Climate change, biotic interactions and ecosystem services

Predicting emergent animal biodiversity patterns across multiple scales

Restoring biodiversity-based resilience and ecosystem multi-functionality needs to be informed by more accurate predictions of animal biodiversity responses to environmental change. Ecological models make a substantial contribution to this understanding, especially when they encode the biological mechanisms and processes that give rise to emergent patterns (population, community, ecosystem properties and dynamics). Here, a distinction between 'mechanistic' and 'process-based' ecological models is established to review existing approaches. Mechanistic and process-based ecological models have made key advances to understanding the structure, function and dynamics of animal biodiversity, but are typically designed to account for specific levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales. Cross-scale ecological models, which predict emergent co-occurring biodiversity patterns at interacting scales of space, time and biological organisation, is a critical next step in predictive ecology. A way forward is to first capitalise on existing models to systematically evaluate the ability of scale-explicit mechanisms and processes to predict emergent patterns at alternative scales. Such model intercomparisons will reveal mechanism to process transitions across fine to broad scales, overcome approach-specific barriers to model realism or tractability and identify gaps which necessitate the development of new fundamental principles. Key challenges surrounding model complexity and uncertainty would need to be addressed, and while opportunities from big data can streamline the integration of multiple scale-explicit biodiversity patterns, ambitious cross-scale field studies are also needed. Crucially, overcoming cross-scale ecological modelling challenges would unite disparate fields of ecology with the common goal of improving the evidence-base to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems under novel environmental change.

Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

A whole ecosystem approach to pear psyllid (Cacopsylla pyri) management in a changing climate

Whole ecosystem-based approaches are becoming increasingly common in pest management within agricultural systems. These strategies consider all trophic levels and abiotic processes within an ecosystem, including interactions between different factors. This review outlines a whole ecosystem approach to the integrated pest management of pear psyllid (Cacopsylla pyri Linnaeus) within pear (Pyrus communis L.) orchards, focusing on potential disruptions as a result of climate change. Pear psyllid is estimated to cost the UK pear industry £5 million per annum and has a significant economic impact on pear production globally. Pesticide resistance is well documented in psyllids, leading to many growers to rely on biological control using natural enemies during the summer months. In addition, multiple insecticides commonly used in pear psyllid control have been withdrawn from the UK and Europe, emphasising the need for alternative control methods. There is growing concern that climate change could alter trophic interactions and phenological events within agroecosystems. For example, warmer temperatures could lead to earlier pear flowering and pest emergence, as well as faster insect development rates and altered activity levels. If climate change impacts pear psyllid differently to natural enemies, then trophic mismatches could occur, impacting pest populations. This review aims to evaluate current strategies used in C. pyri management, discuss trophic interactions within this agroecosystem and highlight potential changes in the top-down and bottom-up control of C. pyri as a result of climate change. This review provides a recommended approach to pear psyllid management, identifies evidence gaps and outlines areas of future research.

Bottom-up rather than top-down mechanisms determine mesocarnivore interactions in Norway

Interactions among coexisting mesocarnivores can be influenced by different factors such as the presence of large carnivores, land-use, environmental productivity, or human disturbance. Disentangling the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down processes can be challenging, but it is important for biodiversity conservation and wildlife management. The aim of this study was to assess how the interactions among mesocarnivores (red fox Vulpes vulpes, badger Meles meles, and pine marten Martes martes) were affected by large carnivores (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx and wolf Canis lupus), land cover variables (proportion of agricultural land and primary productivity), and human disturbance, as well as how these top-down and bottom-up mechanisms were influenced by season. We analyzed 3 years (2018-2020) of camera trapping observations from Norway and used structural equation models to assess hypothesized networks of causal relationships. Our results showed that land cover variables were more strongly associated with mesocarnivore detection rates than large carnivores in Norway. This might be caused by a combination of low density of large carnivores in an unproductive ecosystem with strong seasonality. Additionally, detection rates of all mesocarnivores showed positive associations among each other, which were stronger in winter. The prevalence of positive interactions among predators might indicate a tendency to use the same areas and resources combined with weak interference competition. Alternatively, it might indicate some kind of facilitative relationship among species. Human disturbance had contrasting effects for different species, benefiting the larger mesocarnivores (red fox and badger) probably through food subsidization, but negatively affecting apex predators (wolf and lynx) and smaller mesocarnivores (pine marten). In a human-dominated world, this highlights the importance of including anthropogenic influences in the study of species interactions.

Novel ecological interactions alter physiological responses of range-extending tropical and local temperate fishes under ocean warming

Global warming facilitates species range-expansions, leading to novel biological interactions between local and range-expanding species. Little is still known of how such novel interactions modify the performance of interacting species or how these interactions might be altered under climate change. Here, we used an aquarium experiment to investigate the novel ecological interactions between a poleward range-extending coral reef damselfish ("tropical-vagrant") and a local temperate species ("temperate-local") collected from a climate warming hotspot in SE Australia. We measured the effect of novel interactions (isolated vs. paired fish species) on energy expenditure (activity levels, oxidative stress, and antioxidant responses), energy gain (feeding rates), and growth rates of both fish species under present-day (23 °C) and future ocean temperatures (26 °C). Short-term growth rates were faster in both species under novel interactions (paired species), regardless of elevated temperature. Compared to isolated species, activity level, feeding rate and oxidative stress level were also higher in the paired temperate fish but not in the paired tropical fish. The tropical fish showed an increased feeding rate and long-term growth under elevated temperature, irrespective of novel interactions. We conclude that novel ecological interactions under climate change can be an important driver of physiological traits in sympatric tropical and temperate fishes and can mediate critical physiological performance of fishes under ocean warming.

