Harvesting can increase severity of wildlife disease epidemics

Rodent control strategies and Lassa virus: some unexpected effects in Guinea, West Africa

The Natal multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is the host of Lassa mammarenavirus, causing Lassa haemorrhagic fever in West Africa. As there is currently no operational vaccine and therapeutic drugs are limited, we explored rodent control as an alternative to prevent Lassa virus spillover in Upper Guinea, where the disease is highly endemic in rural areas. In a seven-year experiment, we distributed rodenticides for 10-30 days once a year and, in the last year, added intensive snap trapping for three months in all the houses of one village. We also captured rodents both before and after the intervention period to assess their effectiveness by examining alterations in trapping success and infection rates (Lassa virus RNA and IgG antibodies). We found that both interventions reduced the rodent population by 74-92% but swiftly rebounded to pre-treatment levels, even already six months after the last snap-trapping control. Furthermore, while we observed that chemical control modestly decreased Lassa virus infection rates annually (a reduction of 5% in seroprevalence per year), the intensive trapping unexpectedly led to a significantly higher infection rate (from a seroprevalence of 28% before to 67% after snap trapping control). After seven years, we conclude that annual chemical control, alone or with intensive trapping, is ineffective and sometimes counterproductive in preventing Lassa virus spillover in rural villages. These unexpected findings may result from density-dependent breeding compensation following culling and the survival of a small percentage of chronically infected rodents that may spread the virus to a new susceptible generation of mice.

Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species

Modeling of infectious diseases at the livestock-wildlife interface is a unique subset of mathematical modeling with many innate challenges. To ascertain the characteristics of the models used in these scenarios, a scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Fifty-six studies qualified for inclusion. Only 14 diseases at this interface have benefited from the utility of mathematical modeling, despite a far greater number of shared diseases. The most represented species combinations were cattle and badgers (for bovine tuberculosis, 14), and pigs and wild boar [for African (8) and classical (3) swine fever, and foot-and-mouth and disease (1)]. Assessing control strategies was the overwhelming primary research objective (27), with most studies examining control strategies applied to wildlife hosts and the effect on domestic hosts (10) or both wild and domestic hosts (5). In spatially-explicit models, while livestock species can often be represented through explicit and identifiable location data (such as farm, herd, or pasture locations), wildlife locations are often inferred using habitat suitability as a proxy. Though there are innate assumptions that may not be fully accurate when using habitat suitability to represent wildlife presence, especially for wildlife the parsimony principle plays a large role in modeling diseases at this interface, where parameters are difficult to document or require a high level of data for inference. Explaining observed transmission dynamics was another common model objective, though the relative contribution of involved species to epizootic propagation was only ascertained in a few models. More direct evidence of disease spill-over, as can be obtained through genomic approaches based on pathogen sequences, could be a useful complement to further inform such modeling. As computational and programmatic capabilities advance, the resolution of the models and data used in these models will likely be able to increase as well, with a potential goal being the linking of modern complex ecological models with the depth of dynamics responsible for pathogen transmission. Controlling diseases at this interface is a critical step toward improving both livestock and wildlife health, and mechanistic models are becoming increasingly used to explore the strategies needed to confront these diseases.

Chaos, periodic structures, and multistability: Complex dynamical behaviors of an eco-epidemiological model in parameter planes

The environmental characteristics of a biological system are imbibed in some particular parameters of that system. Significant changes in any system parameter exert influence on the system dynamics as well as the persistence of interacting species. In this article, we explore the rich and tangled dynamics of an eco-epidemiological system by studying different parametric planes of the system. In the parameter planes, we find a variety of complex and subtle properties of the system, like the presence of a variety of intricate regular structures within irregular regimes, that cannot be found through a single parameter variation. Also, we find a new type of structure like an "eye" in a parametric plane. We notice the bistability between distinct pairs of attractors and also identify the coexistence of three periodic attractors. The most notable observation of this study is the coexistence of three periodic attractors and a chaotic attractor, which is a rare occurrence in biological systems. We also plot the basins for each set of coexisting attractors and see the existence of fractal basins in the system, which look like a "conch." The appearance of fractal basins in a system causes enormous complications in predicting the system's state in the long run. Variations in initial conditions and changes in parameters in parametric planes are key to managing the behavior of a system.

Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus

Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades in hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate rabies transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull in an area of exceptional rabies incidence in Peru failed to reduce spillover to livestock, despite reducing bat population density. Viral whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated that culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive culling accelerated spread, suggesting that culling-induced changes in bat dispersal promoted viral invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions of density-dependent transmission and localized viral maintenance that underlie culling bats as a rabies prevention strategy and provide an epidemiological and evolutionary framework to understand the outcomes of interventions in complex wildlife disease systems.

PATHOGEN SURVEY AND PREDICTORS OF LYMPHOPROLIFERATIVE DISEASE VIRUS INFECTION IN WILD TURKEYS (MELEAGRIS GALLOPAVO)

Growing populations of Wild Turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo) may result in increased disease transmission among wildlife and spillover to poultry. Lymphoproliferative disease virus (LPDV) is an avian retrovirus that is widespread in Wild Turkeys of eastern North America, and infections may influence mortality and parasite co-infections. We aimed to identify individual and spatial risk factors of LPDV in Maine's Wild Turkeys. We also surveyed for co-infections between LPDV and reticuloendotheliosis virus (REV), Mycoplasma gallisepticum, and Salmonella pullorum to estimate trends in prevalence and examine covariance with LPDV. From 2017 to 2020, we sampled tissues from hunter-harvested (n=72) and live-captured (n=627) Wild Turkeys, in spring and winter, respectively, for molecular detection of LPDV and REV. In a subset of captured individuals (n=235), we estimated seroprevalence of the bacteria M. gallisepticum and S. pullorum using a plate agglutination test. Infection rates for LPDV and REV were 59% and 16% respectively, with a co-infection rate of 10%. Seroprevalence for M. gallisepticum and S. pullorum were 74% and 3.4%, with LPDV co-infection rates of 51% and 2.6%, respectively. Infection with LPDV and seroprevalence of M. gallisepticum and S. pullorum decreased, whereas REV infection increased, between 2018 and 2020. Females (64%), adults (72%), and individuals sampled in spring (76%) had higher risks of LPDV infection than males (47%), juveniles (39%), and individuals sampled in winter (57%). Furthermore, LPDV infection increased with percent forested cover (β=0.014±0.007) and decreased with percent agriculture cover for juveniles (β=-0.061±0.018) sampled in winter. These data enhance our understanding of individual and spatial predictors of LPDV infection in Wild Turkeys and aid in assessing the associated risk to Wild Turkey populations and poultry operations.

