Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

Global floating kelp forests have limited protection despite intensifying marine heatwave threats

Kelp forests are one of the earth's most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081-2100) compared to contemporary (2001-2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals.

The influence of subtidal Laminaria canopies on local environmental conditions and the structure of understorey communities

Understanding the role of species interactions (e.g. competition and facilitation) in structuring communities is a fundamental goal of ecology. It is well established that large canopy-forming seaweeds (e.g. kelps and fucoids) exert a strong influence on community structure, by offering biogenic habitat, altering environmental conditions and interacting with other species. While many studies have manipulated the density of seaweeds to causatively examine their effects on the local environment and associated communities, they are biased towards certain regions and canopy-forming species. We conducted a manipulative experiment at two subtidal sites characterised by mixed Laminaria canopies, in southwest England, UK. Three treatments were established in multiple replicate circular plots (area of 7.1 m2): 0% kelp removal (i.e. unmanipulated control), 50% kelp removal (i.e. thinning), and 100% removal. Within each plot, temperature, light levels and sedimentation rates were monitored over 3 months, and after 5 months the density of juvenile kelp recruits, the biomass of understorey macroalgae and the abundance of recruiting fauna were quantified. We found kelp canopies had no impact on temperature or sedimentation rates but their removal led to marked increases in light availability, juvenile kelp recruitment and understorey macroalgal biomass. Overall, our study shows that physical disturbance to Laminaria canopies alters resource availability (i.e. light and space), leading to increased abundances of kelp recruits and understory algae. Significant reductions in kelp canopy density, driven by storm disturbance, harvesting or decreased water quality for example, would lead to shifts in community structure and ecological functioning.

Drivers of spatiotemporal variability in a marine foundation species

Marine foundation species are critical for the structure and functioning of ecosystems and constitute the pillar of trophic chains while also providing a variety of ecosystem services. In recent decades, many foundation species have declined in abundance, sometimes threatening their current geographical distribution. Kelps (Laminariales) are the primary foundation species in temperate coastal systems worldwide. Kelp ecosystems are notoriously variable, challenging the identification of key factors controlling their dynamics. Identification of these drivers is key to predicting the fate of kelp ecosystems under climatic change and to informing management and conservation decisions such as restoration. Here, we used in situ data from long-term monitoring programs across 1350 km of coast spanning multiple biogeographic regions in the state of California (USA) to identify the major regional drivers of density of two dominant canopy-forming kelp species and to elucidate the spatial and temporal scales over which they operate. We used generalized additive mixed models to identify the key drivers of density of two dominant kelp species (Nereocystis luetkeana and Macrocystis pyrifera) across four ecological regions of the state of California (north, central, southwest, and southeast) and for the past two decades (2004-2021). The dominant drivers of kelp density varied among regions and species but always included some combination of nitrate availability, wave energy and exposure, density of purple sea urchins, and temperature as the most important predictors. These variables explained 63% of the variability of bull kelp in the northern and central regions, and 45% and 51.4% of the variability in giant kelp for the central/southwest and southeast regions, respectively. These large-scale analyses infer that a combination of lower nutrient availability, changes in wave energy and exposure, and increases in temperature and purple sea urchin counts have contributed to the decline of kelp observed in the last decade. Understanding the drivers of kelp dynamics can be used to identify regional patterns of historical stability and periods of significant change, ultimately informing resource management and conservation decisions such as site selection for kelp protection and restoration.

Diversity and Distribution of Intertidal Cystoseira sensu lato Species Across Protection Zones in a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area

This study investigates the diversity and distribution of intertidal Cystoseira sensu lato (s.l.) species across different protection zones within the "Capo Gallo-Isola delle Femmine" Marine Protected Area (MPA) in the central Mediterranean Sea. Five Cystoseira s.l. species (Cystoseira compressa, C. foeniculacea, Ericaria amentacea, E. brachycarpa and E. crinita) were observed on the intertidal rocky shores, with varied abundances across the MPA's protection zones. Ericaria amentacea was the only species found in all zones, with a much higher cover percentage in the most protected area (zone A). However, its morpho-functional traits showed an inverse trend, with the largest thalli found in the moderately protected zone B and C. The remaining Cystoseira s.l. species were only found in zones B and C probably due to their wider area and greater habitat diversity compared to zone A. The presence of two non-indigenous species, Asparagopsis taxiformis and Caulerpa cylindracea, was observed exclusively in the less protected zones B and C. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between MPA protection levels and Cystoseira s.l. species conservation, with protection having, in some respects, a positive influence on selected Cystoseira s.l. species, indicating the importance of careful consideration in MPA design and management. Furthermore, this study provides a baseline for future monitoring of Cystoseira s.l. populations in light of ongoing environmental changes in the Mediterranean Sea.

Assessing climatic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of Cystoseira foeniculacea early-life stages

Early-life stages of canopy-forming macroalgae are critical for the maintenance of natural populations and the success of restoration actions. Unfortunately, the abiotic conditions and biotic interactions shaping the success of these stages have received less attention than the interactions shaping the success of adults. Here, we combined field and mesocosm experiments to explore the effects of temperature, herbivory, and canopy presence on the development of early-life stages of the brown seaweed Cystoseira foeniculacea. We assessed these effects by examining changes in recruit density and size. After recruiting zygotes under laboratory conditions, we conducted one laboratory and three field experiments. In the first field experiment, the density of recruits decreased over time in all rockpools and was negatively affected by rising temperatures and turf cover. Additionally, a marine heatwave (MHW; 11 days >25°C) was recorded in the donor pools, producing strong decay in the density of transplanted recruits and a significant reduction of the mature canopy. The second field experiment tested the survival of recruits based on their positioning within the canopy. We observed a higher density of recruits when placed at the edge or outside the canopy compared to recruits placed under the canopy. In the third field experiment, an herbivory-exclusion experiment, we show how density of recruits decreased in less than 48 h in noncaged treatments. In the laboratory, we conducted a thermotolerance experiment under controlled conditions, exposing the recruits to 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31°C for 7 weeks to assess thermal impacts on their survival and growth. Temperatures above the 25°C threshold reduced the density and size of the recruits. This study sheds light on the performance of the early-life stages of a Cystoseira spp. in Macaronesia, showing a low survival ratio against the current pressures even in the context of the potential refuge provided by the intertidal rockpools.

Kelp forests versus urchin barrens: a comparison of ecosystem functions and services provided by two alternative stable marine habitats

Kelp forests and urchin barrens are two stable states in rocky reef ecosystems, each providing unique ecosystem functions like habitat for marine species and primary production. While studies frequently show that kelp forests support higher levels of some ecosystem functions than urchin barren habitats, no research has yet compared average differences. To address this gap, we first conducted a meta-analysis of studies that directly compared the ecosystem functions, services and general attributes provided by each habitat. We also compiled individual studies on ecosystem properties from both habitats and qualitatively assessed the benefits provided. The meta-analysis included 388 observations from 55 studies across 14 countries. We found that kelp forests consistently delivered higher levels of ecosystem properties such as biodiversity, species richness, abalone abundance and sea urchin roe quality. Urchin barrens supported higher urchin density and crustose coralline algae cover. The qualitative review further supported these findings, showing that kelp forests ranked higher in 11 out of 15 ecosystem properties. These findings can help guide decisions on managing rocky reef habitats and demonstrate the benefits of preserving or expanding kelp forests.