Natural Vector of Avian Haemoproteus asymmetricus Parasite and Factors Altering the Spread of Infection

Avian haemosporidians (Apicomplexa, Haemosporida) are widespread blood protists, often causing severe haemosporidiosis, pathology, or even mortality in their hosts. Migrant birds regularly bring various haemosporidian parasites from wintering grounds to European breeding areas. Some haemosporidian parasites are prevalent in breeding sites and complete their life cycles in temperate climate zones and can be transmitted, but others do not. The factors altering the spread of these haemosporidians are not fully understood. Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) play an important role in the transmission of worldwide distributed avian haemosporidian parasites belonging to the genus Haemoproteus, but this information is particularly scarce and insufficient. The key factors limiting the spread of these pathogens in temperate climate zones, which we suspect and aim to study, are the absence of susceptible vectors and the ecological isolation of birds from vectors during the breeding period when transmission occurs. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate how the habitats of biting midges and bird breeding sites influence parasite transmission while also seeking to expand our understanding of the natural vectors for these parasites. Biting midges were collected using UV traps on the Curonian Spit, Lithuania, in different habitats, such as woodland and reeds, from May to September. Parous Culicoides females were identified, dissected, and investigated for the presence of Haemoproteus parasites using both microscopy and PCR-based tools. Among the dissected 1135 parous Culicoides females, the sporozoites of Haemoproteus asymmetricus (genetic lineage hTUPHI01) have been detected for the first time in the salivary glands of Culicoides festivipennis. The sporozoites of four Haemoproteus lineages were detected in Culicoides segnis, C. festivipennis, and Culicoides kibunensis biting midges. PCR-based screening showed that the females of seven Culicoides species were naturally infected with Haemoproteus parasites. The DNA of the parasite of owls, Haemoproteus syrnii (hSTAL2), was detected for the first time in Culicoides punctatus. The highest abundance of collected Culicoides females was in June, but the highest prevalence of Haemoproteus parasites in biting midges was in July. The abundance of Culicoides was higher in the woodland compared with reeds during the season. The acquired findings indicate the varied abundance and diversity of biting midges throughout the season and across distinct habitats. This variability could potentially impact the transmission of Haemoproteus parasites among birds with diverse breeding site ecologies. These outcomes hold the potential to enhance our understanding of the epizootiology of Haemoproteus infections within temperate climatic zones.

Sexes in sync: phenotypic plasticity, sexual selection and phenological synchrony between the sexes in a wild hibernator

Desynchrony of phenological responses to climate change is a major concern for ecological communities. Potential uncoupling between one of the most fundamental divisions within populations, males and females, has not been well studied. To address this gap, we examined sex-specific plasticity in hibernation phenology in two populations of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus). We find that both sexes display similar phenological plasticity to spring snowmelt dates in their timing of torpor termination and behavioural emergence from hibernation. As a result of this plasticity, the degree of protandry (i.e. males' emergences from hibernation preceding those of females) did not change significantly over the 27-year study. Earlier male behavioural emergence, relative to females, improved the likelihood of securing a breeding territory and increased annual reproductive success. Sexual selection favouring earlier male emergence from hibernation may maintain protandry in this population, but did not contribute to further advances in male phenology. Together, our results provide evidence that the sexes should remain synchronized, at least in response to the weather variation investigated here, and further support the role of sexual selection in the evolution of protandry in sexually reproducing organisms.

High correlations between plant clonality and ecosystem service functions after management in a chronosequence of evergreen conifer plantations

Introduction

Climate change and mono-afforestation or mono-reforestation have continuously caused a decline in biodiversity and ecosystem services on forest plantations. Key plant functional traits in forests or plantations may affect ecosystem functions after forest management practices. Plant clonality, a key functional trait, frequently links to biodiversity and ecosystem functions and affects the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. However, little is known about how plant clonality affects ecosystem functions and services of plantations after forest management.

Methods

We conducted a field experiment to discuss the diversity and proportion of clonal plants, plant diversity of the communities, and ecosystem service functions and their relationships under 10 years of close-to-nature (CTN) management, artificial gap management, and control (i.e., without management) in the three stages of C. Lanceolata plantations.

Results

Our results showed that CTN and gap management modes significantly facilitated diversity of clonal plants, plant diversity of the communities, and parameters of ecosystem service functions in C. lanceolata plantations. Moreover, CTN management promoted plant community diversity, soil water conservation, and carbon storage the most in the earlier stand stages. Diversity of clonal plants was significantly positively correlated with ecosystem service functions after forest management. Structural equation modeling analysis indicated that forest gap or CTN management indirectly positively affected ecosystem service functions through increasing diversity of clonal woody plants and plant diversity of the communities.

Conclusion

Our results indicate a highly positive effect of gap or CTN management on diversity and proportion of clonal plants and on plant diversity of the communities, which link to improvements in ecosystem service functions (i.e., water and soil conservation and carbon storage). The link between forest management, diversity, and ecosystem functions suggests that key functional traits or plant functional groups should be considered to underline the mechanism of traits-ecosystem functioning relationships and the restoration of degraded plantations.

Colonial morphology weakens the response of different inorganic carbon uptake systems to CO2 levels in Microcystis population

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration negatively impacts aquatic ecosystems and may induce evolutionary changes in the CO2-concentrating mechanism (CCM) of cyanobacteria. As the most notorious freshwater cyanobacteria, Microcystis strains have high phenotypic plasticity to form colonies and blooms in lakes and reservoirs worldwide. However, phenotypic plasticity of Microcystis responses to elevated CO2 is still a major open question. Here, we studied how Microcystis strains with two genotype of inorganic carbon uptake systems, bicA and sbtA, and different colonial morphology response to 200 ppm, 400 ppm, and 800 ppm CO2 levels. The results revealed that sbtA genotypes showed significantly higher specific growth rates, Chl a concentration, and photosynthetic efficiency at 200 ppm CO2, whereas higher specific growth rates, Chl a concentration, and photosynthetic efficiency were found in bicA genotype at 800 ppm CO2. The highest values of specific growth rates, Chl a concentration, Fv/Fm, and maximal net photosynthesis (Pm) were observed in unicellular morphology, followed by small colony and large colonial morphology at all CO2 levels. The values of K0.5 (DIC), K0.5 (CO2), and K0.5 (HCO3-) in the large colonials increased with rising CO2 levels, but these values significantly decreased in the unicellular and small colonials. ANOSIM analysis indicated that colonial morphology reduced significantly inter-group differences between bicA and sbtA genotypes at all CO2 treatments. These results suggest that colonial morphology of Microcystis can weakens the response of different inorganic carbon uptake systems to CO2 levels. Moreover, phenotypic and genotypic plasticity is likely to broaden strongly the fitness of Microcystis from rising atmospheric CO2.