Transmission potential of human schistosomes can be driven by resource competition among snail intermediate hosts

Predicting and disrupting transmission of human parasites from wildlife hosts or vectors remains challenging because ecological interactions can influence their epidemiological traits. Human schistosomes, parasitic flatworms that cycle between freshwater snails and humans, typify this challenge. Human exposure risk, given water contact, is driven by the production of free-living cercariae by snail populations. Conventional epidemiological models and management focus on the density of infected snails under the assumption that all snails are equally infectious. However, individual-level experiments contradict this assumption, showing increased production of schistosome cercariae with greater access to food resources. We built bioenergetics theory to predict how resource competition among snails drives the temporal dynamics of transmission potential to humans and tested these predictions with experimental epidemics and demonstrated consistency with field observations. This resource-explicit approach predicted an intense pulse of transmission potential when snail populations grow from low densities, i.e., when per capita access to resources is greatest, due to the resource-dependence of cercarial production. The experiment confirmed this prediction, identifying a strong effect of infected host size and the biomass of competitors on per capita cercarial production. A field survey of 109 waterbodies also found that per capita cercarial production decreased as competitor biomass increased. Further quantification of snail densities, sizes, cercarial production, and resources in diverse transmission sites is needed to assess the epidemiological importance of resource competition and support snail-based disruption of schistosome transmission. More broadly, this work illustrates how resource competition can sever the correspondence between infectious host density and transmission potential.

Hunting alters viral transmission and evolution in a large carnivore

Hunting can fundamentally alter wildlife population dynamics but the consequences of hunting on pathogen transmission and evolution remain poorly understood. Here, we present a study that leverages a unique landscape-scale quasi-experiment coupled with pathogen-transmission tracing, network simulation and phylodynamics to provide insights into how hunting shapes feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) dynamics in puma (Puma concolor). We show that removing hunting pressure enhances the role of males in transmission, increases the viral population growth rate and increases the role of evolutionary forces on the pathogen compared to when hunting was reinstated. Changes in transmission observed with the removal of hunting could be linked to short-term social changes while the male puma population increased. These findings are supported through comparison with a region with stable hunting management over the same time period. This study shows that routine wildlife management can have impacts on pathogen transmission and evolution not previously considered.

Do predators keep prey healthy or make them sicker? A meta-analysis

Ecological theory suggests that predators can either keep prey populations healthy by reducing parasite burdens or alternatively, increase parasitism in prey. To quantify the overall magnitude and direction of the effect of predation on parasitism in prey observed in practice, we conducted a meta-analysis of 47 empirical studies. We also examined how study attributes, including parasite type and life cycle, habitat type, study design, and whether predators were able to directly consume prey contributed to variation in the predator-prey-parasite interaction. We found that the overall effect of predation on parasitism differed between parasites and parasitoids and that whether consumptive effects were present, and whether a predator was a non-host spreader of parasites, were the most important traits predicting the parasite response. Our results suggest that the mechanistic basis of predator-prey interactions strongly influences the effects of predators on parasites and that these effects, although context dependent, are predictable.

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host-pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts' contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex-a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units ("core area"). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

Update on Potentially Zoonotic Viruses of European Bats

Bats have been increasingly gaining attention as potential reservoir hosts of some of the most virulent viruses known. Numerous review articles summarize bats as potential reservoir hosts of human-pathogenic zoonotic viruses. For European bats, just one review article is available that we published in 2014. The present review provides an update on the earlier article and summarizes the most important viruses found in European bats and their possible implications for Public Health. We identify the research gaps and recommend monitoring of these viruses.

Neurologic Manifestations of the World Health Organization's List of Pandemic and Epidemic Diseases

The World Health Organization (WHO) monitors the spread of diseases globally and maintains a list of diseases with epidemic or pandemic potential. Currently listed diseases include Chikungunya, cholera, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Hendra virus infection, influenza, Lassa fever, Marburg virus disease, Neisseria meningitis, MERS-CoV, monkeypox, Nipah virus infection, novel coronavirus (COVID-19), plague, Rift Valley fever, SARS, smallpox, tularemia, yellow fever, and Zika virus disease. The associated pathogens are increasingly important on the global stage. The majority of these diseases have neurological manifestations. Those with less frequent neurological manifestations may also have important consequences. This is highlighted now in particular through the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and reinforces that pathogens with the potential to spread rapidly and widely, in spite of concerted global efforts, may affect the nervous system. We searched the scientific literature, dating from 1934 to August 2020, to compile data on the cause, epidemiology, clinical presentation, neuroimaging features, and treatment of each of the diseases of epidemic or pandemic potential as viewed through a neurologist's lens. We included articles with an abstract or full text in English in this topical and scoping review. Diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential can be spread directly from human to human, animal to human, via mosquitoes or other insects, or via environmental contamination. Manifestations include central neurologic conditions (meningitis, encephalitis, intraparenchymal hemorrhage, seizures), peripheral and cranial nerve syndromes (sensory neuropathy, sensorineural hearing loss, ophthalmoplegia), post-infectious syndromes (acute inflammatory polyneuropathy), and congenital syndromes (fetal microcephaly), among others. Some diseases have not been well-characterized from a neurological standpoint, but all have at least scattered case reports of neurological features. Some of the diseases have curative treatments available while in other cases, supportive care remains the only management option. Regardless of the pathogen, prompt, and aggressive measures to control the spread of these agents are the most important factors in lowering the overall morbidity and mortality they can cause.

