How range shifts induced by climate change affect neutral evolution

Searching for genetic evidence of demographic decline in an arctic seabird: beware of overlapping generations

Genetic data are useful for detecting sudden population declines in species that are difficult to study in the field. Yet this indirect approach has its own drawbacks, including population structure, mutation patterns, and generation overlap. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea), a long-lived Arctic seabird, is currently suffering from rapid alteration of its primary habitat (i.e., sea ice), and dramatic climatic events affecting reproduction and recruitment. However, ivory gulls live in remote areas, and it is difficult to assess the population trend of the species across its distribution. Here we present complementary microsatellite- and SNP-based genetic analyses to test a recent bottleneck genetic signal in ivory gulls over a large portion of their distribution. With attention to the potential effects of population structure, mutation patterns, and sample size, we found no significant signatures of population decline worldwide. At a finer scale, we found a significant bottleneck signal at one location in Canada. These results were compared with predictions from simulations showing how generation time and generation overlap can delay and reduce the bottleneck microsatellite heterozygosity excess signal. The consistency of the results obtained with independent methods strongly indicates that the species shows no genetic evidence of an overall decline in population size. However, drawing conclusions related to the species' population trends will require a better understanding of the effect of age structure in long-lived species. In addition, estimates of the effective global population size of ivory gulls were surprisingly low (~1000 ind.), suggesting that the evolutionary potential of the species is not assured.

Genetic Diversity and Structure of Rear Edge Populations of Sorbus aucuparia (Rosaceae) in the Hyrcanian Forest

Sorbus aucuparia (Rosaceae) is a small tree species widely distributed in Eurasia. The Hyrcanian forest is the southernmost distribution limit of this species. Severe habitat degradation and inadequate human interventions have endangered the long-term survival of this species in this region, and it is necessary to develop and apply appropriate management methods to prevent the loss of its genetic diversity. In this study, we used 10 SSR markers in order to evaluate the genetic diversity of this taxon. Leaf samples were collected from five known populations of S. aucuparia throughout its distribution area in the Hyrcanian forest. Expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.61 (ASH) to 0.73, and according to the M-ratio, all populations showed a significant reduction in effective population size, indicating a genetic bottleneck. Global FST was not statistically significant and attained the same values with and without excluding null alleles (ENA) correction (FST = 0.12). Bayesian analysis performed with STRUCTURE defined two genetic clusters among the five known populations, while the results of discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) identified three distinct groups. The average proportion of migrants was 22. In general, the gene flow was asymmetrical, with the biggest differences between immigration and emigration in Barzekoh and Asbehriseh. The Mantel test showed that there was no significant correlation between genetic distance (FST) and geographic distance in S. aucuparia. The best pathway for theoretical gene flow is located across the coast of the Caspian Sea and significant spatial autocorrelation was observed in only one population. In order to reduce the extinction risk of very small and scattered populations of S. aucuparia in the Hyrcanian forest, it is very important to establish and/or enhance the connectivity through habitat restoration or genetic exchange.

Genetic Distinctiveness but Low Diversity Characterizes Rear-Edge Thuja standishii (Gordon) Carr. (Cupressaceae) Populations in Southwest Japan

Rear-edge populations are of significant scientific interest because they can contain allelic variation not found in core-range populations. However, such populations can differ in their level of genetic diversity and divergence reflecting variation in life-history traits, demographic histories and human impacts. Using 13 EST-microsatellites, we investigated the genetic diversity and differentiation of rear-edge populations of the Japanese endemic conifer Thuja standishii (Gordon) Carr. in southwest Japan from the core-range in northeast Japan. Range-wide genetic differentiation was moderate (Fst = 0.087), with northeast populations weakly differentiated (Fst = 0.047), but harboring high genetic diversity (average population-level Ar = 4.76 and Ho = 0.59). In contrast, rear-edge populations were genetically diverged (Fst = 0.168), but contained few unique alleles with lower genetic diversity (Ar = 3.73, Ho = 0.49). The divergence between rear-edge populations exceeding levels observed in the core-range and results from ABC analysis and species distribution modelling suggest that these populations are most likely relicts of the Last Glacial Maximum. However, despite long term persistence, low effective population size, low migration between populations and genetic drift have worked to promote the genetic differentiation of southwest Japan populations of T. standishii without the accumulation of unique alleles.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

