Evidence that implicit assumptions of 'no evolution' of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

Assessing and correcting neighborhood socioeconomic spatial sampling biases in citizen science mosquito data collection

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors are facilitating the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, heightening the importance of vector surveillance and control. Citizen science is proving to be an effective tool to track mosquito populations, but methods are needed to detect and account for small scale sampling biases in citizen science surveillance. In this article we combine two types of traditional mosquito surveillance records with data from the Mosquito Alert citizen science system to explore the ways in which the socioeconomic characteristics of urban neighborhoods result in sampling biases in citizen scientists' mosquito reports, while also shaping the spatial distribution of mosquito populations themselves. We use Barcelona, Spain, as an example, and focus on Aedes albopictus, an invasive vector species of concern worldwide. Our results suggest citizen scientists' sampling effort is focused more in Barcelona's lower and middle income census tracts than in its higher income ones, whereas Ae. albopictus populations are concentrated in the city's upper-middle income tracts. High resolution estimates of the spatial distribution of Ae. albopictus risk can be improved by controlling for citizen scientists' sampling effort, making it possible to provide better insights for efficiently targeting control efforts. Our methodology can be replicated in other cities faced with vector mosquitoes to improve public health responses to mosquito-borne diseases, which impose massive burdens on communities worldwide.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: Aedes sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis, a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in acute heat tolerance, which phenotypically trades off with tolerance to prolonged heat exposure. A simple evolutionary model based on our data shows that the estimated maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance typically exceeds that of projected climate warming under idealized conditions. Our findings indicate that natural mosquito populations may have the potential to track projected warming via genetic adaptation. Prior climate-based projections may thus underestimate the range of mosquito and mosquito-borne disease distributions under future climate conditions.

Unexpected behavioural adaptation of yellow fever mosquitoes in response to high temperatures

Temperature is a major ecological driver of mosquito-borne diseases as it influences the life-history of both the mosquito and the pathogen harboured within it. Understanding the mosquitoes' thermal biology is essential to inform risk prediction models of such diseases. Mosquitoes can respond to temperatures by microhabitat selection through thermal preference. However, it has not yet been considered that mosquitoes are likely to adapt to changing temperatures, for example during climate change, and alter their preference over evolutionary time. We investigated this by rearing six cohorts of the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti at two temperatures (24 °C, 30 °C) for 20 generations and used these cohorts to explicitly separate the effects of long-term evolution and within-generation acclimation on their thermal preferences in a thermal gradient of 20-35 °C. We found that warm-evolved mosquitoes spent 31.5% less time at high temperatures, which affects their efficiency as a vector. This study reveals the complex interplay of experimental evolution, rearing temperatures, and thermal preference in Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. It highlights the significance of incorporating mosquito microhabitat selection in disease transmission models, especially in the context of climate change.

Phenotypic adaptation to temperature in the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti

Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito-borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, "one size fits all" models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. First, to explore whether there is any difference in existing thermal response of mosquitoes between populations, we used a thermal knockdown assay to examine five populations of Ae. aegypti collected from climatically diverse locations in Mexico, together with a long-standing laboratory strain. We identified significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance between populations. Next, to explore whether such variation can be generated by differences in temperature, we conducted an experimental passage study by establishing six replicate lines from a single field-derived population of Ae. aegypti from Mexico, maintaining half at 27°C and the other half at 31°C. After 10 generations, we found a significant difference in mosquito performance, with the lines maintained under elevated temperatures showing greater thermal tolerance. Moreover, these differences in thermal tolerance translated to shifts in the thermal performance curves for multiple life-history traits, leading to differences in overall fitness. Together, these novel findings provide compelling evidence that Ae. aegypti populations can and do differ in thermal response, suggesting that simplified thermal performance models might be insufficient for predicting the effects of climate on vector-borne disease transmission.

