Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Generalism in species interactions is more the consequence than the cause of ecological success

Generalism in resource use is commonly considered a critical driver of population success, species distribution and extinction risk. This idea can be questioned as generalism may be a result rather than the cause of species abundance and range size. We tested these contrasting causal hypotheses focusing on host use in three databases encompassing approximately 44,000 mutualistic (hummingbird-plant), commensalistic (lichen-plant) and parasitic (flea-mammal) interactions in 617 ecological communities across the Americas and Eurasia. Across all interaction types, our analyses indicated that range size and abundance influence the probability of encountering hosts and set the arena for species to express generalism potentials or adapt to new hosts. Hence, our findings support the hypothesis that generalism is a consequence of species ecological success. This highlights the importance of ecological opportunity in driving species characteristics considered key for their survival and conservation.

Singleton-based species names and fungal rarity: Does the number really matter?

Fungi are among the least known organisms on earth, with an estimated number of species between 1.5 and 10 million. This number is expected to be refined, especially with increasing knowledge about microfungi in undersampled habitats and increasing amounts of data derived from environmental DNA sequencing. A significant proportion of newly generated sequences fail to match with already named species, and thus represent what has been referred to as fungal "dark taxa". Due to the challenges associated with observing, identifying, and preserving sporophores, many macro- and microfungal species are only known from a single collection, specimen, isolate, and/or sequence-a singleton. Mycologists are consequently used to working with "rare" sequences and specimens. However, rarity and singleton phenomena lack consideration and valorization in fungal studies. In particular, the practice of publishing new fungal species names based on a single specimen remains a cause of debate. Here, we provide some elements of reflection on this issue in the light of the specificities of the fungal kingdom and global change context. If multiple independent sources of data support the existence of a new taxon, we encourage mycologists to proceed with formal description, irrespective of the number of specimens at hand. Although the description of singleton-based species may not be considered best practice, it does represent responsible science in the light of closing the Linnean biodiversity shortfall.

Climate change is an important predictor of extinction risk on macroevolutionary timescales

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing rapidly and already impacting biodiversity. Despite its importance in future projections, understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which climate mediates extinction remains limited. We present an integrated approach examining the role of intrinsic traits versus extrinsic climate change in mediating extinction risk for marine invertebrates over the past 485 million years. We found that a combination of physiological traits and the magnitude of climate change is necessary to explain marine invertebrate extinction patterns. Our results suggest that taxa previously identified as extinction resistant may still succumb to extinction if the magnitude of climate change is great enough.

The relationship between niche breadth and phylogenetic characteristics of eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Asia

The relationship between spatial distribution and phylogeny has been widely debated in recent decades. To understand biogeographic and evolutionary history relationships and to explore the interspecific similarities and phylogenetic correlations of niche characteristics, we collected and recorded all distribution points for eight species of rhubarb on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, used different methods to describe the ecological niche, and explored the relationship between phylogeny, ecological niche, and distribution range. The results reveal that: (1) the ranges of optimal environmental variables for species with close kinship are not exactly the same, ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species, and the overlap of rhubarb has no significant correlation with phylogeny. Therefore, the impact of ecological dimensions on species formation is greater than that of geographical latitude for the eight species of rhubarb. (2) Among the eight species of rhubarb, the breadth of ecological niche is positively correlated with the current suitable habitat area and negatively correlated with fluctuations in future suitable habitat area. In the future, except for Rheum tanguticum and Rheum palmatum, the suitable planting areas for the other six species of rhubarb will decrease as greenhouse gas emissions concentrations and time increase. Therefore, species with smaller ecological niches are at a greater risk of habitat loss compared to species with larger ecological niches. (3) In both existing and future distribution prediction models of rhubarb, we observed that both the widely distributed Rheum spiciforme and the niche narrow Rheum nobile, all eight species of rhubarb are present in the Hengduan Mountains, based on our analysis, we propose that the Hengduan Mountains should be regarded as a priority conservation area for rhubarb, to preserve the species' biodiversity. Our study lays the groundwork for identifying evolutionary trends in ecological specialization.

Rarity mediates species-specific responses of tropical reef fishes to protection

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are the most widely applied tool for marine biodiversity conservation, yet many gaps remain in our understanding of their species-specific effects, partly because the socio-environmental context and spatial autocorrelation may blur and bias perceived conservation outcomes. Based on a large data set of nearly 3000 marine fish surveys spanning all tropical regions of the world, we build spatially explicit models for 658 fish species to estimate species-specific responses to protection while controlling for the environmental, habitat and socio-economic contexts experienced across their geographic ranges. We show that the species responses are highly variable, with ~40% of fishes not benefitting from protection. When investigating how traits influence species' responses, we find that rare top-predators and small herbivores benefit the most from MPAs while mid-trophic level species benefit to a lesser extent, and rare large herbivores experience adverse effects, indicating potential trophic cascades.

