Identifying cryptic diversity with predictive phylogeography

Reduced representation approaches produce similar results to whole genome sequencing for some common phylogeographic analyses

When designing phylogeographic investigations researchers can choose to collect many different types of molecular markers, including mitochondrial genes or genomes, SNPs from reduced representation protocols, large sequence capture data sets, and even whole genomes. Given that the statistical power and accuracy of various analyses are expected to differ depending on both the type of marker and the amount of data collected, an exploration of the variance across methodological results as a function of marker type should provide valuable information to researchers. Here we collect mitochondrial Cytochrome b sequences, whole mitochondrial genomes, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)s isolated using a genotype by sequencing (GBS) protocol, sequences from ultraconserved elements, and low-coverage nuclear genomes from the North American water vole (Microtus richardsoni). We estimate genetic distances, population genetic structure, and historical demography using data from each of these datasets and compare the results across markers. As anticipated, the results exhibit differences across marker types, particularly in terms of the resolution offered by different analyses. A cost-benefit analysis indicates that SNPs collected using a GBS protocol are the most cost-effective molecular marker, with inferences that mirror those collected from the whole genome data at a fraction of the cost per sample.

Intra-island patterns of cryptic diversity within an oceanic island: Insights from the differentiation of Schizidium Verhoeff, 1901 (Oniscidea, Armadillidiidae) within Cyprus, with descriptions of two new species

Cyprus is a Mediterranean island of volcanic origin isolated for at least 5.3 Myr from surrounding continental areas. The present study focuses on the diversification of the isopod genus Schizidium within the island, including also specimens from surrounding continental areas. The genus Schizidium sensu lato is probably non monophyletic, comprising 26 species distributed from Greece to Iran. Up to date the only representative of the genus reported from Cyprus was Schizidium fissum. Aiming to investigate the patterns of genetic diversity within the focal island, to evaluate the morphology-based taxonomy of the species in the genus, and at the same time to explore phylogenetic relationships with mainland populations, we applied genome-wide ddRADseq as well as Sanger sequencing targeting three mitochondrial (16S, COI and 12S) and the nuclear NaK loci. Results of phylogenetic analyses support the existence of two distinct epigean Schizidium clades with well-defined geographic boundaries that conform to the known paleogeography of Cyprus, plus one endogean clade with restricted distribution within the island. Genetic data and morphology corroborate the assignment of this latter endogean clade to a new species, Schizidium myrrae n. sp. The two epigean clades are also considered as distinct species, one corresponding to the known S. fissum at the eastern part of the island (Pentadaktylos massif) and the other to the newly described S. christosi n. sp. distributed along the western part of the island (Troodos massif). Even though detailed examination of many specimens could not retrieve any morphological differences among representatives of these two clades, clado-chronological analysis indicates a long isolation between them, estimated at ∼ 9 Mya, as well as the sharing of a common ancestor with S. tiberianum from Israel at ∼ 15 Mya. Hence, we can consider these epigean Schizidium species as one more case of cryptic diversity on Cyprus, exhibiting similar patterns with the recently described case in the genus Armadillo.

Hybrid zone analysis confirms cryptic species of banded newt and does not support competitive displacement since secondary contact

When two putatively cryptic species meet in nature, hybrid zone analysis can be used to estimate the extent of gene flow between them. Two recently recognized cryptic species of banded newt (genus Ommatotriton) are suspected to meet in parapatry in Anatolia, but a formal hybrid zone analysis has never been conducted. We sample populations throughout the range, with a focus on the supposed contact zone, and genotype them for 31 nuclear DNA SNP markers and mtDNA. We determine the degree of genetic admixture, introgression, and niche overlap. We reveal an extremely narrow hybrid zone, suggesting strong selection against hybrids, in line with species status. The hybrid zone does not appear to be positioned at an ecological barrier, and there is significant niche overlap. Therefore, the hybrid zone is best classified as a tension zone, maintained by intrinsic selection against hybrids. While the two banded newt species can evidently backcross, we see negligible introgression and the pattern is symmetric, which we interpret as supporting the fact that the hybrid zone has been practically stationary since its origin (while extensive hybrid zone movement has been suggested in other newt genera in the region). Our study illustrates the use of hybrid zone analysis to test cryptic species status.