Genetic Diversity and Range Dynamics of Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Research Highlights: The effects of climate change on habitat loss, range shift and/or genetic impoverishment of mid-elevation plants has received less attention compared to alpine species. Moreover, genetic diversity patterns of mountain forest herbaceous species have scarcely been explored in the Balkans. In this context, our study is the first that aims to examine Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus, a medicinal plant endemic to the southern part of the Balkan Peninsula. Background and Objectives: We compare its genetic diversity and structure along the continuous mountain range of western Greece with the topographically less structured mountains of eastern Greece, and predict its present and future habitat suitability, using several environmental variables. Materials and Methods: Inter Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) markers were used to genotype 80 individuals from 8 populations, covering almost the species’ entire distribution range in Greece. We investigated the factors shaping its genetic composition and driving its current and future distribution. Results: High gene diversity (0.2239–0.3319), moderate population differentiation (0.0317–0.3316) and increased gene flow (Nm = 1.3098) was detected. According to any GCM/RCP/climate database combination, Helleborus odorus subsp. cyclophyllus is projected to lose a significant portion of its current distribution by 2070 and follow a trend towards genetic homogenization. Conclusions: Populations exhibit in terms of genetic structure a west–east genetic split, which becomes more evident southwards. This is mainly due to geographic/topographic factors and their interplay with Quaternary climatic oscillations, and to environmental constraints, which may have a negative impact on the species’ future distribution and genetic composition. Pindos mountain range seems to buffer climate change effects and will probably continue to host several populations. On the other hand, peripheral populations have lower genetic diversity compared to central populations, but still hold significant evolutionary potential due to the private alleles they maintain.

Genetic patterns and changes in availability of suitable habitat support a colonisation history of a North American perennial plant

Climatic fluctuations during the Pleistocene influenced the geographical distribution of plant species across the southern region of California. Following an integrative approach, we combined genetic data analysis with Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) to assess the historical range expansion of Yucca schidigera, a long-lived desert perennial native of the Baja California Peninsula. We genotyped 240 individuals with seven nuclear microsatellite to investigate genetic diversity distribution across 13 populations. Indeed, we used Environmental Niche Models to examine the changes on the distribution of suitable climatic conditions for this species during the LIG (~120 ka), LGM (~22 ka) and Mid Holocene (~6 ka). We detected high genetic diversity across Y. schidigera populations (A_R = 9.94 ± 0.38 SE; H_exp = 0.791 ± 0.011 SE) with genetic variation decreasing significantly with latitude (allelic richness: R ²  = 0.38, P = 0.023; expected heterocigosity: R²  = 0.32, P = 0.042). We observed low, but significant genetic differentiation (F_ST  = 0.0678; P < 0.001) which was consistent with the parapatric distribution of the three genetic groupings detected by the Bayesian clustering algorithm. The ENMs suggest that suitable habitat for this species increased since the LGM. Our results support a range expansion of Y. schidigera across northwestern Baja California during the late Quaternary. Genetic data suggest that colonization of the current distribution followed a southward directionality as suitable climatic conditions became widely available in this region. High genetic variation across our sample suggests large historic effective population sizes for this section of the geographical range.