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

Reduced strength and increased variability of extinction selectivity during mass extinctions

Two of the traits most often observed to correlate with extinction risk in marine animals are geographical range and body size. However, the relative effects of these two traits on extinction risk have not been investigated systematically for either background times or during mass extinctions. To close this knowledge gap, we measure and compare extinction selectivity of geographical range and body size of genera within five classes of benthic marine animals across the Phanerozoic using capture-mark-recapture models. During background intervals, narrow geographical range is strongly associated with greater extinction probability, whereas smaller body size is more weakly associated with greater extinction probability. During mass extinctions, the association between geographical range and extinction probability is reduced in every class and fully eliminated in some, whereas the association between body size and extinction probability varies in strength and direction across classes. While geographical range is universally the stronger predictor of survival during background intervals, variation among classes during mass extinction suggests a fundamental shift in extinction processes during these global catastrophes.

Diversity, distribution and intrinsic extinction vulnerability of exploited marine bivalves

Marine bivalves are important components of ecosystems and exploited by humans for food across the world, but the intrinsic vulnerability of exploited bivalve species to global changes is poorly known. Here, we expand the list of shallow-marine bivalves known to be exploited worldwide, with 720 exploited bivalve species added beyond the 81 in the United Nations FAO Production Database, and investigate their diversity, distribution and extinction vulnerability using a metric based on ecological traits and evolutionary history. The added species shift the richness hotspot of exploited species from the northeast Atlantic to the west Pacific, with 55% of bivalve families being exploited, concentrated mostly in two major clades but all major body plans. We find that exploited species tend to be larger in size, occur in shallower waters, and have larger geographic and thermal ranges-the last two traits are known to confer extinction-resistance in marine bivalves. However, exploited bivalve species in certain regions such as the tropical east Atlantic and the temperate northeast and southeast Pacific, are among those with high intrinsic vulnerability and are a large fraction of regional faunal diversity. Our results pinpoint regional faunas and specific taxa of likely concern for management and conservation.

Phylogeography of sharks and rays: a global review based on life history traits and biogeographic partitions

Considerable research exists on the life history traits, evolutionary history, and environmental factors that shape the population genetic structure of marine organisms, including sharks and rays. Conservation concerns are particularly strong for this group as they are highly susceptible to anthropogenic stressors due to a combination of life history traits including late maturity and low fecundity. Here, we provide a review and synthesis of the global phylogeography of sharks and rays. We examined existing data for 40 species of sharks belonging to 17 genera and 19 species of rays belonging to 11 genera. Median joining haplotype networks were constructed for each species for the mtDNA cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (COI), and an Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA) was conducted to understand patterns of genetic diversity and structure across the three major ocean basins-the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Haplotype networks showed very shallow coalescence in most species, a finding previously reported for marine teleosts. Star topologies were predominant among sharks while complex mutational topologies predominated among rays, a finding we attribute to extremely limited dispersal in the early life history of rays. Population structuring varied amongst species groups, apparently due to differences in life history traits including reproductive philopatry, site fidelity, pelagic habitat, migratory habits, and dispersal ability. In comparison to reef-associated and demersal species, pelagic and semi pelagic species showed lower levels of structure between and within ocean basins. As expected, there is variation between taxa and groups, but there are also some broad patterns that can guide management and conservation strategies.

How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species?

Although a growing body of literature recognises the importance of rarity for biodiversity conservation, it is unclear how the interaction of different forms of rarity, extrinsic causes of extinction, and protection affect species' vulnerability. Here we addressed the extinction vulnerability of 2203 shrub and tree species of the South American savanna (SAS). For this, species were attributed a form of rarity, a synergistic risk index (SRI), and a protection index (PI). The SRI combines three extrinsic causes of extinction (climate hazard, fire frequency, and human footprint). The PI is the ratio between the number of a species occurrences within protected areas and the total number of occurrences in the SAS. By combining the SRI and PI, we classified common and rare species into five vulnerability classes. Some regions of the SAS show high values of climate hazard, fire frequency, human footprint, and SRI. Each extrinsic cause of extinction is differently distributed across the SAS and shows no or low spatial congruence with the SRI. Many species show a low ratio of occurrences within PAs, which in combination with high SRI results in high vulnerability to extinction. Surprisingly, the number of common species in the higher vulnerability classes is higher than of rare species. Common and rare species in different vulnerability classes occur in somewhat different locations across the SAS and mainly constitute spatially incongruent centres with high species richness. Given our results, we propose that strategies for the effective conservation of SAS species are challenging and must be carefully designed.

How predictable are mass extinction events?