Environmentally driven phenotypic convergence and niche conservatism accompany speciation in hoary bats

Species that are geographically widespread may exist across environmentally heterogeneous landscapes that could influence patterns of occupation and phylogeographic structure. Previous studies have suggested that geographic range size should be positively correlated with niche breadth, allowing widespread species to sustain viable populations over diverse environmental gradients. We examined the congruence of phenotypic and phylogenetic divergence with the environmental factors that help maintain species level diversity in the geographically widespread hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus sensu lato) across their distribution. Genetic sequences were analyzed using multiple phylogenetic and species delimitation methods, and phenotypic data were analyzed using supervised and unsupervised machine learning approaches. Spatial data from environmental, geographic, and topographic features were analyzed in a multiple regression analysis to determine their relative effect on phenotypic diversity. Ecological niches of each hoary bat species were examined in environmental space to quantify niche overlap, equivalency, and the magnitude of niche differentiation. Phylogenetic and species delimitation analyses support existence of three geographically structured species of hoary bat, each of which is phenotypically distinct. However, the Hawaiian hoary bat is morphologically more similar to the South American species than to the North American species despite a closer phylogenetic relationship to the latter. Multiple regression and niche analyses revealed higher environmental similarities between the South American and Hawaiian species. Hoary bats thus exhibit a pattern of phenotypic variation that disagrees with well-supported genetic divergences, instead indicating phenotypic convergence driven by similar environmental features and relatively conserved niches occupied in tropical latitudes.

Why are some plant species missing from restorations? A diagnostic tool for temperate grassland ecosystems

The U.N. Decade on Ecosystem Restoration aims to accelerate actions to prevent, halt, and reverse the degradation of ecosystems, and re-establish ecosystem functioning and species diversity. The practice of ecological restoration has made great progress in recent decades, as has recognition of the importance of species diversity to maintaining the long-term stability and functioning of restored ecosystems. Restorations may also focus on specific species to fulfill needed functions, such as supporting dependent wildlife or mitigating extinction risk. Yet even in the most carefully planned and managed restoration, target species may fail to germinate, establish, or persist. To support the successful reintroduction of ecologically and culturally important plant species with an emphasis on temperate grasslands, we developed a tool to diagnose common causes of missing species, focusing on four major categories of filters, or factors: genetic, biotic, abiotic, and planning & land management. Through a review of the scientific literature, we propose a series of diagnostic tests to identify potential causes of failure to restore target species, and treatments that could improve future outcomes. This practical diagnostic tool is meant to strengthen collaboration between restoration practitioners and researchers on diagnosing and treating causes of missing species in order to effectively restore them.

The role of multiple Pleistocene refugia in promoting diversification in the Pacific Northwest

Pleistocene glacial cycles drastically changed the distributions of taxa endemic to temperate rainforests in the Pacific Northwest, with many experiencing reduced habitat suitability during glacial periods. In this study, we investigate whether glacial cycles promoted intraspecific divergence and whether subsequent range changes led to secondary contact and gene flow. For seven invertebrate species endemic to the PNW, we estimated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and projected them onto current and historical climate conditions to assess how habitat suitability changed during glacial cycles. Using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from these species, we assessed population genetic structure and used a machine-learning approach to compare models with and without gene flow between populations upon secondary contact after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Finally, we estimated divergence times and rates of gene flow between populations. SDMs suggest that there was less suitable habitat in the North Cascades and Northern Rocky Mountains during glacial compared to interglacial periods, resulting in reduced habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation during the LGM. Our genomic data identify population structure in all taxa, and support gene flow upon secondary contact in five of the seven taxa. Parameter estimates suggest that population divergences date to the later Pleistocene for most populations. Our results support a role of refugial dynamics in driving intraspecific divergence in the Cascades Range. In these invertebrates, population structure often does not correspond to current biogeographic or environmental barriers. Rather, population structure may reflect refugial lineages that have since expanded their ranges, often leading to secondary contact between once isolated lineages.