Population genetic signatures of a climate change driven marine range extension

Shifts in species distribution, or 'range shifts', are one of the most commonly documented responses to ocean warming, with important consequences for the function and structure of ecosystems, and for socio-economic activities. Understanding the genetic signatures of range shifts can help build our knowledge of the capacity of species to establish and persist in colonised areas. Here, seven microsatellite loci were used to examine the population connectivity, genetic structure and diversity of Octopus tetricus, which has extended its distribution several hundred kilometres polewards associated with the southwards extension of the warm East Australian Current along south-eastern Australia. The historical distribution and the range extension zones had significant genetic differences but levels of genetic diversity were comparable. The population in the range extension zone was sub-structured, contained relatively high levels of self-recruitment and was sourced by migrants from along the entire geographic distribution. Genetic bottlenecks and changes in population size were detected throughout the range extension axis. Persistent gene flow from throughout the historical zone and moderate genetic diversity may buffer the genetic bottlenecks and favour the range extension of O. tetricus. These characteristics may aid adaptation, establishment, and long-term persistence of the population in the range extension zone.

Evolutionary and demographic processes shaping geographic patterns of genetic diversity in a keystone species, the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

The past processes that have shaped geographic patterns of genetic diversity may be difficult to infer from current patterns. However, in species with sex differences in dispersal, differing phylogeographic patterns between mitochondrial (mt) and nuclear (nu) DNA may provide contrasting insights into past events. Forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) were impacted by climate and habitat change during the Pleistocene, which likely shaped phylogeographic patterns in mitochondrial (mt) DNA that have persisted due to limited female dispersal. By contrast, the nuclear (nu) DNA phylogeography of forest elephants in Central Africa has not been determined. We therefore examined the population structure of Central African forest elephants by genotyping 94 individuals from six localities at 21 microsatellite loci. Between forest elephants in western and eastern Congolian forests, there was only modest genetic differentiation, a pattern highly discordant with that of mtDNA. Nuclear genetic patterns are consistent with isolation by distance. Alternatively, male-mediated gene flow may have reduced the previous regional differentiation in Central Africa suggested by mtDNA patterns, which likely reflect forest fragmentation during the Pleistocene. In species like elephants, male-mediated gene flow erases the nuclear genetic signatures of past climate and habitat changes, but these continue to persist as patterns in mtDNA because females do not disperse. Conservation implications of these results are discussed.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences

Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.

Evidence of rapid change in genetic structure and diversity during range expansion in a recovering large terrestrial carnivore

Recovery of natural populations occurs often with simultaneous or subsequent range expansions. According to population genetic theory, genetic structuring emerges at the expansion front together with decreasing genetic diversity, owing to multiple founder events. Thereupon, as the expansion proceeds and connectivity among populations is established, homogenization and a resurgence of genetic diversity are to be expected. Few studies have used a fine temporal scale combined with genetic sampling to track range expansions as they proceed in wild animal populations. As a natural experiment, the historical eradication of large terrestrial carnivores followed by their recovery and recolonization may facilitate empirical tests of these ideas. Here, using brown bear (Ursus arctos) as model species, we tested predictions from genetic theory of range expansion. Individuals from all over Finland were genotyped for every year between 1996 and 2010 using 12 validated autosomal microsatellite markers. A latitudinal shift of about 110 km was observed in the distribution and delineation of genetic clusters during this period. As the range expansion proceeded, we found, as theory predicts, that the degree of genetic structure decreased, and that both genetic variation and admixture increased. The genetic consequences of range expansions may first be detected after multiple generations, but we found major changes in genetic composition after just 1.5 generations, accompanied by population growth and increased migration. These rapid genetic changes suggest an ongoing concerted action of geographical and demographic expansion combined with substantial immigration of bears from Russia during the recovery of brown bears within the large ecosystem of northern Europe.