Comparative genomics suggests local adaptations in the invasive small hive beetle

Invasive species are a major driver of ecological and environmental changes that affect human health, food security, and natural biodiversity. The success and impact of biological invasions depend on adaptations to novel abiotic and biotic selective pressures. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying adaptations in invasive parasitic species are inadequately understood. Small hive beetles, Aethina tumida, are parasites of bee nests. Originally endemic to sub-Saharan Africa, they are now found nearly globally. Here, we investigated the molecular bases of the adaptations to novel environments underlying their invasion routes. Genomes of historic and recent adults A. tumida from both the endemic and introduced ranges were compared. Analysis of gene-environment association identified 3049 candidate loci located in 874 genes. Functional annotation showed a significant bias toward genes linked to growth and reproduction. One of the genes from the apoptosis pathway encodes an "ecdysone-related protein," which is a crucial regulator in controlling body size in response to environmental cues for holometabolous insects during cell death and renewal. Genes whose proteins regulate organ size, ovary activation, and oviposition were also detected. Functions of these enriched pathways parallel behavioral differences between introduced and native A. tumida populations, which may reflect patterns of local adaptation. The results considerably improve our understanding of the underlying mechanisms and ecological factors driving adaptations of invasive species. Deep functional investigation of these identified loci will help clarify the mechanisms of local adaptation in A. tumida.

Do tigers hunt during the day? Diel activity of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae), in urban and suburban habitats of North America

Background

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) impacts human outdoor activity because of its aggressive biting behavior, and as a major vector of mosquito-borne diseases, it is also of public health importance. Although most mosquito species exhibit crepuscular activity by primarily host seeking at dawn and dusk, Ae. albopictus has been traditionally characterized as a diurnal or day-biting mosquito. With the global expansion and increased involvement of Ae. albopictus in mosquito-borne diseases, it is imperative to elucidate the diel activity of this species, particularly in newly invaded areas.

Methodology and principal findings

Human sweep netting and carbon dioxide-baited rotator traps were used to evaluate the diel activity of Ae. albopictus in two study sites. Both trapping methods were used in New Jersey’s Mercer County, USA (temperate/urban), while only human sweep netting was used in Florida’s Volusia County, USA (subtropical/suburban). Human sweep netting was performed to determine adult mosquito activity at Sunrise, Solar Noon, Sunset, and Lunar Midnight. Because New Jersey is in a temperate area, diel activity was investigated during the early season (3–19 July), peak season (25 July-19 September), and late season (22 September- 22 October). Aedes albopictus showed the highest activity during peak and late seasons at Solar Noon (P < 0.05). At Sunrise and Sunset during the peak season, Ae. albopictus activity was similar. Lunar Midnight activity was significantly lower than Sunrise and Solar Noon (P < 0.05) but was similar to that of Sunset. In the late season, the highest activity was observed during Solar Noon while the least activity was observed during Sunrise and Lunar Midnight (P<0.05). Bottle rotator traps used in conjunction with the human sweep net technique exhibited similar results. Seasonal activity was not differentiated in Florida due to the consistent subtropical climate. The highest adult activity was observed at Sunrise using human sweep netting, but it was not significantly different from Solar Noon and Sunset. The lowest adult activity was observed at Lunar Midnight; however, it was not significantly different from Solar Noon and Sunset. These results provide evidence that the diel activity of Ae. albopictus, contrary to the common perception of its diurnal activity, is much more varied.

Conclusion/Significance

Involvement of Ae. albopictus in the transmission of debilitating mosquito-borne pathogens such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika virus, coupled with its affinity to thrive in human peridomestic environments, substantiates that our findings have global implications in areas where Ae. albopictus populations established. It also highlights the importance of behavioral studies of vector species which will not only help mosquito control professionals plan the timing of their control efforts but also provides empirical evidence against conventional wisdoms that may unjustly persist within public health stewards.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an invasive mosquito which is now established in at least 40 states in the USA. Lack of efficient surveillance and control methods against Ae. albopictus, in addition to human-aided accidental transportations, have played a great role in its rapid expansion. Although surveillance measures are becoming more systematic and effective, control of this species still poses a great challenge. Aedes albopictus is difficult to control in the larval stage because it primarily develops in artificial containers that are widespread in peridomestic habitats. These habitats are not only ubiquitous in these environments, they are also cryptic, inaccessible, and extremely difficult to control. Therefore, control of Ae. albopictus in these environments often relies on adult control measures which utilize insecticides dispersed through ultra-low volume equipment as a cold aerosol space spray. These adulticide applications are often conducted at night against endemic mosquito species which are primarily active between dawn and dusk. However, since Ae. albopictus has been traditionally classified as a day-biting mosquito, mosquito control specialists have had doubts about the efficacy of a nocturnal application against a diurnally active mosquito. These uncertainties about intervention efforts become even more important during public health outbreaks of mosquito-borne pathogens such as chikungunya, dengue, or Zika viruses when protection of public health is of paramount importance in peridomestic habitats. Our investigations provide evidence that Ae. albopictus exhibits activity throughout the day and night and that nighttime adulticide applications may indeed be effective against this species, and should not be disregarded.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.