Population genomic structure of the sea urchin Diadema africanum, a relevant species in the rocky reef systems across the Macaronesian archipelagos

The sea urchin Diadema africanum is a macro-herbivore found in the rocky reef systems of the West African region and Macaronesian archipelagos. Over several decades, high densities of this species have generated marine barrens in certain areas at the Canary Islands. In contrast, more recently, during the last few years, the species has suffered mass mortality events that continue to the present day. In this study, we used 9,109 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and a fragment of a mitochondrial gene to evaluate the species' population structure, effects of mass mortalities on its diversity, and potential local adaptation across the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Our research provides compelling evidence of low genomic diversity and homogeneity across the studied area for neutral markers, along with recent demographic fluctuations. The high connectivity among distant areas likely allows a rapid recovering of the populations from local mortality events. Interestingly, we also observed genomic sub-structure from 405 SNPs identified as candidate loci under selection for seawater temperature. The lack of divergence among distant sites and the low diversity found can be attributed to the species' divergence from a small ancestral genomic pool, followed by a contemporary demographic expansion, and ongoinggene flow.

From Individual Calcifiers to Ecosystem Dynamics: Ocean Acidification Effects on Urchins and Abalone

A central question in ecology is to what extent do trophic interactions govern the structure and function of communities? This question is becoming more pressing as trophic interactions shift with rapid climate change. Sea urchins and abalone are key invertebrates in the habitats where they reside. Sea urchins are critical members of exemplar trophic cascades in kelp forests due to their impact on kelp establishment and maintenance; yet their populations are controlled by predators, such as sea otters and sunflower sea stars. Abalone compete with urchins for macroalgal food resources and therefore can help regulate urchin populations in kelp forests. Given that both urchin tests and abalone shells used for predator defense are comprised of calcium carbonate, much research has been conducted on the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on these calcified structures. A growing body of literature has shown that urchin tests are less calcified and break with less force under OA conditions. Less is known about abalone, but their shells also appear to respond negatively to OA. Using kelp forest communities as exemplar ecosystems, we discuss the morphological, biomechanical, and physiological responses to OA in urchins and abalone and consider how these individual level responses scale to trophic interactions and ultimately whole ecosystem processes. Although the impacts of OA on the calcified structures used for defense have been well studied, calcified mechanisms for food consumption, such as the Aristotle's lantern of urchins, are much less understood. Thus, examining both the feeding and defense sides of trophic interactions would greatly improve our understanding of OA responses across individual to ecosystem scales. More generally, measurements of morphological, biomechanical, and physiological responses to OA can be made in individuals to help predict higher level ecological responses, which would greatly contribute to broader predictions of whole ecosystem responses to OA.

Large mammal behavioral defenses induced by the cues of human predation

Large mammals respond to human hunting via proactive and reactive responses, which can induce subsequent nonconsumptive effects (NCEs). Thus, there is evidence that large mammals exhibit considerable behavioral plasticity in response to human hunting risk. Currently, however, it is unclear which cues of human hunting large mammals may be responding to. We conducted a literature review to quantify the large mammal behavioral responses induced by the cues of human hunting. We detected 106 studies published between 1978 and 2022 of which 34 (32%) included at least one measure of cue, typically visual (n = 26 of 106, 25%) or auditory (n = 11 of 106, 10%). Space use (n = 37 of 106, 35%) and flight (n = 31 of 106, 29%) were the most common behavioral responses studied. Among the 34 studies that assessed at least one cue, six (18%) measured large mammal behavioral responses in relation to proxies of human hunting (e.g. hunting site or season). Only 14% (n = 15 of 106) of the studies quantified an NCE associated with an animal's response to human hunting. Moreover, the association between cues measured and antipredator behaviors is unclear due to a consistent lack of controls. Thus, while human hunting can shape animal populations via consumptive effects, the cues triggering these responses are poorly understood. There hence remains a need to link cues, responses, NCEs, and the dynamics of large mammal populations. Human activities can then be adjusted accordingly to prevent both overexploitation and unintended NCEs in animal populations.

Temporal variation in the structure, abundance, and composition of Laminaria hyperborea forests and their associated understorey assemblages over an intense storm season

Kelp species function as important foundation organisms in coastal marine ecosystems where they provide biogenic habitat and ameliorate environmental conditions, often facilitating the development of diverse understorey assemblages. The structure of kelp forests is influenced by a variety of environmental factors, changes in which can result in profound shifts in ecological structure and functioning. Intense storm-induced wave action in particular, can severely impact kelp forest ecosystems. Given that storms are anticipated to increase in frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical to understand their potential impacts on kelp forest ecosystems. During the 2021/22 northeast Atlantic storm season, the United Kingdom (UK) was subject to several intense storms, of which the first and most severe was Storm Arwen. Due to the unusual northerly wind direction, the greatest impacts of Storm Arwen were felt along the northeast coast of the UK where wind gusts exceeded 90 km/h, and inshore significant wave heights of 7.2 m and wave periods of 9.3 s were recorded. Here, we investigated temporal and spatial variation in the structure of L. hyperborea forests and associated understorey assemblages along the northeast coast of the UK over the 2021/22 storm season. We found significant changes in the cover, density, length, biomass, and age structure of L. hyperborea populations and the composition of understorey assemblages following the storm season, particularly at our most north facing site. We suggest continuous monitoring of these systems to further our understanding of temporal variation and potential recovery trajectories, alongside enhanced management to promote resilience to future perturbations.

Effects of extreme temperatures and recovery potential of Gongolaria barbata from a coastal lagoon in the northern Adriatic Sea: an ex situ approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Globally, rising seawater temperatures contribute to the regression of marine macroalgal forests. Along the Istrian coastline (northern Adriatic), an isolated population of Gongolaria barbata persists in a coastal lagoon, representing one of the last marine macroalgal forests in the region. Our objective was to examine the impact of extreme temperatures on the morphology and physiology of G. barbata and test its potential for recovery after simulating marine heatwave (MHW) conditions.

METHODS

We explored the occurrence of marine heatwaves in southern Istria, adjacent to the study area, in addition to extreme temperatures inside the area itself. Subsequently, we performed a thermotolerance experiment, consisting of a stress and recovery phase, in which we exposed G. barbata thalli to four extreme (28, 30, 32 and 34 °C) and one favourable (18 °C) temperature. We monitored morphological and physiological responses.

KEY RESULTS

Our findings indicate a significant rise in frequency, duration and intensity of MHWs over decades on the southern Istrian coast. Experimental results show that G. barbata demonstrates potential for both morphological and physiological recovery after exposure to temperatures as high as 32 °C. However, exposure to 34 °C led to thallus decay, with limited ability to regenerate.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that G. barbata has a remarkable resilience to long-term exposure to extreme temperatures ≤32 °C and suggest that short-term exposure to temperatures beyond this, as currently recorded inside the lagoon, do not notably affect the physiology or morphology of local G. barbata. With more MHWs expected in the future, such an adapted population might represent an important donor suitable for future restoration activities along the Istrian coast. These results emphasize the resilience of this unique population, but also warn of the vulnerability of marine macroalgal forests to rising seawater temperatures in rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Regime shifts in rocky intertidal communities associated with a marine heatwave and disease outbreak

Long-term, large-scale experimental studies provide critical information about how global change influences communities. When environmental changes are severe, they can trigger abrupt transitions from one community type to another leading to a regime shift. From 2014 to 2016, rocky intertidal habitats in the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced extreme temperatures during a multi-year marine heatwave (MHW) and sharp population declines of the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus due to sea star wasting disease (SSWD). Here we measured the community structure before, during and after the MHW onset and SSWD outbreak in a 15-year succession experiment conducted in a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem spanning 13 sites on four capes in Oregon and northern California, United States. Kelp abundance declined during the MHW due to extreme temperatures, while gooseneck barnacle and mussel abundances increased due to reduced predation pressure after the loss of Pisaster from SSWD. Using several methods, we detected regime shifts from substrate- or algae-dominated to invertebrate-dominated alternative states at two capes. After water temperatures cooled and Pisaster population densities recovered, community structure differed from pre-disturbance conditions, suggesting low resilience. Consequently, thermal stress and predator loss can result in regime shifts that fundamentally alter community structure even after restoration of baseline conditions.