Illuminating geographical patterns in species' range shifts

Species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change have been widely documented, but although complex spatial patterns in species' responses are expected to be common, comprehensive comparisons of species' ranges over time have undergone little investigation. Here, we outline a modeling framework based on historical and current species distribution records for disentangling different drivers (i.e. climatic vs. nonclimatic) and assessing distinct facets (i.e. colonization, extirpation, persistence, and lags) of species' range shifts. We used extensive monitoring data for stream fish assemblages throughout France to assess range shifts for 32 fish species between an initial period (1980-1992) and a contemporary one (2003-2009). Our results provide strong evidence that the responses of individual species varied considerably and exhibited complex mosaics of spatial rearrangements. By dissociating range shifts in climatically suitable and unsuitable habitats, we demonstrated that patterns in climate-driven colonization and extirpation were less marked than those attributed to nonclimatic drivers, although this situation could rapidly shift in the near future. We also found evidence that range shifts could be related to some species' traits and that the traits involved varied depending on the facet of range shift considered. The persistence of populations in climatically unsuitable areas was greater for short-lived species, whereas the extent of the lag behind climate change was greater for long-lived, restricted-range, and low-elevation species. We further demonstrated that nonclimatic extirpations were primarily related to the size of the species' range, whereas climate-driven extirpations were better explained by thermal tolerance. Thus, the proposed framework demonstrated its potential for markedly improving our understanding of the key processes involved in range shifting and also offers a template for informing management decisions. Conservation strategies would greatly benefit from identifying both the geographical patterns and the species' traits associated with complex modifications of species' distributions in response to global changes.

Conserving plants in gene banks and nature: investigating complementarity with Trifolium thompsonii Morton

A standard conservation strategy for plant genetic resources integrates in situ (on-farm or wild) and ex situ (gene or field bank) approaches. Gene bank managers collect ex situ accessions that represent a comprehensive snap shot of the genetic diversity of in situ populations at a given time and place. Although simple in theory, achieving complementary in situ and ex situ holdings is challenging. Using Trifolium thompsonii as a model insect-pollinated herbaceous perennial species, we used AFLP markers to compare genetic diversity and structure of ex situ accessions collected at two time periods (1995, 2004) from four locations, with their corresponding in situ populations sampled in 2009. Our goal was to assess the complementarity of the two approaches. We examined how gene flow, selection and genetic drift contributed to population change. Across locations, we found no difference in diversity between ex situ and in situ samples. One population showed a decline in genetic diversity over the 15 years studied. Population genetic differentiation among the four locations was significant, but weak. Association tests suggested infrequent, long distance gene flow. Selection and drift occurred, but differences due to spatial effects were three times as strong as differences attributed to temporal effects, and suggested recollection efforts could occur at intervals greater than fifteen years. An effective collecting strategy for insect pollinated herbaceous perennial species was to sample >150 plants, equalize maternal contribution, and sample along random transects with sufficient space between plants to minimize intrafamilial sampling. Quantifying genetic change between ex situ and in situ accessions allows genetic resource managers to validate ex situ collecting and maintenance protocols, develop appropriate recollection intervals, and provide an early detection mechanism for identifying problematic conditions that can be addressed to prevent further decline in vulnerable in situ populations.

Spatial genetic structure patterns of phenotype-limited and boundary-limited expanding populations: a simulation study

Range expansions may create a unique spatial genetic pattern characterized by alternate genetically homogeneous domains and allele frequency clines. Previous attempts to model range expansions have mainly focused on the loss of genetic diversity during expansions. Using individual-based models, we examined spatial genetic patterns under two expansion scenarios, boundary-limited range expansions (BLRE) and phenotype-limited range expansions (PhLRE). Our simulation revealed that the genetic diversity within populations lost quickly during the range expansion, while the genetic difference accumulated between populations. Consequently, accompanying the expansions, the overall diversity featured a slow decrease. Specifically, during BLREs, high speed of boundary motion facilitated the maintenance of total genetic diversity and sharpened genetic clines. Very slight constraints on boundary motion of BLREs drastically narrowed the homogeneous domains and increased the allele frequency fluctuations from those levels exhibited by PhLREs. Even stronger constraints, however, surprisingly brought the width of homogeneous domains and the allele frequency fluctuations back to the normal levels of PhLREs. Furthermore, high migration rates maintained a higher total genetic diversity than low ones did during PhLREs. Whereas, the total genetic diversities during BLREs showed a contrary pattern: higher when migration was low than those when migration was high. Besides, the increase of migration rates helped maintain a greater number of homogeneous domains during PhLREs, but their effects on the number of homogeneous domains during BLREs were not monotonous. Previous studies have showed that the homogenous domains can merge to form a few broad domains as the expansion went on, leading to fewer homogeneous domains. Our simulations, meanwhile, revealed that the range expansions could also rebuild homogeneous domains from the clines during the range expansion. It is possible that that the number of homogeneous domains was determined by the interaction of merging and newly emerging homogeneous domains.