Giant tree frogs exemplify the promise of integrating multiple types of data in phylogeographic investigations

Hugall et al. (2022) is one of the seminal publications from the single locus era of phylogeographic research. These authors were among the first to argue that genetic data are ideally suited to test hypotheses that are ultimately derived from other sources of information. While the testing of predictions from the fossil record has long been important to molecular systematics (e.g., Donoghue et al., 1989), phylogeographic investigations into the more recent evolutionary past lack a fossil record in most focal taxa. In lieu of fossils, which were not available for the small snails that served as the focal taxon, Hugall et al. (2002) applied the (then) new technique of environmental modelling to identify regions within the species range with habitat that was predicted to be stable throughout the Holocene. They then present data that suggests that these regions correspond to the areas with high genetic diversity. Apart from the inferences about snail evolutionary history, the core argument of Hugall et al. (2002) is that consilience (i.e., agreement between inferences drawn from different sources of data) is an important goal for phylogeographic investigation. Consilience in the inferences drawn from independent types of data has a multiplicative effect; when present the researcher is likely to have more confidence in their inference than would be possible to have in an inference from any one source of data. The manuscript by Jaynes et al. (2022) is a splendid illustration of this principle.

Mitochondrial DNA and Population Genomics Reveal Additional Cryptic Diversity in the Green Salamander (Subgenus Castaneides) Species Complex

Cryptic species present particular challenges to biodiversity conservation, as true species diversity and distributional boundaries remain obscured. However, modern molecular tools have afforded unparalleled opportunities to elucidate cryptic species, define their distributions, and, ultimately, develop conservation interventions to extend their evolutionary trajectories into the future. The Green Salamander (Aneides aeneus) complex provides an evolutionary focal point and the Appalachian Highlands an ecological context for the exploration of cryptic speciation in an imperiled taxon. A recent study uncovered significant levels of genetic and genomic variation geographically structured across the Appalachian Highlands, including up to four lineages, one of which (A. caryaensis) was described therein. Here we extend the genetic and genomic examination of the Castaneides species complex by intensive sampling of additional populations along Cumberland Plateau and Appalachian Valley and Ridge of Alabama and Tennessee, employing both mtDNA and RADseq species delimitation approaches to delineate cryptic diversity and boundaries in this region. Analyses of two mitochondrial loci (nd4 and cytb) identified two reciprocally monophyletic lineages, which are also supported by population clustering and phylogenetic analyses of SNPs, that identified two population clusters with no evidence of gene flow. Our genetic and genomic results support the recognition of two additional cryptic lineages in the Castaneides species complex. Ultimately, this information is critical in developing successful adaptive management strategies for this important and endemic component of Appalachian Highland biodiversity.

Genomic evidence of an ancient Inland Temperate Rainforest in the Pacific Northwest of North America

The disjunct temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America (PNW) are characterized by late‐successional dominant tree species Thuja plicata (western redcedar) and Tsuga heterophylla (western hemlock). The demographic histories of these species, along with the PNW rainforest ecosystem in its entirety, have been heavily impacted by geological and climatic changes the PNW has experienced over the last 5 million years, including mountain orogeny and repeated Pleistocene glaciations. These environmental events have ultimately shaped the history of these species, with inland populations potentially being extirpated during the Pleistocene glaciations. Here, we collect genomic data for both species across their ranges to test multiple demographic models, each reflecting a different phylogeographical hypothesis on how the ecosystem‐dominating species may have responded to dramatic climatic change. Our results indicate that inland and coastal populations in both species diverged ~2.5 million years ago in the early Pleistocene and experienced decreases in population size during glacial cycles, with subsequent population expansion. Importantly, we found evidence for gene flow between coastal and inland populations during the mid‐Holocene. It is likely that intermittent migration in these species during this time has prevented allopatric speciation via genetic drift alone. In conclusion, our results from combining genomic data and demographic inference procedures establish that populations of the ecosystem dominants Thuja plicata and Tsuga heterophylla persisted in refugia located in both the coastal and inland regions of the PNW throughout the Pleistocene, with populations expanding and contracting in response to glacial cycles with occasional gene flow.

Evolutionary Genetics of Cacti: Research Biases, Advances and Prospects

Here, we present a review of the studies of evolutionary genetics (phylogenetics, population genetics, and phylogeography) using genetic data as well as genome scale assemblies in Cactaceae (Caryophyllales, Angiosperms), a major lineage of succulent plants with astonishing diversity on the American continent. To this end, we performed a literature survey (1992–2021) to obtain detailed information regarding key aspects of studies investigating cactus evolution. Specifically, we summarize the advances in the following aspects: molecular markers, species delimitation, phylogenetics, hybridization, biogeography, and genome assemblies. In brief, we observed substantial growth in the studies conducted with molecular markers in the past two decades. However, we found biases in taxonomic/geographic sampling and the use of traditional markers and statistical approaches. We discuss some methodological and social challenges for engaging the cactus community in genomic research. We also stressed the importance of integrative approaches, coalescent methods, and international collaboration to advance the understanding of cactus evolution.