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

Reduction in animal abundance and oxygen availability during and after the end-Triassic mass extinction

The end-Triassic biodiversity crisis was one of the most severe mass extinctions in the history of animal life. However, the extent to which the loss of taxonomic diversity was coupled with a reduction in organismal abundance remains to be quantified. Further, the temporal relationship between organismal abundance and local marine redox conditions is lacking in carbonate sections. To address these questions, we measured skeletal grain abundance in shallow-marine limestones by point counting 293 thin sections from four stratigraphic sections across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary in the Lombardy Basin and Apennine Platform of western Tethys. Skeletal abundance decreased abruptly across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary in all stratigraphic sections. The abundance of skeletal organisms remained low throughout the lower-middle Hettangian strata and began to rebound during the late Hettangian and early Sinemurian. A two-way ANOVA indicates that sample age (p < .01, η²  = 0.30) explains more of the variation in skeletal abundance than the depositional environment or paleobathymetry (p < .01, η²  = 0.15). Measured I/Ca ratios, a proxy for local shallow-marine redox conditions, show this same pattern with the lowest I/Ca ratios occurring in the early Hettangian. The close correspondence between oceanic water column oxygen levels and skeletal abundance indicates a connection between redox conditions and benthic organismal abundance across the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. These findings indicate that the end-Triassic mass extinction reduced not only the biodiversity but also the carrying capacity for skeletal organisms in early Hettangian ecosystems, adding to evidence that mass extinction of species generally leads to mass rarity among survivors.

Geographic range size, water temperature, and extrinsic threats predict the extinction risk in global cetaceans

Despite the fact that cetaceans provide significant ecological contributions to the health and stability of aquatic ecosystems, many are highly endangered with nearly one-third of species assessed as threatened with extinction. Nevertheless, to date, few studies have explicitly examined the patterns and processes of extinction risk and threats for this taxon, and even less between the two subclades (Mysticeti and Odontoceti). To fill this gap, we compiled a dataset of six intrinsic traits (active region, geographic range size, body weight, diving depth, school size, and reproductive cycle), six environmental factors relating to sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration, and two human-related threat indices that are commonly recognized for cetaceans. We then employed phylogenetic generalized least squares models and model selection to identify the key predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans, as well as in the two subclades. We found that geographic range size, sea surface temperature, and human threat index were the most important predictors of extinction risk in all cetaceans and in odontocetes. Interestingly, maximum body weight was positively associated with the extinction risk in mysticetes, but negatively related to that for odontocetes. By linking seven major threat types to extinction risk, we further revealed that fisheries bycatch was the most common threat, yet the impacts of certain threats could be overestimated when considering all species rather than just threatened ones. Overall, we suggest that conservation efforts should focus on small-ranged cetaceans and species living in warmer waters or under strong anthropogenic pressures. Moreover, further studies should consider the threatened status of species when superimposing risk maps and quantifying risk severity. Finally, we emphasize that mysticetes and odontocetes should be conserved with different strategies, because their extinction risk patterns and major threat types are considerably different. For instance, large-bodied mysticetes and small-ranged odontocetes require special conservation priority.

Beyond functional diversity: The importance of trophic position to understanding functional processes in community evolution

Ecosystem structure—that is the species present, the functions they represent, and how those functions interact—is an important determinant of community stability. This in turn affects how ecosystems respond to natural and anthropogenic crises, and whether species or the ecological functions that they represent are able to persist. Here we use fossil data from museum collections, literature, and the Paleobiology Database to reconstruct trophic networks of Tethyan paleocommunities from the Anisian and Carnian (Triassic), Bathonian (Jurassic), and Aptian (Cretaceous) stages, and compare these to a previously reconstructed trophic network from a modern Jamaican reef community. We generated model food webs consistent with functional structure and taxon richnesses of communities, and compared distributions of guild level parameters among communities, to assess the effect of the Mesozoic Marine Revolution on ecosystem dynamics. We found that the trophic space of communities expanded from the Anisian to the Aptian, but this pattern was not monotonic. We also found that trophic position for a given guild was subject to variation depending on what other guilds were present in that stage. The Bathonian showed the lowest degree of trophic omnivory by top consumers among all Mesozoic networks, and was dominated by longer food chains. In contrast, the Aptian network displayed a greater degree of short food chains and trophic omnivory that we attribute to the presence of large predatory guilds, such as sharks and bony fish. Interestingly, the modern Jamaican community appeared to have a higher proportion of long chains, as was the case in the Bathonian. Overall, results indicate that trophic structure is highly dependent on the taxa and ecological functions present, primary production experienced by the community, and activity of top consumers. Results from this study point to a need to better understand trophic position when planning restoration activities because a community may be so altered by human activity that restoring a species or its interactions may no longer be possible, and alternatives must be considered to restore an important function. Further work may also focus on elucidating the precise roles of top consumers in moderating network structure and community stability.

Global variation in diversification rate and species richness are unlinked in plants

Species richness varies immensely around the world. Variation in the rate of diversification (speciation minus extinction) is often hypothesized to explain this pattern, while alternative explanations invoke time or ecological carrying capacities as drivers. Focusing on seed plants, the world's most important engineers of terrestrial ecosystems, we investigated the role of diversification rate as a link between the environment and global species richness patterns. Applying structural equation modeling to a comprehensive distribution dataset and phylogenetic tree covering all circa 332,000 seed plant species and 99.9% of the world's terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica), we test five broad hypotheses postulating that diversification serves as a mechanistic link between species richness and climate, climatic stability, seasonality, environmental heterogeneity, or the distribution of biomes. Our results show that the global patterns of species richness and diversification rate are entirely independent. Diversification rates were not highest in warm and wet climates, running counter to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, one of the dominant explanations for global gradients in species richness. Instead, diversification rates were highest in edaphically diverse, dry areas that have experienced climate change during the Neogene. Meanwhile, we confirmed climate and environmental heterogeneity as the main drivers of species richness, but these effects did not involve diversification rates as a mechanistic link, calling for alternative explanations. We conclude that high species richness is likely driven by the antiquity of wet tropical areas (supporting the "tropical conservatism hypothesis") or the high ecological carrying capacity of warm, wet, and/or environmentally heterogeneous environments.