Rapid range expansion increases genetic differentiation while causing limited reduction in genetic diversity in a damselfly

Many ectothermic species are currently expanding their geographic range due to global warming. This can modify the population genetic diversity and structure of these species because of genetic drift during the colonization of new areas. Although the genetic signatures of historical range expansions have been investigated in an array of species, the genetic consequences of natural, contemporary range expansions have received little attention, with the only studies available focusing on range expansions along a narrow front. We investigate the genetic consequences of a natural range expansion in the Mediterranean damselfly Coenagrion scitulum, which is currently rapidly expanding along a broad front in different directions. We assessed genetic diversity and genetic structure using 12 microsatellite markers in five centrally located populations and five recently established populations at the edge of the geographic distribution. Our results suggest that, although a marginal significant decrease in the allelic richness was found in the edge populations, genetic diversity has been preserved during the range expansion of this species. Nevertheless, edge populations were genetically more differentiated compared with core populations, suggesting genetic drift during the range expansion. The smaller effective population sizes of the edge populations compared with central populations also suggest a contribution of genetic drift after colonization. We argue and document that range expansion along multiple axes of a broad expansion front generates little reduction in genetic diversity, yet stronger differentiation of the edge populations.

The fate of cooperation during range expansions

Species expand their geographical ranges following an environmental change, long range dispersal, or a new adaptation. Range expansions not only bring an ecological change, but also affect the evolution of the expanding species. Although the dynamics of deleterious, neutral, and beneficial mutations have been extensively studied in expanding populations, the fate of alleles under frequency-dependent selection remains largely unexplored. The dynamics of cooperative alleles are particularly interesting because selection can be both frequency and density dependent, resulting in a coupling between population and evolutionary dynamics. This coupling leads to an increase in the frequency of cooperators at the expansion front, and, under certain conditions, the entire front can be taken over by cooperators. Thus, a mixed population wave can split into an expansion wave of only cooperators followed by an invasion wave of defectors. After the splitting, cooperators increase in abundance by expanding into new territories faster than they are invaded by defectors. Our results not only provide an explanation for the maintenance of cooperation but also elucidate the effect of eco-evolutionary feedback on the maintenance of genetic diversity during range expansions. When cooperators do not split away, we find that defectors can spread much faster with cooperators than they would be able to on their own or by invading cooperators. This enhanced rate of expansion in mixed waves could counterbalance the loss of genetic diversity due to the founder effect for mutations under frequency-dependent selection. Although we focus on cooperator-defector interactions, our analysis could also be relevant for other systems described by reaction-diffusion equations.

Cooperation is beneficial for the species as a whole, but, at the level of an individual, defection pays off. Natural selection is then expected to favor defectors and eliminate cooperation. This prediction is in stark contrast with the abundance of cooperation at all levels of biological systems: from bacterial biofilms to ecosystems and human societies. Several explanations have been proposed to resolve this paradox, including direct reciprocity and group selection. Our work, however, builds upon an observation that natural selection on cooperators might depend both on their relative frequency in the population and on the population density. We find that this feedback between the population and evolutionary dynamics can substantially increase the frequency of cooperators at the front of an expanding population, and can even lead to a splitting of cooperators from defectors. After splitting, only cooperators colonize new territories, while defectors slowly invade them from behind. Since range expansions are very common in nature, our work provides a new explanation of the maintenance of cooperation. More generally, the phenomena we describe could be of interest in other situations when coexisting entities spread in space, be it species in ecology or diffusing and reacting molecules in chemical kinetics.