Population analysis reveals genetic structure of an invasive agricultural thrips pest related to invasion of greenhouses and suitable climatic space

Biological invasions of pests into climatically unsuitable areas can be facilitated by human-regulated environments, in which case there may be an impact on genetic structure through population processes and/or adaptation. Here, we investigated the population genetic structure of an invasive agricultural pest, Thrips palmi, in China, which has expanded its distribution range through using greenhouses. Early invaded populations showed a relatively higher level of genetic diversity than recently expanded greenhouse populations. Strong population genetic structure corresponded to a pattern of isolation by distance, with no recent gene flow and low historical gene flow among populations, reflecting limited ongoing dispersal. A genetic signature of population expansion was detected in early invaded populations and three northern populations from greenhouses, suggesting that the greenhouse environments facilitated expansion of this species. Redundancy analysis showed that the independent effects of environment and geography could explain 51.68% and 32.06% of the genetic variance, respectively. These findings point to climate- and greenhouse-related spatial expansion, with the potential for adaptation by T. palmi. They emphasize the contribution of human-regulated environments on the successes of this invasive species, a situation likely to apply to other invasive species that use greenhouse environments.

Landscape and Environmental Factors Influencing Stage Persistence and Abundance of the Bamboo Mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Diptera: Culicidae), across an Altitudinal Gradient

The bamboo mosquito, Tripteroides bambusa (Yamada) (Diptera: Culicidae), is a common insect across East Asia. Several studies have looked at the ecology of Tr. bambusa developmental stages separately, but little is known about the factors associated with the persistence (how often) and abundance (how many individuals) of Tr. bambusa stages simultaneously studied across a heterogeneous landscape. Here, we ask what environmental and landscape factors are associated with the persistence and abundance of Tr. bambusa stages across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki City, Japan. During a season-long study we counted 8065 (7297 4th instar larvae, 670 pupae and 98 adults) Tr. bambusa mosquitoes. We found that persistence and abundance patterns were not associated among stages, with the exception of large (4th instar) and small (1st to 3rd instars) larvae persistence, which were positively correlated. We also found that relative humidity was associated with the persistence of Tr. bambusa aquatic stages, being positively associated with large and small larvae, but negatively with pupae. Similarly, landscape aspect changed from positive to negative the sign of its association with Tr. bambusa pupae and adults, highlighting that environmental associations change with life stage. Meanwhile, Tr. bambusa abundance patterns were negatively impacted by more variable microenvironments, as measured by the negative impacts of kurtosis and standard deviation (SD) of environmental variables, indicating Tr. bambusa thrives in stable environments, suggesting this mosquito species has a finely grained response to environmental changes.

Climate, human influence and the distribution limits of the invasive European earwig, Forficula auricularia, in Australia

BACKGROUND

By modelling species-environment relationships of pest species, it is possible to understand potential limits to their distributions when they invade new regions, and their likely continued spread. The European earwig, Forficula auricularia, is a non-native invasive species in Australia that has been in the country for over 170 years. However, in the last few decades it has invaded new areas. Unlike in other countries, F. auricularia is a pest species of grain production in Australia. In this study we detail the Australian distribution of this species, adding new samples focused around grain-growing regions. Using this information, we build global species distribution models for F. auricularia to better understand species-environment relationships.

RESULTS

Our models indicate that the distribution of F. auricularia is strongly associated with temperate through to semi-arid environments, a high winter rainfall and pronounced temperature seasonality. We identified regions that hold suitable, but as yet vacant, niche space for Australian populations, suggesting further potential for range expansion. Beyond climate, an index describing human influence on the landscape was important to understand the distribution limits of this pest. We identified regions where there was suitable climate space, but which F. auricularia has not occupied, probably due to low levels of human impact.