Integrating laboratory experiments and biogeographic modelling approaches to understand sensitivity to ocean warming in rare and common marine annelids

Among ectotherms, rare species are expected to have a narrower thermal niche breadth and reduced acclimation capacity and thus be more vulnerable to global warming than their common relatives. To assess these hypotheses, we experimentally quantified the thermal sensitivity of seven common, uncommon, and rare species of temperate marine annelids of the genus Ophryotrocha to assess their vulnerability to ocean warming. We measured the upper and lower limits of physiological thermal tolerance, survival, and reproductive performance of each species along a temperature gradient (18, 24, and 30 °C). We then combined this information to produce curves of each species' fundamental thermal niche by including trait plasticity. Each thermal curve was then expressed as a habitat suitability index (HSI) and projected for the Mediterranean Sea and temperate Atlantic Ocean under a present day (1970-2000), mid- (2050-2059) and late- (2090-2099) 21st Century scenario for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Rare and uncommon species showed a reduced upper thermal tolerance compared to common species, and the niche breadth and acclimation capacity were comparable among groups. The simulations predicted an overall increase in the HSI for all species and identified potential hotspots of HSI decline for uncommon and rare species along the warm boundaries of their potential distribution, though they failed to project the higher sensitivity of these species into a greater vulnerability to ocean warming. In the discussion, we provide some caveats on the implications of our results for conservation efforts.

Core arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are predicted by their high abundance-occupancy relationship while host-specific taxa are rare and geographically structured

Habitat restoration may depend on the recovery of plant microbial symbionts such as arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi, but this requires a better understanding of the rules that govern their community assembly. We examined the interactions of soil and host-associated AM fungal communities between remnant and restored patches of subtropical montane forests. While AM fungal richness did not differ between habitat types, community membership did and was influenced by geography, habitat and host. These differences were largely driven by rare host-specific AM fungi that displayed near-complete turnover between forest types, while core AM fungal taxa were highly abundant and ubiquitous. The bipartite networks in the remnant forest were more specialized and hosts more specific than in the restored forest. Host-associated AM fungal communities nested within soil communities in both habitats, but only significantly so in the restored forest. Our results provide evidence that restored and remnant forests harbour the same core fungal symbionts, while rare host-specific taxa differ, and that geography, host identity and taxonomic resolution strongly affect the observed distribution patterns of these fungi. We suggest that host-specific interactions with AM fungi, as well as spatial processes, should be explicitly considered to effectively re-establish target host and symbiont communities.

A, Pouyaud L, Stuart-Smith RD, Sugeha HY, Valentini A, Vigliola L, Vimono IB, Pellissier L, Manel S. Cross-ocean patterns and processes in fish biodiversity on coral reefs through the lens of eDNA metabarcoding

Increasing speed and magnitude of global change threaten the world's biodiversity and particularly coral reef fishes. A better understanding of large-scale patterns and processes on coral reefs is essential to prevent fish biodiversity decline but it requires new monitoring approaches. Here, we use environmental DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct well-known patterns of fish biodiversity on coral reefs and uncover hidden patterns on these highly diverse and threatened ecosystems. We analysed 226 environmental DNA (eDNA) seawater samples from 100 stations in five tropical regions (Caribbean, Central and Southwest Pacific, Coral Triangle and Western Indian Ocean) and compared those to 2047 underwater visual censuses from the Reef Life Survey in 1224 stations. Environmental DNA reveals a higher (16%) fish biodiversity, with 2650 taxa, and 25% more families than underwater visual surveys. By identifying more pelagic, reef-associated and crypto-benthic species, eDNA offers a fresh view on assembly rules across spatial scales. Nevertheless, the reef life survey identified more species than eDNA in 47 shared families, which can be due to incomplete sequence assignment, possibly combined with incomplete detection in the environment, for some species. Combining eDNA metabarcoding and extensive visual census offers novel insights on the spatial organization of the richest marine ecosystems.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Morphological response accompanying size reduction of belemnites during an Early Jurassic hyperthermal event modulated by life history

One of the most common responses of marine ectotherms to rapid warming is a reduction in body size, but the underlying reasons are unclear. Body size reductions have been documented alongside rapid warming events in the fossil record, such as across the Pliensbachian-Toarcian boundary (PToB) event (~ 183 Mya). As individuals grow, parallel changes in morphology can indicate details of their ecological response to environmental crises, such as changes in resource acquisition, which may anticipate future climate impacts. Here we show that the morphological growth of a marine predator belemnite species (extinct coleoid cephalopods) changed significantly over the PToB warming event. Increasing robustness at different ontogenetic stages likely results from indirect consequences of warming, like resource scarcity or hypercalcification, pointing toward varying ecological tolerances among species. The results of this study stress the importance of taking life history into account as well as phylogeny when studying impacts of environmental stressors on marine organisms.