Using natural history to guide supervised machine learning for cryptic species delimitation with genetic data

The diversity of biological and ecological characteristics of organisms, and the underlying genetic patterns and processes of speciation, makes the development of universally applicable genetic species delimitation methods challenging. Many approaches, like those incorporating the multispecies coalescent, sometimes delimit populations and overestimate species numbers. This issue is exacerbated in taxa with inherently high population structure due to low dispersal ability, and in cryptic species resulting from nonecological speciation. These taxa present a conundrum when delimiting species: analyses rely heavily, if not entirely, on genetic data which over split species, while other lines of evidence lump. We showcase this conundrum in the harvester Theromaster brunneus, a low dispersal taxon with a wide geographic distribution and high potential for cryptic species. Integrating morphology, mitochondrial, and sub-genomic (double-digest RADSeq and ultraconserved elements) data, we find high discordance across analyses and data types in the number of inferred species, with further evidence that multispecies coalescent approaches over split. We demonstrate the power of a supervised machine learning approach in effectively delimiting cryptic species by creating a "custom" training data set derived from a well-studied lineage with similar biological characteristics as Theromaster. This novel approach uses known taxa with particular biological characteristics to inform unknown taxa with similar characteristics, using modern computational tools ideally suited for species delimitation. The approach also considers the natural history of organisms to make more biologically informed species delimitation decisions, and in principle is broadly applicable for taxa across the tree of life.

Comparative and predictive phylogeography in the South American diagonal of open formations: Unravelling the biological and environmental influences on multitaxon demography

Phylogeography investigates historical drivers of the geographical distribution of intraspecific lineages. Particular attention has been given to ecological, climatic and geological processes in the diversification of the Neotropical biota. Several species sampled across the South American diagonal of open formations (DOF), comprising the Caatinga, Cerrado and Chaco biomes, experienced range shifts coincident with Quaternary climatic changes. However, comparative studies across different spatial, temporal and biological scales on DOF species are still meagre. Here, we combine phylogeographical model selection and machine learning predictive frameworks to investigate the influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on several plant and animal species from the DOF. We assembled mitochondrial/chloroplastic DNA sequences in public repositories and inferred the demographic responses of 44 species, comprising 70 intraspecific lineages of plants, lizards, frogs, spiders and insects. We then built a random forest model using biotic and abiotic information to identify the best predictors of demographic responses in the Pleistocene. Finally, we assessed the temporal synchrony of species demographic responses with hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation. Biotic variables related to population connectivity, gene flow and habitat preferences largely predicted how species responded to Pleistocene climatic changes, and demographic changes were synchronous primarily during the Middle Pleistocene. Although 22 (~31%) lineages underwent demographic expansion, presumably associated with the spread of aridity during the glacial Pleistocene periods, our findings suggest that nine lineages (~13%) exhibited the opposite response due to taxon-specific attributes.

The evolution of comparative phylogeography: putting the geography (and more) into comparative population genomics

Comparative population genomics is an ascendant field using genomic comparisons between species to draw inferences about forces regulating genetic variation. Comparative phylogeography, by contrast, focuses on the shared lineage histories of species codistributed geographically and is decidedly organismal in perspective. Comparative phylogeography is approximately 35 years old, and, by some metrics, is showing signs of reduced growth. Here, we contrast the goals and methods of comparative population genomics and comparative phylogeography and argue that comparative phylogeography offers an important perspective on evolutionary history that succeeds in integrating genomics with landscape evolution in ways that complement the suprageographic perspective of comparative population genomics. Focusing primarily on terrestrial vertebrates, we review the history of comparative phylogeography, its milestones and ongoing conceptual innovations, its increasingly global focus, and its status as a bridge between landscape genomics and the process of speciation. We also argue that, as a science with a strong “sense of place,” comparative phylogeography offers abundant “place-based” educational opportunities with its focus on geography and natural history, as well as opportunities for collaboration with local communities and indigenous peoples. Although comparative phylogeography does not yet require whole-genome sequencing for many of its goals, we conclude that it nonetheless plays an important role in grounding our interpretation of genetic variation in the fundamentals of geography and Earth history.