Diversity of Anopheles species and zoonotic malaria vector of the Buton Utara Wildlife Sanctuary, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

The recent deforestation for agricultural, mining, and human re-settlement has significantly reduced the habitat of many non-human primates (NHPs) in Indonesia and intensifies interaction between the NHPs and humans and thus opening the possibility of pathogen spill-over. The emergence of zoonotic malaria, such as Plasmodium knowlesi, poses an immense threat to the current malaria control and elimination that aims for the global elimination of malaria by 2030. As malaria in humans and NHPs is transmitted by the female Anopheles mosquito, malaria vector control is very important to mitigate the spill-over of the malaria parasite to humans. The present study aims to explore the Anopheles species diversity in human settlements adjacent to the wildlife sanctuary forest in Buton Utara Regency, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, and identify the species that potentially transmit the pathogen from monkey to human in the area.

METHODS

Mosquito surveillance was conducted using larval and adult collection, and the collected mosquitoes were identified morphologically and molecularly using the barcoding markers, cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI), and internal transcribed species 2 (ITS2) genes. Plasmodium sporozoite carriage was conducted on mosquitoes collected through human landing catch (HLC) and human-baited double net trap (HDNT).

RESULTS

The results revealed several Anopheles species, such as Anopheles flavirostris (16.6%), Anopheles sulawesi (3.3%), Anopheles maculatus (3.3%), Anopheles koliensis (1.2%), and Anopheles vagus (0.4%). Molecular analysis of the sporozoite carriage using the primate-specific malaria primers identified An. sulawesi, a member of the Leucosphyrus group, carrying Plasmodium inui sporozoite.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that the transmission of zoonotic malaria in the area is possible and alerts to the need for mitigation efforts through a locally-tailored vector control intervention and NHPs habitat conservation.

Winner and losers: examining biotic interactions in forbs and grasses in response to changes in water and temperature in a semi-arid grassland

Warming and changing water amount can alter the outcome of biotic interactions in native and exotic plants between facilitation and competition. Exotic plants may adapt better to changing environmental conditions, such that they may compete better than native plants. We conducted competition trials for four plant species, two exotic forbs (Centaurea stoebe and Linaria vulgaris) and two grasses (exotic Poa compressa and native Pseudoroegneria spicata), commonly found in Southern interior British Columbia. We compared the effects of warming and changing water on target plant shoot and root biomass, and on pair-wise competitive interactions among all four species. We quantified interactions using the Relative Interaction Intensity index, which has values from -1 (complete competition) to +1 (complete facilitation). C. stoebe biomass was highest under low water and no competition. Facilitation of C. stoebe was found under high water and low temperatures but shifted to competition under low water and/or warming. Competition in L. vulgaris decreased due to reduced water and increased due to warming. Grasses were less competitively suppressed by warming but more competitively suppressed by reduced water input. The response of exotic plants to climate change can differ by plant species, moving in opposite directions for both forbs, but grasses appear to respond similarly. This has consequences for grasses and exotic plants in semi-arid grasslands.

Temperature, productivity, and habitat characteristics collectively drive lake food web structure

While many efforts have been devoted to understand variations in food web structure among terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the environmental factors influencing food web structure at large spatial scales remain hardly explored. Here, we compiled biodiversity inventories to infer food web structure of 67 French lakes using an allometric niche-based model and tested how environmental variables (temperature, productivity, and habitat) influence them. By applying a multivariate analysis on 20 metrics of food web topology, we found that food web structural variations are represented by two distinct complementary and independent structural descriptors. The first is related to the overall trophic diversity, whereas the second is related to the vertical structure. Interestingly, the trophic diversity descriptor was mostly explained by habitat size (26.7% of total deviance explained) and habitat complexity (20.1%) followed by productivity (dissolved organic carbon: 16.4%; nitrate: 9.1%) and thermal variations (10.7%). Regarding the vertical structure descriptor, it was mostly explained by water thermal seasonality (39.0% of total deviance explained) and habitat depth (31.9%) followed by habitat complexity (8.5%) and size (5.5%) as well as annual mean temperature (5.6%). Overall, we found that temperature, productivity, and habitat characteristics collectively shape lake food web structure. We also found that intermediate levels of productivity, high levels of temperature (mean and seasonality), as well as large habitats are associated with the largest and most complex food webs. Our findings, therefore, highlight the importance of focusing on these three components especially in the context of global change, as significant structural changes in aquatic food webs could be expected under increased temperature, pollution, and habitat alterations.

Admittance to Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres Points to Adverse Effects of Climate Change on Insectivorous Bats

Climate change is exerting a broad range of (mostly adverse) effects on biodiversity, and more are expected under future scenarios. Impacts on species that deliver key ecosystem services, such as bats, are especially concerning, so their better understanding is key to preventing or mitigating them. Due to their physiological requirements, bats are especially sensitive to environmental temperatures and water availability, and heatwave-related mortality has been reported for flying foxes and, more anecdotally, other bat species. For temperate regions, to date, no study has highlighted an association between temperature extremes and bat mortality, mostly due to the difficulty of relying on data series covering long timespans. Heatwaves may affect bats, causing thermal shock and acute dehydration so bats can fall from the roost and, in some cases, are rescued by the public and brought to wildlife rehabilitation centres (WRCs). In our work, we considered a dataset spanning over 20 years of bat admittance to Italian WRCs, covering 5842 bats, and hypothesised that in summer, the number of admitted bats will increase in hotter weeks and young bats will be more exposed to heat stress than adults. We confirmed our first hypothesis for both the overall sample and three out of five synurbic species for which data were available, whereas hot weeks affected both young and adults, pointing to an especially concerning effect on bat survival and reproduction. Although our study is correlative, the existence of a causative relationship between high temperatures and grounded bats is still the best explanation for the recorded patterns. We urge such a relationship to be explored via extensive monitoring of urban bat roosts to inform appropriate management of bat communities in such environments and preserve the precious ecosystem services such mammals provide, especially insectivory services.

Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations

Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities.

Bat-parasite interaction networks in urban green areas in northeastern Brazil

Interaction networks can provide detailed information regarding ecological systems, helping us understand how communities are organized and species are connected. The goals of this study were to identify the pattern of interaction between bats and ectoparasites in urban green areas of Grande Aracaju, Sergipe, and calculate connectance, specialization, nesting, modularity and centrality metrics. Bats were captured using 10 mist nets inside and on the edges of the fragments, and the collected ectoparasites were stored in 70% alcohol. All analyses were performed using R software. The interaction network consisted of 10 species of bats and 13 ectoparasites. Connectivity was considered low (0.12). The specialization indices for ectoparasites ranged from 0.50 to 1.00, and the value obtained for the network was 0.96, which is high. The observed nesting metric was low (wNODF = 1.47), whereas the modularity was high (wQ = 0.74), indicating that the studied network had a modular topology. All centrality metrics had low values. The observed modularity may have been caused by the evolutionary history of the bats and ectoparasites involved and the high specificity index of the interactions. The low centrality values may be associated with low connectivity and a high degree of specialization. This study provides relevant information on bat–parasite interactions in an urban environment, highlighting the need for further studies to improve our understanding of host–parasite interaction networks.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Morpho-physiological and demographic responses of three threatened Ilex species to changing climate aligned with species distribution models in future climate scenarios

The success of a species in future climate change scenarios depends on its morphological, physiological, and demographic adaptive responses to changing climate. The existence of threatened species against climate adversaries is constrained due to their small population size, narrow genetic base, and narrow niche breadth. We examined if ecological niche model (ENM)-based distribution predictions of species align with their morpho-physiological and demographic responses to future climate change scenarios. We studied three threatened Ilex species, viz., Ilex khasiana Purkay., I. venulosa Hook. f., and I. embelioides Hook. F, with restricted distribution in Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Demographic analysis of the natural populations of each species in Meghalaya, India revealed an upright pyramid suggesting a stable population under the present climate scenario. I. khasiana was confined to higher elevations only while I. venulosa and I. embelioides had wider altitudinal distribution ranges. The bio-climatic niche of I. khasiana was narrow, while the other two species had relatively broader niches. The ENM-predicted potential distribution areas under the current (2022) and future (2050) climatic scenarios (General Circulation Models (GCMs): IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) revealed that the distribution of highly suitable areas for the most climate-sensitive I. khasiana got drastically reduced. In I. venulosa and I. embelioides, there was an increase in highly suitable areas under the future scenarios. The eco-physiological studies showed marked variation among the species, sites, and treatments (p < 0.05), indicating the differential responses of the three species to varied climate scenarios, but followed a similar trend in species performance aligning with the model predictions.

Bird Communities in a Changing World: The Role of Interspecific Competition

Significant changes in the environment have the potential to affect bird species abundance and distribution, both directly, through a modification of the landscape, habitats, and climate, and indirectly, through a modification of biotic interactions such as competitive interactions. Predicting and mitigating the consequences of global change thus requires not only a sound understanding of the role played by biotic interactions in current ecosystems, but also the recognition and study of the complex and intricate effects that result from the perturbation of these ecosystems. In this review, we emphasize the role of interspecific competition in bird communities by focusing on three main predictions derived from theoretical and empirical considerations. We provide numerous examples of population decline and displacement that appeared to be, at least in part, driven by competition, and were amplified by environmental changes associated with human activities. Beyond a shift in relative species abundance, we show that interspecific competition may have a negative impact on species richness, ecosystem services, and endangered species. Despite these findings, we argue that, in general, the role played by interspecific competition in current communities remains poorly understood due to methodological issues and the complexity of natural communities. Predicting the consequences of global change in these communities is further complicated by uncertainty regarding future environmental conditions and the speed and efficacy of plastic and evolutionary responses to fast-changing environments. Possible directions of future research are highlighted.

A Review of Ground Source Heat Pump Application for Space Cooling in Southeast Asia

Ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems have been used worldwide in buildings because of their advantages of highly efficient performance in terms of energy and environment for space cooling and heating; however, cooling demand is predominant in tropical climates. This paper reviews of the GSHP systems applications in Southeast Asia; several applications of GSHP in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam have been addressed. Experiments were initiated in 2006 in Kamphaengphet; the latest experiment found in the Scopus searching tool is the GSHP simulation in Kuantan in 2019 using EnergyPlus using the ground loop design software. GSHP systems have the potential to be used in Southeast Asia despite the dominance of cooling demand, leading to a thermal imbalance within the subsurface. This imbalance can reduce the performance of the system; however, groundwater flow is considered as a key factor in preventing the effect of thermal distribution owing to GSHP operation. These results suggest that the GSHP has the potential to reduce emissions and electricity consumption within areas having tropical climates, such as Southeast Asia, for sustainability and future generation.

Stoichiometric constraints modulate temperature and nutrient effects on biomass distribution and community stability

Temperature and nutrients are two of the most important drivers of global change. Both can modify the elemental composition (i.e. stoichiometry) of primary producers and consumers. Yet their combined effect on the stoichiometry, dynamics and stability of ecological communities remains largely unexplored. To fill this gap, we extended the Rosenzweig-MacArthur consumer-resource model by including thermal dependencies, nutrient dynamics and stoichiometric constraints on both the primary producer and the consumer. We found that stoichiometric and nutrient conservation constraints dampen the paradox of enrichment and increased persistence at high nutrient levels. Nevertheless, stoichiometric constraints also reduced consumer persistence at extreme temperatures. Finally, we also found that stoichiometric constraints and nutrient dynamics can strongly influence biomass distribution across trophic levels by modulating consumer assimilation efficiency and resource growth rates along the environmental gradients. In the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, consumer biomass exceeded resource biomass for most parameter values whereas, in the stoichiometric model, consumer biomass was strongly reduced and sometimes lower than resource biomass. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for stoichiometric constraints as they can mediate the temperature and nutrient impact on the dynamics and functioning of ecological communities.