Temperature stress and disease drives the extirpation of the threatened pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus, in southeast Florida

Rare species population dynamics can elucidate the resilience of an ecosystem. On coral reefs, climate change and local anthropogenic stressors are threatening stony coral persistence, increasing the need to assess vulnerable species locally. Here, we monitored the threatened pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus, population in southeast Florida, USA, in relation to consecutive heat stress events in 2014 and 2015. In the fall of each year, D. cylindrus colonies bleached following intense thermal stress and by June 2020 all monitored colonies died from a white-syndrome type disease. This resulted in the ecological extinction of D. cylindrus in the Southeast Florida Coral Reef Ecosystem Conservation Area (ECA). White-syndrome type disease was first seen in February 2014 on four colonies (19% prevalence) near the major international port, Port Everglades and disease prevalence peaked in fall 2015 (58%). Disease prevalence increased with maximum water temperature, while disease related mortality increased with mean water temperature. Our findings suggest that thermal stress exacerbated underlying stony coral disease, resulting in an outbreak contributing to the ecological extirpation of D. cylindrus in the ECA. We suggest that stony coral resilience is severely compromised by chronic environmental disturbance which hinders community recovery.

Cultural extinction in evolutionary perspective

Cultural diversity is disappearing quickly. Whilst a phylogenetic approach makes explicit the continuous extinction of cultures, and the generation of new ones, cultural evolutionary changes such as the rise of agriculture or more recently colonisation can cause periods of mass cultural extinction. At the current rate, 90% of languages will become extinct or moribund by the end of this century. Unlike biological extinction, cultural extinction does not necessarily involve genetic extinction or even deaths, but results from the disintegration of a social entity and discontinuation of culture-specific behaviours. Here we propose an analytical framework to examine the phenomenon of cultural extinction. When examined over millennia, extinctions of cultural traits or institutions can be studied in a phylogenetic comparative framework that incorporates archaeological data on ancestral states. Over decades or centuries, cultural extinction can be studied in a behavioural ecology framework to investigate how the fitness consequences of cultural behaviours and population dynamics shift individual behaviours away from the traditional norms. Frequency-dependent costs and benefits are key to understanding both the origin and the loss of cultural diversity. We review recent evolutionary studies that have informed cultural extinction processes and discuss avenues of future studies.

Scirpus radicans (Cyperaceae), a newly-discovered native species in Lithuania: population, habitats and threats

A previously unrecorded native species, Scirpus radicans (Cyperaceae), was discovered in the southern part of Lithuania in 2020. Although this species has a large distribution area in other parts of Eurasia, it is currently recognised as threatened in many European countries. Recordings of S. radicans in Lithuania had been expected, as these plants do occur or have been reported to occur in neighbouring regions. The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of S. radicans in southern Lithuania, to determine the occupied areas and the size of populations, to study their capacity of vegetative reproduction, their habitats and associated plant communities, as well as to perform an assessment of the species' conservation status within the country. We studied S. radicans populations at two sites on the shores of Lake Pabezninkai and of Lake Netečius in the Varėna District (southern Lithuania), from August to October 2020. A total of 993 individuals of S. radicans were counted and their stands comprised 0.73 ha. The density of individuals in the studied plots ranged from 0.02 to 0.78 plants/m². Only 0.5% of individuals at Lake Pabezninkai and 20.7% of individuals at Lake Netečius were at the stage of generative reproduction. Individuals at the stage of vegetative reproduction comprised 56.4%, whereas generative individuals amounted to 1.7% of all studied plants. One to seven stolons developed per plant and the mean number of rosettes per stolon was 2.8 ± 1.2. Potentially, a total of ca. 2860 rosettes could be expected from all individuals of the studied plots, but the actual realised rate of vegetative reproduction is unknown. A more detailed study of the reproductive capacities of S. radicans would be required for better understanding the causes of the lately observed decrease of this species in most of the countries of Central Europe. Our analysis of the associated plant communities has enabled us to confirm the presence of a Scirpetus radicantis Nowiński 1930 association previously not recorded in Lithuania. By assessing S. radicans in accordance with the IUCN Criteria, we conclude that this species should be classified as endangered (EN) in Lithuania. Based on this assessment, we propose to include this species on the list of legally protected species of Lithuania. Conservation of shallow lakes with sandy or muddy shores and with significant natural fluctuations of the water level is the main measure for ensuring the survival of S. radicans, as well as other rare and endangered species adapted to such a type of habitat.

Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change

Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.