Estimating disease prevalence and temporal dynamics using biased capture serological data in a wildlife reservoir: The example of brucellosis in Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)

The monitoring of the disease prevalence in a population is an essential component of its adaptive management. However, field data often lead to biased estimates. This is the case for brucellosis infection of ibex in the Bargy massif (France). A test-and-cull program is being carried out in this area to manage the infection: captured animals are euthanized when seropositive, and marked and released when seronegative. Because this mountainous species is difficult to capture, field workers tend to focus the capture effort on unmarked animals. Indeed, marked animals are less likely to be infected, as they were controlled and negative during previous years. As the proportion of marked animals in the population becomes large, captured animals can no longer be considered as an unbiased sample of the population. We designed an integrated Bayesian model to correct this bias, by estimating the seroprevalence in the population as the combination of the separate estimates of the seroprevalence among unmarked animals (estimated from the data) and marked animals (estimated with a catalytic infection model, to circumvent the scarcity of the data). As seroprevalence may not be the most responsive parameter to management actions, we also estimated the proportion of animals in the population with an active bacterial infection. The actual infection status of captured animals was thus inferred as a function of their age and their level of antibodies, using a model based on bacterial cultures carried out for a sample of animals. Focusing on the population of adult females in the core area of the massif, i.e. with the highest seroprevalence, this observational study shows that seroprevalence has been divided by two between 2013 (51%) and 2018 (21%). Moreover, the likely estimated proportion of actively infected females in the same population, though very imprecise, has decreased from a likely estimate of 34% to less than 15%, suggesting that the management actions have been effective in reducing infection prevalence.

Are host control strategies effective to eradicate tick-borne diseases (TBD)?

Ticks are responsible for spreading harmful diseases including Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Understanding tick population dynamics and predicting risk of tick-borne disease insurgence helps to design preventive actions against the disease spread. Using a compartmental model describing the pathogen transmission among ticks and hosts, we study the influence of host-targeted tick control strategies with chemical insecticides on tick population and disease transmission dynamics. Our analysis shows that in areas with rapid-growing population of ticks, host-targeted controls using chemical insecticides may enhance disease persistence and even turn a disease-free area to a disease endemic area. Therefore, the complex dynamics of pathogen spread among ticks and hosts should be carefully examined when designing tick control strategies.

Defining New Pathways to Manage the Ongoing Emergence of Bat Rabies in Latin America

Rabies transmitted by common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) has been known since the early 1900s but continues to expand geographically and in the range of species and environments affected. In this review, we present current knowledge of the epidemiology and management of rabies in D. rotundus and argue that it can be reasonably considered an emerging public health threat. We identify knowledge gaps related to the landscape determinants of the bat reservoir, reduction in bites on humans and livestock, and social barriers to prevention. We discuss how new technologies including autonomously-spreading vaccines and reproductive suppressants targeting bats might manage both rabies and undesirable growth of D. rotundus populations. Finally, we highlight widespread under-reporting of human and animal mortality and the scarcity of studies that quantify the efficacy of control measures such as bat culling. Collaborations between researchers and managers will be crucial to implement the next generation of rabies management in Latin America.

DETERMINISTIC PREDATOR–PREY MODELS WITH DISEASE IN THE PREY POPULATION

A class of deterministic predator–prey systems, where the prey population is subject to an infectious disease, is studied. The disease can be transmitted both horizontally and vertically within the host population but cannot be spread between the two trophic levels. Using the mathematical tools of uniform persistence, we derive sufficient conditions for which the interacting populations can coexist. Criteria based on model parameters for which either only the infected prey or healthy prey persists are also provided. It is found through numerical investigations that predation can change competition outcomes between healthy and infected prey populations. Depending on the parameter regimes and initial conditions, predation can either eradicate or promote the disease. As infected prey provides a resource for the predators, disease may promote persistence of the predators. However, infected prey may dominate the predator–prey community if disease is very infectious. In addition, disease in the prey population can mediate a hydra effect in predators and may induce chaotic interactions.

Disease-Induced Mortality Outweighs Hunting in Causing Wild Boar Population Crash After African Swine Fever Outbreak

African swine fever (ASF) has been spreading in the Eurasian continent for more than 10 years now. Although the course of ASF in domestic pigs and its negative economic impact on the pork industry are well-known, we still lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of ASF on wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations under natural conditions. Wild boar is not only a reservoir for ASF; it is also one of the key wildlife species affecting structure and functioning of ecosystems. Therefore, knowledge on how ASF affects wild boar populations is crucial to better predict ecosystem response and for the design of scientific-based wild boar management to control ASF. We used a long-term camera trap survey (2012-2017) from the Białowieza Primeval Forest (BPF, Poland), where an ASF outbreak occurred in 2015, to investigate the impact of the disease on wild boar population dynamics under two contrasting management regimes (hunted vs. non-hunted). In the hunted part of BPF ("managed area"), hunting was drastically increased prior and after the first ASF case occurred (March 2015), whereas inside the National Park, hunting was not permitted ("unmanaged area," first detected case in June 2015). Using a random encounter model (REM), we showed that the density and abundance of wild boar dropped by 84 and 95% within 1 year following ASF outbreak in the unmanaged and managed area, respectively. In the managed area, we showed that 11-22% additional mortality could be attributed to hunting. Our study suggests that ASF-induced mortality, by far, outweighs hunting-induced mortality in causing wild boar population decline and shows that intensified hunting in newly ASF-infected areas does not achieve much greater reduction of population size than what is already caused by the ASF virus.

Fluorescent biomarkers demonstrate prospects for spreadable vaccines to control disease transmission in wild bats

Vaccines that autonomously transfer among individuals have been proposed as a strategy to control infectious diseases within inaccessible wildlife populations. However, rates of vaccine spread and epidemiological efficacy in real-world systems remain elusive. Here, we investigate whether topical vaccines that transfer among individuals through social contacts can control vampire bat rabies-a medically and economically important zoonosis in Latin America. Field experiments in three Peruvian bat colonies, which used fluorescent biomarkers as a proxy for the bat-to-bat transfer and ingestion of an oral vaccine, revealed that vaccine transfer would increase population-level immunity up to 2.6 times beyond the same effort using conventional, non-spreadable vaccines. Mathematical models showed that observed levels of vaccine transfer would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks, even at low but realistically achievable levels of vaccine application. Models further predicted that existing vaccines provide substantial advantages over culling bats-the policy currently implemented in North, Central and South America. Linking field studies with biomarkers to mathematical models can inform how spreadable vaccines may combat pathogens of health and conservation concern before costly investments in vaccine design and testing.

