patients Lost to Follow-up in Zambia: A Latent Class Analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients report varied barriers to HIV care across multiple domains, but specific barrier patterns may be driven by underlying, but unobserved, behavioral profiles.

METHODS

We traced a probability sample of patients lost to follow-up (>90 days late) as of July 31, 2015 from 64 clinics in Zambia. Among those found alive, we ascertained patient-reported reasons for care disruptions. We performed latent class analysis to identify patient subgroups with similar patterns of reasons reported and assessed the association between class membership and care status (ie, disengaged versus silently transferred to a new site).

RESULTS

Among 547 patients, we identified 5 profiles of care disruptions: (1) "Livelihood and Mobility" (30.6% of the population) reported work/school obligations and mobility/travel as reasons for care disruptions; (2) "Clinic Accessibility" (28.9%) reported challenges with attending clinic; (3) "Mobility and Family" (21.9%) reported family obligations, mobility/travel, and transport-related reasons; (4) "Doubting Need for HIV care" (10.2%) reported uncertainty around HIV status or need for clinical care, and (5) "Multidimensional Barriers to Care" (8.3%) reported numerous (mean 5.6) reasons across multiple domains. Patient profiles were significantly associated with care status. The "Doubting Need for HIV Care" class were mostly disengaged (97.9%), followed by the "Multidimensional Barriers to Care" (62.8%), "Clinic Accessibility" (62.4%), "Livelihood and Mobility" (43.6%), and "Mobility and Family" (23.5%) classes.

CONCLUSION

There are distinct HIV care disruption profiles that are strongly associated with patients' current engagement status. Interventions targeting these unique profiles may enable more effective and tailored strategies for improving HIV treatment outcomes.

Annual and durable HIV retention in care and viral suppression among patients of Peter Ho Clinic, 2013-2017

Objectives

To determine rates of annual and durable retention in medical care and viral suppression among patients enrolled in the Peter Ho Clinic, from 2013–2017.

Methods

This is a retrospective review of medical record data in an urban clinic, located in Newark, New Jersey, a high prevalence area of persons living with HIV. Viral load data were electronically downloaded, in rolling 1-year intervals, in two-month increments, from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019. Three teams were established, and every two months, they were provided with an updated list of patients with virologic failure. Retention and viral suppression rates were first calculated for each calendar-year. After patients were determined to be retained/suppressed annually, the proportion of patients with durable retention and viral suppression were calculated in two, three, four, five and six-year periods. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize sample characteristics by retention in care, virologic failure and viral suppression with Pearson Chi-square; p-value <0.05 was statistically significant. Multiple logistic regression models identified patient characteristics associated with retention in medical care, virologic failure and suppression.

Results

As of December 31, 2017, 1000 (57%) patients were retained in medical care of whom 870 (87%) were suppressed. Between 2013 and 2016, decreases in annual (85% to 77%) and durable retention in care were noted: two-year (72% to 70%) and three-year (63% to 59%) periods. However, increases were noted for 2017, in annual (89%) and durable retention in the two-year period (79%). In the adjusted model, when compared to current patients, retention in care was less likely among patients reengaging in medical care (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61–0.98) but more likely among those newly diagnosed from 2014–2017 (aOR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.08–2.29), compared to those in care since 2013. A higher proportion of patients re-engaging in medical care had virologic failure than current patients (56% vs. 47%, p < 0.0001). As age decreased, virologic failure was more likely (p<0.0001). Between 2013 and 2017, increases in annual (74% to 87%) and durable viral suppression were noted: two-year (59% to 73%) and three-year (49% to 58%) periods. Viral suppression was more likely among patients retained in medical care up to 2017 versus those who were not (aOR: 5.52, 95% CI: 4.08–7.46). Those less likely to be suppressed were 20–29 vs. 60 years or older (aOR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28–0.97), had public vs. private insurance (aOR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.15–0.55) and public vs. private housing (aOR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.40–0.87).

Conclusions

Restructuring clinical services at this urban clinic was associated with improved viral suppression. However, concurrent interventions to ensure retention in medical care were not implemented. Both retention in care and viral suppression interventions should be implemented in tandem to achieve an end to the epidemic. Retention in care and viral suppression should be measured longitudinally, instead of cross-sectional yearly evaluations, to capture dynamic changes in these indicators.