Coralline barrens and benthic mega-invertebrates: An intimate connection

Despite considerable progress in understanding the transition from algal forests to coralline barrens, knowledge of coralline barren ecosystems in terms of community composition and functioning is still sparse and important gaps remain to be filled. Using a barren/forest patch system, we tested the hypothesis that the presence of coralline barren enhances the abundance and diversity of benthic mega-invertebrates. We also analysed trophic functional diversity through isotopic analyses of δ13C and δ15N. The distribution of benthic mega-invertebrates biomass differed markedly between coralline barren and algal forest, being more abundant and diverse in the barren state. Isotopic diversity metrics of the benthic mega-invertebrates assemblage indicated comparable trophic structure between the two states, although higher isotopic uniqueness in coralline barren was determined by sea urchins, especially A. lixula, and carnivorous starfish. We showed that in a patchy coralline barren/algal forest system, a more diversified benthic mega-invertebrates assemblage in the barren caused limited trophodynamic changes. This was possibly determined by the behaviour of some trophic groups such as filter feeders, deposit feeders and omnivores. Finally, our results evidence the close association between coralline barrens and benthic mega-invertebrates, contradicting the common view of coralline barrens as depauperate habitats with low diversity and productivity.

Understanding change in benthic marine systems

BACKGROUND

The unprecedented influence of human activities on natural ecosystems in the 21st century has resulted in increasingly frequent large-scale changes in ecological communities. This has heightened interest in understanding such changes and effective means to manage them. Accurate interpretation of state changes is challenging because of difficulties translating theory to empirical study, and most theory emphasizes systems near equilibrium, which may not be relevant in rapidly changing environments.

SCOPE

We review concepts of long-transient stages and phase shifts between stable community states, both smooth, continuous and discontinuous shifts, and the relationships among them. Three principal challenges emerge when applying these concepts. The first is how to interpret observed change in communities - distinguishing multiple stable states from long transients, or reversible shifts in the phase portrait of single attractor systems. The second is how to quantify the magnitudes of three sources of variability that cause switches between community states: (1) 'noise' in species' abundances, (2) 'wiggle' in system parameters and (3) trends in parameters that affect the topography of the basin of attraction. The third challenge is how variability of the system shapes evidence used to interpret community changes. We outline a novel approach using critical length scales to potentially address these challenges. These concepts are highlighted by a review of recent examples involving macroalgae as key players in marine benthic ecosystems.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world examples show three or more stable configurations of ecological communities may exist for a given set of parameters, and transient stages may persist for long periods necessitating their respective consideration. The characteristic length scale (CLS) is a useful metric that uniquely identifies a community 'basin of attraction', enabling phase shifts to be distinguished from long transients. Variabilities of CLSs and time series data may likewise provide proactive management measures to mitigate phase shifts and loss of ecosystem services. Continued challenges remain in distinguishing continuous from discontinuous phase shifts because their respective dynamics lack unique signatures.

Herbivorous sea urchins (Echinometra mathaei) support resilience on overfished and sedimented tropical reefs

Human impacts are dramatically changing ecological communities, motivating research on resilience. Tropical reefs are increasingly undergoing transitions to short algal turf, a successional community that mediates either recovery to coral by allowing recruitment or transitions to longer turf/macroalgae. Intense herbivory limits turf height; subsequently, overfishing erodes resilience of the desirable coral-dominated reef state. Increased sedimentation also erodes resilience through smothering and herbivory suppression. In spite of this critical role, most herbivory studies on tropical reefs focus on fishes, and the contribution of urchins remains under-studied. To test how different herbivory and sedimentation scenarios impact turf resilience, we experimentally simulated, in situ, four future overfishing scenarios derived from patterns of fish and urchin loss in other reef systems and two future sedimentation regimes. We found urchins were critical to short turf resilience, maintaining this state even with reduced fish herbivory and increased sediment. Further, urchins cleared sediment, facilitating fish herbivory. This study articulates the likelihood of increased reliance on urchins on impacted reefs in the Anthropocene.

Effects of harvesting and an invasive mussel on intertidal rocky shore communities based on historical and spatial comparisons

Intertidal rocky shores are the most accessible marine habitats and therefore heavily impacted by harvesting. In recent years, they have also been increasingly invaded by alien species, which compounds the effects of harvesting on rocky shore community composition and functioning. Recent survey data, combined with historical data from 1970, were used to assess temporal changes over the intervening period in rocky shore communities at two sites (Wireless Point and Wireless Island). Three kinds of changes emerged: (1) the appearance of alien species; (2) the effects of increased harvesting pressure; and (3) the direct and indirect effects of these changes on other species. A striking result was transformation of mid-shore zones on exposed shores by the appearance of the invasive Mediterranean mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis, and the indirect effects of this on the demography and vertical zonation patterns of the granular limpet Scutellastra granularis. Adult limpets have become excluded by the mussel, whereas juveniles find a secondary home on the shells of the mussel and their abundance has increased. To further disentangle the effects of harvesting from those of alien invasions, a spatial comparison was made between two currently unharvested no-take sites (Scarborough South and Scarborough North) and two regularly harvested sites (Kommetjie and Wireless Point). Harvesting has substantially depleted the granite limpet Cymbula granatina and Argenville's limpet Scutellastra argenvillei. This has led to the proliferation of opportunistic seaweeds, such as Ulva spp. The dual effects of alien invasive species and over-harvesting have major ecosystem effects but do not necessarily diminish biodiversity because the alternative habitats that have developed provide opportunities for colonisation by additional species.

Emergent Spatial Patterns Can Indicate Upcoming Regime Shifts in a Realistic Model of Coral Community

AbstractIncreased stress on coastal ecosystems, such as coral reefs, seagrasses, kelp forests, and other habitats, can make them shift toward degraded, often algae-dominated or barren communities. This has already occurred in many places around the world, calling for new approaches to identify where such regime shifts may be triggered. Theoretical work predicts that the spatial structure of habitat-forming species should exhibit changes prior to regime shifts, such as an increase in spatial autocorrelation. However, extending this theory to marine systems requires theoretical models connecting field-supported ecological mechanisms to data and spatial patterns at relevant scales. To do so, we built a spatially explicit model of subtropical coral communities based on experiments and long-term datasets from Rapa Nui (Easter Island, Chile), to test whether spatial indicators could signal upcoming regime shifts in coral communities. Spatial indicators anticipated degradation of coral communities following increases in frequency of bleaching events or coral mortality. However, they were generally unable to signal shifts that followed herbivore loss, a widespread and well-researched source of degradation, likely because herbivory, despite being critical for the maintenance of corals, had comparatively little effect on their self-organization. Informative trends were found under both equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions but were determined by the type of direct neighbor interactions between corals, which remain relatively poorly documented. These inconsistencies show that while this approach is promising, its application to marine systems will require detailed information about the type of stressor and filling current gaps in our knowledge of interactions at play in coral communities.