Effect of culling on individual badger Meles meles behaviour: Potential implications for bovine tuberculosis transmission

Culling wildlife as a form of disease management can have unexpected and sometimes counterproductive outcomes. In the UK, badgers Meles meles are culled in efforts to reduce badger-to-cattle transmission of Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (TB). However, culling has previously been associated with both increased and decreased incidence of M. bovis infection in cattle.The adverse effects of culling have been linked to cull-induced changes in badger ranging, but such changes are not well-documented at the individual level. Using GPS-collars, we characterized individual badger behaviour within an area subjected to widespread industry-led culling, comparing it with the same area before culling and with three unculled areas.Culling was associated with a 61% increase (95% CI 27%-103%) in monthly home range size, a 39% increase (95% CI 28%-51%) in nightly maximum distance from the sett, and a 17% increase (95% CI 11%-24%) in displacement between successive GPS-collar locations recorded at 20-min intervals. Despite travelling further, we found a 91.2 min (95% CI 67.1-115.3 min) reduction in the nightly activity time of individual badgers associated with culling. These changes became apparent while culls were ongoing and persisted after culling ended.Expanded ranging in culled areas was associated with individual badgers visiting 45% (95% CI 15%-80%) more fields each month, suggesting that surviving individuals had the opportunity to contact more cattle. Moreover, surviving badgers showed a 19.9-fold increase (95% CI 10.8-36.4-fold increase) in the odds of trespassing into neighbouring group territories, increasing opportunities for intergroup contact.Synthesis and applications. Badger culling was associated with behavioural changes among surviving badgers which potentially increased opportunities for both badger-to-badger and badger-to-cattle transmission of Mycobacterium bovis. Furthermore, by reducing the time badgers spent active, culling may have reduced badgers' accessibility to shooters, potentially undermining subsequent population control efforts. Our results specifically illustrate the challenges posed by badger behaviour to cull-based TB control strategies and furthermore, they highlight the negative impacts culling can have on integrated disease control strategies.

Ecological interventions to prevent and manage zoonotic pathogen spillover

Spillover of a pathogen from a wildlife reservoir into a human or livestock host requires the pathogen to overcome a hierarchical series of barriers. Interventions aimed at one or more of these barriers may be able to prevent the occurrence of spillover. Here, we demonstrate how interventions that target the ecological context in which spillover occurs (i.e. ecological interventions) can complement conventional approaches like vaccination, treatment, disinfection and chemical control. Accelerating spillover owing to environmental change requires effective, affordable, durable and scalable solutions that fully harness the complex processes involved in cross-species pathogen spillover.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover’.

Optimal control of epidemic size and duration with limited resources

The total number of infections (epidemic size) and the time needed for the infection to go extinct (epidemic duration) represent two of the main indicators for the severity of infectious disease epidemics in human and livestock. However, few attempts have been made to address the problem of minimizing at the same time the epidemic size and duration from a theoretical point of view by using optimal control theory. Here, we investigate the multi-objective optimal control problem aiming to minimize, through either vaccination or isolation, a suitable combination of epidemic size and duration when both maximum control effort and total amount of resources available during the entire epidemic period are limited. Application of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to a Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic model, shows that, when the resources are not sufficient to maintain the maximum control effort for the entire duration of the epidemic, the optimal vaccination control admits only bang-bang solutions with one or two switches, while the optimal isolation control admits only bang-bang solutions with one switch. We also find that, especially when the maximum control effort is low, there may exist a trade-off between the minimization of the two objectives. Consideration of this conflict among objectives can be crucial in successfully tackling real-world problems, where different stakeholders with potentially different objectives are involved. Finally, the particular case of the minimum time optimal control problem with limited resources is discussed.

The Critical Role of Infectious Disease in Compensatory Population Growth in Response to Culling

Despite the ubiquity of disease in nature, the role that disease dynamics play in the compensatory growth response to harvesting has been ignored. We use a mathematical approach to show that harvesting can lead to compensatory growth due to a release from disease-induced mortality. Our findings imply that culling in systems that harbor virulent parasites can reduce disease prevalence and increase population density. Our models predict that this compensation occurs for a broad range of infectious disease characteristics unless the disease induces long-lasting immunity in hosts. Our key insight is that a population can be regulated at a similar density by disease or at reduced prevalence by a combination of culling and disease. We illustrate our predictions with a system-specific model representing wild boar tuberculosis infection, parameterized for central Spain, and find significant compensation to culling. Given that few wildlife diseases are likely to induce long-lived immunity, populations with virulent diseases may often be resilient to harvesting.

When to kill a cull: factors affecting the success of culling wildlife for disease control

Culling wildlife to control disease can lead to both decreases and increases in disease levels, with apparently conflicting responses observed, even for the same wildlife-disease system. There is therefore a pressing need to understand how culling design and implementation influence culling's potential to achieve disease control. We address this gap in understanding using a spatial metapopulation model representing wildlife living in distinct groups with density-dependent dispersal and framed on the badger-bovine tuberculosis (bTB) system. We show that if population reduction is too low, or too few groups are targeted, a 'perturbation effect' is observed, whereby culling leads to increased movement and disease spread. We also demonstrate the importance of culling across appropriate time scales, with otherwise successful control strategies leading to increased disease if they are not implemented for long enough. These results potentially explain a number of observations of the dynamics of both successful and unsuccessful attempts to control TB in badgers including the Randomized Badger Culling Trial in the UK, and we highlight their policy implications. Additionally, for parametrizations reflecting a broad range of wildlife-disease systems, we characterize 'Goldilocks zones', where, for a restricted combination of culling intensity, coverage and duration, the disease can be reduced without driving hosts to extinction.

Wildlife Management Practices Associated with Pathogen Exposure in Non-Native Wild Pigs in Florida, U.S

Land use influences disease emergence by changing the ecological dynamics of humans, wildlife, domestic animals, and pathogens. This is a central tenet of One Health, and one that is gaining momentum in wildlife management decision-making in the United States. Using almost 2000 serological samples collected from non-native wild pigs (Sus scrofa) throughout Florida (U.S.), we compared the prevalence and exposure risk of two directly transmitted pathogens, pseudorabies virus (PrV) and Brucella spp., to test the hypothesis that disease emergence would be positively correlated with one of the most basic wildlife management operations: Hunting. The seroprevalence of PrV-Brucella spp. coinfection or PrV alone was higher for wild pigs in land management areas that allowed hunting with dogs than in areas that culled animals using other harvest methods. This pattern did not hold for Brucella alone. The likelihood of exposure to PrV, but not Brucella spp., was also significantly higher among wild pigs at hunted sites than at sites where animals were culled. By failing to consider the impact of dog hunting on the emergence of non-native pathogens, current animal management practices have the potential to affect public health, the commercial livestock industry, and wildlife conservation.

