1
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Owens K, Esmaeili S, Schiffer JT. Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses. JCI Insight 2024; 9:e176286. [PMID: 38573774 PMCID: PMC11141931 DOI: 10.1172/jci.insight.176286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024] Open
Abstract
The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of interindividual variability. We identified 6 distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate, and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1,510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection as well as by an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during Omicron infection, following vaccination, and following reinfection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Owens
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Shadisadat Esmaeili
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Joshua T. Schiffer
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Seattle, Washington, USA
- University of Washington, Department of Medicine, Seattle, Washington, USA
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2
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Yu Q, Ascensao JA, Okada T, Boyd O, Volz E, Hallatschek O. Lineage frequency time series reveal elevated levels of genetic drift in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England. PLoS Pathog 2024; 20:e1012090. [PMID: 38620033 PMCID: PMC11045146 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1012090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 03/03/2024] [Indexed: 04/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.
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Affiliation(s)
- QinQin Yu
- Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Joao A. Ascensao
- Department of Bioengineering, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Takashi Okada
- Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Institute for Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
- RIKEN iTHEMS, Wako, Saitama, Japan
| | | | - Olivia Boyd
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Erik Volz
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Oskar Hallatschek
- Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Peter Debye Institute for Soft Matter Physics, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
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3
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Owens K, Esmaeili-Wellman S, Schiffer JT. Heterogeneous SARS-CoV-2 kinetics due to variable timing and intensity of immune responses. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2023.08.20.23294350. [PMID: 37662228 PMCID: PMC10473815 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.20.23294350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/05/2023]
Abstract
The viral kinetics of documented SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit a high degree of inter-individual variability. We identified six distinct viral shedding patterns, which differed according to peak viral load, duration, expansion rate and clearance rate, by clustering data from 768 infections in the National Basketball Association cohort. Omicron variant infections in previously vaccinated individuals generally led to lower cumulative shedding levels of SARS-CoV-2 than other scenarios. We then developed a mechanistic mathematical model that recapitulated 1510 observed viral trajectories, including viral rebound and cases of reinfection. Lower peak viral loads were explained by a more rapid and sustained transition of susceptible cells to a refractory state during infection, as well as an earlier and more potent late, cytolytic immune response. Our results suggest that viral elimination occurs more rapidly during omicron infection, following vaccination, and following re-infection due to enhanced innate and acquired immune responses. Because viral load has been linked with COVID-19 severity and transmission risk, our model provides a framework for understanding the wide range of observed SARS-CoV-2 infection outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katherine Owens
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division
| | | | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Division
- University of Washington, Department of Medicine
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4
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Murray JM, Murray DD, Schvoerer E, Akand EH. SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron community transmission networks as added value to contact tracing. J Infect 2024; 88:173-179. [PMID: 38242366 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2024.01.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2024] [Indexed: 01/21/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Calculations of SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks at a population level have been limited. Networks that estimate infections between individuals and whether this results in a mutation, can be a way to evaluate fitness of a mutational clone by how much it expands in number as well as determining the likelihood a transmission results in a new variant. METHODS Australian Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 sequences were downloaded from GISAID. Transmission networks of infection between individuals were estimated using a novel mathematical method. RESULTS Many of the sequences were identical, with clone sizes following power law distributions driven by negative binomial probability distributions for both the number of infections per individual and the number of mutations per transmission (median 0.74 nucleotide changes for Delta and 0.71 for Omicron). Using these distributions, an agent-based model was able to replicate the observed clonal network structure, providing a basis for more detailed COVID-19 modelling. Possible recombination events, tracked by insertion/deletion (indel) patterns, were identified for each variant in these outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS This modelling approach reveals key transmission characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 and may complement traditional contact tracing. This methodology can also be applied to other diseases as genetic sequencing of viruses becomes more commonplace.