Founder takes all: density-dependent processes structure biodiversity

Density-dependent processes play a key role in the spatial structuring of biodiversity. Specifically, interrelated demographic processes, such as gene surfing, high-density blocking, and competitive exclusion, can generate striking geographic contrasts in the distributions of genes and species. Here, we propose that well-studied evolutionary and ecological biogeographic patterns of postglacial recolonization, progressive island colonization, microbial sectoring, and even the 'Out of Africa' pattern of human expansion, are fundamentally similar, underpinned by a 'founder takes all' density-dependent principle. Additionally, we hypothesize that older historic constraints of density-dependent processes are seen today in the dramatic biogeographic shifts that occur in response to human-mediated extinction events, whereby surviving lineages rapidly expand their ranges to replace extinct sister taxa.

The coalescent in boundary-limited range expansions

Habitat ranges of most species shift over time, for instance due to climate change, human intervention, or adaptation. These demographic changes often have drastic population genetic effects, such as a stochastic resampling of the gene pool through the "surfing" phenomenon. Most models assume that the speed of range expansions is only limited by the dispersal ability of the colonizing species and its reproductive potential. While such models of "phenotype-limited" expansions apply to species invasions, it is clear that many range expansions are limited rather by the slow motion of habitat boundaries, as driven for instance by global warming. Here, we develop a coalescent model to study the genetic impact of such "boundary-limited" range expansions. Our simulations and analysis show that the resulting loss of genetic diversity is markedly lower than in species invasions if large carrying capacities can be maintained up to the habitat frontier. Counterintuitively, we find that the total loss of diversity does not depend on the speed of the range expansion: Slower expansions have a smaller rate of loss, but also last longer. Boundary-limited range expansions exhibit a characteristic genetic footprint and should therefore be distinguished from range expansions limited only by intrinsic characteristics of the species.

Historical demographic dynamics underlying local adaptation in the presence of gene flow

The range of a species is the result of the relative contribution of spatial tracking of environmental requirements and adaptation to ecological conditions outside the ancestral niche. The appearance of novel habitats caused by climatic oscillation can promote range expansion and accompanying demographic growth. The demographic dynamics of populations leave a signal in \ patterns. We modeled three competing scenarios pertaining to the circumstance of a range expansion by the Karoo Scrub-Robin into newly available habitat resulting from the increasing aridification of southern Africa. Genetic variation was contrasted with the theoretical expectations of a spatial range expansion, and compared with data of a putative adaptive trait. We infer that this bird likely colonized the arid zone, as a consequence of adaptive evolution in a small peripheral population, followed by an expansion with recurrent exchange of migrants with the ancestral populations.

Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely.

Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants

Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST); up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with F(ST) estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Fine-scale genetic structure arises during range expansion of an invasive gecko

Processes of range expansion are increasingly important in light of current concerns about invasive species and range shifts due to climate change. Theoretical studies suggest that genetic structuring may occur during range expansion. Ephemeral genetic structure can have important evolutionary implications, such as propagating genetic changes along the wave front of expansion, yet few studies have shown evidence of such structure. We tested the hypothesis that genetic structure arises during range expansion in Hemidactylus mabouia, a nocturnal African gecko recently introduced to Florida, USA. Twelve highly variable microsatellite loci were used to screen 418 individuals collected from 43 locations from four sampling sites across Florida, representing a gradient from earlier (∼1990s) to very recent colonization. We found earlier colonized locations had little detectable genetic structure and higher allelic richness than more recently colonized locations. Genetic structuring was pronounced among locations at spatial scales of tens to hundreds of meters near the leading edge of range expansion. Despite the rapid pace of range expansion in this introduced gecko, dispersal is limited among many suitable habitat patches. Fine-scale genetic structure is likely the result of founder effects during colonization of suitable habitat patches. It may be obscured over time and by scale-dependent modes of dispersal. Further studies are needed to determine if such genetic structure affects adaptation and trait evolution in range expansions and range shifts.