Eco-evolutionary rescue promotes host-pathogen coexistence

Emerging infectious pathogens are responsible for some of the most severe host mass mortality events in wild populations. Yet, effective pathogen control strategies are notoriously difficult to identify, in part because quantifying and forecasting pathogen spread and disease dynamics is challenging. Following an outbreak, hosts must cope with the presence of the pathogen, leading to host-pathogen coexistence or extirpation. Despite decades of research, little is known about host-pathogen coexistence post-outbreak when low host abundances and cryptic species make these interactions difficult to study. Using a novel disease-structured N-mixture model, we evaluate empirical support for three host-pathogen coexistence hypotheses (source-sink, eco-evolutionary rescue, and spatial variation in pathogen transmission) in a Neotropical amphibian community decimated by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in 2004. During 2010-2014, we surveyed amphibians in Parque Nacional G. D. Omar Torríjos Herrera, Coclé Province, El Copé, Panama. We found that the primary driver of host-pathogen coexistence was eco-evolutionary rescue, as evidenced by similar amphibian survival and recruitment rates between infected and uninfected hosts. Average apparent monthly survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts were both close to 96%, and the expected number of uninfected and infected hosts recruited (via immigration/reproduction) was less than one host per disease state per 20-m site. The secondary driver of host-pathogen coexistence was spatial variation in pathogen transmission as we found that transmission was highest in areas of low abundance but there was no support for the source-sink hypothesis. Our results indicate that changes in the host community (i.e., through genetic or species composition) can reduce the impacts of emerging infectious disease post-outbreak. Our disease-structured N-mixture model represents a valuable advancement for conservation managers trying to understand underlying host-pathogen interactions and provides new opportunities to study disease dynamics in remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens.

Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management

Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of infected animals and vaccination had limited effects relative to the efforts devoted, especially in hunted populations in which only quota reduction somewhat improve population recovery. Success of these strategies also relied on the maintenance of a high level of surveillance of hunter-harvested animals. Our findings suggested that, while surveillance and maintenance of population levels at intermediate densities to avoid large epidemics are useful at any time, a 'do nothing' approach during epidemics could be the 'least bad' management strategy in populations of ungulates species facing pestivirus infection.

Time-optimal control strategies in SIR epidemic models

We investigate the time-optimal control problem in SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) epidemic models, focusing on different control policies: vaccination, isolation, culling, and reduction of transmission. Applying the Pontryagin's Minimum Principle (PMP) to the unconstrained control problems (i.e. without costs of control or resource limitations), we prove that, for all the policies investigated, only bang-bang controls with at most one switch are admitted. When a switch occurs, the optimal strategy is to delay the control action some amount of time and then apply the control at the maximum rate for the remainder of the outbreak. This result is in contrast with previous findings on the unconstrained problems of minimizing the total infectious burden over an outbreak, where the optimal strategy is to use the maximal control for the entire epidemic. Then, the critical consequence of our results is that, in a wide range of epidemiological circumstances, it may be impossible to minimize the total infectious burden while minimizing the epidemic duration, and vice versa. Moreover, numerical simulations highlighted additional unexpected results, showing that the optimal control can be delayed also when the control reproduction number is lower than one and that the switching time from no control to maximum control can even occur after the peak of infection has been reached. Our results are especially important for livestock diseases where the minimization of outbreaks duration is a priority due to sanitary restrictions imposed to farms during ongoing epidemics, such as animal movements and export bans.

Prevalence, Genotype Richness, and Coinfection Patterns of Hemotropic Mycoplasmas in Raccoons (Procyon lotor) on Environmentally Protected and Urbanized Barrier Islands

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are successful urban adapters and hosts to a number of zoonotic and nonzoonotic pathogens, yet little is known about their hemoplasma infections and how prevalence varies across habitat types. This study identifies hemotropic Mycoplasma species infection in raccoons from urban and undisturbed habitats and compares hemoplasma infection in sympatric urban cats (Felis catus) from the same geographic region. We collected blood from raccoons (n = 95) on an urban coastal island (n = 37) and an undisturbed coastal island (n = 58) and from sympatric urban cats (n = 39) in Georgia, USA. Based on 16S rRNA gene amplification, 62.1% (59/95) of raccoons and 17.9% (7/39) of feral cats were positive for hemoplasma. There was a greater percentage of hemoplasma-infected raccoons on the undisturbed island (79.3% [46/58]) than on the urban island (35.1% [13/37]; χ2 = 16.9, df = 1, P = 0.00004). Sequencing of the full-length 16S rRNA gene amplicons revealed six hemoplasma genotypes in raccoons, including five novel genotypes that were distinct from three known hemoplasma species identified in the sympatric cats. In addition, the hemoplasma genotypes detected in raccoons were not identified in sympatric cats or vice versa. Although all six hemoplasma genotypes were found in raccoons from urban and undisturbed islands, coinfection patterns differed between sites and among individuals, with the proportion of coinfected raccoons being greater in the undisturbed site. This study shows that raccoons are hosts for several novel hemoplasmas and that habitat type influences infection patterns.IMPORTANCE This study provides information about novel hemoplasmas identified in raccoons (Procyon lotor), which can be used for assessments of the prevalence of these hemoplasmas in raccoon populations and for future studies on the potential pathogenic impacts of these hemoplasmas on raccoon health. Raccoons from the undisturbed habitat had a higher prevalence of hemoplasma infection than urban raccoons. There does not appear to be cross-species transmission of hemotropic mycoplasmas between urban raccoons and feral cats. Raccoons appear to be hosts for several novel hemoplasmas, and habitat type influences infection patterns.

Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population

Demographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease‐induced mortality. Using long‐term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life‐history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density‐dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density‐dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease‐induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.