The preservation potential of terrestrial biogeographic patterns

Extinction events in the geological past are similar to the present-day biodiversity crisis in that they have a pronounced biogeography, producing dramatic changes in the spatial distributions of species. Reconstructing palaeobiogeographic patterns from fossils therefore allows us to examine the long-term processes governing the formation of regional biotas, and potentially helps build spatially explicit models for future biodiversity loss. However, the extent to which biogeographic patterns can be preserved in the fossil record is not well understood. Here, we perform a suite of simulations based on the present-day distribution of North American mammals, aimed at quantifying the preservation potential of beta diversity and spatial richness patterns over extinction events of varying intensities, and after applying a stepped series of taphonomic filters. We show that taphonomic biases related to body size are the biggest barrier to reconstructing biogeographic patterns over extinction events, but that these may be compensated for by both the small mammal record preserved in bird castings, as well as range expansion in surviving species. Overall, our results suggest that the preservation potential of biogeographic patterns is surprisingly high, and thus that the fossil record represents an invaluable dataset recording the changing spatial distribution of biota over key intervals in Earth History.

Assessing extinction risk from geographic distribution data in Neotropical freshwater fishes

Abstract The IUCN Red List (RL) provides high-quality conservation assessments for individual species, yet the rate and scale of environmental deterioration globally challenges the conservation community to develop expedited methods for risk assessment. Here we compare threat assessments for 3,001 species of Neotropical freshwater fishes (NFF) in the IUCN–RL using readily accessible data types as proxies for extinction risk: geographic range, elevation, and species publication date. Furthermore, using geographic and taxonomic data alone, we generated preliminary conservation assessments for 2,334 NFF species currently awaiting IUCN assessment, identifying an additional 671 NFF species as potentially threatened. This number of potentially threatened species represents an increase of 59% over the number of species currently assigned to threat categories by the IUCN–RL. These results substantially expand the number of threatened NFF species from 422 currently on the IUCN RL to 1,093 species as threatened or potentially threatened, representing about 18% of all NFF species. Extinction risk is greater in species with smaller geographic ranges, which inhabit upland rivers, and which were described more recently. We propose the Central and Southern Andes, and Eastern Guiana Shield as priorities in the upcoming IUCN RL assessment of NFF species conservation risk.

Global distribution and conservation status of ecologically rare mammal and bird species

Identifying species that are both geographically restricted and functionally distinct, i.e. supporting rare traits and functions, is of prime importance given their risk of extinction and their potential contribution to ecosystem functioning. We use global species distributions and functional traits for birds and mammals to identify the ecologically rare species, understand their characteristics, and identify hotspots. We find that ecologically rare species are disproportionately represented in IUCN threatened categories, insufficiently covered by protected areas, and for some of them sensitive to current and future threats. While they are more abundant overall in countries with a low human development index, some countries with high human development index are also hotspots of ecological rarity, suggesting transboundary responsibility for their conservation. Altogether, these results state that more conservation emphasis should be given to ecological rarity given future environmental conditions and the need to sustain multiple ecosystem processes in the long-term.

Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends

The Earth’s biota is changing over time in complex ways. A critical challenge is to test whether specific biomes, taxa or types of species benefit or suffer in a time of accelerating global change. We analysed nearly 10,000 abundance time series from over 2000 vertebrate species part of the Living Planet Database. We integrated abundance data with information on geographic range, habitat preference, taxonomic and phylogenetic relationships, and IUCN Red List Categories and threats. We find that 15% of populations declined, 18% increased, and 67% showed no net changes over time. Against a backdrop of no biogeographic and phylogenetic patterning in population change, we uncover a distinct taxonomic signal. Amphibians were the only taxa that experienced net declines in the analysed data, while birds, mammals and reptiles experienced net increases. Population trends were poorly captured by species’ rarity and global-scale threats. Incorporation of the full spectrum of population change will improve conservation efforts to protect global biodiversity.

Conservation biologists often assume that rare (or less abundant) species are more likely to be declining under anthropogenic change. Here, the authors synthesise population trend data for ~2000 animal species to show that population trends cover a wide spectrum of change from losses to gains, which are not related to species rarity.

Shifts in sexual dimorphism across a mass extinction in ostracods: implications for sexual selection as a factor in extinction risk

Sexual selection often favours investment in expensive sexual traits that help individuals compete for mates. In a rapidly changing environment, however, allocation of resources to traits related to reproduction at the expense of those related to survival may elevate extinction risk. Empirical testing of this hypothesis in the fossil record, where extinction can be directly documented, is largely lacking. The rich fossil record of cytheroid ostracods offers a unique study system in this context: the male shell is systematically more elongate than that of females, and thus the sexes can be distinguished, even in fossils. Using mixture models to identify sex clusters from size and shape variables derived from the digitized valve outlines of adult ostracods, we estimated sexual dimorphism in ostracod species before and after the Cretaceous/Palaeogene mass extinction in the United States Coastal Plain. Across this boundary, we document a substantial shift in sexual dimorphism, driven largely by a pronounced decline in the taxa with dimorphism indicating both very high and very low male investment. The shift away from high male investment, which arises largely from evolutionary changes within genera that persist through the extinction, parallels extinction selectivity previously documented during the Late Cretaceous under a background extinction regime. Our results suggest that sexual selection and the allocation of resources towards survival versus reproduction may be an important factor for species extinction during both background and mass extinctions.