Achieving conservation and restoration outcomes through ecologically beneficial aquaculture

A range of conservation and restoration tools are needed to safeguard the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Aquaculture, the culturing of aquatic organisms, often contributes to the numerous stressors that aquatic ecosystems face, yet some aquaculture activities can also deliver ecological benefits. We reviewed the literature on aquaculture activities that may contribute to conservation and restoration outcomes, either by enhancing the persistence or recovery of one or more target species or by moving aquatic ecosystems toward a target state. We identified 12 ecologically beneficial outcomes achievable via aquaculture: species recovery, habitat restoration, habitat rehabilitation, habitat protection, bioremediation, assisted evolution, climate change mitigation, wild harvest replacement, coastal defense, removal of overabundant species, biological control, and ex situ conservation. This list may be expanded as new applications are discovered. Positive intentions do not guarantee positive ecological outcomes, so it is critical that potentially ecologically beneficial aquaculture activities be evaluated via clear and measurable indicators of success to reduce potential abuse by greenwashing. Unanimity on outcomes, indicators, and related terminology will bring the field of aquaculture-environment interactions into line with consensus standards in conservation and restoration ecology. Broad consensus will also aid the development of future certification schemes for ecologically beneficial aquaculture.

Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse

Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth's poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning 'incipient barrens' are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance.

Intensive sea urchin harvest rescales Paracentrotus lividus population structure and threatens self-sustenance

The harvest of the edible sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus is intensively practiced in some regions of the Western Mediterranean Sea. The removal of the largest individuals can determine an overall reduction in population size and a size class truncation that can lead to a drastic drop the self-sustenance. The aim of this study is to evaluate the variability of the population reproductive potential across 5 years in one of the main harvest hotspots of Sardinia (Western Mediterranean Sea). The breeding stock consists of commercial and under-commercial size individuals which were sampled on a monthly basis to estimate their GonadoSomatic Index (GSI) and the Individual Gamete Output (IGO). In addition, the reproductive potential of the population-Total Gamete Output (TGO)-was calculated across the 5-year period in relation with the variation of the density of the breeding stock. During the last year, the reproductive potential was also estimated in a well-conserved population of a nearby Marine Protected Area. No significant variability in GSI and IGO was found over the 5 years nor when compared with the ones of protected population in the last year. However, the intensive harvest drastically rescaled the population body-size: although density of the commercial size class remained low, density of the under-commercial size-class halved from the beginning to the end of the study. Accordingly, the proportional decrease of their gamete output contribution led to a 40% loss of the reproductive potential of the whole population in the 5-year period. Interestingly, despite the loss of reproductive potential due to the decrease of the breeding stock density, the average values of IGO slightly increased across the years leading to the highest Annual Gamete Output (AGO) during the fourth year of sampling. This positive pattern could suggest a mechanism of reproductive investments of the survivors in terms of gonad production rate or increase in spawning intensity. This work provides evidence of the direct effect of size-selective harvesting on the rapid loss of population self-sustenance. Furthermore, it lays new prospective for future research of the indirect effects of the rescaling population body-size in functional traits of the sea urchin P. lividus and that could become important for both, sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation management.

Alterations in sea urchin (Mesocentrotus nudus) microbiota and their potential contributions to host according to barren severity

Sea urchins are biotic factors driving the decline of kelp forests in marine ecosystems. However, few studies have analyzed the microbiota of surviving sea urchins in barren regions with scarce diet resources. Here, we analyzed the microbiota in the pharynx and gut of the sea urchin Mesocentrotus nudus located along the coast of an expanding barren region in South Korea. The ecological adaptation of genera in sea urchins was predicted using the neutral assembly model. The pharynx and gut microbiota were different, and microbes in the surrounding habitats dispersed more to the pharynx than to the gut. The gut microbiota in sea urchins is altered by barren severity and plays different roles in host energy metabolism. These findings help to understand the microbiota in sea urchins according to urchin barren and its contribution to the survival of sea urchins in severe barren regions with limited macroalgae.

Urchin grazing of kelp gametophytes in warming oceans

Sea urchins can cause extensive damage to kelp forests, and their overgrazing can create extensive barren areas, leading to a loss of biodiversity. Barrens may persist when the recruitment of kelp, which occurs through the microscopic haploid gametophyte stage, is suppressed. However, the ecology of kelp gametophytes is poorly understood, and here we investigate if grazing by juvenile urchins on kelp gametophytes can suppress kelp recruitment and if this is exacerbated by climate change. We compared grazing of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes by two species of juvenile urchins, the tropical Tripneustes gratilla and the temperate Centrostephanus rodgersii, at winter (19°C), summer (23°C), and ocean warming (26°C) temperatures for the low-latitude range edge of E. radiata, which is vulnerable to ocean warming. We examined the rate of recovery of gametophytes following grazing and determined whether they survived and formed sporophytes after ingestion by sea urchins. Both T. gratilla and C. rodgersii grazed E. radiata gametophytes, reducing their abundance compared to no grazing controls. Surprisingly, temperature did not influence grazing rates, but gametophytes did not recover from grazing in the ocean warming (26°C) treatment. Gametophytes survived ingestion by both species of sea urchin and formed sporophytes after ingestion by T. gratilla, but not C. rodgersii. These results suggest complex grazer-gametophyte interactions, in which both negative (reduced abundance and poor recovery with warming) and positive (facilitated recruitment) effects are possible. Small grazers may play a more important role in kelp ecosystem function than previously thought and should be considered in our understanding of alternate stable states.

Epilithic Bacterial Assemblages on Subtidal Rocky Reefs: Variation Among Alternative Habitats at Ambient and Enhanced Nutrient Levels

Temperate rocky reefs often support mosaics of alternative habitats such as macroalgal forests, algal turfs and sea urchin barrens. Although the composition of epilithic microbial biofilms (EMBs) is recognized as a major determinant of macroalgal recruitment, their role in regulating the stability of alternative habitats on temperate rocky reefs remains unexplored. On shallow rocky reefs of the Island of Capraia (NW Mediterranean), we compared EMB structure among canopy stands formed by the fucoid Ericaria brachycarpa, algal turfs, and urchin barrens under ambient versus experimentally enhanced nutrient levels. The three habitats shared a core microbial community consisting of 21.6 and 25.3% of total ASVs under ambient and enhanced nutrient conditions, respectively. Although Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria and Flavobacteriia were the most abundant classes across habitats, multivariate analyses at the ASV level showed marked differences in EMB composition among habitats. Enhancing nutrient level had no significant effect on EMBs, although it increased their similarity between macroalgal canopy and turf habitats. At both ambient and enriched nutrient levels, ASVs mostly belonging to Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were more abundant in EMBs from macroalgal canopies than barrens. In contrast, ASVs belonging to the phylum of Proteobacteria and, in particular, to the families of Rhodobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae at ambient nutrient levels and of Rhodobacteraceae and Bacteriovoracaceae at enhanced nutrient levels were more abundant in turf than canopy habitats. Our results show that primary surfaces from alternative habitats that form mosaics on shallow rocky reefs in oligotrophic areas host distinct microbial communities that are, to some extent, resistant to moderate nutrient enhancement. Understanding the role of EMBs in generating reinforcing feedback under different nutrient loading regimes appears crucial to advance our understanding of the mechanisms underpinning the stability of habitats alternative to macroalgal forests as well as their role in regulating reverse shifts.