Delimiting cryptic species within the brown-banded bamboo shark, Chiloscyllium punctatum in the Indo-Australian region with mitochondrial DNA and genome-wide SNP approaches

Background

Delimiting cryptic species in elasmobranchs is a major challenge in modern taxonomy due the lack of available phenotypic features. Employing stand-alone genetics in splitting a cryptic species may prove problematic for further studies and for implementing conservation management. In this study, we examined mitochondrial DNA and genome-wide nuclear single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the brown-banded bambooshark, Chiloscyllium punctatum to evaluate potential cryptic species and the species-population boundary in the group.

Results

Both mtDNA and SNP analyses showed potential delimitation within C. punctatum from the Indo-Australian region and consisted of four operational taxonomic units (OTUs), i.e. those from Indo-Malay region, the west coast of Sumatra, Lesser Sunda region, and the Australian region. Each OTU can be interpreted differently depending on available supporting information, either based on biological, ecological or geographical data. We found that SNP data provided more robust results than mtDNA data in determining the boundary between population and cryptic species.

Conclusion

To split a cryptic species complex and erect new species based purely on the results of genetic analyses is not recommended. The designation of new species needs supportive diagnostic morphological characters that allow for species recognition, as an inability to recognise individuals in the field creates difficulties for future research, management for conservation and fisheries purposes. Moreover, we recommend that future studies use a comprehensive sampling regime that encompasses the full range of a species complex. This approach would increase the likelihood of identification of operational taxonomic units rather than resulting in an incorrect designation of new species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01852-3.

Evidence of cryptic diversity in freshwater Macrobrachium prawns from Indochinese riverine systems revealed by DNA barcode, species delimitation and phylogenetic approaches

The diversity of Indochinese prawns in genus Macrobrachium is enormous due to the habitat diversification and broad tributary networks of two river basins: the Chao Phraya and the Mekong. Despite long-standing interest in SE-Asian decapod diversity, the subregional Macrobrachium fauna is still not yet comprehensively clarified in terms of taxonomic identification or genetic diversification. In this study, integrative taxonomic approaches including morphological examination, DNA barcoding, and molecular species delimitation were used to emphasize the broad scale systematics of Macrobrachium prawns in Indochina. Twenty-seven nominal species were successfully re-verified by traditional and molecular taxonomy. Barcode gap analysis supported broad overlapping of species boundaries. Taxonomic ambiguity of several deposited samples in the public database is related to inter- and intraspecific genetic divergence as indicated by BOLD discordance. Diagnostic nucleotide positions were found in six Macrobrachium species. Eighteen additional putative lineages are herein assigned using the consensus of species delimitation methods. Genetic divergence indicates the possible existence of cryptic species in four morphologically complex and wide-ranging species: M. lanchesteri, M. niphanae, M. sintangense, and some members of the M. pilimanus group. The geographical distribution of some species supports the connections and barriers attributed to paleo-historical events of SE-Asian rivers and land masses. Results of this study show explicitly the importance of freshwater ecosystems in Indochinese subregions, especially for the Mekong River Basin due to its high genetic diversity and species composition found throughout its tributaries.

Genomic Resources for the North American Water Vole (Microtus richardsoni) and the Montane Vole (Microtus montanus)

Voles of the genus Microtus are important research organisms, yet genomic resources are lacking. Such resources would benefit future studies of immunology, phylogeography, cryptic diversity, and more. We sequenced and assembled nuclear genomes from two subspecies of water vole (Microtus richardsoni) and from the montane vole (Microtus montanus). The water vole genomes were sequenced with Illumina and 10× Chromium plus Illumina sequencing, resulting in assemblies with ∼1600,000 and ∼30,000 scaffolds, respectively. The montane vole was also assembled into ∼13,000 scaffolds using Illumina sequencing. Mitochondrial genome assemblies were also performed for both species. Structural and functional annotation for the best water vole nuclear genome resulted in ∼24,500 annotated genes, with 83% of these having functional annotations. Assembly quality statistics for our nuclear assemblies fall within the range of genomes previously published in the genus Microtus, making the water vole and montane vole genomes useful additions to currently available genomic resources.