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Affiliation(s)
- John M Murray
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
| | - Daniel D Murray
- Centre of Excellence for Health, Immunity and Infections (CHIP), Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Evelyne Schvoerer
- Laboratory of Virology, University Hospital of Nancy Brabois, F-54500 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy, France; Lorraine University, Laboratory of Physical Chemistry and Microbiology for Materials and the Environment, LCPME UMR 7564, CNRS, 405 Rue de Vandoeuvre, F-54600 Villers-lès-Nancy, France
| | - Elma H Akand
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
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5
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Reeves DB, Mayer BT, deCamp AC, Huang Y, Zhang B, Carpp LN, Magaret CA, Juraska M, Gilbert PB, Montefiori DC, Bar KJ, Cardozo-Ojeda EF, Schiffer JT, Rossenkhan R, Edlefsen P, Morris L, Mkhize NN, Williamson C, Mullins JI, Seaton KE, Tomaras GD, Andrew P, Mgodi N, Ledgerwood JE, Cohen MS, Corey L, Naidoo L, Orrell C, Goepfert PA, Casapia M, Sobieszczyk ME, Karuna ST, Edupuganti S. High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8299. [PMID: 38097552 PMCID: PMC10721814 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43384-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B Reeves
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Bryan T Mayer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Allan C deCamp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Yunda Huang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bo Zhang
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lindsay N Carpp
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Craig A Magaret
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Michal Juraska
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Peter B Gilbert
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Katharine J Bar
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - E Fabian Cardozo-Ojeda
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Joshua T Schiffer
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Raabya Rossenkhan
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Paul Edlefsen
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lynn Morris
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Nonhlanhla N Mkhize
- National Institute for Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
- Antibody Immunity Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Carolyn Williamson
- Division of Medical Virology, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Service, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - James I Mullins
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Microbiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kelly E Seaton
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Georgia D Tomaras
- Center for Human Systems Immunology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
- Departments of Surgery, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics and Microbiology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | | | - Nyaradzo Mgodi
- Clinical Trials Research Centre, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Julie E Ledgerwood
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Myron S Cohen
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Lawrence Corey
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Catherine Orrell
- Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine and Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Paul A Goepfert
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Martin Casapia
- Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peru, Iquitos, Peru
| | - Magdalena E Sobieszczyk
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA
| | - Shelly T Karuna
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA
- GreenLight Biosciences, Medford, MA, USA
| | - Srilatha Edupuganti
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA
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6
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Geenen C, Thibaut J, Laenen L, Raymenants J, Cuypers L, Maes P, Dellicour S, André E. Unravelling the effect of New Year's Eve celebrations on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Sci Rep 2023; 13:22195. [PMID: 38097713 PMCID: PMC10721646 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-49678-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Public holidays have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 incidence surges, although a firm link remains to be established. This association is sometimes attributed to events where transmissions occur at a disproportionately high rate, known as superspreading events. Here, we describe a sudden surge in new cases with the Omicron BA.1 strain amongst higher education students in Belgium. Contact tracers classed most of these cases as likely or possibly infected on New Year's Eve, indicating a direct trigger by New Year celebrations. Using a combination of contact tracing and phylogenetic data, we show the limited role of superspreading events in this surge. Finally, the numerous simultaneous transmissions allowed a unique opportunity to determine the distribution of incubation periods of the Omicron strain. Overall, our results indicate that, even under social restrictions, a surge in transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 can occur when holiday celebrations result in small social gatherings attended simultaneously and communitywide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caspar Geenen
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium.
| | - Jonathan Thibaut
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Lies Laenen
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, National Reference Centre for Respiratory Pathogens, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Joren Raymenants
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Lize Cuypers
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, National Reference Centre for Respiratory Pathogens, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Piet Maes
- Rega Institute, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Simon Dellicour
- Rega Institute, Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Emmanuel André
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, KU Leuven, Herestraat 49, 3000, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, National Reference Centre for Respiratory Pathogens, University Hospitals Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
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7
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Hart WS, Park H, Jeong YD, Kim KS, Yoshimura R, Thompson RN, Iwami S. Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2305451120. [PMID: 37788317 PMCID: PMC10576149 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2305451120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/05/2023] Open
Abstract
In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multiscale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multiscale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- William S. Hart
- Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, OxfordOX2 6GG, United Kingdom
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
| | - Hyeongki Park
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
| | - Yong Dam Jeong
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
- Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University, Busan46241, South Korea
| | - Kwang Su Kim
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
- Department of Scientific Computing, Pukyong National University, Busan48513, South Korea
| | - Raiki Yoshimura
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
| | - Robin N. Thompson
- Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, OxfordOX2 6GG, United Kingdom
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, CoventryCV4 7AL, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, CoventryCV4 7AL, United Kingdom
| | - Shingo Iwami
- lnterdisciplinary Biology Laboratory, Division of Natural Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University, Nagoya464-8602, Japan
- Institute of Mathematics for Industry, Kyushu University, Fukuoka819-0395, Japan
- Institute for the Advanced Study of Human Biology, Kyoto University, Kyoto606-8501, Japan
- Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program, RIKEN, Saitama351-0198, Japan
- NEXT-Ganken Program, Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research, Tokyo135-8550, Japan
- Science Groove Inc., Fukuoka810-0041, Japan
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8
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McCormack CP, Yan AWC, Brown JC, Sukhova K, Peacock TP, Barclay WS, Dorigatti I. Modelling the viral dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants in different cell types. J R Soc Interface 2023; 20:20230187. [PMID: 37553993 PMCID: PMC10410224 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2023] Open
Abstract
We use viral kinetic models fitted to viral load data from in vitro studies to explain why the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant replicates faster than the Delta variant in nasal cells, but slower than Delta in lung cells, which could explain Omicron's higher transmission potential and lower severity. We find that in both nasal and lung cells, viral infectivity is higher for Omicron but the virus production rate is higher for Delta, with an estimated approximately 200-fold increase in infectivity and 100-fold decrease in virus production when comparing Omicron with Delta in nasal cells. However, the differences are unequal between cell types, and ultimately lead to the basic reproduction number and growth rate being higher for Omicron in nasal cells, and higher for Delta in lung cells. In nasal cells, Omicron alone can enter via a TMPRSS2-independent pathway, but it is primarily increased efficiency of TMPRSS2-dependent entry which accounts for Omicron's increased activity. This work paves the way for using within-host mathematical models to understand the transmission potential and severity of future variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare P. McCormack
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ada W. C. Yan
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan C. Brown
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ksenia Sukhova
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Thomas P. Peacock
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Wendy S. Barclay
- Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ilaria Dorigatti
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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9
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Orf GS, Pérez LJ, Ciuoderis K, Cardona A, Villegas S, Hernández-Ortiz JP, Baele G, Mohaimani A, Osorio JE, Berg MG, Cloherty GA. The Principles of SARS-CoV-2 Intervariant Competition Are Exemplified in the Pre-Omicron Era of the Colombian Epidemic. Microbiol Spectr 2023; 11:e0534622. [PMID: 37191534 PMCID: PMC10269686 DOI: 10.1128/spectrum.05346-22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The first 18 months of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Colombia were characterized by three epidemic waves. During the third wave, from March through August 2021, intervariant competition resulted in Mu replacing Alpha and Gamma. We employed Bayesian phylodynamic inference and epidemiological modeling to characterize the variants in the country during this period of competition. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that Mu did not emerge in Colombia but acquired increased fitness there through local transmission and diversification, contributing to its export to North America and Europe. Despite not having the highest transmissibility, Mu's genetic composition and ability to evade preexisting immunity facilitated its domination of the Colombian epidemic landscape. Our results support previous modeling studies demonstrating that both intrinsic factors (transmissibility and genetic diversity) and extrinsic factors (time of introduction and acquired immunity) influence the outcome of intervariant competition. This analysis will help set practical expectations about the inevitable emergences of new variants and their trajectories. IMPORTANCE Before the appearance of the Omicron variant in late 2021, numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged, were established, and declined, often with different outcomes in different geographic areas. In this study, we considered the trajectory of the Mu variant, which only successfully dominated the epidemic landscape of a single country: Colombia. We demonstrate that Mu competed successfully there due to its early and opportune introduction time in late 2020, combined with its ability to evade immunity granted by prior infection or the first generation of vaccines. Mu likely did not effectively spread outside of Colombia because other immune-evading variants, such as Delta, had arrived in those locales and established themselves first. On the other hand, Mu's early spread within Colombia may have prevented the successful establishment of Delta there. Our analysis highlights the geographic heterogeneity of early SARS-CoV-2 variant spread and helps to reframe the expectations for the competition behaviors of future variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory S. Orf
- Infectious Disease Research, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
| | - Lester J. Pérez
- Infectious Disease Research, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
| | - Karl Ciuoderis
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede en Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Andrés Cardona
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede en Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Simón Villegas
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede en Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Juan P. Hernández-Ortiz
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede en Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Guy Baele
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Laboratory of Clinical and Evolutionary Virology, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Aurash Mohaimani
- Infectious Disease Research, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
| | - Jorge E. Osorio
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede en Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
- UW-GHI One Health Colombia, University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Michael G. Berg
- Infectious Disease Research, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
| | - Gavin A. Cloherty
- Infectious Disease Research, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
- Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition (APDC), Abbott Park, Illinois, USA
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Ma J, Ma S. Dynamics of a stochastic hepatitis B virus transmission model with media coverage and a case study of China. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2023; 20:3070-3098. [PMID: 36899572 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health problem and there are 257 million people living with chronic HBV infection throughout the world. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a stochastic HBV transmission model with media coverage and saturated incidence rate. Firstly, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solution for the stochastic model. Then the condition on the extinction of HBV infection is obtained, which implies that media coverage helps to control the disease spread and the noise intensities on the acute and chronic HBV infection play a key role in disease eradication. Furthermore, we verify that the system has a unique stationary distribution under certain conditions, and the disease will prevail from the biological perspective. Numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate our theoretical results intuitively. As a case study, we fit our model to the available hepatitis B data of mainland China from 2005 to 2021.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiying Ma
- College of Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
| | - Shasha Ma
- College of Science, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
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Albani VVL, Albani RAS, Massad E, Zubelli JP. Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220489. [PMID: 36016918 PMCID: PMC9399708 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of São Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data.