Microbial adaptation to different environmental conditions: molecular perspective of evolved genetic and cellular systems

Microorganisms are ubiquitous on Earth and can inhabit almost every environment. In a complex heterogeneous environment or in face of ecological disturbance, the microbes adjust to fluctuating environmental conditions through a cascade of cellular and molecular systems. Their habitats differ from cold microcosms of Antarctica to the geothermal volcanic areas, terrestrial to marine, highly alkaline zones to the extremely acidic areas and freshwater to brackish water sources. The diverse ecological microbial niches are attributed to the versatile, adaptable nature under fluctuating temperature, nutrient availability and pH of the microorganisms. These organisms have developed a series of mechanisms to face the environmental changes and thereby keep their role in mediate important ecosystem functions. The underlying mechanisms of adaptable microbial nature are thoroughly investigated at the cellular, genetic and molecular levels. The adaptation is mediated by a spectrum of processes like natural selection, genetic recombination, horizontal gene transfer, DNA damage repair and pleiotropy-like events. This review paper provides the fundamentals insight into the microbial adaptability besides highlighting the molecular network of microbial adaptation under different environmental conditions.

The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector

Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Microbial communities regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. However, predicting these responses is challenging because of complex interactions among processes at multiple levels of organization. Organismal traits that determine individual performance and ecological interactions are essential for scaling up environmental responses from individuals to ecosystems. We combine protist microcosm experiments and mathematical models to show that key traits-cell size, shape, and contents-each explain different aspects of species' demographic responses to changes in temperature. These differences in species' temperature responses have complex cascading effects across levels of organization-causing nonlinear shifts in total community respiration rates across temperatures via coordinated changes in community composition, equilibrium densities, and community-mean species mass in experimental protist communities that tightly match theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that traits explain variation in population growth, and together, these two factors scale up to influence community- and ecosystem-level processes across temperatures. Connecting the multilevel microbial processes that ultimately influence climate in this way will help refine predictions about complex ecosystem-climate feedbacks and the pace of climate change itself.

Phytoplankton biodiversity is more important for ecosystem functioning in highly variable thermal environments

The 21st century has seen an acceleration of anthropogenic climate change and biodiversity loss, with both stressors deemed to affect ecosystem functioning. However, we know little about the interactive effects of both stressors and in particular about the interaction of increased climatic variability and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning. This should be remedied because larger climatic variability is one of the main features of climate change. Here, we demonstrated that temperature fluctuations led to changes in the importance of biodiversity for ecosystem functioning. We used microcosm communities of different phytoplankton species richness and exposed them to a constant, mild, and severe temperature-fluctuating environment. Wider temperature fluctuations led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes, meaning that species loss had a stronger negative effect on ecosystem functioning in more fluctuating environments. For severe temperature fluctuations, the slope increased through time due to a decrease of the productivity of species-poor communities over time. We developed a theoretical competition model to better understand our experimental results and showed that larger differences in thermal tolerances across species led to steeper biodiversity-ecosystem functioning slopes. Species-rich communities maintained their ecosystem functioning with increased fluctuation as they contained species able to resist the thermally fluctuating environments, while this was on average not the case in species-poor communities. Our results highlight the importance of biodiversity for maintaining ecosystem functions and services in the context of increased climatic variability under climate change.

Theory of temperature-dependent consumer-resource interactions

Changes in temperature affect consumer-resource interactions, which underpin the functioning of ecosystems. However, existing studies report contrasting predictions regarding the impacts of warming on biological rates and community dynamics. To improve prediction accuracy and comparability, we develop an approach that combines sensitivity analysis and aggregate parameters. The former determines which biological parameters impact the community most strongly. The use of aggregate parameters (i.e., maximal energetic efficiency, ρ, and interaction strength, κ), that combine multiple biological parameters, increases explanatory power and reduces the complexity of theoretical analyses. We illustrate the approach using empirically derived thermal dependence curves of biological rates and applying it to consumer-resource biomass ratio and community stability. Based on our analyses, we generate four predictions: (1) resource growth rate regulates biomass distributions at mild temperatures, (2) interaction strength alone determines the thermal boundaries of the community, (3) warming destabilises dynamics at low and mild temperatures only and (4) interactions strength must decrease faster than maximal energetic efficiency for warming to stabilise dynamics. We argue for the potential benefits of directly working with the aggregate parameters to increase the accuracy of predictions on warming impacts on food webs and promote cross-system comparisons.

A hitchhiker guide to manta rays: Patterns of association between Mobula alfredi, M. birostris, their symbionts, and other fishes in the Maldives

Despite being among the largest and most charismatic species in the marine environment, considerable gaps remain in our understanding of the behavioural ecology of manta rays (Mobula alfredi, M. birostris). Manta rays are often sighted in association with an array of smaller hitchhiker fish species, which utilise their hosts as a sanctuary for shelter, protection, and the sustenance they provide. Species interactions, rather than the species at the individual level, determine the ecological processes that drive community dynamics, support biodiversity and ecosystem health. Thus, understanding the associations within marine communities is critical to implementing effective conservation and management. However, the underlying patterns between manta rays, their symbionts, and other hitchhiker species remain elusive. Here, we explore the spatial and temporal variation in hitchhiker presence with M. alfredi and M. birostris throughout the Maldives and investigate the factors which may influence association using generalised linear mixed effects models (GLMM). For the first time, associations between M. alfredi and M. birostris with hitchhiker species other than those belonging to the family Echeneidae are described. A variation in the species of hitchhiker associated with M. alfredi and M. birostris was identified, with sharksucker remora (Echeneis naucrates) and giant remora (Remora remora) being the most common, respectively. Spatiotemporal variation in the presence of manta rays was identified as a driver for the occurrence of ephemeral hitchhiker associations. Near-term pregnant female M. alfredi, and M. alfredi at cleaning stations, had the highest likelihood of an association with adult E. naucrates. Juvenile E. naucrates were more likely to be associated with juvenile M. alfredi, and a seasonal trend in E. naucrates host association was identified. Remora were most likely to be present with female M. birostris, and a mean number of 1.5 ± 0.5 R. remora were observed per M. birostris. It is hoped these initial findings will serve as the basis for future work into the complex relationships between manta rays and their hitchhikers.