High Preservation Potential of Paleogeographic Range Size Distributions in Deep Time

AbstractReconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the "sixth mass extinction." However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction "selectivity" on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth's history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing "false extinctions" in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size-extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.

Flat latitudinal diversity gradient caused by the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is recognized as one of the most pervasive, global patterns of present-day biodiversity. However, the controlling mechanisms have proved difficult to identify because many potential drivers covary in space. The geological record presents a unique opportunity for understanding the mechanisms which drive the LDG by providing a direct window to deep-time biogeographic dynamics. Here we used a comprehensive database containing 52,318 occurrences of marine fossils to show that the shape of the LDG changed greatly during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction from showing a significant tropical peak to a flattened LDG. The flat LDG lasted for the entire Early Triassic (∼5 My) before reverting to a modern-like shape in the Middle Triassic. The environmental extremes that prevailed globally, especially the dramatic warming, likely induced selective extinction in low latitudes and accumulation of diversity in high latitudes through origination and poleward migration, which combined together account for the flat LDG of the Early Triassic.

Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming

Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21^st century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.

How predictable is extinction? Forecasting species survival at million-year timescales

A tenet of conservation palaeobiology is that knowledge of past extinction patterns can help us to better predict future extinctions. Although the future is unobservable, we can test the strength of this proposition by asking how well models conditioned on past observations would have predicted subsequent extinction events at different points in the geological past. To answer this question, we analyse the well-sampled fossil record of Cenozoic planktonic microfossil taxa (Foramanifera, Radiolaria, diatoms and calcareous nanoplankton). We examine how extinction probability varies over time as a function of species age, time of observation, current geographical range, change in geographical range, climate state and change in climate state. Our models have a 70-80% probability of correctly forecasting the rank order of extinction risk for a random out-of-sample species pair, implying that determinants of extinction risk have varied only modestly through time. We find that models which include either historical covariates or account for variation in covariate effects over time yield equivalent forecasts, but a model including both is overfit and yields biased forecasts. An important caveat is that human impacts may substantially disrupt range-risk dynamics so that the future will be less predictable than it has been in the past. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Ecological and Conservation Correlates of Rarity in New World Pitvipers

Rare species tend to be especially sensitive to habitat disturbance, making them important conservation targets. Thus, rarity patterns might be an important guide to conservation efforts. Rabinowitz’s approach defines rarity using a combination of geographical range, habitat specificity, and local abundance, and is frequently used in conservation prioritization. Herein, we use Rabinowitz’s approach to classify the New World (NW) pitvipers (family Viperidae) regarding rarity. We tested whether body size and latitude could predict rarity, and we compared rarity patterns with extinction risk assessments and other prioritization methods in order to detect rare species not classified as threatened or prioritized. Most NW pitvipers have large geographical ranges, high local abundances, and narrow habitat breadths. There are 11.8% of NW pitviper species in the rarest category and they occur along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in southern Central America, in the Andean region of Ecuador, and in eastern Brazil. Rarity in NW pitvipers is inversely related to latitude but is not related to body size. Our results indicate that additional species of NW pitvipers are threatened and/or should be prioritized for conservation. Combining complementary approaches to detect rare and threatened species may substantially improve our knowledge on the conservation needs of NW pitvipers.

Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil-calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa-specific Red Listing status.

Rarity and persistence

Rarity is a population characteristic that is usually associated with a high risk of extinction. We argue here, however, that chronically rare species (those with low population densities over many generations across their entire ranges) may have individual-level traits that make populations more resistant to extinction. The major obstacle to persistence at low density is successful fertilisation (union between egg and sperm), and chronically rare species are more likely to survive when (1) fertilisation occurs inside or close to an adult, (2) mate choice involves long-distance signals, (3) adults or their surrogate gamete dispersers are highly mobile, or (4) the two sexes are combined in a single individual. In contrast, external fertilisation and wind- or water-driven passive dispersal of gametes, or sluggish or sedentary adult life habits in the absence of gamete vectors, appear to be incompatible with sustained rarity. We suggest that the documented increase in frequency of these traits among marine genera over geological time could explain observed secular decreases in rates of background extinction. Unanswered questions remain about how common chronic rarity actually is, which traits are consistently associated with chronic rarity, and how chronically rare species are distributed among taxa, and among the world's ecosystems and regions.