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Affiliation(s)
- V. V. L. Albani
- Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - R. A. S. Albani
- Instituto Politecnico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro State University, Nova Friburgo, Brazil
| | - E. Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil
- School of Applied Mathematics, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - J. P. Zubelli
- Mathematics Department, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE
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Alexandre M, Marlin R, Prague M, Coleon S, Kahlaoui N, Cardinaud S, Naninck T, Delache B, Surenaud M, Galhaut M, Dereuddre-Bosquet N, Cavarelli M, Maisonnasse P, Centlivre M, Lacabaratz C, Wiedemann A, Zurawski S, Zurawski G, Schwartz O, Sanders RW, Le Grand R, Levy Y, Thiébaut R. Modelling the response to vaccine in non-human primates to define SARS-CoV-2 mechanistic correlates of protection. eLife 2022; 11:75427. [PMID: 35801637 PMCID: PMC9282856 DOI: 10.7554/elife.75427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The definition of correlates of protection is critical for the development of next-generation SARS-CoV-2 vaccine platforms. Here, we propose a model-based approach for identifying mechanistic correlates of protection based on mathematical modelling of viral dynamics and data mining of immunological markers. The application to three different studies in non-human primates evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccines based on CD40-targeting, two-component spike nanoparticle and mRNA 1273 identifies and quantifies two main mechanisms that are a decrease of rate of cell infection and an increase in clearance of infected cells. Inhibition of RBD binding to ACE2 appears to be a robust mechanistic correlate of protection across the three vaccine platforms although not capturing the whole biological vaccine effect. The model shows that RBD/ACE2 binding inhibition represents a strong mechanism of protection which required significant reduction in blocking potency to effectively compromise the control of viral replication.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marie Alexandre
- Department of Public Health, Inserm Bordeaux Population Health Research Centre, University of Bordeaux, Inria SISTM, UMR 1219, Bordeaux, France
| | - Romain Marlin
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Mélanie Prague
- Department of Public Health, Inserm Bordeaux Population Health Research Centre, University of Bordeaux, Inria SISTM, UMR 1219, Bordeaux, France
| | - Severin Coleon
- Vaccine Research Institute, Inserm U955, Créteil, France
| | - Nidhal Kahlaoui
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | | | - Thibaut Naninck
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Benoit Delache
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | | | - Mathilde Galhaut
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Nathalie Dereuddre-Bosquet
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Mariangela Cavarelli
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Pauline Maisonnasse
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | | | | | | | - Sandra Zurawski
- Baylor Scott and White Research Institute, Dallas, United States
| | - Gerard Zurawski
- Baylor Scott and White Research Institute, Dallas, United States
| | | | - Rogier W Sanders
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Roger Le Grand
- Center for Immunology of Viral, Auto-immune, Hematological and Bacterial Diseases (IMVA-HB/IDMIT), Université Paris-Saclay, Inserm, CEA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
| | - Yves Levy
- Vaccine Research Institute, Inserm U955, Créteil, France
| | - Rodolphe Thiébaut
- Department of Public Health, Inserm Bordeaux Population Health Research Centre, University of Bordeaux, Inria SISTM, UMR 1219, Bordeaux, France
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