Effects of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Host Mortality on Disease Spread

The virulent effects of a pathogen on host fecundity and mortality (both intrinsic and extrinsic mortality due to predation) often increase with the age of infection. Age of infection often is also correlated with parasite fitness, in terms of the number of both infective propagules produced and the between-host transmission rate. We introduce a four-population partial differential equations (PDE) model to investigate the invasibility and prevalence of an obligately killing fungal parasite in a zooplankton host as they are embedded in an ecological network of predators and resources. Our results provide key insights into the role of ecological interactions that vary with the age of infection. First, selective predation, which is known both theoretically and empirically to reduce disease prevalence, does not always limit disease spread. This condition dependency relies on the timing and intensity of selective predation and how that interacts with the direct effects of the parasite on host mortality. Second, low host resources and intense predation can prevent disease spread, but once conditions allow the invasion of the parasite, the qualitative dynamics of the system do not depend on the intensity of the selective predation. Third, a comparison of the PDE model with a model based on ordinary differential equations (ODE model) reveals a parametrization for the ODE version that yields an endemic steady state and basic reproductive ratio that are identical to those in the PDE model. Our results highlight the complexity of resource-host-parasite-predator interactions and suggest the need for additional data-theory coupling exploring how community ecology influences the spread of infectious diseases.

Interacting Effects of Newcastle Disease Transmission and Illegal Trade on a Wild Population of White-Winged Parakeets in Peru: A Modeling Approach

Illegal wildlife-pet trade can threaten wildlife populations directly from overharvest, but also indirectly as a pathway for introduction of infectious diseases. This study evaluated consequences of a hypothetical introduction of Newcastle disease (ND) into a wild population of Peru's most trafficked psittacine, the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), through release of infected confiscated individuals. We developed two mathematical models that describe ND transmission and the influence of illegal harvest in a homogeneous (model 1) and age-structured population of parakeets (model 2). Infection transmission dynamics and harvest were consistent for all individuals in model 1, which rendered it mathematically more tractable compared to the more complex, age-structured model 2 that separated the host population into juveniles and adults. We evaluated the interaction of ND transmission and harvest through changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) and short-term host population dynamics. Our findings demonstrated that ND introduction would likely provoke considerable disease-related mortality, up to 24% population decline in two years, but high harvest rates would dampen the magnitude of the outbreak. Model 2 produced moderate differences in disease dynamics compared to model 1 (R0 = 3.63 and 2.66, respectively), but highlighted the importance of adult disease dynamics in diminishing the epidemic potential. Therefore, we suggest that future studies should use a more realistic, age-structured model. Finally, for the presumptive risk that illegal trade of white-winged parakeets could introduce ND into wild populations, our results suggest that while high harvest rates may have a protective effect on the population by reducing virus transmission, the combined effects of high harvest and disease-induced mortality may threaten population survival. These results capture the complexity and consequences of the interaction between ND transmission and harvest in a wild parrot population and highlight the importance of preventing illegal trade.

First Detection of Antibodies Against African Swine Fever Virus in Faeces Samples

African swine fever (ASF) is a viral, highly lethal haemorrhagic disease of swine with no available vaccine or effective treatment. Introduction of ASF into a country triggers immediate restriction measures that cause significant economic losses and threatens spread to neighbouring countries. Wild boar populations have been recently assigned an essential role in the spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) to European countries. Therefore, effective surveillance and monitoring of wild boar populations is required, but sampling wild boar is logistically challenging and expensive. This study assessed the feasibility of detecting antibodies against ASFV in faeces for later implementation in surveillance and control programmes. Two groups of pigs were experimentally infected with an attenuated ASFV isolate Ken05, and blood, oral fluid and faecal samples were tested for the presence of viral DNA using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to monitor infection progress. Faecal samples were analysed using two indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) based on semipurified viral protein (vp) 72 or purified recombinant vp30 expressed in mammalian cells. Faecal samples from 9 of 10 pigs with non-haemorrhagic diarrhoea tested positive for antibodies against ASFV using the two ELISA tests that showed a positive correlation. The serum sample results from the two indirect ELISAs were compared against results from the reference ELISA technique and the immunoperoxidase test. Our findings indicate the feasibility of faecal sampling for detecting anti-ASFV antibodies, which may provide a practical non-invasive alternative for sampling wild boar populations. In conclusion, the application of these ELISA tests to faecal field samples could be particularly useful to screen for the presence of ASF in field conditions.

Zoonotic Viruses and Conservation of Bats

Many of the recently emerging highly virulent zoonotic diseases have a likely bat origin, for example Hendra, Nipah, Ebola and diseases caused by coronaviruses. Presumably because of their long history of coevolution, most of these viruses remain subclinical in bats, but have the potential to cause severe illnesses in domestic and wildlife animals and also humans. Spillovers from bats to humans either happen directly (via contact with infected bats) or indirectly (via intermediate hosts such as domestic or wildlife animals, by consuming food items contaminated by saliva, faeces or urine of bats, or via other environmental sources). Increasing numbers of breakouts of zoonotic viral diseases among humans and livestock have mainly been accounted to human encroachment into natural habitat, as well as agricultural intensification, deforestation and bushmeat consumption. Persecution of bats, including the destruction of their roosts and culling of whole colonies, has led not only to declines of protected bat species, but also to an increase in virus prevalence in some of these populations. Educational efforts are needed in order to prevent future spillovers of bat-borne viruses to humans and livestock, and to further protect bats from unnecessary and counterproductive culling.

Models for managing wildlife disease

Modelling wildlife disease poses some unique challenges. Wildlife disease systems are data poor in comparison with human or livestock disease systems, and the impact of disease on population size is often the key question of interest. This review concentrates specifically on the application of dynamic models to evaluate and guide management strategies. Models have proved useful particularly in two areas. They have been widely used to evaluate vaccination strategies, both for protecting endangered species and for preventing spillover from wildlife to humans or livestock. They have also been extensively used to evaluate culling strategies, again both for diseases in species of conservation interest and to prevent spillover. In addition, models are important to evaluate the potential of parasites and pathogens as biological control agents. The review concludes by identifying some key research gaps, which are further development of models of macroparasites, deciding on appropriate levels of complexity, modelling genetic management and connecting models to data.