Approaches to Macroevolution: 2. Sorting of Variation, Some Overarching Issues, and General Conclusions

Approaches to macroevolution require integration of its two fundamental components, within a hierarchical framework. Following a companion paper on the origin of variation, I here discuss sorting within an evolutionary hierarchy. Species sorting-sometimes termed species selection in the broad sense, meaning differential origination and extinction owing to intrinsic biological properties-can be split into strict-sense species selection, in which rate differentials are governed by emergent, species-level traits such as geographic range size, and effect macroevolution, in which rates are governed by organism-level traits such as body size; both processes can create hitchhiking effects, indirectly causing the proliferation or decline of other traits. Several methods can operationalize the concept of emergence, so that rigorous separation of these processes is increasingly feasible. A macroevolutionary tradeoff, underlain by the intrinsic traits that influence evolutionary dynamics, causes speciation and extinction rates to covary in many clades, resulting in evolutionary volatility of some clades and more subdued behavior of others; the few clades that break the tradeoff can achieve especially prolific diversification. In addition to intrinsic biological traits at multiple levels, extrinsic events can drive the waxing and waning of clades, and the interaction of traits and events are difficult but important to disentangle. Evolutionary trends can arise in many ways, and at any hierarchical level; descriptive models can be fitted to clade trajectories in phenotypic or functional spaces, but they may not be diagnostic regarding processes, and close attention must be paid to both leading and trailing edges of apparent trends. Biotic interactions can have negative or positive effects on taxonomic diversity within a clade, but cannot be readily extrapolated from the nature of such interactions at the organismic level. The relationships among macroevolutionary currencies through time (taxonomic richness, morphologic disparity, functional variety) are crucial for understanding the nature of evolutionary diversification. A novel approach to diversity-disparity analysis shows that taxonomic diversifications can lag behind, occur in concert with, or precede, increases in disparity. Some overarching issues relating to both the origin and sorting of clades and phenotypes include the macroevolutionary role of mass extinctions, the potential differences between plant and animal macroevolution, whether macroevolutionary processes have changed through geologic time, and the growing human impact on present-day macroevolution. Many challenges remain, but progress is being made on two of the key ones: (a) the integration of variation-generating mechanisms and the multilevel sorting processes that act on that variation, and (b) the integration of paleontological and neontological approaches to historical biology.

Isotopic niche variation from the Holocene to today reveals minimal partitioning and individualistic dynamics among four sympatric desert mice

Species interact with each other and their environment over a range of temporal scales, yet our understanding of resource partitioning and the mechanisms of species coexistence is largely restricted to modern time-scales of years to decades. Furthermore, the relative magnitudes of inter- vs. intraspecific variation in resource use are rarely considered, despite the potential for the latter to influence a species' ability to cope with changing environmental conditions. Modern desert rodent communities are thought to be strongly structured by competitive interactions, with niche partitioning of food resources hypothesized to explain the coexistence of multiple sympatric granivores. Yet the stability of niche dynamics over extended temporal scales within desert rodent communities is unknown. I examined the isotopic niche dynamics of four common sympatric desert mice (three granivores: Chaetodipus formosus, Perognathus longimembris and Reithrodontomys megalotis, and one omnivore: Peromyscus maniculatus) in the Smoke Creek Desert of northwestern Nevada using ¹³ C and ¹⁵ N isotopes obtained from "Modern" (2008-2013 CE), "Historical" (1989-2005 CE) and Holocene fossil specimens spanning the last c. 7,500 years. I found significant variation in niche position, niche breadth and interspecific niche overlap of these species through time. The niche breadth dynamics of the cricetids (P. maniculatus and R. megalotis) were positively correlated with one another, while the niche breadth dynamics of the heteromyid C. formosus were negatively correlated with those of all other species. Body size, dietary functional group, palaeoenvironmental trends and time-averaging provided little explanatory power. Importantly, Modern and Historical patterns of resource use and partitioning differed from Holocene baselines in terms of decreased niche overlap and in the absolute and relative position of each species' niche in at least one isotopic axis. These observations suggest that each species' resource use changed individualistically over the Holocene, hence niche dynamics are poorly explained by the hypothesis of temporally stable species interactions at millennial time-scales. Furthermore, changes to the resource base over the last century (likely due to the spread of invasive cheatgrass) may be increasing resource partitioning in the Modern, pushing species past their baseline ranges of resource use variation.

Phylogenetic evidence from freshwater crayfishes that cave adaptation is not an evolutionary dead-end

Caves are perceived as isolated, extreme habitats with a uniquely specialized biota, which long ago led to the idea that caves are "evolutionary dead-ends." This implies that cave-adapted taxa may be doomed for extinction before they can diversify or transition to a more stable state. However, this hypothesis has not been explicitly tested in a phylogenetic framework with multiple independently evolved cave-dwelling groups. Here, we use the freshwater crayfish, a group with dozens of cave-dwelling species in multiple lineages, as a system to test this hypothesis. We consider historical patterns of lineage diversification and habitat transition as well as current patterns of geographic range size. We find that while cave-dwelling lineages have small relative range sizes and rarely transition back to the surface, they exhibit remarkably similar diversification patterns to those of other habitat types and appear to be able to maintain a diversity of lineages through time. This suggests that cave adaptation is not a "dead-end" for freshwater crayfish, which has positive implications for our understanding of biodiversity and conservation in cave habitats.