Temperature Responses of Heterotrophic Bacteria in Co-culture With a Red Sea Synechococcus Strain

Interactions between autotrophic and heterotrophic bacteria are fundamental for marine biogeochemical cycling. How global warming will affect the dynamics of these essential microbial players is not fully understood. The aims of this study were to identify the major groups of heterotrophic bacteria present in a Synechococcus culture originally isolated from the Red Sea and assess their joint responses to experimental warming within the metabolic ecology framework. A co-culture of Synechococcus sp. RS9907 and their associated heterotrophic bacteria, after determining their taxonomic affiliation by 16S rRNA gene sequencing, was acclimated and maintained in the lab at different temperatures (24-34°C). The abundance and cellular properties of Synechococcus and the three dominant heterotrophic bacterial groups (pertaining to the genera Paracoccus, Marinobacter, and Muricauda) were monitored by flow cytometry. The activation energy of Synechococcus, which grew at 0.94-1.38 d-1, was very similar (0.34 ± 0.02 eV) to the value hypothesized by the metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) for autotrophs (0.32 eV), while the values of the three heterotrophic bacteria ranged from 0.16 to 1.15 eV and were negatively correlated with their corresponding specific growth rates (2.38-24.4 d-1). The corresponding carrying capacities did not always follow the inverse relationship with temperature predicted by MTE, nor did we observe a consistent response of bacterial cell size and temperature. Our results show that the responses to future ocean warming of autotrophic and heterotrophic bacteria in microbial consortia might not be well described by theoretical universal rules.

Temporal instability of lake charr phenotypes: Synchronicity of growth rates and morphology linked to environmental variables?

Pathways through which phenotypic variation among individuals arise can be complex. One assumption often made in relation to intraspecific diversity is that the stability or predictability of the environment will interact with expression of the underlying phenotypic variation. To address biological complexity below the species level, we investigated variability across years in morphology and annual growth increments between and within two sympatric lake charr Salvelinus namaycush ecotypes in Rush Lake, USA. A rapid phenotypic shift in body and head shape was found within a decade. The magnitude and direction of the observed phenotypic change were consistent in both ecotypes, which suggests similar pathways caused the variation over time. Over the same time period, annual growth increments declined for both lake charr ecotypes and corresponded with a consistent phenotypic shift of each ecotype. Despite ecotype-specific annual growth changes in response to winter conditions, the observed annual growth shift for both ecotypes was linked, to some degree, with variation in the environment. Particularly, a declining trend in regional cloud cover was associated with an increase of early-stage (ages 1-3) annual growth for lake charr of Rush Lake. Underlying mechanisms causing changes in growth rates and constrained morphological modulation are not fully understood. An improved knowledge of the biology hidden within the expression of phenotypic variation promises to clarify our understanding of temporal morphological diversity and instability.

Variation in upper thermal tolerance among 19 species from temperate wetlands

Communities usually possess a multitude of interconnected trophic interactions within food webs. Their regulation generally depends on a balance between bottom-up and top-down effects. However, if sensitivity to temperature varies among species, rising temperatures may change trophic interactions via direct and indirect effects. We examined the critical thermal maximum (CT_max) of 19 species from temperate wetlands (insect predators, amphibian larvae, zooplankton and amphipods) and determined if they vary in their sensitivity to warming temperatures. CT_max differed between the groups, with predatory insects having higher CT_max than amphibians (both herbivorous larval anurans and predatory larval salamanders), amphipods and zooplankton. In a scenario of global warming, these differences in thermal tolerance may affect top-down and bottom-up processes, particularly considering that insect predators are more likely to maintain or improve their performance at higher temperatures, which could lead to increased predation rates on the herbivores in the food web. Further studies are needed to understand how the energy flows through communities, how species' energy budgets may change and whether other physiological and behavioral responses (such as phenotypic plasticity and thermoregulation) can buffer or increase these changes in the top-down regulation of wetland food webs.

Uncovering patterns of freshwater positive interactions using meta-analysis: Identifying the roles of common participants, invasive species and environmental context

Positive interactions are sensitive to human activities, necessitating synthetic approaches to elucidate broad patterns and predict future changes if these interactions are altered or lost. General understanding of freshwater positive interactions has been far outpaced by knowledge of these important relationships in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We conducted a global meta-analysis to evaluate the magnitude of positive interactions across freshwater habitats. In 340 studies, we found substantial positive effects, with facilitators increasing beneficiaries by, on average, 81% across all taxa and response variables. Mollusks in particular were commonly studied as both facilitators and beneficiaries. Amphibians were one group benefiting the most from positive interactions, yet few studies investigated amphibians. Invasive facilitators had stronger positive effects on beneficiaries than non-invasive facilitators. We compared positive effects between high- and low-stress conditions and found no difference in the magnitude of benefit in the subset of studies that manipulated stressors. Future areas of research include understudied facilitators and beneficiaries, the stress gradient hypothesis, patterns across space or time and the influence of declining taxa whose elimination would jeopardise fragile positive interaction networks. Freshwater positive interactions occur among a wide range of taxa, influence populations, communities and ecosystem processes and deserve further exploration.

The role of connectivity in the interplay between climate change and the spread of alien fish in a large Mediterranean river

Understanding how global change and connectivity will jointly modify the distribution of riverine species is crucial for conservation biology and environmental management. However, little is known about the interaction between climate change and fragmentation and how movement barriers might impede native species from adjusting their distributions versus limit the further spread of alien species. In this study, we modelled the current and future distributions of 11 native and five alien fishes in the large and heavily fragmented Ebro River, located within the Mediterranean region, which has many freshwater endemics severely threatened by global change. We considered 10 climate change models and five modelling algorithms and assessed the effects of connectivity on the accessibility of future suitable habitats. Thereby, we identify most conflict-prone river reaches, that is, where barriers pose a particular trade-off between isolating and negatively impacting native species versus potentially reducing the risk of alien species spread. Our results projected upstream habitat shifts for the vast majority of the species. Climate change affected species differently, with alien species generally showing larger habitat gains compared to natives. Most pronounced distributional changes (i.e. losses of native species and gains of alien species) and compositional turnover might be expected in the lower and mid reaches of large tributaries of the Ebro River. The role of anthropogenic barriers in this context is often ambiguous but rather unfavourable, as they not only restrict native fishes but also alter stream habitats and flow conditions. However, with our spatial modelling framework, we could identify specific river reaches where the connectivity trade-off in the context of climate change is particularly relevant. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of the complex effects that climate change, riverine connectivity and alien species are expected to impose on river communities and the urgent need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Microplastic exposure interacts with habitat degradation to affect behaviour and survival of juvenile fish in the field