The Potential for Alternative Stable States in Food Webs Depends on Feedback Mechanism and Trait Diversity

AbstractAlternative stable ecosystem states are possible under the same environmental conditions in models of two or three interacting species and an array of feedback loops. However, multispecies food webs might weaken the feedbacks loops that can create alternative stable states. To test how this potential depends on food web properties, we develop a many-species model where consumer Allee effects emerge from consumer-resource interactions. We evaluate the interactive effects of food web connectance, interspecific trait diversity, and two classes of feedbacks: specialized feedbacks, where consumption of individual resources declines at high resource abundance (e.g., from schooling or reaching size refugia), and aggregate feedbacks, where overall resource abundance reduces consumer recruitment (e.g., from resources enhancing competition or mortality experienced by recruits). We find that aggregate feedbacks maintain, and specialized feedbacks reduce, the potential for alternative states. Interspecific trait diversity decreases the prevalence of alternative stable states more for specialized than for aggregate feedbacks. Increasing food web connectance increases the potential for alternative stable states for aggregated feedbacks but decreases it for specialized feedbacks, where losing vulnerable consumers can cascade into food web collapses. Altogether, multispecies food webs can limit the set of processes that create alternative stable states and impede consumer recovery from disturbance.

Effects of basin-scale climate modes and upwelling on nearshore marine heatwaves and cold spells in the California Current

Marine heatwaves and cold spells (MHWs/MCSs) have been observed to be increasing globally in frequency and intensity based on satellite remote sensing and continue to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Despite this, there are limited in-situ based observational studies in the very shallow nearshore region, particularly in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS). We analyzed a unique dataset collected in shallow waters along central California spanning more than four decades (1978-2020) and assessed links with basin-scale climate modes [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (MEI)] and regional-scale wind-driven upwelling. We found no significant increase/decrease in MHW/MCS frequency, duration, or intensity over the last four decades, but did observe considerable interannual variability linked with basin-scale climate modes. Additionally, there was a decrease in both MHW/MCS occurrence during the upwelling season, and the initiation of individual MHWs/MCSs coincided with anomalous upwelling. Most notably, the co-occurrence of warm (cold) phases of the PDO and MEI with negative (positive) upwelling anomalies strongly enhanced the relative frequency of positive (negative) temperature anomalies and MHW (MCS) days. Collectively, both basin-scale variability and upwelling forcing play a key role in predicting extreme events and shaping nearshore resilience in EBUS.

The behavior of sympatric sea urchin species across an ecosystem state gradient

Background

In temperate macroalgal forests, sea urchins are considered as a keystone species due to their grazing ability. Given their potential to shape benthic communities, we monitored the habitat use by three sympatric sea urchin species and compared their behaviors in a vegetated habitat (VH) and an adjacent isoyake habitat (IH).

Methods

We monitored the environmental conditions and sea urchin density along deep and shallow transects of the VH and IH for over a year. The benthic rugosity at both sites were also surveyed. A mark-recapture experiment was conducted on the two most abundant sea urchins, Diadema setosum and Heliocidaris crassispina, to elucidate sea urchin movement patterns and group dynamics.

Results

We found that exposure to waves was highest at the VH while the IH was sheltered. The deep IH experienced the least amount of light due to high turbidity. Water temperature patterns were similar across sites. The VH benthic topography was more rugose compared to the smoother and silt-covered IH substate. Peak macroalgal bloom occurred three months earlier in IH, but macroalgae persisted longer at the shallow VH. Among the sympatric sea urchins, H. crassispina was most abundant at the shallow VH and was observed in pits and crevices. The most abundant across IH and in the deep VH was D. setosum, preferring either crevices or free-living, depending on hydrodynamic conditions. The least abundant species was D. savignyi, and most often observed in crevices. Small and medium sea urchins were most often observed at the IH site, whereas larger sea urchins were more likely observed at the VH. The mark-recapture study showed that D. setosum was found to displace further at the IH, and H. crassispina was more sedentary. Additionally, D. setosum was always observed in groups, whereas H. crassispina was always solitary.

Discussion

The behaviors of sympatric urchins, Diadema savignyi, D. setosum and H. crassispina, differed in response to changes in the benthic environment and physical conditions. Sea urchin displacement increased when rugosity and wave action were low. Habitat preference shifted to crevices in seasons with high wave action. In general, the mark-recapture experiment showed that sea urchins displaced further at night.

How far to build it before they come? Analyzing the use of the Field of Dreams hypothesis in bull kelp restoration

In restoration ecology, the Field of Dreams hypothesis posits that restoration efforts that create a suitable environment could lead to the eventual recovery of the remaining aspects of the ecosystem through natural processes. Natural processes following partial restoration has led to ecosystem recovery in both terrestrial and aquatic systems. However, understanding the efficacy of a "Field of Dreams" approach requires a comparison of different approaches to partial restoration in terms of spatial, temporal, and ecological scale with what would happen given more comprehensive restoration efforts. We explore the relative effect of partial restoration and ongoing recovery on restoration efficacy with a dynamical model based on temperate rocky reefs in Northern California. We analyze our model for both the ability and rate of bull kelp forest recovery under different restoration strategies. We compare the efficacy of a partial restoration approach with a more comprehensive restoration effort by exploring how kelp recovery likelihood and rate change with varying intensities of urchin removal and kelp outplanting over different time periods and spatial scales. We find that, in the case of bull kelp forests, setting more favorable initial conditions for kelp recovery by implementing both urchin harvesting and kelp outplanting at the start of the restoration project has a bigger impact on the kelp recovery rate than applying restoration efforts through a longer period of time. Therefore, partial restoration efforts, in terms of spatial and temporal scale, can be significantly more effective when applied across multiple ecological scales in terms of both the capacity and rate for achieving the target outcomes.

Variation in body size drives spatial and temporal variation in lobster-urchin interaction strength

How strongly predators and prey interact is both notoriously context dependent and difficult to measure. Yet across taxa, interaction strength is strongly related to predator size, prey size and prey density, suggesting that general cross-taxonomic relationships could be used to predict how strongly individual species interact. Here, we ask how accurately do general size-scaling relationships predict variation in interaction strength between specific species that vary in size and density across space and time? To address this question, we quantified the size and density dependence of the functional response of the California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus, foraging on a key ecosystem engineer, the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, in experimental mesocosms. Based on these results, we then estimated variation in lobster-urchin interaction strength across five sites and 9 years of observational data. Finally, we compared our experimental estimates to predictions based on general size-scaling relationships from the literature. Our results reveal that predator and prey body size has the greatest effect on interaction strength when prey abundance is high. Due to consistently high urchin densities in the field, our simulations suggest that body size-relative to density-accounted for up to 87% of the spatio-temporal variation in interaction strength. However, general size-scaling relationships failed to predict the magnitude of interactions between lobster and urchin; even the best prediction from the literature was, on average, an order of magnitude (+18.7×) different than our experimental predictions. Harvest and climate change are driving reductions in the average body size of many marine species. Anticipating how reductions in body size will alter species interactions is critical to managing marine systems in an ecosystem context. Our results highlight the extent to which differences in size-frequency distributions can drive dramatic variation in the strength of interactions across narrow spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, our work suggests that species-specific estimates for the scaling of interaction strength with body size, rather than general size-scaling relationships, are necessary to quantitatively predict how reductions in body size will alter interaction strengths.