A novel epidemiological model to better understand and predict the observed seasonal spread of Pestivirus in Pyrenean chamois populations

Seasonal variations in individual contacts give rise to a complex interplay between host demography and pathogen transmission. This is particularly true for wild populations, which highly depend on their natural habitat. These seasonal cycles induce variations in pathogen transmission. The seasonality of these biological processes should therefore be considered to better represent and predict pathogen spread. In this study, we sought to better understand how the seasonality of both the demography and social contacts of a mountain ungulate population impacts the spread of a pestivirus within, and the dynamics of, this population. We propose a mathematical model to represent this complex biological system. The pestivirus can be transmitted both horizontally through direct contact and vertically in utero. Vertical transmission leads to abortion or to the birth of persistently infected animals with a short life expectancy. Horizontal transmission involves a complex dynamics because of seasonal variations in contact among sexes and age classes. We performed a sensitivity analysis that identified transmission rates and disease-related mortality as key parameters. We then used data from a long-term demographic and epidemiological survey of the studied population to estimate these mostly unknown epidemiological parameters. Our model adequately represents the system dynamics, observations and model predictions showing similar seasonal patterns. We show that the virus has a significant impact on population dynamics, and that persistently infected animals play a major role in the epidemic dynamics. Modeling the seasonal dynamics allowed us to obtain realistic prediction and to identify key parameters of transmission.

Ecological dynamics of emerging bat virus spillover

Viruses that originate in bats may be the most notorious emerging zoonoses that spill over from wildlife into domestic animals and humans. Understanding how these infections filter through ecological systems to cause disease in humans is of profound importance to public health. Transmission of viruses from bats to humans requires a hierarchy of enabling conditions that connect the distribution of reservoir hosts, viral infection within these hosts, and exposure and susceptibility of recipient hosts. For many emerging bat viruses, spillover also requires viral shedding from bats, and survival of the virus in the environment. Focusing on Hendra virus, but also addressing Nipah virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus and coronaviruses, we delineate this cross-species spillover dynamic from the within-host processes that drive virus excretion to land-use changes that increase interaction among species. We describe how land-use changes may affect co-occurrence and contact between bats and recipient hosts. Two hypotheses may explain temporal and spatial pulses of virus shedding in bat populations: episodic shedding from persistently infected bats or transient epidemics that occur as virus is transmitted among bat populations. Management of livestock also may affect the probability of exposure and disease. Interventions to decrease the probability of virus spillover can be implemented at multiple levels from targeting the reservoir host to managing recipient host exposure and susceptibility.

Complex Daphnia interactions with parasites and competitors

Species interactions can strongly influence the size and dynamics of epidemics in populations of focal hosts. The "dilution effect" provides a particularly interesting type of interaction from a biological standpoint. Diluters - other host species which resist infection but remove environmentally-distributed propagules of parasites (spores) - should reduce disease prevalence in focal hosts. However, diluters and focal hosts may compete for shared resources. This combination of positive (dilution) and negative (competition) effects could greatly complicate, even undermine, the benefits of dilution and diluter species from the perspective of the focal host. Motivated by an example from the plankton (i.e., zooplankton hosts, a fungal parasite, and algal resources), we study a model of dilution and competition. Our model reveals a suite of five results: • A diluter that is a superior competitor wipes out the host, regardless of parasitism. Although expected, this outcome is an ever-present danger in strategies that might use diluters to control disease. • If the diluter is an inferior competitor, it can reduce disease prevalence, despite the competition, as parameterized in our model. However, competition may also reduce density of susceptible hosts to levels below that seen in focal host-parasite systems alone. • As they decrease disease prevalence, diluters destabilize dynamics of the focal host and their resources. Thus, diluters undermine the stabilizing effects of disease. • The four species combination can generate very complex dynamics, including period-doubling bifurcations and torus (Neimark-Sacker) bifurcations. • At lower resource carrying capacity, the diluter’s dilution of spores is 'helpful' to the focal host, i.e., dilution can elevate host density by reducing disease. But, as the resource carrying capacity increases further, the equilibrium density of the diluter increases while the density of the focal host decreases, despite competition. Namely, the negative effects of competition start to outweigh the positive effects of dilution from the perspective of equilibrium density of the focal host.

Suitability of faeces and tissue samples as a basis for non-invasive sampling for African swine fever in wild boar

A challenging aspect of ASFV control in wild boar populations is the design and implementation of effective surveillance and monitoring programmes, both for early warning, and to determine the ongoing epidemiological situation in an infected population. Testing blood samples requires invasive sampling strategies like hunting or capture of wild boar. Besides being biased towards healthy animals, such strategies are also linked to further spread of the virus. Non-invasive sampling strategies would increase the reliability of surveillance of ASFV in wild boar populations, without the negative side effects. This study evaluates the potential of faeces and tissue samples as a basis for non-invasive sampling strategies for ASFV in wild boar. In the acute phase (0-21 days after infection), in comparison with virus detection in blood, virus can be detected in faeces 50-80% of the time. This percentage decreases to below 10% for the subacute/chronic phase. ASFV DNA is quite stable in faeces. Half-lives range from more than 2 years at temperature up to 12°C, to roughly 15 days at temperatures of 30°C. In tissue samples, stored at 20°C, half-lives mostly range from 1.7 to 7.4 days. The sample of preference is the spleen, where the highest titres and highest half-life of ASFV DNA are observed. The level and duration of excretion of ASFV in the faeces, combined with the stability of the DNA, suggest that sampling of faeces could be the basis for a non-invasive sampling strategy to monitor ASFV in wild boar.