Use of species delimitation approaches to tackle the cryptic diversity of an assemblage of high Andean butterflies (Lepidoptera: Papilionoidea)

Cryptic biological diversity has generated ambiguity in taxonomic and evolutionary studies. Single-locus methods and other approaches for species delimitation are useful for addressing this challenge, enabling the practical processing of large numbers of samples for identification and inventory purposes. This study analyzed an assemblage of high Andean butterflies using DNA barcoding and compared the identifications based on the current morphological taxonomy with three methods of species delimitation (automatic barcode gap discovery, generalized mixed Yule coalescent model, and Poisson tree processes). Sixteen potential cryptic species were recognized using these three methods, representing a net richness increase of 11.3% in the assemblage. A well-studied taxon of the genus Vanessa, which has a wide geographical distribution, appeared with the potential cryptic species that had a higher genetic differentiation at the local level than at the continental level. The analyses were useful for identifying the potential cryptic species in Pedaliodes and Forsterinaria complexes, which also show differentiation along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients. This genetic assessment of an entire assemblage of high Andean butterflies (Papilionoidea) provides baseline information for future research in a region characterized by high rates of endemism and population isolation.

Identifying genetic relationships among tarsier populations in the islands of Bunaken National Park and mainland Sulawesi

Eastern tarsiers (Tarsius tarsier complex) are small nocturnal primates endemic to Sulawesi Island and small adjacent islands of Indonesia. In 2004, the hybrid biogeography hypothesis predicted this species complex might contain 16 or more taxa, each corresponding to a region of endemism, based on: 1) geological evidence of the development of the archipelago, 2) biological evidence in the form of concordant distributions of monkeys and toads, and 3) the distribution of tarsier acoustic groups. Since then, 11 tarsier species have been recognized, potentially leaving more to be described. Efforts to identify these cryptic species are urgently needed so that habitat conversion, pet trade, and cultural activities will not render some species extinct before they are recognized. We gathered data to test the hypothesis of cryptic tarsier species on three volcanic islands in Bunaken National Park, North Sulawesi, namely Bunaken, Manadotua, and Mantehage, during May-August 2018. We sequenced individuals at 5 nuclear genes (ABCA1, ADORA3, AXIN1, RAG, and TTR) and made comparisons to existing genotypes at 14 mainland sites. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses revealed that island populations are genetically identical in all 5 genes, and formed a clade separated from the mainland ones. The eastern tarsiers first diverged from the western tarsiers approximately 2.5 MYA. The three island populations diverged from mainland tarsiers approximately 2,000-150,000 YA, due to either human activities or natural rafting. This study provides information for tarsier conservation, advances the understanding of biogeography of Sulawesi, and contributes to Indonesian awareness of biodiversity. Further quantitative genetics research on tarsiers, especially the island populations, will offer significant insights to establish more efficient and strategic tarsier conservation actions.

A demonstration of unsupervised machine learning in species delimitation

One major challenge to delimiting species with genetic data is successfully differentiating population structure from species-level divergence, an issue exacerbated in taxa inhabiting naturally fragmented habitats. Many fields of science are now using machine learning, and in evolutionary biology supervised machine learning has recently been used to infer species boundaries. These supervised methods require training data with associated labels. Conversely, unsupervised machine learning (UML) uses inherent data structure and does not require user-specified training labels, potentially providing more objectivity in species delimitation. In the context of integrative taxonomy, we demonstrate the utility of three UML approaches (random forests, variational autoencoders, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding) for species delimitation in an arachnid taxon with high population genetic structure (Opiliones, Laniatores, Metanonychus). We find that UML approaches successfully cluster samples according to species-level divergences and not high levels of population structure, while model-based validation methods severely over-split putative species. UML offers intuitive data visualization in two-dimensional space, the ability to accommodate various data types, and has potential in many areas of systematic and evolutionary biology. We argue that machine learning methods are ideally suited for species delimitation and may perform well in many natural systems and across taxa with diverse biological characteristics.

Complex interplay of ancient vicariance and recent patterns of geographical speciation in north-western North American temperate rainforests explains the phylogeny of jumping slugs (Hemphillia spp.)