Multi-indicator 'state space' approach to assessing changes in shallow urban reef ecosystem health

Tracking changes in ecosystem health is an important objective for environmental managers, but is often limited by an understanding of what constitutes a "healthy" system and how to aggregate a range of health indicators into a single meaningful metric. We used a multi-indicator 'state space' approach to quantify changes over 13 years in reef ecosystem health in an urban area that has undergone intense housing development. Based on nine health indicators (macroalgal canopy length and biomass, macroalgal canopy and habitat functional diversity, mobile and predatory invertebrate density and size, total species and non-indigenous species richness), we found that the overall health of the reef community declined at five of the ten study sites. This decline was associated with a large collapse in the gastropod community, a shortening of macroalgal canopies and an increase in the number of non-indigenous species. While the cause of this decline and mechanisms responsible are not fully understood, the decline correlated with an increase in sediment cover on the reefs and warming ocean temperatures over the monitoring period. The proposed approach provides an objective and multifaceted quantitative assessment of ecosystem health that can be easily interpreted and communicated. These methods could be adapted to other ecosystem types to inform management decisions regarding future monitoring, conservation and restoration priorities to achieve greater ecosystem health.

Kelpwatch: A new visualization and analysis tool to explore kelp canopy dynamics reveals variable response to and recovery from marine heatwaves

Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.

Nutrient conditions determine the strength of herbivore-mediated stabilizing feedbacks in barrens

Abiotic environmental conditions can significantly influence the way species interact. In particular, plant-herbivore interactions can be substantially dependent on temperature and nutrients. The overall product of these relationships is critical for the fate and stability of vegetated ecosystems like marine forests. The last few decades have seen a rapid spread of barrens on temperate rocky reefs mainly as a result of overgrazing. The ecological feedbacks that characterize the barren state involve a different set of interactions than those occurring in vegetated habitats. Reversing these trends requires a proper understanding of the novel feedbacks and the conditions under which they operate. Here, we explored the role of a secondary herbivore in reinforcing the stability of barrens formed by sea urchin overgrazing under different nutrient conditions. Combining comparative and experimental studies in two Mediterranean regions characterized by contrasting nutrient conditions, we assessed: (i) if the creation of barren areas enhances limpet abundance, (ii) the size-specific grazing impact by limpets, and (iii) the ability of limpets alone to maintain barrens. Our results show that urchin overgrazing enhanced limpet abundance. The effects of limpet grazing varied with nutrient conditions, being up to five times more intense under oligotrophic conditions. Limpets were able to maintain barrens in the absence of sea urchins only under low-nutrient conditions, enhancing the stability of the depauperate state. Overall, our study suggests a greater vulnerability of subtidal forests in oligotrophic regions of the Mediterranean and demonstrates the importance of environment conditions in regulating feedbacks mediated by plant-herbivore interactions.

Sunflower sea star predation on urchins can facilitate kelp forest recovery

The recent collapse of predatory sunflower sea stars (Pycnopodia helianthoides) owing to sea star wasting disease (SSWD) is hypothesized to have contributed to proliferation of sea urchin barrens and losses of kelp forests on the North American west coast. We used experiments and a model to test whether restored Pycnopodia populations may help recover kelp forests through their consumption of nutritionally poor purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) typical of barrens. Pycnopodia consumed 0.68 S. purpuratus d-1, and our model and sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of recent Pycnopodia declines is consistent with urchin proliferation after modest sea urchin recruitment, and even small Pycnopodia recoveries could generally lead to lower densities of sea urchins that are consistent with kelp-urchin coexistence. Pycnopodia seem unable to chemically distinguish starved from fed urchins and indeed have higher predation rates on starved urchins owing to shorter handling times. These results highlight the importance of Pycnopodia in regulating purple sea urchin populations and maintaining healthy kelp forests through top-down control. The recovery of this important predator to densities commonly found prior to SSWD, whether through natural means or human-assisted reintroductions, may therefore be a key step in kelp forest restoration at ecologically significant scales.

Stable landings mask irreversible community reorganizations in an overexploited Mediterranean ecosystem

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts. Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes. We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes. We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community. Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management.

Understanding the depth limit of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa as a critical transition: Field and modeling evidence

Changes in light and sediment conditions can sometimes trigger abrupt regime shifts in seagrass meadows resulting in dramatic and unexpected die-offs of seagrass. Light attenuates rapidly with depth, and in seagrass systems with non-linear behaviours, can serve as a sharp boundary beyond which the meadow transitions to bare sand. Determining system behaviour is therefore essential to ensuring resilience is maintained and to prevent stubborn critical ecosystem transitions caused by declines in water quality. Here we combined field and modelling studies to explore the transition from meadow to bare sand in the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa at the limit of its depth distribution in a shallow, light-limited bay. We first describe the relationship between light availability and seagrass density along a depth gradient in an extensive unfragmented meadow (Alfacs bay, NE Spain). We then develop a simple mechanistic model to characterise system behaviour. In the field, we identified sharp decline in shoot density beyond a threshold of ∼1.9 m depth, shifting from a vegetated state to bare sand. The dynamic population model we developed assumes light-dependent growth and an inverse density-dependent mortality due to facilitation between shoots (mortality rate decreases as shoot density increases). The model closely tracked our empirical observations, and both the model and the field data showed signs of bistability. This strongly suggests that the depth limit of C. nodosa is a critical transition driven by photosynthetic light requirements. While the mechanisms still need to be confirmed with experimental evidence, recognizing the non-linear behaviour of C. nodosa meadows is vital not only in improving our understanding of light effects on seagrass dynamics, but also in managing shallow-water meadows. Given the shallow threshold (<2m), light-limited systems may experience significant and recalcitrant meadow retractions with even small changes in sediment and light conditions. Understanding the processes underlying meadow resilience can inform the maintenance and restoration of meadows worldwide.

The role of inputs of marine wrack and carrion in sandy-beach ecosystems: a global review