Coral reefs are degrading globally due to increased environmental stressors including warming and elevated levels of pollutants. These stressors affect not only habitat-forming organisms, such as corals, but they may also directly affect the organisms that inhabit these ecosystems. Here, we explore how the dual threat of habitat degradation and microplastic exposure may affect the behaviour and survival of coral reef fish in the field. Fish were caught prior to settlement and pulse-fed polystyrene microplastics six times over 4 days, then placed in the field on live or dead-degraded coral patches. Exposure to microplastics or dead coral led fish to be bolder, more active and stray further from shelter compared to control fish. Effect sizes indicated that plastic exposure had a greater effect on behaviour than degraded habitat, and we found no evidence of synergistic effects. This pattern was also displayed in their survival in the field. Our results highlight that attaining low concentrations of microplastic in the environment will be a useful management strategy, since minimizing microplastic intake by fishes may work concurrently with reef restoration strategies to enhance the resilience of coral reef populations.

Explicit integration of dispersal-related metrics improves predictions of SDM in predatory arthropods

Fishing spiders (Dolomedes spp.) make an interesting model to predict the impact of global changes because they are generalist, opportunistic predators, whose distribution is driven mostly by abiotic factors. Yet, the two European species are expected to react differently to forthcoming environmental changes, because of habitat specialization and initial range. We used an original combination of habitat and dispersal data to revisit these predictions under various climatic scenarios. We used the future range of suitable habitat, predicted with habitat variables only, as a base layer to further predict the range or reachable habitat by accounting for both dispersal ability and landscape connectivity. Our results confirm the northward shift in range and indicate that the area of co-occurrences should also increase. However, reachable habitat should expand less than suitable habitat, especially when accounting for landscape connectivity. In addition, the potential range expansion was further limited for the red-listed D. plantarius, which is more of a habitat specialist and has a lower ability to disperse. This study highlights the importance of looking beyond habitat variables to produce more accurate predictions for the future of arthropods populations.

Resource supply governs the apparent temperature dependence of animal production in stream ecosystems

Rising global temperatures are changing how energy and materials move through ecosystems, with potential consequences for the role of animals in these processes. We tested a central prediction of the metabolic scaling framework-the temperature independence of animal community production-using a series of geothermally heated streams and a comprehensive empirical analysis. We show that the apparent temperature sensitivity of animal production was consistent with theory for individuals (Ep_ind  = 0.64 vs. 0.65 eV), but strongly amplified relative to theoretical expectations for communities, both among (Ep_among  = 0.67 vs. 0 eV) and within (Ep_within  = 1.52 vs. 0 eV) streams. After accounting for spatial and temporal variation in resources, we show that the apparent positive effect of temperature was driven by resource supply, providing strong empirical support for the temperature independence of invertebrate production and the necessary inclusion of resources in metabolic scaling efforts.

Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an Arctic food web

Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co-occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014-2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait-based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range-shifting species on food webs.

Changes in the Trophic Pathways within the Microbial Food Web in the Global Warming Scenario: An Experimental Study in the Adriatic Sea

A recent analysis of the Mediterranean Sea surface temperature showed significant annual warming. Since small picoplankton microorganisms play an important role in all major biogeochemical cycles, fluxes and processes occurring in marine systems (the changes at the base of the food web) as a response to human-induced temperature increase, could be amplified through the trophic chains and could also significantly affect different aspects of the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In this study, manipulative laboratory growth/grazing experiments were performed under in situ simulated conditions to study the structural and functional changes within the microbial food web after a 3 °C increase in temperature. The results show that a rise in temperature affects the changes in: (1) the growth and grazing rates of picoplankton, (2) their growth efficiency, (3) carrying capacities, (4) sensitivity of their production and grazing mortality to temperature, (5) satisfying protistan grazer carbon demands, (6) their preference in the selection of prey, (7) predator niche breadth and their overlap, (8) apparent uptake rates of nutrients, and (9) carbon biomass flow through the microbial food web. Furthermore, temperature affects the autotrophic and heterotrophic components of picoplankton in different ways.

Equivocal Evidence for Colony Level Stress Effects on Bumble Bee Pollination Services

Climate change poses a threat to global food security with extreme heat events causing drought and direct damage to crop plants. However, by altering behavioural or physiological responses of insects, extreme heat events may also affect pollination services on which many crops are dependent. Such effects may potentially be exacerbated by other environmental stresses, such as exposure to widely used agro-chemicals. To determine whether environmental stressors interact to affect pollination services, we carried out field cage experiments on the buff-tailed bumble bee (Bombus terrestris). Using a Bayesian approach, we assessed whether heat stress (colonies maintained at an ambient temperature of 25 °C or 31 °C) and insecticide exposure (5 ng g-1 of the neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin) could induce behavioural changes that affected pollination of faba bean (Vicia faba). Only the bumble bee colonies and not the plants were exposed to the environmental stress treatments. Bean plants exposed to heat-stressed bumble bee colonies (31 °C) had a lower proportional pod set compared to colonies maintained at 25 °C. There was also weak evidence that heat stressed colonies caused lower total bean weight. Bee exposure to clothianidin was found to have no clear effect on plant yields, either individually or as part of an interaction. We identified no effect of either colony stressor on bumble bee foraging behaviours. Our results suggest that extreme heat stress at the colony level may impact on pollination services. However, as the effect for other key yield parameters was weaker (e.g. bean yields), our results are not conclusive. Overall, our study highlights the need for further research on how environmental stress affects behavioural interactions in plant-pollinator systems that could impact on crop yields.