The history of the currently disjunct temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest of North America has shaped the evolution and diversity of endemics. This study focuses on how geological and climatic perturbations have driven speciation in the area by isolating lineages. We investigated the phylogenetic relationships and historical biogeography of the endemic jumping slugs (genus Hemphillia) using a multi-locus phylogeny. We evaluated the spatial distribution and divergence times of major lineages, generated ancestral area probabilities and inferred the biogeographical history of the genus. Our study revealed eight genetic lineages that formed three clades: one clade consisting of two Coast/Cascade lineages, and two reciprocally monophyletic clades that each contain a Coast/Cascade and two Rocky Mountains taxa. The results of the biogeographical analysis suggest that the ancestral range of the genus occupied Coast/Cascade habitats and then spread across into Northern Rocky Mountain interior habitats with subsequent fragmentations isolating coastal and inland lineages. Finally, there have been more recent speciation events among three lineage pairs that have shaped shallow structures of all clades. We add to our knowledge of the biogeographical history of the region in that we discovered diversification and speciation events that have occurred in ways more complex than previously thought.

The role of glacial-interglacial climate change in shaping the genetic structure of eastern subterranean termites in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial-genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.

OPEN RESEARCH BADGES

This article has been awarded Open Materials, Open Data Badges. All materials and data are publicly accessible via the Open Science Framework at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5hr7f31.

Predicting plant conservation priorities on a global scale

The conservation status of most plant species is currently unknown, despite the fundamental role of plants in ecosystem health. To facilitate the costly process of conservation assessment, we developed a predictive protocol using a machine-learning approach to predict conservation status of over 150,000 land plant species. Our study uses open-source geographic, environmental, and morphological trait data, making this the largest assessment of conservation risk to date and the only global assessment for plants. Our results indicate that a large number of unassessed species are likely at risk and identify several geographic regions with the highest need of conservation efforts, many of which are not currently recognized as regions of global concern. By providing conservation-relevant predictions at multiple spatial and taxonomic scales, predictive frameworks such as the one developed here fill a pressing need for biodiversity science.

Cryptic diversity within grass-associated Abacarus species complex (Acariformes: Eriophyidae), with the description of a new species, Abacarus plumiger n. sp

Accurate estimation of species richness is often complex as genetic divergence is not always accompanied by appreciable morphological differentiation. In consequence, cryptic lineages or species evolve. Cryptic speciation is common especially in taxa characterized by small and simplified bodies, what makes their proper identification challenging. The cereal rust mite, Abacarus hystrix, was regarded for a long time as a species associated with a wide range of grass hosts, whereas wide host ranges are rather rare in eriophyoid mites. Therefore, the generalist status of A. hystrix was questioned. In this paper we demonstrate that the diversity within Abacarus species associated with grasses is more complex than it was previously thought. The 78 Abacarus mtDNA COI sequences used in this study formed 10 highly supported clades (bootstrap value 99%) and four more distinct genetic lineages were represented by unique sequences. The genetic distances between them ranged from 6.6 to 26.5%. Moreover, morphological study and genetic approach based on the combination of the Poisson Tree Processes model for species delimitation (PTP) and a Bayesian implementation of PTP (bPTP), and Neighbour Joining analyses led to delimitation of a new species within the Abacarus complex: Abacarus plumiger, specialized on smooth brome (Bromus inermis). Furthermore, our analyses demonstrated a pattern of host-associated differentiation within the complex. Overall, our study indicates that cryptic speciation occurs in the grass-associated Abacarus genus, and suggests the need for more extensive sampling using integrative methods.

A practical introduction to Random Forest for genetic association studies in ecology and evolution

Large genomic studies are becoming increasingly common with advances in sequencing technology, and our ability to understand how genomic variation influences phenotypic variation between individuals has never been greater. The exploration of such relationships first requires the identification of associations between molecular markers and phenotypes. Here, we explore the use of Random Forest (RF), a powerful machine-learning algorithm, in genomic studies to discern loci underlying both discrete and quantitative traits, particularly when studying wild or nonmodel organisms. RF is becoming increasingly used in ecological and population genetics because, unlike traditional methods, it can efficiently analyse thousands of loci simultaneously and account for nonadditive interactions. However, understanding both the power and limitations of Random Forest is important for its proper implementation and the interpretation of results. We therefore provide a practical introduction to the algorithm and its use for identifying associations between molecular markers and phenotypes, discussing such topics as data limitations, algorithm initiation and optimization, as well as interpretation. We also provide short R tutorials as examples, with the aim of providing a guide to the implementation of the algorithm. Topics discussed here are intended to serve as an entry point for molecular ecologists interested in employing Random Forest to identify trait associations in genomic data sets.