CONCLUSION

Modelling the global distribution of a non-native pest species aided understanding of the regional distribution limits within Australia and highlighted the usefulness of human impact measures for modelling globally invasive insect species. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Influence of invasion history on rapid morphological divergence across island populations of an exotic bird

There is increasing evidence that exotic populations may rapidly differentiate from those in their native range and that differences also arise among populations within the exotic range. Using morphological and DNA-based analyses, we document the extent of trait divergence among native North American and exotic Hawaiian populations of northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis). Furthermore, using a combination of historical records and DNA-based analyses, we evaluate the role of founder effects in producing observed trait differences. We measured and compared key morphological traits across northern cardinal populations in the native and exotic ranges to assess whether trait divergence across the Hawaiian Islands, where this species was introduced between 1929 and 1931, reflected observed variation across native phylogeographic clades in its native North America. We used and added to prior phylogenetic analyses based on a mitochondrial locus to identify the most likely native source clade(s) for the Hawaiian cardinal populations. We then used Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to evaluate the role of founder effects in producing the observed differences in body size and bill morphology across native and exotic populations. We found cardinal populations on the Hawaiian Islands had morphological traits that diverged substantially across islands and overlapped the trait space of all measured native North American clades. The phylogeographic analysis identified the eastern North American clade (C. cardinalis cardinalis) as the most likely and sole native source for all the Hawaiian cardinal populations. The ABC analyses supported written accounts of the cardinal's introduction that indicate the original 300 cardinals shipped to Hawaii were simultaneously and evenly released across Hawaii, Kauai, and Oahu. Populations on each island likely experienced bottlenecks followed by expansion, with cardinals from the island of Hawaii eventually colonizing Maui unaided. Overall, our results suggest that founder effects had limited impact on morphological trait divergence of exotic cardinal populations in the Hawaiian archipelago, which instead reflect postintroduction events.

Density Dependence, Landscape, and Weather Impacts on Aquatic Aedes japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Along an Urban Altitudinal Gradient

The Asian Bush Mosquito, Aedes (Finlaya) japonicus japonicus (Theobald) is an important globally invasive mosquito species. In comparison with other major invasive mosquitoes, relatively little is known about Ae. j. japonicus population dynamics in the field. Here, we present results from a 54-biweek long study of Ae. j. japonicus abundance in ovitraps set across the altitudinal gradient of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan. Spatially, we found that Ae. j. japonicus fourth instar larvae (Aj4il) were more abundant at the base and top of Mt. Konpira and in ovitraps with more platykurtic water temperature (WT) distributions. In contrast, we found that temporally Aj4il were more abundant when ovitrap WT was more leptokurtic with 2 weeks of lag, and with high relative humidity SD with 2 months of lag. We also found that Aj4il were unlikely present when ovitrap WT was below 12.41°C. Parameter estimates for the Ricker model suggested that Ae. j. japonicus population growth was under density-dependence regulation, with a stable population dynamics whose fluctuations were associated with changes in ovitrap WT kurtosis and demographic stochasticity. Our results suggest that Aj4il abundance is more sensitive to temperature changes in kurtosis than mean values, potentially limiting the predictive ability of Ae. j. japonicus niche models based on the increase of average temperatures with global warming, and suggesting this mosquito species has a relatively coarse-grained response to temperature changes.

Rapid adaptation of invertebrate pests to climatic stress?

There is surprisingly little information on adaptive responses of pests and disease vectors to climatic stresses even though the short generation times and large population sizes associated with pests make rapid adaptation likely. Most evidence of adaptive differentiation has been obtained from geographic comparisons and these can directly or indirectly indicate rates of adaptation where historical data on invasions are available. There is very little information on adaptive shifts in pests detected through molecular comparisons even though the genomes of many pests are now available and can help to identify markers underlying adaptation. While the limited evidence available points to frequent rapid adaptation that can affect pest and disease vector control, constraints to adaptation are also evident and a predictive framework around the likelihood and limits of rapid adaptation is required.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Globally invasive, withdrawing at home: Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus facing the rise of Aedes flavopictus