Drought-induced Suppression of Female Fecundity in a Capital Breeder

Human-induced global climate change is exerting increasingly strong selective pressures on a myriad of fitness traits that affect organisms. These traits, in turn, are influenced by a variety of environmental parameters such as temperature and precipitation, particularly in ectothermic taxa such as amphibians and reptiles. Over the past several decades, severe and prolonged episodes of drought are becoming commonplace throughout North America. Documentation of responses to this environmental crisis, however, is often incomplete, particularly in cryptic species. Here, we investigated reproduction in a population of pitviper snakes (copperhead, Agkistrodon contortrix), a live-bearing capital breeder. This population experienced a severe drought from 2012 through 2016. We tested whether declines in number of progeny were linked to this drought. Decline in total number offspring was significant, but offspring length and mass were unaffected. Reproductive output was positively impacted by precipitation and negatively impacted by high temperatures. We hypothesized that severe declines of prey species (e.g., cicada, amphibians, and small mammals) reduced energy acquisition during drought, negatively impacting reproductive output of the snakes. Support for this view was found using the periodical cicada (Magicicada spp.) as a proxy for prey availability. Various climate simulations, including our own qualitative analysis, predict that drought events will continue unabated throughout the geographic distribution of copperheads which suggests that long-term monitoring of populations are needed to better understand geographic variation in drought resilience and cascading impacts of drought phenomena on ecosystem function.

Mitochondria, sex and variation in routine metabolic rate

Variation in the metabolic costs associated with organismal maintenance may play a key role in determining fitness, and thus these differences among individuals are likely to be subject to natural selection. Although the evolvability of maintenance metabolism depends on its underlying genetic architecture, relatively little is known about the nature of genetic variation that underlies this trait. To address this, we measured variation in routine metabolic rate (ṀO_{2 routine} ), an index of maintenance metabolism, within and among three populations of Atlantic killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus, including a population from a region of genetic admixture between two subspecies. Polygenic association tests among individuals from the admixed population identified 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were associated with ṀO_{2 routine} , and these SNPs accounted for 43% of interindividual variation in this trait. However, genetic associations with ṀO_{2 routine} involved different SNPs if females and males were analysed separately, and there was a sex-dependent effect of mitochondrial genotype on variation in routine metabolism. These results imply that there are sex-specific genetic mechanisms, and potential mitonuclear interactions, that underlie variation in ṀO_{2 routine} . Additionally, there was evidence for epistatic interactions between 17% of the possible pairs of trait-associated SNPs, suggesting that epistatic effects on ṀO_{2 routine} are common. These data demonstrate not only that phenotypic variation in this ecologically important trait has a polygenic basis with considerable epistasis among loci, but also that these underlying genetic mechanisms, and particularly the role of mitochondrial genotype, may be sex-specific.

The marine fish food web is globally connected

The productivity of marine ecosystems and the services they provide to humans are largely dependent on complex interactions between prey and predators. These are embedded in a diverse network of trophic interactions, resulting in a cascade of events following perturbations such as species extinction. The sheer scale of oceans, however, precludes the characterization of marine feeding networks through de novo sampling. This effort ought instead to rely on a combination of extensive data and inference. Here we investigate how the distribution of trophic interactions at the global scale shapes the marine fish food web structure. We hypothesize that the heterogeneous distribution of species ranges in biogeographic regions should concentrate interactions in the warmest areas and within species groups. We find that the inferred global metaweb of marine fish-that is, all possible potential feeding links between co-occurring species-is highly connected geographically with a low degree of spatial modularity. Metrics of network structure correlate with sea surface temperature and tend to peak towards the tropics. In contrast to open-water communities, coastal food webs have greater interaction redundancy, which may confer robustness to species extinction. Our results suggest that marine ecosystems are connected yet display some resistance to perturbations because of high robustness at most locations.

The effect of temperature increase on microbial carbon fluxes in the Adriatic Sea: an experimental approach

An assessment of the temperature increase effect on processes within the microbial food web provides a better insight into the carbon transfer and energy flow processes in marine environments in the global warming perspective. Modified laboratory dilution experiments that allow simultaneous estimates of protozoan grazing and viral lysis on picoplankton groups (bacteria, Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus and pico-eukaryotic algae) under in situ and 3°C above in situ temperatures were performed at seasonal scale. Picoplankton mortality due to grazing was generally higher than that caused by viral lysis, especially in the cold months. The largest part of HNF carbon demand was satisfied by grazing on bacteria throughout the year. Although ciliates satisfied their carbon demand predominantly through grazing on HNF and bacteria, the role of autotrophic picoplankton (APP) as their prey increased significantly in the cold months. Bacteria constituted the most important host for viruses throughout the year. However, during the warm months, APP groups were also significant hosts for viral infection. Under the warming condition the amount of picoplankton biomass transferred to protozoan grazers exceeded the lysed biomass, suggesting that global warming could further increase picoplankton carbon flow toward higher trophic levels in the Adriatic Sea.

Non-parametric estimation of the structural stability of non-equilibrium community dynamics

Environmental factors are important drivers of community dynamics. Yet, despite extensive research, it is still extremely challenging to predict the effect of environmental changes on the dynamics of ecological communities. Equilibrium- and model-based approaches have provided a theoretical framework with which to investigate this problem systematically. However, the applicability of this framework to empirical data has been limited because equilibrium dynamics of populations within communities are seldom observed in nature and exact equations for community dynamics are rarely known. To overcome these limitations, here we develop a data-driven non-parametric framework to estimate the tolerance of non-equilibrium community dynamics to environmental perturbations (that is, their structural stability). Following our approach, we show that in non-equilibrium systems, structural stability can vary significantly across time. As a case study, we investigate the structural stability of a rocky intertidal community with dynamics at the edge of chaos. The structural stability of the community as a whole exhibited a clear seasonal pattern, despite the persistent chaotic dynamics of individual populations. Importantly, we show that this seasonal pattern of structural stability is causally driven by sea temperature. Overall, our approach provides novel opportunities for estimating the tolerance of ecological communities to environmental changes within a non-parametric framework.