Combining allele frequency and tree-based approaches improves phylogeographic inference from natural history collections

Model selection approaches in phylogeography have allowed researchers to evaluate the support for competing demographic histories, which provides a mode of inference and a measure of uncertainty in understanding climatic and spatial influences on intraspecific diversity. Here, to rank all models in the comparison set and determine what proportion of the total support the top-ranked model garners, we conduct model selection using two analytical approaches-allele frequency-based, implemented in fastsimcoal2, and gene tree-based, implemented in phrapl. We then expand this model selection framework by including an assessment of absolute fit of the models to the data. For this, we utilize DNA isolated from existing natural history collections that span the distribution of red alder (Alnus rubra) in the Pacific Northwest of North America to generate genomic data for the evaluation of 13 demographic scenarios. The quality of DNA recovered from herbarium specimen leaf tissue was assessed for its utility and effectiveness in demographic model selection, specifically in the two approaches mentioned. We present strong support for the use of herbarium tissue in the generation of genomic DNA, albeit with the inclusion of additional quality control checks prior to library preparation and analyses with multiple approaches that incorporate various data. Analyses with allele frequency spectra and gene trees predominantly support A. rubra having experienced an ancient vicariance event with intermittent and frequent gene flow between the disjunct populations. Additionally, the data consistently fit the most frequently selected model, corroborating the model selection techniques. Finally, these results suggest that the A. rubra disjunct populations do not represent separate species.

Demographic model selection using random forests and the site frequency spectrum

Phylogeographic data sets have grown from tens to thousands of loci in recent years, but extant statistical methods do not take full advantage of these large data sets. For example, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a commonly used method for the explicit comparison of alternate demographic histories, but it is limited by the "curse of dimensionality" and issues related to the simulation and summarization of data when applied to next-generation sequencing (NGS) data sets. We implement here several improvements to overcome these difficulties. We use a Random Forest (RF) classifier for model selection to circumvent the curse of dimensionality and apply a binned representation of the multidimensional site frequency spectrum (mSFS) to address issues related to the simulation and summarization of large SNP data sets. We evaluate the performance of these improvements using simulation and find low overall error rates (~7%). We then apply the approach to data from Haplotrema vancouverense, a land snail endemic to the Pacific Northwest of North America. Fifteen demographic models were compared, and our results support a model of recent dispersal from coastal to inland rainforests. Our results demonstrate that binning is an effective strategy for the construction of a mSFS and imply that the statistical power of RF when applied to demographic model selection is at least comparable to traditional ABC algorithms. Importantly, by combining these strategies, large sets of models with differing numbers of populations can be evaluated.

The importance of naming cryptic species and the conservation of endemic subterranean amphipods

Molecular taxonomy often uncovers cryptic species, reminding us that taxonomic incompleteness is even more severe than previous thought. The importance of cryptic species for conservation is poorly understood. Although some cryptic species may be seriously threatened or otherwise important, they are rarely included in conservation programs as most of them remain undescribed. We analysed the importance of cryptic species in conservation by scrutinizing the South European cryptic complex of the subterranean amphipod Niphargus stygius sensu lato. Using uni- and multilocus delineation methods we show that it consists of 15 parapatric and sympatric species, which we describe using molecular diagnoses. The new species are not mere “taxonomic inflation” as they originate from several distinct branches within the genus and coexist with no evidence of lineage sharing. They are as evolutionarily distinct as average nominal species of the same genus. Ignoring these cryptic species will underestimate the number of subterranean endemics in Slovenia by 12 and in Croatia by four species, although alpha diversity of single caves remains unchanged. The new taxonomy renders national Red Lists largely obsolete, as they list mostly large-ranged species but omit critically endangered single-site endemics. Formal naming of cryptic species is critical for them to be included in conservation policies and faunal listings.