Sandy beaches are iconic interfaces that functionally link the ocean with the land via the flow of organic matter from the sea. These cross-ecosystem fluxes often comprise uprooted seagrass and dislodged macroalgae that can form substantial accumulations of detritus, termed 'wrack', on sandy beaches. In addition, the tissue of the carcasses of marine animals that regularly wash up on beaches form a rich food source ('carrion') for a diversity of scavenging animals. Here, we provide a global review of how wrack and carrion provide spatial subsidies that shape the structure and functioning of sandy-beach ecosystems (sandy beaches and adjacent surf zones), which typically have little in situ primary production. We also examine the spatial scaling of the influence of these processes across the broader land- and seascape, and identify key gaps in our knowledge to guide future research directions and priorities. Large quantities of detrital kelp and seagrass can flow into sandy-beach ecosystems, where microbial decomposers and animals process it. The rates of wrack supply and its retention are influenced by the oceanographic processes that transport it, the geomorphology and landscape context of the recipient beaches, and the condition, life history and morphological characteristics of the macrophyte taxa that are the ultimate source of wrack. When retained in beach ecosystems, wrack often creates hotspots of microbial metabolism, secondary productivity, biodiversity, and nutrient remineralization. Nutrients are produced during wrack breakdown, and these can return to coastal waters in surface flows (swash) and aquifers discharging into the subtidal surf. Beach-cast kelp often plays a key trophic role, being an abundant and preferred food source for mobile, semi-aquatic invertebrates that channel imported algal matter to predatory invertebrates, fish, and birds. The role of beach-cast marine carrion is likely to be underestimated, as it can be consumed rapidly by highly mobile scavengers (e.g. foxes, coyotes, raptors, vultures). These consumers become important vectors in transferring marine productivity inland, thereby linking marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Whilst deposits of organic matter on sandy-beach ecosystems underpin a range of ecosystem functions and services, they can be at variance with aesthetic perceptions resulting in widespread activities, such as 'beach cleaning and grooming'. This practice diminishes the energetic base of food webs, intertidal fauna, and biodiversity. Global declines in seagrass beds and kelp forests (linked to global warming) are predicted to cause substantial reductions in the amounts of marine organic matter reaching many beach ecosystems, likely causing flow-on effects for food webs and biodiversity. Similarly, future sea-level rise and increased storm frequency are likely to alter profoundly the physical attributes of beaches, which in turn can change the rates at which beaches retain and process the influxes of wrack and animal carcasses. Conservation of the multi-faceted ecosystem services that sandy beaches provide will increasingly need to encompass a greater societal appreciation and the safeguarding of ecological functions reliant on beach-cast organic matter on innumerable ocean shores worldwide.

Microclimate predicts kelp forest extinction in the face of direct and indirect marine heatwave effects

Marine heatwaves threaten the persistence of kelp forests globally. However, the observed responses of kelp forests to these events have been highly variable on local scales. Here, we synthesize distribution data from an environmentally diverse region to examine spatial patterns of canopy kelp persistence through an unprecedented marine heatwave. We show that, although often overlooked, temperature variation occurring at fine spatial scales (i.e., a few kilometers or less) can be a critical driver of kelp forest persistence during these events. Specifically, though kelp forests nearly all persisted toward the cool outer coast, inshore areas were >3°C warmer at the surface and experienced extensive kelp loss. Although temperatures remained cool at depths below the thermocline, kelp persistence in these thermal refugia was strongly constrained by biotic interactions, specifically urchin populations that increased during the heatwave and drove transitions to urchin barrens in deeper rocky habitat. Urchins were, however, largely absent from mixed sand and cobble benthos, leading to an unexpected association between bottom substrate and kelp forest persistence at inshore sites with warm surface waters. Our findings demonstrate both that warm microclimates increase the risk of habitat loss during marine heatwaves and that biotic interactions modified by these events will modulate the capacity of cool microclimates to serve as thermal refugia.

Environmental context dependency in species interactions

Ecological interactions are not uniform across time and can vary with environmental conditions. Yet, interactions among species are often measured with short-term controlled experiments whose outcomes can depend greatly on the particular environmental conditions under which they are performed. As an alternative, we use empirical dynamic modeling to estimate species interactions across a wide range of environmental conditions directly from existing long-term monitoring data. In our case study from a southern California kelp forest, we test whether interactions between multiple kelp and sea urchin species can be reliably reconstructed from time-series data and whether those interactions vary predictably in strength and direction across observed fluctuations in temperature, disturbance, and low-frequency oceanographic regimes. We show that environmental context greatly alters the strength and direction of species interactions. In particular, the state of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation seems to drive the competitive balance between kelp species, asserting bottom-up control on kelp ecosystem dynamics. We show the importance of specifically studying variation in interaction strength, rather than mean interaction outcomes, when trying to understand the dynamics of complex ecosystems. The significant context dependency in species interactions found in this study argues for a greater utilization of long-term data and empirical dynamic modeling in studies of the dynamics of other ecosystems.

Alternations in the foraging behaviour of a primary consumer drive patch transition dynamics in a temperate rocky reef ecosystem

Understanding the role of animal behaviour in linking individuals to ecosystems is central to advancing knowledge surrounding community structure, stability and transition dynamics. Using 22 years of long-term subtidal monitoring, we show that an abrupt outbreak of purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus), which occurred in 2014 in southern Monterey Bay, California, USA, was primarily driven by a behavioural shift, not by a demographic response (i.e. survival or recruitment). We then tracked the foraging behaviour of sea urchins for 3 years following the 2014 outbreak and found that behaviour is strongly associated with patch state (forest or barren) transition dynamics. Finally, in 2019, we observed a remarkable recovery of kelp forests at a deep rocky reef. We show that this recovery was associated with sea urchin movement from the deep reef to shallow water. These results demonstrate how changes in grazer behaviour can facilitate patch dynamics and dramatically restructure communities and ecosystems.

Global kelp forest restoration: past lessons, present status, and future directions

Kelp forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services are declining around the world. In response, marine managers are working to restore and counteract these declines. Kelp restoration first started in the 1700s in Japan and since then has spread across the globe. Restoration efforts, however, have been largely disconnected, with varying methodologies trialled by different actors in different countries. Moreover, a small subset of these efforts are 'afforestation', which focuses on creating new kelp habitat, as opposed to restoring kelp where it previously existed. To distil lessons learned over the last 300 years of kelp restoration, we review the history of kelp restoration (including afforestation) around the world and synthesise the results of 259 documented restoration attempts spanning from 1957 to 2020, across 16 countries, five languages, and multiple user groups. Our results show that kelp restoration projects have increased in frequency, have employed 10 different methodologies and targeted 17 different kelp genera. Of these projects, the majority have been led by academics (62%), have been conducted at sizes of less than 1 ha (80%) and took place over time spans of less than 2 years. We show that projects are most successful when they are located near existing kelp forests. Further, disturbance events such as sea-urchin grazing are identified as regular causes of project failure. Costs for restoration are historically high, averaging hundreds of thousands of dollars per hectare, therefore we explore avenues to reduce these costs and suggest financial and legal pathways for scaling up future restoration efforts. One key suggestion is the creation of a living database which serves as a platform for recording restoration projects, showcasing and/or re-analysing existing data, and providing updated information. Our work establishes the groundwork to provide adaptive and relevant recommendations on best practices for kelp restoration projects today and into the future.

Conspecific cues, not starvation, mediate barren urchin response to predation risk

Prey state and prey density mediate antipredator responses that can shift community structure and alter ecosystem processes. For example, well-nourished prey at low densities (i.e., prey with higher per capita predation risk) should respond strongly to predators. Although prey state and density often co-vary across habitats, it is unclear if prey responses to predator cues are habitat-specific. We used mesocosms to compare the habitat-specific responses of purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) to waterborne cues from predatory lobsters (Panulirus interruptus). We predicted that urchins from kelp forests (i.e., in well-nourished condition) tested at low densities typically observed in this habitat would respond more strongly to predation risk than barren urchins (i.e., in less nourished condition) tested at high densities typically observed in this habitat. Indeed, when tested at densities associated with respective habitats, urchins from forests, but not barrens, reduced kelp grazing by 69% when exposed to lobster risk cues. Barren urchins that were unresponsive to predator cues at natural, high densities suddenly responded strongly to lobster cues when conspecific densities were reduced. Strong responses of low densities of barren urchins persisted across feeding history (i.e. 0-64 days of starvation). This suggests that barren urchins can respond to predators but typically do not because of high conspecific densities. Because high densities of urchins in barrens should weaken the non-consumptive effects of lobsters, urchins in these habitats may continue to graze in the presence of predators thereby providing a feedback that maintains urchin barrens.