Consequences of range contractions and range shifts on molecular diversity

Due to past and current climatic changes, range contractions and range shifts are essential stages in the history of a species. However, unlike range expansions, the molecular consequences of these processes have been little investigated. In order to fill this gap, we simulated patterns of molecular diversity within and between populations for various types of range contractions and range shifts. We show that range contractions tend to decrease genetic diversity as compared with population with stable ranges but quite counterintuitively fast range contractions preserve higher levels of diversity and induce lower levels of genetic differentiation among refuge areas than slow contractions. Contrastingly, fast range shifts lead to lower levels of diversity than slow range shifts. At odds with our expectations, we find that species actively migrating toward refuge areas can only preserve higher levels of diversity in refugia if the contraction is rapid. Under slow range contraction or slow range shift, active migration toward refugia lead to a larger loss of diversity as compared with scenarios with isotropic migration and may thus not be a good evolutionary strategy. These results suggest that the levels of diversity preserved after a climate change both within and between refuge areas will not only depend on the dispersal abilities of a species but also on the speed of the change. It also implies that a given episode of climatic change will impact differently species with different generation times.

Evidence for the equal resilience of Triodia spp. (Poaceae), from different functional groups, to frequent fire dating back to the late Pleistocene

Species with different regenerative responses to fire are hypothesised to coexist by utilising the different temporal and spatial niche opportunities created by the stochasticity of the fire regime. This is strongly supported by observations of instability of species' presence and abundance at the local scale while these are stable at the community scale. However, observations of species coexistence in fire-prone communities are limited to several decades only. To improve the robustness of this hypothesis, coalescent analysis, using chloroplast microsatellites, was undertaken on three sympatric species of Triodia from different functional groups in the fire-prone Kimberley region of Western Australia. The results inferred that T. bitextura, an obligate resprouter, Triodia sp., an obligate seeder, and T. epactia, a facultative resprouter, had mean T(mrca) values of 65k, 40k and 111k generations, respectively. Using a mutation rate of 3.2 × 10(-5) and a generation time of 5 years gave T(mrca) values of 436k, 203k and 556 k years, respectively. These results provide evidence for the coexistence of these species to the same fire regime dating back to the late Pleistocene. It also demonstrates the long-term resilience of an obligate seeder, Triodia sp., in a frequently burnt environment at the community scale.

Density-regulated population dynamics and conditional dispersal alter the fate of mutations occurring at the front of an expanding population

There is an increasing recognition that the interplay between ecological and evolutionary processes shapes the genetic footprint of populations during and after range expansions. However, more complex ecological processes regularly considered within spatial ecology remain unexplored in models describing the population genetics of range expansion. In this study we integrate flexible descriptions of population growth and competition as well as conditional dispersal into a model that simulates the fate of mutations occurring at the wave front of an expanding population. Our results show that the survival and distribution of a mutation is not only affected by its bias (that is, whether it is deleterious, neutral or beneficial) but also by the mode of local density regulation and conditional dispersal of the simulated populations. It is in particular the chance of a mutation to establish at the front of advance and 'surf' to high frequencies that critically depends on the investigated ecological processes. This is because of the influence of these processes on demographic stochasticity in the system and the differential responses of deleterious, neutral and beneficial mutations to this stochasticity. Generally, deleterious mutations rely more on chance and thus profit the most from ecological processes that enhance demographic stochasticity during the period of establishment. Our study emphasizes the importance of incorporating more ecological realism into evolutionary models to better understand the consequences of shifting geographic ranges for the genetic structure of populations and to find efficient adaptation strategies to mitigate these effects.