Fertility control to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts: a review

As human populations grow, conflicts with wildlife increase. Concurrently, concerns about the welfare, safety and environmental impacts of conventional lethal methods of wildlife management restrict the options available for conflict mitigation. In parallel, there is increasing interest in using fertility control to manage wildlife. The present review aimed at analysing trends in research on fertility control for wildlife, illustrating developments in fertility-control technologies and delivery methods of fertility-control agents, summarising the conclusions of empirical and theoretical studies of fertility control applied at the population level and offering criteria to guide decisions regarding the suitability of fertility control to mitigate human–wildlife conflicts. The review highlighted a growing interest in fertility control for wildlife, underpinned by increasing numbers of scientific studies. Most current practical applications of fertility control for wild mammals use injectable single-dose immunocontraceptive vaccines mainly aimed at sterilising females, although many of these vaccines are not yet commercially available. One oral avian contraceptive, nicarbazin, is commercially available in some countries. Potential new methods of remote contraceptive delivery include bacterial ghosts, virus-like particles and genetically modified transmissible and non-transmissible organisms, although none of these have yet progressed to field testing. In parallel, new species-specific delivery systems have been developed. The results of population-level studies of fertility control indicated that this approach may increase survival and affect social and spatial behaviour of treated animals, although the effects are species- and context-specific. The present studies suggested that a substantial initial effort is generally required to reduce population growth if fertility control is the sole wildlife management method. However, several empirical and field studies have demonstrated that fertility control, particularly of isolated populations, can be successfully used to limit population growth and reduce human–wildlife conflicts. In parallel, there is growing recognition of the possible synergy between fertility control and disease vaccination to optimise the maintenance of herd immunity in the management of wildlife diseases. The review provides a decision tree that can be used to determine whether fertility control should be employed to resolve specific human–wildlife conflicts. These criteria encompass public consultation, considerations about animal welfare and feasibility, evaluation of population responses, costs and sustainability.

Superinfection reconciles host-parasite association and cross-species transmission

Parasites are either dedicated to a narrow host range, or capable of exploiting a wide host range. Understanding how host ranges are determined is very important for public health, as well as wildlife, plant, livestock and agricultural diseases. Our current understanding of host–parasite associations hinges on co-evolution, which assumes evolved host preferences (host specialization) of the parasite. Despite the explanatory power of this framework, we have only a vague understanding of why many parasites routinely cross the host species’ barrier. Here we introduce a simple model demonstrating how superinfection (in a heterogeneous community) can promote host–parasite association. Strikingly, the model illustrates that strong host–parasite association occurs in the absence of host specialization, while still permitting cross-species transmission. For decades, host specialization has been foundational in explaining the maintenance of distinct parasites/strains in host species. We argue that host specializations may be exaggerated, and can occur as a byproduct (not necessarily the cause) of host–parasite associations.

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Many parasites appear to exhibit host specificity.

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Many parasites are also efficient in cross-species transmissions.

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The above two phenomenon are largely incompatible without adaptive mutations.

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Superinfection facilitates apparent host specificity and cross-species transmission.

React or wait: which optimal culling strategy to control infectious diseases in wildlife

We applied optimal control theory to an SI epidemic model to identify optimal culling strategies for diseases management in wildlife. We focused on different forms of the objective function, including linear control, quadratic control, and control with limited amount of resources. Moreover, we identified optimal solutions under different assumptions on disease-free host dynamics, namely: self-regulating logistic growth, Malthusian growth, and the case of negligible demography. We showed that the correct characterization of the disease-free host growth is crucial for defining optimal disease control strategies. By analytical investigations of the model with negligible demography, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy for the linear control can be either to cull at the maximum rate at the very beginning of the epidemic (reactive culling) when the culling cost is low, or never to cull, when culling cost is high. On the other hand, in the cases of quadratic control or limited resources, we demonstrated that the optimal strategy is always reactive. Numerical analyses for hosts with logistic growth showed that, in the case of linear control, the optimal strategy is always reactive when culling cost is low. In contrast, if the culling cost is high, the optimal strategy is to delay control, i.e. not to cull at the onset of the epidemic. Finally, we showed that for diseases with the same basic reproduction number delayed control can be optimal for acute infections, i.e. characterized by high disease-induced mortality and fast dynamics, while reactive control can be optimal for chronic ones.

Modeling seasonal behavior changes and disease transmission with application to chronic wasting disease

Behavior and habitat of wildlife animals change seasonally according to environmental conditions. Mathematical models need to represent this seasonality to be able to make realistic predictions about the future of a population and the effectiveness of human interventions. Managing and modeling disease in wild animal populations requires particular care in that disease transmission dynamics is a critical consideration in the etiology of both human and animal diseases, with different transmission paradigms requiring different disease risk management strategies. Since transmission of infectious diseases among wildlife depends strongly on social behavior, mechanisms of disease transmission could also change seasonally. A specific consideration in this regard confronted by modellers is whether the contact rate between individuals is density-dependent or frequency-dependent. We argue that seasonal behavior changes could lead to a seasonal shift between density and frequency dependence. This hypothesis is explored in the case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal disease that affects deer, elk and moose in many areas of North America. Specifically, we introduce a strategic CWD risk model based on direct disease transmission that accounts for the seasonal change in the transmission dynamics and habitats occupied, guided by information derived from cervid ecology. The model is composed of summer and winter susceptible-infected (SI) equations, with frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission dynamics, respectively. The model includes impulsive birth events with density-dependent birth rate. We determine the basic reproduction number as a weighted average of two seasonal reproduction numbers. We parameterize the model from data derived from the scientific literature on CWD and deer ecology, and conduct global and local sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number. We explore the effectiveness of different culling strategies for the management of CWD: although summer culling seems to be an effective disease eradication strategy, the total culling rate is limited by the requirement to preserve the herd.

Unexpected consequences of culling on the eradication of wildlife diseases: the role of virulence evolution

The removal of individuals from an infected population (culling) is a common strategy used to eradicate wildlife diseases. The manipulation of host density can impose strong selective pressures on pathogen virulence by changing the ecological conditions, thus affecting the effectiveness of eradication programs. We present an analysis of the effect of virulence evolution on culling by extending a susceptible-infected model to the case of competing strains with superinfection. To assess both short- and long-term effects, we first carried out the analysis on an ecological timescale, with a two-strain competition model; then we explore the dynamics of a continuum of pathogenic strains on evolutionary timescales using a quantitative genetics approach (when infection and evolutionary processes occur on comparable timescales) and a game-theoretic approach (when evolutionary processes occur on a slower scale). We demonstrate that the competition among pathogenic variants in the presence of superinfection affects outcome of culling campaigns, since increased host mortality may select for less virulent strains able to establish in sparser populations. This can lead to the counterintuitive result that disease abundance and prevalence may even increase with culling, thus making the eradication of infections considerably less likely. This is particularly relevant in the case of zoonoses where higher prevalence and abundance of pathogens in wild reservoirs may increase the risk of spillover in livestock and humans.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.