No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

Emergent effects of global change on consumption depend on consumers and their resources in marine systems

Understanding the effects of global change on species interactions is important for predicting emergent ecosystem changes. Although environmental change can have direct effects on consumers, it is unclear if consumption will change in any generalizable way when both the consumer and resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Using meta-analysis, we show high variability in consumption rates in response to ocean acidification and warming, indicating conclusions that suggest consumption will generally increase or decrease in a future ocean are premature. We also demonstrate how the interpretation is dependent on whether only the consumer or both the consumer and its resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Based on these findings, we provide a road map for future research in this area.

A better understanding of how environmental change will affect species interactions would significantly aid efforts to scale up predictions of near-future responses to global change from individuals to ecosystems. To address this need, we used meta-analysis to quantify the individual and combined effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on consumption rates of predators and herbivores in marine ecosystems. Although the primary studies demonstrated that these environmental variables can have direct effects on consumers, our analyses highlight high variability in consumption rates in response to OA and warming. This variability likely reflects differences in local adaptation among species, as well as important methodological differences. For example, our results suggest that exposure of consumers to OA reduces consumption rates on average, yet consumption rates actually increase when both consumers and their resource(s) are concurrently exposed to the same conditions. We hypothesize that this disparity is due to increased vulnerability of prey or resource(s) in conditions of OA that offset declines in consumption. This hypothesis is supported by an analysis demonstrating clear declines in prey survival in studies that exposed only prey to future OA conditions. Our results illustrate how simultaneous OA and warming produce complex outcomes when species interact. Researchers should further explore other potential sources of variation in response, as well as the prey-driven component of any changes in consumption and the potential for interactive effects of OA and warming.

Detrital supply suppresses deforestation to maintain healthy kelp forest ecosystems

Herbivores can reach extraordinary abundances in many ecosystems. When herbivore abundance is high, heavy grazing can severely defoliate primary producers and, in some cases, even drive ecosystem to undergo regime shifts from a high productivity state to a denuded, low productivity state. While the phenomenon of herbivore-driven regime shifts is well documented, we only partially understand the mechanisms underlying these events. Here, we combine herbivory experiments with 21 years of long-term monitoring data of kelp forest ecosystems to test the hypothesis that herbivores drive regime shifts when herbivory exceeds primary production. To test this hypothesis, we quantified how the foraging habits of an important group of marine herbivores-sea urchins-change with increases in sea urchin biomass and trigger regime shifts to a foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera). Using experiments, we quantified how the grazing capacity of urchins increases as urchin biomass increases, then we combined these estimates of urchin grazing capacity with estimates of kelp production to predict when and where urchin grazing capacity exceeded kelp production. When grazing capacity exceeded kelp production, sea urchins caused a 50-fold reduction in giant kelp biomass. Our findings support the hypothesis that the balance between herbivory and production underlies herbivore-driven regime shifts in Southern California kelp forests and provides insight into when and where urchins are likely to force regime shifts in kelp forest ecosystems.

Phylogeography of a canopy-forming kelp, Eisenia bicyclis (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae), based on a genome-wide sequencing analysis

Analyses of phylogeographic patterns and genetic diversity provide fundamental information for the management and conservation of species. However, little is published about these patterns in Japanese kelp species. In this study, we conducted phylogeographic analyses of a canopy-forming kelp, Eisenia bicyclis, based on genome-wide SNPs identified by ddRAD-seq. We obtained 1,299 SNPs for 76 samples from nine localities across the distribution. STRUCTURE, NeighborNet, and discriminant analysis of principal components consistently showed high genetic differentiation among the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and Sea of Japan coastal regions. Relatively strong gene flow was detected only within populations in the Eastern Pacific and in the Sea of Japan. Genetic diversity and genetic uniqueness were high in the Central Pacific and low in the Sea of Japan. These results suggest that there were at least three independent refugia corresponding to the three regions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, relatively larger populations in the Central Pacific and smaller populations in the Sea of Japan have been maintained in the demographic history from before the LGM to the present. These phylogeographic histories were supported by an Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis. From a conservation genetics perspective, the loss of southern populations in the Central Pacific would greatly reduce the total genetic diversity of the species. Southern populations in the Sea of Japan, which have relatively low genetic diversity, may be highly vulnerable to environmental change, such as heat waves and increased feeding. Therefore, careful monitoring and conservation are needed in the two regions.

Metabolic plasticity improves lobster's resilience to ocean warming but not to climate-driven novel species interactions

Marine species not only suffer from direct effects of warming oceans but also indirectly via the emergence of novel species interactions. While metabolic adjustments can be crucial to improve resilience to warming, it is largely unknown if this improves performance relative to novel competitors. We aimed to identify if spiny lobsters—inhabiting a global warming and species re-distribution hotspot—align their metabolic performance to improve resilience to both warming and novel species interactions. We measured metabolic and escape capacity of two Australian spiny lobsters, resident Jasus edwardsii and the range-shifting Sagmariasus verreauxi, acclimated to current average—(14.0 °C), current summer—(17.5 °C) and projected future summer—(21.5 °C) habitat temperatures. We found that both species decreased their standard metabolic rate with increased acclimation temperature, while sustaining their scope for aerobic metabolism. However, the resident lobster showed reduced anaerobic escape performance at warmer temperatures and failed to match the metabolic capacity of the range-shifting lobster. We conclude that although resident spiny lobsters optimise metabolism in response to seasonal and future temperature changes, they may be unable to physiologically outperform their range-shifting competitors. This highlights the critical importance of exploring direct as well as indirect effects of temperature changes to understand climate change impacts.

Sea urchin harvest inside marine protected areas: an opportunity to investigate the effects of exploitation where trophic upgrading is achieved

Background

Marine protected areas (MPAs) usually have both positive effects of protection for the fisheries' target species and indirect negative effects for sea urchins. Moreover, often in MPAs sea urchin human harvest is restricted, but allowed. This study is aimed at estimating the effect of human harvest of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus within MPAs, where fish exploitation is restricted and its density is already controlled by a higher natural predation risk. The prediction we formulated was that the lowest densities of commercial sea urchins would be found where human harvest is allowed and where the harvest is restricted, compared to where the harvest is forbidden.

Methods

At this aim, a collaborative database gained across five MPAs in Sardinia (Western Mediterranean, Italy) and areas outside was gathered collecting sea urchin abundance and size data in a total of 106 sites at different degrees of sea urchin exploitation: no, restricted and unrestricted harvest sites (NH, RH and UH, respectively). Furthermore, as estimates made in past monitoring efforts (since 2005) were available for 75 of the sampled sites, for each of the different levels of exploitation, the rate of variation in the total sea urchin density was also estimated.

Results

Results have highlighted that the lowest sea urchin total and commercial density was found in RH sites, likely for the cumulative effects of human harvest and natural predation. The overall rate of change in sea urchin density over time indicates that only NH conditions promoted the increase of sea urchin abundance and that current local management of the MPAs has driven towards an important regression of populations, by allowing the harvest. Overall, results suggest that complex mechanisms, including synergistic effects between natural biotic interactions and human pressures, may occur on sea urchin populations and the assessment of MPA effects on P. lividus populations would be crucial to guide management decisions on regulating harvest permits. Overall, the need to ban sea urchin harvest in the MPAs to avoid extreme reductions is encouraged, as inside the MPAs sea urchin populations are likely under natural predation pressures for the trophic upgrading.