Life-history evolution in range-shifting populations

Most evolutionary theory does not deal with populations expanding or contracting in space. Invasive species, climate change, epidemics, and the breakdown of dispersal barriers, however, all create populations in this kind of spatial disequilibrium. Importantly, spatial disequilibrium can have important ecological and evolutionary outcomes. During continuous range expansion, for example, populations on the expanding front experience novel evolutionary pressures because frontal populations are assorted by dispersal ability and have a lower density of conspecifics than do core populations. These conditions favor the evolution of traits that increase rates of dispersal and reproduction. Additionally, lowered density on the expanding front eventually frees populations on the expanding edge from specialist, coevolved enemies, permitting higher investment into traits associated with dispersal and reproduction rather than defense against pathogens. As a result, the process of range expansion drives rapid life-history evolution, and this seems to occur despite ongoing serial founder events that have complex effects on genetic diversity at the expanding front. Traits evolving on the expanding edge are smeared across the landscape as the front moves through, leaving an ephemeral signature of range expansion in the life-history traits of a species across its newly colonized range. Recent studies suggest that such nonequilibrium processes during recent population history may have contributed to many patterns usually ascribed to evolutionary forces acting in populations at spatial equilibrium.

Ensemble habitat mapping of invasive plant species

Ensemble species distribution models combine the strengths of several species environmental matching models, while minimizing the weakness of any one model. Ensemble models may be particularly useful in risk analysis of recently arrived, harmful invasive species because species may not yet have spread to all suitable habitats, leaving species-environment relationships difficult to determine. We tested five individual models (logistic regression, boosted regression trees, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and maximum entropy model or Maxent) and ensemble modeling for selected nonnative plant species in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Wyoming; Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, California, and areas of interior Alaska. The models are based on field data provided by the park staffs, combined with topographic, climatic, and vegetation predictors derived from satellite data. For the four invasive plant species tested, ensemble models were the only models that ranked in the top three models for both field validation and test data. Ensemble models may be more robust than individual species-environment matching models for risk analysis.

Accelerating invasion rates result from the evolution of density-dependent dispersal

Evolutionary processes play an important role in shaping the dynamics of range expansions, and selection on dispersal propensity has been demonstrated to accelerate rates of advance. Previous theory has considered only the evolution of unconditional dispersal rates, but dispersal is often more complex. For example, many species emigrate in response to crowding. Here, we use an individual-based model to investigate the evolution of density dependent dispersal into empty habitat, such as during an invasion. The landscape is represented as a lattice and dispersal between populations follows a stepping-stone pattern. Individuals carry three 'genes' that determine their dispersal strategy when experiencing different population densities. For a stationary range we obtain results consistent with previous theoretical studies: few individuals emigrate from patches that are below equilibrium density. However, during the range expansion of a previously stationary population, we observe evolution towards dispersal strategies where considerable emigration occurs well below equilibrium density. This is true even for moderate costs to dispersal, and always results in accelerating rates of range expansion. Importantly, the evolution we observe at an expanding front depends upon fitness integrated over several generations and cannot be predicted by a consideration of lifetime reproductive success alone. We argue that a better understanding of the role of density dependent dispersal, and its evolution, in driving population dynamics is required especially within the context of range expansions.

Geographic range limits of species

Understanding the forms that the geographic range limits of species take, their causes and their consequences are key issues in ecology and evolutionary biology. They are also topics on which understanding is advancing rapidly. This themed issue of Proc. R. Soc. B focuses on the wide variety of current research perspectives on the nature and determinants of the limits to geographic ranges. The contributions address important themes, including the roles and influences of dispersal limitation, species interactions and physiological limitation, the broad patterns in the structure of geographic ranges, and the fundamental question of why at some point species no longer evolve the ability to overcome the factors constraining their distributions and thus fail to continue to spread. In this introduction, these contributions are placed in the wider context of these broad themes.