It has been suggested that climate change may have facilitated the global expansion of invasive disease vectors, since several species have expanded their range as temperatures have warmed. Here, we present results from observations on two major global invasive mosquito vectors (Diptera: Culicidae), Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Aedes japonicus (Theobald), across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira, Nagasaki, Japan, a location within their native range, where Aedes flavopictus Yamada, formerly a rare species, has now become dominant. Spatial abundance patterns of the three species suggest that temperature is an important factor influencing their adult distribution across the altitudinal range of Mt. Konpira. Temporal abundance patterns, by contrast, were associated with rainfall and showed signals of density-dependent regulation in the three species. The spatial and temporal analysis of abundance patterns showed that Ae. flavopictus and Ae. albopictus were negatively associated, even when accounting for differential impacts of weather and other environmental factors in their co-occurrence patterns. Our results highlight a contingency in the expansion of invasive vectors, the potential emergence of changes in their interactions with species in their native communities, and raise the question of whether these changes might be useful to predict the emergence of future invasive vectors.

The Arrival of the Northern House Mosquito Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) on Newfoundland's Avalon Peninsula

Culex pipiens L., the northern house mosquito, is the primary vector of West Nile virus to humans along the east coast of North America and thus the focus of much study. This species is an urban container-breeding mosquito whose close contact with humans and flexibility in host choice has led to its classification as a "bridge vector"; that is, it is thought to move zoonotic diseases to humans from vertebrate reservoirs. While this invasive species is now well documented in its established range, which expanded in 2001 to include Canada, the existence of populations of this species along the fringes of its range are less well known. Here we report, using morphological and genetic techniques, the existence of two locations where Cx. pipiens exists in Newfoundland in both expected and unexpected sites based on projected habitat suitability on the island.

Geographic variation in the response of Culex pipiens life history traits to temperature

Background

Climate change is predicted to alter the transmission of many vector-borne pathogens. The quantitative impact of climate change is usually estimated by measuring the temperature-performance relationships for a single population of vectors, and then mapping this relationship across a range of temperatures or locations. However, life history traits of different populations often differ significantly. Specifically, performance across a range of temperatures is likely to vary due to local adaptation to temperature and other factors. This variation can cause spatial variation in pathogen transmission and will influence the impact of climate change on the transmission of vector-borne pathogens.

Methods

We quantified variation in life history traits for four populations of Culex pipiens (Linnaeus) mosquitoes. The populations were distributed along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients in the eastern United States that spanned ~3 °C in mean summer temperature, which is similar to the magnitude of global warming expected in the next 3–5 decades. We measured larval and adult survival, development rate, and biting rate at six temperatures between 16 and 35 °C, in a common garden experiment.

Results

Temperature had strong and consistent non-linear effects on all four life history traits for all four populations. Adult female development time decreased monotonically with increasing temperature, with the largest decrease at cold temperatures. Daily juvenile and adult female survival also decreased with increasing temperature, but the largest decrease occurred at higher temperatures. There was significant among-population variation in the thermal response curves for the four life history traits across the four populations, with larval survival, adult survival, and development rate varying up to 45, 79, and 84 % among populations, respectively. However, variation was not correlated with local temperatures and thus did not support the local thermal adaptation hypothesis.

Conclusion

These results suggest that the impact of climate change on vector-borne disease will be more variable than previous predictions, and our data provide an estimate of this uncertainty. In addition, the variation among populations that we observed will shape the response of vectors to changing climates.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1402-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.

Modelling Anopheles gambiae s.s. Population Dynamics with Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival

Climate change and global warming are emerging as important threats to human health, particularly through the potential increase in vector- and water-borne diseases. Environmental variables are known to affect substantially the population dynamics and abundance of the poikilothermic vectors of disease, but the exact extent of this sensitivity is not well established. Focusing on malaria and its main vector in Africa, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, we present a set of novel mathematical models of climate-driven mosquito population dynamics motivated by experimental data suggesting that in An. gambiae, mortality is temperature and age dependent. We compared the performance of these models to that of a "standard" model ignoring age dependence. We used a longitudinal dataset of vector abundance over 36 months in sub-Saharan Africa for comparison between models that incorporate age dependence and one that does not, and observe that age-dependent models consistently fitted the data better than the reference model. This highlights that including age dependence in the vector component of mosquito-borne disease models may be important to predict more reliably disease transmission dynamics. Further data and studies are needed to enable improved fitting, leading to more accurate and informative model predictions for the An. gambiae malaria vector as well as for other disease vectors.