HIV viral load trajectories of women living with HIV in Metro Vancouver, Canada

This study describes long-term viral load (VL) trajectories and their predictors among women living with HIV (WLWH), using data from Sexual Health and HIV/AIDS: Women's Longitudinal Needs Assessment (SHAWNA), an open prospective cohort study with linkages to the HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Program. Using Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) on a sample of 153 WLWH (1088 observations), three distinct trajectories of detectable VL (≥50 copies/ml) were identified: 'sustained low probability of detectable VL', characterized by high probability of long-term VL undetectability (51% of participants); 'high probability of delayed viral undetectability', characterized by a high probability VL detectability at baseline that decreases over time (43% of participants); and 'high probability of detectable VL', characterized by a high probability of long-term VL detectability (7% of participants). In multivariable analysis, incarceration (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.24; 95%CI:1.34-7.82), younger age (AOR = 0.96; 95%CI:0.92-1.00), and lower CD4 count (AOR = 0.82; 95%CI:0.72-0.93) were associated with 'high probability of delayed viral undetectability' compared to 'sustained low probability of detectable VL.' This study reveals the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of WLWH's long-term VL patterns, and highlights the need for early engagement in HIV care among young WLWH and programs to mitigate the destabilizing impact of incarceration on WLWH's HIV treatment outcomes.

Identifying and predicting longitudinal trajectories of care for people newly diagnosed with HIV in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Predicting long-term care trajectories at the time of HIV diagnosis may allow targeted interventions. Our objective was to uncover distinct CD4-based trajectories and determine baseline demographic, clinical, and contextual factors associated with trajectory membership.

METHODS

We used data from the Sizanani trial (NCT01188941), in which adults were enrolled prior to HIV testing in Durban, South Africa from August 2010-January 2013. We ascertained CD4 counts from the National Health Laboratory Service over 5y follow-up. We used group-based statistical modeling to identify groups with similar CD4 count trajectories and Bayesian information criteria to determine distinct CD4 trajectories. We evaluated baseline factors that predict membership in specific trajectories using multinomial logistic regression. We examined calendar year of participant enrollment, age, gender, cohabitation, TB positivity, self-identified barriers to care, and ART initiation within 3 months of diagnosis.

RESULTS

688 participants had longitudinal data available. Group-based trajectory modeling identified four distinct trajectories: one with consistently low CD4 counts (21%), one with low CD4 counts that increased over time (22%), one with moderate CD4 counts that remained stable (41%), and one with high CD4 counts that increased over time (16%). Those with higher CD4 counts at diagnosis were younger, less likely to have TB, and less likely to identify barriers to care. Those in the least favorable trajectory (consistently low CD4 count) were least likely to start ART within 3 months.

CONCLUSIONS

One-fifth of people newly-diagnosed with HIV presented with low CD4 counts that failed to rise over time. Less than 40% were in a trajectory characterized by increasing CD4 counts. Patients in more favorable trajectories were younger, less likely to have TB, and less likely to report barriers to healthcare. Better understanding barriers to early care engagement and ART initiation will be necessary to improve long-term clinical outcomes.

Advances in Long-Acting Agents for the Treatment of HIV Infection

Long-acting antiretroviral therapy holds the promise of new options for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment beyond the current paradigm of daily oral pills. Of particular interest is their potential role in addressing challenges with adherence to oral therapy and treatment fatigue. Similar to other conditions where long-acting formulations have proven effective such as contraception and mental health, long-acting antiretroviral therapy could provide additional treatment choices to people with HIV. This review provides an outline of the current landscape of long-acting antiretroviral therapy for HIV treatment, both approved and under development, including cabotegravir, rilpivirine, leronlimab, islatravir, albuvirtide, GS-6207, and broadly neutralizaing antibodies. However, there are a number of research gaps for long-acting antiretroviral therapy including issues regarding resistance and understudied populations, and this review highlights some of the challenges that will need to be addressed for clinical implementation of these novel treatment modalities.

Longitudinal engagement trajectories and risk of death among new ART starters in Zambia: A group-based multi-trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Retention in HIV treatment must be improved to advance the HIV response, but research to characterize gaps in retention has focused on estimates from single time points and population-level averages. These approaches do not assess the engagement patterns of individual patients over time and fail to account for both their dynamic nature and the heterogeneity between patients. We apply group-based trajectory analysis-a special application of latent class analysis to longitudinal data-among new antiretroviral therapy (ART) starters in Zambia to identify groups defined by engagement patterns over time and to assess their association with mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We analyzed a cohort of HIV-infected adults who newly started ART between August 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, across 64 clinics in Zambia. We performed group-based multi-trajectory analysis to identify subgroups with distinct trajectories in medication possession ratio (MPR, a validated adherence metric based on pharmacy refill data) over the past 3 months and loss to follow-up (LTFU, >90 days late for last visit) among patients with at least 180 days of observation time. We used multinomial logistic regression to identify baseline factors associated with belonging to particular trajectory groups. We obtained Kaplan-Meier estimates with bootstrapped confidence intervals of the cumulative incidence of mortality stratified by trajectory group and performed adjusted Poisson regression to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for mortality by trajectory group. Inverse probability weights were applied to all analyses to account for updated outcomes ascertained from tracing a random subset of patients lost to follow-up as of July 31, 2015. Overall, 38,879 patients (63.3% female, median age 35 years [IQR 29-41], median enrollment CD4 count 280 cells/μl [IQR 146-431]) were included in our cohort. Analyses revealed 6 trajectory groups among the new ART starters: (1) 28.5% of patients demonstrated consistently high adherence and retention; (2) 22.2% showed early nonadherence but consistent retention; (3) 21.6% showed gradually decreasing adherence and retention; (4) 8.6% showed early LTFU with later reengagement; (5) 8.7% had early LTFU without reengagement; and (6) 10.4% had late LTFU without reengagement. Identified groups exhibited large differences in survival: after adjustment, the "early LTFU with reengagement" group (aIRR 3.4 [95% CI 1.2-9.7], p = 0.019), the "early LTFU" group (aIRR 6.4 [95% CI 2.5-16.3], p < 0.001), and the "late LTFU" group (aIRR 4.7 [95% CI 2.0-11.3], p = 0.001) had higher rates of mortality as compared to the group with consistently high adherence/retention. Limitations of this study include using data observed after baseline to identify trajectory groups and to classify patients into these groups, excluding patients who died or transferred within the first 180 days, and the uncertain generalizability of the data to current care standards.

CONCLUSIONS

Among new ART starters in Zambia, we observed 6 patient subgroups that demonstrated distinctive engagement trajectories over time and that were associated with marked differences in the subsequent risk of mortality. Further efforts to develop tailored intervention strategies for different types of engagement behaviors, monitor early engagement to identify higher-risk patients, and better understand the determinants of these heterogeneous behaviors can help improve care delivery and survival in this population.

Improving HIV Care Engagement in the South from the Patient and Provider Perspective: The Role of Stigma, Social Support, and Shared Decision-Making

Initial linkage to medical care is a critical step in the HIV care continuum leading to improved health outcomes, reduced morbidity and mortality, and decreased HIV transmission risk. We explored differences in perspectives on engagement in HIV care between people living with HIV who attended (Arrived) their initial medical provider visit (IMV) and those who did not (Missed), and between patients and providers. The study was conducted in two large majority/minority HIV treatment centers in the United States (US) south, a geographical region disproportionately impacted by HIV. The Theory of Planned Behavior informed semistructured interviews eliciting facilitators and barriers to engagement in care from 53 participants: 40 patients in a structured sample of 20 Missed and 20 Arrived, and 13 care providers. Using Grounded Theory to frame analysis, we found similar perspectives for all groups, including beliefs in the following: patients' control over care engagement, a lack of knowledge regarding HIV within the community, and the impact of structural barriers to HIV care such as paperwork, transportation, housing, and substance use treatment. Differences were noted by care engagement status. Missed described HIV-related discrimination, depression, and lack of social support. Arrived worried what others think about their HIV status. Providers focused on structural barriers and process, while patients focused on relational aspects of HIV care and personal connection with clinics. Participants proposed peer navigation and increased contact from clinics as interventions to reduce missed IMV. Context-appropriate interventions informed by these perspectives are needed to address the expanding southern HIV epidemic.

CROI 2018: Advances in Antiretroviral Therapy

The 2018 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) showcased exciting data on new investigational agents including MK-8591 and tri-specific antibody targeting 3 highly conserved epitopes on HIV-1 in a single antibody. Clinical trials of initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) and switch studies involving bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide were presented. Intensification of initial ART with integrase strand transfer inhibitors did not increase the risk of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome. Pharmacokinetic issues were discussed, including the substantial drug-drug interactions between efavirenz-based ART and hormonal contraception delivered via a vaginal ring. Studies on pre-ART drug resistance and emergence of drug resistance after initial and second-line ART in different settings and populations were highlighted. Novel technologies to identify drug resistance included a free, cloud-based web service for HIV genotyping analysis and a promising technology for point-of-care drug resistance mutations testing. New strategies to improve the HIV care continuum included home-based testing with initiation of same-day ART and stratified care with specialized clinics to serve those disengaged in care, but the data on financial incentives were not encouraging. Several studies provided insights into the impact of early ART on decreasing the size of the HIV reservoir in HIV-infected infants. Pertinent conference findings relating to women's health issues included similar clinical outcomes between breastfeeding and formula feeding HIV-infected women, the problem of viral rebound and ART nonadherence in pregnancy and postpartum.